"Changes Unseen in a Century" from the Perspective of Economic Long Waves

In June 2018, Xi Jinping pointed out at the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs: "At present, China is in the best period of development since modern times, while the world is undergoing changes unseen in a century [1]1 "Changes unseen in a century" (百年未有之大变局) is a key thesis put forward by Xi Jinping, referring to the profound and rapid transformations in the international landscape, power dynamics, and development paradigms.; the two are interwoven and mutually reinforcing." [1]1 "Changes unseen in a century" (百年未有之大变局) is a key thesis put forward by Xi Jinping, referring to the profound and rapid transformations in the international landscape, power dynamics, and development paradigms. "The Party Central Committee's integrated planning of the strategic大局 of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the changes unseen in a century in the world" [2]2 "Two overall situations" (两个大局): the strategic overall situation of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the changes unseen in a century in the world. has become the overarching background of the era for advancing the cause of Chinese-path modernization. How is this important thesis to be understood? Academic research mainly focuses on the temporal beginning and end of the "great changes," their main features, and their impact on China, and it is generally believed that further research on the theoretical connotation and practical relevance of "changes unseen in a century" is needed.

2018年6月，习近平在中央外事工作会议上指出：“当前，我国处于近代以来最好的发展时期，世界处于百年未有之大变局，两者同步交织、相互激荡。”[1]“党中央统筹中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局”,[2]已经成为推进中国式现代化事业的时代大背景。如何认识这一重要论断?学界研究主要聚焦于“大变局”的时间起止、主要特征及其对中国的影响等方面，并且普遍认为需要进一步加强对“百年未有之大变局”理论内涵和现实针对性等方面的研究。

We believe that this thesis is a fundamental understanding of the current global economic development trend. In December 2016, Xi Jinping pointed out in a speech at the Central Economic Work Conference: "To study the economic situation, one must look forward and backward, 'infer the future from the past, and see the hidden from the visible,' [3]3 "Infer the future from the past, and see the hidden from the visible" (以往知来，以见知隐) is an ancient Chinese maxim emphasizing historical analysis. proceeding from the long cycle of economic development and the broad background of global politics and the economy." [5]5 Taylorism: a scientific management approach developed by Frederick W. Taylor in the early 20th century. The theory of economic long waves [4]4 "Economic long waves" (经济长波) also known as Kondratieff waves, are a theory of long-term cyclical economic fluctuations. is a relatively effective analytical tool for "inferring the future from the past and seeing the hidden from the visible." It can provide a new perspective for our scientific understanding of the "century-long changes," help accurately judge and grasp the current development trend of the global economy and the specific paradigm of human socioeconomic development, and benefit China in better responding to the century-long changes.

我们认为，这一论断是对当前全球经济发展态势的基本认识。2016年12月，习近平在中央经济工作会议的讲话中指出：“研究经济形势，必须瞻前顾后，‘以往知来，以见知隐’,从经济发展长周期和全球政治经济大背景出发加以认识。”[5]经济长波理论是一个较为有效的“以往知来，以见知隐”的分析工具，可以为我们科学理解“百年变局”提供新的视角，准确判断和把握全球经济当前发展态势和人类社会经济发展的具体范式，对我国更好应对百年变局不无裨益。

I. The Evolution and Current Position of the Global Economy from the Perspective of Economic Long Waves

一、经济长波视角下全球经济的演变过程和当前态势

Economic long waves refer to cyclical economic fluctuations spanning approximately 50 years, comprising both an upswing and a downswing. The earliest academic study of this can be traced back to the British scholar Hyde Clarke in 1847. Systematic research on economic long waves began in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. In the 1920s, the Soviet scholar Nikolai D. Kondratieff conducted empirical research on the long cycles of the capitalist economy and proposed what was later named the "Kondratieff cycle" by Joseph A. Schumpeter. Research on economic long waves exhibits the characteristic of being "counter-cyclical" to economic operation. Over the past half-century, the neo-Schumpeterian school and Marxist scholars have advanced the theory of economic long waves by innovating research methods. [6]6 Fordism: a production system based on assembly-line mass production, named after Henry Ford. Summarizing previous research, we believe that starting from the fundamental movement of productive forces and relations of production, and constructing an analytical framework that emphasizes the fundamental role of productive forces while accommodating technological revolution and institutional change, is a viable approach to studying economic long waves. By reviewing the development trajectory of economic long waves as manifested in the unfolding process of the Industrial Revolution, we can understand the evolutionary process and current position of the century-long changes in the global economy.

经济长波是指大致50年时间跨幅的周期性经济波动，包含升降两个波段。学界对其最早的研究可以追溯到1847年英国学者海德·克拉克(Hyde Clarke),19世纪末20世纪初学界对经济长波开始了系统的研究，20世纪20年代苏联学者尼古拉·康德拉季耶夫(Nikolai D. Kondratieff)对资本主义经济长周期进行实证研究，提出了后来由约瑟夫·熊彼特(Joseph A. Schumpeter)命名的“康德拉季耶夫周期”。学界对于经济长波的研究呈现出与经济运行“逆周期”的特征，近半个世纪以来，新熊彼特学派和马克思主义学者通过革新研究方法，推进了经济长波理论的发展。[6]总结前人的研究，我们认为从生产力与生产关系的基本运动出发，建构一个重视生产力的根本作用，兼容技术革命和制度变革的分析框架，是研究经济长波的可选之举。通过梳理工业革命展开过程所呈现出来的经济长波的发展脉络，可以知道全球经济百年变局的演变过程和当前方位。

1. The Evolution of the Global Economy from the Perspective of Long Waves

1.长波视角下全球经济的演变过程

Human society has so far experienced three consecutive Industrial Revolutions: the first Industrial Revolution, which began in the 1760s and ended in 1870; the second Industrial Revolution, which began in 1870 and ended in the 1970s; and the third Industrial Revolution, which began in the 1970s. Each Industrial Revolution lasted approximately a century, unfolding as two Kondratieff long waves following a "W"-shaped trajectory.

人类社会迄今为止发生了前后衔接的三次工业革命，分别是从18世纪60年代开始到1870年结束的第一次工业革命、从1870年开始到20世纪70年代结束的第二次工业革命，以及从20世纪70年代开始的第三次工业革命。每次工业革命持续时间大致在百年左右，展开过程表现为两次康德拉季耶夫长波，呈“W”型走势。

Phasing is a basic characteristic of economic long waves. Each Industrial Revolution roughly goes through four stages: introduction, expansion, synergy, and maturity. [6]6 Fordism: a production system based on assembly-line mass production, named after Henry Ford. The basic paradigm of the unfolding process of each Industrial Revolution is as follows: It originates in a period when the fruits of the previous Industrial Revolution are exhausted and the economy is in a long-wave downswing of depression. This is a transitional period in which the old and new techno-economic paradigms succeed one another, belonging to the introduction stage of the Industrial Revolution. It is characterized by slow growth in total output and fierce structural adjustment in society. As new technologies diffuse and leading industries develop, the expansion stage follows, characterized by the rapid development of emerging industries driven by capital, which pushes the economy into a long-wave upswing. However, the failure of other industries, technologies, and organizational systems to keep pace effectively leads to structural imbalances, forcing the Industrial Revolution from an expansionary long wave into a depressive long wave. At this point, the Industrial Revolution enters the synergy stage, characterized by structural remodeling. During this period, the economic-technological sphere and the social-institutional sphere continuously couple, eventually restoring structural balance to social production. Once a new balance structure is established, the Industrial Revolution enters the maturity stage, a golden age of economic growth in an appropriate manner, ushering in an expansionary long wave. But simultaneously, this is also the process in which the development momentum of the "techno-economic paradigm" of that Industrial Revolution is fully released and eventually exhausted in the next stage, gestating the "embryo" of the next Industrial Revolution. The first Industrial Revolution began with the original industrialization phase, while the second Industrial Revolution was triggered by the enormous demand generated by the first Industrial Revolution for the entire industrial "energy-power-transport" system and the unprecedented demand for large-scale production of heavy industrial products and materials.

阶段性是经济长波的基本特征，历次工业革命大致经历导入期、拓展期、协同期和成熟期四个阶段。[6]每次工业革命展开过程的基本范式是：发端于上一次工业革命的成果消耗殆尽从而经济处于萧条长波阶段，这是一个新旧技术经济范式接续交替的过渡时期，属于工业革命的导入期，表现为总产出增长缓慢，社会处于激烈的结构调整阶段。随着新兴技术的扩散以及先导产业不断发展，拓展期随之而来，表现为新兴产业在资本推动下快速发展并带动经济进入扩张长波，但其他产业和技术以及组织制度未能有效跟进会导致结构失衡，从而迫使工业革命由扩张长波进入萧条长波。此时工业革命进入协同期，表现为结构重塑。这一时期，经济技术领域和社会制度领域不断耦合，最终使社会生产再次达到结构平衡。随着新的平衡结构建立起来，工业革命进入成熟期，这是一个经济以一种合适方式实现增长的黄金时代，经济进入扩张长波；但同时，这也是该次工业革命“技术—经济范式”的发展动能充分释放，并最终在下一个阶段走向衰竭的过程，其中孕育着下一次工业革命的“胚胎”。第一次工业革命肇始于原生工业化阶段，第二次工业革命则是由于第一次工业革命对整个工业“能源—动力—运输”的巨大需求，以及对重工业产品和材料空前的规模化生产需求所触发。

Based on the above paradigm, we can trace the development trajectory of the three Industrial Revolutions experienced by human society. In the 1760s, the British textile worker James Hargreaves invented the spinning jenny, triggering a chain reaction of machine inventions and technological innovations. For example, the subsequent inventions of the roller spinning machine, the mule, and the water-powered loom marked the beginning of the introduction stage of the first Industrial Revolution, and the world economy entered the downswing of the first Kondratieff long wave. In 1776, James Watt built the first practical steam engine and, after improvements in 1785, applied it to the textile industry, advancing the development of cotton spinning. [8]8 "End of history" thesis: Francis Fukuyama's 1992 argument that liberal democracy represents the endpoint of humanity's sociocultural evolution. This propelled the first Industrial Revolution into the expansion stage, forming the upswing of the first Kondratieff long wave. After 1790, the excessive expansion of the cotton textile industry led to overproduction and triggered an economic crisis. Around 1825, the first Industrial Revolution was forced into the synergy stage, and the world economy entered the downswing of the second Kondratieff long wave. During this period, new technologies originally applied in the cotton textile industry began to transfer to other industries, promoting adjustments in institutional arrangements and production-organizational structures in other sectors, and social production began to couple. Around the 1850s, the first Industrial Revolution entered the maturity stage, with rapid economic growth ushering in the upswing of the second Kondratieff long wave. After 1870, the growth momentum of the first Industrial Revolution noticeably declined, and the introduction stage of the second Industrial Revolution began. The techno-economic paradigm of the first Industrial Revolution still had some residual power, while the new techno-economic paradigm was rising. The confrontation between the two caused the world economy to experience "deadly stagnation," and the world economy entered the downswing of the third Kondratieff long wave. With the continuous innovation and diffusion of steel-making technology, as well as internal combustion engine and electrical power technologies, the electrification of factories gave rise to large corporations and Taylorism [5]5 Taylorism: a scientific management approach developed by Frederick W. Taylor in the early 20th century. in enterprise management. The rapid expansion of emerging industrial sectors such as steel, electricity, petroleum, and automobiles propelled the second Industrial Revolution into the expansion stage around 1893, and the world economy entered the upswing of the third Kondratieff long wave. However, the structural imbalances caused by the rapid development of emerging industries became increasingly severe. The economic crisis that broke out in 1913 brought the second Industrial Revolution into the synergy stage. This was an era filled with war and turmoil, and the world economy entered the downswing of the fourth Kondratieff long wave. During this period, the needs of war objectively promoted technological change and adjustments in production-organizational modes across various industries, with Fordist [6]6 Fordism: a production system based on assembly-line mass production, named after Henry Ford. assembly-line production gradually gaining dominance. After the Second World War, the second Industrial Revolution soon entered the maturity stage, opening the upswing of the fourth Kondratieff long wave. This was the "golden age" of the world economy, especially for Western capitalist countries.

基于上述基本范式，我们可以对人类社会经历的三次工业革命的发展脉络加以梳理。18世纪60年代，英国纺织工詹姆士·哈格里夫斯(James Hargreaves)发明了珍妮纺纱机，引发了机器发明与技术创新的连锁反应，例如，随后出现的卷轴纺纱机、走锭精纺机以及水力织布机等，这些发明与创新开启了第一次工业革命导入期，世界经济进入了第一次康德拉季耶夫长波下降波。1776年，詹姆斯·瓦特(James Watt)制造了第一台有实用价值的蒸汽机并在1785年通过改良后运用于纺织工业，推进了棉纺业的大发展，[8]带动第一次工业革命进入拓展期，形成第一次康德拉季耶夫长波的扩张波。1790年之后，由于棉纺织业过快膨胀，导致生产过剩并引发经济危机，第一次工业革命在1825年左右被迫进入协同期，同时世界经济进入第二次康德拉季耶夫长波的下降波阶段。这一时期原本应用于棉纺工业的新技术开始向其他产业转移，推动其他产业制度安排和生产组织结构的调整，社会生产开始走向耦合。到了19世纪50年代左右，第一次工业革命进入成熟阶段，经济快速增长，迎来第二次康德拉季耶夫长波的上升波。1870年之后第一次工业革命增长动能明显衰减，第二次工业革命导入期开始。第一次工业革命技术经济范式还有余威，新技术经济范式正在崛起，两者对峙使得这一阶段世界经济出现了“死气沉沉的萧条”,世界经济进入了第三次康德拉季耶夫长波下降波。随着制钢技术以及内燃机、电气动力技术不断创新和扩散，工厂的电气化催生了大型公司以及企业管理中的泰勒主义，钢铁、电力、石油和汽车等新兴工业部门快速扩张促使第二次工业革命在1893年左右进入拓展期，世界经济进入第三次康德拉季耶夫长波的扩张波阶段。然而，新兴产业快速发展所带来的社会结构失衡问题日益严重，1913年爆发的经济危机把第二次工业革命带入协同期。这是一个充满战争与动乱的年代，世界经济也进入第四次康德拉季耶夫长波的下降波阶段。在此期间，战争的需要客观上促进了各产业领域的技术变革和生产组织方式调整，福特主义的流水线生产逐步占据了主导地位。第二次世界大战后，第二次工业革命很快进入成熟期，开启第四次康德拉季耶夫长波的扩张波上升时期，这是世界经济尤其是西方国家经济的“黄金时代”。

2. The Historical Position of the Current Century-long Changes in the Global Economy within Economic Long Waves

2.经济长波中的当前全球经济百年变局的历史方位

Human society is currently still in the stage of the third Industrial Revolution, which originated in the "stagflation" [7]7 Stagflation: a combination of stagnation (slow growth) and inflation, which characterized Western economies in the 1970s. crisis of the Western capitalist world in the 1970s. The arrival of "stagflation" marked the end of the second Industrial Revolution and the beginning of the introduction stage of the third Industrial Revolution, corresponding to the downswing of the fifth Kondratieff long wave. Emerging technologies represented by electronic chip technology, computer technology, and Internet technology rapidly expanded under the impetus of financial capital, pushing the third Industrial Revolution into the expansion stage in the early 1990s and forming the upswing of the fifth Kondratieff long wave. This wave of capital exuberance came to an abrupt halt with the 2008 international financial crisis. The third Industrial Revolution thus entered the synergy stage and the downswing of the sixth Kondratieff long wave. This is a profound period of structural adjustment, from which human society has not yet emerged. The current synergy stage of the third Industrial Revolution and the downswing of the sixth Kondratieff long wave are expected to end around 2030, transitioning into the maturity stage of the third Industrial Revolution and the upswing of the sixth Kondratieff long wave.

当前人类社会还处在第三次工业革命阶段，这是一场发端于20世纪70年代西方资本主义世界“滞胀”危机的工业革命。“滞胀”的到来标志着第二次工业革命终结并进入第三次工业革命导入期，对应第五次康德拉季耶夫长波的下降波阶段。以电子芯片技术、计算机技术以及互联网技术为代表的新兴技术在金融资本推动下迅速膨胀，推动第三次工业革命在20世纪90年代初进入拓展期并形成第五次康德拉季耶夫长波的上升波。这一波资本狂欢持续到2008年国际金融危机戛然而止，第三次工业革命由此进入协同期和第六次康德拉季耶夫长波的下降波阶段，这是一个深刻的结构调整期，目前人类社会暂未走出这一阶段。当前全球经济所处的第三次工业革命协同期和第六次康德拉季耶夫长波的下降波预计将于2030年前后结束，转而进入第三次工业革命的成熟期和第六次康德拉季耶夫长波的上升波阶段。

The synergy stage of an Industrial Revolution is a "turbulent period" of structural remodeling. During this period, the dominant technology and secondary technology clusters, along with corresponding institutional arrangements and organizational systems, develop deeply and integrate with one another, continuously reshaping the "balanced structure" of social production. [9]9 "21st-century new socialism": a concept discussed by Richard D. Wolff, emphasizing planned markets and workers' cooperatives. Each Industrial Revolution encompasses two Kondratieff long waves, corresponding to two rounds of technological revolution, representing different development paradigms: technically, they correspond to different waves of technological revolution; industrially, they correspond to different industrial systems; institutionally, they correspond to different accumulation regimes and management models; and spatially, they correspond to changes in the global economic center and economic pattern. Entering the 21st century, innovation swarms have begun to emerge. New energy power technologies, connection technologies such as 5G, the Internet of Things, and blockchain; manufacturing technologies such as 3D printing, smart manufacturing, and new materials; and corresponding flat, decentralized, networked, and platform-based production organization modes are trending toward deep integration and widespread diffusion. Various fields of social production are continuously adjusting toward coupling, preparing for the next expansion stage. The "century" in "changes unseen in a century" is more of a temporal generalization, referring to the "ongoing" or "imminent" enormous historical changes in the balance of power between Eastern and Western civilizations, determined by the economic base, in the long historical process of past centuries of changes.

工业革命协同期是一个结构重塑的“动荡时期”。这一时期，主导技术和次生技术集群以及相应的制度安排和组织体系深入发展并相互融合，不断重塑社会生产的“平衡结构”。[9]每次工业革命包含两次康德拉季耶夫长波，对应两轮技术革命，代表不同的发展范式：在技术上对应着不同的技术革命浪潮，在产业上对应着不同的产业体系，在制度上对应着不同的积累体制和管理模式，并在空间上对应着全球经济中心和经济格局的变动。进入21世纪，创新蜂聚开始涌现，新能源动力技术，5G、物联网、区块链等连接技术，3D打印、智能制造、新材料等制造技术以及相应的扁平化、分散化、网络化、平台型生产组织方式趋于深度融合与广泛扩散，社会生产各领域不断调整走向耦合，从而为下一扩张阶段做好准备。所谓百年变局的“百年”更多是一种时间上的泛指，即在过去几个百年变局的漫长历史进程中，由经济基础所决定的东西方文明在力量对比上展现出来的“正在”或“即将”发生的巨大历史性变迁。

II. Development Trends of the Current Global "Techno-Economic Paradigm"

二、当前全球经济“技术—经济范式”的发展趋势

Currently, the third Industrial Revolution is in its second half. The dominant technology cluster consisting of connection technologies, energy technologies, and manufacturing technologies will develop and integrate deeply, driving profound adjustments in production modes, management models, industrial systems, and the international economic pattern. It will usher in the upswing long wave of the maturity stage of the third Industrial Revolution. Carlota Perez believes that each technological revolution inevitably triggers a change in the "techno-economic paradigm." A techno-economic paradigm is a "best-practice model" that represents the most effective way to apply a given technological revolution. [11]11 "Bottleneck" technologies – a Chinese term referring to key technologies that are blocked or controlled by foreign countries, limiting China’s independent development; often used in the context of the "stuck neck" problem. The essence of an industrial revolution is the replacement of an old techno-economic paradigm by a new one, i.e., a fundamental change in the existing development paradigm of the socioeconomic system. [12]12 The 18th National Congress of the CPC – held in November 2012, it marked the beginning of the New Era under Xi Jinping’s leadership and set the goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Therefore, examining the development trends of the human society's techno-economic paradigm in the current historical stage and the upcoming maturity stage of the third Industrial Revolution and the upswing of the sixth Kondratieff long wave will help us grasp the development paradigm of the current century-long changes in the global economy. This includes three aspects: the energy and technology paradigm, the system and organization paradigm, and the resulting global economic geography and industrial division of labor pattern.

目前，第三次工业革命正处于下半场，连接技术、能源技术和制造技术构成的主导技术群将深入发展和融合，带动生产方式、管理模式、产业体系以及国际经济格局的深度调整，并将迎来第三次工业革命成熟期的上升长波。卡萝塔·佩蕾丝(Carlota Perez)认为，每次技术革命都不可避免引发一次“技术—经济范式”的变迁，技术—经济范式是一种最佳惯行模式(a best-practice model),代表着一场特定技术革命得以运用的最有效方式。[11]21产业革命的本质就是技术—经济范式的新旧更迭，也就是社会经济系统原有发展范式的根本变化。[12]2因此，考察当前历史阶段以及即将到来的第三次工业革命成熟期和第六次康德拉季耶夫长波上升波中人类社会技术—经济范式的发展趋势，有助于我们把握当下全球经济百年变局的发展范式，包括能源与技术范式、制度与组织范式以及由此所决定的全球经济地理与产业分工格局三个方面。

1. Development Trends of the Energy and Technology Paradigm

1.能源与技术范式的发展趋势

Connection technologies, energy technologies, and manufacturing technologies together constitute the key technologies of an industrial revolution. Connection technologies include transportation and communication technologies; they are an important force, often overlooked, that drives the process of each Industrial Revolution and promotes the progress of human society. The third Industrial Revolution is first and foremost a connection technology revolution centered on information technology. Advances in information and communication technologies represented by the Internet have brought about significant changes in the state and order of social production and life. Currently, the ability of technology to change connections continues to strengthen. With the continuous progress of technologies such as cloud computing, big data, and 5G communications, artificial intelligence (AI) technology, blockchain technology, and the Internet of Things are driving transformative changes in the way human society connects. In the future, people, organizations, terminals, and devices will be connected in various ways—from simple to complex, from one-way to two-way, from fixed to mobile. Connection technologies will create a huge Internet economy.

连接技术、能源技术和制造技术一起构成了工业革命的关键技术。连接技术包括交通运输技术和信息通讯技术，是容易被忽视的推动历次工业革命进程和促进人类社会进步的重要力量。第三次工业革命首先是以信息技术为核心的连接技术革命，以互联网为代表的信息通讯技术的进步带来了整个社会生产和生活状态及秩序的显著改变。当前，技术改变连接的能力还在继续加强，随着云计算、大数据、5G通信等技术的不断进步，人工智能(AI)技术、区块链技术以及物联网技术正推动人类社会连接方式的颠覆性变化。未来，人、组织、终端和设备将以各种方式连接在一起，从简单到复杂，从单向到双向，从固定到移动，连接技术将创造巨大的互联网经济体。

The characteristic of the third Industrial Revolution is: replacing fossil fuels such as coal and oil, which are centrally extracted and converted, with renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy that are dispersedly collected and converted. Renewable energy is converted into electricity locally and transmitted to users through intelligent regional power grids. The transformation in energy production and conversion methods drives changes in energy transmission, distribution, and utilization, giving rise to a flat, intelligent energy network. The revolution in energy production and utilization will establish a harmonious partnership between humanity and nature. Humanity will no longer arbitrarily extract resources from or discharge waste into nature, nor disrupt the rhythm of the Earth's biosphere cycles. Instead, it will return to its proper position within the Earth's biosphere ecosystem, organically integrating economic and social development with the natural biosphere, and ushering human society into an era of ecological civilization.

第三次工业革命的特征是：以分散采集和转换的风能、太阳能等可再生能源替代集中开采和转换的煤炭、石油等化石能源，可再生能源就地转化为电力，通过智能化区域电网传输供用户使用。能源生产和转换方式的变革，带动能源输配和利用方式的改变，催生扁平化的智能能源网络。能源生产和利用方式的革命将使人类与自然界建立一种和谐伙伴关系，人类不再随意向大自然索取资源和排放废物，不再破坏地球生物圈循环的节律，而是回归地球生物圈生态系统的应有位置，经济社会发展与自然生物圈有机地融为一体，促使人类社会步入生态文明时代。

In terms of manufacturing technology, many scholars firmly believe that the focus of the new round of technological and industrial revolution is the construction of "smart factories." By using AI-driven cyber-physical systems (CPS) to achieve smart manufacturing and digital manufacturing, the data in the information world will empower factories in the real world, enabling seamless integration of the entire manufacturing industry chain and achieving more efficient, faster, and more ideal production methods. Currently, human society, through the efforts of various countries, is entering an "AI society." For example, Volkswagen in Germany, through digital smart production, has reduced the energy consumption for manufacturing one engine by 67% and pollutant emissions by 70%. [14]14 The "Decision" refers to the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Upholding and Improving the Socialist System with Chinese Characteristics and Promoting the Modernization of the National Governance System and Governance Capacity," adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee in October 2019. In the future, as AI technology continues to spread and be integrated into the production systems and industrial chains of the entire society, human society will truly enter an "intelligent society": smart factories, smart production, smart logistics, smart buildings, smart grids, smart government, and smart consumption will completely change the way people produce and live. Humanity will liberate not only its hands but also its mind.

就制造技术而言，很多学者坚信新一轮科技和产业革命的重点是建设“智能工厂”,借助于人工智能的信息物理系统(CPS)实现智能制造和数字制造，用信息世界的数据来赋能现实世界的工厂，实现制造业产业链的全方位无缝对接，实现更高效、更快速、更理想的生产方式。当前人类社会正在各国的努力下步入“人工智能社会”,例如德国大众汽车通过数字化智能生产，制造一台发动机的能耗降低了67%,污染物排放则减少了70%。[14]41未来，随着人工智能技术不断推广，融入全社会的生产系统和产业链中，人类社会就真正进入“智能社会”:智能工厂、智能生产、智能物流、智能建筑、智能电网、智能政务、智能消费，彻底改变人们的生产和生活方式，人类解放的不仅是双手，更是大脑。

2. Trends of Change in Systems and Organizational Forms

2.制度和组织方式的变革趋势

The world today is "in an era fraught with challenges and risks, which are increasing day by day." [15]15 "Don’t say that going downhill is easy..." – a poem by Yang Wanli (1127–1206), a Southern Song dynasty poet, used by Xi Jinping The lingering effects of the 2008 financial crisis, coupled with the global COVID-19 pandemic that broke out in 2020, have resulted in weak economic growth, especially in Western developed countries. Western countries led by the United States pursue unilateralism and trade protectionism, and international cooperation faces difficulties. At the same time, more and more people are beginning to question the capitalist system. [16] Once, capitalism was synonymous with the "perfect system." Francis Fukuyama even proposed the "end of history" thesis. [8]8 "End of history" thesis: Francis Fukuyama's 1992 argument that liberal democracy represents the endpoint of humanity's sociocultural evolution. However, starting with the global financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the deep-seated contradictions of the Western capitalist system have erupted once again. The sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further exposed these contradictions. In 2017, Richard D. Wolff published an article on the website "Truthout," discussing "21st-century new socialism," [9]9 "21st-century new socialism": a concept discussed by Richard D. Wolff, emphasizing planned markets and workers' cooperatives. and proposed that "rather than being a competitor, China is a model for the world to learn from." [17] "21st-century new socialism" emphasizes a planned market economy, highlights the role of the "workers' cooperative" as an organizational system, and its inherent requirement for the mode of production organization is socialized, networked, digitalized, and flattened.

当今世界“正处在一个挑战层出不穷、风险日益增多的时代”。[15]2008年金融危机余波还在，加之2020年爆发的全球性新冠肺炎疫情，世界经济尤其是西方发达国家经济增长乏力。以美国为首的西方国家奉行单边主义和贸易保护主义，国际合作遭遇困境。与此同时越来越多的人开始质疑资本主义制度。[16]曾经，资本主义是“完美制度”的代名词，法兰西斯·福山(Francis Fukuyama)甚至提出了“历史终结论”。然而，从2008年由美国次贷危机所引发的全球性金融危机开始，西方资本主义制度的深层矛盾又一次爆发，2020年一场突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情更是把资本主义制度的矛盾暴露无遗。理查德·沃尔夫(Richard D. Wolff)2017年在“揭露真相”(Truthout)网站刊文，论述了“21世纪新社会主义”,提出“与其说中国是竞争对手，不如说它是全世界的学习对象”。[17]“21世纪新社会主义”强调的是有计划的市场经济，突出“工人合作社”这一组织制度的作用，对生产组织方式的内在要求是社会化、网络化、数字化、扁平化。

In specific production fields, production organization modes are closely related to the technological paradigm; together they constitute the mode of production of society. Changes in energy and technology have a holistic impact: they can promote the emergence of new industries, upgrade old industries, change production organization modes, spawn new business models, and transform the way people work. The new round of technological and industrial revolution is shifting toward a foundation of renewable energy. The decentralized nature of renewable energy requires cooperative organizational structures rather than hierarchical ones. This is a mode of production organization that tends to be socialized, networked, platform-based, flattened, and miniaturized, and one that can respond more quickly to consumer demand. Unlike in the traditional industrialization process, where consumers were positioned at the passive end of consumption, with the support of new technologies, consumers directly participate in the innovation process of products and services, becoming important subjects of innovation.

在具体生产领域，生产组织方式与技术范式息息相关，它们共同构成了社会的生产方式。能源和技术变革具有全局性影响，既能推动新行业出现，也能推动旧行业升级，更会改变生产组织方式，衍生新的商业模式并改变人们的工作方式。新一轮科技和产业革命正转向以可再生能源为基础，可再生能源分散式的特质更需要合作性的组织结构而不是层级结构。这是一种更倾向于社会化、网络化、平台化、扁平化、小微化的生产组织方式，也是一种能够对消费者需求更快做出反应的组织方式。与传统工业化进程中消费者处于被动的消费末端不同，在新技术支撑下，消费者直接参与到产品和服务的创新过程中来，成为重要的创新主体。

In the new round of technological and industrial revolution, only enterprises that can quickly respond to consumers' personalized needs will gain stronger viability. New business models such as "customized production" and "after-sales service" are increasingly becoming mainstream production paradigms, requiring enterprise organizational structures to be further flattened. Through Internet of Things technology, millions of producers and consumers in the future will form a decentralized network, replacing all "middlemen" from wholesalers to retailers. This not only saves transaction costs and improves the efficiency of enterprise production resource utilization but also allows producers to quickly perceive consumer demand and respond rapidly. "The adversarial relationship between sellers and buyers is replaced by a cooperative relationship between suppliers and users."

在新一轮科技和产业革命中，只有那些能够对消费者个性化需求做出快速反应的企业才能获得更强的生存能力，“定制生产”和“后市场服务”等新的商业模式日益成为主流生产范式，这就要求企业组织结构必须进一步扁平化。通过物联网技术，未来数以百万计的生产者和消费者将组成一个分散式网络，代替从批发商到零售商在内的所有“中间人”,这既节约了交易成本，提高了企业生产资源利用效率，也使生产者可以迅速感知消费者需求并快速做出反应，“销售者和购买者之间的敌对关系被供应者和使用者之间的合作关系所取代”。

3. Development Trends of the Global Economic Pattern

3.全球经济格局的发展趋势

History has repeatedly proven that every technological and industrial revolution has a major impact on the world economic and political pattern. Human society has now entered a period of innovation agglomeration, which has an immeasurable impact on the adjustment of the international economic structure and will inevitably reshape the global economic and political pattern. Some scholars believe that the core of "changes unseen in a century" lies in the balance of power among countries in the world pattern and its changes and shifts, mainly manifested in historically significant changes in fields such as the global strategic pattern, the global economic pattern, the international order, the global governance system, and the form of human civilization and interaction.

历史多次证明，每次科技和产业革命都会对世界经济和政治格局产生重大影响。当前人类社会进入一个创新集聚期，对国际经济结构调整有着不可估量的影响，必将重塑全球经济格局以及政治格局。有学者认为“百年未有之大变局”的核心在于世界格局中各国的力量对比及其变化转移，主要表现为全球战略格局、全球经济格局、国际秩序、全球治理体系以及人类文明和交往模式等领域所发生的具有历史意义的大变化。

The current world economic structure is characterized mainly by the expansion of the capitalist system globally and the traditional dominance of Western countries; developed countries occupy a higher position in the international division of labor and hold discursive power in global governance. However, since the start of the 21st century, especially after the 2008 international financial crisis, emerging market countries represented by China have achieved a collective rise, and the international balance of power has undergone unprecedented major changes.[21] Concretely, this is manifested in the following aspects: First, in terms of total economic output, the gap between emerging market and developing countries and developed countries is continuously narrowing, with an obvious trend of "the South rising and the North falling" in the world economic landscape.[22] According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the share of emerging market and developing economies in global economic output has now surpassed that of advanced economies, contributing 80% to world economic growth. This will make the world economic landscape more balanced. "This is the most revolutionary, historic, and even irreversible change in the international balance of power since modern times."[23] Second, in global economic governance, emerging market and developing countries are playing an increasingly important role, and their institutional discursive power has also significantly increased. Whether in the share of developing countries in global trade or the number of seats held by developing countries among the world’s top 500 multinational corporations, historic breakthroughs have been achieved. Third, the gap in economic strength between China and the United States continues to narrow, at a speed rarely seen in the history of world economic development.[24] From the perspective of purchasing power parity, data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show that China’s real GDP surpassed that of the United States as early as 2014. In 2022, China’s real GDP was USD 30.3 trillion, while the United States was USD 25.5 trillion, making China 1.188 times that of the United States. Fourth, in the field of high technology, the gap between China and the United States has narrowed significantly, and China has surpassed the United States in some areas. Against the backdrop of a new round of technological revolution, major powers inevitably engage in fierce competition in high-tech fields. The U.S. government has not hesitated to use state means to suppress Chinese high-tech enterprises such as Huawei, strengthen export controls and investment restrictions on China in high-tech areas, and obstruct China’s advancement of "Made in China 2025"[10]10 "Made in China 2025" – a strategic plan issued by the Chinese government in 2015 to upgrade China’s manufacturing sector through innovation, digitalization, and green development, aiming to make China a leading manufacturing power by 2025. by every possible means. This has become a microcosm of the all-around competition between China and the United States.

当前世界经济格局以资本主义体系在全球扩展、西方国家占据传统优势为主要特征，发达国家在国际分工中位于较高层次，在全球治理中掌握话语权。然而，进入21世纪以来，尤其是2008年国际金融危机后，以中国为代表的新兴市场国家实现了群体性崛起，国际力量对比发生了前所未有的大变化。[21]具体而言，主要表现在以下几个方面：一是从经济总量看，新兴市场国家和发展中国家与发达国家之间的差距不断缩小，世界经济版图中“南升北降”趋势明显。[22]根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)统计，目前新兴市场和发展中经济体占全球经济总量的比重已超过发达经济体，对世界经济增长的贡献率达到80%,这将使世界经济版图更加均衡。“这是近代以来国际力量对比中最具革命性的、历史性的甚至是难以逆转的变化”。[23]二是在全球经济治理中，新兴市场国家和发展中国家所扮演的角色越来越重要，制度性话语权也显著增强。不管是在全球贸易中发展中国家所占比重，还是在全球500强跨国企业中发展中国家所占席数，都实现了历史性突破。三是中美经济实力差距不断缩小，速度之快在世界经济发展历史中非常罕见。[24]从购买力平价角度，经济合作与发展组织(OECD)数据显示，中国真实GDP早在2014年就已经超过美国。2022年中国真实GDP为30.3万亿美元，美国为25.5万亿美元，中国是美国的1.188倍。四是在高科技领域，中美之间差距显著缩小，中国在某些领域已经超越美国。新一轮科技革命背景下，大国难免要在高科技领域展开激烈博弈，美国政府不惜动用国家手段对华为等中国高科技企业实施打压，在高科技领域对中国强化出口管制和投资限制，百般阻挠中国推进《中国制造2025》,成为中美之间全方位竞争的一个缩影。

Some scholars have vividly summarized the above changes in the global economic structure as "the East rising and the West falling," "the North dividing and the South uniting," and "earth-shaking changes,"[25] capturing the great shift in the world economic structure unseen in a century. The so-called "East rising and West falling" refers to the continuous strengthening of Eastern countries represented by China in overall strength, while Western countries represented by the United States are relatively declining, making the balance of power between East and West more even. The so-called "North dividing and South uniting" refers to the increasingly prominent tendency of developed Western countries to "look inward," the prevalence of trade protectionism and unilateralism, and the numerous conflicts among developed countries; in contrast, emerging economies and developing countries, led by China, are becoming more united, increasingly becoming an important force in reshaping the international economic and political order. The so-called "earth-shaking changes" refers to the current international order, especially the global economic governance system, being in a transitional period of discarding the old and establishing the new, and it is proceeding in a peaceful and transformative manner.

有学者将上述全球经济格局变化形象地概括为“东升西降”“北分南合”“地覆天翻”,[25]道出了世界经济格局百年未有的大变势。所谓“东升西降”,是指在整体实力上以中国为代表的东方国家持续走强，而以美国为代表的西方国家则相对式微，东西方在力量对比上更加均衡。所谓“北分南合”,是指西方发达国家“内顾”倾向日益凸显，贸易保护主义和单边主义盛行，发达国家之间矛盾重重；相反新兴经济体和发展中国家在中国带领下越发走向团结，日益成为重塑国际经济和政治格局的重要力量。所谓“地覆天翻”,是指当前国际秩序，尤其是全球经济治理体系，正处于一种革故鼎新的转型过渡期，且它正以和平变革的方式进行。

III. China under the Changes Unseen in a Century: Opportunities, Challenges, and Countermeasures

三、百年变局下的中国：机遇、挑战与应对方案

The 2021 Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that "under the impact of the once-in-a-century pandemic, changes unseen in a century are accelerating, and the external environment is becoming more complex, severe, and uncertain."[26] The ongoing new round of scientific, technological, and industrial revolution is a profound transformation of the techno-economic paradigm embedded in energy, technology, management, and institutional systems, providing an opportunity for the transfer of economic leadership among nations.[12]12 The 18th National Congress of the CPC – held in November 2012, it marked the beginning of the New Era under Xi Jinping’s leadership and set the goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects.39 Whoever can reshape the institutional structure for the economic-technological transformation required by the new round of scientific, technological, and industrial revolution to meet its needs, and provide more effective structural support for key technologies, will seize the initiative in development and lead global economic development in this round of technological and industrial revolution.

2021年中央经济工作会议指出，“在世纪疫情冲击下，百年变局加速演进，外部环境更趋复杂严峻和不确定”。[26]正在进行的新一轮科技和产业革命是一场嵌入在能源、技术、管理和制度系统中的技术—经济范式的深刻变革，它为国家间经济领导权的更迭提供了机会。[12]39谁可以为新一轮科技和产业革命在经济—技术领域的变革重塑制度结构以适应其需求，为关键技术提供更为有效的结构支撑，谁就可以在这一轮科技和产业革命中占据发展主动权并领导全球经济发展。

1. China’s Opportunities and Challenges under Changes Unseen in a Century

1.百年变局下中国的机遇与挑战

First, at the technological level. The technological connotation of the third industrial revolution is a new generation of high-tech clusters centered on the application of information technology, including connectivity technology, energy technology, and manufacturing technology and their mutual penetration – a multi-level, continuous innovation technology system with rich connotations. Unlike previous technological revolutions dominated or even monopolized by a few developed countries, the trend of the new round of technological revolution is characterized by breakthroughs at multiple points and collective advancement; no single country can independently meet all the requirements of technological innovation. This provides a good opportunity for China to catch up in the technological field, but it also brings new challenges: established developed countries are bound to take advantage of this new technological revolution to revitalize their manufacturing industries, step up the pace of technological innovation, and the competition for commanding heights in science and technology will become white-hot. The United States proposed the "Industrial Internet" strategy in 2012, Germany released the "Industry 4.0" strategic plan in 2013, and in addition, Japan’s "Industrial Intelligence" strategy and the EU’s "High-Efficiency Production and High Value-Added" model all aim to seize the commanding heights of science and technology by developing smart factories.[14]14 The "Decision" refers to the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Upholding and Improving the Socialist System with Chinese Characteristics and Promoting the Modernization of the National Governance System and Governance Capacity," adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee in October 2019.37 The Industrial Internet Consortium is even seen as an organization promoting industry standardization, with the goal of setting industry standards for IoT-based smart factories and smart services.[13]13 "The overall goal of comprehensively deepening reform is to improve and develop the socialist system with Chinese characteristics and promote the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity" – a key formulation from the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2013, which laid out the blueprint for comprehensive reform.115 This will, to a certain extent, weaken China’s traditional comparative advantages and help Western developed countries form new competitive advantages. In particular, China’s weakness in high-end production processes and the establishment of industry standards will be magnified. Western countries seizing the commanding heights of technology has also absolutely deteriorated China’s external environment for innovation cooperation. Western countries restrict and suppress China’s technological innovation through various means, even resorting to state machinery to deal with individual Chinese companies. Coupled with the fact that China’s original innovation capability is still insufficient, Chinese enterprises often focus on breakthroughs in individual technologies but neglect improving the entire production process and establishing technical standards. The weakness of lacking standardization thinking will put China at a disadvantage in this new technological revolution.

首先，技术层面。第三次工业革命的技术内涵是一场以信息技术应用为核心，包括连接技术、能源技术和制造技术及其相互渗透所构成的新一代高新技术群，这是一个内涵丰富、多层次的持续创新技术系统。不同于之前技术革命由少数几个发达国家主导甚至垄断的局面，新一轮技术革命的趋势特征是多点突破、群体推进，任何单一国家都无法独自完成技术创新的所有要求。这给我国在技术领域的赶超提供了很好机遇，但同时也带来了新的挑战：老牌发达国家势必会借助这次新技术革命的“东风”,重振制造业，加紧技术创新步伐，科技领域制高点的争夺将进入白热化。美国2012年开始提出“工业互联网”战略，德国在2013年发布“工业4.0”战略规划，此外，日本的“工业智能化”战略以及欧盟推行的“高效生产和高附加值”模式，其核心都是通过发展智能工厂抢占科技制高点。[14]37工业互联网联盟更是被视为一个推动行业标准化的组织，其目的就是制定基于物联网的智能工厂以及智能服务的行业标准。[13]115这会在一定程度上削弱中国的传统比较优势，有利于西方发达国家形成新的竞争优势，尤其是中国在高端生产工艺以及行业标准确立等方面的弱势会被放大。西方国家抢占技术制高点也导致中国的外部创新合作环境绝对地恶化了。西方国家通过各种手段限制、打压中国技术创新，不惜动用国家机器力量来对付中国个别企业。加之中国原始创新能力依然不足，中国企业往往重视突破单项技术，不注重改善整个生产流程并确立技术标准，缺乏标准化思维的弱点会令中国在这场新技术革命中处于不利地位。

Second, at the institutional and state governance level. The new round of scientific, technological, and industrial revolution imposes stricter requirements on institutional innovation. Although the technological and industrial revolution may occur in countries and regions with good "institutional soil" such as the United States, China, and Europe,[27] the current world is in the synergy period of the third industrial revolution, where institutional changes in the social system have lagged behind. Any country that wants to achieve something in the new technological revolution must adjust its existing institutional framework and continuously improve government governance capacity. For China, on the one hand, the socialist system with Chinese characteristics is an autonomous choice made by the Chinese people based on a high degree of institutional identification, and the "institutional soil" required by the new technological revolution already exists in China. At present, China is improving and developing the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, and striving to better transform institutional advantages into national governance effectiveness, so as to promote the coupling of the institutional framework with technological change. From a global perspective, China is one of the few countries that has made relatively good institutional preparations for the new technological revolution. On the other hand, the new technological revolution will bring fundamental changes in business models, production organization methods, and demand for talent, which will give rise to new structural contradictions: first, the contradiction in development structure caused by the weakening of traditional comparative advantages while new ones have not yet formed; second, structural unemployment resulting from the difficulty of matching existing labor supply with the demand for talent in new technologies; third, social capital is more concentrated in traditional industries, while capital needed for new technology industries is insufficient, creating a structural imbalance between capital supply and demand. This will undoubtedly make society more vulnerable and social governance more difficult, and both the flexibility of institutional innovation and the adaptability of social governance will face challenges.

其次，制度和国家治理层面。新一轮科技和产业革命对制度创新的要求更为苛刻。尽管科技和产业革命有可能在美国、中国、欧洲等具备良好“制度土壤”的国家和地区发生，[27]然而，当前世界处于第三次工业革命协同期，社会制度领域的变革已经滞后，任何国家想要在新技术革命中有所作为，都必须对现有制度框架加以调整并不断提升政府治理能力。对中国而言，一方面，中国特色社会主义制度是中国人民基于高度制度认同所做出的自主选择，新技术革命所需的“制度土壤”中国已经具备。当前，我国正在完善和发展中国特色社会主义制度，推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化，致力于把制度优势更好转化为国家治理效能，从而推进制度框架与技术变革走向耦合。纵观全球，中国是为数不多为新技术革命在制度层面上做了较好准备的国家。另一方面，新技术革命带来商业模式、生产组织方式以及对人才需求的根本性变革，将会催生新的结构性矛盾：一是传统比较优势被削弱而新的比较优势暂未形成导致的发展结构矛盾；二是现有劳动力供给难以与新技术人才需求相匹配所造成的结构性失业；三是社会资本更多集中在传统产业，而新技术产业所需资本不足，并造成资本供需结构性失衡。这无疑会让社会更加脆弱，社会治理难度也更大，体制创新的灵活性和社会治理的适应性都将遭遇挑战。

Finally, at the level of international cooperation. The cooperative nature of the new round of scientific, technological, and industrial revolution in the technological field, coupled with the tendency of production organization methods to become more flattened, determines that cooperation is an inevitable choice for the future progress of human society. Jeremy Rifkin calls it the "Cooperative Age."[19]199 From the perspective of cooperation subjects, it includes not only cooperation between countries but also cooperation between different regions and departments within a country; from the perspective of cooperation objects, it includes both technological integration (the cross-fusion of physical, digital, and biological technologies) and industrial integration, where industrial boundaries become increasingly blurred and traditional manufacturing and service industries move toward deep integration, as well as the integration between technology and industry, where high and new technologies are continuously transformed into social productive forces and penetrate all aspects of society. The history of the industrial revolution shows that the great transformation of the global economic structure currently underway contains time-space opportunities for the rise of major powers, but the struggle will inevitably be sharp. Some scholars estimate that the impact of China’s rise on the global economy is 20 times that of the United States at the end of the 19th century and 100 times that of Britain at the beginning of the 19th century. After 2008, Chinese high-tech enterprises quickly became major participants in the international market. Faced with China’s irreversible rise, established Western developed countries have adopted all means to suppress China. It is undeniable that China’s external environment for cooperation has absolutely deteriorated, bringing no small challenge to China. At the same time, however, the Chinese government is one of the few governments in the world that emphasizes cooperation in governance. Relying on the Belt and Road Initiative, China continuously strengthens cooperation with emerging markets and developing countries, and also strives to advance cooperation with developed countries, such as the Industry 4.0 cooperation with Germany.

最后，国家合作层面。新一轮科技和产业革命在技术领域的合作特性，以及生产组织方式趋于扁平化，决定了合作是未来人类社会前进的必然选择，杰里米·里夫金(Jeremy Rifkin)称其为“合作时代”。[19]199从合作主体角度，不仅包括国家间的合作，也包括一国内部各地区、各部门间的合作；从合作客体角度，既包括科技融合(物理技术、数字技术和生物技术之间的交叉融合),也包括产业融合，产业界限越来越模糊，传统制造业与服务业走向深度融合，同时还包括科技与产业之间的融合，高新技术不断转化为社会生产力并渗透到社会方方面面。工业革命发展历史表明，当今世界正在经历的全球经济格局大变革，蕴含着大国崛起的时空机遇，同时斗争也必然尖锐。有学者估算中国崛起的力量给全球经济带来的冲击力是19世纪末美国上升时期的20倍，是19世纪初英国爆发时期的100倍。2008年之后，中国高新技术企业迅速成为国际市场的主要参与者。面对中国不可逆转的崛起，老牌西方发达国家采取一切手段压制中国。不可否认，中国面对的外部合作环境绝对地恶化了，这给中国带来不小挑战。但同时，中国政府是当前世界在执政中强调合作的少数政府之一，依托“一带一路”倡议，中国不断加强与新兴市场和发展中国家之间的合作，与发达国家的合作也在努力推进，例如与德国开展的工业4.0合作。

2. China’s Plan to Cope with the Major Changes Unseen in a Century

2.应对百年未有大变局的中国方案

Historical experience shows that the key for latecomer countries to seize the opportunity to catch up lies in achieving leapfrog development according to the following path: drive scientific and technological progress through innovation-driven leadership, innovate institutional design, improve the effectiveness of national governance capacity and governance system, promote the breaking away of production modes from the "lock-in effect" of the old paradigm to upgrade the industrial structure and achieve balance, match the various subsystems of society with each other, and provide perfect structural support for key technologies. Enhance the diffusion and driving capacity of leading industries, and ultimately occupy the global commanding heights of science and technology, facing the world to expand "development space." Therefore, China’s plan to respond to the changes unseen in a century includes the following three aspects of national strategy.

历史经验表明，后发国家把握赶超机遇的关键在于按照以下路径实现跨越式发展：通过创新驱动引领科学技术进步，创新制度设计，推进国家治理能力和治理体系效能提升，推动生产方式摆脱旧范式的“锁定效应”以升级产业结构达到平衡，实现社会各子系统相互匹配，为关键技术提供完善的结构支撑。提高先导产业的扩散带动能力，并最终占领全球科技制高点，面向全球以拓展“发展空间”。因此，应对百年变局的中国方案包含以下三个方面的国家战略。

(1) Precisely Implementing an Innovation-Driven Development Strategy

(1)精准实施创新驱动发展战略

The world is currently experiencing a clustering of innovations, with various disruptive technologies emerging continuously and determining the future direction of human society, also turning national competition into competition for high and new technologies and strategic emerging industries. This can be addressed from the following aspects: First, continuously increase investment in basic innovation, solve the problem of "bottleneck" technologies,[11]11 "Bottleneck" technologies – a Chinese term referring to key technologies that are blocked or controlled by foreign countries, limiting China’s independent development; often used in the context of the "stuck neck" problem. and achieve self-reliance and self-strengthening in science and technology. Focus on breakthroughs in key areas such as intelligent manufacturing, new materials, and biotechnology to form a first-mover advantage in innovative development, and provide strong technical support for the development of other industries through technology sharing and knowledge diffusion, so that the "bottleneck" problem is fundamentally resolved. Second, earnestly build a technological innovation system with enterprises as the main body, and explore the construction of diverse and open innovation cooperation platforms among universities, research institutions, and enterprises. At present, China has not yet built an efficient and connected multi-participant innovation loop; various innovation organizations have poor coordination in sharing innovation information, using scientific and technological talents, and flowing innovation capital, making it difficult to form a "1 plus 1 greater than 2" linkage effect.[27] To this end, communication barriers among various innovation entities must be eliminated, resources should flow efficiently among various organizations, and an open and cooperative innovation network and diverse forms of innovation communities should be formed. Third, create a good institutional environment for innovation, remove obstacles in systems and mechanisms, smooth innovation channels, and establish an open technological innovation system with enterprises as the main body, market-oriented, and deep integration of industry, academia, and research. Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized: "China is willing to strengthen cooperation with other countries on intellectual property protection, create a good innovation ecosystem, and promote technical exchanges and cooperation with other countries on the basis of marketization and rule of law principles." Fourth, cultivate high-end innovative talents, promote the overall improvement of the quality of the labor force, and optimize the talent supply structure according to the scientific and technological innovation requirements of the new technological revolution. Continuously increase investment in education and allocate educational resources rationally, highlight the orientation of "high-end, precise, and cutting-edge," optimize the talent structure, improve talent quality, strengthen talent incentives, and build a talent cultivation system with international competitiveness.

当前世界正经历创新蜂聚，各种颠覆性技术不断涌现并决定人类社会未来走向，也使国家竞争真正走向高新技术和战略性新兴产业的竞争。可以从以下几个方面着手应对：一是不断加大对基础创新的投入力度，解决“卡脖子”问题，实现科技自立自强。在智能制造、新材料、生物技术等重点领域集中攻关，形成创新发展的先发优势并通过技术共享和知识扩散为其他产业发展提供强有力的技术支撑，使“卡脖子”问题得到根本性解决。二是切实打造以企业为主体的技术创新体系，探索构建高校、研发机构与企业之间多元开放的创新合作平台。目前中国暂未建构起高效连通的多方参与的创新环，各类创新组织在创新信息分享、科技人才使用、创新资本流动等方面协同性较差，难以形成“1加1大于2”的联动效应。[27]为此，要消除各类创新主体之间的沟通障碍，推动资源在各类组织之间高效流动，形成开放合作的创新网络和形式多样的创新共同体。三是为创新创造良好的制度环境，破除体制机制障碍，畅通创新渠道，建立以企业为主体、市场为导向、产学研深度融合的开放型技术创新体系。习近平一再强调：“中国愿同世界各国加强知识产权保护合作，创造良好创新生态环境，推动同各国在市场化法治化原则基础上开展技术交流合作。”四是培养高端创新型人才，推进劳动者整体素质提升，按照新技术革命科技创新要求优化人才供给结构。持续加大教育投入并合理配置教育资源，突出“高精尖缺”导向，优化人才结构、提高人才质量、强化人才激励，构建有国际竞争力的人才培育制度。

(2) Promoting the Modernization of National Governance Capacity and Governance System

(2)推进国家治理能力和治理体系现代化

The technological innovation brought about by the new round of technological revolution brings more uncertainty to the social environment and security, which places higher demands on social governance and the construction of the rule of law. Adjusting and innovating institutional arrangements is imperative. Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC,[12]12 The 18th National Congress of the CPC – held in November 2012, it marked the beginning of the New Era under Xi Jinping’s leadership and set the goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. in view of the new situations and new problems faced, the Party Central Committee has assessed the situation and proposed that "the overall goal of comprehensively deepening reform is to improve and develop the socialist system with Chinese characteristics and promote the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity,"[13]13 "The overall goal of comprehensively deepening reform is to improve and develop the socialist system with Chinese characteristics and promote the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity" – a key formulation from the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2013, which laid out the blueprint for comprehensive reform. and issued the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Upholding and Improving the Socialist System with Chinese Characteristics and Promoting the Modernization of the National Governance System and Governance Capacity" (hereinafter referred to as the "Decision").[14]14 The "Decision" refers to the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Upholding and Improving the Socialist System with Chinese Characteristics and Promoting the Modernization of the National Governance System and Governance Capacity," adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee in October 2019. The general requirement is to discard all outdated ideas and concepts, resolutely eliminate the drawbacks in systems and mechanisms, break through solidified interest barriers, absorb all beneficial achievements of human civilization, and strive to form a more mature and well-defined socialist system with Chinese characteristics that is systematic, complete, scientific, standardized, and effective in operation. Give full play to the superiority of the socialist system, comprehensively deepen reform, accelerate the development of a socialist market economy, socialist democracy, an advanced socialist culture, a harmonious society, and a socialist ecological civilization, fully mobilize the people’s initiative to participate in the creation of social wealth, and let the fruits of development benefit all people more and more fairly. The "Decision" proposes the following major measures: uphold and improve the Party’s leadership system; uphold and improve the system of the people being the masters of the country; uphold and improve the socialist legal system with Chinese characteristics; uphold and improve the socialist administrative system with Chinese characteristics; uphold and improve the basic socialist economic system; uphold and improve the system for prospering and developing an advanced socialist culture; uphold and improve the system of ensuring people’s livelihood through coordinated urban and rural development; uphold and improve the social governance system based on co-construction, co-governance, and sharing; uphold and improve the system of ecological civilization; uphold and improve the system of absolute leadership of the Party over the people’s armed forces; uphold and improve the "one country, two systems" system; uphold and improve the independent foreign policy of peace; uphold and improve the Party and state supervision system; strengthen the Party’s leadership in upholding and improving the socialist system with Chinese characteristics and promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity.

新一轮科技革命带来的技术创新给社会环境和安全带来更多的不确定性，这就对社会治理和法治建设提出了更高要求，调整并创新制度安排势在必行。党的十八大以来，鉴于面对的新情况、新问题，党中央审时度势，提出“全面深化改革的总目标是完善和发展中国特色社会主义制度，推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化”,并发布了《中共中央关于坚持和完善中国特色社会主义制度 推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化若干重大问题的决定》(下面简称《决定》)。总体要求是摒弃一切不合时宜的思想观念，坚决破除体制机制存在的弊端，突破已经固化的利益藩篱，吸收人类文明一切有益成果，努力形成系统完备、科学规范、运行有效的更加成熟定型的中国特色社会主义制度体系。充分发挥社会主义制度的优越性，全面深化改革，加快发展社会主义市场经济、民主政治、先进文化、和谐社会、生态文明，充分调动人民积极性参与社会财富创造，让发展成果更多更公平惠及全体人民。《决定》提出以下重大举措：坚持和完善党的领导制度体系；坚持和完善人民当家作主制度体系；坚持和完善中国特色社会主义法治体系；坚持和完善中国特色社会主义行政体制；坚持和完善社会主义基本经济制度；坚持和完善繁荣发展社会主义先进文化的制度；坚持和完善统筹城乡的民生保障制度；坚持和完善共建共治共享的社会治理制度；坚持和完善生态文明制度体系；坚持和完善党对人民军队的绝对领导制度；坚持和完善“一国两制”制度体系；坚持和完善独立自主的和平外交政策；坚持和完善党和国家监督体系；加强党对坚持和完善中国特色社会主义制度、推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的领导。

(3) Promoting the Formation of a Comprehensive Opening-Up New Pattern and Actively Participating in Global Governance

(3)推动形成全面开放新格局并积极参与全球治理

Unlike old capitalist countries that plundered resources and opened up markets from other countries through colonial expansion, China’s special national conditions determine that to complete large-scale industrialization, it needs a larger global market and the corresponding global supply and transportation system.[7]7 Stagflation: a combination of stagnation (slow growth) and inflation, which characterized Western economies in the 1970s.144 Promoting the formation of a comprehensive opening-up new pattern and actively participating in global governance is the logical choice for China to respond to the new round of scientific, technological, and industrial revolution. Although economic globalization is currently encountering headwinds and China’s opening-up faces severe challenges, as Xi Jinping said: "A country can open up confidently only when it is strong, and opening up promotes a country’s strength... As China’s economic development enters the new normal,[20] to maintain sustained and healthy economic development, we must establish a global vision, more consciously coordinate both domestic and international situations, comprehensively plan the grand strategy of all-round opening-up, and move towards the world with a more proactive attitude."[32] To promote the formation of a comprehensive opening-up new pattern, the following aspects can be addressed: First, adhere to a two-way opening-up orientation that emphasizes both "bringing in" and "going out," promote the effective use of both domestic and international markets and resources, and expand space for economic development; second, increase the intensity of opening up in the western region, while deepening coastal opening up, promote inland and border areas from opening-up depressions to opening-up highlands, forming an open pattern of interaction between land and sea and mutual reinforcement between the east and the west; third, adhere to the better combination of opening up in the manufacturing sector and opening up in the service sector, use service industry opening to force the upgrade and transformation of domestic manufacturing, improve the layout of foreign trade, and thus promote the construction of a trading power; fourth, adhere to the better combination of opening up to developed countries and opening up to developing countries, expand intersections of interests with various countries, comprehensively develop equal and mutually beneficial cooperation with various countries, and achieve diversification of export markets, diversification of import sources, and diversification of investment cooperation partners; fifth, adhere to the better combination of multilateral opening and regional opening, actively participate in the reform and construction of the global governance system, and be a builder and contributor to an open world economy.

不同于老牌资本主义国家通过殖民扩张从他国掠夺资源并开拓市场，中国特殊国情决定了要完成大规模工业化，需要更大的全球市场以及与之相配套的全球供应和运输体系。[7]144推动形成全面开放新格局，积极参与全球治理，是我国应对新一轮科技和产业革命的应然之选。虽然当前经济全球化遭遇逆流，中国对外开放面临严峻挑战，但正如习近平所说：“一个国家强盛才能充满信心开放，而开放促进一个国家强盛……随着我国经济发展进入新常态，我们要保持经济持续健康发展，就必须树立全球视野，更加自觉地统筹国内国际两个大局，全面谋划全方位对外开放大战略，以更加积极主动的姿态走向世界。”[32]推动形成全面开放新格局，可以从以下几个方面着手：一是坚持“引进来”与“走出去”并重的双向开放导向，促进对国内外两个市场、两种资源的有效利用，拓展经济发展空间；二是加大西部开放力度，在深化沿海开放的同时，推动内陆和沿边地区从开放洼地变为开放高地，形成陆海内外联动、东西双向互济的开放格局；三是坚持制造领域开放与服务领域开放更好结合，通过服务业开放，倒逼国内制造业升级改造，完善对外贸易布局，从而推进贸易强国建设；四是坚持向发达国家开放与向发展中国家开放更好结合，扩大同各国的利益交汇点，全面发展同各国的平等互利合作，实现出口市场多元化、进口来源多元化、投资合作伙伴多元化；五是坚持多边开放与区域开放更好结合，积极参与全球治理体系改革和建设，做开放型世界经济的建设者、贡献者。

IV. Conclusion

四、结 论

"Don’t say that going downhill is easy – it makes the traveler mistakenly happy. Just as you enter the mountains’ myriad circles, one peak released and another blocks the way."[15]15 "Don’t say that going downhill is easy..." – a poem by Yang Wanli (1127–1206), a Southern Song dynasty poet, used by Xi Jinping Xi Jinping has repeatedly quoted this poem by Yang Wanli to caution the whole Party: To achieve the "Two Centenary Goals,"[16] we do not know how many slopes we will have to climb, how many hurdles we will have to jump, how many storms we will have to weather, and how many difficulties and obstacles we will have to overcome.[33] For China, which aims to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, opportunities and challenges coexist under the changes unseen in a century. It must precisely implement an innovation-driven development strategy, strive for strategic initiative in the field of science and technology, uphold and improve the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, promote the modernization of national governance capacity and governance system, and at the same time conform to the historical trend of the new technological revolution and promote the formation of a comprehensive opening-up new pattern. China is walking on a "right track" that conforms to the laws of historical development and has prepared for the maturity period of the third industrial revolution and the upward wave of the sixth Kondratiev long wave.[17] As Xi Jinping mentioned in his speech at the 2022 World Economic Forum virtual session: "We must advance in the logic of historical progress and develop with the trend of the times." Facing the downward pressure on the global economy brought about by the once-in-a-century pandemic, the changes of the times are irreversible. Our external environment will be full of various unexpected risks and uncertainties, and international cooperation will face many difficulties. Therefore, we must continue to deepen our understanding of the "changes unseen in a century," meet new challenges with an open mind, a courageous spirit of reform, and scientific policies, and win the initiative amid changes with a striving and enterprising attitude.

“莫言下岭便无难，赚得行人错喜欢。正入万山圈子里，一山放出一山拦。”习近平多次引用杨万里的这首诗告诫全党：实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标，我们不知还要爬多少坡、过多少坎、经历多少风风雨雨、克服多少艰难险阻。对于以实现民族伟大复兴为目标的中国而言，百年变局的机遇和挑战并存，要精准实施创新驱动发展战略，争取科技领域的战略主动，坚持和完善中国特色社会主义制度，推进国家治理能力和治理体系现代化，同时顺应新技术革命的历史趋势，推动形成全面开放新格局。中国正走在一条符合历史发展规律的“正轨”上，已经为迎接第三次工业革命的成熟期和第六次康德拉季耶夫长波的上升波做好了准备。正如习近平在参加2022年世界经济论坛视频会议的演讲中提到的：“我们要在历史前进的逻辑中前进、在时代发展的潮流中发展。”[33]面对世纪疫情冲击所带来的全球经济下行压力，时代之变不可逆转，我们的外部环境变化将充满各种预料外的风险和不确定性，国际合作困难重重。因此，我们仍要不断深化对“百年未有之大变局”的认识，以开放的心态、改革的勇气、科学的政策迎接新的挑战，以奋发有为的姿态在变局中赢得主动。

The report of the 19th National Congress of the CPC[18] proposed a "two-step" strategic arrangement[19] for building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects, with a time span from 2020 to 2050. During this period, the global economy will experience one downward long wave and one upward long wave, and will basically complete the third industrial revolution. What is currently being experienced is the synergy period of the third industrial revolution and the downward wave of the sixth Kondratiev long wave, which is expected to end around 2030, and then enter the upward wave phase of the sixth Kondratiev long wave. If we can seize the opportunity and successfully achieve the first-step goal by 2035, then, during the subsequent upward period of the global economic long wave, that is, the maturity period of the third industrial revolution, we will smoothly realize the second-step goal of building a prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful modern socialist country.

党的十九大报告提出全面建成社会主义现代化强国分“两步走”的战略安排，时间跨度为2020～2050年。在此期间，全球经济将经历一次下降长波和一次上升长波，并基本完成第三次工业革命。目前正在经历的是第三次工业革命协同期和第六次康德拉季耶夫长波的下降波，预计到2030年左右结束，然后进入第六次康德拉季耶夫长波的上升波阶段。如果我们能够抓住机遇，到2035年顺利实现第一步目标，那么，我们将在之后的全球经济长波上升期也就是第三次工业革命的成熟期，迎来富强民主文明和谐美丽的社会主义现代化强国的第二步奋斗目标的顺利实现。

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