Conducting Sound Consistency Assessments of Macro-Policy Orientations

Improving the macro-economic governance system and solidly promoting high-quality development cannot be separated from the coordinated cooperation and precise execution of various policies as a "combined punch." The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2024 emphasized "incorporating both economic and non-economic policies into the consistency assessment of macro-policy orientations," highlighting the importance placed on deploying a policy "combined punch" and enhancing overall policy effectiveness.

健全宏观经济治理体系，扎实推动高质量发展，离不开各方面政策“组合拳”协同配合、精准发力。2024年底召开的中央经济工作会议强调“把经济政策和非经济性政策统一纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估”，凸显对打好政策“组合拳”、提高政策整体效能的重视。

Conducting sound consistency assessments of macro-policy orientations is a prerequisite for strengthening the consistency of macro-policy orientations. Under the severe and complex domestic and international development environment, persisting in formulating economic and non-economic policies with systematic thinking and making the whole nation "play a single game of chess" is an inevitable move.

做好宏观政策取向一致性评估，是增强宏观政策取向一致性的前提。在严峻复杂的国内外发展环境下，坚持以系统思维制定经济政策和非经济性政策，下好全国一盘棋，是必然之举。

Economic policies and non-economic policies together affect national development and social stability, and their consistency is of great significance for enhancing the modernization level of national governance. Non-economic policies, such as environmental protection and education, although seemingly weakly related to economic policies, actually have far-reaching impacts on resource allocation, market expectations, and social welfare. For example, while environmental protection policies restrict the excessive expansion of high-energy-consumption and high-emission industries, they also promote the development of a green economy and industrial restructuring, giving rise to new energy industries and providing new impetus for high-quality economic development. Similarly, education policies can enhance a nation's innovation capacity and global competitiveness by improving human capital. These non-economic policies can indirectly promote economic development by influencing labor quality, market vitality, and industrial structure. Therefore, incorporating both economic and non-economic policies into the consistency assessment of macro-policy orientations can achieve optimal resource allocation and complementary policy goals, avoiding the "fallacy of composition" caused by offsetting or conflicting policy objectives, and ensuring coordinated economic and social development.

经济政策与非经济性政策，共同影响国家发展和社会稳定，其一致性对于提升国家治理现代化水平具有重要意义。非经济性政策，如环保、教育等，尽管看似与经济政策关联较弱，实际上在资源配置、市场预期和社会福祉方面具有深远影响。例如，环保政策在限制高耗能高排放行业过度扩张的同时，也将推动绿色经济发展和产业结构转型，催生新能源产业，为经济高质量发展提供新动力。同样，教育政策可通过提升人力资本来提高国家创新能力和全球竞争力。这些非经济性政策能够通过影响劳动力素质、市场活力和产业结构，间接推动经济发展。因此，把经济政策与非经济性政策都纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估，可以实现资源优化配置和政策目标互补，避免政策目标相互抵消或矛盾冲突带来的“合成谬误”，保障经济社会协调发展。

Specifically, incorporating both economic and non-economic policies into the consistency assessment of macro-policy orientations and coordinating the entire process of policy formulation and implementation can provide important references for macro-policy formulation and adjustment, ensuring that macro-policies, while considering short-term and local benefits, give more consideration to long-term and overall development goals; it helps optimize policy implementation paths, simplify procedures, improve implementation efficiency, ensure the integrity, coherence, and stability of policies, and form an environment for sustainable development. At the same time, consistency assessment will also enhance policy transparency and public trust, thereby strengthening confidence in the policy environment. This not only helps stabilize market expectations but also enhances enterprises' willingness to invest and innovate. On the basis of improving the assessment mechanism, further strengthening cross-departmental collaboration and improving feedback mechanisms will provide a solid guarantee for enhancing policy synergy and the modernization level of macro-economic governance. To this end, multiple measures should be taken simultaneously to conduct sound consistency assessments of macro-policy orientations.

具体来看，把经济政策和非经济性政策统一纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估，统筹政策制定和执行全过程，可为宏观政策制定与调整提供重要参考，确保宏观政策在考虑短期、局部效益的同时，更加兼顾长期、全局的发展目标；有助于优化政策执行路径、简化流程、提高执行效率，保证政策的整体性、连贯性、稳定性，形成可持续发展环境。同时，一致性评估还将提升政策透明度和公众信任度，进而增强对政策环境的信心。这不仅有助于稳定市场预期，也有助于增强企业投资和创新热情。在完善评估机制的基础上，进一步强化跨部门协作，完善反馈机制，将为增强政策协同效应、提升宏观经济治理现代化水平提供坚实保障。为此，应多措并举，做好宏观政策取向一致性评估。

Establish a cross-departmental policy coordination mechanism. The formulation of economic and non-economic policies involves multiple decision-making departments. Establishing an effective cross-departmental policy coordination mechanism can promote the sharing and exchange of policy information, break down information barriers between departments, and improve the efficiency and quality of consistency assessments of macro-policy orientations. Each department should clarify its own role and scope of responsibility in the process of policy formulation and implementation, identify which policy content is its core function and which parts need to be completed in coordination with other departments. By building a regular information communication platform and holding joint meetings on a regular basis, departments can exchange views on matters related to policy formulation and implementation, and share departmental policy information and monitoring data in a timely manner. Assessment results should be promptly fed back to relevant departments, which should attach great importance to the assessment results and jointly study and resolve inconsistencies exposed in policy formulation and implementation.

建立跨部门政策协调机制。经济政策和非经济性政策的制定涉及多个决策部门。建立有效的跨部门政策协调机制，可以促进政策信息的共享和交流，打破部门间的信息壁垒，提高宏观政策取向一致性评估的效率和质量。各部门应明确自身在政策制定和执行过程中的角色与职责范围，明确哪些政策内容是本部门的核心职能所在，哪些部分需要与其他部门协同完成。通过构建常态化的信息沟通平台、定期召开联席会议等，就政策的制定和执行等相关事宜进行交流，及时共享各部门的政策信息和监测数据。评估结果应及时反馈给相关部门，各部门要高度重视评估结果，共同研究与解决政策制定和执行中暴露出的不一致问题。

Promote the digital and intelligent construction of the assessment system. Incorporating non-economic policies into the consistency assessment of macro-policy orientations increases the complexity of the assessment. To this end, data barriers between economic and non-economic policies should be broken down. By building a cross-departmental data sharing platform, data standardization and interconnection can be achieved. At the same time, big data analysis and artificial intelligence technologies can be introduced to establish dynamic monitoring and prediction models, track policy implementation effects in real time, assess the potential impact of policy combinations, identify possible conflicts between policies, and make timely corrections. Machine learning and other technologies can be used to screen key information from massive data, predict policy effects, and reduce the risk of goal deviation caused by the "fallacy of composition" in policies. In addition, simulation and decision support systems based on digital twin technology can be developed to analyze the overall and local impacts of different policy options through virtual simulation, providing a scientific basis for optimizing policy design. Using digital and intelligent means to improve the scientific nature and dynamic adjustment capability of assessments can effectively promote the coordination of economic and non-economic policies and drive high-quality economic development.

推进评估体系的数智化建设。把非经济性政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估，增加了评估复杂性。为此，应打破经济政策与非经济性政策间的数据壁垒，通过构建跨部门数据共享平台，实现数据标准化与互联互通。同时，可引入大数据分析和人工智能技术，建立动态监测与预测模型，实时跟踪政策执行效果，评估政策组合的潜在影响，识别政策间可能的冲突并及时纠偏。可利用机器学习等技术，从海量数据中筛选关键信息，预测政策效果，降低因政策“合成谬误”造成的目标偏离风险。此外，开发基于数字孪生技术的模拟与决策支持系统，通过虚拟仿真分析不同政策方案的全局和局部影响，为优化政策设计提供科学依据。通过数智化手段提高评估的科学性和动态调整能力，能够有效促进经济政策与非经济性政策协同，推动经济高质量发展。

Strengthen information disclosure during the assessment process. Transparency in the information of consistency assessments of macro-policy orientations is an important foundation for enhancing policy stability, guiding market expectations, and strengthening social supervision. Non-economic policies may affect economic operations by influencing factors such as corporate development confidence and the business environment. Strengthening information disclosure during the assessment process is conducive to creating a stable, transparent, and predictable policy environment, boosting public expectations and confidence in economic development. When formulating policies, assessment criteria should be clearly defined to ensure that economic and non-economic policies are formulated in accordance with unified goals, achieving consistency in macro-policy orientations from the source. During policy implementation, the results of consistency assessments of macro-policy orientations should be disclosed in a timely manner, interpretation of the assessment results should be strengthened, policy measures should be adjusted and optimized in a timely manner, and positive publicity and public opinion guidance should be continuously strengthened to build consensus for promoting sustained economic recovery and improvement.

加强评估过程的信息公开。宏观政策取向一致性评估信息的公开透明，是提升政策稳定性、引导市场预期和强化社会监督的重要基础。非经济性政策可能通过影响企业发展信心、营商环境等，对经济运行产生影响。加强评估过程的信息公开，有利于营造稳定、透明、可预期的政策环境，提振公众对经济发展的预期和信心。在政策制定时，明确评估标准，保证经济政策和非经济性政策按照统一目标制定，从源头上实现宏观政策取向一致性。在政策执行中，及时公开宏观政策取向一致性评估结果，加强对评估结果的解读，及时调整和优化政策措施，持续加强正面宣传和舆论引导，为推动经济持续回升向好凝聚共识。

(The author is the director of the Finance Department of the School of Economics at Xiamen University)

（作者系厦门大学经济学院金融系主任）

Online editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧