Balancing the Relationship Between Optimizing Increments and Revitalizing Stock

Stock and increments are interdependent, mutually reinforcing, and capable of transforming into each other. Stock is the foundation of increments, and increments are the transformation of stock; the two form a dialectical unity. The "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese-path Modernization," adopted at the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC [1]1 The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC, held in July 2024, focused on further deepening reform and advancing Chinese-path modernization., proposes "optimizing the allocation of various types of incremental resources and the structure of stock resources." The Central Economic Work Conference [2]2 The Central Economic Work Conference is an annual high-level meeting held by the CPC Central Committee to set economic policy priorities for the coming year. also explicitly requires that "we must balance the relationship between optimizing increments and revitalizing stock, comprehensively improving the efficiency of resource allocation." Against the backdrop of China's expanding economic aggregate and under the requirement to fully implement "promoting the qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy," this is a regularity understanding summarized by our Party through in-depth study and application of the dialectical method and the theory of contradiction. It is a concrete manifestation of systems thinking in China's economic work and an important aspect of improving the macroeconomic governance system. To this end, in the process of market-based allocation of factors, management of social assets, and debt governance of macroeconomic departments, attention must be paid to handling the relationship between optimizing increments and revitalizing stock, using increments to drive stock, using stock to promote increments, and promoting the coordination of optimizing stock structure and releasing incremental space.

存量和增量相互依存、彼此促进、互相转化，存量是增量的基础，增量是存量的转变，二者是辩证统一的关系。党的二十届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》提出，要“优化各类增量资源配置和存量结构调整”。中央经济工作会议也明确要求，“必须统筹好做优增量和盘活存量的关系，全面提高资源配置效率”。这是在我国经济总量不断扩大的背景下，在全面落实“推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长”的要求下，我们党深入学习和运用辩证法矛盾论总结出来的规律性认识，是系统思维在我国经济工作中的具体体现，是健全宏观经济治理体系的重要方面。为此，在要素市场化配置、全社会资产管理和宏观经济部门债务治理过程中，要注重处理好做优增量和盘活存量的关系，以增量带动存量、以存量促进增量，推动优化存量结构和释放增量空间相互协同。

Balancing the Release of Traditional Factors and the Cultivation of New Factors

统筹好释放传统要素和培育新型要素

Reform of market-based allocation of factors is an important part of upholding and improving the basic socialist economic system, accelerating the improvement of the socialist market economy system, and macroeconomic governance. Coordinating the revitalization of stock factor resources and the cultivation of new factor resources is of great significance for promoting high-quality economic development and fostering the transition from old to new growth drivers.

要素市场化配置改革是坚持和完善社会主义基本经济制度、加快完善社会主义市场经济体制和宏观经济治理的重要内容。协调好盘活存量要素资源和培育新型要素资源，对推动经济高质量发展和促进新旧动能转换具有重要意义。

Coordinate the revitalization of stock land and the tapping of incremental land. Land is an important carrier for China to accelerate industrialization and urbanization. Currently, China has entered a stage of deep integration of new industrialization and new urbanization. Coupled with the further strengthened requirements for coordinated comprehensive land use and land resource security, it is urgent to balance optimizing land supply and revitalizing stock land. On the one hand, accelerate the construction of a unified urban-rural construction land market, revitalize urban stock land and inefficient land, orderly promote the reform of rural collective commercial construction land entering the market, and achieve land conservation and intensive use as well as efficient use of stock land. On the other hand, under the premise of holding the red line of farmland protection and strictly controlling the total scale of urban development land, establish a configuration mechanism that coordinates new urban construction land quotas with the increase in permanent population, reform and improve the system for balancing the occupation and compensation of farmland [3]3 The "system for balancing the occupation and compensation of farmland" refers to the policy requiring that any conversion of farmland for construction must be offset by reclaiming an equivalent area of farmland elsewhere., improve the quality of land supply, and continuously enhance the economic and social benefits of land output.

协调盘活存量土地和挖掘增量土地。土地是我国加快推进工业化和城镇化的重要载体。当前，我国进入新型工业化和新型城镇化深度融合发展阶段，加之对协同土地综合使用和土地资源安全的要求进一步强化，亟需统筹好优化土地供给和盘活存量土地。一方面，加快构建城乡统一的建设用地市场，盘活城市存量土地和低效用地，有序推进农村集体经营性建设用地入市改革，实现土地节约集约和存量土地高效利用。另一方面，在守住耕地保护红线和严控城市发展用地总量规模的前提下，建立新增城镇建设用地指标与常住人口增加相协调的配置机制，改革完善耕地占补平衡制度，提高土地供给质量，持续提升土地产出的经济社会效益。

Coordinate the release of human capital dividends and the moderate increase in fertility levels. Population is the main body of social development, talent is the primary resource, and economic and social development ultimately depends on human development. Currently, China's demographic situation is changing, and it is at a critical stage of transitioning from a populous country to a human resources powerhouse. It is urgent to promote long-term balanced population development by improving the quality of the stock population and releasing the fertility potential. On the one hand, promote the construction of a strong education nation, a talent-strong nation, and a skills-based society in an integrated manner. Increase the quantity of high-level human capital by improving the quality of higher education development, and raise the level of existing human resources by establishing a modern vocational education system that serves lifelong learning for all. On the other hand, organize and implement the three-child policy [4]4 The three-child policy, announced in 2021, allows all Chinese couples to have up to three children, replacing the earlier two-child policy. and its supporting measures, slow the decline in the total fertility rate, promote the gradual optimization of the population structure, and help China maintain its endowment of human resources advantages.

协调释放人力资本红利和适度提升生育水平。人口是社会发展的主体，人才是第一资源，经济社会发展归根结底在于人的发展。当前，我国人口形势发生变化，正处于人口大国向人力资源强国转变的关键阶段，亟需通过提升存量人口质量和释放生育潜能促进人口长期均衡发展。一方面，一体化推进教育强国、人才强国和技能型社会建设，通过提升高等教育发展质量增加高水平人力资本数量，通过建立服务全民终身学习的现代职业教育体系提升存量人力资源水平。另一方面，组织实施好三孩生育政策及其配套支持措施，平缓总和生育率下降趋势，促进人口结构逐步优化，推动我国持续保持人力资源禀赋优势。

Coordinate the effective use of stock technological resources and the strengthening of key core technology supply. Science and technology are the primary productive forces; innovation is the primary driver of development; scientific and technological innovation is the core support for high-quality development. Currently, China's technology market transactions are inactive, the rate of transformation of scientific and technological achievements is low, and in certain high-precision and advanced fields, there is still insufficient technology supply. It is urgent to promote the transformation of high-quality scientific and technological achievements, strive for major breakthroughs in advantageous fields, and form a batch of key technologies that drive economic and social development. On the one hand, integrate stock scientific and technological resources, establish a technology-sharing platform, accelerate the construction of a high-level technology trading market, revitalize stock patents, and improve mechanisms related to the empowerment of job-related scientific and technological achievements. On the other hand, optimize the organization mechanism for major science and technology innovation, coordinate and strengthen research on key core technologies, promote the systematization, institutionalization, and synergy of scientific and technological innovation forces, factor allocation, and talent teams, and enhance the capacity to supply high-level technology.

协调用好存量技术资源和强化关键核心技术供给。科学技术是第一生产力，创新是引领发展的第一动力，科技创新是高质量发展的核心支撑。当前，我国技术市场交易不活跃、科技成果转化率偏低，同时在一些高精尖领域还存在技术供给不足的情况，亟需推动高质量科技成果转化，努力实现优势领域的重大突破，形成一批带动经济社会发展的关键技术。一方面，整合存量科技资源，建立科技共享平台，加快建设高水平技术交易市场，盘活存量专利，完善职务科技成果赋权相关机制。另一方面，优化重大科技创新组织机制，统筹强化关键核心技术攻关，推动科技创新力量、要素配置、人才队伍体系化、建制化、协同化，提升高水平科技供给能力。

Coordinate the effective use of stock data resources and the expansion of the scale of data elements. Data is the foundation of digitalization, networking, and intelligence, and is a key element in building a modern industrial system. Currently, China is accelerating the cultivation and development of new quality productive forces [5]5 "New quality productive forces" is a concept promoted by Xi Jinping referring to advanced productivity driven by technological innovation, data, and green development.. It is urgent to tap and release the potential and effectiveness of data elements to comprehensively drive a leap in social productive forces. On the one hand, improve the mechanism for opening and sharing public data, lead and drive the integrated application of data resources across society, promote the development and utilization of enterprise data resources, establish and improve rules for data circulation and trading, steadily advance the assetization of data, expand standardized scenarios for data development and utilization, and stimulate new vitality in stock data. On the other hand, actively promote the digitization of industries, explore application scenarios of the digital economy in the economy and society, and continuously expand the scale of data and enrich data types.

协调有效利用存量数据资源和扩大数据要素规模。数据是数字化、网络化、智能化的基础，是构建现代化产业体系的关键要素。当前，我国正加快培育发展新质生产力，亟需挖掘和释放数据要素潜力和效能，全面驱动社会生产力实现跃升。一方面，完善公共数据开放共享机制，引领带动全社会数据资源融合应用，促进企业数据资源开发利用，建立健全数据流通交易规则，稳妥推进数据资产化，拓展规范化数据开发利用场景，激发存量数据新活力。另一方面，积极推进产业数字化，探索数字经济在经济社会中的场景运用，不断扩大数据规模和丰富数据类型。

Balancing the Revitalization of Stock Assets and the Expansion of Effective Investment

统筹好盘活存量资产和扩大有效投资

With the continuous expansion of the economic aggregate, China has formed a considerable scale of social assets in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate, providing important support for economic and social development. At the same time, some idle assets or "sleeping" assets have appeared in certain fields. Promoting a virtuous cycle between stock assets and new investment is of great significance for improving the operation and management level of equipment and facilities, broadening social investment channels, reasonably expanding effective investment, and continuously improving investment efficiency.

随着经济总量不断扩大，我国在制造业、基础设施和房地产等领域形成了规模可观的社会资产，为推动经济社会发展提供了重要支撑，同时部分领域也出现了一些闲置资产或“沉睡”资产。促进存量资产和新增投资的良性循环，对提升设备设施运营管理水平、拓宽社会投资渠道、合理扩大有效投资和不断提高投资效益具有重要意义。

Balance the integration of traditional industrial assets and the expansion of investment in emerging industries. China is a major manufacturing country. In 2023, the added value of manufacturing accounted for about 30% of the global total, the total manufacturing assets exceeded 150 trillion yuan, and the fixed asset investment in the secondary industry reached 16.2 trillion yuan. Whether in terms of stock assets or incremental investment, China ranks first in the world. Currently, China is accelerating the development of new quality productive forces, transforming and upgrading traditional industries, cultivating and strengthening emerging industries, laying out and building future industries, and improving the modern industrial system. This requires comprehensively revitalizing assets such as traditional manufacturing equipment while coordinating investment in emerging fields to continuously improve the efficiency and effectiveness of manufacturing investment. On the one hand, leverage the driving role of large-scale equipment renewal policies [6]6 "Large-scale equipment renewal policies" refer to recent government measures to encourage replacement of old industrial equipment with new, more efficient models, often supported by subsidies and financing., increase medium- and long-term financial support from the government and financial institutions for technological transformation of manufacturing enterprises, promote the high-end, intelligent, and green development of traditional manufacturing, and strengthen enterprises' revitalization of stock assets through mergers, acquisitions, and property rights transfers. On the other hand, establish a growth mechanism for investment in emerging and future industries, improve support policies for long-term capital to invest early, small, long-term, and in hard technology, continuously create new industries, new business forms, and new business models, and promote the transition from old to new growth drivers.

兼顾整合传统产业资产和扩大新兴产业投资。我国是制造业大国，2023年制造业增加值占全球比重约为30%，制造业资产总额超过150万亿元，第二产业固定资产投资完成额达到16.2万亿元，不论资产存量还是投资增量在全球都稳居第一。当前，我国正加快发展新质生产力，改造提升传统产业、培育壮大新兴产业、布局建设未来产业、完善现代化产业体系，需要全方位盘活传统制造业设备等资产，同时统筹好新兴领域产业投资，不断提升制造业投资的效率和效益。一方面，发挥大规模设备更新相关政策的撬动作用，加大政府和金融机构对制造业企业技术改造的中长期资金支持，推动传统制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化发展，同时强化企业通过兼并重组及产权转让等方式盘活存量资产。另一方面，建立新兴产业和未来产业投入增长机制，完善长期资本投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技的支持政策，不断催生新产业、新业态和新商业模式，促进新旧动能转换。

Balance the revitalization of traditional facility assets and the acceleration of investment in new facilities. After years of investment and construction, China has formed a large amount of high-quality stock assets in the infrastructure sector, totaling over 120 trillion yuan in 2023, and still in a stage of steady improvement. Currently, China has entered a stage of high-quality development, facing the dual tasks of improving the investment and operation level of stock infrastructure and appropriately advancing investment in new infrastructure ahead of schedule. Therefore, we must adhere to the simultaneous development of "new" and "old," equal emphasis on "quantity" and "quality," and the simultaneous promotion of "construction" and "operation" to continuously improve the sustainable development level of infrastructure. On the one hand, effectively adopt the PPP (Public-Private Partnership) model [7]7 PPP (Public-Private Partnership) is a model of infrastructure procurement where a private sector partner finances, builds, and operates a public facility for a period., transfer the asset ownership, equity, operating rights, and toll rights of completed projects to social capital, encourage the exploration of eligible infrastructure REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) projects [8]8 REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are investment vehicles that own and operate income-generating real estate, allowing investors to buy shares in property portfolios., promote the "cage change and bird replacement" [9]9 "Cage change and bird replacement" is a metaphor for upgrading industrial parks by replacing low-end enterprises with higher-value ones. and quality improvement and upgrading of industrial parks, and revitalize stock infrastructure in key areas and regions. On the other hand, coordinate the use of fiscal funds such as local government special bonds, ultra-long-term special government bonds [10]10 "Ultra-long-term special government bonds" are bonds issued by the central government with maturities of 20 years or more, used to fund specific national projects., and social capital, broaden financing channels, focus on implementing the new urbanization strategy, the rural revitalization strategy, and the "dual carbon" strategy [11]11 The "dual carbon" strategy refers to China's goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060., based on the goal of independent and controllable industrial chains and in response to the new round of information technology revolution and aging trends, increase infrastructure investment in relevant fields, steadily improve investment efficiency, and strive to achieve a positive interaction between infrastructure construction and economic and social development.

兼顾盘活传统设施资产和加快新型设施投资。经过长期投资建设，我国在基础设施领域形成了大量优质存量资产，2023年总量超过120万亿元，并仍然处于稳步提升阶段。当前，我国进入了高质量发展阶段，面临着提升存量基础设施投资运营水平和适度超前布局新型基础设施投资的双重任务，为此要坚持“新”“老”并行、“量”“质”并重、“建”“运”并举，持续提升基础设施可持续发展水平。一方面，有效采取PPP（政府和社会资本合作）模式，将已建成项目的资产所有权、股权、经营权、收费权等转让给社会资本，鼓励探索符合条件的基础设施REITs（不动产投资信托基金）项目，促进产业园区“腾笼换鸟”和提质升级，盘活重点领域、重点区域的存量基础设施。另一方面，协同用好地方政府专项债、超长期特别国债等财政资金和社会资本，拓宽融资渠道，重点针对落实新型城镇化战略、乡村振兴战略、“双碳”战略，立足产业链自主可控发展目标以及应对新一轮信息技术革命、老龄化趋势等，加大相关领域基础设施投资力度，稳步提升投资效率，努力实现基础设施建设与经济社会发展的良性互动。

Balance the absorption of stock commercial housing and the stabilization of real estate investment. Since reform and opening up, with the advancement of housing reform and marketization, China has become the world's largest market for building and selling housing. The value of stock real estate accounts for about 40% of total social net assets. The healthy development of the real estate market is related to the overall situation of economic operation and financial stability. To better promote integrated urban-rural development and deeply implement a people-centered new urbanization strategy, it is urgent to accelerate the absorption of stock commercial housing, promote the construction of a new model for real estate development, promote the balance of supply and demand in the real estate market, and further meet the rigid and diversified improvement housing needs of urban and rural residents. On the one hand, advance the work of disposing of stock commercial housing, continue to use special bonds and subsidy funds for affordable housing projects to purchase stock commercial housing for use as affordable housing in various localities, intensify the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses [12]12 "Renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses" refers to redevelopment projects targeting unplanned, low-quality housing areas within cities and structurally unsafe old buildings., and revitalize stock land and commercial and office space. On the other hand, further improve the basic systems related to real estate development, promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, optimize the supply of affordable housing, vigorously implement urban renewal actions, and fully release the potential for rigid and improvement housing demand.

兼顾消纳存量商品房和稳定房地产投资。改革开放以来，伴随住房改革市场化的推进，我国已经成为全世界建造和销售住房的最大市场，存量房地产价值占全社会净资产达到40%左右。房地产市场的健康发展关系经济运行和金融稳定大局。更好促进城乡融合发展，深入实施以人为本的新型城镇化战略，亟需加快消化存量商品房，推动构建房地产发展新模式，促进房地产市场的供需平衡，进一步满足城乡居民刚性和多样化改善性住房需求。一方面，推进处置存量商品房工作，继续用好专项债券和保障性安居工程补助资金收购存量商品房用作各地的保障性住房，加力实施城中村和危旧房改造，盘活存量用地和商办用房。另一方面，进一步完善房地产发展相关基础性制度，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，优化保障房供给，大力实施城市更新行动，充分释放刚性和改善性住房需求潜力。

Balancing the Governance of Stock Debt and the Enhancement of Debt Capacity

统筹好治理存量债务和提升负债能力

Since reform and opening up, China's economy has experienced more than 40 years of sustained and rapid development. The debt balances of residents, enterprises, and government departments have increased significantly. Efficient management of social debt has become an important part of China's macroeconomic governance. Steadily revitalizing the debt of macroeconomic departments and continuously improving debt capacity is of great significance for smoothing the national economic cycle and expanding domestic demand in all aspects.

改革开放以来，我国经济经历了40多年持续快速发展，居民、企业和政府部门的债务余额显著增加，高效管理全社会债务成为我国宏观经济治理的一项重要内容。稳妥盘活宏观经济部门债务，不断提升负债能力，对畅通国民经济循环和全方位扩大国内需求具有重要意义。

Coordinate the promotion of government debt governance and the stabilization of government investment. According to public data from the Ministry of Finance, by the end of 2023, China's total government debt on a full-caliber basis reached 85 trillion yuan, with a government debt ratio of 67.5%, significantly lower than major economies and emerging market countries. To maintain stable economic growth, it is necessary to further enhance the government's debt capacity on the basis of effective governance of stock debt. On the one hand, advance the implementation of a package of debt resolution plans [13]13 A package of debt resolution plans refers to a set of measures announced in 2023 to restructure and reduce local government hidden debt, including debt swaps and refinancing., accelerate the replacement of hidden stock debt, gradually reduce the level of debt risk, and enhance local governments' capacity for sustained borrowing. On the other hand, actively leverage the central government's borrowing function, expand the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds, increase the issuance and use of local government special bonds, improve the government debt management system, and actively expand effective investment.

协调推进政府债务治理和稳定政府投资。根据财政部公开数据，2023年末，我国政府全口径债务总额达到85万亿元，政府负债率为67.5%，显著低于主要经济体和新兴市场国家。保持经济稳定增长，需要在存量债务有效治理的基础上，进一步提升政府负债能力。一方面，推进落实一揽子化债方案，加快置换存量隐性债务，逐步降低债务风险水平，提升地方政府持续负债能力。另一方面，积极发挥中央财政举债功能，扩大发行超长期特别国债规模，并增加地方政府专项债券发行使用，完善政府债务管理制度，积极扩大有效投资。

Coordinate the promotion of enterprise debt restructuring and the enhancement of enterprise investment. According to data from the National Institution for Finance and Development [14]14 The National Institution for Finance and Development is a Chinese think tank affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, specializing in financial and economic research., by the end of 2023, the ratio of the total debt of non-financial enterprises to GDP reached 168.4%. Currently, China is promoting sustained economic recovery and improvement. It is necessary to leverage the role of enterprises as investment entities on the basis of revitalizing enterprise debt, and continuously promote investment that expands domestic demand. On the one hand, accelerate the reform and transformation of local financing platforms, promote the bankruptcy, merger, and debt-to-equity swap [15]15 Debt-to-equity swap is a financial restructuring technique where creditors convert outstanding debt into equity shares in the debtor company. of state-owned enterprises through market-based and legal means, accelerate enterprise mergers and debt restructuring in real estate and some overcapacity industries, and continuously release the potential for enterprises to further borrow and expand investment. On the other hand, take multiple measures to enhance the financing capacity of state-owned enterprises, standardize the development of equity investment by state-owned enterprises, strengthen financing support for private investment, encourage state-owned enterprises and private enterprises to engage in equity integration, strategic cooperation, and resource integration, invest in new key areas, and continuously improve the investment willingness and efficiency of various types of enterprises.

协调推进企业债务重组和提升企业投资。根据国家金融与发展实验室的数据，2023年末，我国非金融企业债务总规模占国内生产总值的比值达到168.4%。当前，我国正推动经济持续回升向好，需在盘活企业负债的基础上，发挥企业投资主体作用，持续促进扩大国内需求的投资。一方面，加快地方融资平台改革转型，以市场化和法治化手段推进国有企业破产兼并和债转股工作，推动房地产和部分产能过剩行业加快企业兼并和债务重组，不断释放企业进一步负债和扩大投资的潜力。另一方面，多措并举提升国有企业融资能力，规范发展国有企业股权投资，加强民间投资融资支持，鼓励国有企业与民营企业进行股权融合、战略合作、资源整合，投资新的重点领域项目，持续提高各类企业投资意愿和投资效益。

Coordinate the promotion of household balance sheet restructuring and the vigorous boost to consumption. According to data from the People's Bank of China, by the end of 2023, the ratio of the total debt of the household sector to GDP reached 72.4%, of which mortgage loans accounted for a relatively high proportion, and consumer credit still has some room for growth. Currently, China is gradually improving the long-term mechanism for expanding consumption. It is urgent to optimize the debt structure of the household sector, release the consumption potential of the household sector, and focus on boosting household consumption demand. On the one hand, moderately lower mortgage rates, accelerate the establishment of a housing system that combines rental and purchase [16]16 A housing system that combines rental and purchase refers to policies that promote both rental housing and homeownership as equally viable options, with legal protections for tenants and pathways to purchase., increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, and gradually reduce the proportion of mortgage loans in household leverage. On the other hand, support the standardized development of consumer finance companies, continuously improve the personal credit reporting system, encourage local governments to increase fiscal subsidies for consumer credit interest, and better leverage consumer credit to promote the upgrading of consumption quality.

协调推进居民资产负债表重构和大力提振消费。根据中国人民银行的数据，2023年末，我国居民部门债务总规模与国内生产总值的比值达到72.4%，其中房贷占比较高，消费信贷仍然有一定增长空间。当前，我国正逐步完善扩大消费长效机制，亟需优化居民部门债务结构，释放居民部门消费潜力，着力提振居民消费需求。一方面，适度下调房贷利率，加快建立租购并举的住房制度，加大保障性住房建设和供给，逐步降低房贷在居民杠杆中的占比。另一方面，支持消费金融公司规范发展，不断完善个人征信体系，鼓励各地加大消费信贷财政贴息力度，更好发挥消费信贷促进消费提质升级作用。

(The author is a researcher at the Market and Price Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research)

（作者系中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所研究员）

Online editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧