Strengthening Expectation Management to Enhance Overall Policy Effectiveness

Expectation management primarily acts on the psychological level of economic agents through information dissemination, effectively reducing expectation deviations, transforming favourable social expectations into orderly and rational economic behaviour, and thereby generating strong confidence and momentum for advancing high-quality development. The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference [1]1 The Central Economic Work Conference is a high-level annual meeting held by the Communist Party of China around December to set economic policy objectives and major tasks for the following year. proposed "strengthening expectation management, coordinating the implementation of policies and the guiding of expectations, and enhancing the guiding force and influence of policies." This is the latest requirement for strengthening expectation management put forward by the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core on the basis of a scientific assessment of the domestic and international economic situation, an accurate grasp of the laws governing macroeconomic operations, and in light of the practical need to improve the macroeconomic governance system. Strengthening expectation management is conducive to guiding public expectations to converge on policy objectives, promoting the overall coordination and systematic implementation of macro policies, and is of great significance for improving the macroeconomic governance system and enhancing macroeconomic governance capacity.

预期管理主要通过信息传播作用于经济主体的心理层面，能够有效减少预期偏差，使良好的社会预期转化为有序、理性的经济行为，进而形成推动高质量发展的强大信心和动力。2024年中央经济工作会议提出，“加强预期管理，协同推进政策实施和预期引导，提升政策引导力、影响力”。这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央在科学研判国内外经济形势、准确把握宏观经济运行规律的基础上，结合健全宏观经济治理体系的现实需要，对加强预期管理提出的最新要求。加强预期管理，有利于引导公众预期向政策目标靠拢，促进宏观政策的统筹协调和系统落实，对于健全宏观经济治理体系、提高宏观经济治理能力具有重要意义。

1. The Importance of Strengthening Expectation Management Continues to Stand Out

1.加强预期管理的重要性持续凸显

Macroeconomic governance is an important domain of national governance, and the modernization of national governance inevitably requires the modernization of macroeconomic governance. Expectation management, as an important component of macroeconomic governance, refers to the ways in which government departments effectively guide, coordinate, and stabilize social expectations through policy interpretation, information disclosure, press releases, and other means. Strengthening expectation management is of great significance for advancing the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity.

宏观经济治理是国家治理的重要领域，国家治理现代化必然要求实现宏观经济治理的现代化。预期管理作为宏观经济治理的重要内容，是指政府部门通过政策解读、信息公开、新闻发布等方式有效引导、协调和稳定社会预期。加强预期管理对于推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化具有重要意义。

Strengthening expectation management is an inevitable requirement for forming a policy synergy to promote high-quality development. High-quality development is the hard truth of the New Era and the primary task of building a modern socialist country in all respects. A sound macroeconomic governance system is an important support for achieving high-quality development. This means that macroeconomic governance must not only achieve the general goals of macroeconomic regulation, such as economic growth, price stability, full employment, and balance of international payments, but also play an important role in areas such as strengthening development momentum, promoting coordinated development, fostering harmony between humanity and nature, advancing internal and external coordinated development, and properly handling the relationship between efficiency and fairness. The diversification of macroeconomic governance goals necessarily requires a diversification of tools, thereby highlighting the importance of strengthening coordination and cooperation among various policy tools. Practice has proved that strengthening expectation management can, when multiple policies are applied in combination, avoid as much as possible "composition fallacy" or "decomposition fallacy," [2]2 "Composition fallacy" and "decomposition fallacy" are economic concepts: the former occurs when individually rational policy measures produce an unintended aggregate outcome, and the latter when a total policy target is mistakenly broken into incompatible sub-targets. coordinate the implementation of policies and the guiding of expectations, and enhance the effect of macro policies supporting high-quality development.

加强预期管理是形成推动高质量发展政策合力的必然要求。高质量发展是新时代的硬道理，是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务。健全的宏观经济治理体系是实现高质量发展的重要支撑，这意味着宏观经济治理不仅要实现经济增长、物价稳定、充分就业和国际收支平衡等宏观调控的一般性目标，还要在增强发展动力、推动协调发展、促进人与自然和谐共生、推进内外联动发展、处理好效率与公平的关系等方面发挥重要作用。宏观经济治理目标的多元化必然要求工具的多样化，由此凸显出加强各种政策工具协调配合的重要性。实践证明，加强预期管理，能够在多种政策叠加发力的情况下，最大限度避免“合成谬误”或“分解谬误”，协同推进政策实施和预期引导，提升宏观政策支持高质量发展的效果。

Strengthening expectation management is an important prerequisite for advancing further comprehensive deepening of reform. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that "comprehensive deepening reform in the New Era is planned and advanced against the backdrop of China's reform entering a critical stage and deep-water zone, presenting prominent features such as wide-ranging coverage, deep-seated interests touched, great difficulty in tackling tough issues, and strong interconnections and linkages," emphasizing the need to "highlight the focus on economic system reform," "broadly build consensus and fully mobilize all positive factors," "rationally guide reform expectations," and "grasp the correct orientation of public opinion." Reform inevitably involves adjustments to the interests of various parties, affecting the interests of each person to different degrees, and the diversification of interest demands also increases the difficulty of building consensus on reform. Therefore, the government needs to rationally guide reform expectations, broadly build consensus, fully mobilize all positive factors, correctly handle the adjustment of interest relations and personal gains and losses in reform, and enhance the ideological consciousness and action consciousness for advancing reform. At the same time, in the face of the demands, contradictions, and problems that arise in reform, it is necessary to do a good job of guiding public opinion and create a stable, transparent, and predictable policy environment.

加强预期管理是推动进一步全面深化改革的重要前提。习近平总书记指出，“新时代全面深化改革是在我国改革进入攻坚期和深水区的背景下谋划并推进的，呈现出涉及范围广、触及利益深、攻坚难度大、关联性联动性强等突出特点”，强调“要突出经济体制改革这个重点”“广泛凝聚共识、充分调动一切积极因素”“要合理引导改革预期”“要把握正确舆论导向”。改革必然牵涉各方面利益的调整，会不同程度地影响每个人的利益，而利益诉求的多元化也增加了凝聚改革共识的难度。为此，政府需要合理引导改革预期，广泛凝聚共识、充分调动一切积极因素，正确对待改革中的利益关系调整和个人利害得失，增强推进改革的思想自觉和行动自觉。与此同时，面对改革中出现的诉求、产生的矛盾和问题，必须做好舆论引导工作，营造稳定透明可预期的政策环境。

Strengthening expectation management is a key measure to resolve the difficulties and contradictions facing China's economic development. Since the 2021 Central Economic Work Conference proposed that "China's economic development is facing triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakening expectations," the impact of expectations on the economy has become increasingly prominent. To effectively alleviate the pressure of weakening expectations, the 2022 Central Economic Work Conference proposed "starting from improving social psychological expectations and boosting development confidence, and grasping the key points to achieve success." The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized "introducing more policies conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment," placing "stabilizing expectations" first, highlighting the importance of strengthening expectation management. The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference, while fully affirming the role of a package of incremental policies [3]3 A package of incremental policies refers to a set of additional macroeconomic stimulus and adjustment measures introduced by the Chinese government in late 2024 to boost the economy, including fiscal, monetary, and investment measures. in "effectively boosting social confidence and significantly recovering the economy," continued to emphasize "stabilizing expectations and stimulating vitality." This means that stabilizing expectations remains the top priority in solving current contradictions and problems in economic development and promoting sustained and improved economic recovery.

加强预期管理是化解我国经济发展面临的困难和矛盾的关键举措。自2021年中央经济工作会议提出“我国经济发展面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力”以来，预期对经济的影响愈发凸显。为有效缓解预期转弱压力，2022年中央经济工作会议提出“从改善社会心理预期、提振发展信心入手，纲举目张做好工作”。2023年中央经济工作会议强调“多出有利于稳预期、稳增长、稳就业的政策”，将“稳预期”放在首位，凸显了加强预期管理的重要性。2024年中央经济工作会议在充分肯定一揽子增量政策发挥“使社会信心有效提振，经济明显回升”作用的同时，继续强调“稳定预期、激发活力”，这意味着稳预期仍是当前破解经济发展中的矛盾问题、推动经济持续回升向好的重中之重。

2. Main Content and Requirements for Strengthening Expectation Management

2.加强预期管理的主要内容及要求

China's expectation management is widely applied in all major aspects of macroeconomic governance, emphasizing the comprehensive use of multiple policy tools, and in terms of management duration, it emphasizes balancing short-term and long-term considerations. In recent years, the connotation of expectation management has been continuously deepened, with particular emphasis on improving government credibility, stabilizing consumption and investment, boosting market confidence, and prompting the government, enterprises, and residents to work together and act jointly to support high-quality development.

我国的预期管理广泛应用于宏观经济治理的各个主要方面，强调综合运用多种政策工具，在管理期限上则强调长短兼顾。近年来，预期管理的内涵不断深化，尤其强调提高政府公信力、稳定消费和投资、提振市场信心，促使政府、企业、居民协同发力、共同作为，助力高质量发展。

Improving government credibility and enhancing the guiding force and influence of policies are the primary prerequisites for strengthening expectation management. Improving government credibility is the key to the smooth implementation of expectation management. Continuously enhancing government credibility through increased transparency, strengthened supervision and accountability, and improved service quality is an important measure to enhance public support for and trust in the government. Enhancing the guiding force and influence of policies is also an inherent requirement of strengthening expectation management. China is in a critical period of accelerating transformation and upgrading and striving to advance high-quality development, with tasks of reform, development, and stability being unprecedentedly arduous and heavy. Government policy guidance and proactive regulation are the keys to promoting high-quality economic development, and it is essential to strengthen the important role of macro policies in guiding the psychological expectations and market behaviour of micro entities. This requires the government to further strengthen its response to public opinion on government affairs, avoid expectation deviations, and ensure that all policies can be effectively implemented and widely accepted.

提高政府公信力，提升政策引导力、影响力是加强预期管理的首要前提。提高政府公信力是预期管理顺利实施的关键所在。通过增强透明度、加强监督与问责以及提升服务质量等方式，不断提高政府公信力，是增强公众对政府支持和信任的重要举措。提升政策引导力、影响力亦是加强预期管理的内在要求。我国正处在加快转型升级步伐、奋力推进高质量发展的关键期，改革发展稳定任务之艰巨繁重前所未有，政府政策引导和主动调控是推动经济高质量发展的关键，必须强化宏观政策在引导微观主体心理预期和市场行为方面的重要作用。这就要求政府进一步加强政务舆情应对，避免出现预期偏差，确保各项政策能够得到有效实施和广泛接受。

Correctly guiding social expectations focuses on stabilizing consumption expectations and investment expectations. Social expectations refer to the subjective judgments micro entities make about a certain economic indicator or macroeconomic trend based on past experience, existing information, and logical rules, and they are highly sensitive and widely disseminated. Once social expectations are formed, they act on aggregate social demand and aggregate supply through the links of production, exchange, distribution, and consumption, thereby exerting a substantive impact on macroeconomic operations. At present, correctly guiding social expectations focuses on guiding consumption expectations and investment expectations, stimulating potential consumption, expanding effective investment, and forming a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion between consumption and investment. Stabilizing consumption expectations is an effective way to expand domestic demand. Necessary measures should be taken to raise residents' income levels, accelerate the improvement of the social security system, accelerate the improvement of the consumption environment, fully release consumption potential, and give play to the fundamental role of consumption in economic development. Stabilizing investment expectations is an important lever for expanding effective investment and improving investment returns. Stabilizing investment expectations requires both strengthening the driving role of government investment in the whole society's investment and enhancing the investment confidence of enterprises, especially private enterprises, while also stabilizing the real estate market and the stock market.

正确引导社会预期，重在稳定消费预期和投资预期。社会预期是指微观主体基于过往经验、现有信息和逻辑规则等，对某一经济指标或宏观经济趋势作出的主观判断，具有高度敏感性、广泛传播性等。社会预期一旦形成，就会通过生产、交换、分配、消费各个环节作用于社会总需求和总供给，进而对宏观经济运行产生实质影响。当前，正确引导社会预期重在引导消费预期和投资预期，激发有潜能的消费，扩大有效益的投资，形成消费和投资相互促进的良性循环。稳定消费预期是扩大内需的有效途径，应采取必要手段提高居民收入水平，加快完善社会保障体系，加快改善消费环境，充分释放消费潜力，发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用。稳定投资预期是扩大有效投资、提高投资效益的重要抓手，稳定投资预期既要增强政府投资对全社会投资的带动作用，又要增强企业尤其是民营企业的投资信心，还要稳住楼市和股市。

Improving enterprises' market expectations and stabilizing and boosting market confidence are important goals of strengthening expectation management. To further improve enterprise expectations, it is necessary to accelerate the implementation of existing policies, step up the introduction of a package of incremental policies, and address the problem of relatively weak expectations among private enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. Full attention should be paid to such factors affecting private enterprise expectations as policy stability, the fairness of the business environment, and the protection of property rights and the rights and interests of entrepreneurs, supporting private enterprises in strengthening confidence to seek development. At the same time, the special action to deepen and upgrade state-owned enterprise reform [4]4 The special action to deepen and upgrade state-owned enterprise reform refers to a nationwide campaign (2023–2025) to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, improve their efficiency, and strengthen their core functions. should be completed with high quality, promoting the growth and strengthening of state-owned capital and state-owned enterprises, so that the public sector of the economy and the non-public sector complement each other and develop together.

改善企业市场预期，稳定和提振市场信心，是加强预期管理的重要目标。进一步改善企业预期，应加快落实存量政策，加力推出一揽子增量政策，解决民营企业尤其是中小微企业预期偏弱的问题。充分关注政策的稳定性、营商环境的公平性、产权和企业家权益保护等影响民营企业预期的因素，支持民营企业坚定信心谋发展。与此同时，高质量完成国有企业改革深化提升行动，推动国有资本和国有企业做强做优做大，实现公有制经济和非公有制经济相辅相成、相得益彰。

3. Strengthening Expectation Management Lies in Improving the Expectation Management Mechanism

3.加强预期管理重在健全预期管理机制

When making important arrangements for "improving the macroeconomic governance system," the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC [5]5 The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC was held in July 2024; such plenary sessions typically focus on major reform and development strategies. explicitly emphasized "improving the expectation management mechanism." This is a clear requirement for strengthening expectation management from the perspective of institutional development, closely following the overall goal of "continuing to improve and develop the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics and advancing the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity." In light of the key tasks and work requirements for strengthening expectation management, improving the expectation management mechanism should mainly proceed from the following aspects.

党的二十届三中全会在对“健全宏观经济治理体系”作出重要部署时，明确强调“健全预期管理机制”。这是紧扣“继续完善和发展中国特色社会主义制度，推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化”的总目标，从制度建设角度对加强预期管理提出的明确要求。结合加强预期管理的重点任务和工作要求，健全预期管理机制主要应从以下几方面入手。

Improve the policy system for expectation management. To achieve a balance and unity between the holistic and long-term objectives of expectation management and its partial and phased objectives, it is necessary to strengthen top-level institutional design and further optimize and improve the policy system for expectation management. First, fully attach importance to the strategic guiding role of national development plans, do a good job in connecting and interacting expectation management with development strategies, development plans, and annual plans, and ensure the execution and implementation of various key tasks. Second, continuously enrich the policy toolbox for expectation management. Focus on researching and reserving policy tools with expectation-guiding effects, promptly introduce new policy measures when appropriate, expand policy coverage, and ensure the ability to respond to various types of unexpected changes that may occur. Third, improve the policy coordination mechanism for expectation management. Strengthen communication and exchange among departments in policy formulation, consultation, and implementation, enhance policy coordination and cooperation, and ensure that macro policy orientations are consistent and efforts are coordinated.

健全预期管理的政策体系。为实现预期管理的整体性、长远性与局部性、阶段性等目标的平衡和统一，必须加强顶层制度设计，进一步优化和完善预期管理政策体系。一是充分重视国家发展规划的战略导向作用，做好预期管理与发展战略、发展规划、年度计划的衔接与互动，抓好各项重点任务的执行与落实。二是不断丰富预期管理的政策工具箱。注重研究和储备具有预期引导效果的政策工具，适时推动出台新的政策举措，扩大政策覆盖面，确保有能力应对可能出现的各类超预期变化。三是完善预期管理的政策协调机制。加强部门间政策制定协商和执行方面的交流沟通，强化政策协调配合，确保宏观政策取向一致和协同发力。

Improve the indicator system for expectation management. First, increase the application of quantitative indicators in expectation management. Compared with qualitative descriptions, using quantifiable indicators for expectation management can reflect economic operation more directly and objectively, guiding the public to form reasonable expectations about economic development. Second, make full use of composite indicators with rich meanings. At present, the interweaving of various factors has increased the complexity of economic situation analysis, and a single indicator is hard to depict economic uncertainty. More comprehensive indicators should be used to assess the level and trend of economic development. Third, further develop indicators with clear directional implications. Make full use of indicators with clear directional implications, such as prosperity indices, confidence indices, and financial conditions indices, to convey the intentions of macroeconomic regulation to society and enhance the effectiveness of pre-emptive and fine-tuning adjustments in macroeconomic regulation.

健全预期管理的指标体系。一是增加量化指标在预期管理中的应用。相较于定性描述，采用可量化的指标进行预期管理能够更直接、客观地反映经济运行情况，引导公众形成关于经济发展的合理预期。二是充分利用具有丰富含义的综合性指标。当前，各种因素交织增加了经济形势分析的复杂性，单一指标难以刻画经济的不确定性，应更多利用综合性指标评估经济发展的水平和趋势。三是进一步开发指向性明确的指标。充分利用景气指数、信心指数和金融条件指数等指向性明确的指标，向社会传递宏观调控意图，提升宏观调控预调、微调的有效性。

Improve regular tracking and communication mechanisms. Continuously reduce information asymmetry between the government and the public, guiding public expectations to converge on policy objectives. First, improve information acquisition mechanisms. Use multiple channels and tools to conduct real-time tracking and analysis of information, promptly understand public expectations, and listen to the interest demands of different entities. Second, improve proactive communication mechanisms. The government should adhere to information transparency and openness, providing timely and accurate policy interpretation. Third, increase the intensity of publicity on economic work. Fully leverage the role of mainstream media in unifying thinking and guiding public opinion, especially when markets experience sharp fluctuations, promptly use the influence of the media to ease investor anxiety and reduce market volatility.

健全常态跟踪与沟通机制。不断减少政府与公众之间的信息不对称，引导公众预期向政策目标靠拢。一是完善信息获取机制。综合运用多种渠道、工具做好信息的实时跟踪和分析工作，及时了解公众预期、倾听不同主体利益诉求。二是完善主动沟通机制。政府应坚持信息公开透明，及时准确进行政策解读。三是加大对经济工作的宣传力度。充分发挥主流媒体统一思想、引导舆论的作用，尤其是在市场出现剧烈波动时，及时利用媒体的影响力来消除投资者紧张情绪，减少市场波动。

Improve expectation early warning and risk identification mechanisms. First, improve long-term working mechanisms. Incorporate the management of inflation expectation, deflation expectation, and expectations for finance and capital markets into the macroeconomic monitoring and early warning system, continuously monitoring expectation changes. Second, scientifically set monitoring indicators and warning intervals for expectation early warning. Based on the practical experience of expectation management, set both basic indicators that require long-term monitoring and characteristic indicators that can reflect changes in the macroeconomic development situation, ensuring that expectation management is consistent with the objectives of macroeconomic governance.

健全预期预警和风险识别机制。一是完善长效工作机制。将治理通货膨胀预期管理、治理通货紧缩预期管理，以及对金融、资本市场的预期管理等工作纳入宏观经济监测和预警体系之中，持续关注预期变化。二是科学设置预期预警的监测指标和预警区间。既要基于预期管理的实践经验，设置需要长期进行监测的基础性指标，又要设置一些能够反映宏观经济发展状况变化的特征性指标，确保预期管理与宏观经济治理的目标相一致。

(Authors: Lin Muxi and Wang Cong, respectively researchers at the Research Centre for the Theoretical System of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, Liaoning University, and Director of the National Economic Research Institute; Postdoctoral Fellow at the School of Economics, Liaoning University)

（作者：林木西、王聪，分别系辽宁大学中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心研究员、国民经济研究院院长，辽宁大学经济学院博士后）

Online editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧