Effectively Integrating the Stimulation of Consumption with the Improvement of Investment Efficiency

The first priority task for 2025 set by the Central Economic Work Conference in 2024[1]1 Central Economic Work Conference: An annual high-level meeting of the Chinese Communist Party and government that sets the economic policy priorities for the following year. is "vigorously stimulate consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all respects." Currently, the main difficulty facing China's economic operation is insufficient domestic demand. Promoting the effective integration of stimulating consumption and improving investment efficiency can not only solve the current insufficiency of domestic demand but also help form a virtuous cycle in which consumption and investment reinforce each other, promoting a high-level dynamic balance between supply and demand.

2024年中央经济工作会议部署2025年重点任务的第一项，就是“大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求”。当前，我国经济运行面临的主要困难是国内需求不足。推动提振消费与提高投资效益的有效结合，既能破解当前的内需不足问题，也有助于形成消费与投资相互促进的良性循环，推动供给与需求的高水平动态平衡。

Accurately Understanding the Contribution Rate of Consumption and Investment to GDP

准确理解消费和投资对国内生产总值的贡献率

There are several methods for calculating GDP, including the production approach, the income approach, and the expenditure approach. Theoretically, the results from different methods should be identical, but due to differences in calculation principles and data collection, some deviations may occur. The well-known method that regards consumption, investment, and net exports as the "three engines" driving economic growth adopts the expenditure approach. The basic premise of the expenditure approach is that for the entire economy, income must equal expenditure. This method divides the economy into four sectors from the perspective of demand for goods and services: the household sector, the enterprise sector, the government sector, and the international sector. The sum of expenditures of these four sectors equals the GDP for the year. That is, a country's GDP over a given period equals the sum of final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services. Final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation are often called domestic demand, while net exports are called external demand.

国内生产总值有几种计算方法，包括生产法、收入法、支出法等，理论上讲，不同方法计算的结果应该是相同的，但由于计算原则和数据收集等的不同，不同方法的计算结果会存在一些偏差。人们所熟悉的把消费、投资和净出口称为拉动经济增长“三驾马车”的方法，采用的是支出法。支出法的基本依据是：对于整个经济体来说，收入必定等于支出。该方法将一国经济从对产品和服务需求的角度划分为四个部门，即家庭部门、企业部门、政府部门和国际部门，将这四个部门的支出额加总，就是当年的国内生产总值。亦即：一定时期内一国的国内生产总值等于最终消费支出、资本形成总额、货物和服务净出口的总和，最终消费支出和资本形成总额通常被称为内需，净出口被称为外需。

Using the expenditure approach to evaluate the contribution rate of the "three engines" to economic growth tends to overestimate the contribution of final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation to GDP, and underestimate the contribution of exports. The reason is that imported consumer goods and investment goods are deducted when calculating net exports, not when calculating net consumption and net investment. Final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation include not only domestically produced goods and services but also imports; these imported consumer goods and investment goods cannot be counted as contributions to domestic GDP, but the expenditure approach does not deduct them when calculating final consumption expenditure, which leads to an overestimation of the contribution of consumption and investment (i.e., domestic demand) to GDP. The actual domestic demand is smaller than the statistical figure. When calculating external demand (i.e., net imports), the expenditure approach subtracts total imports from total exports; imported consumer goods and investment goods are deducted when calculating net exports. It should be noted that China's foreign trade is no longer the processing trade that was "both ends abroad"[2]2 "both ends abroad": A term describing the processing trade model where raw materials are imported and finished products are exported, with limited domestic value addition.; general trade[3]3 general trade: A trade category where products are independently produced and exported by Chinese firms, as opposed to processing trade. now accounts for over 64% of the total, and the added value of exported products is increasingly created domestically. Therefore, treating net exports as external demand underestimates the contribution of exports to GDP. At a time when the external demand environment is relatively difficult, on the one hand, we should continue to improve the quantity and quality of exports and strengthen the supporting role of exports; on the other hand, we must make greater efforts to stimulate domestic demand, giving full play to the fundamental role of consumption and the key role of investment in a coordinated manner.

采用支出法来评价“三驾马车”对经济增长贡献率，会在一定程度上高估最终消费支出和资本形成总额对国内生产总值的贡献，低估出口对国内生产总值的贡献。其原因是，进口的消费品和投资品在计算净出口而非净消费和净投资时被扣除了。最终消费支出和资本形成总额不全是来自本国生产的产品和劳务，还会来自进口，这部分进口的消费品和投资品不能算进对本国国内生产总值的贡献，但支出法在计算最终消费支出时并没有对其进行扣除，这导致支出法会在一定程度上高估消费和投资（即内需）对国内生产总值的贡献，实际的内需比统计口径的要少。支出法在计算外需即净进口时，是用出口总额减去进口总额，进口的消费品和投资品在计算净出口时被扣除了。应当看到，当前我国外贸早已不是“两头在外”的加工贸易，一般贸易占比已超过64%，出口产品的附加值更多是由国内创造，因此将净出口视为外需会低估出口对国内生产总值的贡献。在当前外需环境比较艰难的时刻，一方面应继续提升出口的数量和质量，强化出口的支撑作用，另一方面，必须下更大力气提振内需，统筹发挥消费的基础性作用和投资的关键性作用。

Stimulating Consumption Must Be Supported by Improving Investment Efficiency

提振消费要以提高投资效益作为支撑

To stimulate consumption, it is necessary to increase consumption expenditure by the government and residents. Government consumption expenditure comes from fiscal revenue and government bonds; resident consumption expenditure comes from resident income and bank loans. When consumption is in a relatively low equilibrium state, stimulating consumption can either activate previously unmet consumption potential by innovating consumption products and scenarios, or break the existing equilibrium by increasing the consumption expenditure of consuming entities, thereby raising the level of consumption. Increasing consumption expenditure includes increasing income and increasing debt. The government mainly expands consumption expenditure by increasing fiscal revenue, expanding fiscal deficits, and issuing government bonds; residents mainly expand consumption expenditure by increasing resident income and bank loans. Trade-in programs for consumer goods and various types of consumption subsidies are essentially government transfer payments, which increase resident consumption expenditure by reducing consumption costs and, to some extent, shift government public consumption to resident consumption. In equilibrium, stimulating consumption first requires addressing the question of where the money for increased consumption expenditure comes from. It must be emphasized that whether increasing income or increasing debt, it requires improving investment returns as support. From this perspective, consumption is past investment, and investment is future consumption.

提振消费，需要加大政府和居民的消费支出。政府消费支出来自财政收入和政府债券，居民消费支出来自居民收入和银行贷款。当消费处于相对较低的均衡状态时，提振消费要么通过创新消费产品和消费场景来激活之前未被满足的消费潜能，要么通过增加消费主体的消费支出来打破现有均衡，提升消费水平。增加消费支出，包括增加收入和增加负债。政府主要通过增加财政收入、扩大财政赤字和发行政府债券来扩大消费支出，居民主要通过增加居民收入和银行贷款来扩大消费支出。消费品以旧换新和各类消费补贴，本质上是政府的转移支付，通过降低消费成本增加居民消费支出，在一定程度上是将政府的公共消费转向居民消费。在均衡状态下，提振消费首先需要解决的是增加消费支出的货币从哪里来的问题。需要强调的是，无论增加收入还是增加负债，都需要以提高投资收益作为支撑。从这个角度讲，消费是过去的投资，投资是未来的消费。

Currently, government consumption accounts for about 30% of China's final consumption, and public consumption is an important component of final consumption. To stimulate consumption by increasing government public consumption, we can moderately raise the fiscal deficit ratio and issue special government bonds, closely integrating the stimulation of consumption with filling the gaps in people's livelihoods, increasing expenditure levels on public services such as education, healthcare, elderly care, and childcare, thereby leveraging the multiplier effect of public consumption to drive the development of related livelihood service industries, moderately raise the level of social security, and reduce precautionary savings.

当前我国政府消费占最终消费的比重大约在30%，公共消费是最终消费的重要组成部分。通过增加政府公共消费来提振消费，可以通过适度提高财政赤字率和发行政府专项债，将提振消费与补足民生短板紧密结合起来，提高教育、医疗、养老、育幼等公共服务的支出水平，进而发挥公共消费的乘数效应，带动相关民生服务行业的发展，适度提高社会保障水平，降低预防性储蓄。

Increasing resident consumption is the main battleground for stimulating consumption. Income is a key factor affecting resident consumption; to stimulate resident consumption, we should first raise residents' income and income expectations. In 2024, the real growth rates of per capita consumption expenditure and per capita disposable income of Chinese residents were both 5.1%, and per capita consumption expenditure accounted for 68.3% of per capita disposable income. Considering the differences in marginal propensity to consume among different income groups, promoting income growth and reducing burdens for low- and middle-income groups is particularly crucial for stimulating consumption. In 2024, wage income, net business income, net transfer income, and net property income as proportions of per capita disposable income were 56.5%, 16.7%, 18.5%, and 8.3%, respectively. To increase wage income, it is necessary to improve investment efficiency, increase the cooperative surplus between labor and capital, and meanwhile distribute the cooperative surplus properly, raising the share of labor remuneration in primary distribution and the share of resident income in national income distribution, thereby stabilizing residents' income growth expectations. To increase net business income, it is necessary to improve residents' returns from business investment. To increase net transfer income, it is necessary to increase fiscal subsidies for durable consumer goods and increase transfer payments to resident consumption. With the widespread application of digital technology and artificial intelligence, big data analysis can be used to create precise consumer profiles, provide personalized consumer financial services for people at different life cycle stages, grasp trends in residents' consumption habits, and take effective measures to convert consumption potential into actual consumption momentum.

提高居民消费是提振消费的主阵地。收入是影响居民消费的关键因素，提振居民消费首先应提高居民的收入及收入预期。2024年我国居民人均消费支出和人均可支配收入的实际增长率均为5.1%，人均消费支出占人均可支配收入的68.3%。考虑到不同收入群体边际消费倾向的差异，推动中低收入群体增收减负对于提振消费尤为关键。2024年人均工资性收入、经营净收入、转移净收入和财产净收入占人均可支配收入的比重分别为56.5%、16.7%、18.5%、8.3%。提高工资性收入，需要提高投资效益，增加劳动与资本的合作剩余，同时分配好合作剩余，提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重，以及居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重，稳定居民的收入增长预期。提高经营净收入，需要提高居民的经营性投资收益。提高转移净收入，需要加大财政对耐用消费品的补贴力度，增加对居民消费的转移支付。随着数字技术和人工智能技术的广泛应用，可以通过大数据分析对消费者进行精准画像，针对处于不同生命周期阶段人群提供个性化的消费金融服务，把握居民消费习惯变化趋势，采取有效措施将消费潜能转变为实际消费动能。

Improving Investment Efficiency Must Be Driven by Stimulating Consumption

提高投资效益要以提振消费作为牵引

Improving investment efficiency requires enhancing the economic returns of fixed asset investment, avoiding blind duplicate investments and inefficient investments. This is a key focus for expanding domestic demand and also an important measure to rectify "involution-style"[4]4 involution-style competition: A term describing excessive competition that leads to diminishing returns and inefficiency, often used in Chinese policy discourse to criticize redundant investments and zero-sum rivalries. competition. Improving investment efficiency should be driven by stimulating consumption; the productive capacity formed by new fixed asset investment must be compatible with the consumption level and consumption structure upgrading under the unified national market.

提高投资效益需要提高固定资产投资的经济效益，避免盲目重复投资和低效投资，这是当前扩大内需需要关注的重点，也是整治“内卷式”竞争的重要举措。提高投资效益应以提振消费作为牵引，新增固定资产投资形成的生产力必须能够与全国统一大市场下的消费水平和消费结构升级相适应。

Fixed asset investment includes government investment and social investment. First, government investment should increase support for the renewal of traditional infrastructure and the construction of new infrastructure, improving the consumption environment by enhancing consumption conditions and innovating consumption scenarios, making consumption more convenient and experiential; it should fill the shortcomings in rural consumption infrastructure and public service facilities, upgrade intercity transportation, logistics, municipal infrastructure, etc., and strengthen new infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, industrial internet, and the Internet of Things. Second, to further improve investment efficiency, fixed asset investment should be focused on upgrading traditional consumption levels, expanding improvement-type consumption such as cultural entertainment and tourism, sports events, education and training, and smart homes, and cultivating technological transformation and equipment renewal for new types of consumption such as digital consumption, green consumption, and health consumption. This includes investments in urban renewal, redevelopment of urban villages and dilapidated housing, renovation of old urban residential communities, technological transformation and equipment renewal in key industries, equipment renewal in construction and municipal infrastructure, renewal of transportation equipment and old agricultural machinery, renewal of equipment in education, cultural tourism, and medical care, as well as digital transformation such as industrial internet and digitalization of lifestyle services, green transformation such as carbon reduction, pollution reduction, and greening, and fields such as integrated medical and elderly care and "Internet + healthcare". Third, improving investment efficiency requires promoting reforms in the investment and financing system and mechanism. The evaluation mechanism for the efficiency of government investment should be further improved to enhance the efficiency of government public investment; a system for evaluating the performance of state-owned enterprises in fulfilling their strategic missions should be established more quickly, and a classified evaluation system for the investment efficiency of state-owned enterprises should be improved; the fiscal-financial linkage mechanism should be improved, leveraging the guiding role of government investment signals to effectively drive social investment through government investment.

固定资产投资包括政府投资和社会投资。首先，政府投资应加大力度支持传统基础设施更新和新型基础设施建设，通过改善消费条件和创新消费场景，优化消费环境，让消费更加便利、更有体验感；补齐农村消费基础设施和公共服务设施建设短板，提升城际交通、物流、市政基础设施等，加强人工智能、工业互联网、物联网等新型基础设施建设。其次，进一步提高投资效益，应将固定资产投资聚焦于提升传统消费水平，壮大文娱旅游、体育赛事、教育培训、智能家居等改善型消费，培育数字消费、绿色消费和健康消费等新型消费的技术改造和设备更新。包括城市更新、城中村和危旧房改造、城镇老旧小区改造、重点行业技术改造和设备更新、建筑和市政基础设施领域设备更新、交通运输设备和老旧农业机械更新、教育文旅医疗设备更新，以及产业互联网和生活服务数字化等数字转型、降碳减污扩绿等绿色转型、医养结合和“互联网+医疗健康”等领域的投资。再次，提高投资效益需要推动投融资体制机制改革。应进一步健全政府投资的效益评价机制，提高政府公共投资效率；加快建立国有企业履行战略使命评价制度，完善国有企业投资效益分类考核评价体系；完善财金联动机制，发挥政府投资信号传递的因势利导作用，以政府投资有效带动社会投资。

The role of increasing investment is not only to expand domestic demand but also crucial for upgrading the supply structure. Improving investment returns can both expand effective investment and enhance total factor productivity through technological transformation, equipment renewal, and infrastructure improvement, updating old drivers and cultivating new growth drivers. Investment takes meeting consumption as its ultimate purpose and driving force; it is not only driven by consumption stimulation but also an important support for stimulating consumption. To promote the effective integration of stimulating consumption and improving investment efficiency, on the one hand, we must give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, achieving optimal resource allocation and maximum efficiency; on the other hand, we need to leverage the role of an effective government[5]5 effective government: In Chinese economic discourse, a government that actively intervenes to guide economic development and correct market failures, as opposed to a laissez-faire approach. to expand domestic demand in all respects through fiscal and monetary policies. Ultimately, the government and the market form a joint force, coordinating fiscal policy, monetary policy, industrial policy, and market competition policy, while expanding domestic demand, promoting the optimization of the supply structure, and achieving a high-level dynamic balance between supply and demand.

增加投资的作用不仅仅是扩大内需，对于供给结构的升级也极为重要。提高投资收益既能够扩大有效投资，还能够通过技术改造和设备更新、完善基础设施等提升全要素生产率，更新旧动能，培育新动能。投资以满足消费为最终目的和动力，不仅受到提振消费的牵引，也是提振消费的重要支撑。推动提振消费和提高投资效益的有效结合，一方面必须充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用，实现资源配置最优化和效益最大化，另一方面需要发挥有为政府的作用，通过财政政策和货币政策全方位扩大内需，最终，政府与市场形成合力，发挥出财政政策、货币政策、产业政策与市场竞争政策的协同作用，在扩大内需的同时推动供给结构优化，实现供需高水平动态平衡。

(Author: Huang Kainan, researcher at the Shandong Provincial Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era[6]6 Shandong Provincial Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era: A provincial-level official think tank dedicated to studying and promoting Xi Jinping's political thought., and Vice President of the Party School of the Shandong Provincial Committee of the CPC (Shandong Academy of Governance)[7]7 Party School of the Shandong Provincial Committee of the CPC (Shandong Academy of Governance): The main institution for training Party cadres and government officials in Shandong Province.)

（作者：黄凯南，系山东省习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心研究员、山东省委党校〔行政学院〕副校〔院〕长）

Online editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧