Turning Long-Term Positive Fundamentals into Results of High-Quality Development

Facing chronic ills and short-term shocks, on the basis of fully recognizing difficulties, pressures, risks and hidden dangers, we must see that China's economy has a stable foundation, many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential, and that the supporting conditions and basic trend of long-term improvement have not changed. Currently, it is particularly important to distinguish priorities from less urgent matters, insist on addressing both symptoms and root causes, reasonably guide expectations, and turn the fundamentals of long-term improvement into tangible results of high-quality development.

面对痼疾和短期冲击，在充分认识到困难、压力、风险隐患的基础上，要看到中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变。当前，尤其要分清轻重缓急、坚持标本兼治、合理引导预期，将长期向好的基本面转化为实实在在的高质量发展成果。

Pay attention to nominal growth—

重视名义增长——

Looking back at 2021, the Party Central Committee clearly designated the 14th Five-Year Plan and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 as programmatic documents guiding national economic and social development for the next five and fifteen years, reflecting our Party's determination to carry the blueprint through to completion.[1]1 A common expression meaning "carry the blueprint through to the end," emphasizing consistent implementation of long-term plans. Achieving basic socialist modernization by 2035 is the result of high-quality economic and social development, and there are some quantitative indicators that need to be clarified. For example, by the end of the 16th Five-Year Plan period,[2]2 The 16th Five-Year Plan period (2031–2035), part of China's five-year planning system for national development. China's per capita GDP must reach the level of moderately developed countries, which requires the economic growth rate to be maintained at a relatively reasonable level.

回首2021年，中央明确将“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标纲要作为指导接下来5年及15年国民经济和社会发展的纲领性文件，体现了我们党一张蓝图绘到底的决心。2035年基本实现社会主义现代化是经济社会高质量发展的结果，其中有一些需要明确的量化指标。比如，到“十六五”末，中国人均国内生产总值要达到中等发达国家水平，需要经济增长速度保持在一个相对合理的水平之上。

Maintaining sustained nominal growth not only allows economic entities to form good expectations but also helps consolidate a country's exchange rate level. Reality shows that the relationship between a country's price level, interest rate and exchange rate has never been a simple linear relationship. Currently, implementing more proactive and effective macro policies to stimulate nominal output is conducive to the stability of the renminbi exchange rate.

保持持续的名义增长，不仅可以让经济主体形成良好的预期，还有助于巩固一国汇率水平。现实表明，一国物价、利率与汇率水平之间从来就不是简单的线性关系。当前，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，激活名义产出，有利于人民币汇率稳定。

But we must also clearly recognize that the nominal growth rate depends on the sum of real growth and inflation. Moderate inflation helps output show positive growth in both nominal and real terms; hyperinflation and cost-push growth are not only unsustainable but will also bring harmful consequences to the economy and society. This is precisely why the Party Central Committee, when emphasizing demand-driven growth, has repeatedly mentioned "establishing the new before abolishing the old"[3]3 A policy principle meaning "establish the new before abolishing the old," often used in the context of economic transformation and replacing outdated production capacity with new quality productive forces. and developing new quality productive forces. When stimulating demand, we must ensure high-quality development on the supply side to form a virtuous cycle in the national economy.

但也要清醒认识到，名义增速取决于实际增长和通胀之和。温和的通胀，有助于产出在名义和实际水平上呈现正向增长；恶性通胀和成本推动型带来的增长不仅不可持续，还会给经济社会带来恶果。这也是中央在强调需求拉动时多次提及先立后破、发展新质生产力的原因所在。在需求拉动时，一定要注重确保供给面的高质量发展，形成国民经济的良性循环。

Make good use of policy tools—

利用好政策工具——

Implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, "raising the fiscal deficit ratio, ensuring that fiscal policy continues to exert force and becomes more effective," shows that we have a deeper understanding of the relationship between debt and growth, meaning that we need to set up a more scientific debt ceiling constraint mechanism. Currently, output growth is below the potential growth rate and interest rates are relatively low, so we have the conditions to use fiscal expansion to promote economic growth.

实施更加积极的财政政策，“提高财政赤字率，确保财政政策持续用力、更加给力”，表明我们更加深刻地理解了债务与增长的关系，意味着要更为科学地设置债务上限约束机制。当前，产出增速低于潜在增速且利率水平较低，我们有条件通过财政扩张来促进经济增长。

Implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthening unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment demonstrate the Party Central Committee's scientific judgment of the economic situation and its policy determination based on that judgment. A moderately loose monetary policy is expected to provide more ample liquidity to the economic and financial system, improve the availability of funds, and reduce financing costs, thereby providing necessary support for the economy to regain vitality. Previously, the People's Bank of China has repeatedly implemented reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Guided by the policy direction, 2025 will see larger reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts.

实施适度宽松的货币政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，表明中央对经济形势的科学判断，并在此基础上下定了政策决心。适度宽松的货币政策有望给经济金融体系提供更为充裕的流动性，提升资金可得性，降低融资成本，从而为经济恢复活力提供必要支撑。此前，人民银行已多次实施降准降息。在政策方针的引导下，2025年将迎来更大幅度的降准降息。

On the basis of the Party Central Committee's specific requirements for each area of macro-control, various departments should focus on executing a policy "combination punch."[4]4 A metaphor meaning a combination of policies or measures used together for greater effect, literally "combination punch." In recent years, the Party Central Committee has repeatedly called for enhancing the consistency of macro policy orientations and has stressed the coordination and cooperation between fiscal policy and monetary policy. In a certain sense, the coordination and cooperation of these two major policies has gone beyond the choice of policy orientation and entered the deep-water zone of policy transmission mechanisms and operational process coordination.[5]5 A metaphor meaning "deep-water zone," referring to a stage where reforms face complex and difficult challenges.

在中央对宏观调控各领域提出具体要求的基础上，各部门应当注重打好政策“组合拳”。近年来，中央多次提出要增强宏观政策取向的一致性，并突出强调了财政政策与货币政策的协调配合。从一定意义上说，这两大政策的协调配合已超越政策取向的选择，而进入政策传导机制和操作流程配合的深水区。

Currently, aggregate demand has been significantly suppressed, and loose monetary policy alone cannot effectively boost aggregate demand; fiscal policy needs to directly spend to generate real demand. Under normal circumstances, fiscal spending requires raising funds, and the government must issue bonds, a process that requires the cooperation of the financial sector. At the same time, the yield curve formed by government bonds becomes the cornerstone of pricing for the entire financial system. Previously, the People's Bank of China's routine purchase of government bonds through open market operations is a vivid example of the coordination of these two policies, fully reflecting the continuous maturation of macro-control concepts and means and the deepening understanding of the regularity of economic work.

当前，总需求出现了明显抑制，仅靠宽松的货币政策已无法有效拉动总需求，需要财政政策直接进行支出以形成现实的需求。通常情况下，财政支出需筹集资金，政府要进行债券发行，这一过程就需要金融部门的配合。与此同时，政府债券所形成的收益率曲线又成为整个金融体系定价的基石。此前，人民银行通过公开市场操作常规性购入国债就是这两大政策配合的鲜活案例，充分体现了宏观调控理念和调控手段的不断成熟以及对经济工作规律性认识的不断深化。

Taking stimulating consumption as the driving force—

以激活消费为牵引——

In recent years, China's consumption expenditure as a share of GDP has remained basically around 55%. Among this, household consumption accounts for nearly 40% of GDP, and government consumption accounts for about 16% of GDP. The share of household consumption in China's GDP is not only far lower than the United States' approximately 68% but also lower than Japan's 55% and South Korea's around 50%. Using consumption to drive aggregate demand can be said to be taking hold of the bull by the nose.[6]6 A common Chinese idiom meaning "taking hold of the bull by the nose," referring to grasping the key point or crucial link.

近年来，中国消费支出占GDP的比重基本维持在55%左右。其中，居民消费占GDP的比重接近40%，政府消费占GDP比重为16%左右。中国居民消费占GDP的比重不仅远低于美国的68%左右，也低于日本、韩国的55%和50%左右。抓住消费来拉动总需求，应该说是牵住了牛鼻子。

In 2025, the state will allocate more funds for special campaigns to boost consumption, include more consumer goods in the scope of support, and optimize the subsidy distribution process. While helping to improve marginal consumption, more attention should be paid to the continuous enhancement of consumption capacity. Among these, stabilizing income expectations is the top priority, and improving the income distribution system is a logical requirement. At the same time, building a more complete social safety net will convert more savings pressure into consumption power, and continuously raise residents' consumption capacity, willingness, and level.

2025年，国家将安排更多资金用于提振消费专项行动，把更多消费品纳入支持范围，并优化补贴发放流程。在助推边际消费改善的同时，还应更加注重消费能力的持续提升。其中，稳定收入预期是重中之重，完善收入分配制度是题中应有之义。同时，构建更为完善的社会保障网，将更多的储蓄压力转化为消费动力，并不断提升居民消费能力、意愿和层级。

Another factor affecting household consumption that must be mentioned is the wealth effect. According to the analysis in "China's National Balance Sheet 1978–2022" published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the total assets of Chinese households reached 564 trillion yuan by the end of 2022, and after deducting liabilities, net assets, total wealth was close to 482 trillion yuan. Total wealth increased by 2,280 times compared to 1978, with an average annual compound growth rate of 19.2%. Currently, household total assets are mainly composed of housing assets and financial assets. By the end of 2022, these two types of assets reached 267 trillion yuan and 277 trillion yuan respectively. If asset prices fluctuate sharply, it will inevitably impact households' wealth status, thereby affecting their consumption willingness. From this perspective, we should be able to more fully understand the profound meaning of "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, and maintaining the stability of the financial market."

影响居民消费的因素，另外一个不得不提的是财富效应。根据中国社会科学院发布的《中国国家资产负债表1978—2022》分析，中国居民的总资产2022年底已达到564万亿元，扣除负债的净资产，总财富接近482万亿元。财富总量相较于1978年增长2280倍，年均复合增速达到19.2%。当前，居民总资产主要由住房资产和金融资产构成。2022年底，上述两项资产分别达到267万亿元和277万亿元。如果资产价格大幅波动，必然会对居民的财富状况产生冲击，从而影响居民消费意愿。从这个意义上看，我们应该能够更为全面地理解“稳住楼市股市，维护金融市场稳定”的深刻含义。

Another noteworthy figure is the international comparison of the ratio of household debt to disposable income. Since the global financial crisis, this ratio in China has been rising continuously. This shows that even if an accommodative financial environment is provided, the space for households to use debt to expand consumption is actually still constrained. In order to create a more virtuous and healthy national economic cycle, it is necessary to steadily increase the share of household disposable income in national income distribution, ultimately maintaining a steady increase in household consumption capacity and willingness through the dual enhancement of income and wealth.

另外一个值得关注的数据，就是居民债务占可支配收入比重的国际比较。国际金融危机以来，中国的这一比值持续上升。这表明，即使提供宽松的金融环境，居民利用债务去扩大消费的空间实际上依然受到制约。为了营造更加良性健康的国民经济循环，有必要稳步提升居民可支配收入在国民收入分配中的占比，最终通过收入和财富的双重提升，保持居民消费能力和消费意愿的稳步提升。

(The author is Deputy Director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, and a Distinguished Researcher at the Shanghai Academy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences – Shanghai Municipal People's Government.)

（作者为国家金融与发展实验室副主任、中国社会科学院—上海市人民政府上海研究院特约研究员）

Online Editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧