Consolidate and Expand the Systemic Advantages of High-Quality Development during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30 stressed that "the 15th Five-Year Plan period[1]1 The 15th Five-Year Plan period refers to the years 2026–2030. is a critical period for consolidating the foundation and making full efforts to basically realize socialist modernization", and that it is necessary to "promote major breakthroughs in strategic tasks that are vital to the overall situation of Chinese-path modernization" and "ensure decisive progress in basically realizing socialist modernization." As a strategic decisive period for marching toward the second centenary goal[2]2 The second centenary goal is the goal of building China into a great modern socialist country by the middle of the 21st century (around the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 2049). and basically realizing socialist modernization, the scientific grasp of its historical orientation and the consolidation and expansion of its systemic advantages are of great significance for seizing strategic initiative, building a new development pattern, and ensuring the steady and sustained progress of Chinese-path modernization.

7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议强调，“‘十五五’时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期”，要“推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突破”“确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展”。“十五五”时期作为迈向第二个百年奋斗目标、基本实现社会主义现代化的战略决胜期，其历史方位的科学把握与体系优势的巩固扩大，对于把握战略主动、构建新发展格局、确保中国式现代化行稳致远具有重要意义。

The historical orientation of the 15th Five-Year Plan period

“十五五”时期所处的历史方位

The meeting of the Political Bureau pointed out that the 15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical period for consolidating the foundation and making full efforts to basically realize socialist modernization, clarifying the historical orientation of the 15th Five-Year Plan period in the great cause of comprehensively advancing the building of a strong country and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through Chinese-path modernization.

中央政治局会议指出，“十五五”时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，明确了“十五五”时期在以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业中的历史方位。

A strategic decisive period that inherits the past and ushers in the future, accumulating a solid foundation and building up momentum.[3]3 “Inheriting the past and ushering in the future, accumulating a solid foundation and building up momentum” (承前启后、积厚成势) is a four-character idiom combination indicating a strategic stage of transition and accumulation. From a temporal perspective, the 15th Five-Year Plan period builds on the deep accumulation of more than 40 years of reform and opening up and the in-depth implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan,[4]4 The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) is China’s national development plan for that period. and leads to the goal of basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035, bearing the heavy responsibility of laying the foundation for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries.[5]5 “Moderately developed countries” here refers to countries with per capita GDP around US$30,000, typically considered the threshold for high-income status. According to calculations, in 2024 China’s per capita GDP reached 95,749 yuan (approximately US$13,400). To achieve the goal of raising per capita GDP to the level of moderately developed countries (around US$30,000) by 2035, an average annual economic growth rate of over 4.5% needs to be maintained. This means that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, not only must the economic growth rate be kept within a reasonable range, but a historic leap must also be achieved in qualitative breakthroughs, with efforts focused on solving the problems of unbalanced and inadequate development, laying a solid foundation and building up momentum for long-term development.

承前启后、积厚成势的战略决胜期。从时间节点上看，“十五五”时期上承改革开放40余年的深厚积淀与“十四五”规划的深入实施，下启2035年基本实现社会主义现代化目标，承担着为人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平奠定基础的重任。据统计，2024年我国人均GDP达95749元（约1.34万美元），要实现2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平（3万美元左右）的目标，需要保持年均4.5%以上的经济增速。这意味着“十五五”期间不仅要将经济增长速度保持在合理区间，更要在质的突破上实现历史性跨越，着力破解发展不平衡不充分问题，为长远发展夯基垒台、积厚成势。

A strategic breakthrough period for responding to global changes. From the perspective of the international environment, the world is undergoing changes unseen in a century at an accelerating pace. China faces both historic opportunities brought by a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and the challenge of increased risk of technology decoupling amid intensified major-power rivalry. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the global political and economic landscape will accelerate its evolution, displaying three superimposed characteristics. First, geopolitical risks are rising, unilateralism and protectionism are gaining ground, and industrial and supply chains are under pressure to restructure. Second, scientific and technological competition is becoming white-hot; China must accelerate the pace of achieving high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and break through key core technologies. Third, global economic recovery is weak, economic cycles are becoming more volatile, the global economy is undergoing deep adjustment, and the divergence in growth among different countries is becoming more pronounced. In April 2025, the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% at the beginning of the year to 2.8%. This downward pressure on the global economy has increased the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of China’s development.

应对全球变局的战略突围期。从国际环境看，世界百年未有之大变局加速演进，我国既面临新一轮科技革命和产业变革带来的历史性机遇，也需应对大国博弈加剧下技术脱钩风险加大的挑战。“十五五”时期全球政治经济格局加速演变，将呈现三重叠加特征。一是地缘政治风险上升，单边主义、保护主义抬头，产业链供应链面临重构压力。二是科技竞争白热化，我国必须加快高水平科技自立自强步伐，突破关键核心技术。三是世界经济复苏动能疲弱、经济周期波动加剧，全球经济深度调整，不同国家增长分化趋势明显。2025年4月，国际货币基金组织发布的最新一期《世界经济展望报告》将2025年全球经济增长预期从年初的3.3%下调至2.8%。这种全球经济下行压力增加了我国发展的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性。

A period of deepening and expanding high-quality development. From the perspective of domestic development, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s economy has shown a strong momentum of transformation, displaying three major trend characteristics: first, the growth rate of total factor productivity is on the rise. In 2024, the intensity of R&D investment reached 2.68%, total social R&D expenditure exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan, the share of basic research funding rose to 6.91%, and the Global Innovation Index ranked China 11th. Second, the supply–demand structure is moving toward a higher-level dynamic equilibrium. High-tech manufacturing is leading industrial growth: in the first half of 2025, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size grew by 9.5% year on year, far exceeding the 6.4% overall growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size, contributing 23.3% to growth. Third, the middle-income group continues to expand: in 2024 it exceeded 400 million people, and by 2035 it is expected to surpass 700 million. The consumption upgrade of the middle-income group drives industrial transformation, providing a strong impetus for high-quality development. The core task of this period is to consolidate the existing transformation achievements, address deep-seated structural contradictions, cross the “middle-income trap,”[6]6 “Middle-income trap” refers to the phenomenon in which an economy that has reached middle-income levels stagnates and fails to transition to high-income status. and comprehensively shape new drivers and advantages for development. The supporting conditions for China’s long-term positive economic outlook have not changed. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee[7]7 The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee was held in July 2024 and adopted a decision on comprehensively deepening reform and advancing Chinese-path modernization. proposed that by 2035 a high-level socialist market economy system will be fully established. With the deepening of comprehensive reforms, reform dividends will be further released, promoting the increase of total factor productivity. The 15th Five-Year Plan period will be a critical stage for China’s high-quality development to deepen and expand from concept to practice and from part to whole. It is necessary to scientifically grasp this historical orientation, accurately recognize changes, respond scientifically, and actively seek change.

高质量发展的深化拓展期。从国内发展看，“十四五”期间我国经济展现出强劲转型势头，呈现三大趋势性特征：一是全要素生产率增速呈上升趋势。2024年研发投入强度达2.68%，全社会研发经费投入超过3.6万亿元，基础研究经费占比提升至6.91%，创新指数全球排名第11位。二是供需结构迈向更高水平动态平衡。高技术制造业引领工业增长，2025年上半年规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增速达9.5%，远超6.4%的规模以上工业整体增速，贡献率达23.3%。三是中等收入群体持续扩大：2024年中等收入群体已超4亿，2035年有望突破7亿。中等收入群体消费升级带动产业转型，为高质量发展提供了强大动力。这一时期的核心课题在于巩固既有转型成果，着力解决深层次结构性矛盾，跨越“中等收入陷阱”，全面塑造发展新动能新优势。“十五五”时期，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件没有改变。党的二十届三中全会提出，到2035年全面建成高水平社会主义市场经济体制。随着全面深化改革的深入推进，将进一步释放改革红利，促进全要素生产率提升。“十五五”时期将是我国经济高质量发展从理念到实践、从局部到全局深化拓展的关键阶段，必须科学把握这一历史方位，准确识变、科学应变、主动求变。

The systemic advantages of high-quality development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period

“十五五”时期高质量发展的体系优势

The meeting of the Political Bureau pointed out that China’s economic foundation is stable, advantages are numerous, resilience is strong, and potential is great; the supporting conditions and basic trends for long-term improvement have not changed, and the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the super-large market, the complete industrial system, and the rich talent resources have become more evident. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, fully leveraging and continuously consolidating and expanding China’s significant systemic advantages in institutions, markets, industry, and talent will provide solid support for meeting challenges and seizing opportunities. It is necessary to maintain strategic focus, make good use of advantages, constantly stimulate potential, and turn advantages into victory.

中央政治局会议指出，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显。“十五五”时期，充分发挥并持续巩固扩大我国在制度、市场、产业、人才等方面的显著体系优势，是应对挑战、把握机遇的坚实支撑。要保持定力、用好优势，不断激发潜力、化优势为胜势。

The advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics are more fully demonstrated. The ability to concentrate resources to accomplish major tasks is a significant advantage of China’s socialist system, enabling effective coordination of resources from all sides to form a joint force for development. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the effect of the new-type nationwide system[8]8 The “new-type nationwide system” is an institutional mechanism in a socialist market economy that mobilizes national resources to concentrate efforts on achieving breakthroughs in critical core technologies. will be further amplified. Under the unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, China provides clear long-term support for cutting-edge technology development and high-tech industries, including stable R&D funding to ensure that gaps in frontier areas are progressively narrowed, as well as a relatively complete policy support system that not only reduces enterprises’ economic burden but also lowers the uncertainty and risk in the R&D process, encouraging more enterprises and research institutions to participate in specific technological innovation activities. Especially for tackling “bottleneck” technologies[9]9 “Bottleneck” technologies (卡脖子技术) refer to key core technologies that are blocked or controlled by foreign countries, constraining China’s industrial development and technological upgrading. and cultivating strategic emerging industries, a more precise and effective mechanism for tackling key problems will be formed during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

更加彰显中国特色社会主义制度优势。能够集中力量办大事是我国社会主义制度的显著优势，能够有效统筹各方资源，形成发展合力。“十五五”期间，新型举国体制效能将进一步放大，在党中央集中统一领导下，我国对前沿技术开发和高技术产业发展有明确的长期支持，既包括稳定的研发资金投入，确保在前沿领域不断缩小差距；也包括较完善的政策扶持体系，不仅能减轻企业经济负担，还能降低研发过程中的不确定性和风险，鼓励更多企业和科研机构参与到特定的技术创新活动中来。特别是对于“卡脖子”技术攻关和战略性新兴产业培育，“十五五”期间将形成更加精准有效的攻坚机制。

Vigorously promote the superposition and mutual reinforcement of the super-large market advantage and the complete industrial system advantage. China has the most complete range of industrial categories in the world and will build a strong domestic market. Relying on the two major advantages of market and industry, expanding domestic demand has become an “accelerator” for stimulating scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation. Under market economy conditions, innovation is the result of multiple factors. Whether it is enterprises’ product innovation or industrial transformation and upgrading, it is a dynamic process in which market demand drives the transformation of the supply mode. The people’s pursuit of a richer and more colorful high-quality life, and their continuously increasing demand for digital, intelligent, and green consumption scenarios, directly drive the transformation and upgrading of industries toward high-end, digital-intelligent, and green development. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, a better situation of mutual promotion between supply and demand is expected to form. By raising income levels, improving social security, and optimizing the consumption environment, residents’ consumption capacity will be enhanced and their willingness to consume increased. Ensuring and improving people’s livelihood, expanding consumption demand, and deepening the construction of a unified national market will develop synergistically, becoming an important path for consolidating and expanding the systemic advantages of high-quality development.

着力推进超大规模市场优势与完整产业体系优势叠加互促。我国是世界上产业门类最为齐全的国家，将建成强大的国内市场。依托市场和产业两大优势，扩大内需成为激励科技创新和产业创新的“加速器”。在市场经济条件下，创新是多种因素作用的结果。无论是企业的产品创新，还是产业转型升级，都是由市场需求牵引供给方式转变的动态过程。人民群众追求更加丰富多彩的高品质生活，对数字化、智能化、绿色化消费场景的需求持续增加。这种需求将直接带动产业向高端化、数智化、绿色化转型升级，“十五五”期间有望形成更为良好的供需互促局面，通过提高收入水平、完善社会保障和优化消费环境，增强居民消费能力，提高消费意愿。保障改善民生、扩大消费需求与纵深推进全国统一大市场建设的协同发展，将成为巩固扩大高质量发展体系优势的重要路径。

Continuously release the advantage of rich talent resources. Solving the problems of “bottleneck” technologies and achieving high-level scientific and technological self-reliance ultimately depends on cultivating and gathering a large number of strategic scientists, engineers, and highly skilled personnel with original innovation capabilities. China’s investment in core human capital as a share of GDP is still lower than the average level of OECD[10]10 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) is an intergovernmental organization of mostly high-income economies; its members are often used as a benchmark for developed-country standards. countries. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, education, science and technology, health, and vocational training should be integrated into “generalized human capital investment,” strengthen target rigidity constraints, set expected indicators for “the share of public talent affairs expenditure in total fiscal expenditure,” and ensure that the growth rate of talent-related expenditure is higher than the growth rate of fiscal revenue. With the continued expansion of higher education and the improvement of the vocational education system, a multi-layered talent pool and a continuously optimized innovation ecosystem will be gradually established, providing a solid talent guarantee for developing new quality productive forces. Consolidating and expanding these systemic advantages during the 15th Five-Year Plan period will lay a solid foundation for basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035.

持续释放丰富人才资源优势。解决“卡脖子”技术难题，实现高水平科技自立自强，根本出路在于培养和集聚一大批具有原始创新能力的战略科学家、工程师和高技能人才。我国在核心人力资本领域的投入占GDP比重仍低于OECD国家平均水平。“十五五”时期，应将教育、科技、卫生、职业培训等整合为“广义人力资本投资”，强化目标刚性约束，设立“公共人才事务支出占财政总支出比重”预期性指标，确保人才相关支出增速高于财政收入增速。随着高等教育规模持续扩大和职业教育体系完善，逐步建立多层次的人才资源和持续优化的创新生态体系，为发展新质生产力提供坚实人才保障。“十五五”时期巩固扩大这些体系优势，将为2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的目标奠定坚实基础。

(The author, Ma Yide, is a specially appointed researcher at the Beijing Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and a Chair Professor at the School of Intellectual Property, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.)

（作者：马一德，系北京市习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心特约研究员、中国科学院大学知识产权学院讲席教授）

Online editor: Tongxin

网络编辑：同心