Practical Achievements and Theoretical Innovation in Coordinating Supply and Demand

Supply and demand are two fundamental aspects of the internal relations of a market economy, and they exist in a dialectical relationship of both unity and opposition. Since the New Era, in the face of complex and volatile domestic and international situations, the Party Central Committee has placed great emphasis on coordinating the expansion of domestic demand and the optimization of supply, continuously deepening the understanding of the laws governing the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, and promoting high-quality development to reach new heights. At the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference, General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly stated that in practice, we continuously deepen our understanding of the laws governing economic work, one of which is “we must properly coordinate the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand to smooth the national economic cycle.” This understanding of the laws not only embodies the rich practice and successful experience of China’s macroeconomic governance in the New Era but also provides theoretical guidance for smoothing the national economic cycle and forming a higher-level dynamic balance between supply and demand, and further makes an important contribution to constructing an independent knowledge system for Chinese economics. Accurately grasping the breakthroughs and innovations at the theoretical level of “properly coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand” holds significant academic value and practical significance.

供给和需求是市场经济内在关系的两个基本方面，二者是既对立又统一的辩证关系。新时代以来，面对国内外复杂多变的形势，党中央高度重视统筹扩大内需和优化供给，不断深化对总供给和总需求关系的规律性认识，推动高质量发展迈上新台阶。习近平总书记在2024年中央经济工作会议上明确提出，实践中，我们不断深化对经济工作的规律性认识，其中一条就是“必须统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，畅通国民经济循环”。这一规律性认识，既体现了新时代中国宏观经济治理的丰富实践和成功经验，也为畅通国民经济循环和形成更高水平的供需动态平衡提供了理论指导，更为构建中国经济学自主知识体系作出了重要贡献。准确把握“统筹好总供给和总需求的关系”在理论层面的突破与创新，具有重要的学理价值和实践意义。

Deepening the Understanding of the Laws of Coordinating Supply and Demand

深化统筹供需的规律性认识

Aggregate supply and aggregate demand jointly determine important macroeconomic aggregates such as the overall output level of an economy, thereby determining the basic pattern of macroeconomic operation. Aggregate supply refers to the total sum of all final goods and services that a country or region can provide within a given period, reflecting the economy’s optimal production capacity under specific conditions. The influencing factors of aggregate supply mainly include traditional factors of production such as capital and labor, as well as other important factors like technology, institutions, and growth policies. Aggregate demand refers to the total quantity of demand for goods and services in the entire society, including domestic demand and foreign demand. The influencing factors of aggregate demand mainly include household consumption, investment, net exports, government expenditure, monetary policy, and fiscal policy. When the influencing factors of aggregate supply and aggregate demand change, the macroeconomic operation situation will be altered, and the overall price level and total output of the economy will change accordingly. Macroeconomic regulatory authorities can influence both aggregate supply and aggregate demand by introducing economic policies.

总供给和总需求共同决定了经济体的总体产出水平等重要宏观总量，从而决定宏观经济运行的基本格局。总供给是指在一定时期内，一个国家或地区能够提供的全部最终产品与服务的总和，它反映了经济体在特定条件下的最优生产能力。总供给的影响因素主要包括资本和劳动等传统生产要素，以及技术、制度、增长政策等其他重要因素。总需求是指全社会对产品和服务的需求总量，包括国内需求和国外需求。总需求的影响因素主要包括居民消费、投资、净出口、政府支出、货币政策与财政政策等。总供给和总需求的影响因素发生变化时，会改变宏观经济运行态势，经济总价格和总产出也会相应发生变化。宏观调控部门通过出台经济政策，既可以影响总供给，也可以影响总需求。

For a long time, we have attached great importance to the balanced development of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in macroeconomic regulation and governance with Chinese characteristics. As early as the outline of the Eighth Five-Year Plan [1]1 The 20th National Congress of the CPC was held in October 2022., it was clearly proposed to strive to maintain a basic balance between total social demand and total social supply. The outline of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan [2]2 The “new development pattern” (新发展格局) refers to the dual-circulation strategy, with the domestic economy as the main body and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other, formally proposed by the CPC in 2020. also explicitly required continuing to achieve a balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply, with particular emphasis on strengthening institutional coordination, planning coordination, and policy coordination. It should be noted that macroeconomic regulation and governance with Chinese characteristics are not limited to short-term stabilization objectives but aim to achieve multiple important goals such as short-term stability, long-term growth, and optimization of the macroeconomic structure. For short-term stability objectives, efforts can mainly be made from the demand side. For important objectives such as long-term growth and optimization of the macroeconomic structure, more efforts need to be made from the supply side, with an emphasis on strengthening the coordination and cooperation between aggregate supply and aggregate demand. It is precisely due to the scientific regulatory concept of balanced development between aggregate supply and aggregate demand that the Chinese economy has successfully met challenges such as the Asian financial crisis at the end of the last century and the 2008 international financial crisis.

长期以来，我们在中国特色宏观调控和宏观经济治理中高度重视总供给和总需求的平衡发展。早在“八五”计划纲要中就明确提出，要努力保持社会总需求与社会总供给基本平衡。“十一五”规划纲要也明确要求，继续做好总需求与总供给的平衡，特别要加强制度协调、规划协调和政策协调。要看到，中国特色宏观调控和宏观经济治理不局限于短期稳定的目标，而是旨在实现短期稳定、长期增长和宏观经济结构优化等多类重要目标。对于短期稳定目标，可主要从总需求发力。对于长期增长和宏观经济结构优化等重要目标，则更多要从总供给发力，并注重加强总供给和总需求的协调配合。正是得益于总供给和总需求平衡发展的科学调控理念，中国经济成功应对了上世纪末的亚洲金融危机和2008年国际金融危机等挑战。

Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [3]3 “Involution-style competition” (内卷式竞争) refers to excessive, zero-sum competition that leads to diminishing returns without genuine innovation or productivity gains, a term that gained prominence in Chinese public discourse in recent years., the central authorities have placed greater emphasis on properly coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, continuously deepening the understanding of the laws in response to changes in the stage of economic development as well as the domestic and international environment and conditions.

党的十八大以来，中央更加重视统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，随着经济发展阶段以及国内外环境和条件的变化而不断深化规律性认识。

First, taking supply-side structural reform as the starting point, efforts are focused on optimizing aggregate supply to better adapt to changes in aggregate demand. General Secretary Xi Jinping first proposed the concept of “supply-side structural reform” in 2015. The reason for proposing supply-side structural reform was that, at that time, the main aspect of the contradiction facing China’s economic development was on the supply side. In the process of continuous economic and social development, residents’ demand has been constantly upgrading, but the quality of products and services supplied by enterprises has not kept pace with changes in demand. To enable supply to better adapt to changes in aggregate demand, it is necessary to deeply advance supply-side structural reform. From a long-term perspective and international experience, economic development fundamentally relies on supply-side impetus. The main direction of advancing supply-side structural reform is to improve the quality of the supply system, reduce ineffective and low-end supply, expand effective and mid-to-high-end supply, enhance the adaptability and flexibility of the supply structure to changes in demand, and increase total factor productivity.

其一，以供给侧结构性改革为抓手，着力优化总供给，更好适应总需求变化。习近平总书记在2015年首次提出了“供给侧结构性改革”这一概念。之所以提出供给侧结构性改革，是因为当时我国经济发展所面临矛盾的主要方面在供给侧。在经济社会不断发展的过程中，居民需求持续升级，但是企业所供给的产品和服务的质量没有跟上需求变化。要想让供给更好地适应总需求的变化，必须深入推进供给侧结构性改革。从长期视角和国际经验看，经济发展根本上要靠供给侧推动。推进供给侧结构性改革，主攻方向是提高供给体系质量，减少无效和低端供给，扩大有效和中高端供给，增强供给结构对需求变化的适应性和灵活性，提高全要素生产率。

Second, taking demand-side management as the starting point, efforts are focused on expanding aggregate demand, so that supply-side structural reform and demand-side management complement each other. Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, China has firmly implemented the

其二，以需求侧管理为抓手，着力扩大总需求，使供给侧结构性改革和需求侧管理相辅相成。党的十八大以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，我国坚定实施扩大内需战略，加快培育完整内需体系，把扩大内需作为加快构建新发展格局的关键着力点。近年来，国内外形势发生了深刻变化，我国经济发展中内需不足特别是消费不振的问题日益突出。习近平总书记在十八届中央政治局第三十八次集体学习时提出“需求侧管理”，要求用好需求侧管理这个重要工具，使供给侧改革和需求侧管理相辅相成、相得益彰。

Third, persist in synergistically deepening supply-side structural reform and vigorously expanding effective demand. Supply-side management and demand-side management are the two basic means of regulating the macroeconomy. Abandoning the supply side to discuss the demand side, or abandoning the demand side to discuss the supply side, is one-sided. The two are not a relationship of substitution where one must be chosen over the other, with one advancing and the other retreating; rather, they must cooperate and coordinate with each other. The report of the 20th National Congress of the CPC explicitly stated, “Organically integrate the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reform.” [1]1 The 20th National Congress of the CPC was held in October 2022. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference that it is necessary to persist in synergistically exerting force on both the supply and demand sides and achieving dynamic balance. This has further deepened the understanding of the laws governing the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand.

其三，坚持深化供给侧结构性改革和着力扩大有效需求协同发力。供给侧管理和需求侧管理是调控宏观经济的两个基本手段。放弃需求侧谈供给侧，或放弃供给侧谈需求侧都是片面的，二者不是非此即彼、一去一存的替代关系，而是要相互配合、协调推进。党的二十大报告明确提出“把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来”。习近平总书记在2024年中央经济工作会议上强调，要坚持供需两侧协同发力、动态平衡。这都进一步深化了对总供给和总需求关系的规律性认识。

Under the overall layout of the Party Central Committee, various departments have synergistically exerted force and adopted multiple measures simultaneously, committed to achieving a dynamic balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand. Persisting in exerting force on both supply and demand, continuously deepening supply-side structural reform, advancing in some areas while retreating in others, maintaining support in some areas while applying pressure in others, and enhancing the adaptability and balance between supply and demand. On the demand side, continuously expand effective investment, drive high-quality capital accumulation, and consolidate the foundation of aggregate supply; on the supply side, emphasize improving the quality of supply to satisfy and generate new demand, continuously injecting momentum into aggregate demand. Since the New Era, by coordinating aggregate supply and aggregate demand, China has not only achieved stable economic growth and price stability but has also achieved significant results in areas such as people’s livelihood, innovation, and green development, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development.

在党中央的整体布局下，各部门协同发力、多措并举，致力于实现总供给与总需求的动态平衡。坚持供需双向发力，持续深化供给侧结构性改革，有进有退、有保有压，增强供给与需求的适配性、平衡性。需求侧方面，持续扩大有效投资，驱动高质量资本积累，筑牢总供给根基；供给侧方面，强调通过提升供给品质，满足并催生新需求，持续为总需求注入动力。新时代以来，我国通过统筹总供给与总需求，不仅实现了经济平稳增长与物价稳定，而且在民生、创新、绿色等领域取得显著成效，为高质量发展奠定了坚实基础。

A Breakthrough in Western Macroeconomic Policy Theory

对西方宏观政策理论的突破

Over the past century, Western macroeconomic policy theory has undergone several landmark evolutions, including Keynesianism, Monetarism, and New Keynesianism, gradually constructing a theoretical system with short-term counter-cyclical regulation as its core. The core of this theory is the use of short-term stabilization policies such as monetary policy and fiscal policy for aggregate demand management, in order to achieve the goals of short-term economic stability and financial stability. Therefore, it can also be called aggregate demand management theory. Western macroeconomic policy theory mainly focuses on aggregate demand, pays less attention to aggregate supply, and even lacks the modern consideration of coordinating the three major categories of macroeconomic policies—stabilization policy, growth policy, and structural policy—to achieve the healthy development of the macroeconomy.

近百年来，西方宏观政策理论历经凯恩斯主义、货币主义和新凯恩斯主义等数次里程碑式的演进，逐步构建起以短期逆周期调节为内核的理论体系。这一理论的核心是使用货币政策与财政政策等短期稳定政策进行总需求管理，以实现短期经济稳定与金融稳定目标，因此又可称之为总需求管理理论。西方宏观政策理论主要关注总需求，较少关注总供给，更是缺乏将稳定政策、增长政策和结构政策三大类宏观政策统筹起来以实现宏观经济健康发展的现代考量。

The main reasons why Western macroeconomic policy theory pays less attention to aggregate supply are as follows.

之所以西方宏观政策理论较少关注总供给，主要有以下原因。

Western macroeconomic policy theory is rooted in the macroeconomic policy practices of the industrial era in developed economies in Europe and America. The economic growth of these economies has already tended to stabilize, so the operational mode of aggregate supply is in a relatively stable state. In a steady state, the rate of economic growth is mainly determined by factors such as technological progress and institutions, and the macroeconomic policies of Western countries, primarily monetary and fiscal policies, have little substantive impact on this. Based on this, Western macroeconomic policy theory believes that attention should be focused on the demand side, which macroeconomic policies can regulate, without needing to pay excessive attention to aggregate supply.

西方宏观政策理论根植于欧美发达经济体工业经济时代的宏观政策实践，这些经济体的经济增长已经趋于稳定，所以总供给运行模式处于相对稳定状态。在稳态下，经济增长速度主要由技术进步和制度等因素决定，西方国家以货币政策和财政政策为主的宏观政策对此难有实质性影响。基于此，西方宏观政策理论认为需要把注意力集中于宏观政策可以调节的需求侧，而无需过多关注总供给。

Western macroeconomic policy theory holds that through effective coordination of aggregate demand management and efficient expectation management, it is possible to a certain extent to address economic fluctuations caused by aggregate supply shocks. However, with the continuous development of the digital economy, significant changes have occurred in the operational laws, economic structures, and growth trends of various countries, diminishing the applicability of Western macroeconomic policy theory, which originated in the industrial economy era. Moreover, aggregate supply shocks in the digital economy era are increasingly multi-sourced; even combining aggregate demand management with expectation management makes it difficult to effectively respond to aggregate supply shocks.

西方宏观政策理论认为通过总需求管理与高效的预期管理有效配合，可以在一定程度上应对总供给冲击带来的经济波动。然而，伴随数字经济不断发展，各国经济运行规律、经济结构与增长趋势均发生了显著变化，源自工业经济时代的西方宏观政策理论的适用性减弱。不仅如此，数字经济时代的供给冲击日益多源化，即便将总需求管理与预期管理相配合，也难以有效应对总供给冲击。

Western macroeconomic policy theory places greater emphasis on the approach of “the market leading supply and the government regulating demand.” Yet in the digital economy era, data has become an important factor of production. Data elements may break traditional economic laws such as diminishing marginal returns and constant returns to scale from the supply side, causing variations in the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic policies. Western macroeconomic policy theory focuses only on demand-side regulation while neglecting supply-side regulation, rendering it unable to effectively address the major changes on the supply side in the digital economy era.

西方宏观政策理论更强调“市场主导供给、政府调控需求”的思路。然而，在数字经济时代，数据成为一种重要的生产要素，数据要素可能会从供给侧打破边际报酬递减、规模报酬不变等传统经济规律，导致宏观政策传导机制发生变异。西方宏观政策理论仅注重需求侧调控，而忽视了对供给侧的调控，无法有效应对数字经济时代供给侧的重大变化。

Constrained by the above reasons, in the nearly two decades following the 2008 international financial crisis, developed economies in Europe and the United States have struggled to escape the predicament of weak economic growth. The shortcomings of Western macroeconomic policy theory—its focus on aggregate demand while neglecting aggregate supply, and its lack of a macro perspective—have become increasingly apparent, prompting profound reflection on Western macroeconomic policy theory across various sectors.

囿于上述原因，2008年国际金融危机之后的近20年间，欧美发达经济体始终难以摆脱经济增长乏力的困境，西方宏观政策理论聚焦总需求而忽视总供给、缺乏大宏观视角的弊端不断显现，引发了各界对西方宏观政策理论的深刻反思。

The Party Central Committee has put forward the new regular understanding of “coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand.” Based on China’s long-term practical experience of simultaneously regulating aggregate demand and aggregate supply using stabilization policies, growth policies, and structural policies, this achieves a breakthrough in Western macroeconomic policy theory in three main aspects. It helps to construct and improve the independent knowledge system of Chinese economics and holds significant academic value.

党中央提出“统筹好总供给和总需求的关系”这一新的规律性认识，基于我国使用稳定政策、增长政策和结构政策同时调节总需求和总供给的长期实践经验，主要从三个方面实现了对西方宏观政策理论的突破，有助于构建和完善中国经济学自主知识体系，具有重大学理价值。

First, coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand can more effectively respond to aggregate supply shocks and promote stable economic development. Western macroeconomic policy theory mainly focuses policy efforts on the demand side. When faced with complex and multi-sourced aggregate supply shocks, it is difficult to provide effective response strategies. Coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, by exerting force from the supply side, can improve corporate profitability, encourage enterprises to increase R&D investment, and thereby enhance enterprises’ human capital accumulation and technological R&D levels. This helps to address aggregate supply shocks and promote stable economic development.

其一，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，能够更有效地应对总供给冲击，促进经济平稳发展。西方宏观政策理论主要将政策发力点放在需求侧，面对复杂多源的总供给冲击，很难给出有效应对策略。统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，从供给侧发力，能够改善企业的盈利能力，推动企业增加研发投入，进而改善企业的人力资本积累与技术研发水平。这有助于应对总供给冲击，促进经济平稳发展。

Second, coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand can more effectively respond to aggregate demand shocks and improve the governance capacity of macroeconomic policies on the demand side. The prerequisite for applying Western macroeconomic policy theory is that the potential growth rate remains stable over the long term. However, after the 2008 international financial crisis, the potential growth rates of major economies have shown a significant downward trend. Coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand can further raise the long-term potential growth rate, thereby exploring feasible pathways to smooth the national economic cycle and form a higher-level dynamic balance between supply and demand.

其二，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，能够更有效地应对总需求冲击，提高宏观政策在需求侧的治理能力。西方宏观政策理论的应用前提是潜在增速长期处于稳定状态，但2008年国际金融危机之后，主要经济体的潜在增速呈现显著下滑趋势。统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，能够推动长期潜在增速进一步提升，从而探索出畅通国民经济循环和形成更高水平供需动态平衡的可行路径。

Third, coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand can better adapt to the operational laws of the digital economy era. The key lies in using both stabilization policies such as monetary policy and fiscal policy to regulate aggregate demand, and important economic policies such as growth policies to regulate aggregate supply, thereby better leveraging the positive driving role of data elements in forming new drivers of economic growth. This can effectively compensate for the policy failures in the digital economy era caused by Western macroeconomic policy theory’s exclusive focus on aggregate demand to the neglect of aggregate supply.

其三，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，能够更好地适应数字经济时代的经济运行规律。其关键在于，既使用货币政策和财政政策等稳定政策对总需求进行调控，又使用增长政策等重要经济政策对总供给进行调控，从而更好地发挥数据要素在形成经济增长新动力等方面的积极带动作用。这样能够较好地弥补西方宏观政策理论只关注总需求而不关注总供给所引发的数字经济时代的政策失效问题。

The new regular understanding of “coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand” upgrades the “aggregate supply–aggregate demand” analytical framework, representing a major breakthrough and innovation in Western macroeconomic policy theory. It provides academic support for improving the macroeconomic governance system and comprehensively enhancing macroeconomic governance capacity.

“统筹好总供给和总需求的关系”这一新的规律性认识，对“总供给—总需求”分析框架进行了升级，是对西方宏观政策理论的重大突破与创新，为健全宏观经济治理体系、全面提升宏观经济治理能力提供了学理支撑。

Providing a Basis for Situation Analysis and Policy Formulation

为形势分析政策制定提供依据

The new regular understanding of “coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand” has the following three characteristics.

“统筹好总供给和总需求的关系”这一新的规律性认识，有以下三个方面的特点。

First, it takes the “aggregate supply–aggregate demand” analytical framework as its foundational support, emphasizing the logic of economic theory. Although in Western economic policy practice, aggregate demand is primarily regulated through demand management, in theory, the “aggregate supply–aggregate demand” analytical framework is an important framework in macroeconomics. By considering the interaction between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, it is possible to grasp the changing patterns of macroeconomic variables such as total output levels and price levels, and to provide an important theoretical basis for judging the balance between supply and demand in economic operations.

第一，以“总供给—总需求”分析框架为基础性支撑，强调经济学理论逻辑。虽然在西方经济政策实践中，主要通过需求管理来调节总需求，但在理论上，“总供给—总需求”分析框架是宏观经济学的重要分析框架。通过考虑总供给和总需求的相互作用，能够把握总产出水平和物价水平等宏观变量的变化规律，并为判断经济运行中供需平衡状况提供重要理论依据。

Second, it not only focuses on expanding domestic demand but also on expanding external demand. Both domestic demand and external demand are important components of aggregate demand. Expanding domestic demand is a major strategy that China has long adhered to. Making domestic demand the main driver and stable anchor of economic growth not only helps enhance the initiative, resilience, and flexibility of the domestic economic cycle, promotes consumption upgrading and investment optimization, but also better meets the increasingly diverse needs of the people. At the same time, external demand still occupies an important position in China’s economic development. Stabilizing and expanding external demand helps to further open up international markets, optimize export structures, and enhance the position of the industrial chain in the global division of labor, thereby better smoothing the economic cycle. Domestic demand and external demand complement and promote each other, helping to form a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the mainstay and the domestic and international cycles reinforcing each other. [2]2 The “new development pattern” (新发展格局) refers to the dual-circulation strategy, with the domestic economy as the main body and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other, formally proposed by the CPC in 2020.

第二，不仅注重扩大内需，而且注重拓展外需。内需和外需均是总需求的重要组成部分。扩大内需是我国长期坚持的重大战略，让内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚，不仅有助于增强国内大循环的主动性、韧性和灵活性，促进消费升级与投资优化，而且可以更好地满足人民群众日益多样化的需求。与此同时，外需在我国经济发展中依然占据重要地位。稳定和拓展外需，有助于进一步开拓国际市场、优化出口结构和提升产业链在全球分工中的地位，从而更好畅通经济循环。内需和外需相互补充、相互促进，有助于形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。

Third, while optimizing the supply structure, greater emphasis should also be placed on keeping aggregate supply at a reasonable level. This requirement is not only an important supplement to supply-side structural reform but also a crucial prerequisite for achieving stable macroeconomic operations. Deepening supply-side structural reform has its core in making adjustments from the “structure” perspective, focusing on improving the supply structure and enhancing supply quality to better meet the needs of economic transformation and upgrading and diverse social demands. From this perspective, the reform’s focus is mainly on optimizing industrial structure, improving factor allocation efficiency, and enhancing supply quality. In comparison, the connotation of aggregate supply is more comprehensive; its scope includes both continuously deepening supply-side structural reform to promote structural optimization and ensuring that aggregate supply remains relatively stable at the aggregate level, thereby avoiding macroeconomic fluctuations caused by supply-demand imbalances. The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference proposed comprehensively rectifying “involution-style” competition, which is also an important measure aimed at precise governance from the perspective of aggregate supply. [3]3 “Involution-style competition” (内卷式竞争) refers to excessive, zero-sum competition that leads to diminishing returns without genuine innovation or productivity gains, a term that gained prominence in Chinese public discourse in recent years.

第三，在优化供给结构的同时，还要更加注重将总供给保持在合理水平。这一要求不仅是供给侧结构性改革的重要补充，也是实现宏观经济平稳运行的重要前提。深化供给侧结构性改革，核心是从“结构”入手做文章，着力改善供给结构和提高供给质量，以更好地满足经济转型升级和社会多样化需求。从这一层面来看，改革的重心主要集中在产业结构优化、要素配置效率提升以及供给质量改善上。与之相比，总供给的内涵更加全面，其范畴既包括持续深化供给侧结构性改革以推动结构优化，也包括确保总供给在总量层面保持相对平稳，从而避免因供需失衡引发宏观经济波动。2024年中央经济工作会议提出综合整治“内卷式”竞争，亦是着眼总供给实施精准治理的重要举措。

Overall, the “aggregate supply–aggregate demand” analytical framework helps to grasp the macroeconomic operational situation more comprehensively and systematically. On this basis, adopting appropriate macroeconomic policies—including stabilization policies acting on aggregate demand, growth policies acting on aggregate supply, and structural policies that can adjust the respective structures of aggregate demand and aggregate supply—to achieve “three-policy coordination” helps the macroeconomy better form a high-level dynamic balance between supply and demand and promotes the virtuous cycle of the national economy.

总的来说，“总供给—总需求”分析框架有助于更全面、更系统地把握宏观经济运行态势。在此基础上，采取合适的宏观政策，包括作用于总需求的稳定政策、作用于总供给的增长政策、可以调整总需求总供给各自结构的结构政策，实现“三策合一”，有助于帮助宏观经济更好地形成高水平供需动态平衡，促进国民经济良性循环。

Achieving a Higher-Level Dynamic Balance of Supply and Demand

实现更高水平供需动态平衡

The fundamentals of China’s economy, which are positive over the long term, have not changed, but coordinating aggregate supply and aggregate demand still faces challenges. It is necessary to adhere to a systems perspective and strive to promote a dynamic balance at a higher level where demand drives supply and supply creates demand.

我国经济长期向好的基本面没有改变，但统筹总供给与总需求仍面临挑战。要坚持系统观念，着力推动二者在更高水平上实现需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的动态平衡。

From the supply side, it is necessary to persist in deepening supply-side structural reform. There are various supply-side economic policies, and supply-side structural reform is an important one among them. Deepening supply-side structural reform can fundamentally resolve the structural contradictions between supply and demand, forming a favorable trend in which high-quality supply leads and creates demand, thereby providing active support from the supply side for coordinating supply and demand. First, leverage the role of market mechanisms to encourage enterprises to increase the supply of high-quality products and services. The key lies in adhering to technological leadership and innovation-driven development, which can both promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and foster the growth and expansion of strategic emerging industries and future industries. By enhancing the adaptability and flexibility of the supply structure to changes in demand, new supply can create and stimulate new demand. Second, adhere to the principles of advancing and retreating, preserving and suppressing, increasing and decreasing where appropriate, comprehensively rectify "involution-style" competition [4]4 "Involution-style competition" (内卷式竞争) refers to excessive, zero-sum competition within a limited space that leads to diminishing returns and wasted resources, often used in Chinese policy discourse to describe unhealthy market behaviors. in some industries, maintain reasonable capacity utilization rates, and form a healthy and sustainable industrial development ecosystem. Third, fully leverage the amplifying, superimposing, and multiplying effects of data as a key factor of production, empower total factor productivity improvement with data, expand and strengthen the digital economy, promote the integration of the real economy and the digital economy, and expand new spaces for economic development while building new advantages for national competition.

从供给侧来看，要坚持深化供给侧结构性改革。供给侧的经济政策有多种，供给侧结构性改革是其中重要的一种。深化供给侧结构性改革能够从根本上破解供需之间的结构性矛盾，形成以高质量供给引领需求、创造需求的良好态势，为统筹供需提供供给侧的主动支撑。一是发挥市场机制作用，鼓励企业增加高质量产品与服务供给。关键在于坚持科技引领与创新驱动，这既能推动传统产业转型升级，也能促进战略性新兴产业与未来产业发展壮大。通过增强供给结构对需求变化的适配性与灵活性，实现以新供给创造和激发新需求。二是坚持有进有退、有保有压、有增有减，对一些行业要综合整治“内卷式”竞争，保持合理的产能利用率，形成健康、可持续的产业发展生态。三是充分发挥数据作为关键生产要素的放大、叠加与倍增作用，以数据赋能全要素生产率提升，做大做强数字经济，促进实体经济和数字经济融合，拓展经济发展新空间、构筑国家竞争新优势。

From the demand side, expanding domestic demand should be regarded as a long-term strategic move. Expanding domestic demand is related not only to economic stability but also to economic security; it is not an expedient measure but a long-term strategic move. Focusing on the consumption sector: first, vigorously improve employment so that residents have higher and more stable incomes to enable consumption. Employment and income are the foundational forces supporting resident consumption, and multiple measures must be taken simultaneously. It is necessary both to protect employment by increasing efforts to stabilize enterprise jobs, doing everything possible to increase the number of jobs and ensure overall employment stability, and to expand positions by vigorously developing new business forms and models, continuously creating new job positions and opening up new employment spaces. More importantly, it is necessary to increase incomes by improving the wage growth mechanism, promoting income growth through multiple channels, especially promoting income growth and burden reduction for low- and middle-income groups, and striving to achieve basic synchronization between resident income growth and economic growth, as well as between labor remuneration increases and labor productivity increases. Second, further improve people's livelihoods so that residents dare to consume without worries about the future. Increase financial investment and deepen reforms in areas such as education and medical care, continuously improving systems and mechanisms. Third, focus on improving the consumption environment so that consumers have a good experience and are willing to consume. Strengthen the protection of consumer rights and create a safe and reassuring consumption environment. Innovate and enrich consumption scenarios, accelerating the development of new types of consumption such as digital, green, and smart consumption. Fourth, increase high-quality supply to release consumption potential and promote the upgrading of consumption quality. Starting from relaxing access, reducing restrictions, and optimizing regulation, expand the supply of diversified services such as health, elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping. Focusing on the investment sector: first, improve the quality of investment. Make precise efforts in project selection and capital allocation, increase investment in areas such as technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and focus on supporting breakthroughs in key core technologies and the development of strategic emerging industries. Strictly control project access to avoid low-level redundant construction. Second, improve investment returns. It is necessary both to innovate and optimize investment and financing mechanisms, deepen the reform of the investment and financing system, and to innovate financial products and services, broaden financing channels, and reduce financing costs. It is also necessary to strengthen whole-process project management, conduct feasibility studies and risk assessments, ensure the scientific nature of investment decisions, and expand investment demand with reasonable returns. Third, improve the investment structure. In terms of investment direction, it is necessary both to attach importance to "hard investment" such as infrastructure and to increase "soft investment" such as education, achieving an organic combination of investment in things and investment in people. In terms of investment entities, it is necessary both to leverage the guiding role of government investment and to stimulate the vitality of private investment, forming a positive interaction between government investment and social investment.

从需求侧来看，要把扩大内需当作长期战略之举。扩大内需既关系到经济稳定，也关系到经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是长期战略之举。聚焦消费领域，一是大力改善就业，使居民有更高更稳定收入能消费。就业与收入是支撑居民消费的基础性力量，必须坚持多措并举。既要保就业，通过加大企业稳岗力度，千方百计增加就业数量，确保就业大局稳定；又要拓岗位，大力发展新业态新模式，不断创造新的就业岗位，开辟就业新空间；更要增收入，完善工资增长机制，多渠道促进增收，特别是促进中低收入群体增收减负，努力实现居民收入增长和经济增长基本同步、劳动报酬提高与劳动生产率提高基本同步。二是进一步改善民生，使居民没有后顾之忧敢消费。在教育、医疗等领域加大财政投入和深化改革，不断健全体制机制。三是着力改善消费环境，让消费者有良好的体验愿消费。强化消费者权益保护，营造安全放心的消费环境。创新和丰富消费场景，加快数字、绿色、智能等新型消费发展。四是增加优质供给以释放消费潜力，推动消费提质升级。从放宽准入、减少限制、优化监管等方面入手，扩大健康、养老、托幼、家政等多元化服务供给。聚焦投资领域，一是提高投资质量。在项目选择和资金投向上精准发力，加大对科技创新、产业升级等领域的投入力度，重点支持关键核心技术攻关和战略性新兴产业发展。严把项目准入关，避免低水平重复建设。二是改善投资效益。既要创新优化投融资机制，深化投融资体制改革，又要创新金融产品和服务，拓宽融资渠道，降低融资成本，还要加强项目全过程管理，做好可行性研究和风险评估，确保投资决策的科学性，扩大有合理回报的投资需求。三是改善投资结构。在投资方向上，既要重视基础设施等“硬投资”，又要加大教育等“软投资”，实现投资于物和投资于人的有机结合。在投资主体上，既要发挥政府投资的引导作用，又要激发民间投资活力，形成政府投资和社会投资的良性互动。

From the perspective of policy coordination, it is necessary to strengthen the coordination and cooperation of stabilization policies, growth policies, and structural policies, and focus on enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientations. Both macroeconomic policy theory and practice show that relying solely on one type of macroeconomic policy can neither effectively regulate aggregate demand nor effectively regulate aggregate supply, nor can it coordinate the balance between the two. For aggregate demand, it is necessary not only to use stabilization policies such as monetary policy and fiscal policy to regulate the scale of aggregate demand but also to use structural policies to regulate the structure of aggregate demand. For aggregate supply, it is necessary not only to use growth policies to regulate the scale of aggregate supply but also to use structural policies to regulate the structure of aggregate supply. For the virtuous cycle between aggregate demand and aggregate supply, it is necessary not only to use structural policies to raise the potential growth rate to the optimal growth rate corresponding to the optimal macroeconomic structure but also to coordinate stabilization policies, growth policies, and structural policies to form a higher level of dynamic equilibrium between supply and demand. The key to coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand lies in enhancing the consistency of the orientations of various macroeconomic policies. First, enhance the consistency of the orientations of monetary policy and fiscal policy. This is conducive to strengthening coordination and cooperation between the two, more effectively expanding aggregate demand, and addressing the principal contradictions [5]5 "Principal contradictions" (主要矛盾) is a term from Marxist dialectics, used in Chinese political economy to denote the primary imbalance or tension that defines a given stage of development. in current economic operations. Second, enhance the consistency of the orientations of stabilization policies, growth policies, and structural policies. The institutional mechanisms of macroeconomic policies in Western developed countries have defects, and interest divergences among multiple interest groups often make it difficult to achieve effective coordination of macroeconomic policies. Unlike Western developed countries, China's long-term policy practice in macroeconomic governance can effectively coordinate stabilization policies, growth policies, and structural policies, achieving "three policies in one" [6]6 "Three policies in one" (三策合一) is a term coined by the author to describe the coordinated use of stabilization, growth, and structural policies, reflecting a distinctive feature of China's macroeconomic governance., thereby exerting force from both the aggregate supply and aggregate demand sides, forming important support for sustained economic development. Therefore, in addition to using stabilization policies to regulate the scale of aggregate demand and growth policies to regulate the scale of aggregate supply, it is also necessary to use structural policies to regulate the structure of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Third, improve the macroeconomic regulation and control policy system. This helps relevant departments rationalize the logic of regulation, enhance the ability to exert force from both the supply side and the demand side, and provide institutional guarantees for enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientations, thereby coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand and smoothing the national economic cycle.

从政策协调来看，要加强稳定政策、增长政策、结构政策的协同配合，着力增强宏观政策取向一致性。宏观政策理论和实践都表明，只靠某一类宏观政策既无法有效调节总需求，也无法有效调节总供给，更无法统筹两者之间的平衡。针对总需求，不仅要使用货币政策和财政政策等稳定政策调节总需求规模，还要使用结构政策调节总需求结构。针对总供给，不仅要使用增长政策调节总供给规模，还要使用结构政策调节总供给结构。针对总需求和总供给之间的良性循环，不仅要使用结构政策将潜在增速提升至最优宏观经济结构所对应的最优增速，还要统筹稳定政策、增长政策和结构政策以形成更高水平的供需动态均衡。统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，关键在于增强各类宏观政策的取向一致性。一是增强货币政策、财政政策的取向一致性。这有利于加强两者之间的协调配合，更有效地扩大总需求和应对当前经济运行的主要矛盾。二是增强稳定政策、增长政策、结构政策的取向一致性。西方发达国家宏观政策的体制机制存在缺陷，多个利益集团的利益分歧导致宏观政策往往难以实现有效协调。不同于西方发达国家，中国宏观经济治理中的长期政策实践能够有效统筹稳定政策、增长政策和结构政策，实现“三策合一”，进而从总供给和总需求两侧同时发力，对经济持续发展形成重要支撑。因此，除了使用稳定政策对总需求规模进行调节，使用增长政策对总供给规模进行调节，还要使用结构政策对总需求结构和总供给结构进行调节。三是完善宏观调控政策体系。这有助于相关部门理顺调控逻辑，提升从供给侧和需求侧双向发力的能力，为增强宏观政策取向一致性提供机制保障，从而统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，畅通国民经济循环。

(The author is a Distinguished Research Fellow of the Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Director of the Institute of Industrial Economics)

（作者系中国社会科学院习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心特约研究员、工业经济研究所所长）

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