Basic Characteristics and Development Direction of the Modern Industrial System

The modern industrial system is the material and technological foundation of Chinese-path modernization, and building a modern industrial system is an important pillar of economic modernization. The proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1]1 The 15th Five-Year Plan refers to China’s national economic and social development plan for the period 2026–2030., reviewed and approved at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC [2]2 The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC was held in 2024., places “building a modern industrial system and consolidating and strengthening the foundation of the real economy” in a prominent position within the strategic layout, and emphasizes adherence to the direction of intelligentization, greenification, and integration. This not only clarifies the basic characteristics of the modern industrial system but also provides a practical path for building a modern industrial system with completeness, advanced nature, and security. Entering the period of the 15th Five-Year Plan, facing new situations, new tasks, and new challenges, accurately and systematically grasping the basic characteristics and development direction of the modern industrial system, and advancing the construction of the modern industrial system with clear goals, will help to break through development bottlenecks, reshape competitive advantages, and thereby enable China to gain strategic initiative in future development and international competition.

现代化产业体系是中国式现代化的物质技术基础，建设现代化产业体系是经济现代化的重要支撑。党的二十届四中全会审议通过的“十五五”规划建议，将“建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基”置于战略布局突出位置，并强调坚持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向，既明确了现代化产业体系的基本特征，也为建设具有完整性、先进性、安全性的现代化产业体系提供了实践路径。进入“十五五”时期，面对新形势新任务新挑战，准确系统地把握现代化产业体系的基本特征和发展方向，目标明确地推进现代化产业体系建设，有利于破解发展瓶颈、重塑竞争优势，进而使我国在未来发展和国际竞争中赢得战略主动。

Focusing on Intelligentization to Drive the Transformation of Growth Drivers

聚焦智能化推进动能转换

The intelligentization of the industrial system is both an inevitable choice for seizing the opportunities of the new round of technological revolution and building a modern industrial system, and a key breakthrough point for promoting the transformation of old and new growth drivers. Its essence is to reshape the allocation of production factors, organizational forms, and business models through the deep integration of artificial intelligence and the real economy, achieving a fundamental shift in the driving force of development from factor-driven to innovation-driven. Currently, China already possesses a solid foundation and favorable conditions for developing intelligent manufacturing. As a general-purpose technology, artificial intelligence is profoundly transforming and upgrading traditional industries such as mining, metallurgy, light industry, and textiles, accelerating the formation of a data-driven production model, and significantly improving production efficiency and product quality.

产业体系的智能化，既是把握新一轮科技革命机遇、建设现代化产业体系的必然选择，也是推进新旧动能转换的关键突破口，其本质是通过人工智能与实体经济的深度融合，重塑生产要素配置方式、组织形态和商业模式，实现发展动力从要素驱动向创新驱动的根本转变。当前，我国已具备发展智能制造的坚实基础和有利条件。人工智能作为通用目的技术，正深刻改造升级矿业、冶金、轻工、纺织等传统产业，推动以数据驱动的生产模式加快形成，显著提升了生产效率与产品质量。

However, it must also be recognized that driving the transformation of old and new growth drivers through intelligentization still faces severe challenges. From the perspective of technology supply, the situation in which China is constrained by others in key core technologies in some fields has not fundamentally changed, and original innovation capabilities need to be strengthened. From the perspective of application and integration, the breadth and depth of “AI+” applications need to be expanded, the digital transformation of traditional industries is still in its initial stage overall, and the supply of customized, implementable, and low-cost solutions is insufficient. In addition, some small and medium-sized enterprises lack endogenous motivation for transformation, specifically manifested as being “unwilling to transform” due to a lack of awareness of digital transformation, fault-tolerant mechanisms, and room for trial and error; being “daring not to transform” due to doubts about input-output ratios and unclear expectations of investment returns; and being “unable to transform” due to a lack of funds, technical support, and replicable solutions.

然而也要看到，以智能化驱动新旧动能转换仍面临严峻挑战。从技术供给看，我国一些领域关键核心技术受制于人的局面尚未根本改变，原始创新能力有待加强。从应用融合看，“人工智能+”应用的广度和深度有待拓展，传统产业数字化转型整体上尚处于起步阶段，定制化、可落地、低成本的解决方案供给不足。此外，一些中小企业转型内生动力不足，具体表现为因缺乏数字化转型认知、容错机制和试错空间而“不愿转”，因对投入产出存在疑虑和对投资回报预期不明而“不敢转”，因缺乏资金、技术支持和可复制方案而“不会转”。

Therefore, “AI+” must be promoted in depth as a systematic project. First, strengthen basic research and development in artificial intelligence. Targeting weak links in the basic and technical layers of AI, organize and implement scientific research innovation models such as “open competition to select the best candidates” [3]3 “Open competition to select the best candidates” (揭榜挂帅) is a Chinese mechanism for allocating R&D tasks by publicly posting challenges and inviting bids, often used to accelerate breakthroughs in key technologies., increase long-term stable investment, improve the evaluation and incentive mechanisms for scientific researchers, build innovation consortia with enterprises as the main body and deep integration of industry, academia, and research, and accelerate technological breakthroughs and the transformation of achievements. Second, deepen the comprehensive empowerment of “AI+” across thousands of industries. Deeply explore and open up application scenarios, cultivate a group of digital solution providers deeply rooted in specific industries and proficient in process flows, and develop and promote modular, lightweight, and low-cost digital toolkits. Third, strengthen factor guarantees. Accelerate the cultivation of a national unified data market, and promote the high-quality supply, sharing, and opening of data elements. Encourage universities to strengthen the establishment of interdisciplinary majors and actively cultivate composite talents with artificial intelligence literacy. Introduce support policies for digital transformation targeting small and medium-sized enterprises, establish supporting risk-sharing mechanisms, and deploy a number of digital transformation promotion centers by industry and region. At the same time, establish and improve relevant laws, regulations, standards, and norms, build an ethical and security governance framework, and ensure the healthy and orderly development of artificial intelligence.

因此，必须将“人工智能+”作为一项系统工程深入推进。一是强化人工智能的基础性研究和开发。瞄准人工智能基础层、技术层薄弱环节，组织实施“揭榜挂帅”等科研创新模式，加大长期稳定投入，完善科研人员评价与激励机制，构建以企业为主体、产学研深度融合的创新联合体，加速技术突破和成果转化。二是深化“人工智能+”全方位赋能千行百业。深度挖掘并开放应用场景，培育一批深耕特定行业、精通工艺流程的数字化解决方案供应商，开发推广模块化、轻量化、低成本的数字工具箱。三是加强要素保障。加快培育全国一体化数据市场，推进数据要素高质量供给和共享开放。鼓励高校加强交叉学科专业设置，积极培育具有人工智能素养的复合型人才。针对中小企业出台数字化转型支持政策，配套建立风险共担机制，分行业分区域布局一批数字化转型促进中心。同时，建立健全相关法律法规、标准规范，构建伦理和安全治理框架，保障人工智能健康有序发展。

Highlighting Greenification to Consolidate the Ecological Foundation

突出绿色化夯实生态基础

The greenification of the industrial system is both a key path to achieving high-quality development and the “dual carbon” goals [4]4 “Dual carbon” goals refer to China’s pledges to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060., and an inherent requirement for addressing climate change, protecting the ecological environment, and realizing the harmonious coexistence of humanity and nature. Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [5]5 The 18th National Congress of the CPC was held in 2012., China has unswervingly implemented the new development philosophy, adhered to the path of prioritizing ecology and pursuing green and low-carbon development, vigorously developed clean energy, accelerated green and low-carbon technological innovation and the promotion and application of advanced green technologies, built the world’s most systematic and complete carbon emission reduction policy system, established the world’s largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, and formed the world’s largest and most complete new energy industry chain. These have profoundly changed China’s energy structure, industrial ecology, and drivers of economic growth.

产业体系的绿色化既是实现高质量发展和“双碳”目标的关键路径，也是应对气候变化和保护生态环境、实现人与自然和谐共生的内在要求。党的十八大以来，我国坚定不移贯彻新发展理念，坚持走生态优先、绿色低碳发展道路，大力发展清洁能源，加快绿色低碳技术创新和先进绿色技术推广应用，构建了全球最系统完备的碳减排政策体系，建成了全球最大、发展最快的可再生能源体系，形成了全球最大、最完整的新能源产业链。这些都深刻改变着我国的能源结构、产业生态和经济增长动力。

Taking the new energy vehicle industry as an example, in 2024, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 12 million units, and the export volume of electric vehicles exceeded 2 million units for the first time. Green products and technical standards are going global, reshaping the international competitive landscape. This is not only the result of market choices but also demonstrates the strong endogenous driving force of green transformation. The development of the new energy vehicle industry provides a clear practical path for building a green and low-carbon industrial system. At the level of technology driving, the continuous iteration of green technologies directly promotes a revolutionary improvement in energy storage and utilization efficiency. At the level of market leadership, the rapid increase in market penetration has profoundly changed the energy consumption structure of the important carbon emission field of transportation, driving the green transformation of the automotive industry. At the level of whole-industry-chain restructuring, China has formed a complete industrial chain covering raw material supply, battery production, vehicle manufacturing, and the construction of charging and battery-swapping facilities, building a closed-loop ecology “from green manufacturing to green operation to circular regeneration,” with huge industrial linkage effects.

以新能源汽车产业为例，2024年我国新能源汽车产销量均超1200万辆，电动汽车出口量首次突破200万辆，绿色产品与技术标准走向全球，重塑国际竞争格局。这不仅是市场选择的结果，更彰显了绿色转型强劲的内生动力。新能源汽车产业的发展为建设绿色低碳产业体系提供了清晰的实践路径。在技术驱动层面，绿色技术的持续迭代直接推动能源存储与利用效率的革命性提升。在市场引领层面，市场渗透率的迅速跃升深刻改变了交通运输这一重要碳排放领域的能源消费结构，带动了汽车产业的绿色化转型。在全产业链重构层面，我国已形成涵盖原材料供应、电池生产、整车制造、充换电设施建设等在内的全产业链，构建起“从绿色制造到绿色运营再到循环再生”的闭环生态，产业关联效应巨大。

Looking to the future, the green transformation of the industrial system still faces difficulties and problems such as the need to strengthen the green resilience of the industrial and supply chains, insufficient security of supply for key raw materials, and the lack of product carbon footprint regulatory systems and application mechanisms, which need to be further addressed. First, strengthen the research and development of key core technologies, prospectively deploy green technologies, and use artificial intelligence to accelerate the coordinated development of digitalization and greenification. Second, strengthen green management throughout the product life cycle and formulate unified product carbon footprint accounting standards. Third, deepen coordination across multiple sectors such as energy, transportation, and industry, improve market-based incentive and constraint mechanisms, and explore the use of mechanisms such as the national carbon market to help realize the green value of products. Through policy guidance, technological innovation, and market promotion, deeply integrate the concept of greenification into the genes of all industries, build new engines for green growth, forge new advantages in green competition, polish the ecological foundation of the new type of industrialization [6]6 “New type of industrialization” (新型工业化) is a CPC policy concept emphasizing innovation-driven, green, and integrated industrial development, distinct from earlier industrialization models., consolidate the ecological foundation for high-quality economic development, and lead the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development at a higher level.

面向未来，产业体系的绿色化转型还存在产业链供应链绿色韧性有待加强、关键原材料供应安全保障不够、产品碳足迹监管制度和应用机制缺失等困难和问题，需进一步加以解决。一要加强关键核心技术攻关，前瞻布局绿色技术，利用人工智能赋能加速数字化绿色化协同发展。二要强化产品全生命周期绿色管理，制定统一的产品碳足迹核算标准。三要深化能源、交通、工业等多部门协同，健全市场化激励约束机制，探索通过全国碳市场等机制助力实现产品的绿色价值。通过政策引导、技术创新和市场推动，将绿色化理念深度融入所有产业基因，构建绿色增长新引擎，锻造绿色竞争新优势，擦亮新型工业化生态底色，为经济高质量发展筑牢生态基础，并在更高层次上引领经济社会发展全面绿色转型。

Adhering to Integration to Enhance Overall Effectiveness

坚持融合化提升整体效能

The integrated development of the industrial system is a prominent feature and development trend of the modern industrial system. Among them, promoting the deep integration of the three industries [7]7 The “three industries” are primary (agriculture), secondary (manufacturing and construction), and tertiary (services) sectors., the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation with industrial innovation, and the deep integration of the real economy with the digital economy are important aspects of integrated development. Through integrated development, industrial boundaries, technological barriers, and obstacles to factor flow can be broken, achieving the “dual-wheel drive” of increasing quantity and improving quality on the one hand, and renewing existing stock on the other, thereby continuously enhancing the overall effectiveness of the industrial system.

产业体系的融合化发展，是现代化产业体系的显著特征和发展趋势。其中，推动三次产业深度融合、科技创新和产业创新深度融合、实体经济和数字经济深度融合是融合化发展的重要方面。通过融合发展，可打破产业边界、技术壁垒与要素流动障碍，实现增量提质和存量焕新“双轮驱动”，持续提升产业体系整体效能。

Promoting the service-oriented transformation of manufacturing is a key measure for achieving China’s leap from a large manufacturing country to a strong manufacturing country. In recent years, the level of service-oriented manufacturing development in China has been continuously rising, but the competitive advantage on the service side is not yet strong enough, which to a certain extent restricts the manufacturing industry’s climb to both ends of the “smiling curve” [8]8 The “smiling curve” is a business concept describing value-added distribution along a production chain, with higher value at the R&D and marketing ends and lower value in assembly.. To this end, consideration can be given to vigorously developing producer services, promoting the deep integration of producer services with advanced manufacturing, and leveraging digital technology to empower the R&D and design, brand marketing, and after-sales service links of manufacturing enterprises. At the same time, cultivate innovative producer financial services, guide financial resources to tilt towards the manufacturing industry, and prevent finance from being detached from the real economy.

推动制造业服务化转型是实现我国从制造大国到制造强国跃升的关键举措。近年我国服务型制造发展水平持续上升，但在服务端的竞争优势还不够强，一定程度上制约了制造业向“微笑曲线”两端攀升。为此，可考虑大力发展生产性服务业，推动生产性服务业同先进制造业深度融合，依托数字技术赋能制造业企业研发设计、品牌营销、售后服务等环节。同时培育创新生产性金融服务，引导金融资源向制造业倾斜，避免金融脱实向虚。

With the deepening evolution of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, seizing opportunities for scientific and technological innovation and vigorously promoting the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation with industrial innovation, as well as the deep integration of the real economy with the digital economy, have become the path choice for cultivating and strengthening new quality productive forces and gaining new advantages in competition among major powers. In this process, it is necessary to adhere to the equal emphasis on optimizing and upgrading traditional industries and cultivating and strengthening emerging and future industries. On the one hand, China’s traditional industries have a huge scale, with main indicators such as added value and employment accounting for about 80% of all manufacturing, forming the basic foundation of China’s real economy. In recent years, China has fully utilized digital technologies such as artificial intelligence to transform and upgrade traditional industries, significantly improving production efficiency in related industries, substantially reducing energy and material consumption and defective product rates, and radiating new vitality. On the other hand, emerging and future industries are important fronts for cultivating new quality productive forces. Currently, the leading and supporting role of emerging industries is increasingly strengthening, forming significant advantages in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence, new energy, and biomanufacturing. In addition, in the digital industry field, the generative artificial intelligence industry has experienced explosive growth, fully demonstrating the enormous potential of digital technology innovation in driving industrial innovation. The digital economy is continuously opening up new fields and tracks, shaping new momentum and new advantages.

随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革深入演进，抢抓科技创新机遇并着力推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合、实体经济和数字经济深度融合，成为培育壮大新质生产力、赢得大国竞争新优势的路径选择。在此过程中，必须坚持优化提升传统产业和培育壮大新兴产业、未来产业并重。一方面，我国传统产业体量庞大，增加值、用工人数等主要指标占全部制造业的80%左右，是我国实体经济的基本盘。近年来，我国充分运用人工智能等数字技术对传统产业进行改造升级，相关产业生产效率显著提升，能耗物耗和不良品率大幅下降，焕发出新的生机活力。另一方面，新兴产业和未来产业是培育新质生产力的重要阵地。目前，新兴产业的引领支撑作用日益增强，已在人工智能、新能源、生物制造等前沿领域形成显著优势。此外，在数字产业领域，生成式人工智能产业迎来爆发式增长，充分证明了数字技术创新在推动产业创新方面的巨大潜能，数字经济正不断开辟新领域新赛道，塑造新动能新优势。

At present, China still faces many challenges in promoting the integration of science and industry and the integration of the real and digital economies. Regarding scientific and technological innovation capability, the situation where key core technologies are controlled by others still exists, and the overall innovation level is not yet high enough. Regarding the development of the digital economy, the number of newly added digital economy unicorn enterprises remains insufficient, and in recent years, the output value scale of leading enterprises has fluctuated. Regarding the real economy itself, compared with some developed countries, the efficiency of China’s emerging industries is not yet high enough, and the intensity of innovation investment in some traditional industries remains relatively low. In response, it is necessary to adhere to “walking on two legs.” On the one hand, adopt extraordinary measures to promote breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas, vigorously cultivate innovative enterprises in the digital economy, and provide high-quality technological supply for the growth of the real economy. On the other hand, deepen technology integration, business integration, and market integration, and vigorously promote the transformation of scientific and technological innovation achievements into tangible productive forces. Through the efficient flow and allocation of innovation resources between increments and stocks, achieve the seizing of positions in emerging industries and the transformation and renewal of traditional industries, forming an industrial ecosystem where “old trees sprout new shoots” and “new trees take deep root” complement each other.

眼下，我国在推动科产融合、实数融合方面还面临诸多挑战。就科技创新能力而言，关键核心技术受制于人的情况仍然存在，整体创新水平还不够高；就数字经济发展而言，数字经济独角兽企业新增数量仍显不足，近年来领军企业产值规模有所波动；就实体经济自身而言，与一些发达国家相比，我国新兴产业效率还不够高，部分传统行业创新投入强度依然偏低。对此，必须坚持“两条腿走路”。一方面采取超常规措施推动重点领域关键核心技术攻关，大力培育数字经济创新型企业，为实体经济壮大提供高质量技术供给。另一方面深化技术融合、业务融合、市场融合，大力推动科技创新成果转化为实实在在的生产力。通过创新资源在增量和存量之间的高效流动配置，实现新兴产业抢滩占先与传统产业改造焕新，形成“老树发新芽”与“新树深扎根”交相辉映的产业生态。

Continuously Strengthen Completeness, Advancement, and Security

持续增强完整性先进性安全性

On the basis of synergistically promoting intelligent empowerment, green transformation, and integrated development, the ultimate goal is to achieve an overall qualitative leap in the industrial system and build a modernized industrial system that meets the requirements of completeness, advancement, and security. This is an important yardstick for measuring its maturity. Completeness is the foundation, relying on China’s super-large market advantages to maintain and strengthen the advantages of a complete industrial system and strong supporting capabilities, ensuring the stability of the overall economy. Advancement is the key, through continuous technological innovation, process innovation, and model innovation, to continuously enhance industrial added value, labor productivity, and international competitiveness. Security is the bottom line, focusing on key links and core areas of the industrial and supply chains, enhancing resilience against shocks, risks, and chain disruptions, and ensuring the smooth circulation of the national economy. The three are interdependent and mutually reinforcing. Completeness provides broad space and supporting support for advancement and security. Advancement provides impetus for improving the quality of completeness and the level of security. Security provides a guarantee for the sustainable development of completeness and advancement.

在协同推进智能化赋能、绿色化转型、融合化发展的基础上，最终落脚点在于实现产业体系整体质的跃升，建设符合完整性、先进性、安全性的现代化产业体系，这是衡量其成熟度的重要标尺。完整性是根基，依托我国超大规模市场优势，保持并增强产业体系完备和配套能力强的优势，确保经济大盘稳定；先进性是关键，通过持续的技术创新、工艺创新和模式创新，不断提升产业附加值、劳动生产率和国际竞争力；安全性是底线，聚焦产业链供应链的关键环节和核心领域，增强抗冲击、抗风险、抗断链的韧性，保障国民经济循环畅通。三者相互依存、相互促进，完整性为先进性和安全性提供广阔腹地和配套支撑，先进性为提升完整性的质量和安全性的水平提供动力，安全性则为完整性和先进性的持续发展保驾护航。

Currently, the global industrial and supply chains are undergoing accelerated restructuring, and China’s development has entered a critical stage of transitioning between old and new driving forces and deep structural adjustment. On the road to becoming a manufacturing powerhouse, it still faces many challenges, including breakpoints and blockages in key links of the industrial chain, the stability of the supply chain being vulnerable to external shocks such as geopolitics and emergencies, and the arduous task of green and low-carbon transformation across the entire chain. To this end, under the framework of coordinated driving by intelligence, greenness, and integration, it is necessary to focus on the following directions for sustained efforts. First, relying on intelligence and integration, enhance the modernization level and advancement of the industrial chain. Implement the industrial foundation reengineering project and the major technical equipment research project around key industrial chains, focusing on overcoming bottlenecks. Utilize technologies such as the Industrial Internet and 5G to build an industrial Internet platform driven by data elements, creating a flexible, intelligent, efficient, and transparent supply chain network, improving the overall efficiency of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Second, integrating greenness and integration, promote the deep optimization of the industrial structure and the construction of security resilience. Utilize technologies such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things to build a circular industrial chain from green procurement and low-carbon production to product recycling and reuse. Optimize industrial layout, promote the orderly domestic transfer of key industries, and systematically enhance the resilience of the industrial and supply chains. In this process, it is necessary to adhere to a systematic perspective, coordinate efforts from multiple aspects such as scientific and technological innovation, industrial policy, institutional mechanisms, and opening up to the outside world, balance development and security, take into account both the immediate and the long term, and ultimately achieve a systemic transformation in the quality, efficiency, and driving force of the industrial system, laying a solid material and technological foundation for comprehensively building a modern socialist country.

当前，全球产业链供应链加速重构，我国发展进入新旧动能转换、结构深度调整的关键阶段。在迈向制造强国的道路上，仍面临诸多挑战，包括产业链关键环节存在断点堵点，供应链稳定性易受地缘政治、突发事件等外部冲击，全链条绿色低碳转型任务艰巨等。为此，必须在智能化、绿色化、融合化协同驱动的框架下，聚焦以下方向持续攻坚。其一，依托智能化与融合化，提升产业链现代化水平与先进性。围绕重点产业链深入实施产业基础再造工程和重大技术装备攻关工程，着力攻克瓶颈。利用工业互联网和5G等技术，构建数据要素驱动的产业互联网平台，打造弹性、智能、高效、透明的供应链网络，提升产业链上下游整体效能。其二，贯穿绿色化与融合化，推动产业结构深度优化与安全韧性建设。利用人工智能、物联网等技术，构建从绿色采购、低碳生产到产品回收再利用的循环产业链。优化产业布局，促进重点产业在国内有序转移，系统提升产业链供应链韧性。在此过程中，应坚持系统观念，从科技创新、产业政策、体制机制、对外开放等多方面协同发力，统筹发展和安全、兼顾当前和长远，最终实现产业体系质量、效率与动力的系统性变革，为全面建成社会主义现代化强国奠定坚实物质技术基础。

(The author is a researcher at the Peking University Capital Development Research Institute and Dean of the School of Economics)

（作者系北京大学首都发展研究院研究员、经济学院院长）

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