Fully Tap China’s Economic Potential

The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference systematically summarized new understandings and insights for conducting economic work under the new circumstances, and explicitly put forward the “Five Musts,” providing a fundamental guideline for economic work in the current and future periods. Among them, “must fully tap economic potential” ranks first, requiring that in economic work we give full play to China’s characteristics of strong resilience, ample potential, and large room for maneuver, deeply understand potential, effectively stimulate it, and transform it into surging momentum for promoting high-quality development, continuously consolidating and expanding the sound momentum of economic stability and improvement.

2025年中央经济工作会议系统总结做好新形势下经济工作新的认识和体会，明确提出“五个必须”，为做好当前和今后一个时期的经济工作提供了根本遵循。其中，“必须充分挖掘经济潜能”居于首位，要求在经济工作中充分发挥我国韧性强、潜力足、回旋余地大等特点，深刻认识潜能，有效激发潜能，将其转化为推动经济高质量发展的澎湃动能，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。

Why Should We Attach Importance to Tapping Economic Potential?

为什么要重视挖掘经济潜能

The Chinese economy is large in scale, and also large in potential. Large scale means it can achieve internal circulation and strong economic resilience, can achieve independence and self-reliance, and better resist internal and external risks. Large potential means that existing development advantages have not been fully exploited or utilized, development capacity has not been fully demonstrated or released, and the space for future economic growth and progress is broad. The Central Economic Work Conference placed “must fully tap economic potential” at the height of regular understanding. This is both an accurate grasp of the inherent characteristics of China’s economy and a forward-looking judgment of future economic development trends; it is both a profound summary of past work experience and an important orientation for doing future work well.

中国经济，大在体量，也大在潜能。体量大，意味着能够实现内部可循环、经济韧性强，能够实现独立自主、自立自强，更好抵御内外部风险。潜能大，意味着现有发展优势未被充分开发利用，发展能力尚未完全展现或释放，经济未来成长进步空间广阔。中央经济工作会议将“必须充分挖掘经济潜能”置于规律性认识的高度，这既是对我国经济内在特征的准确把握，也是对未来经济发展趋势的前瞻判断；既是过去工作经验的深刻总结，也是做好未来工作的重要导向。

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s economic development achieved major breakthroughs. The total economic output steadily climbed, successively crossing the thresholds of 110 trillion yuan, 120 trillion yuan, and 130 trillion yuan, and is expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan in 2025. The economic structure continued to optimize, with domestic demand, especially consumption, increasingly consolidating its role as the main engine of economic growth; from 2021 to 2024, the average contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth was close to 60%. Innovation-driven development achieved notable results, with new industries, new business forms, and new models emerging continuously. An important experience in achieving these results is that we not only deeply recognized the huge vertical potential of China’s economy, but also effectively stimulated potential through precise policy implementation and transformed it into tangible development advantages. For example, implementing more proactive and impactful macro policies, adhering to the combination of boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, stimulating the potential of the super-large market; strengthening innovation leadership, taking the development of new quality productive forces as a key lever, promoting the deep integration of technology, industry, finance, and talent, transforming innovation potential into momentum for high-quality development; and so on.

“十四五”时期，我国经济发展取得重大突破。经济总量稳步攀升，连续跨过110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元的台阶，2025年预计达到140万亿元左右。经济结构持续优化，内需特别是消费对经济增长的主引擎作用日益巩固，2021年至2024年最终消费对经济增长的平均贡献率接近60%。创新驱动发展成效显著，新产业、新业态、新模式不断涌现。这些成绩的取得，一个重要经验就是我们不仅深刻认识到我国经济巨大的纵深潜力，更能通过精准施策有效激发潜能，并将其转化为实实在在的发展优势。比如，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，坚持提振消费与提高投资效益相结合，激发超大规模市场潜力；强化创新引领，将发展新质生产力作为关键抓手，推动科技、产业、金融、人才深度融合，将创新潜能转化为高质量发展动能；等等。

Currently, China’s internal and external development environment is undergoing profound changes. A new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating and breaking through. Major-country competition is becoming more complex and intense. China is in a critical period of Chinese-path modernization. For fully tapping economic potential, it must be elevated to a new strategic level to grasp and advance.

当前，我国内外部发展环境正发生深刻变化，新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速突破，大国博弈更加复杂激烈，我国正处于中国式现代化建设的关键时期。对于充分挖掘经济潜能，必须提升到新的战略层面来把握和推进。

From the perspective of grasping the theme of high-quality development, stimulating potential is an inevitable choice for meeting challenges and achieving upgrading. China has shifted to a stage of high-quality development. In 2024, per capita GDP rose to 13,445 US dollars, exceeding 13,000 US dollars for two consecutive years, ranking among the forefront of upper-middle-income countries. To achieve the goal of “per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries” by 2035 means that economic development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period must maintain an appropriate speed. Currently, the renewal of traditional growth drivers and the cultivation of new drivers need to be connected. It is necessary to achieve a smooth transition and transformation through deeply tapping comprehensive potential in market size, industrial system, human resources, innovation capacity, and other aspects.

从把握高质量发展主题来看，激发潜能是应对挑战、实现升级的必然选择。我国已转向高质量发展阶段，2024年人均国内生产总值提升至13445美元，连续两年超过1.3万美元，位居中等偏上收入国家前列。要实现到2035年“人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平”的目标，意味着“十五五”时期经济发展要保持适当速度。当下，传统增长动能更新与新动能培育亟待衔接，必须通过深度挖掘在市场规模、产业体系、人力资源、创新能力等方面的综合潜能来实现平稳过渡和转换。

From the perspective of building a new development pattern, stimulating potential is an important requirement for leveraging the potential of domestic demand and achieving a high level of self-reliance and self-strengthening. The key to building a new development pattern lies in fully relying on China’s super-large market advantages, cultivating and tapping the domestic demand market, adhering to independent innovation, promoting industrial structure optimization and transformation and upgrading, strengthening the domestic great circulation, and using the stability of the domestic circulation to hedge against the uncertainty of the international circulation. Tapping economic potential emphasizes transforming the scale advantage of the domestic demand market into real economic growth by optimizing resource allocation, stimulating market vitality, and releasing growth momentum, providing strong support for building a new development pattern.

从构建新发展格局来看，激发潜能是发挥内需潜力、实现高水平自立自强的重要要求。构建新发展格局，关键在于充分依托我国超大规模市场优势，培育和挖掘内需市场，坚持自主创新，推动产业结构优化和转型升级，做强国内大循环，以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定性。挖掘经济潜能强调通过优化资源配置、激发市场活力、释放增长动力，将内需市场的规模优势转化为现实经济增长，为构建新发展格局提供强大支撑。

Specifically at the operational level, the stimulation of potential must fully consider China’s unique national conditions as a vast country, and create a new pattern of coordinated regional development through effective market mechanisms and regional policies. The large differences between regions in resource endowments, industrial foundations, and development stages are not simply development challenges, but constitute a huge space for echelon relay and complementary development. In this regard, the key lies in accelerating the construction of a unified national market, promoting the orderly flow and optimal allocation of factors, which is also an important aspect of stimulating economic potential and shaping growth momentum.

具体到现实操作层面，潜能的激发要充分考虑我国作为幅员辽阔大国的独特国情，通过有效的市场机制和区域政策，打造区域协调发展新格局。地区之间资源禀赋、产业基础、发展阶段差异较大，并非单纯的发展挑战，而是构成了梯次接力、互补发展的巨大空间。对此，关键在于加快构建全国统一大市场，促进要素有序流动和优化配置，这亦是激发经济潜能、塑造增长动力的重要方面。

In What Aspects Is China’s Economic Potential Embodied?

我国的经济潜能体现在哪些方面

The proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan states that “China’s economic foundation is stable, advantages are numerous, resilience is strong, and potential is large. The supporting conditions and basic trends for long-term improvement have not changed. The advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the super-large market advantage, the complete industrial system advantage, and the rich human resources advantage are more evident.” This statement very accurately summarizes the advantages of China’s economic development. These advantages also indicate that China’s economy contains huge development potential. In reality, economic potential is embodied in four major dividends that can be continuously released during development.

“十五五”规划建议提出，“我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显”。这一论述非常精准地概括了我国经济发展的优势，这些优势也说明我国经济蕴含着巨大发展潜能。在现实中，经济潜能体现为发展中能够持续释放的四大红利。

First, the institutional dividend. The institutional dividend mainly comes from “the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics.” The greatest advantage of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics is the leadership of the Communist Party of China, possessing the strong organizational and mobilization capacity to “concentrate resources to accomplish large undertakings” and the overall planning and coordination capacity of “the whole country as a single chessboard.” It can anchor long-term goals, maintain strategic focus, strengthen top-level design and resource coordination, and maintain policy continuity and stability. This not only effectively mobilizes the initiative, enthusiasm, and creativity of all parties, but also, by building a stable and predictable institutional environment, effectively transforms institutional potential into strong support for stimulating market vitality and releasing growth momentum. The proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly puts forward the goal requirement of “achieving new breakthroughs in further deepening reform comprehensively,” which will promote the socialist market economy system to become more complete, thereby better stimulating institutional advantages, continuously releasing institutional dividends, and forming a strong synergy for economic development.

第一，制度红利。制度红利主要来自于“中国特色社会主义制度优势”。中国特色社会主义制度的最大优势是中国共产党领导，具备“集中力量办大事”的强大组织动员能力和“全国一盘棋”的统筹协调能力，能够锚定长远目标保持战略定力、强化顶层设计与资源统筹，保持政策的连续性和稳定性。这不仅能够有效调动各方面的积极性、主动性和创造性，更通过构建稳定可预期的制度环境，将制度潜力切实转化为激发市场活力、释放增长动能的强大支撑。“十五五”规划建议明确提出“进一步全面深化改革取得新突破”的目标要求，这将推动社会主义市场经济体制更加完善，从而更好激发制度优势，持续释放制度红利，形成经济发展强大合力。

Second, the market dividend. The market dividend mainly comes from “the super-large market advantage.” As the world’s most potential market, China’s market scale is continuously expanding, market space is continuously broadening, market levels are continuously improving, and application scenarios are continuously enriching. The simultaneous improvement in the quantity and quality of the market is releasing market dividends. In terms of scale, China has a population of over 1.4 billion, with a middle-income group exceeding

第二，市场红利。市场红利主要来自于“超大规模市场优势”。作为全球最具潜力的市场，我国市场规模不断扩大、市场空间不断拓展、市场层次不断提升、应用场景不断丰富，市场的量质齐升正在释放市场红利。从规模来看，我国有14亿多人口，中等收入群体超过4亿人，居民收入水平和消费规模稳步增长。从空间来看，我国深入实施区域协调发展战略、新型城镇化战略，农村地区和欠发达地区将可能成为快速增长的新兴市场，带来市场空间的持续拓展。从层次来看，我国消费升级趋势明显，教育、医疗、文化、旅游等服务消费快速增长，消费者更加注重品牌、质量、健康、环保，高端消费品和高品质服务类产品需求旺盛。从场景来看，我国超大规模市场能够为新技术提供丰富的应用场景，不仅能够为开发者提供收益，而且多样化的市场需求可以降低试错成本，从而促进新技术快速大规模应用和迭代升级，加快科技成果向现实生产力转化。

Third, the industrial dividend. The industrial dividend mainly derives from the "advantage of a complete industrial system." China is the country with the most complete industrial system in the world, possessing the largest-scale and most comprehensive production and manufacturing system globally. A complete industrial system not only enhances the efficiency of the industrial and supply chains, enabling the provision of a fuller range of manufactured products at lower cost and higher efficiency, but also facilitates better integration of the industrial chain and innovation chain, thereby improving the quality and efficiency of industrial innovation. In the next stage, China's industrial system will accelerate its transformation and upgrading, primarily reflected in the advancement of emerging industries driving the upgrading of the industrial structure, as well as the extension of industries to the higher end of the value chain, which will significantly increase the added value of products and services. This will propel China from a large industrial country toward a strong industrial country, injecting powerful momentum into economic growth.

第三，产业红利。产业红利主要来自于“完整产业体系优势”。我国是世界上产业体系最完备的国家，拥有全球规模最大、门类最齐全的生产制造体系。配套完整的产业体系不仅能够提升产业链供应链效率，以更低成本更快效率提供更加齐全的制造产品，而且有利于更好推动产业链创新链融合，提升产业创新质量和效率。下一阶段，我国产业体系将加快转型升级，主要体现在新兴产业发展推动产业结构高级化，以及产业向价值链高端延伸，从而使产品和服务的附加值大幅提升。这将推动我国从工业大国迈向工业强国，为经济增长注入强大动能。

Fourth, the demographic dividend. The demographic dividend comes mainly from “abundant human resource advantages.” As of the end of 2024, China’s working-age population aged 16 to 59 stood at approximately 860 million, and the labor supply remains ample. At the same time, the quality of the workforce is accelerating upward. In 2024, the average number of years of education received by China’s working-age population reached 11.21 years, and the average for new entrants to the labor force exceeded 14 years; the proportion of citizens with scientific literacy reached 15.37 percent, an increase of 4.81 percentage points over 2020; the number of graduates from regular institutions of higher education exceeded 10 million, and the full-time equivalent of R&D personnel remained the largest in the world. This provides a huge demographic dividend for China’s economic development. It not only enhances enterprises’ technological innovation capacity and management level and promotes the development of knowledge-intensive industries, but also accelerates the rapid development of China’s science and technology, culture, education and other fields, achieves an all-round improvement in the quality of social civilization, and lays the foundation for the long-term economic and social development of the country.

第四，人才红利。人才红利主要来自于“丰富人才资源优势”。截至2024年底，我国16岁至59岁劳动年龄人口约为8.6亿，劳动力供给依然充裕。同时，劳动者素质加速提升。2024年，我国劳动年龄人口平均受教育年限达11.21年，新增劳动力平均受教育年限超过14年；公民具备科学素质的比例达到15.37%，比2020年提高4.81个百分点；普通高校毕业生人数超过1000万人，研发人员全时当量稳居世界首位。这为我国经济发展提供巨大的人才红利，不仅能够提高企业的技术创新能力和经营管理水平，推动知识密集型产业发展，而且能够促进我国科技、文化、教育等领域的快速发展，实现社会文明素养的全面提升，为经济社会长远发展奠定基础。

How to transform economic potential into development momentum

如何把经济潜能转化为发展动能

The key to tapping economic potential lies in transforming the four major advantages into four major dividends, thereby forming a powerful momentum that drives economic development. Specifically, efforts must be made to cultivate more new growth points and open up new space for development in areas such as deepening institutional and mechanism reform, expanding consumption and investment, promoting industrial innovation, and smoothing the virtuous cycle of education, science and technology, and talent.

挖掘经济潜能的关键在于将发展的四大优势转变为四大红利，进而形成推动经济发展的强劲动能。具体来看，需努力在深化体制机制改革、扩大消费和投资、推动产业创新、畅通教育科技人才良性循环等方面，培育更多新的增长点，开辟发展新空间。

Increase vitality and accelerate the building of a high-level socialist market economy system. Uphold and improve the basic socialist economic system, promote complementary advantages and common development of all forms of ownership, and fully stimulate the vitality of all types of business entities. Deepen market-oriented reform of production factors, establish and improve a unified urban-rural construction land market, a fully functional capital market, a smoothly flowing labor market, and an efficient technology market for transformation, remove institutional and mechanism obstacles, and promote the autonomous and orderly flow of factors. Strengthen the strategic guiding role of national development planning, improve mechanisms for inter-regional planning coordination, industrial collaboration, and benefit sharing, and create a dynamic situation in which different regions complement each other’s advantages and develop in tandem.

增活力，加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制。坚持和完善社会主义基本经济制度，促进各种所有制经济优势互补、共同发展，充分激发各类经营主体活力。深化生产要素市场化改革，建立健全城乡统一的建设用地市场、功能完善的资本市场、流动顺畅的劳动力市场、转化高效的技术市场，破除体制机制障碍，促进要素自主有序流动。强化国家发展规划战略导向作用，健全区域间规划统筹、产业协作、利益共享等机制，形成各地区优势互补、联动发展的生动局面。

Expand space and strengthen the domestic market through joint efforts on multiple fronts. On the consumption side, release consumption potential by steadily raising residents’ incomes and improving the social security system, and accelerate the formation of new consumption growth points such as new-energy vehicles, smart homes, education and medical care, cultural and entertainment tourism, and domestic “trendy products.” On the investment side, increase investment in areas such as scientific and technological innovation, green transformation, and people’s livelihood security, better leverage the role of state-owned enterprises in guaranteeing the construction of major infrastructure projects, and at the same time relax market access to stimulate private investment vitality. In addition, coordinate the advancement of urbanization with county towns as an important carrier and comprehensive rural revitalization, promote the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population, promote the unification of urban development with industrial support, employment transfer, and population agglomeration, promote a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment, and further release the potential of domestic demand.

拓空间，多端共同发力做强国内市场。在消费端，通过稳步提高居民收入、完善社会保障体系等释放消费潜力，加快形成新能源汽车、智能家居、教育医疗、文娱旅游、国货“潮品”等消费新增长点。在投资端，加大科技创新、绿色转型、民生保障等领域投资，更好发挥国有企业在推进重大基础设施建设中的保障作用，同时放宽市场准入，激发民间投资活力。另外，统筹推进以县城为重要载体的城镇化建设和乡村全面振兴，推进农业转移人口市民化，促进城镇发展与产业支撑、就业转移、人口集聚相统一，促进消费和投资实现良性循环，进一步释放内需潜力。

Strengthen momentum and persist in promoting industrial innovation through scientific and technological innovation. Increase support for basic research, applied basic research, and frontier research, give full play to the advantages of the new nationwide system for mobilizing resources, and push for decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas such as integrated circuits, industrial machine tools, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biological manufacturing across the entire chain. Strengthen the transformation of traditional industries, promote the upgrading and quality improvement of key industries, develop intelligent manufacturing, green manufacturing, and service-oriented manufacturing, and accelerate changes in industrial models and enterprise organizational forms. Accelerate the industrial application of scientific and technological innovation achievements, cultivate and strengthen emerging industries and future industries, and promote quantum technology, biological manufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communications to become new economic growth points.

强动能，坚持以科技创新推动产业创新。加大对基础研究、应用基础研究和前沿研究的扶持力度，充分发挥新型举国体制优势，全链条推动集成电路、工业母机、高端仪器、基础软件、先进材料、生物制造等重点领域关键核心技术攻关取得决定性突破。加强传统产业改造，推动重点产业提质升级，发展智能制造、绿色制造、服务型制造，加快产业模式和企业组织形态变革。加快科技创新成果的产业化应用，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，推动量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等成为新的经济增长点。

Improve efficiency and smooth the virtuous cycle of education, science and technology, and talent. Establish and improve a mechanism for adjusting disciplinary structures and a talent cultivation model driven by scientific and technological development and national strategic needs, and build a number of high-level scientific research platforms and talent cultivation bases around key areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and biotechnology. Accelerate the building of a national strategic talent force, focus on cultivating and bringing forth strategic scientists, first-class scientific and technological leaders and innovation teams, focus on cultivating and bringing forth outstanding engineers, master craftsmen, and highly skilled personnel, and cultivate and bring forth a talent force that is large in scale, reasonable in structure, and excellent in quality. Improve the talent cultivation mechanism, fully stimulate the innovation and creativity of talent, and accelerate the formation of a talent system with international competitiveness.

提效能，畅通教育、科技、人才的良性循环。建立健全科技发展、国家战略需求牵引的学科设置调整机制和人才培养模式，围绕人工智能、量子科技、生物科技等重点领域，建设一批高水平科研平台和人才培养基地。加快建设国家战略人才力量，着力培养造就战略科学家、一流科技领军人才和创新团队，着力培养造就卓越工程师、大国工匠、高技能人才，培养造就规模宏大、结构合理、素质优良的人才队伍。完善人才培养机制，充分激发人才创新创造活力，加快形成具有国际竞争力的人才制度体系。

Tapping economic potential is a systematic project; it is necessary to grasp the key points of effort in the overall situation. We must focus on the present while discerning trends; we must increase policy support while promoting reform and innovation; we must respond to external challenges while strengthening our internal capabilities. To this end, we must adhere to strategic thinking, systematic thinking, and bottom-line thinking, coordinate the use of short-term and long-term policies, macro and micro policies, economic and non-economic policies, and stock and incremental policies, fully tap economic potential, and make full and good use of strategic advantages, laying a solid foundation for a good start and a good beginning in the period of the 15th Five-Year Plan [1]1 The 15th Five-Year Plan refers to China’s national economic and social development plan for the period 2026–2030..

挖掘经济潜能是一项系统工程，必须在大局中把握关键着力点。既要着眼当前，又要看清趋势；既要加大政策支持，又要推动改革创新；既要应对外部挑战，又要苦练内功。为此，要坚持战略思维、系统思维、底线思维，统筹用好短期政策和长期政策、宏观政策和微观政策、经济政策和非经济性政策、存量政策和增量政策，充分挖掘经济潜能，用足用好战略优势，为“十五五”时期开好局、起好步奠定坚实基础。

(The author is a specially-appointed researcher at the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Secretary of the Party Committee of the Institute of Finance and Banking)

（作者系中国社会科学院习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心特约研究员、金融研究所党委书记）

Online editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧