Deeply Grasp the “Five Musts” to Promote a Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan
钟才文:深刻把握“五个必须” 推动“十五五”良好开局
At the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year, General Secretary Xi Jinping, summarizing the practice of recent years, put forward a regular understanding for doing economic work well under the new situation: we must fully tap economic potential, we must adhere to both policy support and reform and innovation, we must achieve both “enlivening” and “managing well,” we must closely integrate investment in things with investment in people, and we must respond to external challenges by strengthening our internal capabilities. These “Five Musts” have profound connotations; they are both a scientific summary of past practical experience and a scientific guide for future economic and social development, further enriching and developing Xi Jinping’s economic thought. [1]1 The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC, held in November 2013, adopted the “Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms,” which outlined a comprehensive reform blueprint covering 15 areas and 336 specific measures. The period of the 15th Five-Year Plan is a critical period for consolidating the foundation and making comprehensive efforts to basically realize socialist modernization. This year marks the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan; a good start is half the battle. We must study, understand, implement, and carry out the important requirements of the “Five Musts,” strengthen confidence, overcome difficulties, strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals and tasks, and ensure a good start and a solid beginning for the 15th Five-Year Plan.
在去年底举行的中央经济工作会议上,习近平总书记总结近年来的实践,提出了做好新形势下经济工作的规律性认识:必须充分挖掘经济潜能,必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举,必须做到既“放得活”又“管得好”,必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合,必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。这“五个必须”内涵深刻,既是对过去实践经验的科学总结,也是对未来经济社会发展的科学指引,进一步丰富和发展了习近平经济思想。“十五五”时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。今年是“十五五”开局之年,良好的开局是成功的一半。我们要学习领会好、贯彻落实好“五个必须”的重要要求,坚定信心、攻坚克难,奋力实现全年经济社会发展目标任务,确保“十五五”开好局、起好步。
I. We Must Fully Tap Economic Potential
一 必须充分挖掘经济潜能
Fully tapping economic potential is crucial for continuously consolidating the material foundation of Chinese-path modernization. China is a major economy and a major country in terms of population. An important feature of a major economy is having ample room for maneuver and internal recyclability. We must make full use of the multiple advantages of China’s economy, accelerate quality changes, efficiency changes, and driving-force changes, strive to cultivate and form more new growth points, open up new development space from points to areas, and provide strong impetus for high-quality development.
充分挖掘经济潜能,对于不断夯实中国式现代化的物质基础至关重要。中国是一个经济和人口大国。大国经济的重要特征是回旋余地大、内部可循环。要充分用好我国经济的多重优势,加快质量变革、效率变革、动力变革,努力培育形成更多新的增长点,由点及面开辟发展新空间,为高质量发展提供强大动力。
China is the world’s second-largest economy and possesses some distinctive features. The vast market depth ensures internal recyclability. “China’s economy is a vast ocean, not a small pond”; [2]2 “Three-phase superposition” refers to the period when China’s economic growth rate is shifting gear, the economic structure is undergoing painful adjustment, and previous stimulus policies are being digested. its scale is large enough, its system is complete enough, and the diversity of demand and supply is strong. The effects of economies of scale, economies of scope, and network economies are evident. Production, distribution, circulation, and consumption are mainly realized domestically with efficient coordination and optimized resource allocation, enabling it to calmly respond to various risks and challenges. The favorable innovation ecosystem ensures that science and technology can achieve self-reliance and self-strengthening. Looking at past scientific and technological revolutions and industrial transformations, major countries possess sufficient innovation resources, room for trial and error, and application scenarios, and are conditionally able to lead global economic development trends and dominate the global industrial division of labor system. As a major economic, scientific, technological, and industrial power, China has a relatively complete innovation ecosystem and industrial ecosystem, capable of nurturing an independent technological system, controlling key links in the industrial chain, and achieving a high level of self-reliance and self-strengthening. The strong advantages of the industrial chain and supply chain ensure the ability to influence the global economic and trade landscape. China ranks first globally in goods trade and second in services trade; it is both a global super “buyer” and a super “seller,” and is the main trading partner of more than 150 countries and regions worldwide. Currently, a few countries are pursuing unilateralism and protectionism. China’s position in the global economy is becoming increasingly important; it is a key force influencing the global economic landscape and has the ability to actively shape a fair and reasonable international order.
中国是世界第二大经济体,具备一些鲜明特征。广阔的市场纵深确保了内部可循环。“中国经济是一片大海,而不是一个小池塘”,体量足够大、体系足够全、需求与供给多样性强,规模经济、范围经济、网络经济效应明显,生产、分配、流通、消费主要在国内实现高效衔接和资源配置优化,能从容应对各类风险挑战。优渥的创新生态确保了科技能自立自强。从历次科技革命和产业变革看,大国拥有充足的创新资源、试错空间和应用场景,有条件引领全球经济发展潮流、主导全球产业分工体系。中国作为经济大国、科技大国、工业大国,拥有较为完善的创新生态和产业生态,能够涵养自主技术体系、掌控产业链关键环节、实现高水平自立自强。强大的产业链供应链优势确保了能影响全球经贸格局。中国货物贸易全球第一、服务贸易全球第二,既是全球超级“买家”,也是超级“卖家”,是全球150多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴。当前,少数国家推行单边主义、保护主义,中国在全球经济中的地位愈加重要,是影响全球经济格局的关键力量,有能力主动塑造公正合理的国际秩序。
China is the world’s largest developing country and possesses many advantages. The socialist system with Chinese characteristics injects the greatest certainty into China’s economy. Under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, China’s economy has withstood the severe impact of the century
中国是世界最大的发展中国家,拥有许多优势。中国特色社会主义制度为中国经济注入最大确定性。在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下,中国经济经受住世纪疫情严重冲击,有效应对外部遏制打压等风险挑战,强化逆周期和跨周期调节应对经济下行压力,始终是世界经济增长的最大贡献者和稳定锚。超大规模市场是中国经济发展的“压舱石”。中国有14亿多人口,是全球最大、最具潜力的消费市场之一。新能源汽车、智能手机、白色家电、潮流玩具等领域的一大批中国品牌在国内市场发展壮大并走向海外,成为中国经济的新名片。完整产业体系是中国经济勇立潮头的最大底气。中国制造业规模连续十多年居全球首位,拥有全球最完整的制造业体系。面对全球经济“碎片化”趋势,中国制造不仅是自身经济发展根基和韧性所在,更是国际产业链供应链不可或缺的“稳定器”。高素质劳动者和企业家队伍为中国经济创新发展提供活力源泉。中国人才资源总量超2.2亿人,高层次科技人才数量居全球前列,优秀企业家队伍不断壮大。无论是国产大飞机、电磁弹射型航母等“大国重器”,还是DeepSeek(深度求索)、游戏《黑神话:悟空》等现象级新技术新产品,背后都活跃着一大批中国青年科学家、工程师和创业者的身影,他们是中国经济生生不息的最大动力源泉。
Synergistic efforts across the entire chain and multiple dimensions are needed to transform economic potential into actual effectiveness for high-quality development. Vigorously boost consumption and expand effective investment, and tap the potential of domestic demand. China’s household consumption rate is approximately 40%, with room for improvement of 10 to 20 percentage points compared with developed countries, and its per capita infrastructure stock has room for growth of 4 to 5 times compared with developed countries. Efforts must focus on cultivating more new growth points in areas such as high-quality goods and services consumption, investment in physical assets, and investment in people. Promote deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, and tap the potential of innovation. China is an important pole of global innovation and a significant contributor to human knowledge, possessing multiple advantages for seizing the strategic opportunities of this round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. Efforts must focus on expanding new technologies, new products, and new scenarios such as the intelligent economy, green economy, bioeconomy, and aerospace economy, and create several emerging pillar industries with high added value and strong leading capacity. Promote urban-rural integration and coordinated regional development, and tap the potential of space. The quality and level of China’s urbanization will continue to improve, agriculture will gradually develop into a modern large-scale industry, rural areas will gradually acquire modern living conditions, and regional development gaps will continue to narrow. Development potential must be tapped in solving the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development, and development space must be expanded in safeguarding and improving people’s livelihoods.
全链条多维度协同发力,把经济潜能转化为高质量发展的实际效能。大力提振消费、扩大有效投资,深挖内需潜力。中国居民消费率约40%,与发达国家相比有10—20个百分点的提升空间,人均基础设施存量与发达国家相比有4—5倍的增长空间。要在优质商品和服务消费、投资于物和投资于人等方面,着力培育更多新的增长点。推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合,深挖创新潜力。中国是全球创新的重要一极和人类知识的重要贡献者,具有把握本轮科技革命和产业变革战略机遇的多重优势。要着力拓展智能经济、绿色经济、生物经济、空天经济等新技术新产品新场景,打造若干附加值高、引领性强的新兴支柱产业。促进城乡融合和区域协调发展,深挖空间潜力。中国的城镇化质量和水平将持续提升,农业将逐步发展为现代化大产业,农村将逐步具备现代生活条件,区域间发展差距将持续缩小。要在解决发展不平衡不充分问题中挖掘发展潜力,在保障和改善民生中拓展发展空间。
II. The “Five Musts” — We Must Adhere to Both Policy Support and Reform and Innovation
二 必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举
Policy support and reform and innovation are like the two wheels of a cart or the two wings of a bird, complementing each other and being indispensable. To promote high-quality economic development, both effective policies and reform efforts are needed, and macro-control and deepening reform must be advanced in coordination to continuously achieve new results in high-quality development.
政策支持和改革创新如车之两轮、鸟之双翼,相辅相成、缺一不可。推动经济高质量发展,既要政策给力,又要改革发力,协同推进宏观调控和深化改革,推动高质量发展不断取得新成效。
Adhering to both policy support and reform and innovation is a practical experience of macroeconomic governance in the New Era. Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, in the face of profound changes in the domestic and international environment, the Party Central Committee made the major judgment that China’s economic development had entered a New Normal, adhered to “grasping with both hands” the strengthening of macro-control and the comprehensive deepening of reform, and wrote a new chapter in the two miracles of rapid economic development and long-term social stability. On the one hand, it innovated and improved macro-control, strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. It focused on making good use of the two major means of fiscal policy and monetary policy, leveraging the role of policies on industry, prices, employment, consumption, and investment, enhancing the consistency of macro-policy orientation, deeply advancing supply-side structural reform, striving to expand domestic demand, promoting dynamic balance between supply and demand, and keeping economic operations within a reasonable range. On the other hand, it adhered to comprehensively deepening reform, mobilizing the initiative, enthusiasm, and creativity of all parties. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC [1]1 The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC, held in November 2013, adopted the “Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms,” which outlined a comprehensive reform blueprint covering 15 areas and 336 specific measures. opened a new journey of comprehensively deepening reform and advancing reform with systematic and overall design in the New Era. China’s reforms in multiple fields such as finance, taxation, finance, science and technology, and ecology were comprehensively deepened, the basic institutional framework in various fields was basically established, and many fields achieved historic changes, systematic restructuring, and overall reconstruction. In practice, we adapted to the stage characteristics of the “three-phase superposition” [2]2 “Three-phase superposition” refers to the period when China’s economic growth rate is shifting gear, the economic structure is undergoing painful adjustment, and previous stimulus policies are being digested., focused on winning the “three critical battles” [3]3 The “three critical battles” refer to the battles against major risks, against poverty, and against pollution, launched around 2018., effectively responded to risk challenges such as the impact of the century-old pandemic and external suppression and containment, explored a path of macroeconomic governance that combines policy support and reform and innovation, and created a new situation in the construction of Chinese-path modernization.
坚持政策支持和改革创新并举,是新时代宏观经济治理的实践经验。党的十八大以来,面对深刻变化的国内外环境,党中央作出我国经济发展进入新常态的重大判断,坚持加强宏观调控和全面深化改革“两手抓”,书写了经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹新篇章。一方面,创新和完善宏观调控,强化逆周期和跨周期调节。注重用好财政政策、货币政策两大手段,发挥好产业、价格、就业、消费、投资等政策作用,增强宏观政策取向一致性,深入推进供给侧结构性改革,着力扩大国内需求,推动供需动态平衡,保持经济运行在合理区间。另一方面,坚持全面深化改革,调动各方面积极性主动性创造性。党的十八届三中全会开启了新时代全面深化改革、系统整体设计推进改革新征程,我国财税、金融、科技、生态等多领域改革全面深化,各领域基础性制度框架基本建立,许多领域实现历史性变革、系统性重塑、整体性重构。实践中,我们适应“三期叠加”阶段性特征,着力打好“三大攻坚战”,有效应对世纪疫情冲击、外部打压遏制等风险挑战,探索出了一条政策支持和改革创新并举的宏观经济治理路径,开创了中国式现代化建设新局面。
Adhering to the simultaneous advancement of policy support and reform and innovation is an inevitable choice for resolving multiple economic and social development challenges. Currently, cyclical, structural, and institutional problems in China’s economic development are interwoven. From an economic cycle perspective, global economic growth momentum is insufficient and recovery is weak, external demand faces considerable uncertainty and instability, the contradiction between strong domestic supply and weak demand is prominent, and the healthy circulation of the national economy encounters many blockages and pain points. From an economic structure perspective, China is still in a critical period of transitioning between old and new growth drivers, supply of some high-quality goods and services is insufficient, supply exceeds demand in some traditional industries, demographic changes pose new challenges to economic development and social governance, and the imbalance in urban-rural and regional development remains relatively prominent. From an economic system perspective, market-based allocation of factors of production is still insufficient, efforts to build a unified national market need to be strengthened, the business environment in some regions requires continuous optimization, and the vitality of some market entities has not yet been fully unleashed. These problems are superimposed and intertwined; there is no panacea that can cure all ills. Comprehensive measures must be adopted, coordinating policy support and reform and innovation to strive for maximum effectiveness.
坚持政策支持和改革创新并举,是破解经济社会发展多重难题的必然选择。当前,我国经济发展中周期性、结构性、体制性问题相互交织。从经济周期看,全球经济增长动能不足、复苏乏力,外需面临较大不确定性不稳定性,国内供强需弱矛盾突出,国民经济良性循环面临不少卡点堵点。从经济结构看,我国仍处于新旧动能转换的关键时期,一些高品质商品和服务供给不足,一些传统行业供大于求,人口结构变化向经济发展、社会治理等提出新课题,城乡区域发展不平衡问题仍较突出。从经济体制看,要素市场化配置还不充分,全国统一大市场建设仍需加力,部分地区营商环境有待持续优化,一些经营主体的活力尚未充分释放。这些问题交织叠加,没有包治百病的灵丹妙药能够解决,必须综合施策,协同推进政策支持和改革创新,努力发挥最大效能。
Adhering to the simultaneous advancement of policy support and reform and innovation requires achieving an organic integration of short-term macroeconomic regulation and medium-to-long-term institutional construction. Macro policies focus on counter-cyclical adjustment and short-term “fever reduction and pain relief” to stabilize the economic fundamentals. However, if lacking support from reform measures, policy effects will gradually diminish, and may even lead to the economy developing “policy dependence.” Reform and innovation are dedicated to removing institutional and mechanistic obstacles, long-term “physical strengthening and fitness,” and enhancing the endogenous driving force of the economy. Yet they are often accompanied by adjustment pains; without policy support to stabilize the basic economic plate, reforms are also difficult to advance sustainably and effectively. It is necessary to organically combine short-term macroeconomic regulation with medium-to-long-term institutional construction. On one hand, strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment, implement more proactive macro policies, continuously stabilize growth, employment, and expectations, and create favorable conditions for reform. On the other hand, reform must be placed in a more prominent position, using economic system reform as the driving force, closely centering on advancing Chinese-path modernization to further deepen reforms comprehensively, resolutely removing institutional and mechanistic drawbacks in various aspects, mobilizing the enthusiasm of localities and enterprises, and promoting the formation of more economic development models led by domestic demand, driven by consumption, and based on endogenous growth. Only when policy “blood transfusion” and reform “blood production” work in coordination can the organic unity of “short-term stability” and “long-term health” be achieved.
坚持政策支持和改革创新并举,要实现短期宏观调控同中长期制度构建的有机结合。宏观政策重在逆周期调节、短期“退烧止疼”,稳定经济大盘,但如果缺乏改革举措支撑,政策效应会逐步递减,甚至导致经济发展形成“政策依赖症”。改革创新致力于破除体制机制障碍、长期“强身健体”,增强经济内生动力,但往往伴随调整阵痛,若没有政策托底稳定经济基本盘,改革也难以持续有效推进。必须把短期宏观调控与中长期制度构建有机结合起来。一方面,强化逆周期和跨周期调节,实施更加积极的宏观政策,持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期,并为改革创造有利条件。另一方面,要把改革摆在更加突出位置,以经济体制改革为牵引,紧紧围绕推进中国式现代化进一步全面深化改革,坚决破除各方面体制机制弊端,调动地方和企业积极性,促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。只有政策“输血”与改革“造血”协同发力,才能实现“短期稳定”与“长期健康”的有机统一。
Adhering to the simultaneous advancement of policy support and reform and innovation requires enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macro policies. Coordinating the advancement of policy support and reform and innovation requires paying more attention to resonance and moving in the same direction. It is necessary to strengthen a systems perspective, not only incorporating economic and non-economic policies, stock policies and incremental policies into the consistency assessment of macro policy orientation, but also strengthening the coordination between reform measures and macro policies, avoiding the mutual cancellation of effects between macro policies and reform measures, and ensuring they work in the same direction and form synergy. It is necessary to grasp the timing, intensity, and effectiveness, improve scientific decision-making and evaluation mechanisms, promptly adjust and optimize macro policies and reform measures, ensure that policies do not idle and reforms do not run empty, and provide strong impetus and institutional guarantees for promoting the sustained and stable improvement of the economy and achieving high-quality development.
坚持政策支持和改革创新并举,要增强宏观政策的一致性和有效性。协同推进政策支持和改革创新,要更加注重同频共振、相向而行。要强化系统观念,既要将经济政策和非经济政策、存量政策和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估,也要加强改革举措与宏观政策协同,避免宏观政策和改革举措效应相互抵消,确保同向发力、形成合力。要把握好时度效,健全科学决策和评估机制,及时调整优化宏观政策和改革举措,确保政策不空转、改革不空跑,为推动经济持续稳中向好、实现高质量发展提供强大动力和制度保障。
III. It is necessary to achieve both “letting go and enlivening” and “managing well”
三 必须做到既“放得活”又“管得好”
Handling the relationship between the government and the market is the core issue of economic system reform. The “invisible hand” of the market and the “visible hand” of the government must each fulfill their responsibilities, promoting the formation of an economic order that is both “let go and enlivened” and “managed well,” and continuously enhancing the momentum and vitality of high-quality development.
处理好政府和市场关系是经济体制改革的核心问题。要让市场“无形之手”与政府“有形之手”各负其责,推动形成既“放得活”又“管得好”的经济秩序,持续增强高质量发展动力和活力。
Coordinating the relationship between “letting go and enlivening” and “managing well” is an inevitable requirement for improving economic governance capacity. Adhering to the combination of an effective market and a competent government is an inherent requirement for building a high-level socialist market economy system and a key factor ensuring the continued success of China’s economic development. The market’s decisive role in resource allocation is a general law of the market economy, and market allocation of resources is the most efficient form. The decisive role of the market in resource allocation must be fully utilized to promote the free flow of goods, factors, and resources on a larger scale and continuously reduce institutional transaction costs. Better playing the role of the government is a prominent advantage of the socialist market economy system. Through scientific macroeconomic regulation, effective government governance, and other means, it can effectively compensate for market failures, maintain a fair competition market order, and stabilize and improve expectations in all aspects. Therefore, to accelerate the construction of a high-level socialist market economy system, it is necessary to coordinate the relationship between an effective market and a competent government, fully leverage the advantages of the super-large market, continuously improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance, and form an economic order that is both “let go and enlivened” and “managed well.”
统筹好“放得活”和“管得好”的关系,是提高经济治理能力的必然要求。坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合是构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制的题中应有之义,也是确保我国经济发展不断取得成功的关键因素。市场决定资源配置是市场经济的一般规律,市场配置资源是最有效率的形式,必须充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,促进商品要素资源在更大范围自由流动,持续降低制度性交易成本。更好发挥政府作用,是社会主义市场经济体制的突出优势,通过科学的宏观调控、有效的政府治理等方式,能够有效弥补市场失灵,维护公平竞争的市场秩序,稳定和改善各方面预期。因此,加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制,必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系,充分发挥超大规模市场优势,不断提高宏观经济治理效能,形成既“放得活”又“管得好”的经济秩序。
The purpose of “letting go” is to remove institutional and mechanistic obstacles affecting the development of productive forces and fully stimulate the vitality of various market entities. In recent years, various regions and departments have earnestly implemented the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee, continuously transformed government management and service functions, and strived to create a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized first-class business environment. It needs to be clarified that “letting go” does not mean laissez-faire or letting go without control, but rather ensuring that all forms of ownership economies equally use factors of production according to law, fairly participate in market competition, and receive equal legal protection, promoting complementary advantages and common development of various ownership economies. Deepen the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises, promote the optimization and structural adjustment of the state-owned economy, enhance the core functions of state-owned enterprises, and improve their core competitiveness. Develop and strengthen the private economy, improve supporting laws, regulations, and policies for the Private Economy Promotion Law, continuously promote the development of private investment, and improve the long-term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in the construction of major national projects. It is necessary to deepen the reform of the foreign investment promotion system and mechanism, shorten the negative list for foreign investment access, fully implement national treatment for foreign-funded enterprises, and vigorously support the reinvestment of foreign-funded enterprises within China.
“放”的目的是破除影响生产力发展的体制机制障碍,充分激发各类经营主体活力。近年来,各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央决策部署,持续转变政府管理服务职能,努力打造市场化法治化国际化一流营商环境。需要明确的是,“放”不是放任自流、一放了之,而是要切实保证各种所有制经济依法平等使用生产要素、公平参与市场竞争、同等受到法律保护,促进各种所有制经济优势互补、共同发展。深化国资国企改革,推进国有经济布局优化和结构调整,增强国有企业核心功能、提升核心竞争力。发展壮大民营经济,健全民营经济促进法配套法规政策,持续促进民间投资发展,完善民营企业参与国家重大项目建设长效机制。要深化外商投资促进体制机制改革,缩减外资准入负面清单,全面落实外资企业国民待遇,大力支持外资企业境内再投资。
“Managing” targets behaviors that disrupt market order and disturb market expectations, and its essential requirement is to build a law-based economy. The rule of law is an inherent requirement and important guarantee for building a high-level socialist market economy system. “Managing well” means better playing the role of the government, focusing on correcting market failures and regulating market competition order. Of course, “managing” does not mean tying hands and feet, setting up barriers, or managing to death, but rather placing the rule of law in a more prominent position, building a unified, open, competitive, and orderly market system, and vigorously building a law-based economy and a credit economy. Facing the vigorous development of new industries, new business forms, and new models, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of the rule of law in fields such as the digital economy and artificial intelligence, while stimulating the innovation vitality of market entities and better safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. In response to phenomena such as malicious low-price dumping in some fields, it is necessary to deeply rectify “involution-style” competition [4]4 “Involution-style competition” (内卷式竞争) refers to excessive, zero-sum competition within a limited space that leads to diminishing returns for all participants, often associated with phenomena like price wars and overcapacity., promote high quality at good prices and healthy competition, and create a good market ecosystem. Strengthen production capacity governance in key industries, strengthen standards and quality leadership, and implement the exit of market entities in accordance with laws and regulations. Continuously standardize law enforcement and supervision behaviors involving enterprises, and resolutely prevent illegal cross-regional law enforcement and profit-driven law enforcement.
“管”针对的是破坏市场秩序、扰乱市场预期等行为,本质要求是建设法治经济。法治是构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制的内在要求和重要保障。“管得好”就是要更好发挥政府作用,着力矫正市场失灵,规范市场竞争秩序。当然,“管”不是捆住手脚、设卡管死,而是要把法治摆在更加突出的位置,构建统一、开放、竞争、有序的市场体系,大力建设法治经济、信用经济。面对新产业新业态新模式蓬勃发展,必须加快数字经济、人工智能等领域法治建设,在激发经营主体创新活力的同时,更好维护消费者合法权益。针对一些领域恶意低价倾销等现象,要深入整治“内卷式”竞争,促进优质优价、良性竞争,营造良好市场生态。加强重点行业产能治理,强化标准和质量引领,依法依规实施经营主体退出。持续规范涉企执法和监管行为,坚决防止违规异地执法和趋利性执法。
The key test of whether both “letting go and enlivening” and “managing well” have been achieved is whether it effectively promotes high-quality economic development. It is necessary to fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, focus on removing institutional and mechanistic obstacles in building a unified national market, developing new quality productive forces according to local conditions, and meeting the people’s needs for a better life, handle the relationship between an effective market and a competent government, and promote the transformation of economic development from “whether there is” to “whether it is good.” Facing external uncertainties, it is necessary to further effectively smooth the domestic circulation, deeply advance the construction of a unified national market, and form a joint force to promote high-quality development. Unblock the blockages and pain points in the development of new quality productive forces, strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in innovation, improve the intellectual property protection system in emerging fields, and achieve high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening. Focus on solving the urgent, difficult, and anxious problems of the people, strengthen inclusive, basic, and bottom-line livelihood construction, and continuously enhance the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security.
检验是否做到既“放得活”又“管得好”,关键看是否有效推动经济高质量发展。必须完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念,聚焦破除全国统一大市场建设、因地制宜发展新质生产力、满足人民美好生活需要等方面的体制机制障碍,处理好有效市场和有为政府的关系,推动经济发展从“有没有”转向“好不好”。面对外部的不确定性,要进一步有效畅通国内大循环,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,形成推动高质量发展的合力。打通新质生产力发展的堵点卡点,强化企业创新主体地位,完善新兴领域知识产权保护制度,实现高水平科技自立自强。聚焦解决好人民群众急难愁盼问题,加强普惠性、基础性、兜底性民生建设,不断增强人民群众的获得感、幸福感、安全感。
IV. It is necessary to adhere to the close integration of investment in things and investment in people
四 必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合
The ultimate goal of economic development is to enhance the well-being of the people and achieve the comprehensive development of the individual. Adhering to the close integration of investment in things and investment in people is a comprehensive renewal of investment concepts and a comprehensive optimization of investment priorities. It is of great significance for enhancing development momentum, expanding domestic demand, and promoting the comprehensive development of the individual.
经济发展的最终目的是增进人民福祉、实现人的全面发展。坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合,是投资理念的全面更新、投资重点的全面优化,对于增强发展动能、扩大国内需求、促进人的全面发展意义重大。
Investment is an important engine for economic and social development, and different stages of development have different investment priorities. In the initial stage of advancing modernization, constrained by capital shortages, a country often prioritizes investment in “things,” laying a solid material and technological foundation for economic and social development through substantial investment in raw materials, infrastructure, plant and equipment. As material capital continues to “accumulate,” the overall rate of return on investment in things tends to decline, and the driving force of economic development gradually shifts from mainly incremental expansion to improving quality and efficiency. Entering a new stage of development, one can no longer follow the old path of factor-driven, investment-led growth, but must instead shift to innovation-driven, demand-led growth, by increasing investment in “people,” accelerating human capital accumulation, collaboratively achieving scientific and technological progress and improvement of people’s livelihoods, and building long-term economic development competitiveness.
投资是经济社会发展的重要引擎,不同发展阶段有不同的投资重点。一个国家在推进现代化的起步阶段,受制于资本短缺,往往优先安排对“物”的投资,通过在原材料、基础设施、厂房设备等方面大力度投入,为经济社会发展夯实物质技术基础。随着物质资本的不断“累积”,投资于物的总体回报率将趋于下降,经济发展动能逐渐从增量扩张为主转向提质增效。进入新的发展阶段,就不能再走过去要素驱动、投资拉动的老路,而是要转向创新驱动、需求拉动,通过加大对“人”的投资,加快人力资本积累,协同实现科技进步和民生改善,构筑经济长期发展竞争力。
Investment in things should focus on the real economy and scientific and technological innovation, expanding space and unleashing potential. After years of development, China’s “foundation” of physical assets has become more solid, but per capita capital investment still lags far behind that of developed countries. For example, per capita infrastructure stock is only 20% to 30% of that of developed countries, the structure of capital stock still needs further optimization and upgrading, investment in some important industrial sectors is insufficient, some key core technologies are still controlled by others, and much existing machinery and equipment, infrastructure, old residential communities, and underground pipeline networks need to be updated and upgraded. The new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is also driving a rapid emergence of substantial new investment demand, with strong investment demand in key areas such as new quality productive forces. Overall, compared with the needs of Chinese-path modernization, China still has significant room for investment in things. In conjunction with the proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan, we should plan and implement a number of major projects with strong driving force, promote high-quality urban renewal, maintain a reasonable scale of material capital investment, optimize the investment layout, and expand effective investment in the real economy and scientific and technological innovation.
投资于物要聚焦实体经济和科技创新,拓展空间、释放潜力。经过多年发展,我国实物资产的“家底”更加厚实,但人均资本投资与发达国家相比还有较大差距,比如人均基础设施存量只有发达国家的20%至30%,存量资本结构还有待进一步优化提升,一些重要产业领域投资不足,一些关键核心技术仍受制于人,不少存量机器设备、基础设施、老旧小区、地下管网等有待更新升级,新一轮科技革命和产业变革也推动大量新的投资需求快速涌现,新质生产力等重点领域投资需求旺盛。总的看,跟中国式现代化的需要相比,我国投资于物仍有很大空间。要结合“十五五”规划建议,谋划实施一批牵引性强的重大工程项目,高质量推进城市更新,保持物质资本投资合理规模,优化投资布局,扩大对实体经济和科技创新的有效投资。
Investment in people should focus on improving people’s livelihoods and developing human resources, highlighting priorities and making targeted efforts. Investment in people refers to investment in enhancing the capabilities and developing the potential of the entire population across the whole life cycle, such as childcare, elderly care, health, education, and skills training. As China’s development stage changes, its importance and urgency are becoming increasingly prominent. Compared with investment in material capital, China’s investment in areas related to social welfare and the comprehensive development of people is insufficient, and there is still significant room for improvement compared with developed countries. For example, although the proportion of national fiscal education expenditure in gross domestic product (GDP) has remained above 4% for many consecutive years, it is lower than the average level of 4.5% to 5.5% in developed countries; in 2024, total health expenditure accounted for 6.7% of GDP, significantly lower than that of developed countries such as the United States, Germany, and Japan. In the coming period, it is necessary to effectively transform the investment philosophy, focusing on both “things” and, more importantly, “people,” improving the long-term mechanism for investing in people, expanding effective investment covering the entire population and the whole life cycle, organically combining improving people’s livelihoods with expanding domestic demand, cultivating new economic growth points while enhancing people’s well-being, providing fundamental and strategic support for high-quality development, and gaining strategic initiative in the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation.
投资于人要聚焦民生改善和人力资源开发,突出重点、精准发力。投资于人是指对全人群、全生命周期人的能力提升和潜力开发的投入,比如育幼、养老、健康、教育、技能培训等,随着我国发展阶段的变化,其重要性和紧迫性正在日益凸显。相较于物质资本投入而言,我国对社会民生和人的全面发展相关领域投入不足,与发达国家相比还有较大提升空间。比如,国家财政性教育经费投入占国内生产总值(GDP)比重尽管连续多年保持在4%以上,但低于发达国家4.5%—5.5%的平均水平;2024年卫生总费用占GDP比重为6.7%,明显低于美国、德国、日本等发达国家。今后一个时期,要切实转变投资理念,既要见物、更要见人,健全投资于人的长效机制,扩大覆盖全人群、全生命周期的有效投资,把民生改善和扩大内需有机结合起来,在增进民生福祉中培育新的经济增长点,为高质量发展提供基础性、战略性支撑,在新一轮科技革命和产业变革中赢得战略主动。
Investment in things and investment in people should empower each other and promote each other. Emphasizing investment in people absolutely does not mean that investment in things is unimportant. In fact, the accumulation of material capital and human capital is not mutually opposing or exclusive, but rather complementary and mutually reinforcing. On the one hand, the comprehensive development of people is inseparable from investment in “things.” Building schools, hospitals, and supporting service facilities can improve the level of public services, which is conducive to safeguarding and improving people’s livelihoods and promoting the comprehensive development of people. On the other hand, improving the efficiency of material capital and technological iteration is even more inseparable from investment in “people.” Investment in new types of infrastructure such as 5G networks and computing centers, as well as the development of frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and biomedicine, are deeply bound up with the cultivation of high-quality talent. In our work, we should establish a coordinated development orientation, promoting coordination between the accumulation of material capital and human capital. For example, when formulating industrial policies, we should simultaneously support policies and measures to promote human capital development; establish a collaborative evaluation system for investment in things and investment in people, changing the practice of simply measuring investment effectiveness by the increment of material capital, and preventing the disconnect phenomenon of “seeing only things but not people.” Private investment is not only an important force for investment in things, but also a potential new force for investment in people. We should improve the long-term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major project construction, guiding private investment to expand into new tracks such as high technology and productive services; relax access, strengthen guidance, provide demonstrations, and guide private capital to invest in various fields of human resource development and the comprehensive development of people.
投资于物和投资于人要双向赋能、相互促进。强调投资于人,绝对不是说投资于物不重要了。事实上,物质资本和人力资本的积累不是相互对立、相互排斥的,而是相辅相成、互促共进的。一方面,人的全面发展离不开对“物”的投资。建设学校、医院和配套服务设施等,能够提高公共服务水平,有利于保障和改善民生、推动人的全面发展。另一方面,物质资本的效能提升和技术迭代更离不开对“人”的投资。5G网络、算力中心等新型基础设施建设投入与人工智能、生物医药等前沿领域发展,都与高素质人才培养深度绑定。工作中要确立协同发展导向,促进物质资本和人力资本积累相协调。比如,制定产业政策时要同步配套政策措施促进人力资本开发;建立投资于物和投资于人协同评估体系,改变单纯以物质资本增量衡量投资成效的做法,防止出现“只见物不见人”的脱节现象。民间投资不仅是投资于物的重要力量,也是投资于人的潜在生力军。要完善民营企业参与重大项目建设长效机制,引导民间投资向高新技术、生产性服务业等新赛道拓展;放宽准入、加强引导、提供示范,引导民间资本投向人力资源开发和人的全面发展各领域。
Fifth, we must respond to external challenges by diligently honing our internal skills.
五 必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战
General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized, “No matter how the external environment changes, we must concentrate our efforts on handling our own affairs well.” [5]5 Quotation from Xi Jinping’s remarks at the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2021, emphasizing self-reliance amid external uncertainties. Facing the accelerated evolution of changes unseen in a century, we must maintain strategic focus, forge an indestructible body, and use the certainty of high-quality development to respond to the drastic uncertainty of the rapidly changing external environment.
习近平总书记强调,“无论外部环境怎么变化,都要集中力量办好自己的事。”面对世界百年未有之大变局加速演进,我们要保持战略定力,炼就金刚不坏之身,以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。
The greatest certainty of the international environment is that it is full of uncertain challenges. Today’s world is chaotic, intertwined, and increasingly turbulent. China’s development environment is undergoing profound and complex changes, with increasing uncertain and unpredictable factors. Geopolitical conflicts are frequent and prone to occurring, with regional conflicts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, and other areas spilling over and prolonging, impacting the security of international transport routes and commodity prices. Unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, and the international economic and trade order faces severe challenges. According to statistics from the World Trade Organization, in 2025, newly established tariff and other trade barriers by countries around the world affected 2.7 trillion US dollars in goods trade, more than three times that of 2024, with trade barriers and frictions targeting China increasing. A few Western countries cling to Cold War thinking and zero-sum game concepts, viewing China as their main strategic competitor, implementing comprehensive containment, suppression, and crackdowns, making major power games more complex and intense.
国际环境最大的确定性就是充满不确定性挑战。当今世界变乱交织、动荡加剧,我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化,不确定、难预料因素增多。地缘冲突易发多发,东欧、中东、拉美等地区性冲突延宕外溢,冲击国际运输通道安全和大宗商品价格。单边主义、保护主义抬头,国际经贸秩序遇到严峻挑战。据世界贸易组织统计,2025年世界各国新设立的关税等贸易壁垒影响2.7万亿美元货物贸易额,是2024年的3倍多,其中针对我国的贸易壁垒和摩擦增多。少数西方国家固守冷战思维和零和博弈观念,把我国视为主要战略竞争对手,实施全方位围堵遏制打压,大国博弈更加复杂激烈。
History proves that we have strong advantages in responding to external challenges. After the founding of New China, especially since reform and opening up, China has encountered many external risk impacts, but has ultimately been able to turn danger into safety, relying on maintaining strategic focus and basing the foothold of development domestically. Facing the two major impacts of the Asian financial crisis and the international financial crisis, we implemented a strategy of expanding domestic demand, promoting the transformation of economic development towards domestic demand-led growth, with the proportion of exports in GDP falling from about 34% in 2007 to the current level of around 19%. Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, we have adhered to the comprehensive leadership of the Party, upheld and improved the basic socialist economic system, with the economic aggregate continuously reaching new levels, building the world’s most complete and largest industrial system, and continuously mitigating risks in key areas. Since the United States launched a trade war in 2018, the Party Central Committee has calmly responded and systematically implemented policies. China’s economy has always maintained development and progress, demonstrating resilience that “grows stronger under pressure.” In recent years, we have opened our doors wider and wider, with strong resilience in goods exports, an accelerated formation of a diversified foreign trade pattern, a decline in export dependence on a single country, and steady expansion of institutional opening up. Scientific and technological innovation capabilities have grown stronger under pressure, with suppression and containment forcing accelerated breakthroughs in key areas, overcoming a number of major key core technologies, and continuously improving the level of independent control of industrial chains. The unique position of a super seller of manufactured goods has become increasingly prominent, with many investment goods and intermediate goods having strong international competitiveness and being difficult to find alternative sources in the short term, providing strategic support for gaining the initiative in international economic and trade struggles. The trend and momentum are on our side. As long as we persist in focusing on national interests and long-term goals, unswervingly handle our own affairs well, and continuously strengthen our own strength, there is no external challenge that can delay or even interrupt the great historical process of Chinese-path modernization.
历史证明我们具有应对外部挑战的强大优势。新中国成立后特别是改革开放以来,我国遭遇过很多外部风险冲击,最终都能化险为夷,靠的就是保持战略定力,把发展立足点放在国内。面对亚洲金融危机和国际金融危机两次大冲击,我们实施扩大内需战略,推动经济发展向内需主导转变,出口占GDP比重从2007年的约34%下降至当前的19%左右。党的十八大以来,我们坚持党的全面领导,坚持和完善社会主义基本经济制度,经济总量连续迈上新台阶,建成全球最完整、规模最大的工业体系,重点领域风险持续化解。2018年美国发动贸易战以来,党中央沉着应对、系统施策,中国经济始终保持发展和进步,展现了“越压越强”的韧性。这几年来,我们开放的大门越开越大,货物出口保持强大韧性,外贸多元化格局加速形成,对单一国家的出口依存度下降,制度型开放稳步扩大。科技创新能力越打越强,打压遏制倒逼重点领域加快攻关,攻克了一批重大关键核心技术,产业链自主可控水平不断提升。制造品超级卖家独特地位越发凸显,不少投资品和中间品国际竞争力很强、短期内难以找到替代来源,为赢得国际经贸斗争主动提供战略支撑。时与势在我们一边,只要我们坚持聚焦国家利益和长远目标,坚定不移把自己的事情办好,不断壮大自身实力,就没有任何外部挑战能够迟滞甚至中断中国式现代化的伟大历史进程。
Enhance the strong resilience to respond to external challenges. Changes contain opportunities, and challenges inspire fighting spirit. In the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, we must, in accordance with the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference, [6]6 The Central Economic Work Conference is an annual high-level meeting convened by the CPC Central Committee to set economic policy priorities for the following year. carry forward the historical initiative, [7]7 “Historical initiative” (历史主动精神) refers to the proactive, conscious role of the Party in shaping historical development, a concept emphasizing agency over passive adaptation. make good use of the advantages of a large country’s deep and broad economy, and promote a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan. Strengthen, optimize, and expand the real economy, and build a modern industrial system. We must consolidate and enhance the advantageous position of traditional industries, address both symptoms and root causes to resolve structural contradictions, and accelerate digital and intelligent transformation. Strengthen classified planning and guidance for emerging industries and future industries, and implement large-scale application demonstration actions for new technologies, new products, and new scenarios. In promoting the high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, tap into new economic growth points, improve policies on access, regulation, and opening up, and adopt classified measures to promote the development of producer services and consumer services. Comprehensively enhance independent innovation capabilities, and accelerate high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening. We must improve the new system of mobilizing resources nationwide, [8]8 The “new system of mobilizing resources nationwide” (新型举国体制) is a state-led mechanism for concentrating resources on strategic technological breakthroughs, updated from the earlier planned-economy model. take extraordinary measures, and reverse as soon as possible the situation where key core technologies are controlled by others. Increase long-term stable support for basic research, and strengthen the orientation toward original innovation in scientific research and technological development. Strengthen the principal position of enterprises in innovation, and promote the concentration of innovation resources in enterprises. Accelerate the building of a national strategic talent force, and smooth the channels for talent exchange among universities, research institutes, and enterprises. Build a strong domestic market, and smooth the domestic and international dual circulations. In accordance with the requirements of “five unifications and one openness,” [9]9 “Five unifications and one openness” (五统一、一开放) refers to the goal of a unified national market: unified rules, standards, market access, supervision, and factor markets, plus openness to external competition. resolutely remove the blockages and obstacles hindering the construction of a unified national market, and improve supporting systems such as statistics, fiscal and taxation, and performance assessment. Adhere to the close integration of investment in things and investment in people, and strengthen human resource development and investment in the comprehensive development of people. Vigorously promote increasing residents’ income and reducing their burdens, and expand the supply of high-quality consumer goods and services. Expand the diversification of export markets, and promote the balanced development of imports and exports. Proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, actively expand independent opening up, and shape new advantages in attracting foreign investment.
提升应对外部挑战的强大韧性。变局蕴含机遇,挑战激发斗志。“十五五”开局之年,我们要按照中央经济工作会议要求,发扬历史主动精神,利用好大国经济纵深广阔的优势,推动“十五五”实现良好开局。做强做优做大实体经济,建设现代化产业体系。要巩固提升传统产业优势地位,标本兼治化解结构性矛盾,加快数智化转型。加强新兴产业和未来产业分类规划引导,实施新技术新产品新场景大规模应用示范行动。在促进服务业优质高效发展中挖掘新的经济增长点,完善准入、监管、开放等政策,分类施策促进生产性服务业和生活性服务业发展。全面增强自主创新能力,加快高水平科技自立自强。要完善新型举国体制,采取超常规措施,尽快扭转关键核心技术受制于人的局面。加大基础研究长期稳定支持,强化科学研究、技术开发原始创新导向。强化企业创新主体地位,推动创新资源向企业集聚。加快建设国家战略人才力量,畅通高校、科研院所、企业人才交流通道。建设强大国内市场,畅通国内国际双循环。按照“五统一、一开放”要求,坚决破除阻碍全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点,完善统计、财税、考核等配套制度。坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合,加强人力资源开发和人的全面发展投资。大力促进居民增收减负,扩大优质消费品和服务供给。拓展出口市场多元化,推动进出口平衡发展。主动对接国际高标准经贸规则,积极扩大自主开放,塑造吸引外资新优势。
The Chinese people do not provoke trouble but are not afraid of it. We are fully confident, capable, and assured in responding to external challenges, steadfastly handling our own affairs well, achieving a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan, and continuously advancing the great cause of building a strong country and national rejuvenation through Chinese-path modernization.
中国人民不惹事也不怕事。我们完全有底气有能力有信心应对外部挑战,踏踏实实办好自己的事,实现“十五五”良好开局,不断以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业。
Online editor: Huihui
网络编辑:慧慧
Notes
- The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC, held in November 2013, adopted the “Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms,” which outlined a comprehensive reform blueprint covering 15 areas and 336 specific measures. ↩
- “Three-phase superposition” refers to the period when China’s economic growth rate is shifting gear, the economic structure is undergoing painful adjustment, and previous stimulus policies are being digested. ↩
- The “three critical battles” refer to the battles against major risks, against poverty, and against pollution, launched around 2018. ↩
- “Involution-style competition” (内卷式竞争) refers to excessive, zero-sum competition within a limited space that leads to diminishing returns for all participants, often associated with phenomena like price wars and overcapacity. ↩
- Quotation from Xi Jinping’s remarks at the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2021, emphasizing self-reliance amid external uncertainties. ↩
- The Central Economic Work Conference is an annual high-level meeting convened by the CPC Central Committee to set economic policy priorities for the following year. ↩
- “Historical initiative” (历史主动精神) refers to the proactive, conscious role of the Party in shaping historical development, a concept emphasizing agency over passive adaptation. ↩
- The “new system of mobilizing resources nationwide” (新型举国体制) is a state-led mechanism for concentrating resources on strategic technological breakthroughs, updated from the earlier planned-economy model. ↩
- “Five unifications and one openness” (五统一、一开放) refers to the goal of a unified national market: unified rules, standards, market access, supervision, and factor markets, plus openness to external competition. ↩