Enhancing the Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Governance

The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference pointed out: “In terms of policy orientation for next year’s economic work, we must adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and increasing efficiency, leverage the combined effect of existing and incremental policies, intensify counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance.” Grasping the evolutionary logic from “macroeconomic regulation” to “macroeconomic governance,” reviewing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and analyzing the measures to improve macroeconomic governance during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, as well as the macro-policy orientation for 2026, are of great significance for understanding and grasping effective ways to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance under the new circumstances and for continuing to do a good job in economic work.

2025年中央经济工作会议指出：“明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。”把握从“宏观调控”到“宏观经济治理”的演进逻辑，梳理“十四五”时期宏观经济治理成效，分析“十五五”时期完善宏观经济治理的举措和2026年宏观政策取向，对于认识和把握新形势下提升宏观经济治理效能的有效途径，继续做好经济工作，具有重要意义。

Grasping the Logic from “Macroeconomic Regulation” to “Macroeconomic Governance”

把握从“宏观调控”到“宏观经济治理”的逻辑

Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, China’s economic development has entered a new normal, with the economic operation showing multiple trend-based changes. For example, from the perspective of aggregate supply-demand balance, for a long period in the past, demand was overheated and supply was insufficient. However, after rapid industrialization, China has become the world’s largest manufacturing country, with manufacturing production capacity expanding rapidly. Moreover, with the acceleration of population aging and the deep adjustment of the real estate market, the constraint of demand on economic growth has continuously strengthened, and the supply-demand relationship has shown a situation of insufficient demand, strong supply and weak demand. Another example: from the perspective of investment and consumption, in the past, investment was the main driver of economic growth. When facing external shocks and downward pressure, economic growth was often driven by expanding investment. However, as the space for infrastructure investment narrows and accumulated local government debt pressure increases, the growth rate of investment has significantly slowed, and the driving force of investment-led economic growth has weakened. Another example: from the perspective of the transformation of old and new growth drivers, the new round of technological revolution centered on artificial intelligence, by reshaping production methods and resource allocation, is profoundly affecting macroeconomic operations and accelerating the differentiation of economic structures. High-tech industries and strategic emerging industries maintain relatively rapid growth. At the same time, from the perspective of the external environment, geopolitical conflicts, the restructuring of global industrial and supply chains, etc., have significantly increased the instability and uncertainty of the external environment.

党的十八大以来，中国经济发展进入新常态，经济运行出现多方面趋势性变化。比如，从供需总量平衡看，过去很长一个时期是需求过热，供给不足，但在经过工业化高速发展后，中国已成为世界第一制造大国，制造业产能迅速扩张，并且随着人口老龄化加速，房地产市场深度调整，需求对经济增长的约束持续强化，供需关系呈现需求不足、供强需弱的态势。又如，从投资和消费看，过去投资是经济增长的主要驱动力，在面临外部冲击和下行压力时，往往通过扩大投资拉动经济增长。但随着基础设施投资空间收窄、积累的地方债务压力增大，投资增速明显放缓，投资驱动经济增长的动力减弱。再如，从新旧动能转换看，以人工智能为核心的新一轮科技革命，通过重塑生产方式和资源配置，正在深刻影响宏观经济运行，并推动经济结构加速分化，高新技术产业和战略性新兴产业保持较快增长。与此同时，从外部环境看，地缘政治冲突、全球产供链重构等，使得外部环境的不稳定不确定性明显上升。

The above situation indicates that China’s macroeconomic operation has undergone profound changes, presenting a complex situation where cyclical, structural, and institutional factors are superimposed, and internal balance and external shocks are intertwined. Economic development is at a critical stage of growth driver transformation and development model upgrading, further increasing the complexity and urgency of macroeconomic regulation. The transformation from traditional “macroeconomic regulation” to “macroeconomic governance” is an inevitable choice to adapt to the stage-based changes in economic development and to cope with complex and severe challenges. It is also a major innovation in our Party’s macroeconomic management concepts and practices.

上述情况表明，我国宏观经济运行发生深刻变化，呈现周期性、结构性、体制性因素叠加，内部平衡与外部冲击相互交织的复杂局面，经济发展处于增长动力转换与发展模式升级的关键阶段，宏观调控的复杂性与紧迫性进一步增加。从传统的“宏观调控”向“宏观经济治理”转变，是适应经济发展阶段性变化、应对复杂严峻挑战的必然选择，也是我们党宏观经济管理理念与实践的重大创新。

The shift from “macroeconomic regulation” to “macroeconomic governance” has new connotations and practical characteristics. From the perspective of governance subjects, in traditional macroeconomic regulation, the government and the market are in a subject-object relationship; macroeconomic governance, on the other hand, emphasizes that both the government and the market are means of resource allocation, requiring the coordination of the relationship between an effective market and a competent government, allowing the “invisible hand” and the “visible hand” to work in synergy. From the perspective of governance objectives, in traditional macroeconomic regulation, policy objectives are relatively singular, mainly involving counter-cyclical adjustments to smooth out economic cycle fluctuations, achieving economic growth, promoting employment, and controlling inflation; the policy objectives of macroeconomic governance are more diversified, including aggregate balance, structural optimization, quality improvement, and risk prevention, emphasizing the coordination of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. It is necessary not only to smooth economic fluctuations through counter-cyclical adjustments but also to pay attention to cross-cyclical balance, preventing excessive policies from leading to diminishing effects and long-term side effects, preventing and defusing risks, and promoting high-quality economic development. From the perspective of governance focus, traditional macroeconomic regulation mainly emphasizes demand management, stabilizing aggregate demand through fiscal and monetary policies; macroeconomic governance emphasizes that supply and demand are two sides of the same coin in economic operation, mutually conditional and interdependent, requiring the coordination of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply to achieve a higher level of dynamic supply-demand balance. From the perspective of governance methods, traditional macroeconomic regulation mainly relies on policy implementation by macroeconomic regulatory departments; macroeconomic governance emphasizes the coordination and cooperation of governance subjects, leveraging the strategic guiding role of national development plans, strengthening the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, utilizing the roles of industrial, price, employment, consumption, investment, trade, regional, environmental protection, and regulatory policies, conducting consistency assessments of macro-policy orientations, improving expectation management mechanisms, and forming policy synergy. From the perspective of governance vision, traditional macroeconomic regulation mainly considers domestic economic operations; macroeconomic governance emphasizes coordinating internal and external relations, while promoting the domestic economic cycle, smoothing and enhancing the international cycle, maintaining a basic balance in the current account and the overall balance of payments, and promoting internal and external economic equilibrium.

从“宏观调控”转向“宏观经济治理”，具有新的内涵和实践特征。从治理主体看，传统的宏观调控，政府和市场是主体与客体的关系；宏观经济治理则强调政府和市场都是资源配置的手段，要求统筹有效市场和有为政府的关系，让“无形之手”和“有形之手”协同发力。从治理目标看，传统的宏观调控，政策目标相对单一，主要是逆周期调节熨平经济周期波动，实现经济增长、促进就业和控制通胀；宏观经济治理的政策目标则更加多元，包括总量平衡、结构优化、质量提升和风险防范，强调统筹逆周期和跨周期调节，既要通过逆周期调节平滑经济波动，又要关注跨周期平衡，防止政策过度导致效果衰减和长期副作用，防范化解风险，推动经济高质量发展。从治理重点看，传统的宏观调控主要强调需求管理，通过财政政策和货币政策平抑总需求；宏观经济治理则强调供给和需求是经济运行的一体两面，互为条件、相互依存，要求统筹扩大内需和优化供给，实现更高水平的供需动态平衡。从治理方式看，传统的宏观调控主要是依托宏观调控部门的政策发力；宏观经济治理则强调治理主体协同配合，发挥国家发展规划的战略导向作用，加强财政、货币政策协同，发挥产业、价格、就业、消费、投资、贸易、区域、环保、监管等政策作用，加强宏观政策取向一致性评估，健全预期管理机制，形成政策合力。从治理视野看，传统的宏观调控主要考虑国内的经济运行；宏观经济治理则强调统筹内部与外部关系，在促进国内经济大循环的同时，畅通和提升国际循环，保持经常项目和整个国际收支基本平衡，促进经济内外均衡。

Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Governance during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

“十四五”时期宏观经济治理取得的成效

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, facing the complex and volatile international environment and the arduous tasks of domestic economic transformation, China adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, implemented a series of proactive and effective macro policies, continuously improved the targeting and effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation, and accelerated the construction of a macroeconomic governance system adapted to the stage-based changes in economic development.

“十四五”时期，面对国际环境错综复杂变化和国内经济转型的艰巨任务，我国坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施一系列积极有为的宏观政策，不断提高宏观调控的针对性和有效性，加快构建适应经济发展阶段性变化的宏观经济治理体系。

Fiscal policy, as an important means of macroeconomic regulation, played a dual role in expanding aggregate demand and adjusting structure, smoothing out economic cyclical fluctuations, and promoting aggregate economic balance and structural optimization. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, proactive fiscal policies were effectively implemented, expanding expenditure scale, strengthening financial guarantees for key areas, and effectively responding to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the challenges brought about by changes in the international environment. The structure of fiscal expenditure was optimized, supporting the establishment of the world’s largest education system, social security system, and medical and health system. A more proactive fiscal policy was implemented, effectively supporting the expansion of domestic demand and promoting the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy.

财政政策作为宏观调控的重要手段，发挥扩大总需求和调结构的双重作用，熨平经济周期性波动，促进经济总量平衡和结构优化。“十四五”时期，有力实施积极财政政策，扩大支出规模，加强重点领域财力保障，有效应对新冠疫情冲击和国际环境变化带来的冲击挑战。优化财政支出结构，支持建成世界上规模最大的教育体系、社会保障体系、医疗卫生体系。实施更加积极的财政政策，有效支持扩大国内需求，推动经济持续回升向好。

Monetary policy also played an important role in macroeconomic regulation. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, monetary policy was adjusted and optimized several times, maintaining the growth of aggregate social financing and money supply in line with the expected targets for economic growth and the general price level, promoting a stable and declining trend in the comprehensive social financing cost. In September 2024, the central government promoted the introduction of a package of incremental policies, including a series of relatively strong monetary policy measures, effectively promoting the stabilization and recovery of the economy. Since 2025, a moderately loose monetary policy has been implemented. In May 2025, a new package of monetary policy measures was introduced, including further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, increasing structural monetary policy support for technological innovation, boosting consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade, and optimizing two monetary policy tools supporting the capital market, etc., effectively maintaining ample liquidity in the financial market, pushing the social financing cost to a historically low level, and playing a positive role in boosting market confidence, improving social expectations, responding to external shocks, and promoting the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy.

货币政策在宏观调控中同样发挥重要作用。“十四五”时期数次调整优化货币政策，保持社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配，促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降。2024年9月中央推动出台一揽子增量政策，其中包含一系列较大力度的货币政策措施，有效推动经济企稳回升。2025年以来，实施适度宽松的货币政策，2025年5月推出新的一揽子货币政策措施，包括进一步降准、降息，加大结构性货币政策支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸力度，优化两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具等，有效保持了金融市场流动性充裕，推动社会融资成本处于历史低位，为提振市场信心、改善社会预期、应对外部冲击、推动经济持续回升向好发挥积极作用。

On the basis of implementing more proactive and effective macro policies, the improvement of the macroeconomic governance system was accelerated. Greater emphasis was placed on strengthening policy coordination and cooperation, strengthening the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, while also strengthening the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies with industrial, price, employment, consumption, investment, trade, and regional policies. Consistency assessments of macro-policy orientations were conducted to enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macro-policy orientations. Greater emphasis was placed on expectation management, improving expectation management mechanisms, and enhancing the ability to guide expectations and manage risks in complex situations. Looking back at the 14th Five-Year Plan period, by accelerating the improvement of the macroeconomic governance system, China promoted the achievement of multiple goals of stable aggregate economic growth, continuous structural optimization, and effective quality improvement. This is mainly reflected in the following: First, the economic scale reached a new level. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the gross domestic product successively crossed three major thresholds of 110 trillion yuan, 120 trillion yuan, and 130 trillion yuan. It is expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan in 2025, consolidating and enhancing China’s status as the world’s second-largest economy. Second, structural adjustment made new progress, with continuous optimization of the economic structure and accelerated pace of industrial upgrading. Third, development quality achieved new improvements, with a significant enhancement in scientific and technological innovation capabilities and a marked rise in comprehensive scientific and technological strength.

在实施更加积极有为的宏观政策基础上，加快完善宏观经济治理体系。更加注重加强政策协调配合，加强财政和货币政策协调配合，同时加强财政、货币政策与产业、价格、就业、消费、投资、贸易、区域等政策的协调。开展宏观政策取向一致性评估，增强宏观政策取向一致性和有效性。更加注重预期管理，健全预期管理机制，增强在复杂局面下引导预期、管控风险的能力。回顾“十四五”，我国通过加快完善宏观经济治理体系，推动实现了经济总量稳定增长、结构持续优化、质量有效提升的多重目标，主要表现在：首先，经济规模迈上新台阶。“十四五”时期，国内生产总值连续跨越110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元三个大台阶，预计2025年可达140万亿元左右，我国作为世界第二大经济体的地位巩固提升。其次，结构调整取得新进展，经济结构持续优化，产业升级步伐加快。第三，发展质量实现新提升，科技创新能力大幅提升，综合科技实力明显上升。

China’s economic development has not only changed itself but also influenced the world. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s contribution rate to world economic growth remained at around 30%, making it the most stable and reliable engine of world economic growth. As a super-large economy, its development spillover effects are significant. In 2024, China’s total trade in goods reached 43.8 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world for eight consecutive years. The export of affordable and high-quality goods has created favorable conditions for many countries to maintain price stability and improve national welfare. China’s exported wind and solar photovoltaic products cumulatively reduced carbon emissions for other countries by approximately 4.1 billion tons during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, making a major contribution to global low-carbon transformation.

中国经济发展不仅改变了自己，也影响了世界。“十四五”时期，我国对世界经济增长的贡献率保持在30%左右，成为世界经济增长最稳定、最可靠的动力源。作为超大规模经济体，发展外溢效应显著。2024年我国货物贸易总额达到43.8万亿元，连续8年稳居全球第一，价廉物美商品的出口，为许多国家保持物价稳定、提高国民福利创造了有利条件。我国出口的风电光伏产品，“十四五”期间累计为其他国家减少碳排放约41亿吨，为全球低碳转型作出重大贡献。

Key Directions for Enhancing the Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Governance during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

“十五五”时期提升宏观经济治理效能的重点方向

The “Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development” (hereinafter referred to as the “Proposal”), adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [1]1 The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in October 2025, focusing on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan., makes an overall plan for enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, proposing to “improve the macroeconomic governance system” and “enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance.” Compared with the 14th Five-Year Plan, the 15th Five-Year Plan places greater emphasis on “strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments and implementing more proactive macro policies,” “enhancing the consistency of macro policy orientations,” “improving the expectation management mechanism,” and “promoting the formation of more economic development models led by domestic demand, driven by consumption, and based on endogenous growth,” pointing the way for enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance.

党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》），对“十五五”时期提升宏观经济治理效能作出总体部署，提出“完善宏观经济治理体系”“提升宏观经济治理效能”。相较于“十四五”，“十五五”更加强调“强化逆周期和跨周期调节，实施更加积极的宏观政策”“增强宏观政策取向一致性”“健全预期管理机制”“促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式”，为提升宏观经济治理效能指明方向。

Strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Increase the intensity of proactive fiscal policy. Optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, place greater emphasis on “investing in people,” reasonably raise the proportion of public service expenditure in fiscal expenditure, increase the proportion of government investment in people’s livelihoods, and enhance residents’ consumption capacity by increasing expenditure on public services and people’s livelihood guarantees such as education, childcare, elderly care, and medical care. Make promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices an important consideration for monetary policy, guiding financial institutions to increase support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises. Structural problems faced by economic operations cannot be resolved in the short term; it is necessary to strengthen cross-cyclical adjustments and promote structural reforms. In the coming period, we must accelerate the construction of a unified national market, deeply rectify “involution-style” competition [2]2 “Involution-style competition” refers to excessive, zero-sum competition that leads to diminishing returns for all participants, often used in Chinese policy discourse to criticize inefficient market behaviors., and improve the orderly exit mechanism for backward and excess production capacity.

强化逆周期和跨周期调节。加大积极财政政策力度。优化财政支出结构，更加注重“投资于人”，合理提高公共服务支出占财政支出的比重，提高民生类政府投资比重，通过增加教育、育幼、养老、医疗等公共服务和民生保障支出，提高居民消费能力。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策重要考量，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。经济运行面临的结构性问题，并非短期内可以解决，需要强化跨周期调节，推进结构性改革，今后一个时期要加快全国统一大市场建设，深入整治“内卷式”竞争，完善落后过剩产能有序退出机制。

Strengthen coordination and cooperation among macro policies. The macroeconomic governance system with Chinese characteristics must not only leverage the role of fiscal and monetary policies but also strengthen the strategic guiding role of national development plans, enhance coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, and give full play to the role of policies on industry, prices, employment, consumption, investment, trade, regional development, environmental protection, and regulation, to avoid the mutual offsetting of policy effects and “composition fallacy” [3]3 “Composition fallacy” refers to the error of assuming that what is good for one part is good for the whole, used here to warn against uncoordinated policy actions., form policy synergy, and improve the effectiveness of macro governance.

加强宏观政策协同配合。中国特色的宏观经济治理体系，既要发挥财政政策、货币政策的作用，同时又要强化国家发展规划战略导向作用，加强财政、货币政策协同，发挥好产业、价格、就业、消费、投资、贸易、区域、环保、监管等政策作用，避免政策效应相互抵消和“合成谬误”，形成政策合力，提高宏观治理效能。

Improve the expectation management mechanism. Pay greater attention to market expectation management, strengthen communication and exchanges with market entities, enhance policy transparency, provide authoritative interpretations when major policies are introduced or major unexpected events occur, enable market entities to better understand policy intentions, avoid market fluctuations due to misjudgment, and enhance the ability to guide expectations and manage risks under complex circumstances.

健全预期管理机制。更加注重市场预期管理，加强与市场主体的沟通交流，提高政策透明度，重大政策出台或发生重大突发事件时做好权威解读工作，让市场主体更好理解政策意图，避免市场因误判出现波动，增强在复杂局面下引导预期、管控风险的能力。

Promote the formation of more economic development models led by domestic demand, driven by consumption, and based on endogenous growth. Expanding domestic demand cannot form a long-term mechanism solely through short-term policy adjustments; it is necessary to combine short-term policies with medium- and long-term institutional construction to form a long-term mechanism for expanding domestic demand and effective institutional arrangements for promoting consumption. The “Proposal” clearly states, “promote the formation of more economic development models led by domestic demand, driven by consumption, and based on endogenous growth.” This requires that the deep-seated problems of insufficient domestic demand and weak consumption must be addressed from the perspective of the economic development model. To transform the economic development model, we must make great efforts to deepen reforms. First, deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation system. China levies consumption tax at the production link and production location, making it difficult for consumption-location governments to benefit from it; this is one of the institutional factors weakening their internal motivation to promote consumption. We must accelerate the implementation of the “promote the post-shift of the consumption tax collection link and steadily delegate it to local governments” determined by the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [4]4 The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, held in July 2024, focused on deepening reform comprehensively., incentivize local governments to promote the expansion of consumption, and change the behavior pattern of local governments of “valuing investment over consumption.” Second, accelerate the urbanization of agricultural transfer population. Accelerate the implementation of the system of providing basic public services based on household registration at the place of habitual residence, encourage local governments at the place of habitual residence to solve basic public service issues such as social insurance, housing security, and education for children accompanying agricultural transfer populations, establish effective incentive mechanisms to increase the enthusiasm of local governments at the place of habitual residence to provide basic public services, and unleash the huge consumption potential of the agricultural transfer population. Third, relax access restrictions in the service industry. China’s commodity consumption is relatively saturated, while the potential for service consumption is huge. We must innovate diversified consumption scenarios and expand service consumption. Access restrictions should be relaxed, service prices rationalized, more social capital attracted to enter, and high-quality products and services developed in more sub-sectors to meet the diverse and differentiated service consumption needs of middle- and high-income groups.

促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。扩大国内需求，仅依靠短期政策调节难以形成长效机制，必须把短期政策和中长期制度建设结合起来，形成扩大内需长效机制和促进消费的有效制度安排。《建议》明确提出，“促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式”。这就要求必须从经济发展模式上解决内需不足、消费偏弱的深层次问题，而要转变经济发展模式，必须下大力气深化改革。一是深化财税体制改革。我国在生产环节和生产地征收消费税，消费地政府难以从中受益，这是削弱其促进消费内在动力的制度性因素之一。要加快落实党的二十届三中全会确定的“推进消费税征收环节后移并稳步下划地方”，激励地方政府推动扩大消费的积极性，改变地方政府“重投资、轻消费”的行为模式。二是加快农业转移人口市民化。加快落实由常住地登记户口提供基本公共服务制度，鼓励常住地政府解决农业转移人口社会保险、住房保障、随迁子女教育等基本公共服务问题，建立有效激励机制提高常住地政府提供基本公共服务的积极性，释放农业转移人口的巨大消费潜能。三是放宽服务业准入限制。我国商品消费相对饱和，服务消费潜力巨大。要创新多元化消费场景，扩大服务消费。应放宽准入限制、理顺服务价格，吸引更多社会资本进入，在更多细分领域开发优质产品和服务，满足中高收入群体多样性差异化的服务消费需求。

Implementing More Proactive and Effective Macro Policies in 2026

2026年实施更加积极有为的宏观政策

2026 is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference [5]5 The Central Economic Work Conference is an annual high-level meeting held in December to set economic policy priorities for the following year. put forward requirements such as “adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability,” “implement more proactive and effective macro policies,” and “strive to stabilize employment, stabilize enterprises, stabilize the market, and stabilize expectations, promoting the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of the economy,” to ensure a good start for the 15th Five-Year Plan.

2026年是“十五五”开局之年。2025年中央经济工作会议提出了“坚持稳中求进工作总基调”“实施更加积极有为的宏观政策”“着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长”等要求，确保实现“十五五”良好开局。

Currently, the difficulties and challenges facing China’s economic operations are mainly the deepening impact of changes in the external environment, the prominent contradiction between strong supply and weak demand domestically, and many hidden risks in key areas. We must face the problems and challenges directly, recognizing that these are problems in development and transformation that cannot be bypassed or avoided and can be solved through effort. In response to multiple pressures such as insufficient domestic demand facing economic operations, we must maintain the necessary scale and intensity of macro policies, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, leverage the integrated effect of existing policies and incremental policies, and promote the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy.

当前，我国经济运行面临的困难和挑战，主要是外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多。我们要直面问题、正视挑战，看到这些问题是发展中、转型中的问题，绕不开、躲不过，经过努力是可以解决的。针对经济运行面临的内需不足等多重压力，要保持宏观政策的必要规模和力度，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，推动经济持续回升向好。

Continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy. In terms of policy intensity, maintain the necessary fiscal deficit, total debt scale, and total expenditure. While focusing on the present and making full and good use of fiscal policy space, we must also leave room to cope with future risks to ensure fiscal sustainability. In terms of policy quality and effectiveness, strive to improve precision and effectiveness. Optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, strengthen financial guarantees for major national strategies, channel more financial resources to “invest in people,” and place greater emphasis on benefiting people’s livelihoods, expanding domestic demand, and increasing development momentum.

继续实施更加积极的财政政策。在政策力度上，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，既着眼当前，用好用足财政政策空间，也要为应对未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持续。在政策质效上，着力提高精准性和有效性。优化财政支出结构，强化国家重大战略财力保障，推动更多资金资源“投资于人”，更加注重惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。

Continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Make promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices an important consideration for monetary policy. Take the price target as the “anchor” of monetary policy, closely monitor changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the GDP deflator, and maintain sufficient intensity of monetary policy. In policy implementation, flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, maintain ample liquidity, ensure that the growth of aggregate social financing and money supply matches the expected targets for economic growth and the general price level, promote the low-level operation of comprehensive social financing costs, and create a favorable monetary and financial environment for the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy. Smooth the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, guiding funds to flow to key areas such as expanding domestic demand, promoting technological innovation, and supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises.

继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。把物价目标作为货币政策的“锚”，紧盯居民消费价格指数(CPI)和GDP平减指数的变化，保持货币政策足够力度。在政策执行上，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行，为经济持续回升向好营造良好货币金融环境。疏通货币政策传导机制，引导资金流向扩大内需、促进科技创新、支持中小微企业发展等重点领域。

(Author: Wang Yiming, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges)

（作者：王一鸣，系中国国际经济交流中心副理事长）

Online Editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧