Accurately Grasping the Characteristics of China’s Economic Growth Drivers during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

The Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (hereinafter referred to as the “Proposal”), reviewed and approved at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, states: “Significant progress will be made in high-quality development. Economic growth will remain within a reasonable range, total factor productivity will steadily improve, the household consumption rate will rise markedly, the role of domestic demand as the main driver of economic growth will continue to strengthen, and the potential for economic growth will be fully released.” This is one of the main objectives for economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. To achieve both an effective qualitative improvement and a reasonable quantitative expansion of the economy, during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s economic growth must, on the supply side, rely more heavily on the contribution of total factor productivity, and on the demand side, continuously strengthen the role of domestic demand as the main driver of economic growth, thereby realizing a positive interaction between the supply side and the demand side.

党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）提出，“高质量发展取得显著成效。经济增长保持在合理区间，全要素生产率稳步提升，居民消费率明显提高，内需拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增强，经济增长潜力得到充分释放”，这是“十五五”时期经济社会发展的主要目标之一。为了实现经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长，“十五五”时期，我国经济增长在供给侧要更多依赖于全要素生产率的贡献，在需求侧要持续增强内需拉动经济增长主动力作用，实现供给侧与需求侧的良性互动。

1 Increasing the Contribution of Total Factor Productivity to Economic Growth

1 提升全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献度

The sources of economic growth mainly consist of two parts: the growth of factor inputs and the growth of total factor productivity. The former is growth driven by factor inputs, while the latter is growth driven by innovation. Currently, enhancing total factor productivity through innovation-driven development is becoming increasingly important for China’s economic growth. Facing the historic opportunities and challenges brought by the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, accelerating high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening and promoting the development of new quality productive forces have become important strategic choices for China. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, improving total factor productivity by accelerating the development of new quality productive forces will be an important source of momentum for China’s economic growth.

经济增长的源泉主要包括要素投入的增长和全要素生产率的增长两部分，前一部分是由要素投入驱动的增长，后一部分是由创新驱动的增长。当前，以创新驱动提升全要素生产率对我国经济增长的贡献度日益重要。面对新一轮科技革命和产业变革带来的历史性机遇与挑战，加快推动高水平科技自立自强、促进新质生产力发展成为我国重要战略选择。“十五五”时期，通过加快发展新质生产力提升全要素生产率是我国经济增长的重要动力源泉。

Improving total factor productivity through revolutionary breakthroughs in technology. Revolutionary breakthroughs in technology can push the frontier of cutting-edge technology outward, expand the production possibility frontier, and significantly enhance total factor productivity. The Proposal makes strategic deployments for “strengthening original innovation and tackling key core technologies.” During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it is necessary to leverage the advantages of the new nationwide system for mobilizing resources to concentrate efforts on key tasks, coordinate the national strategic scientific and technological forces, harmonize the role of the effective market and the competent government in the allocation of innovation resources, and focus on organized, full-chain collaborative efforts to tackle key core technologies in priority areas. Original innovation requires increased investment in basic research. The proportion of China’s basic research expenditure in total national R&D spending is relatively low; therefore, the diversified investment mechanism for basic research should be further improved, and the share of basic research investment should be increased.

以技术革命性突破提升全要素生产率。技术革命性突破能够推动前沿技术边界向外移动，拓展生产可能性边界，大幅提升全要素生产率。《建议》对“加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关”进行战略部署。“十五五”时期，要发挥好新型举国体制集中攻关的优势，统筹好国家战略科技力量，协调好有效市场和有为政府在创新资源配置中的作用，聚焦重点领域关键核心技术进行有组织、全链条的协同攻关。原始创新需要加大基础研发投入。我国基础研究经费占全国研发投入的比重偏低，应进一步健全基础研究多元投入机制，提高基础研究投入比重。

Improving total factor productivity through the innovative allocation of production factors. The innovative allocation of production factors is an important part of building new relations of production that are compatible with the development of new quality productive forces. Strengthening the protection and application of intellectual property rights can further incentivize scientists and entrepreneurs to engage in scientific and technological innovation, accelerating the pace of technological innovation and application. Establishing and improving a coordinated mechanism for the integrated advancement of education, science and technology, and talent development can smooth the channels for talent exchange among universities, research institutes, and enterprises, support leading technology-based enterprises in forming innovation consortia with universities and research institutions, and strengthen enterprise-led integration of industry, academia, and research for innovation. Improving the basic system for data factors and building an open, shared, and secure national integrated data market can deepen the development and utilization of data resources and accelerate the deep integration of the real economy and the digital economy. Actively developing direct financing such as equity and bonds, steadily developing futures, derivatives, and asset securitization, and deepening the reform of the financial system can guide multi-form financial resources to precisely empower scientific and technological innovation. Strengthening human resource development and investment, and establishing a development mechanism friendly to the accumulation of human capital investment, can realize the transformation from a quantitative demographic dividend to a qualitative talent dividend.

以生产要素创新性配置提升全要素生产率。生产要素创新性配置是构建与新质生产力发展相适应的新型生产关系的重要内容。加强知识产权保护和运用，能够进一步激励科学家和企业家从事科技创新，加快技术创新和应用的速度。建立健全一体推进教育科技人才发展的协同机制，能够畅通高校、科研院所、企业的人才交流渠道，支持科技领军企业联合高校、科研机构等组建创新联合体，强化企业主导的产学研融通创新。健全数据要素基础制度，建设开放共享安全的全国一体化数据市场，能够深化数据资源开发利用，加快推动实体经济和数字经济深度融合。积极发展股权、债券等直接融资，稳步发展期货、衍生品和资产证券化，深化金融体制改革，能够引导多业态金融资源精准赋能科技创新。加强人力资源开发和投资，健全人力资本投资累积友好型的发展机制，能够实现从数量型的人口红利向质量型的人才红利转型。

Improving total factor productivity through deep industrial transformation and upgrading. Deep industrial transformation and upgrading is an important factor in generating new quality productive forces. Scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation are the basic pathways for developing new quality productive forces. By providing high-quality scientific and technological supply, strengthening the principal role of enterprises in scientific and technological innovation, and promoting the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, relying on China’s advantages in its industrial foundation and its super-large market, accelerating the industrial application of scientific and technological achievements, coordinating efforts to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, cultivate and strengthen emerging industries, and strategically lay out future industries, promoting deep industrial transformation and upgrading, increasing the proportion of enterprises and industries with higher technological levels, achieving economic structural transformation and upgrading, and significantly enhancing total factor productivity.

以产业深度转型升级提升全要素生产率。产业深度转型升级是新质生产力的重要催生因素。科技创新和产业创新是发展新质生产力的基本路径。通过高质量科技供给、强化企业科技创新主体地位和促进科技成果转化应用，依托我国产业基础优势和超大规模市场优势，加快推动科技成果的产业化应用，统筹推进优化提升传统产业、培育壮大新兴产业和超前布局未来产业，推动产业深度转型升级，促使技术水平高的企业和产业提升占比，实现经济结构转型升级，大幅提升全要素生产率。

2 Strengthening the Role of Domestic Demand as the Main Driver of Economic Growth

2 增强内需拉动经济增长主动力作用

Insufficient effective demand, especially insufficient domestic demand, is a difficulty and challenge currently facing economic operations. General Secretary Xi Jinping has emphasized: “We must accelerate efforts to make up for the shortcomings in domestic demand, especially consumption, so that domestic demand becomes the main driver and stabilizer of economic growth.” During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, while adhering to expanding high-standard opening up, it is necessary to continuously strengthen the role of domestic demand as the main driver of economic growth.

有效需求不足尤其是国内需求不足是当前经济运行面临的困难和挑战。习近平总书记强调：“要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。”“十五五”时期，在坚持扩大高水平对外开放的同时，必须持续增强内需拉动经济增长主动力作用。

Vigorously boosting consumption and consolidating the foundational role of consumption in economic growth. Consumption is both a driver of growth and the purpose of growth; the degree of satisfaction of residents’ consumption needs directly affects their living standards. The Proposal takes “a marked increase in the household consumption rate” as one of the main objectives for economic and social development, fully indicating that China’s economic growth is shifting more towards benefiting people’s livelihoods and promoting consumption, using consumption upgrading to lead industrial upgrading. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, vigorously boosting consumption is the main driving force for expanding domestic demand. It is necessary to systematically establish a long-term mechanism for boosting consumption from the aspects of enhancing consumption capacity, increasing the willingness to consume, and improving consumption conditions. First, increasing residents’ income. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it is necessary to accelerate the improvement of the income distribution system, implementing the institutional mechanisms and policy systems that ensure “synchronous growth of residents’ income and economic growth, and synchronous growth of labor remuneration and labor productivity.” By building an employment-friendly development model, improving the minimum wage adjustment mechanism, implementing a collective wage negotiation system, enhancing the quality of the labor force and labor productivity, increasing the share of labor remuneration in primary distribution, and promoting the reasonable growth of wage income. By stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, improving the normalized dividend distribution mechanism for listed companies, enriching financial products suitable for individual investors, improving the mechanism for distributing value-added income from rural land, and revitalizing the utilization methods of rural housing, expand channels for property income and increase residents’ property income. By supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and individual businesses, improving the development quality of new types of agricultural business entities, and improving the long-term mechanism for clearing arrears, increase residents’ business income. By improving the fiscal transfer payment system and consumption subsidy policies, increasing transfer payments for service consumption, and increasing residents’ transfer income. Second, increasing the proportion of residents’ per capita consumption expenditure in per capita disposable income. The proportion of Chinese residents’ per capita consumption expenditure in per capita disposable income is not high. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it is necessary to address the issue of not daring to consume by improving the social security system, address the issue of inconvenience in consuming by innovating consumption scenarios and improving consumption conditions, and address the issue of not wanting to consume by providing high-quality supply. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the growth rate of per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents has consistently outpaced that of urban residents. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, promoting integrated urban-rural development and narrowing the urban-rural income gap can expand overall consumption expenditure and increase the proportion of per capita consumption expenditure. Third, strengthening the protection of consumer rights and interests. Improve national standards, create a safe and reassuring consumption environment, further improve the co-governance system for consumer rights protection that combines business operators’ compliance with the law, industry self-discipline, consumer participation, government supervision, and social supervision, and improve the convenience, comfort, and satisfaction of consumption.

大力提振消费，夯实消费对经济增长的基础作用。消费既是增长的动力也是增长的目的，居民消费需求的满足程度直接影响居民的生活水平。《建议》将“居民消费率明显提高”作为经济社会发展的主要目标之一，充分表明我国经济增长更多转向惠民生和促消费，以消费升级引领产业升级。“十五五”时期，大力提振消费是扩大内需的主要动力，必须从提升消费能力、增强消费意愿和改善消费条件等方面系统性建构提振消费的长效机制。其一，提高居民收入。“十五五”时期需要加快完善收入分配制度，落实“居民收入增长和经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳动生产率提高同步”的体制机制和政策体系。通过构建就业友好型的发展方式、健全最低工资标准调整机制、推行工资集体协商制度，提升劳动力素质和劳动生产率，提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重，促进工资性收入合理增长。通过稳定股市楼市、完善上市公司常态化分红机制、丰富适合个人投资者投资的金融产品、健全农村土地增值收益分配机制和盘活农房利用方式等，拓展财产性收入渠道，增加居民财产性收入。通过支持中小企业和个体工商户发展、提高新型农业经营主体发展质量、健全清欠长效机制等，增加居民经营性收入。通过完善财政转移支付体系和消费补贴政策，加大对服务消费的转移支付力度，增加居民转移性收入。其二，提高居民人均消费支出占人均可支配收入的比重。我国居民人均消费支出占人均可支配收入的比重不高，“十五五”时期，需要通过健全社会保障体系解决不敢消费的问题，通过创新消费场景和改善消费条件解决不便消费的问题，通过高品质的供给解决不想消费的问题。“十四五”时期农村居民人均消费支出增速持续快于城镇。“十五五”时期，促进城乡融合发展和缩小城乡收入差距能够扩大整体消费支出，提升人均消费支出占比。其三，强化消费者权益保护。完善国家标准，营造安全放心的消费环境，进一步健全经营者守法、行业自律、消费者参与、政府监管和社会监督相结合的消费者权益保护共同治理体系，提高消费便利度、舒适度和满意度。

Expand effective investment and give full play to the key role of investment in stabilizing growth and adjusting structure. Investment is not only an important component of domestic demand, but also can form key productive forces that drive economic growth and structural transformation. Effective investment refers to high-quality investment that yields returns and is efficient. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, expanding effective investment requires maintaining a reasonable growth rate of investment scale and focusing on improving investment returns and efficiency. First, the gross fixed capital formation must maintain a reasonable growth rate. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, although the driving force of factor inputs is weakening, China’s economic growth still needs to maintain a certain growth rate of investment. The expansion of the total volume and quality improvement of gross fixed capital formation remain crucial to China’s economic growth, transformation, and upgrading. The structure of fixed asset investment needs further optimization. Accelerate the promotion of high-quality development of real estate, promote the continuous narrowing of the decline rate of real estate investment, and keep the proportion of real estate investment within a reasonable range. By constructing a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone, establish and improve a reasonable proportion investment mechanism for manufacturing, and promote the reasonable growth of manufacturing investment. By constructing a modern infrastructure system, moderately advance the construction of new infrastructure, promote the renewal and digital-intelligent transformation of traditional infrastructure, improve the modern comprehensive transportation system, and accelerate the construction of new energy infrastructure, so as to maintain reasonable growth of infrastructure investment. Second, focus on improving investment returns. Without investment returns, it is difficult to sustain the boosting of consumption; similarly, without consumption growth, it is also difficult to achieve improved investment returns. Consumption is past investment, and investment is future consumption. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it is necessary to focus on improving investment returns and promoting a positive interaction between consumption and investment. Deeply advance the construction of a unified national market, comprehensively rectify involution-style competition, achieve high quality at good prices, and raise the return rate of high-quality investment. Guide capital to flow into areas that meet the upgrading of residents’ consumption demand and the enhancement of human capital, promote the close integration of investment in things and investment in people, form consumption demand leading fixed asset investment, enhance the adaptability of supply and demand, and achieve effective investment. By improving the whole-process management of government investment and the benefit evaluation mechanism of government investment, establish an evaluation system for state-owned enterprises to fulfill their strategic missions, improve the classified assessment and evaluation system for state-owned enterprises, and enhance the efficiency of government public investment and state-owned capital investment. Third, steadily improve investment efficiency. Improving investment efficiency means increasing the capital-output ratio, prompting a reduction in the amount of capital required per unit of newly added GDP. Through the cluster development of advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industries, achieve scale effects and knowledge spillover effects, and improve investment efficiency. By developing new quality productive forces according to local conditions, implementing the “Artificial Intelligence+” action, promoting the deep integration of the real economy and the digital economy, and improving investment efficiency.

扩大有效投资，发挥好投资对稳增长调结构的关键作用。投资不仅是内需的重要组成部分，还能够形成推动经济增长和结构转型的关键生产力。有效投资是指有收益和有效率的高质量投资。“十五五”时期，扩大有效投资需要保持投资规模的合理增长，着力提高投资收益和投资效率。其一，固定资本形成额要保持合理的增长速度。“十五五”时期，尽管要素投入的驱动力减弱，我国经济增长仍需保持一定的投资增长速度，固定资本形成额总量扩张和质量提升对我国经济增长和转型升级依旧十分关键。固定资产投资结构需要进一步优化。加快推动房地产高质量发展，促进房地产投资降幅速度持续收窄，使房地产投资占比保持在合理区间。通过构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系，建立和完善制造业合理比重投入机制，促进制造业投资合理增长。通过构建现代化基础设施体系，适度超前建设新型基础设施、推进传统基础设施更新和数智化改造、完善现代化综合交通运输体系和加快建设新型能源基础设施等，使基础设施投资保持合理增长。其二，着力提高投资收益。缺乏投资效益，提振消费难以维系，同样，缺乏消费增长，提高投资效益也难以实现，消费是过去的投资，投资是未来的消费。“十五五”时期，需要着力提高投资收益，促进消费与投资的良性互动。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，加快综合整治内卷式竞争，实现优质优价，提升高质量投资的回报率。引导资本投向满足居民消费需求升级和人力资本提升等领域，推动投资于物与投资于人紧密结合，形成消费需求引领固定资产投资，增强供需适配性，实现有效益的投资。通过健全政府投资全过程管理和政府投资的效益评价机制，建立国有企业履行战略使命评价制度，完善国有企业分类考核评价体系，提高政府公共投资效益和国有资本投资效益。其三，稳步提高投资效率。提高投资效率就是要提高资本产出率，促使新增每单位GDP所需的资本额减少。通过先进制造业和战略性新兴产业的集群发展，实现规模效应和知识溢出效应，提高投资效率。通过因地制宜发展新质生产力，实施“人工智能+”行动，促进实体经济和数字经济深度融合，提高投资效率。

3 Achieving a positive interaction between the supply side and the demand side

3 实现供给侧与需求侧的良性互动

General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out, “Supply and demand are two fundamental aspects of the internal relations of the market economy, a dialectical relationship of both opposition and unity. The two cannot do without each other, are interdependent, and mutually conditional. Without demand, supply cannot be realized, and new demand can give rise to new supply; without supply, demand cannot be met, and new supply can create new demand,” and “Looking at the history of world economic development, whether economic policy focuses on the supply side or the demand side should be decided based on a country’s macroeconomic situation. Abandoning the demand side to talk about the supply side, or abandoning the supply side to talk about the demand side, is one-sided. The two are not a relationship of substitution where one is either-or or one goes and the other stays, but rather they need to cooperate with each other and be promoted in a coordinated manner.” [5]5 Xi Jinping’s remarks on supply and demand are from his speech at the 30th group study session of the Political Bureau of the 18th CPC Central Committee in January 2016. The 15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical period for laying a solid foundation and making comprehensive efforts to basically achieve socialist modernization. It is necessary to accelerate the development of new quality productive forces on the supply side to increase the contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth, and on the demand side to vigorously boost consumption and expand effective investment to strengthen the role of domestic demand as the main engine driving economic growth, thereby achieving a positive interaction between the supply side and the demand side.

习近平总书记指出，“供给和需求是市场经济内在关系的两个基本方面，是既对立又统一的辩证关系，二者你离不开我、我离不开你，相互依存、互为条件。没有需求，供给就无从实现，新的需求可以催生新的供给；没有供给，需求就无法满足，新的供给可以创造新的需求”，“纵观世界经济发展史，经济政策是以供给侧为重点还是以需求侧为重点，要依据一国宏观经济形势作出抉择。放弃需求侧谈供给侧或放弃供给侧谈需求侧都是片面的，二者不是非此即彼、一去一存的替代关系，而是要相互配合、协调推进”。“十五五”时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，要从供给侧通过加快发展新质生产力来提升全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献度，从需求侧通过大力提振消费和扩大有效投资来增强内需拉动经济增长主动力作用，实现供给侧与需求侧的良性互动。

Improving total factor productivity is an inevitable requirement for strengthening the role of domestic demand as the main engine driving economic growth. Boosting consumption requires raising the household consumption rate, which to a certain extent will lower the household savings rate. Investment is transformed from savings. A long-term decline in the savings rate will lead to a decline in the growth rate of capital formation, which requires improving investment efficiency to produce more goods and services to meet continuously growing consumption demand. With changes in the population structure, the growth rate of the working-age population is declining, which requires improving the investment efficiency of human capital and promoting high-quality population development. Therefore, whether investing in things or in people, it is necessary to improve investment efficiency, which inevitably requires improving total factor productivity. Due to the decline in the growth rate of traditional factors such as capital and labor, economic growth must shift from factor-input-driven to innovation-driven, relying more on the growth of total factor productivity. Therefore, only by improving total factor productivity can investment efficiency be improved, and can support for the sustainable growth of consumption be provided. Changes in the growth momentum on the demand side require corresponding changes in the growth momentum on the supply side. Similarly, strengthening the role of domestic demand as the main engine driving economic growth provides important support for improving total factor productivity. Improving total factor productivity means that the same factor input will produce more products. Whether for consumer goods or investment goods, product demand should rely more on the domestic large market, so as to better leverage the role of expanding domestic demand as an anchor for economic stability. Boosting consumption and expanding effective investment can expand effective demand, improve capacity utilization, and fully release the economic growth potential brought by improving total factor productivity. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we should deeply advance the construction of a unified national market, smooth the bottlenecks in the links of production, exchange, distribution, and consumption, and focus on promoting the positive interaction between consumption and investment, and between supply and demand.

提升全要素生产率是增强内需拉动经济增长主动力作用的必然要求。提振消费需要提高居民消费率，这在一定程度上会降低居民储蓄率。投资是由储蓄转化而来的，储蓄率长期下降会导致资本形成额增长率下降，这需要提高投资效率以生产更多商品和服务来满足持续增长的消费需求。随着人口结构变化，劳动人口增长率下降，这需要提高人力资本的投资效率，促进人口高质量发展。因此，无论是投资于物还是投资于人都需要提高投资效率，进而必然要求提升全要素生产率。由于传统资本和劳动等要素增长率下降，经济增长必须从要素投入驱动转向创新驱动，更多依靠全要素生产率的增长。因此，只有提升全要素生产率才能够提高投资效率，才能为消费的可持续增长提供支撑。需求侧增长动力的变迁需要供给侧增长动力变化与之相适应。同样，增强内需拉动经济增长主动力作用为提升全要素生产率提供重要支撑。提升全要素生产率意味着同样的要素投入会产出更多产品。无论是消费品还是投资品，产品需求应该更多依赖国内大市场，这样才能更好发挥扩大内需作为经济增长稳定锚的作用。提振消费和扩大有效投资能够扩大有效需求，提升产能利用率，充分释放提升全要素生产率带来的经济增长潜能。“十五五”时期，应纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，畅通生产、交换、分配和消费等环节的堵点，着力促进消费和投资、供给和需求的良性互动。

(Author: Huang Kainan, specially appointed researcher of the Shandong Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, Vice President of the Party School of the Shandong Provincial Committee of the CPC [Shandong Academy of Governance])

（作者：黄凯南，系山东省习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心特约研究员、中共山东省委党校〔山东行政学院〕副校〔院〕长）