Understanding China’s Economy through the Five “New” Dimensions – A Dialogue with Liu Wei, Former President of Renmin University of China

To observe China’s economy, one must look not only at the “form” of development but also grasp the “trend” and “logic” that determine its direction. At present, behind the complex macroeconomic data, on the one hand there is the real contradiction of “strong supply and weak demand,” and on the other hand there is an accumulation of deep-seated momentum for transformation toward a new economic development model. Looking ahead to 2026, what direction will China’s economy actually take? And how can macroeconomic policy strike a balance between stabilizing the present and planning for the long term? To address these questions, this edition of “Dialogue with Economists” invites Liu Wei, former President of Renmin University of China, to provide an in-depth interpretation from the dimensions of new situation, new contradiction, new policy, new law, and new model.

观察中国经济，不仅要看发展之“形”，更要把握决定走向的“势”和“理”。当前，复杂的宏观数据背后，一面是“供强需弱”的现实矛盾，一面也积蓄着向新的经济发展模式转型的深层动力。展望2026年，中国经济到底会有怎样的走向？宏观政策又该如何在稳当前与谋长远之间取得平衡？为解答好这些问题，本期“对话经济学家”邀请中国人民大学原校长刘伟从新形势、新矛盾、新政策、新规律、新模式等维度，进行深度解读。

Analysis of the New Situation – Grasping Three Key Words

新的形势分析—— 把握三个关键词

Reporter: Recently, China’s economic data for 2025 have been released. Based on the assessment of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, there is a general consensus that China’s economy, while under pressure, has shown a trend of “the overall picture stabilizing and the structure improving.” How do you view this latest report card?

记者：近期，2025年中国经济数据已出炉。结合2025年中央经济工作会议的判断，各界普遍认为中国经济在顶压前行中呈现了“大盘稳住、结构向优”的态势。您如何看待这份最新的成绩单？

Liu Wei: This report card has indeed attracted widespread attention both domestically and internationally. This is not only because of the size of China’s economy – its GDP accounts for about 18% of the global total – but also because China, as an important engine of global growth, has maintained a contribution rate to world economic growth of around 30% in recent years. The situation and policy direction of China’s macroeconomy affect the nerves of global markets. From the perspective of domestic development, 2025 is the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. The data for this year are not only related to the annual target but also to the realization of the entire five-year plan and even the 2035 long-range goals; their importance is self-evident.

刘伟：这份成绩单确实引发了国内外的广泛关注。这不仅因为中国经济的体量——GDP总量约占全球经济总量的18%，更因为中国作为全球增长的重要引擎，近年对世界经济增长的贡献率保持在30%左右。中国宏观经济的态势与政策走向，牵动着全球市场的神经。从国内发展进程看，2025年是“十四五”规划收官之年。这一年的数据不仅关乎年度目标，更关系到整个五年规划乃至2035年远景目标的实现，其重要性不言而喻。

In my view, this report card clearly reflects three characteristics, which can be summarized as “overall stability, progress amid stability, and a positive trend.”

在我看来，这份成绩单清晰地反映了三个特点，可以用“总体平稳、稳中有进、趋势向好”来概括。

First, “overall stability.” Economics usually uses four key indicators to judge the macroeconomic situation: economic growth, full employment, price stability, and balance of payments equilibrium. In 2025, China achieved the goal of “stability” in all four of these areas.

第一，“总体平稳”。经济学通常用四个关键指标来判断宏观经济形势，即经济增长、充分就业、物价稳定、国际收支平衡。2025年，中国在这四方面都实现了“稳”的目标。

First, economic growth met the target and showed resilience. The annual GDP growth rate was 5%, consistent with the target set at the beginning of the year. Looking at the quarters, the growth rate showed a trend of “high in the first half, slowing in the second half,” but the annual target was successfully met. On a global scale, this growth rate remains strong, far higher than the global average growth rate of about 3%. From a long-term strategic perspective, this growth rate has even deeper significance. China’s 2035 goal is to achieve per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries. To achieve this goal, China’s GDP needs to double from 2020 to 2035, which requires an average annual growth rate of about 4.73% over the 15 years. Among these, the 14th Five-Year Plan period requires an average annual growth rate of over 5%. The average growth rate from 2021 to 2024 was about 5.5%, and with the 5% in 2025, this means the economic growth target of the 14th Five-Year Plan has been successfully achieved, laying a solid foundation for medium- and long-term development.

一是经济增长达标且具韧性。全年GDP增速为5%，与年初设定的目标一致。分季度看，增速呈“前高后缓”态势，但全年顺利完成目标。放眼全球，这一增速依然强劲，远高于约3%的全球平均增速。从长期战略视角看，这一增速更具深意。我国2035年的目标是人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平。要实现这一目标，从2020年至2035年，我国GDP需翻一番，这就要求15年间年均增速保持在4.73%左右。其中，“十四五”期间需要年均增长5%以上。2021年至2024年平均增速约为5.5%，加上2025年的5%，意味着“十四五”规划的经济增长目标已圆满达成，为中长期发展奠定了坚实基础。

Second, overall employment was stable. In 2025, the surveyed urban unemployment rate was controlled within the target range of below 5.5%. According to experience, each percentage point of economic growth creates approximately 2.4 million new jobs. The 5% growth rate corresponds to about 12 million new jobs, effectively ensuring the basic employment picture. The main pressure on employment currently comes more from structural contradictions, requiring attention to issues such as the mismatch between labor skills and job demands caused by accelerated industrial transformation.

二是就业总量稳定。2025年城镇调查失业率控制在5.5%以内的目标区间。根据经验，经济每增长1个百分点，大约能创造240万个新增就业岗位。5%的增速对应约1200万个新增岗位，有效保障了就业基本盘。目前就业方面的主要压力更多来自结构性矛盾，需关注产业变革加速导致劳动力技能与岗位需求不匹配等问题。

Third, prices were generally controllable, but weak demand signals should be heeded. The year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) was flat and generally stable for the year, but it also reflects that total social demand remains insufficient. The Central Economic Work Conference specifically emphasized making the promotion of a reasonable rebound in prices an important consideration for monetary policy, which essentially means focusing on expanding effective demand.

三是物价总体可控，应警惕需求偏弱信号。全年居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比持平、总体稳定，但也反映出社会总需求仍显不足。中央经济工作会议特别强调把促进物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，实质上就是要着力扩大有效需求。

Fourth, the balance of payments remained robust. Against the backdrop of a complex and volatile global economy, China’s foreign trade imports and exports achieved 3.8% growth in 2025, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves remained stable at over $3.2 trillion, providing solid support for coping with external risks.

四是国际收支保持稳健。在全球经济复杂多变的背景下，2025年我国外贸进出口实现了3.8%的增长，外汇储备规模稳定在3.2万亿美元以上，为应对外部风险提供了坚实支撑。

Second, “progress amid stability.” If “overall stability” focuses on the achievement of “quantity,” then “progress amid stability” reflects an improvement in “quality,” that is, “moving toward the new and the excellent.”

第二，“稳中有进”。如果说“总体平稳”重在“量”的达成，那么“稳中有进”则体现了“质”的提升，也就是“向新向优”。

On the one hand, supply-side efficiency is improving, and new drivers are being accelerated. The most prominent manifestation is the accelerated formation of new quality productive forces, with various localities making arrangements according to local conditions. The growth rates of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing are significantly higher than the average industrial growth rate, reflecting the improvement in total factor productivity brought about by technological innovation, meaning that the production function of economic growth is undergoing positive changes. On the other hand, the demand-side structure is optimizing, and growth drivers are becoming more balanced. There are two positive changes here. First, the synergy between domestic and external demand has strengthened. In 2023, domestic demand was the absolute main driver of growth, with net exports contributing negatively. By 2024 and 2025, exports have turned into a positive driver, forming a favorable situation where both domestic and external demand work together. Second, the foundational role of consumption within domestic demand has strengthened. The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth has stabilized at over 50%, and the policy orientation is more clearly directed toward boosting consumption, requiring a close integration of investment in things and investment in people, making the drivers more balanced and more sustainable.

一方面，供给端效率在提升，新动能加速培育。最突出的表现是新质生产力加快形成，各地因地制宜进行布局。高技术制造业、装备制造业等增速显著高于工业平均增速，这反映了技术创新带来的全要素生产率提升，意味着经济增长的生产函数正在发生积极变化。另一方面，需求侧结构在优化，增长动力更趋均衡。这里有两个积极变化。一是内外需协同性增强。2023年，内需是拉动增长的绝对主力，净出口贡献为负。而到2024年、2025年，出口已转为正向拉动，形成了内外需共同发力的良好局面。二是内需中消费的基础性作用增强。消费对经济增长的贡献率已稳定在50%以上，并且政策导向更加明确地指向提振消费，要求投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，动力更趋均衡、更可持续。

Third, “a positive trend.” The Central Economic Work Conference proposed consolidating and expanding the economy’s momentum of stable and positive improvement. The expression “stable and positive improvement” means that positive signals from the economic cycle are beginning to appear. Looking at some monthly indicators from December 2025, there are indeed signs of stabilization after a decline. This judgment indicates that the intensity of macroeconomic policy in 2026 may be further strengthened, and the market can hold more optimistic expectations.

第三，“趋势向好”。中央经济工作会议提出，巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。“稳中向好”这一表述，意味着经济周期的积极信号开始显现。从2025年12月的一些月度指标看，也确实出现了止跌回稳的迹象。这一判断预示着2026年的宏观政策力度可能会进一步加强，市场可以抱有更乐观的预期。

Reporter: While affirming the achievements, the central authorities also attach great importance to risks and challenges. What do you think are the main pressures facing China’s economy currently? Are their roots cyclical or structural?

记者：在肯定成绩的同时，中央也高度重视风险挑战。您认为当前中国经济面临的主要压力是什么？其根源是周期性的还是结构性的？

Liu Wei: The current challenges are complex and severe, mainly manifested as “two-way pressure on supply and demand, and the superposition of domestic and international risks.”

刘伟：当前挑战复杂严峻，主要体现为“供给和需求双向承压、国内和国际风险叠加”。

In the short term, the contradiction of insufficient demand, especially domestic demand, is more prominent. The core of the demand contraction lies in the fact that the two engines of household consumption and enterprise investment are not strong enough. On the consumption side, it is mainly reflected in a slowdown in the growth rate. Consumption is a function of income, and the key factor is residents’ income. At the micro level, the growth rate of urban residents’ income is not that high, and existing income distribution disparities also suppress the overall propensity to consume. At the macro level, in the primary distribution pattern of national income, the share of the household sector is relatively low, restricting the release of consumption potential. On the investment side, the key factor is insufficient confidence in private investment. The current problem may be more about “difficulty in investing” – a lack of high-quality projects with stable expected returns, reflecting that the transmission chain from technological innovation to market demand is not smooth enough. Therefore, it is necessary to adhere to and implement the “two unswervinglies” [1]1 The 18th National Congress of the CPC was held in 2012, marking the beginning of the New Era under Xi Jinping’s leadership. and effectively boost the long-term development confidence of private enterprises.

短期看，需求侧特别是内需不足的矛盾更为突出。需求收缩的核心在于居民消费和企业投资两大引擎还不够强劲。消费方面，主要体现在增速有所放缓。消费是收入的函数，其关键因素在于居民收入。微观上，城镇居民收入增速没有那么高，且存在的收入分配差距也抑制了整体消费倾向。宏观上，在国民收入初次分配格局中，居民部门所占份额相对偏低，制约了消费潜力释放。投资方面，关键因素是民间投资信心不足。当前的问题可能更多是“投资难”——缺乏有稳定预期回报的优质项目，反映了从技术创新到市场需求的传导链条不够通畅。因此，必须坚持和落实“两个毫不动摇”，切实提振民营企业长期发展的信心。

The supply side is also under pressure, prominently reflected in bottlenecks in industrial upgrading and technological innovation, as well as the risk of “bottlenecks” [2]2 “Drinking poison to quench thirst” (饮鸩止渴) is a Chinese idiom meaning to seek a temporary solution that will lead to disaster. caused by external technological blockades.

供给端同样承压，突出体现在产业升级和科技创新面临瓶颈，以及外部技术封锁等带来“卡脖子”风险。

In addition, international environmental risks and domestic contradictions are superimposed on each other. The global economic recovery is weak, and some countries are pursuing trade protectionism, engaging in so-called “decoupling and severing supply chains,” attempting to impact China’s external demand and supply side and curb China’s development momentum.

此外，国际环境风险与国内矛盾相互叠加。全球经济复苏乏力，一些国家推行贸易保护主义，搞所谓的“脱钩断链”，试图冲击我国的外需和供给端，遏制中国发展势头。

In this complex situation, the “resilience” of China’s economy is particularly valuable. Whether it is the stability of the macroeconomic overall picture, the continuous advancement of structural adjustment, or the ample policy space and significant institutional advantages, all indicate that China has the ability and space to effectively coordinate resources and

在这种复杂局面下，中国经济的“韧性”尤为可贵。无论是宏观大盘稳定，还是结构调整持续推进，抑或是政策空间充足、制度优势显著，都表明我国具备有效统筹资源、应对重大挑战的能力和空间。只要坚持正确方向扎实行动，凭借这种强大韧性和长期向好的基本面，中国经济必能穿越周期，实现高质量发展。

New judgment on the principal contradiction — understanding the internal causes of "strong supply and weak demand"

新的矛盾判断——理解“供强需弱”内在成因

Reporter: The central authorities have judged the principal contradiction in current macroeconomic operations to be "strong supply and weak demand." Many people believe this is not a short-term characteristic but a structural problem arising from the transition of the stage of economic development. How do you understand this judgment?

记者：中央将当前宏观经济运行的主要矛盾判断为“供强需弱”。很多人认为这不是短期特征，而是经济发展阶段转换后的结构性问题。您如何理解这一判断？

Liu Wei: “Strong supply, weak demand” is a major judgment on the current state of macroeconomic operations. To understand this, one must return to the key task of macroeconomic regulation: maintaining a basic balance between aggregate social supply and aggregate social demand. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that, looking at the history of world economic development, whether economic policy focuses on the supply side or the demand side must be decided based on a country’s macroeconomic situation.

刘伟：“供强需弱”是对当前宏观经济运行状态的重大判断。理解这一点，必须回到宏观调控的关键任务——保持社会总供给和总需求的基本平衡上来。习近平总书记曾指出，纵观世界经济发展史，经济政策是以供给侧为重点还是以需求侧为重点，要依据一国宏观经济形势作出抉择。

Reviewing the practice since China’s reform and opening up, the principal aspect of this contradiction has evolved through several stages, and the main thread of our macroeconomic policy has adjusted accordingly.

回顾中国改革开放以来的实践，这一矛盾的主要方面经历了几个阶段的演进，我们的宏观政策主线也随之调整。

Before 1998, the main macroeconomic problem was that demand exceeded supply. The policy objective at that time was clear: manage demand, implement moderate tightening, and curb inflation.

1998年以前，宏观经济的主要问题是需求大于供给。彼时的政策目标很明确，即管理需求，适度紧缩，抑制通胀。

From 1998 to around 2012, the focus was more on dealing with surplus. Hit successively by the Asian financial crisis and the international financial crisis, China began to face the problem of overcapacity, initially in consumer goods and later spreading to investment goods. Policy shifted toward continuously expanding domestic demand, implementing proactive fiscal policies, and so on, to address the challenge of insufficient demand.

1998年至2012年左右，更多是应对过剩。受亚洲金融危机和国际金融危机相继冲击，我国开始面临产能过剩问题，最初是消费品，后来蔓延至投资品领域。政策转向持续扩大内需，实施了积极的财政政策等，以应对需求不足的挑战。

After the 18th National Congress of the CPC [1]1 The 18th National Congress of the CPC was held in 2012, marking the beginning of the New Era under Xi Jinping’s leadership., the principal aspect of the contradiction shifted to the supply side. Based on the judgment that the economy had entered a New Normal, the central authorities pointed out that the crux of the problem lay in the supply-side structure being unsuited to changes in demand. Therefore, supply-side structural reform was clearly established as the main thread, requiring efforts to improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system.

党的十八大以后，矛盾主要方面转向供给侧。基于经济进入新常态的判断，中央指出问题的症结在于供给侧结构不适应需求变化。因此，明确以供给侧结构性改革为主线，要求着力提升供给体系质量和效率。

In recent years, the contradiction on the demand side has once again become prominent. The central authorities have increasingly emphasized “coordinating the expansion of domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reform,” insisting on making the expansion of domestic demand a strategic foundation and defining it as a long-term strategy. The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference also placed the expansion of domestic demand in an important position. This means that the center of gravity of macroeconomic regulation is undergoing new and profound changes, shifting from relying mainly on supply-side structural reform to coordinating efforts on both the supply and demand sides, using demand to guide supply and supply to create demand.

近年来，需求侧矛盾再度凸显。中央更多强调“统筹扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革”，坚持把扩大内需作为战略基点，并明确为一项长期战略。2025年中央经济工作会议也将扩大内需放在重要位置。这意味着宏观调控的重心正在发生新的、深刻的变化，从主要依靠供给侧结构性改革转向供需双侧协同发力，以需求牵引供给、以供给创造需求。

It can be said that the judgment of “strong supply, weak demand” is by no means a mere fine-tuning of policy intensity; it points to corresponding changes in the overall framework, main policy thread, and tool structure of macroeconomic regulation. The focus of future economic work will be more concentrated on how to effectively expand domestic demand and, on this basis, promote a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand.

可以说，“供强需弱”的判断绝不仅仅是政策力度的微调，更指向宏观调控的整体框架、政策主线和工具结构都将发生相应改变。未来经济工作的重心将更加聚焦于如何有效扩大内需，并以此为基础，推动实现更高水平的供需动态平衡。

It must be recognized that “strong supply, weak demand” is a relative and structural concept, not an indication of absolute oversupply, and a comprehensive understanding of this is necessary. The so-called “strong supply” is a manifestation of China’s status as the world’s largest manufacturing country with a complete industrial system; it is a great achievement of decades of development and a solid foundation for future development. The so-called “weak demand” means that, at the current stage, the scale and growth momentum of effective demand are insufficient relative to the huge potential of supply, forming a constraint on the economic cycle. Looking further, China’s gap with developed economies is still mainly on the supply side, especially in terms of technological innovation and industrial modernization. At the same time, there are also structural contradictions on China’s supply side: some traditional industries do indeed have overcapacity, but high-quality supply in many areas remains insufficient, such as high-end manufacturing, quality education, medical care, and elderly services—fields related to the quality of modern life—which are still unable to fully meet the people’s aspirations for a better life.

需要看到的是，“供强需弱”是一个相对的、结构性的概念，不是指供给绝对过剩，对此要有全面认识。所谓“供强”，是我国作为世界第一制造业大国、拥有完整工业体系的体现，这是几十年发展的巨大成果和未来发展的坚实依托。所谓“需弱”，是指在当前阶段，有效需求的规模和增长动力相对于庞大的供给潜能而言显得不足，形成了对经济循环的约束。进一步看，我国与发达经济体的差距仍主要体现在供给侧，尤其是科技创新和产业现代化方面。同时我国供给端本身也存在结构性矛盾，部分传统产业确实产能过剩，但许多领域的高质量供给仍不足，如高端制造、优质教育、医疗养老等关乎现代生活质量的诸多领域，尚难以满足人民对美好生活的向往。

The key to resolving “strong supply, weak demand” lies in adhering to coordinated and balanced efforts. It is necessary both to stimulate and expand demand through reforms and policies, and to continuously deepen supply-side structural reform, relying on technological and institutional innovation to enhance the competitiveness and adaptability of the supply system, thereby achieving a virtuous interaction where new demand leads new supply and new supply creates new demand.

破解“供强需弱”的关键在于坚持统筹协调。既要通过改革和政策激发、扩大需求，也要持续深化供给侧结构性改革，依托技术创新和制度创新，增强供给体系的竞争力和适配性，以此实现以新需求引领新供给、以新供给创造新需求的良性互动。

Reporter: How did this contradiction of “strong supply, weak demand” form? What are its underlying causes?

记者：这种“供强需弱”的矛盾是如何形成的？其深层原因是什么？

Liu Wei: The causes are multifaceted and can be summarized in three points.

刘伟：原因是多方面的，可以归纳为三点。

First, institutional causes, involving the interactive impact of market segmentation and government intervention. Currently, the domestic market still has administrative barriers and local protectionism, which easily lead to redundant construction and convergence of industrial structures; this is an important reason for the formation of structural overcapacity. Market development itself is a historical process; it is still necessary to deepen reform and opening up and accelerate the construction of a unified national market to unblock circulation bottlenecks and lay a solid foundation for releasing domestic demand. At the same time, if some local governments intervene excessively or violate market laws, it may exacerbate market segmentation and distortion of resource allocation.

一是体制性原因，涉及市场分割与政府干预的交互影响。当前国内市场仍存在行政壁垒和地方保护，容易导致重复建设和产业结构趋同，这是形成结构性产能过剩的重要原因。市场发育本身是一个历史过程，仍需通过深化改革开放，加快建设全国统一大市场，来打通循环堵点，为释放内需奠定坚实基础。同时，部分地方政府若过度干预、违背市场规律，也可能加剧市场分割和资源配置扭曲。

Second, developmental causes: innovation capacity is not yet strong enough to fully lead the upgrading of demand. The adaptability and leadership of the supply system in response to changes in demand are still insufficient; the ability of new technologies, new models, and new business forms to transform into effective supply and create new demand needs improvement, and an efficient cycle between new supply and new demand has not yet formed.

二是发展性原因，创新能力尚不足以完全引领需求升级。供给体系对需求变化的适应性、引领性还不够强，新技术、新模式、新业态转化为有效供给和创造新需求的能力有待提升，新供给与新需求之间未能形成高效的循环。

Third, the impact of changes in the international environment. The previous development model of “two ends abroad, large imports and large exports” is difficult to sustain, and external uncertainties have risen significantly. China has proposed building a new development paradigm, which is a key measure to gain strategic initiative. However, the formation of this new development paradigm requires a process; during this period, the coordination of domestic and external demand and structural transformation will face phased pressures.

三是国际环境变化带来的影响。以往“两头在外、大进大出”的发展模式难以持续，外部不确定性显著上升。我国提出构建新发展格局，这是赢得战略主动的关键举措。但这一新发展格局的形成需要一个过程，在此期间，内外需协同和结构转换会面临阶段性压力。

Reporter: Looking ahead to 2026, to resolve the contradiction of “strong supply, weak demand,” where do you think the most important policy and reform focus should be placed?

记者：展望2026年，要破解“供强需弱”矛盾，您认为最重要的政策和改革着力点应放在哪里？

Liu Wei: Addressing the problem of “strong supply, weak demand” requires that the concepts and practices of macroeconomic governance keep pace with the times. Macroeconomic policy should focus on the following key points.

刘伟：应对“供强需弱”这一问题，要求宏观治理理念和实践不断与时俱进，宏观经济政策应聚焦以下几个关键。

First, adhere to taking economic construction as the central task and taking high-quality development as the theme. This is the foundation for building consensus and unified action. Facing any complex situation, development is always the foundation and key to solving all problems.

一是坚持以经济建设为中心和以高质量发展为主题。这是凝聚共识、统一行动的基础。面对任何复杂形势，发展始终是解决一切问题的基础和关键。

Second, the strategic center of gravity must be clear and prominent, making the persistence in expanding domestic demand a long-term strategy with precise force. Macro policy should firmly focus on expanding domestic demand, effectively boosting household consumption and expanding effective investment. This not only serves short-term stable growth but also buys time and space for resolving deep-seated structural contradictions and promoting economic transformation and upgrading.

二是战略重心必须清晰突出，把坚持扩大内需作为长期战略精准发力。宏观政策应坚定地将着力点放在扩大国内需求上，有效提振居民消费与扩大有效投资。这不仅服务于短期稳增长，更为破解深层结构性矛盾、推动经济转型升级赢得时间和空间。

Third, policy effectiveness must be significantly improved, pursuing proactive and effective action while maintaining intensity. The intensity of fiscal and monetary policies has already been significantly increased in 2025; in 2026, not only will the intensity not decrease, but it may also be appropriately increased depending on the situation. But more important than intensity is policy effectiveness. Policies need to be more precise, focusing on improving social expectations, invigorating market vitality, and unblocking bottlenecks in the circulation of consumption and investment, ensuring that policy dividends can be effectively transformed into endogenous drivers of economic growth.

三是政策效能必须显著提升，在保持力度的同时追求积极有为。2025年财政货币政策力度已显著加大，2026年不仅力度不减，还可能视情况适时加力。但比力度更重要的是政策有效性。政策需更加精准，着力于改善社会预期、提振市场活力、畅通消费与投资的循环堵点，确保政策红利能切实转化为经济增长内生动力。

New policy orientation – strengthening the coordination of macroeconomic policies

新的政策取向——强化宏观政策协同性

Reporter: We have noticed that there is a new change in the expression of current macroeconomic policy: while continuing to emphasize foresight and targeting, “coordination” has been particularly highlighted. The Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated “to leverage the integrated effect of stock policies and incremental policies.” How should these two types of policies be coordinated to make macroeconomic policy more proactive and effective?

记者：我们注意到，当前宏观政策的表述有一个新变化，在延续强调前瞻性、针对性的同时，特别突出了“协同性”。中央经济工作会议明确提出“发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应”。这两类政策应如何做好协同，以使宏观政策更加积极有为？

Liu Wei: Coordination is indeed a new policy orientation that needs attention. My understanding is that it mainly includes two dimensions: first, horizontal coordination, meaning that various macroeconomic policies, as well as macroeconomic policies and other economic and social policies, should maintain the same direction and avoid mutual contradiction. Second, vertical coordination, meaning that stock policies and incremental policies should ensure continuity and stability, achieving effective connection between old and new drivers.

刘伟：协同性确实是需要关注的一个新的政策取向。我的理解，它主要包含两个维度：一是横向协同，即各类宏观政策之间，以及宏观政策与其他经济、社会政策要保持同向，避免相互矛盾。二是纵向协同，即存量政策与增量政策之间要确保连续性和稳定性，实现新旧动能的有效衔接。

Achieving this multi-dimensional coordination requires, first of all, clarifying the central goal around which coordination revolves. This goal is high-quality economic development. Not only must economic policies be coordinated internally, but economic policies and non-economic policies must also exert force in the same direction. Only by closely adhering to this goal can coordination have direction and evaluation have a basis. Second, it is necessary to strive to overcome the possible “fallacy of composition” in practice. That is, policies introduced by individual departments or regions may seem reasonable and necessary from a local perspective, but when superimposed, they may produce contradictions, leading to poor overall results and a decline in resource allocation efficiency. This reflects underlying institutional problems such as fragmentation along departmental lines and sectoral barriers. Therefore, coordination requires not only consistent goals but also deepening reforms, strengthening coordination mechanisms, and forming institutional guarantees for coordination. In addition, continuously improving cadres’ ability to grasp and apply economic laws is also an important foundation for achieving scientific coordination.

实现这种多维度的协同，首要的是明确协同围绕的中心目标。这个目标就是经济高质量发展。不仅经济政策内部要协同，经济政策与非经济政策也要同向发力。只有紧扣这个目标，协同才有方向，评价才有依据。其次，要着力克服实践中可能出现的“合成谬误”。即单个部门或地区出台的政策，从局部看可能都合理且必要，但叠加在一起却可能产生矛盾，导致整体效果不佳、资源配置效率下降。这背后反映出条块分割、部门壁垒等体制机制问题。因此，协同性不仅要求目标一致，还需要深化改革，强化统筹机制，形成协同的体制机制保障。此外，不断提升干部把握和运用经济规律的能力，也是实现科学协同的重要基础。

Reporter: The Central Economic Work Conference proposed “strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment.” How should the coordination of these two types of policies be achieved in the work of 2026?

记者：中央经济工作会议提出要“加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度”，如何在2026年的工作中做好这两类政策的协同？

Liu Wei: Placing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment on an equal footing is a prominent feature of China’s macroeconomic governance. On the surface, this concerns coordination along the time dimension. Counter-cyclical adjustment mainly hedges against current economic fluctuations that have already emerged, belonging to short-term management; cross-cyclical adjustment, on the other hand, focuses on longer-term development, aiming to promote sustained medium- and long-term growth.

刘伟：将逆周期和跨周期调节并举，是我国宏观经济治理的一个突出特点。从表面上看，这关乎时间维度的协调。逆周期调节主要针对当下已出现的经济波动进行对冲，属于短期管理；跨周期调节则着眼于更长远的发展，旨在促进中长期持续增长。

But the deeper significance of emphasizing the coordination of the two lies in balancing both the quantity and quality of economic development. Counter-cyclical adjustment, such as interest rate cuts and expanding fiscal expenditure, primarily stabilizes growth by expanding aggregate demand, with a relatively clear effect on boosting “quantity” in the short term. Cross-cyclical adjustment, however, places greater emphasis on structural optimization, cultivation of new drivers, and enhancement of competitiveness, with its core being the promotion of improvements in “quality.”

但强调两者统筹，更深层的意义在于兼顾经济发展的量与质。逆周期调节如降息、扩大财政支出等，主要是通过扩大总需求来稳定增长，短期内对提振“量”的效果较为明显。而跨周期调节则更侧重于结构优化、动能培育和竞争力提升，核心是推动“质”的改善。

There have been historical lessons from the disconnection between the two. Before the 2008 international financial crisis, some developed economies, in order to combat recession and maintain prosperity, implemented excessively loose monetary policies, continuously lowering interest rates and credit standards. While this stimulated demand and expanded economic scale in the short term, it accumulated a large number of bubbles and poor-quality assets, essentially sacrificing the “quality” of long-term growth for short-term “quantity” prosperity. Later, when monetary policy tightened, these poor-quality assets exposed risks, triggering a severe recession and subsequently an economic crisis.

二者脱节在历史上是有过教训的。2008年国际金融危机前，一些发达经济体为对抗衰退、维持繁荣，实施过度宽松的货币政策，持续降低利率和信贷标准。这虽然在短期内刺激了需求、扩大了经济规模，但却积累了大量的泡沫和劣质资产，实质上是以牺牲长期增长的“质”为代价换取短期“量”的繁荣。后来货币政策转向收紧，这些劣质资产便暴露风险，引发严重衰退，进而导致经济危机。

Coordinating counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policies requires that macroeconomic policies must balance short-term growth stabilization with long-term quality improvement. When expanding demand, we must not excessively lower standards and overdraw the future like “drinking poison to quench thirst.” [2]2 “Drinking poison to quench thirst” (饮鸩止渴) is a Chinese idiom meaning to seek a temporary solution that will lead to disaster. Short-term policies must create conditions and reserve space for medium- and long-term structural transformation; medium- and long-term arrangements must also consider short-term practical constraints. This essentially unifies coping with current difficulties and seeking long-term development, stabilizing aggregate economic volume and optimizing economic structure, and implementing demand-side management and supply-side structural reform.

统筹逆周期和跨周期政策，要求宏观政策必须兼顾短期稳增长和长期提质量，在扩大需求时不能“饮鸩止渴”般的过度降低标准、透支未来。短期政策要为中长期的结构转型创造条件、预留空间；中长期布局也要考虑短期的现实约束。这实际上就是将应对当下困难和谋求长远发展、稳定经济总量和优化经济结构、实施需求侧管理和供给侧结构性改革有机统一起来。

New Understanding of Laws – The Logical Direction of the “Five Musts”

新的规律认识——“五个必须”的逻辑指向

Reporter: In recent years, the Central Economic Work Conference has almost annually summarized and refined the regular understanding of doing economic work well. In 2025, it proposed the “Five Musts.” Compared with the summaries of previous years, what continuities and innovations do you see in this formulation?

记者：中央经济工作会议近年来几乎每年都会总结提炼做好经济工作的规律性认识，2025年就提出了“五个必须”。与过去几年的总结相比，您认为这一提法有哪些延续和创新？

Liu Wei: After 2017, summarizing the regular understanding of doing economic work well has become an important part of the annual Central Economic Work Conference. This is actually a concrete manifestation of moving from applying the general principles of Marxist political economy to more consciously and systematically constructing an independent knowledge system of socialist political economy with Chinese characteristics based on Chinese practice. The prominent feature of the “Five Musts” proposed this time is their high degree of specificity and problem orientation, with each item targeting specific challenges and tasks currently faced in economic development.

刘伟：2017年后，总结做好经济工作的规律性认识成为每年中央经济工作会议的重要内容。这其实是从运用马克思主义政治经济学一般原理，进入到更自觉、更系统地构建基于中国实践的中国特色社会主义政治经济学自主知识体系的具体体现。此次提出的“五个必须”的突出特点是高度的具体性和问题导向性，每一条都针对当前经济发展中面临的具体挑战和任务。

For example, “must fully tap economic potential” addresses the issue of growth momentum and space at the macro level, involving the synergy of stock and increment; “must adhere to the simultaneous promotion of policy support and reform and innovation” focuses on improving systems and mechanisms; “must achieve both ‘enlivening’ and ‘managing well’” has its core in handling the relationship between the government and the market, enhancing governance efficiency; “must adhere to the close integration of investment in things and investment in people” emphasizes how to optimize the development pattern from the perspective of development factors and drivers; “must respond to external challenges by strengthening internal capabilities” emphasizes how to make good use of both domestic and international markets and resources under open conditions.

比如，“必须充分挖掘经济潜能”，解决的是宏观层面增长的动力和空间问题，涉及存量和增量的协同；“必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举”，聚焦于完善体制机制；“必须做到既‘放得活’又‘管得好’”，核心是处理好政府和市场的关系，提升治理效能；“必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合”，是从发展要素和动能的角度，强调如何优化发展格局；“必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战”，则是强调在开放条件下，如何利用好国内国际两个市场、两种资源。

Behind the specific deployments, several core principles of socialist political economy with Chinese characteristics run through them.

在具体部署的背后，贯穿了中国特色社会主义政治经济学的几个核心原理。

The first is following the law of contradictory movement between supply and demand in social reproduction. Whether it is tapping economic potential or adhering to the simultaneous promotion of policy support and reform and innovation, the core goal is to promote a balance between supply and demand at a higher level and cultivate new growth points. This is a long-term focus of our economic work, and this deployment is a deepening understanding and concrete application of this law under new conditions and new circumstances.

一是遵循社会再生产中供给与需求的矛盾运动规律。无论是挖掘经济潜能，还是坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，其核心目标都是推动供给和需求在更高水平上平衡，培育新的增长点。这是我们长期把握的经济工作重点，此次的部署是对这一规律在新形势新条件下的深化认识和具体运用。

The second is closely adhering to the core issue of handling the relationship between the government and the market. For example, emphasizing both “enlivening” and “managing well” is essentially a further concretization of the requirement to combine an effective market and a competent government, requiring that under the framework of “managing well,” we more fully “enliven” and stimulate the vitality of various business entities and factors to a greater extent. This also means that higher requirements and standards have been put forward for the understanding and practice of the relationship between the two.

二是紧扣处理好政府和市场关系这一核心问题。比如，强调既“放得活”又“管得好”，实质是对有效市场和有为政府相结合要求的进一步具体化，要求在“管得好”的框架下，更充分地“放得活”，更大程度地激发各类经营主体和要素活力。这也意味着对两者关系的认识和实践提出了更高要求和标准。

The third is to transform relations of production according to the requirements of the development of productive forces, and coordinate the relationship among reform, development, and opening up. High-level development cannot be separated from high-level reform and opening up as support. The proposals this time, such as “must adhere to the simultaneous promotion of policy support and reform and innovation” and “must respond to external challenges by strengthening internal capabilities,” all embody the idea of breaking down development obstacles and shaping new drivers through deepening reform and expanding opening up. This is a concrete application of the basic Marxist principle of the unity of opposites between productive forces and relations of production, and between the economic base and the superstructure.

三是依据生产力发展要求变革生产关系，统筹改革、发展、开放三者关系。高水平的发展离不开高水平的改革开放来支撑。此次提出的“必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举”“必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战”等，都体现了通过深化改革、扩大开放来破除发展障碍、塑造新动能的思路。这是马克思主义关于生产力与生产关系、经济基础与上层建筑对立统一基本原理的具体运用。

It should be pointed out that in recent years, adhering to the Party’s overall leadership over economic work is no longer merely listed as a specific regular understanding of economic work. This is because the Party’s leadership is the greatest advantage of the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and its status and role transcend the category of specific economic laws; it is the fundamental guarantee for leading economic work and all other work. Under this general principle, we then delve deeper into summarizing the specific regular understanding of economic work itself.

需要指出的是，近年来，坚持党对经济工作的全面领导，不再仅仅作为一条具体的经济工作规律来列举。这是因为党的领导是中国特色社会主义制度的最大优势，其地位和作用超越了具体的经济规律范畴，是统领经济工作和其他一切工作的根本保证。在这个总原则下，我们再深入总结经济工作本身的具体的规律性认识。

Reporter: Does the continuous summarization and deepening of these regular understandings also mean that we are forming a macroeconomic governance system with Chinese characteristics?

记者：这些规律性认识的不断总结和深化，是否也意味着我们正在形成具有中国特色的宏观经济治理体系？

Liu Wei: This can be fully understood. The concept of “macroeconomic governance” itself is a category based on Chinese practice and rich in originality. It transcends the macroeconomic regulation of Western mainstream economics, which focuses on short-term demand management, and is incorporated into the overall framework of modernizing the national governance system and governance capacity. Our macroeconomic governance system has at least two distinct characteristics. First, policy tools are more abundant and diverse. It is not limited to aggregate policies like fiscal and monetary policies but systematically incorporates industrial policies, regional policies, structural policies, etc., into the governance toolbox, enabling more precise and multi-dimensional regulation. Second, it takes institutional reform itself as an important variable for driving growth. In China, continuously deepening market-oriented reforms and handling the relationship between the government and the market is itself a key driving force for developing productive forces. It can be said that China’s macroeconomic governance is not only “policy regulation” but also “reform-driven,” a deep integration of development and reform.

刘伟：完全可以这样理解。“宏观经济治理”这个概念本身就是一个立足中国实践的、富有原创性的范畴。它超越了西方主流经济学侧重于短期需求管理的宏观调控，被纳入国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的总体框架。我们的宏观经济治理体系至少有两个鲜明特点。一是政策工具更加丰富多元。不只有财政、货币政策这类总量政策，还将产业政策、区域政策、结构政策等系统性地纳入治理工具箱，能够进行更精准、更立体地调控。二是将体制改革本身作为推动增长的重要变量。在我国，持续深化市场化改革、处理好政府和市场关系，本身亦是发展生产力的关键动力。可以说，我国的宏观经济治理不仅是“政策调控”，更是“改革推动”，是发展与改革的深层次融合。

The annual summarization of the regular understanding of economic work is precisely a manifestation of this macroeconomic governance system continuously exploring, improving, and undergoing theoretical sublimation in practice. The “Five Musts” proposed this time are the latest chapter in this continuously evolving process, reflecting both adherence to basic principles and innovative wisdom in the face of new situations and new tasks.

每年对经济工作规律性认识的总结，正是这套宏观经济治理体系在实践中不断探索完善和理论升华的体现。此次提出的“五个必须”，是这一持续演进过程中的最新篇章，既体现了对基本原理的坚持，也展现了面对新形势新任务的创新智慧。

New Development Model – Domestic Demand-Led, Consumption-Driven, Endogenous Growth

新的发展模式——内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长

Reporter: The “development model of domestic demand-led, consumption-driven, endogenous growth” was written into the proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan, becoming a landmark concept. How do you understand the deeper meaning of this model?

记者：“内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式”被写入“十五五”规划建议，成为具有标识性的概念。您如何理解这一模式的深层含义？

Liu Wei: To understand the new development model, we must first review the past growth model, which can be summarized by several characteristics. First, external demand played a huge role. Under a specific international division of labor and domestic development stage, China, relying on its complete industrial system, imported raw materials and components, processed them into industrial finished products, and used cost advantages to export to developed countries and other developing countries. The contribution of exports to economic growth was once very prominent. Second, economic growth has long been characterized by investment-driven features, which was compatible with the historical stage of being in a shortage economy, needing to quickly complete primitive accumulation, and solving the problem of “having or not having.” Third, the growth momentum mainly relied on expanding the quantity of factor inputs, an extensive, scale-expansion type of growth. This model had its historical objectivity and inevitability; we cannot judge it divorced from the historical conditions of the time.

刘伟：理解新的经济发展模式，先要回顾过去的增长模式，这可概括为几个特点。一是外需发挥巨大作用。在特定的国际分工和国内发展阶段下，我国凭借完整产业体系，进口原材料、零部件并加工为工业制成品，利用成本优势出口到发达国家以及其他发展中国家，出口对经济增长的贡献一度非常突出。二是经济增长长期呈现投资拉动特征，这与当时处于短缺经济、需要快速完成原始积累、解决“有没有”问题的历史阶段是相适应的。三是增长动能主要依靠要素投入量的扩大，是一种外延式的、规模扩张型的增长。这种模式有其历史客观性和必然性，我们不能脱离当时的历史条件去评判。

And now it is necessary to shift to a new economic development model, the fundamental reason being that the stage of development and the binding conditions have changed. China’s total economic output has exceeded 100 trillion yuan for many consecutive years, and its per capita GDP has ranked among the forefront of upper-middle-income countries. The core issue to be resolved has now shifted from “whether there is or not” to “whether it is good or not,” from pursuing scale expansion to pursuing quality improvement. This requires that the development mode must undergo a transformation.

而现在必须转向新的经济发展模式，根本原因在于发展的阶段和约束条件发生了变化。我国经济总量已连续多年超过百万亿元，人均GDP已位居中等偏上收入国家前列，现在要解决的核心问题，已经从“有没有”转向“好不好”，从追求规模扩张转向追求质量提升。这就要求发展方式必须发生转变。

The three key words of the new development model precisely respond to the demands of this era.

新发展模式的三个关键词，恰恰精准回应了这种时代要求。

The first is domestic-demand-led. This is an inherent law for a large economy moving toward maturity and stability. The economic growth of major developed economies, such as the United States and the European Union, ultimately relies mainly on domestic demand. The so-called “domestic-demand-led” does not mean moving toward closure, but rather that the circulation and growth of the national economy are mainly built on the foundation of a strong, unified domestic large market. This can enhance the autonomy and stability of economic development.

一是内需主导。这是大国经济走向成熟稳定的内在规律。主要发达经济体如美国、欧盟等，其经济增长最终都主要依靠内需。所谓“内需主导”，并非走向封闭，而是指国民经济的循环和增长主要建立在强大、统一的国内大市场基础上。这能增强经济发展的自主性和稳定性。

The second is consumption-driven. The principal contradiction in Chinese society has been transformed into the contradiction between the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development. Meeting consumption needs and improving the quality of life have thus become important purposes of development. Consumption, as final demand, imposes a hard constraint on the supply system and is a key force in driving supply-side upgrading and enhancing the quality of economic growth.

二是消费拉动。我国社会主要矛盾已经转化为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾，满足消费需求、提升生活品质就成为发展的重要目的。消费作为最终需求，对供给体系形成硬约束，是牵引供给升级、提升经济增长质量的关键力量。

The third is endogenous growth. Its core is that the driving force of growth shifts from relying on expanding the scale of factor inputs to being driven by technological innovation and institutional innovation. This is an important source for the economy to gain lasting competitiveness and sustainable development.

三是内生增长。其核心是增长动力从依靠扩大要素投入规模转向依靠技术创新和制度创新驱动发展。这是经济获得持久竞争力和发展可持续性的重要源泉。

These three aspects are mutually conditional and mutually reinforcing. Among them, endogenous growth is the most long-term source of power. Without a substantial improvement in efficiency and competitiveness, a domestic-demand-led model may lack the support of high-quality supply, and consumption upgrading would also be out of the question. Emphasizing a domestic-demand-led approach, forming a stable and continuously expanding domestic demand market, can provide valuable space for trial and error and market returns for enterprises’ transformation, upgrading, and technological innovation, and better cope with external shocks. Consumption-driven is a key pulling force. It is itself a major component of expanding domestic demand; as the consumption structure continuously upgrades, it in turn drives innovation and efficiency improvement on the supply side.

这三个方面是互为条件、相互促进的。其中，内生增长是最为长远的动力源泉。没有效率和竞争力的实质性提高，内需主导就可能缺乏高质量供给的支撑，消费升级也无从谈起。强调内需主导，形成一个稳定且持续扩大的内需市场，能为企业转型升级、技术创新提供宝贵的试错空间和市场回报，更好应对外部冲击。消费拉动则是一个关键的牵引力量。它自身是扩大内需的主要组成部分，随着消费结构不断升级，又牵引带动供给侧的创新和效率提升。

This is actually the concrete manifestation of the new development pattern in the development model. Constructing the new development pattern essentially means achieving a high level of self-reliance and self-strengthening, relying on the enhancement of endogenous momentum. Its strategic basis is expanding domestic demand, its bottom-line requirement is coordinating development and security, and its key support lies in smoothing the circulation of the national economy. Therefore, forming an economic development model that is more domestic-demand-led, consumption-driven, and endogenous-growth-oriented is precisely an inevitable requirement for accelerating the construction of the new development pattern.

这实际上是新发展格局在发展模式上的具体体现。构建新发展格局，实质是实现高水平的自立自强，依赖于内生动力的提升，其战略基点是扩大内需，底线要求是统筹发展和安全，关键支撑在于畅通国民经济循环。因此，形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式，正是加快构建新发展格局的必然要求。

Reporter: Under this new development model, what do you think are the key work priorities for the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]3 The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) is China’s national economic and social development blueprint, formally titled the “Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035.”?

记者：在这一新发展模式下，您认为“十五五”时期需要抓的工作重点是什么？

Liu Wei: In fact, the important deployments made in the proposal for the 14th Five-Year Plan have already provided us with clear guidance. The relevant economic tasks can be summarized into several aspects, among which expanding domestic demand remains at the forefront, as this can provide the necessary aggregate support for high-quality development. Based on a five-year or even longer development perspective, the plan places greater emphasis on and highlights substantive progress on the supply side and effective qualitative improvement of the economy. This is concentrated in two aspects: First, accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system. This includes promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, strengthening strategic emerging industries, and actively laying out future industries. This is the foundation for cultivating new quality productive forces and enhancing the adaptability of the supply system. Second, strengthening innovation as the primary driving force. Through scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening, we can break through key core technologies and better drive the improvement of total factor productivity.

刘伟：其实，“十五五”规划建议作出的重要部署已经为我们提供了清晰的指引。相关的经济任务可以归纳为多个方面，其中排在前列的依然是扩大内需，这能为高质量发展提供必要的总量支撑。立足五年乃至更长时间的发展，规划更强调和突出供给端的实质性进展和经济质的有效提升。这集中体现在：一是加快建设现代化产业体系。包括推动传统产业改造升级、壮大战略性新兴产业、积极布局未来产业，这是培育新质生产力、提升供给体系适配性的基础。二是增强创新这个第一动力。通过科技自立自强突破关键核心技术，更好驱动全要素生产率提升。

Practice has proven that without effective qualitative improvement, it is difficult to achieve reasonable quantitative growth. The policy focus during the 14th Five-Year Plan period must strike a balance between short-term stable growth and medium- to long-term quality improvement. The key is to promote institutional innovation and technological innovation through deepening reform, effectively transform the development mode, and cultivate strong endogenous growth momentum. This is also the inherent meaning of forming a new development model.

实践证明，没有“质”的有效提升，就难以实现“量”的合理增长。“十五五”时期的政策着力点，必须在短期稳增长与中长期提质量之间做好统筹，关键是通过深化改革推动制度创新和科技创新，切实转变发展方式，培育强大的内生增长动力。这也是形成新发展模式的题中之义。

(Economic Daily reporter Ouyang You)

（《经济日报》记者 欧阳优）