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The 15th Five-Year Plan: The Internal Logic and Practical Path of “Building a Strong Domestic Market” and the New Development Paradigm

李江涛、钱俊豪:“十五五”规划:“强大国内市场”与新发展格局的内在逻辑与实践路径

· · Modern Chinese History · "Mao Zedong Thought Study" 2025, no. 5 · 28 min read

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC proposed to “build a strong domestic market and accelerate the formation of a new development paradigm.” This is a major strategic deployment for achieving “significant results in high-quality development” in economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. It not only reflects the continuity of the major strategic choice to accelerate the formation of a new development paradigm, but also demonstrates the historical initiative to resolve development difficulties.

党的二十届四中全会提出,要“建设强大国内市场、加快构建新发展格局”。这是“十五五”时期经济社会发展实现“高质量发展取得显著成效”的重大战略部署,不仅体现出加快构建新发展格局这一重大战略抉择的延续性,也展现了破解发展难题的历史主动。

A review of relevant literature on CNKI shows that academic research on the integration of “building a strong domestic market” and the “new development philosophy” has formed a systematic discourse, generally recognizing an inherent unity and practical synergy between the two. First, in terms of theoretical logic, it is emphasized that building a strong domestic market is not an isolated strategy but a strategic vehicle for implementing the new development philosophy. The innovation concept is the core driving force, laying the foundation for new supply to create new demand through self-reliance in science and technology and supply-side structural reform; the coordination concept is the key pathway, aimed at breaking down imbalances in urban-rural and regional development and unblocking bottlenecks in the domestic circulation; the green concept is an inherent requirement, promoting green consumption and the upgrading of green industries to shape a sustainable market system; the openness concept clarifies that a strong domestic market is not about closing the door, but about enhancing the linkage effect of domestic and international dual circulations through higher-level opening up; the sharing concept is the fundamental purpose, continuously releasing domestic demand potential through common prosperity and improvement of people’s livelihoods, providing a stable social foundation for the market. Second, in the practical dimension, the focus is on how to guide the construction of a strong domestic market with the new development philosophy. On the demand side, research focuses on promoting income distribution reform through “sharing” to boost consumption, and guiding the upgrading of consumption structure through “green” principles; on the supply side, emphasis is placed on driving the modernization of the industrial system through “innovation” and optimizing the layout of productive forces through “coordination”; at the institutional environment level, research concentrates on breaking administrative monopolies and market segmentation through deepening the “openness” and “coordination” concepts, and building a unified national market. Furthermore, cutting-edge discussions are beginning to delve into more specific areas, such as exploring how emerging issues like the digital economy (integrating innovation and sharing), the dual-carbon goals (embodying green principles), and industrial chain security (linking innovation and openness) interact within this framework. Future research is expected to further quantify the contribution of the new development philosophy to improving market efficiency, and to deeply analyze the challenges and policy coordination solutions faced by their synergistic advancement in a complex international environment. Overall, existing research provides solid academic support for a “strong domestic market” and points to the key direction of transitioning from market scale advantages to quality and efficiency advantages. At the same time, some domestic newspapers, in a timely reporting manner, have published articles titled “Building a Strong Domestic Market and Accelerating the Formation of a New Development Paradigm” around the innovative theories of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, providing relevant policy interpretations. On this basis, this article starts from “why we need to build a strong domestic market and accelerate the formation of a new development paradigm,” clarifies its theoretical logic and the necessity of the times, and then systematically constructs a “demand-supply-driver-security” analytical framework. On the basis of accurately grasping the overall requirements, it focuses on four areas—building a strong domestic demand market, a strong domestic supply market, fundamental driving forces, and security capabilities in key areas—and nine key points, to promote high-quality development steadily and far-reachingly, aiming to provide new academic support for understanding the endogenous evolutionary logic of a large economy and to offer a framework reference for precise policy implementation of relevant strategic deployments during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

梳理目前知网相关文献,可以发现学界围绕“强大国内市场”与“新发展理念”的融合研究已形成系统化的论述,普遍认为二者存在内在统一性与实践协同性。首先,在理论逻辑上,强调建设强大国内市场并非孤立战略,而是践行新发展理念的战略载体。创新理念是核心动力,通过科技自立自强与供给侧结构性改革,为新供给创造新需求奠定基础;协调理念是关键路径,旨在破除城乡区域发展不平衡,打通国内大循环的堵点;绿色理念是内在要求,推动绿色消费与绿色产业升级,塑造可持续的市场体系;开放理念则明确了强大国内市场并非闭门造车,而是通过更高水平开放,增强国内国际双循环的联动效应;共享理念是根本目的,通过共同富裕与民生改善,持续释放内需潜力,为市场提供稳固的社会基础。其次,在实践维度上,重点探讨了如何以新发展理念引领强大国内市场的构建。在需求侧,研究聚焦于通过“共享”促进收入分配改革以提振消费,并通过“绿色”引导消费结构升级;在供给侧,强调以“创新”驱动产业体系现代化,以“协调”优化生产力布局;在制度环境层面,研究集中于通过深化“开放”与“协调”理念,破除行政垄断与市场分割,建设全国统一大市场。再者,前沿讨论开始向更具体的领域深入,例如探讨数字经济(融合创新与共享)、双碳目标(体现绿色)、产业链安全(关联创新与开放)等新兴议题如何在这一框架下相互作用。未来研究有望进一步量化新发展理念对市场效能提升的贡献,并深入剖析在复杂国际环境下,二者协同推进所面临的挑战与政策协同方案。总体而言,现有研究为“强大国内市场”提供了坚实的学理支撑,并指明了从市场规模优势向质量与效能优势转变的关键方向。同时,部分国内报纸以即时性报道方式,围绕党的二十届四中全会创新理论刊发题为《建设强大国内市场加快构建新发展格局》的文章,进行相关政策解读。在此基础上,本文从“为什么要建设强大国内市场,加快构建新发展格局”入手,廓清其理论逻辑与时代必然,进而系统构建“需求—供给—动力—安全”分析框架,在准确把握总体要求的基础上,聚焦建设强大国内需求市场、强大国内供给市场、根本动力和重点领域安全能力等四个领域,九个着力点,推动高质量发展行稳致远,以期为理解大国经济的内生演进逻辑提供新的学理支撑,并为“十五五”时期相关战略部署的精准施策提供框架参考。

I. The Internal Logic of Building a Strong Domestic Market and Accelerating the Formation of a New Development Paradigm

一、建设强大国内市场,加快构建新发展格局的内在逻辑

A “strong domestic market” is not only a strategic fulcrum for coping with external uncertainties, but also an inherent requirement for the steady and far-reaching advancement of Chinese-path modernization. From the stage of national development, the balance of international forces, domestic structural contradictions, the upgrading of the industrial system, to the economic logic of expanding domestic demand and supply creating demand, all indicate that the new development paradigm of “domestic circulation as the mainstay” has both profound epochal foundations and a solid practical basis. Therefore, the theoretical logic of building a strong domestic market needs to be systematically analyzed from the multidimensional interactions of demand and supply, structure and driving force, and development and security, in order to reveal how it becomes the fundamental lever for promoting effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, and to lay a theoretical framework for subsequent specific policy directions and practical paths. From a theoretical perspective, a “strong domestic market” is not a mere policy choice, but a structural necessity jointly determined by the transition of China’s economic development stage, profound changes in the international environment, and the operational laws of a large economy.

“强大国内市场”不仅是应对外部不确定性的战略支点,更是推动中国式现代化行稳致远的内在要求。从国家发展阶段、国际力量对比、国内结构性矛盾、产业体系升级,到扩大内需、供给创造需求的经济逻辑,均显示出“国内大循环为主体”的新发展格局既有深刻的时代依据,也有坚实的现实基础。因而,对建设强大国内市场的理论逻辑,需要从需求与供给、结构与动力、发展与安全的多维相互作用中进行系统分析,以揭示其如何成为“十五五”时期推动质的有效提升和量的合理增长的根本抓手,并为后续具体政策方向与实践路径奠定理论框架。从理论层面看,“强大国内市场”并非单纯的政策选择,而是由中国经济发展阶段跃迁、国际环境深刻变化以及大国经济运行规律共同决定的结构性必然。

(1) The Profoundly Complex and Changing External Environment Facing the 15th Five-Year Plan Period Requires Building a Strong Domestic Market as the Core to Accelerate the Formation of a New Development Paradigm

(一)“十五五”时期正在面临深刻复杂变化的外部环境要求必须以建设强大国内市场为核心,加快建设新发展格局

“Forming a new development paradigm” is one of the overall goals for China’s development by 2035 proposed by the 20th National Congress of the CPC, and also constitutes a major strategic task concerning the overall situation of Chinese-path modernization. Currently, there are still two five-year plan periods before China achieves this major goal or completes this major strategic task. Time waits for no one. The 15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical period for achieving a major breakthrough in promoting the formation of a new development paradigm and gaining strategic initiative in fierce international competition, holding an important position that links the past and the future.

“形成新发展格局”是党的二十大提出的二〇三五年我国发展必须实现的总体目标之一,也构成了事关中国式现代化全局的重大战略任务。当前,我国距离这一重大目标的实现或者重大战略任务的完成,还有两个五年规划期。时不我待,“十五五”时期是推动构建新发展格局取得重大突破,在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动的关键时期,具有承前启后的重要地位。

To deeply understand the urgency of building a strong domestic market as the core to accelerate the formation of a new development paradigm, we must first correctly recognize and grasp the external environment of China’s development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Xi Jinping pointed out: “The more severe and complex the external environment, the more we must accelerate the formation of a new development paradigm and firmly grasp the initiative in development. For the present and the foreseeable future, we must persist in strengthening the domestic circulation, accelerate the formation of a strong domestic economic circulation system, and use the stability of the domestic circulation to hedge against the uncertainty of the international circulation.” [1]1 Xi Jinping, speech at the 27th collective study session of the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee, January 31, 2023. This assertion precisely explains China’s major measures to respond to changes of the world, changes of the times, and changes of history.

要深刻理解以建设强大国内市场为核心,加快构建新发展格局的紧迫性,首先必须正确认识和把握“十五五”时期我国发展的外部环境。习近平指出:“外部环境越是严峻复杂,越要加快构建新发展格局,牢牢把握发展主动权。当前和今后一个时期,要坚持做强国内大循环,加快形成强大国内经济循环体系,以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定性。”这一论断精准阐释了我国应对世界之变、时代之变、历史之变的重大举措。

From an international perspective, the changes unseen in a century are accelerating, presenting unprecedented complexity and uncertainty. On the one hand, the balance of international forces is undergoing profound adjustments, and a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating breakthroughs. This provides a historical opportunity for China to leverage its latecomer advantages and achieve lane-changing overtaking, and also offers many favorable factors for China to actively maneuver in international space and shape the external environment. On the other hand, the world has entered a new period of turbulence and transformation, with significantly increased risks and challenges. The environmental conditions of the international circulation development model, characterized by “two ends abroad, large imports and large exports,” [2]2 “Two ends abroad, large imports and large exports” (两头在外,大进大出) refers to the export-oriented development model prevalent in coastal China during the early reform and opening up period, where raw materials and markets were both overseas, and processing and assembly took place domestically. which has been relied upon since reform and opening up, have undergone fundamental changes. The risks of external shocks and declining external demand, especially the actions of Western countries attempting to technologically “strangle” China and “decouple and sever supply chains” [3]3 “Decouple and sever supply chains” (脱钩断链) is a Chinese term for Western efforts to reduce economic interdependence with China, particularly in technology and critical supply chains. within the international circulation in a more complex and intense manner, pose severe challenges to China’s economic security.

从国际看,世界百年未有之大变局加速演进,呈现出前所未有的复杂性与不确定性。一方面,国际力量对比发生深刻调整,新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速突破,这为我国发挥后发优势、实现换道超车提供了历史机遇,也为我国主动运筹国际空间、塑造外部环境提供了诸多有利因素。另一方面,世界进入新的动荡变革期,风险挑战显著增多。改革开放以来长期依赖的,以“两头在外,大进大出”为特征的国际大循环发展模式,其环境条件已经发生根本性变化。外部冲击和外需下降的风险,特别是西方国家试图在国际循环中更加复杂激烈地对我国进行科技“卡脖子”和“脱钩断链”的行径,对我国经济安全构成了严峻挑战。

From a domestic perspective, the fundamentals of China’s long-term positive economic outlook have not changed, and the advantages of the system, the market, the industrial system, and human resources are more evident. However, the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development remains prominent, and risks and hidden dangers in key areas cannot be ignored. These internal structural contradictions may be amplified under external shocks and urgently need to be systematically resolved through the formation of a new development paradigm. Only by enhancing the awareness of potential dangers, adhering to bottom-line thinking, building a strong domestic market, and smoothing the domestic circulation to effectively respond to external risks and challenges, can we ensure that the ship of Chinese-path modernization sails forward bravely.

从国内看,我国经济长期向好的基本面没有改变,制度优势、市场优势、产业体系优势、人力资源优势更为彰显。然而,发展不平衡不充分问题依然突出,重点领域风险隐患不容忽视。这些内部结构性矛盾,在外部冲击下可能被放大,亟需通过构建新发展格局予以系统性解决。唯有增强忧患意识,坚持底线思维,通过建设强大国内市场、畅通国内大循环,有效应对外部风险挑战,才能确保中国式现代化航船破浪前行。

(2) Building a Strong Domestic Market is the Foundation for Strengthening the Domestic Circulation, the Key Link in Accelerating the Formation of a New Development Paradigm, and the Strategic Pillar of Chinese-Path Modernization

(二)建设强大国内市场是做强国内大循环的基础,是加快构建新发展格局的关键环节,是中国式现代化的战略依托

Only by standing on our own feet and smoothing the domestic circulation can we remain vibrant in survival and development no matter how the international situation changes. Building a strong domestic market is precisely the key and foundation for strengthening the domestic circulation and smoothing the dual domestic and international circulations. In April 2020, Xi Jinping first proposed the strategic concept of “fostering a new development pattern” at the seventh meeting of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs. In October 2020, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC made comprehensive arrangements for “forming a strong domestic market and fostering a new development pattern.” [1]1 Xi Jinping, speech at the 27th collective study session of the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee, January 31, 2023. Guided by the goal of “forming a new development pattern” by 2035, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC further explicitly proposed “building a strong domestic market and accelerating the fostering of a new development pattern.” [2]2 “Two ends abroad, large imports and large exports” (两头在外,大进大出) refers to the export-oriented development model prevalent in coastal China during the early reform and opening up period, where raw materials and markets were both overseas, and processing and assembly took place domestically. This series of interlocking and progressively advancing strategic deployments clearly indicates that a strong domestic market, through its immense demand-pull and supply-creation forces, provides the fundamental driving force and development space for smoothing the circulation of the national economy.

只有立足自身,把国内大循环畅通起来,才能任由国际风云变幻,始终充满朝气生存和发展下去。而建设强大国内市场正是做强国内大循环、畅通国内国际双循环的关键和基础所在。2020年4月,习近平在中央财经委员会第七次会议上首次提出“构建新发展格局”的战略构想。2020年10月,党的十九届五中全会对“形成强大国内市场,构建新发展格局”作出全面部署。在二〇三五年“形成新发展格局”目标的引领下,党的二十届四中全会进一步明确提出“建设强大国内市场,加快构建新发展格局”。这一系列环环相扣、不断阶梯式递进的战略部署清晰地表明,强大国内市场通过其巨大的需求牵引力和供给创造力,为畅通国民经济循环提供了根本动力和发展空间。

The most general characteristic of the economic development of a large country is that, due to its large population and huge market capacity, it can exhibit a greater tendency toward internal orientation. From the perspective of the actual foundation, the huge market of over 1.4 billion people, coupled with the fact that compared with developed countries, China’s per capita consumption scale still has considerable room for development and the size of the middle-income group is continuously growing, these factors all provide huge space for the increase in total consumption scale, endowing China with enormous market scale potential and advantages that no other country can match. As early as the beginning of reform and opening up, Deng Xiaoping pointed out: “For a socialist country like ours, of course we must open up to the outside world and strengthen international economic exchanges, but the largest market is still at home.” Xi Jinping emphasized: “The advantage of a large country’s economy is that it can circulate internally.” [3]3 “Decouple and sever supply chains” (脱钩断链) is a Chinese term for Western efforts to reduce economic interdependence with China, particularly in technology and critical supply chains. Both historical experience and theoretical logic show that relying on the domestic market and stimulating domestic demand potential is the source of strength for the sustained and healthy development of a large country’s economy.

大国经济发展的最一般特征是由于人口众多、市场容量巨大,可以体现出更多的内向化倾向。从现实基础看,14亿多人口的庞大市场,加之与发达国家相比我国人均消费规模仍有较大发展空间、中等收入群体规模的不断增长,这些因素都为消费总规模的提升提供了巨大空间,使我国呈现出巨大的市场规模潜力和优势,这是任何其它国家都无法比拟的。早在改革开放初期,邓小平就指出:“像我们这样一个社会主义国家,当然要对外开放,加强国际经济交往,但最大的市场还是在国内。”习近平强调:“大国经济的优势就是内部可循环。”历史经验和理论逻辑都表明,依托国内市场、激发内需潜力,是大国经济持续健康发展的力量之源。

In addition to a strong domestic demand market, a strong domestic market also includes a strong domestic supply market. The large quantity of high-quality consumer goods and services needed by China’s huge population cannot rely on supply from the international market, and the employment of such a huge population must also rely on the supply of domestic job positions. Therefore, taking the modernized industrial system as the core carrier and building a strong domestic supply market not only meets the people’s growing needs for a better life but is also an important manifestation of deeply implementing the employment-first strategy and building an employment-friendly development model. It is necessary to organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform, enhancing the endogenous driving force and reliability of the domestic economic circulation. This is a key link in accelerating the fostering of a new development pattern and the strategic foundation of Chinese-path modernization.

除强大国内需求市场外,强大国内市场亦包括强大国内供给市场。我国巨大规模人口所需要的大量高品质消费品和服务不可能依靠国际市场供应,巨大规模人口的就业也必须依靠国内就业岗位的供给,因此,以现代化产业体系为核心载体,建设强大国内供给市场,既满足了人民对美好生活日益增长的需要,也是深入实施就业优先战略、构建就业友好型发展方式的重要体现。要把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来,增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性。这是加快构建新发展格局的关键环节,是中国式现代化的战略依托。

(III) A Strong Domestic Market Will Lay a Solid Foundation for Promoting Both Effective Qualitative Improvement and Reasonable Quantitative Growth of the Economy During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

(三)强大国内市场将为“十五五”时期推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长奠定坚实基础

Promoting both effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy is an inherent requirement of high-quality development and an important guarantee for achieving the goals of Chinese-path modernization. Currently, China’s effective demand is insufficient, especially the long-term low household consumption rate, which restricts the realization of reasonable quantitative growth of the economy and prevents the full release of economic growth potential. There are blockages and obstacles in the domestic economic circulation, such as the arduous task of transitioning between old and new driving forces, key core technologies being controlled by others, and shortcomings in the modernized industrial system, which seriously hinder the effective qualitative improvement of the economy.

推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长是高质量发展的内在要求,是实现中国式现代化目标的重要保证。当前我国有效需求不足,特别是居民消费率长期偏低,制约了经济实现量的合理增长,导致经济增长潜力未能充分释放。国内大循环存在卡点堵点,如新旧动能转换任务艰巨、关键核心技术受制于人、现代化产业体系存在短板等,严重阻碍了经济实现质的有效提升。

Building a strong domestic market is the fundamental lever for breaking through the current predicament and achieving both “quality” and “quantity” during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. A strong domestic market will inevitably, with its huge scale, continuously upgrading demand structure, and the stability of demand-driven supply, lay a solid foundation for the sustained and healthy development of China’s economy. On the one hand, a strong domestic market is the ballast stone for achieving reasonable quantitative growth and stabilizing the macroeconomic landscape. “Reasonable quantitative growth” is the prerequisite. To reach the level of moderately developed countries in per capita GDP by 2035, economic growth must be maintained within a reasonable range. Under circumstances where the international economic and trade order faces severe challenges and the momentum of world economic growth is insufficient, it has become an inevitable trend to rely more firmly on the strong domestic market and ensure that the role of domestic demand as the main driving force for economic growth continues to strengthen. On the other hand, a strong domestic market is the booster for promoting effective qualitative improvement and driving the transformation of development driving forces. “Effective qualitative improvement” is the foundation. A strong domestic market is not only reflected in scale advantages but also in the continuous upgrading of the demand structure. This will inevitably drive profound changes on the supply side, promote technological innovation, model innovation, and business format innovation, accelerate the development of new quality productive forces, and push industries toward the mid-to-high end.

建设强大国内市场,是“十五五”时期破局突围、实现“质”“量”并举的根本抓手。强大国内市场必然以其庞大的规模体量、持续升级的需求结构以及内需驱动供给的稳定性,为我国经济持续健康发展奠定坚实的基础。一方面,强大国内市场是实现量的合理增长、稳定宏观经济大盘的压舱石。“量的合理增长”是前提。到二〇三五年,人均国内生产总值要达到中等发达国家水平,就必须使经济增长保持在合理区间。在国际经济贸易秩序遇到严峻挑战,世界经济增长动能不足的情况下,更加坚定地依靠强大国内市场,确保内需拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增强,已经势所必然。另一方面,强大国内市场是促进质的有效提升、驱动发展动能转换的助推器。“质的有效提升”是根本。强大国内市场不仅体现为规模优势,更体现为需求结构的持续升级。这必然推动供给侧进行深刻变革,促进技术创新、模式创新和业态创新,加快发展新质生产力,推动产业迈向中高端。

II. Overall Requirements for Building a Strong Domestic Market and Accelerating the Fostering of a New Development Pattern

二、建设强大国内市场,加快构建新发展格局的总体要求

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, we must adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, adhere to the close integration of improving people’s livelihoods and promoting consumption, and of investing in things and investing in people, guide new supply with new demand, create new demand with new supply, promote positive interaction between consumption and investment, and between supply and demand, and inject strong momentum into promoting high-quality development.

“十五五”时期,要坚持扩大内需这个战略基点,坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合,以新需求引领新供给,以新供给创造新需求,促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动,为推动高质量发展注入强劲动力。

(I) Adhere to the Strategic Basis of Expanding Domestic Demand

(一)坚持扩大内需这个战略基点

On the one hand, expanding domestic demand is a long-term, strategic choice for promoting sustained and healthy economic development and responding to domestic and international risks and challenges. Xi Jinping pointed out: “Expanding domestic demand concerns both economic stability and economic security; it is not an expedient measure but a strategic move.” [4]4 The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC was held in October 2020 and adopted the “Recommendations for the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035.” This important assertion profoundly reveals the extreme importance of adhering to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand. On the other hand, the “triple pressures” of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations that have emerged since the 13th Five-Year Plan period have not been resolved, and in the current and future periods, demand, especially domestic demand, faces greater downward pressure. [5]5 The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC was held in July 2024.

一方面,扩大内需是推动经济持续健康发展、应对国内外风险挑战的长期性、战略性抉择。习近平指出:“扩大内需既关系经济稳定,也关系经济安全,不是权宜之计,而是战略之举。”这一重要论断深刻揭示了坚持扩大内需战略基点的极端重要性。另一方面,“十四五”时期以来所出现需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱“三重压力”并没有解除,而且在当前和今后一个时期,需求特别是国内需求面临更大的下行压力。

For a long time, China has consistently adhered to taking the expansion of domestic demand as the basic foothold for maintaining stable and relatively fast economic growth, promoting the continuous optimization of the economic structure, and shifting toward a domestic demand-led economy. From 2008 to 2024, China’s foreign trade dependence ratio dropped from 55.5% to 32.5%. Since the international financial crisis, the average contribution rate of China’s domestic demand to economic growth has been 98.3%, effectively offsetting the pressure brought by the cyclical contraction of the international market. Even from 2021 to 2024, when the international environment became more complex and severe, the average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth remained at a relatively high level of 86.4%, demonstrating the enormous resilience and potential of a strong domestic market. However, whether based on the higher goal requirements of medium- and long-term sustainable development, or on ensuring people’s livelihoods and consolidating the short-term growth foundation for stabilizing growth, employment, and expectations, it is necessary to “adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand” and effectively promote domestic demand to become the main driving force and stable anchor for economic growth.

长期以来,我国始终坚持把扩大内需作为保持经济平稳较快发展的基本立足点,推动经济结构持续优化,向着内需主导型经济转变。2008年至2024年间,我国对外贸易依存度从55.5%下降至32.5%。国际金融危机以来,我国内需对经济增长贡献率平均为98.3%,有效对冲了国际市场周期性收缩带来的压力。即使在2021年至2024年,国际环境更加复杂严峻,内需对经济增长的平均贡献率仍保持在86.4%的较高水平,展现出强大国内市场所具有的巨大韧性和潜力。然而,无论是基于中长期可持续发展的更高目标要求,还是基于民生保障和夯实短期增长基础的稳增长、稳就业、稳预期,都提出了必须“坚持扩大内需这个战略基点”的要求,切实推动内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。

Adhering to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand requires accelerating the construction of a complete domestic demand system. On the one hand, efforts should be made to enhance the fundamental role of consumption, enabling it to play a greater role in economic growth; on the other hand, the key role of investment in ensuring stable economic growth should be effectively strengthened, thereby forming a pattern of positive interaction and coordinated synergy between consumption and investment. In 2024, China’s household consumption rate was 39.9%, about 28 percentage points lower than that of the United States. At the same time, total household final consumption expenditure was about 37% of that of the United States, and per capita final consumption expenditure was less than one-tenth of that of the United States. This not only reflects the gap but also indicates huge potential. In terms of investment, it is necessary to further optimize the structure and improve investment efficiency, guiding funds toward areas such as people’s livelihood construction, infrastructure shortcomings, strategic emerging industries and future industries, optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, and modern agriculture, which benefit both supply and demand and have multiplier effects, forming a higher-level dynamic balance where demand drives supply and supply creates demand, laying a solid foundation for fostering a new development pattern.

坚持扩大内需这个战略基点,需要加快构建完整的内需体系。一方面,着力提升消费的基础性作用,使消费在经济增长中发挥更大作用;另一方面,切实增强投资对确保经济增速平稳的关键作用,进而形成消费与投资良性互动、协同发力的格局。2024年,我国居民消费率为39.9%,比美国约低28个百分点,同时,居民最终消费总支出约为美国的37%,人均最终消费支出不到美国的1/10。这既反映了差距,也预示着巨大潜力。投资方面,则要进一步优化结构、提高投资效率,引导资金投向供需共同受益、具有乘数效应的民生建设、基础设施短板、战略性新兴产业和未来产业、传统产业优化提升、现代化农业等领域,形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡,为构建新发展格局奠定坚实基础。

(II) Adhere to the Close Integration of Improving People’s Livelihoods and Promoting Consumption, and of Investing in Things and Investing in People

(二)坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合

1. Adhere to the Close Integration of Improving People’s Livelihoods and Promoting Consumption

1. 坚持惠民生和促消费紧密结合

Persisting in the close integration of improving people’s wellbeing and promoting consumption is an important measure for exploring and innovating the consumer-driven impetus for sustained and healthy economic development. Improving people’s wellbeing is of great significance in “stabilizing expectations” and thereby promoting consumption; conversely, promoting consumption enhances growth momentum and thereby provides a sustained impetus for improving people’s wellbeing. The two are interdependent and mutually reinforcing. Xi Jinping pointed out, “Consumption is a function of income; we must increase the income of urban and rural residents through multiple channels, especially enhancing the consumption capacity of low- and middle-income residents, who have a high propensity to consume but were severely affected by the epidemic.” This profoundly reveals an important area for promoting consumption in our country: improving livelihood guarantees, stabilizing residents’—especially low- and middle-income residents’—expectations for future development, raising their propensity to consume, and increasing the total scale of consumption.

坚持惠民生和促消费紧密结合是探索和创新经济持续健康发展的消费原动力的重要举措。惠民生在“稳预期”进而促消费中的意义重大,反过来,促消费以提升增长动能而为惠民生提供持续动力,二者相互依存、相互促进。习近平指出,“消费是收入的函数,要多渠道增加城乡居民收入,特别是要提高消费倾向高、但受疫情影响大的中低收入居民的消费能力”。这深刻揭示了我国促进消费的一个重要领域,就是改善民生保障,稳定居民特别是中低收入居民对未来发展的预期,提升其消费倾向,增加消费总规模。

The essence of improving people’s wellbeing lies in systematically enhancing residents’ actual purchasing power and willingness to consume, while the new business forms and models spawned by consumption upgrading open new pathways for effectively enhancing the people’s wellbeing. Deeply integrating the improvement of people’s wellbeing with the promotion of consumption not only helps consolidate the endogenous driving force and reliability of the domestic economic cycle under the current complex external environment, but is also an inevitable requirement for practicing the people-centered development philosophy and promoting common prosperity to achieve substantial progress. Practice shows that investment in people’s wellbeing is not only a need for social construction but can also generate significant economic benefits, continuously expanding the space for consumption while steadily improving people’s wellbeing, and better meeting the people’s aspirations for a better life through the expansion and upgrading of consumption, thereby achieving synergy between social and economic policies.

惠民生的本质在于通过系统性举措提升居民实际购买力与消费意愿,而消费升级所催生的新业态、新模式又为切实增进民生福祉开拓了新路径。将惠民生与促消费深度融合,不仅有助于在当前复杂外部环境下夯实国内大循环的内生动力与可靠性,更是践行以人民为中心的发展思想、推动共同富裕取得实质性进展的必然要求。实践表明,民生投入不仅是社会建设的需要,同样能产生显著的经济效益,在持续改善民生中不断拓展消费空间,在消费扩容升级中更好满足人民对美好生活的向往,实现社会政策与经济政策协同增效。

2. Persisting in the close integration of investment in things and investment in people

2. 坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合

Persisting in the close integration of investment in things and investment in people is an important measure for exploring and innovating the investment-driven impetus for sustained and healthy economic development. Investment in things refers to consolidating the material and technological foundation of economic development through infrastructure construction, advanced equipment renewal, and improvement of the industrial system, thereby enhancing total factor productivity and the quality of the supply system. Investment in people focuses on livelihood areas such as education, healthcare, and social security, aiming to improve the quality of the labor force, stimulate innovation vitality, and enhance residents’ consumption capacity, thereby injecting sustained endogenous impetus into the economic cycle. In the critical period of China’s economic transition from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of high-quality development, the traditional growth model of “investment in things”—that is, relying on the expansion of material capital—faces challenges such as diminishing marginal returns and structural imbalances between supply and demand. It urgently needs to shift toward “investment in people”—that is, by increasing investment in human capital, driving the transformation of growth momentum from labor factor-driven to human capital innovation-driven. Of course, in the short term, this is difficult to achieve overnight. During the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan, achieving the close integration of the two will help resolve the current structural contradictions between supply and demand, forming a virtuous cycle between high-quality supply on the production side and high-level demand on the consumption side. Particularly against the backdrop of changes in population size and structure, strengthening investment in people is not only an inevitable choice to cope with the weakening demographic dividend of labor quantity but also a strategic measure to shape the human capital dividend and seize the commanding heights of new quality productive forces.

坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合是探索和创新经济持续健康发展的投资原动力的重要举措。投资于物指的是通过基础设施建设、先进设备更新和产业体系完善,夯实经济发展的物质技术基础,提升全要素生产率和供给体系质量。投资于人则聚焦教育、医疗、社会保障等民生领域,旨在提升劳动者素质、激发创新活力、增强居民消费能力,从而为经济循环注入持久内生动力。在我国经济由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段的关键时期,传统的“投资于物”即依赖物质资本扩张的增长模式面临边际效益递减、供需结构失衡等挑战,亟需迈向“投资于人”即通过加大人力资本投入,推动增长动力从劳动力要素驱动向人力资本创新驱动转换。当然,在短期内,这很难一蹴而就。“十五五”时期,实现二者紧密结合,有助于破解现阶段供给与需求结构性失衡的矛盾,使生产端的高质量供给与消费端的高水平需求形成良性循环。特别是在人口规模和结构变化的背景下,强化对人的投资既是应对劳动力数量红利减弱的必然选择,也是塑造人力资本红利、抢占新质生产力制高点的战略举措。

(III) Using new demand to lead new supply, and new supply to create new demand, promoting the positive interaction between consumption and investment, and between supply and demand

(三)以新需求引领新供给,以新供给创造新需求,促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动

1. Using new demand to lead new supply, grasping the new trends in consumption quality upgrading

1. 以新需求引领新供给,把握消费提质升级新趋势

The people’s pursuit of a better life means a demand for more varieties, higher levels, and better quality of products and services, which in turn requires a supply of more varieties, higher levels, and better quality to match. Material possessions, ownership, and functionality are no longer the entirety of residents’ consumption demands; needs such as experience, sharing, and emotion are becoming important components of residents’ consumption demands. New demands such as service consumption, digital consumption, and green consumption continuously raise new requirements for innovative supply, lead the direction of new supply, and open up new fields for investment. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the adaptability and flexibility of the supply structure to changes in demand, closely monitor changes in market demand, vigorously develop industries and products that adapt to new consumption trends, and especially increase the supply of high-quality services in areas such as education, healthcare, elderly care, culture, and tourism, to meet the people’s diverse, personalized, and high-quality consumption demands.

人民对美好生活的追求意味着人民对更多种类、更高层次、更优品质的产品和服务的需求,进而需要更多种类、更高层次、更优品质的供给与之相适配。物质、拥有、功能不再是居民消费需求的全部,体验、共享、情感等需求正在成为居民消费需求的重要组成部分。服务消费、数字消费、绿色消费等新需求,不断提出创新供给的新要求,引领新供给的方向,为投资不断开辟新的领域。因此,要提高供给结构对需求变化的适应性和灵活性,紧盯市场需求变化,大力发展适应新消费趋势的产业和产品,特别是要增加在教育、医疗、养老、文化、旅游等领域的优质服务供给,满足人民群众多样化、个性化、高品质的消费需求。

2. Using new supply to create new demand, cultivating new drivers of economic development

2. 以新供给创造新需求,培育经济发展新动能

The supply of high-quality new products and services based on new technologies, new business forms, and new models can create new consumption demands, scenarios, and categories, cultivating new consumption growth points. For example, the integration of “artificial intelligence + consumption” has given rise to new scenarios such as smart homes and unmanned retail; the development of the platform economy has created new business forms such as instant delivery and live-streaming e-commerce; breakthroughs in green technology have promoted the popularization of new energy vehicles and energy-saving home appliances. These new demands created by new supply not only expand the breadth and depth of the market but also provide a strong market driving force for industrial upgrading and technological progress. The supporting role of technological innovation should be further strengthened, enterprises should be encouraged to increase R&D investment, break through key core technologies, and create products and brands with international competitiveness. By improving the quality and efficiency of the supply system, potential demand should be transformed into actual consumption, achieving a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand.

基于新技术、新业态、新模式的高质量新产品和服务的供给,能够创造新的消费需求、场景和品类,培育新的消费增长点。例如,“人工智能+消费”的融合催生出智能家居、无人零售等新场景;平台经济的发展创造出即时配送、直播电商等新业态;绿色技术的突破推动了新能源汽车、节能家电的普及。这些由新供给创造的新需求,不仅拓展了市场的广度与深度,也为产业升级和技术进步提供了强大的市场牵引力。应进一步强化科技创新的支撑作用,鼓励企业加大研发投入,突破关键核心技术,打造具有国际竞争力的产品和品牌,通过提升供给体系的质量和效率,将潜在需求转化为现实消费,实现供给与需求之间更高水平的动态平衡。

III. Building a Strong Domestic Market, Accelerating the Construction of the New Development Pattern: Four Areas and Nine Key Points

三、建设强大国内市场,加快构建新发展格局的四个领域和九个着力点

Building a strong domestic market and accelerating the construction of the new development pattern must adhere to a systematic approach, focus on four key areas, and do a good job in nine aspects, with precise efforts to ensure that various measures are implemented effectively, laying a solid foundation for basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035.

建设强大国内市场、加快构建新发展格局,必须坚持系统观念,聚焦四个关键领域,做好九个方面工作,精准发力,确保各项措施落地见效,为到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化奠定坚实基础。

(I) Focusing on building a strong domestic demand market, forming a systematic domestic demand-led driving force for the new development pattern

(一)聚焦建设强大国内需求市场,形成新发展格局的系统性内需主导动力

A systematic domestic demand-led driving force is the fundamental basis for forming the new development pattern. There is an urgent need to build a strong domestic demand market and fully leverage its leading role in the domestic economic cycle.

系统性内需主导动力,是形成新发展格局的根本所在。当前亟待建设强大国内需求市场,充分发挥其在国内大循环中的引领性作用。

1. Vigorously boosting consumption

1. 大力提振消费

Consumption is final demand and the most fundamental, stable, and enduring driving force for economic growth. First, increase residents’ income by promoting high-quality employment and reasonably increasing the proportion of public service expenditure in fiscal expenditure, stabilize residents’ expectations, and enhance residents’ consumption capacity. Second, accelerate the cultivation of international consumption center cities, create diversified consumption scenarios with broad driving coverage and high visibility, expand service consumption by focusing on relaxing access and integrating business forms, expand and upgrade commodity consumption, and continuously improve the quality of consumer goods and services. Actively promote the debut economy [7]7 The “debut economy” (首发经济) refers to an economic model centered on the launch of new products, new services, new technologies, and new business models, often involving the opening of first stores or flagship stores in a given market, aimed at stimulating consumption through novelty and innovation., advance the integrated development of commerce, tourism, culture, sports, and health, cultivate and strengthen new types of consumption, and vigorously promote digital, green, and intelligent consumption. Promote the deep integration of online and offline consumption, and support the development of innovative models such as intelligent consumption and experiential consumption. Third, deepen institutional reforms in the consumption field, and remove institutional and mechanism obstacles that restrict consumption. Establish and improve a management system that adapts to the development of new consumption business forms, improve long-term mechanisms to promote consumption, especially inbound consumption, strengthen market price supervision, enhance the protection of consumer rights and interests, create a fair and orderly consumption environment, and fully unleash the potential of domestic demand.

消费是最终需求,是经济增长最基础、最稳定、最持久的动力。第一,以促进高质量就业和合理提高公共服务支出占财政支出比重来增加居民收入,稳定居民预期,提升居民消费能力。第二,加快培育国际消费中心城市,打造带动面广、显示度高的多元化消费场景,以放宽准入、业态融合为重点扩大服务消费,扩容升级商品消费,不断提升消费品和服务的质量。积极推进首发经济,推进商旅文体健融合发展,培育壮大新型消费,大力推进数字、绿色、智能消费。推动线上线下消费深度融合,支持智能消费、体验消费等创新模式发展。第三,深化消费领域制度改革,破除限制消费的体制机制障碍。建立健全适应新消费业态发展的管理体系,完善促进消费特别是入境消费的长效机制,加强市场价格监管,强化消费者权益保护,营造公平有序的消费环境,充分释放内需潜力。

2. Expanding effective investment

2. 扩大有效投资

First, focus on major national strategic deployments and the construction of security capacity projects in key areas, appropriately advance the layout of new-type infrastructure construction projects, and accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of traditional infrastructure. Increase support for investment in the manufacturing industry, promote enterprise equipment renewal and technological transformation, and advance the intelligent, green, and integrated development of industries. Second, improve mechanisms to promote private investment, remove various types of hidden barriers, and enhance the confidence of social capital in investment. Increase the support of central budget investment for private projects, coordinate the use of new-type policy-based financial instruments, guide private capital to participate in the construction of key area projects, and fully stimulate the vitality of private investment. Third, continuously improve the quality and efficiency of government investment, coordinate the use of various types of government investment, explore the compilation of a full-caliber government investment plan, reasonably divide the investment directions and priorities between the central and local governments, and strengthen the whole-process management of government investment. Finally, the investment layout should better adapt to changes in population structure and mobility trends, strengthen investment in human resource development and comprehensive human development, and improve the precision and effectiveness of investment.

首先,聚焦国家重大战略部署和重点领域安全能力项目建设,适度超前布局新型基础设施建设项目,加快推进传统基础设施数字化智能化改造。加大制造业投资支持力度,推动企业设备更新和技术改造,推进产业智能化、绿色化、融合化发展。其次,健全促进民间投资机制,破除各类隐性壁垒,增强社会资本投资信心。要加大中央预算内投资对民间项目的支持力度,统筹用好新型政策性金融工具,引导民间资本参与重点领域项目建设,全面激发民间投资活力。再次,不断提升政府投资质量和效益,统筹用好各类政府投资,探索编制全口径政府投资计划,合理划分中央和地方投资方向与重点,加强政府投资全过程管理。最后,投资布局要更好适应人口结构变化和流动趋势,强化人力资源开发和人的全面发展投资,提高投资的精准性和有效性。

3. Promoting coordinated development between urban and rural areas and among regions, increasing the coverage of the domestic economic cycle

3. 促进城乡区域协调发展,提高国内大循环的覆盖面

Only when coordinated development between urban and rural areas and among regions is achieved can the space for the domestic economic cycle become broader and its quality higher. First, leverage the synergistic effects of the regional coordinated development strategy, major regional strategies, the main functional area strategy, and the new urbanization strategy to enhance the economic and population carrying capacity of key economic development areas such as central cities and city clusters. Second, improve and perfect multi-level, multi-domain, and multi-form cross-regional coordination mechanisms, and strengthen inter-regional infrastructure connectivity, industrial collaboration, and market alignment. Third, study and apply the experience of the “Ten Million Project”[8]8 The “Ten Million Project” (千万工程) refers to the “Thousand Villages Demonstration, Ten Thousand Villages Renovation” project initiated in Zhejiang Province in 2003, a rural environmental improvement and development initiative later promoted nationwide., solidly advance comprehensive rural revitalization, and raise the level of rural infrastructure completeness, the convenience of public services, and the comfort of the living environment. Promote the two-way flow of urban and rural factors, advance urbanization construction with county towns as important carriers in a differentiated manner, and foster common prosperity and development between urban and rural areas.

只有实现了城乡、区域协调发展,国内大循环的空间才能更广阔、成色才能更足。第一,发挥区域协调发展战略、区域重大战略、主体功能区战略、新型城镇化战略叠加效应,增强中心城市和城市群等经济发展重点区域的经济和人口承载能力。第二,健全完善多层次、多领域、多形式的跨区域协作机制,加强区域间基础设施联通、产业协作和市场对接。第三,学习运用“千万工程”经验,扎实推进乡村全面振兴,提高农村基础设施完备度、公共服务便利度、人居环境舒适度。推动城乡要素双向流动,分类推进以县城为重要载体的城镇化建设,促进城乡共同繁荣发展。

4. Ensure and improve people’s livelihoods, and use common prosperity for all the people to unleash the fundamental driving force of domestic demand

4. 保障和改善民生,以全体人民共同富裕激发内需原动力

Ensuring and improving people’s livelihoods is an important foundation for unleashing the potential of domestic demand. First, thoroughly implement the employment-first strategy, improve various employment promotion mechanisms and policies, and build an employment-friendly development model. Effectively respond to the impact of changes in the external environment and new technological developments on employment. Second, improve the income distribution system, raise the share of household income in the distribution of national income, raise the share of labor remuneration in primary distribution, and improve the primary distribution mechanism whereby various factors are evaluated by the market for their contribution and receive remuneration according to their contribution. Promote the formation of an olive-shaped distribution pattern[9]9 An “olive-shaped distribution pattern” refers to a social structure with a large middle-income group and smaller proportions of high- and low-income groups, resembling the shape of an olive.. Third, improve a multi-tiered social security system that covers the entire population, coordinates urban and rural areas, is fair and unified, and is sustainable. Fourth, accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development, optimize the supply of government-subsidized housing, and increase the supply of housing for improvement purposes. Fifth, steadily advance the equalization of basic public services, improve the mechanism for allocating public resources in line with the permanent resident population, and push more public services to be delegated to the grassroots level, extended to rural areas, and tilted toward remote areas and people with living difficulties.

保障和改善民生是激发内需潜力的重要基础。第一,深入实施就业优先战略,完善各类就业促进机制和政策,构建就业友好型发展方式。有效应对外部环境变化和新技术发展对就业的影响。第二,完善收入分配制度,提高居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重,提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重,健全各类要素由市场评价贡献、按贡献决定报酬的初次分配机制。推动形成橄榄型分配格局。第三,健全覆盖全民、统筹城乡、公平统一、可持续的多层次社会保障体系。第四,加快构建房地产发展新模式,优化保障性住房供给,增加改善性住房供给。第五,稳步推进基本公共服务均等化,健全与常住人口相匹配的公共资源配置机制,推动更多公共服务向基层下沉、向农村覆盖、向边远地区和生活困难群众倾斜。

(II) Focus on building a strong domestic supply market to form the systemic material and technological foundation and human capital guarantee for the new development paradigm

(二)聚焦建设强大国内供给市场,形成新发展格局的系统性物质技术基础和人力资本保障

To build the new development paradigm, it is necessary to have an independently controllable material supply system and human capital guarantee, thereby forming a strong domestic supply market.

构建新发展格局,必须有自主可控的物质供给体系和人力资本保障,形成强大国内供给市场。

1. Accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system to meet basic material and employment needs and create new demand through high-quality supply

1. 加快建设现代化产业体系,以高质量供给满足基本物质和就业需求、创造新需求

The modern industrial system is the material and technological foundation of Chinese-path modernization and the concrete manifestation of a strong domestic supply market. First, consolidate and strengthen the foundation of the real economy, maintain the basic stability of the manufacturing sector’s share, and raise the level of modernization of industrial and supply chains. Use new technologies and new business forms to transform and upgrade traditional industries, grasp the trend of industrial transformation, cultivate and strengthen strategic emerging industries, and make forward-looking arrangements for future industries. Second, build a modern infrastructure system, plan a number of major infrastructure and application demonstration projects with prominent driving effects, and strengthen the supporting role of infrastructure for industrial upgrading. Third, enhance the status and competitiveness of key industries in the global industrial division of labor, accelerate the digital transformation of manufacturing, and develop smart manufacturing, green manufacturing, and service-oriented manufacturing.

现代化产业体系是中国式现代化的物质技术基础,是强大国内供给市场的现实体现。首先,巩固壮大实体经济根基,保持制造业比重基本稳定,提升产业链供应链现代化水平。运用新技术新业态改造提升传统产业,把握产业变革趋势,培育壮大战略性新兴产业,前瞻布局未来产业。其次,构建现代化基础设施体系,谋划一批带动作用突出的重大基础设施和应用示范工程,强化基础设施对产业升级的支撑作用。再次,推动重点产业在全球产业分工中的地位和竞争力提升,加快制造业数字化转型,发展智能制造、绿色制造、服务型制造。

2. Invest in people, promote high-quality population development, and strengthen the human capital guarantee capacity of the new development paradigm

2. 投资于人,促进人口高质量发展,增强新发展格局的人力资本保障能力

Whether it is ensuring the supply of human capital by building a high-quality, large-scale labor force, or expanding the scale of the domestic economic cycle by meeting the people’s needs for a better life and advancing common prosperity for all the people, it is necessary to “invest in people” and promote high-quality population development. First, improve the policy system for supporting childbirth, reduce the costs of family childbirth, child-rearing, and education, and implement the national strategy for actively responding to population aging. Improve the policy mechanism for the coordinated development of elderly care services and industries, and develop the silver economy. Second, improve the mechanism for allocating educational resources in response to demographic changes, and expand the supply of educational resources in towns and cities with net inflows of school-age population. Third, implement the health-first development strategy, advance the building of a Healthy China, and raise the average life expectancy and the health level of the people. Fourth, promote the integrated development of education, science and technology, and talent, strengthen the alignment of planning, the coordination of policies, the pooling of resources, and the linkage of evaluations, and achieve a positive interaction between independent scientific and technological innovation and the independent cultivation of talent.

无论是以打造高素质、大规模的劳动力队伍保障人力资本供给,还是以满足人民对美好生活的需要和推进全体人民共同富裕增进国内大循环规模,都需要“投资于人”,促进人口高质量发展。第一,完善生育支持政策体系,降低家庭生育养育教育成本,实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略。健全养老事业和产业协同发展政策机制,发展银发经济。第二,健全与人口变化相适应的教育资源配置机制,扩大学龄人口净流入城镇的教育资源供给。第三,实施健康优先发展战略,推进健康中国建设,提高人均预期寿命和人民健康水平。第四,一体推进教育科技人才发展,强化规划衔接、政策协同、资源统筹、评价联动,实现科技自主创新和人才自主培养之间的良性互动。

(III) Focus on building fundamental driving forces and eliminate the institutional and mechanistic obstacles that constrain the sound operation of the domestic economic cycle

(三)聚焦根本动力建设,消除制约国内大循环良性运行的体制机制障碍

Reform and innovation must be taken as the fundamental driving force to comprehensively eliminate various institutional and mechanistic obstacles and enhance the momentum and vitality that promote the sound operation of the domestic economic cycle.

要以改革创新为根本动力,全面消除各类体制机制障碍,增强促进国内大循环良性运行的动力和活力。

1. Resolutely break through the blockages and bottlenecks hindering the construction of a unified national market

1. 坚决破除阻碍全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点

Accelerating the construction of an efficient, standardized, fair competition, and fully open unified national market is an inherent requirement for building the new development paradigm. First, comprehensively clean up and abolish regulations and practices that hinder unified markets and fair competition, and break down local protection and market segmentation. Eliminate hidden thresholds and barriers in areas such as factor acquisition, qualification recognition, bidding, and government procurement, seriously investigate and punish various acts that restrict competition, and rectify improper market intervention behaviors. Second, improve unified basic institutions such as property rights protection, market access, and social credit, and improve the market entity exit system. Build fair and unified market supervision rules and standards, establish and improve a supervision system covering the entire process and the entire chain, intensify anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition law enforcement, and form an economic order that is both “able to let go” and “able to manage well”. Improve unified and coherent circulation rules and standards, and connect market facilities with high standards. Third, promote innovation in statistical, fiscal, and taxation, and assessment systems conducive to building a unified market, rationally distribute interests between enterprise headquarters and branches, and between production sites and consumption sites, and form an endogenous driving force.

加快建设高效规范、公平竞争、充分开放的全国统一大市场是构建新发展格局的内在要求。第一,全面清理废除妨碍统一市场和公平竞争的规定做法,破除地方保护和市场分割。消除要素获取、资质认定、招标投标、政府采购等方面存在的隐性门槛和壁垒,严肃查处各类限制竞争行为,整治不当市场干预行为。第二,完善统一的产权保护、市场准入、社会信用等基础性制度,健全市场主体退出制度。构建公平统一的市场监管规则与标准,建立健全覆盖全过程、全链条的监管体系,加大反垄断和反不正当竞争执法力度,形成既“放得活”又“管得好”的经济秩序。健全一体衔接的流通规则和标准,高标准联通市场设施。第三,推动有利于统一大市场建设的统计、财税、考核制度创新,合理分配企业总部和分支机构、生产地和消费地之间利益,形成内生驱动力。

2. Enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance and promote the formation of more economic development models led by domestic demand, driven by consumption, and based on endogenous growth

2. 提升宏观经济治理效能,促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式

The macroeconomic governance system for the new journey should focus on creating a new model of domestic-demand-led economic development with consumption as the core, while continuously improving the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance to provide an important guarantee for building a strong domestic market. First, improve a macroeconomic governance system with the national development plan as the strategic guide, fiscal and monetary policies as the main instruments, and close coordination among industrial, price, employment, consumption, investment, trade, regional, environmental protection, and regulatory policies. Strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, enhance the consistency of macro-policy orientations, and optimize the comprehensive performance assessment for high-quality development. Second, leverage the role of proactive fiscal policy, strengthen the coordination of fiscal resources and budgets, and enhance fiscal sustainability. Third, build a scientific and sound monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system, improve the modern financial regulatory system, and build a strong financial nation.

新征程的宏观经济治理体系应着眼于打造以消费为重心的内需主导型经济发展新模式,同时,以不断提升的宏观经济治理效能为建设强大国内市场提供重要保障。首先,健全以国家发展规划为战略导向,以财政政策和货币政策为主要手段,产业、价格、就业、消费、投资、贸易、区域、环保、监管等政策紧密配合的宏观经济治理体系。强化逆周期和跨周期调节,增强宏观政策取向一致性,优化高质量发展综合绩效考核。其次,发挥积极财政政策作用,加强财政资源和预算统筹,增强财政可持续性。再次,构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系,完善现代金融监管体系,建设金融强国。

(IV) Focus on building national security capacity in key areas and safeguard the new development paradigm with a new security paradigm

(四)聚焦重点领域国家安全能力建设,以新安全格局保障新发展格局

Balancing development and security is a basic prerequisite for building the new development paradigm. During the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan, we should focus on key areas, strengthen our awareness of potential dangers, and take building a new security paradigm for the new journey and seeking development amidst security as an important focal point for building a strong domestic market and ensuring the final formation of the new development paradigm. First, ensure the security of grain, energy resources, key industrial and supply chains, and major infrastructure, improve the level of intensive and safe utilization of water resources, and maintain the security of strategic corridors. Second, advance the construction of the national strategic hinterland and the backup of key industries, and enhance the resilience of industrial and supply chains to shocks. Third, strengthen the capacity for national security in emerging fields. Fourth, coordinate the orderly resolution of risks in real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions.

统筹发展和安全是构建新发展格局的基本前提。“十五五”时期,应聚焦重点领域,增强忧患意识,将构筑新征程的新安全格局,在安全中谋发展,作为建设强大国内市场、保障新发展格局最终形成的重要着力点。第一,确保粮食、能源资源、重要产业链供应链、重大基础设施安全,提高水资源集约安全利用水平,维护战略通道安全。第二,推进国家战略腹地建设和关键产业备份,增强产业链供应链抗冲击能力。第三,加强新兴领域国家安全能力建设。第四,统筹推进房地产、地方政府债务、中小金融机构等风险有序化解。

Conclusion

结语

At present, China’s economic development environment is undergoing profound and complex changes, with both strategic opportunities and risks and challenges coexisting. Shifting the foothold of development more toward the domestic sphere, building a strong domestic market, strengthening the domestic circulation, and smoothing the domestic-international dual circulation are of great practical significance for ensuring that the construction of a new development pattern achieves major breakthroughs during the period of the 15th Five-Year Plan [n10] and that decisive progress is made in basically realizing socialist modernization. A strong domestic market is not only a strategic layout to respond to external risks and challenges, but also an endogenous development advantage and core support for Chinese-path modernization. This construction process, by stimulating the potential of domestic demand, driving technological innovation, and ensuring the security of the industrial chain, is reshaping and will continue to reshape China’s economic structure, dynamic mechanisms, and development paradigm. Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan period and beyond, the maturation and perfection of a strong domestic market will fundamentally reduce dependence on external markets, forming a higher-level dynamic equilibrium in which demand drives supply and supply creates demand, thereby laying the most solid foundation for China to proceed steadily and far in a world full of uncertainty. This is not only an economic path, but also a necessary road for the rise of a major power toward security, resilience, and sustainable prosperity, and it will profoundly shape China’s future economic landscape and development trajectory.

当前,我国经济发展环境正在面临深刻复杂变化,战略机遇和风险挑战并存,将发展的立足点更多地放在国内,以建设强大国内市场,做强国内大循环、畅通国内国际双循环,对确保“十五五”时期构建新发展格局取得重大突破和基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展,具有重大现实意义。强大国内市场不仅是应对外部风险挑战的应势布局,更是中国式现代化的内生性发展优势与核心支撑。这一构建过程,通过激发内需潜力、驱动科技创新与保障产业链安全,正在并将持续重塑我国的经济结构、动力机制与发展范式。展望“十五五”乃至更长时期,强大国内市场的成熟与完善,将从根本上降低对外部市场的依赖度,形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡,为我国在充满不确定性的世界中行稳致远奠定最坚实的根基。这不仅是一条经济路径,更是一条通向安全、韧性与可持续繁荣的大国崛起必由之路,必将深刻塑造中国未来的经济格局与发展路径。部

Notes

  1. Xi Jinping, speech at the 27th collective study session of the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee, January 31, 2023. ↩
  2. “Two ends abroad, large imports and large exports” (两头在外,大进大出) refers to the export-oriented development model prevalent in coastal China during the early reform and opening up period, where raw materials and markets were both overseas, and processing and assembly took place domestically. ↩
  3. “Decouple and sever supply chains” (脱钩断链) is a Chinese term for Western efforts to reduce economic interdependence with China, particularly in technology and critical supply chains. ↩
  4. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC was held in October 2020 and adopted the “Recommendations for the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035.” ↩
  5. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC was held in July 2024. ↩
  6. The “triple pressures” of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations were first identified by the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2021 as the main challenges facing China’s economy at that time.
  7. The “debut economy” (首发经济) refers to an economic model centered on the launch of new products, new services, new technologies, and new business models, often involving the opening of first stores or flagship stores in a given market, aimed at stimulating consumption through novelty and innovation. ↩
  8. The “Ten Million Project” (千万工程) refers to the “Thousand Villages Demonstration, Ten Thousand Villages Renovation” project initiated in Zhejiang Province in 2003, a rural environmental improvement and development initiative later promoted nationwide. ↩
  9. An “olive-shaped distribution pattern” refers to a social structure with a large middle-income group and smaller proportions of high- and low-income groups, resembling the shape of an olive. ↩
  10. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is the next five-year plan for China’s national economic and social development, following the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025).