New Development Model Supports Building a Strong Economic Power

The outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan proposes promoting the formation of more economic development models that are dominated by domestic demand, driven by consumption, and characterized by endogenous growth. This is a major deployment based on the new changes in China's development stage and

“十五五”规划纲要提出，促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。这是立足我国发展阶段新变化和国际发展环境新形势作出的重大部署，也是从经济大国迈向经济强国的战略任务。要立足国情实际，在总结发展经验中深化规律性认识，明确主攻方向，更好统筹当前与长远、国内与国际，以改革创新为根本动力，加快形成消费与投资良性互动、供给与需求高效适配的更高水平动态平衡。

Important Experience: Optimizing the Development Orientation, Pattern, and Structure

重要经验：优化发展导向、格局、结构

The characteristic of a major-country economy is that it is driven by domestic demand and can circulate internally. Looking across the world, economic powers generally possess a strong driving force for economic growth from domestic demand, especially consumption. For China, in moving from a large economy to an economic power, it is necessary both to leverage the unique advantage of the internal circulation of the super-large market, firmly grasping the initiative in development amid complex and volatile situations; and, on the basis of continuously expanding the total economic volume, to significantly enhance the quality and efficiency of development, forming more economic development models that are driven by domestic demand, propelled by consumption, and based on endogenous growth; moreover, it is necessary to continuously enhance global influence through high-level opening up, undertake international responsibilities commensurate with China's economic strength and international status, and actively participate in and lead global economic governance.

大国经济的特征都是内需为主导、内部可循环。纵览世界，经济强国一般都具备内需特别是消费对经济增长的强劲拉动力。对我国而言，从经济大国迈向经济强国，既要发挥超大规模市场内部可循环的独特优势，在复杂多变的形势中牢牢把握发展主动权；又要在持续做大经济总量的基础上，显著提升发展的质量和效益，形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式；更要以高水平开放持续提升全球影响力，承担与我国经济实力和国际地位相匹配的国际责任，积极参与和引领全球经济治理。

Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [1]1 The term “new development model” (新发展模式) refers to a shift from the previous high-speed growth model to one emphasizing high-quality development, with a focus on domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic-internual dual circulation promoting each other., facing the accelerated evolution of changes unseen in a century and the transformation of the domestic economic development stage, the Party Central Committee has assessed the situation and made scientific judgments, promoting a systematic optimization and reshaping of the development orientation, pattern, and structure, initially forming a new situation of domestic demand driving economic growth, and accumulating important experience for building an economic power.

党的十八大以来，面对世界百年未有之大变局加速演进与国内经济发展阶段转换，党中央审时度势、科学研判，推动经济发展导向、格局、结构系统性优化和重塑，初步形成内需拉动经济增长的新局面，为建设经济强国积累重要经验。

First, promoting a shift in the development orientation, with high-quality development as the theme. Under the new development orientation, major strategies, major policies, major projects, and major engineering initiatives are used as levers to continuously solve development difficulties and strengthen development advantages. On the one hand, greater emphasis is placed on innovation-driven development. In 2025, China's R&D investment intensity across society increased to 2.8%, and its innovation index ranking rose to 10th globally; fields such as the digital economy and new energy vehicles have reached world-leading levels. On the other hand, greater emphasis is placed on simultaneous improvement in quantity and quality. While achieving steady growth in total economic output, the construction of a modern industrial system has achieved remarkable results, with the added value of manufacturing accounting for about 30% of the global share, and the proportion of high-tech manufacturing steadily rising. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the pace of green and low-carbon transformation accelerated, the quality of the ecological environment continuously improved, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation exceeded that of fossil energy, and in 2025, energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 5.1%, making the foundation of development greener and more substantial.

其一，推动发展导向转变，以高质量发展为主题。在新的发展导向下，以重大战略、重大政策、重大项目、重大工程等为抓手，不断破解发展难题、厚植发展优势。一方面，更加注重创新驱动。2025年我国全社会研发投入强度提高到2.8%，创新指数排名上升至全球第10位；数字经济、新能源汽车等领域跻身世界领先水平。另一方面，更加强调量质齐升。在实现经济总量稳健增长的同时，现代化产业体系建设成效显著，制造业增加值占全球比重约30%，高技术制造业占比稳步攀升。“十四五”时期，绿色低碳转型步伐加快，生态环境质量持续改善，非化石能源发电装机容量超过化石能源，2025年，单位国内生产总值能耗降低5.1%，发展的底色更绿、成色更足。

Second, promoting the reshaping of the development pattern, emphasizing the domestic grand circulation as the mainstay and the mutual reinforcement of domestic and international dual circulations. Implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand is regarded as a key support for responding to risks and challenges and ensuring development security. From 2013 to 2024, the average contribution rate of domestic demand to China's economic growth was 93.1%. In 2025, the foreign trade dependence ratio further decreased, firmly grasping the initiative in development in our own hands. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the average contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached about 60%, an increase of about 10 percentage points compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan period, further highlighting the main engine role of consumption in driving economic growth.

其二，推动发展格局重塑，强调以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进。把实施扩大内需战略作为应对风险挑战、保障发展安全的关键支撑。2013年至2024年，内需对我国经济增长的平均贡献率达93.1%。2025年，外贸依存度进一步下降，把发展的主动权牢牢掌握在自己手中。“十四五”时期最终消费支出对经济增长的平均贡献率达到60%左右，比“十三五”时期提高10个百分点左右，消费拉动经济增长的主引擎作用进一步凸显。

Third, promoting the optimization of the development structure, addressing the imbalance in development between regions and between urban and rural areas. With the in-depth implementation of a series of major strategies, the economic growth rate of the central and western regions has been faster than that of the eastern region for many consecutive years, the per capita GDP gap has continuously narrowed, a spatial layout of complementary advantages has initially taken shape, and regional development has become more coordinated. At the same time, urban-rural integration has been advanced in depth. In 2025, the urbanization rate of the permanent population reached 67.9%, new-type urbanization improved in quality and efficiency, the urban-rural resident income ratio narrowed to 2.34:1 in 2024, and the mechanism for the two-way flow of urban and rural factors has been continuously improved.

其三，推动发展结构优化，破解区域、城乡发展不平衡问题。一系列重大战略深入实施，中西部经济增速连续多年快于东部，人均GDP差距持续缩小，优势互补的空间布局初步形成，区域发展更趋协调。同时，城乡融合纵深推进，2025年常住人口城镇化率达到67.9%，新型城镇化提质增效，城乡居民收入比缩小至2024年的2.34∶1，城乡要素双向流动机制不断健全。

Fourth, promoting a leap in the level of opening up, shifting from opening up based on the flow of goods and factors to institutional opening up. While consolidating the advantages of opening up, the service industry is taken as an important focus for high-level opening up, with the scope of opening up in fields such as finance, telecommunications, and medical care continuously expanding. Institutional opening up in rules, regulations, management, and standards is steadily advanced. The number of pilot free trade zones has been increased and expanded to 22, and the Hainan Free Trade Port has achieved independent customs operations; the Foreign Investment Law has been promulgated, and the negative list for foreign investment access has been continuously shortened; the process of independent opening up and unilateral opening up has been promoted, implementing zero tariffs on 100% of tariff lines for all least developed countries having diplomatic relations with China, and implementing unilateral visa exemption or comprehensive mutual visa exemption for over 70 countries. China's position in global economic governance has significantly improved, its total trade in goods has ranked first in the world for many consecutive years, and its contribution rate to world economic growth has long remained at around 30%, making it the largest engine of global economic growth.

其四，推动开放能级跃升，从商品和要素流动型开放转向制度型开放。在巩固开放优势的同时，将服务业作为高水平开放的重要着力点，金融、电信、医疗等领域开放范围持续拓展。稳步推进规则、规制、管理、标准等制度型开放。自贸试验区提质扩围至22个，海南自由贸易港实现封关运作；出台外商投资法，持续缩减外资准入负面清单；推动自主开放、单边开放进程，对所有建交的最不发达国家100%税目产品实施零关税，对70多个国家实行单方面免签或全面互免签证。我国在全球经济治理中的地位明显提升，货物贸易规模连续多年居世界第一位，对世界经济增长贡献率长期保持在30%左右，是全球经济增长最大引擎。

Important Tasks: Coordinated Efforts from Three Dimensions

重要任务：从三个维度协同发力

A strong domestic market is both an important support for building a new development pattern and an advantage of a major-country economy. In the next 5 to 10 years, China will be in a historical window period for economic transformation and structural adjustment, and it is possible to build an economic power supported by a new development model while releasing the huge growth potential inherent in economic transformation and upgrading. To achieve this strategic goal, coordinated efforts are needed from three dimensions: making up for the shortcomings in consumption, strengthening the service trade, and actively expanding imports.

强大国内市场，既是构建新发展格局的重要支撑，也是大国经济优势所在。未来5年至10年，我国将处于经济转型和结构调整的历史窗口期，有条件在释放经济转型升级蕴藏的巨大增长潜力中建设以新发展模式为支撑的经济强国。实现这一战略目标，需从补齐消费短板、做强服务贸易、积极扩大进口三个维度协同发力。

From the perspective of making up for the shortcomings in consumption, precise efforts are needed to form a positive interaction between supply and demand. First, build a super-large market characterized by "Made in China + Consumed in China." According to relevant calculations, in 2024, China's manufacturing added value accounted for nearly 30% of the global share, while its final consumption accounted for about 13% of the global share. Preliminary estimates suggest that if the latter reaches the level of the former, it will add a consumer market of no less than $10 trillion. If a super-large market with strong supply and demand is formed, its global influence will be further enhanced, bringing broader market opportunities, investment opportunities, and growth opportunities to the world with China's large market. Second, expand the breadth and depth of the market with service-oriented consumption as the leading factor. In 2025, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents in China reached 46.1%, but there is still considerable room for improvement compared with developed countries. In the next 10 years, China will be in a period of rapid growth in service-oriented consumption. By 2035, if the proportion of service-oriented consumption of Chinese residents rises to over 55%, huge consumption potential will be released. Entering the era of rapid development of artificial intelligence, the integration of material consumption and service-oriented consumption will become a major trend, thereby giving rise to a large number of new business forms and new models, injecting strong impetus into building an economic power. Third, increase the household consumption rate. In 2024, China's household consumption rate was 39.9%, still 10 to 30 percentage points behind developed countries. By 2030, the household consumption rate is expected to rise to about 45%, and further to over 50% by 2035. By then, the scale of China's household consumption market may reach 110 trillion yuan, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth will significantly increase, and the pattern of being driven by domestic demand and propelled by consumption will become more established.

从补齐消费短板看，要精准发力形成供给和需求的良性互动。一是建设以“中国制造+中国消费”为特点的超大规模市场。据相关测算，2024年中国制造业增加值占全球比重近30%，最终消费占全球消费比重为13%左右。初步估算，若后者达到前者水平，将新增不少于10万亿美元的消费市场。如果形成供需双强的超大规模市场，其全球影响力将进一步提升，以中国大市场为世界带来更为广阔的市场机遇、投资机遇、增长机遇。二是以服务型消费为主导拓展市场广度深度。2025年，我国城乡居民人均服务性消费支出占比达到46.1%，但与发达国家相比仍有较大提升空间。未来10年，我国将处于服务型消费的快速增长期。到2035年，若我国居民服务型消费占比提升至55%以上，将释放巨大消费潜力。进入人工智能高速发展时代，物质型消费与服务型消费的融合将成为一个大趋势，并由此催生大量新业态、新模式，为建设经济强国注入强劲动力。三是提升居民消费率。2024年我国居民消费率为39.9%，与发达国家相比仍有10个至30个百分点的差距。到2030年，居民消费率有条件提升至45%左右，到2035年进一步提升至50%以上。届时，我国居民消费市场规模将可能达到110万亿元，消费对经济增长的贡献率明显提升，内需主导、消费拉动更为定型。

From the perspective of strengthening service trade, the focus should be on enhancing the operational efficiency of the domestic market to achieve connectivity between domestic and international markets. Service trade is key to a country’s economic competitiveness and serves as both a “lubricant” and “adhesive” linking domestic and international circulation. Currently, the value-added from the service sector accounts for over 60% of the final price of global products. Leveraging the engine role of service trade and continuously increasing its share is an inevitable requirement for building an economic power. In 2024, more than 54% of global service trade was delivered digitally, while China’s corresponding proportion was relatively small during the same period. At present, the basic conditions for the development of digital trade in China—such as market demand, technological supply, and enterprise entities—have largely taken shape, making it feasible to promote robust growth in digital trade and achieve the target of raising the share of digitally deliverable service trade to over 50% by 2035. Strengthening service trade and building a major service trade power depend on breakthroughs in institutional opening up. In this process, it is necessary both to actively plan and create diverse forms of open highlands, promote the integration of service trade in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and advance the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port by benchmarking against the world’s highest-level open forms; and to further shorten the national negative list for cross-border service trade, accelerating the alignment of rules, regulations, management, and standards with international norms.

从做强服务贸易看，要以提升国内市场运行效率为重点实现内外市场联通。服务贸易是一国经济竞争力的关键所在，也是连接内外循环的“润滑剂”和“黏合剂”。当前全球最终产品价格中，服务环节增值超过60%。发挥服务贸易的引擎作用，推动其占比不断提升，是建设经济强国的必然要求。2024年全球54%以上的服务贸易实现了数字化交付，而同期我国这个比重相对较小。目前我国数字贸易发展的市场需求、技术供给、企业主体等基础条件已基本形成，有条件推动数字贸易强劲发展，实现到2035年可数字化交付的服务贸易额占比提升至50%以上的目标。做强服务贸易、建设服务贸易大国依赖制度型开放的突破。在这一过程中，既要积极布局打造形态多样的开放高地，推进粤港澳大湾区服务贸易一体化，对标世界最高水平开放形态推进海南自由贸易港建设；又要进一步缩减全国版跨境服务贸易负面清单，加快推进规则、规制、管理、标准等与国际对接。

From the perspective of actively expanding imports, it is essential to enhance the global appeal and influence of China’s large market while strengthening its voice in formulating economic and trade rules. In 2025, China’s import volume reached 18.5 trillion yuan, making it the world’s second-largest import market for 17 consecutive years. Building an economic power requires both competitive exports and an increase in import scale to promote balanced trade development. This serves not only as a “booster” for meeting the people’s growing needs for a better life but also as a “catalyst” for forcing domestic industrial transformation and upgrading, and it is an important task in constructing a strong domestic market. In practice, reliance on relevant platforms and market construction can enhance the global influence of “China prices.” In the process of actively expanding imports and building a large import market, high-quality factors can be attracted and concentrated. For example, shifting from “attracting capital” to “selecting capital” can fill gaps in the industrial chain; actively establishing research platforms and R&D centers for multinational corporations can build a global talent pool; and leveraging rich application scenarios and complete industrial supporting systems can attract the localization and transformation of global scientific and technological innovation achievements. The role of the world’s second-largest import market in driving the international economic cycle should be utilized, with proactive expansion of imports of energy products, high-quality consumer goods, and related services from regions such as ASEAN.

从积极扩大进口看，要在显著提升中国大市场的全球吸引力和影响力中增强经贸规则制定话语权。2025年，中国进口规模达18.5万亿元，连续17年成为全球第二大进口市场。建设经济强国，需要有竞争力的出口，也需要进口规模提升，促进贸易平衡发展。这既是满足人民美好生活需要的“助推器”，也是倒逼国内产业转型升级的“催化剂”，更是建设强大国内市场的重要任务。在实践中，可依托相关平台和市场建设，提升“中国价格”的全球影响力。在积极扩大进口、建设进口大市场过程中吸引集聚优质要素。比如，实现从“引资”转向“选资”，补齐产业链短板；积极搭建科研平台和跨国企业研发中心，筑起全球人才蓄水池；依托丰富的应用场景和完善的产业配套，吸引全球科技创新成果落地转化；等等。发挥全球第二大进口市场在带动国际经济循环中的重要作用，主动扩大面向东盟等地区的能源产品、优质消费品及相关服务进口。

Key Measures: Solving Development Challenges Through Reform Methods

重要举措：用改革办法破解发展难题

Currently, China’s economic operation faces a structural contradiction of strong supply and weak demand. It is necessary to focus on deepening structural reforms, and through coordinated efforts in investment and consumption, urban and rural areas, and government and markets, inject strong momentum into building an economic power supported by a new development model.

当前，我国经济运行面临供强需弱的结构性矛盾。必须以深化结构性改革为重点，在投资与消费、城市与农村、政府与市场的协同发力中，为建设以新发展模式为支撑的经济强国注入强劲动力。

First, rationalize the relationship between consumption and investment, achieving dynamic balance between supply and demand by expanding effective demand. Consumption is both the endpoint and a new starting point of the economic cycle. Adapting to the major trend of upgrading the consumption structure of urban and rural residents from material-based to service-based, it is necessary to shift the focus of investment toward balancing people and goods, closely integrating investment in goods with investment in people, and better resolving the structural contradiction between investment and consumption. In the future, if tens of trillions or even hundreds of trillions of yuan are “invested in people” to ensure and improve people’s livelihoods, this will promote the formation of a long-term mechanism enabling residents to consume, dare to consume, and be willing to consume, making consumption the main driver of economic growth. At the same time, consumption upgrading should be used to force the optimization of the investment structure. Adapting to the new requirements that consumption structure upgrading places on the investment system, market access in service industries such as medical care, health, and education should be significantly liberalized, guiding both domestic and foreign capital into areas where people’s livelihoods are weak, and using high-quality supply to stimulate and create effective demand.

第一，理顺消费和投资的关系，在扩大有效需求中实现供需动态平衡。消费是经济循环的终点，也是新的起点。适应城乡居民消费结构从物质型向服务型升级的大趋势，必须推动投资重心转向人、物兼顾，坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，更好破解投资与消费的结构性矛盾。未来若以数十万亿元乃至百万亿元资金“投资于人”，保障和改善民生，将促进形成居民能消费、敢消费、愿消费的长效机制，使消费成为拉动经济增长的主动力。同时，要以消费升级倒逼投资结构优化。适应消费结构升级对投资体制提出的新要求，大幅放开医疗、健康、教育等服务业市场准入，支持引导内外资进入民生短板领域，以高质量供给激发和创造有效需求。

Second, adhere to integrated urban-rural development, unleashing huge domestic demand potential by advancing people-centered new-type urbanization. Currently, China has generally entered the late stage of industrialization, but there is still considerable room for improvement in the level of urbanization. According to estimates, for every 1 percentage point increase in China’s urbanization rate, over 200 billion yuan in new consumption demand can be generated annually. By 2035, if the urbanization rate of the registered population rises to around 65%, this will form an important driving force for building a strong domestic market. The key to advancing people-centered new-type urbanization lies in institutional innovation. It is necessary to comprehensively deepen reform of the household registration system, promote the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population, and enable migrant farmers to settle and stabilize consumption in cities and towns. Steadily and orderly promote the integrated development of urban agglomerations and the coordinated development of metropolitan areas, optimizing the spatial layout of population and industries. Without increasing the burden on residents, establish and improve the rural old-age insurance system, and consider accelerating the establishment of a basic public service system with roughly equivalent standards across urban and rural areas and regions.

第二，坚持城乡融合发展，在推进以人为本的新型城镇化中释放巨大内需潜力。当前，我国总体上进入工业化后期，但城镇化水平仍有较大提升空间。据测算，我国城镇化率每提高1个百分点，每年可以新增2000多亿元的消费需求。到2035年，若户籍人口城镇化率提升到65%左右，将形成建设强大国内市场的重要动力。推进以人为本的新型城镇化，关键在制度创新。要统筹深化户籍制度改革，推进农业转移人口市民化，使进城农民在城镇落户安家、稳定消费。稳妥有序推动城市群一体化和都市圈同城化发展，优化人口和产业空间布局。在不增加居民负担的前提下，建立健全农村养老保险制度，可考虑加快建立起城乡、区域间标准大体相当的基本公共服务体系。

Third, properly handle the relationship between government and the market, enhancing the vitality of the domestic market by optimizing the business environment. On the one hand, with the premise of clarifying functional boundaries, improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance. It is necessary to clarify the relationship between powers and responsibilities, optimize the division of administrative and fiscal powers between governments, and stimulate the enthusiasm of local governments in creating an environment, investing in people, and boosting consumption, forming a joint force for building a strong domestic market. On the other hand, use market-oriented reforms to break down barriers to factor mobility. Deeply advance the construction of a unified national market, accelerate market-oriented reforms of factors such as land, labor, capital, technology, and data, and ensure that various business entities use production factors equally and in accordance with the law; deeply advance the construction of a law-based government, strengthening the foundational role of competition policy; enhance international competitiveness through institutional opening up, making the opening of the service sector a highlight, and enhancing the global appeal of the domestic market through the alignment of domestic and international market rules.

第三，处理好政府与市场的关系，在优化营商环境中增强国内市场活力。一方面，以明确职能边界为前提，提升宏观经济治理效能。要厘清权责关系，优化政府间事权和财权划分，激发地方政府在营造环境、投资于人、提振消费等方面的积极性，形成建设强大国内市场的合力。另一方面，以市场化改革破除要素流动壁垒。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，加快推进土地、劳动力、资本、技术、数据等要素市场化改革，实现各类经营主体依法平等使用生产要素；深入推进法治政府建设，强化竞争政策基础性地位；以制度型开放提升国际竞争力，将服务业开放作为重头戏，在内外市场规则衔接中增强国内市场的全球吸引力。

[The author is a specially appointed researcher at the Hainan Provincial Research Center for the Theoretical System of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics and President of the China Institute for Reform and Development (Hainan)]

【作者系海南省中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心特约研究员、中国（海南）改革发展研究院院长】