Using “Investment in People” to Smooth the National Economic Cycle

[Study and Implement the Spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC]

【学习贯彻党的二十届三中全会精神】

During this year’s National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference sessions, “investment in people” became a widely discussed buzzword. This year’s government work report proposed channeling more financial resources into “investment in people” and serving the people’s wellbeing, supporting the expansion of employment, promoting increases in residents’ incomes and reductions in their burdens, strengthening consumption incentives, and forming a virtuous cycle of economic development and improvement of people’s livelihoods. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized closely combining “investment in things” with “investment in people,” “vigorously promoting the all-round development of people and common prosperity for all.” This important exposition not only profoundly reveals the laws of population and economic development but also correctly guides current and future high-quality development. At present, the principal contradiction in China’s macroeconomy is the impeded circulation of the national economy. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC called for smoothing the national economic cycle and stimulating the endogenous driving force and innovation vitality of the whole society. To implement the important deployment of “investment in people,” it is necessary to reconstruct the investment logic with systematic thinking, promote efficient synergy between “investment in things” and “investment in people,” and especially elevate “investment in people” to a strategic fulcrum for smoothing the national economic cycle, effectively increasing investment in “people.”

今年全国两会期间，“投资于人”成为广受关注的热词。今年的政府工作报告提出，推动更多资金资源“投资于人”、服务于民生，支持扩大就业、促进居民增收减负、加强消费激励，形成经济发展和民生改善的良性循环。习近平总书记强调，把“投资于物”同“投资于人”紧密结合起来，“有力促进人的全面发展、全体人民共同富裕”。这一重要论述不仅是对人口和经济发展规律的深刻揭示，也是对当前和未来高质量发展的正确引领。当前，我国宏观经济的主要矛盾是国民经济循环不畅。党的二十届三中全会要求，畅通国民经济循环，激发全社会内生动力和创新活力。落实“投资于人”这一重要部署，需要以系统思维重构投资逻辑，推动“投资于物”与“投资于人”高效协同，尤其要将“投资于人”上升为畅通国民经济循环的战略支点，切实加大对“人”的投资。

Fully Recognize the Strategic Significance of “Investment in People” for Smoothing the National Economic Cycle

充分认识“投资于人”对畅通国民经济循环的战略意义

“Investment in people” can play an important leveraging role in releasing consumption potential, improving investment efficiency, and optimizing the supply structure. It is a strategic fulcrum for reshaping the endogenous driving force of economic growth and promoting a high-level dynamic balance and benign interaction between supply and demand.

“投资于人”对释放消费潜能、提升投资效率、优化供给结构都能发挥重要的撬动作用，是重塑经济增长内生动力、促进供需实现高水平动态平衡和良性互动的战略支点。

“Investment in people” is a breakthrough point for releasing consumption potential. China’s consumption structure has undergone a profound transformation from subsistence consumption to developmental consumption. Subsistence consumption, which once focused on meeting basic needs for food and clothing and basic living requirements, is no longer the dominant force in consumption; on the contrary, developmental consumption such as education, healthcare, culture, tourism, housing, and insurance has gradually become a new consumption hotspot, with an increasingly prominent role in promoting consumption growth. A notable feature of developmental consumption is that it transcends individual consumption patterns, possessing significant public attributes and long-cycle characteristics, and is highly dependent on public services and social investment. For example, the advancement of education requires high-quality educational resources and teaching staff; the improvement of healthcare security relies on a sound medical system, requiring substantial government and social investment. “Investment in people” places greater emphasis on serving the people’s wellbeing, supporting the expansion of employment, promoting increases in residents’ incomes and reductions in their burdens, and strengthening consumption incentives, which inherently aligns with the requirements of developmental consumption. Further increasing investment in key areas such as education, healthcare, elderly care, and affordable housing, and raising the level of social security and the quality of basic public services, will help promote a benign interaction between government services, social investment, and residents’ consumption, fully releasing China’s huge potential for developmental consumption.

“投资于人”是释放消费潜能的突破点。我国消费结构经历了从生存型消费向发展型消费升级的深刻变革。曾经以解决温饱、满足基础生活需求为主的生存型消费已不再是消费的主导力量；相反，教育、医疗、文化、旅游、住房、保险等发展型消费逐渐成为新的消费热点，对消费增长的促进作用日益凸显。发展型消费的一个显著特征是超越了个体消费方式，具有显著的公共属性和长周期特征，高度依赖公共服务和社会投资。例如，教育事业的推进需要优质的教育资源和师资力量，医疗保障的完善依赖于健全的医疗体系，需要政府和社会的大力投入。“投资于人”更为强调服务于民生，支持扩大就业、促进居民增收减负、加强消费激励，与发展型消费的要求内在契合。进一步加大对教育、医疗、养老、保障性住房等关键领域的投入力度，提高社会保障水平和基本公共服务质量，有助于推动政府服务、社会投资与居民消费的良性互动，充分释放我国巨大的发展型消费潜能。

“Investment in people” is a focal point for improving investment efficiency. The diminishing marginal returns of traditional “thing” investment stand in stark contrast to the multiplier effect of “people” investment. Redirecting some inefficient investment toward improving workers’ skills and accumulating human capital can not only alleviate structural unemployment but also promote the upgrading of industries to higher value-added segments, achieving the dual goals of “cost reduction” and “efficiency improvement.” At the same time, “investment in people” has significant social spillover effects. Supporting talent entrepreneurship and innovation can broaden channels for social mobility and ignite the enthusiasm of the whole society for hard work; improving lifelong education and skills training systems can enhance workers’ ability to withstand the risks of technological change and consolidate the foundation of social stability. According to statistics, each new entrepreneurial project can, on average, drive the employment of 5 to 8 people. Compared with traditional infrastructure and industrial investment, this type of investment does not require large-scale fiscal input but can stimulate broader economic and social vitality at a lower cost, making it a long-term strategy for improving investment efficiency.

“投资于人”是提升投资效率的着力点。传统“物”的投资边际收益递减与“人”的投资乘数效应形成鲜明对比。若将部分低效投资转移到劳动者技能提升和人力资本积累上，不仅能够缓解结构性失业，还可推动产业向价值链高端攀升，实现“降成本”与“提效率”的双重目标。同时，“投资于人”具有显著的社会溢出效应。支持人才创业创新，能够拓宽社会阶层流动通道，点燃全社会奋斗热情；完善终身教育和技能培训体系，可增强劳动者抵御技术变革风险的能力，夯实社会稳定根基。据统计，每新增1个创业项目，平均可带动5到8人就业。相较于传统基建和产业投资，这类投资无需大规模财政投入，却能以更低的成本激发更大范围的经济社会活力，是提升投资效率的长效之策。

“Investment in people” is a supporting point for optimizing the supply structure. There is a strong correlation between human capital accumulation and technological innovation. A relaxed entrepreneurial environment and talent incentive mechanisms can stimulate a “creative destruction” effect, allowing outstanding innovators and entrepreneurs to stand out through independent exploration, enabling specialized and new enterprises [1]1 “Specialized and new enterprises” (专精特新企业) refers to small and medium-sized enterprises that are specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative, a category promoted by the Chinese government to encourage high-quality development. to emerge in market competition, and allowing products that meet demand to gain market favor through industrial upgrading and technological iteration. On a deeper level, compared with traditional infrastructure and industrial investment, “investment in people” has a significant synergistic effect on both supply and demand upgrading. Currently, China’s skilled talent gap exceeds 20 million, and the employment rate of graduates from vocational colleges has remained high for many consecutive years. Increasing the development of human resources and improving workers’ knowledge and skill levels can not only fill the talent gap in emerging industries but also promote high-quality employment and release residents’ consumption potential. When workers gain higher incomes through skill upgrading, their consumption needs will shift from subsistence to developmental, which in turn forces the supply side to improve quality and efficiency, forming a virtuous cycle of “human capital improvement—consumption upgrading—industrial upgrading.”

“投资于人”是优化供给结构的支撑点。人力资本积累与技术创新存在强关联性。宽松的创业环境与人才激励机制能够激发“创造性破坏”效应，让优秀的创新创业者在自主探索中崭露头角，让专精特新企业在市场竞争中脱颖而出，让适应需求的产品在产业升级和技术迭代中获得市场青睐。从更深层次看，相较于传统基建和产业投资，“投资于人”具有显著的供给与需求协同升级效应。当前我国技能人才缺口超2000万，职业院校毕业生就业率连续多年保持高位。加大人力资源开发力度，提升劳动者知识技能水平，不仅可填补新兴产业人才缺口，更能促进高质量就业，释放居民消费潜力。当劳动者通过技能跃迁获得更高收入时，其消费需求将从生存型转向发展型，进而倒逼供给端提质增效，形成“人力资本提升—消费升级—产业升级”的良性闭环。

Establish the Strategic Position of “Investment in People” in Smoothing the National Economic Cycle

确立“投资于人”在畅通国民经济循环中的战略地位

At present, the systematic synergy between “thing” investment and “people” investment is relatively insufficient. In the traditional development model, “investment in things” drove economic growth through large-scale infrastructure and industrial investment, achieving significant results in areas such as infrastructure construction and industrial production, while also making the material foundation of people’s lives more solid and greatly improving living standards. However, with the improvement of new industrialization and new urbanization, the marginal benefits of material capital accumulation have begun to diminish. Excessive focus on “things” in investment will inevitably lead to prominent structural contradictions. On the one hand, insufficient supply of public services and lagging human capital accumulation lead to prominent structural problems, making it difficult to release consumption potential; on the other hand, inefficient investment leads to resource misallocation and increases debt risks.

当前，“物”的投资与“人”的投资系统协同相对不足。在传统发展模式中，“投资于物”通过大规模基建和产业投入驱动经济增长，在基础设施建设、工业生产等领域成果显著，也使人民生活物质基础更加雄厚、生活水平大幅提升。但随着新型工业化与新型城镇化水平的提升，物质资本积累的边际效益开始递减，投资过度注重于“物”必将导致结构性矛盾凸显。一方面，公共服务供给不足、人力资本积累滞后，导致结构性问题凸显，消费潜能难以释放；另一方面，低效投资导致资源错配，增加债务风险。

Factors such as knowledge, skills, and health have a multiplier effect on the improvement of total factor productivity. With the acceleration of technological iteration and industrial upgrading, the symbiotic relationship between population quality, people’s livelihood security, public services, and economic growth is becoming closer. For China today, the rise of developmental consumption, the improvement of investment efficiency, and the optimization of the supply structure all require the focus of investment to shift from “accumulation of things” to “development of people.” “Investment in people” has become a key variable in breaking the bottlenecks in the economic cycle.

知识、技能与健康等要素对全要素生产率提升具有乘数效应。伴随技术迭代与产业升级的加速，人口素质、民生保障、公共服务与经济增长的共生关系趋向更为紧密。对当下中国而言，发展型消费的崛起、投资效率的提升和供给结构的优化，都要求投资重心从“物的积累”转向“人的发展”，“投资于人”成为破解经济循环梗阻的关键变量。

At present, some localities in China have already taken solid steps in this regard. For example, Hangzhou City adheres to the concept of “long-termism,” fully leveraging the leading role of universities and research institutions. Since 2020 alone, it has attracted 2.08 million college students under the age of 35 to pursue their dreams in Hangzhou. Through long-term stable investment and policy support, Hangzhou “patiently accompanies” the growth of talent and enterprises, promoting the deep integration of the “education chain—talent chain—innovation chain—industrial chain,” forming a powerful “talent attraction field” and “innovation ecosystem field.” Excellent enterprises such as the “Six Little Dragons” [2]2 “Six Little Dragons” (六小龙) refers to a group of six prominent technology startups based in Hangzhou, including companies like DeepSeek and Unitree Robotics, which have gained national and international attention for their innovations. have thrived in this ecosystem. Another example is Changsha City, which, with its model of “lively life + hardcore support,” has carved out a unique path of “investment in people.” As a provincial capital in central China, Changsha has a lower cost of living and higher levels of education and healthcare. In recent years, Changsha has focused on maintaining and developing the advantages of low-cost entrepreneurship, creating an urban form where “you can both work hard and live well,” and continuously polishing the background of a “youth-friendly development city.” On this basis, Changsha is accelerating the construction of a “global R&D hub city” centered on young people, attracting and cultivating high-level innovation platforms, integrating resources from all sides, forming a hundred-billion-scale investment support system, and helping young talents achieve breakthroughs in frontier fields, making Changsha a hotbed for youth to pursue dreams and for technological innovation to take off.

当前，我国一些地方在这方面已经迈出坚实步伐。如杭州市秉持“长期主义”理念，充分发挥高校与科研机构的引领作用，仅2020年以来，便吸引了208万35岁以下大学生逐梦杭州。通过长期稳定的投入与政策支持，杭州“耐心陪跑”人才与企业成长，推动“教育链—人才链—创新链—产业链”深度融合，形成了强大的“人才引力场”与“创新生态场”，“六小龙”等优秀企业正是在这样的生态中茁壮成长。又如长沙市以“烟火生活+硬核支持”的模式，走出了一条独具特色的“投资于人”之路。作为中部省会城市，长沙生活成本较低、教育医疗水平较高。近年来，长沙着力保持和发展低成本创业优势，打造“既能奋斗，又好生活”的城市形态，持续擦亮“青年友好型发展城市”底色。以此为基础，长沙加快建设以年轻人为主体的“全球研发中心城市”，引育高水平创新平台，整合各方资源，形成千亿规模的投资支持体系，助力青年人才在前沿领域实现突破，让长沙成为青年逐梦、科创腾飞的热土。

The practical experience of these localities shows that the shift from “demographic dividend” to “talent dividend,” from “accumulation of things” to “development of people,” is not only an objective requirement of economic laws but also a profound practice of the people-centered development thought. To smooth the national economic cycle, it is necessary to reconstruct the investment logic with systematic thinking, break the path dependence and policy inertia of “valuing things over people” with reform courage, elevate “investment in people” to a strategic fulcrum for development, reshape the investment pattern with “investment in people” as the focus, promote the two-way interaction between consumption upgrading and supply optimization, reshape the endogenous driving force of economic growth, and unblock the bottlenecks in the national economic cycle.

这些地方的实践经验表明，从“人口红利”到“人才红利”、从“物的积累”到“人的发展”，这一转向不仅是经济规律的客观要求，更是坚持以人民为中心的发展思想的深刻实践。畅通国民经济循环，需要以系统思维重塑投资逻辑，以改革勇气打破“重物轻人”的路径依赖与政策惯性，将“投资于人”上升为发展的战略支点，以“投资于人”为重点重塑投资格局，推动消费升级与供给优化双向互动，重塑经济增长内生动力，打通国民经济循环堵点。

Systematically Restructuring the Investment Pattern of Dynamic Coordination between "People" and "Things"

系统重构“人”与“物”动态协同的投资格局

"Investing in things" and "investing in people" form an organic whole that complements each other. Emphasizing "investing in people" does not negate "investing in things"; rather, it aims to drive dynamic coordination between the two with "people" as the core, closely combining "investing in things" with "investing in people," so that the service efficiency of "things" deeply aligns with the development needs of "people."

“投资于物”和“投资于人”是相辅相成的有机整体，强调“投资于人”并非否定“投资于物”，而是要以“人”为核心推动二者动态协同，把“投资于物”同“投资于人”紧密结合起来，使“物”的服务效能提升与“人”的发展需求深度契合。

Optimize the investment structure, shifting investment from scale-driven to efficiency-prioritized. This is a key measure for promoting the smooth circulation of the national economy. In the realm of "things," the principle of maintaining some while suppressing others, and taking some while discarding others, should be upheld. The negative list management [3]3 The negative list management system specifies sectors and industries where investment is prohibited or restricted, with all other areas open to investment by default. should be strictly implemented, reducing projects with high energy consumption and high pollution, focusing on new infrastructure and projects to shore up weaknesses in people's livelihoods, and steering investment toward new infrastructure construction, pollution control, ecological construction, and the renovation of old urban residential communities. At the same time, increase investment in strategic emerging industries and the "four new economy" [4]4 The "four new economy" refers to new technologies, new industries, new business forms, and new models. sectors to promote industrial transformation and upgrading. In the realm of "people," based on the present and with an eye to the long term, expand the supply of inclusive education, explore institutional innovations such as "family education savings accounts"; guide social capital into public service areas such as elderly care and childcare through policies like tax incentives, broadening effective pathways to solve economic and social problems.

优化投资结构，推动投资从规模驱动转向效能优先。这是促进国民经济循环畅通的关键举措。在“物”的领域，应坚持有保有压、有取有舍的原则，严格执行负面清单管理，压减高耗能、高污染项目，聚焦新基建与民生补短板工程，推进投资向新型基础设施建设、污染治理、生态建设、城市老旧小区改造等民生工程倾斜；同时，加大对战略性新兴产业和“四新经济”领域的投入，推动产业转型升级。在“人”的领域，立足当前、着眼长远，扩大普惠性教育供给，探索“家庭教育储蓄账户”等制度创新；通过税收优惠等政策引导社会资本进入养老、托育等公共服务领域，拓宽解决经济社会问题的有效途径。

Strengthen institutional supply, building a long-term mechanism for human capital investment. Incorporate "investing in people" into the macroeconomic policy "toolkit," fully leveraging the macroeconomic regulatory role of policies on education, health, social security, and income distribution, and promoting the comprehensive development of human capital with systematic thinking. To this end, key indicators such as "proportion of skilled personnel," "basic medical insurance reimbursement rate," and "proportion of human capital investment" could be explored and established, and incorporated into the assessment system for local governments, using assessment to force the optimization of fiscal expenditure structures and ensure precise allocation of resources to the most needed areas. A lifelong vocational skills training system with Chinese characteristics should be established. Through the joint participation of the government, enterprises, social organizations, and all citizens, promote the lifelong vocational education, providing rich training programs and career development support for vocational groups at different stages, creating a social culture that respects vocational education, and enhancing workers' resilience in coping with technological change.

强化制度供给，构建人力资本投资的长效机制。将“投资于人”纳入宏观经济政策“工具箱”，充分发挥教育、健康、社会保障、收入分配等政策的宏观调控作用，以系统性思维推动人力资本的全面发展。为此，可探索设置“技能人才占比”“基本医保报销比例”“人力资本投资占比”等关键指标，并将其纳入地方政府考核体系，以考核倒逼财政支出结构优化，确保资源向最需要的领域精准投放。应建立具有中国特色的终身职业技能培训体系，通过政府、企业、社团和全体公民的共同参与，推动职业教育终身化，为不同阶段的职业人群提供丰富的培训项目和职业发展支持，营造全社会尊重职业教育的文化氛围，增强劳动者应对技术变革的韧性。

Promote systemic integration, achieving mutual promotion and joint progress between investment in "things" and investment in "people." In the process of advancing new-type urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, centering on integrated urban-rural development, coordinate the advancement of infrastructure construction in transportation, energy, water conservancy, etc., while simultaneously supporting public service facilities in education, healthcare, culture, etc., ensuring that infrastructure construction and public service provision complement each other, injecting lasting momentum into regional development, so that investment in "things" directly serves the development needs of "people." In the construction of the "two major" [5]5 The "two major" refers to major national strategies and major infrastructure construction projects. and the "two new" [6]6 The "two new" refers to new infrastructure and new urbanization construction., combine physical investment with human capital investment, project construction with livelihood guarantees, and capital input with supporting reforms. While increasing investment in major infrastructure and industrial projects, provide "people" support for industrial development through the optimization of public services such as education, training, and healthcare, enabling "things" and "people" to exert force in the same direction, move toward each other, achieve a win-win situation, and promote high-quality economic and social development.

推动系统集成，实现“物”的投资与“人”的投资互促共进。在推进新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴过程中，要围绕城乡一体化发展，统筹推进交通、能源、水利等基础设施建设，同时配套教育、医疗、文化等公共服务设施，确保基础设施建设与公共服务供给相辅相成，为区域发展注入持久动力，使“物”的投资直接服务于“人”的发展需求。在“两重”和“两新”建设中，把实物投资和人力资本投资结合起来、项目建设和民生保障结合起来、资金投入与配套改革结合起来，在加大对重大基础设施和产业项目投入的同时，通过教育、培训、医疗等公共服务的优化，为产业发展提供“人”的支持，让“物”和“人”同向发力、双向奔赴，实现双赢，推动经济社会高质量发展。

(Author: Wang Zanxin, specially appointed researcher of the Hunan Provincial Research Center for the Theoretical System of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, Director and Professor of the Economics Teaching and Research Department of the Hunan Provincial Party School [Hunan Academy of Governance])

（作者：王赞新，系湖南省中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心特约研究员，湖南省委党校〔湖南行政学院〕经济学教研部主任、教授）

Online Editor: Tongxin

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