The Current State and Prospects of the Latin American Left

Beginning with Hugo Chávez’s assumption of power in Venezuela in 1999, left-wing political parties in Latin America rose one after another, winning successive general elections and setting off a wave of the “Pink Tide.” At the 2005 World Social Forum, Hugo Chávez declared that the US-proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas plan had ultimately collapsed. The territorial area of countries governed by left-wing parties in Latin America once reached 71.8% of the region, and their population accounted for 53.8% of the region’s total. From 2015 to the present, the political landscape of Latin America has rapidly transitioned from a phase of “the left retreats and the right advances” to one of “the left and the right each advance and retreat” and “co-governance by left and right.” Because Brazil is still governed by the right-wing Jair Bolsonaro, the right wing still holds an advantage in the political landscape of the Latin American region. However, for the first time in 40 years, the left is governing in Mexico, expanding into space that was not reached even at the height of the “Pink Tide.” The COVID-19 pandemic since 2020 has prompted Latin American people to reflect on neoliberal policies, which is conducive to the left accumulating strength and expanding its space. However, the current left-wing forces in Latin America are severely divided, facing important issues such as strengthening unity and continuing to explore alternatives to neoliberalism after taking office.

从1999年乌戈·查韦斯（Hugo Chávez）在委内瑞拉执政开始，拉美左翼政党纷纷崛起，相继在大选中获胜，掀起一波“粉红色浪潮”。在2005年的世界社会论坛上，乌戈·查韦斯宣布美国提出的美洲自由贸易区计划最终流产。拉美左翼政党执政国家的领土面积一度达到拉美地区的71.8%，人口占拉美地区总人口的53.8%。2015年至今，拉美政治格局从“左退右进”迅速过渡到“左右互有进退”和“左右共治”的阶段。由于巴西仍然由右翼的雅伊尔·博索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）执政，拉美地区的政治格局中右翼仍然拥有优势，但左翼40年来首度在墨西哥执政，拓展了“粉红色浪潮”高潮时都未曾到达的空间。2020年以来的新冠肺炎疫情大流行促使拉美民众反思新自由主义政策，有利于左翼积聚力量、拓展空间。但目前拉美左翼力量分化严重，面临加强团结、执政后继续探索新自由主义替代方案等重要问题。

I. The Latin American Political Landscape: From “the Left Retreats and the Right Advances” to “Co-governance by Left and Right”

一、拉美政治格局从“左退右进”到“左右共治”

Even during the surging development period of the “Pink Tide” before 2015, the struggle between the left and right in Latin America never ceased; rather, it ran through the entire process of the tide’s rise, development, and decline, and continues to this day. Even at the high tide of left-wing development, the right wing continuously launched attacks against the left, forming a tug-of-war in some countries. In 2001, traditional right-wing forces in Venezuela launched massive demonstrations against the Chávez government’s reform plans, causing social unrest, a severe decline in oil production, and economic recession. On April 12, 2002, the Venezuelan opposition also instigated a coup, kidnapping Chávez and holding him on a small island. The United States participated in and promoted the occurrence of the coup; it was only with the support of the Venezuelan Air Force that Chávez returned to the Presidential Palace three days later and continued to govern. In 2009, the left-wing government of José Manuel Zelaya in Honduras sought re-election and promoted a referendum, but the Supreme Court, influenced by US-promoted judicial reforms, ruled the referendum invalid. Right-wing military personnel supported the Supreme Court’s decision, and Zelaya was forced into exile abroad. In 2012, the right wing in Paraguay launched a “parliamentary coup,” accusing left-wing President Fernando Lugo, who had helped landless peasants obtain land, of mishandling a case of illegal land occupation by peasants. Lugo was impeached and removed from office, and the right-wing Colorado Party, which had governed continuously for 61 years, returned to power and remains in office to this day.

即使在2015年前“粉红色浪潮”风起云涌的发展时期，拉美左右翼的斗争也没有停止过，而是贯穿了浪潮兴起、发展和衰退的全过程，至今仍在继续。即使在左翼发展的高潮时期，右翼也不断向左翼发起进攻，在一些国家形成拉锯战。2001年，委内瑞拉传统右翼势力发动了声势浩大的示威游行，反对查韦斯政府的改革计划，造成社会动荡、石油产量严重下滑和经济衰退。2002年4月12日，委内瑞拉反对派还策动了政变，将查韦斯劫持到一个小岛上。美国参与和推动了政变的发生，只是在委内瑞拉空军的支持下，查韦斯才在三天后重返总统府，继续执政。2009年，洪都拉斯左翼何塞·曼努埃尔·塞拉亚（José Manuel Zelaya）政府谋求连任，推动全民公决，但受美国推动的司法改革影响的最高法院却裁定公决无效，右翼军人支持最高法院的决定，塞拉亚被迫流亡海外。2012年，巴拉圭右翼发动“议会政变”，指控曾帮助无地农民获取土地的左翼总统费尔南多·卢戈(Fernando Lugo)在一桩农民非法占地案中处置不当，卢戈被弹劾下台，曾经连续执政61年的右翼红党再度上台执政至今。

With the defeat of Argentina’s left-wing Victory Front of the Justice Party in the 2015 general election and the loss of the Venezuelan left-wing ruling party—the United Socialist Party of Venezuela—in the parliamentary elections, the Latin American political landscape began to show a trend of “the left retreats and the right advances.” In 2016, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff of the Workers’ Party was impeached and removed from office, forming a new cabinet dominated by the center-right. In December 2017, the left-wing coalition in Chile lost the election, and the center-right Sebastián Piñera was elected president. At this point, the right wing had gained a dominant position in the Latin American political landscape. In August 2017, right-wing governing countries in Latin America such as Peru and Brazil, along with Canada, formed the Lima Group to pressure Venezuela. After Nicolás Maduro was re-elected President of Venezuela in 2018, the United States and the Lima Group refused to recognize the election results and demanded a new election. The Southern Common Market, dominated by right-wing countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, suspended Venezuela’s membership on the grounds of “democratic clauses”; it was only due to the insistence of left-wing governing Uruguay that the implementation of the resolution was delayed by three months. At that time, the top five economies in Latin America—Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, and Chile—all achieved right-wing governance. The political pendulum in Latin America swung rapidly to the right, and Cuba and Venezuela faced unprecedented pressure in the international environment. Former Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castañeda published an article claiming that “the Latin American left is dead.”

随着2015年阿根廷左翼正义党胜利阵线在大选中落败和委内瑞拉左翼执政党——委内瑞拉社会主义统一党在议会选举中失利，拉美政治格局开始呈现“左退右进”态势。2016年，巴西劳工党的迪尔玛·罗塞夫（Dilma Rousseff）总统被弹劾下台，组成了以中右翼为主的新内阁；2017年12月，智利左翼联盟在选举中落败，中右翼的塞瓦斯蒂安·皮涅拉（Sebastián Piera）当选总统。至此，右翼在拉美政治格局中占据了优势地位。2017年8月，秘鲁、巴西等拉美右翼执政的国家和加拿大组成利马集团向委内瑞拉施压，2018年尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）再次当选委内瑞拉总统后，美国和利马集团不承认选举结果，要求重新选举。巴西、阿根廷和巴拉圭等右翼国家主导的南方共同市场以“民主化条款”为由中止了委内瑞拉的会员国资格，只是因为左翼执政国家乌拉圭的坚持才将决议的生效时间推迟了三个月。当时，拉美前五大经济体——巴西、墨西哥、阿根廷、哥伦比亚、智利都实现了右翼执政，拉美的政治钟摆迅速向右，古巴、委内瑞拉面临国际环境方面前所未有的压力。墨西哥前外交部部长豪尔赫·卡斯塔内达（Jorge Castaeda）发表文章称“拉美左翼已经死亡”。

However, the situation of “the left retreats and the right advances” in the Latin American political landscape lasted only three years (2015–2018) before new changes favorable to the left began to occur. The right wing in Latin America, which had only just risen after 2015, soon encountered new failures. In particular, right-wing presidents such as Sebastián Piñera of Chile, Iván Duque Márquez of Colombia, and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil were undergoing tests from social protests and election campaigns. In May 2018, center-left Carlos Alvarado won the general election in Costa Rica. In July of the same year, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, candidate of Mexico’s left-wing National Regeneration Movement, was elected president. This party leaped to become the largest party in Mexico, breaking the long-standing political pattern of three major parties—the Party of the Democratic Revolution, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, and the National Action Party—representing the left, center, and right. It was also the first time in 40 years that a left-wing party governed Mexico. In October 2019, Alberto Fernández, candidate of Argentina’s left-wing Justice Party, won the general election, and the left returned to power after a four-year hiatus. In October 2020, just one year after former Bolivian President Evo Morales had gone into exile abroad following accusations of election manipulation by the Organization of American States and others, the “Movement Toward Socialism” made a strong comeback, securing victory in the first round of a “transparent election.” Its candidates, Luis Arce, Minister of Economy and Public Finance during the Morales government, and David Choquehuanca, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, were elected President and Vice President respectively. The left returned to power in Bolivia, while Morales returned from Argentina and continued to serve as the party’s chairman. During his tenure as Minister of Economy in the Morales government, Arce had organized and implemented the country’s land distribution and nationalization policies. After taking office on November 8, 2020, Arce pledged to make poverty reduction an important task. In Chile’s October 2020 referendum, 78% of voters supported amending the Pinochet-era constitution to include provisions on increasing health security, improving education, and promoting equality. In December 2020, the left-wing ruling party in Venezuela also won more than a two-thirds majority in the parliamentary elections, while the opposition was in a state of disintegration. All of this indicates that the strength of the left is further resurging and growing.

然而，拉美政治格局“左退右进”的形势只延续了三年（2015~2018年）就开始发生了有利于左翼的新变化。在2015年以后才刚刚崛起的拉美右翼很快就遭遇了新的失败，尤其是智利的塞瓦斯蒂安·皮涅拉、哥伦比亚的伊万·杜克·马克斯（Iván Duque Márquez）、巴西的雅伊尔·博索纳罗等右翼总统正在经历着社会抗议和竞选运动的考验。2018年5月，中左翼卡洛斯·阿尔瓦拉多（Carlos Alvarado）在哥斯达黎加大选中获胜。同年7月，墨西哥左翼国家复兴运动党候选人安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔（Andrés Manuel López Obrador）当选总统，该党一跃成为墨西哥最大的政党，打破了该国长期存在的民主革命党、革命制度党和国家行动党左、中、右三大党鼎立的政治格局，也是墨西哥左翼政党40年来首次执政。2019年10月，阿根廷左翼正义党候选人阿尔韦托·费尔南德斯（Alberto Fernández）在大选中获胜，左翼时隔4年再度执政。2020年10月，在玻利维亚前总统莫拉莱斯（Evo Morales）因被美洲国家组织等指控操纵选举而流亡国外仅仅一年后，“争取社会主义运动”便强势回归，在“透明的大选”中第一轮就锁定胜局，其候选人、莫拉莱斯政府时期的经济和公共财政部长路易斯·阿尔塞（Luis Arce）和外交部部长戴维·乔克万卡（David Choquehuanca）分别当选总统和副总统，左翼重新在玻利维亚执政，莫拉莱斯则从阿根廷回国，继续担任执政党的主席。阿尔塞在莫拉莱斯政府任经济部长期间曾组织实施了国家的土地分配和国有化政策。2020年11月8日就职后，阿尔塞承诺把减贫作为重要任务。在智利2020年10月全民公决中，78%的民众投票赞成修改皮诺切特时期的宪法，增加卫生健康保障、提升教育和促进平等等方面的内容。2020年12月，委内瑞拉左翼执政党在议会选举中也获得了2/3以上多数，而反对派处于分崩离析状态。这些都说明左翼的力量在进一步回潮和壮大。

II. The COVID-19 Pandemic Is Conducive to the Left Continuing to Expand Its Space

二、新冠肺炎疫情大流行有利于左翼力量继续拓展空间

First, the COVID-19 pandemic continued to spread in Latin America in 2021, intensifying public concern over issues such as economic recession, poverty, corruption, insecurity, and lack of job opportunities. Governments across Latin America not only failed to effectively address these problems but also saw the negative effects of right-wing policies, including cuts to health-sector spending, become fully apparent under pandemic conditions, exacerbating social inequality. At the same time, due to the pandemic’s impact, fiscal revenues in Latin American countries fell sharply, and they faced significant inflationary risks, yet they still had to implement expansionary fiscal policies, causing both public and external debt to rise. The public debt ratio increased from 57% in 2019 to 67% in 2020, with Brazil, Argentina, and El Salvador reaching as high as 101.4%, 96.7%, and 89%, respectively. Argentina experienced its ninth sovereign debt default in history in May 2020, and the risk of a debt crisis is accumulating, with a possible concentrated eruption in the next two years. Under these circumstances, for the Latin American economy to achieve recovery growth in the post-pandemic era, large-scale vaccination is essential. However, as of May 2021, no Latin American country had developed any vaccine; vaccines remained a scarce commodity. As of July 2021, only Cuba among Latin American countries had advanced vaccine development to Phase III clinical trials and begun vaccination, but its severe epidemic situation and limited production capacity made it difficult to supply vaccines to other countries. Therefore, how to obtain vaccines and achieve equitable distribution has become a major task for Latin American countries. Due to inadequate medical infrastructure in the region, many governments have deployed armed forces to ensure vaccine delivery. Every country in the region has sought deals with pharmaceutical developers to secure vaccine allocations and has joined the “COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility” created by the World Health Organization (which aims to provide sufficient doses for 20% of the global population and currently includes 190 participating countries). According to data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, the number of people living in poverty and extreme poverty in Latin America increased by 45.4 million and 28.5 million, respectively, in 2020, bringing the total impoverished population to 231 million, or 37.7% of the total population.

第一，2021年新冠肺炎疫情在拉美继续蔓延，加剧了民众对经济衰退、贫困、腐败、不安全和缺乏工作机会等问题的关切。拉美各国政府不仅没能有效地应对上述问题，而且包括减少卫生部门支出在内的右翼政策在疫情背景下负面作用尽显，社会不平等现象加剧。同时，受疫情冲击，拉美国家的财政税收大幅减少、面临大幅度通货膨胀风险，却还要实施积极的财政政策，造成公共债务和外债双升，公共债务比例从2019年的57%上升到2020年的67%，巴西、阿根廷和萨尔瓦多更是高达101.4%、96.7%和89%，阿根廷在2020年5月发生了史上第9次主权债务违约，债务危机的风险在积聚，未来两年可能出现集中释放。在这种情况下，拉美经济要在后疫情时代实现恢复性增长，就必须实现大规模的疫苗接种。但截至2021年5月，拉美国家尚未研制出任何一款疫苗，疫苗仍然属于稀缺品截至2021年7月，拉美国家中只有古巴的疫苗研制达到第三期临床试验并开始接种，但其严重的疫情和受限的产能很难为其他国家提供疫苗。。因此，如何获得疫苗并实现疫苗的公平分配就成为当前拉美国家面临的重要任务。由于拉美国家医疗基础设施不足，很多国家的政府动用武装部队保障疫苗的交付，该区域每个国家都寻求与制药企业的开发人员交易以获取疫苗分配，并加入了由世界卫生组织创建的“新冠疫苗实施计划”（该计划试图为全球20%的人口提供足够剂量的疫苗，目前已经有190个国家参与其中）。根据联合国拉美经济委员会的数据，2020年拉美国家的贫困人口和极端贫困人口分别增加4540万和2850万，贫困人口总数达到2.31亿，占总人口的37.7%。

Second, over the next two years, multiple Latin American countries will hold elections, and the left may continue to expand its space. The pandemic in 2020 intensified this trend, as Latin American publics began to reflect on the various shortcomings of right-wing neoliberalism and once again seek a role for government and society in economic development and distribution. This is conducive to the growth of left-wing forces and further expansion of their space. In 2021, countries in the region such as Ecuador (February), Peru (April), and Chile (November) held general elections, while Colombia, Brazil, and Venezuela will hold general elections in 2022. Given the performance of Brazil’s President Bolsonaro, Colombia’s President Duque, and Chile’s President Piñera before and during the pandemic, it is expected that they will find it difficult to stand for re-election or win, objectively creating conditions for the left to develop in these countries.

第二，未来两年，拉美多国将举行选举，左翼有可能继续拓展空间。2020年的疫情加剧了这一趋势，拉美民众开始反思右翼新自由主义的种种弊端，再次寻求政府和社会在经济发展和分配中的作用，这有利于左翼力量的发展和进一步拓展空间。2021年，拉美地区的厄瓜多尔（2月）、秘鲁（4月）、智利（11月）等国家举行大选，2022年哥伦比亚、巴西、委内瑞拉等国将举行大选。鉴于巴西的博索纳罗总统、哥伦比亚的杜克总统和智利的皮涅拉总统在疫情前后的表现，预计难以继续参选总统或在大选中获胜，客观上为左翼在上述国家的发展创造了条件。

In Ecuador, the first round of the presidential election was held on February 7, 2021. Andrés Arauz, candidate of the left-wing “Union for Hope” alliance, received 32.7% of the vote, while conservative “Creating Opportunities” movement candidate Guillermo Lasso came second with 19.7%. Yaku Pérez, candidate of the radical left indigenous organization—the Pachakutik Plurinational Unity Movement—and Xavier Hervas, candidate of the Democratic Left Party, placed third and fourth, respectively, each with over 15% of the vote. In the second round held on April 11, 2021, Lasso ultimately reversed the outcome and won the presidency with a margin of 5.08% of the vote. Notably, among the top four candidates in the first round of Ecuador’s presidential election, three were left-wing, but it was the right-wing Lasso who achieved a comeback and won the presidency.

在厄瓜多尔，2021年2月7日举行首轮总统选举，左翼“希望联盟”候选人安德烈斯·阿劳斯（AndrésArauz）获得32.7%的选票，保守派“创造机会运动”候选人吉列尔莫·拉索（GuillermoLasso）得票率为19.7%，位居第二。激进左翼土著人组织——帕查库蒂克多民族统一运动候选人亚库·佩雷斯（Yaku Pérez）和民主左翼党的候选人哈维尔·艾瓦斯（Xavier Hervas）分列第三和第四位，得票率都在15%以上。在2021年4月11日举行的第二轮选举中，拉索最终以508%的得票优势逆转当选总统。值得注意的是，在厄瓜多尔参加首轮总统选举的得票率居前四的候选人中，有三位是左翼，但最后却是右翼的拉索实现逆转当选总统。

In Brazil, on March 8, 2021, Federal Supreme Court Justice Edson Fachin ruled that the 13th Federal Court of Curitiba, which had previously convicted former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on corruption charges in 2018, lacked jurisdiction and that the case should be transferred to a court in Brasília. In mid-April, the Supreme Court voted to uphold Fachin’s ruling. With this, Lula’s political rights were restored, and he became eligible to run in the October 2022 presidential election. Although the Brazilian left has no shortage of promising younger candidates, Lula’s political legacy is irreplaceable; his charisma, political integration skills, and pragmatic policies remain highly attractive. Against the backdrop of the persistently sluggish economy and uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic under the current Bolsonaro administration, Lula’s candidacy is more likely to evoke voters’ memories of economic prosperity during his tenure, which clearly favors the Workers’ Party and the broader Brazilian left in their bid to stage a comeback and regain power.

在巴西，2021年3月8日，联邦最高法院法官埃德松·法欣(Edson Fachin)认定曾在2018年对前总统卢拉·达席尔瓦(Lula da Silva)的贪腐案作出判决的库里蒂巴第13联邦法庭缺乏管辖权，应转交巴西利亚的法院审理。4月中旬，最高法院投票表决，维持法欣的裁决。至此，卢拉恢复了政治权利，获得参加2022年10月总统选举的资格。虽然巴西左翼不乏年轻的优秀候选人，但卢拉的政治遗产无可替代，其领袖魅力、政治整合力和实用的政策依然具有强大的吸引力。在当前博索纳罗政府任内持续低迷的经济状况和失控的新冠肺炎疫情的阴影下，卢拉的参选更容易唤起选民对其任期内经济繁荣的回忆，这显然有利于劳工党和整个巴西左翼卷土重来，重获执政地位。

In Peru, the left achieved a historic victory in the presidential election. The presidential and congressional elections were held on April 11, 2021. The presidential election produced a surprise: Pedro Castillo, a 52-year-old primary school teacher and one of the leaders of the teachers’ union, representing the left-wing Free Peru party, who had consistently trailed in opinion polls, and Keiko Fujimori, candidate of the right-wing Popular Force party, came first and second with 18.92% and 13.25% of the vote, respectively, advancing to the second round held on June 6. Hernán de Soto, a prominent economist and candidate of the right-wing National Progress party, received 11.9% of the vote. Verónika Mendoza, who had been renominated as the presidential candidate of the left-wing “Together for Peru” coalition amid a severe institutional crisis and had been considered a strong contender, was eliminated in the first round. In the second round on June 6, Castillo ultimately defeated Fujimori to win the presidency with a margin of 0.25% of the vote.

在秘鲁，左翼在总统选举中取得历史性胜利。2021年4月11日举行总统和国会选举，其中总统选举爆出冷门，最初民调一直落后的52岁的小学教师、教师工会领导人之一的左翼自由秘鲁党候选人佩德罗·卡斯蒂略（Pedro Castillo）和右翼人民力量党候选人藤森庆子（KeikoFujimori）的得票位居前两位，分别为18.92%和13.25%,进入6月6日举行的第二轮总统选举。右翼国家前进党候选人、著名经济学家埃尔南·德索托（Hernan de Soto）的得票率为11.9%。呼声较高的、在严重的体制危机中被再度提名为左翼“共同为了秘鲁”总统候选人的维罗尼卡·门多萨（Verónika Mendoza）在首轮选举中便名落孙山。在6月6日举行第二轮选举中，卡斯蒂略最终凭借0.25%的得票率优势战胜藤森庆子当选总统。

In Chile, elections for the Constitutional Convention and local positions were held in May 2021. In the election for Constitutional Convention members, the right-wing governing coalition “Chile Vamos” won only 38 of 155 seats, or 21%; independents won 54 seats, or 34.97%; “Apruebo Dignidad” won 18.04%; “Lista del Apruebo” won 15.1%; and indigenous representatives won 17 seats. In the local elections, Chilean Communist Party member Iraci Hasler was elected mayor of the capital, Santiago, marking the first time in history that a Chilean Communist Party member has been elected mayor of the capital. Chile will hold general elections in November 2021, along with approval of the new constitution drafted by the Constitutional Convention and the new parliament. Since the massive popular protests in 2019, Chile’s market-oriented economic model, in place since Pinochet, has been under challenge, with the public demanding a greater role for the state in guaranteeing health, education, and pensions. Since President Piñera, from the right, cannot run for re-election, left-wing forces have an advantage in the general election. The outcome of this election will be very important for Chile’s policy direction.

在智利，2021年5月举行了制宪会议和地方选举。在制宪会议议员选举中，右翼执政联盟“我们前进”在155席中仅获38席，占21%；独立人士获54席，占34.97%；“同意尊严”占18.04%；“我同意”占15.1%；印第安人获17席。在地方选举中，智利共产党人伊拉茜（Iraci Hasler）当选为首都圣地亚哥市市长，这是智利共产党人在历史上首次当选首都市长。智利将于2021年11月举行大选，同时批准制宪会议起草的新宪法和新议会。自2019年发生大规模民众抗议以来，智利自皮诺切特以来的市场导向的经济模式一直受到挑战，民众要求国家在保障卫生、教育和养老金方面发挥更大的作用。由于来自右翼的皮涅拉总统不能再次参选总统，左翼力量在大选中享有优势。此次大选的结果对智利的政策走向非常重要。

In Mexico, left-wing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador still enjoys relatively high approval ratings. Seven of the 32 state governors are members of the ruling party, and the ruling party holds a majority in the legislatures of 19 states, giving it the majority needed to amend the federal constitution. In the midterm elections held on June 6, 2021, although the ruling National Regeneration Movement lost its two-thirds supermajority, it still holds a majority in both chambers of Congress. It does not need the support of major opposition parties such as the Institutional Revolutionary Party, the National Action Party, or the Party of the Democratic Revolution; it only needs to ally with small parties to pass legislation, so its governing environment remains favorable.

在墨西哥，左翼总统洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔（Andrés Manuel López Obrador）仍然拥有较高的支持率，32个州长中有7个由执政党人担任，执政党在19个州的立法机构占多数席位，拥有修改联邦宪法所需要的多数。在2021年6月6日举行的中期选举中，虽然执政党国家复兴运动党丧失了2/3的绝对优势地位，但仍然在参众两院占据多数，无需借助革命制度党、国家行动党和民主革命党等主要反对党的支持，只需联合一些小党即可通过法案，执政环境仍然有利。

Third, the 2020 U.S. presidential election was also an important event affecting the political landscape of Latin America. Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump to become U.S. president weakened the international environment in which the Trump administration had imposed “maximum pressure” on left-wing governments, favoring a renewed leftward swing of the political pendulum in Latin America.

第三，2020年美国大选也是影响拉美地区政治格局的重要事件。乔·拜登(Joe Biden)战胜唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）当选美国总统，弱化了特朗普政府对左翼政权进行“极限施压”的国际环境，有利于拉美的政治钟摆再次向左转。

III. Left-wing parties have strengthened their unity and coordination internationally, but are severely divided domestically

三、左翼政党加强了在国际上的团结协调，但在国内却分化严重

After more than a decade of governing, participating in government, and election campaigns, Latin American left-wing parties have undergone a process from united struggle to gradual fragmentation. Facing attacks from domestic and international right-wing forces, left-wing parties must unite as before to jointly meet challenges. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the upheavals in Eastern Europe, both the world socialist movement and the Latin American left-wing movement fell into a trough, but Latin American left-wing parties, including communist parties, successively launched the São Paulo Forum and the World Social Forum, criticizing capitalism and neoliberalism, exploring alternatives to the neoliberal development model, and pointing out that “another world is possible” [1]1 “Another world is possible” was the central slogan proposed by the World Social Forum, founded by the Latin American left in 2001. The forum was initially intended to rival the Davos World Economic Forum, opposing globalization, seeking alternatives to neoliberalism, and exploring the possibility of another world, including the exploration of socialism, leading some left-wing parties to propose that “a new socialist world is possible.”, enabling the Latin American left-wing movement to quickly emerge from the shadow of the Soviet collapse and Eastern European upheavals, supporting each other and successively winning elections, giving rise to a magnificent “pink tide.” In domestic policy, the left advocated for the state to play a role, even implementing nationalization; externally, it opposed U.S. hegemony and its proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas plan, advocated for regional integration, and successively established regional integration organizations such as the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America, the Union of South American Nations, and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, which excludes the United States and Canada but includes all Latin American countries. The left-wing governing cycle greatly advanced the process of Latin American countries uniting and strengthening themselves, and promoted relations between Latin America and Asia and Africa.

经过十多年的执政、参政和竞选运动，拉美左翼政党经历了从团结奋斗到逐渐分化的过程，面对国内外右翼势力的进攻，左翼政党必须像以前一样团结起来共同应对挑战。苏联解体、东欧剧变后，世界社会主义运动和拉美左翼运动均陷入低潮，但包括共产党在内的拉美左翼政党相继发起了圣保罗论坛和世界社会论坛，批评资本主义和新自由主义，探讨新自由主义发展模式的替代方案，指出“另一个世界是可能的”“另一个世界是可能的”是2001年拉美左翼倡导成立的世界社会论坛提出的中心口号，最初是该论坛要与达沃斯世界经济论坛分庭抗礼，反对全球化，寻求替代新自由主义，探索另一个世界的可能性，包括对社会主义的探索，进而有左翼政党提出“一个社会主义的新世界是可能的”。，使得拉美左翼运动很快走出苏联解体、东欧剧变的阴霾，相互支持，纷纷在选举中获胜，掀起一波波澜壮阔的“粉红色浪潮”。在国内政策上，左翼主张发挥国家的作用甚至实行国有化；对外则反对美国霸权及其倡导的美洲自由贸易区计划，主张区域一体化，相继建立了美洲玻利瓦尔联盟、南美洲国家联盟以及排除美国和加拿大、但包括所有拉美国家的“拉美和加勒比国家共同体”等区域一体化组织。左翼执政周期大大推进了拉美国家团结自强的进程，推动了拉美和亚洲、非洲的关系。

Internationally, in the face of the new situation of right-wing attacks and alliances, left-wing unity and coordination have also made new progress. Election observation by the Organization of American States has always been an important way for the right wing to accuse left-wing parties and candidates in the name of democracy. In the October 2019 Bolivian election, the OAS deemed that the ruling party, the Movement Toward Socialism, had committed fraud. Amid large-scale protest waves in Bolivia and the military and police defecting to the right, President Evo Morales, who had already declared victory, was forced to resign and go into exile. After the new left-wing president, Luis Arce, took office in November 2020, Bolivia restored diplomatic relations with Cuba, Iran, and Venezuela, which had been severed by the interim government of the right-wing Jeanine Áñez, and called on the OAS to correct its mistakes and re-audit the 2019 Bolivian election. The Movement Toward Socialism is one of the most active parties in the Puebla Group. This organization is a regional left-wing coordination body reorganized by left-wing parties from 14 Latin American countries. It has established a dedicated election observation department, hoping to counter and replace the OAS’s function in this regard. Arce and the Movement Toward Socialism’s first task after coming to power was to provide financial and ideological support to the Puebla Group, supporting left-wing parties in the 2021 elections in Chile, Ecuador, and Peru. If left-wing parties win the November 2021 Chilean general election, Bolivia looks forward to renewing bilateral relations.

在国际上，面对右翼进攻与联合的新形势，左翼联合与协调也取得了新的进展。美洲国家组织的选举观察一直是右翼以民主之名指控左翼政党和候选人的重要方式。在2019年10月的玻利维亚选举中，美洲国家组织认为执政党“争取社会主义运动”舞弊，在玻利维亚国内发生大规模抗议浪潮和军队警察倒向右翼的情况下，已经宣布胜选的莫拉莱斯总统被迫宣布辞职，流亡国外。2020年11月新的左翼总统路易斯·阿尔塞就职后，玻利维亚恢复了被右翼珍妮娜·阿涅斯(Jeanine Aez)临时政府断绝的与古巴、伊朗和委内瑞拉的外交关系，呼吁美洲国家组织修正错误，重新审计2019年玻利维亚的选举。“争取社会主义运动”是普埃布拉集团最积极的政党之一。该组织是拉美地区14个国家的左翼政党重新组织的地区左翼协调组织，它成立了专门的选举观察部门，希望对抗和替代美洲国家组织在这方面的职能，阿尔塞和“争取社会主义运动”上台后第一个任务就是为普埃布拉集团提供资金和意识形态支持，支持2021年左翼政党在智利、厄瓜多尔和秘鲁的选举。如果左翼政党在2021年11月的智利大选中获胜，玻利维亚期待更新两国之间的关系。

At the behest of the United States, the right-wing Lima Group’s interference in the Venezuelan left-wing government has continuously intensified, demanding that Venezuela release political prisoners and “hold fair elections and restore constitutional order.” In August 2017, the Southern Common Market suspended Venezuela’s membership, citing that Venezuela had violated the member states’ democratic commitment clauses. Only at the request of Uruguay’s then-ruling Broad Front was the decision to suspend Venezuela delayed by three months. The rise of the Mexican left in 2018 changed the attitude toward the Maduro government in Venezuela, causing the Lima Group [2]2 The Lima Group was formed in August 2017 when Western Hemisphere countries met in Lima, Peru, to discuss the Venezuelan issue. It included 14 American countries such as Peru, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Canada, aiming to promote peaceful negotiations and mediation to resolve the internal conflict in Venezuela. The Maduro government in Venezuela criticized the group for seriously interfering in its internal affairs. In 2021, Argentina announced its withdrawal from the Lima Group., which had been encircling Venezuela internationally, to lose a key pillar. In October 2019, the candidate of Argentina’s left-wing Justicialist Party, Alberto Fernández, won the general election, forming a counterbalance to Brazil within the Southern Common Market. In March 2021, the Argentine government announced its withdrawal from the Lima Group [3]3 On March 24, 2021, the Argentine Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement, stating that the Lima Group had failed to achieve any substantive progress in helping Venezuela out of its predicament, and that the Argentine government could not accept certain positions taken by the Lima Group to involve the Venezuelan opposition. The Argentine government reiterated that the best way to help the Venezuelan people was to facilitate inclusive dialogue, rather than simply choosing to support one side.. In July 2021, Peru’s left-wing Pedro Castillo was elected president, and the new foreign minister, Héctor Béjar Rivera, announced a change in stance toward Venezuela, promoting the development of bilateral relations. This may signify the formal dissolution of the Lima Group.

在美国的授意下，右翼利马集团对委内瑞拉左翼政权的干涉不断加强，要求委内瑞拉释放政治犯，“举行公正的选举，恢复宪法秩序”。2017年8月，南方共同市场认为委内瑞拉违反了成员国民主承诺的条款，中止了委内瑞拉的成员国资格。只是在乌拉圭当时的执政党广泛阵线的要求下，中止委内瑞拉资格的决定才推迟了3个月。2018年墨西哥左翼的上台，改变了对委内瑞拉马杜罗政权的态度，使国际上围堵委内瑞拉的利马集团2017年8月，西半球国家因在利马召开有关委内瑞拉问题的会议而组成利马集团，其中包括秘鲁、墨西哥、阿根廷、巴西、哥伦比亚、加拿大等14个美洲国家，旨在推动解决委内瑞拉国内冲突的和平谈判和调停活动。委内瑞拉马杜罗政府曾批评该集团严重干涉其内政。2021年，阿根廷宣布退出利马集团。失去了关键支柱。2019年10月，阿根廷左翼正义党候选人费尔南德斯在大选中获胜，在南方共同市场与巴西形成分庭抗礼的态势。2021年3月，阿根廷政府宣布退出利马集团2021年3月24日，阿根廷外交部发布公告，称利马集团未能在帮助委内瑞拉走出困境方面取得任何实质性进展，阿政府也不能接受利马集团为了使委反对派参与其中而采取的某些立场。阿政府重申，帮助委内瑞拉人民的最佳方式是促成包容性的对话，而不是简单地选择支持某一方。。2021年7月，秘鲁左翼卡斯蒂略当选总统，新任外长赫克托·贝加尔·里维拉（HéctorBéjar Rivera）宣布改变对委内瑞拉的立场，促进双边关系的发展。这可能意味着利马集团宣告正式解体。

At the same time, left-wing forces in Latin America are severely divided within their respective countries.

与此同时，拉美左翼力量在各国内却分化严重。

First, new left-wing forces have emerged or risen, becoming competitors to the traditional left. In Chile, the student movement that arose in 2011 in protest against high higher education costs led to the formation of a new left. Its most famous leader, Camila Vallejo, was absorbed into the left-wing “New Majority Coalition” in 2014. Two other main leaders of the student movement, Jackson and Boric, not only remained outside the left-wing grand coalition, but Jackson’s Democratic Revolution Party and other organizations of the student movement existed as its opposition. In the 2017 general election, the Broad Front continued to consolidate its relationship with extra-parliamentary left-wing movements and parties, achieving a decisive victory in the city of Valparaíso by absorbing the Autonomist Movement led by former student leader Jorge Sharp. Sharp won 53.8% of the vote in the city, while the “New Majority Coalition” and the right-wing coalition received only 22.4% and 22.6%, respectively. However, at the national level, the left-wing majority coalition failed to unite, leading to its defeat in the December 2017 general election.

第一，新的左翼力量出现或崛起，却成为传统左翼的竞争对手。在智利，2011年因抗议高等教育费用过高而产生的学生运动导致了新左翼的形成，其最著名的领导人卡米拉（Camila Vallejo）在2014年被吸收进左翼“新多数派联盟”，学生运动的另外两个主要领导人杰克逊（Jackson）和博利克（Boric）不仅游离在左翼大联盟之外，而且杰克逊领导的民主革命党和学生运动的其他组织均作为其反对派而存在。2017年大选中，广泛阵线继续巩固与议会外左翼运动和政党的关系，通过吸收前学生领袖豪尔赫·夏普（Jorge Sharp）领导的自治运动在瓦尔帕莱索市取得了决定性的胜利。夏普在该市获得了53.8%的选票，而“新多数派联盟”和右翼联盟仅分别获得22.4%和22.6%的选票。但在全国层面，左翼多数派联盟却没有形成联合，导致在2017年12月的大选中失利。

In Ecuador’s 2021 general election, Yaku Pérez, the candidate of the left-wing indigenous organization Pachakutik Plurinational Unity Movement, emerged as a dark horse, winning 19.4% of the vote in the first round and increasing its parliamentary seats from 4 to 27. He finished third by a margin of only 0.35 percentage points, failing to advance to the second round. However, due to policy differences with Rafael Correa on issues such as environmental protection, in the 2021 second-round presidential election he neither supported the right-wing “Creating Opportunities” movement and Christian Social Party candidate, banker Guillermo Lasso, nor Correa’s follower, the left-wing Union for Hope candidate Andrés Arauz. He even called on voters to spoil their ballots or cast invalid votes. In five provinces, the number of spoiled ballots exceeded the votes Arauz received, which was an important reason why Arauz, who had led by a large margin in the first round of the presidential election, was overtaken by Lasso in the second round.

在2021年厄瓜多尔的大选中，左翼土著人组织帕查库蒂克多民族统一运动候选人亚库·佩雷斯（Yaku Pérez）成为黑马，在第一轮获得了19.4%的选票，获得的议席从4席增加到27席，仅以0.35个百分点的微弱差距屈居第三，未能进入第二轮。但因其在环境保护等方面与科雷亚的政策有分歧，其在2021年的第二轮总统大选中既不支持右翼“创造机会运动”和基督教社会党候选人、银行家吉列尔莫·拉索（Guillermo Lasso），也不支持科雷亚的追随者左翼希望联盟候选人安德烈斯·阿劳斯（Andrés Arauz），甚至号召选民破坏选票或者投无效票。在5个省份的选举中，被破坏的选票甚至超过了阿劳斯获得的选票数，这也是阿劳斯在第一轮总统选举中以较大优势领先却在第二轮选举中被拉索逆转的重要原因。

Second, faced with severe governing conditions, the left is divided in its policy responses. In Ecuador, Lenín Moreno, known as Rafael Correa’s successor, underwent a dramatic shift in governing style after taking office, adopting more market-oriented economic policies. While the left-wing party continued to govern, its policies turned rightward, and the ruling PAIS Alliance even split over whether to support Correa. Vice President Jorge Glas, a Correa supporter, was removed from office and placed in pretrial detention on corruption charges. In the 2021 general election, the ruling PAIS Alliance lost all 74 of its parliamentary seats, winning none.

第二，面对严峻的执政形势，左翼在政策应对方面存在分歧。在厄瓜多尔，被称为拉斐尔·科雷亚(Rafael Correa)接班人的莱宁·莫雷诺（Lenín Moreno）在执政后风格大变，转而实行更加市场化的经济政策，在左翼政党继续执政的情况下政策发生右转，甚至执政党主权祖国联盟运动就是否支持科雷亚发生分裂，支持科雷亚的副总统豪尔赫·格拉斯（Jorge Glas）因腐败指控被免职和预防性拘留。在2021年的大选中，执政党主权祖国联盟运动丢掉了所有74个议席，没有获得一个席位。

Third, political fragmentation and ideological polarization have intensified. In Peru’s 2021 general election, the highest vote share for any candidate was only 16%. The ruling party and the traditional left-wing party “Together for Peru” won only 42 of 130 seats, becoming a weakness for left-wing governance. In Ecuador’s parliament, as many as 15 parties won seats, and the Union for Hope, which won the most seats, had only 49. In recent years, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, ideological polarization in Latin American countries has intensified, giving rise to far-right and far-left forces. The former includes Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, and the latter includes Peru’s Pedro Castillo and Ecuador’s Yaku Pérez. While the emergence of the far left has strengthened the left-wing camp, its radical policy proposals also pose new challenges to the unity and strengthening of the Latin American left.

第三，政治碎片化和意识形态极化现象加剧。在2021年秘鲁大选中，候选人得票率最高的只有16%，执政党和传统左翼政党“共同为了秘鲁”仅获得了130个议席中的42个，成为左翼执政的短板。厄瓜多尔议会中获得席位的政党多达15个，获得席位最多的希望联盟也只有49席。近年来，尤其是疫情大流行以来，拉美国家的意识形态极化现象加剧，出现了极右翼和极左翼，前者如巴西的博索纳罗，后者如秘鲁的卡斯蒂略和厄瓜多尔的亚库等极左翼的出现一方面壮大了左翼阵营，另一方面其激进的政策主张也对拉美左翼的团结图强形成了新的挑战。

IV. Whether a new left-wing governing cycle will begin remains to be seen, but the left will exist in Latin America for the long term

四、新的左翼执政周期能否开启尚待观察，但左翼在拉美将长期存在

In the coming years, the Latin American left will experience a critical moment. It must prove its ability to act as an engine of society. Whether a new left-wing cycle can begin will depend on at least the following factors.

在未来几年中，拉美左翼将经历重要时刻,必须证明自己可以成为社会引擎的能力，新的左翼周期能否开启将至少取决于以下几个因素。

First, in addition to appeasing popular discontent with the way the state functions and demands for political innovation, the Latin American left must form a new social consensus through political renewal and restore and improve people’s living conditions. Second, the new left must demonstrate sufficient political management capacity to gain institutional space for power, while not abandoning ties with social movements to maintain the momentum for winning elections. In particular, whether left-wing leaders can respond to the COVID-19 pandemic with efficiency and transparency will be of great significance for enhancing public trust in government. Third, after coming to power, whether the Latin American left can correctly define the role of the state and complete the exploration of a new development model is crucial. In the just-concluded governing cycle, although the left won high popularity among the people, it did not pay attention to shaping the state, especially failing to carry out necessary reforms in the armed forces, police, and judiciary. It not only failed to achieve the goal of replacing neoliberalism but also fell into a governing predicament and ultimately lost power. Now, a second cycle may be about to begin. We can wait and see what new strategies left-wing forces will adopt to effectively redefine the existence of the state.

第一，除了要平复民众对国家发挥作用的方式及其政治创新要求的不满之外，拉美左翼还要通过政治复兴形成新的社会共识，以及恢复改善人民的生活条件。第二，新左派必须证明自己有足够的政治管理能力，以获得制度权力空间，同时不放弃与社会运动的联系，以获得赢得选举的动力。尤其是左翼领导人能否以效率和透明度应对疫情大流行，将对增强公众对政府的信任意义重大。第三，拉美左翼上台后能否正确界定国家的作用、完成对新发展模式的探索至关重要。在刚刚过去的执政周期，虽然左翼在民众中赢得了很高的声望，但左翼没有重视对国家的塑造，尤其在武装部队、警察、司法领域没有进行必要的改革，非但没有达到替代新自由主义的目标，反而陷入执政困境，最终丧失了政权。现在，第二个周期可能即将开始，左翼力量将采用哪些新战略来有效重新界定国家的存在，我们可以拭目以待。

After the “Pink Tide” of the early 21st century, Latin American politics has also undergone a series of major trend-like changes, providing conditions for the long-term existence and development of the left. The left-wing regimes currently existing in various countries can still contend with the right. In 2021, the Peruvian left achieved a historic victory. The Bolivian left will govern until 2025, the Venezuelan and Mexican lefts until 2024, the Argentine left until 2023, and the Nicaraguan and Chilean lefts may still win elections in 2021. The left remains a political force that cannot be ignored in the Latin American political landscape. The basis for its resilient existence and development still exists, mainly manifested in the following aspects.

经过21世纪初的“粉红色浪潮”，拉美政治也出现了一系列趋势性的重大变化，为左翼在政治上的长期存在和发展提供了条件。目前各国存在的左翼政权仍然可以和右翼分庭抗礼，2021年秘鲁左翼获得历史性胜利，玻利维亚左翼将执政到2025年，委内瑞拉和墨西哥左翼都将执政到2024年，阿根廷左翼将执政到2023年，尼加拉瓜和智利左翼还有可能在2021年的选举中获胜。左翼仍然是拉美政治格局中不可忽视的政治力量，其韧性存在和发展的基础犹存，这主要表现在以下几个方面。

First, Latin American countries are continuously carrying out reforms in politics, economy, and diplomacy. While enhancing the legitimacy of the political system and consolidating democracy, they are addressing the problems of social wealth polarization and economic stagnation left by neoliberal policies. While developing the economy, they focus on solving political and social problems, striving to find a more just, reasonable, and sustainable development model, and enhancing the degree of political integration and inclusion. The achievements made in this regard will lay the foundation for the next round of modernization in Latin American countries.

第一，拉美地区国家不断进行政治、经济和外交等方面的改革，在提升政治体制的合法性、巩固民主的前提下解决新自由主义政策留下的社会贫富分化、经济滞涨等问题。在发展经济的同时，注重解决政治问题和社会问题，努力寻求一种更为公正合理、可持续的发展方式，增强政治融入与政治整合的程度，由此取得的成就将为拉美国家下一轮现代化进程奠定基础。

Second, changes in the political environment and institutional conditions are accelerating the evolution of political parties and party systems in Latin America, continuously adapting to the new political demands brought about by democratic consolidation. Party politics is gestating more and higher modernity. Through changes in guiding ideology, organizational methods, and mobilization methods, left-wing parties are actively responding to the trends of mass politics and grassroots politics, and their governing methods and capabilities are showing new characteristics.

第二，政治环境和制度条件的变化使拉美的政党和政党体制加速演变，不断适应民主巩固所带来的新政治需求，政党政治正在孕育更多更高的现代性。左翼政党通过指导思想、组织方式和动员方式变革，积极应对大众政治、草根政治的风潮，其执政方式和执政能力表现出新的特点。

Third, with economic growth and the deepening of democratic institutions, the social base of the political systems in Latin American countries is continuously expanding, and the degree of political integration has reached an unprecedented level. These countries are increasingly paying attention to the social and political rights of the lower classes, their political participation, and their role in the formation of political, economic, and social policies. At the same time, the growing middle class and its political demands are posing new challenges to the traditional political system.

第三，随着经济的成长和民主体制的深化，拉美国家政治体制的社会基础不断扩大，政治融合程度空前提高。该地区国家愈来愈多地关注下层民众的社会权利和政治权利，关注他们的政治参与，关注他们在政治、经济和社会政策形成过程中的作用。同时，日趋壮大的中间阶层及其政治诉求正在对传统政治体制形成新的挑战。

In addition, the long-standing problems of wealth polarization and inequality in Latin American countries also provide a support base for the existence of the Latin American left. The proportion of the poor population in the Latin American region reached nearly 50% after the implementation of neoliberalism in the 1990s, and even after the “Pink Tide,” it remains above 30% [4]4 In 2020, the poverty rate in Latin America was 37.7%. See the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).. Under conditions of democratized politics, this population will support the left, which advocates social equality, and this situation will persist in Latin America for the long term.

此外，拉美国家长期存在的贫富分化和不平等现象也为拉美左翼的存在提供了支持基础。在拉美地区贫困人口的比例在20世纪90年代新自由主义实施后高达近50%，即使在“粉红色浪潮”之后的今天仍然高达30%以上2020年拉美地区的贫困率为37.7%，参见联合国拉美经委会，这部分人群在民主化的政治条件下会支持主张社会平等的左翼，而这种情况在拉美将长期存在。

In summary, the existence and development of left-wing political forces in Latin American countries have their political, economic, social, and even demographic bases. The left, which advocates social equality, and socialist thought have broad space for existence. This is also an important reason why the Latin American left has developed resiliently for more than 100 years.

总之，拉美国家左翼政治力量的存在和发展有其政治、经济、社会甚至人口方面的基础，主张社会平等的左翼和社会主义思潮拥有存在的广泛空间，这也是拉美左翼100多年来一直韧性发展的重要原因。

(The author is a researcher at the Institute of Latin American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and director of the Research Office for Marxist Theory and Latin American Politics)

（作者系中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所研究员、马克思主义理论与拉美政治研究室主任）

Online editor: Tongxin

网络编辑：同心