The Main Challenges, Lessons and Implications of Foreign Centenarian Political Parties

On the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, looking around the world, there are still at least 70 well-known political parties with a founding history of one hundred years or more that continue to exist today, including the British Conservative Party, the Labour Party, and the Liberal Democrats; the Democratic Party and the Republican Party of the United States; the Social Democratic Party of Germany (hereinafter referred to as the SPD); the Socialist Party of France; the Swedish Social Democratic Party (hereinafter referred to as the Swedish Social Democrats); the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party of Canada; the African National Congress (hereinafter referred to as the ANC) and the Communist Party of South Africa; the Indian National Congress and the Communist Party of India; the Colorado Party and the National Party of Uruguay; and the Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (hereinafter referred to as the MPRP), among others with diverse ideologies. At a time when the world is undergoing changes unseen in a century, examining the development processes, experiences, lessons, and challenges of foreign centenarian political parties holds certain mirroring significance for our correct understanding of the hundred-year glorious history of the Communist Party of China.

在中国共产党百年华诞之际，放眼世界，建党历史达到和超过百年且至今存续的知名政党至少还有70多个，包括英国保守党和工党及自由民主党、美国民主党和共和党、德国社会民主党（以下简称“德国社民党”）、法国社会党、瑞典社会民主党（以下简称“瑞典社民党”）、加拿大自由党和保守党、南非非洲人国民大会（以下简称“南非非国大”）和共产党、印度国大党和共产党、乌拉圭红党和白党、蒙古人民革命党（以下简称“蒙古人革党”）等意识形态各异的政党。在世界处于百年未有之大变局的今天，审视国外百年政党的发展历程、经验教训与挑战，对于我们正确认识中国共产党的百年辉煌史具有一定镜鉴意义。

I. The Main Predicaments and Challenges Faced by Foreign Centenarian Political Parties in Recent Times

一、国外百年政党近期面临的主要困境与挑战

Since the Cold War, especially in the 21st century, due to changes in the times and environment, most existing foreign centenarian political parties have faced increasingly complex difficulties and challenges, exposing a series of long-accumulated contradictions and problems. To summarize, their commonalities mainly include the following aspects.

冷战后特别是21世纪以来，由于时代和环境的变化，国外现存的百年政党大都面临日益复杂的困难与挑战，暴露出一系列长期积累的矛盾与问题。概括起来，其共同点主要有以下方面。

(A) Generally Facing the Impact of the Waves of Globalization, Informatization, Democratization, and the Diversification of People's Lifestyles

（一）普遍面临全球化、信息化、民主化及民众生活方式多样化浪潮的冲击

On the one hand, the deepening development of globalization and informatization, the impact of the momentum of democratization and diversification, and the rapid advancement of new media have broken the previously relatively closed governing environment of many countries, increasing the challenges faced by traditional major and old parties. Currently, the monopoly or dominant position of many foreign centenarian political parties over national political and economic life is constantly being broken and weakened, making it difficult for them to grasp the authority of their policy orientation and implementation intensity. For example, during the tenure of Gerhard Schröder, the SPD severely unbalanced reform and the preservation of traditional characteristics, and the sequelae of excessive innovation still affect it today. On the other hand, these new trends and waves have brought major challenges to the organizational systems, mobilization models, and thinking concepts of many old parties, leading some parties to face obvious maladaptation and lagging responses, with some parties experiencing varying degrees of disconnection from society, even talking to themselves, and their combat effectiveness being weakened to varying degrees. For example, parties with relatively vertical management systems and more traditional propaganda and mobilization methods, such as the Portuguese Communist Party and the Communist Party of Greece, have been greatly impacted, with their influence among the lower and middle classes declining; while social democratic parties in Western countries like the SPD, the Socialist Party of France, the British Labour Party, and the Swedish Social Democrats have lost their former glory of "one banner rallying half the sky," with their social mobilization capacity significantly declining, especially evident in elections. In France, more than half of the traditional supporters, especially young people, have gradually drifted away from the Socialist Party and no longer heed its call. Currently, the comprehensive and multi-layered challenges faced by most foreign centenarian political parties are unprecedented, and many parties have yet to find feasible countermeasures.

一方面，全球化、信息化的深入发展，民主化、多样化势头的冲击，新媒体发展的突飞猛进，打破了多国原先相对封闭的执政环境，增加了传统大党、老党面临的挑战。当前，国外许多百年政党对国家政治经济生活的垄断或主导地位在不断被打破和弱化，使其在政策取向与施政力度的权威上面临艰难把握。例如，德国社民党在格哈德·施罗德（Gerhard Schroeder）执政期间在改革与保持传统特色上就曾严重失衡，革新过度导致的后遗症影响至今。另一方面，这些新的趋势与浪潮给不少老党的组织体制、动员模式、思维理念等方面带来重大挑战，导致部分党面临明显的不适应与反应滞后状况，一些党出现与社会不同程度的脱节，甚至自说自话，战斗力受到不同程度弱化。例如，葡萄牙共产党、希腊共产党这类管理制度相对垂直、宣传动员方式较传统的党受冲击较大，在中下层群众中的影响力下降；而像德国社民党、法国社会党、英国工党、瑞典社民党这类西方国家社会党，“一面大旗号召半边天”的风光不再，社会动员能力大幅下降，在竞选中表现尤为明显。在法国，一半以上的传统支持者尤其是年轻人，已经与社会党渐行渐远，不再听从其召唤。当前，国外多数百年政党所遭遇到的全方位、多层面的挑战，都是前所未有的，不少政党尚未找到可行的应对之策。

(B) Mostly Facing the Impact of the Depoliticization Trend in Social Thought, with Increased Public Distrust of Traditional Political Parties

（二）大都面临社会思潮非政治化趋势冲击，民众对传统政党的不信任感增加

After the Cold War, the role of ideological factors in the political and social life of most countries has significantly declined, the trend of political apathy has emerged, and the attractiveness, cohesion, appeal, and influence of traditional political parties have decreased. The channels for people to participate in politics and social governance have significantly broadened, especially as most young people tend to participate in various loose, flexible, and convenient non-governmental organizations and social movements, showing a marked decline in interest in joining traditional political parties. Given the long-standing shortcomings of many centenarian political parties, especially the frequent exposure of corruption, public trust in them has continuously declined, with increased criticism and accusations. According to relevant opinion polls, at the beginning of the 21st century, the distrust of the German and French publics towards their own political parties, especially traditional mainstream parties, reached 61% and 63% respectively. In the United States, in 2012, the public approval ratings of the Democratic and Republican parties had fallen to 30% and 20% respectively. Public trust in political parties in Latin American countries is less than 20%, while for some traditional old parties it is even lower, falling to around 10%. In recent decades, under the impact of the public's indifferent attitude towards political parties, foreign centenarian political parties have, on the one hand, faced a general reduction in party membership. For example, the SPD and the Social Democratic Party of Austria (hereinafter referred to as the SPÖ) had 954,000 and 720,000 members respectively in the 1980s, but by 2019, the SPD's membership had fallen to 419,340, and by 2020, the SPÖ's membership had decreased to 157,855. On the other hand, they face an intensified centrifugal tendency among members towards traditional parties, especially reflected in a decline in loyalty to their own party. According to relevant data, in some current traditional political parties in Western countries, the proportion of members leaving the party accounts for 1/3 to 1/2 of the total party membership, while the proportion of supporters defecting from traditional old parties in elections is even higher. In the 2017 French presidential election, many people in the Socialist Party, even key figures such as Christophe Castaner, who later became Minister of the Interior, turned to support Emmanuel Macron and La République En Marche!.

冷战后，意识形态因素在多数国家的政治与社会生活中的作用明显下降，政治冷淡主义思潮涌现，传统政党的吸引力、凝聚力、感召力、影响力下降。民众参与政治和社会治理的渠道明显拓宽，特别是多数年轻人倾向参与各种松散、灵活、便捷的非政府组织与社会运动，对加入传统政党的兴趣显著下降。鉴于不少百年政党长期存在的短板特别是腐败现象频频暴露，民众对其信任度不断下降，批评与指责增多。据相关民调显示，21世纪初，德国和法国民众对本国政党特别是传统主流政党的不信任度分别达到61%和63%。在美国，2012年，民主党和共和党的民意支持率已分别下跌到30%和20%。拉美国家民众对政党的信任度不足20%，而部分传统老党则更低，跌至10%左右。近几十年来，在民众对政党冷遇心态的冲击下，国外百年政党一方面面临党员人数普遍减少，如德国社民党、奥地利社会民主党（以下简称“奥地利社民党”）在20世纪80年代分别有党员95.4万、72万人，而到2019年，德国社民党党员人数下降为419340人，奥地利社民党2020年党员人数减少到157855人；另一方面面临党员对传统政党的离心倾向加剧，尤其体现为对本党忠诚度下降。据相关数据显示，在当前部分西方国家传统政党中，党员的退党比例占本党党员总数的1/3—1/2，而支持者在选举中对传统老党的反叛比例则更高。在2017年法国大选中，社会党中有不少人甚至关键人物，如后来出任内政部长的克里斯多夫·卡斯塔内（Christophe Castaner）都转而支持埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）与共和国前进党。

(C) Facing Squeezing and Challenges from the Continuous Rise of Emerging Political Parties, Especially Populist Parties

（三）面临新兴政党特别是民粹主义政党不断崛起的挤压与挑战

During the Cold War, the party landscape in many countries, especially Western countries, was generally stable, and centenarian political parties had a certain ability to control the situation. In most Western countries such as Germany, France, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, it was common for center-left and center-right traditional mainstream parties to play the role of "ballast stones" in the political arena, with their combined vote share in each general election generally reaching around 80%. However, since the 1990s, especially in the 21st century, the party landscape in most countries has undergone varying degrees of change or even reshaping, stemming from the strong rise of emerging political parties in these countries, especially populist parties. For example, La République En Marche! in France, the Five Star Movement in Italy, the Coalition of the Radical Left – Progressive Alliance (hereinafter referred to as SYRIZA) in Greece, the Freedom Party of Austria, the Sweden Democrats, the Broad Front in Uruguay, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, and the Economic Freedom Fighters in South Africa have risen strongly to become important or mainstream political parties, with the Broad Front in Uruguay and SYRIZA in Greece even rising to become the largest party for a time. Under these circumstances, the living space of old parties in Western Europe, many Latin American countries, India, Pakistan, and other countries has been squeezed to varying degrees, with some reduced to second-rate or even marginal parties. The Socialist Party of France has recently faced unprecedented squeezing from three emerging parties: La France Insoumise, La République En Marche!, and the National Front. The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party of Colombia alternated in power from the mid-19th century to the end of the 20th century, but since the reform of the party law in the 1990s, they have faced severe challenges from newly formed emerging parties such as the Radical Change Party, the Green Alliance, the Party of Social National Unity, and the Democratic Center Party, losing their governing status.

冷战时期，世界上许多国家特别是西方国家的政党格局总体稳定，百年政党具有一定的控局能力。在德国、法国、英国、加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰等多数西方国家，大多是中左与中右的传统主流政党发挥政坛“压舱石”的作用，它们在每次大选中的得票率之和一般能够达到80%左右。但自20世纪90年代特别是21世纪以来，大多数国家政党格局出现了不同程度的改变甚至重塑，这源自于本国新兴政党尤其是民粹政党的强势崛起。例如，法国共和国前进党、意大利“五星运动”、希腊左翼与进步力量联盟（以下简称“希腊左联党”）、奥地利自由党、瑞典民主党、乌拉圭广泛阵线、巴基斯坦正义运动党、南非经济自由党等强势崛起成为重要政党或主流政党，乌拉圭广泛阵线、希腊左联党甚至一度上升为第一大党。在这种形势下，西欧、拉美多国及印度、巴基斯坦等国老党的生存空间均受到不同程度的挤压，有的沦为二流甚至边缘政党。法国社会党近期就遭到“不屈的法兰西”、共和国前进党和法国国民阵线三个新兴政党的空前挤压。哥伦比亚保守党和自由党自19世纪中叶到20世纪末长期轮流执政，但自20世纪90年代政党法改革后，两党受到相继组建的哥伦比亚激进变革党、绿色联盟、民族团结社会党、民主中心党等新兴政党的严峻挑战而丧失执政地位。

(D) Some Major and Old Parties Are Themselves Accelerating Their Decline, Facing Severe Survival Crises

（四）部分大党、老党自身加速衰落，面临严峻生存危机

After the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, not only did some traditional communist parties, especially centenary communist parties in Western countries, continue to decline and become marginalized, with some even changing their names or disappearing. In recent years, some centenary major parties have also shown signs of fatigue and even sustained decline, with the center-left social democratic parties being particularly prominent, such as the French Socialist Party, the British Labour Party, the German Social Democratic Party, the Swedish Social Democratic Party, the Indian National Congress, and the African National Congress of South Africa. Their vote shares in general elections have continuously fallen to historic lows. The Indian National Congress was still the largest party in the 2009 general election, winning 191 seats, 73 more than the second-largest party, the Bharatiya Janata Party. However, in the 2014 general election, it won only 44 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. Because it failed to meet the legal requirement of 10%, the party chairperson, Sonia Gandhi, could not serve as the official Leader of the Opposition. This was an unprecedented situation for a traditional major party that had existed for over 130 years. The British Labour Party’s vote shares in three general elections in the 1950s were 48.8%, 46.4%, and 43.8%, respectively, while in the 2015 and 2019 general elections, they fell to 30.4% and 32.2%, respectively, described as its “most devastating defeat” since 1935. In the first round of the 2017 French presidential election, the candidate of the French Socialist Party received only 6.36% of the vote, and its vote share in the first round of the legislative election was only 7.44%. In the same year, the German Social Democratic Party’s vote share in the general election was only 20.5%. The Austrian Social Democratic Party’s vote share in general elections fell from a peak of 51% in 1979 to 33% in 2000, and in the most recent election, it dropped even further to 21.7%. Center-right parties such as the British Conservative Party, the Canadian Conservative Party, the Danish Liberal Party, and the Norwegian Conservative Party are also clearly in decline, worse than before. The decline of these major and old parties is the result of a combination of multiple factors, including the wear and tear of governance, weakened motivation for self-renewal, deteriorating financial conditions, estranged party-mass relations, and hollowed-out grassroots organizations, which have continuously eroded their own strength and ultimately led to a decline in public support.

苏东剧变后，不仅一些传统共产党尤其是西方国家的百年共产党，持续走下坡路，沦落到边缘地位，有的甚至改名或消亡。近些年来，还有一些百年大党也显现出疲态，甚至持续走衰，其中以中左翼的社会党更为突出，如法国社会党、英国工党、德国社民党、瑞典社民党、印度国大党、南非非国大等，其大选得票率持续下滑到历史低点。印度国大党在2009年的大选中还是第一大党，获得191个议席，比第二大党印度人民党多73席，但在2014年大选中仅获得人民院543个席位中的44个，因未达到10%的法律要求，该党主席索尼娅·甘地（Sonia Gandhi）不能出任官方反对党领袖。这对于一个存在130多年的传统大党而言是前所未有的境况。英国工党在20世纪50年代三次大选的得票率分别为48.8%、46.4%、43.8%，而在2015年、2019年大选中分别跌到30.4%和32.2%，为1935年以来“最惨痛的失败”。法国社会党在参加2017年总统第一轮选举时，其总统候选人得票率仅6.36%，第一轮立法选举得票率只有7.44%。德国社民党同年大选得票率也只有20.5%。奥地利社民党大选得票率从1979年51%的顶点下跌到2000年的33%，最近一次大选更低至21.7%。中右翼的英国保守党、加拿大保守党、丹麦自由党、挪威保守党等也在明显走衰，今不如昔。这些大党、老党的走衰是多种因素综合作用的结果，执政损耗、自我革新动力弱化、财政状况恶化、党群联系疏远、基层组织空心化等，使其自身实力不断衰减，最终导致民意下滑。

II. Lessons from the Rise and Fall of Foreign Centenary Political Parties

二、国外百年政党兴衰的经验教训

In their long-term cycles of rise and fall, foreign centenary political parties have accumulated both rich historical experience and profound lessons.

国外百年政党在长期兴衰起伏中，既积累了丰富的历史经验，也留下了深刻教训。

(I) Historical Experience in the Development of Foreign Centenary Political Parties

（一）国外百年政党发展的历史经验

First, most adhere to relatively clear guiding ideologies or values and can adjust and incorporate flexibly in a timely manner. Ideology is the soul of a political party. The “values and political beliefs within a party’s political ideology” are the main tools for a party to consolidate political forces. No political party in the world can survive for a century relying solely on interest transactions without ideological appeal. Maintaining both the principled nature of the guiding ideology and the tension of ideology is an important experience for the survival of foreign centenary political parties. This is specifically manifested in: First, long-term adherence to their guiding ideology. The Colorado Party of Uruguay has been guided by Batllismo, based on freedom, democracy, and social justice, for 185 years. Since its founding, the Indian National Congress has taken secularism as its core value and claims that only it is truly committed to a unified and secular India. Communist parties in the United States, Portugal, Greece, and Chile have adhered to the guidance of Marxism for a century, long upholding ideas of fairness, equality, justice, and progress to mobilize the masses and seek and expand supporters. Second, keeping pace with the times by incorporating other ideas and reasonable propositions. Social democratic parties in Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Austria, and Portugal, while adhering to the guiding ideology of social democracy and core concepts such as fairness, justice, and mutual assistance, have since the 1980s absorbed ideas such as ecologism and feminism, expanding the ideological connotation of social democracy. The New Zealand Labour Party has long adhered to the political cultural concept of a “fair nation,” securing relatively stable support from the middle class and lower-middle-class people. A German public opinion survey in the early 1980s showed that 80% of respondents believed effective measures must be taken to stop environmental degradation. The German Social Democratic Party promptly captured the change in public sentiment and absorbed ecological concepts relatively early. During its transformation amid the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party changed from believing in scientific socialism to “converting to social democracy while also absorbing some socialist ideas,” and incorporated the essence of traditional Mongolian culture, the “doctrine of the mean,” into it, striving to enhance the inclusiveness and compatibility of its ideology.

第一，大都坚守相对明晰的指导思想或价值观，并能适时而灵活地调整和兼容。意识形态是政党的灵魂。而一个党“政治意识形态中的价值理念与政治信仰”是党凝聚政治力量的主要工具，世界上没有哪一个政党能够仅靠利益交易而无思想感召存续百年。既坚持指导思想的原则性，同时又保持意识形态的张力，是国外百年政党存续的一个重要经验。具体表现为：一是长期坚守其指导思想。乌拉圭红党185年来一直以自由、民主和社会正义为基础的巴特列主义为指导。印度国大党自立党以来就将世俗主义作为党的核心价值观，并表示只有自己才是真正致力于一个统一和世俗主义印度的政党。美国、葡萄牙、希腊和智利等国家的共产党百年来坚持马克思主义的指导，长期秉持公正、平等、正义、进步的思想理念，以此来动员民众，寻求和扩大支持者。二是与时俱进地兼收并蓄其他思想与合理主张。德国、瑞典、英国、奥地利、葡萄牙等国的社会党在坚守社会民主主义指导思想，坚持公平、正义、互助等核心理念的同时，自20世纪80年代以来吸收了生态主义、女权主义等思想，拓展了社会民主主义的思想内涵。新西兰工党长期坚守“公平国家”的政治文化观，使其获得较稳定的中产阶级和中下层民众的支持。20世纪80年代初的德国民意调查显示，80%的被调查者认为必须采取有效措施来制止环境恶化。德国社民党及时捕捉到民众心态的变化,较早地吸纳了生态主义理念。蒙古人革党在苏东剧变期间的转型中，从信仰科学社会主义“改奉社会民主主义，同时也吸纳部分社会主义的思想”，并把蒙古传统文化的精髓“中道思想”纳入其中，力求增强其意识形态的包容性和兼容力。

Second, focus on expanding the social base, enhancing policy inclusiveness, and broadening the scope of political influence. This is mainly reflected in two dimensions: First, expanding the party’s social base. After World War II, facing changes in the domestic and international situation, many foreign centenary political parties relatively downplayed their class attributes to win more supporters. In the mid-to-late 1940s, the Norwegian Labour Party positioned itself as a “people’s party” representing the majority of the population. Since the 1950s and 1960s, to adapt to changes in Germany’s social class structure, the German Social Democratic Party no longer relied solely on the traditional working class but focused on making its “political slogans and messages” meet the needs of multiple social groups simultaneously. According to the classification of German sociologists, there were 12 different “social groups” of varying sizes in Germany at the end of the 20th century. The Social Democratic Party won varying degrees of support from all groups, thereby achieving a political transformation from the left to the center ground. The Austrian Social Democratic Party has for decades “transcended” left and right politically, seeking a new balance between them and pursuing an Austrian-style “third way.” Second, enhancing the inclusiveness and coverage of ideas and policies. To attract more voters, the French Socialist Party advocated the concept of “wanting a market economy, not a market society” at the turn of the century. The German Social Democratic Party proposed the idea of “relative justice” and even the slogan of “creating more just inequality.” The Indian National Congress proposed an inclusive concept, emphasizing that only its advocated “secularism and liberal nationalism can truly accommodate India’s diversity,” and in practice put forward the governing theory of “secular inclusion, comprehensive coordination, and promoting harmony,” implementing the governance principle of “helping the poor, rational distribution, and maintaining fairness,” striving to enable the majority of the domestic population to share the dividends of development.

第二，注重拓展社会基础，增强政策包容性，扩大政治影响范围。主要体现在两个维度上：一是拓展党的社会基础。二战后，面对国内外形势变化，国外不少百年政党为争取更多支持者，相对淡化其阶级属性。挪威工党在20世纪40年代中后期就将自己定位为代表大多数民众的“全民党”。20世纪五六十年代以来，为了适应德国社会阶级结构的变化，德国社民党不再是仅依靠传统的工人阶级，而是着眼于使自身的“政治口号和信息”同时满足多个社会群体的需求。根据德国社会学家的分类，在20世纪末的德国共有大小各异的12个“社会群体”，社民党赢得了所有群体不同程度的支持，也由此实现了从左翼向中间地带靠拢的政治转型。奥地利社民党几十年来在政治上“超越”左右，并在左右间寻找新的平衡点，走奥地利式的“第三条道路”。二是增强理念与政策的包容性和覆盖面。为了吸引更多选民，法国社会党在世纪之交曾倡导“要市场经济、不要市场社会”的理念；德国社民党提出过“相对公正”的思想，甚至提出过“创造更多公正的不平等”的口号。印度国大党提出包容理念，强调只有该党所主张的“世俗主义及自由民族主义才能真正包容印度的多样性”，并在实践中提出“世俗包容、综合协调、促进和谐”的执政理论，推行“扶贫济困、合理分配、维护公平”的施政原则，致力于使国内大多数人分享发展红利。

Third, intra-party life is relatively democratic and tolerant, with a greater emphasis on reform and innovation. Some political parties have invested a certain amount of effort in governing the Party and disciplining it to enhance their influence and capacity for action. Their main practices include: first, emphasizing the promotion of intra-party democracy, fostering a healthy intra-party political ecosystem, stimulating intra-party vitality, and especially respecting dissenting opinions of minorities within the Party. For example, the French Socialist Party allows the existence of factions within the Party and permits them to submit their own proposals at Party congresses. Of course, this model of permitting factional activities has also produced serious consequences within that Party, leading to its split. Second, Party activities have clear regulations, with education as the primary method for Party cadres and members, and organizational sanctions are used cautiously. Socialist parties in Western countries impose strict requirements on Party cadres and members regarding integrity and discipline, focusing on cultivating their self-discipline. For instance, the Swedish Social Democratic Party and the Portuguese Communist Party have long emphasized fostering self-discipline and moral character among their members. The German Social Democratic Party and the Austrian Social Democratic Party mostly issue cautionary education to ordinary members; even when disciplinary violations occur, organizational disciplinary sanctions are rarely applied. In recent years, major leaders of the Australian Labor Party have repeatedly violated Party discipline, such as former leader Mark Latham, who publicly disclosed Party secrets to the media but received no organizational sanctions. Of course, this "lenient" policy has also planted hidden dangers for their intra-party life. Third, ideological building within the Party is relatively open, emphasizing the promotion of innovation through the collision of different viewpoints and opinions. For example, the discussion within the British Labour Party on amending Clause IV of its constitution regarding nationalization lasted over 30 years, involving multiple long-term debates across the entire Party, and was only finally passed in the 1990s when a high degree of consensus was reached within the Party. Fourth, emphasis is placed on grassroots Party building, strengthening ties with Party members and the public. Some parties stress communication and exchange with grassroots members and supporters, focusing on work among youth, women, the elderly, and other groups. For instance, members of the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties frequently maintain close contact with voters through phone calls, emails, door-to-door visits, and rallies. One state senator could even "probably name 4,000 to 5,000 people. They engage in one-on-one communication to build personal relationships with voters."

第三，党内生活相对民主和宽容，较为重视改革创新。一些政党为增强自身的影响力和行动力，在管党治党方面投入了一定精力。其主要做法包括：一是重视发扬党内民主，营造良好的党内政治生态，激发党内活力，尤其尊重党内少数人的不同意见，如法国社会党允许党内派别存在并在党代会召开时向大会提交本派提案。当然，这种允许派别活动的模式，也在该党内产生严重后果，导致党的分裂。二是党的活动有明晰的规定，对党员干部以教育为主，慎用组织处理。西方国家社会党对党员干部在廉洁守纪上要求严格，注重培育党员干部的自觉性，如瑞典社民党、葡萄牙共产党等长期注重培养党员的自律与道德情操。德国社民党、奥地利社民党多是对一般党员进行提醒性的教育，即使发生某些违纪现象，也较少给予组织纪律处分。近些年来，澳大利亚工党主要领导人多次违反党纪，如前领袖马克·莱瑟姆（Mark Latham）曾公开向媒体爆料党的内幕，却未受到组织处分。当然，这种“宽大”政策也给其党内生活埋下了隐患。三是党的思想建设相对开明，重视在不同观点意见的碰撞中推动创新。如英国工党修改党章关于国有化的第四条款的讨论，持续30多年，进行过多次全党的长期辩论，在20世纪90年代党内共识度较高的情况下，才最终得以通过。四是注重基层党建，加强与党员及民众的联系。一些党强调与基层党员、支持者的沟通和交流，注重做年轻人、妇女、老年人等群体的工作。例如，美国民主共和两党议员经常要通过打电话、发邮件、登门拜访和举行集会等形式，与选民保持密切联系，一位州参议员甚至“大概能叫得出4000到5000人的名字。要进行一对一交流，与选民建立起私人关系”。

Fourth, they have made outstanding contributions to national development and the great cause of the nation, leaving a noteworthy historical legacy. Most centenary political parties have left a deep imprint on the political, economic, and social development of their respective countries, becoming indispensable political forces for national stability, development, and prosperity. José Batlle, leader of the Uruguayan Colorado Party, achieved the separation of church and state during his tenure and established a relatively complete bourgeois representative democratic political system, laying an important foundation for the country's long-term stability. The African National Congress of South Africa made significant and special contributions in the historical process of opposing apartheid, achieving national reconciliation, and building a new South Africa, thereby gaining recognition and support from the majority of South Africans for a period. The Indian National Congress and the Pakistan Muslim League both played decisive roles in their countries' founding and in promoting national development and progress, becoming the primary designers and drivers of their respective political systems, economic, and social development models. Socialist parties in most Western European countries made major contributions to fighting for and achieving universal political suffrage and economic and social equality for the people, particularly playing a decisive role in building their welfare states. The Swedish Social Democratic Party's concept of the "People's Home," functional socialist theory, and fund socialist theory established its "meritorious status" in welfare state construction, which is also an important reason for its long-term governance in the 20th century. Currently, many foreign centenary political parties continue to play an important role in guiding their countries' future development, uniting the people, and achieving social stability—something other parties, especially emerging ones, find difficult to accomplish.

第四，为国家发展和民族伟业作出了突出贡献，留下可圈可点的历史遗产。大多数百年政党都在本国政治经济社会发展进程中留下了深刻印迹，成为国家稳定和发展繁荣不可或缺的重要政治力量。乌拉圭红党领袖何塞·巴特列（José Batlley）在执政期间实现了政教分离，建立了比较完善的资产阶级代议制民主政体，为国家后来的长期稳定打下了重要基础。南非非国大在反对种族隔离政策、实现民族和解、建设新南非的历史进程中作出了重大而特殊的贡献，因此一段时期内得到南非大多数民众的认同和支持。印度国大党和巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟都在其建国、推动国家发展进步进程中起到决定性作用，成为本国政治体制、经济和社会发展模式的主要设计者和推动者。西欧多数国家的社会党在为争取和实现民众的政治普选权以及经济社会平等权上作出了重大贡献，特别是为本国福利国家建设发挥了决定性作用。瑞典社民党的“人民之家”构想、职能社会主义理论、基金社会主义理论奠定了其在福利国家建设中的“功勋地位”，这也是该党20世纪长期执政的重要原因。目前国外有不少百年政党依然在引领国家未来发展、凝聚民众团结和实现社会稳定上发挥着重要作用，这是其他政党尤其是新兴政党难以做到的。

Fifth, they are committed to maintaining political systems, especially electoral systems, that are conducive to the survival of centenary political parties. For some foreign centenary political parties, the relative stability of their domestic political systems is an important condition for their long-term survival. In countries such as the United States, New Zealand, Uruguay, Colombia, Honduras, and Malta, the design of party systems and electoral systems favors the dominance and long-term alternation of two major parties, while setting high barriers for the establishment of new parties and the entry of small parties, which has played a role in preventing or slowing party fragmentation. Centenary political parties, relying on the political resources they control, strive to maintain party systems and electoral rules that benefit them, aiming for minor and gradual reforms. When the United States initially constructed its system, it established a "winner-takes-all" electoral system favorable to major parties. Third parties and small parties can exist but find it extremely difficult to win elections, and the two ruling parties continuously consolidate and strengthen their dominant position by maintaining and amending various systems. In the 1992 U.S. election, independent candidate Ross Perot of a third party, despite strong public support, participated in the presidential race and received 19% of the popular vote but not a single electoral vote, because the electoral rules favored the two traditional major parties. Although U.S. public opinion occasionally calls for changing this unfair electoral rule, it has yet to be shaken. In New Zealand, the simple plurality electoral system favorable to major parties persisted for over 140 years before being replaced by a mixed-member proportional system in 1995, after which small parties were able to participate in government.

第五，致力于维系有利于百年政党存续的政治制度特别是选举制度。对于国外一些百年政党来说，本国政治制度的相对稳定是助其长期存续的一个重要条件。在美国、新西兰、乌拉圭、哥伦比亚、洪都拉斯、马耳他等国家，政党制度和选举制度的设置有利于两党坐大、长期轮替，而对新党建立、小党入局则门槛较高，这对于防止或减缓政党碎片化起到了一定作用。百年政党依托其掌控的国内政治资源，竭力维护有利于自身的政党制度和选举规则，立足于对其小改、缓改。美国当初在进行制度构建时，就设立了有利于大党的“赢者通吃”的选举制度，第三党和小党虽然可以存在，但却极难赢得选举，掌权的两大党又通过维护和修订各项制度不断巩固和加强自身的优势地位。1992年大选，美国第三党的独立候选人罗斯·佩罗（Rose Perot）在声势浩大的舆论支持下，参与总统的角逐，尽管得到了19%的普选票，但却未得到一张选举人票，原因就在于选举规则有利于两大传统政党。尽管美国社会舆论不时地呼吁要改变这种不公平的选举规则，但至今未能撼动。在新西兰，有利于大党的简单多数选举制度承袭了140多年才于1995年被混合比例制取代，从此小党才得以参政。

(II) Historical Lessons from the Development of Foreign Centenary Political Parties

（二）国外百年政党发展的历史教训

First, some Party leaders lack skill in governing the Party, as well as ability and courage, leading to a leadership crisis and doubts and concerns both inside and outside the Party about the Party's governance capacity. Influenced by the short-sighted strategies of electoral politics, many foreign centenary political parties focus their main energy on elections held every few years, weakening the cultivation of reserve cadres, especially the training of top leaders. This results in a clear lack of successors and hollowing out of the Party leadership. Most Party leaders have shallow political experience, lack a foundation within the Party, and are frequently replaced, making it impossible to establish leadership prestige. Pamela Rendi-Wagner, after being elected leader of the Austrian Social Democratic Party in 2018, failed to win widespread support, and her authority was repeatedly questioned within the Party. She led the Party in the 2019 election, which resulted in its worst defeat since World War II, with the vote share dropping to 21.2%. Most inside and outside the Party believed she could not lead the Social Democratic Party out of its decline. Since its reorganization in 2008, the Italian Democratic Party has replaced eight national secretaries (top leaders) in 13 years. This revolving-door-style frequent replacement makes it difficult to establish leadership authority. After Gerhard Schröder resigned, the German Social Democratic Party replaced five party chairs in four years. The leadership has continued to change frequently in recent years, even falling into a state of "being without a leader" for nearly half a year in 2019, eventually selecting two political newcomers as co-chairs—a rare occurrence in its history. German media reported that 70% of German citizens questioned the leadership abilities of the two, believing they could not lead the Social Democratic Party out of its predicament. Overall, the mediocritization of leaders in foreign centenary political parties seems to be a trend.

第一，一些党的领袖治党乏术、缺乏能力魄力，由此产生了领导力危机和党内外对党的执政能力的质疑和担忧。受选举政治的短视策略等影响，国外许多百年政党把主要精力投放于每几年一次的选举中，弱化了对党的后备干部的培养，特别是对最高领导人的历练，导致党的领导层后继乏人、空心化现象明显。多数党的领袖从政资历浅、在党内缺乏根基且频繁更换，领袖威望无从谈起。帕梅拉·兰蒂-瓦格纳（Pamela Rendi-Wagner）在2018年当选奥地利社民党领袖后难孚众望，其权威在党内屡遭质疑。她率领该党参加2019年大选，遭遇二战后的最大败绩，得票率降到21.2%，党内外大都认为其难以带领社民党走出颓势。意大利民主党在2008年重组以来的13年间，更换了八任全国书记（最高领导），这种走马灯似的频繁更换难以树立领袖的权威。自施罗德辞职后，德国社民党四年更换了五任党主席，领导层近几年来仍在频繁换帅，甚至在2019年有近半年时间陷入“群龙无首”状态，最终选出两位政坛新人担任党的双主席，这是其历史上罕见的。德国媒体表示，70%的德国民众质疑两人的领导能力，认为其无法带领社民党走出困境。总体看来，当前国外百年政党领袖的平庸化似成一种趋势。

Second, incessant intra-party strife has inflicted debilitating shocks on some parties, leading to sustained fragmentation. As Ben Clift pointed out: “Factions were once a positive and vital factor in internal discussion, because they could bring in new ideas and foster debate,” but now “only the struggle for organizational power and division remains.” [6]6 Ben Clift is a British political scientist specializing in comparative political economy and party politics. The quotation is from his work on social democratic parties. Most foreign centenary parties have emphasized the development of intra-party democracy while being lax on political discipline. Fierce ideological debates, line struggles, and power struggles have often been followed by organizational splits or even party disintegration. For these parties, because of the constant evolution of circumstances and environments, disputes over different issues are inevitable, but how to control the degree, steer debates in a healthy direction, and achieve correct political lines and party unity through debate—most parties have learned painful lessons on this. The Uruguayan Colorado Party has split five or six times in over 100 years; the Philippine Nacionalista Party, the Communist Party of Finland, and many other parties have experienced multiple splits. The Indian National Congress had “three major splits” from its founding to the 1970s. In 1981, the right wing of the British Labour Party also broke away to form the Social Democratic Party, which shocked Britain and the entire international public opinion at the time and was considered one of the biggest changes in British politics in the 20th century. The French Socialist Party has long been riddled with factions; since the 21st century, there have been at least five or six factions within the party. After its defeat in 2017, many party elites and cadres defected to La République En Marche! or La France Insoumise, causing the Socialist Party to decline rapidly.

第二，党内纷争不断，对一些党产生伤筋动骨的冲击，导致党的持续分化。正如本·克利夫特（Ben Clift）指出的：“党派曾经是内部讨论的积极和富有生气的因素，因为它可以带来新的思想和进行讨论”，但是现在“只剩下组织权力的斗争和分裂”。国外多数百年政党偏重发展党内民主，而对党的政治纪律要求宽松，激烈的思想争论、路线斗争及权力争斗后，随之产生的多是组织的分化甚至党的分裂。对于这些政党而言，因为形势与环境的不断发展变化，党内对不同问题的争论在所难免，但如何掌控度，使争论向良性方向发展，在争论中实现党的政治路线的正确和党的统一，多数党有过深刻教训。乌拉圭红党100多年来分裂了五六次，菲律宾国民党、芬兰共产党等不少党均发生过多次分裂。印度国大党自建立到20世纪70年代就曾发生过“三次大分裂”。英国工党右翼力量也在1981年另立社会民主党，此事在当时震动了英国和整个国际舆论界，被认为是20世纪英国政局的最大变化之一。法国社会党党内长期派别林立，21世纪以来党内存在至少五六个派别，2017年败选后，许多党内精英、党员干部转到共和国前进党或“不屈的法兰西”等组织，致使社会党迅速衰落。

Third, the negative impact of power corruption has damaged the party’s health. Apart from communist parties, most foreign centenary parties have been in power for long periods, and various scandals triggered by power trading and monopolies have inflicted serious harm on these parties. The telecom corruption case during the Indian National Congress’s 2009–2014 term led to the imprisonment of the Congress government’s telecom minister, implicated more than a dozen senior officials including the prime minister and home minister, and sparked a massive anti-corruption protest movement. In August 2011, Indian anti-grassroots corruption movement leader Anna Hazare conducted a 12-day hunger strike protest, which severely impacted the Congress Party and was a major reason for its crushing defeat in the 2014 general election. In recent decades, centenary parties in the UK, France, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Australia, Uruguay, Colombia, and other countries have experienced serious or even collective corruption, such as the large-scale collective corruption of British MPs from both parties, thereby damaging the party’s image.

第三，权力腐败造成的消极影响损害党的肌体。国外百年政党中除共产党外大都在政坛长期执政，由于权力交易及垄断所引发的各种丑闻对这些政党带来了严重伤害。印度国大党在2009—2014年任期内发生的电信腐败案，导致国大党政府的电信部长入狱，总理和内政部长等十几名高官也受牵连，并引发了大规模的反腐抗议运动。印度草根反腐运动领袖安纳·哈扎尔（Anan Hazare）于 2011年8月开展了连续12天的绝食抗议运动，给国大党造成严重冲击，也是导致国大党在2014年大选中惨败的重要原因。近几十年中，英、法、奥、比、加、澳、乌拉圭、哥伦比亚等国的百年政党都出现过严重腐败甚至集体腐败，如英国两党议员大规模的集体腐败，由此损害了政党形象。

Fourth, excessive policy swings have weakened the parties’ support base. Many centenary parties have repeatedly mishandled the degree of adjustment during reform processes. The British Labour Party clearly shifted rightward under Tony Blair, implementing neoliberal policies under the guise of the “Third Way,” then sharply shifted leftward under Jeremy Corbyn, promoting “21st-century socialism,” increasing the doubts of wavering groups both inside and outside the party. The German Social Democratic Party (SPD) introduced the “Agenda 2010” economic and social reform policy in the later period of Gerhard Schröder’s government—a radical reform that even right-wing parties in power would not dare to implement. This not only harmed the basic interests of a large number of the SPD’s supporters but also led former party chairman Oskar Lafontaine to lead the left wing of the party to form a new party in 2005—the Labour and Social Justice – The Electoral Alternative. After the Uruguayan Colorado Party came to power at the turn of the century, it sharply turned toward neoliberalism, which not only triggered the 2002 financial crisis but also caused it to fall to third place in the 2004 presidential election and lose power.

第四，政策左右摇摆幅度偏大，弱化了政党的支持基础。不少百年政党在调整变革过程中，屡屡发生分寸把控失据情况。英国工党在布莱尔执政时明显右转，借搞“第三条道路”推行新自由主义政策，而在科尔宾领导时期急剧左转，抛出“21世纪社会主义”，增加了党内外摇摆群体的疑虑。德国社民党在施罗德执政后期推出“2010议程”的经济社会改革政策，这是右翼政党执政时都不敢推行的激进改革，不仅损害了社民党大量支持群体的基本利益，还因此导致该党前主席奥斯卡·拉封丹（Oscar Lafontaine)率领党内左翼力量于2005年另立新党——德国劳动与社会公正抉择党。乌拉圭红党在世纪之交执政后，大幅转向新自由主义，不仅导致2002年金融危机的爆发，而且在2004年总统选举中因下滑为第三大党而下台在野。

Fifth, the drawbacks of some centenary parties with traditions of family rule and hereditary succession are becoming increasingly apparent. Among foreign centenary parties, some have long been steeped in strong personal and family colors, with power passed down through generations or skipping generations, gradually forming closed small circles, breeding unhealthy political ecosystems, blocking the promotion channels for capable cadres within the party, and hindering intra-party democracy. The cronyism fostered by family politics generally produces serious corruption, which to a certain extent damages the party’s vitality and is strongly questioned within the party and attacked by domestic political opponents. The Indian National Congress is considered a “family kingdom” and “dynastic politics.” Recently, many middle- and high-ranking cadres within the party have resigned en masse, leaving or switching parties. Rahul Gandhi, the fifth-generation leader of the Indian National Congress, has been mired in controversy both inside and outside the party, ridiculed and accused by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the media as a “spoiled rich kid.” His resignation in 2019 sounded the alarm for the Congress Party’s descent into confusion and decline.

第五，一些有着家族统治和世袭传统的百年政党弊端日显。国外百年政党中，有些政党长期浸透着浓重的个人和家族色彩，权力世代传承或者隔代继承的特点明显，逐渐形成封闭小圈子，滋生不健康的政治生态，阻塞党内有为干部的上升通道，妨碍党内民主。家族政治所催生的裙带关系大都产生严重的腐败行为，在一定程度上损害了党的生机活力，遭到党内强烈质疑和国内政敌的攻击。印度国大党被认为是“家族王国”和“王朝政治”，近期党内不少中高层领导干部密集辞职，退党转党。作为印度国大党第五代领导人的拉胡尔·甘地（Rahul Gandhi），饱受党内外争议，被印度人民党及媒体讽刺和指责为“纨绔子弟”。他在2019年辞职更是敲响了国大党陷入迷茫和衰落的警钟。

III. Some Reflections on the Rise and Fall of Centenary Parties

三、对百年政党兴衰历程的几点思考

Reviewing the development process of foreign centenary parties and summarizing their experiences and lessons can help us more accurately understand and grasp the laws of party development, and can also provide useful reference for our Party’s construction and development.

梳理国外百年政党的发展历程、总结其经验教训，有助于我们更为准确地理解和把握政党的发展规律，也可以为我们党的建设发展提供有益的镜鉴。

(1) Adherence to and unremitting pursuit of ideals and goals are the strong spiritual support of some centenary parties

（一）对理想和目标的坚守与不懈追求是一些百年政党的强大精神支撑

Although a considerable number of communist parties declined or even disappeared after the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, it should also be noted that among the centenary parties that have survived to this day in the world, more than one-third are non-ruling communist parties in various countries. Many of these communist parties have not only failed to fairly enjoy the dividends of their countries’ institutional rules but have also long been targets of suppression by mainstream domestic forces, especially conservative parties, with generally harsh environments for survival and development. However, they have withstood various severe tests, especially the Cold War and the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, survived tenaciously, and created the miracle of long-lasting weak parties. These parties have consistently adhered to their ideals, pursued social progress, defied power and oppression, and dared to struggle—this is the important spiritual force behind their continued existence.

尽管在苏东剧变后有相当一部分共产党衰落甚至消亡，但也要看到，当今世界存续至今的百年政党中，仍有超过1/3是一些国家非执政的共产党，其中许多共产党不仅未能公平享受到本国制度规则的红利，而且长期成为国内主流势力特别是保守政党的打压对象，生存发展环境总体严酷。但是，它们经受住冷战特别是苏东剧变的各种严峻考验，顽强生存下来，创造了弱党长存的奇迹。这些党一直坚持理想、追求社会进步、不畏强权打压、敢于斗争，是其存在至今的重要精神力量。

(2) The role of leaders has a direct impact on the rise and fall of parties

（二）领袖作用的发挥对政党兴衰有着直接影响

From the historical evolution of the rise and fall of foreign centenary parties, many parties were at their peak precisely when their leaders were most effective. In the 1980s, the British Conservative Party’s ability to break out of its predicament and revive Britain was directly related to the personal ideas, policies, and decisiveness of party leader Margaret Thatcher. The Indian National Congress’s dominance and “one-party supremacy” in the decades after World War II owed much to Jawaharlal Nehru. Against the backdrop of changes unseen in a century in the world today, due to the constraints of most countries’ current political systems and party systems, especially the inducements and drives of electoral politics, party cadre training and selection, and media talent shows, many parties find it difficult to cultivate leaders capable of commanding the entire party. Currently, the crises faced by some foreign centenary parties are, to some extent, also crises of the absence of capable leaders. The lack of authority and the mismatch between ability and position among leaders significantly constrain the party’s future survival and development. Felipe González Márquez, General Secretary of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, was still rated as one of the ten most important Spaniards in history years after leaving politics in 1996, and still has significant influence within the party. Due to the long-term lack of a strong leader, the party eagerly hopes for the reappearance of a figure like González.

从国外百年政党兴衰演进的历史来看，不少政党走向兴旺之时，正是其领袖大有作为的时候。20世纪80年代，英国保守党能走出重围，重振英国，与党的领袖撒切尔夫人的个人理念、政策、魄力等因素有直接关系。印度国大党在二战后几十年中能独领风骚、“一党独大”，尼赫鲁功不可没。在当今世界百年未有之大变局的背景下，由于大多数国家现行政治体制与政党制度的制约，尤其是受选举政治、党的干部培养与遴选、媒体选秀的诱导与驱动等各种政治短视行为的局限，许多党较难培育出能够驾驭全党的领袖。当前，国外一些百年政党出现的危机，在某种程度上说也是有为领袖缺位的危机，领袖没有权威、能不配位的状况在相当程度上制约着党未来的生存和发展。西班牙工人社会党总书记费利佩·冈萨雷斯·马克斯（Felipe González Márquez）在1996年离开政坛多年后，依然被评为历史上最重要的十位西班牙人之一，在党内仍有重要影响。由于多年缺乏强有力的领袖，党内十分盼望再次出现冈萨雷斯式的人物。

(3) Party unity is the lifeline ensuring the party’s survival and development

（三）党的团结是确保党生存发展的生命线

In the development of world party politics since modern times, there are not a few cases where parties split due to internal disunity and withdrew from the historical stage. Almost all foreign centenary parties today have experienced problems of internal disunity, even painful splits. The main reason is that most of them have failed to properly handle the relationships between democracy and centralism, discipline and freedom, and between stimulating party vitality and achieving party unity. The party leadership lacks sufficient political leadership skills, and party governance has failed to achieve the goal of maintaining party unity and stability. For example, the Argentine Justicialist Party, the Communist Party of Greece, and the Communist Party of Finland have all experienced such situations. Therefore, strengthening party leadership is a common epochal task facing political parties in various countries.

在近代以来的世界政党政治发展中，由于党内不团结而导致分裂并退出历史舞台的现象不在少数。当今国外的百年政党几乎都出现过党内不团结的问题，甚至经历过惨痛的分裂。主要原因在于，它们大都未能较好地处理民主与集中、纪律与自由、发挥党的活力与实现党的团结统一等关系，党的领导层缺乏足够的政治领导艺术，管党治党未能实现以维护党的团结稳定为目标导向，如阿根廷正义党、希腊共产党、芬兰共产党等不少政党都出现过此类情况。因此，加强党的领导力是各国政党普遍面临的时代课题。

(4) A mindset of keeping pace with the times and a spirit of self-reform are the keys to a party’s enduring prosperity and steady progress

（四）与时俱进的思维和自我革新的精神是一个党长盛不衰、行稳致远的关键

In the evolution of party politics in countries around the world today, competition among political parties and the survival of the fittest are natural laws. Those old parties that can prevail and endure to the present generally focus on self-criticism and self-innovation; some parties have even undergone thoroughgoing transformations, achieving rebirth from the ashes. History shows that parties that are rigid and conservative, unable to keep pace with the times, will decline and even be abandoned by the people. The Philippine Nacionalista Party was a major political party in the country for most of the 20th century, but later, due to its inability to find its correct positioning and keep up with the trends of the times and changes in development, it gradually declined in the game of domestic party politics. However, if reform is excessive and goes to extremes, it can also cause serious harm to the party; the reform of the German Social Democratic Party is one example. Therefore, grasping the proper measure is very important.

在当今世界各国政党政治演进中，政党相互竞争、优胜劣汰是自然规律。那些能够胜出、延续至今的老党，一般都注重自我批判、自我革新，有的党甚至进行了脱胎换骨的变革，实现浴火重生。历史表明，僵化保守、不能与时俱进的党就会走下坡路，甚至遭到民众抛弃。菲律宾国民党在20世纪的大多数时间里是本国主要政党，但后来由于找不准定位，跟不上时代发展变化潮流，在本国政党政治的博弈中逐渐走向没落。但是，如果过度革新、走向极端，也会对党带来严重伤害，德国社民党的改革就是一个例证。因此，度的把握十分重要。

(5) Strong executive ability is an important guarantee for a party to win popular support and consolidate its foundation

（五）强大的执行力是一个党赢得民众支持和筑牢根基的重要保障

The practice of many foreign centenary political parties shows that a party that only shouts empty slogans and aims too high cannot win genuine and lasting trust from the people. Some parties lack the solid ability to govern the party and the country; to win elections, they make unrealistic promises during campaigns, but find them difficult to fulfill while in power, thus losing the trust of the people, eventually falling from power and accelerating their decline. When the French Socialist Party was in power from 2012 to 2017, its governance commitments—such as imposing a wealth tax on the rich, introducing a citizen’s tax, reducing the medical insurance burden, and guaranteeing equal pay for men and women—either started strong but ended weakly, or were aborted midway, and were basically not implemented. For example, the “large fortune tax” was stopped under pressure not long after its implementation; the promises to create 500,000 intergenerational contract jobs and add 60,000 teaching positions within five years of governance were not fulfilled. This triggered serious discontent among its support base, leading to the party being abandoned by the majority of voters. The Canadian Conservative Party and the Argentine Justicialist Party have also experienced similar situations. Of course, it should also be noted that although some centenary parties are currently in decline, they have not completely fallen; they still possess a certain capacity for self-repair. Their parties already have a strong sense of crisis and revival, and are making efforts to save themselves.

国外众多百年政党的实践表明，一个只会空喊口号、好高骛远的党得不到民众真正和持久的信任。一些政党缺乏治党治国的过硬本领，为赢得选举而在竞选中作出不切实际的允诺，在执政中却难以兑现，因此失信于民，最终落幕下台，加速走衰。法国社会党在2012—2017年当政时提出的征收富人税、引入公民税、减轻医保负担、保障男女同工同酬等施政承诺，要么虎头蛇尾，要么中途夭折，基本未予实行。例如，“巨额财产税”未实施多久就在压力下停止，在执政五年内创造50万个代际合同岗位、新增六万个教师岗位的承诺均未实现，这引发了支持群体的严重不满，导致该党被多数选民所抛弃。加拿大保守党、阿根廷正义党也出现过类似情况。当然也要看到，尽管一些百年政党当前处于衰势，但并未没落，仍有一定的自我修复能力，其党内已经有较强的危机与重振意识，并在努力自救中。

Xi Jinping stated at the ceremony marking the centenary of the Communist Party of China that the CPC is committed to the centuries-long cause of the Chinese nation, and that a century is just the prime of life for the Party. Over the past 100 years, the CPC has united and led the Chinese people, with the dauntless spirit of “sacrificing so much, daring to change the heavens and the earth for a new world,” [7]7 A couplet from the poem “To Shaoshan Revisited” (1959) by Mao Zedong, expressing revolutionary heroism and the determination to transform the world. writing the most magnificent epic in the several-thousand-year history of the Chinese nation. The CPC has delivered an outstanding answer sheet to the people and to history. Comparing and examining the rise and fall of some foreign centenary political parties, we, as the world’s largest Marxist ruling party, have reason to be proud of the brilliant achievements created over the past century, and have the confidence to strive for the second centenary goal. [8]8 The second centenary goal refers to building China into a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful by the middle of the 21st century, the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. On the journey forward, we should take history as a mirror and strive to create the future.

习近平在庆祝中国共产党成立100周年大会上表示，中国共产党致力于中华民族的千秋伟业，百年恰是风华正茂时。100年来，中国共产党团结带领中国人民，以“为有牺牲多壮志、敢叫日月换新天”的大无畏气概，书写了中华民族几千年历史上最恢宏的史诗。中国共产党向人民、向历史交出了一份优异的答卷。比较和审视国外一些百年政党的兴衰沉浮，我们作为世界上最大的马克思主义执政党，有理由为百年创造的光辉业绩而骄傲，有底气为实现第二个百年奋斗目标而自信。在前进的征程中，我们应以史为鉴，努力开创未来。

(Authors: Qian Yingchao, School of European Languages and Cultures, Beijing Foreign Studies University; Zhong Lianfa, Contemporary World Studies Center, International Department of the CPC Central Committee)

（作者：钱颖超，北京外国语大学欧洲语言文化学院；钟连发，中联部当代世界研究中心）

Online Editor: Tongxin

网络编辑：同心