Characteristics, Causes, and Impact of the Left-Wing Resurgence in Latin America

As the pandemic of the century and changes unseen in a century overlap and intensify, the political ecology of Latin America has undergone profound evolution. In the 2021 "election year" in Latin America, left- and right-wing forces engaged in a new round of confrontation, with left-wing parties in many countries winning successive victories in presidential, parliamentary, and local elections. A "left turn" wind has swept through Latin American politics, left-wing parties have made a strong comeback, the regional balance of political forces has entered a new cycle of adjustment and restructuring, and geopolitics has opened a new pattern.

随着世纪疫情与百年变局叠加震荡，拉美政治生态深度演变。在2021年拉美“大选年”中，左右翼势力展开新一轮对决，诸多国家的左翼政党接连在总统大选、议会选举和地方选举中获胜。拉美政坛劲刮“左转”风，左翼政党强势回归，地区政治力量对比进入调整与重构的新周期，地缘政治开启新格局。

Latin American left-wing parties drive the accelerated swing of the "political pendulum"

拉美左翼政党推动“政治钟摆”加速回荡

The "pendulum effect" is a common phenomenon of the rotation of ruling and opposition roles on the international political stage. This effect is particularly pronounced in Latin America, where left- and right-wing forces alternate in taking power through protracted struggle, and the political ecology exhibits a distinct law of governance as "either left or right."

“钟摆效应”是国际政治舞台上朝野角色轮换的普遍现象，这一效应在拉美地区尤为明显，左右翼势力在经久不息的缠斗中轮替上台执政，政治生态呈现鲜明的“非左即右”执政规律。

Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic ravaging many Latin American countries, the struggles between left and right and between the executive and legislative branches within the region's countries did not diminish; instead, they used the pandemic to attack each other, with the tension of confrontation escalating in turns. The pandemic not only amplified the endogenous structural contradictions within Latin America but also exposed long-accumulated latent crises. Latin American left-wing forces seized the opportunity, exploiting the mistakes and shortcomings of right-wing ruling parties to set off a wave of electoral victories. Under the new circumstances, this resurgence of the left presents new characteristics.

在新冠肺炎疫情肆虐拉美多国的背景下，地区国家左右翼争斗和府院之争并未减弱，反而利用疫情彼此攻讦，对抗张力轮番升级。疫情不但放大了拉美地区内生结构性矛盾，而且暴露出累积已久的隐性危机。拉美左翼顺势而为，利用右翼执政党的失误与弊端，掀起一波胜选浪潮。新形势下，此番左翼回潮呈现新特征。

First, the frequency of the pendulum swing has significantly accelerated. Marked by the election of Hugo Chávez as President of Venezuela in 1998, Latin America entered a "left-wing era." Left-wing and center-left forces controlled the vast majority of Latin America, and the regional political landscape was thoroughly "red" and "pink." However, starting in 2015, a "right turn" wind began to blow in Latin America and grew increasingly strong. The left-wing government in Argentina was the first to lose power in a presidential election, forfeiting over a decade of governance. Subsequently, left-wing parties successively lost power in countries with "bellwether" political significance, such as Brazil, Peru, and Chile. Furthermore, with the coordinated efforts of internal and external forces, the countries of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), including Venezuela, Bolivia, and Cuba, also encountered the most intense challenges or upheavals since the alliance's founding. The Maduro government in Venezuela was once precarious, and Bolivian President Evo Morales lost power and fled abroad. As a result, the left gradually lost its dominant position in the regional order, the political forces in Latin America were reshuffled, forming a political pattern of "right advancing, left retreating."

第一，钟摆频率显著加快。以1998年查韦斯当选委内瑞拉总统为标志，拉美进入“左翼时代”。左翼和中左翼掌控拉美大半壁江山，地区政治版图尽显一片“红色”和“粉红色”。然而，2015年起，拉美地区始刮“右转”风，且日渐强劲。阿根廷左翼政权率先在大选中失守，十多年的执政权就此丧失。此后，左翼政党相继在巴西、秘鲁、智利等具有政治“风向标”意义的国家丢失政权。此外，在内外势力策应发力下，由委内瑞拉、玻利维亚、古巴等组成的“美洲玻利瓦尔联盟”国家也遭遇了联盟成立以来烈度最强的挑战或变故，委内瑞拉马杜罗政权一度岌岌可危，玻利维亚总统莫拉莱斯丧失政权，避走他国。由此，左翼渐失地区秩序主导权，拉美政治力量重新洗牌，形成“右进左退”的政治格局。

However, the right-wing domination of the regional political situation did not last long, and the political ecology of Latin America changed again. In 2018, the Mexican left was the first to stage a counterattack. Left-wing party candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador led by a wide margin in the presidential election from start to finish, defeating the right-wing party candidate without suspense. The counter-trend rise of the Mexican left can be described as a turning of the tide, strongly boosting the morale of the regional left. Subsequently, in 2019, the center-left in Argentina won the presidential election, and in 2020, the left in Bolivia won the presidential election. Together, they constituted a cascading "wave of electoral victories" for the regional left. In the 2021 "election year," left-wing parties pushed this resurgence to a new peak. Peruvian left-wing party candidate Pedro Castillo defeated right-wing party candidate Keiko Fujimori to be elected president; Honduran left-wing party candidate Xiomara Castro defeated the right-wing party candidate by a large margin; Chilean left-wing party candidate Gabriel Boric won the presidential election. In Chile, a so-called "model student" of neoliberalism, this election result was even more emblematic, pushing the regional left-wing resurgence to a new stage. The strong comeback of the left in Brazil, the region's largest country, consolidated this resurgence. A simulated poll by a leading Brazilian research institute for the 2022 presidential election showed that former president and left-wing party representative Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would likely defeat the current right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro by a large margin.

然而，右翼主控地区政局并未持续多久，拉美政治生态再次生变。2018年，墨西哥左翼率先逆袭，左翼政党候选人洛佩斯在总统大选中一路遥遥领先，毫无悬念地战胜右翼政党候选人。墨西哥左翼的逆势崛起可谓力挽狂澜，强烈提振了地区左翼的士气。此后，2019年阿根廷中左翼赢得总统大选，2020年玻利维亚左翼赢得总统大选，它们一起构成了地区左翼梯次“胜选潮”。在2021年“大选年”，左翼政党更是将此轮回归潮推向高点。秘鲁左翼政党候选人佩德罗·卡斯蒂略战胜右翼政党候选人藤森庆子当选总统；洪都拉斯左翼政党候选人希奥玛拉·卡斯特罗以大幅优势战胜右翼政党候选人；智利左翼政党候选人加夫列尔·博里奇赢得总统大选，在所谓新自由主义“优等生”的智利，这次选举结果更具标志性意义，将地区左翼回潮推向新阶段；地区第一大国巴西左翼的强势回归则夯实了此轮回潮。巴西权威调查机构就2022年总统大选进行模拟民调显示，前总统、左翼政党代表卢拉将大概率以较大优势完胜现任右翼总统博索纳罗。

The fact that the Latin American left, after briefly losing dominance over the regional order, quickly returned to the center of the political stage indicates that, with the intertwining and fermentation of changes unseen in a century and the pandemic of the century, the intensity of regional political games has increased, and the frequency of the Latin American political pendulum has shown an accelerating trend.

拉美左翼在短暂失去地区秩序主导权后快速回归政治舞台中心表明，伴随百年变局与世纪疫情的交织发酵，地区政治博弈的烈度随之抬升，拉美政治钟摆的频率呈现加速态势。

Second, all factions of the left have performed well in the resurgence. The Latin American left is divided into many factions, with differing platforms and types, and there is still debate in academia over their classification and nomenclature. Based on party traditions, programmatic policies, value systems, and similarities or differences in their stance towards the United States, they are usually categorized into different factions and labels, such as the so-called radical left, which advocates Chavismo and "21st-century socialism"; the left that promotes Peronism and Kirchnerism; and the moderate left and center-left. In this resurgence, all left-wing factions have performed outstandingly. Although the policy proposals of the radical left, moderate left, and center-left in various countries are not identical, they were able to take the overall situation into account, reach political consensus, form electoral alliances, and join forces to defeat the right-wing and center-right forces.

第二，左翼各派在回归潮中均有不俗表现。拉美左翼派别林立，主张和类型不一而足，至今学界对其划分和称呼仍有争议。根据政党传统、纲领政策、价值观体系及对美国主张的异同，通常有奉行查韦斯主义和“21世纪社会主义”的所谓激进左翼，推行庇隆主义和基什内尔主义的左翼，以及温和左翼、中左翼等不同派别和称谓。在此次回潮中，各左翼派别均有出色表现。多国激进左翼、温和左翼、中左翼的政策主张虽不尽相同，但为了战胜右翼，均能顾全大局，达成政治共识，结成竞选联盟，联手战胜右翼和中右翼势力。

Besides the considerable electoral gains made by the moderate left and center-left in many countries, Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua also played a role in consolidating and stabilizing the foundation for this round of left-wing resurgence. Facing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and pressure from the United States, these three countries adopted multiple measures, successfully consolidated their foundations and maintained stability, relied on the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) for mutual support, and continued to secure the "great rear area" and "basic base" of the regional left. In July 2021, Cuba experienced large-scale public protests, rare in many years, including in the capital Havana. The Cuban government took timely measures to quell the unrest and maintain stability, successfully dismantling a "color revolution" orchestrated by the United States. In November 2021, the Supreme Electoral Council of Nicaragua announced the successful re-election of the incumbent left-wing president, Daniel Ortega. The Maduro government in Venezuela, under extremely difficult circumstances, adopted a combination of measures for pandemic prevention and control and economic recovery, striving to shore up shortcomings in people's livelihoods and help the populace weather the crisis. At the same time, progress was made in the political reconciliation process between the government and the opposition. Although the negotiations were difficult and complex, the situation in Venezuela has become increasingly stable, and the Maduro government remains "shaken but not toppled."

除了多国温和左翼和中左翼在大选中斩获颇丰外，古巴、委内瑞拉、尼拉加瓜也为此轮左翼回潮起了夯基固盘的作用。面对新冠肺炎疫情蔓延和美国的打压，三国多措并举，成功固本维稳，依靠“美洲玻利瓦尔联盟”抱团取暖，继续保住地区左翼的“大后方”和“基本盘”。2021年7月，古巴发生多年罕见的包括首都哈瓦那在内的大规模民众抗议活动，古巴政府及时采取措施平乱维稳，成功瓦解美国策划的“颜色革命”。2021年11月，尼加拉瓜最高选举理事会宣布现任左翼总统奥尔特加连任成功。委内瑞拉马杜罗政权在异常艰难的困境中，采取疫情防控和恢复经济的组合拳，竭力补足民生短板，帮助民众渡过难关。同时，政府与反对派的政治和解进程取得进展。虽然谈判艰难复杂，但委内瑞拉局势日趋稳定，马杜罗政权依旧“晃而不倒”。

Third, the foundation of the left-wing resurgence is not solid, and governance is fraught with difficulties. After the successful resurgence of the Latin American left, things have not been smooth sailing. Facing the deep-seated ills and new maladies of their countries, they have not produced many effective remedies for governance. Left-wing governments not only have to face various criticisms and obstructions from the opposition but also experience discord and incessant disputes within their own ruling coalitions. After the Argentine left came to power, the radical and moderate factions within the ruling coalition found it difficult to reconcile their political views and quarreled endlessly. The serious divisions and public bickering within the ruling coalition signify a split within Peronism, severely impacting the governing foundation of the Argentine left and directly leading to the ruling coalition suffering a heavy defeat in the November 2021 midterm parliamentary elections, losing control of the Senate for the first time in nearly 40 years. Similarly, as soon as Peruvian left-wing President Pedro Castillo took office, he faced a joint impeachment motion from 28 members of the opposition bloc. The opposition exploited issues such as Castillo meeting with business representatives at his private residence, sparking public discontent and causing a sharp decline in Castillo's approval rating. According to a poll by the Peruvian Institute of Studies, the percentage of Peruvians dissatisfied with Castillo rapidly rose from 48% in October to 65% in November, casting a shadow over the prospects of left-wing governance.

第三，左翼回潮根基不牢，执政举步维艰。拉美左翼成功回潮后并非一帆风顺，面对国家的沉疴与新疾，其并未祭出多少治理良方。左翼政权不仅要面对反对派的种种诘难和阻遏，执政联盟内部也龃龉不断，纷争不已。阿根廷左翼执政后，执政联盟内部激进派和温和派政见难合，争吵不休。执政联盟的严重分歧和公开争吵意味着庇隆主义的分裂，严重影响阿根廷左翼的执政基础，直接导致执政联盟在2021年11月的议会中期选举中遭受重挫，失去了将近40年的参议院控制权。同样，秘鲁左翼总统卡斯蒂略甫一执政，便遭反对派阵营28位议员的联名弹劾。反对派炒作卡斯蒂略在私人住处会见财团代表等问题，引发民众不满，卡斯蒂略的支持率大幅下降。据秘鲁研究所民调显示，秘鲁对卡斯蒂略表示不满意的民众占比由10月的48%快速升至11月的65%，左翼执政前景堪忧。

The weak foundation of the left-wing resurgence indicates that the confrontation between left and right did not end with the conclusion of the general elections but instead initiated a new round of gaming and struggle. This also suggests that the fragility of this round of left-wing resurgence may become a new footnote to the accelerated frequency of the regional political pendulum.

左翼回潮根基不牢表明，左右翼对决并未因大选结束而终结，而是开启了新一轮博弈与较量。这也预示，此轮左翼回潮的脆弱性或将成为地区政治钟摆频率加快的新注脚。

Multiple factors drive the Latin American left-wing resurgence

多重因素推动拉美左翼回潮

This resurgence of the Latin American left is not the result of accidental factors, nor is it attributable to a single factor. Rather, it is the combined result of the region's inherent political structural factors and exogenous factors.

此番拉美左翼回潮并非偶发因素使然，亦非单一因素而成，而是地区固有的政治结构性因素和外源性因素综合作用的结果。

First, the combined effect of Latin America’s distinctive political system and party structure jointly drives the inertial resurgence of the left wing. Latin America’s political system is deeply influenced by the democratic value systems of its former colonial suzerains and the geopolitical power, the United States. On the basis of local history and traditional politics, Latin American countries have largely transplanted the Western system of separation of powers between the president and parliament and electoral democracy. However, this simply transplanted political system is clearly incompatible with the level of Latin America’s economic and social development and the social structure where the middle and lower classes constitute the main body of society. This has led to the proliferation of “ballot-box politics” and “street politics” in Latin America, where various political parties have emerged as needed and grown strong by leveraging social movements, thus forming the Latin American party structure. Although these parties have continuously split and realigned in recent years, showing a trend of “fragmentation,” the basic pattern of two major camps, left and right, has not changed, nor has the pattern of radical, moderate, and centrist factions formed within each camp during the process of party struggle. Although factions sometimes absorb each other’s propositions, leading to a trend of “centrism” among parties, the essence of the platforms of the left and right wings has not undergone major changes. The right wing advocates neoliberal policies of “marketization, privatization, and liberalization,” while the left wing advocates putting a leash on the free market, emphasizing that the state must intervene in the process of economic and social development and implement welfare policies favoring the middle and lower classes. Both the propositions of the left and right have a certain degree of rationality and appeal in Latin American countries. When the market forces championed by the right wing fail, the populace recalls the role of the state favored by the left wing. When the “big state, small market” welfare state policies advocated by the left wing fail, the populace recalls the efficiency and freedom of the market.

第一，拉美特色的政治制度和政党架构合并作用,共推左翼惯性回潮。拉美政治制度深受其原殖民宗主国和地缘政治大国美国民主价值体系的影响。在本土历史与传统政治的基础上，拉美国家基本移植了西方的总统与议会分权制衡体制和票选民主政治，但这一简单移植而来的政治制度明显与拉美经济社会发展水平及中下阶层占据社会主体的社会结构不相称，导致拉美“选票政治”“街头政治”泛滥，各类政党应运而生并利用社会运动做大做强，拉美政党架构随之形成。尽管这些年来政党不断分化组合，呈现“碎片化”趋势，但是左右翼两大阵营的基本格局未变，各自阵营在党争进程中形成的激进、温和、中间派的格局也未变。虽然各派有时会吸纳对方的主张从而使政党呈现“中间化”的趋势，但左右翼双方党纲的本质并未发生大的变化，右翼推崇“市场化、私有化、自由化”的新自由主义政策，左翼主张给自由市场套上笼头，强调国家必须介入经济社会发展进程，推行倾向中下阶层的福利政策。左右翼这两种主张在拉美国家均有一定的合理性和吸引力，当右翼推崇的市场这只手失灵时，民众便会想起左翼青睐的国家角色。当左翼主张的“大国家、小市场”福利国家政策失效时，民众又会想起市场的效率和自由。

Over the years, ruling and opposition parties in Latin America have skillfully used their respective policy advantages and the other side’s weaknesses to engage in multiple rounds of confrontation. Often, a party in opposition opposes for the sake of opposition, seeking to exploit the ruling party’s mistakes, amplify and intensify social conflicts through agitation, and strive to topple its opponent. When the left wing is in power, the government often over-intervenes in economic development and implements welfare policies that pander to the middle and lower classes. As a result, the economic pie not only fails to grow but becomes smaller to distribute, ultimately triggering public discontent and protests. The right wing then seizes the opportunity to come to power, adopting neoliberal policies. However, not only does the economy fail to escape its difficulties, but it also pays the price of increased polarization between rich and poor, inevitably ushering in a new round of street protests and social movements. The left wing then takes advantage of this to return to the stage of governance, creating a cycle of repetition. Therefore, when a “rightward turn” sweeps through Latin America, the left wing does not retreat but bides its time, waiting for another chance to fight. The left wing knows well that its popular support still exists, that the middle and lower classes remain its loyal followers, and that its banners of “welfare” and “fairness” still hold considerable appeal and attraction. In recent years, when the right wing has faced a governance crisis, the left wing has lost no time in launching street politics and social movements, urging voters to use their ballots to welcome the left wing’s triumphant return. Latin American party politics is like a pendulum; when it swings to its limit, it inevitably swings back.

多年来，拉美朝野政党娴熟运用各自政策优势和对方缺陷展开多轮对决，往往是一个政党在野时为反对而反对，设法利用执政党的失误，通过造势放大和激化社会矛盾，竭力扳倒对手。左翼执政时，政府往往过度干预经济发展，推行讨好中下层民众的福利政策，结果经济蛋糕非但没有做大，反而可分的越来越小，最终引发民众不满、走上街头。右翼乘机上台，采取新自由主义政策，结果不但经济没有脱困，反而付出贫富加剧分化的代价，照例迎来新一轮街头抗议和社会运动。左翼便借势重返执政舞台，如此循环往复。因此，当拉美劲刮“右转”风时，左翼并未偃旗息鼓，而是蓄势待发，伺机再战。左翼深知其民意尚存，中下阶层仍是其不离不弃的拥趸，其“福利”和“公平”两面大旗仍具较大的号召力和吸引力。近年来，当右翼出现执政危机时，左翼便不失时机地发起街头政治和社会运动，鼓动选民用选票迎接左翼凯旋。拉美政党政治如同钟摆，摆至尽头必然回头。

Second, the COVID-19 pandemic of the century has boosted the resurgence of the left wing. The COVID-19 pandemic has continued to ravage Latin America, with many countries becoming hard-hit areas and some experiencing historic economic recessions. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, impacted by the pandemic, the Latin American economy in 2020 showed its worst performance in 120 years. In 2021, against the backdrop of the normalization of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the economies of many Latin American countries showed signs of recovery, affected by external factors such as the spread of new coronavirus variants and disruptions to the global supply chain, the economic recovery in Latin America was characterized by a clear pattern of strong initial growth followed by a slowdown, with the subsequent recovery momentum generally weakening. The World Bank stated that in the next two years, Latin America’s economic growth will decline significantly, with the overall regional growth rate falling below 3%, returning again to the low-growth cycle before 2010. A report released by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean in October 2021 believed that Latin America is the region most severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic globally, and the social and economic development achievements made over the past few decades risk being reversed. It is estimated that Latin America’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2023-2024.

第二，世纪疫情助推左翼回潮。新冠肺炎疫情持续肆虐拉美，多国沦为疫情重灾区，部分国家经济出现历史性衰退。联合国拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会称，受疫情冲击，2020年的拉美经济呈现120年来最差态势。2021年，在新冠肺炎疫情常态化的背景下，拉美多国经济虽然出现复苏势头，但受新冠变异病毒蔓延、全球经济供应链受阻等外部因素影响，拉美经济复苏前高后低的特征明显，后续复苏势头普遍放缓。世界银行称，未来两年，拉美经济增长将显著下滑，地区总体增长率将低于3%，再次回归2010年前的低增长周期。联合国拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会2021年10月发布的报告认为，拉美是全球受新冠肺炎疫情影响最严重的地区，过去几十年取得的社会经济发展成果有可能被逆转，预计拉美人均国内生产总值（GDP）到2023—2024年才可恢复至疫前水平。

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the inherent contradictions in Latin American society and stimulated potential social crises. Social differentiation and fragmentation have directly given rise to “street movements” and “street politics” with strong Latin American characteristics. Survey results from the renowned Latin American polling firm “Latinobarómetro” show that the pandemic has had the most direct impact on the middle- and low-income groups, with its effects being more profound and lasting. About 60% of the public expressed willingness to take to the streets to voice their demands. Under the pandemic, the anger of the middle class and the despair of the impoverished classes have intertwined and fermented, and the tension of social confrontation has continued to increase. Latin America has entered a new period of high incidence of social contradictions. In this context, the pandemic has driven the accelerated change of various economic factors, leading to the rapid division of social classes, thereby driving the rise and fall of political forces. This has created favorable conditions for the large-scale resurgence of the left wing in Latin America.

新冠肺炎疫情使得拉美社会固有矛盾凸显，激发了社会潜在危机。社会分化与撕裂直接催生具有浓厚拉美特色的“街头运动”和“街头政治”。拉美著名民调机构“拉美晴雨表”的调查结果显示，疫情对中低收入阶层冲击最为直接，其影响也更加深刻和持久，约60%的民众称愿意走上街头表达诉求。疫情下，中产者的愤怒与贫困阶层的绝望交织发酵，社会对抗张力持续加大，拉美进入新一轮社会矛盾高发期。在此背景下，疫情牵动经济层面各种因素的加速变化，引发社会阶层快速分裂，从而带动政治力量的此起彼伏,这为拉美左翼大面积回潮创造了有利条件。

Third, the left wing has kept pace with the times, continuously adjusting its policies to attract voters with a new posture. In the long-term process of contending with the right wing, the left wing has gradually returned to realism, constantly summarizing experiences and lessons. It no longer rigidly adheres to its existing policy propositions but adjusts them, making them more flexible and pragmatic, thereby maximizing its ability to cater to the key demands and core interests of various social strata. While maintaining its base of voters, the left wing seeks to win over voters from the opposing camp, paying particular attention to attracting young voters through new media, new fields, and a new posture. For example, Gabriel Boric, the incoming youngest president of Chile, during his election campaign, in addition to raising the banners of left-wing state welfarism and anti-neoliberalism, and facing the flourishing trends of green economy and sustainable development, opportunistically included “carrying out green transformation and establishing an ecological government” in his campaign platform, attracting a group of voters who support global climate governance and advocate low-carbon development. To win the Peruvian presidential election, although Pedro Castillo presented himself with radical measures such as nationalization, in order to win the support of business owners, he also tried to downplay his radical left-wing image, stating that he would not establish a left-wing regime similar to those in Cuba or Venezuela. Another example is former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has already entered the pre-election state. To defeat the current President Jair Bolsonaro, he has timely adjusted his campaign strategy, absorbed the reasonable core of other parties’ policies, and proactively met with his political opponent, former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, achieving results. Cardoso explicitly stated that between Lula and Bolsonaro, he would unhesitatingly support Lula. Honduras’s first female president, Xiomara Castro, repeatedly stated during her campaign that once elected, although she would end neoliberalism, she would implement inclusive reform policies to appease the uneasy private business owners.

第三，左翼与时俱进，不断调适政策，以新姿态吸引选民。在与右翼长期博弈的进程中，左翼逐渐回归现实主义，不断总结经验教训，不再固守既有政策主张，而是对其加以调整，使之灵活化和实用化，进而最大限度迎合各阶层的关键诉求和核心利益。在保住选民基本盘的前提下，左翼设法拉拢对方阵营选民，尤其重视以新媒体、新领域、新姿态吸引年轻选民。例如，即将上任的智利最年轻总统博里奇，在竞选期间除祭出左翼国家福利主义、反新自由主义的大旗外，面对绿色经济和可持续发展的风生水起，顺势将“进行绿色转型，建立生态政府”写进竞选大纲，吸引了一批致力于全球气候治理、主张低碳发展的选民支持。卡斯蒂略为赢得秘鲁总统大选，虽以国有化等激进措施示人，但为了争取企业主的支持，也设法淡化自身激进左翼的光谱，表示不会建立类似古巴、委内瑞拉的左翼政权。又如，巴西前总统卢拉目前已提前进入大选状态，为战胜现任总统博索纳罗，适时调整竞选策略、吸收其他政党政策的合理内核；主动会见政敌前总统卡多索并取得成效，卡多索明确表示，在卢拉和博索纳罗二者之间会毫不犹豫地支持卢拉。洪都拉斯首位女总统卡斯特罗在竞选期间多次表示，一旦当选，虽然会终结新自由主义，但将推行包容性改革政策，以此安抚惶惶不安的私营企业主。

Without changing its own labels of “fairness and justice” and “state welfarism,” the Latin American left wing has actively absorbed the reasonable core of its opponents’ platforms, actively introduced new concepts, and continuously injected new momentum. This shows that under the new situation of intensified ruling-opposition struggles and left-right games in Latin America, the left wing can keep pace with the times, is good at self-innovation, and clears the shackles of its platform and conceptual obstacles for its rapid return to the center of the political stage.

拉美左翼在不改变自身“公平与正义”和“国家福利主义”标签的前提下，主动吸纳对手政纲的合理内核，积极引进新理念，不断注入新动能，表明在拉美朝野争斗和左右博弈加剧的新态势下，左翼能够与时俱进，善于自我革新，为自身快速重返政治舞台中心扫清政纲束缚与理念障碍。

The Geopolitical Effects of the Left-Wing Resurgence in Latin America

拉美左翼回潮产生的地缘政治效应

The constant oscillation between left and right in Latin America is becoming the norm. Although the domestic and foreign policies of the left and right wings have intersections, they belong to camps with significantly different party natures. If one side experiences a large-scale resurgence and thus gains dominance over the regional order, it will inevitably trigger corresponding geopolitical effects. This round of left-wing resurgence will also trigger internal and external geopolitical effects with left-wing characteristics.

拉美在左右翼间不断摇摆渐成常态。左右翼内政外交政策虽有交集，但毕竟分属政党性质差异较大的阵营，一方如大面积回潮从而掌控地区秩序主导权，必然引发相应的地缘政治效应。此轮左翼回潮，同样会引发具有左翼特征的地缘政治内外效应。

Internally, the pace of regional integration may accelerate. Regional integration is a process of collective political, economic, and cultural convergence among nation-states within a region. It requires nation-states to cede part of their national interests as a condition to obtain greater national interests from the overall benefits of integration. Latin America was the earliest among underdeveloped regions to pursue integration. However, while the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the African Union (AU), and the Arab League (AL) were successively established and have been operating effectively for many years, the Latin American Union (hereinafter referred to as the “LAU”) has yet to appear. The reasons for the lag in Latin American integration are complex and intertwined, among which the lack of internal cohesion caused by incessant left-right struggles is the main reason.

就内部而言，地区一体化步伐或有加快的可能。地区一体化是区域内民族国家政治经济文化集体趋同的进程，需要民族国家以让渡部分国家利益为条件进而在一体化的整体利益中获得更大民族利益。拉美是欠发达地区中最早推行一体化的，然而，当东盟、非盟、阿盟纷纷成立并有效运转多年时，拉美国家联盟（下称“拉盟”）却迟迟不见踪影。拉美一体化滞后的原因错综复杂，其中左右翼争斗不休而导致的内聚力不足是主因。

In Latin America, compared with the conservative right wing, which advocates national priority and national interests first, the left wing has a stronger will, greater momentum, and better results in promoting regional integration. When Hugo Chávez, the former president of Venezuela, was alive, he vigorously pushed forward the process of regional integration to realize the long-cherished wish of Simón Bolívar, the leader of Latin America's wars of independence, to establish "the broadest and most excellent union of Latin American nations." In 2011, he joined forces with left-wing forces from multiple countries to establish the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). With the active promotion of the left wing, CELAC operated effectively, various cooperation mechanisms were gradually established, and the embryonic form of a Latin American union was nearly ready to emerge. However, as the region experienced a strong "turn to the right," the left wing fell into difficulties, and the process of regional integration encountered constant obstacles. Not only did CELAC lose its former glory, but the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), which the left wing had championed, also disintegrated, and the process of regional integration fell into a stagnant and sluggish state.

在拉美，相对于主张本国优先、民族利益至上的保守主义右翼而言，左翼在推动地区一体化方面的意愿更强、动力更足、效果更好。委内瑞拉前总统查韦斯在世时，为实现拉美独立战争领导人西蒙·玻利瓦尔建立“最广泛、最卓越的拉美国家联盟”的夙愿，竭力推动地区一体化进程，联手多国左翼力量于2011年成立“拉美和加勒比共同体”（拉共体）。在左翼积极推动下，拉共体运转卓有成效，各项合作机制逐步建立，拉盟的雏形几近破茧而出。然而，随着地区劲刮“右转”风，左翼陷入困境，地区一体化进程羁绊不断，不但拉共体风光不再，而且左翼主推的“南美洲国家联盟”也分崩离析，地区一体化进程陷入徘徊不前的低迷状态。

This round of left-wing resurgence may bring new opportunities for regional integration. On September 18, 2021, under the auspices of Mexican left-wing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Sixth CELAC Summit was held in Mexico City, with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro attending upon invitation. The summit focused on themes such as strengthening regional integration, opposing external interference, cooperating on pandemic response, and addressing climate change. Leaders of left-wing countries condemned the hegemonic behavior and power politics of the United States towards regional countries. López Obrador called for "it is time to eliminate policies of blockade and unfair treatment, replacing them with mutual respect. To unite for the interests of the Americas, a new and dynamic relationship should be established among the peoples of the Americas." CELAC once again demonstrated the strong will of regional countries for independence, self-reliance, and joint self-strengthening, showcasing the long-cherished dream of the region's people for a "Latin America for Latin Americans." External observers generally believe that if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has a special affinity for regional integration, is successfully elected President of Brazil in 2022, it will further stimulate the vitality of regional integration.

此轮左翼回潮或为地区一体化带来新契机。2021年9月18日，在墨西哥左翼总统洛佩斯主持下，第六届拉共体领导人峰会在墨西哥城召开，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗应邀与会。峰会围绕加强地区一体化、反对外部干涉、开展抗疫合作、应对气候变化等主题展开。左翼国家领导人谴责美国对地区国家的霸权行为和强权政治。洛佩斯呼吁，“是时候消除封锁和不公正待遇政策了，取而代之的应该是互相尊重。为了美洲的利益团结一致，应该在美洲人民之间建立一种新的、充满活力的关系。”拉共体重现地区国家独立自主、联合自强的强烈意愿，展现地区民众孜孜追求的“拉美人的拉美”梦想。外界普遍认为，对地区一体化情有独钟的卢拉2022年如果顺利当选巴西总统，将进一步激发地区一体化的活力。

From an external perspective, the United States will increase its efforts to guard against and contain the left wing. Changes in the political ecology of the region will inevitably trigger spillover geopolitical effects. Latin America has special geopolitical, economic, and cultural ties with the United States. A large-scale resurgence of the left wing will inevitably arouse the vigilance and attention of the United States. Although Latin America is not the core consideration of the US global strategy, immigration, drugs, and containing the radical left have been three major concerns of US policy towards Latin America for successive administrations. The policies of the Latin American left towards the United States vary depending on their respective positions. Among them, the main representative countries of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), such as Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, have long been bullied and suppressed by the United States and therefore pursue policies of "breaking away from, distancing from, and opposing the United States." Consequently, they have been stigmatized by some US politicians and scholars as the "troika of tyranny," and ALBA is also known as the "anti-US alliance." Most countries governed by moderate left-wing or center-left wings, while making diplomacy with the United States a key priority, also pursue a flexible policy of "keeping a distance without breaking ties" to break free from US control. Overall, the United States adopts a strategy of "supporting the right and attacking the left" in the struggle between left and right in its "backyard," particularly guarding against moderate left-wing forces moving closer to the radical left and preventing radical left-wing countries from forming a contiguous bloc and growing in strength.

从外部看，美国将加大防范、遏制左翼的力度。域内政治生态的变化必然引发地缘政治效应外溢。拉美与美国有着特殊的地缘政治、经济、文化联系，左翼大面积回潮必然会引发美国的警惕与关注。虽然拉美不是美国全球战略的核心考量，但移民、毒品、遏制激进左翼是历届美国政府对拉政策的三大重要关切。拉美左翼对美政策因其主张各异而不同，其中，“美洲玻利瓦尔联盟”主要代表国家古巴、委内瑞拉、尼加拉瓜等国家由于长期受美国欺凌与打压而奉行“脱美、离美、反美”政策，因而被美国一些政客和学者污称为“暴政三驾马车”，“美洲玻利瓦尔联盟”也因此有“反美联盟”之别称。温和左翼或中左翼执政的国家大多在将对美外交作为关键的同时也奉行摆脱美国控制的“疏而不离”的灵活政策。总体上，美国对“后院”的左右翼之争采取“拉右打左”策略，尤其防范温和左翼向激进左翼靠拢并遏制激进左翼国家连片坐大。

Facing this round of left-wing resurgence in its "backyard," the Biden administration of the United States is intervening in the changing political ecology of Latin America on all fronts. First, it is increasing investment in and attention to Latin America, using a "carrot policy" to support right-wing governing countries. The Biden administration has stated that it will prioritize implementing the "Build Back Better World" (B3W) plan in right-wing Latin American countries to counter the influence of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Second, it is covertly supporting dissidents in countries such as Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, instigating "color revolutions" and implementing plans for regime change. Third, it is courting moderate left-wing and center-left countries, reaching a new security cooperation framework with Mexico and terminating the "Merida Initiative," which had long been used to interfere in Mexico's internal affairs. Fourth, it is using "values diplomacy" to reshape US-Latin America relations and prevent regional countries from further "turning left." The United States emphasizes maintaining the so-called "irreplaceable and unique ties" between the US and Latin America based on a democratic value system. During his visits to Colombia and Ecuador, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the United States would firmly support "vibrant, inclusive democracies that respect the rights of citizens." In summary, the left-wing resurgence has prompted the Biden administration to re-examine its policy towards Latin America, forcing it to return to realism. US-Latin America relations will be continuously adjusted in the new cycle of changes in the regional political ecology to maximize their respective strategic interests.

面对此轮“后院”左翼回潮，美国拜登政府全方位介入拉美政治生态变化进程。一是加大对拉美的投入与关注，以“胡萝卜政策”扶持右翼执政国家。拜登政府表示将优先考虑在拉美右翼国家实施“重建更美好世界”计划，以此对冲中国“一带一路”倡议的影响力。二是暗中支持古巴、委内瑞拉、尼加拉瓜等国的异见分子，策动“颜色革命”，实施变天计划。三是拉拢温和左翼、中左翼国家，与墨西哥达成新安全合作框架，终止长期用于干涉墨西哥内政的“梅里达倡议”。四是以“价值观外交”重塑美拉关系，防止地区国家进一步“左转”。美国强调以民主价值体系维系美国与拉美所谓“无可替代的独特联系”。美国国务卿布林肯访问哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔时表示，美国将坚定支持“充满活力的、包容的、尊重公民权利的民主国家”。一言概之，左翼回潮促使拜登政府重新审视对拉政策，倒逼其回归现实主义，美拉关系将在地区政治生态变化新周期中不断调适，使之最大化地符合各自战略利益。

In conclusion, this resurgence of the left wing in Latin America is the result of the combined effect of various political, economic, and social factors in the region against the backdrop of systemic shocks in global governance. The left wing's assumption of power has not eliminated the region's structural contradictions. On the contrary, the internal divisions within left-wing governing coalitions, policy imbalances, and fluctuations in public opinion indicate that opponents will be poised to strike, waiting for the next round of confrontation. The political pendulum in Latin America will continue to swing regularly, as it always has.

综上，拉美左翼此番回潮是地区政治、经济、社会各个层面因素在全球治理发生系统性震荡的背景下综合作用而成。左翼当政并未消弭地区的结构性矛盾，相反，左翼执政联盟内部的分歧、政策失衡、民意波动预示对手将蓄势待发、伺机新一轮对决，拉美政治钟摆将一如既往地规律性摆动。

Online Editor: Zhang Jian

网络编辑：张剑