2022: Can the Latin American Left Sustain Its Strong Performance?

For Latin America, the just-concluded 2021 was a year filled with hesitation and helplessness, yet also a year of harboring hope and pursuing change. During this year, left-wing movements that had been suppressed under right-wing governments revived, and left-wing political parties in many Latin American countries assumed power with a strong showing.

对于拉美来说，刚刚过去的2021年是充满彷徨与无奈的一年，也是怀抱希望、追求变革的一年。这一年中，在右翼政府执政时期遭到抑制的左翼运动再度兴起，许多拉美国家的左翼政党强势执政。

Entering 2022, Latin America will also hold general elections in Colombia and Brazil that directly concern the region’s political direction. Against the backdrop of intertwined impacts from the pandemic and economic-political difficulties, whether Latin American countries can sustain the “look left” trend in their elections merits attention.

进入2022年，拉美地区还将举行哥伦比亚和巴西这两场直接关乎地区政治走向的大选，在疫情与经济政治困局交错影响的大背景下，拉美国家能否延续大选的“向左看”风向值得关注。

Multiple Latin American Countries “Look Left” in an Attempt to Shake Off U.S. Influence

拉美多国“向左看”欲摆脱美国影响

In October 2020, Arce, the presidential candidate of Bolivia’s “Movement Toward Socialism” and former economy minister, won the general election, marking the left’s recapture of power and kicking off the resurgence of the Latin American left.

2020年10月，玻利维亚“争取社会主义运动”总统候选人、前经济部长阿尔塞在大选中获胜，标志着左翼重夺政权，为拉美左翼回潮拉开序幕。

Last year, contradictions between the Latin American left and right further intensified, and the latter’s means of maintaining its influence became more radical. In June, Castillo, the presidential candidate of Peru’s socialist party Free Peru, won the general election, achieving a historic moment of the left’s recapture of power. Subsequently, the Nicaraguan general election held on November 7 even drew direct intervention from the Biden administration, which used the Organization of American States to deny the “democratic legitimacy” of the election results; in response, Nicaragua directly chose to withdraw from that organization. Then, on December 19, Boric, the 35-year-old presidential candidate of Chile’s left-wing party alliance, successfully staged a comeback in the second round of the general election, defeating the far-right candidate Kast, achieving the left’s first return to power in Chile since the Pinochet military dictatorship. At this point, together with Mexico and Argentina, where left-wing parties had previously recaptured power, the left-wing forces of major Latin American countries achieved an overall return.

去年，拉美左翼与右翼的矛盾进一步激化，后者维护自身影响力的手段也趋于激进。6月，秘鲁社会主义政党自由秘鲁党的总统候选人卡斯蒂略在大选中获胜，实现了左翼重夺政权的历史一刻。此后，11月7日举行的尼加拉瓜大选甚至招来了拜登政府的直接干涉，并动用美洲国家组织否定选举结果的“民主合法性”，对此尼加拉瓜直接选择退出该组织作为回应。随后在12月19日，年仅35岁的智利左翼政党联盟总统候选人博里奇在大选二轮投票中成功逆袭，战胜极右翼候选人卡斯特，实现了智利自皮诺切特军政府以来左翼的首次回归。至此，连同此前左翼政党重夺政权的墨西哥和阿根廷等国，拉美主要国家的左翼力量实现了整体回归。

Another prominent feature of “looking left” is reflected in the attitudes of Latin American countries toward the United States. During the period of strong right-wing governance, the once-thriving left-wing movement entered a low ebb, and the annual meeting of left-wing parties, the “São Paulo Forum,” yielded few results. Sub-regional organizations composed of right-wing parties, such as the “South American Progress Forum” and the “Lima Group,” began to emerge. The latter coordinated and cooperated closely with the United States on regional issues such as Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. Individual left-wing countries like Mexico and Argentina were unable to play an effective role and could only “withdraw from groups to make their stance clear.”

“向左看”的另一个突出特点则体现在拉美各国对美国的态度上。在右翼强势执政时期，原本兴盛的左翼运动转入低潮，左翼政党汇集的年度会议“圣保罗论坛”也鲜有成果，由右翼党派组成的“南美进步论坛”“利马集团”等次级区域组织开始崭露头角。后者在委内瑞拉、古巴、尼加拉瓜等地区问题上与美国高频联动、密切配合，个别左翼国家如墨西哥、阿根廷等无法发挥有效作用，只得“退群明志”。

In the resurgence of the left, interactions among countries to resist U.S. influence and safeguard regional sovereignty and independence began to increase. In particular, Mexico’s left-wing president López, who had been low-key since taking office, repeatedly spoke up for the Latin American left on issues such as the anti-government protests in Cuba and the U.S. forced extradition of Venezuelan diplomats, accusing the United States of crude interference. This reflects both Mexico’s ambition to exercise its great-power aspirations in the new left-wing era of Latin America and a shift in the regional wind direction. Peru, the initiator of the “Lima Group,” also announced its withdrawal from that organization after the Castillo government took office, no longer acting as a U.S. vanguard and “meeting convener.”

在左翼回潮中，各国抵制美国影响、维护地区主权与独立的互动开始增加。特别是上台后一向低调的墨西哥左翼总统洛佩斯，接连在古巴反政府大游行和美国强行引渡委内瑞拉外交官等问题上为拉美左翼站台发声，指责美国的粗暴干涉——这既是墨西哥在拉美新左翼时代施展大国雄心抱负的表现，也是地区风向出现变化的体现。作为“利马集团”发起人的秘鲁也在卡斯蒂略政府上台后宣布退出该组织，不再充当美国的马前卒和“会议召集人”。

The Brazilian General Election Will Strike the “Final Gavel” on the Political Wind Direction

巴西大选将敲下政治风向的“定音锤”

However, the reason it is called “looking left” rather than “turning left” is that left-wing governance is not a political certainty in Latin America. The current resurgence of the left in Latin America has clear differences from the previous “Pink Tide” (i.e., the phenomenon since the end of the 20th century of multiple Latin American countries being governed by left-wing parties). This is mainly reflected in two aspects: the helplessness of the populace and the hidden concerns of governance.

然而，之所以说是“向左看”而非“向左转”，是因为左翼执政并非拉美的政治定局。当下发生在拉美的左翼回潮与此前的“粉红浪潮”（即20世纪末以来拉美多国由左翼政党执政的现象）有着明显的区别，这主要体现在民众的无奈和执政的隐忧两个方面。

On the one hand, the populace’s choice of the left in elections is more a result of dissatisfaction with right-wing governments and the resulting desire for change. In other words, the populace does not have full confidence in the left either, and the left faces severe tests if it truly wants to gain a firm foothold in this round of the “pendulum effect.” On the other hand, what the left takes over from the previous government is mostly a “mess” of internal and external troubles: Argentina’s debt crisis is increasingly severe, the aftermath of Chile’s unrest continues to ferment, and so on. The challenge facing the Latin American left is not only to lead the country out of governance difficulties in the economy, public health, and society but also to deal with endless checks and counterattacks from political opponents.

一方面，民众在大选中对左翼的选择，更多是出于对右翼政府的不满以及由此产生的求变心理。换言之，民众对于左翼也不抱有充足的信心，左翼真想在这一轮“钟摆效应”中站稳脚跟同样面临着严峻考验。另一方面，左翼从前任政府手中接过来的大多是内忧外患的“烂摊子”：阿根廷债务危机日益严峻、智利暴乱余波持续发酵等。拉美左翼面临的课题不仅是带领国家从经济、卫生、社会等治理困境中脱困，还有来自政敌无休止的制衡和反扑。

However, in recent years, the institutional shortcomings of domestic politics and economies in Latin American countries have become increasingly apparent. At the economic level, primary product exporters such as Brazil and Argentina, which rely mainly on the international commodity trade market, have structural deficiencies in production. Chile, which advocates a neoliberal economic system, has persistent imbalances in its distribution system. At the political level, multiple shocks from populism have strengthened the trend of “de-elitization” in politics, the vortex of political struggle has become increasingly turbulent, and political crises have gradually become a social norm.

然而近年来拉美国家国内政治经济的制度弊端也愈发显现。在经济层面，主要依靠国际大宗商品贸易市场的巴西、阿根廷等初级产品出口国存在生产结构的缺陷问题，崇尚新自由主义经济制度的智利则在分配制度上持续失衡；在政治层面，民粹主义的数次冲击使政治“去精英化”趋势加强，政治斗争漩涡日益湍急，政治危机逐渐成为社会常态。

Therefore, how Latin American countries can escape from sluggish economic growth and how to stabilize social sentiment on the basis of effectively controlling the pandemic both require the left, amid the joy of the resurgence wave, to invigorate their spirit, break out of the trap of party struggle and the old path of “high welfare in exchange for votes,” and explore an effective reform path.

因此，拉美国家如何从经济增长乏力中脱困，如何在有效控制疫情的基础上稳定社会民心，都需要左翼在回归潮的喜悦之余振奋精神，跳出政党斗争的怪圈和“高福利换选票”的老路，探索出一条行之有效的改革路径。

This year, Latin America will also hold two elections directly concerning the region’s political direction: one is the March general election in Colombia, a staunch U.S. ally. If left-wing candidate Petro is elected, it will directly affect the U.S. strategic layout in Latin America and loosen the “nail” the U.S. has driven deepest into the South American continent. The other is the Brazilian general election at the end of this year. Left-wing leader Lula is making a strong comeback. His decisive battle with far-right representative and current president Bolsonaro will strike the “final gavel” on the region’s political wind direction and will also profoundly influence Latin America’s positioning in the international community for years to come.

今年，拉美地区还将举行两场直接关乎地区政治走向的选举：一场是美国的铁杆盟友哥伦比亚3月的大选，左翼候选人佩德罗若能当选将直接影响美国在拉美的战略布局，松动美国在南美大陆打得最深的“钉子”；另一场则是今年年底的巴西大选，左翼领袖卢拉强势回归，他与极右翼代表、现任总统博索纳罗的决战将为地区的政治风向最终敲下“定音锤”，也将深刻影响拉美未来数年在国际社会中的定位。

(Author: Reporter for *Wenhui Daily* based in Brasília)

（作者：《文汇报》驻巴西利亚记者）

Online Editor: Zhang Jian

网络编辑：张剑