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An Analysis of 30 Years of Capitalist Transformation in Ukraine

陈爱茹:乌克兰资本主义化30年评析

· · Marxism Abroad · Studies on Marxism, 2022, no. 6 · 22 min read

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has once again made Ukraine the focus of international attention. More than 30 years ago, at the time of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine and Russia declared themselves independent sovereign states. After independence, Ukraine immediately abandoned socialism and embarked on the process of capitalist transformation. At that time, taking the capitalist road was almost the collective choice of the newly independent countries in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. In the perception of the elites and the masses of those countries at the time, systemic transformation and transition would immediately turn the country into a developed nation as "wealthy," "civilized," "democratic," and "free" as the United States and the West. On December 1, 1991, in the nationwide referendum held to confirm the Declaration of Independence adopted on August 24, as many as 93% of voters voted in favor of independence. More than 30 years have passed in the blink of an eye, and Ukraine has not become a developed country that is "wealthy," "civilized," "democratic," and "free." In the economic sphere, Ukraine's gross national product has never recovered to the level on the eve of independence in 1991. According to the 2021 per capita GDP ranking released by the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine has become the poorest country in Europe. In the political sphere, Ukraine has experienced three color revolutions [1]1 "Color revolutions" refers to a series of protest movements and regime changes in post-Soviet states, often characterized by a specific color or symbol, and widely seen as supported by Western powers to install pro-Western governments.; the result of continuously "turning westward" and "turning rightward" is that state power has been seized by politicians and oligarchs manipulated by the United States and the West, while the true public opinion of Ukraine has been ignored. In the social sphere, the gap of social polarization in Ukraine has been continuously widening: on the one hand, the 50 richest families control approximately 85% of Ukraine's GNP; on the other hand, the lives of the Ukrainian people have long failed to improve, and the national debt has been constantly increasing. In just over 30 years, Ukraine has gone from a European industrial power to the poorest country in Europe. "Taking history as a mirror, one can know the rise and fall" [2]2 "Taking history as a mirror, one can know the rise and fall" is a classical Chinese saying from the *Comprehensive Mirror for Aid in Government* (Zizhi Tongjian), compiled by Sima Guang of the Song Dynasty, emphasizing the value of historical study for understanding the cycles of political success and failure.; analyzing the changes and results of Ukraine's more than 30 years of capitalist transformation can provide useful insights for basing oneself on one's own national conditions and adhering to an independent path of development.

I. Dependent Capitalism Cannot Bring Economic Development to Ukraine

In the more than 30 years of taking the capitalist road, the key words for Ukraine's economy have been "poverty, deindustrialization, and debt." Ukraine's "economic structure has shifted from machinery manufacturing to agricultural production," and "economic growth stagnation and recession are the norm." What caused the serious disconnect between Ukraine's ideals of seeking economic development and reality? What are the deep-seated reasons for this situation in Ukraine's economy? This is the answer we seek in studying the changes and results of Ukraine's more than 30 years of transition. Lenin once pointed out: "When examining any social phenomenon in its process of development, one will always find in that phenomenon traces of the past, the foundations of the present, and the germs of the future." [3]3 This is a paraphrase of Lenin's methodological principle from works such as *What the "Friends of the People" Are and How They Fight the Social-Democrats* (1894), emphasizing the dialectical analysis of social phenomena.

Ukraine's switch to the capitalist road caused it to lose its status as an economic "top student" from the Soviet period. At the beginning of Ukraine's independence, among the CIS countries, its comprehensive national power was second only to Russia. However, after more than 30 years on the capitalist road, the hospitable and generous Ukraine, once the "breadbasket of the Soviet Union" and a top-ten advanced country in Europe during the Soviet era, has become a "Third World" country divided for various reasons. Through indicators such as the level of economic development, national wealth status, and population growth index, we can find that Ukraine's systemic transformation and transition embarked on the path of "peripheral capitalism" as argued by American scholar Immanuel Wallerstein in *The Modern World-System*, that is, the path of "dependent capitalism." Taking the path of "dependent capitalism," its economic policies are destined not to be based on the interests of the country and the nation, and thus it also predetermined that Ukraine would not choose an independent path of economic development.

In the more than 30 years of Ukraine's capitalist transformation, economic development has shown no results. Ukrainian sociologist A. A. Belenok [4]4 A. A. Belenok (А.А. Бєлєнок) is a Ukrainian sociologist and political commentator known for his critical analysis of post-Soviet capitalist transformation in Ukraine. believes that "it is precisely the restoration of capitalism that has destroyed the national economy. The harm caused by the restoration of capitalism to tens of millions of Ukrainian people, its roots and consequences, are clearly visible." This is because "the restoration of capitalism in Ukraine has led to the country's main wealth falling into the hands of a small number of upstarts, with the working people subject to these people. A minority has illegally monopolized the new opportunities provided by the market, while the vast majority have been marginalized. The well-being of the majority has never reached the level of the Soviet period." It can be seen that "the primary and foremost cause of Ukraine's economic recession is the shock therapy, predatory voucher privatization, and large-scale impoverishment brought about by the emerging capitalism after 1991."

Ukraine's economic development data confirms the view of A. A. Belenok. Since independence, Ukraine's gross national product has never recovered to its 1991 level. Through Table 1, we can see the changes in Ukraine's GNP from 1991 to 2020. From 1991 to 1993, Ukraine's GNP declined at an annual rate of about 10%. From 1994 to 2003, Ukraine's GNP basically hovered at around 50% of the 1990 level. From 2004 to 2020, the highest year for Ukraine's GNP was only 74.2% of the 1990 level.

After more than 30 years of capitalist transformation, Ukraine's national wealth has been continuously shrinking, the people's lives are in hardship, and the gap of wealth polarization has been continuously widening. Ukraine is the largest country in Europe by area and population after Russia, and has now become the poorest country on the European continent. In 2020, Ukraine's GNP was $142 billion, and its per capita GNP was $3,400. Although successive Ukrainian governments have continuously promised the people that by introducing Western social systems, the Ukrainian people can live a wealthy life like the people of Western developed countries, and "will live like Europeans," this promise has drifted further and further away from the lives of the Ukrainian people. A study conducted by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine in August 2020 showed that 65.3% of Ukrainians considered themselves poor, and 33.6% could not determine whether they were poor or middle class. According to data from the United Nations Development Programme, only 1.1% of Ukrainians considered themselves middle class. In 2020, 60% of Ukrainians lived below the poverty line; before the "Euromaidan events" (the Ukrainian "color revolution" from November 2013 to February 2014), only 20% of Ukrainians lived below the poverty line. The poverty rate among Ukraine's working population was 42.4%, meaning almost one in every two workers could not provide a decent life for themselves and their families. At the same time, the total wealth of Ukraine's 100 richest citizens increased by 42%, reaching $44.5 billion. In 2013, the family wealth of the 50 richest families accounted for approximately 85% of Ukraine's GNP.

Over the more than 30 years of capitalist transformation, Ukraine’s population has shown a continuous trend of decline. Ukraine’s total population has shrunk from 52 million during the period of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1991 to less than 34 million in 2021. According to estimates by Ukrainian scholar M.V. Kostynsky, “during the peaceful development years from 1991 to 2014, Ukraine’s population decreased by 10 million people (during the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic period, over the same length of time, Ukraine’s population increased by 10 million people).” There are two reasons. First, poverty, deteriorating medical conditions, and uncertainty about the future have led to a shortened life expectancy for the Ukrainian people. “One in every ten Ukrainians does not live past 35, and one in every two Ukrainians does not live past 60. In 2020, the number of deaths significantly exceeded the number of births; the number of births was 293,457, and the number of deaths was 616,835, with births being only half of deaths.” Second, emigration abroad has caused population losses for Ukraine. Unable to support themselves and their families, and unable to realize their life values in their homeland, many Ukrainians go abroad to seek employment. “Among Ukraine’s 15 million economically active people, 8 million are employed abroad. 80% of young people approve of emigration. In fact, the elderly also receive no support from the state, and their living standards are all below the minimum subsistence level. 77% of retirees receive a monthly income lower than the amount needed to maintain the minimum subsistence standard.”

Since independence, accompanied by population decline and the outflow of labor resources, Ukraine has lost opportunities for development. Independent Ukraine inherited a large amount of resources from the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic and obtained extremely favorable starting conditions, but it did not make good use of them. Ukraine did not establish a developed market economy; economic development was weak, human potential could not be realized, and the people’s living standards were low. Even Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal admitted: “Due to constantly changing directions of unfinished reforms, a lack of a long-term economic development strategy, corruption, and low management efficiency, all Ukrainian citizens lost 1 trillion US dollars of gross national product.” This is why unbiased analysts have to acknowledge that “Ukraine failed to preserve the image and potential it had when entering the post-Soviet era in the 1990s, and failed to become a successful post-Soviet modernized state.”

II. Three “Color Revolutions” Propelled Ukraine’s Continuous “Turn to the Right”

From independence to the present, Ukraine has experienced three “color revolutions.” This propelled Ukraine’s continuous “turn to the right,” manifested politically in following the United States and the West as the absolute authority. The reason it is said that Ukraine experienced three “color revolutions” is that Ukraine’s three regime changes all conformed to the “color revolution” script designed by the United States, were all advanced according to this script, and achieved the results the United States wanted; this has been confirmed by relevant declassified US archives.

1. The “Velvet Revolution” Boosted the Drastic Changes in Eastern Europe and the Dissolution of the Soviet Union

Ukraine’s independence was a consequence of the “color revolutions” promoted by the US Central Intelligence Agency (hereinafter “CIA”) in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Before events developed to the point of the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United States had already invested large sums of money through various means to carry out ideological infiltration in the region. The drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the dissolution of the Soviet Union are another classic case of the US CIA successfully using “color revolutions” to suppress communist ideology.

Today, the concept of “color revolutions,” the methods of operation, and the anticipated consequences are no longer unfamiliar to various sectors of society. From politicians to scholars, and even ordinary people, all know a little about “color revolutions.” However, at the time of the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, “color revolutions” were still shrouded in a mysterious veil. Even earlier, “color revolutions” were even less well-known. This is also the reason the United States could skillfully use “color revolutions” as a “trump card of soft power” to successfully suppress socialist and communist ideology.

The United States is the originator of plotting “color revolutions.” In 2022, it had been 74 years since the US CIA launched its first “color revolution.” From its inception, the “color revolution” was used to suppress communist parties and communist ideology. According to declassified US archives, as early as 1948, the CIA first applied the “color revolution” in the Italian general election. By conducting inflammatory propaganda, funding favored candidates, and meticulously planning grassroots movements, it successfully caused the Italian Communist Party to lose the election. On the surface, influence was exerted by the US State Department, the US Agency for International Development, and US-funded non-governmental organizations; covertly, the CIA accomplished the same things. This was the first time the United States, under the banner of “democracy and freedom,” used “color revolution” methods to subvert a regime abroad, and it was also the beginning of the US using non-war means to suppress communist and socialist ideology. In the words of CIA Chief Historian David Robarge, the 1948 operation became a “template” for subsequent CIA operations in “many, many countries.” On June 21, 2020, the US magazine *Foreign Affairs* website published an article titled “When the CIA Interferes in Foreign Elections—The Inside Story of Modern US Covert Operations,” publicly revealing the facts of the US engaging in “color revolutions” and subverting other countries’ regimes.

Another classic case of a “color revolution” was the overthrow of the Milošević regime in Yugoslavia in 2000. From mid-1999 to the end of 2000, the United States spent a total of approximately 40 million US dollars on the Serbia project. CIA officer John Sipher said: “We covertly supported Milošević’s opponents.” The CIA provided funds and other types of assistance to the opposition, a fact confirmed by Clinton. What was presented to the world, however, was that because Milošević cheated in the vote count, the populace erupted in large-scale protests, and Milošević was forced to resign due to his inability to quell the popular revolution.

From today’s perspective, we can only clearly recognize that the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the dissolution of the Soviet Union were actually the practical application of the US “color revolution” script in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Starting in the 1980s, the US CIA began joint operations with Soros’s hedge fund, organizing so-called “Helsinki Groups” in Kyiv, Moscow, and other major Soviet cities. Their task was to organize a psychological war and discredit the Soviet system. These groups, under the guise of “democracy and freedom,” actually aimed to change the nature of the target country’s regime through “color revolutions,” installing leaders subservient to the United States to consolidate America’s world hegemonic position. To this end, the United States invested a large amount of human and material resources. In 1989, the United States ignited the “Velvet Revolution” in Czechoslovakia, and subsequently triggered a broader “Velvet Revolution” in other socialist countries in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. In the series of “color revolutions” from 1989 to 1991, one after another, the socialist countries of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe announced the abandonment of the socialist system and communist ideology, adopting Western political systems, implementing privatization, and embracing Western liberal market economies. The United States implemented a “peaceful evolution” without firing a shot, causing most socialist countries to switch to the capitalist path, with only five countries—China, Vietnam, North Korea, Laos, and Cuba—continuing to adhere to the socialist path. The United States thereby won the “Cold War” against the Soviet Union, gained enormous geopolitical, economic, and human resource benefits, and ascended to the position of global hegemon. The results of the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the dissolution of the Soviet Union indicate that the tasks set by the US CIA were excellently accomplished.

It was precisely in this “color revolution” that Ukraine became independent from the Soviet Union, initiating a process of institutional transition and social transformation oriented towards the capitalist system.

2. Ukraine Experienced Two More “Color Revolutions” After Independence

Ukraine’s independence is one of the most significant geopolitical changes in Europe since the Second World War. “Ukraine is situated at the geopolitical center of Europe,” being the only European country located at the junction of the three blocs of the Commonwealth of Independent States, Western Europe, and Central and Eastern Europe. At the same time, influenced by historical, practical, ethnic, social, and cultural factors, the relationship between Ukraine and Russia has always been one of “very special neighbors.” “It is no secret to anyone that the West and international capital have always regarded Ukraine and its people as tools for the struggle for geopolitical dominance, and for monitoring the territory, markets, and resources of the former Soviet Union and today’s Russia.”

After the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States saw the possibility of seeking greater interests in the former Soviet and Eastern European regions. It openly violated the promise made to Soviet leader Gorbachev during German reunification that “NATO would not expand eastward,” and continuously pushed for NATO’s eastward expansion. Today, NATO has expanded from 12 founding member states to 30 member states.

In the process of advancing NATO’s eastward expansion, the United States also launched multiple “color revolutions” in the former Soviet and Eastern European regions and their peripheries, expanding the sphere of influence of the US-led West. In 2003, the “Rose Revolution” took place in Georgia; in 2004, the “Orange Revolution” occurred in Ukraine; these were followed by the “Purple Revolution” in Iraq, the “Cedar Revolution” in Lebanon, and the “Tulip Revolution” in Kyrgyzstan. This triggered the “Jasmine Revolution” in Tunisia as part of the “Arab Spring,” which then unfolded in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and Syria. Other Arab countries were also affected to varying degrees, experiencing demonstrations of a certain scale, which gradually subsided with concessions from multiple governments.

Ten years after the outbreak of the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine, in 2014, the United States launched another so-called “Revolution of Dignity.” Since Ukraine had already experienced the “Orange Revolution” in 2004, why did a “color revolution” occur again in Ukraine? This must be analyzed based on the evolution of Ukraine’s political situation. After the 2004 “Orange Revolution,” pro-Western forces were pushed onto Ukraine’s political stage. The “Orange Revolution” faction showed no improvement in governing the country, and by February 2010, Yanukovych won the presidential election and began serving as President of Ukraine. Shortly after taking office, Yanukovych implemented a series of measures to suppress pro-Western right-wing forces, nullifying the achievements of Ukraine’s “Orange Revolution.” Observing Ukraine’s political development process after independence, it can be seen that Ukraine has constantly vacillated between the West and Russia, seeking benefits from both sides. When major economic and strategic interests are involved, the measures taken by pro-Western forces and pro-Russian forces in power differ markedly. Yanukovych’s pro-Russian stance led him to hesitate in signing the Association Agreement with the European Union, which became the trigger for the new round of “color revolution” in 2014. A.A. Belenok pointed out that since the 2004 “Orange Revolution,” Ukraine had been instilling in its people the idea that Europe is a model for social system construction. However, the “European miracle” did not appear in Ukraine, and the “new life” brought endless suffering to the Ukrainian people.

3. Three “Color Revolutions” Propelled Ukraine’s Regime to Continuously “Turn Right”

“Color revolutions” have a distinct ideological character. From the first “color revolution” launched by the United States against the Italian Communist Party, to the “Velvet Revolution” [7]7 The “Velvet Revolution” refers to the non-violent transition of power in Czechoslovakia in 1989 that ended the Communist Party’s rule. promoted against the socialist systems of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, to the “Rose Revolution” in Georgia and the “Revolution of Dignity” in Ukraine, throughout this series of “color revolutions,” the three Baltic states, Georgia, and Ukraine successively introduced “decommunization” bills. This all indicates that “color revolutions” have a distinct ideological character. After the success of a “color revolution,” the politicians brought to the political stage in these countries are all those favored by the United States, who, when in power, tend to safeguard US interests and defend the US position.

After the 2014 “Revolution of Dignity,” Ukraine held elections for the Verkhovna Rada [8]8 The Verkhovna Rada is the unicameral parliament of Ukraine. in October of that year. In these elections, pro-Western and nationalist parties received widespread support from voters, and extremist nationalist parties, previously on the margins of Ukraine’s political landscape, rose rapidly. The pro-Western and radicalized stance of the newly installed Ukrainian authorities met with resistance from the predominantly ethnic Russian populations in southern and eastern Ukraine. The direct consequence was Crimea’s incorporation into Russia through a “referendum,” and the declaration of independent people’s republics in Donetsk and Luhansk. In this situation, the Ukrainian authorities refused to recognize the self-proclaimed independence of Donetsk and Luhansk and sent Ukrainian government forces to eastern Ukraine in an attempt to suppress the “rebellion,” plunging Ukraine into a state of civil war. Regarding the regime that came to power in Ukraine through the “Revolution of Dignity,” the Communist Party of Ukraine assessed it as follows: “The most reactionary right-wing populist forces and pro-Western comprador forces, for their own interests, exploited popular discontent, using pseudo-democratic rhetoric and the slogan ‘European choice first,’ to successfully subordinate the resistance movement to their struggle for power, and to the interests of the West, primarily US monopoly capital, giving the resistance movement an anti-Russian character.” To achieve this goal, the United States spent a huge amount of money, amounting to as much as $5 billion by 2014. In the report of its 49th Congress, the Communist Party of Ukraine pointed out that, to implement the “Revolution of Dignity” in Ukraine, following the practice of “color revolutions,” the United States trained thousands of armed militants equipped with sophisticated weapons both inside and outside Ukraine in advance. Long before the tragic events in Kyiv’s squares and streets in 2014, the United States began studying how to transport “protesters” to the Ukrainian capital, where they would stay, what they would eat, how medical services would be provided, how to ensure the orderly deployment of militants, how to transport car tires for burning, and how to prepare “Molotov cocktails,” and so on. Therefore, the crisis that erupted in Ukraine in early 2014 was by no means a “spontaneous” event. The “Maidan gatherings” [9]9 “Maidan” refers to Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) in Kyiv, the central site of the 2013-2014 protests that led to the “Revolution of Dignity.” in Kyiv and other “Maidan gatherings” cultivated and assembled gangs of “hundreds” and “gang battalions,” which were essentially private armies. They obeyed the orders of oligarchs or opposition figures within government institutions and were used to brutally suppress people who voiced dissatisfaction with the policies of the anti-people regime. On the surface, the “Maidan gatherings” appeared to be a unique form of civil society institution, but in reality, they were the worst form of manipulated mob politics. What was called the rule of a large group of people was actually a large group of people being used by oligarchs and politicians for their own selfish interests, diverting attention from pressing issues and plunging the people into misery.

The Ukrainian authorities, who came to power through “color revolutions,” continuously “turned right,” leading to a strange phenomenon in Ukraine: political posturing took precedence over attention to economic and livelihood development. The result was first a state of national misery, then a slide into civil war, and subsequently into the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This serves as a warning: regimes that come to power through “color revolutions” are usually comprador regimes, and the radical policies implemented by comprador regimes are detrimental to national development. Furthermore, both far-right and “far-left” policies are harmful to national development. If a country seeks development, its regime must avoid extremism. In 2014, after the new Ukrainian government took office, it targeted and suppressed citizens based on their ethnicity. This behavior was the root cause of pushing Ukraine toward division, civil war, and further into the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Whether they are ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, or other ethnic groups, they should all be citizens of Ukraine with equal rights and should receive equal status. The new Ukrainian government failed to govern from a moral high ground. The far-right policies of the Ukrainian authorities led to the country’s division, civil war, and the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, causing the country to miss opportunities for development and even turning the country into an arena for great-power games, forcing its own people to suffer the consequences of national destruction, family loss, and displacement.

III. Public Opinion Overlooked in Ukraine’s 30-Plus Years of Capitalist Transformation

Since independence, Ukraine’s socioeconomic model has been extremely unfair to the vast majority of its citizens in terms of national income distribution. Over more than 30 years of independence, a notable feature of Ukraine has been a sharp increase in inequality between the rich/super-rich and the rest of the population, especially the poor. “In the Scandinavian countries, the average income of the richest 1% of the population is 8 times that of the poorest 50%; in Europe it is roughly 13 times; in the United States, 25 times; in Ukraine it has reached almost 46 times; and in Kyiv, as high as 96 times.” [10]10 The source of this quotation is not provided in the original text; it likely originates from a study on income inequality in Ukraine. Years of social survey data show that a large proportion of the broad Ukrainian populace opposes the capitalist system, opposes the privatization of large enterprises, opposes land privatization, and hopes the state will implement a mixed economy. Unfortunately, the voices of the people have been consistently ignored.

III. The Neglected Public Opinion in Ukraine’s 30-Plus Years of Capitalist Transformation

On the attitude of Ukrainian citizens toward the country’s choice of the capitalist or socialist path. As can be seen from Table 3, between 1994 and 2016, the proportion of Ukrainian citizens supporting the capitalist path ranged from 8.9% to 17.1%, never exceeding one-fifth. Clearly, popular support for Ukraine’s turn to the capitalist path has been relatively low, which is consistent with the reality and current situation that the broad masses have gained no sense of benefit from the country’s development after the transition.

On the issue of privatization, Ukrainian citizens also hold clear attitudes. As can be observed from Table 4, citizens’ attitudes toward the privatization of small enterprises are diametrically opposed to their attitudes toward the privatization of large enterprises: the proportion of citizens in favor of privatizing small enterprises has always been higher than the proportion opposed. In 2020, 49.7% of citizens favored privatizing small enterprises, while 28.6% opposed it. Admittedly, compared with the 1990s, the number supporting small-enterprise privatization is decreasing, while the number opposing it is increasing. These data prove that, since Ukraine’s independence, the number of citizens who do not accept privatization has been growing steadily. The latest data also show that, after abandoning the illusions of the 1990s, Ukrainian citizens have opposed the privatization of the country’s main strategic resource—land—since around 2005. The gap between supporters and opponents of the land privatization system has narrowed somewhat, contrary to the content of the Memorandum of Cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, which set “tasks” for Ukraine to accelerate the liberalization of the land market, including agricultural land. Ukrainian society shows a negative attitude toward the privatization of large enterprises, small enterprises, and land, with the negative attitude toward large-enterprise privatization being even stronger. Regarding the privatization of large enterprises, around 2005 the proportion of Ukrainian citizens opposing large-enterprise privatization rose to a high level; for example, in 2006, two-thirds of respondents opposed large-enterprise privatization, while only one-tenth favored it. Thereafter, the number of opponents of large-enterprise privatization decreased somewhat, while the number of supporters nearly doubled. In the 1990s, Ukraine’s large-scale privatization deviated from the national interest. Over more than 30 years of independence, Ukraine’s working people have been unable to restrain the greed of oligarchs and financial magnates, who have not invested their income in purchasing luxury goods and consumption, nor in real estate and coastal offshore areas, but rather in national stabilization funds and returns on labor savings. Consequently, Ukrainian citizens have begun to identify more with the idea of nationalizing large enterprises.

On the role of the state in managing the economy, the majority of Ukrainian citizens support a mixed economy, that is, combining planning and the market in one economic model. This reached a maximum of 51.4% in 2016, though the number voting for a mixed economic system decreased somewhat in 2020 (see Table 5). In second place were supporters of full nationalization of the economy and a return to a fully planned economy, reaching a maximum of 33.4% in 2012, but their number is far from sufficient to restore an administrative-command socialist model. Supporters of “the market decides everything” have always been a clear minority, peaking at only 14.2% in 2017. Ukrainian citizens do not all endorse a liberal economy with minimal state intervention, which is further evidence of their rejection of the capitalist economic system.

In response to the question “How fair is the society you live in?”, 20.6% of respondents believed that the current society is one with no fairness at all, and 31.2% considered it very unfair. This means that roughly half of Ukrainian citizens (51.8%) regard their society as unfair. Over one-third of respondents (37.5%) took a middle position, which can be interpreted as believing that the society they live in is unfair in some respects and fair in others. Only 10.7% of Ukrainian citizens considered Ukrainian society fair, a clear minority.

The answers to the question of whether the national economic system serves the rich or the broad masses, along with evaluations of the fairness of the various socioeconomic systems that have taken shape in Ukraine, have led Ukrainian citizens to perceive Ukrainian society as unequal. According to social survey data from the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the overwhelming majority of respondents (71.3%) believe that Ukraine’s economic system serves only the rich; only 10.8% believe it serves the vast majority of Ukrainians; and 17.9% of respondents were unable to answer the question.

Through the above investigation and analysis, we can draw a basic conclusion: Ukraine’s 30-plus years of capitalist transformation have been 30-plus years in which Ukraine’s oligarchs and big capitalist groups have reaped actual benefits, and 30-plus years in which the broadest masses have lost a prosperous and strong country, lost a calm and stable daily life, and lost their hopes for the country’s future. This warns us that if a country’s political power is seized by oligarchs and big capitalist groups, it is inevitable that national interests and the interests of the people will not become the core considerations. (References, notes, and tables omitted)

(The author is an associate professor and master’s supervisor at the School of Marxism, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and an associate research fellow at the Institute of Marxism, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.)

Online editor: Zhang Jian

原文

俄乌冲突再次让乌克兰成为国际社会的关注焦点。30多年前,在苏联解体之际,乌克兰和俄罗斯宣布成为独立的主权国家。独立后,乌克兰立刻抛弃社会主义,开启了资本主义化进程。在当时,走资本主义道路几乎成为原苏联东欧地区新独立国家的集体选择。在当时那些国家精英和民众的认知中,改制转轨会让国家马上变成如美西方般的“富裕”“文明”“民主”和“自由”的发达国家。1991年12月1日,在乌克兰为确认8月24日通过的《独立宣言》而举行的全民公决中,高达93%的人投票赞成独立。转眼30多年过去了,乌克兰并没有成为“富裕”“文明”“民主”和“自由”的发达国家。在经济领域,乌克兰的国民生产总值始终未能恢复到1991年独立前夕的水平。根据国际货币基金组织发布的2021年人均国内生产总值排名,乌克兰成了欧洲最贫穷的国家。在政治领域,乌克兰经历了三场颜色革命,不断“向西”“向右转”的结果是,国家政权被受美西方操纵的政客和寡头把持,乌克兰真正的民意遭到忽视。在社会领域,乌克兰社会两极分化的鸿沟不断扩大:一方面,最富有的50个家族大约控制了乌克兰国民生产总值的85%;另一方面,乌克兰民众的生活长期得不到改善,国家债务不断增多。仅仅30多年,乌克兰就从一个欧洲工业强国变成了欧洲最贫穷的国家。“以史为鉴,可以知兴替”,分析乌克兰资本主义化30多年的变迁与结果,可以为立足本国国情、坚持走独立自主的发展道路提供有益启示。

一、依附型资本主义无法为乌克兰带来经济发展

在走资本主义道路的30多年里,乌克兰经济的主题词是“贫穷、去工业化、债务”,乌克兰“经济结构从机械制造转向农业生产”,“经济增长停滞和衰退是常态表现”。是什么导致乌克兰谋求经济发展的理想和现实严重脱节?造成乌克兰经济这种状况的深层次原因是什么?这是我们研究乌克兰转轨30多年的变迁与结果想要寻找的答案。列宁曾经指出:“考察任何一个社会现象的发展过程,总会在这个现象中发现过去的痕迹、现在的基础和将来的萌芽”。

乌克兰改走资本主义道路令其丧失了苏联时期的经济“优等生”地位。乌克兰独立之初,在独联体国家中,综合国力仅次于俄罗斯。然而,走资本主义道路30多年后,宽容好客的乌克兰,曾经的“苏联粮仓”,苏联时期欧洲排名前十的先进国家,变成了一个因种种原因分裂的“第三世界”国家。通过经济发展水平、国民财富状况、人口增长指数等指标,我们可以发现,乌克兰改制转轨走上的是美国学者伊曼纽尔·沃勒斯坦在《现代世界体系》中论证的“外围资本主义”道路,即“依附型资本主义”道路。走“依附型资本主义”道路,其经济政策注定不能立足于本国和本民族利益,因而也预先决定了乌克兰不会选择独立自主的经济发展道路。

乌克兰资本主义化的30多年,经济发展不见成效。乌克兰社会学家А.А.别列诺克认为,“正是复辟资本主义破坏了国家经济,资本主义复辟给数千万乌克兰民众带来伤害,其根源和后果清晰可见”。这是因为,“资本主义在乌克兰复辟导致国家的主要财富掌握在少数暴发户手中,劳动人民受制于这些人。少数人非法垄断了市场提供的新机会,而绝大多数人被边缘化。大多数人的福祉从未达到苏联时期的水平”。可见,“造成乌克兰经济衰退的最主要的、排在首位的原因是1991年后新兴资本主义带来的休克疗法、掠夺性的证券私有化和大规模贫困化”。

乌克兰的经济发展数据证实了А.А.别列诺克的观点。自独立以来,乌克兰的国民生产总值从未恢复到1991年的水平。通过表1,我们可以看到从1991—2020年乌克兰国民生产总值的变动情况。在1991—1993年间,乌克兰国民生产总值以每年约10%的速度下滑。在1994—2003年间,乌克兰国民生产总值基本上徘徊在1990年的50%的水平上。从2004—2020年,乌克兰国民生产总值最高的年份也仅是1990年的74.2%。

经过资本主义化的30多年,乌克兰国民财富不断缩减,民众生活困顿,贫富两极分化的鸿沟不断扩大。乌克兰是欧洲除俄罗斯以外面积最大和人口最多的国家,现已成为欧洲大陆最贫穷的国家。2020年,乌克兰国民生产总值为1420亿美元,人均国民生产总值为3400美元。尽管乌克兰历届政府不断地向民众许诺,通过引进西方的社会制度,乌克兰民众可以过上与西方发达国家民众一样的富裕生活,“将像欧洲人一样生活”,但是该许诺却离乌克兰民众的生活渐行渐远。乌克兰国家统计局2020年8月进行的一项研究显示,65.3%的乌克兰人认为自己是穷人,33.6%的乌克兰人无法确定自己是穷人还是中产阶级。根据联合国开发计划署的数据,只有1.1%的乌克兰人认为自己是中产阶级。2020年,60%的乌克兰人生活在贫困线以下;在“广场事件”(2013年11月—2014年2月的乌克兰“颜色革命”)之前,只有20%的乌克兰人生活在贫困线以下。乌克兰劳动人口的贫困率为42.4%,几乎每两个劳动者中就有一人无法为自己和家人提供体面的生活。与此同时,乌克兰最富有的100名公民的总财富增长了42%,达到445亿美元。2013年,最富有的50个家族的家庭财富约占到乌克兰国民生产总值的85%。

在资本主义化的30多年间,乌克兰人口呈现不断缩减态势。乌克兰总人口数已经从1991年乌克兰苏维埃社会主义共和国时期的5200万缩减到2021年的不到3400万。根据乌克兰学者M.B.科斯京斯基的估算,“在1991—2014年的和平发展年间,乌克兰人口数量减少了1000万人(在乌克兰苏维埃社会主义共和国时期,同样长的时间里,乌克兰人口数量增长了1000万人)”。原因有二。首先,贫困、医疗条件恶化、对未来的不确定性导致乌克兰民众预期寿命缩短。“每10个乌克兰人中就有1人活不过35岁,每2个乌克兰人中就有1人活不过60岁。2020年,死亡人口数明显超过出生人口数,出生人口数为293457,死亡人口数为616835,出生人口数仅是死亡人口数的1/2。”其次,移民国外给乌克兰带来人口损失。由于无法养活自己和家人,在祖国无法实现自己的人生价值,很多乌克兰人出国谋生。“在乌克兰1500万经济活跃人口中,有800万在境外就业。80%的青年人都赞同移民。事实上,老年人也得不到国家的支持,生活水平都处在最低生活标准之下。77%的退休人员领取的月收入低于维持最低生活标准所需要的数额。”

自独立以来,伴随着人口缩减和劳动力资源的外流,乌克兰丧失了发展的机会。独立后的乌克兰从乌克兰苏维埃社会主义共和国继承了大量的资源,获得了极好的起步条件,但是没有将其好好利用起来。乌克兰没有建立起发达的市场经济,经济发展乏力,人的潜能发挥不出来,人民生活水平低下。连乌克兰总理杰尼斯·什米加尔都承认:“由于尚未完成的改革不断改变方向,缺乏长期的经济发展战略、腐败、管理效率低下,乌克兰全体公民损失了1万亿美元的国民生产总值。”这就是为什么没有成见的分析人士都不得不承认,“乌克兰没能保住20世纪90年代进入后苏联时代时的形象和所拥有的潜力,没能成为一个成功的后苏联现代化国家”。

二、三场“颜色革命”推动乌克兰不断“向右转”

自独立至今,乌克兰历经了三场“颜色革命”。这推动乌克兰不断“向右转”,表现在政治上就是惟美西方“马首是瞻”。之所以说乌克兰前后经历了三场“颜色革命”,是因为乌克兰经历的三次政权更迭都符合美国设计的“颜色革命”脚本,且都是按照这个脚本推进并取得了美国想要的结果,这得到了美国相关解密档案的证实。

1.“天鹅绒革命”助推东欧剧变、苏联解体

乌克兰独立是美国中央情报局(以下简称“中情局”)在苏联、东欧推行“颜色革命”带来的后果。在事态发展到东欧剧变、苏联解体这一步之前,美国已经投入大量金钱通过各种方式在该地区进行意识形态渗透。东欧剧变、苏联解体是美国中情局运用“颜色革命”打压共产主义意识形态取得成功的又一个经典案例。

今天,“颜色革命”的概念、运作的方式方法及预期后果,已经不再让社会各界感到陌生。从政治家到学者甚至普通民众,都对“颜色革命”略知一二。但是,在东欧剧变、苏联解体之际,“颜色革命”还蒙着神秘的面纱。更早些时候,“颜色革命”更是鲜为人知。这也是美国能娴熟地运用“颜色革命”,成功打压社会主义、共产主义意识形态的“王牌软实力”。

美国是策划“颜色革命”的鼻祖,2022年距离美国中情局发动首次“颜色革命”已经过去了74年。“颜色革命”一问世,就是用来打压共产党和共产主义意识形态的。根据美国解密档案,早在1948年,中情局首次将“颜色革命”应用于意大利大选,通过展开煽动性宣传,资助中意的候选人,并精心策划基层运动,成功地让意大利共产党败选。明面上由美国国务院、美国国际开发署以及由美国资助的非政府组织施加影响,暗地里由中情局完成同样的事情。这是美国第一次打着“民主和自由”的旗帜,使用“颜色革命”手段在国外实施政权颠覆,也是美国用非战争手段压制共产主义、社会主义意识形态的开端。用中情局首席历史学家戴维·罗巴热的话讲,1948年的行动成为中情局随后在“许许多多国家”展开行动的“模板”。2020年6月21日,美国《外交》杂志网站刊发文章《当中情局干涉外国选举——美国现代秘密行动始末》,公开了美国搞“颜色革命”、颠覆他国政权的事实。

“颜色革命”的另一个经典案例是2000年在南斯拉夫颠覆米洛舍维奇政权。从1999年年中到2000年年底,美国在塞尔维亚项目上总计花费约4000万美元。中情局官员约翰·西弗说:“我们暗中支持米洛舍维奇的反对者。”中情局向反对派提供资金和其他类型的协助,克林顿确认了这一事实。而展现在世人面前的却是,因为米洛舍维奇在统计选票时作弊,民众爆发大规模抗议活动,米洛舍维奇因无力平息民众革命而被迫辞职。

站在今天的视角,我们才能清晰地认识到,东欧剧变、苏联解体实际上是美国“颜色革命”脚本在苏联东欧地区的实际应用。自20世纪80年代开始,美国中情局开始与索罗斯的对冲基金联合行动,在基辅、莫斯科和苏联其他的一些大城市组织了所谓的“赫尔辛基小组”,其任务是组织一场心理战,并让苏联制度失去威望。这些小组打着“民主和自由”的幌子,实际上是通过“颜色革命”改变目标国家的政权性质,换上对美国俯首听命的领导人,以夯实美国的世界霸主地位。为此,美国投入了大量的人力和物力。1989年,美国在捷克斯洛伐克引燃“天鹅绒革命”,并进而在苏联东欧地区的其他社会主义国家引爆了广义的“天鹅绒革命”。在1989—1991年一系列的“颜色革命”中,苏联东欧社会主义国家一个接一个地宣布放弃社会主义制度,放弃共产主义意识形态,改行西方的政治制度,改行私有制,接纳西方的自由主义市场经济。美国兵不血刃地实施了“和平演变”,使大多数社会主义国家改走资本主义道路,只有中国、越南、朝鲜、老挝和古巴五个国家继续坚持社会主义道路。美国借此赢了针对苏联的“冷战”,获得了巨大的地缘政治、经济和人力资源利益,坐上了全球霸主的地位。东欧剧变、苏联解体的结果表明,美国中情局设定的任务被出色地完成了。

正是在这场“颜色革命”中,乌克兰从苏联独立出来,开启了以资本主义制度为方向的制度转轨和社会转型进程。

2.乌克兰独立后又经历了两场“颜色革命”

乌克兰独立是第二次世界大战以来欧洲地区最重要的地缘政治变化之一。“乌克兰地处欧洲地缘政治中心”,是欧洲唯一一个地处独联体、西欧、中东欧三大集团接合部的国家。同时,受历史、现实、民族、社会、文化等诸多因素影响,乌克兰与俄罗斯之间始终是一种“非常邻国”关系。“西方和国际资本始终把乌克兰和乌克兰人民看成争夺地缘政治主导权斗争,监督原来的苏联、今天的俄罗斯的领土、市场、资源的工具,这对任何人都不是什么秘密。”

东欧剧变、苏联解体后,美国看到了在原苏联东欧地区谋求更大利益的可能性,公然违背两德统一时对苏联领导人戈尔巴乔夫许下的“北约不东扩”承诺,不断推进北约东扩。今天,北约已经从12个创始成员国拓展到30个成员国。

在推进北约东扩的进程中,美国在原苏联东欧地区及其周边地区又发动了多场“颜色革命”,扩大了以美国为首的西方的势力范围。2003年在格鲁吉亚上演“玫瑰革命”,2004年在乌克兰上演“橙色革命”,接踵而至的是伊拉克的“紫色革命”、黎巴嫩的“雪松革命”、吉尔吉斯斯坦的“郁金香革命”,引发了“阿拉伯之春”的突尼斯“茉莉花革命”,随后在埃及、利比亚、也门和叙利亚上演,其余的阿拉伯国家也都受到不同程度的影响,爆发了一定规模的示威游行,最终以多国政府的让步而逐渐平息。

在乌克兰“橙色革命”爆发10年后,2014年美国又发动了一场所谓的“尊严革命”。2004年乌克兰已爆发过“橙色革命”,为什么“颜色革命”会在乌克兰再次上演?这要根据乌克兰政局的演变来分析。2004年“橙色革命”后,亲西方势力被推上了乌克兰的政治舞台。“橙色革命”派治理国家未见起色,到2010年2月,亚努科维奇在总统大选中获胜,开始担任乌克兰总统。亚努科维奇上台不久,实施的一系列打压亲西方右翼势力的举措,让乌克兰“橙色革命”的战果付诸东流。通过观察独立后乌克兰的政治发展进程可以发现,乌克兰独立后一直在西方和俄罗斯之间左摇右摆,以求双边渔利。在涉及重大的经济和战略利益时,亲西方势力执政和亲俄罗斯势力执政时采取的措施会迥然不同。亚努科维奇的亲俄罗斯立场导致他在签署与欧盟的联系国协定时止步不前,这成为2014年新一轮“颜色革命”的导火索。А.А.别列诺克指出,自2004年“橙色革命”以来,乌克兰一直向民众灌输欧洲是社会制度建设典范的思想,不过“欧洲奇迹”在乌克兰并未出现,“新生活”给乌克兰民众带来的是无尽的苦难。

3.三场“颜色革命”助推乌克兰政权不断“向右转”

“颜色革命”具有鲜明的意识形态色彩。从美国针对意大利共产党发动第一场“颜色革命”,到针对苏联、东欧社会主义制度推动“天鹅绒革命”,再到格鲁吉亚“玫瑰革命”和乌克兰“尊严革命”,在这一系列“颜色革命”的过程中,波罗的海沿岸三国、格鲁吉亚和乌克兰先后推出“去共产主义化”法案,这都表明“颜色革命”具有鲜明的意识形态色彩。“颜色革命”成功后,这些国家中被推上政治舞台的都是美国中意的政客,执政时更倾向于维护美国的利益,捍卫美国的立场。

2014年“尊严革命”之后,乌克兰于当年10月举行了乌克兰最高拉达选举。在这次选举中,亲西方政党和民族主义政党得到选民的普遍支持,在乌克兰政治版图中处于边缘地位的极端民族主义政党在选举中迅速崛起。新上台的乌克兰当局表现出的亲西方和极端化姿态遭到了俄罗斯族人占多数的乌克兰南部和东部民众的抵制,直接后果是克里米亚通过“全民公决”的方式并入俄罗斯,顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克宣布建立独立的人民共和国。在这种情况下,乌克兰当局不承认顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克自行宣布的独立,并派出乌克兰政府军前往乌克兰东部,试图平定“叛乱”,导致乌克兰陷入内战状态。对乌克兰通过“尊严革命”上台的政权,乌克兰共产党的评价是,“最反动的右翼民粹主义力量、亲西方的买办力量为了自身的利益,利用了民众的不满,运用伪民主的辞藻和‘欧洲选择优先’的口号,成功地让反抗运动从属于他们争取政权的斗争,从属于西方,首先是美国垄断资本的利益,让反抗运动具有了反俄罗斯的性质”。为达成这一目的,美国花费了大笔资金,截至2014年就有50亿美元之巨。乌克兰共产党在第49次代表大会的报告中指出,为了在乌克兰实施“尊严革命”,按照“颜色革命”的惯例,美国在乌克兰境内外提前培训了数千名配备精良武器的武装分子。在2014年乌克兰基辅的广场和街道发生悲剧性事件之前的很长一段时间里,美国就开始研究怎么把“抗议者”运送到乌克兰的首都,住哪里,吃什么,医疗服务怎么解决,如何保证有序地安置武装分子,运送用于燃烧的汽车轮胎,准备“莫洛托夫鸡尾酒”,等等。所以,2014年年初在乌克兰爆发的危机绝不是“自发”事件。基辅“广场集会”和其他“广场集会”事件都曾培养并纠集匪帮“百人团”“匪帮营”,实际上就是私人部队。他们听命于寡头或者政府机构中的反对派,被用来残酷地压制人们发声表达对反人民政权政策的不满。从表面上看,“广场集会”像是一种独一无二的公民社会制度,实际上是被操控的暴民政治的最坏形式。所谓的一大群人的政权,实际上是一大群人被寡头和政客为了一己之私而利用,转移人们对迫切问题的关注,搞得民不聊生。

通过“颜色革命”登上政治舞台的乌克兰当局不断地“向右转”,导致乌克兰出现了一种奇怪的现象:政治表态优于关注经济和民生发展。其结果先是国家民不聊生,后是陷入内战,而后又陷入俄乌冲突。这警示我们,通过“颜色革命”上台的政权通常都是买办政权,而买办政权实施的极端化政策不利于国家发展。再进一步,极右、“极左”政策都不利于国家的发展,如果要谋求发展,一个国家的政权就要避免极端化。2014年,乌克兰新政府上台执政后,按照民族成分对国民实施打击和压制,这种行为是将乌克兰推向分裂、内战并进一步推向俄乌冲突的最根本原因。无论是俄罗斯族、乌克兰族还是其他民族,他们都应该是乌克兰具有平等权利的公民,应获得平等的地位,而乌克兰新政府未能站在道义制高点施政。乌克兰当局的极右政策,导致了国家的分裂、内战和当前的俄乌冲突,让国家错失了发展的良机,甚至还让国家变成大国博弈的场所,令本国民众承受国破家亡、流离失所的恶果。

三、乌克兰资本主义化30多年被忽视的民意

自独立以来,乌克兰的社会经济模式在国民收入分配层面对绝大多数公民极不公平。独立30多年来,乌克兰的一个显著特点是富人/超级富豪与其他人口之间,尤其是贫困人口之间的不平等大幅加剧。“在斯堪的纳维亚诸国,最富有的1%人口的平均收入是最贫穷的50%人口的平均收入的8倍,在欧洲差不多是13倍,在美国是25倍,在乌克兰几乎达到了46倍,而在基辅则高达96倍。”多年的社会调查数据显示,乌克兰广大民众中有很大的比例表示反对资本主义制度,反对大型企业私有化,反对土地私有化,希望国家执行混合经济政策。可惜的是,民众的声音一直被忽视。

关于独立后乌克兰的国家独立性问题。通过乌克兰社会监测中心的一项民意调查,我们可以一窥乌克兰民众对于国家独立性的立场和心态:66.5%的乌克兰公民认为,乌克兰不是一个真正的独立国家。受访者认为,对乌克兰影响大的外部力量分别是国际货币基金组织(45.2%)、美国(40%)和欧盟(39.4%)。73.2%的受访者认为,乌克兰走在不正确的历史发展方向上。

关于乌克兰民众对国家选择走资本主义道路或社会主义道路的态度。通过表3可以发现,1994—2016年间支持走资本主义道路的乌克兰民众占比在8.9%—17.1%之间,从未突破1/5。可见,民众对乌克兰转向资本主义道路的支持率相对较低,这也符合乌克兰转轨之后广大民众在国家发展中没有获得感的现实和现状。

对于私有化问题,乌克兰民众也有鲜明的态度。通过表4可以观察到,民众对小企业私有化的态度与对大企业私有化的态度截然相反,赞同小企业私有化的民众所占的比例始终高于反对小企业私有化的民众所占的比例。2020年,赞同小企业私有化的民众占比为49.7%,而反对小企业私有化的民众占比为28.6%。诚然,与20世纪90年代相比,支持小企业私有化的人数正在减少,而反对者的人数正在增加。这些数据证明,自乌克兰独立以来,不接受私有化的民众人数呈不断增长态势。最新数据也显示,在抛弃了20世纪90年代的幻想之后,乌克兰民众从2005年前后开始一直反对乌克兰的主要战略资源——土地的私有化。土地私有化制度的拥护者和反对者之间的裂痕有所缩小,这与国际货币基金组织合作备忘录中的内容截然相反,该备忘录为乌克兰设定了加速土地市场自由化的“任务”,其中包括农业用地。乌克兰社会对大企业、小企业的私有化、土地私有化表现出消极的态度,对大企业私有化的消极态度更加强烈。关于大企业的私有化,2005年前后乌克兰民众反对大企业私有化的占比攀升到高位,比如2006年有2/3的受访者反对大企业私有化,同时仅有1/10的受访者赞同大企业私有化。此后,大企业私有化的反对者人数有所减少,而支持者的人数增加了近一倍。20世纪90年代,乌克兰的大规模私有化背离了乌克兰的国家利益。独立30多年来,乌克兰的劳动人民没能制约住寡头和金融大亨的贪婪,他们没有把自己的收入投到购买奢侈品和消费方面,没有投资到房地产和海滨近海地区,而是投资于国家稳定基金,投资于劳动储蓄回报等。因此,乌克兰民众开始更加认同大企业国有化思想。

关于国家在管理经济中的作用,乌克兰民众支持混合经济的人占多数,即将计划和市场结合在一种经济模式中。2016年达到最大值——51.4%,2020年投票支持混合经济体制的人数有所减少(参见表5)。排在第二位的是经济全面国有化、重返全面计划经济的拥护者,2012年达到最大值——33.4%,但其数量远未达到可以促使行政命令式社会主义模式恢复的程度。“市场决定一切”的拥护者始终处于明显的少数,2017年占比最高,但也仅有14.2%。乌克兰民众并不全都赞成国家对经济干预最少的自由主义经济,这也是乌克兰民众拒绝资本主义经济制度的又一个证据。

在回答“您所生活的社会的公平程度如何”问题时,20.6%的受访者认为当前的社会是一个完全不存在公平的社会,31.2%的受访者认为非常不公平。这意味着大约一半的乌克兰民众(51.8%)认为他们的社会是不公平的。超过1/3的受访者(37.5%)持中间立场,这可以解释为:他们认为所生活的社会在某些方面是不公平的,在另一些方面是公平的。只有10.7%的乌克兰公民认为乌克兰社会是公平的,是很明显的少数。

国家经济制度是为有钱人服务还是为广大民众服务,对该问题给出的回答以及对乌克兰业已形成的各类社会经济制度公正性的评价,导致乌克兰民众形成了乌克兰社会是不平等社会的认知。根据乌克兰科学院社会学研究所的社会调查数据,绝大多数受访者(71.3%)认为乌克兰的经济制度只为有钱人服务,只有10.8%的人认为是为绝大多数乌克兰人服务,17.9%的受访者无法就该问题给出答案。

通过以上考察与分析,我们可以得出一个基本结论,乌克兰资本主义化的30多年是乌克兰寡头和大资本家集团获得实际利益的30年,是最广大民众失去繁荣富强的国家、失去平静安稳的日常生活、失去对国家未来的期盼的30年。这警示我们,一个国家的政权如果被寡头和大资本家集团攫取,也就注定了国家利益和民众利益不会成为考量的核心要素。(参考文献、注释、图表略)

(作者系中国社会科学院大学马克思主义学院副教授、硕士生导师,中国社会科学院马克思主义研究院副研究员)

网络编辑:张剑

Notes

  1. "Color revolutions" refers to a series of protest movements and regime changes in post-Soviet states, often characterized by a specific color or symbol, and widely seen as supported by Western powers to install pro-Western governments. ↩
  2. "Taking history as a mirror, one can know the rise and fall" is a classical Chinese saying from the *Comprehensive Mirror for Aid in Government* (Zizhi Tongjian), compiled by Sima Guang of the Song Dynasty, emphasizing the value of historical study for understanding the cycles of political success and failure. ↩
  3. This is a paraphrase of Lenin's methodological principle from works such as *What the "Friends of the People" Are and How They Fight the Social-Democrats* (1894), emphasizing the dialectical analysis of social phenomena. ↩
  4. A. A. Belenok (А.А. Бєлєнок) is a Ukrainian sociologist and political commentator known for his critical analysis of post-Soviet capitalist transformation in Ukraine. ↩
  5. The “Velvet Revolution” (天鹅绒革命) refers to the non-violent transition of power in Czechoslovakia in 1989, ending communist rule. The term is used here more broadly to describe similar peaceful regime changes across Eastern Europe during the 1989-1991 period.
  6. The “Helsinki Groups” (赫尔辛基小组) were informal citizen monitoring groups formed in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe after the 1975 Helsinki Accords, ostensibly to monitor human rights compliance. The text claims they were covertly organized by the CIA and Soros to undermine the Soviet system.
  7. The “Velvet Revolution” refers to the non-violent transition of power in Czechoslovakia in 1989 that ended the Communist Party’s rule. ↩
  8. The Verkhovna Rada is the unicameral parliament of Ukraine. ↩
  9. “Maidan” refers to Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) in Kyiv, the central site of the 2013-2014 protests that led to the “Revolution of Dignity.” ↩
  10. The source of this quotation is not provided in the original text; it likely originates from a study on income inequality in Ukraine. ↩