The Leftward Trend of Nordic Party Politics and Its Prospects

In September 2021, the Norwegian Labour Party became the largest party in the country’s parliamentary election, and the centre-left alliance it led won the election by a considerable margin. This election ended the eight consecutive years of rule by a centre-right party alliance dominated by the Conservative Party, making Norway the fourth Nordic country, after Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, to be governed by a centre-left party. Against the backdrop of the rapid growth of populist parties across Europe and the widespread prevalence of populism in European societies, the four Nordic countries have collectively “turned left.” This round of centre-left parties coming to power benefits from changes in the international environment and internal conditions within the Nordic countries. Their return to governance is accompanied by some new characteristics of the era and also faces new challenges under the new circumstances.

2021年9月，挪威工党在本国议会大选中成为第一大党，由其领衔的中左翼联盟在选举中以较大优势胜出。此次大选终结了以保守党为主的中右翼政党联盟连续8年的执政，挪威成为北欧地区继瑞典、芬兰、丹麦之后第四个由中左翼政党执政的国家。在欧洲各国民粹政党迅速壮大、欧洲社会民粹化大行其道的背景下，北欧四国集体“左转”。此轮中左翼政党上台执政得益于国际环境和北欧国家内部条件的变化，其重新执政伴随着一些新的时代特征，也面临着新形势下的新挑战。

The Four Nordic Countries Collectively “Turn Left”

北欧四国集体“左转”

The Nordic region was once a “bastion of European social democracy.” The Swedish Social Democratic Party once set a record of governing continuously for 44 years; the Danish Social Democratic Party was the largest party in parliament for over 70 years; the Norwegian Labour Party has governed cumulatively for 50 years since the end of World War II; and the Finnish Social Democratic Party has been a major governing party in the country since 1966. The long-term governance of centre-left parties in the Nordic countries established and perfected the welfare state system, placing the Nordic countries at the top of global happiness indices and representing the highest achievements of the basic concepts held by European social democratic parties and their concrete manifestations.

北欧地区曾是“欧洲社会民主主义的堡垒”。瑞典社会民主党曾创下连续执政44年的记录；丹麦社会民主党位居议会第一大党70余年；挪威工党自二战结束以来累计执政长达50年；芬兰社会民主党自1966年以来一直是本国的主要执政党。北欧各国中左翼政党长期执政，建立并完善福利国家制度，使北欧各国幸福指数位居全球前列，代表了欧洲社会民主主义政党所秉持的基本理念及其具象化的最高成就。

However, the situation changed at the beginning of the 21st century. Under the impact of the wave of economic globalization and the superimposed effects of factors such as the global financial crisis, terrorist attacks, and the refugee crisis, the party landscape in the Nordic countries underwent a major transformation: the long-governing Social Democratic and Labour parties successively lost in their national parliamentary elections, while right-wing populist forces grew stronger. Right-wing populist parties such as the Sweden Democrats, the Danish People’s Party, the Progress Party in Norway, and the True Finns saw their support rates surge in a short period, becoming major parties in parliament or even participating in government, playing an important role in their respective national politics. Against the backdrop of an overall rightward shift in the political environment, the Social Democratic and Labour parties in the Nordic countries successively became opposition parties and found it difficult to return to power for a long time. The predicament of centre-left parties in the Nordic countries led some scholars to hold pessimistic views about their fate, believing that even in the Nordic region, with its long history of governance and deep social foundations, centre-left parties found it hard to adapt to the new changes and circumstances since the 21st century, were no longer capable of playing a role in national politics, and could not make a comeback.

然而，21世纪初形势发生了变化。在经济全球化浪潮冲击以及全球金融危机、恐怖袭击、难民潮等因素的叠加影响下，北欧各国的政党格局发生了重大转变：曾经长期执政的社会民主党和工党在本国议会选举中纷纷落败，而右翼民粹力量不断壮大，瑞典民主党、丹麦人民党、挪威进步党、正统芬兰人党等右翼民粹政党在短时间内支持率飙升，成为议会中的主要政党甚至参与执政，在本国政治中发挥着重要作用。在政治环境整体右转的大背景下，北欧各国社会民主党和工党相继沦为在野党且长期难以重新执政。北欧各国中左翼政党的困境引发了部分学者对其命运的悲观看法，认为即使在有着长期执政历史和深厚社会基础的北欧，中左翼政党也难以适应21世纪以来的新变化、新形势，已无力在各国政治中发挥作用，难以东山再起。

However, in recent years, just as European social populism was gaining ground, centre-left parties in the Nordic countries successively won elections and became governing parties again, giving rise to a left-wing “backlash.” The first turnaround occurred in Sweden. In the 2014 parliamentary election, the Swedish Social Democratic Party won 31.01% of the vote and 113 of the 349 seats in parliament, the Green Party won 6.89% of the vote and 25 seats, and the Left Party won 5.72% of the vote and 21 seats. The centre-left three-party alliance led by the Social Democratic Party ended the rule of the centre-right party alliance composed of the Moderate Party, the Christian Democrats, the Liberals, and the Centre Party. The Social Democratic Party returned to power after eight years, and its party leader, Stefan Löfven, became Prime Minister. Four years later, in the 2018 Swedish parliamentary election, the Social Democratic Party again became the largest party in parliament with 28.26% of the vote, and in January 2019 formed a left-wing minority coalition government with the Green Party, continuing in power. In April 2019, the Finnish Social Democratic Party became the largest party in parliament with 17.7% of the vote in the parliamentary election and formed a five-party coalition government with the Centre Party, the Green Party, the Left Alliance, and the Swedish People’s Party, ending the coalition rule of the centre-right parties composed of the Finnish Centre Party, the True Finns, and the National Coalition Party. This marked the comeback of the Finnish Social Democratic Party after losing its status as the largest party in parliament in 1999. In June 2019, the Danish Social Democratic Party, led by Mette Frederiksen, became the largest party in the national parliamentary election with 25.9% of the vote and 48 seats, forming a centre-left coalition government with three left-wing parties: the Socialist People’s Party, the Social Liberal Party, and the Red-Green Alliance. In September 2021, the Norwegian Labour Party became the largest party in the parliamentary election with 26.4% of the vote and 48 seats, while its rival, the centre-right Conservative Party, won only 20.4% of the vote. The Labour Party and its coalition partners—the Centre Party and the Socialist Left Party—formed a centre-left alliance that won a total of 89 of the 169 seats in parliament. Thus, following Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, Norway also became a country governed by a centre-left party alliance led by the Labour Party.

但最近几年，就在欧洲社会民粹化大行其道之时，北欧各国中左翼政党相继赢得大选，再度成为执政党，出现了左翼“回潮”现象。首先出现转机的是瑞典，在2014年议会选举中，瑞典社会民主党以31.01%的得票率在议会349个议席中获得113个议席，绿党以6.89%的得票率获得25个议席，左翼党获得5.72%的选票和21个议席。以社会民主党为首的中左翼三党终结了当时由温和党、基督教民主党、民主党、中间党组成的中右翼政党的执政，社会民主党在时隔八年之后重新成为执政党，该党主席斯特凡·勒文出任首相。四年之后，在2018年瑞典议会选举中，社会民主党以28.26%的得票率再次位居议会第一大党，并在2019年1月与环境党组成左翼少数联合政府进而连续执政。2019年4月，芬兰社会民主党在议会选举中以17.7%的得票率成为议会第一大党，并与中间党、绿党、左翼联盟和瑞典族人民党组成五党联合政府，终结了由芬兰中间党、正统芬兰人党及民族联合党所组成的中右翼政党的联合执政，标志着芬兰社会民主党自1999年失去议会第一大党地位之后东山再起。2019年6月，由梅特·弗雷德里克森领导的丹麦社会民主党在本国议会选举中以25.9%的得票率和48个议席成为第一大党，与社会主义人民党、社会自由党及红绿联盟三个左翼政党组成了中左翼联合政府。2021年9月，挪威工党在议会选举中以26.4%的得票率和48个议席成为议会第一大党，而竞争对手中右翼的保守党仅获得20.4%的选票。工党与其联盟伙伴——中间党、社会主义左翼党组成的中左翼联盟在议会169个议席中共获89席。由此，继瑞典、芬兰、丹麦之后，挪威也成为由工党领衔的中左翼政党联合执政的国家。

Why the Centre-Left Parties Won the Elections

中左翼政党何以胜选

The centre-left parties in the four Nordic countries have successively won elections and returned to the governing stage in recent years, primarily for the following reasons.

北欧四国中左翼政党在近几年相继赢得大选并重返执政舞台，主要有以下几个方面原因。

First, the negative impacts of globalization have become prominent, and the political pendulum effect has begun to emerge. The neoliberal economic globalization that began in the 1990s, oriented toward markets and efficiency, while optimizing resource allocation, improving production efficiency, and accelerating world economic growth, also caused numerous negative consequences: it intensified competition and financial speculation among countries, increased economic risks, and caused varying degrees of impact and damage to the economies, societies, and environments of different countries. Specifically in the Nordic region, economic globalization increased the intensity of economic competition among countries in the region, slowed the growth of workers’ wages and the pace of improvement in living standards, and widened the gap between rich and poor. The arrival of a large number of immigrants reduced the degree of social homogeneity, causing opposition and even division among people of different ages, occupations, and identities, undermining social solidarity and reducing national cohesion. The negative consequences of the capitalist production and consumption model oriented toward profit maximization, such as environmental damage, have accumulated. These various factors have objectively gathered increasing momentum for the return of centre-left parties that uphold the concepts of equality and justice and advocate for greater government regulation. Therefore, from the perspective of the political pendulum effect, it was only a matter of time before party politics in the Nordic countries, with their deep social democratic foundations and traditions, shifted from right to left.

第一，全球化负面影响凸显，政治钟摆效应初现。起始于20世纪90年代以市场和效率为导向的新自由主义经济全球化在优化资源配置、提高生产效率、加速世界经济增长的同时造成了诸多负面后果：加剧了国家间的竞争和金融投机，增加了经济风险，对各国经济、社会和环境造成了不同程度的冲击和破坏。具体到北欧地区，经济全球化增加了这一地区国家间经济竞争的强度、减缓了工人工资增长和生活水平提高的速度、扩大了贫富差距；大量移民的到来导致社会均质化程度降低，造成不同年龄、不同职业、不同身份民众之间的对立乃至分裂，破坏了社会团结，降低了国家凝聚力；以利润最大化为导向的资本主义生产和消费模式所导致的环境破坏等负面后果不断累积。以上种种因素客观上为秉持平等公正理念、主张加大政府调控力度的中左翼政党的回归聚集了越来越充足的动能。因此，从政治钟摆效应的角度来看，有着深厚社会民主主义基础和传统的北欧各国政党政治从右向左转只是时间问题。

Second, the centre-left parties have adjusted their policies to absorb and cater to the demands of both left- and right-wing voters in their countries. The themes of the most recent elections in the Nordic countries differ from those of previous elections. Previous elections in these countries often focused on economic issues, most typically the 2015 Finnish election, where the Centre Party won mainly because voters hoped that its leader, Juha Sipilä, who came from a business background, could use “extraordinary measures” to reverse the country’s economic downturn. However, in the most recent elections, the ranking of economic issues has declined, while welfare state issues, refugee policies, and climate change have become the focal points of concern for voters in each country. To this end, the centre-left parties have adjusted their policies to win over more voters.

第二，中左翼政党政策回归，吸纳与迎合本国左、右翼选民的需求。北欧各国最近大选与此前大选聚焦的主题不同。此前各国大选多聚焦于经济问题，最为典型的是2015年芬兰大选，中间党胜选的主要原因是选民希望该党领袖、企业家出身的尤哈·西皮莱能以“非常手段”扭转本国的经济颓势。但在最近几年的大选中，经济议题排序下降，福利国家、难民政策和气候变化问题成为各国选民最关注的焦点议题。为此，中左翼政党通过政策调整以争取更多选民。

First, there is a strong return to welfare state policies. The welfare state system is the concretization of the concepts of freedom, equality, mutual assistance, and solidarity upheld by Nordic centre-left political parties, and it has played an important role in narrowing social gaps, easing class contradictions, and maintaining sustainable economic and social development. However, since the 1990s, the welfare state system, which was originally a solution to problems, has itself encountered problems. Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and overall economic recession, the centre-right political parties that came to power in various countries mostly implemented fiscal austerity policies, adopting measures such as cutting welfare funds and welfare programs, reducing unemployment and sickness benefits, and lowering wages, which further exacerbated social inequality. Centre-left political parties believe that the policy measures of centre-right parties, guided by the neoliberal concept that “a hungry wolf is best at hunting,” not only intensify the public’s sense of insecurity but also hinder the active participation of the labor force in the labor market, ultimately harming their own country’s economic development. Centre-left parties advocate that welfare is inseparable from individual freedom, and that universal welfare for all can promote individual freedom, thereby better stimulating individual initiative and creativity. To reverse the weakening and damage to the welfare state system during the tenure of centre-right parties, centre-left parties in various countries have strongly returned to welfare state policies. For example, the Swedish Social Democratic Party emphasized in its election manifesto the construction of a “trustworthy welfare system,” the Danish Social Democratic Party stated its aim to build a “stronger welfare society,” and the Norwegian Labour Party is committed to achieving “a fairer society.”

一是强势回归福利国家政策。福利国家制度是北欧中左翼政党所秉持的自由、平等、互助、团结理念的具体化，在缩小社会差距、缓和阶级矛盾、维系经济社会可持续发展等方面发挥过重要作用。但20世纪90年代以来，本是问题解决方法的福利国家制度本身出现了问题。在全球金融危机、欧洲债务危机及经济整体衰退大背景下上台执政的各国中右翼政党大都实行财政紧缩政策，采取诸如削减福利资金和福利项目、减少失业和疾病津贴、降低工资等措施，结果进一步加剧了社会不平等。中左翼政党认为中右翼政党在新自由主义“饥饿的狼最擅长狩猎”理念指导下的政策措施不仅加剧了民众的不安全感，而且阻碍了劳动力积极参与劳动市场，最终不利于本国经济发展。中左翼政党主张福利与个人自由密不可分，福利普惠所有人可以促进个人自由，从而更好地激发个人主动性和创造性。为扭转中右翼政党执政时期对福利国家制度的削弱和破坏，各国中左翼政党强势回归福利国家政策。如瑞典社会民主党在其竞选纲领中强调要建设“值得信赖的福利制度”，丹麦社会民主党表示要建设“更强大的福利社会”，挪威工党则致力于实现“一个更公平的社会”。

Second, they have absorbed and inherited the centre-right parties’ strict policies on refugee control. Historically, Nordic countries, due to the long-term governance of centre-left parties and their consistent adherence to humanitarian values, had repeatedly accepted war refugees. However, the refugee wave triggered by the Syrian civil war in 2015 was different from previous ones; its scale and number were overwhelming for European countries. According to statistics, approximately one million refugees/migrants from the Middle East and North Africa entered Europe in 2015, with Sweden alone receiving nearly 150,000 refugees. The influx of a large number of refugees caused a series of problems, such as security, community integration, cultural religion, social customs, and national identity, and also pushed up crime rates, triggering strong dissatisfaction among citizens and leading to the downfall of centre-left governments that had been tolerant of refugees. The exclusionary right-wing populist parties—the Sweden Democrats, the Danish People’s Party, the Progress Party in Norway, and the True Finns—catered to public opinion, advocating the priority of their own nationals’ interests, demanding strict refugee control, halting non-European immigration, and increasing refugee repatriation efforts, thereby boosting their own approval ratings. Under the overall pressure of exclusionary sentiment in the Nordic region, centre-left parties in various countries significantly adjusted their policy stance on the refugee issue, shifting from tolerance to toughness. In November 2015, the Swedish Social Democratic government introduced strict border control measures, requiring identity checks for everyone crossing the Sweden-Denmark border and proposing the closure of the Øresund Bridge connecting the two countries; the Danish Social Democratic Party, as an opposition party, supported the right-wing ruling coalition in parliament to pass a highly restrictive immigration bill, described as “Europe’s toughest,” and publicly declared in its election campaign the implementation of “immigration policy based on common sense, not compassion.” The significant rightward shift of centre-left parties on the refugee issue allowed the strict refugee control policies of the centre-right parties’ tenure to continue, thereby attracting some voters who had supported right-wing parties.

二是吸纳并继承了中右翼政党严控难民的政策。历史上，北欧各国因中左翼政党长期执政并一直秉持人道主义价值观，曾多次接收战争难民。但2015年因叙利亚内战而引发的难民潮不同以往，其规模之大、人数之多令欧洲各国难以招架。据统计，2015年进入欧洲的中东和北非难民/移民约为100万人，仅瑞典一国就接收了近15万名难民。大量难民涌入造成了诸如安全、社区融入、文化宗教、社会习俗、国家认同等一系列问题，且推高了犯罪率，引发国民的强烈不满并导致对难民持宽容态度的中左翼政府下台。主张排外的右翼民粹政党瑞典民主党、丹麦人民党、挪威进步党及正统芬兰人党迎合民意，倡导本国国民利益优先，要求采取严控难民、终止非欧洲移民入境、加大难民遣返力度等措施，借此提高自身支持率。在北欧地区整体排外的压力下，各国中左翼政党大幅调整在难民问题上的政策立场，由宽容转向强硬。2015年11月，瑞典社会民主党政府引入了严控边境的管理制度，要求核验通过瑞典—丹麦边境的每个人的身份并提议关闭连接两国的厄勒海峡大桥；丹麦社会民主党则以反对党身份在议会支持右翼执政联盟通过了极具限制性的、被称为“欧洲最严厉”的移民法案，在竞选中公开宣称要实行“基于常识而非同情的移民政策”。中左翼政党在难民问题上的大幅右转，使中右翼政党主政时期严控难民的政策得以延续，并因此吸引了部分支持右翼政党的选民。

Third, they attach great importance to the issue of climate change. In recent years, with the accumulation of the greenhouse effect, global warming has accelerated, leading to the melting of glaciers and permafrost and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather. Since most Nordic countries are located in high-latitude regions, with some countries having one-third of their territory within the Arctic Circle, the melting of glaciers caused by climate warming is no longer just a fashionable topic of conversation but a real threat to the survival of these countries. The 2021 Norwegian general election coincided with high temperatures, wildfires, and floods in many European countries, and the catastrophic scenes caused by extreme weather were shocking. Many Norwegians who previously felt that climate change was distant now believe its disastrous consequences are imminent, with some observers even calling this Norwegian election a “climate election.” Centre-left parties pay close attention to the issue of climate change, emphasizing its urgency, severity, and the necessity of taking action. However, unlike the Green Party and environmental parties, which advocate radical measures to control climate warming, the Social Democrats and the Labour Party tend to adopt gradual measures. Norwegian Labour Party leader Jonas Gahr Støre stated that a more balanced distribution of economic burdens would help reduce the difficulty of implementing stricter climate policies, comply with the Paris Agreement on climate change, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and gradually decrease the Norwegian economy’s dependence on fossil fuels. The attention given to climate change by the Social Democrats and the Labour Party, along with their relatively pragmatic response plans, addressed the public’s—especially young people’s—concerns about climate change and won voter support. Therefore, in a sense, the frequent climate disasters in Europe were also one of the factors that boosted the electoral success of centre-left parties.

三是对气候变化问题予以高度重视。近年来，随着温室效应累积，全球气候变暖加速，导致冰川和冻土融化、极端天气频发。由于北欧各国大都处于高纬度地区，有的国家领土的三分之一都在北极圈内，气候变暖导致的冰川融化已不仅是一个时髦的谈资，更是一个关乎这些国家生存的现实威胁。2021年挪威大选恰逢欧洲多国遭遇高温、山火和洪水袭击，极端天气所造成的灾难景象触目惊心。许多挪威人过去觉得气候变化很遥远，如今却认为其灾难性后果就在眼前，有观察人士甚至把此次挪威大选称为“气候大选”。中左翼政党对气候变化问题予以高度关注，强调该问题的紧迫性、严峻性和采取行动的必要性。但与力主采取激进措施以控制气候变暖的绿党和环境党不同，社会民主党和工党更倾向于采取渐进措施。挪威工党主席斯特勒表示，更加平衡地分摊经济负担将有助于降低实施更严格气候政策的难度，遵守气候变化《巴黎协定》、减少温室气体排放，逐步减少挪威经济对化石燃料的依赖。社会民主党和工党对气候变化问题的重视及其相对务实的应对方案回应了民众特别是年轻人对气候变化问题的关切，赢得了选民的支持。因此，在某种意义上可以说欧洲频发的气候灾难也是助推中左翼政党胜选的因素之一。

Third, the fragmentation of the party landscape and the relative disadvantage of centre-right parties. Nordic countries implement a multi-party system, characterized by many small parties in small countries, high voter turnout but dispersed votes, and declining vote shares for major parties. Since the 21st century, with the rise of populist forces in various countries, right-wing populist parties have entered national parliaments, the number of political parties has continued to increase, and the degree of fragmentation in the party landscape has deepened. Overall, the number of parties entering parliament in the four Nordic countries is all above seven. The increase in the number of parties has led to vote dispersion and a continuous decline in the vote shares of major parties. Taking the Swedish Social Democratic Party as an example, it won 39.9% of the vote and 144 seats in the 2002 election; 35.3% and 130 seats in 2006; 30.6% and 112 seats in 2010; 31.01% and 113 seats in 2014; and only 28.26% and 100 seats in 2018, yet it remained the largest party in parliament. In recent general elections, the original centre-right ruling parties were “punished” by voters for various reasons, placing them at a relative disadvantage. In Finland, Juha Sipilä, leader of the Centre Party, once regarded as an economic savior, provoked public dissatisfaction by implementing strict fiscal austerity policies, faced multiple boycotts from trade unions, and failed to achieve expected results in healthcare and social security reforms. In Denmark, the right-wing populist Danish People’s Party saw a sharp drop in votes due to its tough stance and extreme conservative positions on issues such as refugees and education, and dragged down by this, the “blue camp” [1]1 The “dominant culture” (Leitkultur) concept, originally German, was adopted by Nordic right-wing populist parties to argue that immigrants should assimilate into the host country’s cultural norms rather than maintain separate cultural identities. Danish Liberal Party lost its ruling position. Additionally, voters’ strong concern over climate issues actually implies dissatisfaction with the neoliberal market- and efficiency-oriented economic and social policies pursued by centre-right parties. All of the above are important reasons driving the collective “left turn” in Nordic party politics.

第三，政党格局的碎片化与中右翼政党的相对劣势。北欧各国实行多党制，政党政治的特点是国小党多、选民投票率高但选票分散、主要政党得票率不断下降。21世纪以来，随着各国民粹力量上升，右翼民粹政党纷纷进入本国议会，政党数量持续增多，政党格局碎片化程度进一步加深。总体来看，北欧四国进入议会的政党数目均在7个以上。政党数量增多导致选票分散并使主要政党得票率不断下降。以瑞典社会民主党为例，该党在2002年选举中以39.9%的得票率在议会获得144个议席；2006年以35.3%的得票率获得130个议席；2010年以30.6%的得票率获得112个议席；2014年以31.01%的得票率获得113个议席；2018年仅以28.26%的得票率获得100个议席，却依然位居议会第一大党。最近几年的大选中，原中右翼执政党因多种原因遭到选民“惩罚”，处于相对劣势。在芬兰，曾被视为经济救星的芬兰中间党领袖尤哈·西皮莱因厉行财政紧缩政策引发民众不满，多次遭到工会组织的抵制，其医疗和社会保障改革也未能取得预期成效。在丹麦，右翼民粹政党丹麦人民党因在难民、教育等问题上持强硬立场和极端保守主张而导致选票陡降，受其拖累，同属“蓝营”的丹麦自由党失去执政地位。此外，各国选民对气候议题的强烈关注实际上也隐含了对中右翼政党所奉行的、以新自由主义市场和效率为导向的经济社会政策的不满。上述种种，都是推动北欧各国政党政治集体“左转”的重要原因。

Leftward Shift with Populist Imprints

带有民粹印记的左翼化

After the Norwegian Labour Party won the parliamentary general election, and with the Swedish Social Democratic Party in continuous power and the return of the Finnish and Danish Social Democratic Parties to the ruling stage, Nordic party politics has once again shifted leftward. From changes in the balance of power between left and right, shifts in the priority order of political issues, and adjustments in policy positions, leftward shift is already a political feature of current Nordic countries. However, from the continuation of strict refugee control policies, the transformation of guiding concepts for immigrant integration, and the redefinition of the welfare state, the leftward shift in the four Nordic countries essentially bears the imprint of populism.

挪威工党赢得议会大选后，因瑞典社会民主党连续执政以及芬兰、丹麦社会民主党重返执政舞台，北欧各国政党政治重新左翼化。从左右力量对比的变化、政治议题优先顺序的转变、政策主张的调整来看，左翼化已是当前北欧国家的政治特征。不过，从严控难民政策的延续、移民融合指导理念的转变及福利国家的重新界定来看，北欧四国的左翼化实质上带有民粹主义的印记。

After the centre-left parties in the Nordic countries returned to power, they made adjustments in domestic and foreign affairs that reverted to left-wing traditions: in the economic sphere, they ended the fiscal austerity policies long enforced by centre-right parties, adopted relatively moderate economic policies, lowered personal income taxes, and raised tax rates on tobacco, alcohol, and fuel; in the social sphere, they rebuilt a stronger welfare state to strengthen comprehensive social security during the COVID-19 pandemic; they continued to oppose uncontrolled neoliberal globalization; they opposed the nationalism and populism advocated by right-wing parties; regarding their stance toward the EU, they emphasized that the EU plays an important role in common foreign and security policy, as well as in ecological and social sustainable development, supported a stronger EU to cope with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and partially reversed the anti-EU and Eurosceptic tendencies stirred up by right-wing populist parties; in foreign affairs, they committed to maintaining and strengthening rules-based multilateral cooperation, among other measures.

北欧各国中左翼政党重新执政后，在内政外交上做出了回归左翼传统的调整：在经济领域终结中右翼政党厉行多年的财政紧缩政策，实行相对温和的经济政策，降低个人所得税，提高烟酒、燃油等税率；在社会领域重建更强大的福利国家以加强新冠肺炎疫情防控期间的综合社会保障；继续反对不受控制的新自由主义全球化；反对右翼政党所倡导的民族主义和民粹主义；在对欧盟的立场上，强调欧盟在共同外交和安全、生态和社会可持续发展方面发挥了重要作用，支持一个更强大的欧盟以应对新冠肺炎疫情冲击，部分扭转了右翼民粹政党鼓噪的反欧、疑欧倾向；在外交上致力于维护和加强基于规则的多边合作等。

At the same time, however, one should also note the absorption and inheritance by Nordic centre-left parties of the positions and policies of right-wing populist parties. First, regarding refugee admission, the centre-left parties fully inherited the centre-right parties’ strict control over refugees, causing asylum-seeking refugees to be deterred and their numbers to continue declining. Second, the centre-left parties shifted their philosophy on refugee integration, making the promotion of national unity a governing goal, and accordingly adjusted the mainstream left’s long-standing integration policy guided by multiculturalism, absorbing the right-wing populist parties’ advocated integration concept centered on a “dominant culture.” On the one hand, the centre-left parties raised the threshold for immigrant inflows, increasing requirements in language, education level, work skills, and knowledge of the host country for immigrants entering Nordic countries under the pretext of family reunification; on the other hand, by increasing funding for public and private primary and secondary schools as well as various adult education programs, they improved the language abilities of already admitted immigrant families, provided immigrants with training and internship positions, pushed immigrants into the labor market, enhanced immigrants’ identification with the host country’s cultural values, and reversed various negative effects produced by multiculturalism policies. Third, the centre-left parties emphasized that welfare beneficiaries should bear responsibilities. The establishment of the Nordic welfare state system was premised on overall homogeneity. Homogeneity “is regarded as a prerequisite for the development of the special Nordic welfare state, as well as a prerequisite for its sustained support and legitimacy.” After taking office, the centre-left parties placed welfare at the top of each country’s political agenda, promising to increase funding and welfare programs and expand welfare coverage. But the centre-left parties also placed greater emphasis on the necessity of education, lifelong learning, and employment, promising to formulate action plans to push adult female refugees with low education levels and no labor skills into the labor market, ensuring that their contributions align with societal expectations. In the view of the centre-left parties, the welfare system remains universal, but immigrants who enjoy welfare also have the responsibility and obligation to accept the mainstream values of the host country.

但与此同时，也应看到北欧各国中左翼政党对右翼民粹政党主张及政策的吸纳和继承。首先，在难民准入方面，中左翼政党全盘继承了中右翼政党严控难民的政策，使申请庇护的难民知难而退，数量持续减少。其次，中左翼政党转变了难民融入问题上的理念，将促进国家一体化作为执政目标，并为此调整了主流左翼长期坚持的以多元文化主义为指导思想的融合政策，吸纳右翼民粹政党所倡导的以“主导文化”为核心的融合主张。中左翼政党一方面提高移民增量的门槛，提高对以家庭团聚名义进入北欧国家的移民在语言、受教育程度、工作技能、对所在国认知等方面的要求；另一方面通过加大对公立、私立中小学及各种成人教育的资金投入，提高已被接纳移民家庭的语言能力，向移民提供培训和实习岗位，促使移民进入劳动力市场，提升移民对所在国文化价值的认同度，扭转因多元文化主义政策所产生的各种负面影响。其三，中左翼政党强调福利受益者应承担责任。北欧福利国家制度建立的前提是整体的同质化。同质化“被视作特殊的北欧式福利国家的发展前提，也是它获得持续支持与合法性的前提”。中左翼政党执政后，将福利置于各国政治议程的优先位置，承诺要增加资金投入和福利项目，扩大福利覆盖范围。但中左翼政党也更为强调教育、终身学习和就业的必要性，承诺要制定行动计划，力促那些受教育程度低、无劳动技能的成年女性难民进入劳动力市场，确保其贡献与社会期望相符合。在中左翼政党看来，福利制度依然是普惠的，但享有福利的移民也有接受所在国主流价值观的责任和义务。

Prospects for Centre-Left Parties in Government

中左翼政党的执政前景

Under a relatively favorable political environment, the centre-left parties in the four Nordic countries achieved electoral upsets and successively returned to power, giving the region a leftward tilt. However, looking at the current situation, the prospects for centre-left parties in government still face many challenges and tests.

在相对有利的政治环境下，北欧四国的中左翼政党实现了选举逆袭，相继重新执政，使该地区呈现左翼化。但就当前情况来看，中左翼政党执政前景还面临诸多挑战和考验。

First, the leading Social Democratic and Labour parties within the centre-left camp have low vote shares and weak governing foundations. In the most recent general elections, the vote shares of the main centre-left parties—the Social Democratic parties and Labour parties—in the four Nordic countries were all below 30%, with the Finnish Social Democratic Party’s vote share even below 20%. Compared with other parties, the comparative advantage in vote share for the leading parties is not prominent, reflecting the reality of limited electorates and weak governing foundations for the Social Democratic and Labour parties.

第一，中左翼阵营中领衔的社会民主党和工党得票率不高，执政基础薄弱。在最近一次大选中，北欧四国主要中左翼政党社会民主党、工党的得票率均在30%以下，芬兰社会民主党得票率甚至不到20%。与其他政党相比，领衔政党得票率的比较优势并不突出，反映出社会民主党和工党选民有限、执政基础薄弱的现实。

Second, the stability of multi-party coalition governments faces tests. Since no single party can secure an absolute majority in a general election, all four Nordic countries have multi-party coalition governments. Differences in positions and stances on specific issues lead to tests of the stability and sustainability of multi-party coalition governments. After the Finnish general election, a five-party coalition government led by the Social Democratic Party was formed, but the Centre Party, a member of the governing coalition, withdrew its support for Prime Minister Antti Rinne due to the government’s poor handling of domestic labor disputes, causing the Social Democratic Party government, which had been in office for only six months, to collapse. A new government was later formed with Social Democratic Party deputy chair Sanna Marin as prime minister.

第二，多党联合政府的稳定性面临考验。由于没有一个政党能在大选中获得绝对多数，北欧四国均为多党联合执政。在具体议题上的立场主张不同，导致多党联合政府面对执政的稳定性及可持续性考验。芬兰大选后组成了以社会民主党为首的五党联合政府，但作为执政联盟成员的中间党因政府处理国内劳资纠纷不利撤回了对总理安蒂·林内的支持，导致执政仅6个月的社会民主党政府倒台，后又组成了由社会民主党副主席马林为总理的新一届政府。

Third, the strength of right-wing populist parties should not be underestimated. In the general elections of the four Nordic countries, the performance of right-wing populist parties varied: the Danish People’s Party saw a sharp drop in votes, while right-wing parties in Finland performed relatively well. The vote share difference between the Finnish Social Democratic Party and the Finns Party was only 0.2%, and they were separated by only one seat in parliament, making the two parties evenly matched. Right-wing populist parties will impose strong constraints on the centre-left governments led by the Social Democratic parties.

第三，右翼民粹政党的实力不容小觑。在北欧四国大选中，右翼民粹政党表现不一，丹麦人民党所获选票陡降，芬兰右翼政党却有较好表现。芬兰社会民主党与芬兰人党得票率仅差0.2%，在议会也仅有一席之差，两党呈势均力敌之势。右翼民粹政党会对社会民主党领衔的中左翼政府构成强力制约。

Fourth, centre-left governments also face tests of improving their governing effectiveness. This time, the centre-left parties came to power against a backdrop of good economic performance in each country, with unemployment and inflation rates maintained at relatively low levels, and the refugee issue basically resolved. To a large extent, voters chose centre-left parties because of dissatisfaction with centre-right party policies. Therefore, although the political pendulum is swinging in a direction favorable to centre-left parties, this does not mean they can secure a stable governing position. In fact, as traditional major parties under a multi-party system, whether they can govern long-term fundamentally depends on whether the Social Democratic and Labour parties in the Nordic countries can find a balance and provide solutions between their upheld principles and the actual needs of voters, between rebuilding a strong welfare state and maintaining economic growth, and between the urgent issue of climate change and sustainable economic development. Whether the governing plans, governing capacity, and governing effectiveness of the Nordic centre-left parties in the future will satisfy voters remains to be further observed.

第四，中左翼政府还面临提高执政成效的考验。此次中左翼政党是在各国经济表现良好、失业率和通胀率都维持在较低水平、难民问题基本得以解决的大背景下上台执政的，选民选择中左翼政党，在很大程度上是因为对中右翼政党政策的不满。因此，虽然政治钟摆正朝着有利于中左翼政党的方向摆动，但并不意味着其可以就此稳居执政地位。事实上，作为多党制下的传统大党，能否长期执政最根本的还在于北欧各国社会民主党、工党能否在所秉持的理念与选民现实需要之间、在重建一个强大的福利国家与保持经济增长之间、在亟待解决的气候变化问题与经济可持续发展之间找到平衡并提供解决方案。未来北欧各国中左翼政党的执政方案、执政能力及执政成效能否让选民满意还有待于进一步观察。

Online editor: Zhang Jian

网络编辑：张剑