马克思主义研究网Marxism Research Network

Unofficial English translation by DeepSeek, a Chinese LLM · source marxism.cass.cn

Overall Rise of Left-Wing Forces, Significant Regional Differences

周淼:总体力量上升 区域差异显著

· · Marxism Abroad · Institute of Marxism, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences · Contemporary World, 2023, no. 2 · 17 min read

In 2022, the repeated resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing Ukraine crisis, and an increasingly complex and volatile global security environment have exacerbated the global deficits in peace, development, and governance, presenting unprecedented challenges to human society. The development of foreign left-wing forces has also faced various risks and challenges. They have actively responded in theory and practice, seeking to make a difference and expand their room for development. Faced with an intricate and volatile international situation, left-wing forces around the world urgently need to exchange ideas, build consensus, and make new adjustments and responses to promote world peace, stability, and development.

2022年,新冠疫情反复延宕,乌克兰危机持续不断,全球安全形势更加复杂多变,全球和平赤字、发展赤字、治理赤字加重,人类社会面临前所未有的挑战。外国左翼力量的发展也面临各种风险和挑战,他们在理论与实践上作出积极回应,以期有所作为,谋求更大发展空间。面对错综复杂的国际局势,世界左翼力量亟需交流互鉴,凝聚共识,作出新的调整与应对,以促进世界和平、稳定与发展。

Left-Wing Forces in North America and Europe: Intensifying Political Struggles with the Right

北美、欧洲左翼:与右翼政争愈演愈烈

In recent years, as the structural crisis of capitalism in European and American countries has continued to evolve and political turmoil has intensified, left-wing forces in North America and Europe have also been in a state of flux, change, fragmentation, and reorganization. Social protest movements have surged in Europe and America, providing certain opportunities and space for the development of left-wing forces. In the United Kingdom, low wages and persistent inflation have triggered the largest wave of strikes in decades. Ordinary workers in various industries—nurses, dockworkers, airport workers, subway drivers, bus drivers, firefighters, and miners—have carried out strike movements under the leadership of trade unions. Left-wing organizations such as the Communist Party of Britain, the Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist), and the Young Communist League of Britain have participated and played an active role. In November 2022, the University and College Union organized a strike by over 70,000 university staff, affecting 2.5 million students across 150 universities—described as the "largest strike in the history of higher education" in the UK. In France, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing party La France Insoumise, joined other progressive figures in calling for a mass general strike. On October 16, 2022, tens of thousands of people held demonstrations in Paris. On October 18, protests erupted again in multiple locations across France, with several protesters clashing with police; a total of approximately 300,000 people participated in the demonstrations. On October 27, thousands of workers marched in Paris demanding higher wages. According to statistics from the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), over 100,000 people across France participated in protest activities that same day.

近年来,随着欧美国家资本主义结构性危机持续演化、政治动荡不断加剧,北美、欧洲地区的左翼力量也处在动荡与变革、分化与重组之中。欧美地区的社会抗议运动风起云涌,左翼力量有了一定的发展机遇与空间。在英国,低薪酬和持续的通货膨胀造成英国几十年以来最大规模的罢工,护士、码头工人、机场工人、地铁司机、公交车司机、消防员、矿工等不同行业的普通劳动者在工会领导下开展了罢工运动。英国共产党、英国共产党(马列)、英国共青团等左翼力量参与其中并发挥积极作用。2022年11月,英国大学和学院工会组织超过7万名大学教职工罢工,150所大学的250万学生受到影响,这是英国“高等教育史上最大规模的罢工”。在法国,左翼政党“不屈法国”领导人让-吕克·梅朗雄与其他进步人士共同号召民众发起大罢工。2022年10月16日,数万民众在巴黎举行游行示威。10月18日,法国多地再次爆发示威活动,多名抗议者与警方发生冲突,总计约有30万民众参与示威。10月27日,数千名工人在巴黎游行,要求提高工资。“法国总工会”的统计数据显示,同日法国各地共有超过10万名民众参与抗议活动。

In North America, the US-based Poor People's Campaign organized a large march of several thousand people in Washington, D.C., on June 18, 2022. The left-wing political organization Democratic Socialists of America has developed rapidly, actively participating in US political life and organizing numerous social movements; its membership surged from over 60,000 in 2019 to 92,000 in 2022. The membership of the Communist Party USA also grew rapidly from 5,000 in 2018 to 11,000 in 2022. Additionally, the progressive caucus within the US Democratic Party increased its seats in Congress to 101 by March 2022, surpassing the moderate caucus in numbers for the first time. This caucus advocates for addressing poverty and income inequality, eliminating structural racism, cutting military spending, and strengthening oversight of financial institutions, while opposing revolving-door politics and privileges for the wealthy. Its first chair was left-wing Senator Bernie Sanders. In Canada, the left-wing party Québec Solidaire gained one additional seat in the Quebec parliamentary elections held in October 2022, securing a total of 11 seats and ranking third in the legislature.

在北美,美国“穷人运动”组织于2022年6月18日在华盛顿组织了一场数千人参加的大规模游行。美国左翼政治组织“民主社会主义者”发展迅速,它积极参与美国政治生活,组织了大量社会运动,成员人数由2019年的6万余人快速攀升至2022年的9.2万人。美国共产党的党员人数也由2018年的5000人快速增长至2022年的1.1万人。另外,美国民主党内的进步派党团在国会中的席位在2022年3月增至101名,在人数上首次超过温和派党团。该党团主张解决贫困与收入不平等问题、消除结构性种族主义、削减军费、加强金融机构监管,反对旋转门政治与富人特权,其首任主席是左翼参议员伯尼·桑德斯。在加拿大,左翼政党魁北克团结党在2022年10月举行的魁北克议会选举中新增1个席位,共获得11个席位,位列议会第三位。

In Europe, a structural rightward shift in the political landscape is very evident. Far-right parties in France, Spain, Italy, Sweden, and other countries have developed rapidly and, in some cases, come to power. The problem of left-wing fragmentation remains severe, with left-wing forces showing markedly different development trends: Green parties, responding to environmental demands, have seen their influence rise, while traditional left-wing parties such as social democratic parties and socialist parties have struggled to develop. Currently, the development circumstances of European left-wing parties can be roughly divided into three categories.

在欧洲,政坛结构性右转的倾向十分明显,法国、西班牙、意大利、瑞典等国的极右翼政党发展迅猛并在部分国家上台执政。左翼碎片化问题依然严峻,左翼力量呈现出截然不同的发展态势,顺应环保需求的绿党影响力不断上升,而社会民主党、社会党等传统左翼政党则发展乏力。目前,欧洲左翼政党的发展境遇大致可分为三类。

The first category consists of left-wing parties that have developed rapidly in their home countries or regions, successfully gaining governing status, or, while not in power, exerting significant influence on the political landscape. In the UK, Sinn Féin, a left-wing party advocating for Northern Ireland's secession from the UK, defeated the pro-British right-wing Democratic Unionist Party in the May 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election, becoming the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly. In France, the left-wing party La France Insoumise has developed rapidly. In the June 2022 National Assembly elections, the Nouvelle Union Populaire Écologique et Sociale (NUPES), an alliance of left-wing parties including La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, and the Greens, performed strongly, surging from 57 seats to 142 seats, becoming the second-largest bloc in the National Assembly and directly leading to a hung parliament. In Malta, the left-wing Malta Labour Party won the general election again in March 2022, with party leader and Prime Minister Robert Abela successfully re-elected. In Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party again won the presidential election, while the electoral coalition led by Ivica Dačić, chairman of the left-wing Socialist Party of Serbia—the governing partner of the Progressive Party—secured 31 seats in the parliamentary election. The Socialist Party is the successor to the League of Communists of Serbia. After this election, the Socialist Party again cooperated with the Progressive Party to form a new government, with Dačić smoothly becoming First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs.

第一类是左翼政党在本国或部分地区发展迅速,成功获得执政地位,或虽未获得执政地位但对政治格局有着重要影响。在英国,主张北爱尔兰脱离英国的左翼政党新芬党在2022年5月举行的北爱尔兰地区议会选举中战胜亲英的右翼政党民主统一党,成为北爱尔兰议会的最大政党。在法国,左翼政党“不屈法国”发展迅猛,在2022年6月举行的国民议会选举中,由“不屈法国”、社会党、共产党、绿党等左翼政党组成的“生态和社会人民新联盟”在选举中表现突出,席位从此前的57个飙升至142个,一跃成为国民议会第二大团体,并直接导致“悬浮议会”的产生。在马耳他,左翼政党马耳他工党在2022年3月举行的大选中再次获胜,工党领导人、总理罗伯特·阿贝拉成功连任。在塞尔维亚,亚历山大·武契奇领衔的塞尔维亚进步党再次赢得总统大选,而进步党的执政盟友、左翼政党塞尔维亚社会党主席伊维察·达契奇领导的选举联盟则在议会选举中获得31个席位。社会党的前身是塞尔维亚共产主义者联盟,此次选举后,社会党再次与进步党合作组建新政府,达契奇顺利成为第一副总理兼外交部长。

The second category consists of left-wing parties that, while holding governing positions, face severe challenges from right-wing forces, especially far-right forces, which are developing rapidly. In Germany, the Left Party (Die Linke), the successor to the former East German ruling party, the Socialist Unity Party of Germany, lost all its seats in the Saarland state parliament. The influence of the Greens has notably increased, with significant gains in seats in some state parliaments; in the Schleswig-Holstein state election, they surpassed the Social Democratic Party to become the second-largest party in the state parliament. In Portugal, the left-wing Socialist Party, led by António Costa, won 120 of the 230 seats in the January 2022 parliamentary election, successfully forming a majority government. However, the Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), a left-wing electoral alliance comprising the Portuguese Communist Party and the Portuguese Greens, suffered a heavy blow, with its seats dropping from 12 to 6. In Spain, Pedro Sánchez, candidate of the left-wing Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), won the 2019 general election and became Prime Minister, but the right-wing People's Party (PP) has shown a clear recovery, and the newly emerged far-right party VOX has jumped to become the country's third-largest party. In the February 2022 Castile and León regional election and the June 2022 Andalusia regional election, the PP defeated the PSOE, while VOX's influence continued to rise, making the prospects for left-wing parties unpromising. In Austria, Alexander Van der Bellen, candidate of the left-wing Austrian Green Party, was re-elected President, but the largest party in parliament is the right-wing Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), with the Chancellor also being ÖVP chairman Karl Nehammer. In Denmark, the left-wing Social Democratic Party, led by Mette Frederiksen, again became the largest party in the November 2022 parliamentary election, but the right-wing Liberal Alliance significantly increased its seats, and the newly formed right-wing Denmark Democrats also jumped to become the fifth-largest party in parliament, posing considerable challenges for left-wing parties.

第二类是左翼政党虽占据执政地位,但右翼势力尤其是极右翼势力发展势头迅猛,左翼执政地位受到严峻挑战。在德国,原东德执政党德国统一社会党的继承者德国左翼党失去了萨尔州议会的全部席位。而绿党的影响力则有明显提升,在部分州的议会席位大幅增长,并在石勒苏益格-荷尔斯泰因州的选举中战胜社会民主党成为州议会第二大党。在葡萄牙,安东尼奥·科斯塔领衔的左翼政党葡萄牙社会党在2022年1月举行的选举中赢得议会230个席位中的120个,成功组建多数政府。但是由葡萄牙共产党和葡萄牙绿党组成的左翼选举联盟统一民主联盟遭遇沉重打击,议席由原来的12个降至6个。在西班牙,左翼政党工人社会党候选人佩德罗·桑切斯在2019年举行的西班牙大选中获胜并成为首相,但右翼政党西班牙人民党复苏态势明显,新兴的极右翼政党VOX更是一跃成为全国第三大党。在2022年2月举行的西班牙卡斯蒂利亚-莱昂地区选举和6月举行的安达卢西亚地区选举中,人民党击败工人社会党获得胜利,VOX的影响力也在持续攀升,左翼政党发展前景不容乐观。在奥地利,左翼政党奥地利绿党候选人范德贝伦在选举中成功连任总统,但议会第一大党却是右翼政党奥地利人民党,政府总理也由人民党主席卡尔·内哈默担任。在丹麦,梅特·弗雷泽里克森领导的左翼政党社会民主党在2022年11月举行的议会选举中再次成为第一大党,但右翼政党自由联盟所占席位大幅增长,新成立的右翼政党丹麦民主党也一跃成为议会第五大党,左翼政党面临的挑战不小。

The third category is the continuous development of right-wing forces, especially far-right forces, while the left has lost its ruling position or is increasingly languishing. In Italy, the center-right coalition composed of the Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forza Italia won the election, and the far-right Brothers of Italy, led by Meloni, became the largest party in parliament with 26% of the vote. In Sweden, the right-wing coalition formed by the Sweden Democrats, the Christian Democrats, the Moderate Party, and the Liberals ended the left’s eight-year rule in the general election held in September 2022, with the support rate of the far-right Sweden Democrats rising significantly, replacing the Moderate Party as the second-largest party in parliament. In the Czech Republic, the left’s influence is very limited; in the by-election for one-third of the Senate seats held in September 2022, all 27 seats were won by right-wing parties, with left-wing parties gaining none. In Latvia, the previous largest party in parliament, the left-wing Social Democratic Party “Harmony,” lost all its seats in the election, dealing a heavy blow to the left, and right-wing forces generally dominate the political landscape. In Bulgaria, the right wing occupies the mainstream, and the influence of the far-right Revival Party is rising rapidly.

第三类是右翼势力特别是极右翼势力不断发展,左翼丧失执政地位或日益萎靡。在意大利,意大利兄弟党、联盟党和力量党组成的中右翼政党联盟在选举中胜出,梅洛尼领导的极右翼政党意大利兄弟党以26%的选票成为议会第一大党。在瑞典,瑞典民主党、基督教民主党、温和党和自由党组成的右翼联盟在2022年9月举行的大选中结束了左翼长达8年的执政,其中极右翼政党民主党的支持率大幅上升并取代温和党成为议会第二大党。在捷克,左翼影响力十分有限,在2022年9月举行的参议院三分之一议员的换届选举中,27个席位全部为右翼政党获得,左翼政党颗粒无收。在拉脱维亚,此前的议会第一大党、左翼政党“和谐”社会民主党在选举中丧失所有议席,左翼遭受重创,右翼势力总体上主导了政治格局。在保加利亚,右翼占据主流,极右翼政党复兴党的影响力快速上升。

Left-Wing Forces in Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East: Seeking Development Amid Crisis

亚洲、大洋洲和中东地区左翼:在危机中谋发展

In 2022, elections were held in many countries in Asia and Oceania, and the development trend of left-wing forces was generally stable. Although left-wing forces in Japan, South Korea, India, and other countries did not perform prominently in elections, they still have considerable influence in their respective countries. Left-wing forces in Oceania countries such as Australia and Papua New Guinea continued to develop and won elections. In Japan, the 26th House of Councillors election was held on July 10, 2022; the emerging left-wing party Reiwa Shinsengumi gained three additional seats, while the support rates of the traditional left-wing forces, the Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party, declined to varying degrees again. In South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, the candidate of the right-wing People Power Party, narrowly defeated Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the left-wing Democratic Party of Korea, in the presidential election held in March 2022.

2022年,亚洲、大洋洲地区多国举行选举,左翼力量发展态势总体稳定。日本、韩国、印度等国的左翼力量虽在选举中表现不彰,但在本国依然有着不小的影响力。澳大利亚、巴布亚新几内亚等大洋洲国家的左翼力量持续发展并在选举中获胜。在日本,第26届国会参议院选举于2022年7月10日举行,新兴左翼政党令和新选组新增3个议席,而代表传统左翼力量的日本共产党和社会民主党支持率再次出现不同程度的下降。在韩国,右翼政党国民力量党候选人尹锡悦在2022年3月举行的总统大选中以微弱优势击败左翼政党共同民主党候选人李在明。

In India, various political parties exist, with the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party led by Modi dominating; the overall development trend of left-wing forces in recent years has been poor, but they still have a certain influence. In July and August 2022, Bharatiya Janata Party candidates Droupadi Murmu and Jagdeep Dhankhar were elected President and Vice President respectively with absolute majorities. Meanwhile, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), after losing its ruling position in Tripura in 2018, lost one more seat in the by-election for the Tripura Legislative Assembly held in June 2022. However, the CPI(M) still has considerable influence; its led Left Democratic Front has achieved consecutive governance in Kerala, the “Grand Alliance” involving the CPI(M), the Communist Party of India, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) is in power in Bihar, and the center-left coalition United Progressive Alliance, in which the CPI(M) participates, is in power in Rajasthan. At the same time, the Indian left also has strong appeal in organizing protest activities. In March 2022, multiple trade unions affiliated with the CPI(M) and the center-left Indian National Congress organized a nationwide general strike to protest the Modi government’s policies. The CPI(M) called it “one of the largest general strikes in the history of the Indian working class,” and the Centre of Indian Trade Unions stated that about 250 million people participated in the strike. In Nepal, due to infighting among various factions of the Communist Party of Nepal and continuous interference from external forces such as the United States and India, the center-left Nepali Congress became the largest party in parliament in the election held in November 2022, while the seats won by the CPN (Unified Marxist–Leninist), the CPN (Maoist Centre), and the CPN (Unified Socialist) all declined significantly. Although the democratic left alliance composed of the Nepali Congress, the CPN (Maoist Centre), and the CPN (Unified Socialist) won the election, the power-sharing negotiations between the Nepali Congress and the CPN (Maoist Centre) broke down after the election. Under the condition of a hung parliament, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) announced the formation of a new ruling coalition with the former opposition party, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), and CPN (Maoist Centre) leader Prachanda became Prime Minister. In Malaysia, the center-left political coalition Pakatan Harapan won the most seats in the general election held in November 2022 but failed to secure a simple majority, leading to Malaysia’s first hung parliament. Ultimately, under the appointment of Malaysia’s Supreme Head of State Abdullah, Pakatan Harapan candidate Anwar Ibrahim became the new Prime Minister. In East Timor, José Ramos-Horta, candidate of the left-wing National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction, defeated Francisco Guterres Lu-Olo, candidate of the left-wing Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor, in the second round of the presidential election held in April 2022.

在印度,各类政党林立,其中莫迪领衔的右翼政党印度人民党占据主导地位,左翼力量近年来整体发展态势不佳,但依然具有一定影响力。2022年7月和8月,印度人民党候选人德劳帕迪·穆尔穆和贾格迪普·丹卡分别以绝对优势当选总统与副总统。而印度共产党(马克思主义)自2018年失去特里普拉邦的执政地位后,在2022年6月举行的特里普拉邦立法会补选中又失去了1个席位。不过目前印共(马)仍有不小的影响力,其领导的左翼民主阵线在喀拉拉邦获得连续执政,印共(马)、印共与印共(马列)参与的“大联盟”在比哈尔邦执政,印共(马)参与的中左翼政党联盟联合进步联盟在拉贾斯坦邦执政。同时,印度左翼在组织抗议活动方面也有着极强的号召力。2022年3月,隶属于印共(马)和中左翼政党印度国大党的多个工会组织了旨在抗议莫迪政府政策的全国大罢工,印共(马)称这是“印度工人阶级历史上最大规模的总罢工之一”,印度工会中心表示约有2.5亿民众参加了罢工。在尼泊尔,由于尼共各派系间的内斗以及美国、印度等外部势力的持续干涉,中左翼政党尼泊尔大会党在2022年11月举行的选举中成为议会最大政党,尼共(联合马列)、尼共(毛主义中心)、尼共(联合社会主义者)所获席位都出现了大幅下滑。由尼泊尔大会党、尼共(毛主义中心)、尼共(联合社会主义者)组成的民主左翼联盟虽然在选举中获胜,但是选举后尼泊尔大会党与尼共(毛主义中心)在分权谈判中破裂,在出现“悬浮议会”的情况下,尼泊尔共产党(毛主义中心)宣布与原反对党尼泊尔共产党(联合马列)结成新的执政联盟,尼共(毛主义中心)领导人普拉昌达就任总理。在马来西亚,中左翼政治联盟希望联盟在2022年11月举行的大选中获得最多席位,但未能赢得简单多数,马来西亚首次陷入“悬浮议会”。最终,在马来西亚最高元首阿卜杜拉的任命下,希望联盟候选人安瓦尔成为新任总理。在东帝汶,左翼政党东帝汶重建全国大会党候选人何塞·拉莫斯·奥尔塔在2022年4月举行的第二轮总统选举中战胜左翼政党东帝汶独立革命阵线候选人弗朗西斯科·古特雷斯·卢奥洛。

In Australia, Anthony Albanese, candidate of the left-wing Australian Labor Party, won the federal parliamentary election held in May 2022 and became Prime Minister. In this election, the influence of the left-wing Australian Greens continued to rise; it currently has 12 senators and 4 members of the House of Representatives, becoming a significant left-wing force within Australia. In Papua New Guinea, the National Parliament election was held in July 2022; the seats held by the left-wing Pangu Party increased sharply from 9 to 39, making it the largest party in parliament. In this election, the left-wing Social Democratic Party, the United Labour Party, and the Greens performed well, with their respective seat counts all increasing.

在澳大利亚,左翼政党澳大利亚工党候选人安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯在2022年5月举行的联邦议会选举中胜选并就任总理。在此次选举中,左翼政党澳大利亚绿党影响力继续攀升,目前共拥有12名参议员和4名众议员,已成为澳大利亚国内举足轻重的左翼力量。在巴布亚新几内亚,国民议会选举于2022年7月举行,左翼政党盘古党所占席位由之前的9个大幅上升至39个,一跃成为议会第一大党。在此次选举中,左翼政党社会民主党、联合工党与绿党表现良好,所占席位皆有所增长。

In 2022, due to intensified contradictions among domestic political factions and behind-the-scenes meddling by the United States, the Middle East remained turbulent and war-torn, with left-wing forces striving to move forward. In Lebanon, sectarian parties have far greater influence than left-wing parties. A political crisis erupted in Lebanon in 2019, followed by continuous political instability and frequent changes of prime ministers. The first parliamentary election was not held until May 2022, and neither the Hezbollah nor the Lebanese Forces camp secured a majority, plunging Lebanon, with its persistently sluggish economy, into a political stalemate. However, it is worth noting that the Lebanese Communist Party historically won one seat in this election, and the left-wing Progressive Socialist Party also won eight seats. In Israel, the right-wing Likud party led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintained its status as the largest party in parliament in the election held in November 2022, and Netanyahu again became Prime Minister. In this election, far-right parties rose strongly; the Religious Zionist Party’s seat count increased significantly, making it the third-largest party in parliament, while left-wing forces represented by Hadash–Ta’al, the Israeli Labor Party, and Meretz suffered heavy losses.

2022年,由于国内政治派别间的矛盾激化和美国的背后搅局,中东地区依然动荡不安、战乱不断,左翼力量奋力前行。在黎巴嫩,教派性政党影响力远大于左翼政党,2019年黎巴嫩爆发政治危机,此后政局持续动荡,总理更迭频繁,直到2022年5月才举行首次议会选举,而真主党和力量党两大阵营都未能占据半数,经济持续低迷的黎巴嫩陷入政治僵局。但值得一提的是,黎巴嫩共产党在此次选举中历史性地获得1个席位,左翼政党社会进步党也获得8个席位。在以色列,前任总理内塔尼亚胡领衔的右翼政党利库德集团在2022年11月举行的议会选举中继续保持议会第一大党地位,内塔尼亚胡再次担任政府总理。在此次选举中,极右翼政党强势崛起,宗教犹太复国主义党所获席位大幅上升,一跃成为议会第三大党,而以哈达什-塔尔党、以色列工党和梅雷茨党为代表的左翼力量则损失惨重。

Left-Wing Forces in Latin America: Ushering in a New “Pink Tide”

拉美左翼:迎来新“粉红浪潮”

In recent years, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and a series of other events have further exacerbated the systemic economic and social crisis in Latin America, accelerating the pendulum effect in Latin American politics. In 2022, left-wing political movements continued to sweep across Latin America with an unstoppable momentum. In Colombia, left-wing forces achieved significant development. In the parliamentary elections held in March 2022, the left-wing forces represented by the Historic Pact for Colombia coalition, the Liberal Party, and the Hope Center–Green Alliance all saw varying degrees of increase in their seats. Subsequently, Gustavo Petro, candidate of the left-wing electoral coalition Historic Pact for Colombia, won the second round of the presidential election in June, becoming Colombia’s first left-wing president in the post-war period. In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, candidate of the left-wing Workers’ Party, defeated far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro in the second round of the presidential election on October 30, 2022, allowing the left to retake power in Latin America’s largest country. In Barbados, the left-wing Barbados Labour Party, led by Mia Mottley, won all seats in the House of Assembly in the parliamentary elections held in January 2022, and Mottley secured a second term as prime minister with an overwhelming majority. In Dominica, Roosevelt Skerrit, leader of the left-wing Dominica Labour Party, won the general election held in December 2022 and was again sworn in as prime minister. At this point, left-wing forces hold power in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Bolivia, Venezuela, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, and other countries. Over 80% of Latin America’s population lives in countries governed by the left, and the left-wing political movement in Latin America has reached a historic high tide. Although this new left-wing wave has significantly altered the regional balance of political forces, left-wing parties still face severe governance challenges. In December 2022, Peruvian left-wing president Pedro Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress but was impeached and removed from office by Congress, then arrested by the military and police. Moreover, the left-wing coalition currently holds only one-third of the seats in Congress, with the right-wing opposition led by Keiko Fujimori still dominating Congress, leaving left-wing forces facing many constraints. Looking ahead to the development prospects of the new “Pink Tide,” although Latin America possesses the objective conditions for the growth and strengthening of the left, chronic economic problems are deeply entrenched and difficult to reverse. Left-wing parties themselves still face issues such as corruption in their own construction. The right wing’s encirclement and suppression are intense, and interference from external forces such as the United States continues unabated, making it difficult to eliminate the political pendulum effect in the short term.

近年来,新冠疫情等一系列事件的暴发进一步加剧了拉美经济社会的系统性危机,拉美政坛的钟摆效应加快。2022年,左翼政治运动继续以不可阻挡之势席卷拉美大地。在哥伦比亚,左翼力量得到显著发展,在2022年3月举行的议会选举中,以哥伦比亚历史公约联盟、自由党、希望中心—绿色联盟为代表的左翼力量所占席位皆有不同程度的增加。此后,左翼选举联盟哥伦比亚历史公约联盟候选人古斯塔沃·佩特罗在6月举行的第二轮总统大选中获胜,成为哥伦比亚战后首位左翼总统。在巴西,左翼政党劳工党候选人卢拉在2022年10月30日举行的第二轮总统选举中击败极右翼前总统博索纳罗,左翼重新执掌拉美第一大国巴西。在巴巴多斯,米娅·莫特利领导的左翼政党巴巴多斯工党在2022年1月举行的议会选举中获得众议院全部席位,莫特利以压倒性优势迎来第二个总理任期。在多米尼克,左翼政党多米尼克工党领袖罗斯福·斯凯里特在2022年12月举行的大选中获胜并再次就任总理。至此,巴西、阿根廷、智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥、玻利维亚、委内瑞拉、古巴、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜等国皆由左翼力量执掌政权,拉美超过80%的人口生活在左翼执政的国家,拉美左翼政治运动迎来了历史性高潮。虽然新一轮左翼浪潮极大地改变了地区政治力量对比,但是左翼政党仍面临着较为严峻的执政考验。2022年12月,秘鲁左翼总统佩德罗·卡斯蒂略试图解散国会却遭国会弹劾下台并被军警逮捕,且目前左翼联盟在国会中仅占有三分之一的席位,由藤森庆子领衔的右翼反对力量仍是国会的主导者,左翼力量面临许多掣肘。展望新一轮“粉红浪潮”的发展前景,拉美虽拥有左翼发展壮大的客观条件,但经济痼疾积重难返,左翼政党自身建设还存在贪腐等问题,右翼的围追堵截十分激烈,美国等外部势力的干预持续不断,政治钟摆效应难以在短期内消除。

African Left: Steadily Expanding Influence

非洲左翼:稳步扩展影响力

The left-wing movement in Africa has a long history and has achieved notable development accomplishments in recent years. In 2022, multiple African countries held elections. Although left-wing forces encountered certain challenges, they generally maintained a positive momentum of steady development. In the Republic of the Congo, left-wing forces hold a dominant position. The left-wing Congolese Party of Labour, led by Denis Sassou-Nguesso, won 112 seats in the parliamentary elections held in July 2022, while the Pan-African Union for Social Democracy, also a left-wing party, secured 7 seats as the second-largest party in parliament. In Senegal, the left-wing Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics, and Fraternity, founded in 2014, has developed rapidly in recent years. In the 2017 parliamentary elections, it won only 1 seat, but in the parliamentary elections held in July 2022, it historically won 56 seats, leaping to become the second-largest party in parliament. In Angola, João Lourenço, candidate of the left-wing People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola, successfully won re-election as president. The party also won 124 seats in the 2022 parliamentary elections, successfully maintaining its position as the largest party in parliament. Notably, the right-wing National Union for the Total Independence of Angola has continued its upward trend since 2012, with its seats rapidly increasing from 51 in 2017 to 90, firmly holding the position of the second-largest party in parliament and posing an increasingly significant threat to the left. In Kenya, Raila Odinga, candidate of the left-wing Orange Democratic Movement, narrowly lost the presidential election held in August 2022 to William Ruto, candidate of the right-wing United Democratic Alliance. However, the Azimio la Umoja coalition led by Odinga and the Kenya Kwanza coalition led by Ruto have essentially formed a political landscape of parity in the parliamentary elections. Both coalitions hold 33 seats in the Senate, while in the National Assembly, the two coalitions hold 158 and 179 seats, respectively. In Lesotho, the Revolution for Prosperity party, established in March 2022, won 56 seats in the parliamentary elections held in October, leaping to become the largest party in parliament. The left-wing Democratic Congress party won 29 seats, maintaining its position as the second-largest party in parliament. The emerging left-wing Basotho Action Party and the Socialist Revolutionaries party won 6 seats and 2 seats, respectively, ranking fourth and eighth in parliament in terms of seats.

非洲左翼运动的历史十分悠久,近年来也取得了可圈可点的发展成就。2022年,非洲多国举行选举,左翼力量虽遇到一定挑战,但总体上保持了稳步发展的良好态势。在刚果(布),左翼力量占据统治地位,德尼·萨苏-恩格索领导的左翼政党刚果劳动党在2022年7月举行的议会选举中获得112个席位,而议会第二大党、左翼政党泛非社会民主联盟获得7个席位。在塞内加尔,2014年成立的左翼政党塞内加尔争取工作、道德、博爱爱国者党近年来发展势头迅猛,2017年该党在议会选举中仅斩获1个席位,而在2022年7月举行的议会选举中历史性地获得56个席位,一跃成为议会第二大党。在安哥拉,左翼政党安哥拉人民解放运动候选人若昂·洛伦索成功连任总统,该党同时也在2022年议会选举中获得124个席位,成功保持议会第一大党地位。值得注意的是,右翼政党争取安哥拉彻底独立全国联盟延续了自2012年以来的上升势头,议席从2017年的51个快速增长至90个,稳居议会第二大党地位,对左翼造成的威胁日益扩大。在肯尼亚,左翼政党橙色民主运动候选人拉伊拉·奥廷加在2022年8月举行的总统大选中以微弱劣势败给右翼政党联合民主联盟党候选人威廉·鲁托。不过,奥廷加领衔的阿齐米奥拉团结联盟与鲁托领导的肯尼亚宽扎联盟在议会选举中基本形成了势均力敌的政治格局,两大联盟在参议院均占有33个席位,在众议院两大联盟所占席位分别是158个和179个。在莱索托,2022年3月刚建立的繁荣革命党在10月举行的议会选举中夺得56个席位,跃居议会第一大党。左翼政党民主大会党获得29个席位,维持了议会第二大党地位。新兴左翼政党巴索托行动党和社会主义革命党分别获得6个席位和2个席位,议席数量分别位列议会第四和第八。

Currently, left-wing forces in some African countries are also facing a crisis of decline. In the Gambia, the newly formed National People’s Party, led by incumbent President Adama Barrow, won the parliamentary elections held in April 2022, securing 18 seats. Meanwhile, the left-wing United Democratic Party and the People’s Democratic Organisation for Independence and Socialism suffered setbacks, winning 15 seats and 2 seats, respectively. Compared to the previous election, the seats won by these two parties decreased by 16 and 2, respectively. In São Tomé and Príncipe, the Democratic Independent Action Party, considered a centrist party, won 30 seats in the parliamentary elections held in September 2022, comfortably securing a majority. In contrast, the seats won by the left-wing Movement for the Liberation of São Tomé and Príncipe/Social Democratic Party decreased from 23 in the previous election to 18.

目前,也有部分非洲国家的左翼力量面临着衰退危机。在冈比亚,现任总统阿达玛·巴罗领导新成立的国家人民党在2022年4月举行的议会选举中获胜,赢得了18个席位,而左翼政党冈比亚联合民主党和争取独立与社会主义人民民主组织在选举中遭遇挫折,分别获得15个席位和2个席位,两党所获席位相较于上次选举分别减少了16个和2个。在圣多美和普林西比,被认为是中间派政党的民主独立行动党在2022年9月举行的议会选举中获得30个席位,顺利赢得多数席位,而左翼政党解放运动-社会民主党所获席位由此前的23个下降为18个。

Conclusion

结语

Currently, the left-right political game around the world is becoming increasingly complex, and left-wing forces face many new opportunities and challenges. From the perspective of opportunities, the political and economic crises spreading across the United States and the West provide a social foundation for the revival of left-wing forces. In recent years, the intertwined and resonating complex factors of the prolonged pandemic, great-power competition, and the Ukraine crisis have led to a multitude of problems such as global economic recession, extreme polarization of wealth and poverty, and a sharp rise in the cost of living, triggering strong public discontent. In 2022, labor movements and protest activities in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, India, and other countries saw a huge increase in both density and scale, and public support for trade unions also rose significantly. Gallup’s 2022 annual survey shows that approval of labor unions in the United States hit a record 71%, the highest level since 1965. Social protest movements triggered by the political and economic crisis are important forms of exposing the inherent contradictions of capitalism, articulating left-wing propositions, and promoting organizational construction. Looking ahead, the prospects for global economic recovery are uncertain, and social divisions are likely difficult to heal in the short term. Left-wing forces face new opportunities for development.

当前,世界各地的左右政治博弈日趋复杂,左翼力量面临着许多新的机遇和挑战。从机遇层面看,美西方蔓延的政治经济危机为左翼力量的复兴提供了社会基础。近年来,疫情延宕、大国博弈、乌克兰危机等复杂因素交织共振,导致全球经济衰退、贫富差距极端分化、生活成本骤增等问题丛生,引发民众强烈不满。2022年,美国、英国、法国、印度等多个国家的劳工运动和抗议活动在密度与规模上都有了巨大增长,民众对工会的支持率也有了显著提升。盖洛普2022年年度调查显示,美国工会支持率创下了71%的历史记录,达到1965年以来的最高水平。政治经济危机引发的社会抗议运动是揭露资本主义内在矛盾、表达左翼主张、推动组织建设的重要形式。展望未来,全球经济复苏前景难料,社会撕裂恐难在短期内弥合,左翼力量面临新的发展契机。

From the perspective of challenges, although exchanges among global left-wing forces are increasingly close, internal disagreements have become the greatest obstacle to a broad alliance of foreign left-wing forces. In 2022, foreign left-wing forces held events such as the World Social Forum, the 7th "Common Visions of the Left" seminar, the International Conference on Internationalism and Anti-Imperialism, and the 6th European Left Forum, conducting in-depth exchanges and discussions on major theoretical and practical issues. They achieved new development in the reflection on, critique of, and transformation of capitalism, creating favorable conditions for further deepening theoretical research, strengthening organizational capacity, and enhancing comprehensive influence. However, global left-wing forces have generated certain disagreements over issues such as the nature of the Ukraine crisis. Left-wing forces in Southern countries represented by India, Vietnam, South Africa, and Bolivia hold a relatively positive assessment of Russia, while left-wing forces in Northern countries are more critical of Russia. In fact, various disagreements and debates within the left-wing camp have long existed and are widespread. Facing new opportunities and challenges for development brought by turbulent situations, left-wing forces in various countries should distinguish between the mainstream and the tributary, set aside disputes, strengthen mutual exchange and learning in theory and action strategies, and move forward on the basis of building consensus. In particular, in the face of increasingly intense clashes of political thought, left-wing forces need to consider how to promote left-wing unity through new forms of organization and strategic thinking, replacing "competition and confrontation" with "unity and coexistence," and avoiding "drawing boundaries that limit themselves." [1]1 "Drawing boundaries that limit themselves" (画地自限) is a Chinese four-character idiom meaning to restrict oneself by setting artificial limits, akin to "self-imposed limitations."

从挑战层面看,尽管全球左翼间的交流日益密切,但内部分歧成为外国左翼力量大联合的最大障碍。2022年,外国左翼力量通过举办世界社会论坛、第7届“左翼的共同愿景”研讨会、国际主义和反帝国主义国际会议、第6届欧洲左翼论坛等,就一些重大理论和现实问题进行深入交流研讨,在对资本主义的反思、批判与变革中实现了新的发展,为继续深化理论研究、强化组织力量、提升综合影响创造了有利条件。但全球左翼围绕乌克兰危机的性质等问题产生了一定分歧,以印度、越南、南非、玻利维亚为代表的南方国家的左翼力量对俄罗斯抱有相对积极的评价,而北方国家的左翼力量则更多是对俄罗斯的批评。事实上,左翼阵营内部的各种分歧与争论由来已久且普遍存在。面对动荡局势带来的发展新机遇、新挑战,各国左翼应分清主流与支流,搁置争议,加强理论和行动策略的交流互鉴,并在凝聚共识的基础上向前发展。特别是面对政治思潮日趋激烈的交锋,左翼力量需要思考的是如何以新的组织形式和战略思维方式推动左翼联合,以“团结共生”代替“竞争对抗”,避免“画地自限”。

Online editors: Zhong Yao, Zheng Yifan

网络编辑:钟尧、郑宜帆

Notes

  1. "Drawing boundaries that limit themselves" (画地自限) is a Chinese four-character idiom meaning to restrict oneself by setting artificial limits, akin to "self-imposed limitations." ↩