The Predicament and New Changes of the Contemporary Western Capitalist System

Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, Xi Jinping,

党的十八大以来，习近平从把握人类历史发展规律、推动人类社会发展进步的高度，提出了“世界百年未有之大变局”的重大论断。在“世界百年未有之大变局”之下，当今西方资本主义有何新变化，正面临着怎样的制度性困境，将会对全球产生怎样的影响，这些都是我们当下需要面对和思考的问题。本文从西方资本主义政治经济危机叠加、阶级结构新变化、乌克兰危机对西方社会的影响等多维度多视角，深入剖析当今资本主义的新变化新特征，探究当代资本主义的制度困境和理论困境，并对21世纪资本主义向何处去以及“两制”历史较量等问题作出理论探讨。

I. The Four Major Predicaments Facing the Contemporary Capitalist System

一、 当今资本主义制度面临四大困境

"Changes unseen in a century" are now shaking the political foundations and economic base of contemporary capitalism. The "Anglo-Saxon" model and the "Rhineland" model, of which Western countries are so proud, have both encountered severe development bottlenecks. The emergence of this situation is not simply due to the cyclical economic crises of capitalism; more importantly, it reveals deep-seated problems in the contemporary capitalist institutional model established after the Second World War.

“百年未有之大变局”正冲击当今资本主义的政治根基与经济基础，西方国家引以为傲的“盎格鲁—撒克逊”模式和“莱茵”模式，都遭遇严重发展瓶颈。这种状况的出现，不单纯是资本主义周期性经济危机使然，更主要的是第二次世界大战后确立的当代资本主义制度模式显现深层次问题。

(A) Economic System: Real Economy Imbalance and Failure of State Intervention

（一）经济制度：实体经济失调与国家干预失效

After the Second World War, the technological revolution and traditional manufacturing drove the rapid development of Western capitalism, giving rise to the Anglo-American "Anglo-Saxon" model, characterized by laissez-faire capitalism, and the German "Rhineland" model, characterized by a social market economy. Their common feature was an emphasis on the secondary sector, especially manufacturing. From the 1960s to the 1980s, the United States, Germany, and Japan successively became the world's largest trade surplus countries and important manufacturing centers. However, the third wave of the technological revolution unleashed by globalization, combined with the inherently greedy expansion of Western transnational capital, led to the decline of traditional Western manufacturing in the 1990s. The United States, in particular, degenerated from a global manufacturing hegemon into a financial monopoly empire. In 2020, the shares of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in the U.S. were 0.84%, 17.65%, and 81.51% respectively, with manufacturing accounting for only 10.84% of GDP. In the same year, the shares of manufacturing in the GDP of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy were 8.39%, 9.29%, 19.73%, and 14.87% respectively.

第二次世界大战后科技革命和传统制造业推动西方资本主义迅猛发展，出现了以自由放任资本主义为特征的英美“盎格鲁—撒克逊”模式，还有以社会市场经济为特征的德国“莱茵”模式，其共同点是重视第二产业特别是制造业的发展。20世纪60年代至80年代，美国、德国和日本相继成为全球第一大贸易顺差国和重要的制造业中心。但全球化掀起的第三次科技革命浪潮和西方跨国资本贪婪扩张的本性，导致20世纪90年代西方传统制造业走向衰落，美国更是从全球制造业霸主蜕变为金融垄断帝国。2020年美国第一、二、三产业比重为0.84∶17.65∶81.51，其中制造业仅占GDP的10.84%。同年英法德意四国制造业占GDP比重分别为8.39%、9.29%、19.73%和14.87%。

In view of the decline of the Western real economy and the burst of the financial bubble, Western governments have attempted to increase the intensity of state intervention, seeking to revitalize their domestic manufacturing through "reindustrialization." Starting with the Obama administration, the United States has consistently emphasized bringing manufacturing back to its homeland, changing the industrial pattern of R&D in the U.S. and production abroad. The Trump administration went further, introducing a series of preferential policies to subsidize R&D by American enterprises and encourage their return. The European Union has also paid attention to the issue of "reindustrialization" among European countries, launching a "reindustrialization strategy" in the hope of expanding the proportion of the real economy in Europe. However, contrary to expectations, the U.S. government's coercive intervention and political manipulation of the global industrial and supply chain systems have severely disrupted and undermined the effective global division of labor in these chains. The renowned American economist Milton Friedman pointed out incisively: "An ever-growing federal government will sooner or later destroy the prosperity brought by the free market."

鉴于西方实体经济衰退和金融泡沫破灭，西方政府试图加大国家干预力度，通过“再工业化”来振兴本国制造业。从奥巴马政府开始，美国就一直强调要让制造业回归本土，改变在美研发、在外制造的产业格局。特朗普政府更是出台一系列资助美国企业研发、鼓励美国企业回流的优惠政策。欧盟同样重视欧洲国家“再工业化”问题，出台“再工业化战略”，希望扩大欧洲实体经济比重。但事与愿违，美国政府对全球产业链供应链体系进行的强制干预和政治操控，严重干扰并破坏了全球行之有效的产业链分工。美国著名经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）一针见血地指出：“一个日渐强大的联邦政府，迟早会毁掉自由市场带来的繁荣。”

The Trump administration launched a trade war with China to contain it, but achieved the opposite effect. The U.S. government imposed sanctions bills against China and a list of punitive tariffs amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, yet it still failed to effectively stem the massive U.S. trade deficit with China. In 2018, China's trade surplus with the U.S. was $323.3 billion, which grew to $396.5 billion by 2021, illustrating the high degree of U.S. economic dependence on China. Therefore, the U.S. government's idea of completely decoupling the U.S. and Chinese economies is unrealistic. The "reindustrialization" policies of Western countries are extremely difficult to achieve. A primary reason is that supporting the expansion of domestic monopoly industries and obtaining high monopoly profits has become a consensus among Western governments, and is also the frenzied goal pursued by capitalists and the military-industrial complex. The disorderly expansion of capital determines that Western manufacturing will inevitably shift to developing countries, while factors such as low wages and low efficiency in domestic mid- to low-end manufacturing, as well as excessive rights protection by trade unions, often become shackles hindering the revitalization of domestic manufacturing. The contraction of Western manufacturing will not only impact the domestic service sector but also weaken the international competitiveness of Western countries.

特朗普政府为遏制中国而发动中美贸易战，却取得了适得其反的效果。美国政府出台了对华制裁法案以及高达数千亿美元的惩罚性关税清单，但仍然未能有效阻止美对华贸易巨额逆差。2018年中国对美贸易顺差为3233亿美元，2021年增长到3965亿美元，美国经济对华依赖度之高可见一斑。因而美国政府让中美经济完全脱钩的想法不切实际。西方国家“再工业化”政策实现的难度非常大，一个主要原因就是支持本国垄断行业扩张、获取高额垄断利润已成为西方各国政府的共识，也是资本家和军工利益复合体疯狂追求的目标。资本的无序扩张决定了西方制造业必然会向发展中国家转移，而本土中低端制造业工资待遇和工作效率不高，以及工会过度维权等因素，往往成为振兴本国制造业的桎梏。西方制造业的萎缩既会对本国服务业造成冲击，也会削弱西方国家的国际竞争力。

(B) Political System: Decline of the Traditional Establishment and Dysfunction of Democratic Politics

（二）政治制度：传统建制派失宠与民主政治失灵

The alternation of two parties in power or coalition governance has been a major feature of the political systems of large Western countries since the Second World War. The traditional establishment parties of the West have long represented mainstream Western politics and public opinion, both in governing the country and in foreign relations. However, in recent years, under the deepening crisis of capitalism and the impact of the wave of Western populism, the party political system that the West prides itself on has encountered major problems.

两党轮流坐庄或联合执政，是第二次世界大战后西方大国政治制度一大特点。西方传统建制派政党无论在治国理政方面还是对外交往方面，都长期代表西方主流政治和民意。然而，近年来在资本主义危机深化和西方民粹主义大潮冲击下，西方引以为傲的政党政治制度出现大问题。

First, the foundations of power for the traditional European establishment have been severely shaken. Mainstream parties in major countries have shrunk, with their vote shares and political influence generally declining. In the 2017 and 2022 French presidential elections, the Republicans and the Socialist Party both suffered heavy setbacks. Particularly in the 2022 election, the candidates of the Republicans and the Socialist Party received only 4.78% and 1.74% of the vote respectively, the lowest records since the founding of these two parties. Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, candidates from non-traditional establishment parties, both entered the "final round" twice, with Macron, representing centrist interests, ultimately winning. In the September 2021 German federal election, the combined vote share of the Social Democratic Party and the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union was only 49.8%, setting the lowest record for the two major establishment parties since the Second World War.

一是欧洲传统建制派执政根基严重松动，大国主流政党萎缩，得票率和政治影响力普降。2017年和2022年两次法国总统选举，共和党和社会党均遭重挫，特别是2022年大选，共和党和社会党候选人仅获得4.78%和1.74%的选票，创下两党成立以来的最低纪录。埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）和玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）两位非传统建制派政党候选人两度进入“决赛”，最终代表中间派利益的马克龙胜出。2021年9月德国联邦议院选举，社民党和基督教联盟党得票率合计只有49.8%，创下第二次世界大战后两大建制派政党得票率的最低纪录。

Second, the decline of major European parties, the proliferation of small parties, and the rise of populist parties are changing the traditional structure of party political power. Faced with the trend of anti-globalization and the predicament of the capitalist system, traditional European establishment parties find it difficult to offer effective prescriptions for governing the country and are retreating from the center of power. In stark contrast to the decline of traditional establishment parties, European populist parties are moving from the margins to the center of political power, giving rise to a new pattern of multi-party coalition governments in Europe. In December 2021, Germany formed a new three-party coalition government consisting of the Social Democratic Party, the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party, with the Greens having a left-wing populist tinge. In the September 2022 Italian parliamentary election, a center-right coalition composed of the Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forza Italia won, and Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the far-right populist Brothers of Italy party, has assumed the office of Prime Minister of the new Italian government.

二是欧洲大党式微、小党林立以及民粹主义政党崛起，正改变传统的政党政治权力结构。面对逆全球化思潮和资本主义制度困境，欧洲传统建制派政党难以开出治国理政良方，正从权力舞台中心退却。与传统建制派政党的衰退形成鲜明对比的是，欧洲民粹主义政党正从边缘走向政治权力中心，催生出欧洲多党联合组阁的新格局。2021年12月德国组成社民党、绿党和自民党三党联合新政府，其中绿党具有左翼民粹主义色彩。2022年9月意大利议会选举中，由意大利兄弟党、联盟党和力量党组成的中右翼联盟获胜，极右翼民粹主义政党兄弟党党魁乔吉亚·梅洛尼（Giorgia Meloni）已出任新一届意大利政府总理。

Third, political polarization is very prominent, and some EU countries are even attempting to use populism to counter European integration. Along with the increasing sharpening of social contradictions, political polarization has emerged in various Western countries. In the UK, the "conflict between the government and parliament" between the Conservative government and Parliament over the Brexit judicial process once became intense. In the US, the partisan struggle and mutual mudslinging between the Republican and Democratic parties have led to increasing social division. In France, in the first round of the 2022 presidential election, far-left and far-right parties together received 56.78% of the vote, highlighting the extreme sentiments of the populace. Central and Eastern European countries represented by Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic often sing a different tune from the EU on issues such as the refugee problem, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the energy crisis, and the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy, demonstrating the interests and demands of right-wing populism.

三是政治极化现象十分突出，一些欧盟国家还试图用民粹主义来抗衡欧洲一体化。伴随着社会矛盾的日益尖锐化，在西方各国都出现了政治极化的现象。在英国，围绕脱欧司法程序，保守党政府同议会的“府院之争”一度白热化。在美国，共和党和民主党党派利益缠斗、互相抹黑，导致社会日益分裂。在法国，2022年总统首轮选举中，极左翼和极右翼政党共获得56.78%的选票，凸显了民众的极端情绪。以匈牙利、波兰和捷克为代表的中东欧国家，在难民问题、俄乌冲突、能源危机以及欧盟共同外交与安全政策上，经常同欧盟唱反调，彰显右翼民粹主义的利益诉求。

Fourth, the proliferation of Western populist thought has led to the malfunction of Western democratic politics. On the one hand, the enthusiasm of voters in Western countries for political participation has declined, with voter turnout repeatedly hitting new lows. In 2022, the first-round voter turnout for the French presidential election and the National Assembly election was 65% and 47.51% respectively, both hitting 20-year lows. The Italian general election turnout was 63.8%, also a record low in Italian electoral history. Low voter turnout severely undermines the legitimacy of European democratic systems and has led to the development and proliferation of populist political parties. On the other hand, institutional confrontation within Western political systems and social retaliation mutually constrain each other. Under these conditions, scenario plays of political polarization, partisan confrontation, and social retaliation are constantly staged; the social riot at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, is the best example.[2]2 The January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters of then-President Donald Trump seeking to overturn the 2020 presidential election results.

四是西方民粹主义思潮泛滥，导致西方民主政治失灵。一方面，西方国家选民参政热情度下降，投票率不断创下新低。2022年法国总统选举和国民议会选举首轮投票率分别为65%和47.51%，均创下20年以来的最低值。意大利大选投票率为63.8%，也创下意大利选举历史新低。低投票率严重损害了欧洲民主制度的合法性，造成了民粹主义政党的发展和泛滥。另一方面，西方政体制度性对抗与社会性报复相互掣肘。在这种状况下，政治极化、党派对抗和社会报复的情景剧不断上演，2021年1月美国国会山发生的社会暴乱就是最好的例证。

(3) Social System: Welfare System Dysfunction and Imbalance in Wealth and Income

（三）社会制度：福利体系失能与贫富收入失衡

In the mid-to-late 19th century, the European Industrial Revolution created two opposing groups, the proletariat and the bourgeoisie. Marx pointed out incisively in *Capital*: “Capital comes into the world dripping from head to foot, from every pore, with blood and dirt.” The greed of capital and the brutality of primitive accumulation aroused the anger and resistance of the proletariat. To ease the class contradictions in society, countries such as Sweden in Northern Europe, during the more than one hundred years of Social Democratic Party governance, persistently pursued reformist social welfare policies, emphasized improving the treatment of the working class and citizens, and established a European social welfare system from cradle to grave.

19世纪中后期，欧洲工业革命创造了无产阶级和资产阶级两大对立群体，马克思在《资本论》中一针见血地指出：“资本来到世间，从头到脚，每个毛孔都滴着血和肮脏的东西。”资本的贪婪和原始积累的残暴，激起了无产阶级的愤怒和反抗。为缓和社会的阶级矛盾，瑞典等北欧国家在社民党执政的一百多年间，坚持推行改良主义社会福利政策，重视改善工人阶级和国民待遇，创建了一套从摇篮到坟墓的欧洲社会福利体制。

The original intention of establishing the social welfare system in Europe was to ease social class contradictions and serve the consolidation of bourgeois rule. This system played a significant role in maintaining social stability and easing class contradictions for a considerable period after World War II. However, this “from cradle to grave” social welfare system has in recent years been losing its original social function and facing predicaments.

欧洲建立社会福利体制的初衷是缓和社会阶级矛盾，为巩固资产阶级统治服务。这套体制在第二次世界大战后相当长一段时期曾对维持社会稳定、缓和阶级矛盾发挥了显著作用。但这种“从摇篮到坟墓”的社会福利体制，近年来正失去原有的社会功能并面临困境。

Predicament One: High welfare has limited the financial investment of European countries and enterprises in research and development (R&D) and innovation, leading to the contraction or relocation of their domestic manufacturing industries. The total population of the EU accounts for only 5.9% of the global population, but its social welfare expenditure accounts for over 50% of the global total. This high-welfare policy restricts the R&D investment of European countries and enterprises, reducing the international competitiveness of their domestic manufacturing. The *2021 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard* report shows that, comparing the three major players—China, the U.S., and Europe—R&D investment by Chinese and American enterprises increased by 18.1% and 9.1% respectively, while that of European enterprises decreased by 2.2%.

困境之一：高福利限制了欧洲国家和企业对研发创新的资金投入力度，导致本国制造业萎缩或转移。欧盟总人口仅占全球人口的5.9%，但其社会福利开支却占到全球的50%以上。这种高福利政策限制了欧洲国家和企业的研发投入，降低了本国制造业的国际竞争力。《2021年欧盟产业研发投入记分牌》报告显示，中美欧三强相比，中美企业研发投入分别增长18.1%和9.1%，而欧洲企业则下降了2.2%。

Predicament Two: The European social welfare system and subsidy policies have affected the enterprising spirit and work motivation of the populace. The persistently high unemployment rate in Europe is, to a certain extent, related to its superior social security system. Some unemployed individuals could work but choose to stay at home and enjoy welfare benefits. In France, unemployed individuals with children can receive 70% of their pre-unemployment net salary, with benefits lasting up to three years. The middle class is the main employment and tax-paying body in Europe, but the high unemployment relief policy severely dampens their work enthusiasm. Furthermore, the high tax policy, which is the pillar of the welfare system, triggers panic and dissatisfaction among the wealthy, leading many to emigrate and transfer assets abroad.

困境之二：欧洲社会福利制度和补贴政策影响了民众的进取心和劳动积极性。欧洲失业率的居高不下，与其优越的社会保障制度有一定的关联。部分失业者本可以去工作，但却待在家中享受福利补贴。法国有孩子的失业者可获得失业前净工资的70%，救济金长达三年。中产阶级是欧洲的就业主体和纳税主体，高失业救济政策却严重挫伤了其工作热情。而作为福利制度支柱的高税收政策，更是引发富人的恐慌和不满，不少富人选择移民并把资产转移到国外。

Predicament Three: The proportion of social welfare expenditure to GDP in European countries has been continuously rising, making it difficult to alleviate government fiscal deficits in the long term. While the high-welfare policy increases the national happiness index, it causes government finances to fall short of expenditures, resulting in chronic deficits. In 2020, the fiscal deficits of Spain, Greece, Italy, and France as a share of GDP were 11%, 10.1%, 9.6%, and 9.1% respectively. Huge fiscal deficits have led to severe government debt; for example, Italy’s national public debt as a share of GDP was projected to be as high as 145.4% in 2022.

困境之三：欧洲国家社会福利开支占GDP的比重不断上升，导致政府财政赤字长期难以缓解。高福利政策虽然增加了国民幸福指数，却让政府的财政入不敷出、长期赤字。2020年西班牙、希腊、意大利和法国的财政赤字占GDP的比重分别为11%、10.1%、9.6%和9.1%。巨大的财政赤字造成了严重的政府债务，如意大利政府2022年国家公共债务占GDP比重预计高达145.4%。

(4) Theoretical System: The Diminishing of Western Values and the Failure of Neoliberalism

（四）理论制度：西方价值观失色与新自由主义失败

After the end of the Cold War, Western values were once touted by Western politicians and media as “universal values.” The book *The End of History* by American scholar Francis Fukuyama even extolled the Western market economy and democratic politics as the only path for the development of human history. However, in reality, Western values are hypocritical and deceptive. When interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, Western nations often wave the banner of “democracy, human rights, and anti-dictatorship,” yet remain silent when social unrest occurs at home. Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, once publicly stated that the EU is often criticized for playing “double standards,” but the EU indeed does not apply the same standards to all issues. He admitted that “the Western withdrawal from Afghanistan is not only a military failure but also a failure of Western values,” a rare reflection from a high-ranking EU official.

冷战结束后，西方价值观一度被西方政客和媒体吹捧为“普世价值”。美国学者弗朗西斯·福山（Francis Fukuyama）《历史的终结》一书，更是将西方市场经济和民主政治标榜为人类历史发展的唯一道路。但事实上，西方价值观具有虚伪性和欺骗性。西方国家在干涉别国内政时，往往打着“民主、人权、反独裁”旗号，而本国出现社会动乱时却避而不谈。欧盟负责外交与安全事务高官何塞普·博雷利（Josep Borrel）曾公开表示，欧盟经常被批判玩弄“双标”，但欧盟确实不会以相同标准对待所有问题。他承认“西方从阿富汗撤军不仅仅是军事上的失败，也是西方价值观的失败”，这是欧盟罕有的高官反思言论。

Western traditional values have in recent years faced strong challenges from Western populism. Far-right populist parties in Europe, such as France’s National Rally, Germany’s Alternative for Germany, Italy’s Brothers of Italy, and the Sweden Democrats, have continuously won victories in national elections and European Parliament elections, plunging Western democratic politics and traditional values into a predicament. William Hague, former British Foreign Secretary, believes that Western values appear strong and united on the surface but are actually encountering trouble internally. He pointed out that a person (Trump) who shows contempt for “democratic” institutions and outcomes remains a strong contender for re-election as president, indicating that the values uniting Western countries are experiencing a serious and widespread loss of direction.

西方传统价值观近年来遭到西方民粹主义的强力挑战。欧洲极右翼民粹主义政党法国国民联盟、德国选择党、意大利兄弟党以及瑞典民主党等，在本国大选和欧洲议会选举中不断获胜，使西方民主政治和传统价值观陷入困境。曾任英国外交大臣的威廉·黑格（William Hague）认为，西方价值观表面上强大而团结，实际上却在内部遇到了麻烦。他指出，一个对“民主”制度和结果表现出蔑视的人（特朗普），仍然是再度当选总统的有力竞争者，从中可以看出将西方国家团结在一起的价值观正在出现严重而广泛的迷失。

II. Causes and Characteristics of the Systemic Crisis in Western Society

二、西方社会系统性危机成因及其特点

The various problems emerging in contemporary Western society indicate significant drawbacks in the capitalist system and its operational mechanisms. Moreover, behind the dysfunction, loss of control, loss of measure, and loss of luster at various levels of the capitalist system lies a deeper systemic crisis in Western society.

当今西方社会出现的林林总总的问题，说明资本主义制度和运行机制存在较大弊端，不仅如此，在资本主义制度各个层面出现失能与失控、失度与失色等问题的背后，还深藏着西方社会系统性危机。

The current systemic crisis in Western society can be divided into three categories: the first is economic and financial crises; the second is political and ideological crises; the third is social and ecological crises. Regarding the first category, contemporary Western economic crises and “stagflation” crises, financial crises, and public debt crises are all severe, leading to problems such as market failure, decision-making failure, and loss of control over inflation. Regarding the second category, crises in democratic politics, traditional establishment politics, and neoliberalism face unprecedented challenges, resulting in consequences such as democratic failure, the diminishing of values, operational failure of the system, and the rise of far-right populist forces. Regarding the third category, the stubborn problems of the Western social welfare system crisis, ecological crisis, and population aging crisis are prominent, causing setbacks in social security reform, social撕裂 and confrontation, frequent ecological disasters, and labor shortages.

当前西方社会系统性危机可分为三类：第一类是经济危机和金融危机，第二类是政治危机和思想危机，第三类是社会危机和生态危机。从第一类来看，当今西方经济危机和“滞胀”危机、金融危机和公共债务危机都很严重，由此产生了市场失灵、决策失灵和通胀失控等问题。从第二类来看，民主政治危机、传统建制派危机以及新自由主义危机面临空前挑战，导致了民主失灵、价值观失色、制度运行失灵以及极右翼民粹主义势力泛起等后果。从第三类来看，西方社会福利制度危机、生态危机和人口老龄化危机顽疾凸显，造成社保改革受挫、社会撕裂对抗、生态灾难频发以及劳动力短缺等恶果。

(1) The disorderly expansion of Western capital and financial liberalization policies are the main reasons for the decline of the Western real economy and economic financialization.

（一）西方资本的无序扩张和金融自由化政策，是导致西方实体经济衰退和经济金融化的主要原因

Marxism holds that all disastrous consequences caused by the inherent dark side and destructive forces of capitalism originate from the greedy logic of capital and the dominance of capital. The disorderly expansion and catastrophic nature of capital are an important factor leading to the predicament of the Western capitalist system and the economic predicament. Since the 1980s, the proliferation of Western neoliberalism, the acceleration of economic globalization, and the expansion of Western multinational corporations have, on the one hand, caused a large number of manufacturing industries in Western countries to leave their home countries, leading to increasing hollowing out of medium- and low-end manufacturing; on the other hand, they have also led to the financialization and virtualization of the real economy, with the malignant expansion of various financial derivative transactions and stock speculation, ultimately culminating in the 2008 U.S. financial crisis and the 2009 European sovereign debt crisis.

马克思主义认为，资本主义与生俱来的制度阴暗面及破坏性力量所造成的一切灾难性后果，肇始于贪婪无度的资本逻辑和资本主宰。资本的无序扩张和灾难化，是导致西方资本主义制度困境和经济困境的一个重要因素。20世纪80年代以来，西方新自由主义的泛滥、经济全球化的加速以及西方跨国公司的扩张，一方面使得西方国家大批制造业离开本土，中低端制造业日益空心化；另一方面还导致实体经济金融化和虚拟化，各种金融衍生品交易和炒股投机恶性膨胀，最终酿成2008年的美国金融危机和2009年的欧洲主权债务危机。

In recent years, the real economies of the United States and Europe have suffered severe blows, and industrial and supply chains face further risks of rupture. To address the economic crisis and fiscal deficit crisis, the U.S. government has intensified state intervention, launching multiple rounds of fiscal stimulus plans totaling over $6 trillion. By early October 2022, total U.S. government debt reached $31 trillion, equivalent to 125% of U.S. GDP in 2021. According to data released by the UK Office for National Statistics, by the end of January 2021, total UK government debt exceeded £2.1 trillion, accounting for about 97.9% of UK GDP. To cope with the debt crisis, the U.S. government has printed large amounts of dollars, raised interest rates, issued treasury bonds, and compelled its allies to purchase U.S. debt. This practice of attempting to monetize U.S. debt and harvest global financial “leeks” [3]3 “Harvesting leeks” (割韭菜) is a Chinese internet slang metaphor for repeatedly exploiting or extracting wealth from a group of people (the “leeks”), akin to “fleecing” or “milking” in English. Here it refers to the U.S. using monetary policy to extract wealth from the global economy. harms both itself and others, not only shifting debt risks onto other countries but also driving up inflation in the U.S. and European countries, causing ordinary people to suffer deeply.

近年来，美欧实体经济遭受重创，产业链供应链面临进一步断裂风险。为应对经济危机和财赤危机，美国政府加大国家干预力度，推出多轮财政刺激计划，总金额高达6万多亿美元。2022年10月初，美国政府债务总额高达31万亿美元，相当于美国2021年GDP的125%。依据英国国家统计局发布的数据，2021年1月底，英国政府债务总额超过2.1万亿英镑，约占英国GDP的97.9%。为应对债务危机，美国政府大量印发美元，调高利息，发行国债，并且让其盟国购买美债。这种意图将美国债务货币化，收割全球金融“韭菜”的做法害人害己，不但把债务风险转嫁给了他国，而且推高本国和欧洲国家的通货膨胀，让普通民众深受其害。

(2) The Degradation of Western Democratic Institutions Is an Important Cause of the Predicament of Western Political Systems

（二）西方民主制度退化是西方政治制度陷入困境的重要原因

When making major decisions today, Western leaders often fall into a “closed loop” of logical thinking, giving more consideration to ideological coloring, partisan political interests, and national strategic security, while clearly neglecting the interests of the broad masses and the practical development needs of the state. For example, EU leader Ursula von der Leyen, former UK Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz all acted as vanguards of European political elites confronting Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to the deterioration of EU-Russia, UK-Russia, and Germany-Russia relations, ultimately resulting in the European energy crisis. Based on the various performances of Western politicians before and after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, some American and European scholars have drawn a common conclusion that is extremely embarrassing for Western leaders: today’s Western leaders generally lack the capacity for foresight, the ability to restrain emotions, and the capacity for historical awareness, and because there are no outstanding leaders, the West is in a state of decline. American columnist Bret Stephens even lamented that the Western world has no leaders: “We are faced with a failed U.S. president, a timid German chancellor, and a British prime minister about to step down in disgrace.”

当今西方领导人在做出重大决策时，往往陷入“封闭循环”的逻辑思维，更多考虑意识形态色彩、党派政治利益和国家战略安全，明显忽视广大民众利益和国家务实发展需求。如欧盟领导人乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）、英国前保守党领袖鲍里斯·约翰逊（Boris Johnson）和德国总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨（Olaf Scholz）在俄乌冲突中均充当了欧洲政治精英对抗俄罗斯的急先锋，导致欧俄关系、英俄关系和德俄关系交恶，最终酿成欧洲能源危机。一些美欧学者根据俄乌冲突前后西方政客们的种种表现，得出令西方领导人异常难堪的共同结论：如今西方领导人普遍缺乏远见能力、按下情绪的能力以及历史意识能力，并且由于没有杰出的领导人，西方正在一蹶不振。美国专栏作家布雷特·斯蒂芬斯（Bret Stephens）甚至感叹西方世界无领袖：“我们面对着一位失败的美国总统，一位胆怯的德国总理，一位即将灰头土脸下台的英国首相。”

The Western one-person-one-vote political election mechanism continuously exposes the defects of its institutional design. Although Western democratic politics superficially pursues absolute equality in political participation and deliberation, ordinary people do not actually enjoy genuine democratic rights. Western democratic politics is often hijacked by various interest groups, political power is manipulated by capital, and decision-making is mixed with various interest demands, leading to low efficiency in political decision-making, and policies often lack continuity. The degradation of Western democratic politics is particularly prominent in the UK. Since the UK Conservative Party government, produced through democratic voting, embarked on the irreversible path of Brexit in 2016, five prime ministers have rotated in rapid succession. Although the opposition Labour Party has recently led the Conservatives significantly in opinion polls, this has not shaken the ruling position of the internally divided and policy-wavering Conservative Party. The degradation of Western democratic institutions has triggered chaos in Western political arenas and successive waves of strikes and demonstrations at the social level, and has also provided an opportunity for far-right populist parties in Europe to seize state power.

西方一人一票的政治选举机制不断暴露出其制度设计的缺陷性。西方民主政治虽然表面追求参政议政的绝对平等，实际上普通民众并不享有真正的民主权利。西方民主政治往往被各种利益集团绑架，政权被资本操控，加之决策中掺杂各种利益诉求，导致其政治决策的低效率，而且政策往往缺乏延续性。西方民主政治的退化在英国表现尤为突出。通过民主投票产生的英国保守党政府，自2016年走上脱欧不归路以来，走马灯似的轮替了五位首相，尽管反对党工党近期的民调大幅领先于保守党，但丝毫动摇不了内部撕裂、政策摇摆的保守党的执政地位。西方民主制度退化引发西方政坛乱象和此起彼伏的社会层面罢工示威，也给欧洲极右翼民粹主义政党执掌国家权力提供了契机。

(3) The Excessive Movement of Political Ecology Has a Major Impact on Western Economic Development

（三）政治生态运动失度对西方经济发展产生重大影响

The ecological crisis is closely related to the capitalist system and the unchecked expansion of capital. The development model of overproduction and overexploitation formed by capitalism inevitably causes serious damage to the ecological environment. In the process of reflecting on the ecological crisis caused by capitalism, various ecological trends of thought have emerged in contemporary European society, including “ecocentrism,” “eco-socialism,” and “ecological Marxism.” Among them, the “eco-socialism” trend has the attributes of democratic socialism, severely criticizing the ecological disasters caused by the capitalist system, and represents the left wing of the green ecological movement. In recent years, European Green parties, represented by the German Green Party, have risen abruptly and are moving toward the center of European political power. The German Green Party successfully entered the current German government and obtained key positions such as Vice Chancellor, Minister of Economics, and Minister of Foreign Affairs. The European Green Party alliance also ranked among the four major party groups in the 2019 European Parliament elections.

生态危机与资本主义制度和资本无序扩张密切相关。资本主义所形成的过度生产和过度开发的发展模式，必然给生态环境造成严重破坏。在反思资本主义所造成的生态危机的过程中，当代欧洲社会涌现出了各种生态主义思潮，包括“生态中心主义”“生态社会主义”以及“生态马克思主义”等。其中“生态社会主义”思潮具有民主社会主义属性，对资本主义制度造成的生态灾难给予了严厉批判，是绿色生态运动中的左派。近年来，以德国绿党为代表的欧洲绿党异军突起，正走向欧洲政治权力中心。德国绿党成功进入本届德国政府，并获得了副总理、经济部长和外交部长等要职。欧洲绿党联盟在2019年欧洲议会选举中也跻身四大党团行列。

The vigorous development of the political ecology movement helps promote Europe to take the lead globally in achieving a green economic transformation. However, while criticizing the loss of ecological environmental control, the European political ecology movement has taken a deviant path, disregarding the actual development conditions of various European countries and upholding the supremacy of the ecological environment, leading to deviations and errors in major national decisions. The European Green Party advocates strengthening social welfare, caring for vulnerable groups, and placing particular emphasis on climate change and environmental protection. Although these views with left-wing political overtones cater to mainstream public opinion in European society, they have caused some negative consequences in practice. The European social welfare system has become the biggest obstacle to economic development, technological innovation, and fiscal deficit reduction in European countries, and should be reformed, but the Green Party has done the opposite. The relevant policy proposals of the European Green Party will cause the fiscal deficit and public debt problems of European countries to become deeply entrenched and difficult to resolve. For example, after the German Green Party came to power, it ignored its basic national conditions and pushed the government to formulate some unrealistic policies. At the critical moment when the Ukraine crisis led to energy shortages in Germany, Green Party leaders insisted on sanctions against Russia, abandoned the “Nord Stream 2” natural gas pipeline project painstakingly built by Germany and Russia, and advocated suspending energy imports from Russia. This seemingly righteous decision actually harms the country and its people. The German Green Party’s excessive emphasis on ecological environment and value-based diplomacy does not help resolve its energy crisis but will instead drag down Germany’s economic growth and Europe’s economic recovery.

政治生态运动的蓬勃发展有助于推动欧洲在全球率先实现绿色经济转型。但在批评生态环境失控的同时，欧洲政治生态运动却剑走偏锋，不顾欧洲各国的实际发展情况，奉行生态环境至上论，导致国家重大决策出现偏差和失误。欧洲绿党主张强化社会福利，照顾弱势群体，特别重视气候变化和环境保护，这些带有左翼政治色彩的观点虽然迎合了欧洲社会的主流民意，但在实践中却造成了一些消极后果。欧洲社会福利制度已成为欧洲国家经济发展、科技创新和减少财政赤字的最大障碍，理应对其进行改革，但绿党却反其道而行之。欧洲绿党的相关政策主张，将会导致欧洲国家的财政赤字和公共债务问题积重难返。如德国绿党执政后，不顾其基本国情，推动政府制定了一些不切实际的政策。在乌克兰危机导致德国能源短缺的关键时刻，绿党领导人却一味要求对俄制裁，废弃德俄苦心营造的“北溪-2”天然气管道项目，主张中止对俄能源进口。这种看似有正义感的决策，实则误国害民。德国绿党过度重视生态环境和价值观外交的做法，无助于其能源危机的化解，反而会拖累德国经济增长和欧洲经济复苏。

(4) The Loss of Control over Ukraine Crisis Management Further Intensifies Capitalist Social Contradictions

（四）乌克兰危机管理失控进一步激化资本主义社会矛盾

The emergence of the Ukraine crisis, marked by the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict, has complex causes. From the perspective of the diplomatic system, the West’s miscalculation in crisis management is an important reason for the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis and its spillover effects. The outbreak of the Ukraine crisis is an inevitable result of the contemporary expansion process of capitalism. Facing the institutional and social problems caused by the systemic crisis of capitalism, launching wars externally or creating crisis conflicts to divert domestic contradictions and public attention is often a routine operation of the ruling class in capitalist countries. Taking the United States as an example, by creating the Russia-Ukraine war, it can achieve the goal of killing three birds with one stone: first, alleviating the acute social contradictions within the United States, diverting public attention, and making the public focus more on and condemn Russia’s invasion; second, tightly binding European countries to the anti-Russian alliance chariot to serve U.S. interests; third, while “strangling Russia,” the largest competitor of the United States, selling U.S. weapons and natural gas to Europe and making a fortune from the national calamity.

以俄乌地缘冲突为标志的乌克兰危机的出现有其复杂动因，从外交制度层面来看，西方对危机管控失算，是导致乌克兰危机爆发并产生外溢效应的一个重要原因。乌克兰危机的爆发是当今资本主义扩张进程的一个必然结果。面对资本主义系统性危机造成的制度问题和社会问题，对外发动战争或制造危机冲突以转移国内矛盾和民众视线，往往是资本主义国家统治阶级的惯常操作。以美国来说，通过制造俄乌战争可以达到一石三鸟目的：一是缓解当前美国国内尖锐的社会矛盾，转移民众视线，让民众更多关注并谴责俄罗斯的入侵行径；二是把欧洲国家紧紧绑在反俄同盟战车上，为美国的利益服务；三是在“扼杀俄罗斯”这个美国最大竞争对手的同时，把美国的军火和天然气卖到欧洲，大发国难财。

However, EU countries that followed the United States and became deeply involved in the Ukraine crisis have fallen into a series of predicaments. In June 2022, the inflation rate in the 27 EU countries reached 9.6%, energy prices rose 42% year-on-year, and food prices rose 8.9% year-on-year, all hitting record highs. At the same time, the latest opinion polls for German Chancellor Scholz and the German government both hit record lows, with 62% of the public dissatisfied with Scholz and 65% dissatisfied with the new government. The inflation crisis, energy crisis, government crisis, and food crisis are plaguing European society. These crises are precisely the spillover effects of the Ukraine crisis, and in turn, these crises will exacerbate internal contradictions in European society and create more political turmoil.

而追随美国深深卷入乌克兰危机的欧盟国家，却因此陷入了一系列困境。2022年6月，欧盟27国通胀率高达9.6%，能源价格同比上涨42%，食品价格同比上涨8.9%，均创下历史新高。与此同时，德国总理朔尔茨和德国政府的最新民调均创下历史新低，高达62%的民众对朔尔茨不满，65%的民众对新政府不满。通胀危机、能源危机、政府危机及粮食危机困扰欧洲社会，这些危机正是乌克兰危机所产生的外溢效应，反过来这些危机又会加剧欧洲社会的内部矛盾，制造更多的政治动乱。

3. How to View the New Changes and New Problems of Contemporary Capitalism

三、如何看待当今资本主义新变化新问题

In summary, contemporary Western capitalism faces a series of unprecedented political, economic, and social crises, with new changes, new situations, and new problems emerging. How to view these changes and uncertainties is an important task entrusted to Marxist theoretical workers by the times.

总而言之，当今西方资本主义面临一系列前所未有的政治、经济和社会危机，出现了新变化、新情况和新问题。怎样看待这些变化和不确定性，是时代赋予马克思主义理论工作者的一项重任。

(1) Destruction and Rebirth: An Analysis of the Pros and Cons of the Contemporary Capitalist System

（一）毁灭重生：当今资本主义制度利弊分析

In recent years, the various crises and contradictions emerging in Western countries have been complex and intertwined, involving both the capitalist logic of competition for profit and the maladies of the contemporary capitalist system model. Only by examining the two in combination can we deeply analyze the inherent contradictions of capitalism and identify the root causes of the systemic crisis in Western societies. The institutional predicament in contemporary Western society is indeed broad in scope and deep in level; behind phenomena such as the imbalance of the real economy, the failure of state intervention, and the malfunction of democratic politics lies the crisis of the capitalist system itself.

近年来，西方国家出现的各种危机和矛盾错综复杂，既涉及竞争逐利的资本主义逻辑，又涉及当代资本主义制度模式弊病，只有把两者结合起来考察，才能深入剖析资本主义内在的矛盾，找出西方社会系统性危机的根源所在。当今西方社会存在的制度困境的确是宽范围深层次的，在实体经济失调、国家干预失效、民主政治失灵等现象的背后，是资本主义制度本身的危机。

Entering the era of state monopoly capitalism, the intensity of Western government intervention in the economy, finance, and markets has significantly increased. On the surface, this helps to resolve economic crises and ease social contradictions, but in reality, no matter how strong the state intervention, it is difficult to conceal the inherent defects of the capitalist system or fundamentally solve the problems. For example, Western governments all want to implement "reindustrialization" policies, but with little effect. In particular, with the current intensification of the European energy crisis and persistently high inflation, many Western enterprises have thoughts of relocating abroad, making the return of manufacturing difficult. Furthermore, political chaos such as Western political polarization, social fragmentation, and the rise of far-right populism will inevitably have a greater impact on the Western capitalist system. The decline of the Western hegemonic system, with the US dollar at its core and the United States as the hegemon, is closely related to the inherent systemic crisis and institutional defects of the West. The ongoing fermentation of the Ukraine crisis, triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in turn intensifies various contradictions in Western society and accelerates the decline of the Western hegemonic system.

进入国家垄断资本主义时代，西方政府干预经济、金融和市场的力度显著增强，从表面上看有助于化解经济危机、缓和社会矛盾，但实际上国家干预力度再强，也难掩盖资本主义制度固有的弊病，难以从根本上解决问题。例如，西方政府都想实施“再工业化”政策，但收效甚微，特别是当前欧洲能源危机加剧、通胀持续高企，不少西方企业产生外迁念头，制造业回流困难。此外，西方政治极化、社会撕裂、极右翼民粹主义崛起等政治乱象，必将对西方资本主义制度产生更大的冲击。以美元为核心、美国为霸主的西方霸权体系日渐衰落，同西方固有的系统性危机和制度弊病密切相关，而俄乌冲突酿成的乌克兰危机持续发酵，反过来又激化了西方社会的各种矛盾，加速西方霸权体系的衰落进程。

(2) Transformation and Reconstruction: The Development Path of Capitalism in the 21st Century

（二）变革重构：21世纪资本主义发展道路

The world today is undergoing changes unseen in a century. State monopoly capitalism is deeply entrenched and its defects are fully exposed. In the next twenty to thirty years, capitalism will inevitably undergo significant transformations and experience greater pains. The principles established by Western neoliberalism after World War II, the Western capitalist development model, and Western values and the international order are all facing enormous challenges. Therefore, the development path of capitalism in the 21st century will inevitably be filled with more twists and uncertainties.

当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局，国家垄断资本主义积重难返、弊端尽显，未来二三十年资本主义必将作出较大的变革，经历更大的阵痛。第二次世界大战后西方新自由主义确立的原则、西方资本主义发展模式以及西方价值观和国际秩序，都遭遇巨大的挑战。因此，21世纪资本主义发展道路必将充满更多的曲折和不确定性。

The criticism and questioning of the systemic crisis of contemporary capitalism by Western academia will inevitably lead to doubt and reflection on the capitalist political system and the old international order. For the capitalist development path to change, it must fully consider the possible consequences of several variables: First, the crisis of faith triggered by the fading of Western values. Second, the Western-style democratic system cannot ensure that political elites enter the core of political power to govern the country, cannot reduce Western political polarization, and cannot prevent the rise of narrow nationalism and extreme populist forces. Third, neoliberalism has weakened the ability of Western governments to respond to major crises and exacerbated inequality and class differentiation in capitalist society. After abandoning it, Western countries find it difficult to find an effective "theoretical guidance" for a time. Fourth, the future development model of capitalism may be labeled by Western scholars as "green capitalism," "ecological capitalism," "debt capitalism," or "populist capitalism." But no matter which direction it develops, the establishment of a new type of capitalist development model will go through a long period of pain and turbulence.

西方学界对当今资本主义系统性危机的批判质疑，必然引发对资本主义政治体制和国际旧秩序的怀疑反思。资本主义发展道路需要变革，就必须充分考虑若干变量可能带来的后果：一是西方价值观失色引发的信仰危机。二是西式民主制度不能保障政治精英进入政权核心治国理政，不能减少西方政治两极分化，无法阻止狭隘民族主义和极端民粹主义势力上台。三是新自由主义削弱了西方政府应对重大危机的能力，加剧了资本主义社会的不平等和阶级分化，而把它抛弃后的西方国家一时难以找寻到一个有效的“理论指导”。四是未来资本主义的发展模式，可能会被西方学者冠以“绿色资本主义”“生态资本主义”“国债资本主义”或“民粹资本主义”等称谓，但无论朝哪方面发展，资本主义新型发展模式的确立都会经历一个很长的阵痛和震荡期。

(3) The Contest between the "Two Systems": A Profound Shift Favorable to Socialism Has Occurred

（三）“两制”较量：发生了有利于社会主义的深刻转变

The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the drastic changes in Eastern Europe in the 1990s caused a severe imbalance in the balance of power between the two social systems of global capitalism and socialism, plunging the world socialist movement into a low tide. Right-wing Western scholars represented by Fukuyama declared that history had come to an "end," and erroneous theoretical views such as "Western democratic systems will unify the world" and "the neoliberal economic model will become a global development model" were rampant. However, only thirty years later, the balance of power between the two major global social systems has undergone profound changes. Under the strong leadership of the Communist Party of China, socialism with Chinese characteristics has achieved remarkable accomplishments, greatly enhancing our country's comprehensive national strength, national defense capabilities, and international competitiveness, and significantly improving the living standards of the people, causing scientific socialism to radiate strong vitality in China. While the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics is flourishing, major Western countries are facing a series of predicaments such as severe economic damage, malfunctioning political operations, and serious social differentiation. Countries dominated by the two systems of socialism and capitalism form a sharp contrast in terms of state governance, development methods, governance concepts, and policy measures. This situation fully proves that the historical evolution and contest between the two ideologies and two social systems in the world have undergone a major and profound shift favorable to Marxism and favorable to socialism. (Notes omitted)

20世纪90年代苏联解体和东欧剧变的发生，使得全球资本主义与社会主义两种社会制度的力量对比严重失衡，世界社会主义运动陷入低潮。以福山为代表的西方右翼学者宣称历史走向了“终结”，“西方民主制度将统一全世界”“新自由主义经济模式将成为全球发展楷模”等错误理论观点甚嚣尘上。然而仅仅过了30年，全球两大社会制度的力量对比就发生了深刻的变化。在中国共产党的坚强领导下，中国特色社会主义取得了举世瞩目的伟大成就，极大增强了我国的综合国力、国防实力和国际竞争力，显著提高了人民群众的生活水平，使得科学社会主义在中国焕发出强大生机活力。在中国特色社会主义事业蒸蒸日上的同时，西方主要国家却面临着经济严重受损、政治运作失灵、社会严重分化等一系列困境，社会主义和资本主义两种制度主导的国家在治国理政、发展方式、执政理念和政策措施等方面形成鲜明对比。这种状况，充分证明了世界范围内两种意识形态、两种社会制度的历史演进及其较量，发生了有利于马克思主义、有利于社会主义的重大转变、深刻转变。（注释略）

(The author is a professor at the School of International Politics and Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and a researcher at the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

（作者系中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院教授，中国社会科学院欧洲研究所研究员）

Online editor: Zhang Jian

网络编辑：张剑