Reasons for and Analysis of the Australian Labor Party’s 2022 Election Victory

As a political force within the framework of capitalism, the Australian Labor Party occupies a centre-left position on Australia’s political spectrum. Over more than 130 years of development, its attitude toward capitalism has repeatedly oscillated and continuously adjusted between critique and compromise, in an effort to win more votes and greater political space. In the 2022 Australian federal election, the Labor Party defeated the Liberal–National Coalition (hereafter “the Coalition”) to become the largest party in the Federal Parliament. Anthony Albanese became Prime Minister of Australia. The Labor Party returned to the governing seat after nine years out of power.

作为资本主义框架内的一支政治力量，工党在澳大利亚的政治光谱中居于中左位置，在130多年的发展历程中，其对资本主义的态度在批判和妥协之间反复摇摆、不断调适，力图争取更多选票和更大的政治空间。在2022年澳大利亚联邦大选中，工党击败了自由—国家联盟党（以下简称“联盟党”），成为联邦议院第一大党。安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯就任澳大利亚总理。工党在阔别政坛九年之后重登执政宝座。

I. External Environmental Factors in the Australian Labor Party’s Election Victory

一、澳大利亚工党胜选的外部环境因素

Since the 2008 international financial crisis, Australia’s accelerating economic recession, widening gap between rich and poor, and polarisation of the party landscape have promoted a reawakening of workers, laying the social foundation for the return of class politics in Australia.

2008年国际金融危机以来，澳大利亚日益加速的经济衰退、贫富分化及政党格局极化促进了劳动者的再觉醒，为澳大利亚阶级政治的复归奠定了社会基础。

(1) The Widening Social Gap between Rich and Poor

（一）社会贫富差距的拉大

The “golden age” of the Australian economy in the 1950s and 1960s after World War II and the rise of the welfare state once greatly improved the working and living conditions of the broad mass of wage-earning workers, and also led an increasing number of such workers to deny their own working-class identity and classify themselves as middle class. The middle class once became the engine of Australia’s economic development and the ballast of its political stability. However, the 2008 international financial crisis completely shattered the middle-class illusions of the broad mass of wage-earning workers. To cope with the crisis, both Coalition governments and Labor Party governments implemented fiscal austerity policies and welfare reforms. White-collar workers, who had once considered themselves middle class, fell into more severe unemployment, asset shrinkage, wage cuts, and other difficulties than blue-collar workers during the crisis, and the gap between rich and poor in Australia showed a widening trend. A 2020 report jointly released by the Australian Council of Social Service and the University of New South Wales showed that the gap between rich and poor in Australia continued to widen: the average wealth of the rich at the top of the “pyramid” was 90 times that of the poor, and over the past 15 years, the increase in wealth of the rich was more than 11 times that of the poor. The report also studied data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for 2017–2018, showing that the richest 20% of Australia’s population had incomes six times higher than the poorest 20%, compared with five times higher in 2015–2016. The widening gap between rich and poor objectively accumulated increasingly sufficient momentum for the resurgence of the Labor Party, which upholds the concepts of equality and fairness and advocates strengthening government regulation.

二战后五六十年代澳大利亚经济的“黄金时期”和福利国家的兴起，曾极大地改善了广大雇佣劳动者的工作和生活条件，也使越来越多的雇佣劳动者否定自身的工人阶级身份而将自己归为中产阶级行列，中产阶级一度成为澳大利亚经济发展的引擎和政治稳定的压舱石。然而，2008年国际金融危机使广大雇佣劳动者的中产阶级幻想彻底破灭。为了应对危机，联盟党政府和工党政府均推行了财政紧缩政策和福利改革，曾经自以为是中产阶级的白领工人，在危机中陷入了比蓝领工人更为严重的失业、资产缩水、工资下降等困境，澳大利亚的贫富差距出现了拉大趋势。2020年澳大利亚社会服务委员会与新南威尔士大学联合发布的报告显示，澳大利亚贫富差距持续扩大，处于“金字塔”尖的富人平均财富是穷人的90倍，而且过去15年，富人财富升值幅度是穷人的11倍多。这份报告还对2017—2018年澳大利亚统计局的数据进行了研究，结果显示，占澳大利亚人口20%的最富有的人比占20%的最贫困的人收入高出6倍，而这一数据在2015—2016年为5倍。贫富差距的拉大客观上为秉持平等公正理念、主张加大政府调控力度的工党的东山再起聚集了越来越充足的动能。

(2) The Revival of Class Consciousness among Wage-Earning Workers

（二）雇佣劳动者阶级意识的复苏

The widening gap between rich and poor in Australia has accelerated class polarisation. The class structure is quietly changing from an “olive shape” with small ends and a large middle to a “dumbbell shape” with large ends and a small middle. Faced with harsh reality, more and more middle-class people are rethinking their social status and class affiliation, and returning to the ranks of the working class. The trend of the middle class shrinking is increasingly evident. In a survey study by Western scholars on the question, “In politics, people sometimes talk of ‘left’ and ‘right’. On a scale from 0 to 10, where would you place yourself? 0 means left, 10 means right. Using the same scale, where would you place the two federal parties?”, it was found that the degree of left–right polarisation between the two parties reached 2.6 points in 2019, the highest since 2004. Among this, the average gap between voters’ positions and the Liberal Party’s position was 1.5 points, and the average gap between voters’ positions and the Labor Party’s position was 1.1 points, showing a more obvious tendency for voters to lean left. Looking back at history, the Labor Party stepped onto the political stage with the support of the trade union movement and as the spokesperson of the working class. In the process of growing into a major Australian political party, the Labor Party long relied on the firm support of working-class voters and established close ties with them. The return of the middle class undoubtedly strengthened the class forces for the Labor Party to regain its governing position.

澳大利亚贫富差距的拉大带来了阶级分化的加速，阶级结构正在从两头小、中间大的“橄榄形”向两头大、中间小的“哑铃形”悄然变化。在残酷的现实面前，越来越多的中产阶级重新思考自己的社会地位和阶级归属问题，并回归工人阶级队伍，中产阶级逐渐萎缩的趋势愈加明显。西方学者在针对“在政治中，人们有时谈论‘左’和‘右’。在从0到10的范围内，你会把自己放在哪里？其中，0表示左边，10表示右边。用同样的标准，你会把两个联邦政党放在哪里？”这一问题的调查研究中发现，2019年两党之间的左右两极分化程度达到2.6分，为2004年以来的最高纪录，其中，选民立场与自由党立场之间的平均差距为1.5分，选民立场与工党立场之间的平均差距为1.1分，选民向左靠拢的趋向更加明显。回溯历史，工党是在工会运动的支持下、以工人阶级代言人的身份走上政治舞台的。工党在成长为澳大利亚主要政党的过程中，曾长期倚重工人阶级选民的坚定支持，并与之建立了密切联系。中产阶级的回归无疑为工党重拾执政地位壮大了阶级力量。

(3) The Relative Decline of the Coalition

（三）联盟党的相对式微

During nine consecutive years in government, frequent internal strife within the Liberal Party led to multiple changes of party leader. On 15 September 2015, after Malcolm Turnbull launched a “coup” to force Tony Abbott to step down, the Coalition led by Turnbull held only a narrow majority in government, repeatedly hindering the Coalition’s progress on key policy agendas. After 2018, factional struggles within the Liberal Party intensified. Turnbull faced a “palace coup”, and Treasurer Scott Morrison was elected Liberal Party leader, becoming Prime Minister. The frequent change of prime ministers exacerbated the instability of Australian politics and aroused public discontent.

在连续执政的九年时间里，自由党的频繁内斗导致党首多次更替。2015年9月15日，马尔科姆·特恩布尔发动“政变”迫使托尼·阿博特下台之后，特恩布尔领导的联盟党仅占政府中的微弱多数，致使联盟党在推进关键政策议程时屡屡受阻。2018年以后，自由党内部派系斗争加剧，特恩布尔遭遇“逼宫”，财政部部长斯科特·莫里森当选自由党党首，上台就任总理。总理的频频易人加剧了澳大利亚政局的不稳定，引发了群众的不满。

Moreover, turbulent domestic politics left Australia’s political elites exhausted by frequent party struggles, with no time to address various challenges in domestic and foreign affairs. The austerity budget pushed by the Abbott government cabinet severely undermined the Coalition’s governing position. Turnbull failed to formulate coherent policies from taxation to energy and other areas; the “coup” occurred after the Coalition’s approval ratings had lagged behind the Labor Party for 38 consecutive polls. During Morrison’s term, crises such as bushfires, floods, the pandemic, high inflation, severe deterioration of relations with China, and stagnant national income left the Australian economy weak and Morrison subject to widespread doubt and criticism. Especially in early 2021, a series of sexual scandals exposed by the Australian government caused an uproar, miring the Coalition government in a political quagmire and severely damaging its image in the eyes of the public. A poll published by *The Australian* showed that the Liberal Party’s approval rating had fallen to its lowest point since 2019. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation commented that in this election, the public generally felt a desire for “change out of frustration”.

不仅如此，动荡不安的国内政治使澳大利亚政治精英为频繁的党争所累，无暇应对内政外交上的种种挑战。阿博特政府内阁推行的紧缩预算案严重动摇了联盟党的执政地位。特恩布尔没能从税收到能源等领域制定出连贯的政策，“政变”是在联盟党支持率连续38次落后于工党的情况下发生的。在莫里森任期内，野火、洪灾、疫情、高通胀、与中国关系严重恶化、国民收入停滞等危机把澳大利亚经济搞得疲软不堪，也让莫里森饱受质疑和批评。尤其在2021年初，澳大利亚政府先后曝出的一系列性丑闻掀起了轩然大波，使联盟党政府深陷政治泥潭，其在民众心目中的形象严重受损。《澳大利亚人报》公布的一项民调结果显示，自由党的支持率已降到2019年以来的最低点。澳大利亚广播公司评论称，本届大选民众普遍有一种“因挫折而改变”的渴望。

II. Internal Supporting Factors in the Australian Labor Party’s Election Victory

二、澳大利亚工党胜选的内部支撑因素

The profound changes in Australia’s social environment and the enormous pressure of long-term opposition led the Labor Party to re-examine itself and to carry out changes and adjustments in policy concepts, organisational systems, and leader image. These became the internal factors supporting the Labor Party’s election victory.

澳大利亚社会环境的深刻变化及长期在野的巨大压力使工党重新审视自身，并在政策理念、组织体系及领袖形象等方面进行了变革和调适，这成为支撑工党胜选的内部因素。

(1) Policy Concepts Shifted Back to the Left

（一）政策理念向左回调

In the late 1990s, seeking survival within the framework of neoliberal theory, the Australian Labor Party followed the example of the British Labour Party onto the “Third Way”. However, the Australian Labor Party found it difficult to coordinate conflicts among different interest groups, failed to produce political concepts that could effectively integrate the lower and middle strata of society, and, due to the contradictory and vague nature of its policies, failed to rescue Australia’s economic and social crisis. From the perspective of its social base, the Labor Party, in its effort to attract the support of the urban middle class, deviated from its traditions, lost its voice on issues of social fairness, disappointed the expectations of grassroots voters, and thereby lost the stable support of its core working-class voters.

20世纪90年代末，在新自由主义理论框架下谋生存的澳大利亚工党在英国工党的示范下走上了“第三条道路”。但是，澳大利亚工党难以协调不同利益集团之间的冲突，没能产生能够有效整合社会中下层的政治理念，也因为政策的矛盾性和模糊性而没能挽救澳大利亚的经济社会危机。从社会基础来看，工党为吸引城市中产阶级的支持而偏离了工党的传统，失去了对社会公平议题的话语权，辜负了底层选民的期望，就此失去了工人阶级核心选民的稳定支持。

Faced with the revival of working-class consciousness, it became imperative to reconstruct left-wing politics and social democratic programmes. Returning to left-wing traditions became a new trend in the Labor Party’s transformation during the periods of Bill Shorten and Albanese. During this time, the Labor Party attempted to respond to the demands of the working class by moving closer to traditional left-wing positions.

面对工人阶级意识的复苏，重构左翼政治和社会民主主义方案势在必行，重拾左翼传统成为比尔·肖顿和阿尔巴尼斯时期工党变革的新趋向。在此期间，工党试图采取向传统左翼立场靠近的方式回应来自工人阶级的诉求。

First, opposing economic inequality and widening the ideological distance from neoliberalism. The Labor Party adopted a “small-target” strategy, focusing on economic issues. Shorten opposed the Turnbull Coalition government’s plan to reduce the corporate tax rate from 30% to 25%, on the grounds that “the unfairness of the policy exacerbates inequality of outcomes,” arguing that the Liberal Party’s position was “to give tax cuts to the top end of town while everyone else scrapes by.” Paul John Keating and Julia Eileen Gillard, during their tenures as Labor leaders, both advocated lowering the corporate tax rate, reflecting a profound shift in Labor’s stance. In fact, by the 2016 election, the Labor Party under Shorten had consolidated its ideological distance from the neoliberal reforms of the Bob Hawke and Keating eras. Shorten emphasized that despite decades of economic growth, income and wealth gaps were widening, and economic inequality was at its highest level in 75 years. Additionally, Shorten broke with Labor tradition by publicly criticizing wealthy business interests, calling them “the top end of town.” Meanwhile, workers’ incomes were at their lowest in half a century; he regarded inequality as “the greatest threat to our economic health and social cohesion.” Under Shorten’s leadership, Labor formulated a series of policies reflecting fairness. For example, new programs in areas such as childcare and elderly dental care would be funded by closing tax loopholes that were essentially regressive, through higher taxes on “the top end of town.” Following Shorten, Albanese, as an “old Labor man” and a member of the party’s left wing, placed greater emphasis on Labor’s credibility as the representative of middle- and lower-income working groups. He pointed out that against a backdrop of 5.1% inflation, people’s incomes in 2022 had increased by only 2.4%, the lowest rate since 1998. He pledged to help Australians secure higher-paying jobs, repair the “broken bargaining system,” and achieve real growth in the minimum wage, planning to use increased public spending to address the cost-of-living crisis—for example, by adding £4.1 billion in government expenditure on childcare, free TAFE and continuing education, renewable energy, and Medicare. Overall, the Labor Party under Shorten and Albanese paid greater attention to economic inequality, adopting more social-democratic methods and fewer market-oriented approaches to industrial relations and economic management than under Rudd, and especially than under Gillard. Both Shorten and Albanese used more traditional, interventionist left-wing discourse, attempting to correct the economic and social inequalities faced by marginalized groups, emphasizing that the failures of Australia’s market economy were the cause of rising inequality and other social ills.

第一，反对经济不平等，拉开与新自由主义的意识形态距离。工党奉行“小目标”战略，把重点放在经济问题上。肖顿反对特恩布尔联盟党政府将公司税率从30%降至25%的计划，理由是“政策的不公平性加剧了结果的不平等现象”，认为自由党的立场是“给城市顶层人士减税，让其他人勉强度日”。保罗·约翰·基廷和朱莉娅·艾琳·吉拉德在担任工党领袖期间都主张降低公司税率，这反映了工党立场的深刻变化。事实上，到2016年大选时，肖顿领导下的工党已经巩固了与鲍勃·霍克和基廷时期新自由主义改革的意识形态距离。肖顿强调，尽管经济增长了几十年，但收入和财富差距日益扩大，经济不平等处于75年来的最高水平。另外，肖顿还打破了工党的传统观念，公开批评富有的商业利益集团，称它们为“城市的最顶端”。而工人的收入是半个世纪以来最低的，他认为不平等是“对我们经济健康和社会凝聚力的最大威胁”。在肖顿的领导下，工党制定了一系列体现公平的政策。比如，在儿童护理和老年人牙科护理等领域的新计划将通过对“城市的最顶端”征收更高的税收来弥补本质上是累退的税收漏洞。继肖顿之后，阿尔巴尼斯作为“老工党人”，同时作为党内的左派，更加强调工党作为中下层劳动群体代言人的信誉。他指出，在通货膨胀率高达5.1%的背景下，2022年人们的收入却只增加了2.4%，这是1998年以来最低值。他承诺将帮助澳大利亚人获得更高薪的工作，修复“破碎的谈判制度”，并实现最低工资的真正增长，计划用更多的公共开支来解决生活成本危机，例如计划增加41亿英镑的政府支出用于儿童保育、免费技术和继续教育、可再生能源和医疗保险等方面。整体来看，肖顿和阿尔巴尼斯时期的工党更加关注经济不平等问题，对于劳资关系和经济管理采取了比陆克文时期，特别是吉拉德时期更多的社会民主主义方法和更少的市场化方法。肖顿和阿尔巴尼斯都使用了更传统、更具干预主义色彩的左翼话语，试图纠正边缘群体遭遇的经济和社会不平等，强调澳大利亚市场经济的失败是导致不平等加剧和其他社会弊病的原因。

Second, racial policies became more inclusive and progressive. On the basis of emphasizing the economic exploitation and growing inequality faced by all Australians, Shorten and Albanese particularly stressed their willingness to acknowledge the disadvantages and discrimination faced by racial and ethnic minority groups based on their racial identity. They continued the discourse of Keating and Rudd on Indigenous issues, emphasizing the need to acknowledge and correct past wrongs, to compensate for the intergenerational impact of forced removal, and to provide financial compensation for the “Stolen Generations.” [1]1 The “Stolen Generations” refers to the Australian government policy, particularly active from the early 20th century to the 1970s, of forcibly removing Indigenous children from their families and communities to be raised in institutions or by white families, aiming at assimilation. Comparing their discourse on Indigenous issues with that of Gillard reveals a clear progressive shift. Gillard’s discourse focused on responsibility, while Shorten and Albanese focused on self-determination and measures to address existing and historical disadvantages. At the same time, they upheld Labor’s consistent position that multiculturalism not only makes Australian culture and society more vibrant but is also a key driver of economic growth and prosperity. Shorten strongly opposed the Abbott Coalition government’s proposal to amend the Racial Discrimination Act, [2]2 The Racial Discrimination Act 1975 is Australian federal legislation that prohibits racial discrimination. The Abbott government’s 2014 proposal to amend Section 18C, which makes it unlawful to offend, insult, humiliate, or intimidate someone on racial grounds, was widely seen as an attempt to weaken protections for minority groups. exposing the Coalition government’s strategy of using racial and cultural issues to mask its unequal economic policies, and pledged to establish a A$10 million national healing fund for Indigenous people and their families. Albanese emphasized Labor’s commitment to the full implementation of the Uluru Statement from the Heart, [3]3 The Uluru Statement from the Heart is a 2017 document produced by a convention of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, calling for constitutional reforms including a “Voice to Parliament” (an Indigenous advisory body), a treaty-making process, and a truth-telling commission. pledging to hold a constitutional referendum to amend the constitution, enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament in the Australian Constitution, establish a parliamentary advisory body called the “Voice to Parliament,” and enable Indigenous people and Torres Strait Islanders to participate in decisions concerning their land.

第二，种族政策更具包容性和进步性。肖顿和阿尔巴尼斯在强调所有澳大利亚人面临的经济剥削和日益加剧的不平等问题的基础上，特别强调愿意承认种族和少数族裔群体基于种族身份所面临的劣势和歧视。他们延续了基廷和陆克文关于原住民问题的论述，强调承认和纠正过去的错误，要弥补强制迁移带来的代际影响，为“被偷走的一代”提供经济补偿。如果将他们关于原住民问题的论述与吉拉德的论述进行比较，会发现其进步性非常明显。吉拉德的论述侧重于责任，而肖顿和阿尔巴尼斯则侧重于民族自决以及解决现有和历史不利条件的措施。同时，他们坚持了工党的一贯主张，认为多元文化主义不仅可以促使澳大利亚的文化和社会更有活力，而且是经济增长和繁荣的关键驱动力。肖顿强烈反对阿博特联盟党政府修改《反种族歧视法案》的提议，揭露了联盟党政府把种族和文化问题作为掩盖其不平等经济政策的策略，承诺为原住民及其家庭成员设立1000万美元的国家康复基金。阿尔巴尼斯强调，工党致力于推动《乌鲁鲁声明》（Uluru Statement from the Heart）的全面实施，承诺举行全民公投修宪，将原住民在议会中的发言权引入澳大利亚宪法，设立国会顾问组织“向国会传达原住民之声”，让原住民和托雷斯海峡岛民参与和他们土地有关的决策。

Third, adopting more proactive policies to address climate change. The Labor Party has consistently advocated low-carbon emission reduction policies and supported climate governance. During Shorten’s tenure as Labor leader, taking action on climate change was a core issue for the party. Shorten upheld Rudd’s decision during his second term as Labor leader to make the abolition of the carbon tax a Labor policy. [4]4 The carbon tax was a price on carbon emissions introduced by the Gillard Labor government in 2012, repealed by the Abbott Coalition government in 2014. At the same time, he advocated for an emissions trading scheme for industry and called for increased renewable energy production, including greater investment in renewable energy technology. In the 2019 federal election, Shorten proposed a series of climate policies, including a proposal to ensure a 45% reduction in carbon emissions from 2005 levels by 2030 and for 50% of Australia’s energy to come from renewable sources. Overall, Labor sought to revive the effective framework for addressing climate change that had existed since 2007 and attempted to frame climate action as a key point of contention between the two major parties, aiming to demonstrate that Labor had a more modern and pragmatic action plan than the Coalition to address the threat of climate change. In recent years, as climate change-induced issues such as natural disasters have directly impacted Australian society and increasingly aroused public concern, Labor placed climate action in a more prominent position in the 2022 federal election, heavily playing the “low-carbon card.” Labor’s pledge was to use market adjustment mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions by 43% from 2005 levels by 2030 and to increase the share of renewable energy generation from 31% in 2021 to 82% by 2030. Albanese sought to portray Australia as an emerging climate leader on the global stage, claiming that Australia had returned to the fight against climate change and was prepared to play a leading role in addressing the increasingly severe climate crisis.

第三，以更加积极的政策应对气候变化。工党一贯倡导低碳减排政策，支持气候治理。在肖顿担任工党领袖期间，采取行动应对气候变化是工党的核心议题。肖顿坚持了陆克文在第二次担任工党领袖期间的决定，将取消碳排放税作为工党的政策。但同时，他主张制定行业碳排放交易计划，并呼吁增加可再生能源生产，包括增加对可再生能源技术的投资。在2019年联邦大选中，肖顿提出了一系列关于气候的政策主张，其中包括一项到2030年确保碳排放在2005年的基础上减少45％以及澳大利亚50%的能源来自可再生能源的提案。总体来看，工党试图重拾2007年以来应对气候变化的有效框架，并试图将气候变化行动构建为两党之间的重要争论点，其目的是表明工党具有比联盟党更现代、更务实的行动方案来应对气候变化的威胁。近年来，由于自然灾害等气候变化引发的问题直接冲击澳大利亚社会而愈发引起民众关切，在2022年联邦大选中，工党把气候行动放在了更加优先的位置，大打“低碳牌”。工党给出的承诺是，运用市场调节机制，到2030年将碳排放量在2005年的基础上减少43%，并将可再生能源发电比例从2021年的31%提高到2030年的82%。阿尔巴尼斯试图将澳大利亚塑造为全球舞台上新兴的气候领导者，声称澳大利亚已经回到了应对气候变化的斗争中，并准备在应对日益严重的气候危机中发挥领导作用。

(II) Vigorously recruiting party members and further expanding intra-party democracy

（二）大力吸收党员，进一步扩大党内民主

In response to the loss of party members, the Labor Party passed a resolution at its 2015 party conference to recruit a large number of members. This included not only promoting more convenient and faster “one-click” online membership applications, encouraging young people, Indigenous people, and women to join, encouraging union members to join as individuals, and offering membership fee discounts and other measures to encourage voters to join, but also adapting to the demands of the information age and networked era by innovatively establishing various “issue branches” to provide a platform for young people who were unwilling to join traditional geographically based branches but were interested in specific policy issues. Furthermore, to build a reserve of party members, Labor also established an online “think tank” to attract supporters outside the party. Additionally, to allow more ordinary party members to participate in the party’s policy-making process, starting in 2015, Labor changed the decision-making mechanism for the Australian National Platform, shifting from the form of a National Party Conference to a National Policy Forum. Among the 65 members of the National Policy Forum, in addition to 5 Labor MPs and 20 members of the Labor caucus, there were also 20 representatives of Labor branch members and 20 union representatives. They jointly participated in the formulation of Labor’s platform and policies, enhancing the participation and decision-making rights of grassroots party members within the party.

针对党员流失现象，工党在2015年党的代表大会上通过了大量招募党员的决议，不仅通过推行更为方便快捷的“一键式”网上入党申请，鼓励年轻人、原住民、女性入党，鼓励工会会员以个人身份入党，提供党费优惠等多种措施鼓励选民入党；还适应信息化、网络化时代发展的需求，创新性地成立了各类“议题支部”，为那些不愿加入传统地理意义上的党支部但对某项政策议题感兴趣的年轻人搭建开展活动的平台；不仅如此，为了储备党员后备力量，工党还在网上成立了“智囊团”，以吸引党外支持者加入。另外，为了让更多的普通党员参与到党的政策制定过程中，自2015年开始，工党改变了《澳大利亚国家纲领》的决策机制，由党的全国代表大会的形式转变为了全国政策论坛的方式，在全国政策论坛的65位成员中，除了有5名工党议员和20名工党核心小组成员之外，还有20名工党分支成员代表和20名工会代表。他们共同参与工党纲领政策的制定，提高了基层党员在党内的参与权和决策权。

(III) Reshaping the image of candidates

（三）重塑候选人形象

During the period when Shorten served as leader of the Labor Party, the party introduced a series of well-developed policies. However, due to media revelations that Shorten was the behind-the-scenes driver of Gillard’s replacement of Rudd in 2010 and of Rudd’s return in 2013, as well as his involvement in union corruption cases, the perception that “Shorten is not trustworthy” became deeply ingrained. Although throughout his career as opposition leader Shorten strove to portray himself as the leader of a strong team and worked to improve his own image, he never became the “preferred prime minister” in the eyes of the public, and for a long time lagged behind the Liberal Party leader in competition. As one scholar noted: “Shorten’s public image is that of a robot without firm convictions, yet his policies are more numerous and bolder than those of any opposition leader.” However, the election results showed that leadership is more important than policy. In the 2019 general election, although the Labor Party’s overall support rate led the Coalition, on the question of the best candidate for prime minister, Shorten’s support rate dragged down the Labor Party’s electoral prospects and hampered its political ambitions.

在肖顿担任工党领袖期间，工党推出了一系列酝酿成熟的政策。然而，由于媒体爆料肖顿是2010年吉拉德取代陆克文和2013年陆克文二次出山的幕后推手，以及其曾卷入工会腐败案件等，导致“肖顿不值得信任”的说法深入人心。尽管在作为反对党领袖的生涯中，肖顿努力将自己塑造为强大团队的领袖，着力于改善自身形象，但他一直没能成为民众心目中的“首选总理”，长期在同自由党领袖的竞争中处于下风。正如有学者提到的：“肖顿的公众形象是一个没有坚定信念的机器人，可他的政策比任何一个反对党领袖都要多、都要大胆。”然而，选举结果显示，领导力比政策更重要。在2019年大选中，尽管工党的支持率总体上领先联盟党，但在最佳总理人选上，肖顿的支持率拉低了工党的选情，拖累了工党的政治抱负。

After losing the 2019 general election, Shorten announced his resignation. In the subsequent election for a new Labor Party leader, Albanese was elected as the sole candidate. Unlike many previous Australian prime ministers, Albanese comes from a truly “grassroots” background. He grew up in public housing in Camperdown, and his mother was a disability pensioner. Although his origins were humble, after graduating from the University of Sydney with a degree in economics, Albanese immediately entered politics. He joined the federal parliament in 1996, served as Minister for Infrastructure and Transport and other positions during the Labor Party’s period in government from 2007 to 2013, and briefly served as Deputy Prime Minister in 2013. Albanese never shies away from his background; instead, he uses “grassroots” as an identity label, frequently visiting communities to listen to public opinion. His grassroots origins enable him to truly understand the situation of disadvantaged groups and to know better how to create opportunities for those in unfavorable circumstances.

2019年大选落败后，肖顿宣布辞职，在随后启动的工党新领袖选举中，阿尔巴尼斯作为唯一参选人当选。与澳大利亚以往的多任总理不同，阿尔巴尼斯出身于真正意义上的“草根”阶层，他在坎伯唐公租房长大，其母亲是一名残疾养老金领取者。虽然出身坎坷，但是阿尔巴尼斯从悉尼大学经济学专业毕业后遂即步入政坛，1996年就进入联邦议会，2007—2013年工党执政期间，他曾担任基础设施和运输部部长等职务，并于2013年短暂担任过副总理。阿尔巴尼斯从不避讳自己的出身，而是将“草根”作为身份标签，屡次前往社区倾听民意，“草根”的出身使他能够真正理解弱势群体的处境，更懂得如何为身处不利环境的人创造机会。

Moreover, after becoming Labor Party leader, in order to make himself more attractive to voters, Albanese lost 9 kilograms, and focused on shaping his image with more fashionable suits and glasses. According to a survey by the Australian polling organization Newspoll, voters considered Albanese “trustworthy,” “has a plan for the country’s future,” and “cares about the people.” Albanese’s moderate and pragmatic image, along with his closeness to the grassroots, won voter support, making him the best candidate for prime minister in the eyes of Australians.

不仅如此，担任工党领袖之后，为了使自己对选民更有吸引力，阿尔巴尼斯瘦身18斤，注重以更为时尚的西装和眼镜塑造自己的形象。根据澳大利亚民调机构Newspoll的调查显示，选民认为阿尔巴尼斯“值得信任”“对国家的未来有规划”“关心民众”。阿尔巴尼斯温和务实、其亲近底层的形象赢得了选民的支持，使他成为澳大利亚人心目中的最佳总理人选。

III. Analysis of the Australian Labor Party’s 2022 Election Victory

三、2022年澳大利亚工党胜选评析

This election victory by the Labor Party shows that, as the backbone of Australia’s moderate left, the Labor Party still plays an irreplaceable role on the Australian political stage. However, various signs indicate that the Labor Party’s return this time is very limited, and it still faces numerous challenges in its future development.

工党的此次胜选表明，作为澳大利亚温和左翼的中坚力量，工党在澳大利亚政治舞台上仍然扮演着不可替代的角色。但是，种种迹象表明，工党的此次回归非常有限，其在未来的发展中仍然面临重重挑战。

(A) The Labor Party’s Return Is Limited

（一）工党的回归有限

First, the Labor Party’s comparative advantage in vote share is limited. The Labor Party’s victory in the 2022 federal election obscures the fact that its primary vote in the House of Representatives (32.58%) hit a historic low. The Coalition’s primary vote (35.49%) was also very low. Together, Labor and the Coalition won only about two-thirds of the primary vote, while 31.93% of voters cast their primary votes for other minor parties and independent candidates. However, under Australia’s “preferential voting system,” traditional parties have a clear advantage in elections, meaning voters must indicate a preference for either Labor or the Liberal/National Party, even if these parties are not the voters’ first choice. As one poll showed, two days before the election, one-third of Australians still “disliked” any candidate party, but voters nonetheless had to choose one of the two “evils” to form the next government. This allowed Labor, despite receiving less than one-third of the primary vote, to ultimately win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives. Based on Labor’s low primary vote, some scholars argue that Labor’s victory relied on “tepid support.”

第一，工党得票率的比较优势有限。工党在2022年联邦大选中的胜利掩盖了一个事实，即它在众议院的初选选票（32.58%）跌破了历史新低，联盟党的初选选票（35.49%）也很低，工党和联盟党加起来只赢得了大约2/3的初选选票，而31.93%的选民将他们的初选票投给了其他小党和独立候选人。只不过在澳大利亚的“偏好投票制”下，传统政党在选举中具有明显优势，即选民必须表明对工党或自由党/国家党的偏好，尽管这些政党不一定是选民的首选。正如有民调显示，大选前两天仍有1/3的澳大利亚人“不喜欢”任何一个候选党派，但无论如何选民都必须从两个“恶魔”中选出一个以组建下一届政府。这使工党尽管在初选中获得的选票不足1/3，但最终在众议院获得了超过半数的席位。基于工党的初选票数较低，有学者认为工党的胜利靠的是“不温不火的支持。

Second, the degree of the Labor Party’s ideological correction is limited. Looking at the Australian Labor Party’s development history, its ideology and political positioning have undergone multiple adjustments. In the 1950s, under the Cold War environment, in order to ease the right wing’s opposition to socialism within the party and to accommodate the interests of middle-class voters who did not align with the Labor Party’s socialist goals, the party modified its traditional goal of “the socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange” to a new goal of “the democratic socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange,” establishing a democratic socialist ideology. Since the 1980s, the rise of neoliberalism meant that the Keynesianism long pursued by the Labor Party had lost its effectiveness under new economic conditions. The Labor Party thus began to pay more attention to economic efficiency. Its abandonment of the concept of “nationalisation” and its promotion of the concepts of “privatisation” and “marketisation” indicated the neoliberalization of its democratic socialist ideology. Since the mid-1990s, the Labor Party, having undergone the baptism of neoliberalism, faced an “identity crisis” caused by its political rightward shift. To break through the political limitations of previous left- and right-wing parties and to establish the distinctiveness of the Labor Party’s political ideas and identity, the Labor Party embarked on the “Third Way.” However, the rise of far-left political groups such as “GetUp” in Australia shows that left-wing progressive values and the lower and middle classes still need political representatives, but the Labor Party is no longer their only choice. In recent years, the Labor Party has oscillated and adjusted, returning to left-wing traditions, attempting to clarify its political stance of more strongly defending the interests of the lower and middle classes. However, the facts show that the Labor Party only seeks to correct unfair phenomena in the real economy and society by further restricting the power of capital and financial privileged groups. Its reflection and criticism of the shortcomings of neoliberalism reflect more the failure of national governance under the impact of the economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Its leftward ideological turn is a limited adjustment with a distinctly pragmatic character.

第二，工党意识形态的回调程度有限。纵观澳大利亚工党的发展历程，其意识形态和政治定位出现过多次调整。20世纪50年代，在冷战环境下，为了缓和党内右派对社会主义的反对态度，并照顾那些与工党社会主义目标不一致的中间阶层选民的利益，工党将传统的“工业、生产、分配和交换的社会主义化” 目标修改为“工业、生产、分配和交换的民主社会主义化”的新目标，确立了民主社会主义意识形态。80年代以来，新自由主义的兴极一时意味着工党长期奉行的凯恩斯主义在新的经济形势下已经失去效力，工党由此开始更加关注经济效率问题，其对“国有化”理念的放弃，对“私有化”“市场化”理念的推崇，表明着其民主社会主义意识形态的新自由主义化。90年代中期以来，经过新自由主义洗礼的工党面临着因政治右倾化带来的“身份危机”，为了突破以往左右翼政党的政治局限并树立起工党政治理念和政治身份的特殊性，工党走上了“第三条道路”。然而，“起来”（GetUp）等极左翼政治团体在澳大利亚的崛起表明左翼进步价值和社会中下阶层民众仍需要政治代言人，但工党不再是其唯一选择。近年来工党在摇摆调适中复归左翼传统，试图明确其更多维护中下层民众利益的政治立场，然而事实表明，工党只是通过更多限制资本及金融特权群体的权力来纠正现实经济社会中的不公平现象，其对新自由主义弊端的反思与批判，更多折射的是经济危机和新冠疫情冲击下国家治理失效的问题，其在意识形态上的左转是具有鲜明实用主义色彩的有限调整。

Third, the Labor Party’s dominant power to advance political issues in parliament is limited. After Albanese took office, the Labor government faces a series of livelihood issues domestically in the post-pandemic era, such as curbing prices, promoting employment, and addressing climate change, and faces political issues externally, such as improving relations with China and strengthening international cooperation. Looking at parliamentary seats, among the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, Labor won 77 seats, just over half; the Coalition won 58 seats; and of the remaining 16 seats, the Centre Alliance won 1 seat, Katter’s Australian Party won 1 seat, the Greens won 4 seats, and independent candidates won 10 seats. This means that although Labor holds power, due to its insufficient parliamentary advantage, it will inevitably face multiple constraints and attacks in the new government, and will likely encounter obstacles everywhere when advancing political issues.

第三，工党在议会中推进政治议题的主导力有限。阿尔巴尼斯执政后，工党政府对内面临后疫情时代抑制物价、促进就业、应对气候变化等一系列民生难题，对外面临与中国改善关系、加强国际合作等政治议题。而从议会席位来看，在众议院的151个席位中，工党获得77席，刚刚过半数，联盟党获得58席，另外的16个席位中，中央联盟获得1席，凯特澳大利亚党获得1席，绿党获得4席，独立候选人获得10席。这意味着工党虽然执掌大权，但由于议会优势不足，必然将在新一届政府中受到多方制约和夹击，在推进政治议题时难免会出现处处掣肘的局面。

(B) The Labor Party’s Future Development Still Has a Long Way to Go

（二）工党的未来发展仍然任重道远

First, how to clarify its own positioning. Attempting to re-establish left-wing identity characteristics through reform is the Labor Party’s effort to win back the trust of traditional working-class voters. Although returning to left-wing traditions has a certain social foundation in the context of the economic crisis and the post-pandemic era, in the long run, as the social class differentiation in Australia accelerates, the traditional link between class and political party has relatively weakened, and voters’ tendency toward pragmatic voting has become increasingly evident. Therefore, how to correctly assess its own positioning and handle the relationship between firmly standing on class positions and absorbing diverse forces still requires arduous exploration by the Labor Party.

第一，如何明确自身定位。试图通过改革重新确立左翼身份特征，是工党为赢回传统工人阶级选民的信任所进行的努力。回归左翼传统虽然在经济危机以及后疫情时代的背景下有一定的社会基础，但从长远来看，随着澳大利亚社会阶层分化的日益加快，阶级和政党之间的传统联系相对弱化，选民的实用性投票倾向愈发明显。因此，如何正确评估自身定位，处理好站稳阶级立场和吸纳多元力量的关系，仍然需要工党进行艰苦探索。

Second, how to overcome the bottleneck of theoretical innovation. The 2008 international financial crisis exposed the drawbacks of neoliberalism, and the Labor Party attempted to draw a clear line with neoliberalism and escape the theoretical predicament of the “Third Way.” However, whether it was Shorten or Albanese, although both strove to give a left-wing theoretical coloring to their positions opposing fiscal austerity, opposing social inequality, raising taxes on the wealthy, and increasing social welfare, in reality this remained limited to a critique of neoliberalism, without finding a new discourse model embodying the characteristics of social democracy. For the Labor Party to correct the “Third Way’s” compromise with neoliberalism, it needs to break through the bottleneck of social democratic theoretical innovation and promote the construction of a new political discourse that is both inheritable and contemporary, thereby further guiding the Labor Party’s sustainable development.

第二，如何克服理论创新瓶颈。2008年国际金融危机暴露了新自由主义的弊端,工党试图划清与新自由主义的界限，走出“第三条道路”的理论困境。但是，无论肖顿还是阿尔巴尼斯，虽然都努力为其反对财政紧缩、反对社会不公平、提高富人税收、增加社会福利等政见涂上左翼理论色彩，但实际上仍然仅限于对新自由主义的批判，并未寻找到一种新的体现社会民主主义特色的话语模式。工党要纠正“第三条道路”对新自由主义的妥协，需要突破社会民主主义的理论创新瓶颈，推动构建兼具传承性和时代性的新政治话语，从而进一步指导工党的可持续发展。

Third, how to break through the policy predicament under the structural crisis of capitalism. The new round of transformation in the Labor Party reflects the progressiveness of its left-wing policies. However, the policies Albanese promised during the election campaign—such as tax relief and building affordable housing to reduce the cost of living for the people—all require strong national financial support. Yet, according to relevant data from the Australian Treasury, Australia has not emerged from the economic predicament triggered by the 2008 international financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic has caused the government to accumulate a large amount of additional debt. It is estimated that by the 2024–2025 fiscal year, government debt will reach a peak of 981 billion Australian dollars (government debt as a share of GDP will reach 40.9%), approximately four times higher than at the end of 2019 before the pandemic. Faced with the rigid demand for economic recovery, the Labor government must inevitably increase revenue and reduce expenditure. It can be seen that after the election, the Labor government has already made compromises: not only continuing the Morrison government’s tax cuts for high-income groups, but also not significantly reducing the mining and coal industries. As a reformist party, the Labor Party is committed to correcting unreasonable phenomena in Australia’s economic and social construction within the framework of the capitalist system. However, against the backdrop of the worsening structural crisis of capitalism in the post-pandemic era, the extent to which the Labor Party can break through the left-wing policy predicament remains highly uncertain.

第三，如何在资本主义结构性危机下突破政策困境。工党的新一轮变革体现出其左翼政策的进步性，但是，阿尔巴尼斯在大选中承诺的税收减免、建设经济适用房等减轻民众生活成本的政策无不需要国家财政的有力支持。然而，根据澳大利亚财政部有关数据显示，澳大利亚并未走出2008年国际金融危机引发的经济困境，而新冠疫情又使政府积累了大量额外债务。预计到2024—2025财年，政府债务会达到9810亿澳元的峰值（政府债务在国内生产总值中的占比将达到40.9%），比疫情之前的2019年底高出约四倍。面对经济复苏这一刚需，工党政府必然要开源节流。可以看到，大选后的工党政府已经作出妥协，不仅延续了莫里森政府对高收入群体的减税政策，也没有大幅削减采矿、煤炭产业。作为改良主义政党，工党致力于在资本主义制度框架内纠正澳大利亚经济社会建设中存在的不合理现象，但是，在后疫情时代资本主义结构性危机加重的背景下，工党到底能在多大程度上突破左翼政策困境，仍具有很大的不确定性。

IV. Conclusion

四、结语

The Australian Labor Party’s recapture of governing power in 2022 seems to run counter to the trend of right-wing revival in most Western countries. Looking globally, although individual cases such as the New Zealand Labor Party in 2020 and the German Social Democratic Party in 2021 retaking the cabinet indicate initial signs of a warming trend for the center-left, the overall depressed state of Western social democratic parties has not been fundamentally reversed. Amid the changes unseen in a century and the post-pandemic era, the influence of traditional mainstream Western political parties continues to weaken, with votes increasingly flowing from traditional major parties to emerging parties and independent candidates. Judging from the results of Australia’s 2022 election, the number of seats held by independent candidates in the House of Representatives increased from three to ten. Among them, the sudden rise of “teal” independent candidates, while shaking some of the Liberal Party’s “vote banks,” has also strengthened the forces of Australia’s right-wing conservatives. At the same time, the wave of populism in Australia remains surging; far-right parties such as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and the United Australia Party are still very active. For the Labor Party to forge ahead against the waves in the future, it must continue to expand and deepen its own path of reform and development.

澳大利亚工党在2022年夺回执政地位，似乎与西方多数国家右翼复兴的趋势背道而驰。纵观全球，尽管还有2020年新西兰工党、2021年德国社民党重掌内阁等个别案例昭示着中左翼政治初现回暖的迹象，但西方社会民主党整体低迷的态势仍未得到根本扭转。在世界百年未有之大变局及后疫情时代，西方传统主流政党的影响力仍在减弱，选票越来越多地从传统大党流向了新兴政党及独立候选人。从澳大利亚2022年大选结果来看，独立候选人所占众议院议席从先前的三个增加到了十个，其中“蓝绿色”独立候选人的异军突起在动摇自由党部分“票仓”的同时，也壮大了澳大利亚右翼保守势力的力量。同时，澳大利亚的民粹主义浪潮仍然波涛汹涌，单一民族党、澳大利亚联合党等极右翼政党依然非常活跃，未来工党要破浪前行还需要继续拓展和深化自身的改革和发展之路。

Online editor: Tongxin

网络编辑：同心