New Changes and Characteristics of Contemporary Capitalism

Under the compounded impact of multiple factors—including changes unseen in a century, the ongoing global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the turbulent great-power games triggered by the Ukraine crisis—the current global governance order is facing all-round challenges from the "four major deficits": the governance deficit, the trust deficit, the peace deficit, and the development deficit. Instability and uncertainty in the international situation have markedly increased. In response, General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: "The world pattern is in a historical process of accelerated evolution, generating a large number of profound and complex practical problems and raising many theoretical issues that urgently need answers. This requires us to strengthen our research on contemporary capitalism, analyze and grasp its various changes and their essence, and deepen our understanding of the laws governing the profound and complex changes in capitalism and international political and economic relations." Since the end of World War II, and especially since the beginning of the 21st century, contemporary capitalism, due to intricate and complex reasons, has exhibited changes and characteristics different from those of the past. By critically revealing the important new changes in contemporary capitalism and prospectively exploring its main characteristics, we can more comprehensively, dialectically, and farsightedly grasp the basic contradictions and general laws of contemporary capitalism, thereby enhancing our precise judgment of the correct direction of human society's forward progress.

在世界面临百年未有之大变局、新型冠状病毒感染疫情持续在全球蔓延以及由乌克兰危机触发的大国博弈波谲云诡等多重复合因素的叠加冲击下，当前全球治理秩序正面临着治理赤字、信任赤字、和平赤字、发展赤字这“四大赤字”的全方位挑战，国际形势中的不稳定性与不确定性显著增强。对此，习近平总书记指出：“世界格局正处在加快演变的历史进程之中，产生了大量深刻复杂的现实问题，提出了大量亟待回答的理论课题。这就需要我们加强对当代资本主义的研究，分析把握其出现的各种变化及其本质，深化对资本主义和国际政治经济关系深刻复杂变化的规律性认识。”第二次世界大战结束以后特别是进入21世纪以来，当代资本主义由于错综复杂的原因，呈现出了一些不同以往的变化态势与特点。通过对当代资本主义的重要新变化进行批判性揭示，以及对当代资本主义的主要特点进行前瞻性探究，有助于我们用更加全面、辩证和长远的眼光准确把握当代资本主义的基本矛盾与一般规律，藉此加强对人类社会向前迈进正确方向的精准研判。

New Changes in Contemporary Capitalism

当代资本主义的新变化

From the perspective of historical materialism, the new changes in contemporary capitalism are the result of multiple factors influencing and constraining each other, exerting a combined force. Among these, the surging wave of the new technological revolution and the countercurrents of the globalization process are undoubtedly two major driving forces and key actors that have highly triggered and deeply embedded themselves in the ups and downs of contemporary capitalism.

从历史唯物主义的视角来看，当代资本主义出现的新变化是由多种因素彼此影响、交相制约进而发挥合力作用的结果。而这其中，风起云涌的新科技革命浪潮与逆流涌动的全球化进程，无疑是高度促发并深度嵌入当代资本主义起伏跌宕的两大主力推手与重要角色。

A Withered Tree Blossoms Again: Contemporary Capitalism Catches the Era's Dividend of the Technological Revolution. Marx and Engels asserted in the *Communist Manifesto*: "The bourgeoisie cannot exist without constantly revolutionizing the instruments of production, and thereby the relations of production, and with them the whole relations of society." "Constant revolutionizing of production, uninterrupted disturbance of all social conditions, everlasting uncertainty and agitation distinguish the bourgeois epoch from all earlier ones." The renowned German philosopher Jürgen Habermas, in his systematic examination of the intrinsic connection between capitalism and science and technology, also argued that a distinctive feature distinguishing capitalism from previous social forms is precisely its reliance on science and technology to develop the productive forces. In particular, "since the last quarter of the 19th century, two striking developmental trends have emerged in the most advanced capitalist countries: first, the strengthening of state intervention, which ensures the stability of the system; second, the advancement of interdependence between scientific research and technology, which has made science the primary productive force." [1]1 Jürgen Habermas, *Toward a Rational Society: Student Protest, Science, and Politics*, trans. Jeremy J. Shapiro (Boston: Beacon Press, 1970), p. 100. Contemporary capitalism, which once fell into the quagmire of "stagflation" after World War II, is no exception. It has likewise, by riding the "east wind" of the new technological revolution, continuously innovated the instruments of production, actively adjusted the relations of production and all social relations, and "blown" the productive forces of capitalist society into a high-speed leap, thereby periodically escaping the "end of history."

枯木又逢春：当代资本主义赶上科技革命浪潮的时代红利。马克思、恩格斯在《共产党宣言》里曾断言：“资产阶级除非对生产工具，从而对生产关系，从而对全部社会关系不断地进行革命，否则就不能生存下去。”“生产的不断变革，一切社会状况不停的动荡，永远的不安定和变动，这就是资产阶级时代不同于过去一切时代的地方。”著名德国哲学家尤里根·哈贝马斯，在系统考察资本主义与科学技术的内在联系时，也认为资本主义区别于以往社会形态的一大显著特征正是依靠科学技术去发展生产力，尤其“自19世纪后25年以来，在最先进的资本主义国家中出现了两种引人注目的发展趋势：其一，强化国家干预，这确保了制度的稳定；其二，推进科学研究与技术之间的相互依存，这使科学成了第一位的生产力”①。第二次世界大战之后一度深陷“滞胀”泥淖的当代资本主义自不能例外，同样也是藉由新科技革命的“东风”，不断革新生产工具，积极调整生产关系和全部社会关系，“吹动”资本主义社会的生产力高速飞跃，进而阶段性地跳脱了“历史的终结”。

The technological revolution is a historical phenomenon dating back to the 16th century, during which scientific revolutions and technological revolutions have often been intertwined and mutually reinforcing. It is generally believed that since modern times, human society has experienced three technological revolutions, and a fourth is currently gestating. In fact, a comprehensive overview of the history of capitalism's emergence and development shows that every previous historic leap forward was inseparable from the powerful impetus of the contemporary technological revolution. The first technological revolution began in the mid-18th century, marked by the invention, improvement, and widespread use of the steam engine, ushering human society into the "Steam Age." This groundbreaking technological revolution created an unprecedented expansion in the textile, metallurgical, machinery, shipbuilding, and maritime industries, replacing individual workshop handicraft production with large-scale factory production. It greatly promoted the rapid development of social material productive forces, primarily in European countries led by Britain, enabling Western capitalism to shake off the shackles of feudalism, establish the capitalist system, and gradually begin colonial rule worldwide. The second technological revolution occurred at the end of the 19th century, centered on breakthroughs in electrical energy and the emergence of the internal combustion engine. This technological innovation laid a new power foundation for the rapid development of social production, moving human society from the "Steam Age" into the "Electric Age," which was also the first "golden age" of capitalist development. The "spillover" of electrical technology applications promoted comprehensive development in many other technological fields, creating the necessary material and technical conditions for organizing modern industrial production on a larger scale and for the automation of production processes. At the same time, it sharply intensified hegemonic struggles and economic crises within capitalist society, pushing capitalism into the monopoly stage. The uneven development of capitalist countries accelerated the formation of the world colonial system. The third technological revolution sprouted in the 1940s and peaked in the 1970s, marked by the widespread application of atomic energy, electronic computers, and space technology. It created the second "golden age" of capitalist development, sweeping through almost all developed capitalist countries, including the United States, Britain, Japan, and Germany. It propelled capitalism into the stage of state monopoly capitalism and showed signs of transitioning to a higher stage of international monopoly capitalism through the global strategic deployment of giant multinational corporations. It not only drove the comprehensive upgrading of traditional industrial technologies but also pushed human society toward the new high ground of the knowledge economy. Its most direct and critical byproduct was that the United States, as the "epicenter" of the third technological revolution, maintained an overall leading position in the comprehensive national power competition with the Soviet Union, ultimately enabling the capitalist world to win a "war without smoke" without a fight. The international communist movement suffered unprecedented severe setbacks in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

科技革命是自16世纪以来的一种历史现象，其间科学革命与技术革命常常呈现出交织伴生、相辅相成的状态。一般认为，自近代以来人类社会已发生过三次科技革命，目前正在孕育第四次科技革命。事实上，纵览资本主义的发生发展史，以往所取得的每一次历史性巨大进步都与当时科技革命的强力推动密不可分。第一次科技革命开始于18世纪中叶，以蒸汽机的发明改良和广泛使用为标志，自此人类社会迈进了“蒸汽时代”。横空出世的科技革命造就了纺织工业、冶金工业、机械工业、造船业以及航海业的空前大发展，以大规模工厂化生产取代个体工场手工生产，极大地推动了以英国为首的欧洲各国社会物质生产力的迅猛发展，使西方资本主义摆脱了封建主义枷锁，确立了资本主义制度，逐步开始在世界范围内进行殖民统治。第二次科技革命发生于19世纪末，以电能的突破以及内燃机的出现为中心的技术革新为社会生产的迅速发展奠定了新的动力基础，使人类社会从“蒸汽时代”跨入了“电气时代”，也是资本主义发展的第一个“黄金时代”。电力技术应用的“外溢”，促进了其他诸多技术领域的全面发展，为在更大规模上组织现代化的工业生产以及生产过程的自动化创造了必要的物质技术条件，同时也急剧地加深了资本主义社会的霸权争夺与经济危机，使资本主义发展到垄断阶段，资本主义各国发展不平衡加速了世界殖民体系的形成。第三次科技革命萌芽于20世纪40年代而高潮于20世纪70年代，以原子能、电子计算机和空间技术的广泛应用为主要标志，造就了资本主义发展的第二个“黄金时代”，席卷了美国、英国、日本、德国等几乎所有的发达资本主义国家，促使资本主义跨入国家垄断资本主义阶段，并有凭借巨型跨国公司的全球战略布局向更高级的国际垄断资本主义阶段过渡之势。它不仅带动了传统产业技术的全面升级，而且促使人类社会开始向知识经济的新高地迈进。而其最为直观紧要的一个副产品是美国作为第三次科技革命的“震中”，在与苏联之间的综合国力较量中整体上处于领先地位，最终促使资本主义世界在一场“没有硝烟的战争”中不战而胜，国际共产主义运动在20世纪80年代末90年代初遭受了史无前例的严重挫折。

The fourth technological revolution, currently underway, is a new round of technological revolution led by the digital economy and intelligent manufacturing. It is based on the knowledge systems of the previous three technological revolutions, supplemented by the advantages of emerging technology clusters such as information engineering and manufacturing engineering, achieving interactive mapping and deep integration of cyberspace, physical space, and biological space. The fourth technological revolution is a cross-cutting and comprehensive new industrial revolution involving multiple disciplines, fields, new materials, new energy sources, and new resource development—also known as "Industry 4.0." It has become the main driving force for the economic and social development of contemporary capitalism. American scholar Dan Schiller refers to capitalism entering this new stage as "digital capitalism." In his view, in the era of digital capitalism, traditional labor-capital relations have undergone new changes, further intensifying labor-capital contradictions. However, objectively speaking, contemporary capitalist countries represented by the United States, Japan, and developed European capitalist nations have, by vigorously promoting technological innovation, significantly increased labor productivity and substantially reduced production costs. On the surface, they have gradually overcome the "aftereffects" left by the 2008 international financial crisis and unleashed the potential and vitality of economic development, creating conditions for capitalism to self-adjust. This has both temporarily eased class contradictions and effectively promoted the development of contemporary capitalism. Therefore, this withered tree of contemporary capitalism, by continuously consuming the era's dividends of the new round of technological revolution, has been able to blossom again and sprout new life.

当前正处于进行时的第四次科技革命是以数字经济、智能制造为先导的新一轮科技革命，它立基于前三次科技革命的知识体系，辅之以信息工程、制造工程等新兴技术集群优势，实现网络空间、物理空间与生物空间的交互映射与深度融合。第四次科技革命是涉及多学科、多领域、新材料、新能源、新资源开发的交叉而综合的新工业革命，也即“工业革命4.0”，已经成为当代资本主义经济社会发展的主要动力。美国学者丹·席勒将步入新阶段的资本主义称之为“数字资本主义”，在其看来，数字资本主义时代，传统的劳资关系又产生了新的变化，劳资矛盾进一步激化。然而客观来说，以美国、日本、欧洲发达资本主义国家为代表的当代资本主义国家，通过大力推进科技创新使劳动生产率大幅提高、生产成本大幅降低，表面上已逐步克服了2008年国际金融危机留下的“后遗症”，并激发出了经济发展的潜力和活力，为资本主义进行自我调节创造了条件，这样既暂时缓和了阶级矛盾，又有效促进了当代资本主义的发展。因此，当代资本主义这棵已枯之木，正是连续吃到了新一轮科技革命的时代红利，才得又逢春再萌新生。

A Gleam of Hope Yet No Clear Path Ahead: Contemporary Capitalism Stirs Up a Countercurrent in the Process of Globalization. The wave of the new technological revolution is one of the fundamental reasons for the rapid increase in the productive forces of capitalist society, while an insatiable, almost ravenous pursuit of surplus value and a fiercely covetous competition for international markets constitute an original driving force that spurs capitalism to "dance to the tune" of the various stages of the globalization process. Since the geographical discoveries at the end of the 15th century and the opening of new sea routes broke the natural isolation between different regions of the world, the process of globalization has gradually advanced in depth, now spanning over 500 years. Western capitalist powers seized the initiative in the early stages of globalization. The industrial production capacity of countries such as Europe and the United States became excessive, and large quantities of goods were sold far and wide across the globe, bringing them immense social wealth while objectively greatly accelerating the international division of labor, propelling the world into the era of liberal capitalism. Carrying the residual power of the advanced productive forces brought by the first and second technological revolutions, the developed Western capitalist countries and the vast number of developing countries and regions gradually formed a "center-periphery" structure, as proposed by Raúl Prebisch, the founder of Latin American developmentalist theory. By the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, capitalism transitioned from the stage of free competition to that of monopoly. Various imperialist countries promoted their capital globalization strategies through violent means. In pursuit of exorbitant monopoly profits, old and new capitalist powers did not hesitate to resort to world wars in their desire to re-divide global colonial markets.

柳暗花未明：当代资本主义掀起全球化进程逆流。新科技革命浪潮是资本主义社会生产力得以快速提升的根本原因之一，而对于剩余价值如饥似渴般的疯狂追求以及对于国际市场得陇望蜀式的激烈角逐，乃是资本主义紧随全球化进程的各个不同阶段“闻风起舞”的一股原初动力。自15世纪末的地理大发现和新航路的开辟一举打破世界各地区之间的天然隔绝以来，全球化进程即开始逐步向纵深推进，至今已历经500余载。西方资本主义列强在全球化早期阶段抢得先机，欧美等国的工业生产能力出现过剩，大量商品远销全球各地，为其带来巨额社会财富的同时，客观上也大大加速了国际产业分工，推动世界进入自由资本主义时代。裹挟第一次科技革命、第二次科技革命带来的先进生产力余威，西方发达资本主义国家与广大发展中国家和地区逐渐形成了拉美发展主义理论创始人劳尔·普雷维什所提出的“中心—外围”结构。到19世纪末20世纪初，资本主义从自由竞争阶段过渡到了垄断阶段，各帝国主义国家纷纷通过暴力手段推行其资本全球化战略，为了追逐高额垄断利润，新老资本主义大国相互之间甚至不惜诉诸世界大战欲求重新瓜分全球殖民地市场。

After two world wars, the "old guard" capitalist countries—Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and others—were all severely battered, while the capitalist "upstart," the United States, profited handsomely from all sides, rapidly rising to eventually become the "bellwether" of the contemporary capitalist camp. Following World War II, the Bretton Woods system, constructed under U.S. leadership, not only strengthened hegemonism for a long period but also, with U.S. support, brought about the rapid post-war recovery of Europe and Japan. Particularly noteworthy was the accelerating pace of integration among European countries within the contemporary capitalist camp, which at the time seemed a "vivid" model of the triumphant march of globalization. However, beneath the seemingly glamorous and prosperous surface, capitalism was actually harboring a huge developmental crisis. Entering the 1970s, due to the combined internal and external pressures of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the impact of the oil crisis, the severe situation of "stagflation" forced capitalist countries to re-examine their guiding ideologies and governance policies. Economically, this provided conditions for the rise of neoliberalism; politically, it led to the ascendancy of right-wing forces in European and American countries, strengthening macroeconomic regulation to cope with the economic crisis and partial repair measures for social crises, alleviating the immediate crisis and existential concerns to a limited extent.

历经两次世界大战，英国、法国、德国、意大利、日本等资本主义“遗老”悉数遭受重创，而资本主义“新贵”美国却“左右逢源”大发横财，迅速崛起并最终成为当代资本主义阵营的“领头羊”。第二次世界大战之后，由美国主导构建的布雷顿森林体系不仅在很长一段时期内强化了霸权主义，而且也在其扶持下带来了欧洲与日本的战后快速复苏，尤为值得一提的是当代资本主义阵营中欧洲国家一体化的步伐不断加快，在当时俨然成为全球化进程正一路高歌猛进的一个“鲜活”范本。不过，在看似光鲜亮丽的繁荣外表之下，资本主义实则潜藏着巨大的发展危机。进入20世纪70年代以后，由于布雷顿森林体系的崩溃、石油危机的冲击等因素内外夹攻，“滞胀”的严峻形势迫使资本主义国家不得不重新审视它们的指导思想和施政方针，在经济上为新自由主义的兴起提供了条件，在政治上则导致欧美国家右翼势力得势，加强了为应对经济危机所进行的宏观调控以及对社会危机的局部修复举措，在有限程度上缓解了燃眉之急、存续之忧。

After the end of the Cold War, contemporary capitalist countries were not long immersed in the dream of a "democratic victory" over their old rival, the socialist Soviet Union, before they were startled to find that the globalization process, once as smooth as walking on level ground, had fallen into a situation of "sailing against the current," facing unprecedented strong resistance. Because the peoples of many countries and regions around the world could not share the fruits of globalization as relatively evenly and fairly as the people of Western capitalist countries, new trends such as the globalization of production, trade, investment, finance, and consumption, while deepening global interdependence, also led to the accelerated emergence and accumulation of numerous global problems—ecological imbalance, environmental pollution, population explosion, resource shortages, drug trafficking, and the frequent occurrence of international terrorism. The call for global governance became increasingly urgent. At the beginning of the 21st century, from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis that originated on Wall Street to the international financial crisis that swept across major global financial markets, from the Ebola virus raging in Africa to the COVID-19 pandemic spreading worldwide, the risks facing the development of human society produced a "blowout effect," including both low-probability, high-risk "black swans" and high-probability, high-risk "gray rhinos." Faced with intractable dilemmas, the potential crises in various aspects of contemporary capitalism erupted collectively. The political landscape of many capitalist countries underwent significant transformation, and the shortcomings of Western "democratic" systems, where capital excessively corrodes "democracy," were fully exposed in the sunlight. The ill-fated process of globalization repeatedly encountered chaotic countercurrents. "Anti-globalization" trends of thought, such as unilateralism, populism, and trade protectionism, surged like undercurrents, while "de-globalization" actions, such as "withdrawing from groups," "abrogating treaties," and "decoupling," emerged one after another. It must not be overlooked that in this process, the hegemonic bullying practices of contemporary capitalism, especially those of certain major capitalist countries, and the humanitarian disasters they have created, "have completely torn apart the lies of Western democratic values and vividly exposed the ugly faces of European and American countries." [2]2 This is a quotation from an unspecified Chinese source, likely a commentary or academic work, criticizing Western democracy and the actions of Western countries. Trapped by the continuous global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global value chain, industrial chain, and supply chain—these "three chains"—are all on the verge of rupture and damage, urgently needing repair and reconstruction. The unexpectedly strong spillover effects of the pandemic are like a "magnifying glass," invisibly amplifying people's doubts and criticisms of the globalization process. The "global village" is unlikely to see a "gleam of hope in the dark" [3]3 "柳暗花明" (liǔ àn huā míng) is a Chinese idiom meaning "a gleam of hope in the dark" or "a way out of a predicament," originally from a poem by Lu You (1125–1210) of the Song Dynasty. The author uses it ironically in the title and here to suggest that no such hope is forthcoming. in the foreseeable future, and the situation of contemporary capitalism, which is highly synchronized with this, is at times frenzied and perverse, at times languid and hopeless.

冷战结束之后，当代资本主义国家沉醉于击败老对手社会主义国家苏联的“民主的胜利”迷梦未久，身为全球化主要受益者的西方资本主义国家即惊觉曾几何时如履平地的全球化进程如今也陷入了逆水行舟的境地，面临着前所未有的强大阻力。由于世界上许多国家和地区的人民，并不都能像西方资本主义国家的人民一样相对均衡公平地共享全球化所带来的成果，生产全球化、贸易全球化、投资全球化、金融全球化、消费全球化等新趋势在推动全球相互依赖程度加深的同时，也导致了生态失衡、环境污染、人口爆炸、资源短缺、毒品泛滥、国际恐怖主义频现等诸多全球性问题以加速度涌现与累积，倡导全球治理的呼声随之变得愈加迫切。21世纪伊始，从祸起华尔街的美国次贷危机到波及全球主要金融市场的国际金融危机，从埃博拉病毒在非洲肆虐到新型冠状病毒感染疫情在全世界蔓延，人类社会发展面临的各种风险产生“井喷效应”，其中既有小概率高风险的“黑天鹅”，也有大概率高风险的“灰犀牛”。面对令人棘手的困局，当代资本主义各方面的潜在危机集中爆发，不少资本主义国家的政治格局发生了重大转变，资本对“民主”过度腐蚀的西方“民主”制度弊端也在阳光下充分暴露出来。命运多舛的全球化进程不得不屡遇乱世逆流，单边主义、民粹主义、贸易保护主义等“反全球化”思潮暗流汹涌，“退群”“废约”“脱钩”等“逆全球化”行径层出不穷。不容忽视的是，在这一过程中，当代资本主义尤其是某些资本主义大国的霸凌主义行径及其所制造的人道主义灾难，“彻底撕碎了西方民主价值观的谎言，淋漓尽致地展现了欧美国家的丑恶嘴脸”。②受困于新型冠状病毒感染疫情在全球层面的持续蔓延，全球价值链、产业链和供应链“三链”皆濒于断裂破损亟待修复重构，疫情出人意料的超强外溢效应更是宛若一面“放大镜”，无形中放大了人们对于全球化进程的犹疑与指斥，“全球村”在可预见的一段时期内料难迎来柳暗花明，而与之高度同频共振的当代资本主义的境况也自是时而癫狂乖张时而萎靡无望。

Characteristics of Contemporary Capitalism

当代资本主义的特点

Although the government institutions and elite strata of capitalist countries have made various efforts—some effective, some futile—to alleviate the crisis, the inherent contradiction between socialized production and private ownership of the means of production, which is innate to capitalism, determines that this crisis cannot be fundamentally eliminated. As the wheels of the era roll forward, the internal contradictions of capitalist society become increasingly acute. The national governance and future development of contemporary capitalism are increasingly falling into a predicament.

尽管资本主义国家的政府机构和精英阶层为疏解危机作出了或有效或徒劳的各种努力，但资本主义与生俱来的生产社会化与生产资料私人占有之间的固有矛盾决定了这一危机不可能从根本上消除。随着时代的车轮滚滚向前，资本主义社会的内在矛盾愈加尖锐化，当代资本主义的国家治理与未来发展正日益陷入困顿之中。

Fate Is Ultimately Inescapable: The Development of Contemporary Capitalism Has Not Changed Its Historical Destiny of Being Replaced. In the *Communist Manifesto*, Marx pointed out very clearly that the bourgeoisie “first produces its own gravediggers. Its fall and the victory of the proletariat are equally inevitable,” which is the idea commonly referred to as the “two inevitables” — the inevitable demise of capitalism and the inevitable victory of socialism. However, when we look back at history, in the same year of 1848 a large-scale bourgeois democratic revolutionary movement broke out on the European continent, and the proletariat began to step onto the political stage as an independent political force. Marx and Engels, who had actively participated in this revolution and placed high hopes on its development, found through research after the revolution’s failure that the fundamental reason why a new high tide of proletarian revolution did not follow as quickly as initially anticipated was that capitalism at that time still had considerable capacity for expansion, and the total productive forces it could accommodate had not yet been fully unleashed. After further practice and reflection, Marx made a more objective, scientific, and comprehensive judgment in the 1859 preface to *A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy*: “No social order is ever destroyed before all the productive forces for which it is sufficient have been developed, and new superior relations of production never replace older ones before the material conditions for their existence have matured within the framework of the old society.” The history of modern capitalism has repeatedly proven that, in order to survive and develop, capitalism actively promotes scientific and technological revolutions and strives for institutional innovation, aiming to continuously develop productive forces at an ever more rapid pace and constantly adjust relations of production and social relations. This makes capitalism, which is “inevitably doomed,” appear to be “rotten but not decayed, moribund but not dead.” Reality reflects theory; grasping the internal logical relationship between the two, Marx’s idea of the “two noes” is a reasonable extension and necessary implication of his idea of the “two inevitables”: the “two inevitables” reveal the specific laws of development of capitalist society, while the “two noes” reveal the general laws of development of human society; the “two inevitables” highlight the objective inevitability of socialism replacing capitalism, while the “two noes” emphasize the long-term arduousness of socialism replacing capitalism.

宿命终难违：当代资本主义的发展并未改变被代替的历史命运。在《共产党宣言》中，马克思曾非常明确地指出，资产阶级“首先生产的是它自身的掘墓人。资产阶级的灭亡和无产阶级的胜利是同样不可避免的”，即人们常说的资本主义必然灭亡、社会主义必然胜利的“两个必然”思想。然而当我们回望历史，同在1848年欧洲大陆上爆发了一场规模宏大的资产阶级民主革命运动，无产阶级开始作为一支独立的政治力量登上了政治舞台，曾积极投身这场革命并对革命发展寄予厚望的马克思、恩格斯在革命失败之后通过研究发现，无产阶级革命新高潮之所以并没有像最初预想的那样很快随之而来，一个最根本的原因就在于当时资本主义还有很大的扩展能力，其所能容纳的全部生产力尚未得到充分发挥。而经过后来更多的实践与思考，1859年马克思在《政治经济学批判》序言中作出了更为客观、科学和全面的研判：“无论哪一个社会形态，在它所能容纳的全部生产力发挥出来以前，是决不会灭亡的；而新的更高的生产关系，在它的物质存在条件在旧社会的胎胞里成熟以前，是决不会出现的。”近代资本主义发展史一再证明，资本主义为了生存与发展，积极推动科技革命，努力进行制度创新，意在不断以更加迅猛的速度发展生产力，不断调整生产关系和社会关系，从而使得“必然灭亡”的资本主义看起来似乎“腐而不朽，垂而不死”。现实折射理论，结合二者之间的内在逻辑关系来把握，马克思的“两个决不会”思想是其“两个必然”思想的合理延伸与应有之义：“两个必然”揭示的是资本主义社会的特殊发展规律，而“两个决不会”揭示的是人类社会的一般发展规律；“两个必然”彰显的是社会主义代替资本主义的客观必然性，而“两个决不会”强调的是社会主义代替资本主义的长期艰巨性。

Needless to say, having gone through different stages such as liberal capitalism, private monopoly capitalism, state capitalism, and international monopoly capitalism over several centuries up to the present, contemporary capitalism has in fact undergone earth-shaking changes. Its institutional construction in various aspects has become more mature, and it still possesses a relatively strong capacity for self-innovation, self-sublation, self-adjustment, and self-repair. This enables contemporary capitalism to still exhibit a certain potential for development and vitality within a certain period. Therefore, only by applying the Marxist stance, viewpoint, and method can we more comprehensively understand and accurately recognize the many new changes that have occurred in contemporary capitalism and its future new trends. In other words, compared with the capitalism examined by Marx and Engels at the time, and even compared with the capitalism of the first half of the 20th century, contemporary capitalism still possesses what Marx called the “capacity for expansion.” Nevertheless, even so, this has not and cannot change the historical destiny that capitalism will ultimately and inevitably be replaced by socialism.

毋庸讳言，数百年间历经自由资本主义、私人垄断资本主义、国家资本主义以及国际垄断资本主义等不同阶段延续至今，当代资本主义实际上已经发生了翻天覆地的变化，各方面的机制建设更趋成熟，其自身仍具有较强的自我革新、自我扬弃、自我调适和自我修复的能力，这使得当代资本主义在一定时期内依然表现出一定的发展潜力和生命力。因此，我们唯有运用马克思主义的立场、观点和方法，方能更为全面地理解和准确认识当代资本主义所发生的诸多新变化及其未来新趋势。换言之，相较于马克思、恩格斯当时所考察的资本主义，甚至较之于20世纪上半叶的资本主义，当代资本主义仍具有马克思所说的那种“扩展能力”。不过即便如此，仍然没有也不可能改变资本主义最终必然被社会主义所代替的历史命运。

The proactive adjustments and self-improvements of contemporary capitalism have indeed, to some extent, enhanced the ability and level of bourgeois rule and exploitation, reduced the volatility of economic fluctuations and the destructiveness of economic crises, and alleviated class contradictions within developed capitalist countries as well as conflicts of interest among various capitalist countries. However, this capacity for adjustment and repair is not without its elastic limits; after all, it cannot shake the foundations of contemporary capitalist economic and political rule: social security and welfare policies “from cradle to grave” have not actually changed the nature of capital hiring labor; state intervention in the economy cannot overcome the inherent defects of the market economy; the “cycle law” [4]4 “Cycle law” (周期律): A reference to the historical pattern of dynastic rise and fall in Chinese history, often invoked in Marxist discourse to describe cyclical crises within capitalist systems. of uneven political, economic, and cultural development remains in effect, and the possibility of imperialist war cannot be ruled out. Moreover, this limited operation, which takes safeguarding monopoly capital interests as its starting point, inevitably further expands existing social inequalities and more comprehensively exposes the instability, unsustainability, parasitism, and decay of the capitalist system. In recent years, the persistently sluggish economic growth momentum common in capitalist countries, the successive waves of street politics, and the resurgence of violent terrorist activities represented by the “9/11” incident are the most powerful evidence. As long as there is even a glimmer of space for the socialization of capital, capitalism still has some room for delay and maneuver. Contemporary capitalism may undergo other new stages of development, and it can even be affirmed that in the new century of the 21st century, contemporary capitalism will still create incidents in order to prolong its life. As human society moves forward, the internal contradictions of capitalist society will inevitably become more prominent, and these contradictions cannot be eliminated within the scope of capitalist society. Today, humanity is still in the great historical era of the gradual transition from the capitalist social formation to the socialist formation. The historical destiny that capitalism will ultimately be replaced by socialism will not be reversed. Contemporary capitalism is accumulating a profound social material foundation for the eventual transition to socialism and communism.

当代资本主义的主动调节和自我改良确曾在某种程度上提高了资产阶级统治和剥削的能力与水平，减小了经济波动的震荡性和经济危机的破坏性，缓和了发达资本主义国家内部的阶级矛盾以及各资本主义国家之间的利益纷争。但是，这种调适修复能力并非毫无弹性限度，毕竟它无法撼动当代资本主义经济与政治统治的根基：“从摇篮到坟墓”的社会保障和福利政策实际上并未改变资本雇佣劳动的本质，国家对经济的干预无法克服市场经济的先天缺陷；政治经济文化发展不平衡的“周期律”依然起效，帝国主义战争的可能性无法排除。不仅如此，这种以维护垄断资本利益为出发点的有限操作，不可避免会进一步扩大社会既有的不平等，更加立体地暴露出资本主义制度的欠缺稳定性、难以持续性、寄生性和腐朽性。近年来，资本主义国家中司空见惯的持续低迷的经济增长势头、此起彼伏的街头政治风潮以及沉渣泛起的以“9·11”事件为代表的暴力恐怖活动即是最有力的佐证。只要资本社会化的空间一息尚存，资本主义就还有一定的拖延空间和转圜余地，当代资本主义可能还会经历其他新的发展阶段，甚至可以肯定的是，在21世纪的新百年里，当代资本主义还将为求续命而制造事端。伴随人类社会向前发展，资本主义社会的内在矛盾必将更加凸显，而这些矛盾无法在资本主义社会范围内消除。当今人类依然处于资本主义社会形态逐步向社会主义形态过渡的大的历史时代，资本主义最终将被社会主义所代替的历史命运不会逆转，当代资本主义正在为将要过渡到社会主义和共产主义积累着深厚的社会物质基础。

The Path of Replacement Is Long: Contemporary Capitalism Will Not Suddenly Decline and Perish in a Short Period of Time. Firm ideals and convictions need to be rooted in a scientific basis of understanding. What we firmly believe — that the demise of capitalism and the victory of socialism are inevitable — is a necessary trend that does not depend on human will and conforms to the laws of development of human social history. However, this necessary law also has preconditions: only when the relations of production, fundamentally characterized by private ownership, severely fetter and constrain modern large-scale social production, and the contradiction between productive forces and relations of production reaches an irreconcilable tipping point, will capitalism be declared dead and socialism ultimately triumph. Judging from a series of new changes in contemporary capitalism, the replacement of capitalism by socialism will still be a long historical process. Therefore, “decaying but not yet completely decayed capitalism, moribund but not yet dead capitalism” will not suddenly decline and perish in a short period of time. It is in this sense that we must, in accordance with Marxist dialectical materialism and historical materialism, use a developmental and changing perspective to unify the historical “inevitability” of capitalism’s demise with the “long-term nature” of the historical evolutionary process, unify the “decadence” of capitalism with the “possibility” of its continued development, and unify the “stage nature” of the historical development process with the “directedness” of the historical outcome. We must not be blindly optimistic and thus mistakenly underestimate the long-term, tortuous, and complex nature of this process.

代替路漫长：当代资本主义并不会在较短时间内突然衰落并灭亡。坚定的理想信念需要植根于科学的认识基础之上，我们所坚信的资本主义必然灭亡、社会主义必然胜利是不以人的意志为转移、符合人类社会历史发展规律的必然趋势，但是这一必然规律又是有先决条件的——只有资本主义以私人占有为根本特征的生产关系严重束缚制约着现代化的社会大生产，生产力与生产关系之间的矛盾达到不可调和的临界点，资本主义才会宣告灭亡，社会主义才会最终胜利。从当代资本主义的一系列新变化来看，社会主义代替资本主义还将是一个漫长的历史过程，因而“衰朽的但还没有完全衰朽的资本主义，是垂死的但还没有死亡的资本主义”并不会在较短时间内突然衰落并灭亡。正是从这个意义上说，我们要按照马克思主义唯物辩证法和历史唯物论，用发展变化的观点将资本主义走向灭亡的历史“必然性”与历史演进过程的“长期性”统一起来，将资本主义的“腐朽性”与它继续发展的“可能性”统一起来，将历史发展进程的“阶段性”与历史结局的“指向性”统一起来，不可盲目乐观进而错误低估这一过程的长期性、曲折性和复杂性。③

Since the end of the Second World War, the world has presented a stalemate in which two social systems, ideologies, and camp forces—capitalism and socialism—coexist in struggle over the long term, with each attacking and defending, ebbing and flowing. On the whole, the pattern of “capitalism being strong and socialism being weak” has not changed, yet the trend of “the West declining and the East rising” has become increasingly evident. The bourgeoisie of developed countries strives to maintain an irrational and unequal economic structure and political order centered on capitalism, with the vast number of developing countries and regions as the “periphery.” Leveraging advanced technological and military advantages, they plunder superprofits from all over the world, attempting to permanently fix these developing countries and regions as their sources of raw materials, cheap labor markets, and product dumping grounds. At the same time, due to differences in the level of economic development across societies, the capitalist camp is by no means a monolith; trade frictions and the smoke of “financial wars” can spread at any time. An even more severe practical paradox is this: as the process of globalization staggers forward, when the internal contradictions of capitalism develop to a certain extent, they erupt through economic crises and spill over into other fields, triggering intertwined overall and systemic crises of political, social, and cultural contradictions. Yet the state intervention measures adopted by contemporary capitalism to cope with economic crises often lay the groundwork for new economic crises, forming a vicious cycle that may worsen over time, with the most immediate victims being the ever-increasing number of impoverished people at the bottom. Contemporary capitalism is essentially a freakish entity where spirit and matter are at odds: economic development and technological leadership coexist with widespread unemployment and poverty. French scholar Michel Albert once sternly denounced this as a “binary opposition,” stating that “residents of different classes live on different planets that drift further apart each year.”[5]5 Michel Albert, *Capitalism vs. Capitalism: How America’s Obsession with Individual Achievement and Short-Term Profit Has Led It to the Brink of Collapse* (New York: Four Walls Eight Windows, 1993), p. 15. [Translator’s note: The original French work is *Capitalisme contre capitalisme* (1991); the English translation is cited here for reference.] This phenomenon worsened after the global pandemic of COVID-19. At the onset of the crisis, the insufficient net wealth of low-income families meant that a large proportion could not cope with the income shocks caused by the labor market weakness triggered by the COVID-19 crisis; nearly half of low-income earners lacked emergency savings, and their disposable liquid assets in the event of a short-term income interruption were insufficient to cover three weeks of household expenses.[6]6 See the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2020, May 2021. [Translator’s note: The specific data on emergency savings and liquid assets are drawn from this report.] The “curse” of economic crisis is a cyclical problem in the process of capitalist development and evolution. Once public discontent with economic crises and social issues intensifies, a few elite leaders in contemporary capitalist countries, in order to stand out and win votes, manipulate and exploit the appearance of populism to obscure the essence of incurable ills.

自第二次世界大战结束以来，世界呈现出资本主义与社会主义两种社会制度、意识形态、阵营力量在斗争中长期并存、互有攻守、此消彼长的胶着局面，整体上看“资强社弱”的形态仍未改变，不过“西降东升”的趋势已日趋明显。发达国家的资产阶级竭力维护以资本主义为“中心”、以广大发展中国家和地区为“外围”的不合理不平等的经济结构和政治秩序，利用先进的科技、军事优势，从世界各地大肆攫取超额财富，妄图长此以往将广大发展中国家和地区固化为它们的原料供应地、廉价劳动力市场和产品倾销市场。与此同时，源于各个经济社会的发达程度存在差异，资本主义阵营内部也绝非铁板一块，贸易摩擦、“金融战”的硝烟也随时有可能弥散开来。而更为严峻的一个现实悖论是：值此全球化进程蹒跚前行之际，当资本主义内在矛盾发展到一定程度，就会以经济危机为爆发点不断向其他领域外溢扩展，诱发政治危机、社会危机、文化危机等矛盾交织的整体性、系统性危机；但当代资本主义为应对经济危机而采取的国家干预措施，往往又为新的经济危机的到来埋下伏笔，构成恶性循环并可能每况愈下，首当其冲的是有增无减的底层贫困人口。当代资本主义俨然就是一个精神与物质悖逆的怪胎，经济上的发达、科技上的领先与相当普遍的失业、贫穷并存，法国学者米歇尔·阿尔贝尔曾经严厉斥之为“二元对立”，“不同阶层的居民就像生活在相互间逐年远离的不同星球上”。④这一现象在新型冠状病毒感染疫情全球大流行后更是雪上加霜，危机初起时，底层家庭净财富的不足致使很大一部分家庭无法应对新型冠状病毒感染疫情危机造成的劳动力市场疲软进而引起的收入冲击，几乎一半的低收入者缺乏应急储蓄，他们在短期收入中断的情况下可支配的流动资产不足以维持三周的家庭支出。⑤经济危机这个“魔咒”是资本主义发展、演变过程中的周期性问题，一旦民众面对经济危机和社会问题的不满情绪加剧时，当代资本主义国家的少数精英领袖还会为了搏出位拉选票，操控利用民粹主义的表象去掩盖顽疾无解的实质。

In addition to its habitual use of self-rescue methods that are “drinking poison to quench thirst,” contemporary capitalism also sanctimoniously deploys its “special skills” such as setting international rules and key agendas to shift crises, adeptly transforming domestic contradictions into conflicts between nations, between systems, and between civilizations. In many of the century-old challenges commonly faced by human society today, most major global problems caused by non-natural factors are intricately linked to the greedy and unrestrained expansion of capitalism. For example, since the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the United States, relying on its asymmetric power advantage, has engaged in widespread economic exploitation, military deterrence, political interference, “cultural infiltration,” and ideological subversion around the world. It has arbitrarily imposed economic sanctions or even military invasions on so-called “axis of evil” and “rogue states” labeled through its tinted glasses, directly or indirectly overthrowing the legitimate governments of other countries, and overtly or covertly creating regional tensions. We should maintain necessary vigilance in this regard.

当代资本主义除了惯用一些“饮鸩止渴”式自救手法之外，还经常道貌岸然地使出国际规则制定、关键议程设置等“看家本领”转嫁危机，擅将国内矛盾转化成国家与国家之间、制度与制度之间、文明与文明之间的冲突。在当今人类社会所共同面临的诸多世纪难题领域，大部分非自然因素引发的全球重大问题，多与资本主义贪婪无度扩张有着千丝万缕的内在关联。例如，自苏东剧变以来，美国依仗其不对称的实力优势，在世界范围内大肆进行经济盘剥、军事威慑、政治干涉、“文化渗透”、意识形态颠覆，对其透过有色眼镜乱贴标签的所谓“邪恶轴心”“流氓国家”动辄施以经济制裁甚至军事入侵，直接或间接推翻别国合法政府，明里或暗里制造地区局势紧张。对此我们理当保持必要的警惕。

(The author is a professor and doctoral supervisor at the School of International Relations, University of International Business and Economics, deputy director of the Institute of National Security and Governance, and a researcher at the National (Beijing) Institute of Opening-up Research, University of International Business and Economics.)

（作者为对外经济贸易大学国际关系学院教授、博导，国家安全与治理研究院副院长，对外经济贸易大学国家（北京）对外开放研究院研究员）

Online editor: Zhang Jian

网络编辑：张剑