The Drivers and Implications of the Rise of the “Global South”

In recent years, the concept of the “Global South” has been gaining momentum, becoming a hot topic in international public discourse. After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the vast majority of developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America refused to “take sides,” while Western countries launched a new round of diplomatic offensives to win over “Global South” nations. The European Union has made establishing a new partnership with the “Global South” a priority issue. The 59th Munich Security Conference held in February 2023 set up a special session on “North-South cooperation,” emphasizing the need to win over the “Global South.” Japan, as the rotating chair of the Group of Seven (G7), advocated that the G7 should strengthen its relations with the “Global South” and invited developing countries to attend the Hiroshima Summit in May 2023. At the same time, the willingness and voice of emerging market economies and developing countries to unite and strengthen themselves are growing louder. The BRICS summit held in South Africa in August 2023 took the “Global South agenda” as its theme to promote the expansion of the BRICS mechanism. The summit of the Group of 77 and China, which concluded in Cuba in September 2023, emphasized positioning itself as the “Global South” to promote changes in the global governance system. The “Global South” has attracted attention; the American magazine *Foreign Policy* regarded the rise of the “Global South” as one of the most significant trends in global politics in 2023. Currently, the concept of the “Global South” carries new connotations different from the past. Clarifying the drivers and implications of the rise of the “Global South” power is conducive to further enhancing the geopolitical cohesion and solidarity of the “Global South.”

近年来，“全球南方”（Global South）概念持续升温，成为国际舆论场域炙手可热的高频话题。乌克兰危机爆发后，由亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲绝大多数发展中国家组成的阵营都拒绝“选边站队”，而西方国家则掀起了新一轮争取“全球南方”国家的外交攻势。欧盟将与“全球南方”建立新的伙伴关系作为优先议题，2023年2月在慕尼黑举办的第59届安全会议设置“南北合作”专场议题，强调要争取“全球南方”。日本作为七国集团轮值主席国，主张七国集团应加强与“全球南方”的关系，并邀请发展中国家参加2023年5月举办的广岛峰会。与此同时，新兴市场国家和广大发展中国家联合自强的意愿和声量也愈来愈高。2023年8月在南非举办的金砖峰会以“全球南方议程”为主旨推动金砖机制扩容。2023年9月在古巴落幕的“77国集团和中国”峰会强调以“全球南方”为定位，推动全球治理体系变革。“全球南方”引人注目，美国《外交政策》杂志将“全球南方”崛起视为2023年全球政治最具意义的趋势之一。当前，“全球南方”概念呈现出不同以往的新意涵，厘清“全球南方”力量崛起的动因和影响，有利于进一步提升“全球南方”的地缘政治粘合力和凝聚力。

The Contemporary Connotations of the “Global South” Concept

“全球南方”概念的时代意涵

In terms of origin, the concept of the “Global South” can be traced back to 1969, when it was first used by the American left-wing political activist Carl Oglesby. Oglesby was an active scholar in the American anti-war movement. He believed that “the domination of the Global South by the Global North” had, after centuries, produced an “intolerable social order” and called for an early end to the Vietnam War.[1]1 Carl Oglesby (1935–2011) was a prominent figure in the U.S. anti-Vietnam War movement and president of the left-wing organization Students for a Democratic Society (SDS). In terms of ideological origins, the “Global South” has a distinct “non-Western” character. Previously, most Western scholars divided the world into three separate “worlds.” In 1952, the French scholar Alfred Sauvy defined the “Third World” as the vast number of developing countries that had recently gained independence or were still under the yoke of colonialism. In 1964, the British sociologist Peter Worsley further argued that the “Third World” constituted the main body of the Non-Aligned Movement and represented the resistance and counterattack of developing countries against the bipolar order. Although Worsley’s view of the “Third World” was positive, the term largely became a “synonym” for economically impoverished, underdeveloped, and politically unstable countries.

在缘起上，“全球南方”这一概念可以追溯到1969年，最早由美国左翼政治活动家卡尔·奥格尔斯比（Carl Oglesby）率先使用。奥格尔斯比是美国反战运动的活跃学者，他认为“北方对全球南方的统治”在延续了几个世纪之后，产生了一种“无法容忍的社会秩序”，呼吁早日结束越南战争。1在意识形态的源流上，“全球南方”具有鲜明的“非西方”色彩。此前，多数西方学者都把世界区分为互不隶属的“三个世界”，1952年法国学者阿尔弗雷德·索维（Alfred Sauvy）把“第三世界”定义为独立不久或仍处于殖民枷锁之下的广大发展中国家。1964年，英国社会学家彼得·沃斯利（Peter Worsley）进一步认为“第三世界”构成了“不结盟运动”的主体，是发展中国家对两极秩序的抵制和反击。尽管沃斯利对“第三世界”的看法是积极的，但这一词汇很大程度上成为经济贫困、发展落后和政治不稳定国家的“代名词”。

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the end of the “Second World” also led to a rapid decline in the frequency of use of the term “Third World.” At the same time, terms such as “developed,” “developing,” and “underdeveloped” have also been heavily criticized for regarding “Western countries” as “advanced countries” and the “Rest” as “backward countries,” because this classification implicitly supports the idea of a linear path of development. Unlike the meaning of the expression “Third World,” the term “Global South” avoids the above pitfalls. In 1980, the report *North-South: A Program for Survival* published by the German Brandt Commission again used the concept of “North-South,” advocating that “Northern countries” should inject large amounts of capital into “Southern countries” to help the latter achieve modernization. In 1990, the United Nations released *The Challenge of the South: The Report of the South Commission*, aimed at helping “Southern countries” autonomously realize their own development aspirations. From then on, the concept of the “South” began to gain popularity. As the term “globalization” began to become the mainstream international narrative, the prefix “global” was added to the word “South,” and the “Global South” was endowed with new connotations. In 2003, the United Nations Development Programme promoted the “Forging a Global South” project, incorporating South-South cooperation into its policy priority agenda, aiming to enhance the voice of Southern countries.

苏联解体之后，“第二世界”的终结也导致“第三世界”这一术语的使用频率迅速下降。与此同时，“发达”“发展中”和“不发达”等词汇也因将“西方国家”视为“先进国家”、将“其余国家”（Rest）视为“落后国家”而饱受批评，因为这种划分含蓄地支持线性发展道路的想法。与“第三世界”表述的含义不同，“全球南方”这一术语避免了上述陷阱。1980年，德国勃兰特委员会发布的《南北：生存计划》报告再次使用“南北”概念，主张“北方国家”应向“南方国家”注入大量资本，以帮助后者实现现代化。1990年，联合国发布《南方的挑战：南方委员会的报告》，旨在帮助“南方国家”自主地实现发展本国的发展抱负。自此，“南方”概念开始流行。随着“全球化”这一术语开始成为国际主流叙事，于是“南方”一词添加上了“全球”这一前缀，“全球南方”被赋予新的意涵。2003年，联合国开发计划署推动“打造全球南方”项目，将南南合作纳入政策优先议程，意在提升南方国家的话语权。

The “Global South” has three layers of connotation: geographical location, economic development, and geopolitical unity for self-strengthening. First is the “North-South divide” in the geographical dimension. Since the vast majority of developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are located south of 30 degrees north latitude, the “Brandt Report” of the 1980s designated the 30th parallel north as the geographical dividing line between the “Southern world” and the “Northern world,” regardless of whether a country is located in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere. Based on this, the 30th parallel north crosses North America, Central America, northern Africa, and India before shifting southward, but lists Australia and New Zealand separately as part of the “Northern world.” Second is the “North-South gap” in development differences in the economic dimension. From the perspective of economic and social development indicators, the “Global South” refers to economically and socially underdeveloped countries. According to the United Nations classification standards for 2023, among the 193 UN member states, 36 countries are currently identified as “developed countries,” all located in Europe, North America, and the developed coastal regions of the Asia-Pacific; the remaining countries are all identified as “developing countries,” “countries in transition,” or “emerging market economies,” all located in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean.[2]2 The United Nations classification of developed and developing countries is used for statistical convenience and does not imply a fixed hierarchy; it is periodically updated. Finally, there is the connotation of unity for self-strengthening in the geopolitical dimension. Developing countries share similar historical experiences and common development tasks. As a political “symbol of resistance,” the “Global South” represents the “resistance sentiment” of “Southern countries” against the international order dominated by “Northern countries” and against neoliberal capitalism. To consolidate the strength of the “Global South” and effectively advance the process of South-South cooperation, emerging powers and developing countries have created multilateral mechanisms such as the BRICS mechanism, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Group of 77, promoting the development of the global governance system in a more just and reasonable direction.

“全球南方”具有三层意涵，分别是地理上的区位意涵、经济上的发展意涵以及地缘政治上的联合自强意涵。首先是在地理维度上的“南北分歧”。由于绝大多数亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的发展中国家都位于北纬30度以南，20世纪80年代的“勃兰特报告”便将北纬30度线拟定为划分“南方世界”与“北方世界”的地理区分线，而不论一国是否位于北半球或南半球。基于此，北纬30度线穿越北美洲、中美洲、非洲北部和印度之后下移，但把澳大利亚和新西兰单列为“北方世界”。其次是经济维度上的“南北鸿沟”发展差异。在经济和社会发展指标视角之下，“全球南方”指经济和社会欠发达国家。根据联合国2023年的划分标准，在联合国的193个成员国中，目前有36个国家被认定为“发达国家”，全部位于欧洲、北美和亚太沿海发达区域；其余的国家皆被认定为“发展中国家”“转型国家”或“新兴经济体国家”，全部位于亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲及加勒比地区。2最后是地缘政治维度上的联合自强意涵。广大发展中国家具有相似的历史遭遇、共同的发展任务，“全球南方”作为一种政治“抵抗符号”，代表着“南方国家”反对“北方国家”主导的国际秩序，反对新自由主义资本主义的“抵抗情绪”。为了凝聚“全球南方”力量，切实推进南南合作进程，新兴大国和发展中国家创建了金砖国家机制、上海合作组织、77国集团等多边机制，推动全球治理体系朝着更加公正合理的方向发展。

After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the stringent sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia led to global economic turmoil and increased uncertainty, but they also triggered a new cycle of economic globalization and a new economic paradigm, exerting a significant impact on the transformation of the global political and economic landscape. On the one hand, Western countries attempted to draw emerging economies and developing countries into the camp imposing sanctions on Russia. However, “Global South” countries adhered to an independent foreign policy, refused to act as pawns in geopolitical games, and avoided falling into the Western binary narrative of so-called “democracy versus authoritarianism.” On the other hand, a new paradigm of economic globalization, led by the BRICS mechanism, is accelerating. BRICS countries are beginning to formulate new cooperation guidelines to address a series of challenges such as international sanctions, climate change, macroeconomic shocks, and financial turmoil. The expansion of BRICS has further enhanced the influence of the “Global South” in the global geopolitical landscape, accelerating the construction of a new architecture for economic globalization and a new pattern of global governance. The “Global South” is becoming a development community of mutual recognition and similar circumstances, with distinct commonalities of being non-Western, anti-hegemonic, seeking development, and pursuing justice.

乌克兰危机爆发后，西方国家对俄罗斯的严苛制裁导致全球经济震荡且不确定性增加，但同时也引发了一个新的经济全球化周期和新的经济范式，对全球政治经济格局的变迁产生重要影响。一方面，西方国家试图拉拢新兴经济体和发展中国家加入对俄制裁的阵营，然而“全球南方”国家坚持独立自主的外交政策，拒绝充当地缘政治博弈的棋子，避免陷入西方所谓的“民主与威权”的二元对立叙事。另一方面，以金砖国家机制为引领的经济全球化新范式正在加速推进，金砖国家着手制定新的合作方针，以应对国际制裁、气候变化、宏观经济冲击以及金融动荡等一系列挑战。金砖国家扩容进一步提升了“全球南方”在全球地缘政治格局中的影响力，加快推进经济全球化新架构和全球治理新格局的构建。“全球南方”正在成为一个彼此认可、处境相似的发展共同体，具有鲜明的非西方、反霸权、谋发展、求正义的共性。

Multiple Drivers of the Rise of the “Global South”

“全球南方”崛起的多重动因

Against the backdrop of the accelerated evolution of changes unseen in a century, the emergence of the “Global South” fervor represents the overall awakening of developing countries amidst the transformation of world politics. The rise of the “Global South” is not an accidental phenomenon but the inevitable result of the collective rise of developing countries. The “great transformation” of the 21st century can be summarized as the decline of Western hegemony and the rise of the “Global South.” With the enhancement of economic strength, changes in demographic structure, the development of a multipolar world, and the rise of non-Western-led international organizations, the rise of the “Global South” has multiple drivers.

在世界百年未有之大变局加速演进的背景下，“全球南方”热潮的涌现是广大发展中国家在世界政治变迁中的整体性觉醒。“全球南方”的崛起不是一种偶然现象，而是发展中国家群体性崛起的必然结果。21世纪的“大变局”可以概括为西方霸权的式微与“全球南方”的崛起。随着经济实力的提升、人口结构的变化、世界多极化的发展和非西方主导的国际组织的兴起，“全球南方”的崛起有多重动因。

First, the growth of economic strength is the direct driver of the rise of the “Global South.” Since the Industrial Revolution, Western countries, leveraging the power of technological revolution and following the logic of capital, have shaped the world economic system, thereby forming an exploitative relationship between developed and underdeveloped, West and East. Argentine economist Raúl Prebisch proposed the “center-periphery” dependency theory in 1950, arguing that the world system consists of two parts: the “center” and the “periphery.” The part penetrated by capitalist production technology is the “center,” while the part lagging behind in production, technology, and organization is the “periphery.” Thus, uneven development within the world system becomes a historical inevitability, and this inherent imbalance intensifies as the “center” and “periphery” expand. However, after the end of the Cold War, the global pattern of industrial division of labor underwent major changes. The complete value chain network of products was broken into multiple segments, dispersed across different countries for research and development, design, production, assembly, and sales. This provided a historic opportunity for developing countries to embed themselves in the global value chain. Although the technology-intensive and capital-intensive links of R&D and design within the global value chain remain primarily in developed countries, the labor-intensive and resource-intensive links of processing, production, and assembly began to spread to developing countries. Transnational corporations, through the new form of international trade known as “intra-product trade between North and South,” achieved the organic connection and value addition of upstream, midstream, and downstream product links. A broad range of developing countries participated in and embedded themselves in the restructuring of the global value chain through vertical division of labor, undertaking capital-intensive and labor-intensive industries transferred from developed countries, thereby powerfully advancing their industrialization processes. The pursuit of excess profits by developed countries ultimately led to “industrial hollowing out” and “economic virtualization.”

首先，经济实力的增长是“全球南方”崛起的直接动因。自工业革命以来，西方国家借助科技革命的力量，根据资本的逻辑塑造世界经济体系，并由此形成了发达对不发达、西方对东方的剥削关系。阿根廷经济学家劳尔·普雷维什（Raul Prebisch）于1950年提出“中心—外围”依附理论，认为世界体系由“中心”和“外围”两部分组成，即被资本主义生产技术渗透的部分是“中心”，在生产、技术和组织方面处于落后地位的部分则是“外围”。由此，世界体系中的发展不平衡成为一种历史必然，而这种固有的不平衡随着“中心”和“外围”的扩大而加剧。然而，冷战结束后，全球范围的产业分工模式发生重大变化，完整的产品价值链网络被拆分成多个环节，分散于不同的国家进行研发、设计、生产、组装和销售，这为发展中国家嵌入全球价值链提供了历史性机遇。虽然全球价值链中的技术密集型和资本密集型研发和设计等环节仍主要在发达国家进行，但属于劳动密集型和资源密集型的加工、生产和组装等环节开始向发展中国家扩散，而跨国公司则以“南北间产品内贸易”这一新型国际贸易方式，实现了上中下游产品环节的有机衔接和价值附加。广大发展中国家以垂直化分工参与和嵌入到全球价值链重构之中，承接了由发达国家转移出来的资本密集型和劳动密集型产业，有力地推动了工业化进程。发达国家对获取超额利益的追逐，最终导致“产业空心化”和“经济虚拟化”。

Entering the 21st century, on the one hand, the deepening evolution of technological innovation and the industrial revolution drove a continuous decline in the costs of information, communication, and transportation. On the other hand, the overall easing of the international landscape reduced many barriers restricting trade liberalization and investment facilitation. This provided new driving forces for the extension of the global value chain based on the deepening of the industrial division of labor and cost differentials. Emerging market countries rose abruptly, with rapid industrial structure upgrades, strong and robust economic development, and surging trade scale. A 2017 research report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, *The World in 2050*, argued that based on GDP measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), in 2015 the emerging seven (E7) countries—represented by China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Turkey—surpassed the G7 for the first time, and by 2040 the economic scale of the former would be twice that of the latter. By 2050, six of the world’s seven largest economies will be current emerging countries. It is evident that the center of gravity of the world economy is shifting from the Atlantic region to the Pacific region, and the sustained growth in the strength of developing countries will bring about a restructuring of North-South economic relations.

进入21世纪后，一方面科技创新和产业革命的纵深演进推动信息、通讯和交通成本持续下降，另一方面国际格局的总体缓和削减了制约贸易自由化和投资便利化的诸多壁垒，这为基于产业分工深化和成本级差的全球价值链延伸提供了新驱动力。新兴市场国家异军突起，产业结构快速升级，经济发展强劲有力，贸易规模迅猛增长。普华永道在2017年发布的《2050年的世界》研究报告认为，基于购买力平价（PPP）测算的GDP，在2015年以中国、印度、印度尼西亚、巴西、俄罗斯、墨西哥和土耳其为代表的新兴七国（E7）首次超过七国集团,而到2040年前者的经济规模将是后者的两倍。到2050年，世界前七大经济体中将有六个是现在的新兴国家。可见，世界经济的重心正在从大西洋区域向太平洋区域转移，发展中国家实力的持续增长将带来南北经济关系的重构。

Second, the enhancement of political influence is the deeper cause of the rise of the “Global South.” After World War II, under a hegemonic order, the “Global South” found itself on the periphery of the international political landscape due to numerous challenges. On the one hand, the long-term exploitation and oppression of developing countries by historical colonialism and imperialism led to resource plunder and economic inequality. On the other hand, the unfair and imbalanced global economic system also placed Southern countries at a disadvantage in international trade, squeezed by protectionist policies and unjust trade rules. To address these challenges, a broad range of developing countries actively enhanced their voice and influence through two pathways: South-South cooperation and regional and cross-regional integration. The first pathway is South-South cooperation, which originated from the 1955 Bandung Conference [3]3 The Bandung Conference, held in Bandung, Indonesia, in 1955, was a landmark meeting of Asian and African states, many of which were newly independent, that promoted anti-colonial solidarity and the principles of non-alignment.. This refers to cooperation among developing countries in economic, social, cultural, environmental, and technological fields, achieving economic and social development goals through joint efforts to share knowledge, skills, and resources. South-South cooperation is a product of the consciousness and self-awakening of developing countries, guided by the “Bandung Spirit,” and has traversed an extraordinary course of over 60 years. The implementation of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” in 2013, aimed at prioritizing the economic and social development needs of “Southern countries” by strengthening connectivity, has been recognized by the United Nations as an important component of “21st-century South-South cooperation.”

其次，政治影响力的提升是“全球南方”崛起的深层原因。二战后，在霸权秩序之下，“全球南方”由于面临诸多挑战而处于国际政治格局的边缘。一方面，历史上的殖民主义和帝国主义对发展中国家的长期剥削和压迫，导致了资源掠夺和经济不平等；另一方面，全球经济体系的不公平和不平衡也导致南方国家在国际贸易中处于不利地位，受到保护主义政策和不公正的贸易规则的挤压。为应对这些挑战，广大发展中国家积极通过南南合作和区域及跨区域整合两种路径来增强自身的话语权和影响力。第一个路径是发轫于1955年万隆会议的南南合作，即发展中国家之间在经济、社会、文化、环境和技术等领域展开的合作，通过共同努力共享知识、技能和资源，实现经济社会发展目标。南南合作是发展中国家自觉和自醒的产物，以“万隆精神”为引领，至今已走过60多年的不平凡历程。2013年中国“一带一路”倡议的实施，旨在通过加强互联互通优先满足“南方国家”的经济社会发展需求，已被联合国认可为“21世纪南南合作”的重要组成部分。

Another pathway is promoting the joint self-strengthening of developing countries through regional integration and cross-regional integration. In Asia, many regional initiatives are continuously advancing, such as multilateral cooperation under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the ASEAN Plus Three cooperation mechanism (China, Japan, and South Korea), and the East Asia Summit cooperation mechanism. In Africa, on the one hand, regional economic integration processes such as the East African Community, the Economic Community of West African States, and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa have made substantial progress. On the other hand, driven by the African Union, significant progress has also been made in multiple areas, including the free movement of people within the African continent, the reduction of tariff barriers, infrastructure construction, and the building of transport corridors. In Latin America, alongside the vigorous development of the Southern Common Market, the Caribbean Community, and the Central American Community, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, composed of 33 countries, has become an indispensable force in promoting South-South cooperation. Furthermore, at the global level, China has established “1+N” South-South multilateral cooperation platforms, such as the China-ASEAN cooperation mechanism, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the China-CELAC Forum mechanism, and the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum mechanism, achieving full coverage of developing country regions. It is evident that the enhanced strategic autonomy and capacity of developing countries have increased their influence and shaping power within the international political landscape.

另一个路径是通过区域一体化及跨区域整合来推动发展中国家的联合自强。在亚洲，许多区域性倡议已在持续推进，例如上海合作组织框架下的多边合作、东盟与中日韩合作机制、东亚峰会合作机制等。在非洲，一方面，东非共同体、西非共同体和东部与南部非洲共同市场等区域经济一体化进程已取得实质性进展；另一方面，在非洲联盟的推动下，非洲大陆区域内的人员自由流动、关税壁垒削减、基础设施建设和运输走廊构建等多个领域也已取得重要进展。在拉美，南方共同市场、加勒比共同体、中美洲共同体等蓬勃发展的同时，由33个国家组成的拉美和加勒比共同体已成为推动南南合作不可或缺的力量。此外，在全球层面，中国已建立了中国东盟合作机制、中非合作论坛、中拉论坛机制和中阿论坛机制等“1+N”南南多边合作平台，实现了对发展中国家区域的全覆盖。可见，发展中国家战略自主意愿和能力的增强，提升了其在国际政治格局中的影响力和塑造力。

Finally, the transformation of the global governance system is the fundamental cause of the rise of the “Global South.” Currently, the global governance system dominated by Western developed countries suffers from numerous rule injustices and institutional deficiencies. The status, rights, and voice of the vast majority of developing countries, which account for over 80% of the world’s population, have not been fully reflected or respected. First, major Western powers hold significant sway in institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, leading some countries to use these institutions to force developing countries into compromises and concessions detrimental to their own interests. Second, a few major Western powers deliberately ignore or bypass international organizations represented by the United Nations, abusing their hegemony to impose economic sanctions, political pressure, and military attacks on other countries, exacerbating global division and confrontation. Third, the current global governance system is more conducive to monopoly capital’s global allocation and acquisition of excess profits, widening wealth and income inequality worldwide. Finally, the current global governance system is unable to effectively address global issues such as climate finance, food security, debt relief, health problems, and refugee crises, with the social, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities faced by developing countries being particularly acute. In fact, some Western countries not only fail to assume corresponding responsibilities but also attribute the root causes of these problems to developing countries.

最后，全球治理体系的变革是“全球南方”崛起的根本原因。当前，由西方发达国家主导的全球治理体系存在诸多规则不公和制度缺陷，占世界总人口八成以上的广大发展中国家的地位、权益和话语权未被充分体现和尊重。首先，西方大国在国际货币基金组织、世界银行等机构中拥有较大话语权，致使某些国家利用这些机构迫使发展中国家作出不利于自身利益的妥协和退让。其次，少数西方大国蓄意无视或绕开以联合国为代表的国际组织，滥用霸权对他国进行经济制裁、政治施压和武力攻击等，加剧了全球的分裂与对立。再次，当前全球治理体系更有利于垄断资本在全球配置并获得超额利润，财富和收入不平等在全球范围拉大。最后，当前的全球治理体系无法有效应对气候融资、粮食安全、债务减免、健康问题、难民危机等全球性问题，发展中国家面临的社会、经济和环境脆弱性挑战尤为突出。事实上，一些西方国家不仅不会承担相应的责任，反而将问题的根源归咎于发展中国家。

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rift between the West and the “Global South” has been widening. The alienation of many developing countries from the West did not begin with the Ukraine crisis; rather, it can be traced back to the West’s disregard for the plight faced by developing countries in their struggle against the pandemic. When the vast number of developing countries, lacking vaccines, urgently needed assistance from developed countries, “Western countries closed their doors and looked only after themselves,” ignoring the basic human rights of the people in developing countries, such as the right to life and the right to health. In response, Ghanaian President Akufo Addo criticized: “Africa is a forgotten continent; we can only save ourselves.”[4]4 This quote is from a speech by Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo during the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting African frustration with the lack of international solidarity. On the issue of addressing climate change, the United States, the European Union, and other developed countries jointly pledged in 2009 to provide $100 billion annually in climate finance to low-income countries by 2020, for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. However, Western countries did not fulfill their commitment; the amount of finance paid in 2020 barely reached $83 billion,[5]5 The $100 billion annual climate finance pledge was made by developed countries at the 2009 UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, with a target date of 2020. violating their promise to bear responsibility based on their historical emissions. The history of colonial plunder suffered by developing countries at the hands of the West, along with decades of accumulated disappointment and resentment toward the West, serves as the “adhesive” driving “Global South” countries to improve and reform the existing global governance system.

自新冠疫情暴发以来，西方与“全球南方”之间的裂痕正在扩大。许多发展中国家对西方的疏远并非始于乌克兰危机；相反，这可以追溯到西方无视发展中国家与新冠疫情作斗争时面临的困境。当广大发展中国家由于缺少疫苗而急需来自发达国家的援助时，“西方国家却关起门来只顾自己”，无视发展中国家民众的生存权和健康权等基本人权。对此，加纳总统阿库福·阿多（Akufo Addo）批评说：“非洲是一个被遗忘的大洲，我们只能自救。”3在应对气候变化问题上，美国、欧盟和其他发达国家一起，于2009年承诺到2020年每年向低收入国家提供1000亿美元的气候融资，用于气候缓解和适应措施。然而，西方国家并没有兑现自身的承诺，2020年支付的融资额度刚刚达到830亿美元，4这违背了他们根据其历史排放量承担责任的承诺。发展中国家遭遇西方殖民掠夺的历史和数十年来堆积起来的对西方的失望和怨恨，是驱动“全球南方”国家对现行的全球治理体系进行完善和变革的“粘合剂”。

The Global Impact of the Rise of the “Global South”

“全球南方”崛起的世界影响

Although the “Global South” is not a homogeneous entity, with its growing population and economy and its rising political influence, it is becoming a key force reshaping the world order and transforming the global governance system. The rise of the “Global South” is an irreversible historical trend, signaling that the center of global geo-economics and geopolitics is shifting from the “Global North” to the “Global South,” and this transformation process will redefine the future direction of the world order. With the continuous advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative, building consensus on development, creating development opportunities, and sharing development achievements will become the main thread driving the in-depth development of South-South cooperation. At the same time, some Western countries, driven by the need to maintain a hegemonic order, will increasingly intensify their efforts to divide and compete for influence among “Global South” countries.

虽然“全球南方”并非一个同质化的实体，但随着人口和经济的增长以及政治影响力的提升，它正在成为一股重塑世界秩序和变革全球治理体系的关键力量。“全球南方”的崛起是一种不可逆转的历史趋势，预示着全球地缘经济和地缘政治的重心正在从“全球北方”转向“全球南方”，而这个转变过程将重新定义世界秩序的未来走向。随着“一带一路”倡议的持续推进，凝聚发展共识、创造发展机遇、共享发展成果将成为推动南南合作深入开展的主线。与此同时，一些西方国家出于维护霸权秩序的需要，对“全球南方”国家的分化和争夺也将日趋激烈。

First, the international order and global governance system are undergoing accelerated restructuring. The Western so-called “rules-based international order” is essentially an attempt to maintain a Western-dominated hegemonic international order, seeking to confine the “Global South” to the periphery of the world system and the bottom of the global value chain. The rise of the “Global South” brings significant changes to the international power structure, and dissatisfaction with the Western-dominated international order will drive deep adjustments and transformations in the global governance system. To begin with, in the political and security domains, the “Global South” will commit to the peaceful resolution of international disputes, promoting the development of a “cooperative multipolar” order rather than a “coercive unipolar” order. In the Ukraine crisis, according to analysis by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), although 52 countries (the West and its allies), representing 15% of the global population, imposed sanctions on Russia, 127 countries remained neutral. The “Global South’s” distance from the West on major issues forces the United States and the West to take the positions and propositions of the “Global South” seriously. Next, in the economic and financial domains, the BRICS countries are actively promoting the “de-dollarization” transformation of the financial governance system, challenging neoliberal globalization. Measured by purchasing power parity, the share of the five BRICS countries in global GDP reached 31.5% in 2022, surpassing the G7’s 30.7%. It is projected that by 2030, the BRICS countries will contribute over 50% of global GDP, and the expanded BRICS will further increase this share. Since its establishment in 2009, the BRICS cooperation mechanism has consistently pushed for reforms of multiple global institutions, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, striving to enhance their own equity and representation. Since its establishment in 2015, the New Development Bank of the BRICS countries has provided $33 billion in loans to improve infrastructure connectivity in developing countries. Finally, in the field of climate change, the “Global South” jointly promotes larger and more inclusive climate finance and climate action. At the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) held in November 2022, under the collective insistence and joint promotion of developing countries, developed countries committed to increasing support for developing countries in terms of funding, technology, and capacity building, and ultimately established a “loss and damage fund” to protect vulnerable countries. This historic breakthrough has the potential to change the tone and process of global climate negotiations.

第一，国际秩序和全球治理体系加速重构。西方所谓“基于规则的国际秩序”本质上是在维系西方主导的霸权国际秩序，企图将“全球南方”控制在世界体系的边缘和全球价值链的底端。“全球南方”的崛起带来国际权力结构的重大变化，对西方主导国际秩序的不满将推动全球治理体系的深度调整和变革。首先，在政治和安全领域，“全球南方”将致力于和平解决国际争端，推动“合作式多极”秩序而非“胁迫性单极”秩序的发展。在乌克兰危机中，据经济学人智库（EIU）的分析，尽管占全球人口15%的52个国家（西方及其盟友）对俄罗斯实施制裁措施，但仍有127个国家保持中立。“全球南方”在重大问题上与西方保持距离，让美西方不得不重视“全球南方”的立场和主张。其次，在经济和金融领域，金砖国家积极推动金融治理体系的“去美元化”变革，挑战新自由主义的全球化。按照购买力平价测算，2022年金砖五国占全球GDP的比重达到31.5%，超过了七国集团的30.7%。预计到2030年，金砖国家将贡献全球GDP的50%以上，而扩容后的金砖国家将进一步提升这一比重。金砖国家合作机制自2009年成立以来，一直坚持推动包括世界银行和国际货币基金组织在内的多个全球机构的改革，致力于提升自身的股权和代表性。金砖国家新开发银行自2015年成立以来，已提供了330亿美元的贷款，用于改善发展中国家的基础设施互联互通。最后，在气候变化领域，“全球南方”共同推动更大、更具包容性的气候融资与气候行动。在2022年11月举行的第27届联合国气候变化大会（COP27）上，在发展中国家的集体坚持和共同推动下，发达国家承诺增加对发展中国家在资金、技术和能力建设上的支持，并最终设立保护脆弱国家“损失和损害基金”，这一历史性突破将有可能改变全球气候谈判的基调和进程。

Second, the Belt and Road Initiative creates new opportunities for the accelerated development of South-South cooperation. Developing countries have always been the foundation of China’s diplomacy, and South-South cooperation is an important component of China’s all-round opening up. The Belt and Road Initiative is inseparable from South-South cooperation; South-South cooperation is the foundation for the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, while the Belt and Road Initiative in turn endows South-South cooperation with new development opportunities. Development is the “key” to solving all human problems, and relatively backward infrastructure and financing gaps are among the main bottlenecks hindering the economic development of “Global South” countries, resulting in their foreign trade being below potential by 30% and foreign direct investment below potential by 70%. For years, as the scale of infrastructure investment led by the G7 has been declining, the infrastructure needs of Belt and Road partner countries face a huge funding gap. According to estimates by the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), by 2030, the total global demand for infrastructure investment will reach $253 billion, while the projected total supply of funds is only $183 billion.[6]6 This estimate from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) refers to the annual infrastructure investment gap in developing countries. The Belt and Road Initiative focuses on the thorny issue of infrastructure connectivity. Over the past decade, it has mobilized nearly one trillion dollars in investment, implemented approximately 3,000 infrastructure projects, created 420,000 jobs for partner countries, helped 40 million people escape poverty, and driven overall regional economic development. The Global Development Initiative is another important public good and cooperation platform proposed by China to the international community in September 2021. This initiative defines poverty reduction, food security, health, climate change, and green development as priority agendas, aiming to implement the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Standing at a new historical starting point, the Global Development Initiative will generate synergistic effects with the Belt and Road Initiative, jointly injecting new development momentum into South-South cooperation.

第二，“一带一路”倡议为南南合作加速发展创造新机遇。一直以来，发展中国家始终是中国外交的基础，南南合作也是中国全方位对外开放的重要组成部分。“一带一路”倡议与南南合作密不可分，南南合作是“一带一路”倡议实施的基础，而“一带一路”倡议又赋予南南合作新的发展机遇。发展是解决人类一切问题的“关键钥匙”，而基础设施较为落后和融资缺口是阻碍“全球南方”国家经济发展的主要瓶颈之一，致使其对外贸易低于潜力的30%，外国直接投资低于潜力的70%。多年来，由于西方七国集团主导的基础设施投资规模一直处于下降态势，“一带一路”共建国家的基建需求面临巨大的资金缺口。据美国智库战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）测算，到2030年，全球基础设施的投资需求总额将达到2530亿美元，而预计资金供给总额仅为1830亿美元。5“一带一路”倡议聚焦基础设施互联互通这一棘手问题，在过去十年中拉动近万亿美元投资，实施了约3000个基建项目，为共建国家创造42万个工作岗位，帮助4000万人摆脱贫困，带动了区域整体经济发展。全球发展倡议是中国于2021年9月向国际社会提出的另一个重要公共产品与合作平台，该倡议将减贫、粮食安全、卫生健康、气候变化和绿色发展定义为优先议程，旨在落实联合国2030年可持续发展议程。站在新的历史起点上，全球发展倡议将与“一带一路”倡议产生协同效应，一起为南南合作注入新的发展动力。

Third, the competition and fragmentation of the “Global South” by external major powers have intensified. As the influence of the “Global South” in the world pattern rises day by day, Western major powers have realized that if they cannot win the support of more Southern countries, it will be difficult to maintain a hegemonic international order. Therefore, the United States and the West, on the one hand, deliberately manipulate and distort the concept and narrative of the “Global South,” and on the other hand, attempt to win over and split the “Global South” camp, even trying to prop up certain countries to play the role of leader of the “Global South,” so as to achieve dominance and control over “Global South” affairs. Some American scholars have divided the world after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis into three camps: the “Global West,” which shares common values, interests, and traditions; the “Global East,” represented by China and Russia; and the “Global South,” which lies between the two. This “tripartite division of the world” view treats the “Global South” as a wavering camp that does not align with either East or West, and the competition between East and West for the “Global South” has driven the sharp rise in the influence of the “Global South.” Europe and Japan also hold positions similar to those of the United States. The Munich Security Conference held in February 2023 and the G7 Hiroshima Summit held in May 2023 both paid close attention to the “Global South” issue, but neither invited China to participate when inviting representatives of developing countries. Japan, in its 2023 “Diplomatic Bluebook,” introduced the “Global South” for the first time and shifted its self-positioning from a “bridge between the West and Asia” to a “link connecting the West and the ‘Global South.’” In June 2023, the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed the “Ending China’s Developing Country Status Act,” aiming to split the camp of developing countries and force China to bear international responsibilities beyond its capacity. At the same time, at the G20 New Delhi Summit held in August 2023, the United States deliberately elevated India’s leadership position in the “Global South,” attempting to create a so-called “China-India leadership struggle.” In response to the division and co-optation by the United States and the West, the “Havana Declaration” adopted at the “Group of 77 and China” Summit in September 2023 incorporated multiple Chinese concepts and propositions, clearly releasing a strong signal of the “Global South’s” united self-strengthening.

第三，外部大国对“全球南方”的争夺和分化加剧。随着“全球南方”在世界格局中的影响力日趋上升，西方大国意识到，如果无法赢得更多南方国家的支持，就难以维系霸权国际秩序。因此，美西方一方面刻意操纵和歪曲“全球南方”概念和叙事，另一方面妄图拉拢和分化“全球南方”阵营，甚至试图通过扶植某些国家扮演“全球南方”领导者的角色，以实现对“全球南方”事务的主导和控制。有美国学者将乌克兰危机爆发之后的世界划分为三个阵营，分别为有着共同价值观、利益和传统的“全球西方”、以中国和俄罗斯为代表的“全球东方”，以及处于两者之间的“全球南方”。这种“世界三分法”的观点，将“全球南方”视为一个摇摆不定的、不与东西方结盟的阵营，而东西方对“全球南方”的争夺推动“全球南方”的影响力急剧上升。欧洲和日本也秉持跟美国相似的立场，2023年2月举行的慕尼黑安全会议和5月举行的七国集团广岛峰会均对“全球南方”议题给予高度关注，但在邀请发展中国家代表参会时却均未邀请中国参会。日本在2023年发布的《外交蓝皮书》中首次引入了“全球南方”，并将自身定位从“沟通西方与亚洲的桥梁”转变为“连接西方与‘全球南方’的纽带”。2023年6月美国参议院外交委员会通过“终止中国发展中国家地位法案”，意在分裂发展中国家阵营，并迫使中国承担超出其能力范围的国际责任。与此同时，在2023年8月召开的二十国集团新德里峰会上，美国刻意拔高印度在“全球南方”中的领导地位，企图制造所谓的“中印领导权之争”。针对美西方的分化和拉拢，2023年9月“77国集团和中国”峰会通过的《哈瓦那宣言》纳入了多项中国理念和主张，明确释放出“全球南方”联合自强的有力信号。

The rise of the “Global South” is no longer a geopolitical imagination and an aspiration for order transformation, but an irresistible objective reality and an ever-evolving historical trend. The rise of the “Global South” concept has circumvented and broken the “binary opposition” narrative logic historically based on “center and periphery,” “East and West,” and “First World and Third World,” which is conducive to consolidating the collective strength of emerging economies and the vast number of developing countries, and building a peaceful, secure, and stable world pattern. The “Global South” is not an international organization or political entity, but a development community with diverse values, varying economic scales, and diverse cultural traditions. Out of the need to maintain hegemony, the United States and the West will not give up competing for, co-opting, and splitting the “Global South” countries. In response, the “Global South” countries should use the “Bandung Spirit”[n] of unity, friendship, and cooperation to build consensus, and become a mainstay in promoting development cooperation and upholding fairness and justice in the historical process of deepening South-South cooperation.

“全球南方”的崛起不再是一种地缘政治想象和秩序变革抱负，而是一种不可阻挡的客观现实和不断演进的历史潮流。“全球南方”概念的兴起规避和打破了历史上基于“中心与外围”“东方与西方”和“第一世界与第三世界”的“二元对立”叙事逻辑，有利于凝聚新兴经济体和广大发展中国家的群体性力量，构建和平、安全与稳定的世界格局。“全球南方”并不是一个国际组织或政治实体，而是一个价值观念多元、经济规模不一、文化传统多样的发展共同体。出于霸权护持的需要，美西方不会放弃对“全球南方”国家的争夺、拉拢与分化。对此，“全球南方”国家应以团结、友谊、合作的“万隆精神”凝聚共识，在南南合作深入演进的历史进程中，成为推动发展合作、维护公平正义的中流砥柱。

Online editor: Zhang Jian

网络编辑：张剑