World Socialism amid Major Changes in the International Economic and Political Landscape

At present, the world is undergoing changes unseen in a century that are accelerating, and the characteristics of changes in the world, in the times, and in history are becoming increasingly pronounced. The probability of various crises and conflicts erupting has also greatly increased, and the international economic and political landscape is undergoing profound and complex adjustments and transformations. Looking back at history, we can see that the development of world socialism is closely related to the drastic changes in the international economic and political landscape. Therefore, we must pay close attention to the trends of change in the international economic and political landscape, correctly respond to challenges and opportunities, and from this deeply grasp the development and changes of the world socialist movement, so as to promote world peace, development, and stability, and advance the progress of human civilization.

当前,世界百年未有之大变局正在加速演变,世界之变、时代之变、历史之变的特征愈加明显,各种危机与冲突爆发的概率也大为增加,国际经济政治格局正在发生着深刻、复杂的调整变化。回顾历史,我们可以看到世界社会主义的发展与国际经济政治格局的剧烈变动密切相关。因此,我们要密切关注国际经济政治格局的变动态势,正确应对挑战和机遇,并从中深刻把握世界社会主义运动的发展变化,以促进世界的和平、发展与稳定,推动人类的文明进步。

I. The Development of World Socialism amid Changes in the International Economic and Political Landscape

一、国际经济政治格局变动中世界社会主义的发展

(I) The Underlying Logic of the Development of World Socialism amid Changes in the International Economic and Political Landscape

(一)国际经济政治格局变动中世界社会主义发展的底层逻辑

Since its emergence, capitalism has been a global category. Since the continuous development and formation of the capitalist world economic system, the international economic and political landscape has undergone several major changes. The movement of the fundamental contradiction of capitalism drives major changes in the global economic and political landscape. Every time the capitalist world economic system develops to a new stage, there is a major adjustment in the international economic and political landscape, and the world socialist movement also undergoes major changes and developments accordingly. International society is composed of many countries and multiple forces. To some extent, whether the international landscape and the international political and economic situation are stable is determined by the economic and political postures of several major forces and major countries, as well as their interactions and games. In the early era of old colonialism during the imperialist stage, because the globalization of capitalist production had not yet fully taken shape, developed capitalist countries often adopted naked colonial occupation to control and plunder Southern countries for economic gain. Capitalist great powers also frequently resorted to war to resolve intense conflicts. It was precisely because the balance of power, especially the balance of economic power, among the major capitalist powers underwent major changes that their contradictions and struggles intensified, even manifesting in the form of war, causing drastic changes in the international economic and political landscape, thereby enabling the forces of world socialism to rise by taking advantage of the situation. Lenin once pointed out: "The unevenness of economic and political development is an absolute law of capitalism." [1]1 V. I. Lenin, “Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism” (1917). In the capitalist world economic system, latecomer capitalist countries leverage their "late-mover advantage" to catch up and surpass the old established capitalist powers. Uneven economic development inevitably leads to uneven political and even military development. The unevenness of capitalist development in the imperialist era intensified, and the intensification of contradictions and struggles among the capitalist powers inevitably led to "wars for the redivision of the world," that is, world wars.

资本主义自产生起就是一个世界性的范畴,自资本主义世界经济体系不断发展并形成以来,国际经济政治格局已经发生了几次较大的变动。资本主义基本矛盾运动推动着全球经济政治格局大变动。资本主义世界经济体系每发展到一个新的阶段,国际经济政治格局就有一次大的调整,世界社会主义运动也会随之产生大的变化发展。构成国际社会的有诸多国家、多种力量,在某种程度上,国际格局、国际政治经济形势稳定与否,是由几个主要力量、主要国家的经济政治态势以及他们之间的互动博弈决定的。在帝国主义阶段早期的旧殖民主义时代,由于资本主义生产全球化尚未完全形成,发达资本主义国家往往采取赤裸裸的殖民占领方式来控制和掠夺南方国家,获取经济利益,资本主义大国还经常采取战争的方式来解决激烈的矛盾冲突。正是主要资本主义大国之间的实力对比特别是经济实力对比发生了大的变化,他们之间的矛盾斗争激化,乃至表现为战争的形式,使国际经济政治格局发生剧烈变动,从而使世界社会主义力量可以乘势而起。列宁曾经指出:“经济和政治发展的不平衡是资本主义的绝对规律。”在资本主义世界经济体系中,后起的资本主义国家发挥“后发优势”,后来居上,超过老牌的资本主义大国。经济发展不平衡又必然会导致政治乃至军事力量发展的不平衡,帝国主义时代资本主义发展的不平衡性加剧了,资本主义强国之间矛盾斗争的激化,就必然要爆发“重新瓜分世界的战争”,也就是世界大战。

The moments of drastic changes in the international economic and political landscape and the intensification of capitalist contradictions are often times when capitalist economic crises are relatively severe. The fundamental contradiction between socialized production and the capitalist private ownership of the means of production determines the periodic economic crises of capitalism, and economic crises further intensify class contradictions within capitalist societies and contradictions between states. To shift the crisis and escape it, some capitalist great powers then launch colonial wars of aggression or wars among the great powers for hegemony and spheres of influence. Marx pointed out: "Since the beginning of the 18th century, there has been no serious revolution in Europe that was not preceded by a commercial and financial crisis. The revolution of 1848 was no exception; nor was that of 1789. Indeed, we see every day not only that the signs of conflict between the ruling great powers and their subjects, between state and society, between class and class, are becoming more serious, but also that the conflicts among the present great powers themselves are becoming increasingly acute, even to the point of being on the verge of war... Neither war nor revolution is likely to cause a general European upheaval unless it arises from a general commercial and industrial crisis, and the signal for such a crisis always comes from England, the representative of European industry on the world market." [2]2 Mao Zedong, “On New Democracy” (1940). Therefore, Lenin believed that imperialism is the root cause of modern wars, especially world wars, and that wars inevitably intensify the contradictions and crises of imperialism. In the imperialist countries where contradictions are most acute and complex, that is, "the weakest link in the chain of imperialism," [3]3 The Asian-African Conference (Bandung Conference, 1955), the Non-Aligned Movement (founded 1961), and the Group of 77 (founded 1964) were key platforms for newly independent states to assert collective autonomy and resist great-power domination during the Cold War. proletarian revolution is not only inevitable but can also achieve the first victory of socialist revolution within a single country.

国际经济政治格局剧烈变动和资本主义矛盾激化的时刻往往是资本主义经济危机比较严重的时刻。生产社会化与生产资料资本主义私有制的基本矛盾决定了资本主义的周期性经济危机,经济危机进一步激化了资本主义社会的阶级矛盾、国家之间的矛盾。一些资本主义大国为了转嫁危机、走出危机,进而会发动殖民侵略战争或者是列强之间的争霸、争夺势力范围的战争。马克思指出:“欧洲从18世纪初以来没有一次严重的革命事先没发生过商业危机和金融危机。1848年的革命是这样,1789年的革命也是这样。不错,我们每天都看到,不仅称霸世界的列强和它们的臣民之间、国家和社会之间、阶级和阶级之间发生冲突的迹象日趋严重,而且现时的列强相互之间的冲突正在一步步尖锐,乃至剑拔弩张……战争也好,革命也好,如果不是来自工商业普遍危机,都不大可能造成全欧洲的纷争,而那种危机到来的信号,总是来自英国这个欧洲工业在世界市场上的代表。”所以,列宁认为帝国主义是现代战争尤其是世界大战的根源,而战争又必然要加剧帝国主义的矛盾和危机,在矛盾最为尖锐复杂的帝国主义国家,也就是“帝国主义链条的最薄弱环节”,无产阶级革命不但必然要发生,而且完全可以取得社会主义革命在一国之内的率先胜利。

(II) The Emergence of the Paris Commune and the Victory of the October Revolution in Russia amid Changes in the International Economic and Political Landscape

(二)国际经济政治格局变动中巴黎公社的产生与俄国十月革命的胜利

From the early 16th century to the mid-to-late 19th century was the period of the germination and development of the capitalist world economic system, also known as the stage of free competition of capitalism. During this stage, European capitalism began its early history of colonial aggression and expansion, drawing the backward countries of the world into it, promoting the establishment of the capitalist world economic system, and vast numbers of Asian, African, and Latin American countries began to be reduced to colonies and semi-colonies of Western countries. During this period, Britain took the lead in completing the Industrial Revolution and embarking on the capitalist path. Subsequently, France, Germany, the United States, and several other major countries successively developed into capitalist powers, causing drastic changes in the international economic and political landscape, a process accompanied by war and revolution. In 1870, the Franco-Prussian War broke out, a war launched by the Kingdom of Prussia to unify Germany and compete with France for hegemony on the European continent. France suffered a disastrous defeat in the war with Prussia. The people of Paris launched an uprising and established a republic, the Third French Republic. In March 1871, the people of Paris again overthrew the bourgeois provisional government and established the Paris Commune, the prototype of the world's first proletarian regime. In the mid-to-late 19th century, capitalism began to enter the stage of general monopoly capitalism. During this period, the capitalist powers intensified their external aggression and expansion, reducing many countries and regions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to their colonies and semi-colonies, forming the capitalist world colonial system. During this period, due to the uneven political and economic development of capitalist countries, World War I broke out. Lenin drew the conclusion that "imperialism is the eve of the socialist revolution" [4]4 The Plaza Accord (1985) was an agreement among the G5 nations (France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom) to depreciate the US dollar relative to the Japanese yen and the German mark, aimed at correcting the US trade deficit. and believed that "the imperialist war objectively must extremely accelerate and unprecedentedly intensify the class struggle of the proletariat against the bourgeoisie, and must inevitably turn into a civil war between the hostile classes." [5]5 V. I. Lenin, "The Tasks of the Proletariat in the Present Revolution" (the April Theses, 1917). The uneven development of imperialist countries created weak links in the chain of imperialism. These weak countries in the imperialist chain were relatively weak in strength, and their domestic contradictions were relatively concentrated and acute. The fierce rivalry and struggle among imperialist countries, especially the wars between them, caused extreme economic hardship in the imperialist countries, severely worsened the living conditions of the working class and working people, and led to a serious crisis in the rule of monopoly finance capital. This weakened the strength of the imperialist countries as a whole and also made the contradictions in the weak links of the imperialist chain more prominent, thus providing a rare historical opportunity for socialist revolution to succeed in these countries. If the proletarian parties in these countries were relatively strong and capable, and if the working class was tempered in struggle and had a higher degree of organization and consciousness, then the socialist revolution in these countries could achieve victory. Russia was precisely a weak link in the chain of imperialism. Lenin seized the crisis created in Russia by the world war among the imperialist countries, resolutely led the working class in socialist revolution, achieved an epoch-making victory, and turned socialism from theory into practice.

16世纪初期到19世纪中后期,是资本主义世界经济体系的萌芽与发展时期,这一时期也被称作是资本主义的自由竞争阶段。在这个阶段,欧洲资本主义开始了早期殖民侵略和扩张的历程,把世界上的落后国家卷进来,推动了资本主义世界经济体系的建立,广大亚非拉国家开始沦为西方国家的殖民地半殖民地。在这一时期,英国率先完成工业革命并走上资本主义道路,之后法国、德国、美国等几个主要国家也先后发展成为资本主义强国,使国际经济政治格局发生了剧烈变动,这个过程伴随着战争与革命。1870年,普法战争爆发,这是普鲁士王国为统一德意志并与法国争夺欧洲大陆霸权而爆发的战争。法国在同普鲁士的战争中遭到惨败,巴黎人民发动起义,建立了共和国,即法兰西第三共和国。1871年3月,巴黎人民又推翻了资产阶级临时政权,成立了巴黎公社,这是世界上第一个无产阶级政权的雏形。19世纪中后期,资本主义开始进入一般垄断资本主义阶段。这一时期,资本主义列强加紧对外侵略扩张,使亚非拉许多国家和地区沦为其殖民地半殖民地,形成了资本主义世界殖民体系。这一时期,由于资本主义国家政治经济发展的不平衡,第一次世界大战爆发。列宁作出了“帝国主义是社会主义革命的前夜”的结论,并认为:“帝国主义战争客观上必然要异常加速和空前加剧无产阶级反对资产阶级的阶级斗争,必然要转变为各敌对阶级间的国内战争。”帝国主义国家发展的不平衡性,使帝国主义链条中出现了薄弱环节,这些帝国主义链条中的薄弱国家实力较弱,国内矛盾比较集中和尖锐。帝国主义国家之间的激烈争夺和斗争,特别是帝国主义之间的战争,使得帝国主义国家国内经济极为困难,工人阶级和劳动人民的生活状况严重恶化,垄断金融资本的统治出现了严重危机。这从整体上削弱了帝国主义国家的力量,也使帝国主义链条中薄弱国家的矛盾更为突出,这就为社会主义革命在这些国家获得成功提供了难得的历史机遇。如果这些国家的无产阶级政党比较坚强有力,工人阶级在斗争中得到锻炼,组织程度和觉悟程度较高,那么这些国家的社会主义革命就有可能取得胜利。俄国就是帝国主义链条中的薄弱环节,列宁利用帝国主义国家世界大战在俄国所造成的危机,果断领导工人阶级进行社会主义革命,取得了划时代的胜利,使社会主义从理论变为实践。

(III) The Emergence of the Socialist Camp and the Rise of Nation-States amid Changes in the International Economic and Political Landscape

(三)国际经济政治格局变动中社会主义阵营的出现和民族独立国家的兴起

After the end of the First World War, as the uneven economic, political, and military development among imperialist states intensified once again, Germany, Italy, and Japan, whose military strength had grown relatively rapidly, demanded a redivision of the world’s spheres of influence. This further sharpened the contradictions among the imperialist powers, leading to the swift outbreak of the Second World War. Under the influence and inspiration of the world anti-fascist war, and under the leadership of communist parties in various countries, many states around the world embarked on the socialist path. Socialist forces continued to grow, expanding beyond the borders of a single country and forming the socialist camp led by the Soviet Union. After the Second World War, the emergence of the socialist camp and the formation of the bipolar structure ended the era of Western powers’ exclusive domination of global affairs. During this period, influenced by the Second World War and socialist revolutions, national liberation movements surged like a storm. Lenin pointed out: “Imperialism not only annexes newly opened territories but also carries out annexations in existing regions, intensifying national oppression and thereby provoking greater resistance.” [1]1 V. I. Lenin, “Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism” (1917). Not only were there irreconcilable contradictions among the imperialist states themselves, but the oppression and exploitation of colonial and semi-colonial countries by the imperialist powers would inevitably provoke resistance from these countries, and national liberation movements were also rising day by day. Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out: “Such revolutionary colonies and semi-colonies can no longer be regarded as allies of the world capitalist counter-revolutionary front; they have changed into allies of the world socialist revolutionary front.” [2]2 Mao Zedong, “On New Democracy” (1940). The independence and liberation movements of colonial and semi-colonial nation-states, as an integral part of the world proletarian revolution, were ultimately drawn into the general tide of the world revolutionary movement, striking at the imperialist colonial order and hastening the disintegration of the old colonial system of the capitalist world.

第一次世界大战结束后,随着帝国主义国家间经济、政治和军事发展不平衡的再次加剧,军事实力发展较快的德、意、日三国要求重新划分世界势力范围,使帝国主义之间的矛盾进一步尖锐起来,从而使第二次世界大战很快爆发。在世界反法西斯战争的影响和鼓舞下,在各国共产党的领导下,世界上很多国家走上了社会主义道路。社会主义力量不断壮大,越出了一国范围,形成了以苏联为首的社会主义阵营。“二战”后,社会主义阵营的出现和两极格局的形成,结束了西方列强独霸全球事务的历史。这一时期,受“二战”和社会主义革命的影响,民族解放运动风起云涌。列宁指出:“帝国主义不仅在新开辟的地区,而且在原有地区也实行兼并,加紧民族压迫,因而也使反抗加剧起来。”不仅帝国主义国家之间存在着不可调和的矛盾,帝国主义国家对殖民地半殖民地国家的压迫和剥削,必将引起这些国家的反抗,民族解放运动也日益兴起。毛泽东同志指出:“这种革命的殖民地半殖民地,已经不能当作世界资本主义反革命战线的同盟军,而改变为世界社会主义革命战线的同盟军了。”殖民地半殖民地民族国家的独立解放运动,也作为世界无产阶级革命的有机组成部分,最终卷入世界革命运动的总潮流中去,去冲击帝国主义的殖民秩序,促使资本主义世界旧殖民体系的瓦解。

Within the bipolar structure, newly independent nation-states gradually formed an emerging political force on the international stage — the Third World. Socialist countries supported and united with Third World countries in their sustained struggle against capitalist power politics and hegemonism, which was conducive to establishing a just and reasonable new international political and economic order. After gaining independence, the vast majority of Third World countries still faced a harsh international environment, confronting both the counterattack of Western countries and the constraints imposed by the old international political and economic order on their own development. The newly independent nation-states had to unite, strengthen cooperation and exchanges among themselves, jointly wage struggles against hegemonism, safeguard national sovereignty and independence, act independently in international affairs, and create favorable external conditions for economic development. Among these, the Asian-African Conference in the 1950s, the Non-Aligned Movement in the 1960s, and the Group of 77 were three important milestones in the united struggle of independent nation-states, which became the Third World. [3]3 The Asian-African Conference (Bandung Conference, 1955), the Non-Aligned Movement (founded 1961), and the Group of 77 (founded 1964) were key platforms for newly independent states to assert collective autonomy and resist great-power domination during the Cold War. In these processes, socialist countries played an active and promoting role. For example, at the Asian-African Conference, the Chinese delegation, personally led by Premier Zhou Enlai, participated in the conference. Faced with imperialist sabotage, Premier Zhou put forward the famous principle of “seeking common ground while reserving differences” and proposed the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, which ensured the smooth convening of the conference and the adoption of the Final Communiqué of the Asian-African Conference. The Third World, as an emerging international political and economic force, appeared on the international stage, gradually changing the international political and economic landscape and promoting the development of the world pattern toward multipolarity. The vast number of Third World countries, opposing hegemonism and power politics, became an important international force for promoting world peace and development and the most important and broadest ally of world socialism.

在两极格局之间,新生的民族独立国家在国际舞台上逐步形成了新兴的政治力量———第三世界。社会主义国家支持和联合第三世界国家持续开展反对资本主义强权政治和霸权主义的斗争,有利于建立公正合理的国际政治经济新秩序。广大第三世界国家独立之后,所处的国际环境依然是严峻的,既面临着西方国家的反扑,又面临着旧的国际政治经济秩序对自身发展的束缚。新兴民族独立国家必须联合起来,加强彼此间的合作与交流,共同进行反对霸权主义的斗争,维护国家的主权和独立,独立自主地在国际事务中发挥作用,为经济发展创造良好的外部条件。其中,20世纪50年代的亚非会议、60年代的不结盟运动和“七十七国集团”,是民族独立国家联合斗争,成为第三世界的三个重要的里程碑。在这些过程中,社会主义国家发挥了积极的促进作用。例如在亚非会议上,中国代表团在周恩来总理的亲自带领下参加了会议。面对帝国主义的破坏,周总理提出了著名的“求同存异”原则,并提出了和平共处五项原则,使会议顺利召开,通过了《亚非会议最后公报》。第三世界作为一种新兴的国际政治经济力量出现在国际舞台上,逐渐改变了国际政治经济格局,促进了世界格局向多极化发展。广大第三世界国家反对霸权主义和强权政治,成为促进世界和平与发展的重要国际力量,是世界社会主义最重要、最广大的同盟军。

II. The Manner and Intensity of Contradictions and Struggles among Major Powers amid Changes in the International Economic and Political Landscape, and World Socialism

二、国际经济政治格局变动中大国之间矛盾斗争的方式、强度与世界社会主义

(I) The Development and Changes in International Relations and Contradictory Struggles among Capitalist Countries after the Second World War

(一)“二战”后资本主义国家间国际关系、国际矛盾斗争的发展变化

Before the Second World War, the major capitalist countries frequently waged wars over the scramble for colonies, investment outlets, and markets. War was the highest form of the intensification of contradictions and struggles among the great powers, prompting drastic changes in the international economic and political landscape and thereby enabling world socialism to achieve tremendous development. After the Second World War until the end of the Cold War, the manner and intensity of contradictions and struggles among the great powers amid changes in the international economic and political landscape underwent major changes. The United States gradually built global hegemony, formed military alliances with Western countries to jointly confront socialist countries and Third World countries, and relations among capitalist great powers of the same type were primarily characterized by cooperation and competition. The profound economic and political roots of this era and the changes in international relations lie in the fact that capitalism had entered the stage of international monopoly capitalism. The large-scale transnational movement of capital and the unfolding of the international circulation of capital gave rise to capitalist economic globalization. On this basis, the developed capitalist countries formed a neocolonialist mode of global governance. By comprehensively wielding hegemonic power in the global economy, finance, science and technology, military affairs, and regulatory rules, mobile capital could obtain huge monopoly profits. Without resorting to military conquest and direct colonial rule, the developed capitalist countries could use various means, especially covert methods, to indirectly dominate, control, interfere with, and plunder backward countries and regions, so that these countries would continue to serve as their commodity markets, sources of raw materials, and investment outlets. Therefore, even though the vast number of Third World countries had achieved political independence, they remained constrained by the old capitalist world system, international unequal relations, and the old international economic and political order.

“二战”以前,各主要资本主义国家之间由于争夺殖民地、投资场所和市场,时常爆发战争,战争是大国之间矛盾斗争激化的最高表现形式,促使国际经济政治格局发生剧烈变动,从而使世界社会主义获得了巨大的发展。“二战”之后至冷战结束,国际经济政治格局变动中大国矛盾斗争的方式、强度发生了重大变化。美国逐步构建了全球霸权,与西方国家结成军事同盟,共同对付社会主义国家和第三世界国家,同类别的资本主义大国之间的关系主要以合作竞争为主。这种时代和国际关系变化的深刻经济政治根源在于资本主义进入了国际垄断资本主义阶段,大规模的资本跨国运动与资本国际循环的展开,形成了资本主义经济全球化。在此基础上,发达资本主义国家形成了新殖民主义的全球统治方式,综合运用全球经济、金融、科技、军事、规制规则等霸权,流动的资本就可以获得巨额垄断利润。发达资本主义国家不用进行武力征服和直接的殖民统治,就可以采取各种方式尤其是隐蔽的方式进行间接支配、控制、干涉与掠夺落后国家和地区,以使这些国家继续充当其商品市场、原料产地和投资场所。因此,广大第三世界国家即使已取得政治上的独立地位,但依然受旧的资本主义世界体系、国际不平等关系和国际经济政治旧秩序的制约。

Similarly, although the struggles among the major capitalist countries for economic and financial hegemony, investment outlets, sales markets, and sources of raw materials were fierce, they generally did not lead to direct armed conflict. The reason for this situation lies, on the one hand, in the emergence of the socialist camp, and on the other hand, in the fact that the United States, in order to maintain its super-hegemony, could achieve its strategic goals by using various non-war means, such as economic, financial, and trade measures, to suppress other capitalist great powers. After the Second World War, Japan’s economy grew rapidly, and it ran a huge trade surplus with the United States, gradually becoming the world’s largest creditor nation. In the 1980s, under pressure from the United States, Japan was forced to sign the Plaza Accord, [4]4 The Plaza Accord (1985) was an agreement among the G5 nations (France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom) to depreciate the US dollar relative to the Japanese yen and the German mark, aimed at correcting the US trade deficit. carrying out financial liberalization reforms. The rapid and substantial appreciation of the yen damaged the competitiveness of Japan’s export enterprises, impacted the Japanese economy, and plunged it into a long period of stagnation. The United States treated European countries similarly. The United States believed that a unified Europe was not in its interests. It often created divisions and frictions within the European Union, supported the UK’s Brexit move, stirred up disputes between new and old Europe, used Poland, Romania, and other countries to split the EU and weaken France and Germany, opposed the EU’s establishment of an independent security and defense system, and militarily guarded against Europe building defense integration. In particular, it was extremely vigilant against other Western countries challenging the hegemony of the US dollar. On January 1, 1999, the euro was officially launched, challenging the hegemonic position of the US dollar. Subsequently, the US-led NATO bombed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, after which the Kosovo War broke out, the euro exchange rate fell, and under the suppression of various means, the euro has found it difficult to challenge the status of the US dollar even to this day.

同样,主要资本主义国家之间争夺经济金融霸权、投资场所、销售市场和原料产地的斗争虽然也激烈,但一般不会发生直接武装冲突。出现这种情况的原因,一方面在于社会主义阵营的出现,另一方面在于美国为了维护其超级霸权,采用各种非战争手段如用经济金融、贸易等手段打压其他资本主义大国即可以达成战略目的。“二战”后,日本经济快速增长,与美国有着巨额贸易顺差,逐渐成为世界上最大的债权国。20世纪80年代,在美国压力下,日本被迫签订了“广场协议”,进行金融自由化改革,日元快速大幅升值,损害了日本出口企业的竞争力,冲击了日本经济,使日本经济进入了长期停滞期。对于欧洲国家,美国同样如此。美国认为统一的欧洲并不符合美国的利益,经常在欧盟内部制造分歧和摩擦,对英国的脱欧行为给予了支持;挑起新欧洲和旧欧洲之争,利用波兰、罗马尼亚等国去分裂欧盟,削弱法德;反对欧盟建立独立的安全防护体系,在军事上防范欧洲构建防务一体化。特别是极力警惕其他西方国家挑战美元霸权,1999年1月1日欧元正式宣告诞生,挑战了美元的霸权地位。随后,以美国为首的北约对南联盟进行了轰炸,之后科索沃战争打响,欧元汇率下跌,在各种手段打压之下,欧元直到现在也很难挑战美元的地位。

(II) The Development and Changes in the Relationship and Contradictory Struggles between the Two Systems after the Second World War

(二)“二战”后两制关系、矛盾斗争的发展变化

After World War II, international relations also existed between capitalist and socialist states. Since their birth, socialist states have been met with hostility from capitalism, and capitalist states have spared no effort in besieging and strangling socialist states. Before World War II, capitalist states mainly used military force to do so. After World War II, when the developed capitalist states could not prevail by force, they adopted the method of "outwitting" and carried out "peaceful evolution" [6]6 "Peaceful evolution" (和平演变) refers to the Western strategy, originating in the Cold War, of using non-military means—such as ideological infiltration, economic pressure, and cultural influence—to subvert socialist states from within. against socialist states. That is, the West exerted pressure and influence on socialist states in political, economic, ideological, diplomatic and other aspects, attempting to induce changes within socialist states, especially within their ruling parties, that would suit the West's needs, and to bring socialist states into the orbit of capitalism. Correspondingly, the two camps centered on the United States and the Soviet Union also mainly used the form of the "Cold War," comprehensively employing political, military, economic, cultural and other means to engage in struggle and competition at different levels and in different spheres. Although differences and conflicts were severe, both sides of the confrontation tried their best to avoid triggering a large-scale world war (a world war); their confrontation was usually conducted through local proxy wars, as well as "cold" methods such as technological and arms races and geopolitical competition.

“二战”后,还存在着资本主义国家和社会主义国家之间的国际关系。社会主义国家自诞生以来,就一直遭到资本主义的敌视,资本主义国家不遗余力地对社会主义国家进行围攻和绞杀。在“二战”以前,资本主义国家主要是用武力来进行的。“二战”以后,发达资本主义国家强攻不下,便采取“智取”的方式,对社会主义国家进行“和平演变”,即西方在政治、经济、思想、外交等方面对社会主义国家施加压力和影响,企图促使社会主义国家内部尤其是执政党内部发生合乎它们需要的变化,把社会主义国家纳入资本主义的轨道。与此相适应,以美苏为主的两个阵营之间也主要以“冷战”的形式,综合运用政治、军事、经济、文化等手段,在不同领域、不同层次进行博弈斗争。虽然分歧和冲突严重,但对抗双方都尽力避免导致世界范围的大规模战争(世界大战)爆发,其对抗通常通过局部代理人战争,以及科技和军备竞赛、地缘博弈等“冷”方式进行。

The dissolution of the Soviet Union is a "successful" example of developed capitalist states carrying out peaceful evolution against socialist states. The various causes of the Soviet Union's dissolution are still worth studying and summarizing today. Among them, the economic war meticulously planned by the United States can be said to have "made an indelible contribution." Before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United States, through economic intelligence analysis, learned that the Soviet Union was a major oil-exporting country, and the foreign exchange earned from oil and natural gas exports accounted for about 70% of all Soviet hard currency. Without this money, the Soviet economy would lose an important pillar. Therefore, under the manipulation and planning of the United States, international oil prices continued to fall in the decade before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, thereby exacerbating the deterioration of the Soviet economic situation and hastening the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The dissolution of the Soviet Union led to the end of the bipolar pattern. Although the international economic and political landscape underwent drastic changes, this did not occur in the form of a large-scale war. Due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the struggle and competition among major powers affecting the transformation of the international economic and political landscape mainly took place between the West, led by the United States, and emerging major powers such as China and Russia.

苏联解体,就是发达资本主义国家和平演变社会主义国家的“成功”例子。苏联解体的种种原因,时至今日,仍然值得研究总结。其中,美国精心策划的经济战可谓“功不可没”。苏联解体前,美国经过经济情报分析得知,苏联是石油出口大国,石油和天然气出口所赚取的外汇大约占苏联全部硬通货的70%,假如没有这笔钱,苏联经济将失去一条重要的支柱。于是,在美国的操纵策划下,国际油价在苏联解体前的十年内持续下跌,从而加剧了苏联经济形势的恶化,促使了苏联解体。苏联的解体,导致两极格局的终结。国际经济政治格局虽然发生了剧烈的变动,但却不是以大规模的战争的形式。由于苏联的解体,影响国际经济政治格局变动的大国之间的斗争博弈主要发生在以美国为首的西方与中国、俄罗斯等新兴大国之间。

After the end of the Cold War, capitalism continued to focus its strategic priority on encircling and intercepting socialist forces, with China as its main target. After the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe [7]7 "Drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe" (苏东剧变) refers to the collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe in 1989 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991., although Russia implemented a capitalist political and economic system, the United States still pursued a strategy of "weakening, containing and guarding against" it. This is because the international financial monopoly capitalist forces, led by the United States, needed to be the sole hegemon and to bring the countries of Eastern Europe and the Soviet region completely under their control. The US-led NATO continuously expanded eastward, squeezing Russia's strategic space and weakening Russia's power. This ultimately led to the rise of nationalist sentiment within Russia, and Russia also began to counterattack. Russia not only strengthened its strategic cooperative relationship with China, maintained close relations with Iran, and adopted a tough stance on opposing NATO expansion, but also began to adopt a non-cooperative policy towards the United States on a series of issues, exacerbating the overall diplomatic predicament the United States faced after launching the Iraq War, and causing profound changes in the global strategic situation. Russia possesses the strong comprehensive national power and various strategic resources left by socialism, giving it the capital to contend with the United States. Other countries, under the squeeze of international financial monopoly capital, also gained a breathing space. This is also a rich strategic legacy left by socialism for world peace and development.

冷战结束后,资本主义继续把战略重点放在对社会主义力量进行围追堵截上,中国是其主要目标。苏东剧变之后,俄罗斯虽然实行了资本主义的政治经济制度,但美国仍然对其实行了“削弱、遏制和防范”的战略。这是因为,以美国为首的国际金融垄断资本主义势力需要一家独大,要将东欧和苏联地区的国家完全纳入它们的控制之中。以美国为首的北约不断东扩,挤压俄罗斯的战略空间,削弱俄罗斯的势力。这最终造成俄罗斯国内民族主义情绪的高涨,俄罗斯也开始了反击。俄罗斯不仅强化了与中国的战略协作关系,与伊朗保持密切关系,在反对北约扩张方面采取强硬立场,而且在一系列问题上开始对美国采取了不合作政策,加剧了美国发动伊拉克战争后全局性的外交困境,使全球战略态势发生了深刻变化。俄罗斯有社会主义留下的强大的综合国力和种种战略资源,有和美国抗衡的资本,其它国家在国际金融垄断资本的压榨下也有了喘息的机会,这也是社会主义为世界和平和发展留下的丰厚战略遗产。

(III) New Developments and Changes in the Strategic Focus and Methods of Struggle in the Relationship between the Two Systems

(三)两制关系中战略竞争重心和斗争方式的新发展变化

Because no war broke out among the major capitalist countries, because socialist countries had to vigorously engage in economic construction, because of capitalism's new colonial ruling methods, because of capitalism's "peaceful evolution" against socialism, and because socialist countries and Third World countries were insufficiently prepared for the changed new ways in which capitalism ruled and influenced the world, lacking perfect methods to crack and defend against them, and failing to properly respond to challenges, the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the dissolution of the Soviet Union occurred, causing a major setback for the world socialist movement. Since the end of the Cold War, the West has regarded China as the only remaining major socialist country, and thus China has become the main strategic target of Western hostile forces for Westernization, division and containment. Although socialist countries like China have embarked on the path of reform and opening up and actively participated in the process of economic globalization, the West still harbors deep strategic suspicions towards China and persists in the strategic goal of gradually achieving peaceful evolution in China through engagement. Most socialist countries were established on the basis of backward economy and culture and are surrounded by the capitalist world. They urgently need to develop productive forces and enhance comprehensive national power to cope with the military threats of capitalist countries. In addition, they need to improve people's living standards through developing productive forces to enhance the attractiveness of their systems. An important reason for the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe was that, compared with developed Western countries, the growth of social productive forces and the improvement of people's living standards had become increasingly slow, affecting the attractiveness of the socialist system and the people's confidence. Therefore, during this period, the main manifestation of the world socialist movement was the reform and construction of socialist countries, constantly exploring development paths suited to their national conditions. The strategic focus and methods of struggle in the relationship between the two systems, socialism and capitalism, were mainly manifested in economic competition and institutional competition. In other words, the main challenges faced by socialist countries were, on the one hand, dealing with traditional military threats from capitalist countries and non-traditional security threats such as "peaceful evolution," and on the other hand, how to rapidly improve comprehensive national power centered on economic strength, and enhance institutional competitiveness and attractiveness.

由于主要资本主义国家间没有爆发战争,由于社会主义国家要大力进行经济建设,由于资本主义的新殖民统治方式,由于资本主义对社会主义的“和平演变”,由于社会主义和第三世界国家对变化了的资本主义统治和影响世界的新方式准备不充分,没有完善的破解和防备之道,没有妥善应对好挑战,以致发生了东欧剧变、苏联解体,使世界社会主义运动遭受到了重大挫折。冷战结束以来,西方认为中国是仅存的社会主义大国,因而中国已经成为西方敌对势力进行西化、分化和遏制的主要战略目标。中国等社会主义国家虽然走上了改革开放之路,积极参与到经济全球化进程之中,但西方仍对中国有着深深的战略疑惧,仍然坚持在接触中逐渐和平演变中国的战略目标。社会主义国家大多建立在经济文化落后的基础上,而且处于资本主义世界的包围之中,迫切需要发展生产力、增强综合国力,以应对资本主义国家的武力威胁。此外,还需要通过发展生产力、改善人民的生活水平,以提高制度吸引力。苏东剧变的一个重要原因就是与西方发达国家相比,社会生产力和人民生活水平的提高日趋缓慢,影响了社会主义制度的吸引力和人民的信心。因此这一时期,世界社会主义运动的表现方式主要是社会主义国家的改革建设,不断探索适合本国国情的发展道路。社会主义与资本主义两制关系的战略重心和斗争方式主要表现在经济竞争、制度竞争方面,或者说社会主义国家面临的主要挑战一方面在于应对资本主义国家的传统军事威胁、“和平演变”等非传统安全方面的威胁,另一方面就在于如何以较快的速度提高以经济实力为中心的综合国力、增强制度竞争力和吸引力。

The highly developed productive forces and large-scale socialized production created by capitalism are the material foundation for socialist relations of production. Marx and Engels believed that within the capitalist world system, where developed Western countries coexist with backward Third World countries, backward countries could achieve leapfrog development, and the realization of such a leap by backward countries must be conditional on fully learning from and utilizing all the positive achievements created by capitalism. At the same time, after backward countries achieve revolutionary victory, world socialism has not yet achieved overall victory, and capitalism continues to develop. That is to say, in the world historical process, the development of the world economic system and the development of the relationship between capitalism and socialism remain global movements. Within the capitalist world system based on the world market, the relationship between capitalism and socialism involves not only a vertical relationship of succession and substitution in development, but also a horizontal relationship of interaction and mutual complementarity in diffusion. Backward countries need to absorb not only the past advanced achievements of developed Western countries, but also the advanced achievements they create in the contemporary era. There are many historical lessons from the international communist movement after World War II. An important one is that after some backward countries embarked on the socialist path, they neglected to sublimate and utilize capitalist civilization, and as a result paid a heavy price. In its international exchanges and relations with capitalist countries, although China faces major challenges such as preventing Western peaceful evolution and political, economic, scientific and technological suppression, it has persisted in taking economic construction as the central task and development as the absolute principle, persisted in normal international exchanges with the West, and learned from the civilized achievements created by Western capitalism, thereby achieving great successes in modernization construction.

资本主义创造的高度发达的生产力和社会化大生产,是社会主义生产关系的物质基础。马克思、恩格斯认为,在发达的西方国家与落后的第三世界国家并存的资本主义世界体系内部,落后国家有可能实现跨越式的发展,而落后国家跨越的实现必须是以充分学习和利用资本主义所创造的一切肯定成果为条件。同时,落后国家取得革命胜利后,世界社会主义尚未获得整体性胜利,资本主义也还在发展,也即是说,世界历史进程中世界经济体系的发展与资本主义和社会主义关系的发展仍然是全球性的运动。在以世界市场为基础的资本主义世界体系中,资本主义与社会主义之间的关系不仅存在着纵向发展的继承替代关系,而且还存在着横向扩散的互动互补关系,落后国家要吸收的不仅是西方发达国家既往的先进成果,而且还有其在当代所创造的先进性成果。“二战”后国际共产主义运动的历史教训很多,其中重要的一条,就是一些落后国家在走上社会主义道路后,忽视了对资本主义文明的扬弃和利用,结果付出了沉重的代价。中国在与资本主义国家的国际交往、国际关系中,虽然面临着防止西方和平演变以及政治、经济、科技等方面打压的重大挑战,仍然坚持以经济建设为中心、发展是硬道理,坚持与西方进行正常的国际交往,学习西方资本主义创造的文明成果,从而取得了现代化建设的巨大成就。

III. The Accelerated Transformation of the Current International Economic and Political Landscape and the Development of World Socialism

三、当今国际经济政治格局的加速演变与世界社会主义的发展

(I) The Overall Strategic Situation of the Accelerated Transformation of the Current International Economic and Political Landscape

(一)当今国际经济政治格局加速演变的总体战略态势

The end of the Cold War and the termination of the bipolar structure marked the entry of the world economic and political landscape into a new period. In particular, since 2008, the financial and economic crises in the United States and globally triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis have plunged the global economy into a long-wave cyclical recession. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the uncertainty and instability of the global economy, making the prospects for recovery and development of global economic growth even more difficult to predict. Because capitalism is in the downward phase of the economic cycle, the global economy remains persistently sluggish, which has also triggered various economic, social, political, and geopolitical contradictions. World peace and development face increasingly severe challenges, and the world has entered a relatively turbulent period, with changes unseen in a century accelerating their evolution. After the end of the bipolar structure, the rifts between the United States and the West have also gradually widened. Within Western countries, the relative strength and status of the major capitalist countries are undergoing significant changes. The capitalist world has formed three centers of power (the United States, Western Europe, and Japan), while other Western countries are striving to break free from U.S. control and expand their own influence. This is a new manifestation of the law of uneven development of imperialist countries at work. After the international financial crisis, the relative power of the United States and Western countries has declined. The hegemonic position of the United States is relatively weakening, but it still occupies a dominant position among developed capitalist countries and remains the main pillar upholding the capitalist system. In Europe, the United States continues to promote NATO’s eastward expansion, attempting to replace the European Union with NATO, reintegrate Europe, construct a new European geopolitical architecture, squeeze Russia’s living space, and even completely dismember Russia, all in service of the United States’ pursuit of European hegemony and world hegemony. In the international balance of power, the strength of the emerging major-country group represented by the BRICS countries is continuously increasing, and the strength of socialist countries represented by China is also steadily developing. Socialist forces in the world and international forces that love peace and justice are waging unremitting struggles to resist the old capitalist order, establish a new international political and economic order, and promote world peace, stability, and development, becoming an important force in the international political and economic landscape.

冷战的结束,两极格局的终结,标志着世界经济与政治格局已进入了一个新的时期。特别是2008年以来,由次贷危机引发的美国和全球的金融危机和经济危机,使全球经济陷入一个长波周期的衰退期。新冠疫情的暴发,又加剧了全球经济的不确定性和不稳定性,使得全球经济增长的恢复与发展前景更加难以预料。由于资本主义处于经济周期的下降期,全球经济持续低迷,这也引发了各种经济、社会、政治和地缘矛盾,世界和平与发展面临着日益严峻的挑战,全球进入了一个比较动荡的时期,百年未有之大变局正在加速演化。两极格局终结之后,美国及西方之间的裂痕也在逐渐加大。在西方国家内部,主要资本主义国家的实力地位对比也在发生重大变化。资本主义世界形成了三个实力中心(美国、西欧和日本),其他西方国家则力图摆脱美国的控制,扩大自己的影响力,这是帝国主义国家发展不平衡规律发生作用的新情况。国际金融危机之后,美国以及西方国家的实力相对衰落。美国的霸权地位在相对下降,但在发达资本主义国家中仍居主导地位,并且仍然是维护资本主义制度的主要支柱。在欧洲,美国不断推动北约东扩,企图以北约取代欧盟,重新整合欧洲,构建欧洲新地缘政治架构,挤压俄罗斯生存空间,甚至将俄罗斯彻底肢解,为美国谋求欧洲霸权和世界霸权服务。在国际力量对比中,以金砖国家为代表的新兴大国群体的力量不断增强,以中国为代表的社会主义国家的力量也在不断发展。世界上社会主义力量和国际上爱好和平正义的力量为反抗资本主义旧秩序、建立国际政治经济新秩序、促进世界的和平稳定与发展而进行着不懈的斗争,成为国际政治经济格局中重要的力量。

In the past, the United States and the West mainly influenced the world through neocolonial methods, generally refraining from direct armed intervention or armed conflict against major powers. Moreover, the constraints of international forces pursuing peaceful development and justice, as well as the contradictions and struggles among major powers, also kept world peace, development, and stability in a state of relative peace overall, despite facing increasingly severe challenges. However, in the face of today’s increasingly complex and severe international situation, we must also soberly recognize that as the global wealth gap continues to widen, and as the total volume of international financial monopoly capital continues to rise—especially as it becomes deeply mired in crisis—the amount of surplus value and blood transfusion needed for its operation, pursuit of profit, and crisis shifting grows ever larger, which can only drive it to adopt more risky behavior. NATO’s continuous eastward expansion and strategic pressure on Russia have finally led to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, indicating that the future international economic and political situation will be in a state of accelerated evolution, and global peace, development, and stability face enormous threats.

以往,美国及西方主要采取新殖民主义的方式来影响世界,一般不直接出面对大国进行武装干预、发生武装冲突,而且有国际上追求和平发展的正义力量和诸大国间矛盾斗争的牵制,也使世界和平、发展与稳定虽然面临着日益严峻的挑战,但还保持着总体上相对和平的状态。但面对当今日益复杂严峻的国际局势,我们也要清醒地认识到,随着全球贫富差距的不断扩大,随着国际金融垄断资本总量的不断上升,特别是其深陷危机之中,其维持运转、追逐利润、转嫁危机所需的剩余价值、输血量越来越大,只能促使其采取更加冒险的行为。北约的持续东扩,对俄罗斯的战略紧逼,终于导致了俄乌冲突,这预示着今后的国际经济政治局势将会处在加速演变之中,全球和平、发展与稳定面临着巨大的威胁。

(II) China’s Strategic Environment and Strategic Confidence amid the Accelerated Evolution of the International Economic and Political Landscape

(二)国际经济政治格局加速演变中中国的战略环境与战略自信

In the general international environment, because the United States and the West adopt neocolonial and neo-imperialist methods of global plunder and domination, the United States’ “peaceful evolution” [8]8 “Peaceful evolution” (和平演变) refers to a strategy, attributed to Western powers, of promoting the internal transformation of socialist states through non-military means such as ideological infiltration, economic influence, and cultural exchange, rather than direct confrontation. toward China and other socialist countries is unfolding on all fronts. Struggles around geopolitical security, economic and financial security, political security, and cultural and ideological security—infiltration versus counter-infiltration, control versus counter-control, intervention versus counter-intervention—have always existed. Amid changes unseen in a century, for socialist countries, especially the world’s largest socialist country—China—it faces more urgent strategic pressure and security development challenges from the United States. The U.S. ruling class has already designated China as its main strategic competitor, further intensifying efforts to strategically encircle China, with geopolitical containment, economic suppression, financial attacks, technological and trade sanctions, and ideological attacks becoming increasingly fierce and overt.

在一般的国际环境中,由于美国及西方采取新殖民主义和新帝国主义的全球掠夺和统治方式,美国对中国等社会主义国家的“和平演变”在各条战线上展开,围绕地缘安全、经济金融安全、政治安全、文化和意识形态安全,渗透与反渗透、控制与反控制、干预与反干预等方面的斗争一直存在。在百年未有之大变局中,对于社会主义国家而言,尤其是世界上最大的社会主义国家——中国,面临着美国更多更紧迫的战略压力和安全发展挑战。美国统治阶层已经将中国作为主要的战略竞争对手,进一步加大了战略围堵中国的力度,对中国的地缘遏制、经济打压、金融攻击、科技贸易制裁和意识形态的攻击越来越激烈和公开化。

To maintain its hegemonic position, the United States emphasizes a “democratic values alliance” and a “rules-based international order,” particularly in Asia, claiming to “return to the Asia-Pacific” and forcefully promoting the “Indo-Pacific Strategy.” On the basis of traditional alliances such as the “U.S.-Japan Security Treaty” and the “U.S.-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty,” it is pushing the “Quad” (U.S.-Japan-India-Australia) alliance and the “AUKUS” (U.S.-UK-Australia) alliance, intending to form a new “Circum-Pacific Treaty Organization” military alliance to encircle China. In short, China faces an increasingly uncertain and unstable strategic environment internationally. We must promptly monitor changes in the intensity, severity, and methods of international contradictions and struggles amid the accelerated evolution of the international political and economic landscape, and make full strategic preparations and appropriate strategic responses. At the historical intersection of the “Two Centenary Goals” [9]9 The “Two Centenary Goals” (两个一百年) are the strategic objectives of the CPC: to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by the centenary of the CPC in 2021, and to build China into a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, and harmonious by the centenary of the People’s Republic of China in 2049., the world has entered a period of turbulent change. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: “At present and for some time to come, although China’s development remains in an important period of strategic opportunity, both opportunities and challenges have undergone new developments and changes, and both opportunities and challenges are unprecedented in scale; overall, opportunities outweigh challenges.” [10]10 This is a quotation from Xi Jinping’s remarks at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee in October 2020, discussing the 14th Five-Year Plan. “The trend and momentum are on our side; this is the source of our resolve and confidence, and also the source of our determination and confidence.” [11]11 This is a quotation from Xi Jinping’s speech at a New Year gathering in 2021, emphasizing China’s favorable position in the face of global changes. Over the more than 70 years since the founding of New China, especially the more than 40 years of reform and opening up, our Party has always adhered to the principle that development is the absolute principle, promoting sustained and healthy economic and social development, achieving remarkable accomplishments, and significantly enhancing comprehensive national strength in economic, technological, and defense capabilities, ushering in bright prospects for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. We uphold and develop socialism with Chinese characteristics, creating a new path of Chinese-path modernization and a new form of human civilization. This “trend and momentum” means that the firm pace of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is unstoppable, and the attractiveness and cohesion of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics are increasingly strengthened. In short, with the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, the institutional advantages of socialism with Chinese characteristics, the spiritual strength of self-confidence, self-reliance, and the courage to engage in new great struggles, and the solid material foundation accumulated through the great achievements of socialist modernization, we can use the certainty of our own development to respond to the uncertainty of the external environment, extend our period of strategic opportunity, and smoothly achieve the second centenary goal.

美国为了维护自身的霸权地位,强调“民主价值观联盟”、“基于规则的国际秩序”,特别在亚洲,声称“重返亚太”,强推“印太战略”,在传统的“美日安保条约”和“美韩共同防御条约”等同盟基础上,力推“美日印澳”四国联盟和“美英澳”同盟,意图形成新的“环太平洋公约组织”军事同盟来围堵中国。总之,中国在国际上面临着日益不确定不稳定的战略环境,我们要及时关注国际政治经济格局加速演变中国际矛盾斗争强度、烈度和方式的变化,作出充分战略准备和妥善战略应对。在“两个一百年”奋斗目标历史交汇期,世界进入动荡变革期。习近平总书记指出:“当前和今后一个时期,虽然我国发展仍然处于重要战略机遇期,但机遇和挑战都有新的发展变化,机遇和挑战之大都前所未有,总体上机遇大于挑战。”“时与势在我们一边,这是我们定力和底气所在,也是我们的决心和信心所在。”新中国成立70多年来特别是改革开放40多年来,我们党始终坚持发展是硬道理,推动经济社会持续健康发展,取得了举世瞩目的巨大成就,经济实力、科技实力、国防实力等综合国力显著增强,为中华民族的伟大复兴迎来了光明前景。我们坚持和发展中国特色社会主义,创造了中国式现代化新道路,创造了人类文明新形态。这种“时与势”就是中华民族伟大复兴的坚定步伐不可阻挡、中国特色社会主义制度的吸引力和凝聚力日益增强。总之,我们有以习近平同志为核心的党中央的坚强领导,有中国特色社会主义的制度优势,有自信自强敢于进行新的伟大斗争的精神力量,有社会主义现代化建设取得巨大成就所积累的坚实物质基础,就能用自身发展的确定性来应对外部环境的不确定性,延长我们的战略机遇期,顺利实现第二个百年的奋斗目标。

(III) The Development of World Socialist Forces amid the Accelerated Evolution of the International Economic and Political Landscape

(三)国际经济政治格局加速演变中世界社会主义力量的发展

At present, the world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century, accelerating in their evolution. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought about profound changes in the international situation, the capitalist crisis is deep-seated, and the peace and development of human society face unprecedented challenges. World socialism and the left-wing movement are confronted with both development opportunities and various risks and challenges. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the drastic changes in Eastern Europe plunged the world socialist movement into a low ebb. Most communist parties and left-wing forces around the world, while in this low ebb, remained convinced of the truth of Marxism and the scientific nature of communism and did not sink into decline. Under extremely difficult conditions, through theoretical and policy adjustments, they entered a period of renewed gestation and development. Internationally, socialist countries such as China have calmly responded to the challenges of hegemonic states, and the cause of socialist construction has continuously advanced. Because the economic crisis has dealt a heavy blow to capitalism, emerging countries have risen abruptly, and contradictions among major powers have imposed constraints, world socialism and left-wing forces have also been steadily recovering. After the international financial crisis, socialism once again attracted people from all over the world. In the developed Western countries, according to public opinion polls, more and more people yearn for socialism and believe in socialism. The people of the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries increasingly miss the various positive aspects of the socialist era, and socialist currents of thought in Asia, Africa, and Latin America have also become active again. Particularly in Latin America, the Latin American left wing is an important component of the world socialist movement. Marked by Hugo Chávez’s victory in the Venezuelan election in 1998, a group of center-left forces subsequently rose in Latin America, exerting a profoundly positive impact on the development of world socialism. After Chávez’s death, the Latin American left wing suffered setbacks. However, the failure of right-wing governance in Latin America, coupled with intensified social inequality and poverty, has in recent years given rise to a new round of the “pink tide” in Latin America, which also reflects the resilience of world socialism and left-wing forces. Particularly with socialism with Chinese characteristics entering a New Era, this means that scientific socialism is radiating strong vitality in 21st-century China. Socialism with Chinese characteristics has added powerful strength to the revitalization of world socialism and has greatly inspired world socialism and left-wing forces. World socialism and left-wing forces also focus on cooperation and unity, promoting new development in the left-wing and world socialist movements. Communist parties in many countries actively participate in international forums such as the “International Meeting of Communist and Workers’ Parties.” The “International Meeting of Communist and Workers’ Parties” is the most influential and relatively effective platform for unity and exchange among communist parties worldwide. Communist parties also emphasize regional unity. For example, under the initiative of the Communist Party of Greece, the “Initiative” of European Communist and Workers’ Parties was established, an organization for the unity and cooperation of European communist and workers’ parties. This organization was founded in 2013 but dissolved in 2023. However, on this basis, some communist parties from European countries established the “European Communist Action” in November 2023.

当前,世界百年未有之大变局加速演进,俄乌冲突带来国际局势深刻演变,资本主义危机深重,人类社会和平与发展面临前所未有的挑战,世界社会主义和左翼运动既面临着发展机遇,也面临各种风险和挑战。苏联解体、东欧剧变使世界社会主义运动陷入低潮,处在低潮中的世界各国共产党和左翼力量,大多数坚信马克思主义的真理性和共产主义的科学性,并没有沉沦下去,在极端困难条件下,经过理论与政策的调整,进入了重新酝酿发展期。在国际上,中国等社会主义国家从容应对霸权主义国家的挑战,社会主义建设事业不断前进。由于经济危机使资本主义遭受重创,新兴国家异军突起,大国之间矛盾的制约,世界社会主义和左翼力量也在不断回升。国际金融危机后,社会主义再次吸引着世界各地的人们。在西方发达国家,据民意调查,向往社会主义、相信社会主义的人越来越多了。原苏联东欧国家的人民越来越怀念社会主义时期的种种美好,亚洲、非洲和拉美地区的社会主义思潮也重新活跃起来了。特别是在拉丁美洲,拉美左翼是世界社会主义运动的重要组成部分。以1998年查韦斯赢得委内瑞拉大选为标志,之后拉美一批中左翼力量崛起,对世界社会主义的发展产生了极为深远的积极影响。查韦斯去世之后,拉美左翼经受挫折。但拉美右翼社会治理失灵,社会不平等和贫困现象加剧,近年来,拉美又出现了新一轮“粉红色”浪潮,这也反映了世界社会主义和左翼力量的韧性。特别是随着中国特色社会主义进入新时代,意味着科学社会主义在21世纪的中国焕发出强大生机活力,中国特色社会主义为世界社会主义振兴增添强大的力量,极大地鼓舞了世界社会主义和左翼力量。世界社会主义和左翼力量也注重合作与联合,促进左翼和世界社会主义运动获得了新发展。许多国家共产党积极参加“共产党和工人党国际会议”这样的国际论坛。“共产党和工人党国际会议”是影响力最大的、较有成效的世界各国共产党之间联合与交流的平台。各国共产党还注重区域间的联合。如在希腊共产党倡导下,成立了欧洲共产党和工人党“倡议”,这是欧洲共产党和工人党团结合作的组织,该组织于2013年成立,但于2023年解散。不过,在此基础上,一些欧洲国家的共产党又于2023年11月成立了“欧洲共产主义行动”。

Communist parties and left-wing organizations in various countries also actively participate in and organize social movements such as protests and strikes, continuously expanding the influence of left-wing forces. In recent years, as the structural crisis of capitalism in developed Western countries and Europe has continued to evolve and spread to various fields, political turmoil in Western and European politics has intensified, and social movements such as protests and strikes have surged, providing certain opportunities and space for the development of socialist forces. Communist parties in Western countries actively participate in these movements to expand their own influence and gain new development. However, the development of world socialism and left-wing forces also faces challenges from the right wing. The political and economic crises spreading across the United States and the West should have provided a social foundation for the revival of left-wing forces. Communist parties in Western countries should have seized this opportunity to achieve significant development. Yet, because communist parties in various countries are generally weak and have limited influence, right-wing forces have instead gradually gained the upper hand in the political arenas of some countries. The guiding ideologies and theoretical propositions of communist parties in many countries are not unified. Almost every country has multiple communist parties, with serious problems of dispersed and fragmented strength. The parties’ programs and policies, as well as their organizational structures and modes of operation, cannot adequately adapt to changes in the social structures of various countries. The efforts of some countries’ communist parties to form electoral alliances and adopt parliamentary paths to seize state power have also yielded little effect. The influence of communist parties in various countries urgently needs to be enhanced. For world left-wing and socialist forces, it is necessary to carry out theoretical innovation, continuously unify thought, and further strengthen the party’s appeal and cohesion. They must actively engage in activities addressing the various interest demands of the broad working masses worldwide, strengthen the leadership and representativeness of world left-wing forces and parties, and thereby enhance their own influence. They must further strengthen unity, exchange, and communication, further strengthen organizational functions and operational mechanism construction, continuously improve working methods and approaches, and pursue unity at multiple levels, including the level of Marxist and left-wing parties, the level of trade union organizations, and the level of left-wing scholars and academia. They must also enhance the effectiveness of unity and cooperation to promote the continuous development of the world socialist cause. It can be said that “the future of world socialism depends on the effective joint action of the international proletariat.” (Notes and references omitted)

各国共产党和左翼组织还积极参加和组织抗议、罢工等社会运动,不断扩大左翼力量的影响力。近年来,随着欧美发达国家资本主义结构性危机持续演化并向各领域蔓延,欧美政坛政治动荡不断加剧,抗议、罢工等社会运动风起云涌,社会主义力量有了一定的发展机遇与空间。西方国家共产党积极参与其中,以扩大自身影响力,赢得新的发展。但世界社会主义和左翼力量的发展中也面临着右翼的挑战,美西方蔓延的政治经济危机本应为左翼力量的复兴提供了社会基础,西方国家共产党本应趁此机会获得大发展,但却因为各国共产党力量普遍弱小,影响力有限,导致右翼势力反倒在一些国家政坛上逐渐占据优势。许多国家共产党指导思想、理论主张不统一,几乎每个国家都有多个共产党,力量不凝聚、碎片化问题严重,党的纲领和政策、组织结构和运行方式不能很好适应各国社会结构的变化,一些国家共产党组织选举联盟、采取议会道路掌握政权的方式也收效不大,各国共产党的影响力亟待提升。对于世界左翼和社会主义力量而言,需要进行理论创新,不断统一思想,进一步增强党的号召力和凝聚力。要积极投身到世界上广大劳动群众的各种利益诉求活动中,加强世界左翼力量和政党的领导和代表性,以增强自身的影响力。要进一步加强联合、加强交流和沟通,进一步加强组织功能、运行机制建设,不断改进工作方式和方法,在马克思主义和左翼政党层面、工会组织层面、左翼学者学界层面等多个方面展开联合,并提升团结联合的效力,促进世界社会主义事业的不断发展。可以这么说,“世界社会主义的未来取决于国际无产阶级有效联合行动”。（注释、参考文献略）

(Author bios: Zhou Miao, faculty member and master’s supervisor at the School of Marxism, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and researcher and director of the Office for Research on Foreign Left-Wing Thought at the Institute of Marxism, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Liu Tingting, doctoral student at the University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

（作者简介：周淼,中国社会科学院大学马克思主义学院岗位教师、硕士生导师,中国社会科学院马克思主义研究院研究员、国外左翼思想研究室主任;刘婷婷,中国社会科学院大学博士研究生）

Online editor: Zhang Jian

网络编辑：张剑