Why the United States Supports Islamist Terrorist Forces

[Translation Note]

【译文说明】

On May 3, 2007, the American magazine *The New Yorker* and its website published an article by Seymour M. Hersh, America’s top investigative journalist, the man who exposed the My Lai Massacre in Vietnam, and winner of the 1970 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting, titled “The Redirection — Is the Administration’s new policy benefitting our enemies in the war on terrorism?” The article reveals that after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime, the rise of the Shia in Iraq objectively strengthened Iran’s influence in the Middle East. Therefore, the George W. Bush administration decided in early 2007 to take covert action to support Sunni extremist forces to eliminate Shia Iran, and this policy would lead to U.S. support for Sunni Muslim extremist groups sympathetic to al-Qaeda.

2007年5月3日，美国《纽约客》杂志及网站发表了美国顶尖调查记者、美军越南“美莱大屠杀”真相披露者、1970年的普利策国际报道奖获得者西摩·M·赫什的文章《重定向——美国政府的新政策将会帮助我们反恐战争中的敌人？》。文章披露，萨达姆政权被推翻后，什叶派在伊拉克的崛起客观上增强了伊朗的在中东的势力。因此小布什政权于2007年初就决定采取秘密行动，扶植逊尼派极端势力来消灭什叶派的伊朗，而这项政策将导致同情“基地组织”的逊尼派穆斯林极端主义团体得到美国的支持。

Since the July 2009 Ürümqi riots, the situation in Xinjiang has continuously deteriorated; since 2011, the Greater Middle East has fallen into sustained turmoil, followed by the outbreak of the Libyan War and the Syrian War; in 2014, Iraq again fell into crisis. In this series of major events, Sunni Islamist extremist forces have played a key role, while the United States has been the hidden hand behind the scenes. Seymour M. Hersh’s 2007 report is of great benefit to our in-depth understanding of the Middle East and world situation since 2007, and to recognizing the true nature of the United States. Huaxia Net (www.hxw.org.cn) invited relevant scholars to exclusively translate this article in full for the benefit of readers.

2009年七五事件以来新疆局势持续恶化；2011年以来大中东地区的陷入持续动荡，随后爆发了利比亚战争和叙利亚战争；2014年伊拉克又陷入危机……在这一系列重大事件中，伊斯兰逊尼派极端势力都起到关键作用，而美国则是幕后黑手。西摩·M·赫什的2007年的这篇报道对我们深入认识2007年以来的中东及世界局势，认清美国的本质大有裨益。华夏网（www.hxw.org.cn）邀请相关学者独家全文翻译此文，以飨读者。

The effort to contain Iran’s influence has drawn the United States into the tensions between Sunnis and Shia.

遏制伊朗影响力的努力使得美国卷入了逊尼派和什叶派之间的紧张关系。

In the past few months, as the situation in Iraq has deteriorated, the Bush administration — including both public diplomacy and covert operations — has undergone a major shift in its Middle East strategy. “The Redirection,” as some inside the White House call this new strategy. This strategy pushes the United States to become involved in the expanding sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shia Muslims in some regions, making the United States more inclined toward open confrontation with Iran.

过去几个月里，随着伊拉克形势的恶化，布什政府——包括公共外交和秘密行动，在中东战略上出现大转向。“重定向”，一些白宫内部人士如此称呼这个新战略。该战略推动美国在部分地区卷入不断扩大的逊尼派和什叶派穆斯林之间的宗派冲突，使得美国更加趋于与伊朗公开对抗。

The Bush administration has decided to destroy Shia-dominated Iran, which means the Bush administration has reconfigured its priorities in the Middle East. The administration has cooperated with the Sunni Saudi government in covert operations aimed at weakening Lebanon’s Hezbollah — a Shia organization supported by Iran. The United States has also participated in covert operations against Iran and its ally Syria. A byproduct of these activities is that Sunni Muslim extremist groups that have long adhered to Islamist radical thought, are hostile to the United States, and are sympathetic to al-Qaeda, will receive U.S. support.

布什政府已经决定摧毁什叶派为主体的伊朗，这意味着布什政府已经重新配置它在中东地区的优先事项。政府已经与逊尼派的沙特政府合作展开秘密行动，目的是削弱黎巴嫩真主党——这是由伊朗支持的什叶派组织。美国也参与了针对伊朗及其盟友叙利亚的秘密行动。这些活动的附带结果是，那些一直信奉伊斯兰激进思想、敌视美国、同情“基地组织”的逊尼派穆斯林极端主义团体将得到美国的支持。

The contradiction of the new strategy is that the vast majority of violence in Iraq is carried out by Sunnis, not Shia. But for the Bush administration, the greatest unanticipated negative consequence of the Iraq War is the growth of Iran’s influence: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad issued a provocative statement about destroying Israel and Iran’s right to develop a nuclear weapons program. Last week, its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, said on state television: “The reality in the Middle East shows that the arrogant front led by the United States and its allies in the Arab region will be the main loser in the region.”

新战略矛盾的地方在于，伊拉克绝大多数暴力活动是逊尼派干的，而不是什叶派。但对布什政府来说，伊拉克战争最大的未估计到的负面结果是伊朗势力的增长：伊朗总统艾哈迈迪·内贾德发布了一份关于摧毁以色列和伊朗有权发展核武器计划的挑衅声明。上周其最高宗教领袖阿亚图拉·赛义德·阿里·哈梅内伊在国家电视台说：“中东地区的现实显示了阿拉伯地区由美国及其盟友领导的狂妄自大的阵线将成为该地区主要失败者。”

After the 1979 revolution, a religious government came to power, and the United States broke with Iran and cultivated close relations with Sunni leaders, such as those in Sudan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. But this relationship became extremely complicated after 9/11, especially with the Saudis. Al-Qaeda is a Sunni organization, and most of its members come from Saudi Arabia. Before the invasion of Iraq, in 2003, neoconservative administration officials believed that a Shia pro-American government could effectively counterbalance Sunni extremist forces, because the vast majority of Iraq’s Shia were under the tyranny of Saddam Hussein. However, it became clear that they ignored intelligence warnings about the close relationship between Iraqi Shia leaders and Iran, with some having lived in exile in Iran for many years. Now, the White House is deeply troubled by the fact that Iran has established a close relationship with Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

1979年革命之后，宗教政府获得了权力，美国与伊朗决裂并与逊尼派领导人经营起了密切的关系，例如苏丹、埃及和沙特阿拉伯。但是这种关系在“911”之后变得异常复杂，尤其和沙特人之间。基地组织是逊尼派组织，其多数成员来自沙特阿拉伯。在入侵伊拉克之前，2003年新保守主义政府官员认为，一个什叶派的亲美政府可以有效制衡逊尼派极端势力，因为伊拉克绝大多数什叶派处于萨达姆·侯赛因的淫威之下。然而，显而易见的是，他们忽视了情报部门的警告，即伊拉克什叶派领导人与伊朗之间的密切关系，其中一些人曾在伊朗流亡多年。如今，令白宫倍感困扰的是，伊朗已经与什叶派政府总理努里·马利基建立了亲密的关系。

The general outline of the new U.S. policy has been widely speculated upon and publicly discussed. Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee made it public in January, Secretary of State Rice stated that “the administration has carried out a new strategic positioning in the Middle East,” used to distinguish between “reformers” and “extremists”; she pointed out that Sunni regimes are the moderate center, while Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah are at “the other pole” (Syria’s Sunni majority is controlled by the Alawite sect). She said that Iran and Syria “have made their choice, and they have chosen ‘instability.’”

美国新政策的大体内容被广泛地猜测和公开讨论。参议院外交关系委员会在1月份将之公诸于世之前，国务卿赖斯表示“政府在中东地区进行了新的战略定位”，用以区分“改革者”和“极端主义者”；她指出，逊尼派政权是温和的中心，而伊朗、叙利亚和真主党则处于“另一极”（叙利亚的逊尼派多数被阿拉维教派所控制）。她说，伊朗和叙利亚“已经做出了他们的选择，他们选择了‘不稳定’”

However, the core part of the “Redirection” strategy has not been made public. According to several current and former government officials, in some cases, through orders or funding to the Saudis, and through covert operations that bypass normal congressional appropriation procedures, it has been kept secret.

然而，“重定向”战略的核心部分并未公之于众。据几位现任的和前任的政府官员透漏，在某些情况下，通过对沙特人下达命令或提供资金，以及绕开正常的国会拨款程序的秘密行动一直都是保密的。

A senior member of the House Appropriations Committee told me that he had heard of such a new strategy, but he and his colleagues did not know the details. “We have not been told anything,” he said. “When we ask what is being done, they reply, ‘Nothing.’ When we ask specific questions, they answer, ‘We’ll tell you later.’ How frustrating this is.”

一位众议院拨款委员会资深委员告诉我，他曾听说过有这么个新战略，但是他和他的同事并不了解详细的情况。“我们未被告知任何内容，”他说。“我们询问正在干什么时，他们回答说‘没什么’。”当我们就具体问题发问时，他们回答“以后再告诉你。这多么令人沮丧啊。”

The key figures in “The Redirection” are Vice President Dick Cheney, National Security Advisor Elliott Abrams, the former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq (now U.S. Representative to the United Nations) Zalmay Khalilzad, and Saudi National Security Advisor Prince Bandar bin Sultan. Although on the surface Rice is deeply involved in this strategic restructuring, according to former and current officials — the real secret mastermind behind the scenes is Cheney (Cheney’s office and the White House declined to comment on this; the Pentagon did not respond directly to the question, only stating that the United States has no plans to go to war with Iran).

“重新定向”的关键人物是副总统迪克·切尼、国家安全顾问埃利奥特·艾勃拉姆斯、已经离任的美国驻伊拉克大使（现美国驻联合国代表）哈利勒扎德，沙特国家安全顾问班达尔·本·苏丹亲王。尽管从表面上看赖斯深深地卷入了这场战略重构，但据前任和现任官员透露——真正的幕后秘密主导者是切尼（切尼办公室和白宫拒绝对此发表评论；五角大楼并未对该问题作出正面回应，只是表示：美国尚未有对伊朗发动战争的计划）。

The shift in U.S. policy has facilitated strategic cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, largely because both countries view Iran as an existing threat. Saudi Arabia and Israel have begun negotiations. The Saudis believe that the more stable Israel and Palestine are, the smaller Iran’s strategic balancing power will be.

美国的政策转向促成了沙特阿拉伯和以色列之间的战略合作，在很大程度上因为这两个国家都将伊朗视为现存威胁。沙特和以色列开始进行谈判。沙特人相信，以色列和巴勒斯坦越稳定，伊朗的战略平衡力量就会越小。

The new strategy is “a major shift in U.S. policy — a sea change,” said an American advisor with close ties to Israel. Sunni countries “are stunned by the Shia resurgence, and resentment is growing over our bet on the Shia in Iraq.” “We cannot reverse the Shia advantage in Iraq, but we can control them.”

新战略是“美国政策的一次重要转变——堪称一个翻天覆地的变化”，一位与以色列关系密切的美国顾问表示。逊尼派国家“被什叶派的回潮吓得目瞪口呆，而在伊拉克对我们向什叶派下注的怨恨日益增长”，“我们不能逆转什叶派在伊拉克的优势，但是我们可以控制他们。”

Vali Nasr, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who has written about Iran, Iraq, and the Shia, told me: “There is currently a debate within the administration about who is the primary danger — Iran or Sunni radical forces.” He added, “The Saudis and some officials in the administration believe the greatest threat is Iran, and the Sunnis are merely a secondary enemy. This is a victory for the Saudi line.”

对外关系委员会的高级研究员、曾经撰写过关于伊朗、伊拉克和什叶派的著述的瓦利·纳斯尔告诉我：“目前政府内部关于谁是最主要的危险——是伊朗，还是逊尼派激进力量，存在争论”。他还说，“沙特人和政府里的一些官员认为最大的威胁是伊朗，而逊尼派仅仅是次要的敌人。这是沙特路线的一次胜利。”

Martin Indyk — a senior State Department official and director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, who served as U.S. ambassador to Israel during the Clinton administration — believes that “the Middle East is descending into a harsh Sunni-Shia cold war.” In his view, it is unclear whether the White House fully realizes the strategic implications of its new policy. He said: “The White House is not only doubling down in Iraq, it is doubling down across the entire region. This will make the situation very complicated. Everything is turned upside down.”

马丁·因迪克——美国国务院高级官员、布鲁金斯研究院中东政策研究中心主任，曾经在克林顿政府时期担任以色列大使。他认为“中东地区正在陷入一场严酷的逊尼派-什叶派的冷战”。在他看来，尚不清楚白宫是否充分意识到其新政策的战略意义。他说：“白宫不仅在伊拉克押上了双倍赌注”“在整个地区也押上了双倍赌注。这会让形势变得十分复杂。一切都颠倒了”。

The government’s intention to draw Iran into its strategic objectives has complicated the tactics for winning the Iraq War. Patrick Clausen, an Iran expert and deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believes that the close relationship between the U.S. government and moderate or radical Sunni forces will inject “fear” into the government of Prime Minister Maliki, “and make him worry that the Sunnis will win” the Iraqi civil war. Clausen argues that this would give Maliki the impetus to cooperate with the U.S. government in suppressing radical Shiite militias, such as Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army.

政府把伊朗引入战略目标的意图使赢得伊拉克战争的策略变得复杂化。帕特里克·克劳森——伊朗问题研究专家和华盛顿近东问题研究副主任。他认为，美国政府与温和或者激进逊尼派之间的密切关系会把“恐惧”注入马利基总理的政府，“并且让他担心逊尼派将会赢得”伊拉克内战。克劳森认为，这会给马利基同美国政府联合镇压激进什叶派军队以动力，例如萨德尔的迈赫迪军。

Nevertheless, at this moment, the United States still relies on cooperation with Iraqi Shiite leaders. The Mahdi Army may openly oppose the United States, but other Shiite militias still count on an alliance with America. Both al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army and the White House support Maliki. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley has suggested that the government peel Maliki away from his more radical Shiite allies, basing his power on moderate Sunnis and Kurds. But the current situation is moving in the opposite direction. As the Iraqi army continues to confront insurgents, the strength of Shiite militias has steadily grown.

尽管如此，此刻，美国仍然依赖与伊拉克什叶派领导人的合作。迈赫迪军可能会与美国公开对立，但其他什叶派民兵还会指望与美国结盟。萨德尔的迈赫迪军和白宫都会支持马利基。国家安全局顾问斯蒂芬·哈德利，建议政府将马利基与其更为激进的什叶派同盟剥离，以将其权力建立在温和逊尼派和库尔德人基础上。但是目前形势却在朝着相反的方向发展。随着伊拉克军队持续与叛军对抗，什叶派民兵的力量持续稳定增长。

Flynt Leverett, a former National Security Council official in the Bush administration, told me that this new policy toward Iraq is “neither coincidence nor irony.” “The government is creating the impression for the public that, for U.S. interests in Iraq, Iran is more dangerous and more provocative than the Sunni insurgents. But if you look at the actual casualty figures, the Sunnis are the biggest threat to the United States.” Leverett said this is a provocative step to increase pressure on Iran. He believes that, as a matter of course, the Iranians will react, giving the United States an opportunity to strike them.

前布什政府国家安全委员会官员佛林特·莱弗里特告诉我，这项针对伊拉克的新政策“既不是巧合也不是讽刺”。“政府正在给公众造成这样一个印象——对于美国在伊拉克的利益来说，伊朗比逊尼派叛军更危险和更具煽动性。但如果你看一下实际伤亡人数，逊尼派才是美国最大的威胁。”莱弗里特说，这是对伊朗增加压力的鼓吹性步骤。他认为，按照常理伊朗人将会有所反应，这就给美国打击他们提供了机会。

President George W. Bush articulated this approach in a speech on January 10: “Two authoritarian states”—Iran and Syria—“allow terrorists and insurgents to move through their territory into and out of Iraq.” “Iran provides material support for attacks on American troops. We will disrupt their attacks on us. We will cut off support from Iran and Syria. We will find and destroy the networks that continue to provide weapons support and training for Iraqi insurgents.”

乔治·布什总统在1月10日的一次演讲中阐明了这种手段：“两个专制国家”——伊朗和叙利亚——“允许恐怖和叛乱分子通过其领土进出伊拉克”“伊朗为其袭击美国军队提供物质支持。我们将打乱他们对我们的攻击。我们将切断来自伊朗和叙利亚的支援。我们将找到并破坏持续为伊拉克叛军提供武器支持和训练的网络。”

In the following weeks, a wave of accusations from the U.S. government emerged, blaming Iran for its involvement in the Iraq War. On February 11, reports indicated that the government had intercepted sophisticated explosive devices in Iraq allegedly originating from Iran. According to government sources, the bleak situation in Iraq is essentially not due to failures in government planning and execution, but because of Iranian interference.

在接下来的几周时间里，出现了来自美国政府指责伊朗卷入伊拉克战争的声浪。2月11日，有报道称政府在伊拉克截获了据说来自伊朗的精良爆炸装置。根据政府的消息，伊拉克的暗淡形势本质上并非是由于政府计划和执行的失败，而是因为伊朗的干涉。

The U.S. military has arrested and interrogated hundreds of Iranians in Iraq. “Last August, one line from the military was to compete as much as possible for Iranians in Iraq,” according to a former senior official at an official think tank. “We arrested 500 people at one time. We interrogated these people and extracted information from them. The White House’s goal is to create a pretext—that the Iranians are behind the insurgency, they always do this—that Iran is the real killer of Americans.” A Pentagon consultant confirmed that in recent months, hundreds of Iranians have been captured by U.S. forces. But he also told me that these individuals include humanitarian and reconstruction workers, who were “quickly released” after interrogation.

美国军方逮捕和审问了数百名在伊拉克的伊朗人。“去年8月，军队的一种说法是，尽可能争夺在伊拉克的伊朗人”，据一位前官方智库高级官员说，“我们一次就逮捕了500人。我们审讯这些人并从他们口中套取消息。白宫的目标是制造这样一个口实——伊朗人在背后煽动叛乱，他们总是这样干——伊朗是杀死美国人的真正凶手。”五角大楼的一位顾问证实，在最近几个月，有数百名伊朗人被美国军队捕获。但是他也告诉我，这些人中也包括人道主义者和援建工人，他们在被审讯之后“很快就被释放了”。

“We have no plans to go to war with Iran,” newly appointed Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced on February 2. According to current and former U.S. intelligence and military officials, covert operations in Lebanon are also targeting Iran. U.S. military and special operations teams have escalated intelligence-gathering operations against Iran. According to a Pentagon consultant on terrorism and a former senior government intelligence official, U.S. military and special operations teams have crossed the border to track Iranian agents coming from Iraq.

“我们没有对伊朗发动战争的计划”新任国防部长罗伯特·盖茨2月2日宣布。根据现任和前任的美国情报和军队官员透漏，在黎巴嫩的秘密行动同时也剑指伊朗。美国军队和特别行动小组将搜集伊朗情报的行动升级。根据五角大楼一位研究恐怖主义的顾问也是前政府情报高级官员透漏，美国军队和特别行动小组已经穿越边界追踪来自伊拉克的伊朗特工。

Senator Joseph Biden, a Democrat from Delaware, questioned Rice at a Senate session in January, challenging the plan to pursue across the Iranian and Syrian borders. Rice replied: “Obviously, the President does not overstep the law to protect our troops, but there is indeed a plan to destroy intelligence networks in Iraq.” Rice added: “I think every American can understand—the American people and I believe that Congress expects the President to make the necessary efforts to protect our troops.”

特拉华州民主党参议员约瑟夫·拜登向在1月份参议院会议中露面的赖斯发问，质疑穿越伊朗和叙利亚边境施行追捕的计划。赖斯回答：“很显然，总统并没有僭越法规保护我们的军队，但是确实有击毁伊拉克情报网的计划”。赖斯补充道：“我认为每个美国人都能理解——美国人民和我都认为，国会希望总统为保护我们的军队做出必要的努力”。

Rice’s ambiguous response drew criticism from Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, a Republican: “Madam Secretary, some of us remember Cambodia in 1970. At that time, our government lied to the American people, saying ‘we did not cross the border into Cambodia.’ But the fact is we did. I happen to know something about it, and I want to say it at this session. Therefore, Madam Secretary, when you put emotion into policy decisions, it is very, very dangerous.”

赖斯模棱两可的回答引发了内布拉斯加州的参议员、一名共和党人——查克·黑格尔的批评：“国务卿女士，我们中的一些人还记得1970年的柬埔寨。当时我们的政府向美国人民撒谎说‘我们并未穿过边界进入柬埔寨’。而事实是我们确实那么做了。我碰巧知道点什么，并且想在这样一个会议上说一下。因此，国务卿女士，当你把情感放入政策决策时，那是非常非常危险的。”

The government’s focus on Iran’s role in Iraq is closely linked to its long-standing vigilance over Iran’s nuclear program. On January 14, Fox News reported that Cheney warned of the possibility that, in the coming years, “a nuclear-armed Iran, straddling global oil supplies, would not only have the ability to influence the global economy but also threaten neighboring countries and other nations around the world through terrorist organizations and nuclear weapons.” He added: “If you talk to people in the Gulf states, or Saudis, or Israelis, or Jordanians, you’ll find the entire region is worried… The Iranian threat is rising.”

政府对伊朗在伊拉克所扮演角色的关注，与其长期警惕的伊朗核计划密切相关。1月14日的福克斯新闻报道，切里警告了这种可能性，即在未来几年中“一个拥有核武器和跨越全球石油供应的伊朗，不仅有能力影响全球经济，还将通过恐怖主义组织及核武器威胁邻国和世界上的其他国家。”他补充说：“如果你和海湾国家的人、或者沙特人、或者以色列人、或者约旦人交谈，将会发现整个地区都处于担忧之中……伊朗的威胁正在上升。”

The government is studying a new batch of intelligence on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Several current and former U.S. officials told me that the intelligence comes from Israeli agents in Iran, indicating that Iran has developed a three-stage solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering small warheads—each with limited accuracy—within European range. The reliability of this intelligence is still under debate.

政府正在研究一批新的关于伊朗核武器计划的情报。几位现任和前任美国官员告诉我，情报来自伊朗的以色列特工，情报内容表明伊朗已经发展了一种三级固体燃料的洲际导弹，该导弹有能力发射一些小的弹头——每个弹头都具有限的精度——在欧洲范围内。关于这个情报的可靠性尚在讨论之中。

There is widespread controversy over using unverified dangerous information from intelligence agencies—that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction—as a justification for the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Some members of Congress have shown caution regarding the intelligence community’s alarm over Iran; at a Senate session on February 14, Hillary Clinton stated: “We have learned lessons from the Iraq conflict, and we must apply these lessons to the growing crisis with Iran. Because, Mr. President, we must be wary of making decisions based on intelligence that later turns out to be false.”

关于将情报部门提供的一个未经验证的危险信息——伊拉克掌握大规模杀伤性武器——作为美国入侵伊拉克的理由，存在普遍争议。一些国会议员对于情报部门拉响的伊朗警报表现出审慎的态度；在2月14日的参议院会议中，希拉里·克林顿表示：“我们从伊拉克冲突中汲取教训，我们必须把这些经验教训用于应对日益增长的伊朗危机中。因为，总统先生，我们必须警惕不是基于后来被证实是错误的情报做出决定。”

Nevertheless, the Pentagon continues to plan for sustained intensive bombing of Iran. This planning began last year, under the direction of the President. In recent months, a former intelligence official told me that a special planning group has been established within the office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, specifically tasked with implementing bombing operations against Iran within 24 hours, following the President’s orders.

不过，五角大楼还是在做持续密集轰炸伊朗的计划。这一计划始于去年，在总统指引的方向下。最近几个月，一位前任情报官员告诉我，一个特殊的规划小组已经在美国参谋长联席会议办公室成立，该小组专门负责遵照总统的命令，在24小时之内对伊朗实施轰炸。

Last month, an Air Force targeting consultant, also a Pentagon consultant on terrorism, told me that the Iran planning group has received new tasks: to lock onto targets in Iran that might provide weapons and combat training to Iraq. Previously, the group’s operational objectives had been to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and overthrow the Iranian regime.

上个月，一位空军关于目标方面的顾问，同时也是五角大楼关于恐怖主义的顾问告诉我，伊朗计划小组已经接受了新的任务：锁定伊朗可能向伊拉克提供武器和战斗人员训练的目标。此前，该小组的行动目标一直是破坏伊朗核设施和颠覆伊朗政权。

Two carrier battle groups—the *Eisenhower* and the *Stennis*—are now in the Arabian Sea. There are indications that their original plan was to take leave earlier this spring, but due to uncertainty about the military’s future operations, they must remain on station until new carriers arrive (war games have shown that a tactic the Iranians have practiced in the past—swarming a carrier with large numbers of small boats—leaves the carrier vulnerable; the carrier has only limited maneuverability in the narrow Strait of Hormuz far from Iran’s southern waters). A former senior intelligence official said the current contingency plan is to launch an attack this spring. He added, however, that senior officers on the Joint Chiefs of Staff are counting on the White House “not to be stupid enough to do this with Iraq on the table, because it would be a problem for the Republican Party in 2008.”

两个航母战斗群——艾森豪威尔和斯坦尼森——现在正在阿拉伯海。有消息表明，他们的原有计划是，在今年春天的早些时候放假，但是由于军队未来行动尚不确定，他们必须原地等待，直到有新的航母到达（战争游戏已经表明，伊朗人过去实践过的一种新技术——用大量小船包围航母，在这种包围下航母是脆弱的；航母在远离伊朗南部海域的狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡只有有限的机动性）。一位前情报部门高级官员说，当前的应急计划是，在这个春天进行一次攻击。他补充道，然而，参谋长联席会议的高级军官指望白宫“不要愚蠢到在面对伊拉克问题时这样做，这将给2008年的共和党出个难题。”

Prince Bandar’s Game

班达尔亲王的游戏

The administration’s effort to weaken Iran in the Middle East relies heavily on Saudi Arabia and Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the Saudi national security adviser. Bandar served as Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States for twenty-two years, until 2005. He has long maintained good friendships with President Bush and Vice President Cheney. In his new post, he continues to enjoy close personal ties with them. Senior White House officials have made numerous visits to Saudi Arabia, some of them secret.

政府在中东地区削弱伊朗主要靠沙特阿拉伯和班达尔亲王，后者是沙特国家安全顾问。班达尔亲王曾经当过22年的沙特驻美国大使，直到2005年卸任。他长期与总统布什和副总统切尼保持良好的友谊。在他的新位置上，他继续与他们保持良好的私交。白宫高级官员曾经赴沙特阿拉伯访问多次，其中的一些是秘密进行的。

In November 2006, Cheney made a surprise visit to Saudi Arabia and met with King Abdullah and Prince Bandar. According to *Time* magazine, the Saudi king warned Cheney that if the United States withdrew from Iraq, Saudi Arabia would support its Sunni brethren there. A European intelligence official told me that during this meeting the Saudis expressed their fear of “the rise of the Shia.” In response, the Saudis began to use their leverage—money.

2006年11月，切尼突访沙特并与阿卜杜拉国王和班达尔亲王会晤。据《时代周刊》报道，沙特国王警告切尼，如果美国从伊拉克撤军，沙特阿拉伯将会支持该国在伊拉克的逊尼派同胞。一位欧洲情报官员告诉我，这次会谈中沙特人表达了对于“什叶派崛起”的忧惧。作为回应，沙特人开始使用他们的杠杆——金钱。

Bandar has built a solid power base within the competitive royal family through years of close ties with the United States, relations that are too important to the Saudis. Bandar’s successor was Prince Turki al-Faisal; Turki left the post after eighteen months and was replaced by Adel al-Jubeir—a Bandar associate. A former Saudi diplomat told me that during Turki’s tenure, “he was unhappy when he realized how close Bandar’s relationship was with senior White House officials.” But, he added, “I don’t think Bandar will leave on his own.” Although Turki disliked Bandar’s presence, Bandar indeed played a significant role for the Saudis in countering the Shia’s expanding power in the Middle East.

班达尔依靠与美国数年的亲密关系在充满竞争的王室建立起稳固的权力基础，同美国的关系对沙特人来说实在太重要了。班达尔的继任是图尔基·阿尔·费萨尔亲王；图尔基18个月后离任，并由阿德尔·阿·朱贝尔接任——一位班达尔的同僚。一位沙特前外交官告诉我，在图尔基任期内，当他意识到了班达尔与白宫高级官员过密的关系，对此感到很不高兴”。但是，他补充道：“我并不认为班达尔会自己离开。”尽管图尔基不喜欢班达尔的存在，但班达尔确实为沙特对付在中东地区权力不断扩散的什叶派发挥了重要作用。

The Shia-Sunni split dates back to a painful schism in the seventh century—over who should succeed the Prophet Muhammad. Sunnis ruled the medieval empires and the Ottoman Empire, while Shia have traditionally been seen as “outsiders.” Worldwide, 90 percent of Muslims are Sunni, but Shia form the majority in Iran, Iraq, and Bahrain, and the largest Muslim community in Lebanon is also Shia. The emergence of a “Shia crescent” in this highly unstable and oil-rich region has aroused concern among the West and Sunnis, and increased Iran’s geopolitical weight.

什叶派和逊尼派的分歧可以追溯到公元7世纪的一次痛苦分裂——关于谁该继承先知默罕默德。逊尼派统治着中世纪帝国和奥斯曼帝国，什叶派则在传统上传统上被视为“外人”。在世界范围内，90%的穆斯林都是逊尼派，但是什叶派构成了伊朗、伊拉克和巴林的主体，同时黎巴嫩最大的穆斯林团体也是什叶派。在这个极不稳定的和石油丰富地区，“什叶派新月带”的出现引发了西方和逊尼派的关注，也增加了伊朗的地缘政治分量。

Friedrich Hof, a retired military officer and Middle East expert, told me: “The Saudis still see the world through Ottoman-era eyes, where Sunni Muslims dominate and Shia Muslims are at the bottom.” If Bandar can push U.S. policy to tilt toward the Sunnis, Hof added, it would greatly enhance his standing in the royal family.

弗里德里·克霍夫，一位退休的军官，也是一位中东问题研究专家告诉我：“沙特人仍然用奥斯曼帝国时代的眼光看世界，即逊尼派穆斯林称雄而什叶派穆斯林处于最底层。”如果班达尔能促成美国政策对逊尼派的倾斜，弗里德里·克霍夫补充道，那将大大提高他在王室的地位。

The Saudis fear that Iran will not only upset the balance in the Middle East but also upset the balance within the Saudi state. In Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province—the country’s main oil-producing region—there is a large Shia population; sectarian tensions are high there. The Saudi royal family believes that Iran and local Shia are behind many terrorist attacks inside the kingdom. Vali Nasr argues: “Today, the only force capable of controlling Iran’s military”—the Iraqi military—“has been destroyed by the United States. Iran now has nuclear strike capability and a standing army of 450,000.” (Saudi Arabia has only 75,000 standing troops.)

沙特人担心伊朗不仅会打破中东地区的平衡，也会打破沙特国家内部的平衡。在沙特的东部省份——沙特主要的石油产区，聚集着大量什叶派；教派冲突在该地区高度紧张。沙特王室相信，伊朗与当地的什叶派是王国内多起恐怖主义袭击的幕后黑手。瓦利·纳斯尔认为：瓦利·纳斯尔认为认为“今日，唯一有能力控制伊朗的军队”——伊拉克军队——“遭到了美国的破坏。目前伊朗有核打击能力，并且有45万常驻军。”（而沙特阿拉伯只有7.5万常驻军）

Nasr continued: “The Saudis have considerable financial means and close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist groups”—Sunni extremists who view Shia as apostates. “To deal with Iran, the Saudis are willing to use the worst elements of Muslim radicals. But once you let them out of the box, you can never put them back.”

纳斯尔继续说：“沙特人有相当大的金融手段，并且与穆斯林兄弟会和萨拉菲派关系密切”——逊尼派的极端分子将什叶派视为叛教者。“为了对付伊朗，沙特人不惜动用穆斯林激进分子中最坏的力量。然而，一但把他们从盒子里放出来，就再也不可能放回去了。”

The Saudi royal family is a patron of Sunni extremist groups, but also their target—they oppose the royal family’s corruption and hereditary rule. The princes are betting that as long as they continue to support religious schools and charities linked to extremists, the government will not be overthrown. The new U.S. administration’s policy is highly dependent on the outcome of this gamble.

沙特王室是逊尼派极端分子的赞助人，但也是其攻击目标——他们反对王室家族的腐败和世袭制。亲王打赌，只要他们继续支持宗教学校和与极端分子联系的慈善机构，政府就不会被推翻。美国政府的新政策高度取决于这场博弈的胜负。

Nasr compared the current situation to the first emergence of al-Qaeda. In the 1980s and early 1990s, the Saudi government secretly funded U.S. CIA operations against the Soviet war in Afghanistan. Hundreds of Saudi youths were sent to the border regions of Pakistan, where they set up religious schools, training camps, and recruitment networks. Of course, some of them were Osama bin Laden and his associates, who founded al-Qaeda in 1988.

纳斯尔将现在的形势与“基地”组织第一次出现的时候进行比较。在1980年代和19世纪初期，沙特政府秘密出资支持美国中央情报局反对苏联在阿富汗的战争。数以百计的沙特年轻人，被派往巴基斯坦边境地区，他们在那里开办宗教学校、训练基地，和招募人员。当然，他们其中的一部分人就是1988年创立基地组织的乌萨姆·本拉登及其同伙。

At this point, a U.S. government adviser told me that Bandar and other Saudis had assured the White House that “they would keep an eye on the religious fundamentalists. The message they gave us was, ‘They started this movement, and we can control it.’ It’s not that we don’t want the Salafists to throw bombs; it’s who they throw them at—we want them aimed at Hezbollah, Sadr’s Mahdi Army, Iran, and Syria—if they continue to cooperate with Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran.”

这时候，一位美国政府顾问告诉我，班达尔以及其他沙特人已经向白宫保证“他们会盯紧宗教原旨主义者。他们给我们传达的讯息是‘他们发起了这个运动，而我们能控制住它。’这并不是我们不想让沙拉菲派扔炸弹；而是他们扔向谁——我们希望是真主党、萨德尔的迈赫迪军、伊朗，以及叙利亚——如果他们继续与黎巴嫩真主党和伊朗合作。”

The Saudis say that, from the perspective of the Saudi people, following the United States in challenging Iran is a political gamble: in the Arab world, Bandar is already seen as too close to the Bush administration. “We have two nightmares,” the former diplomat told me. “Iran having a nuclear bomb and the United States attacking Iran. I would rather the Israelis bomb the Iranians, because then we could blame them. But if the Americans do it, we will be the ones blamed.”

沙特人说，按照沙特人民的观点，追随美国挑战伊朗是政治冒险：在阿拉伯世界看来，班达尔已经与布什政府太密切了。“我们有两大噩梦”，这位前外交官告诉我，“伊朗拥有核弹和美国攻击伊朗。我宁愿以色列人轰炸伊朗人，那样的话我们会指责他们。但如果美国人这么做，遭到指责的将是我们。”

In 2006, the Saudis, the Israelis, and the Bush administration had already developed a series of informal understandings on a new strategic direction. A U.S. government adviser told me that at least four main factors were at play. First, to ensure Israel’s security, Washington, the Saudis, and other Sunni states would jointly target Iran.

2006年，沙特人、以色列人以及布什政府已经发表了一系列新战略方向的非正式理解。美国政府顾问告诉我，至少有4个主要因素参与作用。首先，要确保以色列安全，华盛顿、沙特阿拉伯人和其他逊尼国家要共同针对伊朗。

Second, Saudi Arabia would urge Hamas (the Palestinian Islamist party backed by Iran) to reduce its opposition to the Israeli incursion and begin a series of power-sharing talks with Fatah (the more secular Palestinian organization) (in February, the Saudis acted as mediators in negotiations between the two factions. However, Israel and the United States were dissatisfied with the terms reached).

第二，沙特将敦促哈马斯（得到了伊朗支持的巴勒斯坦伊斯兰党）减少反对以色列入侵的行动，并且与法塔赫（更世俗化的巴勒斯坦组织）开始一系列分享领导权的对话（在2月，沙特人充当了两派谈判的中间人。然而，以色列和美国对达成的条款不满）。

Third, the Bush administration’s direct cooperation with Sunni states offset Shia dominance in the region.

第三，布什政府与逊尼派国家的直接合作抵消了什叶派在该地区的优势。

Fourth, the Saudi government, with Washington’s approval, would provide funding and logistical support to opposition forces to weaken the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Israelis believed that putting pressure on the Assad government in this way would make it more moderate and more willing to negotiate. Syria is a key conduit for weapons shipments to Hezbollah. The Saudi government was in dispute with Syria over the 2005 assassination in Beirut of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, for which the Saudis held Syria responsible. Hariri was a Sunni billionaire with close ties to the Saudi regime and Prince Bandar (a UN investigation found Syrian involvement in the assassination but lacked direct evidence; another investigation by an international tribunal is currently planned).

第四，沙特政府，在得到华盛顿认可下，将为反对派提供资金和后勤援助以削弱叙利亚总统巴什尔·阿萨德的政府。以色列人认为，通过这种方式对阿萨德政府施加压力会使其更加温和和更乐意接受谈判。叙利亚是向真主党输送武器的重要通道。沙特政府与叙利亚人在黎巴嫩前总理拉菲克·哈里里2005年在贝鲁特被暗杀的问题上存在争执，沙特政府认为叙利亚人需对此事负责。哈里里是一个逊尼派亿万富翁，与沙特政权和班达尔亲王关系密切（一项联合国调查显示，叙利亚人参与了暗杀，但是拿不出直接证据；目前有还另一个由国际法庭进行的调查计划）。

Patrick Clausen of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy described the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the White House as a major breakthrough. “The Saudis understand that if they want the U.S. government to give more generous political aid to Palestine, then they must persuade the Arab countries to give more generous aid to the Israelis,” Clausen told me. Who is taking the greater risk—us, or the Saudis? America’s position in the Middle East was once very low; the Saudis took us in. We have to repay that.

华盛顿“近东政策研究所”的帕特里克·克劳森将沙特与白宫的合作描述为一个重大突破。“沙特人明白，如果他们想让美国政府给与巴勒斯坦更加慷慨的政治援助，那么他们就必须说服阿拉伯国家给与以色列人更加慷慨的援助。”克劳森告诉我。谁在冒更大的风险——我们，还是沙特人？美国在中东的地位一度是非常低的，沙特人接纳了我们。我们得回报。”

A Pentagon adviser held a different view. He believed that the administration’s turn to Bandar was a “step backward,” because the administration had already realized that the failure of the Iraq War left the Middle East still to be contended for.

一位五角大楼顾问则有不同的观点。他认为，政府转向班达尔是个“倒退”，因为政府已经意识到，伊拉克战争的失败使中东有待努力争取。

Lebanese jihadists

黎巴嫩圣战者

After Iran, the focus of U.S.-Saudi relations is Lebanon. Saudi Arabia is deeply involved in the U.S. government’s support plan for the Lebanese government. Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora struggles to protect his power against the sustained resistance led by Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a Shiite organization whose leader is Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah is estimated to have 2,000 to 3,000 active fighters and several thousand peripheral personnel.

排在伊朗之后，美国-沙特关系的焦点是黎巴嫩。沙特深深卷入了美国政府对黎巴嫩政府的支持计划。黎巴嫩总理福阿德·西尼乌拉挣扎着保护自己的权力，对抗真主党领导的持续反抗力量。真主党是什叶派组织，其领导人是哈桑·纳斯鲁拉。真主党据估计有2,000到3,000名活跃的战斗人员和数千人的外围人员。

In 1997, Hezbollah was placed on the U.S. State Department’s list of terrorist organizations. The organization has been implicated in the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, in which 241 servicemen died. The organization has also been accused of kidnapping Americans, including the death in captivity of the CIA station chief in Lebanon, and of killing a UN mission naval captain. Nasrallah denies his organization’s involvement in these incidents. In some eyes, Nasrallah is a hardened terrorist; he has even stated that Israel has no right to exist as a state. In the Arab world, especially among Shiites, Nasrallah is seen as a resistance leader who withstood the 33-day war launched by Israel last summer, while Siniora is a weak political leader who relies on U.S. support and cannot even persuade Bush to demand that Israel end its bombing of Lebanon.

1997年，真主党就上了美国国务院的恐怖主义名单。该组织牵连进了1983年贝鲁特海军陆战队军营爆炸案，在这起案件中，有241名军人死亡。该组织也被指控绑架美国人，包括囚禁致死美国中央情报局黎巴嫩站站长，以及杀害一名联合国特派团海军上校。纳斯鲁拉否认其组织卷入了上述事件。在一些人看来，纳斯鲁拉是一名死硬恐怖主义分子，他甚至表示，以色列无权作为一个国家存在。在阿拉伯世界中，特别是在什叶派眼中，纳斯鲁拉作为抵抗运动的领袖承受住了去年夏天以色列发动的33天战争，而西尼乌拉则是一位孱弱的政治领导人，只能依靠美国的支持，而却甚至无力说服布什要求以色列结束对黎巴嫩的轰炸。

In the summer of 2006, Bush publicly pledged $1 billion in aid to the Siniora government. In January, a donor conference organized by the United States in Paris raised $8 billion in donations, of which $1 billion came from Saudi Arabia. The United States also pledged over $200 million in military aid and $40 million in domestic security assistance to the Siniora government.

2006年夏天，布什已经公开承诺给西尼乌拉政府10亿美元的援助。1月份，在巴黎由美国组织的捐赠会募集到了80亿捐款，其中来自沙特的有10亿之多。美国还承诺会给予西尼乌拉政府超过2亿美元的军事援助和4,000万美元的国内安全援助资金。

According to former senior intelligence officials and U.S. government advisers, the United States also provides covert support to the Siniora government. The former senior intelligence official said: “We have a plan to strengthen Sunni forces to resist Shiite influence, and in this plan, we spend as much money as possible.” The problem is that such money “always ends up costing more than you think.” He said, “In this process, we always end up funding some bad actors who could bring unintended consequences. We don’t have the ability to get receipts from the people we like and avoid those we don’t like. This carries very high risks.”

据前高级情报官员和美国政府顾问透露，美国也给予西尼乌拉政府以暗中支持。这位前高级情报官员说：“我们有一个增强逊尼派力量抵抗什叶派影响力的计划，在这个计划中，我们会尽可能地多撒钱”。问题在于，这样的钱“总是花得比你想象的还多”。他说，“在这个过程中，我们总是资助一些潜在的会带来意想不到后果的坏家伙。我们没有能力从我们喜欢的人那里获得付款凭证，以及避开我们不喜欢的人。这具有很高的风险。”

American, European, and Arab officials I spoke with told me that the Siniora government and its allies have agreed to help keep the growing Sunni militant groups around the Bekaa Valley in northern Lebanon and the Palestinian refugee camps in the south under their control. These groups, though small, can serve as a buffer against Hezbollah; at the same time, they have ideological ties to al-Qaeda.

与我交谈的美国、欧洲和阿拉伯官员告诉我，西尼乌拉政府及其同盟已经同意提供帮助，以使在黎巴嫩北部贝卡谷地和南部的巴勒斯坦难民营周围日益壮大的逊尼派激进团体处于其控制之下。这些团体，尽管小，但可以视为对真主党的一个缓冲；同时，他们与基地组织有意识形态联系。

In my conversations, a former Saudi diplomat condemned Hezbollah for trying to “hijack the state,” but he also opposed Lebanese and Saudi sponsorship of Sunni jihadist organizations in Lebanon. “The Salafists are detestable and loathsome, and I am very opposed to colluding with them,” he said. “They hate the Shiites, but they hate the Americans even more. If you try to control them, they will also want to control us. The outcome will be ugly.”

在和我交谈的过程中，前沙特外交官谴责真主党试图“劫持国家”，但是他也反对黎巴嫩和沙特对在黎巴嫩的逊尼派圣战组织进行赞助。“沙拉菲派是可恶的和遭人讨厌的，我非常反对与他们勾勾搭搭的做法”，他说。“他们恨什叶派，但他们更恨美国人。如果你想去制服他们，他们也会想控制我们。事情的结果将会很难看。”

Alastair Crooke, who served nearly 30 years in Britain’s MI6 and now works for the Conflicts Forum (a Beirut-based think tank), told me, “It is very dangerous for the Lebanese government to open the door and let these people in.” Crooke said that a Sunni extremist group—Fatah al-Islam—split off from its pro-Syrian parent organization, Fatah al-Intifada, in the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp in northern Lebanon. Its membership is fewer than 200. Crooke said, “I was told that within 24 hours of its split, some people representing the interests of the Lebanese government immediately provided them with weapons and money—mainly to use against Hezbollah.”

阿拉斯泰尔·克鲁克，在英国军情六处供职近30年，如今在为冲突论坛（贝鲁特的一家智库）工作，他告诉我，“黎巴嫩政府打开门让这些人进来是十分危险的。”克鲁克说，一个逊尼派的极端组织——法塔赫伊斯兰，从其在黎巴嫩北部的巴里德河难民营的亲叙利亚的母体组织——法塔赫人民起义中分离出来。其成员人数尚不足200。克鲁克说，“我被告知，在其分离出来的24小时之内，一些代表黎巴嫩政府利益的人马上为他们提供了武器和金钱——主要用来对付真主党”。

The largest organization—Ansar al-Islam—is based in the Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp. Ansar al-Islam receives weapons and supplies from the Lebanese National Security Forces and militias closely tied to the Siniora government.

最大的组织——安萨尔联盟——坐落于艾因-吕海维的巴勒斯坦难民营。安萨尔联盟从黎巴嫩国家安全部队和与西尼乌拉政府关系密切的民兵手中得到武器和供给。

In 2005, according to a report by the International Crisis Group, Saad Hariri—the leader of the Sunni majority in the Lebanese parliament (son of the assassinated former prime minister, inheriting over $4 billion after his father’s assassination)—paid $48,000 in bail for four Islamic extremists from Dinniyeh. These individuals were arrested for attempting to establish a small Islamic emirate in northern Lebanon. The International Crisis Group noted that many of the militants had trained at al-Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan.

2005年，根据美国的国际危机小组报道，萨阿德·哈里里——黎巴嫩议会的逊尼多数派领导人（被杀前首相萨阿德的儿子，在他父亲遭暗杀后继承了超过40亿美元遗产），为来自Dinniyeh顶尼叶的四名伊斯兰极端分子支付了4万8千元保释金。这些人遭到逮捕是因为他们试图在黎巴嫩北部建立一个小型的伊斯兰王国。国际危机小组注意到，许多激进分子曾经在阿富汗的基地组织训练营受过训。

According to the International Crisis Group report, Saad Hariri, using his parliamentary majority, granted amnesty to 22 Dinniyeh Islamists and 7 terrorists suspected of planting bombs at the Ukrainian and Italian embassies in Beirut in previous years (he also granted amnesty to Samir Geagea—a Maronite Christian militia leader convicted of four murders, including the 1987 assassination of Prime Minister Rashid Karami). Hariri told the press that his actions were humanitarian.

根据国际危机小组的报道，萨阿德哈里里利用其所占有的议会权力多数，特赦了22名Dinniyeh伊斯兰主义者和7名恐怖分子，后者曾涉嫌前几年在布鲁特的乌克兰和意大利大使馆安放炸弹（他也对萨米尔·贾贾进行了赦免——一位马龙派基督教民兵领导人，被判为4起谋杀罪负责，包括1987年暗杀总理拉希德·卡拉米）。哈里里对报界说他的行为是人道主义的。

In an interview in Beirut, a senior official of the Siniora government acknowledged the presence of Sunni jihadists within Lebanon. “We have a tolerant attitude toward al-Qaeda’s presence here,” he said. He also expressed concern that Iran and Syria might turn Lebanon into a “center of conflict.”

在贝鲁特进行的一次采访中，西尼乌拉政府的一位高级官员承认，在黎巴嫩内部有逊尼派圣战者活动。“我们对于基地组织在此存在，保有宽容的态度”，他说。他同时表达了这样的担心，即伊朗和叙利亚很可能将黎巴嫩转变为“冲突的中心”。

The official believed that his government had no chance of victory unless a political settlement was reached with Hezbollah. He thought Lebanon would “slide into conflict,” with a potential open struggle between Hezbollah and Sunnis leading to terrible consequences. But if Hezbollah agreed to a political settlement while retaining an independent army and its alliance with Iran and Syria, “then Lebanon will become a target. In short, in either case, Lebanon becomes a target.”

该官员认为，他的政府没有胜利的可能。除非真主党得到政治解决。他认为，黎巴嫩会“滑入冲突”，黎巴嫩真主党与逊尼派公开斗争，会有着潜在的可怕结果。但是如果真主党同意政治解决，却仍保有独立的军队，并与伊朗和叙利亚结盟，“那么，黎巴嫩将会变成一个靶子。总之，上述两种情况，黎巴嫩都会变成靶子。”

The Bush administration portrays its support for the Siniora government as a reflection of the president’s belief in democracy and his hope to prevent other forces from interfering in Lebanon. When Hezbollah led street demonstrations in Beirut last December, John Bolton—then U.S. ambassador to the UN—called it “part of an Iran-Syria instigated coup.”

布什政府将其对西尼乌拉政府的支持描绘为总统对民主信仰，并且他希望能阻止其他力量干涉黎巴嫩。真主党去年12月领导了贝鲁特街头的示威，约翰·博尔顿——时任美国驻联合国大使将此称之为“伊朗-叙利亚煽动政变的一部分”。

Leslie H. Gelb, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, argued, “The administration’s policy is less about democracy and more about U.S. national security. The fact is, if Hezbollah controls Lebanon, it will be very dangerous.” The decline of the Siniora government would be seen as “a signal of America’s decline in the Middle East and the rise of the terrorist threat. Therefore, any effort to weaken and disperse Lebanese political power will be opposed by the United States—we will help non-Shiite parties resist such efforts. We should say this openly, instead of talking about democracy.”

外交关系委员会前主席莱斯利·H·盖博认为，“政府的政策与其说是为了民主，倒不如说是为了美国国家安全。事实是，如果真主党控制黎巴嫩将会十分危险”。西尼乌拉政府的衰落将被视为“美国在中东地区衰落和恐怖主义威胁崛起的信号。因此，任何削弱和分散黎巴嫩政治权力的做法都会遭到美国的反对——我们将会帮助非什叶派政党抵抗上述做法。我们应该公开这么说，代替原来关于对民主的谈论。”

Martin Indyk of the Saban Center said: “The United States does not have enough strength to prevent Lebanese moderates from dealing with extremists.” He added: “The president draws a clear line in the region between moderates and extremists, but our regional partners see this opposition as one between Sunnis and Shiites. Our Sunni allies view the Sunnis we regard as extremists simply as ‘Sunnis.’”

萨班中心的马丁·因迪克说：“美国并没有足够力量阻止黎巴嫩温和派对付极端主义者”。他补充道：“总统将该地区泾渭分明地划分为温和派和极端主义者的对立，但是我们地区伙伴则将这种对立视为逊尼派和什叶派的对立。我们的逊尼派盟友将我们视为极端主义者的逊尼派仅仅看作是‘逊尼派’。”

In January, after street clashes broke out in Beirut between the Siniora government and Hezbollah supporters, Prince Bandar flew to Tehran to discuss the political deadlock in Lebanon and met with Larijani—the Iranian nuclear negotiator. According to a Middle Eastern ambassador, Bandar’s trip had the backing of the White House—its goal being “to create problems between Iran and Syria.” Tensions had emerged between Syria and Iran due to Syrian-Israeli peace talks, and the Saudi aim was to exacerbate this rift. However, the ambassador said: “It didn’t work. Syria and Iran don’t want to betray each other. Bandar’s approach is hard to succeed with.”

1月份，在贝鲁特西尼乌拉政府和真主党支持者之间的街头暴力冲突爆发之后，班达尔亲王飞往德黑兰讨论黎巴嫩的政治僵局，并且会见了拉里贾尼——伊朗核问题的谈判代表。根据一位中东大使透漏，班达尔此行得到了白宫的支持——其目标在于“在伊朗和叙利亚之间制造问题”。由于叙利亚和以色列和谈，叙利亚和伊朗之间出现了紧张态势，而沙特人的目的是加剧这种分歧。然而，这位大使说：“这没有用。叙利亚和伊朗并不想背叛彼此。班达尔的方法很难获得成功。”

Walid Jumblatt, leader of Lebanon’s Druze minority and a strong supporter of Siniora, attacked Nasrallah as a Syrian agent and repeatedly told foreign reporters that Hezbollah was under the direct control of Iran’s religious leader. In a conversation with me last December, he described Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as a “butcher.” He said Nasrallah was the murderer of Hariri and of Pierre Gemayel (a member of Siniora’s cabinet), killed last November.

瓦利德·贾姆巴特，黎巴嫩的德鲁兹少数派领导人和西尼乌拉的强力支持者，攻击纳斯鲁拉是叙利亚的代理人，并且反复告诉外国记者真主党处于伊朗宗教领袖的直接控制之下。去年12月和我的一次会谈中，他将叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德描述为“刽子手”。他说，纳斯鲁拉是暗杀哈里里和去年11月杀害皮埃尔·杰马耶勒（西尼乌拉内阁成员）的凶手。

Jumblatt then told me that last spring he met in Washington with Vice President Cheney, and the topics discussed included the possibility of removing Assad. He and his colleagues suggested to Cheney that, once the United States confronted Syria, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood could be listed as “a force that could be won over,” Jumblatt said.

贾姆巴特随后告诉我，他去年春天在华盛顿会见了副总统切尼，讨论问题的内容包括清除阿萨德的可能性。他和他的同僚建议切尼，一旦美国和叙利亚对阵，可以将叙利亚的穆斯林兄弟列为“可以争取的对象”，贾姆巴特说。

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood—a branch of a radical Sunni movement founded in Egypt in 1928—had for over a decade waged a struggle against the regime of Hafez al-Assad (Bashar’s father). In 1982, the Brotherhood took control of the city of Hama; Assad bombed the city for a week, killing 6,000–20,000 people. Joining the Brotherhood in Syria is punishable by death. The Brotherhood is also an open enemy of the United States and Israel. Yet Jumblatt said, “We told Cheney that the base link between Iran and Lebanon is Syria—to weaken Iran, you have to open the door for the Syrian opposition.”

叙利亚穆斯林兄弟会——1928年在埃及成立的一个激进的逊尼运动的分支，十多年以来从事反对哈夫兹·阿萨德（巴什尔的父亲）政权的斗争。在1982年，兄弟会控制了哈马市；阿萨德轰炸了这座城市一个星期，杀死6,000——20,000人。加入兄弟会在叙利亚会被判处死刑。兄弟会也是美国和以色列的公开敌人。然而，贾姆巴特说，“我们告诉切尼，伊朗和黎巴嫩的基础环节是叙利亚——要想削弱伊朗就得为叙利亚反对派打开方便之门。”

There is evidence that the government’s reorientation strategy has already benefited the Brotherhood. The Syrian National Salvation Front is an opposition coalition whose main members are a faction led by former Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam (who defected in 2005) and the Brotherhood. A former senior CIA official told me, “The United States provides political and economic support to this organization. The Saudis handle the main economic support, and the Americans provide a portion.”

有证据表明，政府的重新定向战略已经使兄弟会受益。叙利亚国家拯救阵线是一个反对派联盟，其主要成员是前叙利亚副总统阿普杜拉·哈利姆·哈达姆（于2005年叛逃）领导的一派人和兄弟会。一位前中央情报局高级官员告诉我，“美国为该组织提供了政治和经济支持。沙特人负责主要经济支持，美国人提供了一部分”。

He said that Khaddam, now living in Paris, receives money from Saudi Arabia with the White House’s approval (according to relevant news reports, in 2005 National Security Council officials met with a delegation of Front members). A former White House official told me that the Saudis provided travel documents for Front members.

他说，哈达姆如今居住在巴黎，在白宫的首肯下，从沙特获取金钱（据有关新闻报道，2005年国家安全委员会官员会见了阵线成员组成的代表团）。一位前白宫官员告诉我，沙特人为阵线成员提供了旅行证件。

Jumblatt said he understood this was a sensitive issue for the White House. “I told Cheney that in the Arab world, mainly the Egyptians”—whose moderate Sunni leadership has struggled for decades with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood—would be unhappy if the United States helped the Brotherhood. But without supporting the Syrian Brotherhood, we cannot win the long-term confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

贾姆巴特说，他理解这对白宫来说是个敏感问题。“我告诉切尼，在阿拉伯世界，主要是埃及人”——其温和的逊尼派领导人已经和埃及穆斯林兄弟会斗争了几十年——如果美国帮助兄弟会，埃及会不高兴的。但如果不支持叙利亚兄弟会，在黎巴嫩与真主党的长期对决中，我们是赢不了的。

The Sheikh

酋长

On a warm, clear night last December, a few kilometers from the bombed-out suburbs of Beirut, I learned the outline of how the government would implement its new strategy in Lebanon. Hassan Nasrallah—the Hezbollah leader hiding there—agreed to be interviewed. The security arrangements for the meeting were secret and complex. I sat in the back seat of a pitch-black car, was taken to a damaged underground garage in Beirut, found a second vehicle through a handheld scanner, arrived at another bombed-out underground garage, and then transferred again. Last summer, there were reports that the Israelis wanted to kill Nasrallah, but Nasrallah’s extreme caution was not solely due to that threat. Nasrallah’s aides told me they believed Nasrallah was a primary target of fellow Arabs. These fellow Arabs were mainly composed of Jordanian intelligence agents and Islamic jihadists linked to al-Qaeda (a retired four-star general and government advisor told me that Jordanian intelligence, with U.S. and Israeli support, was trying to infiltrate Shiite organizations to work against Hezbollah. Jordan’s King Abdullah II had warned that a Shiite Iraqi government close to Iran would lead to the emergence of a Shiite crescent). This was an ironic turn: Nasrallah’s struggle last summer against the Israelis made him, a Shiite, the most popular and influential figure among both Sunnis and Shiites in the Middle East. In recent months, he has increasingly been seen by some Sunnis not only as a symbol of Arab unity but also as a representative of a sectarian war.

去年12月一个温暖晴朗的夜晚，在被炸毁的贝鲁特几公里以外的郊区，我了解到了政府将如何在黎巴嫩实施新战略的概要。哈桑·纳斯鲁拉——藏身于此的真主党领导人，同意接受我的采访。会议的安全保障是秘密和复杂的。我坐在一个黑漆漆轿车的后座上，被带到了贝鲁特某处已经损毁的地下车库，我通过一个手持式扫描仪找到第二辆车，并抵达了另一处被炸弹炸毁的地下车库，然后再次转移。去年夏天，有报道称，以色列人想杀死纳斯鲁拉，但是纳斯鲁拉特别谨慎并不仅仅由于那次威胁。纳斯鲁拉的助手告诉我，他们相信纳斯鲁拉是fellow-Arabs的主要目标。fellow-Arabs主要是约旦情报部门的特工和与基地组织有染的伊斯兰圣战者组成（一位四星级的退休将军同时也是一位政府顾问告诉我，约旦情报部门得到了美国和以色列的支持，试图渗透什叶派组织，使之从事反对真主党的斗争。约旦国王阿普杜拉二世曾警告说，一个与伊朗关系密切的什叶派伊拉克政府，会导致什叶新月带的出现）。这是一个讽刺性的转变：纳斯鲁拉去年夏天与以色列人的斗争，使他这样一个什叶派成为中东地区逊尼派和什叶派间最受欢迎和最具影响力的人物。最近几个月，他不仅被一些逊尼派越来越多地视为阿拉伯团结的标志性人物，更是一场教派战争的代表人。

Nasrallah, dressed in religious robes, waited for me in a modest apartment. His advisors reminded him that he could not stay overnight; he had been constantly moving, changing hiding places ever since last July, when Hezbollah raided the border and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, triggering a 33-day war. Nasrallah had publicly stated—and repeated these words to me—that he had misjudged the Israeli response. “We only wanted to capture two people to exchange prisoners,” he told me. “We never thought it would drag the region into war.”

穿着宗教长袍的纳斯鲁拉在一间不起眼的公寓里等我。他的顾问提醒他不能在此过夜；他一直在转移，自去年7月份真主党在边境突袭并绑架两名以色列士兵，由此开启33天战争后，纳斯鲁拉一直不断更换藏身之处。纳斯鲁拉曾经公开表示过——这次又对我重复了这些话——他误判了以色列人的反应。“我们只是想逮两个人交换战俘”，他告诉我说“从未想过将该地区拖进战争。”

Nasrallah condemned the Bush administration and Israel for deliberately inciting “fitna,” an Arabic word—“meaning the deliberate stirring up of division and rebellion within Islam.” He said, “In my view, there is a huge movement that spares no effort in mobilizing the world’s media to confront and strike at opponents. I believe the intelligence agencies of the United States and Israel are behind this incitement” (though he provided no evidence). He said the U.S. war in Iraq had exacerbated sectarian contradictions, but Hezbollah was striving to prevent this sectarian strife from spreading to Lebanon (a few weeks after our conversation, Sunni-Shiite clashes accompanied by violence intensified).

纳斯鲁拉谴责布什政府与以色列蓄意煽动“fitna”，一个阿拉伯词汇——“指在伊斯兰教内部刻意煽动分裂及叛乱”。他说，“在我看来，存在一个巨大的运动，即不惜调动全世界媒体用对抗和打击对手。“我相信是美国和以色列的情报机构在幕后煽动”（但他并未提供任何证据）。他说，美国在伊拉克的战争加剧了教派之间的矛盾，但是真主党要竭力阻止这种教派争斗扩散到黎巴嫩（在我们交谈几周之后，逊尼-什叶派伴随着暴力的冲突加剧）。

Nasrallah said he believed President Bush’s goal was “to draw a new map of the region. They want to dismember Iraq. Iraq is not on the verge of civil war; it is already in a civil war. Ethnic and sectarian cleansing is underway. The daily massacres and displacements in Iraq will split it into three parts. This religious and ethnic purification is a prelude to dismembering Iraq. At most, it will take one to two years before Iraq is divided into a Sunni region, a Shiite region, and a Kurdish region. There is even a fear that Baghdad will be split into two areas, one Sunni and one Shiite.”

纳斯鲁拉说他相信布什总统的目标是“绘制一张该地区的新地图。他们想要肢解伊拉克。伊拉克并非处于内战的边缘，而是正在进行内战。正在进行种族和宗派清洗。每日在伊拉克发生的屠杀和迁徙将会把伊拉克割裂为三个部分，这种宗教和种族的纯洁化是割裂伊拉克的前奏。至多需要一到两年时间，伊拉克就会被割裂为逊尼派地区、什叶派地区和库尔德人地区。甚至也有一种担忧，巴格达会被切分为两个地区，一个是逊尼派地区，一个是什叶派地区。”

He continued, “President Bush says he does not want Iraq to be divided; he is lying. All the facts are before us. I can swear that he is dismembering Iraq. When the day comes that Iraq is fully dismembered, he will say, ‘I can do nothing about it, because the Iraqis want to redraw their country; I am just respecting the will of the Iraqi people.’”

他继续说，“布什总统说并不希望伊拉克被分割，他是在撒谎。所有事实摆在面前，我可以发誓，他正在割裂伊拉克。当伊拉克被肢解完毕的那一天真正到来时，他会说，我无能为力，因为伊拉克人想重新划割他们的国家，我只是尊重伊拉克人民的意愿。”

Nasrallah said he believed the United States also intended to dismember Lebanon and Syria. Syria would be pushed toward “turmoil and civil war, just like Iraq.” Lebanon “would be split into a Sunni state, an Alawite state, a Christian state, and a Druze state.” But, he said, “I don’t know if a Shia state would emerge.” Nasrallah told me he suspected that Israel’s bombing of Lebanon last summer was aimed at “destroying Shia areas and driving Shia out of Lebanon. The ultimate goal is to expel the Shia of Lebanon and Syria to southern Iraq,” which is Shia-dominated. “I can’t be sure, but I feel it,” he told me.

纳斯鲁拉说他相信美国还打算肢解黎巴嫩和叙利亚。叙利亚会被推向“动乱和内战，就像伊拉克那样”。黎巴嫩“将会被割裂为一个逊尼派国家，一个阿拉维国家、一个基督教国家和一个德鲁兹国家”。但是，他说，“我不知道是否会出现一个什叶派国家”。纳斯鲁拉告诉我，他怀疑以色列去年夏天轰炸黎巴嫩的目的是“炸毁什叶派地区并把什叶派人赶出黎巴嫩。其最终目的在于将黎巴嫩和叙利亚的什叶派驱逐至伊拉克南部”，这是什叶派主导的。“我不能确定，但是我感觉到了”，他告诉我。

He said that after the above dismemberment process was completed, Israel would be surrounded by “small, quiet states.” “I assure you, the Saudi kingdom will also be dismembered, and the ‘carving up’ will extend to North African countries. Then there will be a large number of small ethnic and religious states. In other words, Israel will become the most important and powerful state in the region, while other countries are dismembered into small ethnic and religious states. This is the New Middle East.”

他说，上述肢解过程完成后，以色列将被“小而平静的国家”所包围。“我向你保证，沙特王国也会被肢解，‘切割’将会延伸至北非国家。那时会出现大批小的种族和宗教国家。换句话说，以色列将成为该地区最重要和最强大的国家，其他国家都被肢解成小的种族和宗教国家。这就是新中东。”

In fact, the Bush administration refused to publicly discuss the plan to dismember Iraq, and its stated position was to position a future Lebanon as a complete state, with Hezbollah weak and disarmed domestically, playing at most a minor political role. There is currently no evidence to support Nasrallah’s view that Israel’s goal was to expel Shia to southern Iraq. However, Nasrallah’s vision of larger sectarian conflict, with U.S. involvement, also foreshadows the possible consequences of the White House’s new strategy.

事实上，布什政府拒绝公开讨论肢解伊拉克的计划，其公开的立场是将未来的黎巴嫩定位为完整国家，国内的真主党力量弱小且已解除武装，至少，只扮演着很小的政治角色。目前还没有证据支持纳斯鲁拉的观点，即以色列人的目的是将什叶派驱逐至伊拉克南部。然而，纳斯鲁拉的愿景是出现更大的教派冲突，美国牵涉其中——这也预示着白宫新战略的可能性后果。

In the interview, Nasrallah made peace gestures and promises that would be met with suspicion by his opponents. “If the U.S. government believes that dialogue with an organization like ours would be useful and could influence U.S. Middle East policy, we are not opposed to dialogue or negotiations,” he said. “But if they convene negotiations with the aim of imposing their policies on us, that is just a waste of time.” He pledged that unless attacked, Hezbollah’s armed forces would operate only within Lebanon’s borders, and promised to disarm when the Lebanese military could truly protect the country. Nasrallah said launching another war with Israel was not in his interest. Yet he added that he was preparing to launch an attack on Israel later this year.

在采访中，纳斯鲁拉做出了会遭到对手怀疑的和平手势和承诺。“如果美国政府认为与我们这样的组织对话有用并且会对美国的中东政策有影响，我们并不反对对话或者和谈。”他说，“但是，如果他们召开和谈的目的是将其政策强加给我们，那只是在浪费时间。”他承诺除非遭到攻击，真主党武装将只在黎巴嫩边界活动，并承诺在黎巴嫩军队真正能保护自己国家的时候会解除武装。纳斯鲁拉说，发动另一场以色列的战争，对其没有好处。然而，他却补充道，他正在准备对以色列发动一次袭击，在今年晚些时候。

Nasrallah firmly stated that street protests in Beirut would continue until the Siniora government fell or Hezbollah and its political allies’ demands were met. “Frankly, this government cannot rule the country,” he told me. “It can still issue orders, but the majority of the Lebanese people will not obey the government’s laws or recognize its legitimacy. Siniora remains in power because of international support, but that does not mean Siniora can continue to rule Lebanon.” Nasrallah said President Bush’s repeated praise for the Siniora government “actually benefits the Lebanese opposition. Because when facing the Lebanese people, the Arab and Islamic world, being too close to the United States weakens Siniora’s position. They think we are tired, but would we be tired from street protests when we were not tired during the war?”

纳斯鲁拉坚决表示，贝鲁特的街头抗议活动还将持续，直到西尼乌拉政府倒台或者真主党及其政治同盟的要求得到满足。“坦率地讲，这个政府统治不了国家”，他告诉我说“它仍然可以发号施令，但是大多数黎巴嫩人民不会遵守政府的法律以及承认政府的合法性。西尼乌拉仍在台上，是因为国际支持，但这并不意味着西尼乌拉可以继续统治黎巴嫩。”纳斯鲁拉说，布什总统对西尼乌拉政府的反复赞扬“反而对黎巴嫩反对派有好处。因为当面对黎巴嫩人民、阿拉伯和伊斯兰世界人民的时候，与美国走得太近反而会削弱西尼乌拉政府的地位。他们认为我们累了，但我们在战争期间尚且不会疲惫，难道会因为街头抗议感到疲惫？”

There is deep disagreement within and outside the Bush administration over how best to deal with Nasrallah and whether Nasrallah could become a political partner for the United States. Outgoing U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, in his farewell speech to the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Hezbollah “lies at the center of Iran’s terrorist strategy… Hezbollah sees itself as Tehran’s partner, and when survival is at stake or when Iran is threatened, it will attack the United States.”

关于如何最有效地地对付纳斯鲁拉，以及纳斯鲁拉是否可以成为美国的政治合作伙伴，布什政府内外有很深的分歧。即将离任的美国国家情报主任约翰·内格罗蓬特，在参议院情报委员会的告别发言中说，真主党“居于伊朗恐怖主义策略的中心……真主党将自己视为德黑兰的伙伴，当为了生存或者当伊朗受到威胁时，它就会对美国发动攻击”。

In 2002, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage called Hezbollah the “A-team” of terrorism. In a recent interview, Armitage acknowledged that the issue had become more complex. Armitage told me Nasrallah “has become an increasingly significant political force, due to his role in Lebanese politics.” Armitage said that flexible handling of public relations and political maneuvering had made Nasrallah “the smartest person in the Middle East.” But, he added, “as a staunch opponent, Nasrallah must know when to stop. In my view, he still has a blood debt to pay”—for the murder of the colonel and the bombing of the barracks.

在2002年，副国务卿理查德·阿米蒂奇，将真主党称为恐怖主义的“A级组织”。在最近的一次采访中，阿米蒂奇承认，问题变得越来越复杂了。阿米蒂奇告诉我，纳斯鲁拉“成为了越来越不可忽视的政治力量，由于其在黎巴嫩政治中扮演的角色。”阿米蒂奇说，对公共关系的灵活处理和政治手腕的运用使纳斯鲁拉成为“中东最聪明的人”。但是，他补充说，“作为一个坚定的反对派，纳斯鲁拉必须懂得适可而止。在我看来，他还有一笔血债要偿”——谋杀上校和炸毁军营。

Robert Baer, a former CIA field officer long stationed in Lebanon, has long criticized Hezbollah and warned of its close ties to Iran-backed terrorism. But now, he told me, “We have learned that Sunni Arabs are preparing to create a catastrophic conflict, and someone needs to protect Lebanon’s Christians. In the past, it was the Americans and French protecting them; now it is Nasrallah and the Shia.”

罗伯特·贝尔，前美国中央情报局长驻黎巴嫩特工，长期批评真主党并警告真主党与伊朗支持下恐怖主义有密切联系。但是如今，他告诉我，“我们已经得知逊尼派阿拉伯人准备制造灾难性的冲突，需要有人保护黎巴嫩的基督教徒。过去是美国和法国人在保护他们，如今是纳斯鲁拉和什叶派”。

“Nasrallah’s transformation from a street thug into a leader, from a terrorist into a politician, is the most moving story in the Middle East.” What Baer fears about Nasrallah, beyond firing rockets at Israel and kidnapping soldiers, is the possibility of launching worldwide terrorist attacks against Israel and the United States.

“纳斯鲁拉从一个街头混混成长为一名领导人，从一个恐怖主义分子成为一名政治家，这是中东地区最动人的故事”。贝尔所担心纳斯鲁拉，除了向以色列发射火箭炮和绑架士兵之外，也有可能发动全世界范围的针对以色列和美国的恐怖主义袭击。

The vast majority of diplomats and intelligence officials acknowledge that Hezbollah is in close contact with Iran. But there is disagreement over the extent to which Nasrallah can set aside Hezbollah’s interests to satisfy Iran’s. A former CIA officer who worked long-term in Lebanon described Nasrallah as “a Lebanese phenomenon,” adding that Nasrallah indeed receives support from Iran and Syria, but Hezbollah merely uses them. He told me that in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the CIA station in Beirut secretly monitored Nasrallah’s conversations. He described Nasrallah as “a gang boss capable of making deals with other gangs. He can deal with anyone.”

绝大多数外交人员和情报人员承认真主党与伊朗正在密切交往。但是对于纳斯鲁拉在多大程度上可以把真主党的利益放在一边满足伊朗的利益，存在分歧。一位长期在黎巴嫩工作的前中央情报局官员将纳斯鲁拉描述为“一个黎巴嫩现象”，并补充说，纳斯鲁拉的确是得到了伊朗和叙利亚的支持，但是真主党只是利用他们。他告诉我，在80年代末和90年代初期，中央情报局驻贝鲁特站秘密监听过纳斯鲁拉的谈话。他将纳斯鲁拉描述为“一个有能力与其他帮派做交易的黑帮头目。他和任何人都能打交道。”

Tell Congress

告诉国会

The Bush administration’s covert operations were not reported to Congress, and its dealings with intermediaries that did not fit the agenda were also exposed. Twenty years ago, the Reagan administration illegally funded the Nicaraguan Contras and secretly sold weapons to the Iranian opposition. Saudi funds were involved in the notorious Iran-Contra affair, and the then-backers—the famous Prince Bandar and Elliott Abrams—are involved in today’s dealings.

布什政府的秘密行动并未向国会报告，其与中间人不符合议程的交易也被披露了出来。二十年前，里根政府曾非法资助尼加拉瓜反对派和秘密向伊朗反对派销售武器。沙特的资金卷入了臭名昭著的伊朗门丑闻，当时的幕后支持者——有名的班达尔亲王和埃利奥特·阿布拉姆——都卷入了今天的交易。

Two years ago, a discussion on the veterans’ scandal drew lessons from the Iran-Contra affair. Abrams led this discussion. The content was eventually exposed—the conclusion reached was to act without informing Congress. Participants summarized that future covert operations needed to learn the following lessons: “First, you cannot trust your friends; second, have nothing to do with the CIA; third, do not trust uniformed military personnel; fourth, have nothing to do with the Office of the Vice President Cheney”—regarding Cheney’s role, a former senior intelligence official said.

两年前退伍军人丑闻的讨论汲取了伊朗门丑闻的经验教训。阿布拉姆领导了这次讨论。讨论内容最终被曝光——当时得出的结论是，要在不告知国会的前提下行动。与会者总结，未来的秘密行动需要汲取如下教训：“第一，你不能相信你的朋友；第二，跟中情局完全无关；第三，不要相信穿制服的军人；第四，与切尼总统办公室无关”——关于切尼所扮演的角色，前高级情报官员说。

Two former government advisors and senior intelligence officials told me that the negative impact of the Iran-Contra affair was an important factor in Negroponte’s departure from the position of Director of National Intelligence to become Deputy Secretary of State (Negroponte declined to comment on this).

两位前政府顾问和高级情报官员告诉我，伊朗门丑闻的负面影响是内格罗蓬特去职国家情报管理局，接受副国务卿职务的重要因素（内格罗蓬特对此拒绝发表评论）。

A Pentagon advisor added that, from a covert perspective, one of the difficulties was explaining secret funds. He said “a large amount of black money is scattered in many places, funding the execution of numerous secret missions.” According to information provided by a former senior intelligence official and a retired four-star general, Iraq’s finances were extremely chaotic, with billions of dollars unaccounted for.

五角大楼顾问补充说，从隐蔽的角度来看，难题之一是解释秘密资金。他说“大量的黑钱分散在许多地方，资助执行大量秘密任务”。根据前高级情报官员和退休的四星级将军提供的消息，伊拉克的财政十分混乱，数十亿美元下落不明。

“This goes back to Iran-Contra,” a former National Security Council official told me: “What they are doing is distancing themselves from the operation.” Congress was not fully informed of the details of the U.S.-Saudi operation.

“这要追溯到伊朗门，”一位前国家安全委员会官员告诉我：“他们正在做的就是撇清自己与行动的关系”。国会并未被详细告知美国-沙特行动的全部细节。

Congress is paying increasing attention to the issue of oversight. Last November, a research agency of Congress released a report arguing that the boundary between government activities in the Central Intelligence Agency and strict military operations is blurred. The Senate Intelligence Committee, led by Senator Jay Rockefeller, has already planned a Defense Department intelligence hearing for March 8.

国会越来越关注监督的问题。去年11月，国会的研究机构发布了一份报告，这份报告认为政府在中央情报局活动和严格的军事活动之间的界限很模糊。以参议员杰伊·洛克菲勒为首的参议院情报委员会，已经计划在3月8日进行国防部情报听证会。

Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, a Democrat and member of the Intelligence Committee, told me: "The Bush administration often fails to fulfill its legal obligations to fully and promptly inform the Intelligence Committee. Instead, it repeatedly says, 'Trust us.'" Wyden said, "For me, it is difficult to trust the government."

俄勒冈州的参议员郎威登是一位民主党人，同时也是情报委员会委员，他告诉我：“布什政府经常不履行其法律上的义务，完全和及时告知情报委员会。而是屡次三番地说，‘相信我们’”。威登说，“对于我来说，相信政府很困难。”

(Translation: Hua Yi)

（翻译：华艺）

Online Editor: Jia Fei

网络编辑：嘉扉