A Contemporary Examination of "Fortune-Telling": Theoretical Evolution, Pseudo-Scientific Nature, and Countermeasures

In today's highly developed internet era, fortune-telling, divination, and metaphysics have become an undeniable trend in online discourse. If in the past, fortune-telling and divination were believed only by people with low scientific literacy, prevalent superstitious thinking, and ignorance and backwardness, then at present, fortune-telling and divination have "captured" the favor of a large number of highly educated, highly knowledgeable people. This phenomenon indicates that people's superstition regarding fortune-telling exhibits characteristics different from the past. Although some studies have explained from sociological and psychological perspectives why highly educated people who already possess high scientific literacy still engage in fortune-telling, they still cannot clearly explain why this group of people believes in fortune-telling. The reason is that existing studies approach this issue from external mechanisms, which first presuppose the conclusions that "fortune-telling is false" and "fortune-telling is superstition." However, the highly educated people who believe in fortune-telling precisely do not accept this presupposition; their cognition of fortune-telling is rational. This indicates that to deeply understand the phenomenon of modern fortune-telling and divination, one cannot merely remain at the past simplistic way of thinking that links fortune-telling with "superstition," "ignorance," and "backwardness." It is necessary to further move from the external to the internal, exploring the deep psychological identification mechanisms of its target population, thereby providing more accurate theoretical basis and practical guidance for improving the scientific and cultural literacy of the whole society and eradicating superstition.

在互联网高度发达的今天，算命、占卜、玄学已经成为网络话语中不可忽视的一股潮流。如果说在过去，算命占卜只有科学素养低下、迷信思想盛行、愚昧落后的人群才会相信，那么在当下，算命占卜则“俘获”了大量高学历、高知识人群的青睐。这种现象表明，人们对于算命的迷信呈现出与过去不同的特征。尽管有研究从社会学、心理学的角度解释了为什么已经具备较高科学素养的高知人群仍然会去算命，但仍不能解释清楚为何这部分人群会相信算命。原因在于，现有研究是从外部机制入手来讲述这一问题，这首先就预设了“算命是虚假的”“算命是迷信”的结论，但是相信算命占卜的高知人群恰恰不认可这一预设，他们对于算命的认知是理性的。这表明，深入理解现代算命占卜现象，不能仅停留在过去简单将算命与“迷信”“愚昧”“无知”联系起来的思维方式，必须进一步从外部走向内部，探究其对象人群深层的心理认同机制，从而为提高全社会科学文化素养、破除迷信提供更为准确的理论依据和实践指引。

I. The Origin and Theoretical Evolution of "Fortune-Telling"

一、“算命术”的起源及其理论演变

(A) From the Pre-Qin Period to the Qin and Han Dynasties: Early Forms of Divination

(一)先秦至秦汉：卜筮的早期形态

Predicting the future is an unremitting pursuit inherent to humanity since its inception. This is not only due to the instinct to seek advantage and avoid harm but also reflects humanity's pursuit of freedom and the desire to master its own destiny. In the absence of knowledge from the natural and social sciences, obtaining "heavenly revelations" through divination to predict the consequences of decisions became a helpless choice for the ancients. Early divination in the Pre-Qin period and earlier generally had the following characteristics.

预测未来是人类自诞生以来就具有的不懈追求，这不仅是趋利避害的本性使然，也体现了人类对于自由的追求、掌握自身命运的渴望。在缺乏自然科学和社会科学知识的情况下，通过占卜的手段获取“上天的启示”以预知决策的后果，便成为古人无奈的选择。先秦及以前的早期卜筮，总的来说有以下特点。

First, the content of divination was mainly matters of state concerning the rulers.

第一，卜筮的内容，主要是与统治者有关的国家大事。

Sima Qian said in the "Biographies of the Diviners of Tortoise Shells and Milfoil" in the *Records of the Grand Historian*: "Since ancient times, when sage kings were about to establish a state, receive the mandate, and initiate undertakings, how could they not treasure divination to assist goodness! ... When kings decided various doubts, they consulted divination, made judgments using the tortoise shell and milfoil stalks—this was an unchanging way." [1]1 Li Chunfeng (602–670), Yuan Tiangang (d. 627), and Liu Bowen (1311–1375) were historical Chinese figures renowned as scholars, astronomers, and strategists, later mythologized as masters of divination and prophecy. From this passage, it can be seen that before the Han Dynasty, divination held an important position in state affairs. Whenever there were major state events, divination had to be used to assist decision-making. Examining the divination cases passed down from before the Han Dynasty, most are related to political events, such as "Dong Yin divined for Chong'er's return to the state," "Lu attacked Yue and divined the 'tripod breaking its leg' hexagram," and "Emperor Wu of Han divined attacking the Xiongnu."

司马迁在《史记·龟策列传》中说：“自古圣王将建国受命，兴动事业，何尝不宝卜筮以助善!……王者决定诸疑，参以卜筮，断以蓍龟，不易之道也。”从这段话可以看出，汉代以前，卜筮在国家事务中处于重要的位置，每逢国家大事，必须以占卜辅助决策。考察汉代以前流传下来的占例，大多数都与政治事件相关，如“董因筮重耳返国”“鲁伐越筮鼎折足”“汉武帝筮伐匈奴”等。

Second, the process of divination was quite complex, with certain rituals and rules.

第二，卜筮的过程比较繁复，有一定的仪式和规则。

Tortoise shell divination was an early form of divination. It involved heating tortoise shells to obtain specific cracks, and interpreting these cracks to receive guidance from the spirits regarding the future. As the mainstream form of divination during the Shang and Zhou dynasties, its procedure was cumbersome and highly ritualized. First, material selection required choosing tortoise shells or cattle shoulder blades of specific sizes, with specific regulations for their selection and storage. Second, divination had to be performed by专职的卜者 [2]2 "Broadcasting nets" (广撒网, literally "casting a wide net") is a Chinese idiom describing a strategy of casting a wide net to catch fish, used here metaphorically to mean a broad, indiscriminate approach to targeting potential victims. and needed to be accompanied by prayer rituals. Third, the results of divination had to be specially preserved, with a strict archival system established. Fourth, major events required repeated and continuous divination. The *Book of Changes* also records the so-called "Great Expansion Divination Method," which uses 49 yarrow stalks as a tool. Through the four steps of "dividing into two, suspending one, counting by fours, and returning the remainder," [3]3 *Notes of the Thatched Abode of Close Scrutiny* (《阅微草堂笔记》) is a collection of classical Chinese stories and anecdotes by Ji Xiaolan, known for its supernatural and moral themes. it generates yao lines, replacing the physical process of processing oracle bones, to obtain hexagrams, which are then interpreted based on the hexagram statements and line statements.

龟甲占卜是一种早期的占卜形式，它通过烧制龟壳来获得一定的纹路，通过解读这些纹路获取神明对于未来的指引。龟卜作为商周主流占卜形式，其流程烦琐且高度仪式化，一是选材要选择特定尺寸的龟甲或牛肩胛骨，对于龟甲的选取和保存也有特定的规定。二是占卜要由专职的卜者进行，且需配合祷告仪式。三是占卜的结果要专门保存，设立严格的档案制度。四是重大的事件要多次连续反复占卜。《周易》一书中也记载了所谓的“大衍筮法”,以49根蓍草为工具，通过“分二、挂一、揲四、归奇”四步生成爻象,取代了甲骨加工的物理工序，得出卦象，然后根据卦辞、爻辞进行解读。

Third, the results of divination were contradictory, with different interpretations for the same hexagram images.

第三，卜筮的结果存在矛盾性，对于同样的卦象有不同的理解。

We can see that divination essentially involves first collecting specific symbols through a random method, and then interpreting these symbols according to specific rules. Contemporaneous with *Zhouyi* divination were various other forms of divination, such as wind divination and astrological divination. Their essence is nothing more than this; the difference lies only in whether the symbols to be interpreted are hexagrams, cracks, wind directions, or star patterns. However, the methods of interpreting these divinations are diverse. Even when faced with the same symbols, different people have different understandings, thus reaching different conclusions. For example, the *Family Sayings of Confucius* records that Confucius divined and obtained the "Bi" hexagram. A disciple considered "Bi" an auspicious hexagram, but Confucius, based on the meaning of "Bi" as ornamentation, considered it an inauspicious hexagram. [4]4 This is a direct quotation from Ji Xiaolan's *Notes of the Thatched Abode of Close Scrutiny*. Clearly, this vague method of prediction is merely a form of psychological comfort and cannot satisfy people's real need to seek good fortune and avoid misfortune.

我们可以看到，卜筮本质上是先通过一种随机性的手段收集到一定的符号，然后根据一定的规则对这些符号进行解读。与周易卜筮同一时期还存在风占、星占等多种卜筮方式，其本质都无外乎如此，区别仅在于这些有待解读的符号是卦象、纹路，还是风向、星空。但是，这些占卜解读的方式是多样的，即使是面对同样的符号，不同的人也有不同的理解，从而得出不同的结论。例如，《孔子家语》中记载，孔子占卜到了“贲”卦，弟子以为“贲”是吉卦，而孔子以“贲”的纹饰之意当作凶卦。显然，这种模糊的预测方式，实际上只是一种心理安慰，无法满足人们趋吉避凶的真实需求。

(B) The Tang and Song Dynasties: Expansion of Scope and Systematization of Theory

(二)唐宋时期：范围的扩大与理论的系统化

With the development of the times, "fortune-telling" increasingly moved from the official sphere to the folk, showing a tendency towards simplification, integration into daily life, and theorization. First, there was a simplification of rituals and calculation methods. The introduction of the Heavenly Stems and Earthly Branches, Yin-Yang and the Five Elements into the divination system overcame the drawbacks of divination being constrained by specific rituals, greatly simplifying the divination procedure and improving its efficiency. The introduction of the Stems and Branches and the Five Elements also made the interpretation of divinatory symbols more unified and standardized. The combination of Stems and Branches is auspicious, while punishment, harm, and clash are inauspicious; the generation cycle of the Five Elements is auspicious, while the overcoming cycle is inauspicious. These are fixed rules, thus reducing the space for diviners to interpret based on their own understanding, making it more deterministic.

随着时代的发展，“算命术”日益从官方走向民间，呈现出简约化、生活化、理论化的倾向。一是仪式和推算方式的简化。天干地支、阴阳五行等内容被引入占卜体系中，这一做法克服了卜筮受制于特定仪式的弊端，大大简化了占卜程序、提高了占卜效率。干支、五行的引入也使占卜的符号解读方式更加统一、规范，干支合为吉，刑、害、冲为凶，五行生为吉，克为凶，这是固定的规则，这样就减小了卜者根据自己的理解发挥的空间，使之更具有确定性。

Second, the scope of use expanded, covering all aspects of social life. Whether it was the increase in efficiency or the increase in certainty, the ultimate goal was to more effectively meet the living needs of the people at that time. The *Tang Liudian* states: "As for all Yin-Yang miscellaneous divination, good fortune, misfortune, regret, and difficulty, their categories are nine, resolving the hesitations of the myriad people: first, marriage; second, childbirth; third, calendar annotation; fourth, housing; fifth, official salary and fate; sixth, appointment to office; seventh, sacrificial rites; eighth, onset of illness; ninth, funerals." [5]5 "Official ghost" (官鬼, guānguǐ) is a term in Chinese divination systems like the Six Lines (六爻, liùyáo), where it can represent both positive (official position) and negative (illness, pressure) aspects. It can be seen that in daily life, using divination to resolve doubts was a common method adopted by the populace at that time. The Song Dynasty text on "Liu Ren" divination, *Judging Cases*, records the practice of divination and prediction at that time. The cases in it involve various aspects such as weather, family, career, marriage, pregnancy and childbirth, seeking wealth, travel, lost property, and illness, [6]6 "White Tiger" (白虎, báihǔ) is one of the Four Symbols (四象, sìxiàng) in Chinese cosmology, often associated with the west, metal, and in divination, with misfortune, injury, and death. showing the widespread application of "fortune-telling" in the daily lives of the common people at that time.

二是使用范围的扩大，覆盖社会生活的方方面面。无论是效率的提高，还是确定性的增加，最终目的都是为了更有效地满足当时人们的生活需求。《唐六典》指出：“凡阴阳杂占，吉凶悔吝，其类有九，决万民之犹豫；一曰嫁娶，二曰生产，三曰历注，四曰屋宅，五曰禄命，六曰拜官，七曰祠祭，八曰发病，九曰殡。”可见，在日常生活中，占卜决疑是当时民众普遍采取的一种方式。宋代关于“六壬术”的典籍《断案》记载了当时占卜预测的实践，其中案例涉及天气、家宅、事业、婚姻、胎产、求财、出行、失物、疾病等各个方面,显示出“算命术”在当时百姓生活中的广泛应用。

Third, "fortune-telling" began to be theorized, with the appearance of texts systematically discussing the theory of "fortune-telling." Before the Tang and Song dynasties, although the practice of "fortune-telling" existed, its techniques were limited to oral transmission between master and apprentice, and no works had been formed that provided theoretical argumentation and exposition. The Sui, Tang, and Song dynasties were the period when foundational works of "fortune-telling" emerged. Xiao Ji of the Sui Dynasty, in his *Great Meaning of the Five Elements*, systematically expounded the basic views on the Five Elements throughout history, connected them with the art of salary and fate, and summarized some calculation methods. Xu Daofu of the Tang Dynasty systematically summarized the calculation methods of "Liu Ren" divination and wrote the book *Mirror of the Heart of Da Liu Ren*, which became a standard for later practitioners. Xu Ziping of the Northern Song Dynasty systematically discussed the "Eight Characters" fortune-telling method, writing *The Ocean of the Ziping Method*, [7]7 "Prosperity and decline" (旺衰, wàngshuāi) refers to the waxing and waning of the "power" or "influence" of a symbol in Chinese divination systems, often based on seasonal or cyclical factors. covering its metaphysical basis, definition of basic concepts, and calculation methods.

三是“算命术”开始理论化，出现系统论述“算命术”理论的典籍。唐宋以前，尽管已经有了“算命术”的实践，但其技术仅限于师徒之间的口耳相传，并未形成从理论层面进行论证和阐述的著作。隋唐宋时期是“算命术”奠基性著作产生的时期。隋代萧吉的《五行大义》系统阐述了历史上关于五行的基本观点，并将其与禄命术联系起来，总结了一些推算方法。唐代徐道符系统总结了“六壬术”的推算方式，撰写了《大六壬心镜》一书，成为后世术家之圭臬。北宋徐子平系统论述了八字“算命术”,从形而上学根据、基本概念规定、推算方法撰写了《渊海子平》。

The development of "fortune-telling" is inseparable from the improvement of the level of social productive forces, the enrichment of people's life content, the overall improvement of cultural level, and technological progress. In periods when the level of social productive forces was low, agricultural production occupied the entire content of people's production. At this time, experience in agricultural production could basically guide life, and "fortune-telling" had little use for the common people, so its development was naturally limited. The development of productive forces liberated people's living time, allowing them to engage in cultural, commercial, and other activities. These activities all possess a certain degree of contingency and unpredictability, leading people to seek certainty through divination. Furthermore, the Sui, Tang, and Song dynasties were the period of the establishment and development of the imperial examination system. On the one hand, the establishment of the imperial examination system gave commoners the opportunity to enter officialdom through study, raising the overall cultural level of society, which was conducive to the formation of "fortune-telling theory." On the other hand, the lives of scholars participating in the imperial examinations faced enormous uncertainty, which also stimulated the growth and development of "fortune-telling." Additionally, important technological advances such as papermaking and printing also provided the material basis for recording and disseminating texts on "fortune-telling."

“算命术”的发展，与社会生产力水平提高、人民生活内容丰富、整体文化水平提高、技术进步等密不可分。在社会生产力水平不高的时期，农业生产占据人们生产的全部内容，此时农业生产中的经验基本上能够指导生活，“算命术”对于百姓来说并没有多少用武之地，其发展自然受到限制。而生产力的发展使人们的生活时间得到解放，能够从事文化、商业等方面的活动，这些活动都具有一定的偶然性和不可预知性，人们才会想通过占卜的方式获得确定性。另外，隋、唐、宋是科举制创立发展的时期，一方面，科举制的创立给了平民通过学习入仕的机会，提高了社会整体的文化水平，有利于“算命理论”的形成；另一方面，参加科举的学子的生活面对巨大的不确定性，也激发了“算命术”的生长和发展。另外，造纸术、印刷术等重要技术的进步，也为记载和推广“算命术”的典籍提供了物质上的基础。

(C) From the Ming and Qing Dynasties Onwards: Theoretical Perfection and Contention of a Hundred Schools of Thought

(三)明清以降：理论完善与百家争鸣

The Ming and Qing dynasties were periods of vigorous development for Chinese “fortune-telling.” With the further refinement of the imperial examination system, “fortune-telling” was no longer merely the preserve of itinerant charlatans making a living; a large number of intellectuals joined the “research ranks” of “fortune-telling” and authored books and established theories. The degree of theorization and systematization of “fortune-telling” reached a relatively high level, becoming a specialized “academic discipline.” [1]1 Li Chunfeng (602–670), Yuan Tiangang (d. 627), and Liu Bowen (1311–1375) were historical Chinese figures renowned as scholars, astronomers, and strategists, later mythologized as masters of divination and prophecy. Works on “fortune-telling” from this period reached new heights in the comprehensiveness of data collection, the rigor of theoretical structure, and the dialectical quality of argumentation. A famous work in the field of fate studies is *San Ming Tong Hui* (Comprehensive Compendium of the Three Fates), compiled and authored by Wan Minying, a *jinshi* degree holder of the Ming dynasty. [2]2 "Broadcasting nets" (广撒网, literally "casting a wide net") is a Chinese idiom describing a strategy of casting a wide net to catch fish, used here metaphorically to mean a broad, indiscriminate approach to targeting potential victims. This book first discusses that fate originates from a person’s “innate endowment,” providing a metaphysical philosophical argument for the concept of fate from the perspective of the “unity of Heaven and humanity.” [3]3 *Notes of the Thatched Abode of Close Scrutiny* (《阅微草堂笔记》) is a collection of classical Chinese stories and anecdotes by Ji Xiaolan, known for its supernatural and moral themes. “Fate is endowed by yin and yang; at the beginning of life, it cannot be altered by humans; it is not caused by action, nor is it within my control. Thus there are those born wealthy and noble; those born long-lived and those born short-lived; those born poor and those born lowly.” [4]4 This is a direct quotation from Ji Xiaolan's *Notes of the Thatched Abode of Close Scrutiny*. Secondly, it discusses the basic concepts used for calculation, such as the Heavenly Stems and Earthly Branches, the Five Elements, and the Spirits and Killers, [5]5 "Official ghost" (官鬼, guānguǐ) is a term in Chinese divination systems like the Six Lines (六爻, liùyáo), where it can represent both positive (official position) and negative (illness, pressure) aspects. explaining their origins, meanings, and functions. Thirdly, it combines daily life to discuss calculation methods for common matters, such as temperament, illness, official rank, wealth, and so on. Finally, the book also includes important essays and classic texts from the field of fate studies. Most later works on “fortune-telling” also follow this structural framework for discussion, presenting a systematic and complete theoretical system.

明、清时期是中国“算命术”蓬勃发展的时期。随着科举制度的进一步完善，“算命术”不再仅仅是江湖术士谋生的专利，大量知识分子加入“算命术”的“研究队伍”并且著书立说，“算命术”的理论化、系统化程度达到了较高的水平，俨然成为一门专业的“学术”。这一时期研究“算命术”的作品，在资料收集的全面性、理论结构的严密性、论述的思辨性方面，都达到了新的高度。命理学领域的著名作品有明代进士万民英编撰创作的《三命通会》。该书首先论述了命运来源于人的“先天禀赋”之性，从“天人合一”的角度对命运之说进行了形而上层面的哲学论证。“夫命禀于阴阳，有生之初，非人所能移，莫之为而为，非我所能。必于是有生而富，生而贵者；有生而寿，生而夭者；有生而贫，生而贱者。”其次，论述了用于推算的基本概念，如干支、五行、神煞，阐述其来源、含义、作用。再次，结合日常生活论述常用事项的推算方法，如性情、疾病、官禄、财富等等。最后，该书还收录了命理学领域的重要论文、典籍。后世关于“算命术”的作品，大多也是按照这个体例框架进行论述，呈现出一个系统完整的理论体系。

Within “fortune-telling,” there exist differences of opinion and theoretical contention, exhibiting the characteristic of “a hundred schools of thought contending.” [6]6 "White Tiger" (白虎, báihǔ) is one of the Four Symbols (四象, sìxiàng) in Chinese cosmology, often associated with the west, metal, and in divination, with misfortune, injury, and death. For example, the Ming dynasty scholar Zhang Nan’s book *Shen Feng Tong Kao* (Thorough Investigation of the Divine Peak) is a “polemical” work in the field of fate studies, in which he refutes what he considers errors in past fate studies and puts forward his own views. Looking at these differences and debates, they include disagreements in basic theory, such as the interaction relationships of the Heavenly Stems and Earthly Branches, the states of the Five Elements, and the methods for checking the Spirits and Killers. Different basic theories applied often lead to different conclusions. They also include differences in calculation methods; for example, some scholars believe that calculating fate should focus exclusively on the generation and overcoming of the Five Elements, rejecting other calculation methods, while other scholars advocate using various calculation methods simultaneously, each having its own strengths. When engaging in refutation and discussion, these scholars would both cite the principled discussions of ancient sages at the metaphysical level and use real cases of divinatory verification as supporting evidence. The existence of differences and debates has also led to the differentiation of different “paradigms” and “schools” within “fortune-telling,” each with its own followers and supporters. For example, within the Eight Characters “fortune-telling,” there exist schools such as the “Prosperity-Decline School,” the “Pattern School,” and the “Regulating Climate School.” [7]7 "Prosperity and decline" (旺衰, wàngshuāi) refers to the waxing and waning of the "power" or "influence" of a symbol in Chinese divination systems, often based on seasonal or cyclical factors. After thousands of years of development, the books and writings by Chinese literati and scholars on “fortune-telling” are truly voluminous.

在“算命术”内部，存在着观点的分歧和理论的争鸣，呈现出“百家争鸣”的特征。例如，明代学者张楠的《神峰通考》一书，就是命理学领域的“论战性”著作，其中批驳了他认为过去命理学中的错误，提出了自己的观点。纵观这些分歧和争论，包括基础理论方面的分歧，例如关于干支作用关系、五行状态、神煞查法等，应用的基础理论不同，往往会得出不同的结论。还包括推算方式的差异，例如有学者认为推算命运应当专注五行生克，排斥其他推算方式，也有的学者主张各种推算方式并举、各有所长等等。这些学者在进行辩驳和讨论时，既会援引先哲在形而上学层面进行的原理性论述，也会引用现实的占验案例进行佐证。分歧和争论的存在，也使得“算命术”内部区分开了不同的“范式”“流派”,不同的流派各有其信徒和支持者，例如在八字“算命术”内部，就存在“旺衰派”“格局派”“调候派”等流派。经过上千年的发展，我国文人学者关于“算命术”的书籍可谓汗牛充栋。

Due to the unscientific nature of “fortune-telling,” none of the various theories can actually make “fortune-telling” a stable and correct method of prediction. Nevertheless, many intellectuals still believe in it and flock to it. Even today, the theoretical evolution of “fortune-telling” remains “unfinished.” For instance, some scholars combine the latest achievements in physics, arguing for “fortune-telling” from the perspective of quantum mechanics at the metaphysical level. A representative example is the so-called “holographic universe theory,” which holds that there are connections between all things in the universe. This is essentially a modern repackaging of the ancient Chinese concept of the “unity of Heaven and humanity.” Other scholars have improved upon the technical and calculation method levels, proposing new calculation methods.

由于“算命术”的非科学性，各家学说实际上都不可能让“算命术”成为一种稳定的、正确的预测方式。但是，依然有不少知识分子对它比较信奉并涌入其中。直到今天，“算命术”的理论演进依然“未完结”。比如，有学者结合物理学发展的最新成果，从量子力学的角度对“算命术”做形而上学方面的论证，比较有代表性的是所谓的“全息宇宙论”,认为万事万物之间皆有联系，这实际上是对中国古代“天人合一”观念的现代包装。还有学者从技术、推算方式层面进行完善，提出了新的计算方法。

In summary, “fortune-telling” is a “predictive technique” that has continuously developed along with the development of productive forces, aimed at providing reference for people’s decision-making. Similarly, social progress has also provided the basic material conditions for the theoretical refinement of “fortune-telling.” Intellectuals with relatively high cultural quality have entered the field of “fortune-telling” research, causing it to exhibit a tendency towards pursuing disciplinarity, systematization, and rationalization, increasingly taking on a “scientific guise.”

综上所述，“算命术”是随着生产力发展而不断发展起来的、旨在为人们决策提供参考的一门“预测技术”。同样，社会的进步也为“算命术”的理论完善提供了基本的物质条件，具有较高文化素质的知识分子进入“算命术”研究领域，使之呈现出追求学科化、系统化、理性化的倾向，越来越具有“科学的外衣”。

In traditional society, due to the separation between social classes, poor information flow, and the overall low cultural level of society, the scholarly research on “fortune-telling” by intellectuals was difficult for the general public to understand. Therefore, the public’s perception of “fortune-telling” remained at an irrational stage, and those who believed in “fortune-telling” were often the most superstitious people. However, in the Internet age, this “scientific guise” has attracted a group of curious learners and researchers, and fortune-telling activities exhibit characteristics different from the past.

在传统社会，由于社会阶层之间相互区隔、信息流通不畅、社会整体文化水平不高，知识分子对于“算命术”的学理化研究难以被广大群众了解，因此群众对于“算命术”的认知只是停留在非理性的阶段，相信“算命术”的人往往是最容易迷信的人。但是，在互联网时代，这种“科学的外衣”却吸引了一批充满好奇的学习者、研究者，算命活动展现出不同以往的特征。

II. Contemporary Manifestations and Main Characteristics of Fortune-Telling Activities

二、算命活动的当代表现及其主要特征

When mentioning fortune-telling, what often comes to mind is the image of a fortune-teller setting up a stall by the roadside. But in the Internet age, cyberspace has become the main field for fortune-telling activities, and fortune-telling activities have also taken on a completely different appearance from the past.

提到算命，人们脑中浮现的往往是路边摆摊的算命先生的形象。但在互联网时代，网络空间已经成为算命活动展开的主要场域，算命活动也呈现出与过去完全不同的样貌。

(A) The Fortune-Telling and Divination Industry Has a Relatively Large Scale, Covering All Levels of the Market

(一)算命占卜产业规模较大，覆盖市场各个层面

Internet fortune-telling transcends the constraints of geography and time that limited past fortune-telling activities, allowing it to be conducted online in real time. In this way, the scope of business for practitioners who make a living from fortune-telling and divination has also expanded. As long as there is sufficient traffic, a large number of customers can be attracted. The output value of the fortune-telling and divination industry has developed rapidly in the Internet age. According to the owner of a platform providing Zhouyi services: “China has a population of about 1.4 billion. The target user group aged 16–50 accounts for about 45%, of which about 16% are paying users. Their average annual minimum spending on divination and fortune-telling is 1,000 yuan. Calculated together, this represents a market of over 100 billion yuan.” [8]8 Zhouyi (周易), also known as the I Ching or Book of Changes, is an ancient Chinese divination text and one of the oldest Chinese classics. Many people have seen the profit-making ability of the fortune-telling industry and have established companies providing related services, obtaining certain investments. According to statistics, from 2014 to 2018, about 20 divination and fate-study companies received investment, with the largest amount being 217.5 million yuan, and the rest ranging from several million to tens of millions of yuan.

互联网算命超越了过去算命活动受制于地域、时空的情况，可以在线上实时开展。这样，以算命占卜为业的从业者的经营范围也得到扩大。只要有充足的流量，就可以吸引到大量客源。算命占卜行业的产值在互联网时代得到快速发展。据一位经营周易服务平台的老板所言：“中国约有14亿人口，16—50岁的目标用户占比约45%,其中付费用户约16%,他们年均占卜算命最低消费为1000元，合计下来就是一个超1000亿的市场。”不少人看到了算命行业的赚钱能力，纷纷成立从事相关服务的公司，并获得一定的投资。据统计，2014—2018年，有20家左右的占卜命理类公司拿到投资，最多的拿到2.175亿，其余则在几千万到几百万不等。

Another reason the fortune-telling industry is so profitable is related to its broad market coverage. Simply put, at every consumption level, fortune-telling can find its audience and consumers. In current fortune-telling activities, one type is programmed fortune-telling relying on AI technology, targeting the low-end market. Consumers only need to enter the required information on a webpage, and the program will automatically perform the calculation. This mode of fortune-telling is often relatively cheap (mostly priced at numbers like 38, 68, 98 yuan), and the results obtained are relatively vague. However, because the price is relatively low, many people will also pay for it out of curiosity or for entertainment, just to give it a try. This type of fortune-telling often makes a profit through “volume,” and its advertisements are scattered throughout every corner of the Internet. For example, typing the word “fortune-telling” into a Baidu search will bring up related links. Furthermore, on other websites, there will also be information or advertisements leading to fortune-telling webpages.

算命行业之所以如此赚钱，还与其市场覆盖面广阔有关。简单来说，在每个消费阶层，算命都能找到它的受众和消费者。在当前的算命活动中，一种是面向低端市场的、依托AI技术的程序化算命，消费者只需要在网页上输入所需的信息，程序就会自动进行推算。这种算命模式收费往往比较廉价(大多为38、68、98等数字),得到的结果也相对模糊。但是，由于收费价格比较低廉，不少人抱着试一试或者娱乐好奇的态度也会进行付费。这类算命往往通过“走量”进行盈利，它们的广告遍布互联网各个角落。例如，在百度搜索中输入“算命”二字，就会弹出相关的链接。而且，在其他的一些网站上，也会存在引导至算命网页的信息或广告。

The other type is the high-end fortune-telling industry, where fortune-tellers use their mastery of “fortune-telling” skills to perform manual fortune-telling. Because this mode involves close, one-on-one, targeted communication with the consumer, the results obtained are relatively more specific. Similarly, the fees for this mode are relatively high, ranging from several hundred to several thousand yuan depending on factors such as the fortune-teller’s skill level, reputation, and service duration. Some divinations involving major business decisions can even command exorbitant prices of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of yuan. Those who purchase this type of fortune-telling service are often from relatively well-off groups, such as civil servants, doctors, lawyers, and business owners. Comparatively, people have a higher degree of recognition for the second mode, believing it to be “more skilled” and “more accurate,” while considering the first mode as merely “giving some ambiguous words.” Some consumers with long-term needs for fortune-telling will also establish monthly or yearly continuous contact with trusted fortune-tellers. The fortune-tellers that many news reports have exposed as being contacted by political and business figures basically belong to this category. These fortune-telling practitioners often accumulate a large network of personal connections through word-of-mouth from clients, enjoy a higher social status, and easily amass significant wealth. Some political and business figures can even build certain social circles through fortune-tellers.

另一种则是走高端路线的算命产业，算命先生凭借掌握的“算命术”技能进行人工算命。这种算命模式由于和消费者进行近距离、一对一、针对性交流，得到的结果相对比较具体。同样，这种模式收费也比较高，根据算命先生的水平、名气、服务时长等因素，费用有几百到上千元不等，一些涉及重大商业决策的占算甚至可以开出几万乃至几十万的天价。购买这种算命服务的，往往也是物质条件比较宽裕的群体，例如公务员、医生、律师、企业主等。比较而言，人们对于第二种模式的认可度比较高，认为“更有技术”“更准确”,而认为第一种模式只是“给出一些模棱两可的话”。有些对于算命有长期需要的消费者，还会与信任的算命师傅建立起包月包年的持续联系。很多新闻报道中揭露出来的政商人员所接触的算命师傅，基本上都属于这一类。这类算命从业者往往经过客户的口耳相传积累了较大的人脉关系网，社会地位较高，也容易收获大量财富。有些政商人员甚至可以通过算命师傅构建一定的社交圈。

(2) Formation of Fixed Communities, Carrying Out Fortune-Telling Study and Exchange Activities

(二)形成固定社群，开展算命学习、交流活动

Due to the development of information technology, particularly the development of e-books, ancient Chinese texts related to "fortune-telling" have become accessible to more people. Consequently, many believe that, because documentary support exists, "fortune-telling" is real and has value for study. These learners who believe "fortune-telling" is real, relying on forums, groups, and public platforms, establish study communities, carrying out activities such as seeking masters, taking disciples, giving lessons, and teaching. The study communities for "fortune-telling" can be divided into two types. One type is centralized, a study community established around a fortune-telling master who has a certain reputation in the industry; the fortune-telling master acts as the teacher, while other learners are disciples and students. The other type is decentralized, an exchange-oriented study forum organized by the learners themselves; learners share study experiences, exchange divination insights, and so on in the group.

由于信息技术的发展，特别是电子书的发展，使中国古代与“算命术”相关的典籍得以被更多的人接触到。不少人因此认为，由于存在文献的支持，“算命术”是真实存在的，有学习的价值。这些相信“算命术”真的存在的学习者，以论坛、群组、公众平台为依托，组建学习社群，进行拜师、收徒、授课、教学等活动。“算命术”的学习社群又可以分成两类，一类是中心化的，是以业内有一定声誉的算命师傅为核心建立起来的学习社群，算命师傅充当老师的角色，而其他学习者则是徒弟、学生。另一类是去中心化的，是学习者自己组织起来的交流性学习论坛，学习者会在群里分享学习心得、交流占算体会等等。

"Fortune-telling" teaching itself has developed into an industry. Many fortune-telling masters, while carrying out fortune-telling business, also carry out teaching business for fortune-telling techniques. In some cases, the income from fortune-telling teaching is even more profitable than the fortune-telling business itself. The price of fortune-telling teaching also depends on the industrial model, the master's technical level and reputation, and so on. Some fortune-telling teaching operates on a "volume" basis, accumulating a large amount of traffic by establishing group chats and purchasing advertisements, thereby obtaining substantial income at a relatively low unit price. Some are individually operated by the master, with the master personally teaching, so the fees are relatively high; a few days of courses can cost several thousand or even tens of thousands of yuan.

“算命术”教学本身已经发展成为一种产业。不少算命师傅在开展算命业务的同时，还开展算命技术的教学业务。在一些情况下，甚至算命教学的收入比算命业务本身还要赚钱。算命教学的价格也取决于产业模式、师傅的技术水平和知名度等。有的算命教学是“走量”的，通过建立群聊、购买广告，积累大量的流量，从而在单价较低的情况下获得大量收入。有的是师傅个体经营的，由师傅自己亲自教学，因此收费较贵，几日的课程收费能达到数千乃至数万元。

Fortune-telling teaching and fortune-telling itself have a mutually reinforcing and influencing relationship. On the one hand, seekers who have had "miraculously accurate" experiences often become interested in "fortune-telling" itself, recognize the authenticity and effectiveness of "fortune-telling," and thus develop the idea of studying "fortune-telling" to master their own destiny, subsequently participating in "fortune-telling" study communities. On the other hand, people who participate in fortune-telling technique study activities are often loyal believers in "fortune-telling"; when they encounter confusion or bewilderment in life, because their own skills are poor and they find it difficult to resolve their own doubts, they also usually seek help from professional fortune-telling masters. That is to say, the seekers of fortune-telling activities and the learners have a very high degree of overlap; the two types of roles are easily transformed into each other. The close integration of fortune-telling study and fortune-telling practice enhances user stickiness for fortune-telling activities and also strengthens the fortune-teller's trust in "fortune-telling" itself.

算命教学和算命本身存在着相互促进、相互影响的关系。一方面，有着“神验”经历的求测者往往会对“算命术”本身产生兴趣，认可“算命术”的真实性和有效性，从而萌生学习“算命术”、掌握自身命运的念头，随后参与“算命术”的学习社群。另一方面，参与算命技术学习活动的人，往往也是“算命术”的忠实信众，当他们在生活中遇到困惑、迷茫的时候，由于自己的技术不佳，难以为自己解惑，也通常会寻求专业算命师傅的帮助。也就是说，算命活动的求测者和学习者具有极高的重合度，两类角色之间很容易相互转化。算命学习与算命实践的紧密结合，提升算命活动的用户黏性，也强化了算命者对于“算命术”本身的信任。

(3) The Younger, More Highly Educated, and More Rational Demographics of Fortune-Telling

(三)算命人群的年轻化、高知化、理性化

Currently, the demographics of fortune-telling are becoming increasingly younger. Some scholars have studied and measured the age distribution of the largest domestic fortune-telling forum, finding the average age to be 27, proving that the current online fortune-telling group is primarily composed of young people. Through research on some fortune-telling technique study communities, the author found that among the learners of "fortune-telling," university students and graduate students constitute a considerable proportion, and there are even some high school students. Young people are often full of curiosity about novel things, making it easier for them to come into contact with metaphysics like "fortune-telling," and because young people are relatively familiar with the internet, they can quickly find corresponding online communities and establish connections with other "fortune-telling" learners.

当前，算命人群越来越年轻化。有学者研究测量了国内最大算命论坛的年龄分布，发现平均年龄在27岁，证明当前网络算命群体以青年人为主。笔者通过对一些算命技术学习社群的调研发现，在“算命术”的学习者中，大学生和研究生占据了相当的比例，甚至还有一些高中生。年轻人往往对新奇事物充满好奇，更容易接触到“算命术”等玄学，并且由于年轻人对互联网比较熟悉，能够迅速找到相应的互联网社群、与其他“算命术”学习者建立起联系。

According to some related research and reports, the main audience for fortune-telling and divination consists of people with high educational backgrounds and high levels of knowledge. According to a practitioner who has long been engaged in fortune-telling and prediction work, the clients he serves are basically "upper-middle class and above," covering occupations such as enterprise managers, civil servants, university teachers, and doctors. As for the fortune-tellers the author has come into contact with, the vast majority have a certain level of education, have good classical Chinese reading ability, and many have a university degree or above, also including some returned overseas master's and doctoral students. Furthermore, some study classes with "fortune-telling" as the main content, which recruit students from society, are mainly targeted at "social elites" engaged in industries such as enterprise management, law, and civil service. These phenomena all indicate that currently, engaging in fortune-telling activities, whether in practice or study, has shown a phenomenon of becoming more highly educated.

根据一些相关研究和报道，算命占卜的主要受众是具有高学历、高知识的人群。据一位长期从事算命预测工作的从业者所说，他服务的客户基本属于“中产以上”,涵盖企业管理人员、公务员、大学老师、医生等职业。而笔者所接触到的一些算命先生，绝大多数都有一定的文化水平，有较好的古文阅读能力，并且不少有大学以上文凭，还包括一些海归硕士、博士等。此外，在面向社会招生的一些以“算命术”为主要内容的学习班，主要面向的也多是从事企业管理、法律、公务员等行业的“社会精英”。这些现象都表明，当前从事算命活动，无论是实践还是学习，都出现了高知化的现象。

Corresponding to the younger and more highly educated demographics, another characteristic of current fortune-telling activities is rationalization. As mentioned earlier, the people currently associated with fortune-telling activities are those who possess a certain level of scientific knowledge literacy, critical thinking, and rational cognitive ability. Their attitude towards fortune-telling activities is no longer "blind belief," but rather a discerning and selective belief, serving their own rational purposes. Seekers who resort to fortune-telling do not expect "fortune-telling" to help them get rich or change their fate; they only hope to solve specific problems at specific times, such as what difficulties they might encounter in an interview and how they should prepare in advance. As for the learners of fortune-telling techniques, their purpose is only to master a method for observing their own destiny, to have a certain degree of predictability in life, and to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages. In the view of contemporary people, resorting to fortune-telling does not mean giving up effort, but rather better choosing the timing and direction of effort.

与受众年轻化、高知化相对应，当前算命活动的另一特征是理性化。如前所述，当前与算命活动相关的人是具备一定程度科学知识素养、批判性思维、理性认知能力的人群，他们对于算命活动的态度不再是“盲信”,而是有甄别、有选择地相信，服务于自身的理性目的。求助于算命的求测者，并不指望“算命术”能够帮助自己发财、改命，而只是希望解决特定时刻的具体问题，例如一次面试自己会遇到哪些困难、应该如何提前预备等等。而算命技术的学习者，其目的也只是掌握一门观察自己命运的方法，对于人生能具有一定的可预见性，实现趋利避害。在当代人看来，求助算命并不意味着放弃努力，而是更好地选择努力的时机和方向。

The emergence of this phenomenon inevitably raises the question: why do people with high scientific literacy and rich knowledge reserves also believe in fortune-telling? In fact, the reason modern people are willing to believe in fortune-telling is largely because they do not consider fortune-telling to be superstition, but rather consider fortune-telling to be "science." The "science" here does not refer to "computer fortune-telling" or "scientific fortune-telling" mentioned in some studies, i.e., fortune-telling using modern scientific means, but rather the belief that "fortune-telling is based on scientific thinking and scientific methods." Some scholars, through research, have collected viewpoints stating: "'The Book of Changes is a science; it is a precious legacy left by our China over thousands of years. It concentrates the wisdom of the Chinese nation.' 'Our feng shui all conforms to the laws of physics. It is not superstition; having been passed down for thousands of years, it must have its value.'" Some practitioners in the fortune-telling industry even use the achievements of modern physics to endorse it. They believe that the development of modern physics, especially "quantum mechanics" and "the theory of relativity," proves the legitimacy of "fortune-telling." Among these, quantum mechanics confirms the "unity of heaven and humanity"; although there is no causal relationship in the sense of classical mechanics between the hexagrams and individual events, there is an entanglement relationship, thus they possess the function of predicting good or bad fortune. The space-time view of the theory of relativity indicates that the information shown by the hexagrams is no longer a baseless unknown existence, but a known existence that has become reality in other space-times, so the content of fortune-telling is objective and certain, not guesswork or imagination.

出现这一现象不禁令人疑惑，为何科学素养高、知识储备丰富的人，也迷信算命?事实上，现代人愿意去相信算命，很大程度上是因为他们不认为算命是迷信，而认为算命是“科学”。这里的“科学”不是一些研究提到的“电脑算命”“科学算命”,即借助现代科学手段的算命，而是认为“算命建立在科学思维、科学方法基础之上”。有学者通过调研收集到的观点认为：“‘周易是一门科学，它是咱中国多少年来留下的宝贵遗产。它集中了中华民族的智慧。’‘我们风水学的都符合物理规律。不是迷信，千年流传下来，肯定有它的价值。’”一些从事算命行业的从业者，甚至拿出现代物理学的成果背书。他们认为，现代物理学特别是“量子力学”“相对论”的发展证明了“算命术”的合法性。其中，量子力学确证了“天人合一”,卦象尽管与个人的事件之间不存在经典力学意义上的因果关系，却存在纠缠关系，因而具有预测吉凶的功能。相对论的时空观则表明，卦象所显示的信息不再是毫无根据的未知存在，而是在其他时空已经成为现实的已知存在，故算命的内容是客观、确定的，不是猜测、想象的。

Precisely because of the existence of these viewpoints, two completely different currents of thought have formed around fortune-telling theory, both believing the other to be wrong, superstitious, and ignorant. There is no need to say much about those who oppose fortune-telling, but those who approve of fortune-telling often prove that fortune-telling is indeed real based on its theoretical foundation and their own actual fortune-telling experiences. This indicates that the psychological mechanism by which people believe in fortune-telling has completely changed, shifting from the past irrational, unscientific "superstition" to a rational "belief" that recognizes it as scientific. This transformation means that to make modern people give up fortune-telling superstition through persuasion, education, and reasoning, one cannot stop at external criticism and analysis, but must delve deep into its internal theory, clearly explaining the unscientific and pseudo-scientific nature of "fortune-telling," only then can the level of anti-superstition education be improved, true scientific thinking be established, and scientific literacy be enhanced.

正是由于这些观点的存在，围绕算命学说形成了两种完全不同的思潮，两者都认为对方是错误的、迷信的、愚昧的。反对算命者自不必多说，而认可算命者往往从算命的理论基础、自己的实际算命体验出发证明算命确有其事。这表明，人们相信算命的心理机制已经完全发生了改变，已经从过去的非理性、非科学式的“迷信”转变成为理性的、认同其是科学的“相信”。这种转变意味着，想要通过说服教育说理的方式让现代人放弃算命迷信，不能停留于外在的批判和分析，而是深入其理论内部，讲明白“算命术”的非科学、伪科学本质，由此才能提高反迷信教育水平、树立真正的科学思维、提高科学素养。

3. The Pseudo-Scientific Nature of "Fortune-Telling"

三、“算命术”的伪科学本质

The so-called "scientific" cloak of "fortune-telling" cannot conceal its pseudo-scientific nature. "Fortune-telling" seems to have an impeccable theoretical foundation and rigorous and reasonable calculation methods, and even provides "verification" through a feedback system. However, through detailed analysis, it will be found that all the bases used to prove its "scientific nature" contain irresolvable contradictions, which determines that "fortune-telling" is not true science, but a deceptive pseudo-science.

“算命术”所谓“科学”的外衣无法掩盖其伪科学的本质。“算命术”看似理论基础无懈可击、推算方式严密合理，甚至凭借反馈体系提供“验证”,但通过细致分析会发现，这些能证明其“科学性”的依据都存在无法解决的矛盾，这就决定了“算命术”不是真正的科学，而是具有迷惑性的伪科学。

(1) The Contradictory Nature of the Theoretical Foundation

(一)理论基础的矛盾性

The reason "fortune-telling" believes that fate can be grasped stems from the subjectively established theories of "innate endowment" and "unity of heaven and humanity." Its theoretical essence lies in the belief that symbols formed in a specific time and space can synchronously reflect a person's fate, and modern people have provided it with a cloak of modern physics. However, using the theories of "innate endowment" and "unity of heaven and humanity" to explain the rationality of "fortune-telling" falls into self-contradiction.

“算命术”之所以认为命运可以把握，乃是出于主观设定的“先天禀赋”论和“天人合一”论，其理论本质乃是认为特定时空形成的符号可以同步反映人的命运走向，现代人又为其提供了一个现代物理学的外衣。但是，以“先天禀赋”论和“天人合一”论解释“算命术”的合理性，会陷入自相矛盾。

The "theory of innate endowment" holds that a person's birth time can determine their entire life's fate, and thus calculations are made by deriving the "Eight Characters,"[1]1 Li Chunfeng (602–670), Yuan Tiangang (d. 627), and Liu Bowen (1311–1375) were historical Chinese figures renowned as scholars, astronomers, and strategists, later mythologized as masters of divination and prophecy. "fate chart," or "astrological chart" from the birth time. But if different people are all born at the same time, does this mean these people have the same endowment and therefore the same fate? This is the famous "Four Identical Characters" problem within the fortune-telling circle. Some viewpoints hold that people born at the same time with the same Eight Characters indeed have roughly similar fates, differing only in scale or quantity. This viewpoint has been refuted by actual examples: people born at the same time can have vastly different occupations, levels of wealth, and health conditions. Another viewpoint holds that the reason for the Four Identical Characters problem is that the birth time is not specific enough, only accurate to a two-hour period; if calculations were precise down to the hour, minute, and second, then fate could be accurately predicted. Whether this viewpoint is correct or not, it effectively negates the current scientific nature of "fortune-telling," because this viewpoint actually affirms that "fate cannot be accurately calculated using only the year, month, day, and hour of birth." Before "fortune-telling" develops a more precise model, it remains erroneous and useless.

“先天禀赋论”认为人的出生时间能够决定人一生的命运，因而通过出生时间来排出“八字”“命盘”或“星盘”来进行推算。但是，如果不同的人皆在同一个时间出生，那么是不是意味着这些人有着相同的禀赋，因而具有相同的命运?这就是“算命术”圈子内有名的“四同八字”问题。有的观点认为，出生时间相同、具有相同八字的人，确实具有大致相似的命运，只有大小、数量的区分。这一观点已经得到了实例的反驳，相同时间出生的人，从事的行业、贫富的层次、身体健康状况可以有很大的差别。还有的观点认为，之所以存在四同八字的问题，是因为出生时间还不够具体，只能精确到一个时辰(两个小时),倘若精确计算到时、分、秒，那么就足以精确的预测命运了。这一观点无论正确与否，都在事实上否定了当前“算命术”的科学性，因为这一观点实际上肯定了“仅凭出生年月日时算不准命运”,在“算命术”尚未开发出更精确的模型之前，它都是错误的、无用的。

A currently influential "defense" comes from Ji Xiaolan of the Qing Dynasty.[2]2 "Broadcasting nets" (广撒网, literally "casting a wide net") is a Chinese idiom describing a strategy of casting a wide net to catch fish, used here metaphorically to mean a broad, indiscriminate approach to targeting potential victims. In his *Notes of the Thatched Abode of Close Scrutiny*,[3]3 *Notes of the Thatched Abode of Close Scrutiny* (《阅微草堂笔记》) is a collection of classical Chinese stories and anecdotes by Ji Xiaolan, known for its supernatural and moral themes. he recorded a case of the same Eight Characters but different fates. One was his nephew, the other the son of his servant. Both were born in the same year, month, day, hour, minute, and even second. One was the descendant of an official and noble, the other a menial servant; their fates were clearly as different as heaven and earth. But Ji Xiaolan observed that although his nephew was born into a good family, he died very young, while his servant's son lived to a very old age. Based on this, Ji Xiaolan believed that a person's birth time determines the "total amount" of their fate, but how this "total amount" manifests is uncertain. Any good fortune in a person's life consumes this "total amount." When the "total amount" is exhausted, the person's good luck is gone. "Is it not that the allotted fortune endowed by this fate has only this fixed amount? The nephew grew up in wealth and honor, consuming it first; the servant boy grew up in poverty and lowliness, consuming little, so his fortune is not yet exhausted, is it?"[4]4 This is a direct quotation from Ji Xiaolan's *Notes of the Thatched Abode of Close Scrutiny*. Specifically in Ji Xiaolan's own case, the "total amount" of good fortune for his nephew and the servant was the same; it was just that his nephew used it on his birth and official rank, while the servant used it on longevity.

目前较有影响力的“辩解”来自清朝的纪晓岚。他在《阅微草堂笔记》中记载了一则同八字不同命运的案例，一为他的侄子，一为他的仆人之子，两者出生年、月、日、时、分甚至秒都相同，但一个是官贵后代，一个是奴仆之流，命运明显天差地别。但是纪晓岚观察到，他的侄子虽然出身很好，但很早就去世了，而他的仆人之子却非常长寿。纪晓岚据此认为，人的出生时间规定了人的命运的“总量”,但这个“总量”体现在哪些方面，是不一定的，任何人生的好运气都是对这个“总量”的消耗，当“总量”耗尽的时候，人的好运就没有了。“岂非此命所赋之禄，只有此数。侄生长富贵，消耗先尽；奴子生长贫贱，消耗无多，禄尚未尽耶?”具体到纪晓岚自己的案例，他的侄子和仆人好运气的“总量”是一致的，只不过自己侄子用到了出身、官贵上，而仆人用到了长寿上。

Although theoretically this explanation seems compelling, Ji Xiaolan's move also constitutes a negation of current "fortune-telling." The reason is that current "fortune-telling" still only uses the birth year, month, day, and hour to infer fate, and cannot know where these good fortunes will manifest. If one does not know where they will manifest, how can one speak of knowing fate? Some fortune-telling practitioners try to answer this question, arguing that other variables should be introduced for calculation, such as direction or the color of clothing. But this creates another contradiction, because this explanation only applies to individual practitioners, not to the body of practitioners as a whole. Suppose two people with the same Eight Characters each go to two different fortune-tellers for a reading. Since the two fortune-tellers do not know of each other's existence, they will inevitably use general methods for calculation and arrive at the same fate. But we know that the fates of these two people are definitely different.

尽管从理论上来说解释有力，但纪晓岚此举也是对当前“算命术”的否定。原因在于，当前“算命术”依然只是在用出生年月日时推断人的命运，并不能知道这些好运都应验在了何方。如果不知道应验的位置，那么谈何知晓命运呢?有一些算命从业者试图回答这个问题，他们认为应该引入其他的变量来进行测算，例如方位、穿衣服的颜色等。但是这又会产生矛盾，因为这种解释只适用于从业者个人，不适用于从业者整体，假设有两个相同八字的人分别找到两个算命先生进行测算，由于两个算命先生不知道对方的存在，必然是用一般的方法进行推算，得出相同的命运，但是我们知道这两个人的命运肯定是不同的。

The problem with the "unity of heaven and humanity" theory is similar to that of the "innate endowment" theory. Even if we affirm the premise of the "unity of heaven and humanity" theory—that fate can indeed be inferred from the hexagrams of a specific time and space—how should we handle a situation where different people ask about the same thing using the same hexagram? Some practitioners still say to look for other variables, such as birth year, gender, direction, etc. But if two practitioners, unaware of each other, face the same hexagram and the same question, will they still arrive at the same conclusion? If so, how can the scientific nature and uniqueness of the inferred conclusion be guaranteed?

“天人合一”论的问题与“先天禀赋”论类似。即使我们肯定“天人合一”论的前提，即从特定时空的卦象中确实可以推断出命运。但是，如果一个卦象不同的人来问相同的事情，又该如何处理?有的从业者还是说要找其他的变量，例如出生年份、性别、方位等，但是假设两个从业者都不知道对方的存在，面对同样卦象的同样问题，还会得出同样的结论吗?这样一来，如何保证推算结论的科学性和唯一性呢?

(II) The Uncertainty of Calculation Methods

(二)推算方式的不确定性

The symbolic system used in "fortune-telling" calculations is a composite conceptual system with multiple layers of meaning. The advantage of this symbolic system is that, in theory, it can calculate so-called "details," that is, the specific scenarios in which good or bad fortune manifests. This kind of promotion can attract a large number of people interested in "fortune-telling" to learn, study, and try it. However, this promotion can only be theoretical; what is possible in theory does not mean it is achievable in practice. In the practice of "fortune-telling," the composite and multi-layered nature of the symbolic system actually becomes the source of the vagueness and uncertainty of "fortune-telling."

“算命术”推算用到的符号体系是一种复合式的、具有多重象征意义的概念系统，这种符号体系的好处是在理论上可以算到所谓的“细节”,也就是吉凶应验的具体情景，这种宣传能够吸引大量对“算命术”感兴趣的人去学习、研究、尝试。但是，这种宣传只能是理论上的，理论上能做到不代表现实中也能做到。在“算命术”实践中，符号体系的复合型和多重性反而成为“算命术”模糊性和不确定性的根源。

First, the uncertainty of individual symbols themselves. In "fortune-telling," a single symbol has multiple dimensions of meaning, and some of these meanings are contradictory. Take the symbol "official ghost"[5]5 "Official ghost" (官鬼, guānguǐ) is a term in Chinese divination systems like the Six Lines (六爻, liùyáo), where it can represent both positive (official position) and negative (illness, pressure) aspects. as an example. Its meanings include pressure, illness, pain, restriction, official luck, position, and husband. We can see that the same "official ghost" symbol can simultaneously represent information about good fortune or bad fortune. Representing illness is bad fortune; representing official luck is good fortune. So, in practice, if one divines the "official ghost," does it mean this person has official luck, or does it mean this person has an illness? No one knows.

一是个别符号本身的不确定性。在“算命术”中，单独的一个符号有着多重维度的象意，有些象意之间存在着矛盾关系。以符号“官鬼”为例，它的象意有压力、疾病、疼痛、限制、官运、职位、丈夫等。我们可以发现，同样的官鬼符号，可以同时代表吉或凶的信息，代表疾病就是凶，代表官运就是吉。那么，在实践中如果占到“官鬼”,究竟是说这个人有官运呢，还是这个人有疾病呢?没人知道。

Second, the uncertainty of symbol combinations. In "fortune-telling," even if the meaning of an individual symbol is determined, the combination of symbols also has uncertainty. Take the symbol "White Tiger"[6]6 "White Tiger" (白虎, báihǔ) is one of the Four Symbols (四象, sìxiàng) in Chinese cosmology, often associated with the west, metal, and in divination, with misfortune, injury, and death. as an example. In "fortune-telling," it represents illness, injury, disaster, and mourning. If one divines the "White Tiger," it is an omen of great misfortune. However, in "fortune-telling" theory, the usage of "White Tiger" also has variations. Suppose the White Tiger is restrained; then it is not so ominous. This seems relatively clear. But if "White Tiger" is combined with "prosperity and decline,"[7]7 "Prosperity and decline" (旺衰, wàngshuāi) refers to the waxing and waning of the "power" or "influence" of a symbol in Chinese divination systems, often based on seasonal or cyclical factors. it becomes less clear. Some viewpoints hold that when "White Tiger" is combined with "prosperity," it means the White Tiger's power is very strong and fierce; at this time, the White Tiger is the most ominous and causes the most severe harm. But there is also an opposing viewpoint that when "White Tiger" is combined with "decline," it means the White Tiger is in a "hungry" state; at this time, the White Tiger is the most ominous. Conversely, a "prosperous" White Tiger represents a tiger in a satiated state that will not harm people. The reason for these two opposing viewpoints is that "prosperity" and "decline" adopt different meanings. The former understands "prosperity and decline" from the perspective of "strength of power," while the latter understands it from the perspective of "degree of satiety." Theoretically, both statements are valid, but they are contradictory. If such a theory is used as a guide, it is impossible to reach a definitive conclusion.

二是符号组合的不确定性。在“算命术”中，即使单独符号意思确定了，符号组合也有不确定性。以符号“白虎”为例，它在“算命术”中代表疾病、伤灾、凶丧，如果占到了“白虎”,是大凶之兆。但是，在“算命术”理论中，“白虎”的用法也有变化。假设白虎受到克制，那么就没有那么凶。这似乎比较明确，但是如果将“白虎”和“旺衰”组合在一起，就没有那么明确了。有的观点认为，“白虎”与“旺”组合在一起的时候，代表这个白虎力量很大很凶猛，这时候白虎是最凶的，伤人是最严重的。但也有相反的观点认为，“白虎”与“衰”组合在一起的时候，代表这个白虎处于“饥饿”的状态，这时候白虎才是最凶的，反而“旺”的白虎代表这个虎是饱食状态，是不会伤害人的。之所以有这两种相反的观点，是因为旺、衰取用了不同的象意，前者是从“力量大小”的角度理解旺衰，而后者是从“饱食程度”的角度理解旺衰，从理论上说，这两个说法都是成立的，但是又相互矛盾。如果用这种理论来指导，不可能得出确定性的结论。

Third, the uncertainty of symbols as applied to real life. "Fortune-telling" holds that the same hexagram has different meanings for different people, different matters, and different eras. In practice, this also creates ambiguity in inference. For example, if a person with an official position comes for divination and gets the "official ghost," it does not mean they will fall ill, but rather that they will be promoted. However, if a person without an official position gets the "official ghost," it means this person will fall ill. The problem is that this requires a comprehensive understanding of the inquirer's information, which in effect infinitely complicates the divination process and is completely impractical in practice. This determines that, although the theory of "fortune-telling" appears complete, in practice it still relies on feeling to "guess" and "fumble," and cannot actually use the complexity that these theories claim.

三是符号落实在现实生活中的不确定性。“算命术”认为，相同的卦象对于不同的人、不同的事、不同的时代来说有不同的意义。在实践中，这也会造成推断的模糊性。例如，如果一名有官之人来占卜，算到了“官鬼”,不代表他会生病，而是说要升官。但是，如果一名没有官职的人算到了“官鬼”,就代表这个人要生病。问题在于，这要求对于问卜者信息的全面了解，实际上是把占卜流程无限复杂化了，在实践中根本不可行。这就决定了，尽管“算命术”理论看似完善，但实践中仍然是凭借感觉来“猜”“蒙”,根本用不上这些理论所宣称的复杂性。

In the practice of "fortune-telling," the result of this uncertainty is that many practitioners claim to be able to predict fate with precision and produce relevant cases as support. However, these cases are not reproducible for other practitioners, because different practitioners have different understandings and uses of the symbols. Among the multiple lines of thought that conform to the "fortune-telling" calculation method, often only one corresponds to the actual outcome, but before the outcome occurs, no one knows which line of thought will correspond. Therefore, according to reports from many learners of "fortune-telling," in actual divination practice there are frequent situations of "uncertainty," "daring not to make a judgment," and "inability to judge accurately." It is often the case that "after the event, one can fabricate reasons with evidence, but before the event, holding the hexagram, one does not know where to start." The reason for this situation is that the symbols and operational rules of "fortune-telling" are themselves contradictory yet each is self-consistent, making them elusive. Many practitioners who call themselves "divine calculators" merely take the cases they have "calculated correctly" and boast about them loudly, giving "explanations" and "replays" with great fanfare, while remaining silent about erroneous cases. Clearly, this calculation method, characterized by ambiguity, uncertainty, and multiple interpretations, has not made "fortune-telling" more scientific; on the contrary, it has moved it further away from science.

在“算命术”实践中，这种不确定性导致的结果是，很多从业者宣称自己能够精准的预测命运，并且拿出相关案例作为支撑。但是这些案例对于其他从业者来说都不具备复现的意义，因为不同从业者对于符号的理解不同、用法不同。在多种符合“算命术”推算方式的思路中，往往只有一种对应现实的结果，但在结果发生之前，谁也不知道哪种思路能够对应。因此，据不少“算命术”的学习者反映，在现实占卜实践中经常存在“不确定”“不敢下判断”“断不准”的情况，经常是“事后附会有理有据，事前拿到卦不知如何下手”。之所以存在这种情况，就是因为“算命术”的符号和运算法则本身相互矛盾却又各自自圆其说，令人无法捉摸。不少自称“神算”的从业者，也只不过是把自己“算对”的案例拿出来大肆吹嘘，有模有样地进行“讲解”和“复盘”,而对于错误的案例只字不提。显然，这种具有模糊性、不确定性、多重解释性的推算方式，并未将“算命术”变得更科学，反而使其距离科学越来越远。

(3) The Ambiguity of Verification Methods

(三)验证手段的模糊性

The philosopher Karl Popper believed: "The criterion of the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability, or refutability, or testability." So-called "falsifiability" means that a scientific theory must be capable of being overturned and must be fallible; otherwise, it is not science. For example, theology is not science, because the gods and deities proclaimed by theology cannot be falsified through experience, and thus can only be called a belief. Judging by this standard, some techniques that call themselves "fortune-telling" indeed fail to meet this standard, which can be explained by the "Barnum effect" pointed out in psychology. These fortune-telling techniques only provide relatively abstract, macroscopic answers, and anyone who hears them feels they are about themselves. In such a case, there is no question of verification or falsification, so they can only be regarded as a form of entertainment. However, the seemingly "scientific" "fortune-telling" we analyzed above is not affected by this critique. This kind of "fortune-telling" claims that the results of its calculations are all falsifiable: right is right, wrong is wrong, and therefore it possesses scientificity. This claim appears reasonable from an intuitive perspective, because each judgment given by a fortune-telling practitioner can indeed be empirically confirmed. But from the perspective of the practice of "fortune-telling," even if the fortune-teller makes mistakes every day, there are still faithful believers who trust the scientificity and accuracy of "fortune-telling." The reason for this, besides the scientific appearance of "fortune-telling" mentioned above, is an important factor: the ambiguity of verification methods.

哲学家卡尔·波普尔认为：“衡量一种理论的科学地位的标准是它的可证伪性或可反驳性或可检验性。”所谓“可证伪性”是说，一种科学理论必须是可推翻、可错的，否则就不是科学。例如，神学就不是科学，因为神学宣称的上帝、神明都无法通过经验来证伪，故而只能称其为一种信仰。以这种标准来看，一些自称为“算命”的技术确实达不到这一标准，这可以用心理学所指出的“巴纳姆效应”来解释。这些算命技术只提供比较抽象、宏观的答案，谁听见都会觉得说的是自己。在这种情况下，就谈不上证实或证伪，故而只能被看作一种娱乐方式。但是，我们上述分析的、看似“科学”的“算命术”,却不受到这种批判的影响。这种“算命术”宣称，自己测算的结果都是可证伪的，对就是对，错就是错，因而具有科学性。这种说法从直观的角度看是合理的，因为算命从业者给出的每一条判断，确实可以从经验上加以确认。但是从“算命术”的实践来看，即使算命先生天天算错，依然有忠实的信徒相信“算命术”的科学性和准确性。其中缘由，除了上文提到的“算命术”的科学外观外，还有一个重要的原因就是验证手段的模糊性。

First, as another philosopher of science, Lakatos, stated:

第一，正如另一位科学哲学家拉卡托斯所言：

"Popper's standard ignores the remarkable tenacity of scientific theories. Scientists have thick skins. They do not abandon a theory merely because facts contradict it. They usually invent some rescue hypothesis to explain what they then call a mere anomaly." Theories have a certain tolerance for any negative cases. When a theory encounters a negative case, it does not necessarily mean the theory is invalid; there may be variables outside the theory. As long as the theory finds the problem and makes corrections, the theory remains valid. In fact, the various uncertain calculation methods mentioned above can all provide remedies for erroneous calculation results. For example, there may be a deviation in understanding the symbols, an unclear understanding of the background of the matter, neglect of other information about the inquirer, and so on. In this way, even if an error occurs, as long as a reason is found, it will not be regarded as a challenge to "fortune-telling."

“波普尔的标准忽视了科学理论明显的坚韧性。科学家的脸皮很厚，他们不会只因为事实与理论相矛盾就放弃理论。他们通常发明某种挽救假说以说明他们届时称为只是一种反常的东西。”理论对于任何负面案例都是有一定承受力的，当理论出现否定性的案例，不一定代表理论的失效，而是可能存在该理论之外的变量。只要这一理论寻找到问题所在并进行修正，理论还是有效的。其实，上文中提到的各种不确定的推算方式，都能为其错误的推算结果提供补救。例如对于符号的理解存在偏差、对于事情的背景认识不清、忽视了问卜者的其他信息等等。这样一来，即使出现了错误，但只要找到理由，都不会被视作对“算命术”的挑战。

Second, from the practitioner's perspective, it is impossible to distinguish whether the divination result was "calculated" or "guessed."

第二，以从业者的角度看，不能区分占卜的结果是“算出来的”还是“猜出来的”。

We all know that humans have multiple ways of understanding the world, and these methods can all yield results with a certain degree of accuracy. For example, an elderly person in a village can often predict the trends and directions of major and minor affairs in the village based on experience. In predictive behavior in daily life, experience and theory are consistent; theory is a generalization and summary of experience. However, "fortune-telling," as a completely independent language system, has no connection whatsoever with experience, yet predictive behavior cannot avoid engaging with experience. This means that for the practitioner, there are two predictive models: one is the theoretical prediction of "fortune-telling," and the other is direct empirical prediction. Empirical prediction can supplement the theoretical prediction of "fortune-telling," and can even be the primary method used. For example, a person who comes to ask about something must be someone who is uncertain and lacks confidence; therefore, the probability of predicting an unfavorable outcome is often much higher than that of predicting a favorable one. In this way, even setting aside the theory of "fortune-telling," the accuracy rate of random guessing can reach over half. For the practitioner, since both systems exist in his mind, he actually has no way of knowing whether he got it right through calculation or through empirical guesswork.

我们都知道，人有多种方式认识世界，这些方式都可以得到具有一定准确度的结果。例如，村里的老人凭借经验往往能预测村中大小事务的发展趋势和方向。在日常生活中的预测行为中，经验与理论是一致的，理论是对经验的概括和总结。但是“算命术”作为一套完全独立的语言系统，与经验完全没有任何关系，但预测行为却不能不和经验发生关系。这就意味着，对于从业者来说，有两套预测模式，一种是“算命术”的理论预测，一种是经验的直接预测，而经验预测可以为“算命术”理论预测提供补充，甚至可以主要采用经验预测。例如，来问事的人，必然是心里没有底、没有把握的，因此，预测为凶的概率往往要远高于为吉的概率。这样，其实抛开“算命术”理论，人们瞎猜的准确率都能达到一半以上。对于从业者来说，由于这两套体系都在他的大脑中，他实际上没有办法说明是算对的，还是凭借经验蒙对的。

Third, from the inquirer's perspective, it is impossible to distinguish whether a correct divination result is "necessary" or "coincidental."

第三，从问卜者的角度看，不能区分占卜正确的结果是“必然的”还是“偶然的”。

In reality, a practitioner serves multiple inquirers. Even if the practitioner does not calculate correctly, there are times when he guesses correctly. As a result, due to the existence of a large numerical base, there will inevitably be inquirers who encounter a "divinely accurate" situation where the practitioner completely matches their past experiences. Because this situation defies common sense, it is often excessively publicized by the inquirer, while the more numerous, silent experiences of incorrect calculations are overlooked. The consequence is that inquirers who have been correctly calculated believe they have met a "master," while those who have not had such an experience only feel that they have not yet encountered a "master." The author once interviewed an inquirer who had a "divinely accurate" experience. According to her account, the other party, using only her Eight Characters [1]1 Li Chunfeng (602–670), Yuan Tiangang (d. 627), and Liu Bowen (1311–1375) were historical Chinese figures renowned as scholars, astronomers, and strategists, later mythologized as masters of divination and prophecy., accurately described her personality, occupation, life trajectory, and even the exact timing of her marriage and start of work, leaving her astonished. However, when she recommended a friend to go for a prediction, the other party's calculations were a complete mess.

在现实中，一个从业者会服务于多个问卜者，从业者即使算不对，也有蒙对的时候，这样一来，由于数量基数的存在，一定会有问卜者遇到完全说中自己过去经历的“神验”情况，由于这种情况打破了常识，往往会被问卜者过分宣扬，而忽视了更多、更沉默的算错的经历。结果就是，被算对的问卜者会以为自己遇到了“大师”,而没有这种经历的问卜者只会觉得自己还没有碰见“大师”。笔者曾经采访过一位有着“神验”经历的问卜者，据她所述，对方仅凭自己的八字，就说出了她的性格、职业、人生轨迹，甚至连结婚、参加工作的时间点都说的分毫不差，令其震惊。但是当她推荐一位朋友去预测的时候，对方则算得一塌糊涂。

In summary, due to the contradictions in the theoretical foundation, the uncertainty of the calculation methods, and the ambiguity of the verification methods, "fortune-telling" is not true science, but a deceptive pseudo-science.

综上所述，由于理论基础的矛盾性、推算方式的不确定性、验证手段的模糊性，“算命术”不是真正的科学，而是具有迷惑性的伪科学。

IV. Resisting the Spiritual Temptation of "Fortune-Telling" through Atheist Propaganda and Education

四、以无神论宣传教育抵御“算命术”的精神诱惑

The contemporary form of "fortune-telling" shows that it is not easy for scientific rationality to overcome fortune-telling superstition. With the development of the times and the progress of science, while people's scientific and cultural literacy and rational qualities have improved, superstition has also adopted more covert and deceptive forms. Under these circumstances, if our anti-superstition education still only stays at the level of teaching the most basic scientific concepts, it can no longer meet the requirements of the times and society, nor can it truly eradicate superstitious phenomena. Only by strengthening Marxist atheist education and resisting the spiritual temptation of "fortune-telling" can we guide a rational, positive, and upward social mentality and atmosphere.

“算命术”的当代形态表明，科学理性想要战胜算命迷信并不容易。随着时代的发展和科学的进步，人们在科学文化素养和理性品质得到提高的同时，迷信也在采取更隐蔽、更有迷惑性的形态。在这种情形下，我们的反迷信教育如果仍仅仅停留在讲授最基本的科学理念，已经无法满足时代和社会的要求，也无法真正破除迷信现象。只有加强马克思主义无神论教育，抵御“算命术”的精神诱惑，才能引导理性、积极、向上的社会心态和风气。

First, the essence and function of fortune-telling must be explained clearly from the perspective of historical materialism. As noted above, "fortune-telling" was an attempt by ancient humans, in an era when the natural and social sciences were underdeveloped, to understand the laws of change in the world and to predict the future. Its emergence, development, and spread are closely related to the development of social productive forces, technological progress, and the elevation of social and cultural levels; it is a part of humanity's primitive knowledge system. The theory of "fortune-telling" is not mysterious; it can be understood and recognized through reason. The great fortune-tellers of past dynasties, such as Li Chunfeng, Yuan Tiangang, and Liu Bowen,[1]1 Li Chunfeng (602–670), Yuan Tiangang (d. 627), and Liu Bowen (1311–1375) were historical Chinese figures renowned as scholars, astronomers, and strategists, later mythologized as masters of divination and prophecy. were not "supernatural beings" beyond the scope of common sense, but merely masters and practitioners of fortune-telling techniques. Furthermore, researchers of fortune-telling throughout the ages have not perfected this technique; various contradictions and conflicts exist within it, and its accuracy and practical utility are actually not high. Looking at cases of "fortune-telling" practice across the dynasties, we can also find that "fortune-telling" has little significance in guiding practice beforehand; only in hindsight can the so-called "correctness" of the time be verified. This means that those who resort to "fortune-telling" cannot obtain useful conclusions, but only psychological comfort. Therefore, viewing "fortune-telling" historically allows one to recognize its actual function, to avoid placing excessive expectations on it, and to refrain from regarding it as a panacea for achieving success in life.

一是要从历史唯物主义的角度讲清楚算命的本质与作用。如前所述，“算命术”是古代人类在自然科学、社会科学不发达时期试图认识世界变化规律、预测未来的一种尝试，其产生、发展、推广与社会生产力发展、技术进步、社会文化水平提高密切相关，是人类原始知识体系的一个部分。“算命术”的理论并不神秘，是可以用理性加以了解和认识的，历代算命大师，如李淳风、袁天罡、刘伯温等，也不是超出常识范围的“神人”,而只是算命技术的掌握者和运用者。此外，历代算命研究者也并未将这一门技术推向完善，其中存在着各种矛盾冲突，其准确率和实用性实际上并不高。而纵观历代“算命术”实践案例，我们也可以发现，“算命术”在事前指导实践的意义并不大，只有事后反观时，才能验证当时所谓的“正确”,这意味着求助于“算命术”的人并不能得到有用的结论，而只是得到了心理安慰。因此，历史地看待“算命术”,就会认清“算命术”的实际作用，不会对其产生过多的期待，将其视作实现人生成功的灵丹妙药。

Second, the popularization of science must be deepened. The path to fortune-telling is not forged by ignorance and stupidity, but rather by the insufficiency of the popularization of scientific knowledge. There is an urgent need to raise the level of the popularization of scientific knowledge and to deepen the popularization of science. On the one hand, attention must be paid to the cultivation of scientific thinking and scientific methods. Science is regarded as a discipline that reveals the laws of the development of things. Scientific theories, as the results of scientific activity, are often considered to correctly reveal the laws of the development of things. However, scientific theories cannot be equated with science itself, because the scientificity of specific scientific theories is conditional and relative; therefore, no specific scientific theory should be deified. What drives the development and progress of scientific theory is scientific thinking and scientific methods, that is, critical thinking and the methods of hypothesis, experimentation, and control. Ordinary people may not engage in scientific theoretical activities, but they can still establish scientific thinking and master scientific methods. The reason some pseudo-sciences can gain the trust and support of many people in the name of science is precisely that these people only believe in specific scientific theories (which may not even be genuine scientific theories) and do not use scientific thinking and scientific methods for reflection and verification. Attention must be paid to cultivating people's critical spirit regarding science, so as to effectively identify pseudo-scientific theories. On the other hand, importance must be attached to education on cutting-edge scientific theories. At the current stage of scientific development, many theories, unlike classical theories, cannot be grasped through examples from daily life and common sense; they are highly abstract and far removed from real life, yet they cannot be completely detached from it. This characteristic makes scientific theories extremely susceptible to vulgarization and exploitation by various pseudo-sciences, turning them into tools for promoting "pseudo-science."

二是要推动科普走向深化。通向算命的路，不是愚昧无知造就的，反而是由于科学知识普及不足造成的。当前亟须提高科学知识普及水平，推动科普走向深化。一方面，要注重科学思维、科学方法的培养。科学被视作揭示事物发展规律的一门学问，科学理论作为科学活动的结果，往往被认为是正确揭示了事物发展的规律。但是，科学理论不能等同于科学本身，因为具体科学理论的科学性都是有条件的、相对的，故不能将某一具体的科学理论奉为圭臬。驱动科学理论发展进步的是科学思维、科学方法，即批判性的思维和假设、实验、对照的方法。普通人可能并不从事科学理论活动，但也可以树立科学的思维和掌握科学的方法。一些伪科学之所以能以科学之名取得不少人的信任和支持，就是因为这些人只相信特定的科学理论(可能也不是真正的科学理论),而不用科学思维与科学方法进行反思和验证。要注重培养人的科学批判精神，从而有效辨识伪科学理论。另一方面，要重视科学前沿理论的教育。科学发展到当前阶段，很多理论都不像经典理论那样可以用生活中的例子与常识来把握，具有高度的抽象性，距离现实生活比较远，但是它们又不能完全脱离现实生活。这种特点使科学理论极易被庸俗化，被各种伪科学所利用，变成宣扬“伪科学”的工具。

Third, the targeting and effectiveness of anti-superstition propaganda must be enhanced. Past anti-superstition propaganda focused on stating that "superstition is wrong" and "the serious consequences of superstition," but it did not explain clearly "why superstition is wrong" or "why this is superstition." In fact, superstitious people never consider themselves superstitious; they always act on certain reasons. If the psychological soil of superstition cannot be eradicated at its root, anti-superstition propaganda will struggle to achieve tangible results. In practice, many people tend to believe that "seeing is believing." Once they witness or experience a miraculous phenomenon with their own eyes, they no longer trust propaganda on paper. However, these so-called "miraculous phenomena" are usually deliberately created by people with ulterior motives, or are used to screen potential targets through "broadcasting nets" [2]2 "Broadcasting nets" (广撒网, literally "casting a wide net") is a Chinese idiom describing a strategy of casting a wide net to catch fish, used here metaphorically to mean a broad, indiscriminate approach to targeting potential victims. tactics; none of them can withstand close scrutiny. If potential audiences possess basic vigilance, maintain sufficient patience, do not believe easily, and repeatedly verify, pseudo-science will inevitably reveal its flaws. Therefore, through more vivid cases, the tricks behind pseudo-science practitioners and the sources of miraculous phenomena must be exposed, allowing the masses to recognize the deceptiveness and penetrative nature of pseudo-science more directly and perceptually. Only then can the masses remain constantly vigilant against pseudo-science and avoid being misled by isolated appearances.

三是提高反迷信宣传的针对性和有效性。以往的反迷信宣传，侧重于讲述“迷信是错的”“迷信的严重后果”,但没有讲明白“迷信为什么是错的”“这个为什么是迷信”。其实，迷信之人从来不认为自己是迷信，总是出于一定的理由，如果不能从根部消除迷信的心理土壤，那么反迷信宣传就难以见到实效。在实践中，很多人往往相信“眼见为实”,一旦亲眼看见或体验了神奇的现象，就不再相信纸面上的宣传。但是，这些所谓的“神奇的现象”通常是别有用心之人有意为之，或是通过“广撒网”的手段来筛选潜在人群，都无法经得起深究。倘若潜在受众有了基本的警惕性，保持足够的耐心，不轻易相信，反复验证，伪科学一定会露出马脚。因此，要通过更加鲜活的案例，揭露伪科学从业者背后的把戏、神奇现象的来源，让群众更直接、感性地认识到伪科学的欺骗性和渗透性，如此才能让群众时刻对伪科学保持警惕，避免被个别表象所迷惑。