Li Shenming: China’s Development Still in an Important Period of Strategic Opportunity

Li Shenming: China’s Development Still in an Important Period of Strategic Opportunity

李慎明：我国发展仍然处于重要战略机遇期

Beginning in December 2020, the Institute of Marxism launched the “21st Century Marxism Lecture Hall” series, which will from time to time invite renowned Marxist scholars from China and abroad to give special lectures on major theoretical and practical issues.

从2020年12月开始，马克思主义研究院推出“21世纪马克思主义大讲堂”系列讲座，将不定期邀请中外马克思主义著名学者就重大理论和实践问题做专题演讲。

On the morning of December 24, 2020, the “21st Century Marxism Lecture Hall” series officially commenced. Li Shenming, a renowned Marxist scholar, former Vice President and Deputy Party Secretary of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Director of the World Socialism Research Center, delivered a special lecture in the Institute of Marxism’s lecture hall titled “China’s Development Still in an Important Period of Strategic Opportunity – Reflections on Studying the Spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee.” The lecture was chaired by Professor Lin Jianhua, Vice President of the Institute of Marxism.

2020年12月24日上午，“21世纪马克思主义大讲堂”系列讲座正式启动。著名马克思主义学者，中国社会科学院原副院长、党组副书记，世界社会主义研究中心主任李慎明研究员在马研院报告厅作了题为“我国发展仍然处于重要战略机遇期——学习党的十九届五中全会精神的体会”的专题演讲。演讲由马研院副院长林建华教授主持。

Li Shenming proposed that, against the backdrop of profound and complex changes in the domestic and international environment, understanding how to interpret “the world entering a period of turbulence and transformation,” “the critical period for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” and “China’s development still being in an important period of strategic opportunity,” as well as their interrelations, constitutes a major课题 [n1].

李慎明提出，在国内外环境正在发生深刻复杂变化的背景下，如何理解“世界进入动荡变革期”、“中华民族伟大复兴关键期”和“我国发展仍然处于重要战略机遇期”及其关系，是一个重大课题。

Li Shenming elaborated on his understanding of the issue of China’s important period of strategic opportunity from five aspects:

李慎明从五个方面阐述了对我国重要战略机遇期问题的认识：

First, what is China’s important period of strategic opportunity for development? He argued that, compared with the original meaning of the period of strategic opportunity first proposed at the 16th National Congress [n2], the New Era has endowed the period of strategic opportunity with new connotations. Using the phrase “much can be accomplished” (大有可为) rather than “much has been accomplished” (大有作为) to characterize the period of strategic opportunity is precisely intended to indicate that the period of strategic opportunity that ultimately becomes reality is a high degree of unity between objective existence and subjective effort, and by no means a predetermined result. We should also recognize that the opportunities and challenges within the period of strategic opportunity are not fixed; under certain conditions, they can transform into each other.

第一，什么是我国发展的重要战略机遇期？他认为，较之十六大首提的战略机遇期的本意，新时代赋予了战略机遇期新的内涵，使用“大有可为”而不是“大有作为的”来标识战略机遇期，就是旨在说明最终成为事实的战略机遇期是客观自在与主观努力的高度统一，而绝不是事先就已确定的结果。我们还应认识到，战略机遇期中的机遇与挑战不是固定不变的，它们在一定条件下可以相互转化。

Second, from the international perspective, five objective conditions already exist for China’s development to remain in an important period of strategic opportunity: first, the international financial crisis that erupted in the Western world led by the United States in 2008; second, wherever there is oppression, exploitation, and polarization, there is awakening, resistance, and struggle – this is an iron law of historical development; third, the two different types of development models, outcomes, and lessons from the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the crisis in the United States are two typical examples that hold profound implications for upholding and developing socialism with Chinese characteristics; fourth, the fourth scientific and technological revolution of mankind has already begun; fifth, socialism with Chinese characteristics stands towering in the East of the world.

第二，从国际方面看，我国发展仍然处于重要战略机遇期已经具备五个客观条件：一是2008年以美国为首的西方世界爆发的国际金融危机；二是哪里有压迫，哪里有剥削，哪里有分化，哪里就有觉醒，就有反抗，就有斗争，这是历史发展的铁则；三是苏联解体和美国危机两种不同类型的发展模式、发展结果及其教训是两个典型例证，对坚持和发展中国特色社会主义具有深刻的昭示意义；四是人类第四次科技革命已经拉开帷幕；五是中国特色社会主义在世界东方的巍然屹立。

Third, the severe international challenges facing China’s important period of strategic opportunity for development. Researcher Li Shenming, from the perspectives of economics, politics, the United States itself, and preparing for the worst-case scenario, elaborated on the general trend of predominantly rivalry with, and secondarily cooperation with, the United States over the coming decades, as well as its main causes.

第三，我国发展重要战略机遇期所面临的严峻国际挑战。李慎明研究员从经济、政治、美国自身和准备应付最坏情况四个方面着眼，阐述了今后几十年中美之间以较量为主、合作为辅的大势及其主要原因。

Fourth, the current state and outlook of the world situation after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, the world has entered a new period of great turbulence, great transformation, and great development; second, this fight against the COVID-19 pandemic has comprehensively demonstrated both the soft and hard strengths of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics; after fully winning this major battle, China will steadily move toward the center of the world stage; third, the global outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is, in the final analysis, a concentrated expression of the most fundamental, i.e., deepest, contradictions of financial imperialism; fourth, bad things can, under certain conditions, turn into good things; fifth, the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States differ in their governance strategies, and we need to treat them differently, adopting different policies and strategies to deal with them, but we must also have a clear understanding of the essential consistency of capitalist political parties; sixth, we are still in the historical era indicated by Marxism; the international situation has become more bizarre and unpredictable; international struggle has entered an era of unrestricted warfare across all fields, all directions, and all dimensions; we must prepare for the worst in order to strive for the best outcome.

第四，新冠肺炎疫情发生后世界格局的现状与瞻望。一是世界已经进入大动荡、大变革、大发展的新时期；二是这次抗击新冠肺炎疫情全面展示了中国特色社会主义制度的软、硬两种实力，在完全赢得这场重大战役胜利之后，我国必将稳步地走向世界舞台中央；三是新冠疫情在全球的爆发泛滥，说到底是金融帝国主义最基本亦即最深层次矛盾的集中表现；四是坏事在一定条件下能变成好事；五是美国民主、共和两党在执政策略上有所不同，我们需区别对待，采取不同政策与策略加以应对，但也必须对资本主义政党在本质上的一致性有清醒认识；六是我们仍然处在马克思主义所指明的历史时代，国际形势变得更加诡异难测，国际斗争已经进入全领域、各方位、多维度的超限战时代，我们必须做最坏的打算、以争取最好的结果。

Fifth, winning China’s important period of strategic opportunity for development depends crucially on domestic reform, development, and stability. First, the primary and core task is to resolutely achieve the Two Upholds [n3]; second, the current key is to uphold the socialist economic system and uphold the Party’s basic economic system for the primary stage of socialism; third, always adhere to self-reliance and hard struggle; fourth, correctly treat the two different historical periods before and after reform and opening up; fifth, be mentally prepared for a period of hardship; sixth, effectively carry out the struggle concerning Taiwan.

第五，赢得我国发展重要战略机遇期，关键在于国内改革、发展和稳定。一是首要的、核心的要坚决做到“两个维护”；二是当前的关键是坚持社会主义经济制度，坚持党在社会主义初级阶段的基本经济制度；三是始终坚持自力更生、艰苦奋斗；四是正确对待改革开放前后两个不同的历史时期；五是要有过一段苦日子的思想准备；六是切实做好对台斗争。

Vice President Lin Jianhua, in his concluding remarks, highly praised Researcher Li Shenming’s lecture, stating that it embodied a sense of the times, a sense of mission, a presentation of laws, and a sense of responsibility as weighty as a mountain, calling it a great academic feast and spiritual feast. Lin Jianhua argued that Researcher Li Shenming vividly explained what China’s important period of strategic opportunity is, deeply analyzed the opportunities and challenges we face domestically and internationally during this important period of strategic opportunity and their causes, and comprehensively and strategically discussed several important issues concerning China’s important strategic period. Lin Jianhua proposed that this is the origin and starting point for thinking about and solving all problems in China in the New Era. Whether we can make good use of this important period of strategic opportunity depends on whether we can resolve challenges and seize opportunities. This concerns the “two overall situations” [n4], concerns the “two centenary goals” [n5], and also concerns the development trend of China’s near-, medium-, and long-term goals, and concerns China’s future and destiny. Researcher Li Shenming has always had a strong sense of problems and a sense of problem-solving. Through this lecture, he taught us the methodology for studying problems, the path for studying problems, and pointed to the essence and substance of problems and their deep-seated causes, demonstrating the operational logic based on the dialectical relationship between productive forces and relations of production, and between the economic base and the superstructure.

林建华副院长在总结发言时高度评价李慎明研究员的演讲，认为演讲内蕴时代感、使命感、规律性呈现和大山一般的责任感，是一场学术大宴、精神大宴。林建华认为，李慎明研究员生动诠释了何为我国重要战略机遇期，深刻分析了在这一重要战略机遇期我们在国际国内面临的机遇、挑战及其动因，全面地、战略性地论述了关于我国重要战略期的若干重要问题。林建华提出，这是我们思考和解决新时代中国所有问题的原点和出发点，我们能不能用好这个重要战略机遇期，取决于我们能不能化解挑战、抓住机遇，这事关“两个大局”，事关“两个一百年”，也事关我国的近中长期目标的发展态势，事关中国的前途和命运。李慎明研究员一向具有很强烈的问题意识、问题求解意识，通过这场报告，他教给了我们研究问题的方法论、研究问题的路径，而且指向问题的本质和实质及其深层动因，展示了基于生产力与生产关系、经济基础与上层建筑之间辩证关系的运行逻辑。

The first lecture of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Marxism “21st Century Marxism Lecture Hall” concluded successfully.

中国社会科学院马克思主义研究院“21世纪马克思主义大讲堂”第一讲圆满结束。