The Value Implications of Extreme Thinking under the Changes Unseen in a Century

The “extreme” in extreme thinking was originally a mathematical concept, later extended and applied to the humanities and social sciences, becoming a concept adjacent to bottom-line thinking, with the two often appearing together. As a method of thinking, extreme thinking is characterized by actively extrapolating major issues to extreme situations, basing itself on extremely unfavorable conditions, seeing through phenomena to grasp their essence, eliminating interference to judge their pros and cons, raising one’s standpoint to grasp their trends, and thereby mobilizing all available resources to make decisions of a nature that either bounces back from the bottom or fights back from a desperate position.

极限思维里的极限原本是一个数学概念，后被引申运用到人文社会科学领域，成为底线思维的一个临近概念，二者经常一致出现。极限思维作为一种思维方法，其突出特征是主动将重大问题推演到极端情况，立足于极端不利条件，透过现象洞悉其本质、排除干扰判断其利弊、提高站位把握其走势，进而调动一切可用资源，做出具有触底反弹或绝地反击性质的决策。

The world today has entered a stage of accelerated evolution of the changes unseen in a century, with global uncertainty becoming increasingly evident. Before major breakthroughs in cutting-edge science and technology release a powerful technological dividend, competition among nations for existing stocks will intensify unprecedentedly, a situation some domestic scholars call “an era of great contention.” [1]1 “An era of great contention” (大争之世) is a classical Chinese phrase referring to a period of intense competition among states, often used to describe the Warring States period (475–221 BCE). When presiding over the first meeting of the Central Committee for National Security of the 20th Central Committee, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out, “We must adhere to bottom-line thinking and extreme thinking, and prepare to withstand major tests of high winds and choppy waters, or even raging waves.” [2]2 Xi Jinping’s remark at the first meeting of the Central Committee for National Security of the 20th Central Committee, held in May 2023. Against this backdrop, the value implications of extreme thinking are increasingly prominent, including but not limited to the following three aspects.

当今世界已进入百年未有之大变局加速演进阶段，世界的不确定日益明显，在前沿科学技术取得重大突破并释放出强大的科技红利前，世界范围内国家间的存量竞争将空前加剧，国内一些学者称之为“大争之世”。习近平总书记在主持召开二十届中央国家安全委员会第一次会议时指出，“要坚持底线思维和极限思维，准备经受风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验。”[1]在此背景下，极限思维的价值意蕴日益凸显，包含但不仅限于以下三个方面。

I. Adhering to Extreme Thinking to Effectively Respond to Extreme Pressure from External Forces

一、坚持极限思维有效应对外部势力的极限施压

The current world economy is experiencing sluggish recovery, geopolitical confrontation is escalating day by day, and global issues such as food supply, energy security, climate change, environmental pollution, and public health are emerging one after another. The characteristics of an “era of great contention” marked by competition for existing stocks are becoming increasingly evident. Against the backdrop of the changes unseen in a century, global uncertainty is growing, various destabilizing factors are increasing, and the risk of countries suffering extreme pressure from external forces is rising day by day. In recent years, some global powers have carried out intensive strategic encirclement activities against their main strategic rivals, ranging from military adventures of “close-in reconnaissance and military confrontation,” to trade wars of “killing one thousand enemies at the cost of eight hundred of one’s own,” to technology wars of “strangulation,” to public opinion wars of “killing the person and destroying the heart.” [3]3 “Killing the person and destroying the heart” (杀人诛心) is a Chinese idiom meaning to defeat an opponent not only physically but also by undermining their morale or legitimacy. Historically, New China has no shortage of successful cases of actively using extreme thinking to break extreme pressure. For example, in the 1960s, when New China faced extreme pressure from two superpowers, it resolutely launched the “Third Front Construction” [4]4 The “Third Front Construction” (三线建设) was a massive industrialization and military preparedness campaign launched by Mao Zedong in the 1960s to build a strategic industrial base in China’s interior, away from the coast and borders, in response to perceived threats from the Soviet Union and the United States. at great economic cost, building a rear industrial base for strategic counterattack, unprecedentedly increasing the cost of aggression for hypothetical enemies, achieving the set goal of deterring war through war preparedness, and enabling New China to survive the dangerous period before it developed nuclear counterattack capability.

当下的世界经济复苏乏力，地缘政治对抗日益升级，粮食供应、能源安全、气候变化、环境污染、公共卫生等全球性问题此起彼伏。以存量竞争为特征的“大争之世”的特征日益明显。在百年未有之大变局背景下，世界的不确定性日益增强，各种不稳定因素日益增加，各国遭受外部力量极限施压的风险与日俱增。近年来，一些全球性大国针对主要战略对手开展了密集的战略挤压活动，从“抵近侦察、军事对峙”的军事冒险到“杀敌一千自损八百”的贸易战到“卡脖子”的科技战再到“杀人诛心”的舆论战等等。从历史上看，新中国不乏坚持极限思维主动破解极限施压的成功案例。例如二十世纪六十年代，新中国面临两大超级大国的极限施压，不惜经济代价果断开展了“三线建设”，构筑了战略反击的后方工业基地，空前增加了假想敌的侵略成本，实现了以备战止战的既定目标，让新中国渡过了核武器形成反击能力前的危险时期。

Adhering to and applying extreme thinking to effectively respond to extreme pressure from external forces is mainly manifested in achieving “abandoning illusions and preparing for struggle” in international games. Abandoning illusions is the logical starting point of extreme thinking, mainly manifested in being willing to start from the worst-case scenario when encountering events, and not wishfully pinning hopes on the opponent’s mercy or strategic mistakes. It means being willing to assess with a cold eye the scope and degree of damage of specific risks under extreme conditions, and on this basis, to seek the spiritual strength and struggle plans for a “counterattack.” Preparing for struggle is the logical extension of extreme thinking. Preparing for struggle means starting from the results deduced by extreme thinking, recognizing the inevitability, long-term nature, and even cruelty of struggle. Looking at Chinese history, even a diplomatic reconciliation like the Treaty of Chanyuan [5]5 The Treaty of Chanyuan (澶渊之盟) was a peace agreement signed in 1005 between the Northern Song dynasty and the Liao dynasty, ending decades of warfare. It involved annual tribute payments from Song to Liao in exchange for peace. was based on a balance of power where the Song army was good at defending cities but poor at field battles, while the Liao army was good at field battles but poor at besieging cities. On the one hand, one should identify and fill gaps through the tempering of struggle, and enhance the ability to resist blockade and suppression in dynamic development. On the other hand, one should carry forward historical initiative, preparing not only for tit-for-tat direct confrontations in specific fields but also for forms of struggle such as “you fight your way, I fight my way.” Under the guidance of “engaging with the orthodox and winning by surprise,” [6]6 “Engaging with the orthodox and winning by surprise” (以正合，以奇胜) is a military principle from Sun Tzu’s *The Art of War*, advocating the combination of conventional (orthodox) and unconventional (surprise) tactics. one should prepare for both orthodox and surprise struggle, and in daring to struggle and being good at struggling, “achieve unity through struggle,” [7]7 “Achieve unity through struggle” (以斗争求团结) is a principle from Mao Zedong’s united front theory, emphasizing that unity with allies must be secured through principled struggle against their errors. thereby seeking a favorable international environment for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

坚持和运用极限思维，有效应对外部势力的极限施压，主要表现为在国际博弈中做到“放弃幻想，准备斗争”。放弃幻想是极限思维的逻辑起点，主要表现为遇事肯于从最坏处着眼，不能一厢情愿地寄希望于对手的心慈手软或战略失误。甘于用冷峻的眼光评估在极端条件下特定风险的波及范围和破坏程度，在此基础上谋求“逆袭”的精神力量和斗争方案。准备斗争是极限思维的逻辑延伸，准备斗争就要从极限思维推演的结果出发，认识到斗争的必然性、长期性甚至是残酷性。从中国历史上看，纵使澶渊之盟这样的外交和解也是建立在宋朝军队善于守城不善野战，辽国军队善于野战不善于攻城的实力均衡之上。一方面应在斗争的磨砺中查漏补缺，在动态发展中提升反封锁和抗打压的能力。一方面要发扬历史主动，既要准备特定领域针锋相对的正面较量，也要准备“你打你的、我打我的”的斗争形式，在“以正合，以奇胜”的指导下，做好奇正两手斗争准备，在敢于斗争善于斗争中“做到以斗争求团结”，为中华民族伟大复兴谋求良好的国际环境。

II. Adhering to Extreme Thinking to Actively Respond to the Extreme Challenges of Natural Disasters

二、坚持极限思维积极应对自然灾害的极限挑战

China is a country with a vast territory, a large population, a huge economic volume, and significant natural differences. It is also a country plagued by various natural disasters. The vast historical classics contain numerous records of various natural disasters and disaster reduction and relief. It can be said that summer floods and droughts, winter ice and snow disasters, various forms of plagues, and earthquake disasters in seismic belts have always been classic problems harassing social and economic development. Modern society, built on an industrial foundation, has the characteristics of high vulnerability and strong dependence, which determines that under extreme conditions, a single natural disaster may trigger secondary disasters, causing immeasurable chain reactions.

我国是一个幅员辽阔、人口众多、经济体量庞大、自然差异显著的国家，也是一个饱受各类自然灾害侵袭的国家，浩瀚的历史典籍中不乏对各种自然灾害和减灾抗灾的记载。可以说，夏季的洪灾旱灾、冬季的冰雪灾害、各种形态的瘟疫、地震带上的地震灾害一直是袭扰社会经济发展的经典难题。建立在工业化基础之上的现代社会具有高脆弱性和强依赖性的特质，这就决定了在极端条件下单一的自然灾害可能会引发次生灾害，造成不可估量的连锁反应。

Adhering to extreme thinking to actively respond to the extreme challenges of natural disasters is mainly manifested in being willing to start from the bad side and using redundancy to hedge against uncertainty. Comrade Mao Zedong said, “In any work, we must think and deploy from the worst possibility.” [8]8 Mao Zedong’s remark, often cited in the context of strategic planning and risk management. Starting from the bad side requires combining local historical records and relevant scientific and technological achievements to systematically grasp the frequency and inducing conditions of various natural disasters, accurately judge the various secondary disasters induced by natural disasters under extreme conditions, and comprehensively assess the scope and degree of damage of disasters under extreme conditions. Guided by extreme thinking, with an attitude of being responsible to the people and to history, it is necessary to continuously improve the disaster prevention system, continuously enhance emergency disaster relief capabilities, and achieve “responding to all changes with constancy.” The key is to proactively raise the design and construction standards of disaster reduction and prevention facilities, using the redundancy in design to hedge against potential extreme disasters. Simultaneously, strict institutional design should be used to consolidate the disaster prevention and relief responsibility system of relevant departments, and a reward and punishment mechanism with immediate effect should be used to maintain the redundancy and quality of hardware for disaster reduction and prevention. Thereby, the risk of spread of specific natural disasters can be controlled, the occurrence and spread of secondary disasters can be effectively prevented, and the transformation of natural disasters into man-made calamities can be eliminated.

坚持极限思维，积极应对自然灾害的极限挑战，主要表现为肯于从坏处着眼，以冗余量对冲不确定性。毛泽东同志说过：“不论任何工作，我们都要从最坏的可能性来想，来部署。”[2]从坏处着眼就要结合当地历史记录和相关科技成果，系统掌握各种自然灾害的发生频次和诱发条件，准确研判极限条件下自然灾害诱发的各类次生灾害，全面评估极限条件下灾害的波及范围和损失程度。在极限思维的指引下，本着对人民负责、对历史负责的态度，要不断完善防灾体系建设，不断提高应急救灾能力，做到以不变应万变。重点是主动提高减灾防灾设施的设计和建造标准，以设计中的冗余量对冲潜在的极端灾害。与之同步的是，用严格的制度设计压实相关部门的防灾救灾责任制，用立竿见影的奖惩机制保持减灾防灾硬件方面的冗余和质量。借此管控特定自然灾害的扩散风险，有效防止次生灾害的发生和蔓延，杜绝天灾向人祸的转化。

III. Adhering to Extreme Thinking to Actively Alleviate the Extreme Escalation of Social Contradictions

三、坚持极限思维主动纾解社会矛盾的极限升级

Under the changes unseen in a century, the endless changes in the political, economic, scientific, technological, and cultural fields will inevitably bring about shifts in the balance of power among different groups and sudden changes in the pattern of interest distribution. Countries generally have to go through a period of frequent social contradictions. Whether the extreme escalation of domestic contradictions can be controlled has become a top priority in the social governance of countries amidst the great changes. A country’s domestic contradictions are often affected by the international environment, making some domestic social contradictions both international and complex. On the one hand, “black swan” events have great randomness and contingency. Given the current technological conditions and knowledge reserves of humanity, accurate prediction and efficient intervention are impossible. Some long-standing social contradictions, amplified by contingent “black swan” events, may continue to escalate, bringing unexpected chain reactions. On the other hand, “gray rhino” events are both an explosion of specific accumulated ills from quantitative to qualitative change and the result of long-term selective blindness under the influence of a fluke mentality. Some structural social contradictions that remain unresolved for a long time may evolve into “gray rhino” events under external stimulus, and their outbreak will have a sustained and strong shock effect on society.

在百年未有之大变局下，政治、经济、科技、文化等领域层出不穷的变局必然带来不同群体力量对比的消长和利益分配格局的骤变，各国普遍要经历一个社会矛盾的多发期，能否控制国内矛盾的极限升级，成为大变局中各国社会治理中的头等大事。一国国内矛盾往往会受国际大环境的波及，使一些国内社会矛盾兼具国际性和复杂性。一方面，“黑天鹅”事件带有很大的随机性和偶然性，在人类目前的技术条件和知识储备下，无法实现精准预测和高效干预。一些长期存在的社会矛盾被充满偶然性的“黑天鹅”事件放大后有可能会持续升级，带来意想不到的连锁反应。一方面，“灰犀牛”事件既是特定积弊由量变到质变的爆发，也是人们在侥幸心理作用下长期选择性无视的结果。一些结构性社会矛盾长期得不到解决，在外力刺激下可能会演变为“灰犀牛”事件，其爆发会对社会产生持续且强烈的震荡作用。

Adhering to extreme thinking to actively alleviate the extreme escalation of social contradictions under the action of external forces is mainly manifested in actively clearing up existing stock social contradictions and using incremental innovation to solve structural contradictions. Clearing up stock refers to, based on the reasonable deduction of extreme thinking, predicting the probability and potential impact of the extreme escalation of current major social contradictions, dividing them from the four dimensions of importance, urgency, severity, and scope, and then setting priorities. Under existing constraints, focus on solving social contradictions that are prone to escalation and have far-reaching impacts, to the greatest extent possible eliminate potential detonating points of social contradictions, and provide a stable strategic rear for the increasingly fierce national games under the changes unseen in a century. Opening up increments means releasing new productive forces through technological breakthroughs and optimization of relations of production, using rapid progress in productive forces in specific fields to drive overall social development, thereby enhancing the resilience of social development, improving the efficiency of social governance, systematically solving some original structural contradictions, fundamentally eliminating the hidden dangers of “gray rhino” events, and providing strong guarantees for Chinese-path modernization.

坚持极限思维，主动纾解社会矛盾在外力作用下的极限升级，主要表现为积极清理存量社会矛盾，以增量创新解决结构性矛盾。清理存量是指根据极限思维的合理推演，预测当下主要社会矛盾极限升级的概率和潜在影响，从轻重缓急四个维度予以划分，进而设置优先级。在既有的约束条件下重点解决容易升级且影响深远的社会矛盾，最大程度地消弭潜在的社会矛盾引爆点，为百年未有之大变局下日趋激烈的国家博弈提供稳定的战略后方。开辟增量是通过科技突破和生产关系优化释放新的生产力，用特定领域生产力的突飞猛进带动社会整体发展，借此增强社会发展的韧性、提高社会治理效能，系统性地解决一些原有的结构性矛盾，从根本上解决“灰犀牛”事件的隐患，为中国式现代化建设提供有力的保障。

[The author is an Associate Professor at the School of Marxism, University of Science and Technology Liaoning.]

【作者系辽宁科技大学马克思主义学院副教授】

References:

参考文献：

[1]1 “An era of great contention” (大争之世) is a classical Chinese phrase referring to a period of intense competition among states, often used to describe the Warring States period (475–221 BCE). "Xi Jinping Presides over the First Meeting of the 20th Central Committee for National Security and Emphasizes Accelerating the Modernization of the National Security System and Capabilities to Safeguard a New Development Pattern with a New Security Framework," *People's Daily*, May 31, 2023.

[1]《习近平主持召开二十届中央国家安全委员会第一次会议强调 加快推进国家安全体系和能力现代化 以新安全格局保障新发展格局》，《人民日报》2023年5月31日。

[2]2 Xi Jinping’s remark at the first meeting of the Central Committee for National Security of the 20th Central Committee, held in May 2023. *Collected Works of Mao Zedong* (Volume 6), People's Publishing House, 1999, p. 404.

[2]《毛泽东文集》（第六卷），人民出版社1999年版，第404页。

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