Deepening the Understanding of the Relationship between Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand through the Integration of Theory and Practice

Supply and demand are two sides of the same coin in economic development. Balancing the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand is an important component of Xi Jinping’s economic thought. Not long ago, the first volume of *Selected Works of Xi Jinping on the Economy* was published and distributed, providing an authoritative textbook for the entire Party and the people of all ethnic groups across the country to deeply study and implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, especially Xi Jinping’s economic thought. Several works in this volume offer profound discussions on balancing the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand. For example, *Accelerating the Establishment of a New Development Pattern and Seizing the Initiative in Future Development* points out: “The key to establishing a new development pattern lies in ensuring the unimpeded flow of the economic cycle. Whether this can be achieved depends mainly on whether both the supply and demand ends are dynamically strong, generally matched, dynamically balanced, and positively interactive.” *Ensuring That Our Country’s Economic Ship Sails Steadily and Far* points out: “We must balance the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand to smooth the national economic cycle.” Balancing the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand is an important new proposition put forward by the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core in the face of a complex and severe economic situation, continuously deepening the understanding of the regularities of economic work. It contains rich ideological content and further develops Xi Jinping’s economic thought. Guided by Xi Jinping’s economic thought, adhering to a systems perspective, and deepening the understanding of the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand through the integration of theory and practice are prerequisites for balancing this relationship, conducive to accelerating the establishment of a new development pattern and solidly promoting high-quality development.

供给和需求是经济发展的一体两面。统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，是习近平经济思想的重要内容。前不久，《习近平经济文选》第一卷出版发行，为全党全国各族人民深入学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想特别是习近平经济思想提供了权威教材。其中的多篇著作，都对统筹好总供给和总需求的关系作出深刻论述。比如，《加快构建新发展格局，把握未来发展主动权》指出：“构建新发展格局的关键在于实现经济循环的畅通无阻。能否实现，主要取决于供给和需求两端是否动力强劲、总体匹配，动态平衡、良性互动”；《确保我国经济航船乘风破浪、行稳致远》指出：“必须统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，畅通国民经济循环”。统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，是以习近平同志为核心的党中央面对复杂严峻的经济形势，不断深化对经济工作规律性认识提出的重要新命题，包含着丰富的思想内容，进一步发展了习近平经济思想。以习近平经济思想为指导，坚持系统观念，在理论和实践相结合中深化对总供给和总需求关系的认识，是统筹好总供给和总需求关系的前提，有利于加快构建新发展格局、扎实推动高质量发展。

Based on the National Economic Cycle, Deeply Grasp the Relationship between Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand

立足国民经济循环，深刻把握总供给和总需求的关系

Supply and demand are a dialectical unity of mutual dependence and mutual conditionality. General Secretary Xi Jinping, in *Deeply Understanding the New Development Concept and Promoting Supply-Side Structural Reform*, pointed out: “Without demand, supply cannot be realized, and new demand can give rise to new supply; without supply, demand cannot be met, and new supply can create new demand.” From the perspective of macroeconomic operation, the supply-demand relationship in the market manifests as the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand. Aggregate supply reflects the total quantity of products and services provided by the market to the entire society in a given period, while aggregate demand reflects the total quantity of effective demand with purchasing power for the total products and services of the entire society in the same period. Whether the national economic cycle is smooth can be judged by whether aggregate supply and aggregate demand are balanced. Generally speaking, when aggregate supply exceeds aggregate demand, the national economy operates in a state of “surplus,” with unsold products and a decline in the general price level; when aggregate supply falls short of aggregate demand, the national economy operates in a state of “shortage,” with insufficient product supply and a rise in the general price level; when aggregate supply equals aggregate demand, the national economy operates in an overall stable state.

供给和需求是相互依存、互为条件的辩证统一关系。习近平总书记在《深入理解新发展理念，推进供给侧结构性改革》中指出：“没有需求，供给就无从实现，新的需求可以催生新的供给；没有供给，需求就无法满足，新的供给可以创造新的需求。”从宏观经济运行来看，市场中的供求关系表现为总供给和总需求的关系。总供给体现一定时期市场为全社会提供的产品和服务总量，总需求体现同一时期市场对全社会总产品和服务有支付能力的需求。国民经济循环是否畅通，可以通过总供给和总需求之间是否平衡来判断。一般说来，当总供给大于总需求时，国民经济运行会表现为“过剩”状态，产品滞销，价格总水平下降；当总供给小于总需求时，国民经济运行会表现为“短缺”状态，产品供给不足，价格总水平上升；当总供给等于总需求时，国民经济运行则表现为整体平稳的状态。

The supply-demand relationship is an important relationship in the operation of a market economy. For a country or society, whether aggregate supply and aggregate demand are balanced is determined not only by the supply-demand relationship itself but also by the relationships among the various links of social reproduction hidden behind aggregate supply and aggregate demand. Among the four links of social reproduction—production, distribution, circulation, and consumption—the production link determines the distribution, circulation, and consumption links. In the supply-demand relationship, production is on the supply side; in the national economic cycle, production occupies a foundational position. The consumption link in social reproduction is both the endpoint of the previous cycle and the starting point of the next cycle, thus holding a unique position in the national economic cycle. In the supply-demand relationship, consumption is on the demand side, including both productive consumption and living consumption. Living consumption is final consumption, constituting genuine, direct demand; productive consumption usually manifests as investment, which increases purchases and thus increases aggregate demand. However, at the same time, the purpose of investment is production, so from a future perspective, its essence is to increase aggregate supply. Therefore, the role of investment in increasing aggregate demand must be analyzed concretely. The distribution link and the circulation link do not directly form the supply-demand relationship, but they play an indispensable intermediary role in the national economic cycle. Without income distribution, consumption cannot be discussed; without circulation, the cycle between production and consumption cannot be connected.

供求关系是市场经济运行中的重要关系。对于一个国家或社会来说，总供给和总需求是否平衡不仅仅是由供求关系本身决定的，同时也是由隐藏在总供给和总需求背后的社会再生产各个环节之间的关系决定的。在社会再生产的生产、分配、流通、消费四个环节中，生产环节决定分配、流通和消费环节。在供求关系中，生产处于供给端；在国民经济循环中，生产处于基础性地位。消费环节在社会再生产中既是上一个循环的终点，又是下一个循环的起点，因此在国民经济循环中具有独特地位。在供求关系中，消费处于需求端，包括生产消费和生活消费。生活消费是最终消费，构成真正的、直接的需求；生产消费通常表现为投资，投资会增加购买，因而会增加总需求。但同时，投资的目的是生产，因而从未来看其实质是增加总供给。因此，对于投资增加总需求的作用要作具体分析。分配环节和流通环节不直接形成供求关系，但却在国民经济循环中发挥着不可或缺的中介作用。离开收入分配，消费也就无从谈起；离开流通，生产和消费之间的循环也就无法衔接。

General Secretary Xi Jinping, in *Grasping the New Development Stage, Implementing the New Development Concept, and Establishing the New Development Pattern*, pointed out: “Economic activities require the combination of various production factors to be organically connected in the links of production, distribution, circulation, and consumption, thereby achieving cyclical flow.” To smooth the national economic cycle, it is not only necessary to balance the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand but also to promote the interaction and organic connection among the various links of social reproduction. If the circulation among the various links of social reproduction is smooth, material products will increase, social wealth will accumulate, people’s welfare will improve, and national strength will be enhanced, thus forming a spiraling upward development process. If blockages or breaks occur, the cycle will be hindered, manifesting at the macro level as a decline in growth rate, increased unemployment, accumulation of risks, and imbalance in the balance of payments, and at the micro level as overcapacity, declining enterprise efficiency, and falling household income.

习近平总书记在《把握新发展阶段，贯彻新发展理念，构建新发展格局》中指出：“经济活动需要各种生产要素的组合在生产、分配、流通、消费各环节有机衔接，从而实现循环流转。”畅通国民经济循环，不仅需要统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，更需要推动社会再生产各个环节之间相互作用、有机衔接。社会再生产各个环节之间如果循环顺畅，物质产品会增加，社会财富会积聚，人民福祉会增进，国家实力会增强，从而形成一个螺旋式上升的发展过程；如果出现堵点、断点，循环就会受阻，在宏观上就会表现为增长速度下降、失业增加、风险积累、国际收支失衡等情况，在微观上就会表现为产能过剩、企业效益下降、居民收入下降等问题。

For macroeconomic governance, if viewed solely from the supply-demand relationship, it is generally believed that supply-side management is for the long term and demand-side management is for the short term, making it difficult for both sides to exert force simultaneously, and thus impossible to balance them. This understanding abstracts away the inherent laws of interaction and organic connection among the various links of social reproduction, carrying a certain one-sidedness. Under the conditions of a modern market economy, the national economy is a complete, continuous whole in time and space, a complex system of interconnected and unceasing movement. As long as the activities of social reproduction do not cease, the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand is always in a state of mutual influence and interaction, making it an inevitable requirement to balance the two. This is also the theoretical basis for the Party Central Committee’s proposal to organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reform. China adheres to the main line of deepening supply-side structural reform, comprehensively optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure, enhancing innovation capacity, competitiveness, and comprehensive national strength, and strengthening the resilience of the supply system. This can effectively improve supply capacity, thereby penetrating cycle blockages, eliminating bottlenecks, and creating employment and increasing income, thus forming demand capacity. At the same time, based on the actual situation of China’s economic development, fully leveraging the advantages of the ultra-large-scale market, establishing an effective system for expanding domestic demand, releasing the potential of domestic demand, and accelerating the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system will make the construction of an ultra-large-scale domestic market a sustainable historical process.

对于宏观经济治理，如果仅仅从供求关系看，一般会认为供给侧管理是管长期的，需求侧管理是管短期的，两侧难以同时发力，也就无法统筹。这种认识抽象掉了社会再生产各个环节之间相互作用、有机衔接的内在规律，带有一定的片面性。在现代市场经济条件下，国民经济在时间和空间上是一个完整、连续的整体，是一个相互联系、运动不息的复杂系统。只要社会再生产活动不停止，总供给和总需求的关系就始终处于相互影响、相互作用中，统筹二者之间的关系就成为必然要求。这也是党中央提出把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来的理论依据所在。我国坚持深化供给侧结构性改革这条主线，全面优化升级产业结构，提升创新能力、竞争力和综合实力，增强供给体系的韧性，能够有效提升供给能力，进而穿透循环堵点、消除瓶颈制约，并创造就业和提高收入，从而形成需求能力。同时，根据我国经济发展实际情况，充分发挥超大规模市场优势，建立起扩大内需的有效制度，释放内需潜力，加快培育完整内需体系，将使建设超大规模的国内市场成为一个可持续的历史过程。

Among the nine key tasks to be focused on in 2025 proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference, the first is to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all aspects; the second is to lead the development of new quality productive forces with scientific and technological innovation and build a modern industrial system. Organically combining the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reform is precisely aimed at forming a more efficient and higher-quality input-output relationship, unblocking the choke points and blockages in the economic cycle, promoting positive interaction between supply and demand, and achieving a dynamic balance of the economy at a high level.

在中央经济工作会议提出2025年要抓好的九项重点任务中，一是大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求；二是以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，建设现代化产业体系。把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来，正是为了形成更高效率和更高质量的投入产出关系，打通经济循环卡点堵点，推动供需良性互动，实现经济在高水平上的动态平衡。

Based on Promoting High-Quality Development, Deeply Grasp the Relationship between Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand

立足推动高质量发展，深刻把握总供给和总需求的关系

A country or society’s economic development always strives to achieve a balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, thereby realizing the macroeconomic goals of economic growth, price stability, full employment, and balance of payments equilibrium. At the same time, it must be recognized that merely promoting a balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand does not necessarily represent growth, let alone high-quality development. To deeply grasp the imperative to “balance the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand and smooth the national economic cycle,” one cannot abstractly remain at the level of the equilibrium relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand; it must be implemented in the practice of promoting high-quality development in China since the New Era.

一个国家或社会的经济发展总是力求实现总供给和总需求的平衡，从而实现经济增长、物价稳定、充分就业和国际收支平衡这些宏观经济目标。同时需要看到，仅仅是推动总供给和总需求的平衡并不必然代表增长，更不必然代表高质量发展。深刻把握“必须统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，畅通国民经济循环”，不能抽象停留在总供给和总需求的平衡关系上，必须落实到新时代以来我国推动高质量发展的实践中来。

Since the New Era, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has put forward the new development concept, guiding our economy onto the path of high-quality development. The 19th National Congress of the CPC stated that “our economy has shifted from a phase of high-speed growth to a phase of high-quality development,” the 20th National Congress of the CPC further emphasized that “high-quality development is the primary task in building a modern socialist country in all respects,” and the Third Plenary Session of the 20th National Congress of the CPC made important deployments for improving the systems and mechanisms to promote high-quality development, stressing that “we must guide reform with the new development concept, base ourselves on the new stage of development, deepen supply-side structural reform, improve incentive and constraint mechanisms to promote high-quality development, and shape new drivers and new advantages for development.” This indicates that to properly coordinate the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand and smooth the national economic cycle, we must firmly grasp high-quality development as this primary task. In this regard, we must understand it from the perspective of the supply-demand relationship in economic operation and the dialectical relationships among the various links of the economic cycle.

新时代以来，以习近平同志为核心的党中央提出新发展理念，引领我国经济走上高质量发展之路。党的十九大提出“我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段”，党的二十大进一步强调“高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务”，党的二十届三中全会对健全推动经济高质量发展体制机制作出重要部署，强调“必须以新发展理念引领改革，立足新发展阶段，深化供给侧结构性改革，完善推动高质量发展激励约束机制，塑造发展新动能新优势”。这表明，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，畅通国民经济循环，必须牢牢把握高质量发展这个首要任务。对此，我们要从经济运行中的供求关系、经济循环各个环节的辩证关系来把握。

In his work “Our Economy Has Shifted from a Phase of High-Speed Growth to a Phase of High-Quality Development,” General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: “From the supply side, high-quality development should achieve a relatively complete industrial system, networked and intelligent production organization methods, strong innovation, demand-capturing ability, brand influence, and core competitiveness, and high product and service quality. From the demand side, high-quality development should continuously meet the personalized, diversified, and ever-upgrading needs of the people, and this demand in turn leads to changes in the supply system and structure, while supply changes continuously generate new demand.” On this basis, General Secretary Xi Jinping further elaborated on the inherent requirements of high-quality development from the deeper relationship of smooth economic circulation: “From the perspective of the macroeconomic cycle, high-quality development should achieve smooth circulation of production, distribution, exchange, and consumption, relatively reasonable major economic proportions and spatial layout, and relatively stable economic development without major fluctuations.” This indicates that only by properly coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand based on promoting high-quality development can we better smooth the national economic cycle.

习近平总书记在《我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段》中指出：“从供给看，高质量发展应该实现产业体系比较完整，生产组织方式网络化智能化，创新力、需求捕捉力、品牌影响力、核心竞争力强，产品和服务质量高。从需求看，高质量发展应该不断满足人民群众个性化、多样化、不断升级的需求，这种需求又引领供给体系和结构的变化，供给变革又不断催生新的需求。”在此基础上，习近平总书记进一步从经济循环畅通的深层关系上指出高质量发展的内在要求：“从宏观经济循环看，高质量发展应该实现生产、流通、分配、消费循环通畅，国民经济重大比例关系和空间布局比较合理，经济发展比较平稳，不出现大的起落。”这表明，只有立足推动高质量发展统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，才能更好畅通国民经济循环。

To promote high-quality development and achieve unimpeded economic circulation, we must accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. This is because constructing a new development pattern profoundly explains that the characteristic and advantage of a major country’s economy lie in domestic demand as the mainstay and internal recyclability, providing us with theoretical and practical guidance for continuously improving the quality and efficiency of national economic operation. The unimpeded economic circulation under the new development pattern is not a balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the general sense, but a balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand based on achieving high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening. From the inherent requirements of the national economic cycle, constructing a new development pattern requires, in the production field, adhering to innovation-driven development, achieving breakthroughs in key core technologies, solving the “bottleneck” problem, developing new quality productive forces according to local conditions, and promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial and supply chains; in the distribution field, optimizing the distribution structure, expanding the middle-income group, and solidly advancing common prosperity; in the circulation field, building a unified national market, promoting the unification of basic market system rules, fair and unified market supervision, and high-standard connectivity of market facilities; in the consumption field, accelerating the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system, and continuously consolidating the important foundation for strengthening the dominant position of the domestic cycle.

推动高质量发展，实现经济循环的畅通无阻，必须加快构建新发展格局。这是因为构建新发展格局深刻解释了大国经济的特征和优势在于内需为主导、内部可循环，为我们不断提高国民经济运行质效提供了理论和实践上的指导。新发展格局下的经济循环畅通无阻，不是一般意义上的总供给和总需求之间的平衡，而是在实现高水平科技自立自强基础上的总供给和总需求之间的平衡。从国民经济循环内在要求看，构建新发展格局，在生产领域要求坚持创新驱动，在关键核心技术上实现突破，解决“卡脖子”问题，因地制宜发展新质生产力，推动产业链供应链优化升级；在分配领域要求优化分配结构，发展壮大中等收入群体，扎实推进共同富裕；在流通领域要求构建全国统一大市场，推动市场基础制度规则统一、市场监管公平统一、市场设施高标准联通；在消费领域要求加快培育完整内需体系，不断夯实增强国内大循环主体地位的重要基础。

Since the New Era, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has scientifically coordinated the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, profoundly grasped the laws of smooth national economic circulation, promoted continuous new achievements in China’s high-quality development, and enabled the economic aggregate and quality to continuously reach new levels. From 2013 to 2024, China’s gross domestic product grew from 56.9 trillion yuan to 134.9 trillion yuan, with an average contribution rate to world economic growth exceeding 30%; strategic emerging industries have grown and strengthened, digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and 5G have developed rapidly, and new drivers have increasingly grown and matured. At the same time, China has become one of the countries with the fastest reduction in energy intensity globally, with the world’s largest installed capacity of renewable energy and the fastest development speed. This fully demonstrates the important significance of “must properly coordinate the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand and smooth the national economic cycle” for promoting high-quality development.

新时代以来，以习近平同志为核心的党中央科学统筹总供给和总需求的关系，深刻把握国民经济循环畅通规律，推动我国高质量发展不断开创新局面，经济总量和质量不断跃上新台阶。2013—2024年，我国国内生产总值从56.9万亿元增长到134.9万亿元，对世界经济增长平均贡献率超过30%；战略性新兴产业发展壮大，人工智能、云计算、5G等数字技术快速发展，新动能日益成长壮大。同时，我国已经成为全球能耗强度降低最快的国家之一，可再生能源装机规模全球最大、发展速度全球最快。这充分证明“必须统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，畅通国民经济循环”对于推动高质量发展的重要意义。

Grasp the principal aspect of the contradiction, properly coordinate the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, and smooth the national economic cycle

抓住矛盾的主要方面，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，畅通国民经济循环

Currently, influenced by many domestic and international factors, China’s national economic cycle still faces numerous problems and challenges, mainly manifested in: on the one hand, the world’s century-old changes are accelerating, the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, which may have a greater impact on China’s trade, science and technology, and other fields; unilateralism and protectionism are intensifying, individual countries are unrelenting in their containment and suppression of China, global industrial and supply chains are undergoing adjustment and restructuring, hindering the international economic cycle; China’s systems and mechanisms for high-level opening up need to be further improved, and its ability to attract high-quality global factors and resources needs to be further enhanced. On the other hand, China’s problem of unbalanced and inadequate development still exists, the foundation for economic recovery and improvement is not yet solid, effective demand is insufficient, leading to difficulties in production and operation for some enterprises, pressure on people’s employment and income growth, and shortcomings in areas of people’s livelihood; the ability for scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening needs to be improved, the resilience of industrial and supply chains is insufficient, and there are still many risks and hidden dangers in key areas. Analyzing the causes, from the demand side, insufficient domestic demand, mainly characterized by sluggish consumption, results in weak momentum and unsmooth circulation in the domestic cycle; coupled with the fact that constructing a new development pattern is a gradual process, the adjustment of the relative relationship between domestic demand and international demand cannot be achieved overnight, so the adverse effects brought by changes in the external environment will increase the challenges facing China’s economic operation. From the supply side, China’s transition from old to new drivers has not yet been completed, and using technological innovation to foster new industries, new models, and new drivers, as well as empowering traditional industries, all require time. In particular, the above process requires optimizing resource allocation, and before this, the problem of supply-demand mismatch will appear in the short term. From a broader perspective, the deeper issue involves the transformation and upgrading of the entire social reproduction and its economic cycle structure, for which we must accelerate the filling of shortcomings in domestic demand, especially consumption.

当前，受国内外诸多因素的影响，我国国民经济循环仍然面临不少问题和挑战，主要表现在：一方面，世界百年变局加速演进，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，可能对我国贸易、科技等领域造成更大冲击；单边主义、保护主义加剧，个别国家对我国遏制打压势头不减，全球产业链供应链调整重构，对国际经济循环造成阻碍；我国高水平对外开放体制机制有待健全完善，吸引全球优质要素资源的能力有待进一步增强。另一方面，我国发展不平衡不充分问题仍然存在，经济回升向好基础还不稳固，有效需求不足，导致部分企业生产经营困难，群众就业增收面临压力，民生领域存在短板；科技自立自强能力有待提升，产业链供应链韧性不强，重点领域风险隐患还有不少。分析原因，从需求侧看，以消费不振为主要特点的国内需求不足，致使国内大循环动力不充沛、循环不畅通；再加上新发展格局的构建是一个循序渐进的过程，国内需求与国际需求相对关系的调整不可能一蹴而就，因此外部环境变化带来的不利影响将增加我国经济运行面临的挑战。从供给侧看，我国新旧动能转换尚未完成，以科技创新催生新产业、新模式、新动能并赋能传统产业均需假以时日。特别是上述过程要求优化资源配置，而在此之前供需不协调的问题将在短期内出现。从大的方面看，更深层次的问题涉及整个社会再生产及其经济循环结构的转型升级，为此要加快补上内需特别是消费短板。

In his work “Ensuring Our Country’s Economic Ship Sails Steadily and Far,” General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: “Expanding domestic demand concerns not only economic stability but also economic security; it is not an expedient measure but a strategic move.” The Central Economic Work Conference placed “vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and expanding domestic demand in all respects” as the top priority task for 2025, fully reflecting the Party Central Committee’s profound grasp of the prominent contradictions in current economic operation. To properly coordinate the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand and smooth the national economic cycle, we must adhere to implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand. At the same time, we cannot weaken supply-side structural reform just because we emphasize expanding domestic demand. We must grasp the dialectical relationship between supply-side structural reform and expanding domestic demand, and through implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, a moderately loose monetary policy, and various policy “combinations,” systematically integrate and coordinate them to ensure that our country’s economic ship sails steadily and far.

习近平总书记在《确保我国经济航船乘风破浪、行稳致远》中指出：“扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之举。”中央经济工作会议把“大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求”作为2025年要抓好的重点任务之首，充分体现了党中央对当前经济运行突出矛盾的深刻把握。统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，畅通国民经济循环，要坚持实施扩大内需战略。同时，不能因为强调扩大内需就弱化供给侧结构性改革。我们要把握好供给侧结构性改革和扩大内需的辩证关系，通过实施更加积极的财政政策、适度宽松的货币政策以及各种政策“组合拳”，系统集成、协同配合，确保我国经济航船乘风破浪、行稳致远。

On the demand side, expand domestic demand in all respects and expand high-standard opening up. It is necessary to give full play to the engine role of consumption and investment in expanding domestic demand. Income distribution affects final consumption; more employment opportunities should be created, residents’ income levels raised, and income increases and burden reduction promoted for middle- and low-income groups. Further shore up shortcomings in areas such as social security and basic public services, appropriately raise basic pensions for retirees, increase basic pensions for urban and rural residents, raise the fiscal subsidy standards for urban and rural residents’ medical insurance, and so forth, so as to enhance the willingness to consume. Implement special actions to boost consumption. While upgrading traditional consumption, accelerate the cultivation of new types of consumption, innovate diversified consumption scenarios, and vigorously advocate green and low-carbon consumption. Investment belongs to productive consumption and has a dual role in the national economic cycle; it requires scientific guidance and control. On the one hand, by implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, making good use of ultra-long-term special government bonds, giving full play to the traction of major projects and the leveraging role of government investment, guide and drive social investment. On the other hand, by implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy, strengthen supporting financing for ultra-long-term loans, reduce financing costs, promote a rebound in profit margins, and stabilize expectations for private investment. In the long run, investment increases aggregate supply; therefore, it is necessary, in accordance with national plans and the mix of macroeconomic policies, to actively guide social investment onto the path of high-quality development, avoiding low-level redundant construction that causes new overcapacity and wastes resources. The real estate industry has the dual role of boosting consumption and driving investment, and occupies a special position in expanding aggregate demand; the potential for demand should be released through sustained efforts to stabilize and halt the decline of the real estate market. A smooth national economic cycle cannot be separated from an efficient and smooth circulation system; it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a unified national market, improve the systems and mechanisms for high-standard opening up, and form a sound situation in which domestic and international dual circulations reinforce each other.

在需求侧，全方位扩大国内需求，扩大高水平对外开放。要发挥好消费和投资在扩大内需中的引擎作用。收入分配影响最终消费，要创造更多就业机会，增加居民收入水平，推动中低收入群体增收减负；进一步补齐社会保障和基本公共服务等方面的短板，适当提高退休人员基本养老金、提高城乡居民基础养老金、提高城乡居民医保财政补助标准等，提升消费意愿；实施提振消费的专项行动。在提升传统消费的同时，加快培育新型消费，创新多元化消费场景，大力倡导绿色低碳消费。投资属于生产消费，在国民经济循环中具有双重作用，需要科学引导和把握。一方面，通过实施更加积极的财政政策，用好超长期特别国债，发挥重大项目的牵引和政府投资的撬动作用，引导带动社会投资；另一方面，通过实施适度宽松的货币政策，强化超长期贷款配套融资，降低融资成本，促进利润率回升，稳定民间投资的预期。投资在长期内是增加总供给，因此要根据国家规划、宏观政策组合，积极引导社会投资走高质量发展之路，避免低水平重复建设引起新的产能过剩，造成资源浪费。房地产业具有增加消费和拉动投资的双重作用，在扩大总需求中具有特殊地位，要在持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳中释放需求潜力。畅通国民经济循环离不开高效顺畅的流通体系，要加快推动构建全国统一大市场，完善高水平对外开放体制机制，形成国内国际双循环相互促进的良好态势。

On the supply side, build a modern industrial system centered on accelerating the development of new quality productive forces. The following aspects should be highlighted: First, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Accelerate the high-quality development of key manufacturing industry chains, strengthen the rebuilding of the industrial foundation and the tackling of major technical equipment, and promote the “increase of varieties, improvement of quality, and creation of brands” in manufacturing. Second, optimize the regional layout of industries, promote the integrated and clustered ecological development of strategic emerging industries, and strengthen the national strategic scientific and technological forces. Third, cultivate future industries such as biomanufacturing, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G, and rely on the advantages of strong manufacturing capacity and a super-large market to continuously advance the “artificial intelligence+” action. Fourth, accelerate the establishment of systems and mechanisms for promoting the development of the digital economy, and improve the policy system for promoting the digitalization of industries and the industrialization of digital technology; promote the high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing, and build digital industry clusters with international competitiveness; accelerate the construction of new-type infrastructure, enhance the capacity for data security governance and supervision, and establish an efficient, convenient, and secure mechanism for cross-border data flow.

在供给侧，围绕加快发展新质生产力建设现代化产业体系。要突出抓好以下几个方面：一是推动传统产业转型升级。加快制造业重点产业链高质量发展，强化产业基础再造和重大技术装备攻关，推动制造业“增品种、提品质、创品牌”。二是优化产业区域布局，推进战略性新兴产业融合集群生态化发展，加强国家战略科技力量。三是培育生物制造、量子科技、具身智能、6G等未来产业，依托强大制造能力与超大规模市场的优势，持续推进“人工智能+”行动。四是加快构建促进数字经济发展体制机制，完善促进数字产业化和产业数字化政策体系；推动制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化发展，打造具有国际竞争力的数字产业集群；加快新型基础设施建设，提升数据安全治理监管能力，建立高效便利安全的数据跨境流动机制。

(The author is President of Nankai University)

（作者为南开大学校长）

Online editor: Tongxin

网络编辑：同心