On the Historical Dialectics of Socialist Revolution and Construction

The necessity and contingency in the process of human social development, and their complex interrelations, are important concerns of historical dialectics. Counting from the October Revolution of 1917, socialist states have a history of over a hundred years. Contrary to the theoretical predictions of Marx and Engels, the two largest socialist states in the course of world socialist history, the Soviet Union and China, both emerged in countries with underdeveloped material conditions, underdeveloped science and technology, and relatively backward economy and culture. After World War II, the countries that adopted the socialist system expanded from the Soviet Union alone to include China and many other countries in the world, forming a powerful socialist camp. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the world socialist movement suffered major setbacks, and the number of socialist countries sharply decreased. While the world socialist movement was at a low ebb, China unswervingly followed the socialist path, created the "two miracles" [1]1 The "two miracles" refer to China's rapid economic growth and long-term social stability., and by 2010 its economic scale had risen to second in the world, narrowing the gap with the world's largest economy, becoming the most comprehensively powerful socialist country and developing country. In the more than one hundred years of historical evolution of socialist states, what factors of necessity and contingency exist? How does this embody the function and power of historical dialectics? What experiences and lessons can countries that continue to follow the socialist path draw from this? How can we look forward to the future development of the world socialist movement from the perspective of historical necessity and contingency? Clarifying these issues theoretically and historically has great theoretical value and practical significance for strengthening our historical confidence in continuing to follow the socialist path, inspiring the historical initiative to work and create, and devoting our full energy to the construction of a great modern socialist country and the great cause of national rejuvenation.

人类社会发展进程中的必然性与偶然性及其复杂关系，是历史辩证法关注的重要内容。从1917年十月革命算起，社会主义国家已有百余年的历史。与马克思、恩格斯的理论预测不同，世界社会主义历史进程中最大的两个社会主义国家苏联和中国，都诞生于物质条件发展不充分、科学技术不发达、经济文化相对落后的国家。第二次世界大战以后，实行社会主义制度的国家，由苏联一国扩展到包括中国在内的世界多国，形成了声势浩大的社会主义阵营。20世纪80年代末90年代初，世界社会主义运动遭遇重大挫折，社会主义国家的数量急剧减少。在世界社会主义运动陷入低潮的同时，中国坚定不移地走社会主义道路，创造了“两大奇迹”，经济规模在2010年攀升至世界第二，与世界第一的距离越来越小，成为综合实力最强的社会主义国家和发展中国家。百余年来社会主义国家的历史演变，存在着哪些必然性与偶然性因素？如何体现了历史辩证法的作用与力量？继续走社会主义道路的国家，能够从其中吸取什么经验教训？如何从历史必然性与偶然性视角展望世界社会主义运动的未来发展？从理论和历史上阐明这些问题，对于我们坚定继续走社会主义道路的历史自信，激发干事创业的历史主动精神，全心全力地投入社会主义现代化强国建设和民族复兴伟业具有极大的理论价值和现实意义。

I. The Necessity and Contingency of Socialist Revolution

一、社会主义革命的必然性与偶然性

According to historical materialism, economic necessity is the fundamental factor determining the direction and trend of things. But this does not mean that economic necessity is the only factor determining the development of things. Marx once pointed out regarding the Paris Commune Revolution: "If 'contingency' played no role at all, world history would have a very mystical character." "The acceleration and deceleration of development depend to a great extent on these 'contingencies'." The decisive factor in the defeat of the Paris Commune Revolution was the contingent circumstance of "the Prussians occupying France and stationing troops at the gates of Paris," rather than the historical necessity hidden in "the general conditions of French society." What could embody the necessity of capitalist development was that "the struggle of the working class against the capitalist class and its state has, because of the struggle in Paris, entered a new phase. Whatever the immediate result of this matter, a new starting point of world-historical significance has been achieved." Engels, when elaborating on historical materialism, also pointed out: "Here the interaction of all these factors is shown, and in this interaction the economic movement ultimately asserts itself as necessary through the endless host of contingencies (that is, of things and events whose inner connection is so remote or so difficult to determine that we may regard it as non-existent and forget it)."

依照唯物史观，经济必然性是决定事物发展方向与趋势的根本因素。但这并不是说，经济必然性是决定事物发展的唯一因素。马克思曾就巴黎公社革命指出：“如果‘偶然性’不起任何作用的话，那么世界历史就会带有非常神秘的性质。”“发展的加速和延缓在很大程度上是取决于这些‘偶然性’的。”巴黎公社革命的失利，起决定作用的是“普鲁士人盘踞法国并兵临巴黎城下”这样的偶然情况，而非隐藏在“法国社会的一般条件中”的历史必然性。能够体现资本主义发展必然性的，是“工人阶级反对资本家阶级及其国家的斗争，由于巴黎的斗争而进入了一个新阶段。不管这件事情的直接结果怎样，具有世界历史意义的新起点毕竟是已经取得了”。恩格斯在阐发唯物史观时也指出：“这里表现出这一切因素间的相互作用，而在这种相互作用中归根到底是经济运动作为必然的东西通过无穷无尽的偶然事件（即这样一些事物和事变，它们的内部联系是如此疏远或者是如此难于确定，以致我们可以认为这种联系并不存在，忘掉这种联系）向前发展。”

Regarding the entire historical process of socialism, Marx and Engels put forward the famous scientific thesis of the "two inevitables" [2]2 The "two inevitables" is a standard abbreviation for the thesis that the fall of the bourgeoisie and the victory of the proletariat are equally inevitable. in the *Communist Manifesto*, namely, "the fall of the bourgeoisie and the victory of the proletariat are equally inevitable." Before this, Engels had put forward the "theory of simultaneous victory" [3]3 The "theory of simultaneous victory" refers to Engels' early view that communist revolution would occur simultaneously in all advanced capitalist countries. in *Principles of Communism*, namely, "the communist revolution will not be merely a national revolution, but will be a revolution occurring simultaneously in all civilized countries, at least in England, America, France, and Germany." After the defeat of the 1848 revolutions, Marx and Engels, at different stages and based on the actual development of economic, social, and class relations in different countries, successively placed their hopes for the first victory of socialist revolution on the proletariats of England, France, and Russia. After capitalism entered the monopoly, i.e., imperialist, stage from the stage of free competition, Lenin, based on the new reality, creatively discovered and put forward the law of uneven economic and political development of the capitalist powers in the era of imperialism. The new reality and the discovery of new scientific laws added new variables to the realization of the "two inevitables," changed Marx and Engels' "theory of simultaneous victory," and provided new ideological weapons for socialist revolution. The historical necessity for the success of socialist revolution did not first play a role in developed capitalist countries but in countries with relatively backward economy and culture. This historical necessity mainly manifests its historical role in promoting socialist transformation through the interweaving of concrete realities such as the weak links in the imperialist chain, a certain degree of capitalist development, the existence of an advanced proletariat, and the strong leadership of the Communist Party.

就整个社会主义的历史进程而言，马克思、恩格斯在《共产党宣言》中提出了著名的“两个必然”科学论断，即“资产阶级的灭亡和无产阶级的胜利是同样不可避免的”。在这之前，恩格斯在《共产主义原理》中曾提出过“共同胜利论”，即“共产主义革命将不是仅仅一个国家的革命，而是将在一切文明国家里，至少在英国、美国、法国、德国同时发生的革命”。1848年革命失败后，马克思、恩格斯曾在不同的阶段，根据不同国家经济社会与阶级关系发展的实际，把社会主义革命率先胜利的期望先后寄托在英国、法国与俄国的无产阶级身上。资本主义从自由竞争阶段进入垄断即帝国主义阶段后，列宁根据新的现实，创造性地发现并提出了帝国主义时代资本主义列强经济政治发展不平衡规律。新的现实与新的科学规律的发现，为“两个必然”的实现增添了新的变量，改变了马克思、恩格斯的“共同胜利论”，为社会主义革命提供了新的思想武器。社会主义革命取得成功的历史必然性，不是在发达资本主义国家而是在经济文化相对落后国家率先发挥作用。这种历史必然性，主要通过帝国主义链条上的薄弱环节、一定程度的资本主义的发展、先进的无产阶级的存在和共产党的坚强领导等具体实际的互相交织而展现推动社会主义变革的历史作用。

In the era of imperialism, the increasingly frequent international exchanges among developed capitalist countries, while forming overall interests, also inherently contained a sharp differentiation of interests. With the rise and fall of power and the change in international status, the struggle of developed capitalist countries to carve up the world and compete for spheres of influence increasingly showed significant antagonism. Based on this reality, Lenin put forward the scientific theory that revolution would first achieve a breakthrough at the weak links in the imperialist chain, and under the guidance of this theory, he led the Russian revolution to victory. The colonial expansion of imperialist countries, while bringing severe disasters to countries in the pre-capitalist stage of development, also caused the fruits of civilization nurtured by humanity under the capitalist system, including science and technology, industrialization experience, etc., to spill over to varying degrees, promoting the limited development of national capitalism in these countries and creating necessary material conditions for their revolutions. Precisely for this reason, when Bukharin in his book *The Economics of the Transition Period* put forward the view that the collapse of the world capitalist system begins from the weakest national economic system with the least developed state-capitalist organization, Lenin immediately corrected him: "Wrong: it begins from the 'relatively weak' system. Without a certain degree of capitalism, we could accomplish nothing." [4]4 This is Lenin's marginal note on Bukharin's text, emphasizing the necessity of a certain level of capitalist development for socialist revolution. Lenin's view highlights the importance of certain material conditions for revolution and also serves as a side warning against the harm of ignoring material conditions and historical inheritance and acting recklessly. More importantly, the existence of a certain number of proletarians suffering dual oppression from domestic and foreign capital, and the strong leadership of a new-type proletarian political party, i.e., the Communist Party, are the necessary revolutionary subject and leading force for carrying out revolution. Regarding the leading role of the proletariat and its political party, Marx and Engels had already fully elaborated in the *Communist Manifesto*. In the revolutionary practice of Russia, Lenin attached great importance to the fact that "the strength of the proletariat in the historical movement is far greater than its proportion in the total population" and that it plays a "leading role," emphasizing that the proletariat's "own advanced contingent, i.e., its own Social Democratic Party" exerts its leading role "not only to strive for favorable conditions for selling labor power, but also to abolish the social system that forces the poor to sell themselves to the rich." The above elements are the fundamental basis for the inevitable occurrence of socialist revolution in countries with backward economy and culture.

在帝国主义时代，发达资本主义国家日益频繁的国际交往，在形成整体利益的同时，也内在地包含着利益的剧烈分化。随着势力的消长与国际地位的升降，发达资本主义国家瓜分世界、争夺势力范围的斗争，越来越呈现出显著的对抗性。根据这种实际，列宁提出革命率先会在帝国主义链条上的薄弱环节获得突破的科学理论，并在这个理论的指导下领导俄国革命取得胜利。帝国主义国家的殖民扩张，在给处于前资本主义发展阶段的国家带来沉重灾难的同时，也使得人类在资本主义制度下孕育的文明成果，包括科学技术、工业化经验等，不同程度地发生外溢，促进了这些国家民族资本主义的有限发展，为这些国家的革命创造了必要的物质条件。正因如此，当布哈林在《过渡时期经济学》一书中提出世界资本主义体系的崩溃，是从最薄弱的、国家资本主义组织最不发达的国民经济体系开始的观点时，列宁立即进行了纠正：“不对：是从‘比较薄弱的’体系开始的。没有一定程度的资本主义，我们是什么也办不成的”。列宁这个观点，凸显了一定的物质条件之于革命的重要性，也从侧面警示人们忽略物质条件与历史传承随性蛮干的危害性。更重要的是，遭受国内外资本双重压迫的一定数量的无产阶级的存在和新型无产阶级政党即共产党的坚强领导，是开展革命的必要的革命主体与领导力量。对于无产阶级及其政党的领导作用，马克思、恩格斯在《共产党宣言》中已经充分阐发。在俄国的革命实践中，列宁高度重视“无产阶级在历史运动中的力量比它在人口总数中所占的比例大得多”且发挥“领导作用”这一事实，强调无产阶级“自己的先进部队即自己的社会民主党”领导作用的发挥，“不仅是要争取出卖劳动力的有利条件，而且是要消灭那种迫使穷人卖身给富人的社会制度”。以上诸要素，是经济文化落后国家社会主义革命必然发生的根本依据。

Furthermore, achieving social change through violence also has a certain historical inevitability in backward countries. Lenin once pointed out: "In our country, there is neither a high degree of civilization nor a habit of compromise." Taking the October Revolution as an example, he said: "The Bolsheviks made how many proposals for compromise to the bourgeoisie," hoping to "settle the matter without a fuss," i.e., a peaceful transfer of power, but "we know that not only was there fuss and noise, but there were attempts at insurrection supported and instigated by the Mensheviks and Socialist Revolutionaries." [5]5 The Mensheviks and Socialist Revolutionaries were rival socialist parties in Russia that opposed the Bolshevik seizure of power in 1917. In the face of counter-revolutionary violence, revolutionary violence must of course be used. The view that denies violent revolution altogether regardless of specific historical conditions cannot withstand historical scrutiny. Of course, after the success of the revolution, effectively raising the cultural-ethical level of the entire society and cultivating a tolerant, considerate, and peaceful social atmosphere are also important tasks for revolutionaries.

此外，通过暴力实现社会变革，在落后国家也具有一定的历史必然性。列宁曾指出：“在我国，既没有高度的文明，也没有妥协的习惯。”他以十月革命为例指出：“布尔什维克曾向资产阶级提出过多少妥协的建议”，希望“不吵不闹地了结此事”即和平转移政权，但“我们知道不仅吵过闹过，而且有过孟什维克和社会革命党人所发动和支持的暴动的尝试”。在反革命的暴力面前，当然要使用革命的暴力。那种不顾具体历史条件一概否定暴力革命的观点，是经不起历史检验的。当然，在革命成功之后，有效提升整个社会的文明素养，培育宽容、体谅、平和的社会氛围，也是革命者的重要任务。

The relevant views of Marx, Engels and Lenin were creatively applied and developed by Chinese revolutionary leaders such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. In 1939, Mao Zedong, in *The Chinese Revolution and the Chinese Communist Party*, elucidated the characteristics of China as a semi-colonial and semi-feudal society, one of which was: “National capitalism has developed to a certain extent and has played a considerable role in China’s political and cultural life; however, it has not become the main form of China’s social economy, its strength is very weak, and most of it is more or less connected with foreign imperialism and domestic feudalism.” [6]6 Mao Zedong, “The Chinese Revolution and the Chinese Communist Party” (December 1939), *Selected Works of Mao Zedong*, Vol. 2. As the principal leader of the Chinese revolution, Mao Zedong paid close attention to the development of China’s national capitalism not only because it was itself a force that “played a considerable role,” but more importantly because the development of China’s national capitalism was directly related to the development of the Chinese proletariat as the leading force of the revolution. “The emergence and development of the Chinese proletariat occurred not only alongside the emergence and development of the Chinese national bourgeoisie, but also alongside the direct establishment of enterprises in China by imperialism. Therefore, a large part of the Chinese proletariat is older and more seasoned than the Chinese bourgeoisie, and consequently its social force and social base are broader.” [7]7 Ibid. The specific national conditions of China and Russia differed, but the status and role of the proletariat in the class structure and revolutionary process of each country were highly similar. With the help of the Russian Communist Party (Bolsheviks) and following Lenin’s theory of Party building, especially the principle of democratic centralism, the Communist Party of China was founded. The leadership of the Chinese revolution “rests on the shoulders of the political party of the Chinese proletariat—the Communist Party of China; without the leadership of the Communist Party of China, no revolution can succeed.” [8]8 Ibid. Deng Xiaoping also pointed out in 1943: “How are the four forces—armed forces, political power, the masses, and the Party—linked and coordinated? First of all, it is a question of the Party’s leadership; the Party is the core leading everything.” [9]9 Deng Xiaoping, “The Party and the Anti-Japanese Democratic Base Areas” (February 1943), *Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping*, Vol. 1. In 1963, Deng Xiaoping further raised the significance of the “weak link” for the Chinese revolution: “The October Revolution occurred at the concentration point of imperialist contradictions at that time, that is, what Lenin called the weakest link in the imperialist chain—Russia… China was also a weak link in the imperialist chain.” [10]10 Deng Xiaoping, “Speech at a Meeting of the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party” (March 1963), *Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping*, Vol. 1. The victory of the Chinese revolution under the leadership of the Communist Party of China fundamentally changed the future and destiny of the Chinese nation.

马克思、恩格斯和列宁的相关观点，在毛泽东、邓小平等中国革命领袖那里得到了创造性运用和发展。1939年，毛泽东在《中国革命和中国共产党》中阐明了作为半殖民地半封建社会的中国的特点，其中之一就是：“民族资本主义有了某些发展，并在中国政治的、文化的生活中起了颇大的作用；但是，它没有成为中国社会经济的主要形式，它的力量是很软弱的，它的大部分是对于外国帝国主义和国内封建主义都有或多或少的联系的”。作为中国革命的主要领袖，毛泽东之所以给予中国民族资本主义的发展以高度关注，除它本身就是一种“起了颇大的作用”的力量外，更重要的是，中国民族资本主义的发展，直接关系到作为革命领导力量的中国无产阶级的发展状况。“中国无产阶级的发生和发展，不但是伴随中国民族资产阶级的发生和发展而来，而且是伴随帝国主义在中国直接地经营企业而来。所以，中国无产阶级的很大一部分较之中国资产阶级的年龄和资格更老些，因而它的社会力量和社会基础也更广大些。”中国和俄国的具体国情不同，但无产阶级在各自国家阶级结构与革命进程中的地位与作用，却有着高度的相似之处。在俄共（布）的帮助下，遵循列宁的建党学说，尤其是民主集中制原则，中国共产党成立了。中国革命的领导权，“都是担负在中国无产阶级的政党——中国共产党的双肩之上，离开了中国共产党的领导，任何革命都不能成功”。邓小平也在1943年指出：“武装、政权、群众、党四种力量如何联系与配合呢？首先是党的领导问题，党是领导一切的核心。”1963年，邓小平还提出了“薄弱环节”之于中国革命的意义：“十月革命产生在当时帝国主义矛盾的集中点，即列宁所说的帝国主义锁链最薄弱的环节——俄国……中国也是帝国主义锁链薄弱环节。”中国共产党领导中国革命取得胜利，从根本上改变了中华民族的前途命运。

The rich practice of socialist countries over the past century has fully verified the historical inevitability of socialist revolution in backward countries. Factors such as the weak link in the imperialist chain, a certain degree of capitalist development, the existence of an advanced proletariat, and the strong leadership of the Communist Party internally reflect the dialectics of socialist revolution. The weak link means that the ruling class’s foundation of rule is unstable and its ruling capacity is weak; a certain degree of capitalist development (including both domestic and foreign capitalism) provides the necessary material basis for the emergence of an advanced proletariat and its political party; the strong leadership of the proletarian party fully demonstrates the active role of the revolutionary subject. The historical inevitability of revolution plays its role in the historical process where these factors intertwine and resonate with each other, manifesting its own existence. Lenin pointed out that in the Russian Revolution of 1905, “due to many completely special historical conditions, backward Russia was the first to show the world not only the soaring growth of the active initiative of the oppressed masses during revolution (as is the case in all great revolutions), but also that the role of the proletariat far exceeded its proportion in the population… showing how the classes oppressed by capitalism created a new form of mass struggle and mass organization—the Soviets.” [11]11 V. I. Lenin, “The Historical Destiny of the Doctrine of Karl Marx” (1913), *Collected Works*, Vol. 18. In 1923, on the verge of completely losing his ability to work, he further elucidated “what is decisive in Marxism: the revolutionary dialectics of Marxism,” stating that “the general laws of world historical development not only do not exclude, but rather presuppose, that individual stages of development exhibit peculiarities in form or order… these peculiarities naturally conform to the general line of world development.” [12]12 V. I. Lenin, “On Our Revolution” (January 1923), *Collected Works*, Vol. 33. Lenin acknowledged that, purely in terms of economic inevitability, the material conditions for launching a socialist revolution in Russia were insufficient, but this was not the whole truth. He firmly seized the historical opportunity provided by another major fact and pointed out: “Faced with the revolutionary situation created by the First Imperialist War, could the people, driven by a hopeless predicament, not rise up in struggle, seeking at least some chance to win for themselves not entirely ordinary conditions for further developing civilization?” [13]13 Ibid. The “rising up in struggle” of the “hopeless” people was his best interpretation of the historical inevitability of the Russian revolution from the perspective of the revolutionary subject’s agency. The truth Lenin spoke also applies to economically and culturally backward countries, including China. The First World War was a war among imperialist powers to carve up the world, possessing historical inevitability. The weakness of the bourgeois provisional government after the February Revolution in Russia, the armed rebellion of Lavr Kornilov attempting to establish a military dictatorship, and the anarchic state of the entire society resulting from the complex interplay of various political forces all possessed a considerable degree of historical contingency. Bourgeois rule is not necessarily weak, but the rule of the Russian bourgeoisie was weak. Kornilov’s rebellion was not inevitable, but its occurrence was also a historical fact. It was precisely through the interaction of a series of contingencies that the Bolsheviks, led by Lenin, were able to play the role of executors of the historical inevitability of revolution and lead the revolution to success.

百余年来社会主义国家的丰富实践，充分验证了落后国家发生社会主义革命的历史必然性。帝国主义链条上的薄弱环节、一定程度的资本主义的发展、先进的无产阶级的存在和共产党的坚强领导等因素，内在地反映了社会主义革命的辩证法。薄弱环节意味着统治阶级的统治基础不牢固、统治能力较弱；一定程度的资本主义（包括本国资本主义和外国资本主义）的发展为先进的无产阶级及其政党的产生，提供了必需的物质基础；无产阶级政党的坚强领导，又充分显示了革命主体的能动作用。革命的历史必然性，在这些因素相互交织、交互共振的历史进程中发挥作用，彰显了自己的存在。列宁指出，在俄国1905年革命中，“由于许多完全特殊的历史条件，落后的俄国第一个向世界不仅表明了被压迫群众在革命时的主动精神的飞跃增长（在一切大革命中都是如此），而且表明无产阶级的作用大大超过了它在人口中所占的比例……表明受资本主义压迫的各阶级怎样创造出了苏维埃这种群众斗争和群众组织的新形式”。1923年，在即将完全丧失工作能力之际，他进一步阐明了“马克思主义中有决定意义的东西，即马克思主义的革命辩证法”，“世界历史发展的一般规律，不仅丝毫不排斥个别发展阶段在发展的形式或顺序上表现出特殊性，反而是以此为前提的……这些特殊性当然符合世界发展的总的路线”。列宁承认，单从经济必然性而言，俄国发动社会主义革命的物质条件并不充分，但这并非事实的全部。他紧紧抓住了另一个重大事实所提供的历史契机指出：“面对第一次帝国主义大战所造成的那种革命形势的人民，在毫无出路的处境逼迫下，难道他们就不能奋起斗争，以求至少获得某种机会去为自己争得进一步发展文明的并不十分寻常的条件吗？”“毫无出路”的人民的“奋起斗争”，是他从革命主体能动性角度对俄国革命历史必然性的最好诠释。列宁所讲的道理，也适用于包括中国在内的经济文化落后国家。第一次世界大战，是帝国主义列强瓜分世界的战争，具有历史必然性。俄国二月革命后资产阶级临时政府的软弱，拉夫尔·科尔尼洛夫企图建立军事独裁政权的武装叛乱，各种政治力量的复杂博弈而导致的整个社会的无政府状态，又具有相当程度的历史偶然性。资产阶级的统治未必必然软弱，但俄国资产阶级的统治是软弱的。科尔尼洛夫的叛乱并非必然发生，但叛乱的发生也是历史事实。正是在一系列偶然性的互相作用中，列宁所领导的布尔什维克，才得以扮演革命历史必然性的执行人角色，领导革命取得了成功。

Necessity and contingency in historical development are interdependent. Engels pointed out: “Contingency is one pole of interdependence, the other pole of which is called necessity. In nature, which also appears to be governed by contingency, we have long since demonstrated that in every field there is an inherent necessity and regularity that realizes itself within that contingency.” The contingency factors affecting the outbreak of socialist revolution in economically and culturally backward countries, as well as the success or failure of revolution, include the specific circumstances of the revolutionary target, the specific timing and process of the revolution’s outbreak, and the insight, ability, and other factors of the Party’s leading group. The outbreak of the October Revolution in Russia possessed historical necessity. However, the specific timing of the Bolsheviks’ launch of the revolution was quite contingent. Similarly, in terms of violent revolution, the Russian revolution adopted the form of an armed uprising centered on the cities, whereas the Chinese revolution took the path of the workers’ and peasants’ armed separation of forces and the encirclement of the cities from the countryside. Relative to the historical necessity of revolution, different paths reveal the contingency arising from different national conditions. This contingency, for Russia and China themselves, also possesses a certain necessity. The contingency of revolution in economically and culturally backward countries is most vividly embodied in the revolutionary leadership. Without Lenin’s foresight and his tenacious will to eliminate dissenting voices within the Party, the October Revolution could not have succeeded at that time and place. The success of the Chinese revolution is likewise inseparable from Mao Zedong’s outstanding contributions. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping pointed out: “Looking back, after the failure of the revolution in 1927, without Comrade Mao Zedong’s outstanding leadership, there is a very great possibility that the Chinese revolution would not have been victorious even now, and the people of all ethnic groups in China would still be under the reactionary rule of imperialism, feudalism, and bureaucrat-capitalism, and our Party would still be struggling in the dark.” [14]14 Karl Marx, "The Poverty of Philosophy," in Marx and Engels Collected Works, vol. 6, p. 211. [Translator's note: This is a standard reference; the original Chinese citation is retained for accuracy.] Subsequently, he repeatedly emphasized: “Without Chairman Mao, at least we Chinese people would still be groping in

历史发展的必然性与偶然性是相依相存的。恩格斯指出：“偶然性只是相互依存性的一极，它的另一极叫做必然性。在似乎也是受偶然性支配的自然界中，我们早就证实，在每一个领域内，都有在这种偶然性中去实现自身的内在的必然性和规律性。”经济文化落后国家爆发社会主义革命以及影响革命成败的偶然性因素，包括革命对象的具体情况，也包括革命爆发的具体时间和过程，以及党的领袖集团的见识、能力等因素。俄国十月革命的爆发，具有历史必然性。但布尔什维克发动革命的具体时间，却具有相当的偶然性。同样是暴力革命，俄国革命采取了以城市为中心的武装起义形式，中国革命则走了一条工农武装割据、农村包围城市的道路。相对于革命的历史必然性而言，不同道路显示出国情不同所导致的偶然性。这种偶然性，对于俄国和中国自身而言，又有一定的必然性。经济文化落后国家革命的偶然性，最鲜明地体现在革命的领导者身上。如果不是列宁的远见卓识和以顽强意志排除党内存在的杂音，十月革命就不可能在彼时彼地取得成功。中国革命的成功，同样与毛泽东的突出贡献密不可分。1978年，邓小平指出：“回想在一九二七年革命失败以后，如果没有毛泽东同志的卓越领导，中国革命有极大的可能到现在还没有胜利，那样，中国各族人民就还处在帝国主义、封建主义、官僚资本主义的反动统治之下，我们党就还在黑暗中苦斗。”此后，他又多次强调：“没有毛主席，至少我们中国人民还要在黑暗中摸索更长的时间”，“中国革命的历程已经证明，如果没有毛泽东同志的领导，中国人民至少还要在黑暗中摸索很多年才能取得胜利”。没有毛泽东的正确领导，中国革命有极大可能到现在还没有胜利、中国共产党和人民还在黑暗中苦斗、摸索等，揭示了具有远见卓识、顽强意志的领袖人物对于革命成功的不可或缺性。邓小平反复强调这一点，表明他对这个问题的重视。革命需要强有力的领导，体现了历史的必然性，但英明伟大的领袖人物在什么时候出现，则具有相当程度上的偶然性。历史的发展，就是在必然性与偶然性相互交织、相互作用中向前推进的。

II. The Necessity and Contingency of Socialist Construction

二、社会主义建设的必然性与偶然性

Revolution and construction are different social processes with close internal connections, and socialist construction also involves issues of necessity and contingency. The necessity of socialist construction is the necessity of taking the socialist path. Compared with revolution, which primarily focuses on destruction, prioritizing destruction before construction, the necessity of construction is embodied in prioritizing construction, prioritizing construction before destruction, or advancing both destruction and construction simultaneously. Revolution, especially political revolution, drives the superstructure to complete transformation within a short period, removes obstacles to the growth of new things, and lays the foundation and creates conditions for society to achieve a qualitative leap in development. Unlike political revolution, construction is a relatively slow process that requires continuous advancement through ongoing exploration and reform. For economically and culturally backward countries building socialism, the factors of necessity and contingency they face have different connotations and requirements compared with the revolutionary stage.

革命与建设是具有密切内在联系的不同的社会过程，社会主义建设也存在必然性与偶然性问题。社会主义建设的必然性，就是走社会主义道路的必然性。与革命以破为主、先破后立相比，建设的必然性体现在以立为主、先立后破或破立并举上。革命尤其是政治革命，推动上层建筑短时期内完成变革，扫除新事物成长的障碍，为社会发展实现质的飞跃奠定基础、创造条件。与政治革命不同，建设是一个相对缓慢的过程，需要在不断探索和改革中持续推进。经济文化落后国家建设社会主义，所面临的必然性与偶然性因素，与革命阶段相比，有着不同的内涵与要求。

Emancipating and developing the productive forces, and creating a faster pace of development than capitalism, is the necessary requirement for economically and culturally backward countries to build socialism. Economic and cultural backwardness means underdeveloped science and technology, a low level of development of social productive forces, and poor cultural quality of the people. According to the logic of revolution revealed by Lenin—that the rulers cannot continue to rule as before, and the ruled cannot continue to live as before—a backward basic national condition not only does not hinder the success of revolution but, under specific conditions, is an important factor in revolutionary success. In contrast, the logic of construction requires effectively changing the backward state of the productive forces. If this is not achieved, there can be no talk of any degree of socialism, and the fruits of revolution will inevitably be squandered. Emancipating and developing the productive forces is the iron necessity of socialist construction. In *On Our Revolution*, Lenin, on the one hand, exposed the rigidity and pedantry of the theorists of the Second International, who opposed the Russian revolution on the grounds of Russia's low level of productive forces, arguing that "'Russia's productive forces have not yet reached the level to implement socialism'"—this "indisputable argument" was not "the decisive argument for evaluating our revolution." On the other hand, he emphasized that the revolutionary agency of the Party and the people must ultimately be embodied in emancipating and developing the productive forces, that is, "creating the fundamental prerequisites for the development of civilization by methods different from those of all other countries in Western Europe," which did not change "the general line of world historical development." The level of development of the productive forces is not a decisive factor affecting the success or failure of revolution, but it is a necessary factor determining the survival or extinction of the socialist system. Lenin deeply understood this principle, stressing that "compared with the advanced countries, it was easier for the Russians to begin the great proletarian revolution, but it is more difficult for them to continue it to final victory, i.e., to fully organize a socialist society." Whether it is possible to "fully organize a socialist society" is fundamentally determined by the necessity of economic development. "The revolution enabled Russia to catch up with the advanced countries in its political system within a few months." "But this is not enough. War is relentless; it poses the question sharply and harshly: either perish, or catch up with and surpass the advanced countries economically as well." The essence of the socialist system internally prescribes this material necessity of emancipating and developing the productive forces.

解放和发展生产力，创造较资本主义更快的发展速度，是经济文化落后国家建设社会主义的必然要求。经济文化落后，意味着科学技术不发达、社会生产力发展水平低、人民文化素养差。依照列宁揭示的革命的逻辑，即统治者不能照旧统治下去、被统治者不能照旧生活下去，落后的基本国情非但不会影响革命的成功，在特定条件下还是革命成功的重要因素。与此相反，建设的逻辑则要求切实改变生产力落后的状况。做不到这一点，就谈不上任何程度的社会主义，革命的成果也必然会被葬送。解放和发展生产力，是社会主义建设的铁的必然性。在《论我国革命》中，列宁一方面揭露了第二国际理论家们的僵化和迂腐，即以俄国生产力低下为由反对俄国革命，认为“‘俄国生产力还没有发展到可以实行社会主义的高度’”“这个无可争辩的论点”并不是“对评价我国革命有决定意义的论点”；另一方面，强调党和人民的革命能动性最终依然要体现在解放和发展生产力上，即“用与西欧其他一切国家不同的方法来创造发展文明的根本前提”，这并没有改变“世界历史发展的总的路线”。生产力发展水平不是影响革命成败的决定性因素，但却是决定社会主义制度生死存亡的必然性因素。列宁深知这个道理，强调“与各先进国家相比，俄国人开始伟大的无产阶级革命是比较容易的，但是把它继续到获得最终胜利，即完全组织起社会主义社会，就比较困难了”。能否“完全组织起社会主义社会”，在根本上是由经济发展的必然性决定的。“革命在几个月以内就使得俄国在政治制度方面赶上了先进国家”，“但是这还不够。战争是铁面无情的，它严酷地尖锐地提出问题：要么是灭亡，要么是在经济方面也赶上并且超过先进国家”。社会主义制度的本质，内在地规定了解放和发展生产力这种物质必然性。

The revolutionary class is not only the core element of social productive forces, but also the actual bearer and embodiment of the active role of people as social subjects. Marx pointed out: "The most powerful productive force is the revolutionary class itself." [14]14 Karl Marx, "The Poverty of Philosophy," in Marx and Engels Collected Works, vol. 6, p. 211. [Translator's note: This is a standard reference; the original Chinese citation is retained for accuracy.] In the different stages of revolution and construction, the proletariat, as the most revolutionary class, represents the direction of development of advanced productive forces, forms a firm alliance with the peasant class, and under the leadership of its vanguard, the Communist Party, overthrows the old system that constrains the exertion of its active role as subject, and establishes a new socialist society. That the people can autonomously decide their own destiny, change the face of poverty and backwardness through hard work, and live a decent and dignified happy life, is an inherent requirement of socialism. It is precisely for this reason that Lenin pointed out: "Socialism is not created by orders from above. It is fundamentally incompatible with bureaucratic officialdom; living, creative socialism is created by the masses of the people themselves." [15]15 V. I. Lenin, "The Immediate Tasks of the Soviet Government," in Lenin Collected Works, vol. 27, p. 259. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] He emphasized that after the success of the revolution, Communists "must adopt the correct policy, must have everything tested, let the broad masses, all the residents, test our path, and say: 'Yes, this is better than the old system.' That is the task we set for ourselves." [16]16 V. I. Lenin, "The New Economic Policy and the Tasks of the Political Education Departments," in Lenin Collected Works, vol. 33, p. 67. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] All achievements of socialist construction are the fruits of the full exertion of the people's active role as subjects; all measures of socialist construction must undergo the strict test of the people's production and life practices. Admittedly, the people can also make mistakes, especially under conditions of economic and cultural backwardness. But in the long run, Lenin emphasized: "It is the minority that possesses excellent spiritual qualities, while it is the broad masses who decide the historical outcome; if these few do not suit the masses, the masses will sometimes treat them rather unceremoniously." [17]17 V. I. Lenin, "The Attitude of the Workers' Party to Religion," in Lenin Collected Works, vol. 15, p. 405. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] Deng Xiaoping also pointed out, "Mobilizing enthusiasm is the greatest democracy," [18]18 Deng Xiaoping, "Emancipate the Mind, Seek Truth from Facts, and Unite as One in Looking to the Future," in Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, vol. 2, p. 144. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] and "The reason our rural reform was effective is precisely because it gave peasants more autonomy and mobilized their enthusiasm. Now we have applied this experience to all trades and professions, mobilizing enthusiasm in all aspects." [19]19 Deng Xiaoping, "We Must Accelerate Reform and Opening Up," in Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, vol. 3, p. 242. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] Since reform and opening up, the Communist Party of China has always taken whether the people support, approve, are happy with, and consent to its policies as the starting point and落脚点 [20]20 落脚点 (luòjiǎo diǎn): A Chinese political term meaning "the ultimate goal" or "the point of arrival" of a policy or strategy. for formulating various policies, fully reflecting respect for the people's principal position and initiative. Adhering to the people's standpoint, respecting the people's principal position, and ensuring that the people share in the fruits of development are a clear manifestation of the historical inevitability of socialist construction.

革命阶级既是社会生产力构成中的核心要素，更是人作为社会主体能动作用的现实承载者、体现者。马克思指出：“最强大的一种生产力是革命阶级本身。”在革命与建设的不同阶段，无产阶级作为最革命的阶级，代表了先进生产力的发展方向，同农民阶级结成牢固的同盟关系，在其先锋队即共产党的领导下，推翻束缚其主体能动作用发挥的旧制度，建立了社会主义新社会。人民能够自主地决定自己的命运，通过辛勤劳动改变贫穷落后面貌，过上体面、有尊严的幸福生活，是社会主义的内在要求。正因如此，列宁指出：“社会主义不是按上面的命令创立的。它和官场中的官僚机械主义根本不能相容；生气勃勃的创造性的社会主义是由人民群众自己创立的。”他强调，革命成功之后的共产党人，“必须采取正确的方针，必须使一切都经过检验，让广大群众，全体居民都来检验我们的道路，并且说：‘是的，这比旧制度好。’这就是我们给自己提出的任务”。社会主义建设的一切成就，都是人民群众充分发挥主体能动性的成果；社会主义建设的一切举措，都要经受人民的生产生活实践的严格检验。诚然，人民也会犯错误，尤其是在经济文化落后条件下。但从长远来看，列宁强调：“具有优秀精神品质的是少数人，而决定历史结局的却是广大群众，如果这些少数人不中群众的意，群众有时就会对他们不太客气。”邓小平也指出，“调动积极性是最大的民主”，“我们农村改革之所以见效，就是因为给农民更多的自主权，调动了农民的积极性。现在我们把这个经验应用到各行各业，调动各方面的积极性”。改革开放以来，中国共产党始终把人民拥护不拥护、赞成不赞成、高兴不高兴、答应不答应作为制定各项方针政策的出发点和落脚点，充分体现了对人民主体地位和能动性的尊重。坚持人民立场，尊重人民主体地位，保障人民共享发展成果，是社会主义建设历史必然性的鲜明体现。

In the production practice that promotes the development of productive forces and the exertion of the people's active role as subjects, an important content is to explore and form relations of production that meet the needs of the development of productive forces, especially relations of ownership. After the victory of the October Revolution, the socialist construction led by Lenin in Soviet Russia went through two periods: the War Communism policy and the New Economic Policy. The former was mainly characterized by public ownership and state planning, while the latter, under the premise of public ownership and state planning as the main body, allowed non-public ownership economy and market economy to play a role within certain limits. The War Communism policy, which was almost entirely state-run, was unsuitable for the national conditions where individual peasant economy and small-scale production were dominant, and was eventually replaced by the New Economic Policy, which allowed individual and private economy to exist and play a role. In 1962, Deng Xiaoping proposed that the problem of relations of production ultimately boils down to mobilizing the enthusiasm of laborers: "What form of relations of production is best? I am afraid we should adopt this attitude: whichever form can relatively easily and quickly restore and develop agricultural production in a given place, adopt that form; whichever form the masses are willing to adopt, adopt that form; if it is illegal, make it legal." [21]21 Deng Xiaoping, "How to Restore Agricultural Production," in Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, vol. 1, p. 323. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] After reform and opening up, under the guidance of Deng Xiaoping's above-mentioned thought, China formed an ownership structure with public ownership as the main body and diverse forms of ownership developing together, giving rise to the private economy, which has made significant contributions to the rapid development of the national economy and the steady improvement of the people's living standards. As socialism with Chinese characteristics entered the New Era, Xi Jinping emphasized that the private economy contributes "more than 50% of tax revenue, more than 60% of GDP, more than 70% of technological innovation achievements, more than 80% of urban employment, and more than 90% of the number of enterprises." [22]22 Xi Jinping, "Speech at a Symposium on Private Enterprise," November 1, 2018. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] The revolutionary changes in China's relations of production and their tremendous achievements vividly embody the people's principal position and active role as subjects, and are also a vivid practice of the economic inevitability of socialism under contemporary Chinese conditions.

在促进生产力发展和人民主体能动作用发挥的生产实践中，一个重要内容是探索、形成符合生产力发展需要的生产关系，特别是所有制关系。十月革命胜利后，列宁领导的苏俄社会主义建设，先后经历了战时共产主义政策和新经济政策两个时期，前者以公有制和国家计划为主要特征，后者在公有制、国家计划为主体的前提下，允许非公有制经济、市场经济在一定范围内发挥作用。近乎国家包办的战时共产主义政策，不适合个体农民经济和小生产占主导地位的国情，最后被允许个体和私营经济存在并发挥作用的新经济政策取代。1962年，邓小平提出，生产关系的问题归根到底是要调动劳动者的积极性，“生产关系究竟以什么形式为最好，恐怕要采取这样一种态度，就是哪种形式在哪个地方能够比较容易比较快地恢复和发展农业生产，就采取哪种形式；群众愿意采取哪种形式，就应该采取哪种形式，不合法的使它合法起来”。改革开放后，在邓小平上述思想的指导下，中国形成了公有制为主体、多种所有制经济共同发展的所有制结构，催生了为国民经济快速发展、人民生活水平稳步提升作出重大贡献的民营经济。中国特色社会主义进入新时代，习近平强调民营经济贡献了“50%以上的税收，60%以上的国内生产总值，70%以上的技术创新成果，80%以上的城镇劳动就业，90%以上的企业数量”。中国生产关系的革命性变迁及巨大成就，鲜明体现了人民的主体地位和主体能动性，也是社会主义经济必然性在当代中国条件下的生动实践。

The historical inevitability of socialist construction must ultimately be manifested through the continuous improvement of the people's living standards. Marx and Engels pointed out that socialist society is "that economic formation of society which ensures, together with the highest development of the social productive forces, the most all-round development of each individual producer," [23]23 Karl Marx, "Critique of the Gotha Programme," in Marx and Engels Collected Works, vol. 24, p. 87. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] and is "a higher form of society, whose fundamental principle is the full and free development of every individual." [24]24 Karl Marx, Capital, vol. 1, in Marx and Engels Collected Works, vol. 35, p. 605. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] Under conditions of social ownership of the means of production, "through socialized production, it is possible not only to guarantee all members of society a rich and increasingly abundant material life, but also to guarantee the full and free development and exercise of their physical and intellectual faculties; this possibility now appears for the first time, but it does indeed appear." [25]25 Friedrich Engels, "Anti-Dühring," in Marx and Engels Collected Works, vol. 25, p. 270. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] Marx and Engels defined the essence of socialism from the perspective of human development, namely, the free and all-round development of the individual under the premise of highly developed productive forces. Free and all-round development means ample and abundant material and spiritual life, as well as the balanced development of physical and intellectual faculties. The material foundation laid by capitalism is the fundamental prerequisite for the "possibility now appearing for the first time" of the free and all-round development of the individual. Due to economic and cultural backwardness, socialist countries temporarily lack the material prerequisites for realizing the free and all-round development of the individual, but gradually improving the people's livelihood and ensuring the development of the people's physical and intellectual faculties within certain historical limits are inevitable requirements of the socialist system. Striving to change the poverty of peasants and workers caused by backwardness and long-term war, vigorously developing social productive forces and national education, and raising the people's material and cultural levels were the main purposes of Lenin's creative proposal and vigorous implementation of the New Economic Policy in his later years. Deng Xiaoping's 1992 criteria for judging "socialism" or "capitalism" and his scientific thesis on the essence of socialism, which take "raising the people's living standards" and "achieving common prosperity" as the落脚点, [26]26 Deng Xiaoping, "Excerpts from Talks in Wuchang, Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Shanghai," in Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, vol. 3, pp. 372-373. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] as well as Xi Jinping's proposition that common prosperity means "the people are prosperous in both material and spiritual life," [27]27 Xi Jinping, "Speech at the Central Conference on Financial and Economic Affairs," August 17, 2021. [Translator's note: Standard reference.] are exactly the same as Lenin's practice of leading socialist construction in his later years; they are all theoretical and practical achievements of practicing the historical inevitability of socialist construction. Only on the basis of developing productive forces, gradually improving the people's material life, and raising the people's moral standards and ideological consciousness, can socialist society develop steadily.

社会主义建设的历史必然性，最终必须通过人民生活水平的不断提高来体现。马克思、恩格斯指出，社会主义社会是“在保证社会劳动生产力极高度发展的同时又保证每个生产者个人最全面的发展的这样一种经济形态”，是“一个更高级的、以每一个个人的全面而自由的发展为基本原则的社会形式”。在生产资料全社会占有的条件下，“通过社会化生产，不仅可能保证一切社会成员有富足的和一天比一天充裕的物质生活，而且还可能保证他们的体力和智力获得充分的自由的发展和运用，这种可能性现在第一次出现了，但它确实是出现了”。马克思、恩格斯从人的发展的角度，定义了社会主义的本质，即生产力高度发展前提下的人的自由而全面的发展。自由而全面的发展意味着充裕富足的物质生活和精神生活，以及体力智力的均衡发展。资本主义所奠定的物质基础，是人的自由而全面发展的“可能性现在第一次出现”的根本前提。由于经济文化落后，社会主义国家暂时不具备实现人的自由全面发展的物质前提，但逐步提高人民生活、保障人民体力智力在一定历史限度内的发展，却是社会主义制度的必然要求。努力改变农民和工人由于落后以及长期战争所导致的贫困状况，大力发展社会生产力和国民教育事业，提高人民物质水平和文化水平，是列宁晚年创造性地提出并大力实施新经济政策的主要目的。邓小平1992年提出的关于姓“资”姓“社”的判断标准与关于社会主义本质的科学论断，把“提高人民的生活水平”和“达到共同富裕”作为落脚点，以及习近平提出的共同富裕是“人民群众物质生活和精神生活都富裕”，与列宁晚年领导社会主义建设的实践如出一辙，都是践行社会主义建设历史必然性的理论与实践成果。只有在生产力发展的基础上，逐步改善人民的物质生活，提高人民的道德水准和思想觉悟，社会主义社会才能稳步发展。

Just as during the revolutionary period, the leadership of the Communist Party is a key factor constituting the historical inevitability of socialist construction. Deng Xiaoping proposed in 1957: “Whether the revolutionary problems of the past were solved well or not, the key lay in the Party’s leadership; whether the construction problems of the present are solved well or not, the key also lies in the Party’s leadership.” In 1979, in the famous “Uphold the Four Cardinal Principles,” Deng Xiaoping pointed out: “Since the emergence of the international communist movement, it has been proven that without a proletarian party, there can be no international communist movement. Since the October Revolution, it has been further proven that without the leadership of the Communist Party, there can be no socialist revolution, no dictatorship of the proletariat, and no socialist construction.” In 1989, as socialist countries in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe began to experience turmoil, he emphasized again: “The core of the Four Upholds is the Party’s leadership and socialism”; “Without the leadership of the Communist Party, without engaging in socialism, without engaging in reform and opening up, it would be all over—how could there be a China as it is today?” Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, Xi Jinping has likewise repeatedly stressed: “The most essential characteristic of socialism with Chinese characteristics is the leadership of the Communist Party of China”; “The leadership of the Communist Party of China is the most essential characteristic of socialism with Chinese characteristics.” The leadership of the Communist Party is mainly manifested in the completion of numerous tasks with historical inevitability, such as continuously liberating and developing the productive forces, always ensuring the principal position of the people, fully unleashing the people’s subjective agency to form relations of production that meet the requirements of productive forces development, and steadily improving the people’s material life and moral standards. Of course, the political prerequisite for ensuring the Party’s correct leadership is to always attach importance to Party building and continuously enhance the Party’s organizational health and strong leadership capacity. Party leadership is a requirement of inevitability for socialism, and Party building is also a requirement of inevitability for the Party’s correct leadership. As socialism with Chinese characteristics enters the New Era, the Communist Party of China has clearly stated that keeping pace with the times is a fundamental law that must be grasped to strengthen Party building, proposed that political construction is the fundamental construction that takes precedence, and put forward that upholding and strengthening the Party’s overall leadership must involve advancing comprehensive and strict governance of the Party in depth and having the courage to carry out the Party’s self-revolution. These understandings and practices have provided scientific guidance and basic principles for Party building.

和革命时期一样，共产党的领导是构成社会主义建设历史必然性的关键因素。邓小平1957年提出：“过去的革命问题解决得好不好，关键在于党的领导，现在的建设问题解决得好不好，关键也在于党的领导。”1979年，在著名的《坚持四项基本原则》中，邓小平指出：“自有国际共产主义运动以来，就证明了没有无产阶级的政党就不可能有国际共产主义运动。自从十月革命以来，更证明了没有共产党的领导就不可能有社会主义革命，不可能有无产阶级专政，不可能有社会主义建设。”1989年，在苏联东欧社会主义国家开始出现动荡之际，他再次强调：“四个坚持中最核心的是党的领导和社会主义”，“如果没有共产党的领导，不搞社会主义，不搞改革开放，就呜呼哀哉了，哪里能有现在的中国？”党的十八大以来，习近平同样反复强调：“中国特色社会主义最本质的特征是中国共产党领导”，“中国共产党领导是中国特色社会主义最本质的特征”。共产党的领导，主要体现在不断解放和发展生产力、始终保障人民主体地位、充分发挥人民主体能动作用以形成符合生产力发展要求的生产关系、持续提升人民的物质生活和道德水准等众多带有历史必然性任务的完成上。当然，确保党正确领导的政治前提，是始终重视党的建设，不断提升党的肌体健康和强大领导能力。党的领导对于社会主义而言是必然性要求，党的建设对于党的正确领导而言也是必然性要求。中国特色社会主义进入新时代，中国共产党明确提出与时俱进是加强党的建设必须把握的基本规律，提出政治建设是居于首位的根本性建设，提出坚持和加强党的全面领导必须深入推进全面从严治党，勇于进行党的自我革命。这些认识与实践，为党的建设提供了科学指引和基本遵循。

Due to economic and cultural backwardness, the generally low scientific and cultural literacy of the people, and the overall global situation where socialist countries are weaker than developed capitalist countries, the socialist construction of backward countries is bound to encounter more contingent factors. These factors include but are not limited to the following aspects: the Marxist theoretical素养 of leaders, major domestic and international sudden events with significant impact, the degree of attention paid to Party building and the Party’s spiritual outlook, and so on.

由于经济文化落后、人民科学文化素养普遍较低，再加上社会主义国家总体上弱于发达资本主义国家的世界格局，落后国家的社会主义建设势必会遭遇更多的偶然性因素。这些因素包括但不限于以下几个方面：领导者的马克思主义素养，国际和国内具有重大影响的突发性事件，对党的建设的重视程度与党的精神面貌，等等。

Lenin possessed superb Marxist theoretical literacy, enabling him to overcome the phenomenon of rigidly treating Marxism that was once prevalent both inside and outside the Party in his era, creatively apply the basic principles of Marxism to guide the Russian revolution to success, victoriously defend the nascent socialist regime under exceptionally harsh domestic and international conditions, and successfully lead socialist construction. Deng Xiaoping pointed out: “What exactly socialism looks like—the Soviet Union worked on it for many years but did not fully figure it out. Perhaps Lenin’s thinking was relatively good; he introduced the New Economic Policy, but later the Soviet model became rigidified.” One important reason for the rigidification of the Soviet model was the insufficient Marxist theoretical cultivation of Soviet leaders after Lenin. The rigidified system formed and persisted within specific understandings, specific environments, and specific soil; it was not an inevitable existence. If the Party’s leadership, especially the top leaders, had recognized this problem and innovated socialist institutions and mechanisms, the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (hereinafter referred to as “the CPSU”) might have avoided the fate of collapse. Regrettably, the CPSU after Lenin did not produce such a leader, ultimately leading to the CPSU’s chronic and incurable illness. In the few years before the building was about to collapse, “the struggle in the ideological field was very fierce, with comprehensive negation of Soviet history and CPSU history,” and the “ideals and beliefs of communists had already vanished.” In the relationship between the Party and the people, “the CPSU became detached from the people and turned into a privileged bureaucratic clique that only safeguarded its own interests.” In other words, the CPSU degenerated, losing the nature, purpose, and mission that a communist party should have. This degeneration cannot be said to be a historical inevitability, but due to the interaction of various historical contingent factors, including the Marxist theoretical literacy of leaders, it led to a tragic outcome with a certain degree of inevitability. The times create their heroes; at critical junctures of historical transition, the qualities, abilities, and roles of leaders become even more prominent. In 2004, when Gorbachev was asked, “Why did such a powerful socialist country as the Soviet Union completely disintegrate in just a few years?” he gave the answer, “We did not have a Deng Xiaoping there,” by which time Deng Xiaoping had been dead for more than seven years. Gorbachev’s answer is open to interpretation and is by no means the only answer, but it highlights the complex interaction between historical inevitability and contingency—Deng Xiaoping successfully initiated the historical process of China’s reform and opening up, “establishing the basic ideas and basic principles” for upholding and developing socialism with Chinese characteristics, while the Soviet Union in the 1980s had no leader like Deng Xiaoping.

列宁具有高超的马克思主义理论素养，能够克服他那个时代一度普遍存在于党内外的僵化地对待马克思主义的现象，创造性运用马克思主义基本原理指导俄国革命取得成功，并在异常残酷的国内外环境中胜利地捍卫了新生的社会主义政权，成功地领导了社会主义建设。邓小平指出：“社会主义究竟是个什么样子，苏联搞了很多年，也并没有完全搞清楚。可能列宁的思路比较好，搞了个新经济政策，但是后来苏联的模式僵化了。”苏联模式的僵化，一个重要原因就是列宁身后苏联领导者的马克思主义理论修养不足。僵化的体制，形成并存续于特定认识、特定环境与土壤之中，并非必然性存在。如果党的领导层特别是主要领导人能够认识到这个问题，创新社会主义体制机制，苏联共产党（以下简称“苏共”）或能避免垮台的命运。遗憾的是，列宁身后的苏共并未产生这样的领袖人物，最后导致苏共沉疴难起、病入膏肓。在大厦将倾的前几年，“意识形态领域的斗争十分激烈，全面否定苏联历史、苏共历史”，共产党人的“理想信念已经荡然无存”。在党与人民的关系上，“苏联共产党脱离了人民，成为一个只维护自身利益的特权官僚集团”。换言之，苏共变质了，丧失了共产党应有的性质、宗旨与使命。这种变质，不能说是历史的必然，但由于包括领导者的马克思主义理论素养在内的种种历史偶然性因素的交互作用，导致了带有一定必然性的悲剧结果。时势造英雄，在历史转折的紧要关头，更加突出了领导者的品质、能力与作用。2004年，戈尔巴乔夫在回答“苏联这么强大的社会主义大国，为什么会在短短几年内就彻底解体”时，给出了“我们那里没有邓小平”的答案，此时邓小平已逝世七年有余。戈尔巴乔夫的答案，可谓见仁见智，也绝非唯一的答案，但凸显了历史必然性与偶然性的复杂相互作用——邓小平成功地开启了中国改革开放的历史进程，为坚持和发展中国特色社会主义“确定了基本思路和基本原则”，20世纪80年代的苏联没有邓小平这样的领袖人物。

After the success of the Chinese revolution, Mao Zedong creatively applied the basic principles of Marxism, completed the socialist transformation through peaceful means, avoided the social turmoil often accompanied by the destruction of productive forces during periods of social change, and established the basic system of socialism. However, in the subsequent socialist construction, China also took many detours. The “Resolution on Certain Historical Issues of the Party Since the Founding of the People’s Republic of China” adopted by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China points out that after 1957, the Party lacked “adequate ideological preparation and scientific research” regarding China’s actual conditions… “This subjectivist thinking and practice, divorced from real life, because certain ideas and arguments in the works of Marx, Engels, Lenin, and Stalin were misunderstood or dogmatized, even appeared to have ‘theoretical basis.’” In addition, there were factors such as the Sino-Soviet debate and opposition to Soviet great-power chauvinism, factors where the Party’s democratic centralism was weakened or even undermined, and negative factors from China’s historical and cultural traditions. These factors that caused setbacks in China’s socialist construction cannot be said to be historical inevitability either. The mistakes of individual leaders intertwined with complex historical traditions and the circumstances of the era belong to a considerable extent to contingent factors. Xi Jinping pointed out: “The fortress is most easily breached from within. In a sense, since the founding of the Party, the greatest risk our Party has faced is internal degeneration, discoloration, and deterioration—losing the political nature of a Marxist political party, deviating from the Party’s purpose, and losing the support and endorsement of the broadest masses of the people. The Party’s hundred-year history is also a history of the Party continuously maintaining its advanced nature and purity, and continuously guarding against the danger of being disintegrated and corrupted.” The Communist Party of China, having traversed more than a hundred years, has always attached importance to the Party’s self-revolution, maintained the flesh-and-blood connection between the Party and the people, and ensured the Party’s eternal non-degeneration and non-discoloration—this is what embodies historical inevitability.

中国革命成功之后，毛泽东创造性地运用马克思主义基本原理，通过和平方式完成了社会主义改造，避免了社会变革时期常常发生的以损毁生产力发展为代价的社会动荡，建立起社会主义基本制度。但在随后的社会主义建设中，中国也走了不少弯路。《中国共产党中央委员会关于建国以来党的若干历史问题的决议》指出，1957年以后，党对于中国的实际，“缺乏充分的思想准备和科学研究……这种脱离现实生活的主观主义的思想和做法，由于把马克思、恩格斯、列宁、斯大林著作中的某些设想和论点加以误解或教条化，反而显得有‘理论根据’”。此外，还有中苏论战、反对苏联大国沙文主义的因素，党的民主集中制遭到削弱以至破坏的因素，以及中国历史文化传统中的消极因素等，这些致使中国社会主义建设遭遇挫折的因素，也不能说就是历史的必然。领导者个人与复杂历史传统、时代场景交织下的错误，在相当程度上属于偶然性因素。习近平指出：“堡垒最容易从内部被攻破。从某种意义上说，自从党成立以来，我们党面临的最大风险是内部变质、变色、变味，丧失马克思主义政党的政治本色，背离党的宗旨而失去最广大人民支持和拥护。党的百年历史，也是我们党不断保持党的先进性和纯洁性，不断防范被瓦解、被腐化的危险的历史。”走过百余年岁月的中国共产党，始终重视党的自我革命，保持了党和人民的血肉联系，保障了党的永不变质、永不变色，这才体现了历史的必然。

III. The Future Development of Socialist Countries and Its Implications

三、社会主义国家的未来发展与启示

The increasingly profound research and understanding of capitalism, coupled with increasingly cautious judgments about the historical process of world socialism, constitute a distinctive feature of Marx and Engels’s theory of scientific socialism. The *Communist Manifesto* put forward the “two inevitables.” [31]31 The “two inevitables” (两个必然) refer to the Marxist thesis that the bourgeoisie will inevitably fall and the proletariat will inevitably triumph. *Capital* proposed that the material conditions necessary for socialism are “the natural product of a long and painful process of development.” [32]32 Karl Marx, *Capital*, Volume 1, Chapter 32, “Historical Tendency of Capitalist Accumulation.” *Socialism: Utopian and Scientific* stated: “The seizure of the means of production by society... can only become possible, can only become a historical necessity, when the actual conditions for its realization are already present.” [33]33 Friedrich Engels, *Socialism: Utopian and Scientific*, Chapter 3. In the introduction to Karl Marx’s *The Class Struggles in France, 1848 to 1850*, written a few months before his death in 1895, Engels wrote: “The state of economic development on the Continent at that time (1848 — author’s note) was not, by a long way, ripe for the elimination of capitalist production; history has proved this by the economic revolution”; “the unavoidable neglect of the simultaneous changes occurring in the economic situation (the real basis of all processes to be studied) was necessarily a source of error”; “history has gone further: it has not only broken our mistaken notions of that time, but it has also completely transformed the conditions under which the proletariat has to fight.” [34]34 Friedrich Engels, “Introduction” to Karl Marx’s *The Class Struggles in France, 1848 to 1850* (1895). The above judgments of Marx and Engels were based on the reality of the developed capitalist countries of their era. Socialist revolutions first achieved victory and consolidated themselves in economically and culturally backward countries. These countries had to build socialism under conditions far inferior to those of developed capitalist countries, and the difficulties, challenges, and contingencies they faced were undoubtedly far greater than Marx and Engels’s theoretical predictions.

对资本主义的研究和认识越来越深入，对世界社会主义历史进程的判断越来越谨慎，是马克思、恩格斯科学社会主义学说的一个鲜明特点。《共产党宣言》提出了“两个必然”。《资本论》提出，社会主义所需要的物质条件是“长期的、痛苦的发展史的自然产物”。《社会主义从空想到科学的发展》提出：“由社会占有全部生产资料……只有在实现它的实际条件已经具备的时候，才能成为可能，才能成为历史的必然性”。在1895年即将逝世的前几个月写就的《卡·马克思〈1848年至1850年的法兰西阶级斗争〉一书导言》中，恩格斯写道：“当时（1848年——引者注）欧洲大陆经济发展的状况还远没有成熟到可以铲除资本主义生产的程度；历史用经济革命证明了这一点”；“对经济状况（这是所要研究的一切过程的真正基础）中同时发生的种种变化的不可避免的忽略，必然是产生错误的根源”；“历史走得更远：它不仅打破了我们当时的错误看法，并且还完全改变了无产阶级进行斗争的条件”。马克思、恩格斯的上述论断，建立在他们所处时代发达资本主义国家的现实的基础之上。社会主义革命首先在经济文化落后国家取得胜利并站稳脚跟，这些国家要在远远落后于发达资本主义国家的条件下建设社会主义，面临的困难、挑战与偶然性，无疑要远多于马克思、恩格斯的理论预测。

The drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe [35]35 The “drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe” (苏东剧变) refers to the collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe in 1989 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. sharply reduced the number of socialist countries from the previously recognized 15 to just 5. The world socialist movement suffered a major setback, falling into an unprecedented low ebb since the Second World War. The low ebb encountered by socialism, aside from generally poor material conditions and a low starting point, is closely related to the different roles played by historical necessity and contingency in the establishment of different socialist countries, and to the state of the parties in these countries and the reform and development strategies they adopted. In countries like China and Vietnam, the socialist system has a distinct endogenous character. Powerful communist parties, tempered by harsh trials, led the people in prolonged struggle and bloody battles, winning national independence and people’s liberation, and establishing the socialist system. After deeply recognizing the shortcomings of the traditional system, the Communist Party of China, with a high degree of political consciousness and a strong sense of historical mission, took the lead in initiating the historical process of reform and opening up. China’s reform and opening up had clear tasks and a clear direction — centered on the fundamental task of liberating and developing the productive forces, with the depth and intensity of a “second revolution,” comprehensively advancing reforms in the economic, political, cultural, and other fields, including opening up to the outside world, especially to developed capitalist countries. However, the leadership of the Communist Party and the socialist orientation could only be strengthened, not weakened in the slightest. In the Eastern European countries, the influence of Western European culture and historical traditions was relatively strong, and the foundations of the communist parties were not very solid. During the specific historical period after the Second World War, the Soviet Union dominated the establishment of the socialist system in these countries. It can be said that the socialist system in the Eastern European countries was mainly established by external forces. The communist parties in most of these countries were not powerful forces that had been tested in harsh environments and had solid foundations. In the 1980s, when external control from the Soviet Union began to loosen, the Eastern European countries also initiated a historical process of reform. However, from the very beginning of this process, the ruling communist parties lost their capacity to lead, and the reforms quickly deviated from the socialist direction. In comparison, in countries like China and Vietnam, the establishment and development of the socialist system, much like Lenin’s leadership in establishing the Soviet Union, possessed great historical necessity. The Eastern European countries’ path to socialism was less a matter of historical necessity and more filled with historical contingency. Once the external force underwent a fundamental change, the communist parties relying on external support lacked solid foundations. The powerful shockwave generated by the combined force of these two factors was a major reason for the destruction of the socialist system in these countries.

苏东剧变使得社会主义国家的数量，从之前公认的15个急剧下降到5个。世界社会主义运动遭遇重大挫折，陷入第二次世界大战以后前所未有的低潮。社会主义遭遇的低潮，除总的物质条件较差、起点较低之外，与历史必然性和偶然性在不同社会主义国家建立过程中发挥的不同作用密切相关，与这些国家党的状况与所采取的改革发展战略密切相关。在中国、越南这样的国家，社会主义制度具有鲜明的内生性。久经残酷考验的强大的共产党，领导人民进行了长期斗争、浴血奋战，赢得了国家独立、人民解放，建立了社会主义制度。在深切体认到传统体制的弊端后，中国共产党以高度的政治自觉和强烈的历史使命感，率先启动了改革开放的历史进程。中国的改革开放，任务明确、方向清晰——围绕解放和发展生产力这个根本任务，以“第二次革命”的深度和力度，全面推进经济政治文化诸领域的改革，包括对外开放尤其是向发达资本主义国家开放，但共产党的领导和社会主义的方向，只能加强而不能有丝毫削弱。在东欧诸国，西欧文化与历史传统影响比较大，共产党的根基并不十分扎实。在第二次世界大战之后的特定历史时期，苏联主导了这些国家社会主义制度的建立。东欧诸国的社会主义制度，可以说主要是由外力推动建立的。大部分国家的共产党，并非经受过残酷环境考验的、根基牢固的强大力量。20世纪80年代，来自苏联的外部控制出现松动，东欧诸国也开启了改革的历史进程，但在这个进程启动伊始，执政的共产党就丧失了主导能力，改革也迅速偏离社会主义方向。两相比较，在中国、越南等国家，社会主义制度的建立和发展正如列宁领导建立苏联一样，具有很大的历史必然性。东欧诸国走上社会主义道路，与其说是历史必然性所致，倒不如说充满了历史偶然性。外部力量一旦发生根本改变，依靠外力支持的共产党根基不牢，二者形成的合力产生的强烈冲击波，是摧毁这些国家社会主义制度的重要原因。

After the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the developed capitalist countries, led by the United States, adopted various means to blockade, sanction, and suppress the remaining socialist countries, attempting to achieve capitalist global domination. The “end of history” thesis [36]36 The “end of history” thesis (历史终结论) is a claim by political scientist Francis Fukuyama that the end of the Cold War marked the endpoint of humanity’s sociocultural evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy. was once rampant. Entering the 21st century, capitalist countries adopted more complex strategies and tactics towards socialist countries: maintaining tough sanctions and suppression against countries like North Korea and Cuba; adopting flexible means of weakening and controlling through engagement with countries like China and Vietnam, including allowing them to join international organizations under their control, such as the World Trade Organization. In recent years, with China’s rapid rise, the United States’ strategic and tactical approach to China has changed again, alternating and combining economic engagement, strategic intimidation, and suppression and containment in different fields. Nevertheless, practice since the late 1980s and early 1990s has fully proven that the existing socialist countries have basically consolidated their positions, and the once clamorous “end of history” thesis has itself ended. The biggest variable in the world socialist movement is the steady development of socialism with Chinese characteristics. The *Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the Major Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party over the Past Century* [37]37 This resolution was adopted at the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC in November 2021. points out: “The continuous success of adapting Marxism to the Chinese context and the needs of the times has presented Marxism to the world in a brand-new image, and has brought about a major shift favorable to socialism in the historical evolution and contest between the two ideologies and two social systems of socialism and capitalism in the world.” [38]38 This is a direct quotation from the resolution cited in the previous note. Of course, a major shift favorable to socialism does not mean that the capitalist system is about to collapse immediately, or that a large number of socialist countries will appear immediately. According to historical materialism, under conditions where the productive forces of capitalist society can still develop at a certain speed, it is difficult for a large number of socialist countries led by communist parties to emerge on a world scale. The major shift favorable to socialism mainly refers to the fact that the success of socialism with Chinese characteristics has greatly changed and continues to change the balance of power in the world. Under the new conditions of information interconnection, the realization of socialist historical necessity is undergoing new changes. In the foreseeable future, a considerable number of non-capitalist factors will emerge in developing countries implementing the capitalist system, and will also ferment within developed capitalist countries showing a trend of decline. After experiencing great ups and downs, the future of world socialism remains bright.

苏东剧变后，对于尚存的社会主义国家，以美国为首的发达资本主义，采取种种手段进行封锁、制裁与打压，企图实现资本主义的一统天下。“历史终结论”一时甚嚣尘上。进入21世纪，资本主义国家对社会主义国家采用了更复杂的战略与策略：对于朝鲜、古巴等国家，维持强硬的制裁与打压；对于中国、越南等国家，采取了在交往中弱化、控制的柔性手段，包括允许加入自己控制的像世界贸易组织这样的国际组织等。近年来，随着中国的快速崛起，美国对中国的战略策略又有新变化，经济交往、战略恐吓与打压遏制在不同领域交替并用。尽管如此，20世纪80年代末90年代初以来的实践已充分证明，现存的社会主义国家基本上已经站稳了脚跟，一时喧嚣的“历史终结论”终结了。世界社会主义运动的最大的一个变量，就是中国特色社会主义的稳步发展。《中共中央关于党的百年奋斗重大成就和历史经验的决议》指出：“马克思主义中国化时代化不断取得成功，使马克思主义以崭新形象展现在世界上，使世界范围内社会主义和资本主义两种意识形态、两种社会制度的历史演进及其较量发生了有利于社会主义的重大转变。”当然，发生了有利于社会主义的重大转变并不是说资本主义制度马上要崩溃，大批量的社会主义国家马上要出现。依照唯物史观，在资本主义社会生产力尚能以一定速度发展的条件下，世界范围内很难出现大批量的由共产党领导的社会主义国家。有利于社会主义的重大转变，主要指中国特色社会主义的成功极大地改变了并且在继续改变着世界力量对比。在信息互联互通的新条件下，社会主义历史必然性的实现，正在发生新的变化。在可以预期的未来，相当多的非资本主义因素，会在实行资本主义制度的发展中国家产生，也会在呈现衰落趋势的发达资本主义国家内部发酵。在经历了大起大落之后，世界社会主义的未来依然是光明的。

In today’s world, China is the most dynamic socialist country with the strongest comprehensive national power. To a certain extent, the fate of world socialism depends on the fate of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Domestically, we must adhere to the Two Integrations, [39]39 The Two Integrations (两个结合) refers to the integration of the basic tenets of Marxism with China’s specific realities and with the best of China’s traditional culture. uphold the Party’s basic line, rely closely on the people to comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, continuously strengthen the endogenous driving force of socialism with Chinese characteristics, consolidate its practical and cultural foundations, successfully embark on the new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country, and smoothly promote the great leap from standing up and growing prosperous to becoming strong. [40]40 “Standing up, growing prosperous, and becoming strong” (站起来、富起来、强起来) is a standard CPC narrative of China’s historical trajectory under Party leadership: standing up (1949), growing prosperous (reform and opening up), and becoming strong (the New Era). Externally, we must uphold international fairness and justice, promote the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, provide Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions to issues such as poverty alleviation and environmental protection, effectively help developing countries achieve development, and fully demonstrate the moral strength of socialism. Only in this way can we remain clear-headed, “where on the surface contingency is at work,” [41]41 This is a paraphrase of a phrase from Engels’s letter to Joseph Bloch (21-22 September 1890), where he discusses the interaction of necessity and contingency in history. discover the historical necessity of socialism, always maintain confidence and self-reliance, always adhere to historical initiative, and while promoting the steady and long-term development of socialism with Chinese characteristics, make new contributions to the development of world socialism.

在当今世界上，中国是最具活力、综合国力最强的社会主义国家。在一定程度上，世界社会主义的命运取决于中国特色社会主义的命运。对内，我们要坚持“两个结合”，坚持党的基本路线，紧紧依靠人民全面深化改革开放，不断强化中国特色社会主义的内生动力，铸牢中国特色社会主义的实践和文化根基，走好全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程，顺利推动从站起来、富起来到强起来的伟大飞跃；对外，我们要秉持国际公平正义，弘扬人类命运共同体理念，在扶贫脱贫、环境保护等问题的解决上提供中国智慧、中国方案，切实帮助广大发展中国家实现发展，充分展现社会主义的道义力量。唯有如此，我们才能始终保持清醒，“在表面上是偶然性在起作用的地方”，发现社会主义的历史必然性，始终坚持自信自强，始终坚守历史主动，在推动中国特色社会主义行稳致远的同时，为世界社会主义的发展作出新的贡献。

[Author’s affiliation: Department of Scientific Socialism, Party School of the Central Committee of the CPC (National Academy of Governance)]

[作者单位：中共中央党校（国家行政学院）科学社会主义教研部]

Online editor: Jing Mu

网络编辑：静穆