Opening Up a New Realm of Population Theory and Practice with Chinese Characteristics

Promoting high-quality population development is a new concept and new requirement put forward by General Secretary Xi Jinping. Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, General Secretary Xi Jinping, standing at the strategic height of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and sustainable development, has profoundly observed the changes in China’s population situation, scientifically grasped the laws of population development, and profoundly elucidated a series of fundamental, strategic, and overarching major theoretical and practical issues in the field of population development. He pointed out that “the population issue has always been a comprehensive, long-term, and strategic issue facing our country,” made the strategic deployment of supporting Chinese-path modernization with high-quality population development, and propelled historic new achievements in population work in the New Era. General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important discourse on high-quality population development profoundly explains the great significance, scientific connotation, and realization path of high-quality population development, opening up a new realm of population theory and practice with Chinese characteristics, and providing a fundamental guideline for doing a good job in population work in the New Era. The “Proposal” of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC [1]1 The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC was held in July 2024. The “Proposal” refers to the draft decision on further comprehensively deepening reform and advancing Chinese-path modernization discussed at the session. put forward “promoting high-quality population development” and made important deployments. To implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speeches and the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee, it is necessary to establish a “grand population perspective,” better leverage the fundamental, comprehensive, and strategic role of population factors, and support Chinese-path modernization with high-quality population development.

推动人口高质量发展，是习近平总书记提出的一个新概念、新要求。党的十八大以来，习近平总书记站在中华民族伟大复兴和永续发展的战略高度，深刻洞察我国人口形势变化，科学把握人口发展规律，深刻阐释了人口发展领域一系列带有根本性、战略性、全局性的重大理论和实践问题，指出“人口问题始终是我国面临的全局性、长期性、战略性问题”，作出以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化的战略部署，推动新时代人口工作取得历史性新成就。习近平总书记关于人口高质量发展的重要论述，深刻阐释了人口高质量发展的重大意义、科学内涵、实现路径等，开辟了中国特色人口理论和实践的新境界，为做好新时代人口工作提供了根本遵循。党的二十届四中全会《建议》提出“促进人口高质量发展”，并作出重要部署。把习近平总书记重要讲话精神和党中央决策部署落到实处，要树立“大人口观”，更好发挥人口因素的基础性、全局性、战略性作用，以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化。

Forming Original and Signature Concepts in the Organic Unity of Theoretical Logic, Historical Logic, and Practical Logic

在理论逻辑、历史逻辑、实践逻辑的有机统一中形成原创性、标识性概念

Concepts are the “cornerstones” for constructing the edifice of thought. Engels pointed out: “Every new insight in a science involves a revolution in the terminology of that science.” [2]2 This is a paraphrase of a well-known statement by Engels from the preface to the second edition of *Capital*, Volume I, where he discusses the “revolution in terminology” that every new scientific insight entails. Original and signature concepts are unique and creative forms of thinking that distinguish one theory or doctrine from others. An important manifestation of this uniqueness and creativity is the “revolution in terminology.” Advancing theoretical innovation through original and signature concepts is an important way to promote the theoretical innovation of the Party. The proposal of the concept of “high-quality population development” has significant original and signature significance in the history of population theory and scholarship, promoting a “revolution in terminology” in the development of population theory.

概念是建构思想大厦的“基石”。恩格斯指出：“一门科学提出的每一种新见解都包含这门科学的术语的革命。”原创性、标识性概念，是一种理论或学说区别于其他理论或学说的独特的、创造性的思维形式。这种独特性和创造性的一个重要体现是“术语的革命”。以原创性、标识性概念推进理论创新，是推动党的理论创新的重要方式。“人口高质量发展”概念的提出，在人口理论和学术史上具有重大的原创性、标识性意义，推动了人口理论发展“术语的革命”。

Reviewing the development process of population theory, Marx put forward concepts such as “population reproduction” and “relative surplus population.” Our Party has always attached great importance to theoretical innovation in population, proposing concepts such as “population development” and “eugenics and superior nurture.” [3]3 “Eugenics and superior nurture” (优生优育) is a standard Chinese term for policies and practices promoting healthy births and child-rearing. Entering the New Era, General Secretary Xi Jinping, at a symposium of experts in the economic and social fields, called for “promoting the long-term balanced development of the population.” At the first meeting of the 20th Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, he proposed the new concept of “promoting high-quality population development.” While profoundly elucidating this important concept, he put forward concepts such as the “new normal of population development,” “comprehensive demographic dividend,” and “overall population quality,” emphasizing “adhering to promoting high-quality economic and social development with high-quality population development.” Among these, the important concept of high-quality population development plays a leading role. From “population development” to “high-quality population development,” this is a leap in the core concept of population development theory. The “high quality” in high-quality population development is not simply equivalent to high population quality in the traditional demographic sense, but includes new requirements in many aspects such as an appropriate fertility level and population size, a reasonable population structure, higher population quality, and a balanced population distribution. It is a new form of population development that is compatible with the requirements of human development and progress and meets the needs of high-quality economic and social development. For this reason, high-quality population development is an inheritance and development of existing concepts related to population development, reflects the innovation of population development theory, and provides scientific guidance for understanding and solving China’s current population problems. At the same time, high-quality population development, together with high-quality economic and social development, constitutes the conceptual system of high-quality development, deepening the understanding of the laws of high-quality development.

回顾人口理论发展历程，马克思提出了“人口再生产”“相对过剩人口”等概念。我们党高度重视人口理论创新，提出了“人口发展”“优生优育”等概念。进入新时代，习近平总书记在经济社会领域专家座谈会上要求“促进人口长期均衡发展”，在二十届中央财经委员会第一次会议上提出“推动人口高质量发展”的新概念，在对这一重要概念进行深刻阐释时提出“人口发展新常态”“人口综合红利”“人口整体素质”等，强调“坚持以人口高质量发展促进经济社会高质量发展”。其中，人口高质量发展这一重要概念具有统领作用。从“人口发展”到“人口高质量发展”，是人口发展理论核心概念的跃升。人口高质量发展中的“高质量”，不是简单等同于传统人口学意义上的人口素质高，而是包括适度的生育水平和人口规模、合理的人口结构、较高的人口素质、均衡的人口分布等众多方面的新要求，是和人类发展进步要求相适应、满足经济社会高质量发展需求的人口发展新形态。正因如此，人口高质量发展是对已有人口发展相关概念的继承和发展，反映了人口发展理论的创新，为认识和解决当前我国人口问题提供了科学指引。同时，人口高质量发展与经济社会高质量发展一起，构成了高质量发展的概念体系，深化了对高质量发展的规律性认识。

From a historical logic perspective, high-quality population development is the result of the evolution of population development, reflecting the unity of the historical laws of population development and historical consciousness. The history of world population development shows that transitioning from high birth rates, high death rates, and high growth to low birth rates, low death rates, and low growth is a basic law of population development. In this process, the contribution of population quantity to economic growth will gradually weaken, while the supporting role of factors such as the improvement of population quality and the optimization of population distribution for economic development will increasingly strengthen. In this regard, various countries have had many experiences and lessons. For example, in some countries, the fruits of economic growth were diluted by excessively rapid population growth; in others, due to insufficient investment in education, health, and other fields, they fell into the middle-income trap or even the low-income trap. After the founding of New China, under the historical conditions of a large population and a weak foundation, we actively carried out population regulation. With the improvement of the level of economic and social development, China’s population development has shown trend characteristics of fewer children, an aging population, and regional differentiation in population increase and decrease. In response, General Secretary Xi Jinping called for “understanding, adapting to, and leading the new normal of population development.” Currently, China’s economy is at a major juncture of climbing a steep slope and overcoming difficulties in high-quality development, and the driving force of factor inputs such as capital and labor for economic growth is weakening. Promoting high-quality economic and social development with high-quality population development and striving to improve the overall quality of the population is not only a historical necessity of population development but also a historical consciousness based on absorbing and drawing lessons from world population development experiences.

从历史逻辑看，人口高质量发展是人口发展演进的结果，反映了人口发展的历史规律与历史自觉的统一。世界人口发展史表明，从高出生、高死亡、高增长到低出生、低死亡、低增长，是人口发展的一个基本规律。在这个过程中，人口数量对经济增长的贡献将逐步减弱，人口质量提升和人口分布优化等因素对经济发展的支撑作用将日益增强。在这方面，各国有不少经验和教训。例如，有的国家经济增长成果被人口过快增长稀释，有的国家由于在教育、健康等领域投资不足而落入中等收入陷阱甚至低收入陷阱。新中国成立后，在人口多、底子薄的历史条件下，我们主动进行人口调节。随着经济社会发展水平提高，我国人口发展呈现少子化、老龄化、区域人口增减分化的趋势性特征。对此，习近平总书记要求“认识、适应、引领人口发展新常态”。当前，我国经济正处于高质量发展爬坡过坎的重大关口，资本、劳动力等要素投入对经济增长的驱动力减弱。以人口高质量发展推动经济社会高质量发展，着力提高人口整体素质，既是人口发展的历史必然，也是在吸收借鉴世界人口发展经验教训基础上的历史自觉。

From a theoretical logic perspective, high-quality population development is a response to the major issues of population development in the era, laying the cornerstone of the theoretical system of population with Chinese characteristics. The population issue has always accompanied the process of human social development. Marxism insists on observing population phenomena from the contradictory movement of productive forces and relations of production, and the economic base and superstructure, analyzing the relationship between population reproduction and the reproduction of material means. After the founding of New China, our Party adhered to the basic positions and viewpoints of Marxist population theory and explored the mode of population development under socialist conditions. Under the new historical conditions, General Secretary Xi Jinping, applying Marxist population theory, analyzed the new trends, new characteristics, and new problems emerging in China’s population development, and called for “building a theoretical system of population with Chinese characteristics.” The proposal of the concept of high-quality population development conforms to the requirements of the times, grasps the laws of population development, scientifically answers a series of major questions of population development in the New Era from the strategic height of advancing and expanding Chinese-path modernization, enriches and develops Marxist population theory, and lays the cornerstone of the theoretical system of population with Chinese characteristics.

从理论逻辑看，人口高质量发展是对人口发展重大问题的时代回应，奠定了中国特色人口理论体系的基石。人口问题始终伴随人类社会发展进程。马克思主义坚持从生产力和生产关系、经济基础和上层建筑的矛盾运动中观察人口现象，分析了人口再生产和物质资料再生产的关系。新中国成立后，我们党坚持马克思主义人口理论的基本立场和观点，探索社会主义条件下的人口发展方式。在新的历史条件下，习近平总书记运用马克思主义人口理论，分析我国人口发展出现的新趋势、呈现的新特征、面临的新问题，并要求“构建中国特色人口理论体系”。人口高质量发展概念的提出，顺应时代要求，把握人口发展规律，从推进和拓展中国式现代化的战略高度，科学回答了新时代人口发展的一系列重大问题，丰富和发展了马克思主义人口理论，奠定了中国特色人口理论体系的基石。

From a practical logic perspective, high-quality population development embodies the people-centered development thought and manifests the value orientation of Chinese-path modernization. The people are the creators of history, and the essence of modernization is the modernization of people. Although the modernization process of Western developed countries started earlier and reached a higher level of development, their dominance by the logic of capital and external expansion and plunder have led to a series of contradictions and conflicts. Today, an important reason for the frequent contradictions and social rifts in Western developed countries is their inability to curb the greedy nature of capital and to solve chronic ills such as the expansion of materialism and spiritual impoverishment. Chinese-path modernization adheres to the people-centered development thought, insists on taking the realization of the people’s aspiration for a better life as the starting point and落脚点 [4]4 落脚点 (luòjiǎo diǎn) literally means “foothold” or “point of landing”; in political discourse it is often translated as “ultimate goal” or “end result.” Here it is rendered as “落脚点” in parentheses following the English to preserve the author’s original phrasing. of modernization, safeguards the fundamental interests of the people, improves people’s wellbeing, strives to maintain and promote social fairness and justice, and strives to promote common prosperity for all people. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: “To do a good job in population work in the New Era, we must conform to the people’s expectations for a better life and adhere to the principal position of the people.” Adhering to the people-centered development thought, promoting high-quality population development, making the fruits of modernization benefit all people more and more fairly, and achieving greater breakthroughs in promoting the creation of a high-quality life not only provide important support for advancing and expanding Chinese-path modernization but also constitute an important goal of Chinese-path modernization, manifesting the value orientation of Chinese-path modernization.

从实践逻辑看，人口高质量发展体现了以人民为中心的发展思想，彰显了中国式现代化的价值取向。人民是历史的创造者，现代化的本质是人的现代化。虽然西方发达国家的现代化进程开启时间较早、发展程度较高，但其以资本逻辑为主导、对外扩张掠夺等，导致一系列矛盾和冲突。今天，西方发达国家出现矛盾频发、社会撕裂等现象，一个重要原因就是无法遏制资本贪婪的本性，无法解决物质主义膨胀、精神贫乏等痼疾。中国式现代化坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，坚持把实现人民对美好生活的向往作为现代化建设的出发点和落脚点，维护人民根本利益，增进民生福祉，着力维护和促进社会公平正义，着力促进全体人民共同富裕。习近平总书记指出：“做好新时代人口工作，要顺应人民群众对美好生活的期待，坚持人民主体地位”。坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，推动人口高质量发展，让现代化建设成果更多更公平惠及全体人民，在推动创造高品质生活上实现更大突破，既为推进和拓展中国式现代化提供了重要支撑，又是中国式现代化的重要目标，彰显了中国式现代化的价值取向。

Profoundly Answering the Major Theoretical and Practical Questions of Population Development on the New Journey of the New Era

深刻回答新时代新征程人口发展的重大理论和实践问题

General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important discourse on high-quality population development systematically addresses major theoretical and practical issues concerning the relationship between population development in the New Era and economic construction, political construction, cultural-ethical progress, social construction, and ecological civilization construction, integrating history and reality, theory and practice, and domestic and international perspectives. It embodies the Party’s new understanding of the interrelationship between population and the economy, society, resources, and the environment, preliminarily constructs a theoretical system of population with Chinese characteristics, establishes the overarching logic and grand strategy for population development under new historical conditions, and provides scientific guidance for high-quality population development. Since the beginning of the New Era, guided by Xi Jinping’s important discourse on high-quality population development, China’s population quality has further improved, high-quality population development has been steadily advanced, and this has provided solid demographic support for high-quality economic and social development.

习近平总书记关于人口高质量发展的重要论述，从历史和现实、理论和实践、国内和国际等的结合上，系统回答了新时代人口发展与经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设和生态文明建设的关系等重大理论和实践问题，体现了我们党关于人口与经济社会、资源环境相互关系的新认识，初步构建了中国特色人口理论体系，奠定了新的历史条件下人口发展的大逻辑和大方略，为人口高质量发展提供了科学指引。新时代以来，在习近平总书记关于人口高质量发展的重要论述指引下，我国人口素质进一步提升，人口高质量发展持续推进，为经济社会高质量发展提供了坚实的人口支撑。

Regarding the relationship between population development and the building of a strong country and national rejuvenation, the strategic significance of population development has been clarified, enriching and developing the theory of world modernization. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: “Population development is a major matter concerning the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and “In the foreseeable future, the basic national condition of a large population will not fundamentally change.” Productive forces are the fundamental driving force of human social development and the ultimate cause of all social changes and political transformations; human beings are the most active factor among the productive forces, and talent is the primary resource. Since its founding, our Party has always attached great importance to population issues, continuously deepened its understanding of the laws of population development, and recognized the importance of population development from the perspective of socialist modernization, thereby elevating the historical depth and strategic height of understanding population issues. Looking back at the process of world modernization, no more than 30 countries and regions, with a population of no more than 1 billion, have achieved modernization. Chinese-path modernization is the modernization of a huge population; our country’s more than 1.4 billion people are to enter a modern society as a whole, a scale exceeding the total population of existing developed countries. There is no precedent for this in human history, and its difficulty and complexity are unprecedented. It should be recognized that the strength of the masses is inexhaustible, and the wisdom of the masses is boundless. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: “China has a population of more than 1.4 billion; when the strength and wisdom of hundreds of millions of people are combined, who can match it?” By promoting high-quality population development and adhering to development for the people, by the people, and with the fruits of development shared by the people, we can gather the mighty force to comprehensively advance the building of a strong country and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through Chinese-path modernization.

在人口发展与强国建设、民族复兴的关系上，明确了人口发展的战略意义，丰富发展了世界现代化理论。习近平总书记指出：“人口发展是关系中华民族伟大复兴的大事”“在未来相当长时期内，我国人口众多的基本国情不会根本改变”。生产力是人类社会发展的根本动力，也是一切社会变迁和政治变革的终极原因；人是生产力中最活跃的因素，人才是第一资源。我们党自成立以来，始终高度重视人口问题，不断深化对人口发展规律的认识，并从社会主义现代化建设的高度认识人口发展的重要性，提升了认识人口问题的历史纵深和战略高度。回顾世界现代化进程，实现现代化的国家和地区不超过30个、人口不超过10亿。中国式现代化是人口规模巨大的现代化，我国14亿多人口要整体迈入现代化社会，其规模超过现有发达国家的总和。这在人类历史上没有先例可循，艰巨性和复杂性前所未有。应当认识到，人民群众的力量是无穷的，人民群众的智慧是无穷的。习近平总书记指出：“中国有14亿多人口，亿万人民的力量和智慧加在一起，谁能比得过？”推动人口高质量发展，坚持发展为了人民、发展依靠人民、发展成果由人民共享，就能汇聚起以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业的磅礴力量。

Regarding the relationship between population development and economic and social development, the emphasis on the close integration of “investment in things” and “investment in people” enriches and develops the Marxist theory of social reproduction. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that in doing population work well in the New Era, we must “promote high-quality economic and social development through high-quality population development,” “respond to the people’s aspirations for a better life, uphold the principal position of the people, closely combine high-quality population development with the people’s high-quality life, and closely combine ‘investment in things’ with ‘investment in people.’” Marxism divides social reproduction into population reproduction and material reproduction, that is, the two aspects of population development and economic and social development. In a broad sense, population development can be classified within the category of economic and social development. At the same time, population development has its particularities. Closely combining “investment in things” with “investment in people” and closely combining high-quality population development with the people’s high-quality life not only emphasizes the inherent unity and interaction between population reproduction and material reproduction but also stresses the importance of “investment in people,” fully reflecting that people are the fundamental purpose of development. Promoting high-quality population development, improving the long-term mechanism for investing in people, and expanding effective investment covering the entire population and the whole life cycle can cultivate new economic growth points while improving people’s well-being. This will provide basic and strategic support for high-quality development while promoting the all-round development of individuals and comprehensive social progress, thereby enriching and developing the Marxist theory of social reproduction.

在人口发展与经济社会发展的关系上，强调“投资于物”同“投资于人”紧密结合，丰富和发展了马克思主义社会再生产理论。习近平总书记指出，做好新时代人口工作要“以人口高质量发展促进经济社会高质量发展”“要顺应人民群众对美好生活的期待，坚持人民主体地位，把人口高质量发展同人民高品质生活紧密结合起来，把‘投资于物’同‘投资于人’紧密结合起来”。马克思主义将社会再生产分为人口再生产和物质资料再生产，也就是人口发展和经济社会发展两个方面。从广义上说，人口发展可以归为经济社会发展的范畴。同时，人口发展有其特殊性。把“投资于物”同“投资于人”紧密结合起来，把人口高质量发展同人民高品质生活紧密结合起来，既强调了人口再生产和物质资料再生产内在统一、相互作用，又强调“投资于人”的重要性，充分体现了人是发展的根本目的。推动人口高质量发展，健全投资于人的长效机制，扩大覆盖全人群、全生命周期的有效投资，能够在增进民生福祉中培育新的经济增长点，将在为高质量发展提供基础性、战略性支撑的同时，推动实现人的全面发展和社会全面进步，丰富和发展了马克思主义社会再生产理论。

Regarding the relationship between population development and ecological civilization construction, it is proposed that Chinese-path modernization is the modernization of harmony between humanity and nature, enriching and developing the understanding of the relationship between population and resources and the environment. General Secretary Xi Jinping has emphasized: “We must, following the principle of balance between population, resources, and the environment and the unity of economic, social, and ecological benefits, plan the development of territorial space as a whole, scientifically arrange production space, living space, and ecological space, and leave more room for nature to restore itself.” The complex and close relationship between population and the economy, society, resources, and the environment is an important topic in the history of population thought. Population size, structure, quality, and distribution have long-term impacts on economic and social development and changes in resources and the environment; economic and social development and changes in resources and the environment also alter human living conditions, exerting positive or negative effects on population development. Strengthening ecological civilization construction in the world’s largest developing country and advancing the modernization of harmony between humanity and nature will have global implications. The new changes and trends in China’s population development require us to pay more attention to their impact on resources and the environment in the course of development and to strengthen overall coordination. At the same time, the people’s demand for a beautiful ecological environment is increasing; China’s population and the carrying capacity of its resources and environment remain in a state of tight balance; and contradictions between population and development are still relatively prominent in areas that have been lifted out of poverty, as well as in some ecologically fragile and resource-scarce regions. Only by promoting high-quality population development, better coordinating the relationship between population and resources and the environment, considering the impact of population peaking and distribution changes to optimize infrastructure layout, improving the regional economic layout and territorial space system, and strengthening ecological protection and restoration can we better build a beautiful China and achieve sustainable development.

在人口发展与生态文明建设的关系上，提出中国式现代化是人与自然和谐共生的现代化，丰富和发展了对人口与资源环境关系的认识。习近平总书记强调：“要按照人口资源环境相均衡、经济社会生态效益相统一的原则，整体谋划国土空间开发，科学布局生产空间、生活空间、生态空间，给自然留下更多修复空间。”人口与经济社会、资源环境的复杂紧密关系，是人口思想史上的重要议题之一。人口数量、结构、质量以及分布等，会对经济社会发展、资源环境变化带来长期影响；经济社会发展和资源环境变化也会改变人类的生存条件，对人口发展产生积极或消极影响。在我们这个世界最大的发展中国家加强生态文明建设，推进人与自然和谐共生的现代化，其影响将是世界性的。我国人口发展出现的新变化新趋势，要求我们在发展中更加注重其对资源环境带来的影响，加强统筹协调。同时，人民群众对优美生态环境的需要越来越高，我国人口与资源环境承载力仍然处于紧平衡状态，脱贫地区以及一些生态脆弱、资源匮乏地区人口与发展之间的矛盾仍然比较突出。推动人口高质量发展，更好统筹人口与资源环境的关系，考虑人口达峰和分布变化的影响加强基础设施布局，优化区域经济布局和国土空间体系，加强生态保护修复，才能更好建设美丽中国，实现可持续发展。

Regarding the relationship between population development and opening up to the outside world, building a strong domestic market endows high-quality population development with distinct global significance. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: “As China’s more than 1.4 billion people enter modernization as a whole, China will inevitably make a greater contribution to the world economy and provide greater space for the business communities of all countries” and “The consumption upgrade demand and industrial transformation potential of China’s more than 1.4 billion people will

在人口发展与对外开放的关系上，建设强大国内市场，赋予人口高质量发展鲜明的世界意义。习近平总书记指出：“随着中国14亿多人口整体迈进现代化，中国必将对世界经济作出更大贡献，为各国工商界提供更大空间”“中国14亿多人口的消费升级需求和产业转型潜力，将为世界经济提供强劲动力”。改革开放以来，我国众多人口形成的巨大市场为世界经济增长作出了重大贡献。当前，世界百年未有之大变局加速演进，全球经济增长乏力，市场需求成为全球竞争最稀缺资源。我国有14亿多人口所形成的超大规模市场优势。充分利用和发挥这个优势，不断巩固和增强这个优势，能够为构建新发展格局提供雄厚支撑、为世界经济增长提供新的动力。根据我国经济发展实际情况，推动人口高质量发展，建立起扩大内需的有效制度、加快培育完整内需体系等，扩大居民消费，提升消费层次，将在更好满足人民美好生活需要的同时，使建设超大规模的国内市场成为一个可持续的历史过程，更好为推动世界经济增长、增进各国人民福祉贡献力量。

On the relationship between population development and national security, population security is incorporated into the overall national security framework, clarifying the bottom-line requirements for high-quality population development. General Secretary Xi Jinping has stressed: “Population security is the bottom-line requirement for high-quality population development. The rise and fall of great powers are often profoundly influenced by demographic conditions, and population security must be incorporated into the overall national security framework for planning.” Population security is not only a direct manifestation of the holistic approach to national security in the demographic sphere, but also has far-reaching implications for political security, national defense security, economic and social security, and cultural and ideological security. This requires us to strengthen our awareness of risks, fully implement the holistic approach to national security in population development strategies, pay attention to grasping the interrelationships among various demographic factors, as well as between population and external factors such as the economy, society, resources, and the environment, and strengthen forward-looking planning and strategic forecasting. To promote high-quality population development, we must assess development trends for the next 5, 15, and even 30 years, including China’s population aging, increases in average life expectancy, rising years of education, and changes in the labor force structure, and take early precautions and comprehensive responses to potential security issues within the population system and security challenges between systems, continuously improving the foresight and initiative of our work, taking measures before problems arise, and consolidating the foundation of population security.

在人口发展与国家安全的关系上，将人口安全纳入总体国家安全范畴，明确了人口高质量发展的底线要求。习近平总书记强调：“人口安全是人口高质量发展的底线要求，大国兴衰往往受到人口状况的深刻影响，要将人口安全纳入总体国家安全范畴加以谋划。”人口安全不仅是总体国家安全观在人口领域的直接体现，而且对政治安全、国防安全、经济社会安全、文化和意识形态安全等都具有深远的影响。这要求我们增强风险意识，在人口发展战略中全面贯彻总体国家安全观，重视把握人口各要素之间，以及人口与经济社会、资源环境等外部要素间的相互关系，加强超前谋划和战略预判。促进人口高质量发展，研判未来5年、15年乃至30年我国人口老龄化、人均预期寿命提升、受教育年限增加、劳动力结构变化等发展趋势，提早防范和综合应对潜在的人口系统内安全问题和系统间的安全挑战，不断提高工作预见性和主动性，未雨绸缪采取应对措施，夯实人口安全的基础。

On the relationship between the history and future of population development, we adhere to dialectical materialism and scientifically grasp the continuity and phasing of population policies. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: “Our implementation of family planning was a major decision made based on the actual national conditions of a specific historical period” and “the correctness and effectiveness of the family planning policy must be fully affirmed.” Population policies fall within the categories of social consciousness and the superstructure, and need to change as the social being or economic base changes. If population policies under different historical conditions are separated and viewed in isolation for a certain stage or period, it is impossible to fully understand the historical logic behind the continuity and phasing of China’s population policies. Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, in response to new changes in population growth and population structure, our Party, on the basis of scientific assessment, has assessed the situation and made major decisions and deployments to gradually adjust and improve the fertility policy, implemented a national strategy to actively respond to population aging, and promoted the long-term balanced development of the population. At the same time, our Party attaches importance to the role of family culture in promoting population development, proposing to “actively cultivate a new culture of marriage and childbearing, and strengthen guidance for young people on views of love, marriage, fertility, and family,” thereby enhancing the intrinsic capacity of families to maintain cultural genetic stability and achieve creative transformation when responding to changes in the external environment, injecting cultural strength into high-quality population development.

在人口发展的历史和未来关系上，坚持辩证唯物主义，科学把握人口政策的连续性和阶段性。习近平总书记指出：“我们推行计划生育，是根据特定历史阶段的现实国情作出的重大决策”“要充分肯定计划生育政策的正确性和有效性”。人口政策属于社会意识和上层建筑的范畴，需要随着社会存在或经济基础变化而变化。如果将不同历史条件下的人口政策割裂开来，孤立地看某个阶段、某个时期的人口政策，就无法全面认识我国人口政策的连续性和阶段性背后的历史逻辑。党的十八大以来，针对人口增长和人口结构出现的新变化，我们党在科学研判的基础上，审时度势作出逐步调整完善生育政策的重大决策部署，实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略，促进人口长期均衡发展。同时，我们党重视发挥家庭文化对于人口发展的促进作用，提出“积极培育新型婚育文化，加强对年轻人婚恋观、生育观、家庭观的引导”等，提升家庭在应对外部环境变迁时保持文化基因稳定性并实现创造性转化的内在能力，为人口高质量发展注入文化力量。

Promoting mutual adaptation between population development and economic and social development, and achieving high-quality development simultaneously

促进人口发展和经济社会发展相互适应、同步实现高质量发展

General Secretary Xi Jinping has stressed: “The impact of population decline on economic and social development has both advantages and disadvantages; we cannot look at only one side. Some issues must be viewed over the long term, and we should not jump to conclusions hastily. We must oppose both ‘population determinism’ and ‘population irrelevance,’ and make good use of favorable factors while avoiding harmful ones.” In recent years, as China has generally shifted from a stage of incremental population growth to a stage of decline, some erroneous views have emerged that China’s demographic dividend has disappeared, and some have even concocted a so-called “China population collapse theory” to talk down China’s economic growth prospects. These must be objectively analyzed and distinguished.

习近平总书记强调：“人口减少对经济社会发展影响利弊兼有，不能只看一面，有些问题要长期看，不能急于下结论，既要反对‘人口决定论’，又要反对‘人口无关论’，趋利避害做好工作。”近年来，随着我国总体上已由人口增量发展转向减量发展阶段，出现了一些认为我国人口红利消失的错误观点，甚至有人炮制所谓的“中国人口崩溃论”，唱衰中国经济增长前景。对此必须进行客观辨析。

The demographic dividend is not only related to population size and structure, but is even more closely linked to population quality, economic policies, and supporting measures. China’s current population and labor force size are sufficiently large; the current scale of population decline is limited; the education level of the entire population continues to rise; and the comprehensive demographic dividend still has clear advantages. Population decline will bring some adverse effects on development, such as a reduction in the labor force and weakened momentum for consumption and investment. At the same time, however, population decline also has some positive effects, such as forcing economic development to shift from extensive expansion to intensive development. Overall, to deeply understand and grasp General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important discourse on high-quality population development, we must dialectically view the impact of population decline, implement the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC [5]5 The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC was held in July 2024, focusing on further deepening reform and advancing Chinese modernization., and guide the situation to promote mutual adaptation between population development and economic and social development, achieving high-quality development simultaneously.

人口红利不仅与人口数量和结构有关，更与人口素质、经济政策及配套措施有关。我国现有人口和劳动力规模足够庞大，目前人口减少的体量有限，全民受教育水平持续提高，人口综合红利仍然具有明显优势。人口减少会对发展带来一些不利影响，比如劳动力减少、消费投资动能减弱。但与此同时，人口减少也有一些正面效应，比如倒逼经济发展从外延式扩张转向内涵式发展等。总的来看，深刻理解和把握习近平总书记关于人口高质量发展的重要论述，要辩证看待人口减少带来的影响，把党的二十届四中全会精神落到实处，因势利导促进人口发展和经济社会发展相互适应、同步实现高质量发展。

Upholding the Party’s overall leadership over population work in the New Era. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: “Governing a country with the world’s largest population for a long time, with a long history, a huge population, and a large scale, has both the enormous advantage of accomplishing major tasks and building great undertakings, and also faces special difficulties in governing the Party and the country.” Promoting high-quality population development is a complex systemic project; it is necessary to uphold the Party’s overall leadership, especially the centralized, unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, ensuring that the Party always commands the overall situation and coordinates all parties. On the basis of actively understanding, adapting to, and leading the new normal of population development, we must strengthen top-level design and coordinated advancement, establish and improve leadership and coordination mechanisms for promoting high-quality population development, and provide a fundamental guarantee for promoting high-quality population development. At the same time, we must do a good job of publicity and guidance, creating a favorable atmosphere for actively responding to the population issues encountered on the road ahead.

坚持党对新时代人口工作的全面领导。习近平总书记指出：“在世界上人口最多的国家长期执政，历史久、人数多、规模大，既有办大事、建伟业的巨大优势，也面临治党治国的特殊难题。”促进人口高质量发展是一项复杂的系统工程，必须坚持党的全面领导特别是党中央集中统一领导，确保党始终总揽全局、协调各方。要在主动认识、适应、引领人口发展新常态的基础上，强化顶层设计、协同推进，建立健全推动人口高质量发展的领导协调机制，为推动人口高质量发展提供根本保证。同时，做好宣传引导，为积极应对前进道路上遇到的人口问题营造良好氛围。

Adhering to a people-centered development philosophy. Population work concerns individual development, family happiness, and the future of the nation. Only by adhering to a people-centered development philosophy, respecting population laws, improving service guarantee policies, and promoting joint participation and shared development can we continuously enhance the people’s sense of gain and happiness. To this end, we must start by solving the most immediate, most direct, and most practical problems of concern to the people, adhere to doing our best according to our capabilities, and ensure and improve people’s livelihoods through development. We must improve the basic public service system, strengthen inclusive, foundational, and safety-net livelihood construction, improve the social security system, improve the health promotion policy and system, and while continuously meeting the people’s aspirations for a better life, promote the optimization of the population structure, the continuous improvement of the overall quality of the population, the rational distribution of modern human resources, and the long-term balanced development of the population.

坚持以人民为中心的发展思想。人口工作事关个人发展、家庭幸福和民族未来。只有坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，尊重人口规律，完善服务保障政策，促进共同参与、共享发展，才能不断增强人民群众获得感和幸福感。为此，必须从解决人民群众最关心、最直接、最现实的利益问题入手，坚持尽力而为、量力而行，在发展中保障和改善民生。完善基本公共服务制度体系，加强普惠性、基础性、兜底性民生建设，健全社会保障体系，健全健康促进政策制度体系，在不断满足人民对美好生活向往的同时，推动人口结构优化、人口整体素质不断提升、现代化人力资源分布合理、人口长期均衡发展。

Grasping the principal contradiction. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: “In recent years, China’s population development has seen some significant changes, facing both the pressure of a large population and the challenges brought by population structure transformation.” This is mainly reflected in the fact that China’s population development is not yet fully compatible with the requirements of economic and social development. On the one hand, aging and declining birth rates are basic laws of population development, and their overall trend is difficult to change. On the other hand, while China’s high-quality population development has achieved important results, there is still a gap compared with developed countries and with the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life. For example, there is insufficient supply of high-quality population services covering the entire population, the entire process, and the entire life cycle; there are still shortcomings and weaknesses in services for the elderly and young children; and there are still differences in the level of population development between urban and rural areas and between regions. To this end, we must promote the shift of population work from mainly regulating quantity to improving quality, stabilizing the total, optimizing the structure, and smoothing mobility. We must improve the population service system covering the entire population and the entire life cycle, advocate a positive view of marriage and childbearing, comprehensively improve the overall quality of the population, and build high-quality human resources through high-quality population development. In particular, we must enhance the service capacity for the elderly and young children, improve the policy mechanism for the coordinated development of the elderly care industry and undertakings, optimize the supply of basic elderly care services, and improve the urban and rural elderly care service network; optimize fertility support policies and incentive measures, improve the maternity insurance system, and develop inclusive childcare and integrated childcare and kindergarten services.

抓住主要矛盾。习近平总书记指出：“近年来，我国人口发展出现了一些显著变化，既面临人口众多的压力，又面临人口结构转变带来的挑战。”这主要体现在我国人口发展与经济社会发展要求还不相适应。一方面，老龄化、少子化是人口发展的基本规律，其总体趋势难以改变。另一方面，我国人口高质量发展在取得重要成绩的同时，与发达国家相比、与人民日益增长的美好生活需要相比还有差距。比如，全人群、全过程、全生命周期的高质量人口服务供给不足，在“一老一小”服务上仍然存在短板弱项，城乡之间、区域之间的人口发展水平还存在差异，等等。为此，必须推动人口工作由调节数量为主向提升素质、稳定总量、优化结构、畅通流动转变。健全覆盖全人群、全生命周期的人口服务体系，倡导积极婚育观，全面提高人口综合素质，以人口高质量发展打造高素质人力资源。特别是要提升“一老一小”服务能力，健全养老事业和产业协同发展政策机制，优化基本养老服务供给，完善城乡养老服务网络；优化生育支持政策和激励措施，完善生育保险制度，发展普惠托育和托幼一体化服务。

Adhere to a systems perspective. Population development and economic-social development are organically unified. Only by adhering to a systems perspective, earnestly integrating population into economic and social policies, and fully considering demographic factors in major decisions such as economic and social development strategic plans, strategic adjustment of economic structure, investment projects and the layout of productive forces, coordination of urban-rural regional relations, and sustainable development, can we continuously enhance the adaptability of economic and social development to population development. To this end, it is necessary to firmly establish a “grand population perspective,” deeply study and judge the complex impacts of population changes on economic and social development, and promote a systemic integration effect between population and policies on finance, currency, employment, industry, investment, consumption, ecology, regions, and so forth. For example, in industrial development, build a modern industrial system in line with the new trends of demographic transition; in integrated urban-rural development, follow population mobility trends to promote the integration of urban and rural industrial development, infrastructure, and public services. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen population statistics and dynamic monitoring and early warning, establish and improve mechanisms for evaluating the population and fertility impact of major decisions, and use a systems perspective to comprehensively plan responses to population development and security issues.

坚持系统观念。人口发展和经济社会发展是有机统一的。坚持系统观念，切实将人口融入经济社会政策，在经济社会发展战略规划计划、经济结构战略性调整、投资项目和生产力布局、城乡区域关系协调、可持续发展等重大决策中充分考虑人口因素，才能不断增强经济社会发展对人口发展的适应性。为此，要牢固树立“大人口观”，深入研判人口变化对经济社会发展的复杂影响，推动人口与财政、货币、就业、产业、投资、消费、生态、区域等政策形成系统集成效应。比如，在产业发展方面，顺应人口转变新趋势建设现代化产业体系；在城乡融合发展方面，顺应人口流动趋势促进城乡产业发展、基础设施、公共服务一体化。同时，要加强人口统计与动态监测预警，建立健全重大决策人口和生育影响评价机制，以系统观念统筹谋划应对人口发展和安全问题。

Adhere to reform and innovation. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: “Promote high-quality population development through reform and innovation.” Deepening reforms in key areas and critical links based on the actual changes in China’s population development, and accelerating the formation of ideological concepts, policies and regulations, institutional mechanisms, and public policy systems conducive to high-quality population development, will help provide impetus and support for high-quality population development. To this end, it is necessary to fully recognize the complexity and difficulty of population work in the New Era, focus on removing institutional obstacles, deepen reform and innovation in education and health services, actively promote the improvement and optimization of relevant laws, regulations, and policy systems, and strengthen the legal guarantee for population development. At the same time, pay attention to strengthening the systemic integration, synergy, and efficiency of reform measures, enhance the fairness and accessibility of institutional arrangements, improve the systematic nature, holism, and coordination of policies, and continuously promote the comprehensive development of individuals and common prosperity for all people in the process of advancing high-quality population development.

坚持改革创新。习近平总书记强调：“坚持以改革创新推动人口高质量发展。”立足我国人口发展变化的实际深化重点领域和关键环节改革，加快形成有利于人口高质量发展的思想观念、政策法规、体制机制和公共政策体系，有利于为人口高质量发展提供动力和支撑。为此，要充分认识新时代人口工作的复杂性艰巨性，着力破除体制机制障碍，深化教育卫生事业改革创新，积极推进相关法律法规和政策体系的健全与优化，强化人口发展的法治保障。同时，注重加强改革举措的系统集成、协同高效，增强制度安排的公平性与可及性，提高政策的系统性、整体性、协同性，在推动人口高质量发展进程中不断促进人的全面发展和全体人民共同富裕。

(The authors are respectively Director of the China Population and Development Research Center and Distinguished Researcher of the Beijing Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era Research Center)

（作者分别为中国人口与发展研究中心主任、北京市习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心特约研究员）

Online Editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧