“The Theoretical Connotation and Practical Requirements of ‘Extreme Thinking’”

Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, General Secretary Xi Jinping has discussed and emphasized “extreme thinking” on

党的十八大以来，习近平总书记在多个重要场合论述和强调“极限思维”。2023年5月，习近平总书记在二十届中央国家安全委员会第一次会议上强调：“要坚持底线思维和极限思维，准备经受风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验。”2026年4月，习近平总书记在主持中共中央政治局第二十五次集体学习时强调：“要树牢底线思维、极限思维，不断提升大灾巨灾应对处置能力。”所谓极限思维，是指在思考问题时，有意将事物发展的某些变量推向极大或极小的极端状态，并以此为基础进行推演，从而把握其可能的发展趋势，为决策提供参照。这种思维方法注重在假设的最坏结果、最复杂情况、最困厄状态下做最充分思考与最万全准备，属于底线思维的“底线”，有助于我们超越常规判断，识别潜在的风险与机遇。“极限思维”的提出具有厚实的理论支撑、深远的历史文化基础和深刻的现实背景，是在综合把握历史文化发展特点和规律的前提下对中华优秀传统文化的传承弘扬，是在清醒认识和准确把握国内外发展形势变化基础上对底线思维的丰富发展，是对我们党在各个历史时期应对各种风险挑战所坚持的思维方法与战略艺术的开拓创新。

1 Grasping the Threefold Implication of Extreme Thinking

1 把握极限思维的三重意蕴

Extreme thinking both originates from the philosophical wisdom of Marxism and manifests the profound foundation of fine traditional Chinese culture. It has been continuously enriched and deepened through the long-term practice of the Chinese Communist Party in governing the country, gradually crystallizing into a mode of thinking and practical character unique to Chinese Communists.

极限思维既源自于马克思主义哲学智慧，又彰显中华优秀传统文化深厚底蕴，并在中国共产党治国理政的长期实践中不断丰富深化，逐步凝结为中国共产党人特有的思维方式与实践品格。

Embodying the philosophical wisdom of Marxism. Extreme thinking is a conscious adherence to and flexible application of the method of contradiction analysis. First, extreme thinking requires us to establish a strong problem consciousness. The existence of a problem implies the existence of a contradiction. Extreme thinking is a mode of thinking formed by applying the method of contradiction analysis to China’s specific reality. It requires us to take discovering problems as the starting point for resolving contradictions and to take resolving contradictions as the breakthrough point for advancing work. Second, extreme thinking requires us to “plan for the worst, make the fullest preparations, and strive for a better outcome.” [1]1 Xi Jinping, “Speech at the National Conference on Propaganda and Ideological Work” (August 19, 2013). At present, China’s development has entered a period in which strategic opportunities and risk challenges coexist, and uncertain and unpredictable factors increase. “We must adhere to the ‘two-point theory,’ [2]2 “Two-point theory” refers to the dialectical materialist method of viewing things as comprising two contradictory aspects, requiring a comprehensive rather than one-sided analysis. looking at problems from two sides. We must see not only the favorable aspects of the international and domestic situation but also the unfavorable aspects.” [3]3 Xi Jinping, “Speech at the Central Economic Work Conference” (December 10, 2013). We must both enhance our early-warning capacity regarding unfavorable conditions and negative factors and be adept at finding a way out and opening up new paths. Third, extreme thinking requires us to follow the law of the transformation of quantity into quality. The extreme is the limit of the “measure” at which quantitative change in a thing occurs. Once it is breached, it signifies a qualitative change, and unpredictable results may appear. Adhering to extreme thinking requires both accurately recognizing change, scientifically responding to change, and proactively seeking change, keeping “measure” within the extreme threshold; and, when a qualitative change occurs, having sharp eyes, seeing things early, and acting quickly, being adept at turning crises into opportunities and dangers into safety.

体现马克思主义哲学智慧。极限思维是对矛盾分析法的自觉坚持和灵活运用。其一，极限思维要求我们树立强烈的问题意识。有问题就意味着有矛盾，极限思维是将矛盾分析法应用于中国具体实际而形成的思维方式，要求我们把发现问题作为化解矛盾的起始点，把化解矛盾作为推进工作的突破口。其二，极限思维要求我们“从坏处着想，做最充分的准备，争取较好的结果”。当前，我国发展进入战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期。“我们要坚持‘两点论’，一分为二看问题，既要看到国际国内形势中有利的一面，也要看到不利的一面”，既要提高对不利条件和消极因素的预警能力，又要善于找到出路、开辟新路。其三，极限思维要求我们遵循质量互变规律。极限是事物发生量变之“度”的极值，一旦突破就意味着质的变化，可能出现难以预料的结果。坚持极限思维，既要准确识变、科学应变、主动求变，把“度”控制在极限阈值之内；又要在发生质变之时，眼睛亮、见事早、行动快，善于化危为机、化险为夷。

Rooted in fine traditional Chinese culture. Extreme thinking is the creative transformation and innovative development of traditional ideas such as “being vigilant in peace time” and “repairing the house before it rains.” [4]4 “Being vigilant in peace time” (居安思危) and “repairing the house before it rains” (未雨绸缪) are classical Chinese idioms advocating foresight and preparedness. The *Zuo Commentary on the Spring and Autumn Annals*, in the eleventh year of Duke Xiang, records: “The *Book* says: ‘Be vigilant in peace time.’ Being vigilant leads to preparedness; being prepared leads to no trouble.” [5]5 *Zuo Commentary*, Duke Xiang, 11th year. The “Book” cited is the *Book of Documents*. Confucius and Mencius respectively issued the eternal warnings: “The superior man is not at ease even when at peace, does not forget danger even when secure, does not forget chaos even when in order; thus his person is safe and the state can be preserved,” [6]6 *The Book of Changes*, “Appended Remarks, Part Two.” and “Born in sorrow, die in ease and pleasure.” [7]7 *Mencius*, “Gaozi, Part Two.” Chen Shou of the Western Jin Dynasty, in the *Records of the Three Kingdoms, Book of Wu, Biography of Lü Meng*, pointed out the great significance of preventing disaster before it arises with the phrase: “The wise prevent calamity before it sprouts; the prudent plan for trouble in the future.” [8]8 Chen Shou, *Records of the Three Kingdoms*, “Book of Wu, Biography of Lü Meng.” Extreme thinking is deeply aligned with fine traditional Chinese culture in its internal logic and highly consistent in its core concepts. General Secretary Xi Jinping points out: “Only by combining the basic tenets of Marxism with China’s specific realities and with fine traditional Chinese culture, and by adhering to the use of dialectical materialism and historical materialism, can we correctly answer the major questions posed by the times and practice, and can we always maintain the vigorous vitality and strong vitality of Marxism.” [9]9 Xi Jinping, “Speech at the Ceremony Marking the Centenary of the Communist Party of China” (July 1, 2021). Adhering to extreme thinking is the wise crystallization of deeply excavating the rich elements of fine traditional Chinese culture and modernly elucidating its intellectual essence, all on the basis of upholding the soul of Marxism.

植根中华优秀传统文化。极限思维是对“居安思危”“未雨绸缪”等传统思想观念的创造性转化和创新性发展。《左传·襄公十一年》中载，“《书》曰：‘居安思危。’思则有备，有备无患”。孔子和孟子分别作出了“君子安而不忘危，存而不忘亡，治而不忘乱，是以身安而国家可保也”“生于忧患而死于安乐”的千古警示。西晋陈寿在《三国志·吴书·吕蒙传》中以“明者防祸于未萌，智者图患于将来”指明了提前防止祸患的重大意义。极限思维与中华优秀传统文化在内在逻辑上深度契合、在核心理念上高度一致。习近平总书记指出，“只有把马克思主义基本原理同中国具体实际相结合、同中华优秀传统文化相结合，坚持运用辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义，才能正确回答时代和实践提出的重大问题，才能始终保持马克思主义的蓬勃生机和旺盛活力”。坚持极限思维，是在坚守马克思主义魂脉的基础上对中华优秀传统文化的丰富元素进行深入挖掘、对其思维精华进行现代阐发的智慧结晶。

Continuing the Party’s fine traditions. Extreme thinking is the conscious inheritance and active promotion of the Chinese Communists’ sense of urgency. Compared with the holistic and principled characteristics of bottom-line thinking, extreme thinking more prominently highlights the features of initiative and foresight. At the Seventh National Congress of the CPC, Comrade Mao Zedong listed 17 difficulties and proposed: “Many things are unexpected, but they must be thought of. Especially our senior responsible cadres must have this kind of mental preparation, preparing to deal with extraordinary difficulties and extraordinary unfavorable situations.” [10]10 Mao Zedong, “Conclusion of the Report at the Seventh National Congress of the Communist Party of China” (May 31, 1945). After reform and opening up, Comrade Deng Xiaoping pointed out: “We must base our work on the possibility of relatively large risks and prepare countermeasures. That way, even if large risks occur, the sky will not fall.” [11]11 Deng Xiaoping, “We Must Maintain a Stable Political Environment and a Stable Economic Situation” (February 26, 1989). Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC, General Secretary Xi Jinping has emphasized that “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is by no means something that can be achieved easily, by beating drums and gongs,” [12]12 Xi Jinping, “Speech at the Ceremony Marking the Centenary of the Communist Party of China” (July 1, 2021). and requires that “in all matters, prepare for the worst and strive for the best result.” [13]13 Xi Jinping, “Speech at the National Conference on Propaganda and Ideological Work” (August 19, 2013). Extreme thinking demonstrates the historical initiative spirit of generations of Chinese Communists, who constantly cherish “caution and prudence,” [14]14 “Caution and prudence” (兢慎) is a classical expression meaning to be constantly vigilant and careful. always prepare for the emergence of the “worst-case scenario,” and “establish our policies on the basis of the worst possibility.” [15]15 Mao Zedong, “Conclusion of the Report at the Seventh National Congress of the Communist Party of China” (May 31, 1945). Situated in the era of the interweaving, stirring, and mutual influence of the overall strategy for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the changes unseen in a century in the world, it is very necessary for us to establish and adhere to extreme thinking in order to seize the “initiative move” and fight the proactive battle.

赓续党的优良传统。极限思维是对中国共产党人忧患意识的自觉传承和积极弘扬。相较于底线思维的整体性和原则性特征，极限思维更凸显主动性和前瞻性的特点。在党的七大上，毛泽东同志列举了17条困难，提出“许多事情是意料不到的，但是一定要想到，尤其是我们的高级负责干部要有这种精神准备，准备对付非常的困难，对付非常的不利情况”。改革开放后，邓小平同志指出：“我们要把工作的基点放在出现较大的风险上，准备好对策。这样，即使出现了大的风险，天也不会塌下来。”党的十八大以来，习近平总书记强调“中华民族伟大复兴，绝不是轻轻松松、敲锣打鼓就能实现的”，要求“凡事从坏处准备，努力争取最好的结果”。极限思维展现了一代代中国共产党人常怀“兢慎”，时刻防备出现“最坏的情况”，“在最坏的可能性上建立我们的政策”的历史主动精神。置身中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局交织激荡、相互影响的时代背景之中，我们想要下好“先手棋”、打好主动仗，树立和坚持极限思维十分必要。

2 The Realistic Background for Adhering to Extreme Thinking

2 坚持极限思维的现实背景

On the new journey, the dangers of wading through rapids, the hardships of climbing slopes, and the difficulties of breaking through barriers in reform, development, and stability are becoming increasingly prominent. Some major tests, including strong winds, high waves, and even terrifying waves, are coming head-on. Only by adhering to extreme thinking can we stand firm amidst the changing clouds and winds and move forward steadily amidst the terrifying waves. Adhering to extreme thinking is not only a realistic need to respond to new changes in the domestic and international situation but also an inevitable requirement for promoting the positive interaction between high-quality development and high-level security, as well as an important dimension for enhancing the fighting spirit and fighting ability of cadres in the New Era.

新征程上，改革发展稳定涉滩之险、爬坡之艰、闯关之难愈渐突出，一些风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验迎面而来。只有坚持极限思维，方能在风云变幻中站稳脚跟，于惊涛骇浪中稳健前行。坚持极限思维不仅是应对国内国际形势新变化的现实需要，还是推动高质量发展与高水平安全良性互动的必然要求，也是提升新时代干部斗争精神和斗争本领的重要维度。

A realistic need to respond to new changes in the domestic and international situation. Currently, the international situation is treacherous and unpredictable. With the fermentation and prolongation of the impacts of major-power games and regional crises, the confrontation and turmoil between fission and integration, conflict and compromise, bloc confrontation and pluralistic coexistence in the world pattern and international security order are becoming increasingly intense. Domestically, the tasks of reform, development, and stability are arduous and heavy, and the collision and conflict between different ideologies, cultures, and values are intensifying. Outstanding problems existing within the Party, such as impurity in thought, organization, and conduct, have not yet been fundamentally resolved. The situation in the fight against corruption remains severe and complex. The “four tests” [16]16 The “four tests” (四大考验) refer to the tests of governance, reform and opening up, the market economy, and the external environment. and “four dangers” [17]17 The “four dangers” (四种危险) refer to the dangers of mental slackness, incompetence, disengagement from the people, and corruption. facing the Party will exist for a long time. At the same time, political security, territorial security, military security, economic security, cultural security, social security, science and technology security, information security, ecological security, resource security, and nuclear security all face different risks and challenges. We must uphold a sense of urgency as if “a sword is hanging over our heads” and a vigilance as if “treading on thin ice.” [18]18 “A sword is hanging over our heads” (头悬利剑) and “treading on thin ice” (如履薄冰) are classical Chinese idioms expressing extreme caution and vigilance. While focusing on the overall situation, we must also concentrate on key points, adhere to extreme thinking, prepare in advance effective measures to prevent and resist terrifying waves, and, when the crisis comes, rely on the insight to see the big from the small to directly grasp the root cause, striving to gain the strategic initiative to turn danger into safety and crisis into opportunity.

应对国内国际形势新变化的现实需要。当前，国际形势波谲云诡，伴随大国博弈、地区危机等影响的发酵和延宕，世界格局与国际安全秩序中裂变与整合、冲突与妥协、集团对峙与多元共存之间的交锋激荡日益剧烈；国内改革发展稳定任务艰巨繁重，不同思想文化、价值观念的碰撞冲突加剧；党内存在的思想不纯、组织不纯、作风不纯等突出问题尚未得到根本解决，反腐败斗争形势依然严峻复杂，党面临的“四大考验”“四种危险”将长期存在。与此同时，政治安全、国土安全、军事安全、经济安全、文化安全、社会安全、科技安全、信息安全、生态安全、资源安全、核安全等均面临不同的风险挑战。我们必须秉持“头悬利剑”的紧迫感和“如履薄冰”的警觉性，在着眼全局的同时聚焦重点，坚持极限思维，提前准备好防范和抵御惊涛骇浪的高招，在危机来临之际，凭借见微知著的洞察力直揪根源，努力争取化险为夷、转危为机的战略主动。

The inevitable requirement for promoting a positive interaction between high-quality development and high-level security. The report of the 20th National Congress of the CPC mentions the coordination of development and security three times. On the magnificent journey of Chinese-path modernization, high-quality development requires the escort of high-level security; the two are like “the two wings of one body, the twin wheels of a single chariot,” supporting and promoting each other. High-level security is manifested in continuously raising the level of national security system and capacity modernization under the comprehensive leadership of the Party and the guidance of the holistic approach to national security. High-quality development, under the guarantee of high-level security, constantly adjusts and optimizes the economic structure, transforms the drivers of growth, and lays a more solid foundation and provides more sufficient conditions for high-level security. In this sense, high-level security is inherently an integral part of high-quality development. To realize the positive interaction between high-quality development and high-level security, it is necessary to adhere to extreme thinking. We must consider security factors to the greatest extent, always maintain strategic initiative, and strive to stimulate the endogenous driving force of high-quality development. At the same time, we must continuously improve the quality, efficiency, and effectiveness of development, build a solid material foundation for high-level security, and truly achieve the coordination and integration of development and security.

推动高质量发展与高水平安全良性互动的必然要求。党的二十大报告3次提及统筹发展和安全。在中国式现代化的壮阔征程中，高质量发展需要高水平安全的保驾护航，二者如同“一体之两翼、驱动之双轮”，彼此支撑、相互促进。高水平安全，体现为在党的全面领导和总体国家安全观指导下，持续提升国家安全体系和能力现代化的水平。高质量发展，则是在高水平安全的保障下不断调整优化经济结构，转变增长动力，为高水平安全奠定更坚实的基础、提供更充分的条件。从这个意义上说，高水平安全本就是高质量发展的题中应有之义。实现高质量发展与高水平安全良性互动，必须坚持极限思维，既要最大限度考虑安全因素，始终掌握战略主动，着力激发高质量发展的内生动力，也要不断提升发展的质量、效率和效益，筑牢高水平安全的物质保障，真正实现发展与安全的统筹与融合。

An important dimension for enhancing the fighting spirit and fighting ability of cadres in the New Era. Struggle is an art; it is necessary to focus on strategic methods on the basis of grasping scientific laws. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: “Leading cadres must have the ability to see the signs of a deer from the rustling of grass, to know the tiger from the blowing of the pine wind, and to perceive the autumn from the changing of a single leaf—the ability to foresee the subtle and know the obvious. They must make scientific predictions about potential risks, know where the risks are, what their manifestations are, and what their development trends will be. Where struggle is necessary, they must struggle.” [19]19 This is a classical allusion from the *Huainanzi*, a Han dynasty philosophical text, used here to describe the ability to perceive subtle signs of change. To strengthen strategic planning and grasp the general situation and overall trend, it is necessary to use extreme thinking to deduce scenarios, face the worst-case scenario, solve the most difficult problems, and strive for the best outcome. We must continuously improve the scientific nature, precision, and operability of emergency plans under extreme conditions and complex situations, hone our fighting ability in responding to risks and challenges, and firmly grasp the initiative in struggle. Extreme thinking requires not only anticipating the worst outcome but also taking action before the greatest risk arrives, using the certainty of work to respond to the uncertainty of emergencies. To this end, Party members and cadres should be recognizable in ordinary times, boost their fighting spirit, enhance their fighting ability, and continuously strengthen their ability to prevent risks, meet challenges, and withstand pressure in struggle. At critical moments, they must be able to stand out; at times of crisis, they must be able to step forward. They must proactively consider the most extreme situations, and when extreme or limit situations arise, they must be able to withstand them, stabilize them, and bear them.

提升新时代干部斗争精神和斗争本领的重要维度。斗争是一门艺术，要在把握科学规律的基础上注重策略方法。习近平总书记指出：“领导干部要有草摇叶响知鹿过、松风一起知虎来、一叶易色而知天下秋的见微知著能力，对潜在的风险有科学预判，知道风险在哪里，表现形式是什么，发展趋势会怎样，该斗争的就要斗争。”加强战略谋划，把握大势大局，就要运用极限思维推演态势，正视最坏处、解决最难处、争取最好处，不断提高极端条件、复杂形势下应急预案的科学性、精准性、可操作性，在应对风险挑战中练就斗争本领，牢牢掌握斗争主动权。极限思维不仅要预料到最坏结果，更要在最大风险来临之前有所作为，以工作的确定性应对突发事件的不确定性。为此，党员干部应平常时候看得出来，提振斗争精神、提升斗争本领，在斗争中不断增强防风险、迎挑战、抗打压能力；关键时刻站得出来、危难关头豁得出来，把最极限的情况主动考虑到，在极端、极限情况出现时，顶得住、稳得住、扛得住。

3 Practical Requirements for Applying Extreme Thinking

3 运用极限思维的实践要求

The period of the 14th Five-Year Plan is a crucial period for consolidating the foundation and making comprehensive efforts to basically realize socialist modernization. [20]20 The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) is a national development plan for China’s economic and social development. Only by adhering to extreme thinking, consistently taking the stand of the masses, enhancing the ability to assess risks, strengthening training in “extreme” scenarios, and improving the risk early warning system can we handle with ease the various foreseeable or unforeseeable risks and challenges on the path forward.

“十五五”时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。只有坚持极限思维，始终站稳群众立场、提升风险研判能力、强化“极限”场景训练、完善风险预警体系，才能游刃有余地应对前进路上各种可以预见或难以预见的风险挑战。

Adhere to the people-centered development thought. Take the fundamental interests of the people as the starting point and ultimate goal, estimate the worst-case scenario, make every effort to protect the safety of people’s lives and property, and make the most thorough preparations step by step based on the actual situation and following objective laws. Enhance the awareness of potential dangers, neither detach from reality nor rush for success. We must both do our best and act within our means, resolutely eliminating any flashy formalism or “image projects” that waste people’s resources. Always take realizing, safeguarding, and developing the fundamental interests of the broadest majority of the people as the yardstick for measuring all work. Focus on the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life, set goals and formulate policies by seeking truth from facts, achieve overall consideration and a balance between tension and relaxation, and ensure that all work not only meets the people’s expectations and long-term needs but also has a realistic foundation and development potential. Maximize the mobilization of the people’s enthusiasm, initiative, and creativity, making them an indestructible main force in preventing and resolving various risks, and forming a powerful synergy across society for advance planning, risk early warning, and rapid response.

坚持以人民为中心的发展思想。以人民群众的根本利益为出发点和落脚点，估计到最坏的情况，全力保障人民群众的生命财产安全，并基于现实情况、遵循客观规律循序渐进做好最周全的准备。增强忧患意识，不能脱离实际也不能急于求成，既要尽力而为又要量力而行，杜绝任何华而不实的形式主义和劳民伤财的“形象工程”，始终把实现好、维护好、发展好最广大人民的根本利益作为衡量一切工作的标尺。聚焦人民日益增长的美好生活需要，实事求是地设定目标、制定政策，做到统筹兼顾、张弛有度，确保各项工作既符合人民期盼与长远需要，又具备现实基础与发展可能。最大限度调动人民群众的积极性、主动性和创造性，使之成为防范化解各种风险中坚不可摧的主体力量，形成全社会超前谋划、风险预警、快速处置的强大合力。

Enhance the ability to assess risks in the security field. In the critical period of development, the tough period of reform, and the period of prominent contradictions, adhering to extreme thinking to respond to risks and challenges requires maximizing the ability to assess risks, which covers multiple aspects including risk identification, recognition, and analysis. In the risk identification stage, we must adhere to the principles of coordination, efficiency, linkage, and integration, strengthen information collection, source identification, and risk early warning, be well-informed, take preventive measures, effectively prevent the chain and diffusion effects of risk transmission, and forestall potential risks. In the risk recognition stage, we must see not only hidden risks, internal risks, and general risks but also explicit risks, external risks, and major risks. In the risk analysis stage, we must broaden the boundaries of our perspective, pay maximum attention to security in all fields and the close interconnections between them, accurately analyze the causes of risks and strategies for their resolution, and avoid security risks tending towards extremes, which could lead to individual risks evolving into comprehensive risks, or local risks evolving into regional or systemic risks.

提升安全领域风险研判能力。在发展关键期、改革攻坚期、矛盾凸显期，坚持极限思维应对风险挑战，必须最大限度提升风险研判能力，这涵盖风险的掌握、识别、分析等多个方面。在风险掌握环节，要秉承协同高效、联动集成原则，加强信息收集、来源识别和风险预警，做到心中有数，防患于未然，有效防范风险传导的连锁性和扩散效应，预防潜在风险。在风险识别环节，既要看到隐性风险、内部风险、一般风险，也要看到显性风险、外部风险、重大风险。在风险分析环节，要拓宽视野边界，最大限度关注到各领域安全以及其间的密切关联，准确剖析风险的产生缘由与化解策略，避免安全风险趋于极限化，导致出现个别风险演化为综合风险、局部风险演化为区域性或系统性风险等情况。

Strengthen thinking training in extreme events. On the new journey, we should continuously accumulate and apply our Party’s valuable experience in challenging limits, constantly elevating it into an understanding of laws. Draw lessons from extreme events in ancient and modern times, both at home and abroad. Learn methods for resolving contradictions and problems from extremely dangerous events such as the clever crossing of the Jinsha River and the four crossings of the Chishui River, [21]21 These refer to famous military maneuvers during the Long March (1934–1935) of the Chinese Red Army, demonstrating strategic flexibility under extreme danger. and also draw lessons from extreme events such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union for governing the Party and the state. [22]22 The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 is a key historical reference for the CPC, often cited as a warning against political and ideological laxity. On the new journey towards the Second Centenary Goal, [23]23 The Second Centenary Goal refers to the goal of building China into a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful by the middle of the 21st century, marking the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. we will inevitably face many major challenges, major risks, major obstacles, and major contradictions. This requires Party members and cadres to temper themselves in practice, consciously accept revolutionary forging, move the threshold forward in their work, prepare for the worst, make the most comprehensive deployments, think of more difficulties, formulate more comprehensive contingency plans, forge a strong psychological capacity to withstand pressure, and proactively take on burdens and heavy tasks.

强化极限事件中的思维训练。新征程上，应不断积累和运用好我们党挑战极限的宝贵经验，使之不断上升为规律性认识。从古今中外的极限事件中汲取经验教训，既要从巧渡金沙江、四渡赤水河等极度危险的事件中总结化解矛盾问题的方法，又要从苏联解体等极端事件中吸取治党治国的经验教训。在向着第二个百年奋斗目标挺进的新征程上，我们势必会面临许多重大挑战、重大风险、重大阻力、重大矛盾，这就要求党员干部在实践中磨炼自己，自觉接受革命性锻造，在工作中关口前移，做最坏的打算、最全的部署，把困难想得更多一些，把预案制定得更全面一些，锤炼强大的抗压心理，主动挑担子、扛重活。

Improve the national security risk early warning system. Adhere to the holistic approach to national security, improve the national security risk early warning system with systematic thinking, regularly conduct national security risk assessments, provide factual basis for the prevention, early warning, control, and management of major risks, and strive to resolve risks at their source. Strengthen the capacity building for monitoring and early warning of overall risks and risks in key areas, make up for the shortcomings in risk monitoring and early warning capabilities in key areas of national security and social stability, enhance security assurance capabilities in areas such as territory, food, biology, energy resources, overseas interests, and important industrial and supply chains, and promote the transformation of national security risk governance from passive response to active prevention, from event-driven to source governance. Improve the national security legal system, perfect the coordination mechanism for risk prevention and control and the responsibility mechanism for prevention and control, enhance emergency management capabilities to cope with stormy seas, and ensure that the pace of national security development is more stable, the foundation is more solid, and the quality is better.

完善国家安全风险预警体系。坚持总体国家安全观，以系统思维完善国家安全风险预警体系，定期开展国家安全风险评估，为重大风险的预防、预警、控制和管理提供事实依据，力争把风险化解在源头。强化总体风险及重点领域风险的监测预警能力建设，补齐国家安全和社会稳定重点领域的风险监测预警能力短板，提升国土、粮食、生物、能源资源、海外利益、重要产业链供应链等领域的安全保障能力，推动国家安全风险治理由被动应对转向主动预防，由事件驱动转向源头治理。完善国家安全法律体系，健全风险防控协同机制与防控责任机制，增进应对惊涛骇浪的应急管理能力，确保国家安全发展的步伐更稳、基础更牢、质量更优。

(Author: Dai Yuqi, Researcher at the Research Center for the Theoretical System of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in Hubei Province, Professor at the School of Marxism, Central China Normal University)

（作者：代玉启，系湖北省中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心研究员、华中师范大学马克思主义学院教授）