Why the Critical Period Is Critical

General Secretary Xi Jinping has stressed: “Realizing socialist modernization is a historical process of stepwise progression and continuous development and progress.” Historical development is the unity of continuity and stages. Within this stepwise historical process, there are certain stages of development that can be called critical periods. The outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan states: “The 14th Five-Year Plan period occupies an important position of linking the past and the future in the process of basically realizing socialist modernization, and is a critical period for consolidating the foundation and exerting full force.” How to understand this critical period, and why the critical period is critical, can be analyzed in depth from the warp and weft of history and reality.

习近平总书记强调：“实现社会主义现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发展进步的历史过程”。历史发展是连续性和阶段性的统一。在这一阶梯式递进的历史过程中，存在某些堪称关键时期的发展阶段。“十五五”规划纲要提出：“‘十五五’时期在基本实现社会主义现代化进程中具有承前启后的重要地位，是夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期”。如何认识这一关键时期，关键时期为何关键，可从历史与现实的经纬中深入分析。

In the Qing dynasty, Duan Yucai’s *Annotation of the Shuowen Jiezi* explained “critical” (关键) as follows. “关” (guan) means “a horizontal piece of wood that holds a door shut,” that is, a door bolt; “键” (jian) means “the crossbar of a tripod. It is a horizontal piece of wood that passes through the ears on either side of the tripod mouth to lift it; without it, a tripod that has already been used for cooking cannot be lifted.” It is very similar to a door bolt in shape and function. Whether one can enter a door or lift a weight of a thousand jun [1]1 A *jun* (钧) is an ancient Chinese unit of weight, equivalent to 30 *jin* (about 15 kilograms). “A weight of a thousand jun” is a classical idiom meaning an extremely heavy burden or a matter of immense importance. is entirely determined by the “bolt” and the “crossbar.” Using these two layers of literal meaning to grasp the critical periods of history is quite illuminating. Looking at the world, there are many important periods that are truly historical thresholds. For example, if the Soviet Union had not seized the two Five-Year Plans to complete industrialization, it could not have resisted German fascism, and the history of World War II might have been rewritten. The Soviet Union would not have crossed the historical threshold to become one pole of a bipolar world. In just two short five-year periods, it was able to lift the weight of a thousand jun of a great power’s destiny and even the world’s destiny for a hundred years. This shows what a critical period is and when a critical period arrives; those who govern the state must not fail to examine this.

清代段玉裁《说文解字注》这样解释关键。关，“以木横持门户也”，就是门栓；键，“谓鼎扃也。以木横关鼎耳而举之，非是则既炊之鼎不可举也”，就是穿过鼎口两侧立耳、可以把鼎抬起来的横杠，与门栓在形状与作用上都很相似。能否穿门入户，能否提举千钧，全由“关”“键”决定。用这两层字面含义来把握历史的关键时期，颇有启示。纵观世界，有不少实为历史关口的重要时期。比如，苏联如果没有抓住两个五年计划完成工业化，就不可能抗击德国法西斯，二战历史就可能改写。苏联也就不会迈过历史门槛，成为两极世界的一极。短短两个五年，却能提举起大国命运乃至世界百年命运的千钧之重。可见，什么是关键时期，关键时期何时来临，谋国者不可不察。

Since the founding of New China, our Party has anchored itself to the great cause of national rejuvenation, consistently advanced socialist modernization, scientifically grasped each critical period in the process of socialist modernization, and demonstrated a strong historical consciousness. As early as 1964, when planning the Third Five-Year Plan, our Party deeply recognized the issue of critical periods in the process of socialist modernization, stating: “Starting from the Third Five-Year Plan period, the development of our national economy can be considered in two steps: the first step is to establish an independent and relatively complete industrial system and national economic system; the second step is to comprehensively realize the modernization of agriculture, industry, national defense, and science and technology, so that our economy can be at the forefront of the world. The Third Five-Year Plan period is a critical period for accomplishing the first step of this task.” After reform and opening up, our Party grasped the critical period from the historical perspective of reform and the strategic height of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, pointing out: “The Seventh Five-Year Plan period is a critical period for the further transformation of our country’s economic development strategy and economic system from the old model to the new model,” and emphasizing that the 11th Five-Year Plan period and the 12th Five-Year Plan period were critical periods for building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Today, based on the strategic arrangement of the “two-step” strategy for comprehensively building a great modern socialist country, our Party has made the major judgment that the 14th Five-Year Plan period is a critical period.

新中国成立以来，我们党锚定民族复兴伟业，一以贯之推进社会主义现代化，科学把握社会主义现代化进程各关键时期，展现出强烈历史自觉。早在1964年谋划“三五”计划时，我们党就深刻认识到社会主义现代化进程的关键时期问题，提出：“从第三个五年计划开始，我国的国民经济发展，可以按两步来考虑：第一步，建立一个独立的比较完整的工业体系和国民经济体系；第二步，全面实现农业、工业、国防和科学技术的现代化，使我国经济走在世界的前列。第三个五年计划时期，是实现上述第一步任务的一个关键时期。”改革开放后，我们党又从改革的历史视野和全面建设小康社会的战略高度把握关键时期，指出：“‘七五’时期是我国经济发展战略和经济体制进一步由旧模式向新模式转换的关键时期”，强调“十一五”时期、“十二五”时期是全面建设小康社会的关键时期。今天，立足全面建成社会主义现代化强国“两步走”战略安排，我们党又作出“十五五”时期是一个关键时期的重大判断。

History shows that our Party always scientifically grasps critical periods, always links them with the strategic direction and central tasks of a certain stage of development, uses a grand historical perspective to understand the stage-specific characteristics of each five-year period, precisely judges the location of the critical period, and accordingly makes targeted strategic plans. Our Party has always understood the critical points of history with a deep sense of history, led the Chinese people to cross critical historical thresholds during critical periods, and successfully turned critical periods into fulcrums for lifting the weight of a thousand jun of history.

历史表明，我们党总是科学把握关键时期，总是和某个发展阶段的战略方向、中心任务联系起来，以大历史观认识每个五年的阶段性特征，精准判断关键时期的位置所在，据此作出有针对性的战略谋划。我们党始终以深沉的历史感认识历史的关键，领导中国人民在关键时期迈过了关键的历史门槛，成功使关键时期成为撬动历史千钧的支点。

Examining several critical periods in the process of socialist modernization from the river of time, the critical nature of the 14th Five-Year Plan period is extraordinary and of great significance. Previous critical periods were all historical periods that successively prepared for and created preconditions for modernization, but were still quite distant from modernization itself. The 14th Five-Year Plan period, however, aims directly at the goal of basically realizing socialist modernization; it is the final push in the process of socialist modernization. If we take this step well and achieve decisive progress, we will have a sure grasp on basically realizing modernization. General Secretary Xi Jinping has called the 14th Five-Year Plan period a “window of opportunity,” stressing: “We must seize this window of opportunity.” This is a strategic judgment that intertwines a sense of urgency with a sense of opportunity. A window of opportunity is a historical stage where favorable conditions from all sides are concentrated within a limited time frame, and it cannot be missed. In a world of turmoil and change, only by seizing this critical five-year period can we successfully respond to various uncertainties with the certainty of our own high-quality development.

站在时间长河中审视社会主义现代化进程的几个关键时期，“十五五”时期的关键性不同寻常、意义非凡。之前的关键时期，都是接续为现代化做好准备、创造前提，但又与现代化还有较大距离的历史时期。“十五五”时期则瞄准基本实现社会主义现代化这一目标，是社会主义现代化进程中的临门一脚，走好这一步，取得决定性进展，基本实现现代化就有了必胜把握。习近平总书记把“十五五”时期称为时间窗口，强调“要抓住这个时间窗口”。这是一个忧患意识和机遇意识相交织的战略判断。时间窗口是各方面有利条件集中在有限时间里的历史阶段，不容错失。身处变乱交织的世界，我们只有抓住这关键五年，才能以自身高质量发展的确定性成功应对各种不确定性。

Looking at this critical period from reality, the world is undergoing changes unseen in a century, accelerating in evolution, providing many favorable factors for advancing socialist modernization by proactively maneuvering international space and shaping the external environment. Although Cold War mentality has resurfaced, major-power games have become more complex and intense, and a few countries may escalate their all-round containment, encirclement, suppression, and crackdown on us, the Global South is rising collectively, and emerging market economies and developing countries are on the fast track of development. These countries have huge populations, immense market potential, and strong desires for development, providing broad space for us to advance socialist modernization through win-win cooperation. The profound adjustment in the balance of international forces is breeding new opportunities. If we make good use of them, we can turn crises into opportunities and achieve greater victories even under seemingly difficult circumstances.

从现实看这个关键时期，世界百年变局加速演进，为推进社会主义现代化提供了主动运筹国际空间、塑造外部环境的诸多有利因素。尽管冷战思维沉渣泛起，大国博弈更加复杂激烈，少数国家对我实施的全方位围堵遏制打压还可能升级，但全球南方群体性崛起，新兴市场国家和发展中国家走上发展的快车道。这些国家有庞大的人口规模，有巨大的市场潜力，有强烈的发展愿望，为我们在合作共赢中推进社会主义现代化提供了广阔空间。国际力量对比深刻调整孕育着新机遇。利用好了，就能化危为机，在看似困难的情况下取得更大胜利。

Now, with less than ten years to go before basically realizing modernization, whether we can cross the threshold of modernization depends heavily on the next five years. This critical nature is reflected in the fact that, although our country’s development foundation is more solid, there are still certain bottleneck constraints and weak links in modernization that affect the quality and substance of modernization. For example, the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development remains prominent, there are blockages and obstacles in the domestic economic circulation, and agricultural and rural modernization lags behind. The closer we get to the final push, the more we must overcome the bottlenecks and shore up the weak links. If these problems are not solved well, they can easily become obstacles that slow down the overall situation. The outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes “consolidating and expanding advantages, breaking through bottleneck constraints, and shoring up weak links” and “promoting major breakthroughs in strategic tasks that affect the overall situation of Chinese-path modernization,” precisely targeting the above issues. If we achieve major breakthroughs in strategic tasks on schedule, we can drive the overall situation, vigorously and orderly advance the implementation of the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan outline, overcome difficulties, confront risks, and meet challenges with a historical initiative spirit, and ultimately push the construction of socialist modernization to complete the accumulation and leap from quantitative change to qualitative change.

现在，离基本实现现代化还有不到十年时间，能否迈进现代化的门槛，未来五年很关键。这种关键性就体现在，虽然我国发展基础更加坚实，但现代化建设还存在某些瓶颈制约、短板弱项，影响着现代化的成色和质量。比如，发展不平衡不充分问题仍然突出，国内大循环存在卡点堵点，农业农村现代化相对滞后。越是走到临门一脚阶段，越要过好瓶颈制约关、短板弱项关。这些问题解决不好，容易变成迟滞全局的障碍。“十五五”规划纲要强调“巩固拓展优势、破除瓶颈制约、补强短板弱项”“推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突破”，就是针对上述问题的。如期在战略任务上取得重大突破，就能带动全局，有力有序推进“十五五”规划纲要各项目标任务实施，以历史主动精神克难关、战风险、迎挑战，推动社会主义现代化建设最终完成由量变到质变的积累和飞跃。