Viewing the International and Domestic Situation Through the Telescope of the Laws of History

Historical development has inherent laws, and their effects are independent of human will. We must use the telescope of the laws of history to accurately, clearly, and thoroughly view the international and domestic situation facing China’s development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, stand on the correct side of history and the side of human civilization and progress, advance along the logic of historical progress, and follow the trends of the times.

历史发展有着内在规律，其作用不以人的意志为转移。我们必须端起历史规律的望远镜看准、看清、看透“十五五”时期我国发展面临的国际国内形势，站在历史正确的一边、人类文明进步的一边，沿着历史前进的逻辑前进、顺应时代的潮流发展。

Viewing opportunities and challenges amid the profound evolution of the century-old global transformation

在世界百年变局的深刻演进中看机遇和挑战

Relations among major powers shape the international situation, and the evolution of the international situation profoundly affects domestic development. At present, the century-old global transformation is accelerating, bringing both rare opportunities and severe challenges to China’s development.

大国关系牵动国际形势，国际形势演变深刻影响国内发展。当前，世界百年变局加速演进，给我国发展既带来难得机遇，也带来严峻挑战。

On the one hand, China has many favorable factors for proactively managing its international space and shaping its external environment. First, the international balance of power is undergoing profound adjustment, and world multipolarity is developing amid twists and turns. China’s international influence, appeal, and shaping power are continuously rising, and it has played and will continue to play an important role in international affairs. Second, although economic globalization has encountered headwinds, it remains an unstoppable historical trend, providing space and opportunities for China to further expand high-standard opening up and smooth the domestic and international dual circulations. Third, the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating breakthroughs, global technological innovation has entered a period of intensive activity, and the pace of industrialization is quickening. China has formed first-mover advantages in some fields, providing favorable conditions for seizing the initiative in future development. Fourth, addressing various global challenges urgently requires reforming and improving the global governance system, promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind, and implementing the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, the Global Civilization Initiative, and the Global Governance Initiative. This contributes “stable” support and “progressive” momentum to global governance, further enhancing China’s voice in global governance.

一方面，我国具备主动运筹国际空间、塑造外部环境的诸多有利因素。第一，国际力量对比深刻调整，世界多极化在曲折中发展，我国国际影响力、感召力、塑造力不断提升，在国际事务中已经并将持续发挥重要作用。第二，经济全球化虽遭遇逆流，但仍是不可阻挡的历史潮流，将为我国进一步扩大高水平对外开放、畅通国内国际双循环提供空间和机遇。第三，新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速突破，全球科技创新进入密集活跃期，产业化进程加快，我国在部分领域已形成先发优势，为赢得未来发展先机提供了有利条件。第四，应对各种全球性挑战，迫切需要改革和完善全球治理体系，推动构建人类命运共同体和落实全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球文明倡议、全球治理倡议，为全球治理贡献“稳”的支撑和“进”的动力，进一步提升我国在全球治理中的话语权。

On the other hand, China faces many external risks and challenges. First, the world is intertwined with turbulence and chaos, with intensifying instability and frequent geopolitical conflicts. Today, the interconnected, transnational, and diverse nature of security issues is more pronounced. A series of conflicts are no longer isolated regional events; the resulting crises in energy and resources, threats to strategic corridors, food shortages, and refugee flows have broken through geographical boundaries and become common challenges for all humanity. Second, unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, the threat of hegemonism and power politics is increasing, the international economic and trade order faces severe challenges, and the momentum of world economic growth is insufficient. The prevalence of unilateralism and protectionism has impacted the international economic and trade order. The layout of industrial and supply chains is evolving toward localization, regionalization, and grouping. As the politicization and securitization of the economy spread and grow, the dividends of globalization are gradually diminishing. Third, major-power competition is becoming more complex and intense. A few Western countries, clinging to Cold War mentality and zero-sum game thinking, regard China as their main strategic competitor and implement comprehensive encirclement, containment, and suppression. Some countries revive the “clash of civilizations” theory, trapped in the conflict-based political logic of “enemy-other distinction,” build “small yards with high fences,” promote “decoupling and severing supply chains,” provoke camp confrontation, launch public opinion wars and cognitive wars, and engage in ideological infiltration.

另一方面，我国面临诸多外部风险挑战。第一，世界变乱交织、动荡加剧，地缘冲突易发多发。当今世界，安全问题的联动性、跨国性、多样性更加突出，一系列冲突不再是地区性的孤立事件，带来的能源资源危机、战略通道威胁、粮食短缺、难民潮等问题，已突破地域边界，成为全人类的共同挑战。第二，单边主义、保护主义抬头，霸权主义和强权政治威胁上升，国际经济贸易秩序遇到严峻挑战，世界经济增长动能不足。单边主义与保护主义盛行冲击了国际经济贸易秩序，产业链供应链布局向本土化、区域化、集团化方向演进，随着经济泛政治化、泛安全化滋长蔓延，全球化红利逐步消减。第三，大国博弈更加复杂激烈。少数西方国家固守冷战思维和零和博弈，把我国视为主要战略竞争对手，实施全方位围堵遏制打压。一些国家重提“文明冲突论”，囿于“敌我区分”的冲突政治逻辑，筑起“小院高墙”，推行“脱钩断链”，挑起阵营对抗，发动舆论战、认知战，搞意识形态渗透。

Viewing advantages and problems amid the historical process of Chinese-path modernization

在中国式现代化的历史进程中看优势和问题

China’s development possesses many advantages. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s economic foundation is stable, with many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential. The supporting conditions and basic trend for long-term improvement remain unchanged. Specifically, China’s development has at least the following advantages. First, the institutional advantages of socialism with Chinese characteristics. The overall leadership of the Party, the ability to concentrate resources to accomplish major tasks, and the combination of an effective market and a competent government are the fundamental institutional advantages that enable China to win strategic initiative in fierce international competition and achieve high-quality development. China’s institutional advantages are also reflected in continuous self-improvement and self-development, which can, through further deepening reform comprehensively, add momentum and vitality to Chinese-path modernization and provide strong institutional guarantees. Second, the advantage of a super-large market. China has a population of over 1.4 billion and a large middle-income group. The people’s demands for education, medical care, elderly care, childcare, and other livelihood needs are more vigorous, and their diverse demands for a high-quality life are continuously growing, containing huge consumption potential. In addition, broad investment space, strong endogenous momentum, and the continuous improvement of the rule-of-law environment and business environment all exert a strong attraction for global resources and factors. Third, the advantage of a complete industrial system. Through long-term efforts, China is gradually forming a modern industrial system that is complete in system, well-supported in ancillary facilities, and efficient in coordination. A complete industrial system helps enhance the resilience of industrial and supply chains, further unleash the potential of industrial development, consolidate the foundation of the real economy, strengthen the economic security barrier, and provide a solid foundation for enhancing economic competitiveness, innovation capacity, and resilience to shocks during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Fourth, the advantage of abundant human resources. Since the New Era, significant achievements have been made in talent work. The ranks of high-quality laborers, entrepreneurs, and scientific and technological workers have continuously grown, talent effectiveness has steadily improved, and the comparative advantage of talent has been steadily strengthened. Abundant human resources promote the transformation from a “demographic dividend” to a “talent dividend” and from a “scale dividend” (of talent) to a “quality dividend.” At present, China already has a large-scale, high-quality talent team with an optimized structure and an increasingly prominent role. This will inject a continuous stream of innovation and creative momentum into economic and social development and provide important strategic support for Chinese-path modernization. General Secretary Xi Jinping profoundly pointed out: “Looking at it now, not developing has its problems, and developing also has its problems. Moreover, the problems that arise after development are no fewer than those before development, and are even more numerous and complex.” For example, insufficient effective demand, the arduous task of transitioning between old and new growth drivers, the still-large gaps in urban-rural regional development and income distribution, and many problems in rural social security, ecological and environmental protection, and other areas—these problems need to be addressed through development.

我国发展具备诸多优势。“十五五”时期，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变。具体来讲，我国发展至少具有以下几方面优势。第一，中国特色社会主义制度优势。党的全面领导、集中力量办大事、有效市场和有为政府相结合等，是我国在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动、实现高质量发展的根本制度优势。我国制度优势还体现为不断自我完善自我发展，能够通过进一步全面深化改革，为中国式现代化添动力、增活力，提供坚强制度保障。第二，超大规模市场优势。我国拥有14亿多人口和庞大的中等收入群体，人民群众对教育、医疗、养老、育幼等民生需求更加旺盛，对高品质生活的多样化需求不断增长，蕴含着巨大的消费潜力。除此之外，投资空间广、内生动力足以及法治环境和营商环境持续改善，都对全球资源要素形成强大吸引力。第三，完整产业体系优势。经过长期努力，我国正逐步形成体系完备、配套齐全、协同高效的现代化产业体系。完整产业体系有利于增强产业链供应链韧性，进一步释放产业发展潜能，夯实实体经济根基，筑牢经济安全屏障，为“十五五”时期提升经济竞争力、创新力、抗冲击力提供了坚实根基。第四，丰富人才资源优势。新时代以来，人才工作取得重大成就，高素质劳动者、企业家及科技工作者队伍不断壮大，人才效能持续提升，人才比较优势稳步增强，丰富的人才资源推动“人口红利”向“人才红利”、（人才的）“规模红利”向“质量红利”转变。目前，我国已经拥有一支规模庞大、素质优良、结构不断优化、作用日益突出的人才队伍，将为经济社会发展注入源源不断的创新创造动能，为中国式现代化持续提供重要战略支撑。习近平总书记深刻指出：“现在看来，不发展有不发展的问题，发展起来有发展起来的问题，而发展起来后出现的问题并不比发展起来前少，甚至更多更复杂了。”例如，有效需求不足、新旧动能转换任务艰巨、城乡区域发展和收入分配差距仍然较大，农村社会保障、生态环境保护等方面也存在诸多问题，这些问题需要在发展中着力加以解决。

The most important thing is to concentrate on doing our own work well

最重要的是集中力量办好自己的事

Facing major tests of high winds and choppy waters, even raging waves, we need to concentrate on doing our own work well and respond to various uncertainties with the certainty of our own development.

面对风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验，我们需要集中力量办好自己的事，以自身发展的确定性应对各种不确定性。

First, follow the laws of history and maintain strategic resolve. Humans can understand, adapt to, and apply the laws of history, but they cannot prevent the laws of history from taking effect. We must follow the laws of history, ensuring that our thinking, decisions, and actions consciously conform to and meet the requirements of objective laws—that is, act according to objective laws. Following the laws of history requires maintaining strategic resolve, not being misled by short-term goals, not fearing any risks, not being swayed by any distractions, and firmly adhering to clear goals and visions. Chinese Communists are adept at unifying lofty ideals with phased goals. Once a goal is set, they hold fast to it like a nail, continuing to strive, work hard, and persevere. Since entering the New Era, our Party has more clearly drawn up the grand blueprint for building a great modern socialist country in all respects and comprehensively advancing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. In the next five years, we must anchor the main goals of economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, strengthen our confidence in victory, and neither waver nor vacillate. We must maintain a sober and firm judgment of the situation. We must cultivate long-term strategic vision, observe and grasp the era based on the Party Central Committee’s analysis and judgment of the situation facing China’s development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, seize opportunities by riding the momentum and acting in accordance with the trend, seek opportunities amid crises, turn crises into opportunities, and seize the initiative. In the face of complex situations and major risks and challenges, we must always remain calm and composed, firm in will, and unshakable as a mountain.

一是遵循历史规律，保持战略定力。人类可以认识、顺应、运用历史规律，但无法阻止历史规律发生作用。我们要遵循历史规律，使自己的思想、决策、行动等自觉地遵循和符合客观规律要求，即按照客观规律办事。遵循历史规律，就必须保持战略定力，不为短期目标所迷，不为任何风险所惧，不为任何干扰所惑，坚定明确的目标愿景。中国共产党人善于把远大理想和阶段性目标统一起来，一旦确定目标，就咬定青山不放松，接续奋斗、艰苦奋斗、不懈奋斗。进入新时代，我们党更加清晰擘画了全面建成社会主义现代化强国、全面推进中华民族伟大复兴的宏伟蓝图。今后五年，我们要锚定“十五五”时期经济社会发展的主要目标，增强必胜信心，不动摇，不摇摆。坚定清醒的形势判断。要练就长远的战略眼光，根据党中央对“十五五”时期我国发展面临形势的分析判断，观察时代、把握时代，乘势而上、顺势而为，危中寻机、化危为机、抢占先机，面对错综复杂形势和重大风险挑战，始终做到从容镇定，意志坚定，岿然不动。

Second, give play to the historical initiative spirit and be brave and adept at struggle. Humans are both the “actors” and the “playwrights” of history. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that historical development has its laws, but people are not completely passive within them. Only by grasping the general trend of historical development, seizing the timing of historical change, working with vigor and enterprise, and forging ahead with determination can human society advance better. Facing a situation where strategic opportunities and risks and challenges coexist, and uncertainties and unpredictable factors increase, only by giving play to the historical initiative spirit can we rise to the challenges and push the world toward the correct side of history and the side of human progress; only by carrying forward the spirit of struggle and forging the strong ability to dare to fight and be good at fighting can we win the initiative and remain invincible amid the major tests of high winds and choppy waters, even raging waves.

二是发挥历史主动精神，敢于善于斗争。人既是历史的“剧中人”，也是历史的“剧作者”。习近平总书记指出，历史发展有其规律，但人在其中不是完全消极被动的。只有把握住历史发展大势，抓住历史变革时机，奋发有为、锐意进取，人类社会才能更好前进。面对战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多，唯有发挥历史主动精神，才能迎难而上，推动世界向历史正确的一边、人类进步的一边发展；唯有发扬斗争精神，锻造敢斗善斗的过硬本领，才能在风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验中赢得主动，立于不败之地。

Third, respect the principal position of the people and unite the forces of all sides. As the subject of history, the masses of the people are the creators of history and the decisive force driving the development of social history. The ultimate goal of modernization is to realize the free and comprehensive development of the individual. Chinese-path modernization is the cause of hundreds of millions of people; the people are the subject of Chinese-path modernization and the decisive force for building a strong country and achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Only by respecting the principal position of the people, firmly relying on the people, respecting the people’s creative spirit, and pooling the wisdom and strength of the entire people can we continuously advance Chinese-path modernization.

三是尊重人民主体地位，凝聚各方力量。作为历史主体，人民群众是历史的创造者，是推动社会历史发展的决定性力量。现代化的最终目标是实现人的自由全面发展。中国式现代化是亿万人民自己的事业，人民是中国式现代化的主体，是强国建设、民族复兴的决定性力量。只有尊重人民主体地位，紧紧依靠人民，尊重人民创造精神，汇集全体人民的智慧和力量，才能推动中国式现代化不断向前发展。

(The author is a professor at the School of Marxism, Party School of the Central Committee of the CPC [National Academy of Governance])

（作者系中共中央党校（国家行政学院）马克思主义学院教授）

Online editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧