America’s Financial Hegemony, Financial Colonization, and International Anti-Hegemonic Action
严静峰:美国的金融霸权、金融殖民与国际反霸权行动
After the Second World War, the United States, relying on its financial hegemony, has wantonly wielded the financial big stick to impose financial sanctions on other countries, continuously pushed up the scale of U.S. debt, forced the entire world to pay for the U.S. financial crisis, carried out economic exploitation and financial extortion against other countries through financial colonization, and globally harvested surplus value and plundered the world’s wealth. What is the basis of U.S. financial hegemony? How does the United States use its financial hegemony to harvest the world? Is U.S. financial hegemony truly unbreakable? How are countries around the world resisting U.S. financial hegemony? By answering these questions, this article attempts to reveal the power base and operational logic of U.S. financial hegemony. We argue that U.S. financial hegemony has a profound fragility and is by no means unassailable.
第二次世界大战后,美国凭借其金融霸权,肆意挥舞金融大棒对他国实施金融制裁,不断推高美债规模,让全世界为美国的金融危机买单,通过金融殖民对其他国家进行经济剥削和金融压榨,在全球收割剩余价值、掠夺世界财富。美国的金融霸权的基础是什么?美国是如何利用金融霸权收割世界的?美国的金融霸权真的坚不可摧吗?世界各国是如何反抗美国金融霸权的?通过对这些问题的解答,本文试图揭示美国金融霸权的权力基础和运行逻辑。我们认为,美国金融霸权具有深刻的脆弱性,并非牢不可破。
I. The Vast Support System of U.S. Financial Hegemony
一、美国金融霸权的庞大支撑系统
Financial hegemony refers to a state in which a country, by virtue of its super-strong economic, military, and other comprehensive national power, controls the dominant power over the international currency, control over financial institutions, and the power to set financial rules, thereby forming a dominant power structure within the global financial system. U.S. financial hegemony relies on a support system that has been accumulated over a long period, is exquisitely designed, tightly structured, and solidly stable. In long-term practice, the various elements of the support system have formed a cyclical mechanism of mutual support and mutual promotion.
金融霸权是指一个国家凭借其超强的经济、军事等综合国力,掌控国际货币主导权、金融机构控制权与金融规则制定权,进而在全球金融体系中形成一种支配性的权力结构状态。美国的金融霸权依托一套经过长期积累而形成的设计精巧、结构严密、坚实稳固的支撑系统。在长期的实践中,支撑系统的各要素之间形成了一个相互支持、相互促进的循环机制。
First, an international financial system centered on the U.S. dollar that controls the lifelines of global finance. First, the United States established the dollar standard, making the U.S. dollar the world’s most important international reserve currency, settlement currency, and foreign exchange transaction medium. The Bretton Woods system established a gold exchange standard linking the dollar to gold, giving the dollar an “exorbitant privilege” to suppress and exploit the economies of other countries, but the dollar still could not escape the fetters of gold. The establishment of the Jamaica system marked the formal formation of a dollar standard free from the constraints of gold, making the dollar an “unanchored” currency that could be issued and circulated worldwide and exchanged for anything solely on the basis of U.S. national credit, granting the dollar a “super-exorbitant privilege.” Second, the United States controls the infrastructure for global capital flows, seizing the throat of world capital flows. The SWIFT system is the information channel for the world’s most important international payment and clearing system; its original design was to be free from any political influence or government intervention, providing only professional network communication services for international financial institutions. However, after the “9/11” incident, the United States, under the pretext of “national security” and “anti-money laundering,” gradually gained dominance over the SWIFT system. Third, the United States possesses strong economic power, enabling it to circulate massive amounts of dollars abroad through international trade and investment. For a long period after the Second World War, the United States was the top trading partner for the vast majority of countries in the world and also the world’s largest foreign investor. The number and proportion of U.S. companies in the Fortune Global 500 have long ranked first, and these numerous transnational monopoly groups have become important carriers driving the flow of the dollar worldwide. Fourth, the United States controls key global strategic resources and can use them to cooperate with U.S. financial policies and financial capital speculation. For example, by denominating oil exports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in U.S. dollars, it constructed the petrodollar system, allowing the dollar to circulate globally and ensuring the dollar’s status as the world’s dominant currency.
第一,以美元为中心、控制全球金融命脉的国际金融体系。一是美国确立了美元本位制,美元成为世界上最主要的国际储备货币、结算货币和外汇交易手段。布雷顿森林体系确立了美元和黄金挂钩的金汇兑本位制,使美元获得了压制和剥削其他国家经济的“嚣张的特权”,但美元仍然无法摆脱黄金的羁绊。而牙买加体系的建立标志着脱离黄金束缚的美元本位制正式形成,美元成为“无锚”货币,仅凭美国的国家信用就可以发行并在世界范围内流通并兑换一切,美元获得了“超级嚣张的特权”。二是美国控制了全世界资金流动的基础设施,扼住世界资金流动的咽喉。SWIFT系统是全球最重要的国际收付清算体系的信息通道,其设计初衷是不受任何政治影响和政府干预,仅为国际金融机构提供专业的网络通信服务。但是,“9·11”事件发生后,美国打着“国家安全”和“反洗钱”的旗号,逐步获得了SWIFT系统的主导权。三是美国拥有强大的经济实力,能够通过国际贸易和投资将巨量美元流通至国外。第二次世界大战后的很长时期内,美国是世界上绝大多数国家的第一贸易国,也是世界对外投资第一大国。美国在世界500强企业中的数量和占比长期排名第一,这些数量众多的跨国垄断集团成为推动美元在全世界流动的重要载体。四是美国掌控全球重要战略资源,可以利用它们配合美国的金融政策和金融资本炒作。如通过石油输出国组织的石油出口以美元计价,构建石油美元体系,让美元在全世界流通,确保美元成为世界主导货币。
Second, a powerful military force system. A strong military strength supports the national sovereign credit of the United States, allowing it to drive capital flows worldwide and providing a strong pillar for U.S. financial hegemony. After the Second World War, the United States became the world’s top military power and has done everything possible to maintain its military hegemony: in 2022, U.S. military spending reached $877 billion, accounting for 39% of the global total; the United States possesses the world’s largest and most complete military industrial and research system, with the technological level of its weapons and equipment far exceeding that of other countries; the United States has deployed 374 military bases in over 140 countries worldwide, with more than 300,000 troops stationed abroad; the United States has the world’s largest navy and air force, maintaining 11 aircraft carrier fleets distributed across the world’s oceans; the United States maintains a huge nuclear arsenal sufficient to destroy the Earth several times over; and so on. Financial hegemony and military hegemony support and promote each other: dollar hegemony requires military expansion and direct control of strategic locations, while military hegemony relies on dollar hegemony to absorb capital from the world for its financing. A strong military force ensures the security of the United States but also creates security risks for other countries, enhancing U.S. national sovereign credit while weakening the sovereign credit of other countries.
第二,强大的军事力量体系。强大的军事实力支撑了美国的国家主权信用,可以让美国在全世界驱动资本流动,为美国金融霸权提供了坚强支柱。第二次世界大战之后,美国成为世界头号军事强国,并且千方百计地维持其军事霸权:2022年,美国军费开支达到8770亿美元,占全球军费总额的39%;美国具有世界上最庞大、最完整的军工生产和科研体系,武器装备的科技水平远超其他国家;美国在全世界140多个国家部署有374个军事基地,驻军达到30多万人;美国具有世界上最庞大的海军和空军,维持了11个航母舰队,分布在世界各个大洋;美国保有庞大的核武库,足够毁灭地球数次;等等。金融霸权与军事霸权相互支撑、相互促进,美元霸权需要军事扩张和直接控制战略要地,军事霸权又需要依靠美元霸权从全世界吸收资本为其融资。强大的军事力量保障了美国的安全,但也造成其他国家的安全风险,在增强美国国家主权信用的同时削弱了其他国家的主权信用。
Third, possessing an advanced scientific and technological innovation system. This is the foundation of U.S. military hegemony, a support for U.S. financial innovation, and a tool for the United States to “strangle” other countries with high technology. After the Second World War, the United States initiated and led the third scientific and technological revolution, becoming the world’s top scientific and technological innovation power, promoting and consolidating U.S. financial hegemony. First, advanced technology is the foundation of the United States’ advanced military strength and strong economic power; without an advanced scientific and technological innovation system, it would be difficult for U.S. military strength to remain at the forefront of the world, and its strong economic power would eventually be surpassed. Second, advanced scientific and technological innovation drives U.S. financial innovation; it is precisely based on the information revolution of computer and internet technology that financial transactions have become more convenient and various financial derivative products have been able to emerge. Finally, advanced technology allows U.S. enterprises to enjoy high monopoly profits and is also a tool for the United States to “strangle” other countries and suppress them in the middle and low ends of the international industrial chain and value chain. After the Second World War, the United States was long the world’s largest spender on research and development, mastering the most “root” technologies in the world. Strong technological strength has laid a solid foundation for strong military and economic power, continuously consolidating and enhancing U.S. national credit.
第三,拥有先进的科技创新体系。这是美国军事霸权的基础,又是美国金融创新的支撑,也是美国用高科技对其他国家“卡脖子”的工具。第二次世界大战后,美国发起并引领了第三次科技革命,成为世界头号科技创新强国,促进并巩固美国的金融霸权。首先,先进的科技是美国先进的军事实力和强大的经济实力的基础,没有先进的科技创新体系,美国的军事实力难以维持在世界前列,强大的经济实力也终将被超越。其次,先进的科技创新推动着美国的金融创新,正是基于计算机和互联网技术的信息革命,金融交易才更加便捷,各种金融衍生产品才得以产生。最后,先进科技让美国企业享受高额垄断利润,也是美国对其他国家“卡脖子”、将其他国家压制在国际产业链和价值链中低端的工具。第二次世界大战以后,美国曾经长期是科研经费投入第一大国,掌握了世界上最多的“根”技术。强大的科技实力奠定了强大的军事和经济实力,持续巩固和增强美国的国家信用。
Fourth, possessing strong international discursive power. Through ideological infiltration and control over the entire world, promoting privatization, liberalization, and marketization globally, it opens the way for U.S. financial hegemony. The theoretical support for financialization is neoliberalism. The United States uses theories that serve its financial hegemony to brainwash economic officials in countries around the world, especially in developing countries, in order to achieve victory without fighting. American economist Michael Hudson argues that mainstream Western economics, represented by the Chicago School, completely avoids discussing the importance of national geo-economic strategy, the failure of International Monetary Fund austerity programs, the dangers of dollarization of foreign economies, and the unearned characteristics of the key currency standard; instead, it vigorously promotes this theory, which essentially serves U.S. financial hegemony, turning the process of theoretical dissemination entirely into a process of brainwashing. Personnel influenced by this ideological theory and ideology have entered international economic and financial organizations in large numbers, working in banks or government economic departments of various countries, or serving as teachers in universities in various countries to continue spreading this theory. The harmfulness of this to Global South countries is self-evident.
第四,掌握强大的国际话语权。通过对全世界进行意识形态的渗透和控制,在全世界推动私有化、自由化和市场化,为美国金融霸权开辟道路。金融化的理论支撑是新自由主义,美国用服务于其金融霸权的理论给世界各国特别是发展中国家主管经济的人员洗脑,以达到不战而胜的目的。美国经济学家迈克尔·赫德森(MichaelHudson)认为,以芝加哥学派为代表的西方主流经济学对国家地缘经济战略的重要性、国际货币基金组织紧缩计划的失败、外国经济美元化的危险和关键货币本位制的不劳而获的特征完全避而不谈;相反,它把这种本质上服务于美国金融霸权的理论大力推广,将理论的传播过程完全变成一个洗脑的过程。受到这种思想理论和意识形态影响的人员大量进入国际经济和金融组织机构工作,进入世界各国的银行或政府经济部门,或在各国的高校担任教师继续传播这套理论,这对于全球南方国家的危害性是不言而喻的。
Fifth, the United States controls international financial and credit-rating agencies, turning them into instruments that serve its financial hegemony. Owing to historical and institutional design factors, the United States dominates most decisions of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The U.S. government oversees their operations alongside those of other intergovernmental lending institutions, and they constitute an important channel through which the United States controls the world via financial capital. It can be said that the international financial system is “an appendage of the U.S. government.” The World Trade Organization is also a vital tool for the United States to open pathways for the global circulation of the dollar and the worldwide expansion of U.S. financial capital through commodity trade. “The primary objective of the World Trade Organization is to open as many regions of the world as possible to the free movement of capital, because this is the foundation on which the financial power of the United States, Europe, and Japan extracts tribute from the rest of the world.” The United States also controls international credit-rating agencies, using credit rating adjustments to manipulate financial markets. Among the three most authoritative international credit-rating agencies, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s are U.S.-controlled, while Fitch is controlled by the United States and its European allies. Driven by the United States, these agencies have extended their reach abroad, becoming the “arbiters of life and death” for the economies and enterprises of many countries. The dependence of global investment institutions on U.S. rating agencies has caused the power of these agencies—originally intended merely to perform a service function of guiding capital markets—to swell continuously, turning them almost into regulators of financial markets and, in effect, wielding the power of life and death over enterprises.
第五,美国掌控国际金融和信用评级机构,使其成为服务于美国金融霸权的工具。由于历史和制度设计的原因,美国左右着国际货币基金组织和世界银行的大部分决策。美国政府监督它们与其他政府间借贷机构的运作,它们是美国通过金融资本控制世界的重要途径。可以说国际金融体系是“美国政府的附属物”。世界贸易组织也是美国通过商品贸易为美元的全球流动、美国金融资本的全球化扩张开辟道路的重要工具。“世界贸易组织的首要目标是打开尽可能多的世界地区,让资本自由流动,因为这是美国、欧洲和日本的金融力量从世界其他地区榨取贡金的根基。”美国还掌控国际信用评级机构,利用信用评级调整操控金融市场。在最权威的三家国际信用评级机构中,穆迪、标准普尔由美国控股,惠誉由美国及其欧洲盟友控制。在美国的推动下,这些评级机构将触角延伸到国外,成为不少国家经济及其企业的“生死判官”。全球投资机构对美国评级机构的依赖,使得本来只具有引导资本市场服务性功能的评级机构的权力不断膨胀,几乎成了金融市场的调节大师,变相掌握着企业的生杀大权。
Sixth, the United States possesses a vast global alliance system, using allied relationships to support one another and maintain strategic consistency. “Hegemony requires a complex structure of interlocking institutions and procedures. … America’s global supremacy is sustained by an elaborate system of alliances and coalitions that indeed covers the globe.” After the Second World War, the United States implemented the “European Recovery Program,” providing economic aid and assisting in the reconstruction of war-ravaged Western European countries. On one hand, this promoted postwar economic reconstruction and development in Western Europe; on the other hand, it deepened relations between the United States and the recipient countries, thereby strengthening U.S. economic control over Western Europe. In 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was established, composed of major developed countries in Western Europe and North America, including the United States, Britain, and France. This is an international military alliance led by the United States, an extension and development of the Marshall Plan in the military sphere, enabling the United States to directly intervene in European internal affairs, establish military bases in multiple European countries, station troops, deploy nuclear weapons, and firmly control Europe’s military defense system in its own hands. To this day, the number of NATO member states has grown from the original 12 to 32, forming an important foundation for the United States’ superpower leadership and global hegemony. In Asia, there is Japan under U.S. control, South Korea under U.S. restraint, and the United States also exerts significant influence over the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and other Southeast Asian countries. In Oceania, Australia and New Zealand are members of the Five Eyes alliance. The U.S. alliance system is primarily composed of developed capitalist countries, which serve as crucial support for the dollar’s status as the world’s dominant currency and for U.S. financial hegemony. Of course, it should be noted that as U.S. national power relatively declines, the interest relationships determined by power between it and its allies are also undergoing adjustment, leading to growing contradictions among them.
第六,美国拥有庞大的全球盟友体系,利用盟友关系相互支持,保持战略一致性。“霸权要有一个相互交织的机构和程序的复杂结构。……美国在全球至高无上的地位,是由一个的确覆盖全球的同盟和联盟所组成的精细体系支撑的”。第二次世界大战之后,美国实施了“欧洲复兴计划”,对被战争破坏的西欧各国进行经济援助和协助重建,这一方面促进了西欧各国战后的经济重建与发展,另一方面使美国与受援助国家的关系更加密切,进而加强了对西欧各国的经济控制。1949年,又成立了由美国、英国、法国等西欧和北美主要发达国家构成的北大西洋公约组织,这是一个以美国为首的国际军事同盟组织,是“马歇尔计划”在军事领域的延伸和发展,使美国可以直接参与欧洲内部事务,在欧洲多国建立军事基地,派军队驻扎,部署核武器,将欧洲的军事防务体系牢牢地控制在自己手中。时至今日,北约成员国数量已经从初创时的12个国家增加到32个国家,是美国世界超级大国领导地位和世界霸权的重要基础。在亚洲,还有受美国控制的日本,受美国牵制的韩国,美国对东南亚的菲律宾、马来西亚、泰国、新加坡等国也有极大影响力。在大洋洲,澳大利亚和新西兰还是“五眼联盟”的成员。美国的盟友体系以发达资本主义国家为主,它们是美元成为世界主导货币以及美国金融霸权的重要支撑。当然,应该看到,随着美国国力的相对衰弱,其与盟友之间由实力决定的利益关系也在调整之中,导致它们之间的矛盾日益滋生。
II. The Financial Colonization of the Entire World by U.S. Financial Hegemony
二、美国金融霸权对全世界的金融殖民
After the Second World War, the colonial countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America achieved independence one after another, and the capitalist colonial system completely collapsed. However, colonialism did not disappear. It extends in practice in the form of financial colonization, which is the systematic control and exploitation by a hegemonic financial power over other countries’ sovereignty, economy, society, and other fields through financial means. It is an important manifestation of neocolonialism.
第二次世界大战后,亚非拉的殖民地国家纷纷实现独立,资本主义殖民体系彻底走向瓦解。但是,殖民主义并未消亡。它以金融殖民的形式在实践中延伸,是金融霸权国通过金融手段对他国主权、经济、社会等领域实施系统性控制与剥削,是新殖民主义的重要表现形态。
First, using financial hegemony to control countries around the world, forcing them to submit to and serve U.S. interests. The main channels through which U.S. financial hegemony controls the world are: First, vigorously promoting neoliberal ideology and pushing countries to carry out privatization, liberalization, and marketization reforms. In essence, this is the United States using financial hegemony to destroy the autonomous development capacity of Third World countries through global financial means, and then taking over these countries through financial means, thereby globally reconstructing a rentier economy centered on the United States. Second, the Federal Reserve deeply influences and controls the central banks of many countries, reducing them to “branch banks” of the Federal Reserve. The main function of many countries’ central banks is increasingly concentrated on maintaining currency stability, and the basis for achieving this stability relies solely on holding dollar foreign exchange reserves, which are precisely controlled and managed by the Federal Reserve (and, to some extent, the U.S. Treasury). Consequently, these so-called independent central banks, although independent of their own sovereign governments, are increasingly dependent on the Federal Reserve and subservient to dollar hegemony, thereby becoming a backdoor through which the dollar system impacts the domestic economies of various countries. Third, using transnational financial monopoly groups to infiltrate and control the economic and social sectors of various countries. These groups control the industrial sectors of other countries through direct investment, equity acquisitions, venture capital, and other means, either through direct controlling stakes or by weaving a network dominated by monopoly financial capital through subsidiaries and sub-subsidiaries. They also use forms such as financial futures speculation, monopolizing bulk commodities, and debt lending to control the governments, enterprises, and even ordinary people of other countries. The chains of financial capital extend further into agriculture, industry, finance, trade, science and technology, education, and other fields, thereby constructing a delicately designed and tightly organized global control system. Fourth, penetrating and controlling the governments and banking institutions of other countries through international economic and financial institutions. The United States transforms its own rules into the prevailing rules of these international institutions, and then uses these institutions to push other countries to carry out reforms that align with its own interests. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank often exploit the economic difficulties of other countries, forcing them to accept neoliberal reforms while providing aid loans, policy guidance, and reform advice, and then launching financial predation operations.
第一,利用金融霸权控制世界各国,迫使其服从并服务于美国的利益。美国金融霸权控制世界的途径主要有:一是大力鼓吹新自由主义意识形态,推动各国进行私有化、自由化和市场化改革。其实质是美国利用金融霸权在全球以金融手段摧毁第三世界国家自主发展的能力,并以金融手段接管这些国家,从而在全球重建以美国为中心的食利者经济。二是美联储深刻影响并控制多国央行,使其沦为美联储的“分支银行”。多国央行的主要职能越来越集中于维持币值稳定,而实现这一稳定的基础唯有依赖美元外汇储备,而美元恰恰由美联储(以及一定程度上由美国财政部)控制和管理。于是,这些国家的所谓独立央行,虽独立于本国主权政府,却日益依附于美联储、屈从于美元霸权,进而成为美元体系冲击各国国内经济的后门。三是利用跨国金融垄断集团渗透并控制各国经济社会部门。这些集团通过直接投资、股权收购、风险投资等方式控制其他国家的产业部门,或直接控股,或通过子公司、孙公司编织起一张由垄断金融资本支配的网络体系。它们还借助金融期货炒作、垄断大宗商品、债务借贷等形式,控制其他国家的政府、企业乃至普通民众。金融资本的锁链进一步延伸至农业、工业、金融、贸易、科技、教育等各个领域,从而构建出一套设计精巧、组织严密的全球控制体系。四是通过国际经济和金融机构渗透并控制他国政府和银行机构。美国将自己的规则转化为这些国际机构的通行规则,再利用这些规则推动其他国家进行符合自身利益要求的改革。国际货币基金组织和世界银行往往利用其他国家的经济困难,在提供援助贷款、政策指导、改革建议的同时,迫使其接受新自由主义的改革,随后展开金融捕猎行动。
Second, the United States uses financial hegemony to harvest countries around the world, extracting exorbitant returns to maintain and consolidate its hegemonic system. First, it levies seigniorage on countries that use the dollar, reaping enormous gains from its currency privilege. This consists mainly of two parts: one part comes from foreign hoarding of dollars, yet the Federal Reserve pays no interest on its cash liabilities, which is equivalent to obtaining an interest-free loan. The other part comes from the continuous rise in foreign holdings of dollar-denominated financial claims—that is, the growing effective demand for dollar financial assets—which in effect lowers the cost of U.S. borrowing, equivalent to generating an interest subsidy. This saves the United States at least $150 billion in interest each year, or 1–3 percent of U.S. GDP. Second, it uses monetary policy to shift economic or financial crises onto the rest of the world. Over a long period, the United States has developed a standard “sheep-shearing” [n1] operational routine: the dollar’s interest rate is lowered, increasing dollar supply and liquidity—large amounts of dollars flow into target countries, entering real estate, stock markets, bond markets, and so on—the target country experiences inflation, asset bubbles, and economic overheating—the dollar’s interest rate is raised, transnational capital cashes out at high levels and flows back to the United States—the target country’s bubble bursts, crisis erupts, and the economy contracts—the target country’s core assets are suppressed, preparing for the next round of “sheep-shearing.” The United States can also adopt quantitative easing monetary policy, issuing large quantities of dollars, exporting inflation to the world, harvesting global wealth, and directly shifting its own financial risks and debt risks onto the entire world. Third, the massive U.S. bonds purchased by other countries are in essence “IOUs” that cannot be redeemed. The United States uses extremely low-cost dollar banknotes to exchange for other countries’ physical goods, services, and assets. To prevent foreign exchange shortages and financial crises, other countries are forced to store large amounts of dollars, and to prevent the dollar’s depreciation from reducing the value of the dollars they hold, they invest their dollar reserves back in the United States, returning the dollars they have earned through hard work to the United States. This is an absurd phenomenon of “poor countries lending money to rich countries.” The total bond debt of the U.S. Treasury now far exceeds its actual capacity and willingness to pay; in fact, it has never intended to clear these debt IOUs. It can reduce its debt burden by printing more banknotes, thereby quietly achieving a partial default on its debts to foreign creditors. Massive U.S. debt is a thoroughgoing “trillion-dollar scam.”
第二,美国利用金融霸权收割世界各国,榨取高额收益,维持和巩固霸权体系。一是向使用美元的国家征收铸币税,获取货币特权的巨额收益。主要包括两部分:一部分来自外国对美元的囤积,但美联储并不对现金负债支付任何利息,这相当于获得了一笔无息贷款。另一部分来自外国持有的、以美元标价的金融债权的不断上升,即对美元金融资产有效需求的不断增长,实际上降低了美国借贷的成本,这相当于产生了一笔利息补贴。这为美国每年节省了至少1500亿美元的利息,相当于美国GDP的1%—3%。二是利用货币政策向全世界转嫁经济危机或金融危机。长期以来,美国已经形成了一个常用的“剪羊毛”操作套路:美元降息,增加美元供给和流动性——大量美元流入目标国,投入房地产、股市、债券市场等——目标国出现通货膨胀、资产泡沫、经济过热——美元加息,跨国资本高位套现,获利回流美国——目标国泡沫破灭,危机爆发,经济萎缩——打压目标国核心资产,为下一次“剪羊毛”作准备。美国还可以采用量化宽松的货币政策,大量发行美元,向世界输出通货膨胀,收割全球的财富,将自身的金融风险和债务风险直接转嫁给全世界。三是其他国家购买的美国巨额债券的本质就是无法兑现的“白条”。美国用成本极为低廉的美元纸币去兑换其他国家的实体商品、服务和资产,其他国家为了防止外汇短缺和金融危机,不得不大量存储美元,同时为了防止美元贬值而使手中的美元价值下降,又将美元储备投资于美国,把辛苦赚来的美元又归还给美国。这是一种非常荒谬的“穷国借钱给富国”现象。现在美国财政部的债券总额已大大超过了其实际支付能力和支付意愿,其实它根本就没想过要清偿这些债务借条。它可以通过印刷更多的钞票来削减债务负担,进而神不知鬼不觉地实现对外国债权人的部分债务违约。巨额美债就是一个彻头彻尾的“万亿美元大骗局”。
Third, the United States uses financial hegemony to sanction and strike at those who disobey or challenge it, maintaining and consolidating its hegemonic system. For those who disobey or challenge the hegemonic system, before launching direct military strikes, the United States often uses financial hegemony to sanction and strike at them. First, it freezes or confiscates assets; second, it freezes or cancels financing between countries or from international institutions; third, it cuts off channels for obtaining and using the dollar; fourth, it prohibits global financial institutions from transacting with the sanctioned target; fifth, it sanctions the target’s banking system; sixth, it forces other countries to sign financial terms or agreements that are disadvantageous to them, thereby striking at their financial industry and entire economic system.
第三,美国利用金融霸权制裁和打击不服从者或挑战者,维护和巩固霸权体系。对于霸权体系变动过程中的不服从者和挑战者,在发动直接的军事打击之前,美国往往利用金融霸权对其进行制裁和打击。一是冻结或没收资产,二是冻结或取消国家间或国际机构融资,三是切断获取和使用美元的渠道,四是禁止全球金融机构与被制裁对象交易,五是制裁对方银行体系,六是迫使他国签订包含于己不利的金融条款或协议,进而打击对方的金融业以及整个经济体系。
Fourth, the United States uses the integration and innovation of finance and digital technology to promote the digital reconstruction of financial hegemony. Relying on its powerful technological and capital advantages, the United States attempts to use digital technology to expand and consolidate its financial hegemonic system. First, the United States actively promotes and strengthens its own leadership position in the field of digital financial technology. Non-sovereign cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin were once seen as a threat to dollar hegemony, but the U.S. government has now turned to actively exploiting them. Through the *21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act*, the United States has solidified the dollar’s position in pricing, payment, and settlement for non-sovereign cryptocurrency transactions; through the executive order *Strengthening U.S. Leadership in Digital Financial Technology*, it has vowed to build a “crypto capital of the world” in the United States and establish a mechanism for digital stablecoins to be pegged to the dollar, thereby extending U.S. financial hegemony into the digital financial domain. Second, the United States controls rule-making power through compliance regulation and controls digital financial infrastructure. The *Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act* establishes stablecoin regulatory rules in the form of federal legislation, explicitly requiring stablecoins to be backed by dollars or U.S. Treasury bonds, constructing a closed-loop “stablecoin–Treasury bond” mechanism to consolidate the dollar’s status as the global standard for digital payments. The United States also imposes sanctions on foreign cryptocurrency exchanges, forcing global trading platforms to accept its rules, and requires allies to implement anti-money-laundering rules for crypto assets simultaneously. In addition, the United States possesses globally leading computing power and data center infrastructure, enabling it to dominate global financial markets—boosting domestic investment in computing power while suppressing competitors abroad through export restrictions, ensuring a monopoly on national computing power. Finally, the United States achieves the digitization of financial plunder through digital reconstruction. The digital reconstruction of U.S. financial hegemony is a systematic plundering project with data as “crude oil,” platforms as “oil fields,” algorithms as “refineries,” and the dollar as the “settlement anchor,” embedding traditional financial hegemony into digital infrastructure to construct a new digital financial hegemony. Through three mechanisms—virtual ground rent, algorithmic sanctions, and the stablecoin debt closed loop—it achieves a new type of colonial plunder without bloodshed: first, by controlling global digital infrastructure, turning the internet into “digital territory” and levying virtual ground rent on global users; second, on the basis of digital technology, using blockchain, stablecoins, and smart contracts to impose instantaneous, precise algorithmic sanctions on other countries and enterprises around the world; third, by pegging stablecoins to the dollar, constructing a digital dollar cycle of “U.S. Treasury issues bonds—stablecoin companies buy Treasury bonds—users use stablecoins,” making global users perpetually take over U.S. debt.
第四,美国利用金融与数字技术的交融创新,推动金融霸权的数字化重构。美国凭借其强大的科技和资本优势,试图利用数字技术扩大并稳固其金融霸权体系。首先,美国积极推动并强化自身在数字金融技术领域的领导地位。比特币等非主权加密货币曾被认为对美元霸权构成威胁,但美国政府目前已转向积极利用。通过《21世纪金融创新与技术法案》,美国稳固了美元在非主权加密货币交易中的计价、支付与结算地位;通过《加强美国在数字金融技术领域的领导地位》行政令,誓言在美国打造“加密货币的世界之都”,建立数字稳定币与美元挂钩的机制,从而将美国金融霸权延伸至数字金融领域。其次,美国通过合规化监管把控规则制定权,并控制数字金融基础设施。《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》以联邦立法形式建立稳定币监管规则,明确稳定币必须以美元或美债为支撑,构建“稳定币—美债”的闭环运作机制,以巩固美元作为全球数字支付的标准地位。美国还对外国加密货币交易所实施制裁,迫使全球交易平台接受其规则,并要求盟友同步实施加密资产反洗钱规则。此外,美国拥有全球领先的计算能力和数据中心基础设施,使其在全球金融市场中占据主导地位——对内提升算力投资,对外则通过出口限制打压竞争者,以确保国家算力的垄断地位。最后,美国通过数字化重构实现金融掠夺的数字化。美国金融霸权的数字化重构是一场以数据为“原油”、平台为“油田”、算法为“精炼厂”、美元为“结算锚”的系统性掠夺工程,将传统金融霸权嵌入数字基础设施,进而构建新的数字金融霸权。通过虚拟地租、算法制裁、稳定币债务闭环三大机制,实现不流血的新殖民掠夺:一是通过控制全球数字基础设施,将互联网变为“数字领土”,对全球用户征收虚拟地租;二是以数字技术为基础,通过区块链、稳定币、智能合约对全球其他国家和企业实施即时、精准的算法制裁;三是通过稳定币锚定美元,构建“美国财政部发债—稳定币公司购买美债—用户使用稳定币”的数字美元循环,让全球用户为美债永续接盘。
III. The Fragility of the U.S. Financial Hegemonic System
三、美国金融霸权体系的脆弱性
Financial hegemony is based on national credit. In the operation of financial hegemony, the logic of financial capital on the one hand drives the development of U.S. financial hegemony, and on the other hand accelerates the overdrawing of U.S. national credit, thereby gradually weakening its hegemonic foundation. Once national credit is continuously overdrawn or even goes bankrupt, the U.S. financial hegemonic system will inevitably collapse. Thus, the U.S. financial hegemonic system pushes the decadence and parasitism of imperialism to the extreme, yet the seemingly unbreakable hegemony itself contains internal contradictions and fragility that are difficult to overcome.
金融霸权以国家信用为基础。在金融霸权的运行过程中,金融资本的逻辑一方面推动着美国金融霸权的发展,另一方面也加速了美国国家信用的透支,从而逐步削弱其霸权基础。一旦国家信用持续透支甚至走向破产,美国的金融霸权体系必将崩溃。由此可见,美国的金融霸权体系将帝国主义的腐朽性与寄生性推至极致,而看似坚不可摧的霸权本身却蕴含着难以克服的内在矛盾与脆弱性。
First, the instability and fragility inherent in the financial system itself are built into the financial hegemonic system, causing the financial hegemonic system to be naturally fragile. “Credit accelerates the violent eruption of this contradiction—crisis—and thus promotes the dissolution of the elements of the old mode of production.” [n2] First, financial hegemony is based on national credit built on comprehensive national strength, and this credit itself changes correspondingly with changes in the international landscape. No country can maintain hegemony forever; financial hegemony is necessarily only a historical phenomenon. Second, the high profits of the financial hegemonic system are linked to high leverage, high debt, and high risk, carrying a strong character of gambling and fraud. Third, in response to financial crises, the United States always tries by every means to shift the crisis outward, even creating “controlled chaos” in the world, all at the cost of gradually exhausting its national credit. Finally, U.S. financial hegemony has lost its real economic foundation domestically; financial profits come mainly from harvesting the wealth created by the real economies of other countries. When powerful industrialized countries use real industrial chains to resist the virtual financial network, its financial hegemony will inevitably reveal its true face of being outwardly strong but inwardly weak.
第一,金融系统本身固有的不稳定性和脆弱性,内置于金融霸权体系之中,导致金融霸权体系天然地具有脆弱性。“信用加速了这种矛盾的暴力的爆发,即危机,因而促进了旧生产方式解体的各要素”。首先,金融霸权以建立在国家综合实力之上的国家信用为基础,而这种信用本身会随国际格局的变化而相应变化。没有哪个国家能永远维持霸权,金融霸权也必然只是一个历史现象。其次,金融霸权体系的高利润链接着高杠杆、高负债与高风险,带有极强的赌博和欺诈性质。再次,为应对金融危机,美国总是千方百计将危机向外转嫁,甚至在世界制造“可控混乱”,而这一切都以逐步耗尽其国家信用为代价。最后,美国金融霸权在国内已失去实体经济基础,金融利润主要来自对其他国家实体经济创造的财富的收割。当实力强大的工业化国家以实体产业链反抗虚拟金融网之时,其金融霸权必将暴露出外强中干的真实面貌。
Second, the financialization of the economy leads to deindustrialization, detaching virtual finance from real industry, thereby gradually hollowing out the foundation of the financial hegemony system. In the eyes of capitalists, the production process is merely a nuisance that must be endured in order to make money; countries that adopt the capitalist mode of production periodically suffer from a kind of delusion, attempting to make money without going through the production process as an intermediary. As the leading capitalist country, the United States is especially committed to turning this delusion into reality. Economic financialization has produced three trends in U.S. capital flows: first, capital shifts from the real economy to the virtual, moving from industrial production sectors with relatively high production costs and low profit margins to the financial sector with relatively low costs and high profit margins, causing the share of industry in the total economy to shrink and the share of finance to increase. Second, capital shifts from low-end industrial sectors with relatively low profit margins to high-tech industrial manufacturing sectors at the top of the value chain with higher profit margins. Third, because developing countries have relatively lower factor costs and prices for labor, production materials, etc., and thus greater profit margins, U.S. multinational corporations transfer labor-intensive, capital-intensive industries, as well as low-tech, high-consumption industries, to developing countries. This is an inevitable result of the spontaneous operation of the market economy, determined by the logic of capital and the law of the average rate of profit. This trend has had two effects on the United States. On the one hand, U.S. financial capital and high-tech groups have gained a dominant position over the real economy worldwide, occupying the top of the global industrial chain and value chain, and obtaining priority or even dominance in the distribution of surplus value. On the other hand, the transfer of mid- and low-end industries has caused industrial hollowing-out in the United States: the share of industrial manufacturing in its total economy has fallen sharply, and the daily consumer goods and industrial products needed by the population are mainly met through imports. Since the 1980s, with the gradual decline of manufacturing industries such as shipbuilding, steel, home appliances, and textiles, the U.S. economic system has shown an overall trend of virtualization. Therefore, although the United States still maintains a global leading position in high-tech fields such as semiconductors, aerospace, and biotechnology, because high-tech industries cannot do without the support of mid- and low-end manufacturing, and especially as its monopoly position in high-tech fields is gradually broken, the industrial foundation of its financial hegemony is overall moving toward decline.
第二,经济的金融化导致去工业化,虚拟金融与实体工业相脱离,致使金融霸权体系的根基逐渐虚化。在资本家看来,生产过程只是为了赚钱而必须干的倒霉事,采用资本主义生产方式的国家,都周期地患一种狂想病,企图不用生产过程作中介而赚到钱。作为头号资本主义国家,美国更是致力于将这种狂想变成现实。经济金融化导致美国的资本流动出现三种趋势:一是资本脱实入虚,从生产成本相对较高、利润率相对较低的工业生产行业转向成本相对较低、利润率相对较高的金融业,导致经济总量中工业占比缩小,金融业占比增大。二是资本从利润率相对较低的低端工业领域,向处于价值链顶端、利润率较高的高科技工业制造领域转移。三是由于发展中国家劳动力、生产材料等要素成本和价格相对更低,具有较多的利润空间,美国跨国公司将劳动密集型、资本密集型产业和低技术高消耗产业向发展中国家转移。这是市场经济自发作用的必然结果,是资本逻辑和平均利润率规律决定的。这种趋势对美国产生了两个方面的影响:一方面,美国的金融资本与高科技集团获得了主导全世界实体经济的优势地位,占据全世界产业链、价值链顶端,获得了剩余价值分配的优先权甚至主导权。另一方面,中低端工业产业转移造成了美国产业空心化,工业制造业在其经济总量中的比重大幅下降,民众的日常生活消费品和工业制造产品主要靠国外进口来满足。20世纪80年代以来,随着造船业、钢铁产业、家电、纺织等制造业的逐步衰退,美国的经济体系总体呈现出虚化趋势。因此,尽管美国在半导体、航空航天、生物技术等高科技领域仍保持全球领先地位,但由于高科技产业离不开中低端制造业的支撑,尤其是随着其在高科技领域的垄断地位逐渐被打破,使得其金融霸权的产业基础总体走向衰弱。
Third, the deindustrialization of the economy inevitably weakens the innovation capacity of the technological and military-industrial systems, thereby undermining the technological and military foundations on which the financial hegemony system relies. Industry is the foundation of technological innovation; without an industrial system, technological innovation cannot ultimately be sustained. On the one hand, technological innovation results can truly play their role only when applied in industry to provide more and better products and services for the market, thereby realizing the value of technological innovation and obtaining sufficient economic returns to provide financial support for further technological innovation. On the other hand, technological innovation results can be tested, improved, updated, and upgraded only through large-scale industrial application, promoting the spiral ascent of technological innovation. Deindustrialization leads to the imbalance and virtualization of the U.S. industrial system, which in turn places U.S. technological innovation results in the predicament of having “no place to be used,” inevitably weakening U.S. technological innovation capacity, ultimately affecting the development of the military system, weakening U.S. military hegemony, and thereby driving the collapse of the U.S. financial hegemony system.
第三,经济的去工业化,必然削弱科技和军事工业体系的创新能力,进而削弱了金融霸权体系所仰赖的科技和军事基础。产业是科技创新的基础,离开产业体系科技创新最终必然无法维持。一方面,科技创新成果只有应用于产业,为市场提供更多、更优质的产品和服务,才能真正发挥作用,最终实现科技创新的价值,才能获得足够的经济回报,为科技的进一步创新提供资金支持。另一方面,科技创新成果只有在大规模的产业应用过程中,才能得到检验,进而获得改进、更新和升级,促进科技创新的螺旋式上升。而去工业化导致美国产业体系的失衡和虚化,进而会使美国的科技创新成果面临“无用武之地”的窘境,必将削弱美国的科技创新能力,最终必将影响军事体系的发展,削弱美国军事霸权,从而推动美国金融霸权体系的崩塌。
Fourth, economic financialization exacerbates the polarization between rich and poor, plunging the economy, society, and politics into turmoil and crisis, rendering the domestic foundation of the financial hegemony system unstable. In the era of economic financialization, the rate of return on capital is far higher than the rate of return on labor, and the income of employees in the financial industry has increased substantially. From 1977 to 2007, the richest 10% of the U.S. population captured three-quarters of total national income growth, with the richest 1% alone capturing nearly 60% of national income growth, while the income growth rate of the bottom 90% was less than 0.5% per year. The “trickle-down effect” touted by the bourgeoisie did not appear, but the “Matthew effect” of wealth polarization became increasingly evident. The “too big to fail” nature of financial enterprises has further undermined the foundation of social justice: “The more a banking institution bears huge risks, the more it secretly enjoys public support. But banks that receive such implicit support are often more motivated to take greater risks. In good times, bank profits are distributed to shareholders and employees; in bad years, taxpayers pay for their losses.” The “Occupy Wall Street” movement was a collective rebellion by the masses against this unfair social relationship. The polarization between rich and poor has also increasingly plunged party politics into polarization and confrontation, with right-wing populism gradually rising. Survey data from the U.S. Pew Research Center show that over the past 20-plus years, mutual antipathy between members of the Democratic and Republican parties has surged dramatically, and members holding moderate positions on all issues have become extremely rare; since the 2008 international financial crisis, internal divisions within both parties have also become increasingly severe. Trump’s second rise to power is a political result and manifestation of the surge in U.S. populism.
第四,经济金融化加剧贫富分化,经济、社会、政治陷入动荡和危机,导致金融霸权体系的国内基础不稳固。在经济金融化时代,资本收益率远高于劳动收益率,金融行业从业人员的收入得到大幅度增加。1977年—2007年,美国最富有的10%人群占据了国民收入增长总额的3/4,其中最富有的1%人群独占了国民收入增长的近60%,而底部的90%人群的收入增长率每年不足0.5%。资产阶级宣扬的“涓滴效应”并未出现,贫富分化的“马太效应”却日益明显。金融企业“大而不能倒”更是破坏了社会正义的基础,“越是那些承受巨大风险的银行机构,越是在暗地里享受着来自公众的支持。但是得到这种隐性支持的银行往往更有动力去冒更大的风险。在经营良好的时期,银行的利润都分配给了股东和员工;经营不佳的年份,纳税人要为它们的损失埋单”。“占领华尔街”运动就是社会大众对这种不公平社会关系的集体反抗。贫富两极分化导致政党政治也越来越陷入极化和对峙状态,右翼民粹主义逐渐抬头。美国皮尤中心的调查数据显示,过去20余年间,民主、共和两党成员相互间的反感程度激增,在所有议题上持温和立场的成员已极其罕见,2008年国际金融危机以来两党内部的分裂也日趋严重。特朗普二度上台就是美国民粹主义高涨的政治结果和表现。
Fifth, only by using financial hegemony to continuously harvest other countries can the United States delay its own crisis and maintain its hegemonic status, which has led the United States to develop an addiction to financial hegemony. Therefore, once financial hegemony collapses, it will inevitably lead to the systemic disintegration of the entire U.S. hegemony. “So-called financial transaction business is nothing but a zero-sum game, producing basically no useful output for society.” Finance can facilitate the allocation and flow of capital among different entities, but it itself does not have the capacity to create social wealth. Marx believed: “The civilized victory of capital lies precisely in the fact that capital discovers and causes human labor to replace dead things as the source of wealth.” After deindustrialization, the wealth created by the United States’ remaining agriculture, high-tech industries, etc., is simply insufficient to maintain the high welfare of U.S. society, to sustain the expenditures of U.S. hegemony, or to maintain the U.S. superpower status. To ease domestic contradictions, satisfy the demand for capital accumulation, and maintain the operation of the hegemonic system, the United States can only embark on the path of financial colonization, carrying out financial exploitation and plunder of the entire world, using the wealth created by the people of other countries to meet the needs of U.S. society and the operation of its hegemony. This has formed a path dependence of the United States on financial hegemony as a mode of survival. Therefore, once financial hegemony is challenged and moves toward collapse, it will pull away the cornerstone of the U.S. hegemonic system, inevitably leading to its systemic disintegration.
第五,只有利用金融霸权不停收割其他国家才能延缓美国的危机、维持美国的霸主地位,这导致美国患上金融霸权依赖症,因此,一旦金融霸权崩塌,就必然导致美国整个霸权的系统性解体。“所谓的金融交易业务只不过是一场零和游戏,对社会而言基本没有带来任何有用的产出。”金融可以促进资本在不同主体之间的配置和流动,但其本身并不具备创造社会财富的能力。马克思认为:“资本的文明的胜利恰恰在于,资本发现并促使人的劳动代替死的物而成为财富的源泉。”。去工业化之后,美国仅存的农业、高科技产业等所创造的财富根本无法维持美国社会的高福利,无法维持美国霸权支出,无法维持美国的超级大国地位。为了缓和国内矛盾,满足资本增殖需求,维持霸权体系运行,美国只能走上金融殖民的道路,对全世界进行金融剥削和掠夺,以其他国家人民群众所创造的财富来满足美国社会和霸权运转的需要,这形成了生存方式上美国对金融霸权的路径依赖。因此,一旦金融霸权遭到挑战,走向崩塌,就会抽掉美国霸权体系的基石,必然导致其出现系统性的解体。
Sixth, using financial hegemony to unilaterally sanction other countries weakens U.S. sovereign credit, prompting other countries to no longer dare to trust the dollar and instead seek other, safer financial instruments and channels. If factors emerge that threaten or challenge U.S. financial hegemony, the United States will use every means to strike at the opponent. An important reason for the United States’ overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq was that Saddam proposed using the euro, rather than the dollar, to price and settle Iraq’s oil sales—a direct blow to the financial hegemony centered on the dollar. In February 2022, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States led its Western allies in imposing comprehensive and severe financial sanctions on Russia, sanctioning the monetary assets of Russian banks, enterprises, and individuals, freezing the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Russia, and cutting Russia off from the SWIFT system. These sanctions were unprecedented in international financial history, attempting to exclude the Russian economy from the entire world economic system and international monetary payment system, dealing a severe blow to the Russian economy. Yet these unprecedented financial sanctions have also awakened many countries, severely weakening the sovereign credit foundation of U.S. financial hegemony, prompting them to gradually see through the dollar illusion, because the sanctions imposed on Russia today could be imposed on them in the future.
第六,利用金融霸权单方面制裁他国,会削弱美国的主权信用,促使他国不敢再相信美元,转而寻求其他更为安全的金融工具和渠道。如果出现威胁和挑战美国金融霸权的因素,美国一定会用尽一切手段打击对方。美国推翻伊拉克萨达姆政权的一个重要原因,就是萨达姆提出要用欧元而非美元为伊拉克出售的石油标价结算,这正击中了以美元为核心的金融霸权的要害。2022年2月,俄乌冲突爆发之后,美国带领其西方盟友国家对俄罗斯实施了全方位、最严厉的金融制裁,对俄罗斯银行、企业和个人的货币资产实施制裁,冻结俄罗斯中央银行的国家外汇储备,对俄罗斯关闭SWIFT系统。这些制裁措施在国际金融史上前所未有,试图将俄罗斯经济排斥在整个世界经济体系和国际货币支付体系之外,对俄罗斯经济造成了严重打击。而这些史无前例的金融制裁措施也惊醒了很多国家,严重削弱了美国金融霸权的主权信用基础,促使它们逐渐看清了美元幻象,因为今天加诸俄罗斯的制裁措施将来也可能会加诸它们自身。
IV. International Actions to Break U.S. Financial Hegemony
四、破解美国金融霸权的国际行动
The privilege and hegemonic status of the US dollar is the symbol and hallmark of America’s financial hegemony, while de-dollarization is an important manifestation of countries around the world breaking this hegemony. So-called de-dollarization refers to the policy behavior whereby state actors or international organizations reduce or abandon the use of the US dollar in international economic activities such as international settlement, international payment, and international reserves, replacing it with other currencies. Currency is power in the pocket; the essence of de-dollarization is to strip away the privilege and hegemony of the US dollar, thereby resisting the oppression, exploitation, plunder, and control that American financial hegemony imposes on other countries, and safeguarding their own financial sovereignty, national security, and economic interests.
美元的特权与霸权地位是美国金融霸权的象征和标志,去美元化则是世界各国破解这一霸权的重要表现。所谓去美元化,是指国家行为体或国际组织在国际结算、国际支付、国际储备等国际经济活动中减少或放弃使用美元,转而以其他货币替代的政策行为。货币是装在口袋里的权力,去美元化的实质是去除美元的特权与霸权,从而反抗美国金融霸权对本国的压迫、剥削、掠夺和控制,维护本国金融主权、国家安全与经济利益。
First, diversifying international settlement and payment instruments to reduce dependence on the US dollar in foreign exchange reserves. Some countries have begun to replace the US dollar with other currencies in energy transactions, or even to abandon the US dollar entirely. For example, due to long-term US sanctions, countries such as Iran and Russia have substantially reduced or abandoned the use of the US dollar in oil trade. In 2023, the ten ASEAN member states issued a collective declaration on advancing regional payment connectivity and promoting local-currency transactions, promoting the use of local currencies in trade and investment. In the process of advancing the internationalization of the renminbi, China’s bilateral trade with Russia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries has also begun to use the renminbi or to increase the proportion of renminbi usage. Many countries have begun to increase their holdings of gold and non-US dollar currency reserves, reducing their US dollar foreign exchange reserves. Specific manifestations include: First, reducing holdings of US Treasury bonds. Data from the International Monetary Fund show that in the third quarter of 2025, the US dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92%, a 30-year low. In December 2025, China’s holdings of US Treasury securities stood at US$683.5 billion, the lowest level since 2008. By the end of 2023, Russia’s holdings of US Treasury securities had fallen from a peak of US$176.3 billion (October 2010) to US$0.31 billion, essentially clearing out US Treasuries. Second, repatriating gold stored in the United States and increasing domestic gold reserves. France, Germany, Poland, and many other countries have successively repatriated gold stored at the Federal Reserve. Central banks around the world have also been vigorously purchasing gold to increase their gold reserves. The de-dollarization wave is driving a sustained flow of global capital into precious metals; according to estimates by the World Gold Council, by the end of 2025 gold had surpassed US Treasuries to become the world’s largest reserve asset. Third, increasing reserves of other international currencies such as the euro and the renminbi. Many countries have redirected the international reserves they reduced from the US dollar toward the euro and the renminbi. The very birth of the euro was intended to carve out a share of the US dollar-dominated international monetary system. In 2017, the European Central Bank for the first time shifted foreign exchange reserves worth 500 million euros into renminbi-denominated assets. According to the *2025 Renminbi Internationalization Report* released by the People’s Bank of China, central banks in more than 80 countries and regions have included the renminbi in their foreign exchange reserves, making the renminbi the world’s fifth-largest reserve currency.
第一,实行国际结算和支付手段的多元化,降低外汇储备中对美元的依赖。一些国家在能源交易中开始以其他货币代替美元,甚至弃用美元。例如,由于长期受到美国制裁,伊朗、俄罗斯等国家在石油贸易中大幅度减少或弃用美元。2023年,东盟十国发表关于推进区域支付互联互通和促进本币交易的集体宣言,在贸易和投资中推广使用本币。在推动人民币国际化的进程中,中国与俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、沙特等国的双边贸易也开始使用人民币或增加使用人民币的比例。很多国家开始增持黄金及非美元币种储备,减少美元的外汇储备。具体表现为:一是减持美债。国际货币基金组织数据显示,2025年第三季度美元在全球外汇储备中的占比降至56.92%,创下30年来新低。2025年12月,中国持有的美国国债规模为6835亿美元,为2008年以来的最低水平。2023年末俄罗斯持有的美国国债金额已经从最高额的1763亿美元(2010年10月)降为0.31亿美元,基本上清空了美债。二是运回存放在美国的黄金,增加本国黄金储备。法国、德国、波兰等多国陆续运回存放在美联储的黄金。各国央行还大力购买黄金,增加黄金储备。去美元化浪潮正驱动全球资金持续涌向贵金属,据世界黄金协会估算,黄金在2025年末已超越美债成为全球第一大储备资产。三是增加欧元、人民币等其他国际货币储备。很多国家将减持的国际储备转向了欧元和人民币。欧元的诞生本身就是要在由美元主导的国际货币体系中分一杯羹。2017年,欧洲央行首次将价值5亿欧元的外汇储备转向人民币计价资产。根据中国人民银行发布的《2025年人民币国际化报告》,全球80多个国家和地区的央行将人民币纳入外汇储备,人民币是世界第五大储备货币。
Second, establishing independent international payment and settlement systems to reduce dependence on US-dominated financial infrastructure. Various countries are creating alternative bilateral and regional cross-border payment systems that use local currencies or non-US dollar currencies, striving to break free from dependence on the US dollar and its financial infrastructure. In Europe, the euro, supported by the SEPA payment system, has become an important competitor to the US dollar and its payment system. Since the US and Europe imposed sanctions on Russia in 2014, Russia began developing its own domestic version of the financial information transmission system (SPFS); by September 2022, a total of 440 entities worldwide had joined this system. At the same time, Russia also launched the Mir payment system, building its own national payment system to reduce dependence on Western financial services. In South America, countries of the Southern Common Market (Mercosur)—Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, and others—use the Local Currency Payment System (SML) to reduce transaction costs, facilitate exchange, and reduce dependence on US dollar payments. In 2022, the African Union and the African Export-Import Bank launched the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), which is expected to save Africa US$5 billion annually. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India launched the RuPay financial and payment service system in 2012 to promote the entry of domestic credit card systems into the global payment market. Since 2015, China has activated the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), providing fund clearing and settlement services for cross-border and offshore renminbi business of domestic and foreign financial institutions. As of the end of December 2025, the CIPS system had more than 1,700 participants, including 193 direct participants and 1,573 indirect participants, covering 124 countries and regions worldwide. In April 2026, the cross-border payment system jointly launched by the BRICS countries—the BRICSPay system—was officially launched, using local-currency settlement and advanced payment technology to optimize capital flows among member states, reduce dependence on the US dollar and other foreign exchange systems, and enhance regional economic cooperation and financial autonomy.
第二,建立自己独立的国际支付和结算系统,减少对美国主导的金融基础设施的依赖。各国创建使用本地货币或非美元货币的替代性双边和区域跨境支付系统,力图摆脱对美元及其金融基础设施的依赖。在欧洲,欧元以SEPA支付系统为支撑,成为与美元及其支付系统的重要竞争者。自从2014年美欧制裁俄罗斯开始,俄罗斯就着手开发了本土版金融信息传输系统(SPFS),到2022年9月全球共有440家实体加入该系统。同时,俄罗斯还推出米尔支付体系(Mir),打造本国支付系统,减少对西方金融服务的依赖。在南美洲,巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭、巴拉圭、玻利维亚等南方共同市场(Mercosur)国家使用本地货币支付系统(SML),以降低交易成本、便于兑换,并减少对美元支付的依赖。2022年,非洲联盟和非洲进出口银行推出泛非支付和结算系统(PAPSS),这将每年为非洲节省50亿美元。在亚洲,印度储备银行于2012年推出金融和支付服务系统RuPay以促进本土信用卡体系进入全球支付市场。2015年以来,中国启用了人民币跨境支付系统(CIPS),为境内外金融机构人民币跨境和离岸业务提供资金清算与结算服务。截至2025年12月末,CIPS系统共有1700多家参与者,其中,直接参与者193家,间接参与者1573家,覆盖全球124个国家和地区。2026年4月,由金砖国家联合推出的跨境支付系统,即金砖国家支付系统(BRICSPay)正式上线,通过本币结算和先进支付技术,优化成员国之间的资金流动,减少对美元等外汇体系的依赖,增强区域经济合作与金融自主权。
Third, actively seizing the opportunities presented by digital transformation to break the traditional order of American financial hegemony through digital finance. The digital transformation of finance is reshaping the world financial order, which both contains the possibility of reconstructing financial hegemony and presents opportunities to resist and dismantle financial hegemony, thereby reconstructing a more equal new financial order. First, the decentralized issuance logic of non-sovereign cryptocurrencies poses a challenge to the centralized issuance logic of the traditional US dollar hegemonic system. Through smart contracts and trustless protocols, the decentralized structure of non-sovereign cryptocurrencies encodes economic rules into immutable cryptographic algorithms. This decentralized distributed trust design, based on blockchain technology, means that currency transactions no longer rely on traditional governments or financial institutions to provide credit guarantees, thereby enabling circumvention of government and bank scrutiny and reducing transaction costs and fees. This decentralized currency issuance operates outside the monitoring of sovereign state central banks, posing a serious challenge to the financial hegemony that the United States exercises through its issuance of the US dollar; consequently, during his first term, Trump adopted a resolutely hostile attitude toward cryptocurrencies. Second, stablecoins pegged to non-US dollar currencies may weaken the international monetary function of the US dollar. Coins such as EURS and SEUR (pegged to the euro), TrueGBP (pegged to the British pound), and sJPY (pegged to the Japanese yen) create possibilities for de-dollarization. Coins such as sBTC (pegged to Bitcoin) and sXAU (pegged to gold) are stablecoins maintained through crypto-asset collateral and pegged to non-traditional fiat currencies; they are issued by the Synthetix protocol. Algorithmic stablecoins pegged to non-US dollar currencies (such as Ampleforth and Frax) are partially algorithmic and partially collateralized stablecoins that can be pegged to different assets according to their protocol settings. Finally, non-US central bank digital currencies can become a powerful tool for de-dollarization. Compared with traditional financial systems, central bank digital currencies, as a medium of exchange, have advantages in payment efficiency, financial inclusion, and cross-border transactions. For example, the SWIFT system may have a cross-border payment settlement delay of three to five days, whereas the clearing speed of China’s digital currency bridge is “measured in seconds.” In the China-Indonesia “Two Countries, Twin Parks” project, Industrial Bank used digital renminbi to complete the first cross-border payment; from order confirmation to fund arrival took only eight seconds, offering significant advantages in cost and timeliness. As the financial infrastructure system of central bank digital currencies becomes increasingly mature, it will inevitably impact the privilege of the US dollar and even America’s financial hegemonic position.
第三,积极利用数字化变革的机遇,以数字金融打破传统的美国金融霸权秩序。金融的数字化变革正在重塑世界金融秩序,这既蕴含着金融霸权重构的可能,也存在反抗和瓦解金融霸权进而重构更加平等的新金融秩序的机会。首先,非主权加密货币的去中心化发行逻辑对传统美元霸权体系的中心化发行逻辑构成了挑战。非主权加密货币中心化结构通过智能合约和去信任化协议,将经济规则编码为不可篡改的加密算法,这种基于区块链技术去中心化的分布式信任设计,使货币交易不再依靠传统的政府或金融机构提供信用担保,进而可以规避政府和银行的审查,减少交易成本和费用。这种去中心化的货币发行脱离主权国家银行的监控,给美国通过发行美元进而掌控的金融霸权带来了严重挑战,因此,特朗普第一任期曾对加密货币持坚决排斥态度。其次,与非美元挂钩的稳定币可能会削弱美元的国际货币功能。与欧元挂钩的EURS币和SEUR币,与英镑挂钩的TrueGBP币,与日元挂钩的sJPY币,则为去美元化创造了可能性。与比特币挂钩的sBTC币,与黄金挂钩的sXAU币,是通过加密资产抵押来维持与非传统法定货币挂钩的稳定币,它们是由Synthetix协议发行的。与非美元挂钩的算法稳定币(如Ampleforth和Frax)是部分算法、部分抵押的稳定币,可以根据其协议设置与不同资产挂钩。最后,非美国央行数字货币可成为去美元化的有力工具。相比传统的金融体系,央行数字货币作为交换媒介在支付效率、金融包容性和跨境交易等方面都更具优势。例如SWIFT体系可能存在3至5天跨境支付结算时延,而中国数字货币桥的清算速度“以秒计算”,在中国印尼“两国双园”项目中,兴业银行利用数字人民币完成首笔跨境支付,从订单确认到资金到账仅8秒,在成本和时效上具有显著优势。随着央行数字货币的金融基础设施体系的日益完善,必将冲击美元特权乃至美国的金融霸权地位。
Fourth, taking the Fourth Industrial Revolution as an opportunity, other countries, especially the major powers, must accumulate strength to gradually break the foundations of the US financial hegemony system. “The changes unseen in a century are accelerating, with the technological revolution and major-power competition intertwining, and the high-tech field has become the forefront and main battlefield of international competition, profoundly reshaping the global order and development landscape.” [7]7 This quotation is from a Chinese official document or speech, likely a Politburo study session or a major Party work report, emphasizing the strategic context of the current era. At present, the Fourth Industrial Revolution is unfolding in full swing. The technological revolution exerts a comprehensive and decisive influence on human social life and social relations, and technological competition will, to a large extent, determine the adjustment, development, and evolution of the international pattern and order. Countries around the world, especially a few major powers, are taking this new technological revolution as an opportunity to accumulate strength from various aspects, striving to form a balancing force that can constrain US financial hegemony. First, the technological revolution drives industrial transformation and upgrading, particularly strengthening the real economy and forming a powerful real economic force, thereby achieving “using the real to check the virtual.” [8]8 “Using the real to check the virtual” (以实制虚) is a Chinese strategic formulation meaning to use the strength of the real economy to counterbalance the speculative or hegemonic power of the financial (virtual) economy. China has long insisted on using science and technology to lead industrial upgrading, promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, developing and expanding strategic emerging industries, vigorously advancing advanced manufacturing, striving to master the core links of the industrial chain, building a stable supply chain ecosystem, and occupying the high end of the value chain. Ultimately, China not only successfully withstood the trade war, technology war, and financial war launched by the United States since 2018 but has also gradually reversed the situation, shifting from a passive to an active position in the Sino-US trade, technology, and financial competition. Second, the new technological revolution brings opportunities for emerging countries to transform their military and enhance their military strength, helping to balance and constrain US military hegemony, thereby weakening an important foundation of US financial hegemony. As technological innovation empowers the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligence in the military field, China’s military modernization level has continuously improved. China’s military strength is sufficient to achieve “using force to check force,” safeguarding the security and stability of China’s economy and society, and it is also a powerful counterattack against any attempt to achieve financial deterrence and hegemonic purposes through military threats. Finally, the basis of alliance relationships is interests. The interests between countries will change correspondingly with the evolution of the international pattern and international relations. The alliance system forms with common interests and will inevitably disintegrate with the differentiation or even opposition of those common interests. In recent years, the relationship between the United States and its allies has shifted from seamless intimacy to occasional rifts. The US and Europe have differences on issues such as the digital tax, China policy, energy security, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US-Israel-Iran war; US allies in the Middle East have also shown signs of wavering, with a clear trend of de-dollarization in the economic sphere, and the cornerstone of the petrodollar is loosening. The uneven distribution of interests caused by the alliance system inevitably leads to the oppression and exploitation of some countries, thereby incurring their dissatisfaction and even resistance. To maintain survival and development, these countries must necessarily seek more opportunities.
第四,以第四次工业革命为契机,其他国家尤其是主要强国要积蓄力量逐步打破美国金融霸权体系的基础。“世界百年未有之大变局加速演进,科技革命与大国博弈相互交织,高技术领域成为国际竞争最前沿和主战场,深刻重塑全球秩序和发展格局。”当前,第四次工业革命正如火如荼地进行,科技革命对人类社会生活和社会关系具有综合性和决定性的影响,科技竞争将在很大程度上决定着国际格局和秩序的调整及发展演变。世界各国尤其是少数大国以这次新科技革命为契机,正在从各个方面积累实力,力图形成可以制约美国金融霸权的平衡力量。首先,科技革命推动产业变革与升级,尤其能够壮大实体经济,形成强大的实体经济力量,进而实现“以实制虚”。中国长期坚持以科技引领产业升级,推动传统产业转型升级,发展壮大战略性新兴产业,大力推动先进制造业,努力掌握产业链核心环节、打造稳定的供应链生态、占据价值链高端地位。最终,中国不仅成功抵御了2018年以来美国发动的贸易战、科技战与金融战,还逐渐扭转局势,在中美贸易、科技和金融博弈中由被动转为主动。其次,新科技革命为新兴国家的军事变革和军事实力提升带来机遇,有助于平衡和制约美国的军事霸权,从而削弱美国金融霸权的重要根基。随着科技创新赋能军事领域的机械化、信息化与智能化融合发展,中国军事现代化水平不断提高。中国的军事实力足以实现“以武制武”,保卫中国经济社会的安全与稳定,同时也是对任何试图通过军事威胁达到金融威慑和霸权目的行径的有力回击。最后,盟友关系的基础是利益,国家之间的利益会随着国际格局和国际关系的演变而相应变化,盟友体系随共同利益而形成,也必然随共同利益的分化甚至对立而解体。近年来,美国与其盟友之间的关系已经由亲密无间到时有罅隙。美欧在数字税、对华政策、能源安全、俄乌冲突、美以伊战事等方面存在分歧;美国的中东盟友也出现动摇倾向,在经济领域呈现明显的去美元化趋势,石油美元的基石在松动。盟友体系导致的世界利益分配不均,必然造成对一些国家的压迫与剥削,进而招致其不满甚至反抗。这些国家为维持生存与发展,必然需要寻求更多的机会。
In the face of US financial hegemony, we have proposed the Belt and Road Initiative, promoted the building of a community with a shared future for mankind, steadily advanced the internationalization of the renminbi, built independent and self-reliant financial infrastructure, used technological innovation to raise the level of the industrial chain, and accelerated the modernization of the military and national defense. Only with a strong comprehensive national strength can we effectively respond to financial hegemony. The global actions against US financial hegemony constitute a historical process of gradually shaking its hegemonic system until it is ultimately and completely destroyed. However, we must also take seriously the warning raised by David Harvey: if US hegemony continues to weaken, the danger that it will turn to a coercive strategy far tougher than the 2003 invasion of Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s regime will greatly increase. [9]9 David Harvey is a prominent Western Marxist geographer and theorist. The reference is to his analysis of US imperialism and the potential for increasingly violent coercive measures as US hegemony declines. The current military strikes that the United States and Israel are carrying out against Iran in the Middle East have already confirmed that this warning is not unfounded.
面对美国的金融霸权,我们提出“一带一路”倡议,推动构建人类命运共同体,稳步推进人民币国际化,建设独立自主的金融基础设施,以科技创新提升产业链水平,加快军队和国防现代化。唯有自身综合国力的强大,才能有效应对金融霸权。全球反抗美国金融霸权的行动,是从逐步动摇其霸权体系直至最终彻底摧毁它的历史进程。但我们也应高度重视大卫·哈维(DavidHarvey)提出的警示:如果美国的霸权持续削弱,那么它转向采取远比当年出兵伊拉克推翻萨达姆政权时更为强硬的强制性战略的危险,将大大上升。目前美国与以色列正在中东对伊朗采取的军事打击,就已经印证了这个警示并非空穴来风。
Notes
- “Sheep-shearing” (剪羊毛) is a Chinese term for the practice by which the United States uses interest rate cycles to induce capital inflows and outflows, creating booms and busts in target economies and extracting wealth.
- The quotation is from Karl Marx, *Capital*, Volume 3, Chapter 27, discussing the role of credit in capitalist crises.
- The “Matthew effect” refers to the phenomenon described in the Gospel of Matthew (13:12) where “whoever has will be given more, and they will have an abundance; whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them,” used in social sciences to describe cumulative advantage and the widening of inequality.
- “Occupy Wall Street” was a protest movement that began in New York City’s Zuccotti Park on September 17, 2011, against economic inequality, corporate influence in politics, and the power of the financial sector, spreading to cities across the United States and worldwide.
- SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) is a global messaging network used by banks and financial institutions to securely transmit transaction information; being cut off from SWIFT severely hampers a country’s ability to conduct international financial transactions.
- The “Two Countries, Twin Parks” (两国双园) project refers to a bilateral cooperation initiative between China and Indonesia, establishing paired industrial parks in both countries to facilitate trade and investment.
- This quotation is from a Chinese official document or speech, likely a Politburo study session or a major Party work report, emphasizing the strategic context of the current era. ↩
- “Using the real to check the virtual” (以实制虚) is a Chinese strategic formulation meaning to use the strength of the real economy to counterbalance the speculative or hegemonic power of the financial (virtual) economy. ↩
- David Harvey is a prominent Western Marxist geographer and theorist. The reference is to his analysis of US imperialism and the potential for increasingly violent coercive measures as US hegemony declines. ↩