Strategic Choices Facing Current Economic Development

As the primary task of comprehensively building a modern socialist country, high-quality development has different strategic priorities at different times and under different contexts. Whether based on Tianjin or viewed from an overall perspective, the current high-quality development of China’s economy mainly faces the following strategic choices.

作为全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务，高质量发展在不同时间段、不同背景下的战略重点有所不同。无论立足天津，还是放眼全局，当前我国经济高质量发展主要面临以下几方面战略选择。

First, taking accelerating economic recovery as the strategic priority. Since the beginning of this year, epidemic prevention and control has transitioned smoothly, and China’s economy has entered a fast recovery channel. In planning high-quality development amid the economic recovery process, it is clearly necessary to place the strategic focus of promoting high-quality development on accelerating the economic recovery process, so as to consolidate the achievements of maintaining the recovery and improvement trend of economic operation and lay a solid foundation for high-quality development. The current economic recovery differs from economic recovery in past cyclical fluctuations. The triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakening expectations are intertwined, and cyclical contradictions, structural contradictions, and institutional contradictions are superimposed and mutually reflected. In a certain sense, the current economic recovery is not only more severe and complex than expected, but its duration is also uncertain. In this process, we must not simply copy the ideas and practices used to deal with past cyclical fluctuations. Instead, we must combine the new characteristics and new requirements of post-epidemic economic recovery, and on the basis of refined analysis, implement precise operations matched to the current economic recovery process with entirely new ideas.

一是以加快经济恢复为战略重点。今年以来，疫情防控平稳转段，我国经济步入快速恢复通道。在经济恢复进程中谋划高质量发展，显然要将推动高质量发展的战略重点放在加快经济恢复进程上，以保持经济运行恢复向好态势的成果，夯实高质量发展的基础。当下的经济恢复不同于以往周期性波动中的经济恢复。需求收缩、供给冲击和预期转弱三重压力相互交织，周期性矛盾、结构性矛盾和体制性矛盾相互叠加，互为映射。从一定意义上说，当下的经济恢复不仅严峻复杂程度高于预期，持续时间也具有不确定性。在此过程中，决不能简单搬用以往应对周期性波动的思路和做法，而要结合疫情之后经济恢复的新特点新要求，在精细化分析的基础上，以全新的思路，实施与当下经济恢复进程相匹配的精准式操作。

Second, taking the development of new quality productive forces as the strategic engine. Facing the new difficulties and new challenges currently confronting economic operation and the new requirements of high-quality development, the economic recovery process must undoubtedly be combined with shaping new drivers and new advantages for development, using the shaping of new drivers and new advantages to build new competitiveness and lasting momentum for economic recovery and high-quality development. In September this year, General Secretary Xi Jinping, when presiding over a symposium on promoting the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China in the New Era, put forward the entirely new concept of “new quality productive forces,” emphasizing “actively cultivating strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, advanced manufacturing, and electronic information, actively cultivating future industries, accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces, and enhancing new drivers of development.” This points the direction for us to shape new drivers and new advantages for development and form new economic growth points based on the current economic recovery process. The characteristic of new quality productive forces is “new,” and the key lies in “quality.” “New” originates from scientific and technological innovation, takes scientific and technological innovation as the engine and endogenous driving force, embodies the new requirements of the digital economy era, and represents the future direction of productive forces. Accelerating the economic recovery process and promoting high-quality economic development largely depends on whether we can quickly resolve the “bottleneck” dilemma [1]1 “Bottleneck” (卡脖子) is a Chinese political-economic idiom referring to critical technological or resource dependencies that leave a country vulnerable to external pressure or blockade. in important and key fields, and whether we can lead the development of strategic emerging industries and future industries by integrating scientific and technological innovation resources, accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces. In the current period and for a period to come, a very major task before us is to truly make innovation the primary driving force for development, focus on shaping new drivers and new advantages for development and identifying new economic growth points, and solidly take and steadily walk the path of high-quality economic development.

二是以发展新质生产力为战略引擎。面对当前经济运行面临的新困难新挑战以及高质量发展的新要求，经济恢复进程无疑要同塑造发展新动能新优势结合起来，以新动能和新优势的塑造为经济恢复和高质量发展构建新竞争力和持久动力。今年9月，习近平总书记主持召开新时代推动东北全面振兴座谈会时提出“新质生产力”这一全新概念，强调“积极培育新能源、新材料、先进制造、电子信息等战略性新兴产业，积极培育未来产业，加快形成新质生产力，增强发展新动能”。这为我们立足当下的经济恢复进程塑造发展新动能新优势、形成新的经济增长点指明了方向。新质生产力的特点是“新”，关键在“质”。“新”源自科技创新，以科技创新为引擎和内生动力，体现了数字经济时代的新要求，代表着未来生产力的发展方向。加快经济恢复进程、推动经济高质量发展，很大程度上取决于能否尽快破解我国在重要关键领域的“卡脖子”困境，能否通过整合科技创新资源引领发展战略性新兴产业和未来产业，加快形成新质生产力。在当下及未来一个时期，摆在我们面前的一个十分重大的任务就是真正把创新作为发展的第一动力，围绕塑造发展新动能新优势、找准新的经济增长点，扎实走好、走稳经济高质量发展之路。

Third, taking policy support and deepening reform as the strategic underpinning. Developing new quality productive forces is certainly inseparable from policy support, but more importantly, it requires institutional guarantees; we must adhere to a two-wheel drive. The economic recovery process over the past year shows that the impact of the triple pressures is changing, and the principal contradiction currently faced is the weakening of expectations. Regarding the development of new quality productive forces, the “bull’s nose” [2]2 “Bull’s nose” (牛鼻子) is a Chinese idiom meaning the key or crucial point that, once grasped, allows one to control an entire situation. that must be grasped and grasped well lies in strengthening confidence and stabilizing expectations; efforts must be focused on paving the way for the development of new quality productive forces by creating a good institutional and mechanism environment. At present, there are still many hard bones to chew in the reform of key areas, and improving market expectations and stimulating market vitality also face many challenges. Only by unswervingly deepening reform and opening up and striving to break through deep-seated institutional and mechanism obstacles can we continuously highlight the institutional advantages of socialism with Chinese characteristics, continuously enhance the driving force and vitality of socialist modernization, and better leverage the initiative, enthusiasm, and creativity of all parties.

三是以政策支持与深化改革为战略支撑。发展新质生产力固然离不开政策支持，但更为重要的是制度保障，必须坚持双轮驱动。近一年来的经济恢复进程表明，三重压力的影响在变化，当下所面临的主要矛盾是预期转弱。围绕发展新质生产力，应当牵住、牵好的“牛鼻子”就在于强信心、稳预期，要着力以良好的体制机制环境的营造为新质生产力的发展铺路搭桥。当前，重点领域改革还有不少硬骨头待啃，改善市场预期和激发市场活力也面临不少挑战。只有坚定不移深化改革开放，着力破除深层次体制机制障碍，才能不断彰显中国特色社会主义制度优势，不断增强社会主义现代化建设的动力和活力，更好发挥各方面积极性、主动性、创造性。

Online editor: Zhang Fujun

网络编辑：张福军