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On the Development Momentum of Modernization in a Super-Large Country

骆郁廷 刘鸿畅:论超大规模国家现代化发展之势

· · Sinicization of Marxism · World Socialism Studies, 2024, no. 6 · 39 min read

Chinese-path modernization is the modernization of a super-large country, which differs from the modernization of ordinary countries. The report of the 20th National Congress of the CPC pointed out: “Chinese-path modernization is the modernization of a huge population. Our country’s more than 1.4 billion people are entering modern society as a whole, a scale larger than the total population of all developed countries combined. The arduousness and complexity involved are unprecedented, and the development pathways and methods of advancement are bound to have their own characteristics.” China is a country where a super-large population as a whole is entering modern society, and it possesses a unique development momentum for the modernization of a super-large country. The development momentum of China’s modernization as a super-large country is the momentum of the transformation of the potential and kinetic energy of Chinese-path modernization into potential energy, and it is the trend and general trend of the development of Chinese-path modernization. This development momentum of modernization in a super-large country is mainly manifested as the momentum of latecomer catching up, the momentum of potential energy bursting forth, the momentum of scale development, the momentum of echelon advancement, and the momentum of inertial development.

中国式现代化是超大规模国家的现代化,不同于一般国家的现代化。党的二十大报告指出:“中国式现代化是人口规模巨大的现代化。我国十四亿多人口整体迈进现代化社会,规模超过现有发达国家人口的总和,艰巨性和复杂性前所未有,发展途径和推进方式也必然具有自己的特点。”中国是世界上超大规模人口整体迈进现代化社会的国家,具有超大规模国家现代化的独特发展之势。中国作为超大规模国家的现代化发展之势,是中国式现代化的潜能、动能向势能的转化之势,是中国式现代化发展的态势和大势。这种超大规模国家现代化的发展之势,主要体现为后发追赶之势、潜能迸发之势、规模发展之势、梯度推进之势和惯性发展之势。

I. The Momentum of Latecomer Catching Up in the Modernization of a Super-Large Country

一、超大规模国家现代化的后发追赶之势

China is the world’s largest developing country, which determines that Chinese-path modernization is a process in which a super-large country evolves from an underdeveloped state to a developed state, reflecting the momentum of an underdeveloped country anchoring itself to modern developed countries and catching up. In this process, China learns from and draws on the experiences and lessons of the first-mover modernized countries, avoids detours, overcomes weaknesses and promotes strengths, transforms the strong kinetic energy driving Chinese-path modernization into development potential energy, and in the course of striving to catch up, forms a momentum of overtaking first-mover countries on a curve and a momentum of catching up with and surpassing the largest developed country.

中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,决定了中国式现代化是超大规模国家由不发达状态向发达状态演进的过程,体现出不发达国家锚定现代发达国家的追赶之势。在这一过程中,中国学习借鉴先发现代化国家的经验与教训,少走弯路,避短扬长,把推动中国式现代化的强劲动能转化为发展势能,在奋起直追中形成了对先发国家的弯道超越之势和对最大发达国家的赶超之势。

(1) The Momentum of an Underdeveloped Country Anchoring Itself to Modern Developed Countries and Catching Up

(一)不发达国家锚定现代发达国家的追赶之势

Modernization is an inevitable trend in the development of human society and the only path for all countries to move from tradition to modernity. The process of modernization varies from country to country, and the degree of modernization also differs. “The country that is more developed industrially only shows, to the less developed, the image of its own future.” [1]1 Karl Marx, Capital, Volume 1, Preface to the First German Edition. Countries with a higher degree of modernization and more developed industry exert an attraction on countries with a lower degree of modernization and less developed industry, thus forming the momentum of underdeveloped countries benchmarking themselves against developed countries and catching up.

现代化是人类社会发展的必然趋势,是世界各国由传统走向现代的必由之路。各国现代化的进程各不相同,现代化的程度也不同,“工业较发达的国家向工业较不发达的国家所显示的,只是后者未来的景象”。现代化程度较高的、工业较发达的国家对现代化程度较低的、工业较不发达的国家具有吸引作用,从而形成了不发达国家向发达国家对标看齐的追赶之势。

Chinese-path modernization drives China to realize the historical transformation from an underdeveloped agricultural country to a developed industrial country, reflecting the momentum of an underdeveloped country anchoring itself to modern developed countries and catching up. When the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949, it was still a large agricultural country with an extremely high illiteracy rate, backward science and technology, an extremely weak industrial base, and a low level of economic development, making it a typical latecomer to modernization. Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out: “Our people should have a long-term plan, to strive within a few decades to change our country’s backwardness in economy, science, and culture, and rapidly reach the world’s advanced level.” [2]2 Mao Zedong, “The Chinese People Have Stood Up,” 1949. The Chinese Communists, with Comrade Mao Zedong as their main representative, deeply understood the backward state of China’s modernization development in the new era, accurately grasped the inevitable trend of modernization development, foresaw the future with a scientific strategic vision, led the future with a modern strategic layout, and created the future with solid common struggle, opening up a path of catching up in modernization from the old China of poverty and weakness to the new China of civilization and prosperity. In order to catch up with the level of modern developed countries, China actively learned from the Soviet Union and formulated and implemented “Five-Year Plans,” but did not copy the Soviet model. Instead, based on agriculture and focusing on industry, “under the condition of giving priority to the development of heavy industry, simultaneously develop industry and agriculture,” [3]3 Mao Zedong, “On the Correct Handling of Contradictions Among the People,” 1957. independently exploring a development path of the “Four Modernizations” [4]4 The “Four Modernizations” refers to the modernization of agriculture, industry, national defense, and science and technology, first proposed in the 1960s. suited to China’s actual conditions. In the 1960s, the Party led the people to concentrate their efforts on overcoming key core technologies, successfully developing the “two bombs and one satellite,” [5]5 “Two bombs and one satellite” refers to the atomic bomb, the hydrogen bomb, and the artificial satellite, developed by China in the 1960s and 1970s. which greatly enhanced China’s scientific, technological, and national defense strength, laying a solid foundation for the steady and long-term progress of the Chinese path to modernization. In the 1970s, the Party Central Committee discerned the trends and opportunities in the evolution of the world pattern toward a direction favorable to China’s peaceful development, emphasized that achieving socialist modernization was the greatest politics, and gradually formed and put forward the view of building a Chinese-style modernization. In June 1983, when meeting with foreign experts participating in the Beijing Science and Technology Policy Symposium, Comrade Deng Xiaoping pointed out: “The modernization we are engaged in is a Chinese-style modernization.” [6]6 Deng Xiaoping, “We Are Engaged in a Chinese-Style Modernization,” 1983. The Chinese Communists, with Comrade Deng Xiaoping as their main representative, shifted the Party’s central task to economic construction, proposed the goal of a moderately prosperous society (xiaokang shehui) as a modernization objective, “from 1981 to the end of this century, in twenty years, quadruple the GNP, achieve a moderately prosperous level, that is, an annual per capita GNP of 800 to 1,000 US dollars.” [7]7 Deng Xiaoping, “Building a Moderately Prosperous Society,” 1979. In 2021, China completed the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects as scheduled, achieved the doubling of per capita income as planned, and surpassed the world’s average per capita GDP level, “our country and nation have caught up in great strides.” [8]8 Xi Jinping, speech at the celebration of the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, 2021. The 20th National Congress of the CPC made comprehensive arrangements for Chinese-path modernization, and the people of all ethnic groups across the country are united and rallied around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, striving to push China forward from a major world country to a modernized world power.

中国式现代化推动中国实现由不发达农业国向发达工业国的历史转变,体现了不发达国家锚定现代发达国家的追赶之势。1949年新中国成立时,还是一个农业大国,文盲率极高,科学技术落后,工业基础极其薄弱,经济发展水平低,属于典型的现代化后发国家。毛泽东同志指出:“我国人民应该有一个远大的规划,要在几十年内,努力改变我国在经济上和科学文化上的落后状况,迅速达到世界上的先进水平。”以毛泽东同志为主要代表的中国共产党人深刻体察新中国现代化发展的落后状态,准确把握现代化发展的必然趋势,以科学的战略眼光预见未来,以现代的战略布局引领未来,以扎实的共同奋斗开创未来,开辟出一条从积贫积弱旧中国向文明富强新中国迈进的现代化赶超之路。为了赶上现代发达国家水平,中国积极向苏联学习,制定实行“五年计划”,但又不照搬苏联模式,而是以农业为基础,工业为重点,“在优先发展重工业的条件下,工农业同时并举”,独立自主探索符合中国实际的“四个现代化”的发展之路。20世纪60年代,党领导人民集中力量攻克关键核心技术,成功研制出“两弹一星”,极大增强了中国的科技和国防实力,为中国式现代化道路行稳致远奠定了坚实基础。20世纪70年代,党中央洞察世界格局向有利于中国和平发展的方向演变的态势和机遇,强调实现社会主义现代化是最大的政治,逐步形成并提出了建设中国式的现代化的观点。1983年6月,邓小平同志在会见参加北京科学技术政策讨论会的外籍专家时指出:“我们搞的现代化,是中国式的现代化。”以邓小平同志为主要代表的中国共产党人将党的中心任务转移到经济建设上来,提出了小康社会这一现代化的奋斗目标,“从一九八一年开始到本世纪末,花二十年的时间,翻两番,达到小康水平,就是年国民生产总值人均八百到一千美元”。2021年,中国如期全面建成小康社会,居民人均收入如期实现翻番,已超过世界人均GDP水平,“我们国家和民族大踏步赶了上来”。党的二十大对中国式现代化作出了全面部署,全国各族人民团结凝聚在以习近平同志为核心的党中央周围,奋力推进中国由世界大国向现代化世界强国迈进。

(2) The Momentum of Latecomer Modernizing Countries Overtaking First-Mover Countries on a Curve

(二)现代化后发国家对先发国家弯道超越之势

Modernization is an inevitable trend in social development and progress, but there is not only one path for humanity to reach modernization. The first-mover modernized countries have explored the path of modernization in a tortuous process, which can provide reference and lessons for latecomer countries in their modernization, thus offering the possibility for the latter to avoid “taking detours.”

现代化是社会发展进步的必然趋势,但人类通往现代化的道路并非只有一条。先发现代化国家在现代化进程中探索现代化的道路曲折,能够为后发国家现代化提供借鉴和参考,从而为其现代化避免“走弯路”提供了可能。

Since modern times, modernity has gradually unfolded in the “world history” scroll of Western capitalist production methods sweeping the globe. Capitalism “has acted as the unconscious tool of history,” [9]9 Karl Marx, “The British Rule in India,” 1853. drawing all countries into the historical process of modernization. The universal expansion of Western capital in the world and the enormous influence of the logic of capital on latecomer modernizing countries have caused the latter to fall into the myth of “modernization = Westernization” on a large scale. History has repeatedly proven that the bourgeoisie, “like all their predecessors, have not been able to go beyond the limits imposed upon them by their own epoch.” [10]10 Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, The Communist Manifesto, 1848. The Western modernization process, accompanied by the greedy profit-seeking nature of capital, has caused a series of “ills of modernity” such as ecological pollution, human alienation, material desire inflation, polarization, war and plunder, and colonial expansion. Many latecomer modernizing countries that blindly copied the Western modernization model have also fallen into the “trap” of Western modernization. The Communist Party of China, based on China’s actual conditions, deeply grasping China’s national conditions and recognizing the pros and cons of capitalist countries’ modernization, has blazed a new path of modernization that eliminates the drawbacks of Western modernization. It fully draws on all beneficial achievements of first-mover countries’ modernization while avoiding the old path of Western modernization characterized by pollution, exploitation, polarization, war, colonialism, and plunder. It has evaded various crises in the modernization process of Western countries, accumulated latecomer advantages in the process of avoiding “taking the old path” and “taking detours,” accelerated the momentum of modernization development, and established a strong potential energy for latecomer modernizing countries to overtake first-mover modernized countries on a curve.

近代以来,现代性在西方资本主义生产方式席卷全球的“世界历史”画卷中徐徐展开,资本主义“充当了历史的不自觉的工具”,将世界各国卷入现代化的历史进程。西方资本在世界范围内的普遍扩张以及资本逻辑对现代化后发国家的巨大影响,使得后者大范围陷入“现代化=西方化”的迷思。历史一再证明,资产阶级“同他们的一切先驱者一样,没有能够超出他们自己的时代使他们受到的限制”。西方现代化进程伴随着资本贪婪的逐利性,造成了生态污染、人的异化、物欲膨胀、两极分化、战争掠夺、殖民扩张等一系列“现代性之殇”,而盲目照抄照搬西方现代化模式的众多现代化后发国家也纷纷掉入西方现代化“陷阱”。中国共产党立足中国实际,在深刻把握中国国情、认清资本主义国家现代化利弊的基础上,走出了一条祛除西方现代化弊端的现代化新道路,既充分借鉴先发国家现代化的一切有益成果,又避免走西方现代化污染、压榨、分化、战争、殖民、掠夺的老路,规避了西方国家现代化进程中种种危机,在避免“走老路”“走弯路”的过程中积聚后发优势,加快了现代化的发展之势,奠定现代化后发国家弯道超越现代化先发国家的强大势能。

(3) The Momentum of the Largest Developing Country Catching Up with and Surpassing the Largest Developed Country

(三)最大发展中国家对最大发达国家赶超之势

As the world’s largest developing country, China has, since the founding of the People’s Republic, consistently taken the United States, the world’s largest developed country, as the target to catch up with and surpass. After more than 70 years, especially the development in the New Era, Chinese-path modernization has achieved remarkable results and realized “a major transcendence of the theory and practice of Western-style modernization.” [11]11 Xi Jinping, report to the 20th National Congress of the CPC, 2022.

中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,自新中国成立之初就一直把世界上最大的发达国家美国作为追赶超越的目标。经过70余年特别是新时代的发展,中国式现代化已经取得显著成就并实现了“对西方式现代化理论和实践的重大超越”。

After the founding of New China, the Party led the people in building a modern socialist country with grand goals and lofty aspirations, taking the world’s most developed countries as its targets to catch up with. In March 1955, Comrade Mao Zedong proposed, “We must basically industrialize the country within roughly three five-year plan periods, and complete the socialist transformation of agriculture, handicrafts, and capitalist industry and commerce, and within roughly several decades catch up with or surpass the world’s most powerful capitalist countries.” [1]1 Karl Marx, Capital, Volume 1, Preface to the First German Edition. In the early days of New China, Comrade Mao Zedong clearly set forth the modernization goal of catching up with and surpassing the United States. Thus, catching up with and surpassing the United States is a strategic conception of Chinese-path modernization, and this strategic conception has provided an inexhaustible source of strength for Chinese-path modernization. Since reform and opening up, China’s economy has developed rapidly and its national strength has grown swiftly. China already possesses an independent and complete national economic system and modern industrial system, with 41 major industrial categories, 207 medium categories, and 666 minor categories, making it the only country in the world with all industrial categories in the United Nations industrial classification. In 2010, China’s manufacturing value-added surpassed that of the United States for the first time, and has since remained the world’s largest for many consecutive years. China consciously adheres to and practices the modernization concept that “science and technology are the primary productive forces,” vigorously promotes scientific and technological modernization, and science and technology have developed rapidly. In 2023, the number of global top 100 science and technology innovation clusters in China ranked first in the world for the first time, and in some technological fields such as quantum technology, 5G communications, and optical fiber technology, China has approached or reached the world’s advanced level. China’s comprehensive national strength has grown rapidly, and its gross domestic product has ranked second in the world since 2010. In 2023, China’s GDP exceeded 126 trillion yuan. According to calculations from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) database, from 2013 to 2021, China’s average contribution rate to world economic growth reached 38.6%, exceeding the total contribution rate of 25.7% from the Group of Seven, making it the largest engine of world economic growth. China is the world’s largest developing country. Chinese-path modernization, as the modernization of a country with a huge population, has not only enhanced China’s comprehensive national strength and narrowed the modernization gap with the largest developed country, the United States, but is also changing the landscape of world modernization, demonstrating a strong momentum of catching up with and surpassing the largest capitalist developed country, the United States.

新中国成立以后,党领导人民建设社会主义现代化国家的目标宏伟、志向远大,把世界上最发达国家作为自己的追赶目标。1955年3月,毛泽东同志提出,“要在大约三个五年计划期间内使国家基本上工业化,并且要对农业、手工业和资本主义工商业完成社会主义改造,要在大约几十年内追上或赶过世界上最强大的资本主义国家”。毛泽东同志在新中国成立初期就明确提出了中国赶超美国的现代化目标。由此可见,赶超美国是中国式现代化的一个战略构想,而这一战略构想也为中国式现代化提供了源源不绝的力量源泉。改革开放以来,中国经济高速发展,国力迅速增强。中国已经拥有独立而完整的国民经济体系和现代工业体系,拥有41个工业大类、207个工业中类、666个工业小类,是全世界唯一拥有联合国产业分类当中全部工业门类的国家。2010年,中国制造业增加值首次超过美国,之后连续多年稳居世界第一。中国自觉坚持和践行“科学技术是第一生产力”的现代化理念,大力推进科技现代化,科学技术发展迅猛。2023年,中国拥有的全球百强科技创新集群数量首次跃居世界第一,在部分技术领域诸如量子技术、5G通讯、光纤技术等已接近或达到世界先进水平。中国综合国力迅速增强,国内生产总值自2010年始稳居世界第二位,2023年中国GDP超过126万亿元。据世界银行的世界发展指标(WDI)数据库测算,2013年至2021年,中国对世界经济增长的平均贡献率达到38.6%,超过七国集团25.7%的贡献率总和,成为世界经济增长的最大引擎。中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,中国式现代化作为人口规模巨大的现代化,不仅增强了中国的综合国力,缩小了同最大发达国家美国的现代化差距,而且正在改变世界现代化的版图,展现出赶超最大的资本主义发达国家美国的强劲势头。

II. The Momentum of Unleashed Potential in the Modernization of a Super-Large-Scale Country

二、超大规模国家现代化的潜能迸发之势

Chinese-path modernization, as the modernization of a super-large-scale country, contains enormous development potential. The further activation, exploitation, and development of China’s huge institutional potential, human potential, and spiritual potential, transforming potential into kinetic energy and kinetic energy into momentum, will inevitably unleash tremendous energy, forming an unstoppable momentum for Chinese-path modernization to advance the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

中国式现代化作为超大规模国家的现代化,蕴藏着巨大的发展潜能。中国巨大的制度潜能、人力潜能和精神潜能的进一步激活、开掘和发挥,把潜能转化为动能,把动能转化为势能,必将迸发出巨大的能量,形成中国式现代化推进中华民族伟大复兴的不可阻挡之势。

(A) The Momentum of Unleashed Institutional Potential in the Modernization of a Super-Large-Scale Country

(一)超大规模国家现代化的制度潜能迸发之势

Institutions are fundamental and long-term in nature. To comprehensively advance Chinese-path modernization, it is necessary to fully leverage the institutional advantages of socialism with Chinese characteristics, further activate the huge institutional potential, and empower Chinese-path modernization with institutional advantages.

制度是管根本、管长远的,全面推动中国式现代化,就要充分发挥中国特色社会主义制度优势,进一步激活巨大制度潜能,以制度优势赋能中国式现代化。

First, the advantages of the social system empower Chinese-path modernization. The centralized, unified leadership of the Party and the socialist system provide fundamental institutional guarantees for strengthening the strategic planning of Chinese-path modernization and leveraging the advantages of the whole-nation system [2]2 Mao Zedong, “The Chinese People Have Stood Up,” 1949. in Chinese-path modernization. China is a country with a large population and vast territory. The imbalance in resource distribution and economic development means that in advancing Chinese-path modernization, resources must be concentrated to tackle the principal contradictions of modernization development, using the resolution of major problems and difficulties as a guide to lead and promote the orderly development of various regions and industries. Under the whole-nation system, New China, starting from a poor and blank foundation, allocated limited resources to key industries and critical fields, initiated the construction of hundreds of large and medium-sized projects centered on the “156 Projects,” [3]3 Mao Zedong, “On the Correct Handling of Contradictions Among the People,” 1957. established an independent and relatively complete industrial system, achieved a series of major scientific and technological breakthroughs marked by the “two bombs, one satellite,” [4]4 The “Four Modernizations” refers to the modernization of agriculture, industry, national defense, and science and technology, first proposed in the 1960s. and laid the foundation for the development of Chinese-path modernization. Since reform and opening up, China’s modernization has accelerated. China “completed the industrialization process in a few decades that took developed countries several hundred years,” [5]5 “Two bombs and one satellite” refers to the atomic bomb, the hydrogen bomb, and the artificial satellite, developed by China in the 1960s and 1970s. creating a world-renowned miracle of modernization development. It can be said that without the leadership of the Communist Party of China and the full exertion of the superiority of the socialist system, there would be no great achievements in Chinese-path modernization.

第一,社会制度优势赋能中国式现代化。党的集中统一领导和社会主义制度,为加强中国式现代化的战略谋划、发挥中国式现代化的举国体制优势提供了根本的制度保障。中国是一个人口大国、地域大国,资源分布、经济发展的不平衡使得中国式现代化推进过程中必须集中资源攻克现代化发展的主要矛盾,以重大问题难题的破解为先导引领推动各地区、各行业有序发展。在举国体制下,一穷二白的新中国将有限的资源配置在重点行业和关键领域,启动建设“156项工程”为核心的数百个大中型项目,建立了独立的比较完整的工业体系,取得了“两弹一星”为标志的系列重大科技成果的突破,奠定了中国式现代化发展的基础。改革开放以来,中国的现代化加速发展。中国“用几十年时间走完了发达国家几百年走过的工业化历程”,创造了举世瞩目的现代化发展奇迹。可以说,没有中国共产党的领导和社会主义制度优越性的充分发挥,就没有中国式现代化的伟大成就。

Second, the advantages of the socialist market economy system empower Chinese-path modernization. Chinese-path modernization is modernization that takes the development of social productive forces as its fundamental task, and the market economy is an effective mechanism for developing productive forces. After reform and opening up, Comrade Deng Xiaoping creatively proposed the idea of developing a socialist market economy, emphasizing that “combining the planned economy with the market economy can further liberate productive forces and accelerate economic development.” [6]6 Deng Xiaoping, “We Are Engaged in a Chinese-Style Modernization,” 1983. The Party promoted the two-way coupling between the basic socialist system and the market economy mechanism, established the socialist market economy system, formed unique advantages in economic operation, effectively promoted the development of social productive forces and rapid economic growth, and greatly accelerated the historical process of Chinese-path modernization.

第二,社会主义市场经济体制优势赋能中国式现代化。中国式现代化是以发展社会生产力为根本任务的现代化,市场经济是发展生产力的有效机制。改革开放后,邓小平同志创造性提出发展社会主义市场经济的思想,强调“把计划经济和市场经济结合起来,就更能解放生产力,加速经济发展”。党推进社会主义基本制度与市场经济机制之间的双向耦合,建立了社会主义市场经济体制,形成了独特的经济运行优势,有力促进了社会生产力的发展和经济的突飞猛进,大大加快了中国式现代化的历史进程。

Third, leverage the institutional potential of combining the social system with the market economy. In the New Era, to further stimulate the development potential of modernization in a super-large-scale country and comprehensively advance Chinese-path modernization, it is necessary to combine the institutional advantage of the socialist system in concentrating resources to accomplish major tasks with the mechanism advantage of the market economy in stimulating competitive vitality, to combine the “visible hand” of state regulation with the “invisible hand” of market regulation, to achieve benign interaction and complementary advantages between the government and the market, to transform institutional advantages into economic efficiency, to give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, and to better play the role of the government, providing strong economic momentum for modernization development.

第三,发挥社会制度与市场经济相结合的制度潜能。新时代,进一步激发超大规模国家现代化的发展潜能,全面推进中国式现代化,必须把社会主义集中力量办大事的制度优势同市场经济激发竞争活力的机制优势相结合,把国家调控的“有形之手”与市场调节的“无形之手”结合起来,实现政府与市场的良性互动、优势互补,把制度优势转化为经济效能,充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,更好发挥政府作用,为现代化发展提供强劲的经济动能。

(B) The Momentum of Unleashed Human Potential in the Modernization of a Super-Large-Scale Country

(二)超大规模国家现代化的人力潜能迸发之势

Population is a fundamental factor in modernization, and a huge population is an important variable affecting Chinese-path modernization. The Communist Party of China transforms the pressure of a huge population into the advantage of a huge human resource, converts human potential into talent kinetic energy, and transforms talent kinetic energy into enormous momentum, unleashing the powerful energy that drives Chinese-path modernization forward triumphantly.

人口是现代化的基础性要素,规模巨大的人口是影响中国式现代化的重要变量。中国共产党把规模巨大的人口压力变为规模巨大的人力优势,将人力潜能转化为人才动能,将人才动能转化为巨大势能,迸发出中国式现代化凯歌行进的强大能量。

A huge population means immense pressure for food and survival, but also immense potential for human resources. On the eve of the founding of New China, then-US Secretary of State Dean Acheson “predicted” that “the problem of feeding the people is the first problem every Chinese government is bound to encounter. Up to now, no government has solved this problem.” However, this historic difficulty was solved under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. Comrade Mao Zedong viewed China’s super-large population dialectically, pointing out that “of all things in the world, people are the most precious. Under the leadership of the Communist Party, as long as there are people, any human miracle can be created,” and that “China’s large population is an extremely good thing.” He also proposed the method for solving the problem of feeding and surviving hundreds of millions of people: “this method is production.” The Communist Party of China abolished the feudal land ownership system, established a socialist system in which the people are the masters of the country, emphasized the people’s principal position and creative potential, united and led the people in self-reliance and hard work, vigorously developed grain production, solved the people’s food problem, guaranteed the people’s right to survival, and through the sustained development of large-scale cultural education, transformed population pressure into human and talent potential, laying a solid foundation for unleashing the human and talent potential of Chinese-path modernization. The historical starting point of Chinese-path modernization was very low; transforming China from a backward agricultural country into a modern industrial nation, and raising the scientific and cultural knowledge level of the working people, was a fundamental issue. In 1949, China’s national primary school enrollment rate was only 20%, and the illiteracy rate was as high as 80%. The Communist Party of China made eradicating illiteracy an important task of New China, launched nationwide literacy campaigns, and developed China’s basic education and higher education in a planned and step-by-step manner. Since reform and opening up, the Communist Party of China has placed even greater emphasis on the issue of talent, proposing that economic development depends on science and technology, the development of science and technology depends on talent, and the cultivation of talent depends on education. It regards talent cultivation as a major issue related to the success or failure of modernization, emphasizing the need to “improve the quality of education, raise the teaching level of science and culture,” and “cultivate talent for socialist construction.” Education has gained a strategic position of priority development, China’s nine-year compulsory education has been guaranteed, and higher education has shifted from elite education to mass education. In 2023, the gross enrollment rate of higher education exceeded 60%, the quality of higher education has continuously improved, cultivating hundreds of millions of high-level talents, providing a fundamental, strategic, and overall supporting role for Chinese-path modernization. Through the strategic, sustained, and systematic development of education, especially higher education, the Communist Party of China has gradually turned population pressure into human momentum and the demographic dividend into a talent dividend, forming a huge potential energy driving the development of Chinese-path modernization.

人口规模巨大意味着吃饭生存的压力巨大,也意味着人力资源的潜能巨大。新中国成立前夕,时任美国国务卿艾奇逊曾“预言”说,“人民的吃饭问题是每个中国政府必然碰到的第一个问题。一直到现在没有一个政府使这个问题得到了解决”。然而,这个历史性难题却在中国共产党的领导下得到了解决。毛泽东同志辩证看待中国的超大人口规模,指出“世间一切事物中,人是第一个可宝贵的。在共产党领导下,只要有了人,什么人间奇迹也可以造出来”,“中国人口众多是一件极大的好事”,并提出了解决数以亿计人们吃饭生存问题的方法,“这办法就是生产”。中国共产党废除了封建土地所有制,建立了人民当家作主的社会主义制度,重视人民的主体地位和创造潜能,团结带领人民自力更生、奋发图强,大力发展粮食生产,解决了人民的吃饭问题,保障了人民的生存权利,并通过持续开展大规模的文化教育,把人口压力变为人力人才潜力,为释放中国式现代化的人力人才潜能奠定了坚实基础。中国式现代化的历史起点很低,把中国从一个落后的农业国改造成一个现代化的工业国家,提高劳动者的科学文化知识水平是一个根本问题。1949年,中国全国小学入学率只有20%,文盲率高达80%。中国共产党把扫除文盲作为新中国的一项重要工作,开展了全国范围的扫盲活动,并有计划、有步骤地发展中国的基础教育和高等教育。改革开放以来,中国共产党更加重视人才问题,提出经济的发展靠科技,科技的发展靠人才,人才的培养靠教育,把人才培养视为关系现代化建设成败的重大问题,强调要“提高教育质量,提高科学文化的教学水平”,“为社会主义建设培养人才”,教育获得了优先发展的战略地位,中国的九年制义务教育得到了保障,高等教育由精英式教育转向大众化教育。2023年高等教育的毛入学率已逾60%,高等教育的质量不断提高,培养了数以亿计的高层次人才,为中国式现代化发挥了基础性、战略性、全局性的支撑作用。中国共产党通过战略性、持续性、系统性地发展教育尤其是高等教育,逐步使人口压力变为人力动力,人口红利变为人才红利,形成了推动中国式现代化发展的巨大势能。

In the New Era, although the pace of China’s population growth has slowed, and even a phenomenon of natural growth rate turning from positive to negative has appeared, the characteristic of a huge population scale will not change for a considerable period in the future. To this end, while taking measures to encourage population growth, China should further improve the quality of education, especially higher education, establish and improve a self-reliant and self-strengthening system for cultivating innovative talents. By vigorously cultivating innovative talents and tapping the potential of human and talent resources, making the large-scale, high-quality cultivation of innovative talents the most important strategic measure for building China into a modern socialist country, providing an inexhaustible supply of talent support for the great cause of China’s national rejuvenation and strength on the new journey of the New Era.

新时代,中国人口增长步伐虽然放慢,甚至出现了自然增长率由正转负的现象,但人口规模巨大的特点在未来较长时期内仍然不会改变。为此,中国应在采取措施鼓励人口增长的同时,进一步提高教育特别是高等教育发展的质量,建立完善自立自强的创新人才培养体系,通过大力培养创新人才,挖掘人力人才潜能,把大规模高质量培养创新人才作为中国现代化强国建设最重要的战略举措,为新时代新征程中国强国复兴的伟大事业提供源源不竭的人才支撑。

(III) The Momentum of Unleashing the Spiritual Potential of a Super-Large-Scale Country’s Modernization

(三)超大规模国家现代化的精神潜能迸发之势

Modernization ultimately depends on people to advance; people’s spiritual pursuits, spiritual state, and spiritual strength play an important role in promoting modernization. To comprehensively advance Chinese-path modernization, further liberate and develop the productive forces, especially new quality productive forces, it is necessary to further activate the huge spiritual potential, providing a continuous spiritual driving force for Chinese-path modernization.

现代化归根到底要靠人去推进,人的精神追求、精神状态和精神力量对于推进现代化具有重要作用。全面推动中国式现代化,进一步解放和发展生产力,尤其是新质生产力,就要进一步激活巨大精神潜能,为中国式现代化提供源源不断的精神动能。

The Chinese people harbor immense enthusiasm for mastering and changing their own destiny and advancing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through Chinese-path modernization. The Communist Party of China insists on integrating the basic tenets of Marxism with China’s specific realities and with the best of traditional Chinese culture, advancing the adaptation of Marxism to the Chinese context and the needs of the times, stimulating the immense enthusiasm latent in the people across the country, uniting and leading them in vigorously advancing the historical process of revolution, construction, reform, and national strengthening, ushering in the great leap from “standing up” and “becoming prosperous” to “becoming strong.” Along with the continuous development of adapting Marxism to the Chinese context and the needs of the times, “the Chinese people have moved from passivity to initiative in the spiritual realm” to an ever-increasing degree. The Party successfully “roused hundreds of millions of workers and peasants to work with one heart,” mobilizing the Chinese people to unite as one to resist foreign aggression, achieve national liberation, and create the prerequisite conditions for socialist modernization. After the founding of New China, hundreds of millions of Chinese people, who were slaves heavily oppressed and exploited by the “three great mountains” [18]18 The “three great mountains” (三座大山) is a classic Chinese Communist metaphor for imperialism, feudalism, and bureaucratic capitalism, which were seen as the oppressive forces weighing on the Chinese people before 1949., became the masters of the country. This tremendous transformation from slave to master greatly stimulated the enthusiasm and confidence of people of all ethnic groups across the country in building a modern socialist country, unleashing immense spiritual strength, and effectively promoting the development of Chinese-path modernization. Since reform and opening up, the Party Central Committee has insisted on proceeding from the actual conditions of Chinese-path modernization development, adhering to seeking truth from facts and emancipating the mind, fully mobilizing the enthusiasm, initiative, and creativity of the people, activating the huge potential of the people in advancing Chinese-path modernization, and greatly liberating and developing the social productive forces. On the new journey of the New Era, to comprehensively advance Chinese-path modernization, it is necessary to further rely on and mobilize the masses, integrate ideological and political work into the entire process of Chinese-path modernization, forge a strong spiritual force of self-reliance, self-confidence, and self-strengthening, stimulate the people’s historical initiative and spirit of unity and struggle in advancing Chinese-path modernization, enhance national cohesion, vigorously develop new quality productive forces, promote high-quality economic development, achieve more balanced and fuller development, and meet the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life through creative labor.

中国人民蕴藏着掌握和改变自己命运、以中国式现代化推进中华民族伟大复兴的巨大积极性。中国共产党坚持把马克思主义基本原理同中国具体实际相结合、同中华优秀传统文化相结合,推进马克思主义中国化时代化,激发全国人民蕴藏的极大积极性,团结带领全国人民奋力推进革命、建设、改革、强国的历史进程,迎来了从“站起来”“富起来”到“强起来”的伟大飞跃。伴随着马克思主义中国化时代化的不断发展,“中国人在精神上就由被动转入主动”的程度不断提升。党成功“唤起工农千百万,同心干”,动员中国人民万众一心抗击外侮,实现全国解放,为社会主义现代化创造了前提条件。新中国成立以后,亿万中国人民从受“三座大山”沉重压迫剥削的奴隶翻身成为国家的主人,这种由奴隶到主人的巨大转变极大激发了全国各族人民建设社会主义现代化国家的热情和信心,迸发出巨大的精神力量,有力推进了中国式现代化的发展。改革开放以来,党中央坚持从中国式现代化发展的实际出发,坚持实事求是、解放思想,充分调动人民群众的积极性、主动性和创造性,激活了人民群众推进中国式现代化的巨大潜能,极大地解放和发展了社会生产力。新时代新征程,全面推进中国式现代化,就要进一步依靠和发动人民群众,把思想政治工作融入中国式现代化全过程,铸强自立、自信、自强的精神力量,激发人民群众推进中国式现代化的历史主动精神和团结奋斗精神,增强民族凝聚力,大力发展新质生产力,推动经济高质量发展,实现更加平衡、更加充分的发展,以创造性劳动满足人民群众日益增长的美好生活需要。

III. The Momentum of Scale Development in a Super-Large-Scale Country’s Modernization

三、超大规模国家现代化的规模发展之势

China, as a super-large-scale country advancing the modernization process, faces unique difficulties but also possesses special advantages. Chinese-path modernization is bound to generate huge scale effects, forming a trend and advantage of scale development.

中国作为超大规模国家推进现代化进程,既面临独有难题,也具有特殊优势。中国式现代化势必产生巨大的规模效应,形成规模发展的态势和优势。

(I) The Momentum of a Huge Market Scale in a Super-Large-Scale Country’s Modernization

(一)超大规模国家现代化的市场规模巨大之势

Chinese-path modernization in a super-large-scale country means having a huge consumer population, immense consumption potential, and a super-large market scale. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out, “In today’s world, the scarcest resource is the market. Market resources are China’s huge advantage; we must fully utilize and leverage this advantage, and continuously consolidate and strengthen it.” China’s super-large market advantage lies in the following aspects.

超大规模国家的中国式现代化,意味着具有庞大消费人群、巨大消费潜力和超大市场规模。习近平总书记指出,“当今世界,最稀缺的资源是市场。市场资源是我国的巨大优势,必须充分利用和发挥这个优势,不断巩固和增强这个优势”。中国的超大规模市场优势在于以下几方面。

The market resource space is vast. At the end of 2023, China had a population of 1.41 billion, 860 million laborers, 930 million urban residents, and over 250 million people with a college education, possessing domestic market resources unmatched by other countries. In 2023, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 47 trillion yuan, firmly ranking as the world’s second-largest consumer market. Consumption has once again become the main driver of China’s economic growth; final consumption expenditure drove economic growth by 4.3 percentage points, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the previous year, contributing 82.5% to economic growth. The fundamental role of consumption has become more significant. Thus, the economies of scale effect of the super-large market can bring about a super-large total demand and strong momentum, supporting the stable growth of China’s modern industrial economy.

市场资源空间广阔。2023年年末,中国具有14.1亿人口,8.6亿劳动力,9.3亿城镇人口,具有大学文化程度人口超2.5亿人,具有其他国家无法比拟的国内市场资源。2023年,中国社会消费品零售总额超47万亿元,稳居全球第二大消费市场,消费重新成为中国经济增长的主动力,最终消费支出拉动经济增长4.3个百分点,比上年提高3.1个百分点,对经济增长的贡献率是82.5%,消费的基础性作用更加显著。由此可见,超大规模市场的规模经济效应可以带来超大规模需求总量和强劲动能,支撑中国现代产业经济的稳定增长。

The potential for domestic demand remains continuously strong. From the consumption perspective, China’s middle-income group currently exceeds 400 million people. With the improvement of consumption capacity, the enhancement of the consumption environment, and the follow-up of high-quality supply, residents’ consumption demand is always in a dynamic process of scale expansion and quality upgrading, with significant room for growth. From the investment perspective, there is still considerable room for improvement in China’s infrastructure and people’s livelihood sectors. Many central and western regions, especially border areas, have significant infrastructure backlogs. The investment demand for infrastructure construction in these areas remains substantial, which can stimulate more investment to drive growth.

内需潜力持续旺盛。从消费看,目前中国中等收入群体达4亿多人。随着消费能力的提升、消费环境的改善和优质供给的跟进,居民消费需求始终处在动态的规模扩张和品质升级过程之中,具有很大增长空间。从投资看,当前中国基础设施和民生领域仍存在较大改善空间,广大中西部地区尤其是边疆地区的基础设施欠账较多,这些地区基础设施建设的投资需求依然很大,能够激发更多投资促进增长的动力。

Providing space for industrial innovation. Generally speaking, the size of a market is directly proportional to its capacity to foster innovation. A super-large-scale domestic market can provide sufficient market conditions and iterative space for the development of new materials, new technologies, new industries, new products, and new business forms. It not only reduces the innovation costs of enterprises but also generates sufficient innovation profits and returns through the development of the new economy, thereby creating a virtuous cycle of innovation, leveraging the competitive advantages of a super-large scale, and better promoting China’s major technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading, and the modernization of the industrial and supply chains, thereby enhancing China’s international competitiveness.

提供产业创新空间。一般而言,市场规模与孕育创新的能力成正比。超大规模的国内市场可以为新材料、新技术、新行业、新产品、新业态的发展提供足够规模的市场条件和迭代空间,不仅可以摊薄企业创新成本,还能通过新经济的发展创造足够的创新利润收益,实现创新良性循环,发挥超大规模的竞争优势,更好地促进中国的重大技术创新、产业结构升级和产业链供应链的现代化,增强中国的国际竞争力。

Better connectivity between domestic and international markets. A super-large-scale market can not only support the domestic economic cycle, driving underdeveloped regions and rural areas in China to integrate into the domestic cycle and promoting coordinated regional development and integrated urban-rural development, but also, with the domestic cycle as the mainstay, build a new development pattern in which domestic and international cycles reinforce each other. “By attracting global resources and factors through the domestic cycle, we can better utilize both domestic and international markets and resources, enhance our capacity to allocate resources globally, and better secure the strategic initiative in open development,” thereby enhancing China’s international competitiveness.

国内国外更好联通。超大市场规模不仅可以支撑国内大循环,带动中国欠发达地区和乡村融入国内大循环,推进区域协调发展、城乡融合发展,更能以国内大循环为主体,构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,“以国内大循环吸引全球资源要素,更好利用国内国际两个市场两种资源,提高在全球配置资源能力,更好争取开放发展中的战略主动”,提升中国的国际竞争力。

(II) The momentum of strong economic resilience in the modernization of a super-large-scale country

(二)超大规模国家现代化的经济韧性强大之势

Economic resilience refers to the ability of an economy to effectively respond to internal and external disturbances, withstand risk shocks, and achieve sustainable development. “China’s economy has strong resilience, ample potential, and sufficient vitality.” The super-large scale of Chinese-path modernization endows China’s economy with the potential to withstand enormous storms, and the Party’s overall leadership transforms this potential into reality, forming a strong resilience that supports the long-term positive and sustained development of China’s economy.

所谓经济韧性,是指一个经济体有效应对内外干扰、抵御风险冲击,实现可持续发展的能力。“中国经济韧性强、潜力大、活力足。”中国式现代化的超大规模赋予了中国经济应对巨大风浪的可能,党的全面领导则将这种可能转化为现实,形成了一种支撑中国经济长期向好、持续发展的强大韧性。

The superior economic endowments of a super-large-scale country enable Chinese-path modernization to have a strong capacity to resist economic risks. China simultaneously possesses a super-large land scale, a super-large population scale, a super-large total amount of natural resources, and a super-large-scale independent and complete industrial economic system. The combination of these factors gives China a strong resilience advantage that small and medium-sized countries lack in coping with the impact of economic and social risks and effectively suppressing and reversing economic downturns. In general, the vast territory gives China a geographical advantage and strategic depth that most countries find difficult to match; the huge population promotes the formation of a super-large domestic market; the abundant natural resources provide a deep foundation for the long-term stable development of China’s economy; and the independent and complete super-large-scale industrial economic system lays a solid foundation for the independent innovation of Chinese-path modernization.

超大规模国家优越的经济禀赋使中国式现代化抵御经济风险能力强。中国同时具备超大国土规模、超大人口规模、超大自然资源总量和超大规模的独立而完善的工业经济体系,这些要素叠加使得中国具有中小国家所不具备的应对经济社会风险冲击、有效抑制和扭转经济下行的强韧性优势。总的来说,辽阔的疆土使中国具备了绝大多数国家难以比拟的地缘优势和战略纵深,庞大的人口规模促进了超大国内市场的形成,丰富的自然资源为中国经济的长期稳定发展提供了深厚底蕴,独立而完善的超大规模工业经济体系为中国式现代化的自主创新奠定了坚实基础。

The significant advantage of a super-large-scale country in concentrating resources to accomplish major tasks can effectively mobilize resources to resolve crises. Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, especially over the more than 40 years of reform and opening up, the sustained and stable development of China’s economy has benefited from the centralized and unified leadership of the Party and from the institutional advantages of socialism with Chinese characteristics. When hit by the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis, China, based on internal and external circumstances, fully leveraged the important role of macroeconomic regulation, promptly adjusted macroeconomic policies, rationally used a variety of policy tools, effectively mobilized and integrated economic resources, and made every effort to respond to the Asian and world financial crises. By seeking opportunities in crises, turning crises into opportunities, and transforming danger into safety, China effectively overcame the financial crises and further strengthened the resilience of its economic development.

超大规模国家集中力量办大事的显著优势能有效调动资源化解危机。新中国成立以来尤其是改革开放40多年来,中国经济的持续稳定发展得益于党的集中统一领导,得益于中国特色社会主义制度优势。在遭遇1998年亚洲金融危机和2008年全球金融危机冲击时,中国根据内外部形势,充分发挥宏观调控的重要作用,及时调整宏观经济政策,合理运用多种政策工具,有效调动整合经济资源,全力应对亚洲和世界金融危机,危中寻机、化危为机、转危为安,有效克服了金融危机,进一步增强了中国经济发展的韧性。

The strong economic strength of a super-large-scale country provides a powerful foundation for effectively resisting deglobalization. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized, “China’s economy has been deeply integrated into the world economy, with a relatively high degree of industrial linkage and interdependence with many countries around the world.” China actively participates in and promotes the process of economic globalization, which not only promotes China’s economic development but also contributes to the world’s economic development. The interdependence and positive interaction between the Chinese and world economies make both China and the world beneficiaries of economic globalization. However, in order to maintain hegemonism, power politics, and its own selfish interests, the United States has stirred up a wave of deglobalization, recklessly launching trade wars, technology wars, and financial wars against China, attempting to contain the development of China and the world. This is a retrogressive act against the tide of history. The strong economic strength of China as a super-large-scale country endows it with a powerful resilience to counter external suppression and containment, respond to external economic shocks, safeguard the process of economic globalization, and advance Chinese-path modernization against the current.

超大规模国家强大的经济实力为有效抵御逆全球化提供了强大底气。习近平总书记强调,“我国经济已经深度融入世界经济,同全球很多国家的产业关联和相互依赖程度都比较高”。中国积极参与和推动经济全球化进程,既促进了中国的经济发展,又为世界的经济发展作出了贡献。中国和世界经济的相互依存和良性互动,使中国和世界皆成为经济全球化的受益者。然而,美国为了维护霸权主义、强权政治、一己私利,掀起了一股逆全球化的浪潮,悍然发动针对中国的贸易战、科技战、金融战,企图遏制中国和世界的发展,这是一种逆历史潮流而动的倒行逆施。中国超大规模国家的强大经济实力,赋予了中国反制外部打压遏制、应对外部经济冲击、维护经济全球化进程、逆势推进中国式现代化的强大韧性。

(III) The momentum of ample room for maneuver in the modernization of a super-large-scale country

(三)超大规模国家现代化的回旋余地广大之势

The development of Chinese-path modernization features a super-large market scale, a complete range of industries, a diversified development pattern, and enormous economic space. “Ample room for maneuver” empowers Chinese-path modernization with the confidence to advance or retreat freely and the space for flexible development.

中国式现代化发展的市场规模超大、产业门类齐全、发展格局多元、经济空间巨大,“回旋余地广”赋能中国式现代化进退自如的底气和腾挪发展的空间。

The super-large-scale market provides economic potential for Chinese-path modernization. Chinese-path modernization has a domestic demand market of huge scale and strong driving force, which interacts with the international market, giving China the competitive advantage of both domestic and international markets, unlike some countries that are extremely dependent on the international market. “Under the current international situation full of uncertainty and instability, basing ourselves on the domestic market, relying on the advantages of the domestic large market, and fully tapping the potential of domestic demand are conducive to defusing the impact of external shocks and declining external demand, and also conducive to ensuring the basic normal operation of China’s economy and the overall stability of the social situation under extreme circumstances.” Relying on the advantages of a super-large-scale market, Chinese-path modernization, while tapping the potential of domestic demand to promote economic development, can also form a strong attraction for global high-end resource factors, making China a fertile ground for global capital investment, expanding the breadth, depth, and intensity of China’s global economic connections, and enhancing the room for maneuver to cope with external shocks.

超大规模市场为中国式现代化提供经济潜力。中国式现代化具有规模庞大、拉动力强的国内需求市场,并同国际市场相互联动,赋予了中国经济国内国际两个市场的竞争优势,而不像一些国家极度依赖国际市场。“在当前国际形势充满不稳定性不确定性的背景下,立足国内、依托国内大市场优势,充分挖掘内需潜力,有利于化解外部冲击和外需下降带来的影响,也有利于在极端情况下保证我国经济基本正常运行和社会大局总体稳定。”中国式现代化依托超大规模市场优势,在挖掘内需潜力推动经济发展的同时,还能形成对全球高端要素资源的强大吸引力,使中国成为全球资本的投资沃土,拓展中国经济的全球连接广度、深度与力度,增强应对外部冲击的回旋能力。

A complete range of industries provides room for maneuver for Chinese-path modernization. Modern industries determine national strength; “a modern industrial system is the material and technological foundation of a modern country.” Only by establishing a complete industrial system can a country ensure its survival and development. Unlike other developing countries, China has the world’s most complete and largest industrial system, with complete resource chains, industrial chains, and supply chains, and a strong capacity for self-circulation. Independent industrialization has endowed China with a solid material foundation accumulated through sustained and rapid development, strong industrial supporting capabilities, achievement transformation capabilities, and risk resistance capabilities. This means that even if some industries are affected by external factors, China can rely on related domestic industries to extricate itself from difficulties, or compensate by accelerating the development of industries in their growth phase, effectively offsetting the negative impact of external economic interference.

产业门类齐全为中国式现代化提供回旋余地。现代产业决定国家力量,“现代化产业体系是现代化国家的物质技术基础”,只有建立完整的产业体系才能保证国家的生存发展。不同于其他发展中国家,中国具有全球最完整、规模最大的工业体系,资源链、产业链、供应链完整,自我循环能力强。独立自主的工业化使得中国具有持续快速发展积累的雄厚物质基础,强大的产业配套能力、成果转化能力和抗击风险能力,使得中国即使有些产业受到外部影响,也能依托国内相关产业摆脱困境,或通过加快发展处在成长期的产业来弥补,有效对冲外部经济干扰的消极影响。

A diversified development pattern provides development space for Chinese-path modernization. In the long run, the modernization development of the entire China, especially the development of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, presents an intertwined and diversified development pattern. Currently, despite the influence of multiple domestic and international factors, based on the super-large-scale market, solid industrial foundation, and complete industrial system, China can rely on a diversified development pattern for modernization, fully utilize the interaction between the supply side and the demand side, tap the development potential of multiple industries, and, according to the laws and needs of industrial upgrading, better optimize the industrial structure, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and continuously expand the strategic room for maneuver of Chinese-path modernization.

多元发展格局为中国式现代化提供发展空间。长期来看,整个中国的现代化发展尤其是第一、第二、第三产业的发展呈现相互交织、多元发展的格局。当前,尽管受国内外多重因素影响,但是立足超大规模市场、坚实产业基础和完整产业体系,中国能够以多元发展格局为现代化依托,充分利用供给侧和需求侧之间的相互作用,挖掘多种产业的发展潜力,并根据产业升级的需要和规律,更好优化产业结构,加快构建新发展格局,不断扩大中国式现代化的战略回旋空间。

IV. The momentum of gradient advancement in the modernization of a super-large-scale country

四、超大规模国家现代化的梯度推进之势

The characteristics, paths, and methods of advancing modernization differ according to the size of a country. The super-large scale and complexity of contradictions inherent in Chinese-path modernization mean that it cannot advance comprehensively and evenly like a small country. Instead, it must inevitably adopt a method of advancement by gradients, levels, and stages, forming a momentum of gradient advancement and orderly development in Chinese-path modernization.

国家规模大小不同,推进现代化的特点、路径和方式也不相同。中国式现代化的超大规模性和矛盾复杂性,注定了中国式现代化不可能像小国一样全面均衡推进,而必然要采取一种分梯度、分层次、分阶段的推进方式,形成中国式现代化的梯度推进、有序发展之势。

(I) The overall momentum of gradient advancement in the modernization of a super-large-scale country

(一)超大规模国家现代化梯度推进的总体之势

Chinese-path modernization is the modernization of a super-large-scale country, which determines that China’s modernization cause cannot be achieved overnight like that of countries with smaller populations and better economic foundations. Instead, it is a process of staggered and layered advancement. Therefore, it is necessary to proceed step by step on the basis of a profound grasp of China’s national conditions, guide development according to circumstances, and promote the spiral ascent of Chinese-path modernization in stages and steps.

中国式现代化是超大规模国家现代化,这就决定了中国的现代化事业不可能像人口规模较小和经济基础较好的国家那样一蹴而就,而是一个错落有致、分层推进的过程。因此,要在深刻把握中国国情的基础上循序渐进,因势利导,分阶段、有步骤的梯度推进中国式现代化螺旋式上升。

In the early days of the founding of New China, Comrade Mao Zedong already put forward the grand vision of turning China into “a great industrialised country with a high degree of modern culture.” In 1956, the Eighth National Congress of the CPC formally established the modernisation goal of “transforming a backward agricultural China into an advanced industrialised China.” However, the impulse of the “Great Leap Forward,”[20]20 The "development differential" (发展位差) refers to the gap in development levels between different regions, which, when properly harnessed, can generate momentum for overall advancement. formed under the contrast between the good intention of rushing to complete modernisation and the extremely backward state of the productive forces at the time, seriously departed from China’s concrete reality and caused no small losses to China’s modernisation cause. History and practice have proven that only by proceeding from China’s national conditions and advancing Chinese-path modernisation in an orderly manner can the laws of modernisation development be followed. Comrade Mao Zedong and the Party Central Committee, based on the reality of China’s modernisation construction, drew lessons from the “Great Leap Forward,” deeply pondered the strategy for building socialist modernisation, and further perfected the strategic conception of gradually realising socialist modernisation with agriculture as the foundation, industry as the core, and science and technology as the engine. After reform and opening up, the Chinese Communists with Comrade Deng Xiaoping as their main representative proceeded from reality, deeply understood and grasped the long-term, arduous, and complex nature of China’s socialist modernisation, introduced the concept of a moderately prosperous society (小康) into modernisation, and made revisions and adjustments to the goals and strategic planning of modernisation. The report of the Thirteenth National Congress of the CPC expounded the modernisation strategic conception of “a strategic plan for China’s economic construction roughly divided into three steps.”[21]21 The "rural revitalization strategy" (乡村振兴战略) is a key national strategy first proposed at the 19th National Congress of the CPC in 2017, aimed at prioritizing the development of agriculture and rural areas to achieve comprehensive rural modernization. Entering the 21st century, the Party Central Committee, in light of China’s development reality, determined the strategic goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and a new “three-step” strategic deployment for advancing China’s modernisation. Entering the New Era, the 20th National Congress of the CPC comprehensively mapped out Chinese-path modernisation, proposed the “two-step” strategic arrangement for the New Era,[22]22 Xi Jinping, “Speech at the Symposium on Promoting the Rise of the Central Region,” May 21, 2019. and set the comprehensive building of a great modern socialist country as the grand vision. Chinese-path modernisation is a long-term process of transformation from an underdeveloped state to a developed state. The level and foundation of development vary across regions, and the steps for implementing the modernisation strategic deployment also differ. The eastern region has a better foundation, while the central and western regions have a weaker one. The Party Central Committee promptly made the strategic decision to open up the eastern coastal areas first, and then, on this basis, made the strategic decisions for the Great Western Development Strategy and the Rise of Central China. The eastern region opened up and developed first, then from east to west, driving the development of the central and western regions. The Great Western Development Strategy and the Rise of Central China, in turn, further promoted the development of the eastern coastal open areas, thus forming a unique situation in Chinese-path modernisation of sequential opening, gradient development, and mutual promotion from the east to the central and western regions. This gradient development momentum powerfully promoted Chinese-path modernisation and formed an important characteristic of Chinese-path modernisation advancing in waves. In the New Era, comprehensively advancing Chinese-path modernisation still requires adhering to the unity of the goal and process of modernisation, and gradually building a great modern socialist country in the historical process of advancing Chinese-path modernisation in a gradient manner.

新中国成立之初,毛泽东同志就提出了要把中国“建设成为一个工业化的具有高度现代文化程度的伟大的国家”的宏伟愿景。1956年,党的八大正式确立了“把一个落后的农业的中国改变成为一个先进的工业化的中国”的现代化奋斗目标。然而,急于建成现代化的良好愿望同当时生产力极端落后状态之间的反差之下形成的“大跃进”冲动,严重脱离了中国的具体实际,使得中国现代化事业蒙受了不小损失。历史与实践证明,只有坚持从中国的国情出发,有序推进中国式现代化,才符合现代化发展规律。毛泽东同志和党中央基于中国的现代化建设实际,汲取“大跃进”的教训,深入思考社会主义现代化的建设方略,进一步完善了以农业为基础、以工业为核心、以科技为引擎,逐步实现社会主义现代化的战略构想。改革开放后,以邓小平同志为主要代表的中国共产党人从实际出发,深刻认识和把握中国社会主义现代化的长期性、艰巨性和复杂性,把小康概念引入现代化,对现代化的奋斗目标和战略规划做了修正调整。党的十三大报告阐发了“我国经济建设的战略部署大体分三步走”的现代化战略设想。进入21世纪,党中央又结合中国的发展实际,确定了全面建设小康社会的战略目标和新的“三步走”推进中国现代化的战略部署。进入新时代,党的二十大对中国式现代化进行了全面擘画,提出了新时代“两步走”的战略安排,把全面建成社会主义现代化强国作为伟大愿景。中国式现代化是由不发达状态向发达状态转变的一个长期过程,各地发展的水平和基础不一样,落实现代化战略部署的步骤也不一样。东部的基础好一些,中西部的基础差一些,党中央及时作出了东部沿海地区先行开放的战略决策,紧接着又在此基础上作出了西部大开发和中部崛起的战略决策,东部开放先行发展,然后由东到西,带动中西部发展。西部大开发和中部崛起,又反过来进一步促进东部沿海开放地区的发展,从而形成了一个中国式现代化由东部到中西部依次开放、梯度发展、相互促进的特有态势。这一梯度发展之势,有力地促进了中国式现代化,形成了中国式现代化波浪式前进的重要特色。新时代,全面推进中国式现代化,仍然要坚持现代化的目标和过程相统一,在梯度推进中国式现代化的历史进程中,逐步建成社会主义现代化强国。

(II) The Momentum of Dynamic Competition in the Modernisation of a Super-Large-Scale Country

(二)超大规模国家现代化动态竞争的运行之势

The super-large-scale Chinese-path modernisation determines that the modernisation development pattern of China’s various regions is not static but is developed and reshaped through dynamic competition. The dynamic competition of Chinese-path modernisation has formed a development situation of catching up with and overtaking one another, effectively promoting the great strides of Chinese-path modernisation.

超大规模的中国式现代化,决定了中国各地区的现代化发展格局并非一成不变,而是在动态竞争中得到发展和重塑。中国式现代化的动态竞争,形成了你追我赶的发展态势,有力地促进了中国式现代化的大步前行。

Dynamic competition between urban and rural areas. Cities and villages are the two basic areas of human economic and social activity. In the process of modernisation, cities and villages need to form a state of benign dynamic competition. However, constrained by the urban-rural dual structure, urban and rural resources cannot flow rationally and be optimally allocated in dynamic competition, and urban and rural production factors cannot be exchanged equally, leading to weak momentum in rural modernisation development, with the level of rural modernisation clearly lagging behind that of urban areas. “In comprehensively building a modern socialist country, the most arduous and heaviest task remains in the countryside.” The level of rural modernisation determines the overall degree of a country’s modernisation. When urban modernisation develops, it will strengthen the feedback from cities to villages and from industry to agriculture, promoting agricultural modernisation. Agricultural modernisation will also narrow the gap between villages and cities and between agriculture and industry, providing further development momentum and foundational support for industrial and urban modernisation. The dynamic competition between urban and rural areas will effectively promote Chinese-path modernisation, gradually narrow the urban-rural gap, and solidly advance common prosperity.

城乡之间的动态竞争。城市和农村是人类经济社会活动的两个基本区域,城市和农村在现代化进程中需要形成一种良性动态竞争的状态。然而,受城乡二元结构制约,城乡资源不能在动态竞争中合理流动和优化配置,城乡生产要素不能平等交换,导致农村现代化发展乏力,农村现代化水平明显滞后于城镇。“全面建设社会主义现代化国家,最艰巨最繁重的任务仍然在农村。”农村的现代化水平决定着一个国家现代化的整体程度。城市的现代化发展了,会加强城市对乡村、工业对农业的反哺,促进农业现代化。而农业的现代化,也会缩小乡村同城市、农业同工业的差距,为工业现代化和城市现代化提供进一步的发展动力和基础支撑。城乡之间的动态竞争,会有力地促进中国式现代化,逐步缩小城乡差距,扎实推进共同富裕。

Dynamic competition between regions. For a long time, regional development differences in China have been evident. The economic and social development level of the eastern coastal areas is superior to that of the central and western inland regions, and the foundations for modernisation development differ across regions. “China has a vast territory, a large population, and the differences in natural

区域之间的动态竞争。长期以来,中国地区发展差异明显,东部沿海地区经济和社会发展水平要优于中西部内陆地区,不同区域现代化发展的基础不同。“我国幅员辽阔、人口众多,各地区自然资源禀赋差别之大在世界上是少有的,统筹区域发展从来都是一个重大问题。”在中国式现代化推进过程中,党中央深刻把握东中西部地区的资源禀赋差异,在东中西部地区的动态竞争中统筹调配现代化发展资源,并集中资源投入到重点地区,既保持了东部沿海地区在国际经济竞争中的有利地位,又促进了中西部地区的经济发展,以动态竞争之势推动东中西部地区的良性互动与发展。新时代,在动态竞争中进一步加强东中西部地区彼此相互联系、相互依存、相互补充、相互作用,特别是充分发挥东部地区的辐射和带动作用,提高现代化的整体水平,仍然是中国式现代化发展的重中之重。

(3) The Development Momentum of Modernization in a Super-Large-Scale Country Tending toward Balance

(三)超大规模国家现代化趋向平衡的发展之势

General Secretary Xi Jinping points out, "China has large regional disparities and uneven development; the modernization process cannot proceed in lockstep. Regions with the right conditions should be encouraged to take the lead in achieving modernization, and they should support and drive other regions to achieve modernization as well." The uneven development of Chinese-path modernization and the large regional disparities mean that transforming the development potential contained in the development differential formed by regional development differences into a powerful driving force for modernization development is the necessary path for Chinese-path modernization to move from unbalanced and inadequate development toward more balanced and more adequate development.

习近平总书记指出,“我国区域差异大、发展不平衡,现代化进程不可能齐步走,要鼓励有条件的地区率先实现现代化,支持带动其他地区实现现代化”。中国式现代化发展不平衡,区域差异大,将因各地区发展差异形成的发展位差蕴含的发展潜能转化为现代化发展的强劲动能,是中国式现代化由不平衡不充分发展走向更加平衡更加充分发展的必由之路。

Emphasis is placed on narrowing the urban-rural gap. "The greatest imbalance in China's development is the imbalance between urban and rural development, and the greatest inadequacy is the inadequacy of rural development." For a long time, the allocation of public resources and basic public services has tilted toward cities and towns, preventing rural areas and farmers from participating equally in the modernization process and sharing the fruits of modernization, resulting in a significant urban-rural gap. In 2023, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in China was 51,821 yuan, while that of rural residents was 21,691 yuan, giving an urban-rural income ratio of 2.39:1. The per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents was 32,994 yuan, and that of rural residents was 18,175 yuan, a consumption expenditure ratio of 1.82:1. In the New Era, comprehensively advancing Chinese-path modernization must be grounded in the current reality, deeply understand the laws governing the development of relations between industry and agriculture and between urban and rural areas, treat the modernization of agriculture and rural areas as a major task, persist in implementing the rural revitalization strategy, vigorously develop agriculture and rural areas, smooth the flow of factors between urban and rural areas, achieve integrated urban-rural development, further narrow the gaps between urban and rural areas in development, income, medical care, education, employment, and public health, and jointly promote Chinese-path modernization to a new level through comprehensive rural revitalization and high-quality urban-rural integration.

注重缩小城乡差距。“我国发展最大的不平衡是城乡发展不平衡,最大的不充分是农村发展不充分”。长期以来,公共资源配置和基本公共服务向城镇倾斜,农村、农民无法平等参与现代化进程、共享现代化成果,城乡差距明显。2023年,中国城镇居民人均可支配收入51821元,农村居民人均可支配收入21691元,城乡居民收入比为2.39∶1,城镇居民人均消费支出32994元,农村居民人均消费支出18175元,消费支出比为1.82∶1。新时代,全面推进中国式现代化必须立足当前实际,深刻认识工农城乡关系发展规律,把农业农村现代化作为一项重大任务来抓,坚持实施乡村振兴战略,大力发展农业农村,畅通城乡要素流动,实现城乡融合发展,进一步缩小城乡之间在发展、收入、医疗、教育、就业、卫生等方面的差距,以乡村的全面振兴和高质量城乡融合共同推动中国式现代化迈向新台阶。

Emphasis must be placed on narrowing regional disparities. China’s regional development exhibits enormous differences in levels; “it is not possible to simply demand that all regions reach the same level of economic development. Instead, each region should follow a path of rational division of labor and optimized development based on its own conditions.” [22]22 Xi Jinping, “Speech at the Symposium on Promoting the Rise of the Central Region,” May 21, 2019. Diversified development should endow Chinese-path modernization with immense vitality and creativity, enabling developed and underdeveloped regions, the eastern, central, western, and northeastern areas to interact and develop together. In regional interaction, development differences must be creatively transformed into development opportunities, promoting the orderly transfer of mature and surplus industries from the developed eastern coastal regions to the underdeveloped central and western regions. Optimizing the industrial layout should promote industrial upgrading and demonstrate the advantages of gradient development, thereby encouraging the central and western regions to catch up with the developed regions, further narrowing regional development gaps, achieving high-quality coordinated development in the modernization process, and jointly creating and sharing a happy and beautiful life.

注重缩小地区差距。中国区域发展层次存在巨大差异性,“不能简单要求各地区在经济发展上达到同一水平,而是要根据各地区的条件,走合理分工、优化发展的路子”。要以多样化发展赋予中国式现代化以巨大活力和创造力,使发达地区和欠发达地区、东中西部和东北地区相互联动,共同发展。在区域互动中要创造性地把发展差异转化为发展机会,促进成熟产业和过剩产业从东部沿海发达地区向中西部欠发达地区的有序转移,以产业布局优化促进产业提档升级,彰显梯度发展优势,从而促进中西部地区向发达地区看齐,进一步缩小区域发展差距,在现代化进程中实现高质量协同发展,共创共享幸福美好生活。

V. The Inertial Development Momentum of Modernization in a Super-Large-Scale Country

五、超大规模国家现代化的惯性发展之势

The modernization of a super-large-scale country exhibits an inertial development trend. The larger the country’s scale, the greater the impact of inertia on its modernization. Chinese-path modernization is the modernization of a super-large-scale country. In the modernization process, it is essential to attach great importance to the momentum of inertial development, continuously accumulate the inertial kinetic energy for benign development by following the trend, transform inertial kinetic energy into inertial potential energy, and propel the “aircraft carrier” of Chinese-path modernization to sail forward with the wind and break through the waves in the right direction.

超大规模国家的现代化存在一种惯性发展态势,国家规模越大,现代化发展受惯性的影响也越大。中国式现代化是超大规模国家现代化,在现代化进程中必须高度重视惯性发展之势,在顺势而为中不断积聚现代化良性发展的惯性动能,把惯性动能转化为惯性势能,推动中国式现代化的“航空母舰”沿着正确的方向扬帆远航,破浪前行。

(A) The Accumulation Momentum of Inertial Kinetic Energy in the Modernization of a Super-Large-Scale Country

(一)超大规模国家现代化的惯性动能积聚之势

Inertia is the inherent attribute of an object to maintain its state of motion. Applying the law of inertia to the social sphere, the larger a country’s scale, the greater the inertia of its modernization. China has a large population base, abundant total resources, a complex social structure, and an exceptionally large national scale. This makes the start of Chinese-path modernization difficult and its initial momentum slow. However, once it is set in motion, due to its enormous scale, the accumulated inertial kinetic energy is even greater. When kinetic energy is transformed into potential energy, Chinese-path modernization can accelerate its development momentum in the process of increasing inertial potential energy.

所谓惯性,是物体保持运动状态不变的固有属性。把惯性规律运用于社会领域,一个国家的规模越大,则现代化惯性越大。中国人口基数大、资源总量多、社会结构复杂,国家规模超大,这就使得中国式现代化开启时的起动不易、起势较慢。而一旦启动之后,因其规模巨大,积聚的惯性动能就更大,当动能转化为势能后,中国式现代化便能在惯性势能增大的过程中加快现代化发展之势。

In the early days of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the national economy was severely depressed, people’s livelihoods were destitute, and everything awaited reconstruction, facing an extremely grim situation and arduous tasks. The Party united and led the people of all ethnic groups to make every effort to restore the national economy. By the end of 1952, the output of major industrial and light industrial products had all exceeded historical peak levels. After the task of restoring the national economy was completed, the true exploration of Chinese-path modernization could begin. In June 1953, Comrade Mao Zedong clearly stated at a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, “The general line and general task of the Party during the transition period is to basically complete the industrialization of the country and the socialist transformation of agriculture, handicrafts, and capitalist industry and commerce within a period of ten to fifteen years or more.” [23]23 Mao Zedong, “The Party’s General Line for the Transition Period,” June 15, 1953. Realizing national industrialization meant realizing national modernization, while the “Three Great Transformations” [24]24 The “Three Great Transformations” refers to the socialist transformation of agriculture, handicrafts, and capitalist industry and commerce, carried out in China from 1953 to 1956. were to provide the fundamental institutional guarantee for the country’s industrial modernization. The Chinese people launched a construction upsurge with “industrialization as the main body and the Three Great Transformations as the two wings,” accumulating strong kinetic energy for accelerating the realization of the country’s socialist industrialization. After the basic completion of the socialist transformation, the Communist Party of China led the Chinese people to shift to comprehensive and large-scale socialist construction. Although this period encountered serious setbacks, it still achieved great accomplishments. The output of major industrial products such as crude oil, steel, and mechanical equipment grew enormously; a number of new industrial sectors, such as the electronics industry and petrochemical industry, were established; agricultural capital construction and technological transformation began on a large scale and gradually yielded results; the quality of education was significantly improved; and scientific and technological work also achieved relatively outstanding results. During this period, the Communist Party of China led the Chinese people in a great deal of pioneering exploration in economic and cultural construction, accumulating a material and technological foundation for Chinese-path modernization, reserving a backbone force of talent, and accumulating strong kinetic energy for modernization development. This provided a powerful inertial driving force for China’s socialist modernization to enter the “fast lane” of high-speed development after reform and opening up, forming the inertial development momentum of Chinese-path modernization.

新中国成立之初,国民经济严重衰退,民生凋敝,百废待兴,面临着极其严峻的形势和艰巨的任务。党团结带领全国人民,全力恢复国民经济。到1952年年底,主要工业产品和轻工业产品的产量均超过历史最高水平。在恢复国民经济的任务完成后,中国式现代化的真正探索才得以开始。1953年6月,毛泽东同志在中央政治局会议上明确提出,“党在过渡时期的总路线和总任务,是要在十年到十五年或者更多一些时间内,基本上完成国家工业化和对农业、手工业、资本主义工商业的社会主义改造”。实现国家工业化,就是要实现国家的现代化,而“三大改造”则是要为国家的工业现代化提供根本的制度保障。中国人民掀起了“以工业化为主体、三大改造为两翼”的建设热潮,为加快实现国家的社会主义工业化积聚了强大动能。社会主义改造基本完成后,中国共产党领导中国人民开始转入全面的大规模的社会主义建设。期间虽然遭到过严重挫折,但仍然取得了很大成就。原油、钢和机械设备等主要工业产品的产量都有巨大的增长,电子工业、石油化工等一批新兴工业部门建设了起来,农业的基本建设和技术改造开始大规模地展开并逐渐收到成效,教育质量得到显著提高,科学技术工作也有比较突出的成果。这一时期,中国共产党领导中国人民在经济文化建设方面作了大量的开创性探索,为中国式现代化发展积累了物质技术基础,储备了人才骨干力量,积聚了现代化发展的强大动能,为改革开放后中国社会主义现代化建设迈入高速发展的“快车道”提供了强大的惯性推动力量,形成了中国式现代化的惯性发展之势。

(B) The Release Momentum of Inertial Potential Energy in the Modernization of a Super-Large-Scale Country

(二)超大规模国家现代化的惯性势能释放之势

The key to releasing the inertial potential energy of modernization in a super-large-scale country is to formulate correct modernization strategies, properly handle the relationship among reform, development, and stability in the process of Chinese-path modernization, so that the intensity of reform, the speed of development, and the degree of social affordability are mutually compatible, thereby transforming the accumulated kinetic energy into powerful inertial potential energy that drives the stable operation of modernization development in a super-large-scale country.

超大规模国家现代化惯性势能释放的关键是制定正确的现代化战略,妥善处理好中国式现代化进程中改革、发展、稳定的关系,使改革力度、发展速度与社会可承受程度相适应,进而把积聚的动能转化成推动超大规模国家现代化发展稳定运行的强大惯性势能。

The potential energy of inertial development in the modernization of a super-large-scale country cannot be easily altered. Inertia represents the difficulty of changing an object’s state of motion; the greater the inertia, the harder it is to change easily. A small boat can turn around easily, but a large ship turns with difficulty. For the giant ship of modernization in a super-large-scale country, the most important thing is to set the right direction and steer steadily; the direction and speed of the modernization giant ship’s voyage cannot be easily changed. If it turns or changes course arbitrarily or even forcibly, or sharply reduces speed, it will not only fail to achieve the established goals of modernization but may also cause subversive damage to the existing achievements of modernization, or even interrupt the historical process of modernization. Since reform and opening up, and especially since the New Era, [25]25 The “New Era” refers to the period beginning with the 19th National Congress of the CPC in 2017, marking a new historical juncture for socialism with Chinese characteristics. adhering to economic construction as the central task and liberating and developing the productive forces has formed a powerful inertial potential energy for the development of Chinese-path modernization, driving Chinese-path modernization to achieve great accomplishments that have attracted worldwide attention, “realizing a historic leap from a state of relatively backward productive forces to becoming the world’s second-largest economy, and a historic leap in the people’s lives from insufficient food and clothing to an overall moderate prosperity and then to comprehensive moderate prosperity.” [26]26 “Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the Major Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party’s Centenary Struggle,” November 11, 2021. Looking back at the development process of Chinese-path modernization over more than 70 years, although local strategies in different periods have been adjusted, the overall strategy of comprehensively building a modern socialist country has remained unchanged for a long time, making Chinese-path modernization a process of relay development, inertial promotion, and steady progress from one generation to the next.

超大规模国家现代化惯性发展的势能无法轻易变更。惯性代表着物体运动状态改变的难易程度,惯性越大,越难以轻易改变。船小好掉头,船大掉头难。超大规模国家现代化巨轮的前进最重要的是把准方向把稳舵,不能轻易改变现代化巨轮航行的方向和速度。如果随意甚至强行掉头或转弯,猛降航速,不仅无法达到现代化的既定目标,还可能对现代化的已有成果造成颠覆性破坏,甚至打断现代化的历史进程。改革开放以来特别是新时代以来,坚持以经济建设为中心,解放和发展社会生产力,形成了中国式现代化发展的强大惯性势能,推动了中国式现代化取得世人瞩目的伟大成就,“实现了从生产力相对落后的状况到经济总量跃居世界第二的历史性突破,实现了人民生活从温饱不足到总体小康、奔向全面小康的历史性跨越”。回顾中国式现代化70多年来的发展历程,虽然不同时期的局部策略有所调整,但全面建设社会主义现代化国家的总体战略长期保持不变,使中国式现代化成为一代又一代人接力发展、惯性推动、稳步前进的过程。

The potential energy of inertial development in the modernization of a super-large-scale country must be released steadily. To comprehensively advance Chinese-path modernization, it is necessary to reform the economic base and superstructure that are incompatible and uncoordinated with the development of modern productive forces, and to innovate and improve the economic and institutional mechanisms. At the same time, social stability is the fundamental prerequisite for reform and development; reform and development must focus on maintaining long-term social stability. If the pace of reform is too large, it will exceed national conditions, deviate from reality, or even exceed the affordability of the entire society, affecting social stability and disrupting the release of modernization’s inertial potential energy. If the pace of reform is too small, it will lag behind the needs of productive forces development, suppress the release of modernization’s inertial potential energy, reduce the speed of modernization development, and prevent the expected goals of reform from being completed on schedule. Therefore, reform and opening up must always be conducive to the release of the inertial potential energy of Chinese-path modernization, conducive to the stable development of society, and conducive to the steady improvement of the level of modernization. On the new journey of the New Era, only by correctly understanding and handling the relationship among reform, development, and stability in the process of Chinese-path modernization, organically unifying the intensity of reform, the speed of development, and the degree of social affordability, and always maintaining the stable release of modernization’s inertial potential energy within a reasonable range, can the socialist modernized strong country for which the Party and the people have struggled for a long time be truly realized.

超大规模国家现代化惯性发展的势能要稳定释放。全面推进中国式现代化,就要改革与现代生产力发展不相适应、不相协调的经济基础、上层建筑,创新和完善经济体制机制。同时,社会稳定是改革与发展的根本前提,改革与发展要注重维护社会长期稳定。改革的步子迈大了,就会超越国情、脱离实际,甚至超出整个社会的可承受程度,影响社会稳定,破坏现代化惯性势能的释放;改革的步子迈小了,又会滞后生产力发展的需要,抑制现代化惯性势能的释放,降低现代化的发展速度,使改革的预期目标不能如期完成。因此,改革开放要始终有利于中国式现代化惯性势能的释放,有利于社会的稳定发展,有利于现代化程度的稳步提升。新时代新征程,只有正确认识并处理中国式现代化进程中改革、发展、稳定的关系,把改革力度、发展速度与社会可承受程度有机统一起来,始终保持现代化的惯性势能在合理区间稳定释放,党和人民为之长期奋斗的社会主义现代化强国才能臻于实现。

(C) The Regulation Momentum of Inertial Development in the Modernization of a Super-Large-Scale Country

(三)超大规模国家现代化的惯性发展调控之势

The overall development trend of Chinese-path modernization is good, but it also faces an unprecedentedly complex environment. It is necessary at all times to guard against possible “black swan” and “gray rhino” events [27]27 “Black swan” events are unpredictable, high-impact occurrences; “gray rhino” events are highly probable, obvious but neglected threats. and to avoid the dangerous icebergs hidden beneath the sea surface. This requires that, in the process of grasping the inertial development momentum of Chinese-path modernization, we must also discern and anticipate the various risks in the modernization process, strengthen the regulation of inertial development, continuously improve our ability to steer the modernization giant ship, and sail toward the victorious shore of national rejuvenation and the strengthening of the country while overcoming difficulties and dangers and resolving multiple risks.

中国式现代化的发展态势总体良好,但也面临着前所未有的复杂环境,时刻要防止可能出现的“黑天鹅”“灰犀牛”事件,避开海平面下隐而不见的危险冰山。这就要求我们在把握中国式现代化惯性发展之势的过程中,还要洞察和前瞻现代化进程中的种种风险,加强惯性发展的调控,不断提高现代化巨轮的驾驭能力,在克服艰难险阻、化解重重风险中驶向强国复兴的胜利彼岸。

Accelerate the promotion of economic structural transformation and upgrading. The national economic structure is the foundation on which the inertial momentum of modernization operates. To regulate the inertial development momentum of Chinese-path modernization in the New Era, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, build a modern industrial system, optimize the structure of modern industries, enhance core competitiveness through transformation and upgrading, and develop new quality productive forces. It is essential to consolidate the foundational position of the primary industry, maintain its steady growth, accelerate the upgrading of the secondary industry, achieve innovation-driven development, and deeply promote the continuous expansion of the tertiary industry’s scale, thereby continuously strengthening and acquiring new inertial momentum for economic development through structural optimization.

加快推动经济结构转型升级。国民经济结构是现代化惯性势能运行的基础。新时代调控中国式现代化的惯性发展之势,就要加快构建新发展格局,建设现代化产业体系,优化现代化产业结构,在转型升级中增强核心竞争力,发展新质生产力。要稳固第一产业基础地位,保持第一产业平稳增长,加快升级第二产业,实现创新驱动发展,深入推进第三产业发展规模不断壮大,以结构性优化不断增强和获得经济发展的新的惯性势能。

Accelerate the implementation of an innovation-driven development strategy. The operation of the inertial momentum of Chinese-path modernization is not cyclical repetition; rather, it requires innovation-driven impetus to continuously accumulate and form new inertial development momentum, propelling the sustained development of Chinese-path modernization. In the New Era, regulating the inertial development of Chinese-path modernization requires overcoming fixed mindsets, adhering to innovation-led development, accelerating the achievement of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening, winning the battle against key core technologies, accelerating the conquest of “bottleneck” technologies in important fields, accelerating the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into modern productive forces, continuously developing new quality productive forces through scientific and technological innovation, and promoting high-quality economic development.

加快实施创新驱动发展战略。中国式现代化惯性势能的运行并非周而复始,而是需要创新驱动,不断积聚和形成新的惯性发展势能,推动中国式现代化持续发展。新时代,调控中国式现代化惯性发展,就要克服思维定式,坚持以创新引领发展,加快实现高水平科技自立自强,打好关键核心技术攻坚战,加快攻克重要领域“卡脖子”技术,加快科技成果向现代生产力的转化,通过科技创新不断发展新质生产力,推动经济实现高质量发展。

Accelerate the exploration of pathways to achieve common prosperity for the entire people. The ultimate goal of the inertial development of Chinese-path modernization is to achieve the development objective of national rejuvenation and strength. It is necessary to unify the accumulation of inertial kinetic energy and the release of inertial potential energy toward the goal of realizing common prosperity for all the people, empowering development through inertial regulation, and forming a modernization development momentum of gradual common prosperity. In the New Era, it is necessary to coordinate the relationship between value creation and wealth distribution from the perspective of common prosperity, attaching importance both to the development of productive forces to create more wealth and to the further improvement of the income distribution system, valuing both material abundance and cultural-ethical enrichment, and continuously improving the social security system, thereby promoting substantive progress in common prosperity for all the people and better sharing in the fruits of a better life while jointly creating it.

加快探索全民共富实现路径。中国式现代化的惯性发展最终是为了实现强国复兴的发展目标,要把惯性动能的积聚和惯性势能的释放统一到实现全体人民共同富裕的目标上来,以惯性调控赋能发展,形成逐步共同富裕的现代化发展之势。新时代,要在共同富裕视阈下统筹价值创造与财富分配的关系,既重视生产力的发展以创造更多财富,又重视收入分配制度的进一步完善,既重视物质富足,又重视精神富有,不断健全社会保障体系,从而推动全体人民共同富裕取得实质进展,在共创美好生活中更好地共享美好生活。

(Author bios: Luo Yuting, Professor at the School of Marxism, Wuhan University, Chief Expert of the Central Marxist Theory Research and Construction Project, Vice President of the China Marx-Engels Research Association; Liu Hongchang, 2022-class doctoral student at the School of Marxism, Wuhan University)

(作者简介:骆郁廷,武汉大学马克思主义学院教授,中央马克思主义理论研究和建设工程首席专家,中国马克思恩格斯研究会副会长;刘鸿畅,武汉大学马克思主义学院2022级博士研究生)

(Project: Phased results of the National Social Science Fund Major Project “Research on the Construction of Marxist Ideological Discourse Power in the New Era” (22&ZD008))

(项目:国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代马克思主义意识形态话语权建设研究”(22&ZD008)的阶段性成果)

Online editor: Tongxin

网络编辑:同心

Notes

  1. Karl Marx, Capital, Volume 1, Preface to the First German Edition. ↩
  2. Mao Zedong, “The Chinese People Have Stood Up,” 1949. ↩
  3. Mao Zedong, “On the Correct Handling of Contradictions Among the People,” 1957. ↩
  4. The “Four Modernizations” refers to the modernization of agriculture, industry, national defense, and science and technology, first proposed in the 1960s. ↩
  5. “Two bombs and one satellite” refers to the atomic bomb, the hydrogen bomb, and the artificial satellite, developed by China in the 1960s and 1970s. ↩
  6. Deng Xiaoping, “We Are Engaged in a Chinese-Style Modernization,” 1983. ↩
  7. Deng Xiaoping, “Building a Moderately Prosperous Society,” 1979. ↩
  8. Xi Jinping, speech at the celebration of the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, 2021. ↩
  9. Karl Marx, “The British Rule in India,” 1853. ↩
  10. Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, The Communist Manifesto, 1848. ↩
  11. Xi Jinping, report to the 20th National Congress of the CPC, 2022. ↩
  12. Mao Zedong, “Speech at the National Conference of the Communist Party of China” (March 1955). The “three five-year plan periods” refer to the period from 1953 to 1967.
  13. The “whole-nation system” (举国体制) refers to the institutional mechanism for mobilizing and concentrating national resources to accomplish major strategic tasks.
  14. The “156 Projects” were a series of industrial projects undertaken with Soviet assistance in the 1950s, forming the core of China’s early industrialization.
  15. “Two bombs, one satellite” refers to China’s successful development of the atomic bomb (1964), the hydrogen bomb (1967), and the artificial satellite (1970).
  16. This phrasing is drawn from a widely cited summary of China’s industrialization speed.
  17. Deng Xiaoping, “Excerpts from Talks Given in Wuchang, Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Shanghai” (January–February 1992).
  18. The “three great mountains” (三座大山) is a classic Chinese Communist metaphor for imperialism, feudalism, and bureaucratic capitalism, which were seen as the oppressive forces weighing on the Chinese people before 1949. ↩
  19. The term “回旋余地广” (ample room for maneuver) is a standard phrase in Chinese political discourse describing the strategic flexibility afforded by a large economy.
  20. The "development differential" (发展位差) refers to the gap in development levels between different regions, which, when properly harnessed, can generate momentum for overall advancement. ↩
  21. The "rural revitalization strategy" (乡村振兴战略) is a key national strategy first proposed at the 19th National Congress of the CPC in 2017, aimed at prioritizing the development of agriculture and rural areas to achieve comprehensive rural modernization. ↩
  22. Xi Jinping, “Speech at the Symposium on Promoting the Rise of the Central Region,” May 21, 2019. ↩
  23. Mao Zedong, “The Party’s General Line for the Transition Period,” June 15, 1953. ↩
  24. The “Three Great Transformations” refers to the socialist transformation of agriculture, handicrafts, and capitalist industry and commerce, carried out in China from 1953 to 1956. ↩
  25. The “New Era” refers to the period beginning with the 19th National Congress of the CPC in 2017, marking a new historical juncture for socialism with Chinese characteristics. ↩
  26. “Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the Major Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party’s Centenary Struggle,” November 11, 2021. ↩
  27. “Black swan” events are unpredictable, high-impact occurrences; “gray rhino” events are highly probable, obvious but neglected threats. ↩
  28. “Bottleneck” technologies (卡脖子技术): A Chinese political and media term referring to key technologies in which foreign countries hold a monopoly or restrictive advantage, thereby “choking” China’s industrial development.