A Survey of Theoretical and Academic Viewpoints in 2024 – Economics Section

New quality productive forces received concentrated attention, with four main research dimensions comprehensively deepened.

新质生产力受到集中关注，四个主要研究维度全面深化

In 2024, the most discussed hot topic in Chinese economics circles was new quality productive forces. Researchers mainly conducted studies from the perspectives of the theoretical connotation, basic characteristics, realization paths, and measurement indicators of new quality productive forces.

2024年，中国经济学界关注最多的热点问题是新质生产力。研究者们主要从新质生产力的理论内涵、基本特征、实现路径和测度指标等方面展开研究。

In terms of theoretical connotation, scholars believe that new quality productive forces are a new type of high-level modernized productive forces, productive forces that conform to the requirements of the new development philosophy and high-quality development, and an inevitable choice for Chinese-path modernization. It embodies important innovations and developments in Marxist economics in terms of economic theory.

在理论内涵方面，学者们认为新质生产力是新的高水平的现代化生产力，是符合新发展理念和高质量发展要求的生产力，是中国式现代化的必然选择。它在经济理论上体现了对马克思主义经济学的重要创新和发展。

In terms of basic characteristics, scholars have summarized the features that distinguish new quality productive forces from traditional productive forces from different dimensions. First, they are led by scientific and technological innovation; second, they involve innovation in production technology, production methods, and production models; third, they deeply integrate digital technology with advanced manufacturing technology; fourth, they can comprehensively enhance total factor productivity.

在基本特征方面，学者们从不同维度总结了新质生产力区别于传统生产力的特征。一是以科技创新为主导，二是在生产技术、生产方式、生产模式方面有创新，三是将数字技术与先进制造技术深度融合，四是能够全面提升全要素生产率。

In terms of realization paths, scholars have provided policy recommendations from different angles. Innovation is the fundamental characteristic of new quality productive forces, so developing new quality productive forces first requires vigorously encouraging innovation; developing new quality productive forces must follow the laws of the socialist market economy, that is, based on the market playing a decisive role in resource allocation and the government playing its role better; the core of new quality productive forces lies in enhancing total factor productivity, and its carrier lies in building a modernized industrial system; it is necessary to adhere to the "Two Unswervinglys" [1]1 The "Two Unswervinglys" (两个毫不动摇) refers to the Party's policy of unswervingly consolidating and developing the public sector of the economy, and unswervingly encouraging, supporting, and guiding the development of the non-public sector. at the micro level to stimulate the vitality of various innovation entities; it is necessary to follow the laws of industrial structure evolution and gradually improve the industrial structure.

在实现路径方面，学者们从不同角度提供了政策建议。创新是新质生产力的根本特征，因此发展新质生产力首先要大力鼓励创新；发展新质生产力必须遵循社会主义市场经济运行规律，即以市场在资源配置中起决定性作用、更好发挥政府作用为基础；新质生产力的核心在于提升全要素生产率，其载体在于构建现代化产业体系；必须在微观层面坚持“两个毫不动摇”，激发各类创新主体活力；必须遵循产业结构演进的规律，逐步完善产业结构。

In terms of measurement indicators, some scholars have explored constructing core indicators for new quality productive forces. Some scholars believe that the elements of new quality productive forces consist of new-type laborers, new-type objects of labor, new-type means of labor, and new-type infrastructure. Other scholars define the connotation of new quality productive forces from the three dimensions of laborers, objects of labor, and means of production. Methodologically, the entropy method is commonly used to assign weights to each indicator. In terms of measurement results, scholars have all found that the level of new quality productive forces in various regions has generally grown rapidly in the New Era, but due to objective reasons such as resource endowments, the gap in the level of new quality productive forces between regions is relatively large.

在测度指标方面，一些学者探索了构建新质生产力的核心指标。有学者认为，新质生产力的要素由新型劳动者、新型劳动对象、新型劳动工具、新型基础设施等构成。也有学者从劳动者、劳动对象和生产资料三个维度对新质生产力的内涵进行界定。在方法上，通常都采取熵值法对各指标赋权。从测度结果上看，学者们均发现新时代各地区新质生产力水平总体上迅速增长，但由于资源禀赋等客观原因，地区之间的新质生产力水平差距较大。

In addition to studying new quality productive forces themselves, many scholars have also placed new quality productive forces within the framework of Chinese-path modernization for discussion, believing that, logically, realizing Chinese-path modernization requires building a modernized industrial system, and developing new quality productive forces is precisely the key to building a modernized industrial system. In terms of development momentum, Chinese-path modernization is at a critical moment of transitioning from old to new driving forces. To accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional driving forces and actively cultivate new driving forces, it is necessary to promote breakthrough and disruptive technological innovations and accelerate the formation of new quality productive forces.

除了研究新质生产力本身，很多学者还将新质生产力放在中国式现代化的框架下讨论，认为从逻辑上讲，实现中国式现代化要求构建现代化产业体系，而发展新质生产力正是构建现代化产业体系的关键。从发展动能上讲，中国式现代化正处于新旧动能转换的关键时刻。要加快传统动能改造提升，积极培育新动能，就需要推动突破性技术、颠覆性技术创新，加快形成新质生产力。

Supply chain resilience became a hot topic, with digital technology and institutional opening-up being tracked.

供应链韧性成为热门话题，数字技术和制度型开放受追踪

In the post-pandemic era, supply chain resilience has become a hot topic in economics and management studies. Some scholars used global supply chain data to assess the overseas supply chain resilience of Chinese listed companies. The research found that, in the face of trade policy shocks, Chinese companies achieved risk avoidance by shifting their supply chains to nearshore, domestic, and other European and American countries, while simultaneously adjusting their industrial scope to complete supply chain restructuring, thereby demonstrating strong supply chain resilience.

在后疫情时代，供应链韧性成为经济学和管理学关注的热门话题。一些学者利用全球供应链数据，评估了中国上市公司的海外供应链韧性。研究发现，面对贸易政策冲击，中国企业通过将供应链转移至近岸、本土以及其他欧美国家以实现风险规避，同时调整产业范围完成供应链重构，从而展示了较强的供应链韧性。

Multiple scholars found that digital technology helps enhance supply chain resilience. Supply chain digitalization enhances corporate supply chain resilience through channels such as reducing information asymmetry, improving product competitiveness, lowering supplier concentration, and improving internal control. In terms of specific technology applications, the use of artificial intelligence technology and cloud computing technology has the most obvious effect on improving supply chain resilience.

多位学者发现，数字技术有助于提升供应链韧性。供应链数字化通过减少信息不对称、提高产品竞争力、降低供应商集中度和改善内部控制等渠道，提升了企业的供应链韧性。在具体的技术应用方面，人工智能技术与云计算技术的运用对提升供应链韧性的作用最为明显。

Other scholars found that raising the level of institutional opening-up can significantly improve supply chain resilience. Empirical research shows that deepening trade agreements can improve the institutional environment, reduce the probability of global supply chain disruptions, and enhance supply chain resilience. In terms of specific trade policies, signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) would both reduce the probability of disruption in China's supply chains imported from member countries. Therefore, actively signing and joining high-standard trade agreements and building a first-class business environment will help enhance the resilience of China's supply chains.

还有学者发现，提高制度型开放水平能够显著提高供应链韧性。实证研究表明，提高贸易协定深度可改善制度环境，降低全球供应链断裂概率、增强供应链韧性。在具体贸易政策方面，签订《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）和加入《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）都将降低中国从成员国进口供应链的断裂概率。因此，积极签订和加入高标准贸易协定，构建一流的营商环境都将有助于增强中国供应链的韧性。

Climate policy is becoming increasingly important for economic development, and environmental protection concepts are becoming more effective in addressing climate risks.

气候政策对经济发展越发重要，环保理念应对气候风险越发有效

With the intensification of climate change, climate policy is playing an increasingly important role in China's economic system, while climate risks are also growing. Expert research points out that, at the micro level, climate policy uncertainty can induce corporate upgrading difficulties and suppress the improvement of corporate total factor productivity. The mechanism is that climate policy uncertainty crowds out real investment and green innovation investment, and crowds in financial investment, i.e., causing a "shift from real to virtual." [2]2 "Shift from real to virtual" (脱实向虚) is a Chinese economic term describing capital flowing away from the real economy (manufacturing, services) and into speculative financial or real estate sectors. Furthermore, climate risk exacerbates corporate tax avoidance behavior by increasing corporate operating risks and financing constraints. At the macro level, climate policy uncertainty affects the order of financial markets and further increases the volatility of financial market transaction prices. Additionally, investor climate risk perception exacerbates the risk contagion between climate policy uncertainty and financial markets. Other scholars have found that climate risk increases economic policy uncertainty and causes a rise in commodity prices, thereby triggering short-term cross-border capital outflows. In summary, climate change has significant impacts on macroeconomic and financial stability.

随着气候变化的加剧，气候政策在中国经济系统中发挥着越来越重要的作用，同时气候风险越来越大。专家研究指出，在微观层面，气候政策不确定性会诱发企业升级困境，抑制企业全要素生产率提升。机制是气候政策不确定性会挤出实体投资和绿色创新投资，挤入金融投资，即造成“脱实向虚”。此外，气候风险会通过提高企业的经营风险和融资约束加剧企业的避税行为。在宏观层面，气候政策不确定性会影响金融市场的秩序，并进一步增加金融市场交易价格的波动性。此外，投资者气候风险感知会加剧气候政策不确定性与金融市场的风险传染。还有学者发现，气候风险会提升经济政策不确定性和引起大宗商品价格上涨，从而引发短期跨境资本外流。总之，气候变化会对宏观经济与金融稳定产生重要影响。

The channels through which ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) promotes corporate green development include not only green technology innovation but also the transmission effect of the supply chain. Based on data from the supply chains of Chinese listed companies, multiple scholars have found that the ESG advantages of downstream customers can incentivize midstream enterprises to engage in green innovation. The realization mechanisms are that the customer's ESG concept strengthens the enterprise's green awareness, increases related commercial credit support, and generates spillover effects of green technology.

ESG（环境、社会和治理）促进企业绿色发展的渠道，除了绿色技术创新，还有供应链的传导效应。多位学者基于中国上市公司供应链的数据发现，下游客户的ESG优势可以激励中游企业进行绿色创新。实现机制是，客户的ESG理念会强化企业的绿色意识、加大相关的商业信贷支持，以及绿色技术的溢出效应。

(Authors: Fang Mingyue and Nie Huihua are respectively a professor at the School of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, and a professor at the School of Economics, Renmin University of China.)

（作者方明月、聂辉华分别为中国农业大学经管学院教授、中国人民大学经济学院教授）

Online Editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧