The Planning Wisdom of the Chinese Communists: A Long-Termist View of Economic and Social Development

The construction of Chinese-path modernization has achieved great accomplishments that have attracted worldwide attention. This “Chinese miracle” is not a “peak that flew in from nowhere” [1]1 A Chinese idiom meaning something that appears suddenly and without foundation, often used to deny that a phenomenon is accidental or imported.; rather, it fully embodies the long-termist view of economic and social development unique to China, namely the scientific formulation and successive implementation of five-year plans. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out, “Using medium- and long-term plans to guide economic and social development is an important way our Party governs and administers the country.” [2]2 Xi Jinping, “Explanatory Notes on the ‘CPC Central Committee Proposal on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035’,” October 26, 2020. Leading the people of the whole country in scientifically formulating and successively implementing five-year plans (programs), the CPC has powerfully driven economic and social development, enhanced comprehensive national strength, and improved the people’s living standards, creating the rare worldwide miracles of rapid economic development and long-term social stability. The just-concluded Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC [3]3 The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC was held in Beijing in October 2024. examined and adopted the “Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development.” [4]4 The 15th Five-Year Plan covers the period 2026–2030. Looking toward the period of the 15th Five-Year Plan, summarizing and refining the planning wisdom of the Chinese Communists holds important theoretical significance and practical value.

中国式现代化建设取得了举世瞩目的伟大成就，这一“中国奇迹”不是“飞来峰”，而是充分体现了科学制定和接续实施五年规划的长期主义这一中国特有的经济社会发展观。习近平总书记指出，“用中长期规划指导经济社会发展，是我们党治国理政的一种重要方式”。中国共产党带领全国人民科学制定和接续实施五年规划（计划），有力推动了经济社会发展、综合国力提升、人民生活改善，创造了世所罕见的经济快速发展奇迹和社会长期稳定奇迹。刚刚结束的党的二十届四中全会，审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。面向“十五五”时期，总结提炼中国共产党人的规划智慧，具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。

1. The Chinese Communists Have Answered the Question of What a Plan Is

1.中国共产党人回答了何谓规划的问题

China’s choice to use medium- and long-term plans to guide economic and social development is primarily based on its specific national conditions. At the time of the founding of New China, China’s industry and agriculture were largely at the stage of scattered “small-scale production” or even handicraft workshops, urgently requiring the state to “organize” them. Comrade Mao Zedong, as early as the 1950s, pointed out, “In about fifty to seventy-five years, that is, within the time of ten to fifteen five-year plans, it may be possible to build a powerful socialist country.” [5]5 Mao Zedong, “Speech at the Supreme State Conference,” January 25, 1956. The “Report on the First Five-Year Plan for the Development of the National Economy” stated: “The path to national industrialization can only be socialist industrialization. Only socialist industrialization can overcome the contradiction between our now advanced political power and backward economy, and transform a poor and weak China into a truly prosperous and strong China.” [6]6 The First Five-Year Plan (1953–1957) was the first medium-term plan in the history of the People’s Republic of China. The establishment of a relatively complete industrial system during this period is clear proof of the rationality of the planned model. After reform and opening up, China gradually established the direction of socialist market economy reform. Facing various drawbacks of spontaneous market regulation, as well as problems encountered in economic development such as extensive growth and environmental pollution, planning became a good remedy for these “market failure” issues. Through one five-year plan (program) after another, we have continuously promoted reforms in enterprise systems, pricing systems, and financial systems, cleared institutional obstacles to the development of the socialist market economy, resolved contradictions and problems such as irrational industrial structure, uncoordinated regional development, and low urbanization levels, found means and methods to achieve an organic combination of market mechanisms and macroeconomic regulation, and accelerate the transformation of the economic development model through an innovation-driven development strategy, and further proposed development goals such as completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and embarking on a new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country. [7]7 The goal of “completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects” (全面建成小康社会) was achieved by 2020; the “new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country” refers to the period from 2020 to the middle of the 21st century.

中国选择用中长期规划指导经济社会发展，主要是基于特定国情。新中国成立时，我国工农业基本处于分散的“小生产”甚至手工作坊阶段，急需国家出面“组织起来”。毛泽东同志早在20世纪50年代就指出，“大约在五十年到七十五年的时间内，就是十个五年计划到十五个五年计划的时间内，可能建成一个强大的社会主义国家”。《关于发展国民经济的第一个五年计划的报告》指出：“国家工业化的道路只能是社会主义的工业化。只有社会主义的工业化，才能克服我国现在先进的政权和落后的经济之间的矛盾，而把贫弱的中国变成真正富强的中国。”这一时期我国建立起比较完整的工业体系，就是计划模式合理性的明证。改革开放后，我国逐步确立社会主义市场经济改革方向，面对市场自发调节的种种弊端，以及经济发展中面临的如粗放型增长、环境污染等问题，规划成为解决这些“市场失灵”问题的良药。通过一个又一个五年规划（计划），我们持续推动企业体制、价格体制和金融体制等改革，扫除了社会主义市场经济发展的制度障碍，解决了产业结构不合理、地区发展不协调、城镇化水平低等矛盾问题，找到了实现市场机制和宏观调控有机结合、通过创新驱动发展战略加快转变经济发展方式等手段方法，更提出了全面建成小康社会、开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程等发展目标。

The historical experience of the Chinese Communists in scientifically formulating and successively implementing five-year plans (programs) answers the question of what a plan is: using medium- and long-term plans to guide economic and social development is an important way our Party governs and administers the country. A plan mainly has two dimensions: “seeing farther in terms of time, and seeing broader in terms of space.” [8]8 Xi Jinping, “Explanatory Notes on the ‘CPC Central Committee Proposal on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035’,” October 26, 2020. From the time dimension, the various tasks of national governance should be arranged reasonably according to priority order, with overall planning, grasping key and decisive factors, properly managing pace and progress, focusing on consolidating and expanding advantages, breaking through bottlenecks and blockages, and maintaining consistency of orientation with the overall goal. From the spatial dimension, it both focuses on comprehensively advancing economic construction, political construction, cultural construction, social construction, and ecological civilization construction, and highlights weak links and lagging areas, proposing feasible ideas and practical measures through concentrated research. Therefore, a plan aims to concentrate the power of the whole society to solve those fundamental and institutional problems that the market operation requires but cannot spontaneously resolve, such as industrial infrastructure construction, industrial structure adjustment, economic system reform, transformation of the growth model, and common prosperity, so as to ensure that the market and social operation better meet the needs of modernization and the people.

中国共产党人科学制定和接续实施五年规划（计划）的历史经验回答了何谓规划的问题：用中长期规划指导经济社会发展，是我们党治国理政的一种重要方式。规划主要有两个维度，“从时间上看得远一些，从空间上看得宽一些”。从时间维度看，国家治理的各项工作要按照轻重缓急的次序进行合理安排，要统筹谋划，抓住关键性、决定性因素，把握好节奏和进度，注重巩固拓展优势、突破瓶颈堵点，与整体目标保持取向一致性。从空间维度看，既着眼于全面推进经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设、生态文明建设等，又突出薄弱环节和滞后领域，通过集中攻关提出可行思路和务实举措。因此，规划旨在集中全社会的力量解决那些市场运行需要但又不能自发解决的工业基础建设、产业结构调整、经济体制改革、增长方式转变、共同富裕等基础性、制度性问题，以确保市场和社会运行更符合现代化建设和人民群众需要。

In overview, from the First Five-Year Plan to the 15th Five-Year Plan, the consistent theme has been to build China into a modern socialist country, and to ensure the high degree of unity between long-term development goals and phased tasks.

综观之，从第一个五年计划到第十五个五年规划，一以贯之的主题是把我国建设成为社会主义现代化国家，并确保长期发展目标与阶段性任务的高度统一。

2. The Chinese Communists Have Answered the Question of Why to Plan

2.中国共产党人回答了为什么要规划的问题

The idea of planning originates from the Marxist classical writers’ critique and remedy for the social disorder caused by the anarchic competition of capital. Engels pointed out, “When the people, in accordance with the nature of the productive forces as they are now understood, treat these productive forces accordingly, the social anarchy of production gives way to a social regulation of production according to the needs of society as a whole and of each individual.” [9]9 Friedrich Engels, Anti-Dühring, Part III: Socialism, Chapter II: Theoretical. In the context of large-scale socialized production, the anarchic state of production or management always exists objectively. Even the most perfect market mechanism has the problem of “market failure,” requiring the guidance and regulation of national planning. From the formulation and implementation of five-year plans (programs) since the founding of New China and their social functions, the Chinese Communists have three main reasons for the question of why to plan:

规划思想源自马克思主义经典作家对资本无序竞争造成社会失序的批判与救治。恩格斯指出，“当人们按照今天的生产力终于被认识了的本性来对待这种生产力的时候，社会的生产无政府状态就让位于按照社会总体和每个成员的需要对生产进行的社会的有计划的调节”。在社会化大生产的背景下，生产或管理的无政府状态总是客观存在的，即使最健全的市场机制也存在“市场失灵”的难题，需要国家规划的引领和调控。从新中国成立以来五年规划（计划）的制定和实施及其社会功能看，中国共产党人对于为什么要规划的问题主要有三个理由：

First, planning is the necessary path for the “take-off” of modernization in late-developing countries. When Mao Zedong and the first generation of New China’s leaders decided to learn from the Soviet Union’s planned system to implement five-year plans, the technological and economic conditions at the time were not only “poor and blank” [10]10 Mao Zedong’s phrase “poor and blank” (一穷二白) described China’s economic backwardness and cultural underdevelopment in the early years of the PRC. but also “a sheet of loose sand.” [11]11 A metaphor for a disorganized, ununited society, used by Mao Zedong to describe pre-1949 China. Under such social conditions, to “take off,” using the planned or socialist method of concentrating forces was almost the only choice.

第一，规划是后发国家现代化“起飞”的必由之路。当毛泽东等新中国第一代领导人决定借鉴苏联的计划体制搞五年计划时，当时的技术经济状况不仅“一穷二白”，而且“一片散沙”。在这种社会条件下“起飞”，用规划的或社会主义集中力量的方式几乎是不二选择。

Second, planning is conducive to solving the problem of “market failure.” Even in a highly developed market economy era, national planning is needed to play its proper governance function. Market mechanisms and national planning are not only complementary but also an organic whole that internalizes each other. The development of the socialist market economy is a dynamic process, in which a series of major problems related to the market mechanism will inevitably arise that need to be solved. For example, the 14th Five-Year Plan made targeted deployments for promoting domestic and international dual circulation, building a high-standard market system, strengthening national strategic scientific and technological forces, stimulating talent innovation vitality, and creating new advantages in the digital economy. [12]12 The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) was adopted in March 2021. This means that the deeper the development of the socialist market economy, the higher its requirements for national planning; using medium- and long-term development plans to guide economic and social development can both fully leverage the decisive role of the market in resource allocation and better play the role of the government.

第二，规划有利于解决“市场失灵”问题。即使在高度发达的市场经济时代，也需要国家规划发挥应有的治理功能，市场机制与国家规划不仅是互补的，而且是一个互为内化的有机整体。社会主义市场经济的发展是一个动态过程，在发展中必然会出现需要解决的一系列与市场机制有关的重大问题，比如，“十四五”规划针对促进国内国际双循环、建成高标准市场体系、强化国家战略科技力量、激发人才创新活力、打造数字经济新优势等进行了针对性部署。这就是说，社会主义市场经济发展越深入，它对国家规划的要求就越高；用中长期发展规划指导经济社会发展，既能充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用，又能更好发挥政府作用。

Third, planning can organically unify strategic goals with development policies and specific measures. Emphasizing planned social production is a basic principle of Marxism, especially socialism. The CPC is precisely a modern political party organization with strong integration and leadership capabilities, consistently playing the core leadership role of exercising overall leadership and coordinating all parties. During the First Five-Year Plan period, a complete industrial system was established through 156 projects; [13]13 The 156 projects were Soviet-aided industrial projects during the First Five-Year Plan period, forming the backbone of China’s heavy industry. during the Eighth Five-Year Plan period, the goal and basic framework of building a socialist market economy system were established; [14]14 The Eighth Five-Year Plan (1991–1995) was formulated after the 1992 Southern Tour speeches by Deng Xiaoping, which accelerated market-oriented reforms. the 14th Five-Year Plan proposed basing on the new development stage, implementing the new development philosophy, and building the new development pattern, embarking on a new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country. [15]15 The “new development stage, new development philosophy, new development pattern” (新发展阶段、新发展理念、新发展格局) is a policy framework introduced under Xi Jinping. Through the formulation and implementation of five-year plans (programs), our Party organically unifies strategic goals with development policies and specific measures, ensuring that the Party’s political ideals and struggle goals can be transformed into tangible development performance and a better life reality that satisfies the people.

第三，规划能够将战略目标与发展政策、具体举措有机统一起来。强调有计划的社会生产是马克思主义特别是社会主义的基本原理。中国共产党正是具备强大整合与引领能力的现代政党组织，始终发挥着总揽全局、协调各方的领导核心作用。“一五”计划期间通过156项工程建立完整的工业体系，“八五”计划期间确立了建设社会主义市场经济体制的目标和基本框架，“十四五”规划则提出立足新发展阶段、贯彻新发展理念、构建新发展格局，开启了全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程。通过五年规划（计划）的制定和实施，我们党将战略目标与发展政策、具体举措有机统一起来，确保党的政治理想和奋斗目标能够转化为实实在在的发展绩效和人民群众满意的美好生活现实。

3. The Chinese Communists Have Answered the Question of How to Formulate and Implement Plans

3.中国共产党人回答了如何制定和实施规划的问题

The successful experience of scientifically formulating and successively implementing five-year plans (programs) highlights the “Chinese wisdom” and “Chinese approach” of the Chinese Communists in governing and administering the country, and also answers the major practical question of how to formulate and implement plans.

科学制定和接续实施五年规划（计划）的成功经验，彰显了中国共产党人治国理政的“中国智慧”“中国方案”，也回答了如何制定和实施规划的重大实践性问题。

First, adhere to the fundamental political stance of being people-centered. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out, “In planning economic and social development for the 14th Five-Year Plan period, we must not forget our original aspiration, take benefiting the people as the fundamental value orientation, persist in safeguarding and improving people’s livelihoods through development, and steadily promote common prosperity.” The people’s aspiration for a better life is our goal. The five-year plan involves all aspects of economic and social development and is closely related to the production and daily life of the people. Both the formulation and implementation of the plan must adhere to development for the people, development relying on the people, and development achievements shared by the people, so that the people have a tangible sense of gain, happiness, and security.

第一，坚持以人民为中心的根本政治立场。习近平总书记指出，“谋划‘十五五’时期经济社会发展，要不忘初心，把造福人民作为根本价值取向，坚持在发展中保障和改善民生，稳步推动共同富裕”。人民对美好生活的向往就是我们的奋斗目标，五年规划涉及经济社会发展方方面面，同人民群众生产生活息息相关。规划的制定及实施都必须坚持发展为了人民、发展依靠人民、发展成果由人民共享，让人民群众有切实的获得感、幸福感、安全感。

Second, emphasize investigation and research, unifying top-level design with seeking advice from the people. In the early stage of plan formulation, the lead department, together with various departments, local governments, and scientific research institutions, conducts research on major issues (such as economic growth potential, industrial upgrading, and people’s livelihood guarantees), laying the foundation for plan formulation. During the plan formulation period, opinions are widely solicited from localities, departments, experts, and the public (for example, through online collection of public opinion). The plan also needs to be aligned with major national strategies, regional plans, and special plans to ensure consistency of goals; at the same time, it must interface with the international environment and take into account the needs of opening up to the outside world. During the formulation of the 13th Five-Year Plan, foreign experts were invited to provide suggestions for the plan’s formulation. The 14th Five-Year Plan initiated the method of online political consultation to seek advice from the people. The formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan [16]16 The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is the next five-year plan currently under preparation. carried out online opinion solicitation activities through the official websites, client terminals, and platform columns of central media, listening to opinions from the whole of society, and cumulatively received over 3.113 million suggestions from netizens. This means that the formulation of China’s plans not only achieves the pooling of wisdom and collective efforts across all departments but also fully absorbs domestic and international experience and grassroots wisdom, ensuring the democratic and scientific nature of plan formulation.

第二，注重调查研究，把顶层设计和问计于民统一起来。规划编制前期，牵头部门会同各部门、地方政府及科研机构开展重大问题研究（如经济增长潜力、产业升级、民生保障等），为规划编制奠定基础。规划编制期间，会广泛征求地方、部门、专家及社会公众意见（如通过网络征集民意）。规划还需与国家重大战略、区域规划、专项规划等衔接，确保目标一致；同时对接国际环境，兼顾对外开放需求。“十三五”规划编制时，曾邀请国外专家为规划编制提出建议。“十四五”规划开启了网络问政的方式问计于民。“十五五”规划编制工作通过中央媒体官网、客户端、平台专栏等形式开展网络征求意见活动，听取全社会意见建议，累计收到网民建言超过311.3万条。这意味着，中国规划的编制不仅在各部门实现了集思广益、群策群力，也充分吸收国内外经验与民间智慧，确保规划制定的民主性、科学性。

Third, construct a scientific, reasonable, and clearly defined implementation mechanism. One part of deployment, nine parts of implementation. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized, “Formulating a good document is only the first step of a Long March; the key lies in implementing the document.” Plan implementation is long-term, arduous, and complex. Improving the plan implementation mechanism and clarifying task division and implementation responsibilities are key to turning the plan’s deployment into a beautiful reality. The “Opinions on Unifying the Planning System to Better Play the Strategic Guiding Role of National Development Plans” issued by the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council positions the five-year plan outline as “a phased deployment and arrangement of the socialist modernization strategy within the planning period,” “a grand blueprint for economic and social development, a common program of action for the people of all ethnic groups across the country, and an important basis for the government to perform its functions of economic regulation, market supervision, social management, public services, and ecological environmental protection.” The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee [17]17 The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC was held in October 2019, focusing on the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity. clearly proposed “improving the system of major national development strategies and medium- and long-term economic and social development plans,” making it part of optimizing the government responsibility system, thereby ensuring the authority, continuity, and stability of the plans. In summary, the formulation and implementation process of medium- and long-term plans under the leadership of the CPC ensures that the cause of socialist construction is “carried on from one generation to the next” and “a blueprint is drawn to the end,” reflecting a long-termist view of economic and social development.

第三，构建科学合理、权责清晰的实施机制。一分部署，九分落实。习近平总书记强调，“制定出一个好文件，只是万里长征走完了第一步，关键还在于落实文件”。规划实施具有长期性、艰巨性、复杂性，健全规划实施机制，明确任务分工和实施责任，是确保规划部署变为美好现实的关键。中共中央、国务院发布的《关于统一规划体系更好发挥国家发展规划战略导向作用的意见》将五年规划纲要定位为“是社会主义现代化战略在规划期内的阶段性部署和安排”“是经济社会发展的宏伟蓝图，是全国各族人民共同的行动纲领，是政府履行经济调节、市场监管、社会管理、公共服务、生态环境保护职能的重要依据”。党的十九届四中全会明确提出“完善国家重大发展战略和中长期经济社会发展规划制度”，将其作为优化政府职责体系的一部分，保障了规划的权威性、连续性和稳定性。概言之，中国共产党领导下的中长期规划制定和实施过程，确保了社会主义建设事业“一代接着一代干”“一张蓝图绘到底”，体现了一种长期主义的经济社会发展观。

(Authors: Qu Jing and An Weifu, respectively Associate Professor and Distinguished Professor at the School of Marxism, Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

（作者：曲婧、安维复，分别系上海交通大学马克思主义学院副教授、特聘教授）

Online Editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧