The Expansiveness and Exclusivity of the American Path to Modernization

Introduction

引 言

Modernization is both a global phenomenon—the world frontier of human development since the 18th century and the actions and processes of catching up to, reaching, and maintaining that frontier—and a form of civilizational progress, a paradigm shift from traditional to modern civilization that occurs across all levels, fields, and sectors of human civilization. It is also a development goal: countries that have already achieved modernization must maintain and raise their level of modernization, while those that have not yet done so must catch up and achieve it. From the perspective of international competition, only a portion of countries are currently able to reach and maintain the world's advanced level. Over the past 300 years, the proportion of developed countries has been less than 20%, while developing countries have accounted for over 80%. In roughly the last 50 years, the probability of a developing country upgrading to a developed country has been about 5%, while the probability of a developed country maintaining its developed status has been about 90%.

现代化既是一个世界现象，是18世纪以来人类发展的世界前沿以及追赶、达到和保持该世界前沿的行为和过程；又是一种文明进步，是从传统文明向现代文明的范式转变，发生在人类文明的所有层次、领域和部门；还是一个发展目标，即已经实现现代化的国家要保持并提高现代化水平，尚未实现现代化的国家要追赶和实现现代化。从国际竞争角度看，现在只有部分国家能够达到并保持世界先进水平。在过去300年里，发达国家的比例不到20%，发展中国家的比例超过80%；在最近大约50年里，发展中国家升级为发达国家的概率约为5%，发达国家保持发达水平的概率约为90%。

The modernization of the United States has had a tremendous impact on and offered significant insights for the world. In the 19th century, the United States completed its transformation from a rural society to an urban society and from a peripheral nation to a world power. This transformation not only inherited certain aspects of the modernization process of Western European countries but also featured immense innovation, driving a profound restructuring of American society and gradually making it one of the most highly modernized countries in the world.

美国的现代化为世界带来了巨大的影响和启示。美国19世纪完成了从乡村社会向城市社会、从边缘国家向世界强国的转变，该转变既与西欧国家的现代化进程有一定的承接关系，又有巨大的创新性，推动了美国社会的深刻转型，使其逐渐成为世界上现代化程度最高的国家。

Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [1]1 The 18th National Congress of the CPC was held in November 2012, marking the beginning of the Xi Jinping era and the launch of the "New Era" of socialism with Chinese characteristics., China's unstoppable development has dealt a massive blow to America's global hegemonic status. However, the United States, unwilling to relinquish its world hegemonic position and special interests held since World War II, has clearly defined its relationship with China as one of strategic competition. Using strategic deterrence and balancing policies as its primary means, and employing multiple methods in both the real world and virtual space—such as ideological infiltration, alliance-based strategic encirclement, military threats, "decoupling and severing supply chains" [2]2 "Decoupling and severing supply chains" (脱钩断链) refers to US-led efforts to reduce economic interdependence with China by cutting technology transfers, investment ties, and supply-chain links. to suppress China, and manufacturing public opinion—the US is making intensive efforts to create a continuous and concurrent series of difficult and beleaguered situations for China, seeking an international system "rebalancing" favorable to itself.

党的十八大以来，中国势不可挡的发展使美国世界霸权地位受到巨大冲击。然而，美国不甘心失去自二战以来的世界霸主地位和特殊利益，为此已明确了与中国的战略竞争的关系定位，并以战略威慑和制衡政策为主要手段，通过意识形态渗透、联盟战略围堵、军事威胁、“脱钩断链”打压、制造舆论影响等现实世界和虚拟空间的多种手段并举，大力度集中给中国制造连续性、并发性的难局、困局，图谋国际体系有利于其自身的“再平衡”。

In recent years, scholars of world modernization have argued that the United States is far from entering a period of hegemonic decline, and that China is also far from having developed to the point where it could replace American hegemony. The fundamental reason the United States has prematurely embarked on a path of strategic competition with China is that Chinese-path modernization [3]3 "Chinese-path modernization" (中国式现代化) is the official term for China's distinctive model of modernization, as defined by Xi Jinping, which rejects Western-style liberal democracy and has not only failed to follow the so-called Western "democratic path" but has also developed its own political model, achieved leapfrog development, exceeded America's expectations for China's development prospects, and continuously challenged the US hegemonic system and its "sole superpower status." Therefore, analyzing the evolutionary path of American modernization and the foundations of its hegemonic maintenance will help our country, under the circumstances of profound changes in the world order and increasingly complex major-power relations, to more accurately define the historical position and mission of the times for Chinese-path modernization, to more actively respond to the pressures and challenges of international vicissitudes, and to achieve greater accomplishments on the great journey toward national rejuvenation.

近年来，世界现代化学者认为，美国远未进入霸权衰退期，中国也远未发展到可取代美国霸权的程度。美国过早地走上与中国的战略竞争之路，其根本原因在于中国式现代化不仅没有走所谓西方式“民主道路”，而且发展出了自己的政治模式，实现了跨越式发展，超出了美国对中国发展前景的预期，不断冲击着美国的霸权体系和“一超地位”。因此，分析美国现代化的演进路径及其霸权维系的根基，有助于我国在世界秩序深刻变革、大国关系愈加复杂的形势下，更精准地界定中国式现代化的历史方位和时代使命，更积极地应对国际风云变幻的压力和挑战，在实现民族复兴的伟大征程中，取得更大成就。

The Logic, Strategy, and China Policy of the American Path to Modernization

美国现代化道路逻辑、战略与对华政策

The American Path to Agricultural Modernization and Food Monopoly. Agricultural modernization is the foundation and support of national modernization. Although the United States is a highly developed country in terms of economy and technology today, agriculture still occupies an important position in its national economy. As the world's largest food exporter, the United States continues to use agricultural products as an important diplomatic weapon and strategic resource. Historically, American agricultural modernization has gone through four stages: the agricultural machinery revolution, the chemical revolution, the biological revolution, and the management revolution. However, each stage has been inseparable from a strong agricultural support and protection policy system centered on market-oriented indirect subsidies. This has gradually formed characteristics such as highly organized agricultural management, highly systematized agricultural laws, highly structured agricultural subsidies, highly mechanized agricultural production, highly technological agricultural development, and highly protected agricultural resources. According to statistics, US agricultural output showed sustained growth from 1948 to 2019, with an average growth rate of 1.42%, greatly promoting the leapfrog development of American agriculture and establishing its leading position in world agriculture. Currently, the world's four major grain traders—US-based ADM, US-based Bunge, US-based Cargill, and France-based Louis Dreyfus—control over 80% of global grain trade, forming a monopolistic control over global grain trade.

美国农业现代化道路与粮食垄断。农业现代化是国家现代化的基础和支撑。虽然美国是当今世界经济和科技高度发达的国家，但农业在其国民经济中仍占有重要地位。美国作为全球最大的粮食出口国，农产品依然是其重要的外交武器与战略资源。从历史来看，美国农业现代化经历了农业机械革命、化学革命和生物革命以及管理革命四个阶段，但各个阶段均离不开强有力的以市场导向间接补贴为核心内容的农业支持保护政策体系，并逐渐形成了农业管理高度组织化、农业法律高度系统化、农业补贴高度体系化、农业生产高度机械化、农业发展高度科技化、农业资源高度保护化等特征。据统计，美国的农业产出在1948～2019年间呈现持续增长，平均增长速度为1.42%，极大地促进了美国农业的跃升式发展，奠定了美国农业在世界范围的领先地位。当前，世界公认的四大粮商——美国ADM、美国邦吉（Bunge）、美国嘉吉（Cargill）和法国路易·达孚（Louis Dreyfus）占据了全球八成以上的粮食贸易，对全球粮食贸易形成了垄断性控制。

The establishment of the China-US Joint Working Group on Agricultural Science and Technology Cooperation in 1980 marked the official launch of intergovernmental cooperation mechanisms in agricultural science and technology between China and the United States. Since joining the WTO, China's agricultural opening-up has continuously expanded, making it the world's most important agricultural product importer and a significant source of foreign agricultural investment. The United States has become China's largest agricultural trade partner and second-largest source of agricultural imports. Bilateral agricultural trade between China and the US has grown rapidly, with US agricultural exports to China reaching a record $38.16 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 16%. Although the development of agricultural trade has effectively alleviated domestic pressure on agricultural resources and the environment, ensuring domestic supply and stable market operations, the increasing tendency of the United States to instrumentalize, weaponize, financialize, and energize agricultural products—influenced by the rise of international trade protectionism and changes in the geopolitical landscape—has deeply linked, intertwined, and bound China's food security with financial security and energy security.

1980年中美农业科技合作联合工作组成立，标志着中美农业科技政府间合作机制正式启动。加入世贸组织以来，中国农业对外开放程度不断扩大，已成为全球最为主要的农产品进口国和重要的对外农业投资来源国。美国成为中国最大的农产品贸易伙伴国和第二大农产品进口来源国，中美农业双边贸易额快速增长，2022年美国向中国农产品出口达到创纪录的381.6亿美元，同比增长16%。虽然农产品贸易的发展有效缓解了国内农业资源环境压力，保障了国内供应和市场平稳运行，但受国际贸易保护主义抬头与地缘政治格局变动的影响，美国日益将农产品工具化、武器化、金融化、能源化的倾向使我国粮食安全也深度与金融安全、能源安全联动、交织和捆绑。

The American Path to Industrial Power and the Reindustrialization Strategy. In the more than a century after its founding, the main theme of America's economic modernization was industrialization. Through industrialization, it gradually became the world's first industrial power to rise from a late-developing country, maintaining its leading position for over a hundred years. From the 1870s to the end of the 1890s, the United States achieved a series of innovations in technology, production methods, and production organization, leading to a leapfrog growth in industrial production and technological levels. Starting in the 1980s, the United States entered a new economic period. The rapid development of science and technology accelerated the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing toward high-capital, high-tech-content advanced manufacturing. Imports increasingly tilted toward labor-intensive products, while exports concentrated on skill- and capital-intensive products. This growth path exhibits distinct characteristics: first, relying on abundant natural and human resources to drive industrialization; second, using the domestic unified market to sustain long-term continuous growth of the industrial economy; third, rapidly moving from imitating developed countries' technologies to independent technological innovation; fourth, establishing a relatively complete industrial sector to support national economic development; and fifth, achieving balanced national economic development through regional economic diffusion. Although the United States has been troubled in recent years by the decline of traditional manufacturing and huge trade deficits, this does not mean it has lost its industrial technological advantages. Taking China-US trade as an example, there is a clear structural characteristic in the trade between the two countries: the United States has consistently maintained a surplus in technology-intensive finished product areas such as aircraft, information technology, and integrated circuits.

美国工业强国道路与再工业化战略。美国在建国之后的一个多世纪里，其经济现代化的主旋律是工业化，并通过工业化逐渐成为世界上第一个从后发国家崛起的工业强国，且保持领先地位一百多年。从19世纪70年代到90年代末期，美国在技术、生产方式和生产组织等方面实现了一系列创新，工业生产和技术水平出现了跳跃式增长。自20世纪80年代开始，美国进入新经济时期，科学技术的飞速发展加速推进制造业向高资本、高技术含量的高端制造业转型升级，进口更多地倾向于劳动密集型产品，而出口则集中于技能、资本密集型产品。这一成长路径呈现出鲜明特征：一是依靠充裕的自然资源和人力资源推动工业化；二是以国内统一市场拉动工业经济长期持续增长；三是从模仿发达国家技术迅速走向技术自主创新；四是建立相对完整的产业部门支撑国民经济发展；五是通过区域经济推移实现全国经济均衡发展。尽管美国近年来备受传统制造业衰落以及贸易巨额逆差等问题的困扰，但这并不意味着美国产业技术优势的丧失。以中美贸易为例，两国之间的贸易存在着鲜明的结构性特征，在飞机、信息技术、集成电路等技术密集型成品领域，美国一直保持着顺差。

Against the backdrop of the 2008 financial crisis, the United States targeted high-end technology and high-value-added manufacturing sectors, vigorously developing strategic emerging industries. It implemented a "reindustrialization" strategy through technological innovation and model innovation, and attempted to hinder China's industrial upgrading and globalization process through "de-Sinicization" measures such as reshoring production, nearshoring, and building industrial chain alliances. After President Biden took office in 2021, the era of "Reindustrialization 3.0" began. US support for manufacturing shifted from broad to focused, allying with partners to make advanced manufacturing—including semiconductors—a killer weapon in its game with China and in containing China's development, extremely compressing the development space for China's related industries in the global market.

在2008年金融危机背景下，美国瞄准高端技术和高附加值的制造业领域，大力发展战略性新兴产业，以科技创新和模式创新实施“再工业化”战略，并试图通过回岸生产、近岸外包以及搭建产业链联盟等“去中国化”措施，阻碍我国产业化升级和全球化进程。2021年拜登总统上台后，开启了“再工业化3.0”时代，美国对制造业的支持从广泛到聚焦，联合盟友将包括半导体在内的先进制造业作为与中国博弈以及遏制中国发展的杀手锏，极度压缩我国相关产业在全球市场上的发展空间。

The American path to scientific and technological innovation and scientific and technological hegemony. Scientific and technological strength and innovation capacity are key factors concerning national security, economic development, and the future and destiny of a nation. As a world scientific and technological power, the United States holds a leading position in almost all cutting-edge fields of science and technology. However, this world-leading status was not achieved overnight but was gradually attained through a long process of development and continuous accumulation. From 1776 to 1865, the United States continuously introduced technology from European countries such as Britain, recruited technical talent, and enacted patent protection laws, initially forming an innovation environment. From 1866 to 1913, the United States seized the historical opportunity of the Second Industrial Revolution, vigorously developed heavy industry centered on electric power technology, achieved a qualitative leap in productive forces, and made itself the world's leading economic power. Entering the 20th century, the two world wars strongly stimulated the development of American science and technology. Industrial research laboratories and research universities became the two pillars of the American national innovation system, and the United States quickly became the world's top scientific and technological power. Since the 21st century, the United States has continued to support the development of high-tech industries from both policy and capital aspects. At the same time, it has also adopted strategies to restrict international scientific and technological cooperation in some strategically important technology industries in order to maintain its relative competitive advantage in the field of science and technology. From the development path of American scientific and technological innovation, it can be found: First, the United States generally follows the principle of "economy first, then technology, then science," with economic catch-up being the prerequisite for scientific and technological catch-up. Second, in the process of economic development, the United States chose to develop the domestic market first, and then move to the international market. Third, in the process of technological catch-up, the United States experienced a stage transition from "mainly importing" to independent innovation. Fourth, the United States is adept at seizing the opportunities of the times and building a good institutional environment for scientific research, shifting the construction of its scientific and technological talent team from "importing from abroad" to "cultivating locally." In addition, the United States has formed a free and inclusive innovation culture, a multi-point supported regional innovation system, an organically coordinated innovation ecosystem, venture capital that promotes the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and an increasingly perfect system for talent cultivation, attraction, retention, and utilization. These are all unique successful elements of its scientific and technological modernization and have become key supports for its scientific and technological innovation.

美国科技创新道路与科技霸权。科技实力和创新能力是事关国家安全、经济发展和前途命运的关键要素。作为世界科技强国，美国几乎在所有科学技术尖端领域都占据着领先地位。然而，这种世界领先的地位并非一蹴而就，而是通过漫长的发展历程和持续的积累逐步取得的。1776～1865年，美国不断从英国等欧洲国家引进技术、招募技术人才，并颁布专利保护法律，创新环境初步形成。1866～1913年，美国抓住第二次工业革命的历史机遇，大力发展以电力技术为核心的重工业，实现了生产力质的飞跃，使自身成为世界头号经济大国。进入20世纪，两次世界大战对美国科技发展起到强烈的刺激作用，工业研究实验室和研究型大学成为美国国家创新体系的两大支柱，美国迅速成为世界第一科技强国。21世纪以来，美国继续从政策和资本两方面支持高科技产业发展，同时，也对一些具有战略意义的科技产业采取国际科技合作限制策略，以保持其在科技领域的相对竞争优势。从美国科技创新发展路径上可以发现：第一，美国整体上遵循“先经济，后技术，再科学”的原则，经济赶超是科技赶超的前提。第二，在经济发展的过程中，美国选择先发展国内市场，再走向国际市场。第三，在技术赶超的过程中，美国经历了“以引进为主”到自主创新的阶段转变。第四，美国善于抓住时代机遇并构建良好的科研制度环境，将科技人才队伍的建设由“从外引进”转为“本土培养”。此外，美国形成了自由包容的创新文化、多点支撑的区域创新体系、有机协同的创新生态系统、促进科技成果转化的风险资本以及日益完善的人才育引留用体系等，均是其科技现代化独具特色的成功要素，成为其科技创新的关键支撑。

In recent years, China's comprehensive national strength has continued to increase, and its scientific and technological innovation capacity has significantly improved, making it the country with the fastest scientific and technological development. In the 2022 Global Innovation Index ranking, China ranked 11th, successfully entering the ranks of innovative countries. However, in the global landscape of scientific and technological innovation, the United States remains the country with the strongest scientific and technological strength, and there is still a clear gap in scientific and technological strength between China and the United States. According to data released by the U.S. National Science Board in 2022, the added value of U.S. knowledge- and technology-intensive service industries accounts for 37% of the global total, while China accounts for only about 11%. To maintain its scientific and technological hegemony, the United States has explicitly placed scientific and technological competition at the core of the U.S.-China strategic competition, continuously escalating its suppression and blockade of China's technology industries through measures such as export controls, investment reviews, and the construction of a "democratic technology alliance."

近年来，中国综合国力持续增强，科技创新能力显著提升，已成为科技发展速度最快的国家。2022年全球创新指数排名中国位列第11位，成功进入创新型国家行列。然而，在全球科技创新的版图中，美国仍然是科技实力最强的国家，中美之间的科技实力仍然存在明显差距。根据美国国家科学委员会2022年发布的数据，美国知识与技术密集型服务业增加值占全球总额的37%，中国只占约11%。为维持科技霸权，美国明确将科技竞争置于中美战略竞争的核心，通过出口管制、投资审查、构建“民主科技联盟”等举措不断升级对华科技产业的打压和封锁。

The American path to cultural expansion and cultural aggression. The United States is the world's most developed country in the production and trade of cultural products. Its film and television industry, broadcasting industry, newspaper and publishing industry, advertising industry, software industry, and entertainment industry all have advantages that other countries cannot match. Before World War II, the basic path of American cultural expansion and penetration was through missionary work and running schools; after the war, the information technology revolution represented by computers further promoted the rapid development of the American communications industry, and the Internet became the fourth major communication medium after newspapers, radio, and television. The United States "embeds" and "distributes" American values and lifestyles through film and television products, books, various media, and funding non-profit cultural institutions, continuously promoting and disseminating so-called "democracy," "freedom," "equality," "rule of law," "human rights," and other American-style values and ideologies externally. It formulates and implements cultural strategies in a planned and purposeful manner, creating a cultural and public opinion space dominated by American-style culture worldwide, greatly promoting the realization of U.S. national interests. Entering the 21st century, empowered by the continuous iteration of information network technology, the "expansion" effect of American culture has multiplied. Currently, American film and television products flood the world, occupying 75% of the global market, becoming an important channel for promoting its own value orientation, lifestyle, and political system globally.

美国文化扩张道路与文化侵略。美国是全球文化产品生产、贸易最为发达的国家，其影视业、广播电视业、报刊出版业、广告业、软件业、娱乐业等都具有其他国家无可比拟的优势。二战前，美国文化扩张和渗透的基本路径是传教和办教育；战后，以计算机为代表的信息技术革命进一步推动了美国通讯业的快速发展，互联网成为继报刊、广播和电视之后的第四大通讯媒介。美国通过影视产品、图书、各种媒体以及资助非营利性文化机构等方式“嵌入”“配售”美国价值观和生活方式，不断对外宣传和推广所谓“民主”“自由”“平等”“法治”“人权”等美式价值观和意识形态，有计划、有目的地制定和实施文化战略，在世界范围内打造出一个以美式文化为主导的文化和舆论空间，极大地促进了美国国家利益的实现。进入21世纪，在信息网络技术不断迭代的赋能之下，美国文化的“扩张”效果倍增。目前，美国影视产品充斥世界，占据全球75%的市场，成为其在全球推行自身价值取向、生活方式、政治制度的重要渠道。

Culture is a covert means for the United States to carry out ideological penetration and serve coercive diplomacy. While vigorously promoting its values and maintaining cultural hegemony, the United States also "demonizes" the historical cultures and systems of many non-Western countries, advocates so-called "clash of civilizations," and contains and suppresses other cultures that "challenge" American cultural influence. At the same time, relevant U.S. "penetration organizations" and institutions promote American cultural and political viewpoints to other countries through financial support, providing training, publishing journals, and holding conferences, exporting American values and ideologies, and influencing global political and social trends. Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. cultural export and value penetration towards China have exhibited all-round and multi-level characteristics. In this process, the United States attempts to achieve the goal of Westernizing and dividing China through means such as material and cultural exchanges, institutional export, and value dissemination. Faced with U.S. intervention and penetration, the Chinese government and people have always maintained a high degree of vigilance, actively safeguarding national cultural security and the value system. Under the leadership of the Party, China has successfully embarked on a path of socialism with Chinese characteristics, resisted the impact of external cultural aggression and values, and provided the world with a unique and referential development model. The U.S. cultural export and value penetration towards China have not achieved their expected goals, highlighting the superiority and vitality of socialism with Chinese characteristics.

文化是美国进行意识形态渗透、服务胁迫外交的隐蔽手段。美国在大力推行其价值观、维护文化霸权的同时，还对很多非西方国家的历史文化和制度等进行“妖魔化”，鼓吹所谓的“文明冲突”，对“挑战”美国文化影响力的其他文化进行遏制和打压。同时，美国相关“渗透组织”和机构通过资金支持、提供培训、出版刊物、举办会议等方式向其他国家宣扬美国文化与政治观点，输出美国的价值观、意识形态，影响全球的政治和社会走向。自冷战结束以来，美国对华文化输出和价值观渗透呈现全方位、多层次的特点。在这一过程中，美国试图通过物质文化交流、制度输出和价值观传播等手段，达到西化、分化中国的目的。面对美国的干预和渗透，我国政府和民众始终保持高度警惕，积极捍卫国家文化安全和价值观体系。在党的领导下，中国成功走出了一条中国特色社会主义道路，抵御了外部文化侵略和价值观念的冲击，为世界提供了独特且可资借鉴的发展模式。美国对中国的文化输出和价值观渗透并未达到其预期目标，凸显了中国特色社会主义的优越性和生命力。

The American path to a financial empire and dollar hegemony. After World War II, the United States established the Bretton Woods system with a "dual peg" of the dollar to gold and other currencies to the dollar, gradually establishing international monetary rules, trading networks, and organizational institutions centered on the dollar, which became powerful tools supporting the global hegemonic status of the United States. In the 1970s, the dollar was directly pegged to oil, the most important international bulk commodity, further establishing the dollar's hegemonic status. Subsequently, the United States actively promoted financial internationalization, expanding the scope of its financial business through measures such as opening markets and signing free trade agreements, making the economic activities of countries around the world inevitably subject to U.S. economic policies and financial strategies. However, to safeguard its own interests, the United States' wanton over-issuance of dollars has led to global liquidity flooding, exacerbating the instability of the international monetary system. After the 2008 financial crisis, the United States actively adjusted its financial regulatory system, strengthened financial risk prevention and control, and further consolidated its position as a financial empire. The adjustments made by the United States after the crisis not only gradually restored its domestic financial market but also strengthened its financial hegemonic position through foreign trade controls. Overall, the maintenance of dollar hegemony mainly benefits from the following six points: First, economic strength supports the relative stability of the dollar's value. Second, an open, deep, and liquid financial market, including developed stock, bond, foreign exchange, and venture capital markets. Third, petrodollars, meaning that bulk commodities are settled in dollars, allowing the United States to control global pricing power for bulk commodities. Fourth, the United States has a "veto power" in international financial organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). Fifth, bilateral currency swaps led by the Federal Reserve. Sixth, dollar hegemony is interconnected with and mutually reinforces U.S. military hegemony and foreign policy.

美国金融帝国道路与美元霸权。二战后，美国成立了美元与黄金挂钩、其他货币与美元挂钩的“双挂钩”布雷顿森林体系，逐步确立了以美元为核心的国际货币规则、交易网络和组织机构，这些成为支撑美国全球霸主地位的强有力工具。20世纪70年代，美元与石油这一最重要的国际大宗商品直接挂钩，进一步确立了美元霸主地位。此后，美国积极推动金融国际化，通过开放市场、签订自由贸易协定等手段，扩大其金融业务范围，使世界各国的经济活动都不可避免地受制于美国的经济政策和金融战略。然而，美国为维护其自身利益，肆意超发美元导致了全球流动性泛滥，加剧了国际货币体系的不稳定性。2008年金融危机后，美国积极调整金融监管体系，加强金融风险防控，进一步巩固了其金融帝国的地位。美国在危机后的调整，不仅使其国内金融市场逐步恢复，还通过对外贸易管制，强化了其金融霸权的地位。综合来看，美元霸权的维系主要得益于以下6点：一是经济实力支撑美元币值相对稳定；二是开放、有深度和流动性的金融市场，包括发达的股市、债市、汇市以及风投市场等；三是石油美元，即大宗商品用美元结算以使美国掌控全球大宗商品定价权；四是在国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行（WB）等国际金融组织中美国拥有“一票否决权”；五是以美联储为主导的双边货币互换；六是美元霸权与美国的军事霸权和外交政策相互关联、相互强化。

China’s financial assets are enormous in scale. As of the end of the second quarter of 2023, the total assets of financial institutions reached 449.21 trillion yuan; the scale of foreign capital attracted has ranked second in the world for five consecutive years; the share of the renminbi in international trade, foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange transactions, and cross-border investment and financing has increased significantly; at the same time, the renminbi’s share in global cross-border payment and settlement has also continued to rise. China’s financial system has achieved a transition from “small” to “large” and is now in a critical period of leaping from “large” to “strong.” However, the gap between China and the United States remains considerable. In 2023, the U.S. GDP was $27.37 trillion, accounting for 25.32% of the global total, while China’s GDP was $17.89 trillion, accounting for 17.86%; the U.S. dollar’s share in global transactions was 44.2%, while the renminbi’s share in global transactions and reserves was only 3.5%. In addition, the United States holds 16.5% of the voting power in the International Monetary Fund, while China currently holds only 6.08%, a proportion that is seriously inconsistent with China’s international economic and trade status, and the difficulty of catching up in the future is enormous. Dollar hegemony is an important cornerstone of U.S. global hegemony, not only helping the United States harvest global wealth but also causing various negative impacts on the economies of other countries.

中国金融资产数量庞大，截至2023年二季度末，金融业机构总资产达449.21万亿元；吸引外资规模连续5年位居世界第二；人民币在国际贸易、外汇储备、外汇交易和跨境投融资等领域占比明显加大；同时，人民币在全球跨境支付结算中的占比也持续提升。中国金融体系已经实现了由“小”到“大”的转变，正处于由“大”向“强”跨越的关键时期。然而，中国与美国的差距仍然较大。2023年美国的GDP为27.37万亿美元、在全球中的占比为25.32%，中国GDP为17.89万亿美元、占比为17.86%；美元在全球交易中的份额为44.2%，人民币在全球交易和储备中的占比仅为3.5%。此外，美国在国际货币基金组织拥有16.5%的投票权，而中国目前只有6.08%的投票权，该比例与中国的国际经济、贸易地位严重不相符，且未来追赶难度巨大。美元霸权是美国维持全球霸权的重要基石，不仅帮助美国收割全球财富，也给其他国家经济造成各种负面影响。

The U.S. path to military hegemony and the arms race. U.S. national interests are spread across the world, including not only interests within its own territory but also extensive overseas interests. Looking at history, the evolutionary thread of U.S. military hegemony can be roughly divided into four stages: from the Mexican-American War to the Spanish-American War as the preparatory period, from World War I to the end of World War II as the establishment period, the U.S.-Soviet Cold War as the competition period, and the post-Cold War period as the peak period. The strength of U.S. military power is highlighted in four aspects: “massive military budgets, military bases spread across the world, advanced weaponry and equipment, and highly combat-effective and experienced armed forces.” For a long time, the United States has used launching or intervening in wars and building a global network of military bases as overt means, and alliance systems and U.S.-dominated international rules as covert means, to maintain its global military hegemony, and under new circumstances it employs new models, new technologies, and new concepts to prevent any potential challenger from shaking its hegemonic position. The U.S. military’s tentacles extend across the globe, currently possessing approximately 750 military bases in at least 80 countries and stationing over 173,000 troops in 159 countries. According to statistics from the Global Firepower website, the U.S. military strength index in 2023 was 0.0712, ranking first among 197 countries worldwide. The United States possesses the world’s most powerful nuclear arsenal and conventional weapons arsenal, while maintaining the world’s highest military spending. Data show that in 2021, its military spending accounted for 38% of global military spending.

美国军事霸权道路与军备竞赛。美国的国家利益遍布世界，不仅包括其本土范围的利益，而且包括广泛的海外利益。纵观历史，美国军事霸权的演进脉络可以大致分为4个阶段：从美墨战争到美西战争为准备期，从第一次世界大战到第二次世界大战结束为确立期，美苏冷战期间为争夺期，冷战结束后为巅峰期。美国军事实力的强大凸显在“庞大的军事运算、遍布全世界的美军基地、先进的武器装备、作战素质高且经验丰富的军队”这四个方面。长期以来，美国以发动或介入战争、建造全球军事基地网为显性手段，以同盟体系和美国主导的国际规则为隐性手段，维护其全球军事霸权地位，并在新形势下运用新模式、新技术、新概念以防止任何潜在挑战者动摇其霸主地位的可能。美国的军事触角遍布全球，目前在世界上至少80个国家拥有约750个军事基地，在159个国家驻扎了超17.3万人的军队。据《全球火力》网站统计，2023年美国的军事实力指数为0.0712，在全球197个国家中排名第一。美国拥有世界上最强大的核武库和常规武器库，同时保持着世界最高的军费开支，数据显示，2021年，其军费开支在全世界军费开支中占38%。

In recent years, the U.S. government’s obsession with and prejudice against the so-called “China threat” have deepened. In practice, it uses the alliance system to integrate regional strategic resources to encircle China, treating the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) [7]7 The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) is a strategic security dialogue between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, revived in 2017 and often seen as a counterweight to China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. as the core security platform for advancing the “Indo-Pacific Strategy,” while deepening the AUKUS trilateral security partnership [8]8 AUKUS is a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, announced in 2021, focused on sharing nuclear submarine technology and other advanced capabilities. and strengthening trilateral cooperation such as the U.S.-Japan-ROK and U.S.-Japan-Australia frameworks. This practice of constructing “minilateral” alliances in the Asia-Pacific has weakened strategic trust between China and neighboring countries, potentially having a certain degree of impact on China’s influence in the regional production and supply chains and innovation chains. The political costs of China’s participation in and guidance of regional affairs, as well as the military security pressures it faces in the surrounding areas, continue to increase.

近年来，美国政府对所谓“中国威胁”的执念和偏见不断加深，在实践上借助同盟体系整合区域的战略资源围堵中国，将美日印澳“四边机制”（QUAD）视为推进“印太战略”的核心安全平台，同时深化美英澳“三边安全伙伴关系”，加强美日韩、美日澳等三边协作。这种在亚太构建“小多边”联盟的行径削弱了中国与周边国家的战略信任，对中国在区域内产供链、创新链中的影响力或会带来一定程度的冲击。中国参与和引导地区事务的政治成本和在周边地区面临的军事安全压力持续增大。

The U.S. path to global governance and identity crisis. Since its founding, the United States has continuously adjusted its foreign policy based on its own interests and changes in the international situation. In the more than 100 years after its founding, the United States pursued a foreign strategy of isolationism and the Monroe Doctrine [9]9 The Monroe Doctrine, articulated by U.S. President James Monroe in 1823, declared opposition to European colonialism in the Americas and asserted U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere., avoiding involvement in international affairs, thereby ensuring a peaceful external environment for its rise. During the two world wars, by modifying its “neutrality policy,” the United States shifted from “non-intervention” to “participation in the war,” advocated for the establishment of the World Anti-Fascist Alliance, participated in and dominated four important international conferences in the later stages of World War II, and took the lead in establishing a global governance system centered on existing international mechanisms, formulating basic governance rules in areas such as global security, trade, and finance, and playing a key role in them. Countries around the world also generally accepted the concept of global governance and supported multilateral cooperation centered on the United Nations in addressing global issues and challenges. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. global leadership experienced a certain degree of decline. To reduce the costs of maintaining its global hegemonic status, the U.S. global governance strategy has increasingly shifted from emphasizing multilateralism and great-power cooperation to prioritizing unilateral U.S. interests, the domestication of global governance, and great-power competition. Among these, alliance diplomacy based on Western liberal democratic values has become a prominent feature of U.S. global policy.

美国全球治理道路与身份危机。美国建国以来，根据其自身利益和国际形势变化，不断调整对外政策。在其建国后的100多年间，美国奉行孤立主义和“门罗主义”的对外战略，避免介入国际事务，确保了美国崛起的外部和平环境。在两次世界大战中，通过修改“中立政策”，美国变“不干预”为“参战”，倡导建立世界反法西斯同盟，参与并主导了二战后期的四次重要国际会议，主导建立了以现有国际机制为核心的全球治理体系，在全球安全、贸易、金融等领域制定了基本的治理规则，并在其中发挥关键作用。世界各国也普遍接受了全球治理理念，支持在全球性问题与挑战方面践行以联合国为核心的多边合作。然而，2008年金融危机后，美国全球领导力出现一定程度的衰退，为降低其维持全球霸权地位的成本，美国的全球治理战略由注重多边主义和大国合作日益向美国单边利益优先、全球治理的国内化治理和大国竞争的道路转变。其中，建立在西方自由民主价值观基础上的联盟外交成为美国全球政策的显著特征。

The tremendous achievements of reform and opening up and the acceleration of the internationalization process have enhanced our country’s confidence and capacity to deeply participate in global governance. Our country actively participates in the construction of new international governance mechanisms and platforms such as the G20, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the BRICS, and the Belt and Road Initiative cooperation, and has proposed the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative. Its voice in traditional international organizations such as the United Nations, the IMF, and the World Bank continues to grow, making it an active participant and a strong contributor to global governance. Research data show that China, the United States, and France continue to maintain an “A++ level” status in global governance, belonging to the world’s top tier. China’s influence on the global governance system has entered a completely new era. However, the United States strongly opposes forms of governance that differ from its own approach to global governance, becoming the biggest obstacle to the development of the global governance system. At the same time, the United States cannot accept China’s increasingly dominant position in the global governance system, views China as a challenger seeking to start a new system, and has repeatedly obstructed reforms to the existing global governance system in order to maintain its own hegemony within it.

改革开放的巨大成就和国际化进程的加速，增强了我国深入参与全球治理的信心和能力，我国积极参与G20、上海合作组织、亚洲基础设施投资银行、金砖国家与“一带一路”合作等新的国际治理机制与平台的建设，提出全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议和全球文明倡议，在联合国、IMF和世界银行等传统国际组织中的话语权不断增长，成为全球治理的积极参与者和有力贡献者。研究数据显示，中国、美国和法国继续保持了全球治理“A++级”的地位，处于全球第一梯队。中国对全球治理体系的影响进入一个全新时代。然而，美国极力反对与其全球治理取向不同的治理形式，成为制约全球治理体系发展的最大障碍。同时，美国无法接受中国在全球治理体系中日益占据主导地位，将中国视为另起炉灶的挑战者，并且为维护其在现行全球治理体系中的霸权，对全球治理体系变革多有阻挠。

Countermeasures to break through the institutional competition of U.S. modernization

破解美国现代化制度竞争的对策

Modernization is the focal point of international competition and a concentrated expression of comprehensive national power and competitiveness. Developed countries have already achieved modernization and must strive to maintain their level of modernization and their world status; developing countries must strive to achieve modernization, enhance national strength, and improve people’s livelihoods. However, modernization is a process of human civilization driven by resources and energy, and resources and energy are limited and unevenly distributed worldwide. After more than 300 years of development, more than 100 countries have entered the stage of maintaining or achieving modernization, and there are only two countries with populations over one million that remain in traditional agricultural societies. This means that about one billion people in the world must maintain an advanced level of modernization, and over five billion people need to achieve modernization. Therefore, international competition over resources and energy will inevitably become more intense.

现代化是国际竞争的焦点，是综合国力和竞争力的集中体现。发达国家已经实现现代化，要努力保持现代化的水平和其世界地位；发展中国家要努力实现现代化，提升国力、改善民生。但是现代化是一个由资源、能源驱动的人类文明进程，而资源、能源在世界范围是有限且分布不平衡的。经过300多年的发展，已有100多个国家进入保持或实现现代化的阶段，仍处于传统农业社会的100万以上人口的国家有且只有2个。这意味着世界上有10亿人口要保持现代化先进水平，超过50亿人口要达到现代化，因此有关资源、能源的国际竞争必然会更趋白炽化。

The deepening of U.S. deterrence against China and the strengthening of its counterbalancing pose new challenges to the construction and direction of Sino-U.S. relations. Avoiding the “Thucydides Trap” [10]10 The “Thucydides Trap” refers to the theory, popularized by political scientist Graham Allison, that when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, war is often the result, drawing on the ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ account of the Peloponnesian War., preventing a repeat of the “conflict model,” expanding areas of positive cooperation between the two countries, and compressing areas of negative competition are the practical issues that China must focus on in the process of advancing Chinese-path modernization. The paths to modernization and systems of China and the United States differ, and in grasping their relationship, one should avoid both falling into “extreme competition” and, even more so, moving toward “mixed confrontation.” For a considerable period to come, our country’s strategic response will be to promote reform “within the system,” rather than launching challenges “outside the system”; to continuously make incremental adjustments that improve the existing system, rather than revolutionary subversion. The development of Chinese-path modernization is not about seeking to surpass the United States, but rather, based on an assessment of our own national conditions and development capabilities, achieving leapfrog development under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. We should adhere to the principle of “combining responsibilities, rights, and interests,” strengthen the guidance and shaping of U.S. policy toward China, while at the same time undertaking international responsibilities commensurate with our country’s international status, reasonably demanding the international rights we deserve, and putting forward reasonable interest claims.

美国对华威慑的深入和制衡的加强给中美关系建设和走向带来新的挑战。规避“修昔底德陷阱”，避免重蹈“冲突模式”覆辙，扩大两国积极合作领域，压缩两国消极维度竞争，是中国在推进中国式现代化过程中所要重点关注的现实议题。中美双方现代化道路与制度不同，对其关系的把握应既要避免陷入“极限竞争”，更要避免走向“混合对抗”。在今后相当长时期内，我国的战略应对将维持在“系统内”促进改革，而非在“系统外”发起挑战；持续对现有体系改良性的增量调整，而非革命性的颠覆。中国式现代化的发展并非寻求赶超美国，而是基于对自身国情和发展能力的评估，在中国共产党的领导下不断实现跨越式发展。应坚持“责、权、利相结合”，加强对美国对华政策的引导与塑造的同时，承担与我国国际地位相应的国际责任，合理要求应有的国际权力，提出合理的利益诉求。

Economically, a modern industrial system should support the high-quality development of Chinese-path modernization. The contest of economic strength is the key to great-power games and the foundation of competition in modernization. The history of human modernization has repeatedly proven that without a strong industry, there is no strength for a country or a nation. In particular, countries with strong manufacturing industries can have significant voice in the international economic system. In 2020, China’s total economic output had already reached about 70% of that of the United States, greatly exceeding the 60% strategic threshold set by the United States. At the same time, with a 27.7% share of manufacturing, China became the world’s largest manufacturing country. The United States has made “competing on the economy” a top priority in its rivalry with China. As the Biden administration promotes the “New Washington Consensus,” the so-called securitization orientation of U.S. economic and trade policy toward China is likely to continue to intensify, while other Western countries may also become more cautious in their economic cooperation with China. Against this backdrop, accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system supported by the real economy is crucial to whether we can win strategic initiative in future development and international competition. China should focus more on the key task of achieving new-type industrialization, actively adapt to and lead the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, promote the supplementation of chains for short-board industries, the extension of chains for advantageous industries, the upgrading of chains for traditional industries, and the establishment of chains for emerging industries, open up new fields and new tracks for development, organically combine the building of a manufacturing powerhouse with the development of the digital economy and industrial informatization, and use the development of new quality productive forces to build a strong material and technological foundation for Chinese-path modernization.

经济上，以现代化产业体系支撑中国式现代化高质量发展。经济实力的比拼是大国博弈的关键和现代化竞争的基石。人类现代化历史一再证明，没有强大的工业，就没有国家和民族的强盛。尤其制造业强的国家在国际经济体系中可以有很大的话语权。2020年中国经济总量已经占美国经济总量的70%左右，大大超过了美国60%的战略界限，同时，中国以27.7%的制造业份额比成为世界制造业第一大国。美国已经将“拼经济”作为与中国竞争的重中之重。随着拜登政府推行“新华盛顿共识”，美国对华经贸政策的所谓安全化取向恐将持续加剧，而其他西方国家在对华经济合作方面也可能会趋于谨慎。在此背景下，加快建设以实体经济为支撑的现代化产业体系，关系我们在未来发展和国际竞争中能否赢得战略主动。我国更应聚焦实现新型工业化这个关键任务，积极主动适应和引领新一轮科技革命和产业变革，推进短板产业补链、优势产业延链、传统产业升链、新兴产业建链，开辟发展新领域新赛道，把建设制造强国同发展数字经济、产业信息化等有机结合，以发展新质生产力为中国式现代化构筑强大物质技术基础。

In science and technology, we should take a path of self-reliance and self-strengthening in science and technology modernization characterized by “internal self-strengthening and external counterbalancing.” Science and technology, as one of the most important strategic forces of U.S. hegemony, are becoming the main battlefield of Sino-U.S. modernization competition and will be more closely linked to the overall game between China and the United States. The key for China to break through U.S. blockade and containment and win the initiative in the game is to have sufficient countervailing force in some basic research and key core technologies, actively seize the commanding heights of technological competition and future development, and make the first move to fight a proactive battle. At the same time, in a Sino-U.S. world increasingly defined by U.S. strategic competition, greater success can only be achieved on the basis of further opening up and strengthening ties with the external world.

科技上，走“内自强、外制衡”的自立自强科技现代化道路。科技作为美国霸权的最重要战略力量之一，正在成为中美现代化竞争的主战场，并将更紧密地与中美整体博弈相关联。中国破解美国封锁遏制并赢得博弈主动权的关键是，要在部分基础研究和关键核心技术上具备足够的反制力量，积极抢占科技竞争和未来发展的制高点，下好先手棋打好主动战。同时，在一个日益被美国战略竞争所定义的中美世界中，只有在进一步开放、加强与外部世界的联系的基础上，才能取得更大成功。

The development path of science and technology modernization lies in systematically building original innovation sources, accelerating breakthroughs in key core technologies, helping to achieve a leap in scientific and technological strength and international competitiveness, and thereby strongly supporting the goal of science and technology modernization. First, in the future, we should strengthen the national strategic scientific and technological forces, make precise efforts to promote breakthroughs in strategic and forward-looking major scientific issues, and strive to form a game pattern of “mutual restraint and mutual threat” in local areas. Second, we should firmly increase the intensity of opening up to the outside world, adopt a more proactive approach to actively integrate into the global innovation network, and form an international innovation cooperation layout with “important major countries” and “key small countries.” Taking common interests as a breakthrough point, we should strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation with “third-party forces” such as the European Union, ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea in economic and trade fields, and try our best to avoid falling into the dilemma of “leaning to one side” in the Sino-U.S. science and technology competition. Third, we should actively participate in and lead the risk governance and rule governance of current cutting-edge fields of science and technology, providing the world with “Chinese solutions,” “Chinese standards,” and Chinese talent. Through a more open immigration policy, we should attract outstanding scientists and innovation teams from around the world to develop in China. Finally, we should build a domestic gradient talent monitoring and reserve database, establish a national-level talent protection and restraint mechanism and a talent outflow risk assessment system, accurately grasp their development trends and tendencies, and do a good job in China’s science and technology security prevention work.

科技现代化的发展路径在于系统性打造原始创新策源地、加快突破关键核心技术，助力实现科技实力和国际竞争力的跃升，进而有力支撑科技现代化目标。首先，未来应强化国家战略科技力量，精准发力推动战略性、前瞻性重大科学问题突破，力争在局部领域形成“相互制约、相互威胁”的对等博弈格局。其次，要坚定地加大对外开放力度，采取更为主动的方式积极融入全球创新网络，与“重要大国”“关键小国”形成国际创新合作布局。以共同利益为突破点，加强与欧盟、东盟、日韩等“第三方力量”在经贸等领域的互利合作，尽力避免在中美科技竞争中陷入“一边倒”的困境。再次，积极参与和引领当前科技前沿领域的风险治理与规则治理，为世界提供“中国方案”“中国标准”和中国人才。通过更加开放的移民政策，吸引全世界优秀科学家、创新团队来华发展。最后，构建国内梯度人才监测储备库，建立国家级人才保护与约束机制以及人才流失风险评估体系，准确把握其发展动态和倾向，做好我国科技安全防范工作。

In finance, we should promote the construction of a world modern monetary system. For a long time, the United States, in the course of its financial modernization, has used its global financial hegemony to plunder world wealth, impose unilateral sanctions wantonly, and disrupt the international financial order. More and more countries and regions are reducing the use of the U.S. dollar in cross-border trade and investment, strengthening settlement in local currencies, and lowering the official reserves of the U.S. dollar. However, as an important international public good, the reform of the international monetary system is a typical collective action. Currently, developing countries still rely heavily on the “dollar system,” and the U.S. dollar still occupies a dominant position in international finance. According to data from the International Monetary Fund and other institutions, in the third quarter of 2023, the U.S. dollar accounted for nearly 60% of global foreign exchange reserves; in December 2023, the U.S. dollar accounted for about 40% of the global payment system. It can be seen that achieving the goal of a multipolar pattern of world currencies will be a long-term process.

金融上，推动构建世界现代化货币体系。长期以来，美国在金融现代化的历程中利用其全球金融霸权地位，攫取世界财富、滥施单边制裁，破坏国际金融秩序。越来越多的国家和地区在跨境贸易和投资中减少美元使用，加强本币结算，降低美元的官方储备。然而，作为一种重要的国际公共产品，国际货币体系的改革是典型的集体行动，当前发展中国家对“美元体系”的依赖仍旧很深，美元仍然处于国际金融的主导地位。根据国际货币基金组织等机构数据，2023年第三季度，美元在全球外汇储备中占比近60%;2023年12月，美元在全球支付体系中占比约40%。可见，要实现世界货币多极化格局目标，将会是一个长期过程。

China urgently needs to build a modern financial system oriented toward the world and compatible with the new development pattern, serving as the “leading switch” for guiding the effective allocation and optimal upgrading of resources. First, we should build diversified currency areas in key global regions, actively explore and attempt bilateral or multilateral forms of payment and settlement, promote bilateral local currency settlement based on the share of bilateral trade and investment, seek effective ways to circumvent the U.S. dollar sanction system, and improve a modern financial system with high adaptability, competitiveness, and inclusiveness. Second, we should strengthen and improve the construction of international infrastructure such as non-U.S. dollar cross-border payment and settlement. We should steadily promote the expansion of cross-border payment systems such as China’s CIPS, the EU’s INSTEX, and Russia’s SPFS, gradually dismantle the SWIFT monopoly controlled by the United States, and vigorously promote the “de-dollarization” process in key areas such as energy and bulk commodities, gradually loosening the “oil-dollar” binding system. Third, we should give full play to the innovative role of international digital currencies. As the application of digital currencies matures, a supranational “world currency” may emerge in some form and become the new core of the international monetary governance system.

我国亟需构建与新发展格局相适应的面向世界的现代化金融体系，作为引导资源有效配置和优化升级的“龙头开关”。一是在全球重点区域构建多元货币区，积极探索和尝试双边或多边的支付清算形式，根据双边的贸易投资份额，推进双边本币结算，寻找规避美元制裁体系的有效途径，健全具有高度适应性、竞争力和普惠性的现代化金融体系。二是应加强和完善非美元跨境支付结算等国际基础设施建设。稳步推进人民币CIPS、欧盟INSTEX、俄罗斯SPFS等跨境支付系统扩容，逐步瓦解美国操控的SWIFT独霸局面，要在能源和大宗商品等关键领域大力推动“去美元化”进程，让“石油-美元”绑定体系逐渐松解。三是充分发挥国际数字货币的创新作用。随着数字货币应用不断成熟，超主权的“世界货币”可能会以某种形式出现，并成为国际货币治理体系的新核心。

Militarily, the Asia-Pacific region should serve as the forefront of China’s modernization security. National security is the foundation of national rejuvenation. The 21st century is known as the “Asia-Pacific century.” As a vast cluster of countries accounting for 40% of the global population, and with economic output, economic growth, and total trade accounting for 53%, 70%, and 48% of the world respectively, the Asia-Pacific region is not only the power center of the current international system but also the area where Sino-U.S. interests are most intertwined and a stable sector in the global landscape. In the future, China should rely on mechanisms such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, continuously promote the regional governance practice of China’s global governance concepts in the Asia-Pacific cultural circle through pragmatic cooperation, and consolidate China’s dominant discourse power in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, we should build a modern maritime military force system, participate in international maritime cooperation and public service system construction, promote the effective connection of risk monitoring, assessment, early warning, and disposal links, and provide strategic support for safeguarding national sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, protecting China’s overseas interests, and promoting peace and development in the Asia-Pacific region.

军事上，以亚太区域为中国现代化安全的前沿。国家安全是民族复兴的根基。21世纪被誉为“亚太世纪”，作为人口总量占全球40%，经济总量、经济增长量和贸易总额分别占世界53%、70%和48%的庞大的国家集群区域，亚太地区既是当今国际体系的权力中枢，又是中美利益交融最突出的区域和全球格局中的稳定板块，中国未来应依托“一带一路”倡议、亚洲基础设施投资银行、上海合作组织和亚洲相互协作与信任措施会议等机制，通过务实合作不断推动中国全球治理理念在亚太文化圈的区域治理实践，巩固中国在亚太区域的主导话语权。同时，建设现代化海上军事力量体系，参与海洋国际合作和公共服务体系建设，推动风险监测、研判、预警、处置各环节有效衔接，为捍卫国家主权、统一、领土完整、维护我国海外利益和促进亚太和平发展提供战略支撑。

In governance, China joins with the Belt and Road Initiative and Global South countries to advance the transformation of world modernization governance. The “Global South” is a group of countries encompassing diverse values, cultural traditions, levels of development, and pluralistic interest demands. Against the backdrop of the accelerating changes unseen in a century, the collective rise of Global South countries has become an important force shaping the international political and economic landscape. They participate in global competition with an independent and autonomous posture, a stance of non-alignment and non-choice of sides, and actively engage in the reform and construction of the global governance system, prompting the unipolar international order under U.S. hegemony to show signs of yielding to a new international order of equality, pluralism, and inclusiveness. China shares a high degree of consistency with Global South countries in policy, concepts, and sentiment, and is a natural member of the Global South. For some time, the United States and the West have tried by every means to exclude China from developing countries and Global South countries. In response, China should, in its diplomatic strategy, firmly maintain its own positioning as a developing country, actively construct a Chinese version of the “Global South” narrative, seize the discourse power and leading role of the “Global South,” actively respond to the legitimate demands of Southern countries, and, through the strength of inter-state organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the BRICS, and the Group of 77, and using the Belt and Road Initiative, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB, expandable as the World Financing Bank, WFB), and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation as vehicles, in the Southeast Asian economic bloc, the Eurasian economy, and the African bloc, promote the implementation of the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative in developing countries, emerging economies, and countries jointly building the Belt and Road, construct a development system that breaks through the political, economic, and ideological alliances dominated by the United States, and drive changes in the global governance system in terms of rules, resources, and representation.

治理上，联合“一带一路”“全球南方”国家推进世界现代化治理变革。“全球南方”是一个包含了多样化的价值观念、文化传统、发展水平以及多元化利益诉求的国家群体。在世界百年未有之大变局加速演进的背景下，“全球南方”国家的群体性崛起，已成为影响国际政治经济格局的重要力量。他们以独立自主的姿态、不结盟和不选边站队的立场参与全球博弈，积极参与全球治理体系的改革和建设，促使美国霸权下的单极国际秩序显示出让位于平等、多元、包容的国际秩序新迹象。中国与“全球南方”国家在政策、理念和情感方面具有高度的一致性，是全球南方的天然成员。一段时间以来，美西方千方百计将中国排除在发展中国家及“全球南方”国家之外，对此我国更应在外交战略中坚定自身发展中国家的定位，积极构建中国版“全球南方”叙事，抢抓“全球南方”话语权和主导权，积极响应南方国家的合理诉求，在东南亚经济板块、欧亚经济、非洲板块，通过上海合作组织、金砖国家、77国集团等国家间组织机构的力量，以“一带一路”、亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB，可扩展为“世发行”，WFB）、中非合作论坛为载体，推动全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议与全球文明倡议在发展中国家、新兴经济体和“一带一路”共建国家的落实，构建冲破美国主导的政治、经济和意识形态联盟的发展体系，推动全球治理体系在规则、资源和代表性等方面发生变革。

Conclusion

结 语

The construction of modernization in the United States is a complex process that has brought enormous impact and inspiration to the world. The transformation of the United States into a modern society has both a certain continuity with the modernization process of Western European countries and great innovation. In the 19th century, the United States completed its transformation from a rural society to an urban society, from a peripheral country to a world power. In this process, territorial expansion, the development of the American West, technological and institutional innovation, an unprecedented growth in economic energy, the expansion of the domestic market, and many other factors and events intertwined, driving the profound transformation of American society and gradually making it one of the most highly modernized countries in the world.

美国的现代化建构是一个复杂的过程，为世界带来了巨大的影响和启示。美国向现代社会的转变，与西欧国家的现代化进程既有一定的承接关系，又有巨大的创新性。美国在19世纪完成了从乡村社会向城市社会、从边缘国家向世界大国的转变。在这个过程中，领土扩张、西部大开发、科技和制度创新、经济能量空前增长、国内市场拓展，等等，诸多因素和事件交织在一起，推动了美国社会的深刻转型，使其逐渐成为世界上现代化程度最高的国家之一。

The promotion and replication of American modernization have extremely obvious limitations; it is neither the endpoint of modernization nor the only path. The vast majority of countries that have copied American modernization and sought development according to its “roadmap” for modernization have not only failed to achieve modernization as the theory envisioned but have also lost their development autonomy, missed their development opportunity window, and thus fallen into a development trap. With the repeated failures of American modernization in practice around the world, the influence of classical modernization theory has gradually receded. Sociologist Daniel Bell’s *The Coming of Post-Industrial Society* and C. E. Black’s *Comparative Modernization* both explicitly oppose the view that modernization equals Westernization and that modernity is diametrically opposed to tradition, arguing that within the tradition of every society there is the possibility of developing modernity, and that modernization is a process of the continuous functional adaptation of traditional institutions and values to the demands of modernity. Complete copying of the Western model and total abandonment of one’s own tradition mostly cannot succeed.

美国现代化的推广、复制局限极为明显，其既不是现代化的终点，也不是唯一道路。照搬美国现代化、按照其现代化“路线图”寻求发展的国家，绝大多数不仅没有如理论所设想的那样实现现代化，反而失去了发展自主性，错过了发展机遇期，进而落入了发展陷阱。随着美国现代化在世界范围实践的屡屡失败，经典现代化理论的影响也逐渐退去。社会学家贝尔的《后工业社会的来临》和布莱克的《比较现代化》，均明确反对现代化即西化、现代性与传统性截然对立的观点，认为每个社会的传统性内部都有发展出现代性的可能，现代化是传统的制度与价值观念在功能上对现代性的要求不断适应的过程。完全照搬西方模式、全盘抛弃自己的传统，多数是不能成功的。

From the perspective of the New Era, modernization is both a worldwide trend and a form of civilizational progress, as well as a development goal. Chinese-path modernization began its exploration in the collision and conflict between modern Eastern and Western civilizations, took social revolution guided by advanced thought as its practical foundation, and continuously deepened the historical theme of adapting Marxism to the Chinese context and the needs of the times in the New Democratic Revolution, socialist revolution and construction, reform and opening up, and socialist modernization, possessing a distinct people-centered, practical, and comprehensive character. From the grand historical perspective of the development of human society, modernization is a process of change and development in production technology and the accompanying economic, political, cultural, and other aspects. Chinese-path modernization is modernization led by the Communist Party of China, possessing both the common characteristics of modernization in all countries and, more importantly, Chinese characteristics based on its own national conditions. Chinese-path modernization is the modernization of a huge population, the modernization of common prosperity for all people, the modernization of the coordination of material civilization and cultural-ethical progress, the modernization of harmony between humanity and nature, and the modernization of taking the path of peaceful development. Chinese-path modernization has great significance for the times, expanding the path for developing countries to achieve modernization.

站在新时代看，现代化既是一种世界性潮流，也是一种文明进步，还是一个发展目标。中国式现代化探索起步于近代东西方文明的冲突与碰撞，以先进思想指导下的社会革命为现实根基，在新民主主义革命、社会主义革命和建设、改革开放和社会主义现代化建设中不断深化马克思主义中国化时代化的历史主题，具有鲜明的人民性、实践性和全面性。从人类社会发展的大历史观来看，现代化是生产技术革新和与之相伴的经济、政治、文化等多方面的变化和发展的过程。中国式现代化是中国共产党领导的现代化，既有各国现代化的共同特征，更有基于自己国情的中国特色。中国式现代化是人口规模巨大的现代化、是全体人民共同富裕的现代化、是物质文明和精神文明相协调的现代化、是人与自然和谐共生的现代化、是走和平发展道路的现代化。中国式现代化具有重大的时代意义，拓展了发展中国家走向现代化的途径。

Chinese-path modernization is the fundamental path to realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, the correct path for the Chinese people to achieve common prosperity, and a broad road for promoting world peace and development. Chinese-path modernization can provide reference and inspiration for the modernization of most countries and populations in the world, open up a new path for developing countries to achieve modernization, and provide a new paradigm for the modernization of human society. The innovative breakthroughs in modernization theory and practice since the 18th National Congress of the CPC have successfully advanced and expanded Chinese-path modernization, providing new choices for humanity to achieve modernization and offering more Chinese wisdom, Chinese solutions, and Chinese strength for solving the common problems facing humanity. (Notes omitted)

中国式现代化是实现中华民族伟大复兴的根本之路，是中国人民走向共同富裕的正确道路，也是促进世界和平与发展的康庄大道。中国式现代化能够为世界大部分国家和人口的现代化提供参考和借鉴，开辟出一条发展中国家实现现代化的新道路，为人类社会的现代化提供了新范式。党的十八大以来在现代化理论和实践上的创新突破，成功推进和拓展了中国式现代化，为人类实现现代化提供了新的选择，为解决人类面临的共同问题提供了更多中国智慧、中国方案、中国力量。（注释略）

(The author is Executive Director of the China Modernization Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.)

（作者系中国科学院中国现代化研究中心执行主任，中国科学院大学经济与管理学院教授、博导）

Online Editor: Zhang Jian

网络编辑：张剑