New Trends in the Evolution of International Political Thought

The world today is undergoing changes unseen in a century. The international situation is treacherous and unpredictable, with politics, economics, culture and many other fields facing entirely new challenges and opportunities. Against this backdrop, the evolutionary trends of international political thought are of great significance for global development. Traditional mainstream currents of thought are gradually declining in the torrent of the times, while various new currents constantly emerge, develop and intermingle in a complex environment. These changes in thought, to varying degrees, latently influence international relations, the policy directions of various countries, and the trajectory of human society.

当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局。国际形势波谲云诡，政治、经济、文化等诸多领域面临全新挑战与机遇。在此背景下，国际政治思潮的演变态势对全球发展意义重大。传统主流思潮在时代洪流中逐渐式微，各类新思潮在复杂环境中不断兴起、发展、交融。这些思潮的变化不同程度地潜在影响着国际关系、各国政策走向以及人类社会的前行轨迹。

Traditional mainstream Western currents of thought such as neoliberalism are gradually declining

新自由主义等西方传统主流思潮日渐式微

Since the 1980s, the flaws of the Western capitalist institutional framework, which was gradually established and strengthened, have become increasingly apparent. Some traditional Western political currents of thought, such as neoliberalism, have fallen into the ideological anxiety and adjustment pressure of "sustainable capitalism." Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, many countries that championed neoliberal economic and social policies began to expose a series of adverse consequences, leading some scholars to launch critiques of neoliberalism. Since 2016, phenomena such as Trumpism and Brexit have further shaken the consensus foundation of neoliberalism's pursuit of so-called economic marketization, trade liberalization, political democratization and the small-government concept. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, Western countries represented by the United States have attempted to reshape the consensus on neoliberal values by strengthening alliance relations in the field of ideological identification, but have yet to find a stable and sustainable direction for rebuilding a consensus politics. On April 27, 2023, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan delivered a speech at the renowned think tank Brookings Institution titled "Remarks on Renewing American Economic Leadership," which thoroughly refuted the old Washington Consensus based on neoliberalism and explicitly called for reaching a "New Washington Consensus," marking the breaking of the "myth" of the neoliberal political system and indicating that neoliberalism faces fundamental challenges and crises. Conservatism, which holds views opposed to liberalism, has also come under heavy fire. The conservative political thought that once prevailed in Europe and the United States has suffered a major setback, placing conservative forces under enormous political pressure.

自20世纪80年代起逐步确立和强化的西方资本主义制度框架弊端日益显现，新自由主义等一些传统西方政治思潮陷入“可持续资本主义”意识形态焦虑与调整压力。自2008年国际金融危机爆发以来，很多推崇新自由主义经济、社会政策的国家开始暴露出一系列不利的后果，一些学者由此展开了对新自由主义的批判。2016年以来，特朗普主义和英国脱欧等现象进一步动摇了新自由主义追求所谓经济市场化、贸易自由化、政治民主化和小政府理念的共识基础。乌克兰危机爆发以来，以美国为代表的西方国家虽试图通过强化意识形态认同领域的同盟关系重塑新自由主义价值观的共识，但尚未找到一个稳定可持续的重建共识政治的方向。2023年4月27日美国国家安全事务顾问沙利文在著名智库布鲁金斯学会发表题为《重振美国经济领导地位》的演讲，对基于新自由主义的旧华盛顿共识进行了彻底批驳，明确提出要达成“新华盛顿共识”，标志着新自由主义政治制度的“神话”正在被打破，新自由主义面临根本性挑战和危机。与自由主义思潮观点相左的保守主义也同样备受诘难。在欧洲和美国曾经一度盛行的保守主义政治思潮受到重挫，导致保守主义力量面临巨大的政治压力。

Universal values encounter questioning, reflection and ebb tide

普世价值遭遇质疑反思和退潮

Along with the rupture of the neoliberal consensus, the "universal values" based on the neoliberal value system have also encountered increasing questioning. In recent years, Western citizens' trust in their governments has gradually declined, universal values have sparked controversy within Western countries themselves, and the liberal democratic values advocated by Western "universal values" are being impacted by the malfunction of democratic institutions and the return of the "whole-of-government" system, leading to a decline in the appeal of these values. Some third-world countries that have accepted Western universal values and their democratic political institutional models have experienced endless political strife and political instability. Meanwhile, the concept of free market competition is constrained by problems such as global development imbalances and widening wealth gaps, triggering a series of discussions on whether Western values have pushed developing countries into a "trap" of developmental stagnation. Respecting and recognizing the plurality, equality and diversity of civilizations, as well as the diversity of development paths, is gradually becoming an important consensus in the international community.

伴随着新自由主义共识的破裂，基于新自由主义价值体系的“普世价值观”也遭到了越来越多的质疑。近年来，西方民众对政府的信任逐渐走低，普世价值在西方各国内部引发争议，西方“普世价值”倡导的自由民主价值观正在经受民主制度失灵和“全政府”体制回归的冲击，价值观吸引力下降。一些接受西方普世价值及其民主政治制度模式的第三世界国家内部的政治纷争、政局动荡等情况也层出不穷，而自由市场竞争的理念又囿于全球发展失衡和贫富差距拉大等问题，引发一系列针对西方价值观是否将广大发展中国家推入发展停滞“陷阱”的讨论。尊重和认可文明的多元性、平等性、差异性，发展道路的多样性正逐渐成为国际社会的重要共识。

The trend of deglobalization is further spreading

逆全球化思潮进一步蔓延

In recent years, the trend of deglobalization has further developed. From the perspective of the development trend of deglobalization thought, on the one hand, Western politicians have externalized domestic political, social, economic and cultural crises. The tone of deglobalization thought has shifted from the protectionism and xenophobia of a few years ago to an increased emphasis on containment and bullying, tearing apart global common values and consensus. This has led to frequent phenomena such as mutual suspicion between countries, the incapacitation and failure of international organizations, and the paralysis of the international order. Deglobalization thought is causing the process of globalization to slow down or even partially reverse. On the other hand, as the influence of deglobalization thought ferments, contradictions between developed and developing countries, contradictions between countries, and contradictions between different societies and different social strata have all manifested to varying degrees. Governments may come to realize the unsustainability of deglobalization, and global cooperation remains the main pathway for addressing complex and volatile global problems. Governments will reassess the pros and cons of globalization, reflect on the impact of deglobalization thought, seek a more balanced and sustainable model of globalization development, promote reform of the global governance system, and better address the challenges brought by globalization.

近年来，逆全球化思潮进一步发展。从逆全球化思潮发展趋势来看，一方面，西方国家政客将国内政治、社会、经济、文化危机外部化，逆全球化思潮从几年前保护主义和排外主义基调，进一步增加了遏制、霸凌的色彩，撕裂全球共同价值与共识，使得国家间彼此戒备、国际组织失能失效、国际秩序停摆等现象频发，逆全球化思潮正在导致全球化进程放缓甚至部分逆转。另一方面，随着逆全球化思潮的影响发酵，发达国家与发展中国家的矛盾、国家与国家之间的矛盾，以及不同社会、不同阶层之间的矛盾都有不同程度的显现，各国政府可能会重新意识到逆全球化的不可持续性，全球合作仍是应对复杂多变的全球问题的主要途径。各国政府将重新评估全球化的利弊，反思逆全球化思潮的影响，寻求一种更加平衡和可持续的全球化发展模式，推动全球治理体系变革，更好地应对全球化带来的挑战。

The phenomenon of deglobalization is closely linked to the trend of statist thought. This round of deglobalization can be seen as a return of statist thought. As the negative effects of globalization become increasingly apparent, statist thought is becoming a world trend with growing influence on the current global political stage, profoundly affecting countries' attitudes toward globalization thought and driving the further development of deglobalization. First, deglobalization thought promotes the return of statist thought; second, statist thought drives the deepening development of a new round of deglobalization thought; finally, statist thought and deglobalization thought will continue to evolve. From the perspective of the development trend of statist thought, it will no longer be limited to emphasizing national interests and sovereignty, but will pay more attention to issues such as cultural identity and social development. At the same time, with the advancement of globalization, interactions between countries are becoming more complex, and the forms of expression of statist thought will become more diverse and complex.

逆全球化现象与国家主义思潮之间存在紧密的联系。本轮逆全球化可以被视为一种国家主义思潮的回归。随着全球化负面效应的不断显现，国家主义思潮正成为当前全球政治舞台上日益显现影响力的世界思潮，并深刻地影响各国对全球化思潮的态度，推动逆全球化进一步发展。首先，逆全球化思潮推动了国家主义思潮的回归；其次，国家主义思潮推动新一轮逆全球化思潮深化发展；最后，国家主义思潮和逆全球化思潮仍将不断演变。从国家主义思潮发展趋势来看，国家主义思潮将不再局限于强调国家利益和主权，而是更多地关注文化认同、社会发展等问题。同时，伴随全球化的推进，国家之间的互动也更加复杂，国家主义思潮的表现形式也将更加多样化和复杂化。

Western social democratic thought struggles for survival at the margins

西方民主社会主义思潮边缘求生

Currently, capitalist countries are facing increasingly prominent problems of political polarization, widening wealth and income gaps, social class differentiation and inequality. Against the backdrop of the severe challenge to the neoliberal consensus, widespread questioning of universal values, the endless emergence of extremist ideas, weakened national identity, and the prominence of identity politics, social democracy is seen as a choice for addressing the ills of capitalism. Through theoretical and practical exploration, social democrats attempt to reawaken people's attention to the concept of "community" from the perspective of communitarianism. As a moderate, neutral and reformist political thought, social democracy is a cumulative effect of the structural crisis of capitalism and a manifestation of capitalist countries searching for new political directions and breakthroughs. However, overall, social democracy remains on the margins of the development of Western political thought, with limited capacity to make its voice heard, and it is easily disrupted by sudden social and political events and suppressed by extremist ideas.

当前资本主义国家政治极化、贫富收入差距拉大、社会阶层分化和不平等现象日益突出，在新自由主义共识遭遇严重挑战、普世价值受到普遍质疑、极端思想层出不穷、国民认同削弱、身份政治凸显的情况下，民主社会主义被视为解决资本主义弊端的一种选择途径。民主社会主义者通过理论和实践探索，从社群主义的角度试图重新唤起人们对于“共同体”意识的关注。民主社会主义作为一种温和、中立改良的政治思潮，是资本主义结构性危机的累积效应，是资本主义国家正在寻找新的政治方向与突破的一种体现。但整体而言，民主社会主义依然处于西方政治思潮发展的边缘地带，其发声能力有限，且容易受到突发社会、政治事件的干扰，被极端思想压制。

The influence of ecological thought is increasingly rising

生态主义思潮影响力日益提升

Beginning in the 1970s, ecological thought, originating from environmentalism, gradually evolved from a concept advocated by non-governmental organizations into an important social thought that takes ecological protection as its goal, emphasizes social justice, pursues grassroots democracy, and reflects on the capitalist mode of production. Some countries have promoted the formation of related political parties, with Green parties in many countries performing prominently in electoral politics, the German Green Party being a typical case. Global ecological thought takes maintaining the stability of ecosystems and the well-being of all natural things as its fundamental starting point, "ecocentrism" as its philosophical foundation, and ecological priority, human rights and justice, grassroots democracy, and non-violence as its political principles. It focuses on the impact of the global ecological environment and governance on humanity, reflects on the relationship between humans and nature, and is committed to the reconstruction of human civilization order and the establishment of an "ecological society" for the sustainable development of humans and nature. It has rapidly become one of the most watched currents of thought. Ecological thought has gradually expanded from a narrow, shallow advocacy of reforming methods to address environmental problems into a broad, deep concern for fairness among people, between developed and developing countries, and between humans and other living beings in the Earth's biosphere. In its accelerated development and evolution, ecological thought has also given rise to debates between "deep green" and "light green," and ecological socialists attempt to use natural environmental issues to find socialist alternatives that critique capitalism.

从20世纪70年代开始，源自环境保护主义的生态主义思潮逐渐从非政府组织倡导的理念演变为一种以生态保护为目标、强调社会公平、追求基层民主、反思资本主义生产方式的重要社会思潮，一些国家推动了相关政党的组建，多国绿党在选举政治中表现突出，德国绿党是其中的典型案例。全球生态主义思潮以维护生态系统的稳定和自然万物的福祉为根本出发点，以“生态中心主义”为哲学基础，以生态优先、人权公正、基层民主、非暴力等为政治原则，聚焦全球生态环境和治理对人类的影响，反思人与自然之间的关系，致力于人类文明秩序的重构和人与自然可持续发展的“生态社会”的建立，迅速成为当前备受关注的思潮之一。生态主义思潮已经逐渐由狭义、浅层的主张以改革的方式应对环境问题，扩展为广义、深层的关照人与人、先发展国家与后发展国家、人与其他生物在地球生物圈中的公平问题的一种思潮。生态主义思潮在加速发展演化中，还产生“深绿”“浅绿”争论，生态社会主义者试图通过自然环境问题找寻批判资本主义的社会主义取代方案。

The rise of thought focusing on technological development and technological ethics

关注科技发展和科技伦理思潮兴起

The fourth scientific-technological industrial revolution has triggered complex discussions on science, technology, and technological ethics. In recent years, with the explosive growth of science and technology in fields such as artificial intelligence, big data, and the life sciences, the traditional humanist view that humanity stands above all things has been gradually broken down. Concepts such as “transhuman” and “posthuman” have successively returned to people’s field of vision, and the debate over “how science and technology can better serve humanity rather than bring disaster to humanity” is becoming increasingly heated. After the emergence of ChatGPT, many well-known scholars, prominent entrepreneurs, and some government officials in this field have expressed concerns about technological development, especially the development of large models in the field of artificial intelligence, not being controlled by human ethics and relevant regulations. Against the backdrop of science and technology becoming a major arena for great-power competition, currents of thought focusing on technological development and technological ethics are also influencing the domestic and foreign policies of various countries, especially policy formulation in the field of technological cooperation and competition. During Kissinger’s visit to China in July 2023, the discussions in his latest book *The Age of AI and Our Human Future*—that human society is not yet prepared for the disruptive changes AI will bring to the world order and that China and the United States urgently need to find a new correct way of getting along as soon as possible—once again attracted global attention. At the same time, extreme currents of thought related to technology are also rising. On the one hand, the connection between technology and national competitiveness is deepening, giving rise to a series of ideological variants such as technological hegemonism, techno-supremacism, technological nationalism, and anti-intellectualism. On the other hand, technological progress has also spawned extreme positions such as scientific populism.

第四次科技工业革命引发了对科学技术和科技伦理的复杂讨论。近年来，随着人工智能、大数据、生命科学等领域科学技术的爆发式增长，传统人本主义所秉持的人类凌驾于万物之上的观点被逐渐打破，“超人类”“后人类”等概念也相继复归于人们的视野中，围绕“科学技术如何更好地服务人类而不是为人类带来灾难”的探讨正变得越来越热烈。在ChatGPT出现后，很多该领域的知名学者、知名企业家和一些政府官员都表达了对科技发展，尤其是人工智能领域大模型发展不受人类伦理和相关监管控制的担忧。在科技成为大国竞争主要领域的背景下，关注科技发展和科技伦理的思潮也对各国内政外交政策，尤其是科技领域合作竞争的政策制定产生影响。在2023年7月基辛格访华期间，他的最新著作《人工智能时代与人类未来》中关于人类社会尚未准备好应对人工智能给世界秩序带来的颠覆性改变、中美亟须尽快找到新的正确相处之道的论述也再次引发世界各国的关注。同时与科技相关的极端思潮也在兴起，一方面，技术与国家竞争力之间的关联不断加深，形成了技术霸权主义、技术至上主义、技术民族主义和反智主义等一系列思潮变体；另一方面，科技进步也催生科学民粹主义等极端主张。

Currents of thought that attend to the overall interests of humanity tend to flourish and develop

观照人类整体利益的思潮趋于发展兴盛

Before the mid-20th century, currents of thought marked by class antagonism and national antagonism were very active. Imperialism and colonialism were the essential characteristics of the world currents of thought dominated by Western countries. After World War II, with the establishment of an international order centered on the United Nations, class contradictions and national contradictions tended to ease, and both within countries and between countries there was a pursuit of peace and development. Against this backdrop, world currents of thought tended to downplay class overtones and attend to global interests and the concerns of the whole of society. For example, currents of thought beneficial to human interests, such as social nationalism, globalization, and human rights, tended to flourish and became major factors influencing the political processes of many countries. Meanwhile, those currents of thought with an extreme and confrontational character, such as colonialism, militarism, and fascism, have largely withdrawn from the world stage. And currents of thought like hegemonism, which carry a hue of extreme nationalism, still have influence within a certain scope, but their role is limited and they face increasing resistance.

20世纪中叶以前，带有阶级对抗、民族对抗性的思潮十分活跃。帝国主义和殖民主义是西方国家主导世界思潮的本质特征。二战后，随着以联合国为核心的国际秩序的建立，阶级矛盾和民族矛盾趋于缓和，无论国家内部还是国家间都追求和平与发展。在此背景下，世界思潮趋向于淡化阶级色彩并观照全球利益和全社会利益关切，如社会民族主义思潮、全球化思潮和人权思潮等有利于人类利益的思潮发展都趋于兴盛，成为影响很多国家政治进程的主要因素。而那些带有极端性和对抗性思潮，如殖民主义、军国主义、法西斯主义都基本退出世界舞台。而像霸权主义这样带有极端民族主义色彩的思潮虽然在一定范围内仍有影响力，但发挥作用有限且遭到越来越多的抵制。

From the historical evolution of world currents of thought, those that attend to the overall interests of humanity—such as China’s proposed common values of all humanity and the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, the joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative—because they scientifically answer the questions of the times and the questions of the world, through the active exploration of creating a Chinese-path modernization path and creating a new form of human civilization, and because of their high degree of attention to human interests, possess broader adaptability and inclusiveness. They lead the direction of the development of the times and the progress of human civilization, promote a major shift in world currents of thought, and are being widely accepted by countries and international organizations around the world. These concepts and initiatives provide new perspectives and pathways for the development of international political thought, becoming the basic guidelines and action guides for constructing international relations, and they show a thriving development trend. In contrast, currents of thought with inherent antagonism, contradiction, conflict, or even extremism, while still influential in certain regional scopes, have limited influence and are generally on the decline. Overall, the development trend of international political thought depends on its contribution to the overall interests of humanity. Those world currents of thought that attend to the overall interests of humanity will gain increasing recognition and support, showing a flourishing development trend. Relatively speaking, world currents of thought that are too narrow and emphasize confrontation will gradually decline.

从世界思潮演进的历史来看，观照人类整体利益的思潮，如中国提出的全人类共同价值和人类命运共同体理念、共建“一带一路”倡议、全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球文明倡议等，由于其科学解答时代之问和世界之问，通过创造中国式现代化道路、创造人类文明新形态的积极探索，对人类利益的高度观照具有更加广泛的适应性和包容性，引领时代发展和人类文明进步发展方向，推动世界思潮发生重大转向，正在被世界各国和国际组织广泛接受，这些理念和倡议为国际政治思潮的发展提供了新的视角和路径，成为指导国际关系构建的基本遵循和行动指南，并呈现出欣欣向荣的发展趋势。而具有内在对抗性、矛盾性、冲突性甚至极端化的思潮虽然在一定地区范围内仍具影响力，但是影响有限，整体上趋于颓势。总体来看，国际政治思潮的发展趋势，取决于其对人类整体利益的贡献。那些观照人类整体利益的世界思潮将会得到越来越多的认同和支持，呈现出兴盛的发展趋势。相对而言，过于狭隘并且强调对抗性的世界思潮将会逐渐走向式微。

The interaction and interconnectedness of political currents of thought have clearly strengthened

政治思潮的互动联动性明显增强

Various political currents of thought are complexly interwoven and superimposed, and various extremist currents of thought show a tendency toward convergence, presenting a complex picture of the development direction of international political thought. First, Western ecological currents of thought are interconnected with nationalism, populism, hegemonism, etc., and ecological currents of thought have shown new trends of fission and degeneration, with global ecological imperialism beginning to take the historical stage. Second, the boundary between nationalism and far-right populism is becoming increasingly blurred, and nationalism is currently penetrating very rapidly into conservatism and populism. The nationalist and populist currents of thought in the new century mainly arise from middle-income countries and the middle class and labor groups in developed countries who have been marginalized in the process of globalization and thus feel dissatisfied. The impact of the global flow of populations, fragile fiscal and tax systems, and public crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic have caused the vertical dimension of populism induced by the opposition between “common people” and “elites” and the horizontal dimension of nationalism induced by the opposition between “our nation” and “other nations” to overlap, even showing a trend of convergence, deepening political polarization, intensifying domestic political contradictions, and promoting a reversal of foreign policy toward deglobalization. Because nationalism and populism lack clear theoretical construction and social policy positions, they easily combine with radical left-wing and right-wing currents of thought by leveraging hot-button events and prominent social contradictions, forming new forces of political mobilization around identity politics issues such as anti-immigration, anti-globalization, anti-regional economic integration, the ecological environment, climate, gender, sexuality, and body politics. Typical cases include the populist currents of thought in Western and Northern Europe that take harsh treatment of immigrants and opposition to European integration as their main demands, resource nationalist currents of thought in Latin America, and currents of thought combining racism and populism in the United States. The spread, dissemination, and deep convergence of racism with right-wing populism and extreme nationalism worldwide seriously disrupt the existing international order and bring many destabilizing factors to the ideological sphere. Third, under the wave of deglobalization, statist currents of thought have returned and show a tendency to converge with extremist currents of thought. In particular, some Western countries, using “national security” as a pretext, manipulate public opinion, intensify their inward-looking tendencies, oppose multiculturalism, advocate for the establishment of a strong state, produce hyper-nationalism and imperialism, undermine international consensus, and exacerbate strategic competition.

各种政治思潮之间复杂交织、叠加，各种极端主义思潮出现合流倾向，国际政治思潮发展走向呈现复杂图景。一是西方生态主义思潮与民族主义、民粹主义、霸权主义等相互联系，生态主义思潮出现了裂变蜕化的新动向，全球生态帝国主义开始登上历史舞台。二是民族主义与极右翼民粹主义之间的界限越来越模糊，民族主义当前也极为迅猛地渗透到保守主义、民粹主义当中。新世纪的民族主义和民粹主义思潮主要产生于在全球化进程中被边缘化从而产生不满的中等收入国家及发达国家中产阶级与劳工群体。人口全球化流动带来的冲击、脆弱的财税体系、新冠疫情等公共危机使得纵向维度“平民”与“精英”对立诱发的民粹主义思潮和横向维度的“本民族”与“外民族”对立诱发的民族主义思潮产生重叠，甚至产生合流的趋势，加深政治极化，激化国内政治矛盾，推动外交政策的逆全球化转向。由于民族主义、民粹主义缺少明确的理论建构和社会政策主张，因此它易于借助热点事件和突出社会矛盾与激进的左翼、右翼思潮结合，以反移民、反全球化、反区域经济一体化、生态环境、气候、性别、性向和身体政治等认同政治议题形成新的政治动员力量。典型案例包括西欧和北欧以苛刻对待移民和反对欧洲一体化为主要诉求的民粹主义思潮、拉美的资源民族主义思潮、美国种族主义与民粹主义结合的思潮等。种族主义与右翼民粹主义、极端民族主义在世界范围内的扩散、传播与深度合流，严重扰乱既有国际秩序，带来意识形态领域的诸多不稳定因素。三是在逆全球化浪潮下，国家主义思潮回归并出现与极端思潮合流倾向。特别是一些西方国家以“国家安全”为由，绑架民意，内顾倾向加剧，反对多元文化，主张建立强势国家，产生超级民族主义、帝国主义，破坏国际共识，加剧战略竞争态势。

[The author is a professor at the Institute of International Strategic Studies, Party School of the Central Committee of the CPC (National Academy of Governance).]

〔作者系中央党校（国家行政学院）国际战略研究院教授〕

Online editor: Huihui

网络编辑：慧慧