Value Theory, Crisis Theory, and the Contemporary World from a Marxist Perspective

Michael Roberts (1946- ), British Marxist economist. He has long been devoted to the study of Marxist economics and capitalist crises, publishing a large number of commentaries and analyses on Marxist economics and the world economy on his blog. He has published many monographs including "The Great Recession: Profit Cycles, Economic Crisis—A Marxist View" and "The Long Depression: Marxism and the Global Crisis of Capitalism".

迈克尔·罗伯茨(1946— ),英国马克思主义经济学家。他长期致力于马克思主义经济学和资本主义危机研究，在其博客中发表了大量关于马克思主义经济学和世界经济的评论和分析，已出版《大衰退：利润周期和经济危机——马克思主义的视角》(The Great Recession:Profit Cycles,Economic Crisis—A Marxist View)、《长期萧条：马克思主义与全球资本主义危机》(The Long Depression:Marxism and the Global Crisis of Capitalism)等多部专著。

1. Marx's Value Theory and Crisis Theory

一、马克思主义的价值理论与危机理论

○ (Qin Shiya, same below) Mr. Michael Roberts, hello! You have long been devoted to Marxist research and analysis of contemporary capitalism, with rich writings in these fields. In your understanding, what is the core idea of Marxism?

○ (覃诗雅，下同)迈克尔·罗伯茨先生，您好!您长期致力于马克思主义研究和当代资本主义分析，在这些领域著述丰富。在您的理解中，马克思主义的核心思想是什么?

● (Michael Roberts, same below) The core idea of Marxism can be reduced to two key propositions. First, "the history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles." According to historical materialism, all social changes are fundamentally driven by the material interests of classes, and the decisive role is played by the struggle between the ruling class (feudal lords, capitalist class, etc.) and the ruled class (especially the proletariat). Although individuals (such as kings or revolutionary leaders) can play a key role at certain moments of history, in the final analysis, change depends on economy and class. As Marx said: "Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under self-selected circumstances, but under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past."

● (迈克尔·罗伯茨，下同)马克思主义的核心思想可以归结为两个关键观点。第一，“至今一切社会的历史都是阶级斗争的历史”。根据唯物史观，一切社会变革根本上是由阶级的物质利益所驱动的，其中起决定性作用是统治阶级(封建领主、资本主义等)与被统治阶级(特别是无产阶级)之间的斗争。虽然个人(如国王或革命领袖)可以在历史的某些时刻发挥关键作用，但归根结底，变化取决于经济和阶级。正如马克思所说：“人们自己创造自己的历史，但是他们并不是随心所欲地创造，并不是在他们自己选定的条件下创造，而是在直接碰到的、既定的、从过去承继下来的条件下创造。”

Second, the law of value of capitalism shows that capitalism is a system of production serving the profit of the owners of the means of production, who exploit those who have nothing but their labor power. Labor creates all the goods and services we use and need, but the surplus value created by workers is expropriated by the owners of the means of production, the part of value that exceeds the wages workers receive for their work. This surplus value is accumulated as capital. Therefore, our social needs depend on whether capitalists find it profitable. This explanation of the operation of modern economy is denied by the apologists of capitalism, but the facts are irrefutable.

第二，资本主义的价值规律表明，资本主义是为生产资料所有者的利润服务的生产体系，这些生产资料所有者剥削那些除了劳动力之外一无所有的人。劳动创造了我们使用和需要的所有物品和服务，但劳动者创造的剩余价值却被生产资料所有者剥夺，这部分价值超出了劳动者为其工作所获得的报酬。这些剩余价值作为资本被积累起来。因此，我们的社会需求取决于资本家是否认为有利可图。这种对现代经济运行的解释被资本主义的辩护者所否认，但事实是无可辩驳的。

○ Crisis theory is an important component of Marx's critique of political economy. There has been considerable debate among Marxist researchers about how to define Marx's crisis theory. How do you understand Marx's crisis theory, and the relationship between overproduction, underconsumption, and the falling rate of profit?

○ 危机理论是马克思政治经济学批判的一个重要组成部分。关于如何界定马克思的危机理论，在马克思主义研究者内部引起了不少论争。您如何理解马克思的危机理论，以及生产过剩、消费不足和利润率下降之间的关系?

● Marx's theory of crisis of capitalism is very important. The apologists of capitalism deny that there is any inherent crisis in the capitalist mode of production, that is, regular and recurring slumps in production, investment, and employment. For them, these crises are either random events or one-off events, or the result of wrong decisions, speculation, or negligence. The apologists deny that crisis is inherent in the capitalist mode of production that pursues profit.

● 马克思关于资本主义的危机理论非常重要。资本主义的辩护者否认资本主义生产方式存在任何固有危机，即生产、投资和就业方面经常性和反复出现的衰退。对他们来说，这些危机要么是随机事件或一次性事件，要么是错误决策、投机或疏忽的结果。辩护者否认危机是追求利润的资本主义生产方式所固有的。

But Marx's law of value theory reveals why regular crises are universal. Capitalist production is carried out only if profit is obtained, and Marx shows that there is a contradiction between the drive for more production and the rate of profit on production (i.e., profit relative to invested capital). Capitalists compete for market share and to extract more surplus value. To gain a competitive advantage, they constantly adopt more labor-saving technologies to reduce costs and increase labor productivity. But Marx argues that profit originates only from workers engaged in labor; therefore, if more and more funds are invested in constant capital such as machinery rather than variable capital (labor power), productivity may increase, but at the cost of a falling rate of profit, and eventually the rate of profit may fall sharply, leading to a fall in total profit. Then capitalists stop investing, close production lines, lay off workers, and as unsold goods and services increase, unemployment rises, which is a recession. This can only be corrected by raising the rate of profit again, which requires eliminating unnecessary workers, weak companies, and lowering wages. Then the whole process starts again. Recession is the necessary "clearing" process for capital recovery.

但马克思的价值规律理论揭示了为什么经常性的危机是普遍存在的。资本主义生产只有在获得利润的情况下才会进行，而马克思表明，在追求更多的生产和生产的利润率(即相对于投入资本的利润)之间存在矛盾。资本家为争夺市场份额和榨取更多剩余价值而展开竞争。为了获得竞争优势，他们不断采用更加节省劳动力的技术来降低成本，提高劳动生产率。但马克思认为，利润只来源于从事劳动的工人，因此，如果越来越多的资金投向机器等不变资本而不是可变资本(劳动力)时，生产率可能会提高，但代价是利润率下降，最终，利润率可能会大幅下降，从而导致总利润下降。然后，资本家会停止投资，关闭生产线，解雇工人，随着未售出的商品和服务增多，失业率上升，这就是衰退。只有通过再次提高利润率才能纠正这种情况，这就需要淘汰不必要的工人、疲弱的公司，并压低工资。然后整个过程会重新开始。衰退是资本复苏所必要的“清理”过程。

Marx outlined his crisis theory most clearly in Volume 3, Chapters 13–15 of "Capital". However, many Marxists do not consider the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall explained in these chapters to be relevant to capitalist crises. Instead, they consider two other main theories.

马克思在《资本论》第3卷第13—15章中最清晰地概述了他的危机理论。然而，许多马克思主义者并不认为这些章节中解释的利润率下降趋势的规律与资本主义危机有关。相反，他们考虑了另外两个主要理论。

One is the underconsumption theory of crisis. This refers to the fact that workers cannot buy back all the goods and services produced by capitalists because they do not have enough money. Marx and Engels questioned this underconsumption theory, pointing out that workers will never have enough money to buy back all the products being sold, because wages do not contain all the value created and realized, and the capitalists have already appropriated all the surplus value (i.e., the difference between the value of the goods sold and the workers' wages, in other words, profit). The key point is that capitalists do not need to sell all their goods to workers—many goods are sold to other capitalists (for example, steel is sold to automobile manufacturers to make cars, etc.).

一个是消费不足的危机理论。这是指工人因为没有足够的钱而无法买回资本家所有的商品和服务。马克思恩格斯对这种消费不足理论提出了质疑，指出工人永远不会有足够的钱买回所有正在出售的产品，因为工资不包含创造和实现的所有价值，资本家已经占有了所有的剩余价值(即出售商品的价值与工人工资之间的差额，换句话说，就是利润)。关键是资本家不需要把他们所有的商品都卖给工人——很多商品是卖给其他资本家的(例如，钢铁被卖给汽车制造商用来制造汽车等)。

The other is the overproduction theory of crisis. Capitalists simply produce to accumulate more profit, without considering whether they can sell their products on the market. There is overproduction relative to demand. The problem with this theory of crisis is that it does not explain when production becomes "overproduction." It may never happen, or it may happen at any time.

另一个是生产过剩的危机理论。资本家只是一味地生产以积累更多的利润，而不考虑是否能在市场上出售他们的产品。相对于需求，过度生产了。这种危机理论的问题在于，它没有解释生产在什么时候变成了“过度生产”。这可能永远不会发生，也可能随时发生。

In other words, if supply matches demand, will investment and production crises still occur in capitalism? Marx thought that because the rate of profit on the produced products determines whether capitalists invest. In fact, crisis arises in this way. The rate of profit falls, then total profit falls, and then capitalists try to sell more products to compensate for the falling profit. But this means overproduction, forcing capitalists to reduce prices and/or cut production. Overproduction is the result of overaccumulation of capital (i.e., a falling rate of profit on invested capital), not the reverse.

换句话说，如果供给与需求相符，资本主义中是否仍然会出现投资和生产危机?马克思认为，因为生产出来的产品的利润率决定了资本家是否投资。事实上，危机就是这样出现的。利润率下降，接着总利润下降，再接着资本家试图卖出更多产品来弥补下降的利润。但这意味着生产过剩，迫使资本家降低价格和/或减产。生产过剩是资本过度积累(即投资资本的利润率下降)的结果，而不是相反。

○ In 2020, you published the book "Engels 200 Years: Engels' Contribution to Political Economy", which systematically introduces Engels' research on political economy and his contribution to Marxist political economy. There is a view that the idea that the falling rate of profit leads to crisis is actually Engels' view, and that he exaggerated or even distorted Marx's exposition of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall when editing Volume 3 of "Capital". How do you view this view?

○ 您在2020年出版了《恩格斯200年：恩格斯对政治经济学的贡献》一书，系统介绍了恩格斯的政治经济学研究及其对马克思主义政治经济学的贡献。有一种看法认为，利润率下降导致危机这一观点实际上是恩格斯的观点，并指责他在编辑《资本论》第3卷时夸大甚至篡改了马克思关于利润率下降趋势的论述。您如何看待这种看法?

● Some Marxists, especially the German Marxist scholar Michael Heinrich[1]1 Michael Heinrich: German Marxist scholar who argues that Engels distorted Marx's theory of the falling rate of profit when editing Volume 3 of Capital., have put forward this view. They claim to have read Marx's unpublished manuscripts, which clearly show that Engels modified Marx's exposition, making the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall appear more important. These Marxists also claim that Marx actually abandoned this law in the 1870s, so it should not be regarded as a theory relevant to Marxist economics and crisis.

● 一些马克思主义者，特别是德国马克思主义学者米夏埃尔·海因里希(Michael Heinrich)提出了这一观点。他们声称阅读了马克思未发表的手稿，这些手稿清晰地表明恩格斯对马克思的论述进行了修改，使得利润率下降趋势的规律显得更加重要。这些马克思主义者还声称，马克思实际上在19世纪70年代就放弃了这一规律，因此其不应被视为与马克思主义经济学和危机相关的理论。

This is completely nonsense. Other scholars have clearly shown that Engels did not distort any of Marx's texts, such as Chapters 13–15 of Volume 3 of "Capital" (which expound the law of the rate of profit), nor is there any evidence that Marx abandoned this law in the 1870s; on the contrary, he conducted further research on this law in many places. For example, in the 1870s, Marx spent a lot of time studying the rate of profit using various formulas. When Engels set out to edit Volume 3 of "Capital", he did not include Marx's mathematical research on the rate of profit, although this research could have proved that Marx still adhered to the law of the rate of profit. All of this is discussed in detail in my two books "Marx 200 Years: A Review of His Economics after the Bicentennial of Marx's Birth" and "Engels 200 Years: Engels' Contribution to Political Economy", with full references.

这完全是无稽之谈。其他学者已经清楚地表明，恩格斯并没有对马克思的文本，如《资本论》第3卷第13—15章(这些章节阐述了利润率规律),进行任何歪曲，也没有证据表明马克思在19世纪70年代放弃了这个规律，相反，他在很多地方对这一规律进行了进一步的研究。例如，在19世纪70年代，马克思花了大量时间运用各种公式来研究利润率。当恩格斯着手编辑《资本论》第3卷时，他未纳入马克思关于利润率的数学研究，尽管这些研究本可以证明马克思仍然坚持利润率规律。所有这些在我的《马克思200年：在马克思诞辰200周年后对其经济学的回顾》和《恩格斯200年：恩格斯对政治经济学的贡献》两本书中得到了详细论述，并附有全部参考文献。

The Marxists who promote this view also distort Marx's law of value theory into a monetary theory, i.e., value is not created by labor in the production process, but can only be created by selling the produced goods on the market. Therefore, no sale, no value. This is not Marx's view. Value is the result of human labor effort in the production process; how much value is ultimately realized depends on the sale of goods on the market. But without human labor production, there is no value. And this revised theory attempts to replace the rate of profit as the cause of crisis with theories of monetary or credit instability, similar to the views of mainstream economists such as Keynes.

宣扬这一观点的马克思主义者还把马克思的价值规律理论曲解成一种货币理论，即价值不是在生产过程中由劳动创造的，而只能通过在市场上出售生产的商品来创造。因此，没有销售，就没有价值。这不是马克思的观点。价值是生产过程中人类劳动努力的结果；最终实现多少价值取决于市场上商品的销售情况。但是，没有人类的劳动生产，就没有价值。而这种修正的理论试图用货币或信贷不稳定理论取代利润率作为危机的原因，这与凯恩斯等主流经济学家的观点相似。

○ In your view, what are the main differences between Marxist economics and other schools of economics (such as neoclassical economics, Keynesianism, etc.)? Can crisis theory be regarded as an important difference, even an essential difference, between Marxist economics and mainstream Western economics?

○ 在您看来，马克思主义经济学与其他经济学派(如新古典经济学、凯恩斯主义等)的主要区别是什么?危机理论可否看作马克思主义经济学与西方主流经济学的一个重要区别甚至本质区别?

● The most important difference is that other schools of economics, even the most radical "heterodox" schools that do not admit that markets are perfect, all do not recognize Marx's law of value theory. They neither recognize that the main contradiction of capitalist production is that production is for profit rather than social needs, nor do they believe that the increase in production will eventually conflict with the increase in the rate of profit, leading to cyclical fluctuations of boom and slump (i.e., crisis).

● 最重要的区别是，其他经济学派，甚至那些不承认市场是完美的最激进的“非正统”学派，均不认同马克思的价值规律理论。他们既不承认资本主义生产的主要矛盾在于为利润而非社会需要进行生产，也不认为生产的增加最终会与利润率的增加发生冲突，从而导致繁荣和衰退(即危机)的周期性波动。

The mainstream school denies that crises can occur in a market that is operating normally or is not interfered with by government, monopoly enterprises, or trade unions. Heterodox economists deny the role of profit in crisis, and instead turn to John Maynard Keynes' theory of deficient demand, Hyman Philip Minsky's financial instability theory, or Paul Marlor Sweezy and Joseph Eugene Stiglitz's monopoly theory, or poor regulation.

主流学派否认在正常运行或者不受政府、垄断企业或工会干预的市场中会发生危机。非正统经济学家则否认利润在危机中的作用，而是将目光投向凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的需求不足理论，明斯基(Hyman Philip Minsky)的金融不稳定理论，或者斯威齐(Paul Marlor Sweezy)、斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Eugene Stiglitz)的垄断理论，或者监管不善。

This is a crucial difference, because all these schools believe that capitalism can be made to function better by improving or perfecting capitalist production. Keynes thought that increasing government spending or injecting money would work; the heterodox economist Minsky thought that by regulating banks and financial institutions, the capitalist economy could be kept stable. These reformist methods are both theoretically and empirically wrong. Marx's crisis theory shows that capitalism cannot be reformed in this way. Crises are endemic in the capitalist system because they are ultimately caused by the falling rate of profit. The only way to end crises is to replace capitalism with a planned economy under common ownership, i.e., to eliminate the capitalists.

这是一个至关重要的区别，因为所有这些学派都认为，可以通过改进或完善资本主义生产，使资本主义运行得更好。凯恩斯认为，增加政府支出或注入货币能奏效；非正统经济学家明斯基认为，通过监管银行和金融机构，资本主义经济就能保持稳定。这些改良主义方法在理论上和经验上都是错误的。马克思的危机理论表明，资本主义无法以这种方式进行改革。危机在资本主义体系中是普遍存在的，因为它们最终是由利润率下降引起的。结束危机的唯一方法是用共有制(common ownership)下的计划经济取代资本主义，即消除资本家。

2. Financialization of Capitalism and Its Consequences

二、资本主义金融化及其后果

○ In your research, what impact has the financialization of capitalism had on the real economy and the working class?

○ 在您的研究中，资本主义金融化对实体经济和工人阶级产生了什么影响?

● Over the past 50 years, one characteristic of the modern economies of the Global North has been the rise of the financial sector, not only banks, but also hedge funds, investment funds, insurance funds, private equity, cryptocurrencies, etc. More and more capitalists are converting their accumulated profits into financial assets and speculative capital, rather than investing in new technologies and productive sectors. This is the phenomenon of "financialization."

● 过去50年，全球北方的现代经济的一个特征就是金融业的崛起，不仅是银行，还有对冲基金、投资基金、保险基金、私募股权、加密货币等的发展。越来越多的资本家将他们积累的利润转换为金融资产和投机资本，而不是投资于新技术和生产部门。这就是“金融化”现象。

However, some Marxists and others have become so fascinated by this development that they begin to claim that capitalism has changed its face. It is no longer a production system that extracts profit by exploiting labor power in factories, offices, etc., but a financial monetary system where money begets money. This means that workers are no longer the value producers in the capitalist system. Now capitalists obtain value merely through monetary magic. Capitalism has evolved into financial capital that dominates productive capital.

然而，一些马克思主义者和其他一些人却对这种发展如此着迷，以至于开始声称资本主义已经改变了自身的面貌。它不再是一个通过剥削工厂、办公室等场所的劳动力来获取利润的生产体系，而是一个钱能生钱的金融货币体系。这意味着工人也不再是资本主义体系中的价值生产者。现在资本家仅仅通过货币戏法就能获得价值。资本主义已经演变成支配着生产资本的金融资本。

This is also nonsense. Although financial profits in some economies such as the United States and the United Kingdom are very large, even as high as 25% of total profits, the vast majority of profits are still obtained by selling goods and services produced by workers. Especially in the Global South, manufacturing is the dominant industry, not finance. Globally, the working class has never been so large, and capitalist accumulation still comes mainly from the labor of working people in the production sphere. Capitalism has not changed its face.

这也是无稽之谈。尽管美国和英国等一些经济体的金融利润很大，甚至高达总利润的25%,但绝大多数利润仍然是通过出售工人生产的商品和服务获得的。特别是在全球南方，制造业是主导产业，而不是金融业。全球范围内，工人阶级的规模从未如此庞大，而且资本主义积累仍然主要来自生产领域劳动人民的劳动。资本主义并未改变它的面貌。

○ How do you view the capitalist crisis in the current global economic system, especially the financial crises in recent years?

○ 您如何看待当前全球经济体系中的资本主义危机，特别是近年来的金融危机?

● This is a big question. In the 21st century, we have experienced the two largest recessions in the history of capitalism, namely 2008–2009 and 2020. We have good reason to expect that another recession will occur before the end of the current decade. This recession may be triggered by a new financial crisis, like 2008. However, this time the collapse may not start from banks, but from the increasing corporate debt and the cost of servicing it. Currently, in Europe, Japan, and the United States, about 20% of companies are called "zombie enterprises," which are like walking corpses, because their profits are not even enough to pay the interest cost on existing debt, so they have to keep borrowing. These companies face serious bankruptcy risks, and may even set off a chain reaction that drags down profitable companies.

● 这是一个大问题。在21世纪，我们经历了资本主义历史上最大的两次衰退，分别是2008—2009年和2020年。我们有充分的理由预计，在最近一个十年末之前，还会再发生一次衰退。这次衰退可能会像2008年那样，由一场新的金融危机引发。不过，这一次崩溃可能不是从银行开始的，而是由不断增加的公司债务和偿还债务的成本引起的。目前，在欧洲、日本和美国，已有大约20%的公司被称为“僵尸企业”,它们如同行尸走肉，因为它们的利润甚至不足以支付现有债务的利息成本，因此不得不继续借贷。这些公司面临着严重的破产风险，甚至可能会产生连锁反应，拖垮盈利的公司。

○ You distinguish between "recession" and "depression," arguing that since the end of the Great Recession in 2009, the major capitalist economies have been in a long depression. How is this long depression different from previous long depressions in capitalist history? What strategies should China adopt to deal with the global impact of the long depression?

○ 您区分了“衰退”与“萧条”,认为自2009年大衰退结束以来，主要资本主义经济体一直处于长期萧条之中。这次长期萧条和资本主义历史上以往的长期萧条有什么不同吗?中国应该采取什么策略来应对长期萧条的全球影响?

● I define a depression as a period, as opposed to a recession or slump, in which after a recession, the growth trend of output, investment, and most importantly the rate of profit is far below the pre-recession level. This slower growth trend may last for decades. In this sense, the long depression I propose after the second decade of the 21st century is similar to the depression of the late 19th century, i.e., 1873–1897[2]2 The depression of 1873–1897: A long-term economic depression in the late 19th century, beginning with the Panic of 1873 and lasting about two decades., and the Great Depression of 1929–1942[3]3 The Great Depression of 1929–1942: The global economic depression that began in 1929 and continued into World War II.. The current depression continues, because the recession triggered by the pandemic in 2020 did not bring an increase in the rate of profit, so investment growth and real GDP growth are even weaker than in the second decade of the 21st century.

● 我把萧条(depression)定义为与衰退(recession或slump)相对的一个时期，即在衰退之后，产出、投资以及最重要的利润率的增长趋势远低于衰退前的水平。这种较慢的增长趋势可能会持续数十年。从这个意义上说，我所提出的21世纪第二个十年以后的长期萧条与19世纪末即1873—1897年的萧条和1929—1942年的大萧条相似。当前的萧条仍在持续，因为2020年疫情引发的衰退并未带来利润率的提高，因此投资增长和实际GDP增长甚至比21世纪第二个十年更弱。

China has avoided all these capitalist crises. This is because China's economy is dominated by a large state-owned sector and is planned by the government, so that it can overcome any instability in the capitalist sector, allowing investment and production to proceed relatively uninterrupted. If the Western capitalist economies fall into recession again, China's trade and investment will be hit, but China now has a huge domestic base, has invested heavily in new technologies, and continues to guide and plan these investments mainly through the state-owned sector. China needs to expand the state-owned sector and planning to reduce the instability of the capitalist sector, especially the instability exposed by the slump in the real estate industry.

中国避免了资本主义的所有这些危机。这是因为中国的经济以大型国有部门为主导，并由政府进行规划，从而能够克服资本主义部门的任何不稳定因素，使投资和生产得以相对不间断地进行。如果西方资本主义经济再次陷入衰退，那么中国的贸易和投资将受到打击，但中国现在拥有庞大的国内基础，已经在新技术上投入了大量资金，并继续主要通过国有部门指导和规划这些投资。中国需要扩大国有部门和计划，以减少资本主义部门的不稳定性，特别是房地产行业暴跌所暴露的不稳定性。

○ Digital currency and blockchain technology are hot topics in the field of fintech in recent years. They have had a profound impact on the global economy and financial system. How do you evaluate these financial innovations and the digital transformation of finance? Could they lay the groundwork for a more serious global economic crisis?

○ 数字货币和区块链技术是近年来金融科技领域的热门话题，它们对全球经济和金融体系产生了深远的影响。您如何评价这些金融创新和金融数字化转型?它们会不会埋下更严重的全球经济危机的隐患?

● So-called cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, are just another form of speculative financial asset, like gold or paintings. They are not an alternative form of currency that can replace state-issued money (fiat money) such as the US dollar or the renminbi. Generally speaking, digital currency already exists in one form: you can pay bills by credit card, mobile phone, or bank transfer without involving any paper notes. A possible new development will be a central bank digital currency that bypasses commercial banks. So far, this development has been limited. At the same time, cryptocurrencies are another form of what Marx called "fictitious capital," which increases the risk of a future financial collapse.

● 所谓的加密货币，如比特币，只是另一种形式的投机性金融资产，就像黄金或画作一样。它们不是可以取代国家发行的货币(法定货币)如美元或人民币等的替代性货币形式。一般来说，数字货币已经以一种形式存在，即你可以通过信用卡、手机或银行转账来支付账单，而不涉及任何纸币。可能的新发展将是一种绕过商业银行的中央银行数字货币。到目前为止，这一发展进展有限。与此同时，加密货币是马克思所说的“虚拟资本”的另一种形式，这增加了未来发生金融崩溃的风险。

○ From a Marxist perspective, why is it necessary to critically understand the nature and role of financial capital?

○ 从马克思主义视角出发，为什么必须批判性地认识金融资本的性质和作用?

● If we use Marxism to analyze the laws of operation of financial capital, we will not naively believe that financial investment can be a sure thing without loss. We must be alert to the systemic risks of financial markets. A thorough understanding of the operation of this financial beast can help Marxists see more clearly the fragility and speculative nature of the entire capitalist system.

● 如果运用马克思主义分析金融资本的运作规律，就不会天真地认为金融投资能稳赚不赔。必须警惕金融市场的系统性风险。透彻理解这头金融巨兽的运作方式，能帮助马克思主义者更清晰地洞察整个资本主义体系的脆弱性与投机本质。

3. Digital Capitalism or Techno-feudalism?[4]4 Techno-feudalism: A view that digital platforms create a relationship akin to that between feudal lords and serfs, with rent replacing profit as the main form of accumulation.

三、数字资本主义还是技术封建主义?

○ Today, with the increasing prevalence of artificial intelligence and automation, how can Marxism be used to analyze the impact of technological progress on the mode of production and social relations? In your research, what is the relationship between technological progress and economic growth?

○ 在人工智能和自动化日益普及的今天，如何运用马克思主义来分析技术进步对生产方式和社会关系的影响?在您的研究中，技术进步和经济增长之间的关系是什么?

● This is complicated. Artificial intelligence (AI) is just a new form of technology aimed at replacing human labor, increasing labor productivity, and thus raising the rate of exploitation of labor by capital. New technology may lead to massive unemployment, especially for the industries and occupations it replaces, but over time it may also create new industries and job opportunities. Think of the Industrial Revolution, the electrical revolution, the automobile industry, the computer revolution. Increasing labor productivity through technology has always been the key to economic growth, especially when the size of the labor force stops growing, as in China today.

● 这很复杂。人工智能(AI)只是一种新的技术形式，旨在取代人类劳动，提高劳动生产率，从而提高资本对劳动的剥削率。新技术可能导致大量失业，尤其是对那些被它取代的行业和职业来说，但随着时间的推移，它也可能创造新的行业和就业机会。想想工业革命、电力革命、汽车工业、计算机革命。通过技术提高劳动生产率，一直是经济增长的关键，尤其是在劳动力规模停止增长的情况下，就像今天的中国。

Some people believe that artificial intelligence is a completely new development that will completely replace human labor because it can replace human intelligence. But the evidence for this claim is dubious. Most AI is just rapid processing of existing human knowledge and cannot replace the imagination in human intelligence. Moreover, AI will take time, even decades, to spread its productivity-enhancing effects throughout the economy. In my view, it is not a "game changer" that can save capitalism.

有人认为，人工智能是一种全新的发展，将完全取代人类劳动，因为它可以替代人类的智力。但这种说法的证据令人怀疑。大部分人工智能只是对人类现有知识的快速处理，并不能取代人类智力中的想象力。此外，人工智能还需要一段时间，甚至会长达几十年，才能将其提高生产力的影响扩散到经济体中。在我看来，它不是一个能够拯救资本主义的“游戏规则改变者”。

● Techno-feudalism is a view that has emerged in recent years, used to describe the social changes brought about by cloud technology, i.e., tech giants and large platform enterprises hold data and power like feudal lords, while ordinary users, as unpaid data producers, serve these digital overlords like serfs, and new forms of rent replace profit as the main form of accumulation. Do you agree with using techno-feudalism to define the current stage of development of Western society?

○ 技术封建主义是近年来兴起的一种观点，用来描述云技术引起的社会变革，即科技巨头和大型平台企业像封建领主一样掌握数据和权力，而普通用户作为无偿的数据生产者如农奴一般服务于这些数字霸主，新形式的租金取代利润成为积累的主要形式。您是否认同以技术封建主义来定义当前西方社会的发展阶段?

● Techno-feudalism as a concept means that the capitalist mode of production, i.e., the mode of production that generates profit by exploiting labor, has been replaced by a kind of feudalism in which digital monopolies merely extract rents. But where do these rents come from? Marx pointed out that ground rent, interest, and profit all come from the same source: the appropriation of surplus value created by human labor.

● 技术封建主义作为一个概念意味着，资本主义生产方式，即通过剥削劳动力来获取利润的生产方式，已经被一种封建主义所取代，在这种封建主义中，数字垄断只是榨取租金。但这些租金从何而来?马克思指出，地租、利息和利润都来自同一个来源，即占有人类劳动力创造的剩余价值。

It is wrong to think that companies selling cloud technology are not producing commodities for sale and profit like any capitalist process. Most of Amazon's profit comes from the distribution and transportation of goods; most of Facebook's and Google's profit from advertising; most of Microsoft's and Apple's profit from the sale of computer hardware and software. This is not feudalism, but outright capitalism. Capitalism is not dead; thinking that capitalism is dead is a dangerous idea for workers, because it means workers may regard not the whole of capital but only a small part of it as the enemy, thus believing that there is no need to replace capitalism but only to replace "feudal monopoly" capitalism.

认为销售云技术的公司不像任一资本主义过程那样生产用于销售和盈利的商品，这一观点是错误的。亚马逊的大部分利润来自商品的配送和运输；脸书和谷歌的大部分利润来自广告；微软和苹果的大部分利润则来自计算机硬件和软件的销售。这不是封建主义，而是彻头彻尾的资本主义。资本主义并未消亡，认为资本主义已死对工人来说是一个危险的想法，因为这意味着工人可能不是把整个资本，而只是资本的一小部分视为敌人，从而认为不需要取代资本主义，而只需取代“封建垄断”资本主义。

○ The labor theory of value is a core idea of Marxist economics. In the era of automation and digital economy, how is the labor theory of value re-interpreted or applied to modern economic analysis? How do you view data as a new factor of production?

○ 劳动价值论是马克思主义经济学的核心思想。在自动化和数字经济时代，劳动价值论是如何被重新诠释或应用于现代经济分析的?您如何看待数据成为一种新的生产要素?

● Data or knowledge originates from human activity. Therefore, knowledge, like material wealth, has value for society and capital. Knowledge is material; it requires the energy of human labor, i.e., mental labor, just as material wealth requires the energy of physical labor. Both are material and both can create value. Therefore, capital can obtain surplus value from the knowledge workers it employs, and this is increasingly common across industries and worldwide. This surplus value is manifested in patents, intellectual property, etc.

● 数据或知识来源于人类活动。因此，知识就像物质财富一样，对社会和资本具有价值。知识是物质性的，它需要人类劳动的能量，即脑力劳动，这与物质财富需要体力劳动的能量是一样的。两者都是物质性的，都能创造价值。因此，资本可以从其雇用的知识劳动者那里获得剩余价值，而且这种情况在各个行业和世界范围内日益普遍。这种剩余价值体现在专利、知识产权等方面。

○ Some scholars argue that the increase in "immaterial labor" such as "digital labor," "intellectual labor," and "affective labor" poses a challenge to the traditional concept of the proletariat, and propose new concepts such as "the multitude" to replace the original concept. What do you think of this view?

○ 一些学者认为，“数字劳动”“智力劳动”“情感劳动”等非物质劳动的增加，对传统无产阶级的概念构成了挑战，并提出如“诸众”这样的新概念来代替原有的概念。您如何看待这一观点?

● Knowledge labor or mental labor is as material as physical labor. Mental activity occurs in the synapses of the human brain and is combined with physical labor through the use of computers, etc. Therefore, mental labor can create value just as physical labor does. Knowledge workers, like physical workers, are part of the proletariat. In fact, capitalists are increasingly exploiting mental workers to extract surplus value (profit). Hence, there is no need to invent a new term for the working class, such as "the multitude." This term implies that the working class—those who live only by selling their physical labor and own no means of production—no longer exists. This word obscures the class struggle between labor and capital, thereby confusing the necessity of replacing capitalism.

● 知识劳动或脑力劳动与体力劳动一样是物质性的。脑力活动发生在人脑的突触中，并通过使用电脑等方式与体力劳动相结合。因此，脑力劳动和体力劳动一样能创造价值。知识劳动者和体力劳动者一样，都是无产阶级的一部分。事实上，资本家正在越来越多地剥削脑力劳动者，以攫取剩余价值(利润)。因此，没有必要为工人阶级发明一个新的术语，比如“诸众”。这意味着工人阶级，那些只靠出卖体力为生而没有生产资料的人，已经不存在了。这个词掩盖了劳资之间的阶级斗争，从而混淆了取代资本主义的必要性。

○ Has the rise of digital capitalism exacerbated the North-South divide in the global economy?

○ 数字资本主义的兴起是否加剧了全球经济的南北鸿沟?

● Yes, it is indeed widening this gap. But this gap has been widening anyway. By whatever measure—per capita GDP, productivity per worker, per capita income, reduction of inequality—the Global South (excluding China) has not caught up with the Global North. The North-South gap is reflected in a relatively small imperialist economic bloc controlling the rest of the world's population.

● 是的，它确实在扩大这种差距。但无论如何，这种差距都在扩大。不管从哪个角度衡量，如人均GDP、每个工人的生产率、人均收入、减少不平等方面，全球南方(中国除外)都没有赶上全球北方。南北差距体现在一个人口相对较少的帝国主义经济集团控制着世界上人口众多的其他地区。

IV. Trump and Economic Imperialism

四、特朗普和经济帝国主义

○ After Trump takes office again, what economic policies do you think he will adopt? What impact will these policies have on the global economic landscape?

○ 您认为特朗普再度执政后会采取什么样经济政策?这些政策将对全球经济格局产生什么样的影响?

● We cannot be sure what Trump will do. But he has said that he will impose high tariffs on U.S. imports, especially those from China. He claims his goal is to restore the former glory of American industry at the expense of the rest of the world. Most importantly, he wants to continue the policies of previous U.S. administrations to contain, obstruct, and reverse China's economic development, as China is seen as the main threat to U.S. hegemony. In fact, Trump will also support further military provocations to constrain China.

● 我们无法确定特朗普会怎么做。但他表示，他将对美国进口商品征收高额关税，特别是来自中国的进口商品。他声称，他的目标是以牺牲世界其他地区为代价，让美国工业重回昔日的辉煌。最重要的是，他希望延续前几届美国政府的政策，遏制、阻挠和逆转中国的经济发展，因为中国被视为美国霸权的主要威胁。事实上，特朗普还将支持进一步的军事挑衅来限制中国。

Domestically, his goal is to cut corporate taxes, make the rich and big businesses pay less tax, and repeal regulations on industry and on reducing global warming emissions. His cabinet is entirely composed of hedge fund billionaires and private equity managers who will seek to benefit the rich at the expense of the majority of Americans.

在国内，他的目标是削减企业税，让富人和大企业支付更少的税款，并废除对工业和全球变暖减排的监管。他的内阁完全由对冲基金亿万富翁和私募股权经理组成，这些人将寻求以牺牲大多数美国人的利益为代价来让富人受益。

Globally, if Trump does implement these policies, world trade will decline, and tensions between the U.S.-led Western alliance and China will dangerously escalate. Wealth and income inequality between countries and within countries will widen, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East will continue, and the risk of war in Asia will increase.

在世界范围内，如果特朗普确实推行了这些政策，那么世界贸易将衰退，美国领导的西方联盟与中国之间的紧张关系将危险升级。国家之间和国家内部的财富和收入不平等将会扩大，乌克兰和中东的战争将会持续，亚洲爆发战争的风险也将增加。

○ Will Trump's promised economic policies, such as massive tax cuts and increased military spending, lead to a rise in global debt levels and thus pose a threat to the stability of the global economy?

○ 特朗普承诺的经济政策，如大规模减税和增加军费开支等，是否会导致全球债务水平上升，从而对全球经济的稳定性构成威胁?

● Yes, global debt has reached record highs relative to global output. In particular, the U.S. government is facing huge budget deficits due to funding the war in Ukraine and aiding Israel, and plans to substantially increase military spending to finance further actions worldwide. Trump wants Europe to bear more of the costs, but meanwhile, U.S. public debt has climbed to an all-time high, and the interest cost of servicing this debt now exceeds government spending on education, healthcare, and other public services.

● 是的，相对于全球产出，全球债务已经达到创纪录的高位。特别是，美国政府因资助乌克兰的战争和援助以色列正面临巨额的预算赤字，并计划大幅增加军事开支，为全球范围内的进一步行动提供资金。特朗普希望欧洲为此承担更多费用，但与此同时，美国的公共债务已攀升到历史新高，偿还这些债务的利息成本现在已经超过了政府在教育、医疗和其他公共服务方面的支出。

All this occurs against a global backdrop of sluggish economic growth and trade, weak investment, and slow productivity growth. With the possible exception of the United States, the major capitalist economies are stagnant or even in outright recession, especially in Europe. These economies are highly likely to face a severe recession by the end of the latest decade, spreading to the rest of the world, as happened in 2008 and 2020. Only China is expected to weather this storm.

这一切都是在经济增长和贸易低迷、投资乏力、生产率增长缓慢的全球背景下发生的。可能除了美国外，主要资本主义经济体均陷入停滞，甚至处于彻底的衰退之中，欧洲的情况尤为严重。这些经济体极有可能在最近一个十年末面临严重衰退，并蔓延至世界其他地区，正如2008年和2020年所发生的情况那样。唯有中国有望渡过这一难关。

○ Do Trump's economic policies reflect the rise of economic nationalism and protectionism in the context of economic globalization? Will these policies exacerbate global economic inequality? How should developing countries address inequality in the global economic system?

○ 特朗普的经济政策是否反映了经济全球化背景下经济民族主义和保护主义的兴起?这些政策会加剧全球经济不平等吗?发展中国家如何应对全球经济体系中的不平等问题?

● Protectionism and nationalism in other countries are not alternatives to Trump's policies. Developing countries need to unite and cooperate in trade, investment, and reducing inequality. But to do this, the people of these countries must have a government that represents the common ownership of labor, resources, and assets to plan each economy and cooperate globally.

● 其他国家的保护主义和民族主义不是特朗普政策的替代方案。发展中国家需要团结起来，在贸易、投资和减少不平等方面进行合作。但要做到这一点，这些国家的人民必须有一个代表劳动者以及资源与资产共同所有权的政府来规划每个经济体，并在全球范围内进行合作。

○ You have been writing a blog for a long time. How has this writing style influenced your thinking and exchange of ideas? Can you share your recent research or future research plans?

○ 您长期坚持写博客，这种写作风格对您的思考和思想交流产生了什么影响?可以分享一下您最近的研究或未来的研究计划吗?

● This blog and my books aim to increase our understanding of how capitalism operates, its contradictions, and its fissures, with the hope of eventually replacing it. I find Marx's analysis of capitalism the most compelling, so I try to defend Marx's views against all alternative views that aim to make capitalism work better.

● 这个博客和我的书旨在增加我们对资本主义的运行方式、矛盾和裂痕的理解，以期最终取代它。我认为马克思对资本主义的分析最具说服力，因此我试图捍卫马克思的观点，反对所有那些旨在试图让资本主义运行得更好的替代性观点。

The target audience of my blog is not academics, but activists seeking to make the world a better place. This does not mean I ignore difficult or complex issues in theory or statistical evidence. On the contrary, I try to explain these issues more clearly.

我的博客的目标受众不是学者，而是那些寻求让世界变得更美好的活动家。这并不意味着我忽略了理论或统计证据中困难的或复杂的问题。相反，我会尝试更清晰地解释这些问题。

Currently, I am preparing a new book about what is happening in capitalism and the world economy in the 2020s. It is actually a sequel to my 2016 book The Long Depression. Much has happened since then, and even more will happen in the next decade.

目前，我正在准备一本新书，讲述21世纪20年代资本主义和世界经济正在发生什么。这实际上是我2016年出版的《长期萧条》一书的续篇。自那以后发生了很多事情，而未来十年还会发生更多的事情。

(Author: Journalist from the Institute of Marxism, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

（作者：本刊记者中国社会科学院马克思主义研究院）

Online Editor: Tongxin

网络编辑：同心