Several Theoretical Issues That Need Attention in Developing New Quality Productive Forces

On January 31, 2024, during the eleventh collective study session of the Political Bureau of the Party Central Committee, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized that “high-quality development requires guidance from new theories on productive forces, and new quality productive forces have already taken shape in practice and demonstrated a strong driving and supporting force for high-quality development, requiring us to summarize and generalize them theoretically in order to guide new development practices.” The formation of new quality productive forces will inevitably break through old paradigms of science and technology, patterns of factor allocation, and forms of industrial organization; it is the result of the contradictory movement of the economy and society, and at the same time exerts a major impact on the socio-economic formation. In studying new quality productive forces theoretically, in addition to examining micro-level theoretical issues such as the technological characteristics, industrial traits, and market features of their emergence, it is even more necessary to fully understand, from a macro perspective of economic and social development, the laws and logic of their historical development, the trends and processes of technological paradigms, and the adaptability of relations of production.

2024年1月31日，习近平总书记在中共中央政治局第十一次集体学习时强调，“高质量发展需要新的生产力理论来指导，而新质生产力已经在实践中形成并展示出对高质量发展的强劲推动力、支撑力，需要我们从理论上进行总结、概括，用以指导新的发展实践”。新质生产力的形成必定突破旧的科学技术范式、要素配置模式、产业组织形式，是经济社会矛盾运动的结果，同时对社会经济形态产生重大影响。在理论上研究新质生产力，除了研究其产生的技术特质、产业特性、市场特征等微观层面的理论问题之外，更需从经济社会发展的宏观角度充分认识其历史发展的规律与逻辑、技术范式的趋势与进程、生产关系的适应性。

Fully Understand the Historical Conditions and Realistic Foundations for the Formation of New Quality Productive Forces

充分认识新质生产力形成的历史条件和现实基础

Scientific and technological progress is an important force driving the development of productive forces; scientific and technological revolutions and industrial revolutions are the most significant factors promoting the progress of productive forces. Every leap forward in productive forces in modern human history has been accompanied by scientific and technological revolutions and industrial revolutions. Scientific and technological progress is the deepening of humanity’s understanding of nature. Nature exists objectively; as long as humanity persists in its unremitting efforts to understand nature, scientific and technological revolutions will inevitably occur, followed by industrial revolutions. Therefore, the emergence of industrial revolutions has historical inevitability. However, scientific and technological revolutions can only induce industrial transformation under suitable economic conditions and social systems. In fact, before each previous industrial revolution occurred, the scientific and technological revolution related to that industrial revolution had already taken place. For example, during the First Industrial Revolution, the interval between the two was as long as a century. The reason for this is that after a scientific and technological revolution appears, an industrial revolution requires accompanying changes in factor prices, market system evolution, and social system transformation in certain countries or regions before it can emerge in response to the times, take the lead in forming new productive forces, and thereby greatly promote the economic and social development of those localities.

科技进步是推动生产力发展的重要力量，科技革命和产业革命是促进生产力进步最重要的因素，人类近现代史上历次生产力的跨越式进步都伴随着科技革命和产业革命的发生。科技进步是人类对自然认识的深化，自然界是客观存在的，只要人类保持对自然认识不懈的努力，就必定会产生科技革命，随后形成产业革命，因此产业革命的产生具有历史必然性。但是，科技革命只有在适宜的经济条件与社会体制下才能诱发产业变革。其实在历次产业革命发生之前，与产业革命相关的科技革命就已经发生了，比如第一次工业革命时二者间隔的时间长达百年。之所以如此，就是因为科技革命出现后，产业革命需要伴随某些国家或地区的要素价格变化、市场体系嬗变、社会体系变革才能应运而生，并率先形成新兴的生产力，进而极大促进当地经济社会的发展。

A new round of scientific and technological revolution, focused on artificial intelligence, clean energy, unmanned control, quantum information, virtual reality, and biotechnology, has already begun; the Fourth Industrial Revolution is underway. The inevitability of the development of new quality productive forces, spurred by this new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution, has already become apparent. The greatest characteristic of this round of industrial revolution is that it is advancing simultaneously among the world’s major countries. Various countries have accelerated the implementation of national strategies to foster new industrial revolutions, such as the United States’ “Advanced Manufacturing Partnership,” Germany’s “Industry 4.0,” Japan’s “Revitalization Strategy,” France’s “New Industrial France,” and the United Kingdom’s “High Value Manufacturing Strategy.” In layman’s terms, the world has entered a “breakthrough battle” for the birthplace of the industrial revolution.

以人工智能、清洁能源、无人控制、量子信息、虚拟现实和生物技术为重点的新一轮科技革命业已开启，第四次产业革命正在发生，由新一轮科技革命和产业革命催生的新质生产力发展的必然性已经显现。此轮产业革命的最大特点就是在世界主要国家之间同步推进，各国纷纷加快实施催生新产业革命的国家战略，比如美国的“先进制造业伙伴计划”、德国的“工业4.0”、日本的“再兴战略”、法国的“工业新法国”、英国的“高价值制造战略”等。通俗地讲，全球已进入争夺产业革命策源地的“突破战”。

From China’s perspective, developing the new quality productive forces brought about by this new round of industrial revolution has significant advantageous conditions. In terms of human resources, the demographic dividend of China’s medium- and high-end talent is gradually emerging; the domestic market is enormous, ranking among the top in the world, with clear advantages in the scale of the commodity market, and the scale of factor markets such as capital, technology, and data is rapidly expanding. In terms of industrial equipment and supporting facilities, China’s industrial chain has a complete structure and long links, and the digital transformation of industrial equipment is relatively fast; the numerical control rate of key processes in industrial enterprises above the designated size has reached 55.3%, and the penetration rate of digital R&D tools has reached 74.7%. However, in practice, it also faces some difficulties and challenges. For example: the number of leading and top-tier talents needed to meet the demands of developing new quality productive forces is still insufficient; the factor market still has problems such as insufficiently unified institutional rules, unsmooth flow of factor resources, and an incomplete commodity and service quality system, which impose certain constraints on utilizing the huge scale of the market to promote the development of new quality productive forces; the penetration rate of digitalization and intelligence in traditional industries is insufficient, and the level of digital equipment varies greatly across industries. For this reason, China needs to accelerate the market-oriented allocation reform of factors, release new human resource dividends, raise the digitalization level of industrial equipment, and guide market consumption upgrades, thereby forming the basic conditions and advantages that better support the formation and development of new quality productive forces.

从我国看，发展由新一轮产业革命所带来的新质生产力拥有显著的优势条件，在人力资源方面，我国中高端人才数量红利逐步显现；国内市场规模巨大，位居世界前列，商品市场规模优势明显，资本、技术、数据等要素市场规模迅速扩大；在产业的装备和配套方面，我国产业链结构全、链条长，且工业装备数字化转型较快，规模以上工业企业关键工序的数控化率已达到55.3%，数字化研发工具的普及率达到74.7%。但在实践中也面临一些困难和挑战，比如：满足发展新质生产力需求的领军和顶尖人才数量依然不足；要素市场仍存在制度规则不够统一、要素资源流动不够畅通、商品服务质量体系不够健全等问题，对利用庞大规模市场促进新质生产力发展构成了一定约束；传统行业数字化、智能化渗透率不足，数字化装备水平在行业间差距较大。为此，我国需要通过加快要素市场化配置改革、释放新的人力资源红利、提升产业装备数字化水平、引导市场消费升级等方式，形成更好地支撑新质生产力形成和发展的基础条件和优势。

Fully Understand the Gradual Nature of Innovation and the Recurrent Nature of Technology in the Formation of New Quality Productive Forces

充分认识新质生产力形成的创新渐近性和技术反复性

The development of things proceeds in waves and spirals upward; technological innovation in human history has also been full of twists and turns, exhibiting characteristics of recurrence and gradualism. The scientific and technological innovation that forms new quality productive forces is not ordinary applied technological innovation, but rather innovation in basic science, cutting-edge technology, and disruptive technology with enormous potential. Historically, the application of some breakthrough technologies has exhibited recurrent characteristics. For example, in the 15th century, breech-loading cannons were widely popular due to their fast loading and high rate of fire, but because materials and craftsmanship were inadequate, sealing and accuracy were persistent problems; consequently, they were once completely replaced by muzzle-loading cannons. After the mid-19th century, with the invention of the breechblock solving the sealing problem and the use of rifling greatly improving the accuracy of breech-loading cannons, breech-loading cannons once again replaced muzzle-loading cannons as the mainstream technology. Furthermore, because different countries adopt different technological routes in innovation, competition among technological routes arises, which also causes technological innovation and its application to evolve in a spiraling upward manner. For instance, during the Second Industrial Revolution, electrical scientists like Edison believed that electric vehicles would replace steam-driven cars as the mainstream; by the 1930s, as the fuel vehicle technology route of companies like Ford gradually dominated the market, the electric vehicle technology route almost disappeared; but today, with the continuous improvement of electricity storage technology, electric vehicles have once again become a new mainstream technology route.

事物发展是波浪式前进和螺旋式上升的，人类历史上的技术创新也是一波三折的，呈现出反复性和渐进性的特征。形成新质生产力的科技创新不是一般性的技术应用创新，而是具有巨大潜力的基础科学、前沿技术和颠覆性技术的创新。从历史看，一些突破性技术的应用存在反复性的特征。比如，15世纪时后膛炮装填快、射速高，曾广泛流行，但由于材料和工艺不到位，其密封和精度一直是难以解决的问题，因此一度被前膛炮完全取代；19世纪中叶后，随着炮闩的发明解决了密封问题，同时膛线的使用大幅提升了后膛炮的精度，后膛炮又取代了前膛炮成为技术主流。此外，由于各国在创新中的技术路线不同，形成了技术路线竞争，也使得技术创新及其应用是在螺旋上升中演进的。比如，在第二次产业革命过程中，爱迪生等电力科学家认为电动车将取代蒸汽驱动的汽车成为主流；到了20世纪30年代，随着福特等汽车公司的燃油车技术路线逐步统治市场，电动车技术路线几乎销声匿迹；但时至今日，随着储电技术的不断提升，电动车又一次成为新的主流技术路线。

Currently, the general direction of technological innovation in key industrial sectors is basically the same across countries, but based on their own industrial foundations, technological inertia, market characteristics, and national conditions, they have chosen different technological routes. For example, in the technological path chosen for the new energy vehicle industry, some countries have chosen a pure electric drive technology route, some have chosen a hybrid power technology route, and others are accelerating the layout of a hydrogen-electric drive technology route. As another example, in the field of artificial intelligence, many countries have chosen an interactive technology route oriented toward individuals, while some countries, including China, have chosen an empowering technology route oriented toward industry. As yet another example, in the development of electricity plus computing power, the United States has chosen a technology route of separate development for the two, leading to computing power growth being constrained by insufficient electricity; whereas China is accelerating the promotion of a “green electricity + computing power” technology route, which is highly likely to blaze a sustainable development path amid the surge in computing power demand. Whether a country can win the competition among technological routes is related to whether it can take the lead in new industrial tracks and lead the global development of productive forces.

当前，各国在重点产业领域的技术创新方向上基本一致，但又根据本国的产业基础、技术惯性、市场特点、国情特征，选择了不尽相同的技术路线。比如，在新能源汽车产业选择的技术路径上，有的国家选择了纯电驱动的技术路线，有的国家选择了混合动力技术路线，还有的国家正在加速布局氢电驱动技术路线。再如，在人工智能领域，许多国家选择了面向个人的交互型技术路线，而包括我国在内的一些国家则选择了面向产业的赋能型技术路线。又如，在电力加算力发展上，美国选择了二者分离发展的技术路线，导致算力增长受到电力不足的约束；而我国正在加快推进“绿电+算力”的技术路线，很有可能在算力需求激增的情况下走出一条可持续发展的道路。能否赢得技术路线的竞争，关系到各国是否能在产业新赛道上率先超出，引领全球生产力的发展。

China is one of the countries that recognized and began promoting the new round of scientific and technological revolution relatively early, focusing on strengthening scientific and technological innovation and promoting the development of productive forces at the two levels of digitalization and greening. As the competition in the world’s new round of scientific and technological revolution becomes increasingly fierce, we must fully recognize the gradual nature of technological innovation and the possible recurrent nature of technological route selection, give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, better play the role of the government, efficiently utilize both domestic and international markets, and take fewer detours, reduce costs, and seize the first opportunity in the process of forming new quality productive forces. Utilize the new type of nationwide system [1]1 "Both hands grasping firmly" (两手抓、两手都要硬) is a Chinese political slogan originating from the reform and opening up era, meaning to give equal attention and effort to two complementary tasks or aspects of work. to select the right tracks, concentrate forces to strengthen the tackling of key core technologies, explore while promoting, and accelerate the construction of pilot projects for major breakthrough technology applications. Give play to the important role of the market in the allocation of scientific and technological resources, prevent various localities from rushing headlong into mass action and duplicate construction in developing new quality productive forces, safeguard and stimulate the vitality of various innovation entities, promote the continuous improvement of the capacity to transform scientific and technological achievements, and drive the optimization and adjustment of technological routes in emerging industries and future industries through market competition. Strengthen international cooperation through expanding opening up, accelerate the construction of a new pattern of scientific and technological opening up and cooperation that is comprehensive, multi-level, and wide-ranging, ensure the dynamic adjustment and mutual integration of technological routes amid competition and cooperation, and avoid the standard gaps and rule barriers brought about by competition among technological routes.

我国是全球较早认识并推进新一轮科技革命的国家之一，重点在数字化和绿色化两个层面强化科技创新和促进生产力发展。随着世界新一轮科技革命的竞争日益激烈，我们要充分认识到技术创新的渐进性和可能存在的技术路线选择的反复性，充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用，更好发挥政府作用，高效利用好国内与国外两个市场，在新质生产力的形成过程中少走弯路、降低成本、抢得先机。利用新型举国体制选好赛道，集中力量加强关键核心技术攻关，边摸索边推广，加快重大突破性技术应用试点建设。发挥市场在科技资源配置中的重要作用，防止各地在发展新质生产力方面一哄而上、重复建设，维护和激发各类创新主体的活力，促进科技成果转化能力不断提升，通过市场竞争推动新兴产业和未来产业领域技术路线的优化调整。通过扩大开放强化国际合作，加快构建全方位、多层次、宽领域的科技开放合作新格局，在竞争合作中确保技术路线的动态调整与相互融合，避免技术路线竞争带来的标准鸿沟和规则壁垒。

Fully recognize the mutual adaptation and dynamic interaction between productive forces and relations of production in the formation of new quality productive forces

充分认识新质生产力形成中生产力与生产关系的相互适应和动态互动

Productive forces determine relations of production, and relations of production react upon productive forces; the two have a dialectically unified relationship. Historically, the new development of productive forces brought about by scientific and technological revolutions inevitably leads to changes in relations of production, and changes in relations of production in turn promote the further sustained development of new productive forces. The new development of productive forces then places demands on the further optimization of relations of production. There exists a relationship of mutual adaptation and dynamic interaction between the two.

生产力决定生产关系，生产关系反作用于生产力，二者具有辩证统一的关系。从历史看，科技革命促生的新的生产力发展必然带来生产关系的变革，而生产关系的变革又会促进新的生产力进一步持续发展，生产力新的发展又对生产关系进一步优化提出要求，二者之间存在相互适应和动态互动的关系。

In this round of industrial revolution, China, by accelerating the development of new quality productive forces driven by the digital economy, artificial intelligence, and the like, has promoted changes in the sphere of relations of production, giving rise to new economic forms such as the sharing economy and platform-based organizations. This change has in turn promoted the development of productive forces. However, some factors within this dynamic adjustment have become constraints on the further development of productive forces, such as the data monopolies existing on some digital platforms, or the widening of income distribution gaps brought about by the application of digital technologies. This indicates that the development of new quality productive forces determines the emergence of new types of relations of production, and these relations in turn react upon the development of new quality productive forces. Factors that are not adapted to the further development of new quality productive forces should be adjusted as soon as possible, in order to promote the sustainable development of new quality productive forces.

此轮产业革命中，我国通过加快发展以数字经济、人工智能等为引擎的新质生产力，促进了生产关系领域的变革，出现了共享经济、平台型组织等新的经济形态，这种变革反过来又促进了生产力的发展，但其中仍有一些因素在动态调整中成为生产力进一步发展的约束，比如一些数字平台存在的数据垄断，又如数字技术应用带来的收入分配差距扩大，等等。这表明，新质生产力的发展决定了新型生产关系的出现，这种关系又反作用于新质生产力的发展，对于其中不适应新质生产力进一步发展的因素要尽快调整，以促进新质生产力的可持续发展。

From the perspective of promoting the adjustment of relations of production through changes in the mode of production, and the dynamic changes in relations of production that in turn promote the development of new quality productive forces, China should insist on simultaneously advancing the development of the digital economy and improving regulatory norms, with both hands grasping firmly. [1]1 "Both hands grasping firmly" (两手抓、两手都要硬) is a Chinese political slogan originating from the reform and opening up era, meaning to give equal attention and effort to two complementary tasks or aspects of work. It should prevent the excessive appropriation of labor surplus by digital capital monopolies and platform data monopolies, promote digital technology as a powerful driver for building harmonious labor relations and industrial relations, protect the legitimate rights and interests of workers in the digital economy and the broad masses of consumers, and at the same time further enable the smooth flow and efficient allocation of all types of advanced and high-quality factors of production toward the development of new quality productive forces.

从生产方式变革推进生产关系调整以及生产关系动态变化进而促进新质生产力发展来看，我国应坚持推动数字经济发展和完善监管规范两手抓、两手都要硬，防止数字资本垄断和平台数据垄断对劳动剩余的过度占有，促进数字技术成为构建和谐劳动关系和产业关系的有力推手，保护数字经济从业人员和广大消费者的切身权益，同时进一步让各类先进优质生产要素向发展新质生产力顺畅流动和高效配置。

Online editor: Paul

网络编辑：保罗