Properly Handle the Relationship between Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand to Smooth the Flow of the National Economy

The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2024 further deepened the understanding of the regular patterns governing economic work and summarized the "Five Musts," among which an important one is "must properly handle the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand to smooth the flow of the national economy." This not only enhances the scientific understanding of the objective laws of macroeconomic regulation in theory but also reflects the epochal inevitability of the historical evolution of China's macroeconomic governance in practice.

2024年12月召开的中央经济工作会议进一步深化对做好经济工作的规律性认识，概括出“五个必须”，其中重要的一条便是“必须统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，畅通国民经济循环”。这不仅在理论上增强了对宏观经济调控客观规律认识的科学性，而且在实践上体现了我国宏观经济治理历史演变的时代必然性。

I. Properly Handling the Relationship between Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand Is a Fundamental Issue in Macroeconomic Theory and Practice

一、统筹好总供给和总需求的关系是宏观经济理论和实践的基本问题

The reason why properly handling the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand is said to be an inherent requirement of economic development, possessing objective regularity, lies first and foremost in the fact that the supply-demand relationship is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. From a macroeconomic perspective, the core of the national economic aggregate and the aggregate analysis in economics is national income and the corresponding analysis of national income. National income can be examined from two aspects, or it can manifest in economic practice as two fundamental dimensions: on the one hand, the supply side, i.e., the total sum of products and services produced by an economy within one year that can be used for final consumption and investment (aggregate supply); on the other hand, the demand side, i.e., the total sum of purchasing expenditures on products and services formed by an economy within one year (aggregate demand). The equilibrium state of the national economy (equilibrium national income) refers to the national income realized under the condition where aggregate supply equals aggregate demand. Macroeconomic imbalance in the national aggregate (macroeconomic imbalance) refers to the disequilibrium and lack of coordination between aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the operation of the national economy or the process of national income formation, thereby causing difficulties and losses to the operation of the national economy. In a real market economy, aggregate supply and aggregate demand cannot be perfectly balanced, nor can macroeconomic regulation make them fully consistent; it is sufficient to control the degree of imbalance within a range tolerable for the operation of the national economy. Imbalance is the norm, while equilibrium is merely a theoretical assumption. This requires, institutionally, both an effective market with as much full competition as possible and an indispensable enabling government. A fully competitive market can achieve equilibrium in resource allocation; this is only a theoretical assumption, and the sufficient conditions to satisfy this assumption do not exist in reality. Macroeconomic regulation aims to formulate and implement macroeconomic policies of corresponding directions and intensities based on the different types and intensities of aggregate imbalances, in order to compensate for market failures and mitigate the volatility of economic cycles and growth.

之所以说统筹好总供给和总需求的关系是经济发展的内在要求，具有客观规律性，首先就在于供求关系是宏观经济的基本问题。从宏观上讲，国民经济总量及经济学上总量分析的核心是国民收入及相应的国民收入分析。国民收入可以从两方面考察，或者说可以在经济实践中体现为两个基本方面：一方面，供给端，即在一年内一国经济生产出来，可用于最终消费和投资的产品及服务的总和（总供给）；另一方面，需求端，即在一年内一国经济形成的对产品和服务的购买支出总和（总需求）。国民经济平衡状态（均衡国民收入）是指总供给等于总需求条件下实现国民收入。国民经济总量失衡（宏观失衡），是指国民经济运行或国民收入形成过程中总供给与总需求之间的不均衡、不协调，从而给国民经济运行造成困难和损失。在现实的市场经济中，总供给与总需求不可能完全均衡，宏观调控也不可能使二者充分一致，只要能够将失衡的程度控制在国民经济运行可以承受的范围之内即可。失衡是常态，均衡只是理论假设。这就要求在体制上既需要尽可能充分竞争的有效市场，又需要不可或缺的有为政府。充分竞争的市场能够实现资源配置的均衡，这只是理论上的假设，现实中不存在满足这种假设的充分条件。宏观调控就是要根据总量失衡的不同类型及强度，制定实施相应不同方向和力度的宏观经济政策，以弥补市场失灵，减弱经济周期和增长的波动性。

In terms of the mode of macroeconomic regulation, intervention can be carried out from the aggregate demand side, i.e., demand management, or from the aggregate supply side, i.e., supply management, or through simultaneous intervention in both directions, i.e., simultaneously hedging against supply and demand imbalances. In terms of the orientation of macroeconomic policy, it can be contractionary policy, expansionary policy, or a policy mix of tightening and loosening. As for macroeconomic policy tools, they are primarily aggregate policies, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, etc. In China, the structural policies of the national economy and reform measures in the process of economic structural transformation and institutional reform also have a significant effect on the macroeconomy. In terms of the intensity of macroeconomic policy, it is mainly determined based on the degree of economic imbalance and the requirements for achieving the main macroeconomic objectives. At the same time, the intensity of short-term macroeconomic policies and the achievement of their goals are constrained by long-term objectives and the costs of macroeconomic governance, or in other words, short-term macroeconomic regulation cannot come at the cost of severely increasing the costs and losses of future economic development.

从宏观调控方式上来说，可以从总需求端入手，即需求管理，也可以从总供给端入手，即供给管理，还可以是双向同时实施干预，即同时对冲需求和供给失衡。从宏观政策倾向上来说，可以是紧缩性的政策，也可以是扩张性的政策，还可以是松紧搭配的政策组合。就宏观政策工具而言，主要是总量政策，包括货币政策、财政政策等。在我国，作为经济结构转变和体制改革进程中的国民经济结构政策和改革举措，对宏观经济也具有明显作用。就宏观政策力度而言，主要是根据经济失衡的程度和达成宏观经济主要目标的要求来确定。同时，短期宏观政策的强度及目标的达成受到长期目标和宏观治理成本的约束，或者说短期宏观调控不能以严重加剧未来经济发展成本和损失为代价。

In economic history and the history of economic thought, the systematic formulation of macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy gradually took shape alongside the clarification of the categories of aggregate demand and aggregate supply and the deepening of the understanding of the relationship between them. Classical economics was, on the whole, supply-side analysis, with the demand side usually treated as a basic premise. This was linked to the economic and social development background of its era, namely the capitalist socio-economic development during the Industrial Revolution and the period of free competition. From the perspective of economic development history, just as the doctrines and policies of physiocracy and mercantilism were formed respectively to discuss the importance of agriculture and commerce, the epochal demands of the Industrial Revolution required a systematic theoretical exposition of the productivity and importance of manufacturing. Consequently, supply-side issues such as what constitutes productive labor and what constitutes productive industries inevitably became the focus of discussion. From the perspective of the characteristics of economic growth, insufficient supply was the principal contradiction during the Industrial Revolution era; supply could automatically create demand, and the expansion of aggregate supply and the optimization of its structure could naturally lead demand. Supply and demand could be self-consistent, requiring no additional forces external to the market. In practice, no more government intervention was needed, and theoretically, demand analysis was naturally neglected. From the perspective of the evolution of the capitalist mode of production, capitalism in the era of free competition required its economic theory to promote the fairness and necessity of free competition. Economic liberalism naturally became its economic philosophical foundation, emphasizing the spontaneity of market entity competition and inevitably neglecting state-wide intervention. From the perspective of the development level of Britain, the birthplace of classical economics, as the cradle of the Industrial Revolution, it possessed leading competitiveness, especially advanced enterprises and industries. Therefore, it needed to emphasize free competition, particularly opposing state protection in international competition. Consequently, theories and policies concerning aggregate demand and the corresponding category of aggregate supply, the national economy and the corresponding category of macroeconomy, the relationship between government and market, and the associated macroeconomic regulation of the national economy could not be systematically proposed. After the mid-19th century, although the German Historical School proposed the category of the national economy and emphasized the necessity of intervening in the economy from the overall perspective of the national economy, thereby questioning the effectiveness and orderliness of decentralized and spontaneous market competition, this was mainly a reflection of the development demands of German industrial capital at the time. Overall, the German economy and its enterprises in the mid-19th century had no advantage in international competition and were thus at a disadvantage in free competition, requiring state organization and support in policy. At the end of the 19th century, American institutional economics also put forward ideas calling for state intervention in the economy, again because the competitiveness of the American economy at that time had not yet reached the level of Britain and the major continental European powers. Therefore, it was difficult for these schools to become the mainstream of economics in that era.

在经济史和经济思想史上，宏观经济学及宏观经济政策的系统提出，是伴随着对于总需求和总供给范畴的明确及二者之间相互关系认识的深化而逐渐形成的。古典经济学总体上是供给分析，需求端通常是作为基本前提，这是与其所处时代的经济社会发展背景，即工业革命及自由竞争时期的资本主义社会经济发展相联系的。从经济发展史来说，正如论述农业和商业的重要性所分别形成的重农主义和重商主义的学说及政策一样，工业革命的时代要求需要在理论上系统阐释制造业的生产性和重要性，因而什么是生产劳动、什么是生产性产业等供给方面的问题必然成为讨论的重点。从经济增长特征来说，工业革命时代供给不足是主要矛盾，供给可以自动创造需求，供给的总量扩张和结构优化自然能够引领需求，供给与需求之间可以自洽，不需要更多的外在于市场的力量。在实践上，不需要更多的政府干预，理论上自然忽视需求分析。从资本主义生产方式演进来说，自由竞争时代的资本主义，要求其经济理论弘扬自由竞争的公正和必要，经济自由主义自然成为其经济哲学基础，强调市场主体竞争的自发性、忽视国家总体干预成为必然。从古典经济学的产生地英国当时的发展水平来说，作为工业革命的策源地，具有领先的竞争力，特别是拥有先进的企业和产业，因而需要强调自由竞争，尤其是在国际竞争中反对国家保护。因此，总需求及与之相对应的总供给范畴，国民经济及与之相对应的宏观经济范畴，政府与市场关系以及与之相联系的国民经济的宏观调控等理论和政策，不可能被系统地提出。19世纪中叶之后，尽管德国历史学派提出了国民经济范畴，也强调从国民经济总体上干预经济的必要，从而对分散自发的市场竞争的有效有序性提出了质疑，但主要是出于反映当时德国工业资本的发展要求。总体上，19世纪中叶的德国经济和企业在国际竞争中并无优势，因而在自由竞争中处于不利地位，需要国家在政策上予以组织和支持。19世纪末，美国的制度经济学也提出了要求国家干预经济的思想，同样是由于当时美国经济的竞争力还未达到英国及欧洲大陆强国的水平。因此，都难以成为那一时代经济学的主流。

In the history of Western economic thought, Keynes emphasized aggregate demand analysis, and the subsequent proposal of macroeconomics is considered a product of the "Keynesian Revolution." The Great Depression of 1929–1933 demonstrated that capitalist economic crises, characterized by insufficient effective demand and relative overproduction, were no longer accidental occurrences but were cyclical and possessed profound internal causes. Not only classical economics but also later neoclassical economics found it difficult to explain why the policy of laissez-faire and non-intervention in the economy had failed, and why the market, as an "invisible hand," had malfunctioned. Therefore, economics needed to conduct demand analysis, especially macroeconomic discussions from an aggregate perspective. It needed to systematically explain the causes of insufficient aggregate demand, discuss whether the market itself could effectively overcome aggregate imbalances, thereby demonstrating the necessity of government intervention, and study the economic philosophy and theoretical basis for state intervention, subsequently proposing corresponding macroeconomic policies, etc., to push the national economic aggregate towards equilibrium. This led to the formation of macroeconomics. Thereafter, although different schools of thought diverged in their views and policy proposals, as well as in their economic philosophical stances and theoretical systems, emphasizing the equilibrium of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and expounding their basic views and policies from the requirements of this equilibrium, became a consensus in mainstream economics.

在西方经济思想史上，凯恩斯强调总需求分析，进而提出宏观经济学是“凯恩斯革命”的产物。1929—1933年的大危机表明，以有效需求不足、生产相对过剩为特征的资本主义经济危机已不再是偶然发生的，而是周期性的，并且具有深刻的内在动因。不仅古典经济学，而且后来的新古典经济学均难以解释为何自由放任、不干预经济的政策会失效，为何市场作为“看不见的手”会失灵。因此，经济学需要进行需求分析，特别是从总量上进行经济学讨论，需要系统阐释总需求不足的原因，需要讨论市场本身能否有效克服总量失衡，进而论证政府干预的必要，需要研究国家干预的经济哲学和经济理论依据，进而提出相应的宏观经济政策，等等，从而推动国民经济总量趋近于均衡，由此形成宏观经济学。此后，虽然不同流派在观点和政策主张上，在经济哲学立场和理论体系上，均存在分歧，但强调总需求和总供给的均衡，并从二者的均衡要求出发阐释其基本观点和政策，成为主流经济学的共识。

Unlike classical economics and neoclassical economics, classical Keynesianism theoretically introduces, on the one hand, the psychological preference analysis of the Austrian School and the Historical School, and on the other hand, combines aggregate analysis with comparative static analysis, focusing on the determination of national income and employment, and explores how to achieve full employment from the perspective of aggregate demand management. In terms of policy, Keynesianism advocates adopting expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, expanding exports and foreign investment, and stimulating aggregate demand, in order to achieve balanced growth of national income and corresponding full employment as far as possible. Keynesianism was widely accepted in theory and widely adopted in policy, occupying the mainstream position in Western economics for more than twenty years after World War II. Later developments, such as the "Neoclassical Synthesis" or "Post-Keynesianism," although further extending Keynes's analytical framework, still hold the basic views of classical Keynesianism, differing only in placing greater emphasis on the role of fiscal policy in the application of policy tools. However, like Keynesian economics, they found it difficult to explain and address new problems such as the "stagflation" of capitalist economies that emerged after the 1970s. In response to new problems like "stagflation," "New Keynesianism" theoretically proposed sticky price theory, labor market theory, and so on. The new hypotheses argue that markets are non-clearing, and that wages and prices are difficult to adjust to a market-clearing state, thus advocating deep government intervention. In terms of policy, unlike the Neoclassical Synthesis which prominently emphasizes the role of fiscal policy, New Keynesianism advocates a combination of fiscal and monetary policies with discretionary choices, but it still cannot effectively explain "stagflation." Overall, the common feature of classical Keynesianism and its later developments lies in emphasizing demand management, starting from the basic fact of insufficient effective demand, taking demand determining supply as the starting point, taking the market as the prerequisite for efficient resource allocation, acknowledging the necessity and effectiveness of introducing government macro-intervention, and believing that fiscal and monetary policies should be used as the main tools. However, these theories all have their own limitations, especially in explaining "stagflation." Therefore, the supply-side school began to rise. The supply-side school takes supply creating demand as its starting point, emphasizes the role of supply management, focuses on achieving economic equilibrium in the long run through the economy's inherent stabilizing mechanisms, and believes that the deep-seated cause of "stagflation" lies on the supply side, not the demand side. Therefore, the government's macroeconomic objectives and policies should start from alleviating contradictions on the supply side. Targeting the contradictions on the supply side, various policies should directly influence producers (rather than directly influencing consumers), especially fiscal revenue policies that lower marginal tax rates, to increase corporate and individual profits, thereby promoting savings and investment, driving enterprise innovation and structural upgrading, and providing new, higher-level supply. Subsequently, by changing the supply curve, equilibrium between supply and demand at a new output level is achieved, thereby, on the one hand, lowering costs, improving supply efficiency, and alleviating cost-push inflationary pressures; on the other hand, raising the aggregate supply level, using supply to create demand, and expanding the equilibrium output of national income. The supply-side school can be further divided into radical and moderate types: the radical supply-side school emphasizes adopting tax-cut policies to quickly stimulate supply, while the moderate supply-side school emphasizes achieving diversified goals through a combination of various policies. The propositions of the supply-side school were once adopted during the governments of Ronald Reagan in the United States and Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom in the 1980s, known as the so-called "supply-side revolution." Although some results were achieved, they were not sustained and did not reach the expected outcomes. The fundamental reason is that, theoretically, the policies of the supply-side school directly influence market entities (producers), conflicting with the tradition of free-competition capitalism; in practice, the implementation of supply-side school policies lacks an institutional and systemic foundation.

不同于古典经济学和新古典经济学，经典的凯恩斯主义在理论上一方面引入奥地利学派和历史学派的心理偏好分析，另一方面将总量分析和比较静态分析相结合，重点考察国民收入和就业决定问题，并从宏观需求管理的角度来探讨如何实现充分就业。在政策上，凯恩斯主义主张采取扩张性财政政策和货币政策，扩大出口和对外投资，刺激总需求，以尽可能实现国民收入均衡增长及相应的充分就业目标。凯恩斯主义在理论上被普遍接受，在政策上被广泛采用，在“二战”后20多年的时间里占据西方经济学的主流地位。后来的“新古典综合经济学”，或“后凯恩斯主义”等，虽然对凯恩斯的分析框架进一步进行扩展，但基本观点仍是经典凯恩斯主义的，不同的是在政策工具运用上更强调财政政策的作用。但同凯恩斯经济学一样，难以解释和处理20世纪70年代之后出现的资本主义经济“滞胀”等新问题。针对“滞胀”等新问题，“新凯恩斯主义”在理论上提出黏性价格理论、劳动市场理论等。新假说认为市场是非出清的，而工资和价格难以调整至市场出清状态，进而主张政府深度干预。在政策上，不同于新古典综合派突出强调财政政策作用，新凯恩斯主义主张财政政策与货币政策进行组合并相机抉择，但仍不能有效解释“滞胀”。总的来说，经典凯恩斯主义及其后来的发展，其共同的特征在于强调需求管理，从有效需求不足的基本事实出发，以需求决定供给为起点，以市场作为有效配置资源的前提，承认引入政府宏观干预的必要性和有效性，并认为需要采用财政政策和货币政策作为主要工具。但这些理论又都有自身的局限，尤其是难以解释“滞胀”。因此，供给学派开始兴起。供给学派以供给创造需求为起点，强调供给管理的作用，注重长期内通过经济内在稳定机制实现经济均衡，认为“滞胀”的深层次原因在于供给端，而并非需求端。因此，政府的宏观经济目标和政策应当从缓解供给端矛盾出发，针对供给端的矛盾，以各种政策直接影响生产者（而不是直接影响消费者），特别是以降低边际税率的财政收入政策，增加企业和个人利润，以推动储蓄和投资，拉动企业创新和结构升级，提供新的高水平供给。进而，通过改变供给曲线，达到供给与需求在新的产出水平上的均衡，从而一方面降低成本，提高供给效率，缓解成本引致的通货膨胀压力；另一方面，提高总供给水平，并以供给创造需求，扩大国民收入均衡产出。供给学派又可分为激进和温和两类：激进供给学派强调采取减税政策快速刺激供给，温和供给学派强调通过各类政策的组合实现多元化目标。供给学派的主张，在20世纪80年代美国里根政府和英国撒切尔夫人政府期间曾被采用过，即所谓“供给革命”。虽然取得一定的成效，但并未能持续，也未能达到预期成效。根本原因在于，在理论上，供给学派的政策直接影响市场主体（生产者），与自由竞争的资本主义传统相冲突；在实践上，供给学派的政策实施缺乏制度和体制基础。

Analyzing macroeconomic variables such as aggregate supply and aggregate demand requires, in addition to discussing their relationship and the conditions for achieving equilibrium in theory and models, the statistical measurement and accounting of the national economic aggregate (national income), i.e., the construction of a national economic accounting system. In the history of Western economic thought, scholars like Simon Kuznets conducted statistical and measurement research on national income (aggregate demand, aggregate supply) in the 1920s, and based on this, conducted comparative studies of economic growth across countries, for which Kuznets won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1971. In the 1940s, under the direction of Richard Stone, the System of National Accounts was systematically developed, for which Stone won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1984. Traditional national income statistics evolved into a System of National Accounts that comprehensively measures the value flows and stocks of the national economy. Gross Domestic Product, or national income (aggregate demand, aggregate supply), is the core indicator of this accounting system. Within this system, centered on the core indicator of national income, national income accounting is integrated with input-output, flow of funds, balance sheets, and balance of payments analysis to form a complete system of accounts. On this basis, the United Nations System of National Accounts standard was formed, becoming the internationally accepted standard for contemporary national economic statistics and measurement research. Macroeconomics and economic growth theory and methods have thus been further developed. The development of Keynesian macroeconomic theory, as well as later Western economic growth theory and macroeconomic analysis, is closely linked to the statistical measurement of national income and the construction of the national economic accounting system. Since 1987, China has also replaced its previous material product accounting system with this accounting system.

对总供给和总需求等宏观经济变量展开分析，除在理论上和模型上讨论二者关系和实现均衡的条件外，还需要对国民经济总量（国民收入）进行统计和计量，即需要构建国民经济核算体系。在西方经济思想史上，20世纪20年代库兹涅茨等学者对国民收入（总需求、总供给）进行统计和计量研究，并以此为基础对各国经济增长进行比较研究，库兹涅茨因此而获得1971年诺贝尔经济学奖。20世纪40年代，在理查德·斯通主持下，系统研发了国民经济账户体系，斯通因此而获得1984年诺贝尔经济学奖。传统的国民收入统计发展成为对国民经济价值流量和存量进行全面计量的国民经济核算体系。国内生产总值或称国民收入（总需求、总供给）是这一核算体系的核心指标。在这一体系中，围绕国民收入这一核心指标，国民收入核算和投入产出、资金流量、资产负债、国际收支分析等相互结合，形成完整的账户体系。在此基础上，形成联合国国民经济核算标准体系，成为当代进行国民经济统计和计量研究的国际通行标准。宏观经济学和经济增长理论及方法也因此得到了进一步的发展。凯恩斯主义宏观经济理论以及后来的西方经济增长理论和宏观经济分析的发展都与国民收入的统计计量及国民经济核算体系的构建有密切的联系。我国自1987年后也以这种核算体系取代了以往的物质资料生产核算体系。

The issue of aggregate demand and aggregate supply and their interrelationship is also an important subject of study in Marxist political economy. Marx took the movement of total social capital in capitalist society as his object of investigation, particularly Marx's theory of social reproduction, which took capitalist reproduction and proportional relations as its content of investigation, revealing the institutional roots of capitalist economic crises characterized by relative overproduction, and analyzing the fundamental causes of aggregate and structural imbalances between aggregate demand and aggregate supply in the process of capitalist reproduction. Furthermore, by grounding the explanation of the movement of the contradiction between supply and demand in the process of capitalist production and reproduction firmly on the basis of historical materialism and the theory of surplus value, it not only incorporated the analysis of capitalist economic aggregates into the system of political economy but also provided theoretical and methodological guidance for analyzing the movement of the contradiction between aggregate demand and aggregate supply in the process of socialist reproduction.

总需求与总供给及相互关系问题，同样是马克思主义政治经济学研究的重要问题。马克思以资本主义社会总资本运动为考察对象，特别是马克思关于社会资本再生产的理论，以资本主义再生产及比例关系为考察内容，揭示了资本主义以生产相对过剩为特点的经济危机产生的制度根源，分析了资本主义再生产过程中总需求与总供给间的总量和结构失衡的根本原因。进而，将资本主义生产和再生产过程中的供求矛盾运动的阐释，真正建立在唯物史观和剩余价值理论基础之上，不仅将资本主义经济总量分析纳入政治经济学体系，而且为展开社会主义再生产过程中的总需求与总供给矛盾运动分析提供了理论和方法指引。

On the basis of criticizing the "Smithian dogma" and absorbing the essence of Quesnay's *Tableau Économique*, Marx creatively proposed a scientific theory of social reproduction. Starting from the labor theory of value, by analyzing the interrelationships among the various links and aspects of production, distribution, exchange, and consumption, Marx revealed the mechanism, essence, and laws of motion of capitalist social reproduction. He pointed out that total social capital, existing simultaneously in time and succeeding in space, is a cyclical process of the four links of production, distribution, exchange, and consumption, and is a movement unifying the reproduction of material goods, labor power, and relations of production. The smooth circulation of total social capital requires a series of conditions, which the capitalist mode of production is unable to satisfy, thereby leading to profound, periodic economic crises, the root of which lies in the capitalist system itself.

马克思在批判“斯密教条”、吸收魁奈《经济表》思想精华的基础上，创造性地提出了科学的社会资本再生产理论。马克思从劳动价值论出发，通过分析生产、分配、交换、消费各环节和各方面相互关系，揭示了资本主义社会资本再生产的机制、本质及运动规律。他指出，社会总资本在时间上并存、空间上继起，是生产、分配、交换、消费四个环节循环往复的过程，是物质资料、劳动力和生产关系再生产相互统一的运动。社会总资本的循环畅通需要一系列条件，而资本主义生产方式难以满足所需要的条件，由此便会导致深刻的、周期性的经济危机，而危机的根源在于资本主义制度本身。

The process of the circulation of total social capital and its continuous expanded reproduction is in fact the process of economic growth. In Marx’s theory of social reproduction, a two-department economic growth model is constructed, the basic conditions for the realization of social reproduction are given, and the interrelationship between the two departments is explained. This model takes into account issues of aggregate and structure, short-term and long-term, static and dynamic, simple reproduction and expanded reproduction, and other aspects. It dynamizes the static analysis and extends the short-term analysis of the movement of total social capital, embodying the organic unity of aggregate analysis and structural analysis, and the organic unity of quantitative growth and qualitative evolution. It reveals why the basic conditions for the realization of the circulation and reproduction of social capital in the process of capitalist market competition are difficult to satisfy, thereby leading to economic fluctuations and periodic crises, and points out the direction of institutional change for fundamentally overcoming periodic economic crises. While analyzing the movement of total social capital and the realization of reproduction under capitalism, it reveals the general laws of social reproduction under the market economy mechanism.

社会总资本循环及连续扩大再生产的过程，实际上是经济增长过程，在马克思社会资本再生产理论中构建了一个两部类经济增长模型，给出了社会资本再生产的基本实现条件，阐释了两大部类间的联动关系。这一模型兼顾了总量和结构、短期和长期、静态与动态、简单再生产与扩大再生产等各方面的问题，实现了关于社会总资本运动的静态分析动态化、短期分析长期化，体现了总量分析和结构分析的有机统一、量的增长和质的演进的有机统一，揭示了在资本主义市场竞争过程中社会资本循环和再生产实现的基本条件之所以难以满足，进而导致经济波动和周期性危机的制度根源，为从根本上克服经济周期性危机指明了制度变革的方向。在分析资本主义社会总资本运动和实现再生产的同时，揭示了市场经济机制下社会再生产的一般规律。

II. Properly Balancing Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand Is the Basic Logic of China’s Macroeconomic Regulation

二、统筹好总供给和总需求的关系是我国宏观经济调控的基本逻辑

Macroeconomic regulation under the conditions of the socialist market economy must, on the one hand, be guided theoretically by Marxism, especially Marx’s theory of social reproduction as its foundation, while drawing on beneficial elements from Western economics, particularly the relevant macroeconomic policy measures for dealing with market failures in the process of market competition, as well as the theoretical and practical experience and lessons of national income statistical measurement and accounting systems. On the other hand, in practice, it must be based on China’s national conditions, especially the concrete realities of being a developing country, focus on fully leveraging the institutional advantages of the socialist market economy, continuously deepen the understanding of the laws governing the balancing of supply and demand through theoretical and practical exploration, constantly innovate and improve the macroeconomic governance mechanism, and continuously optimize and enhance its effectiveness.

社会主义市场经济条件下的宏观调控，一方面，在理论上，必须以马克思主义为指导，尤其是马克思主义社会再生产理论作为基础，同时借鉴西方经济学中的有益成分，特别是市场竞争运行过程中应对市场失灵的有关宏观经济政策举措，以及国民收入统计计量及核算体系的理论和实践等方面的经验教训。另一方面，在实践上，必须立足中国国情，尤其是作为发展中国家的具体实际，注重充分发挥社会主义市场经济的制度优势，在理论和实践的探索中不断深化对统筹供给和需求的规律性认识，不断创新和完善宏观经济治理机制，并不断优化和提升其效能。

During the era of the planned economy, although China’s national economic management system and policy mechanisms were influenced by the Soviet Union, there were also independent explorations based on its own national conditions. In particular, in the overall coordination and management of the national economy, it creatively proposed the comprehensive balance of the national economy based on the relationship between aggregate supply and demand. In fact, neither Western economics nor Soviet socialist political economy had proposed the category and thought of comprehensive balance of the national economy, let alone the practice of comprehensive balance. “Comprehensive balance” is an economic thought creatively proposed based on China’s economic practice, guided by Marx’s theory of social reproduction, and drawing on the experience and theory of Soviet socialist economic development. Its core is planned and proportional development, its key is the balance of fiscal revenue and expenditure, and its foundation is the four major balances of materials, finance, currency, and foreign exchange. The creativity of this thought is mainly reflected in: First, it focuses on the balanced relationships among various sectors, links, and aspects of the social economy as the foundation, with the balance of aggregate supply and demand as the key point, emphasizing the interaction between structural and aggregate balance, embodying the exploration of applying Marx’s theory of social reproduction to China’s social economy, and reducing the structural rigidity under the Soviet planned economy. Second, it focuses on the organic unity from structure to the whole, treating the comprehensive coordination of various elements and overall balance as a unified whole, unifying the movement of total social output value with the structural changes of various links and sectors in the social reproduction process, thereby reducing the aggregate constraint rigidity under the Soviet planned economy. Third, it focuses on short-term dynamics while taking into account long-term dynamic equilibrium, dynamically adjusting the path of economic development, and to a certain extent alleviating the rigidity of the Soviet planned economy. Fourth, it focuses on “combining vertical and horizontal lines” [2]2 “Combining vertical and horizontal lines” (条块结合) refers to coordinating the vertical administrative lines (central ministries and their local branches) with the horizontal territorial lines (local governments at various levels)., coordinating the top-down economic plans of the central government with the bottom-up development demands of local governments, taking into account the initiative of both the central and local levels.

在计划经济时代，我国虽然在国民经济管理体制和政策机制等方面受苏联影响，但也有基于自身国情独立的探索，特别是在国民经济总体协调和管理上，创造性地提出以总供需关系为基点的国民经济综合平衡。事实上，无论是西方经济学还是苏联社会主义政治经济学都没有提出过国民经济综合平衡的范畴和思想，更缺乏综合平衡的实践。“综合平衡”是立足中国经济实践，以马克思社会资本再生产理论为指导，在借鉴苏联社会主义经济发展经验和理论的基础上，创造性地提出来的经济思想。其核心是有计划、按比例发展，关键是财政收支平衡，基础是物资、财政、货币和外汇四大平衡。这一思想的创造性主要体现在：一是注重以社会经济各部门、各环节、各方面的平衡关系为基础，以总量上的供求平衡为重点，强调结构和总量平衡间的互动，体现了将马克思社会资本再生产理论应用于中国社会经济的探索，减弱了苏联计划经济下的结构刚性。二是注重从结构到总体的有机统一，把各方面要素的综合协调和总体上的平衡作为统一整体，将社会总产值的运动和社会再生产过程的各环节和各部门结构变化统一起来，减轻了苏联计划经济下的总量约束刚性。三是注重短期、兼顾长期的动态均衡，动态调整经济发展路径，在一定程度上减轻了苏联计划经济的僵化性。四是注重“条块结合”，将中央自上而下的经济计划与地方自下而上的发展要求协调起来，兼顾了中央和地方两方面的积极性。

Strictly speaking, the “theory of comprehensive balance of the national economy” was a thought and policy for overall national economic management formed under the traditional planned economy system. Although it played an important role in practice in promoting China’s industrialization and implementing the “Five-Year Plans,” it was not effectively implemented due to impacts from various sides and cannot yet be regarded as macroeconomic thought and policy. This is because, under the traditional planned economy system, there was no strict distinction between macro and micro; the division between macro and micro is a phenomenon that only exists under market economy conditions. Macroeconomic regulation centered on coordinating the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand is something that emerged after entering the period of reform and opening up. Since reform and opening up, the coordination of China’s demand and supply relations, and the macroeconomic regulation based on this, has generally gone through three stages. In different stages, targeting the different characteristics of macroeconomic imbalances, the changes in the contradiction between supply and demand and the shift in the principal aspect of the contradiction, and based on the characteristics of the system and institutional evolution formed during the process of reform and opening up, the methods and policy orientations of macroeconomic regulation have been continuously adjusted.

严格来说，“国民经济综合平衡论”是在传统计划经济体制下形成的国民经济总体管理的思想和政策，在实践上虽然对推动我国工业化和实施“五年计划”发挥了重要作用，但由于受到多方面的冲击，并未能有效贯彻，还不能视为宏观经济思想和政策。因为，在传统计划经济体制下并不存在严格的宏观与微观区分，宏微观的划分是在市场经济条件下才存在的现象。以协调总供给和总需求的关系为核心的宏观调控，是进入改革开放时期之后的事情。改革开放以来，我国需求和供给关系的协调，以及在此基础上的宏观调控，总体上经历了三个阶段，不同阶段针对宏观经济失衡的不同特点，针对供求矛盾变化及矛盾主要方面的转变，根据改革开放进程中形成的制度和体制演进特点，不断调整宏观调控方式和政策导向。

The first stage focused on aggregate demand management to coordinate the contradiction between supply and demand (1978–2012). This stage is further divided into two different periods. The first period was 1978–1998 (from reform and opening up to the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis). During this period, due to historical and practical reasons, progress in the level of development and system reform, and changes in the domestic economy and international market, both investment and consumer demand were overheated. The imbalance formed on the basis of the previous economic shortage was mainly driven by the demand side. Inflation transformed from a latent state under the planned economy system into explicit price increases, and the main manifestation of the imbalance was demand-pull inflation. Correspondingly, it was required to focus on strengthening demand management in macroeconomic regulation, and the macro policy direction was comprehensive tightening, until the 15th National Congress of the CPC [3]3 The 15th National Congress of the CPC was held in September 1997. held in 1997, which still required moderately tight macro policies throughout the entire “Ninth Five-Year Plan” period [4]4 The “Ninth Five-Year Plan” covered the period 1996–2000.. The latter period was from the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1998 to the convening of the 18th National Congress of the CPC [5]5 The 18th National Congress of the CPC was held in November 2012. in 2012. During this period, China’s economy successively experienced the impact of the Asian financial crisis and the 2008 world financial crisis. Coupled with the improvement of the domestic economic development level and the deepening of system reform, the role and binding force of the market mechanism gradually increased. Overcapacity and weak demand became prominent macroeconomic imbalances. Correspondingly, starting from the second half of 1998, China’s macro policy direction changed. It no longer adhered to the orientation of tightening demand but, in response to the new problem of weak demand, proposed for the first time a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The 2008 world financial crisis further intensified the impact on China’s economy, making the contradiction of weak demand even more prominent. Overcapacity expanded from fields such as durable consumer goods to important investment goods. The corresponding macroeconomic policies were further clarified as “a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy.” It was not until the end of 2010 that the policy of comprehensive expansion in response to the crisis was withdrawn, returning to the original policy track. It can be said that during this period, the principal contradiction of aggregate imbalance was always concentrated on the demand side. The difference was that first there was demand expansion, then weak demand. The macro policy direction shifted from tightening to expansion, and the macro goal shifted from controlling inflation to ensuring economic growth, but both were based on aggregate demand management, starting from the demand side to coordinate the contradiction between supply and demand.

一是以总需求管理为重点，协调供求矛盾（1978—2012年）。这一阶段又分为两个不同时期，前一时期是1978—1998年（改革开放至亚洲金融危机爆发）。在这一时期，由于历史的和现实的原因，由于发展水平和体制改革方面的进展，由于国内经济和国际市场的变化等，投资和消费需求双过热，在以往经济短缺基础上形成的失衡主要动因在于需求侧，通货膨胀从计划经济体制下的隐性状态转化为显性物价上涨，失衡的主要体现是需求拉动的通货膨胀。相应地，要求在宏观调控上重点强化需求管理，宏观政策方向是全面紧缩，直到1997年召开的党的十五大，仍然要求在整个“九五”期间宏观政策适度紧缩。后一时期，是自1998年亚洲金融危机爆发至2012年党的十八大召开。这一时期我国经济先后经历了亚洲金融危机和2008年世界金融危机的冲击，加之国内经济发展水平的提升和体制改革的深入，市场机制的作用程度和约束力度逐渐加大，产能过剩、需求疲软成为突出的宏观经济失衡现象。相应地，自1998年下半年开始，我国宏观政策方向发生转变，不再坚持紧缩需求的导向，而是针对需求疲软的新问题，首次提出积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。2008年世界金融危机进一步加剧了对我国经济的冲击，需求疲软矛盾更为突出，产能过剩从耐用消费品等领域扩展至重要的投资品领域，相应的宏观经济政策进一步明确为“更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策”。直至2010年底，从应对危机全面扩张的政策退出，重新回到原来的政策轨道。可以说，这一时期总量失衡的主要矛盾，始终集中在需求端。不同的是，先是需求膨胀，后是需求疲软。宏观政策方向从紧缩转变为扩张，宏观目标从治理通货膨胀转向保证经济增长，但都是立足总需求管理，从需求端入手，协调供求矛盾。

Second, taking supply-side structural reform as the main line to coordinate the contradiction between supply and demand (2012–2021). After the 18th National Congress of the CPC, socialism with Chinese characteristics entered a New Era, and economic development assumed a new normal. Profound changes occurred on both the supply side and the demand side, and the objective function and constraint function of economic development underwent historic transformations correspondingly. General Secretary Xi Jinping conducted an in-depth analysis of the characteristics of the economic new normal and scientifically elucidated the new changes in the supply-demand relationship. He pointed out, “At present, there are cyclical and aggregate problems in China’s economic development, but structural problems are the most prominent, and the principal aspect of the contradiction lies on the supply side.” [6]6 The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) is China's national economic and social development plan, setting targets for growth, innovation, and social welfare. In particular, “from the demand side, the marginal effect of comprehensive stimulus policies is clearly diminishing; from the supply side, we must not only comprehensively resolve overcapacity but also explore future directions for industrial development by leveraging the market mechanism. We must fully grasp the new changes in aggregate supply and demand, conduct scientific macroeconomic regulation, intervene moderately but not blindly, and when necessary, act resolutely while properly controlling the degree, balancing the relationship between enhancing vitality and creating an environment, so as to truly form a rational division of labor between the market and the government and promote a new model of development.” This requires that, in accordance with the development requirements of the New Era, the characteristics of demand and supply management, and the changes in the principal aspect of the supply-demand contradiction, the supply-demand relationship in the operation of the socialist market economy be coordinated. “Demand-side management focuses on solving aggregate problems and emphasizes short-term regulation, mainly by adjusting taxes, fiscal expenditure, and monetary credit to stimulate or suppress demand, thereby driving economic growth. Supply-side management focuses on solving structural problems and emphasizes stimulating the driving forces of economic growth, mainly by optimizing the allocation of factors and adjusting the production structure to improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system, thereby driving economic growth.” [7]7 The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is the upcoming national development plan, currently in the preparatory stage. Judging from the new imbalances that emerged after China’s economy entered the new normal, the principal aspect of the supply-demand contradiction lies on the supply side; therefore, supply-side structural reform must be highlighted and taken as the main line. Corresponding to this shift in the mode of macroeconomic regulation, the focus of macroeconomic regulation shifted from the demand end to the supply end. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2015 emphasized that advancing supply-side structural reform is a major innovation to adapt to and lead the economic new normal, an active choice to adapt to the new situation of competition in comprehensive national power after the international financial crisis, and an inevitable requirement for adapting to the new normal of China’s economic development. The 2016 Central Economic Work Conference further explicitly required deepening supply-side structural reform and, taking this as the main line, moderately expanding aggregate demand. Up to the 2021 Central Economic Work Conference, the requirement to adhere to supply-side structural reform as the main line was consistently maintained. Correspondingly, in concrete work practice, to adapt to the requirements of supply-side structural reform, a series of policies and measures were proposed, such as “cutting overcapacity, reducing excess inventory, deleveraging, lowering costs, and strengthening areas of weakness” [8]8 The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC, held in July 2024, focused on further deepening reform comprehensively to advance Chinese modernization. and “consolidating, enhancing, upgrading, and smoothing.” [9]

二是以供给侧结构性改革为主线，协调供求矛盾（2012—2021年）。党的十八大之后，中国特色社会主义进入新时代，经济发展呈现新常态。无论是供给侧还是需求侧，都发生了深刻的变化，经济发展的目标函数和约束函数也都相应发生了历史性改变。习近平总书记深入分析了经济新常态的特征，科学阐释了供求关系发生的新变化。他指出，“当前我国经济发展中有周期性、总量性问题，但结构性问题最突出，矛盾的主要方面在供给侧”。特别是“从需求方面看，全面刺激政策的边际效果明显递减；从供给方面看，既要全面化解产能过剩，也要通过发挥市场机制作用探索未来产业发展方向。我们必须全面把握总供求关系新变化，科学进行宏观调控，适度干预但不盲目，必要时在把握好度的前提下坚定出手，平衡好增强活力和创造环境的关系，真正形成市场和政府合理分工、推动发展新模式”。这就需要根据新时代的发展要求，根据需求和供给管理的特点，适应供求关系矛盾主要方面的变化，协调社会主义市场经济运行中的供求关系。“需求侧管理，重在解决总量性问题，注重短期调控，主要是通过调节税收、财政支出、货币信贷等来刺激或抑制需求，进而推动经济增长。供给侧管理，重在解决结构性问题，注重激发经济增长动力，主要通过优化要素配置和调整生产结构来提高供给体系质量和效率，进而推动经济增长。”从我国经济进入新常态出现的新失衡来看，供求矛盾的主要方面在供给侧，因而必须突出供给侧结构性改革，把推进供给侧结构性改革作为主线。与这种宏观调控方式的转变相适应，宏观经济调控的重点由需求端向供给端转移。2015年12月召开的中央经济工作会议强调，推进供给侧结构性改革是适应和引领经济发展新常态的重大创新，是适应国际金融危机发生后综合国力竞争新形势的主动选择，是适应我国经济发展新常态的必然要求。2016年中央经济工作会议进一步明确要求，深化供给侧结构性改革，并以此为主线，适度扩大总需求。直到2021年中央经济工作会议，始终要求坚持以供给侧结构性改革为主线。相应地，在具体工作实践上，适应供给侧结构性改革的要求，提出“三去一降一补”和“巩固、增强、提升、畅通”等一系列方针政策。

Third, taking the positive two-way interaction between supply and demand as the foundation, emphasizing the coordination of both ends of supply and demand (from the convening of the 20th National Congress of the CPC in 2022 to the present). During this stage, the downward pressure on China’s economy further intensified. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and profound changes in the world geopolitical landscape, coupled with the increasing complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment, compounded by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, caused China’s economy to face the triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations, leading to a two-way contraction in both supply and demand. In response to these new changes, in the spring of 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed accelerating the establishment of a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other, requiring that while deepening supply-side structural reform as the main line, attention be paid to demand-side management, accelerating the cultivation of the domestic demand system, forming a higher-level dynamic balance where demand drives supply and supply creates demand, taking meeting domestic demand as the basic foothold, and organically combining the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform. In 2022, the report of the 20th National Congress of the CPC, when elaborating on the theme of high-quality development, particularly emphasized “organically combining the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform.” The 2022 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized focusing on expanding domestic demand, especially requiring that restoring and expanding consumption be given priority, so as to better coordinate supply-side structural reform and expanding domestic demand. The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference, when summarizing the regular understanding of doing a good job in economic work, particularly emphasized the necessity of persisting in deepening supply-side structural reform and focusing on expanding effective demand in a coordinated manner. The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference deepened the understanding of the regularities of doing a good job in economic work, and one important point was the necessity of properly handling the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand to smooth the national economic cycle. In China’s macroeconomic regulation theory and practice, there has been a gradual shift from taking deepening supply-side structural reform as the main line to placing greater emphasis on coordinating supply and demand, emphasizing coordinated efforts from both the supply and demand ends in macro policy, so as to effectively hedge against the two-way shocks to supply and demand, and in the short term, comprehensively expand demand.

三是以突出供给和需求双向良性互动为基础，强调统筹供求两端的协同（2022年党的二十大召开至今）。在这一阶段，我国经济下行压力进一步加大，俄乌冲突、世界地缘政治关系发生深刻变化，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性和不确定性持续上升，叠加新冠疫情冲击，我国经济面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力，出现供求双向萎缩。针对这些新变化，2020年春，习近平总书记提出加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，要求以深化供给侧结构性改革为主线的同时，注重需求侧管理，加快培育内需体系，形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡，以满足国内需求为基本立足点，把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来。2022年，党的二十大报告在阐释高质量发展主题时，特别强调“把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来”。2022年中央经济工作会议强调，着力扩大国内需求，尤其是要求把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置，以更好统筹供给侧结构性改革和扩大内需。2023年中央经济工作会议在总结做好经济工作的规律性认识时，特别强调必须坚持深化供给侧结构性改革和着力扩大有效需求协同发力。2024年中央经济工作会议深化了对做好经济工作规律性的认识，其中重要的一条便是，必须统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，畅通国民经济循环。我国在宏观调控的理论和实践上，从以深化供给侧结构性改革为主线，逐渐转变为更加强调统筹供给和需求、强调在宏观政策上从供求两端协同发力，以有效对冲供给和需求双向受到的冲击，并且在短期内全方位扩大需求。

III. Properly Handling the Relationship between Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand Is an Urgent Requirement for Offsetting the Current Two-Way Contraction of Supply and Demand in China

三、统筹好总供给和总需求的关系是对冲当前我国供求双紧缩的迫切要求

Continuously deepening the regular understanding of properly handling the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand is of extremely great significance for macroeconomic governance. On the one hand, coordination between aggregate supply and aggregate demand is the basic condition for the macro operation of the national economy to tend toward equilibrium; imbalance between aggregate supply and demand is the cumulative result of imbalances in all links and aspects of social reproduction. At the same time, aggregate imbalance will profoundly affect the smoothness of the national economic cycle; imbalance in the supply-demand relationship is a concentrated manifestation of market failure under market economy conditions. On the other hand, the judgment of the direction and intensity of the imbalance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand directly determines the orientation and intensity of macroeconomic policy, as well as the objectives and combination mode of macroeconomic policy.

不断深化对于统筹好总供给和总需求关系的规律性认识，对于宏观经济治理具有极为重要的意义。一方面是由于总供给和总需求之间的协调是国民经济宏观运行趋于均衡的基本条件，总供求之间的失衡是社会再生产各环节、各方面失衡累积的结果；同时，总量失衡又会深刻影响国民经济循环畅通，供求关系上的失衡是市场经济条件下市场失灵的集中体现。另一方面，对总供给和总需求失衡方向和强度的判断，直接决定了宏观经济政策的导向和力度，以及宏观经济政策的目标及组合方式。

In the economic practice of various countries, especially from China’s economic development experience, properly handling the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand requires, on the one hand, that aggregate supply and aggregate demand not be separated. As General Secretary Xi Jinping stated, “Abandoning the demand side to talk about the supply

在各国经济实践中，尤其是从我国经济发展经验来看，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，一方面，不能将总供给和总需求割裂开来。正如习近平总书记所说：“放弃需求侧谈供给侧或放弃供给侧谈需求侧都是片面的，二者不是非此即彼、一去一存的替代关系，而是要相互配合，协调推进。”另一方面，在二者对立统一矛盾运动中实施宏观经济政策，要根据总量失衡的特点，有针对性地明确重点，并及时适应矛盾主要方面的变化加以调整。在我国改革开放以来的宏观调控探索实践中，在把握供求关系内在联系的同时，根据失衡变化调整政策作用重点，就是要不断提升二者的适配性。

At present, China’s economy is enduring increasingly severe supply-side and demand-side shocks. From the perspective of aggregate demand, insufficient demand has become a prominent problem in macroeconomic imbalance. Both the 2023 and 2024 Central Economic Work Conferences, when assessing the main problems in economic operation, listed insufficient demand as the primary issue. First, this is reflected in the price level: the comprehensive price index has been negative for a long time, causing nominal GDP growth to remain below real GDP growth for an extended period, indicating a pronounced price deflationary effect resulting from insufficient aggregate demand. Second, the marginal growth rate of consumer demand shows a clear trend of diminishing returns. The reason for this is mainly that income growth is not aligned with economic growth. Although the per capita disposable income growth rate of urban and rural residents has basically kept pace with the GDP growth rate in recent years, the income growth rate of urban residents, who are the main consumers, has long been lower than the GDP growth rate. This is related to insufficient high-quality employment and worsening structural unemployment. At the same time, the relatively large income gap has, to some extent, lowered the overall consumption propensity of society. Additionally, at the macro level, the share of residents’ income in national income has been relatively low for a long time, leading to a blockage in the production and consumption cycle of the national economy. Third, the growth rate of investment demand is showing a declining trend. The reason for this is mainly that enterprises have low expectations for investment profits, and insufficient innovation leads to a scarcity of competitive, high-return investment opportunities. At the same time, private enterprises lack confidence in investment.

当前，我国经济承受日益严重的供给和需求双向冲击。从总需求看，需求不足已经成为宏观经济失衡的突出问题。2023年和2024年中央经济工作会议在研判经济运行存在的主要问题时，都将需求不足列为首要问题。一是体现在价格水平上，综合价格指数长期为负值，导致名义GDP增长长期低于实际GDP增长，表明总需求不足形成的价格紧缩效应突出。二是消费需求增长边际递减态势明显。究其原因，主要是收入增长与经济增长不相适应。虽然近年来城乡居民人均可支配收入增速与GDP增速实现了基本同步，但作为消费主体的城市居民收入增速长期低于GDP增速，而这又与髙质量就业不足和结构性失业加剧有关；同时收入水平差距较大在一定程度上降低了全社会消费倾向；加之宏观上居民收入占国民收入比重长期相对偏低，引致国民经济生产和消费循环不畅。三是投资需求增速呈递减态势。究其原因，主要是企业投资利润预期不高，创新力不足导致有竞争性的高回报投资机会稀缺。同时，民营企业投资信心不足。

From the perspective of aggregate supply, at the micro level, enterprises still face many difficulties in production and operation; at the meso level, industrial transformation has created new structural contradictions; at the macro level, there are numerous risks in the national economic cycle. First, some enterprises lack the innovation capacity to adapt to profound changes in economic conditions. The micro-level manifestation of the "Achilles' heel" of China's economy remains prominent. Under the compounded impact of various adverse domestic and international factors, the contradiction of insufficient resilience has become particularly acute. This is notably reflected in: on the one hand, declining corporate profitability and weak investment expectations and confidence; on the other hand, a slowdown in corporate circulation, rapid growth in outstanding receivables, and a prominent problem of mutual arrears between enterprises. Second, the differentiation in the process of industrial structural transformation is relatively severe. Pillar industries are still in deep adjustment; emerging industries are growing rapidly but account for a relatively low proportion; traditional pillar industries are accelerating their decline, creating a contraction effect on aggregate supply. Third, rising factor costs, particularly the reduction in the labor force, the deepening degree of aging, rising environmental costs and energy price fluctuations, as well as the intensifying trend of decarbonization, generate strong uncertainties that severely and persistently impact aggregate supply.

从总供给看，微观上企业生产经营仍面临较多困难，中观上产业转型形成新的结构性矛盾，宏观上国民经济循环风险较多。一是一部分企业创新力难以适应经济条件的深刻转变。我国经济“阿喀琉斯之踵”在微观上的体现仍然较为突出，在国内外各种不利因素叠加的冲击下，抗击打能力不足的矛盾表现得尤为尖锐，突出表现在：一方面，企业盈利能力下降，投资预期信心不足；另一方面，企业循环放慢，应收未收账款增速较快，相互拖欠账款问题突出。二是产业结构转型过程中的分化较为严重。支柱产业仍处于深度调整中，新兴产业快速成长但占比较低，传统支柱产业加速衰退，形成总供给收缩效应。三是要素成本上升，特别是劳动力人口减少，老龄化程度不断加深，环境成本上升和能源价格波动以及脱碳趋势加剧等形成较强的不确定性等，严重并长期冲击总供给。

From the perspective of the international economic environment, especially the escalating suppression of China by the United States and the West, coupled with the markedly increased uncertainty in the world economy itself, this creates adverse external shocks to both China's demand and supply. First, changes in tariff policies by the US and the West toward China are expected to negatively impact China's export demand while also producing a negative supply contraction effect. Second, changes in the monetary policies of major economies such as the United States, after their high inflation has been brought under some control and interest rates have been continuously cut, the overall expected magnitude of rate cuts has weakened. This may indirectly suppress the upward movement of the RMB exchange rate. Moreover, the gaming among major Western economies may further exacerbate RMB exchange rate volatility, thereby not only directly affecting China's exports but also impacting China's domestic production scale through effects on imports and capital markets. Third, the technological blockade by the US and the West against China continues to intensify. Particularly since the implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act in 2022, the US has been continuously extending its list of technology sanctions against China. In 2024, it also issued an executive order restricting US investments in China, limiting US investment in sensitive sectors in China. This impacts both China's enterprises and industrial chains from the supply side and impacts China's investment demand and exports from the demand side.

从国际经济环境看，特别是美西方对我国的打压不断升级，加之世界经济本身的不确定性明显加剧，对我国经济的需求和供给均形成不利外部冲击。一是美西方对我国的关税政策变化，预计在冲击我国出口需求的同时，会产生负面的供给紧缩效应。二是美国等主要经济体货币政策的变化，在其高通胀得到一定控制并持续降息之后，整体降息幅度预期减弱，或可能间接抑制人民币汇率上行，并且美西方主要经济体的博弈，可能进一步加剧人民币汇率波动，从而不仅直接影响我国出口，而且会通过对进口和资本市场的影响，冲击我国国内生产规模。三是美西方对我国的技术封锁持续加剧，特别是2022年实施《芯片和科学法案》以来，美国对我国不断拉长科技制裁清单，2024年又颁布了对华投资限制的行政命令，限制美国对中国敏感领域的投资，既从供给侧冲击我国企业和产业链，又从需求侧冲击我国投资需求和出口。

Therefore, the current macroeconomy of our country presents a pattern of simultaneous convergence of both demand and supply. Overall, especially in the near term, the shock of demand contraction is greater than that of supply contraction. Risks related to real estate, local government and enterprise debt, exchange rate fluctuations and monetary finance, international geopolitical changes, trade frictions, and the sluggish global recovery are mutually compounding. This further requires us to properly balance the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand in order to smooth the national economic cycle. It is necessary to accurately grasp the objective laws and changing characteristics of the contradictory movement between supply and demand, paying attention both to the unity of their intrinsic organic connection and to the particularity of changes in the principal aspect of the contradiction under different conditions. We must steadfastly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, strengthen and expand the domestic economic cycle, expand space for international cooperation while opening up wider, achieve a higher-level positive interaction between the domestic and international dual circulations, continuously deepen supply-side structural reform, strive to resolve structural contradictions between demand and supply, and place greater emphasis on using high-quality supply to lead and create demand.

因此，当前我国宏观经济呈现同时面临需求供给双收敛的格局，并且总体上看，特别是就近期而言，需求收缩的冲击力大于供给收缩。房地产风险、地方政府和企业债务风险、汇率波动及货币金融风险、国际地缘政治变化风险、贸易摩擦及全球复苏迟缓风险等相互叠加。这更要求我们进一步统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，以畅通国民经济循环。要准确把握供给和需求相互矛盾运动的客观规律及变化特点，既注重二者内在有机联系上的统一性，又关注不同条件下矛盾主要方面变化的特殊性。坚定实施扩大内需战略，做大做强国内大循环，在扩大开放中拓展国际合作空间，实现国内国际双循环在更高水平上的良性互动，持续深化供给侧结构性改革，着力破解需求和供给的结构性矛盾，更加注重以高质量供给引领需求创造需求。

To properly balance the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, it is necessary to improve the macroeconomic governance system and effectively leverage the advantages of macroeconomic regulation under China's socialist market economy. First, leverage the governance advantage of aligning the national medium- and long-term economic and social development strategic plan with annual macroeconomic policy objectives. Balancing aggregate supply and aggregate demand and promoting their tendency toward equilibrium is not the fundamental purpose of macroeconomic regulation and governance, but rather a condition for achieving effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth. A prominent feature and important advantage of China's economic system and institutions lies in the ability, through the national development strategic plan, to guide various economic policies at the macro level and coordinate annual growth with long-term development goals. The basic connotation of balancing aggregate supply and aggregate demand is to coordinate the structure and aggregate of various aspects of economic development and to harmonize the short-term and long-term goals of economic development. The year 2025 is the final year for implementing the 14th Five-Year Plan [6]6 The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) is China's national economic and social development plan, setting targets for growth, innovation, and social welfare.. Whether its economic growth target can be achieved directly concerns the successful completion of the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan and lays a solid foundation for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan [7]7 The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is the upcoming national development plan, currently in the preparatory stage.. Second, enrich and effectively utilize a policy system primarily based on fiscal and monetary policies, with coordination among various economic policies, to provide richer and more flexible policy tools for enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance. While enhancing the primary role of fiscal and monetary policies in macroeconomic regulation, coordinate industrial policy, regional policy, investment policy, consumption policy, as well as employment, trade, environmental protection, regulatory, and pricing policies with macroeconomic aggregate policies. Improve and utilize the mechanism for assessing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientations, uniformly incorporate both economic and non-economic policies into consistency assessments, coordinate the entire process of policy formulation and implementation, and enhance the matching degree of policy objectives, tools, timing, intensity, and pace. Third, innovate and adjust the combination of macroeconomic policies, especially fiscal and monetary policies. According to changes in the characteristics of macroeconomic imbalance, timely adjust the combination structure of macroeconomic policies. Particularly in response to the new change of simultaneous contraction in both supply and demand, with the demand-side contradiction being more prominent, it is extremely necessary to adjust from the previous combination structure and intensity matching of a "proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy" to a "more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately accommodative monetary policy." Fourth, further deepen reforms comprehensively, build a high-level socialist market economy system, and create an institutional foundation for properly balancing aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The contradictory movement of the supply-demand relationship occurs under market economy conditions. The socialist market economy's institutional foundation and policy system have greater advantages for balancing this relationship. The key lies in following the spirit of the resolutions of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC [8]8 The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC, held in July 2024, focused on further deepening reform comprehensively to advance Chinese modernization., by further deepening reforms comprehensively to build a high-level socialist market economy system. So-called demand-led supply means that the key lies in pulling, constraining, stimulating, and promoting the level and quality of supply based on market demand and its changes, to enhance the match with market demand. So-called supply-creating demand means that the key lies in improving supply quality under hard market constraints through market competition, improving the supply structure, driving a substantial increase in total factor productivity, reducing costs, enhancing efficiency, expanding the capacity for high-level and high-quality supply, and stimulating effective demand in market competition through high quality and low prices. In China, to properly balance aggregate supply and aggregate demand, it is necessary to persist in coordinating the implementation of various economic policies with reform and opening up measures. Reform and opening up itself is an important component of China's macroeconomic governance system. This is not only a historical particularity as a country undergoing economic transition but also a crucial magic weapon for a developing country to catch up with the times in big strides. Under conditions of a shortage economy, there objectively exists a trend of demand strongly pulling supply. At a relatively low stage of economic development, especially during the development period of crossing the "poverty trap," supply-creating demand has broad space. Entering the new development stage, with systematic changes in the objective function and constraint function of economic development, the self-consistency ability of supply and demand has markedly weakened. It is necessary to further deepen reforms comprehensively, build a high-level socialist market economy system, and coordinate an "effective market and a competent government" to more fully cultivate and release effective demand, expand supply with greater market competitiveness, and especially create institutional and mechanism conditions for the development of new quality productive forces, promoting the coordination and balance of supply and demand under new production methods and higher output levels.

统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，需要完善宏观经济治理体系，切实发挥我国社会主义市场经济条件下宏观经济调控的优势。一是发挥以国家经济社会中长期发展战略规划与年度宏观经济政策目标相互衔接的治理优势。统筹总供给和总需求，推动二者趋向均衡，并不是宏观经济调控和治理的根本目的，而是为实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长创造条件。我国经济发展的制度和体制的突出特点和重要优势，便在于能够通过国家发展战略规划，在宏观上引领各项经济政策，协调年度增长与长期发展目标。统筹总供给和总需求的关系的基本内涵，就是统筹经济发展各个方面的结构和总量，协调经济发展的短期与长期目标。2025年是“十四五”规划收官之年，其经济增长目标能否实现，直接关系到能否高质量完成“十四五”规划目标任务，并为“十五五”良好开局打牢基础。二是丰富并运用好以财政政策、货币政策为主，各方面经济政策相互协调的政策体系，为提高宏观经济治理效能提供更为丰富灵活的政策工具。在提高财政和货币政策的宏观调控主体作用的同时，把产业政策、区域政策、投资政策、消费政策以及就业、贸易、环保、监管、价格政策等与宏观经济总量政策协调起来。健全和用好宏观政策取向一致性评估工作机制，把经济政策和非经济性政策统一纳入一致性评估，统筹政策制定和执行全过程，提升政策目标、工具、时机、力度、节奏的匹配度。三是创新并调整宏观经济政策，特别是财政、货币政策的组合方式。根据宏观经济失衡特点的变化，适时调整宏观经济政策组合结构。特别是针对当前供给和需求双向萎缩且需求侧矛盾更为突出的新变化，由此前的“积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策”的组合结构和力度搭配，调整为“更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策”是极为必要的。四是进一步全面深化改革，构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，为统筹好总供给和总需求的关系创造制度基础。供求关系矛盾运动是在市场经济条件下实现的，社会主义市场经济制度基础和政策体系对于统筹好二者关系更具优势，关键在于要按照党的二十届三中全会决议精神，通过进一步全面深化改革，构建起高水平的社会主义市场经济体制。所谓需求牵引供给，关键在于根据市场需求及其变化，拉动供给、约束供给、刺激供给、推动供给水平和质量提升，以提升与市场需求的匹配度；所谓供给创造需求，关键在于通过市场竞争，在市场硬约束下提高供给质量，改善供给结构，拉动全要素生产率大幅提升，降低成本、提升效率，扩大高水平高质量的供给能力，以物美价廉在市场竞争中刺激有效需求。在我国统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，需要坚持把各项经济政策的实施与改革开放举措协调配合起来。改革开放本身是我国宏观经济治理体系的重要构成，这既是作为经济转型国家的历史特殊性，更是作为发展中国家大踏步赶上时代的制胜法宝。在短缺经济条件下，客观上存在着需求强力拉动供给的趋势；在经济发展水平较低的阶段，特别是跨越“贫困陷阱”的发展时期，供给创造需求具有广阔空间。进入新发展阶段，伴随经济发展目标函数和约束函数的系统变化，供给和需求自洽能力明显减弱，必须通过进一步全面深化改革，构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，统筹“有效的市场，有为的政府”，才能更充分地培育和释放有效需求，扩大更具市场竞争力的供给，特别是为新质生产力发展创造体制机制条件，在新的生产方式和更高产出水平的条件下，推进供求协调平衡。

Online editor: Paul

网络编辑：保罗