The Unprecedented Changes Unseen in a Century in the World from the Perspective of Marxist Philosophy

With the deepening of economic globalization and social informatization, the mutual connections and interdependence among countries around the world are increasingly intensifying. For China to develop, it must plan its布局 with a global mindset and conform to the trends of world development. The world today is undergoing changes unseen in a century. The academic community generally believes that the core of these unprecedented changes in the world is a shift in the balance of international forces in the 21st century from "the West is strong and the East is weak" to "the East is rising and the West is declining," with its prominent manifestation being the relative decline of the United States and the rapid rise of China. At the same time, because the Western developed capitalist countries represented by the United States are unwilling to give up their established advantageous position, various discursive traps that provide justification for suppressing China's rise—such as "the theory that a strong country is bound to seek hegemony," "the China threat theory," and "Chinese revisionism"—along with various strategic containment actions aimed at disrupting and obstructing China's construction of a modern socialist power—such as "trade wars," "the technology decoupling strategy," "entity lists," "accusations and crackdowns on ZTE and Huawei," "using issues related to Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and

随着经济全球化、社会信息化的深入发展，世界各国相互联系相互依存日益加深。中国要发展，必须以全球思维谋篇布局，必须顺应世界发展潮流。当下世界正处于百年未有之大变局，学界普遍认为，这种世界百年未有之大变局的核心是21世纪国际力量对比出现从“西强东弱”转向“东升西降”发展态势，其突出表现是美国的相对衰落和中国的快速崛起。与此同时，因为以美国为代表的西方发达资本主义国家不愿放弃既有优势地位，“国强必霸论”“中国威胁论”“中国修正主义”等各种为打压中国崛起提供合理性证明的话语圈套，“贸易战”“科技脱钩战略”“实体清单”“指控封杀中兴华为”“借涉疆涉港涉台问题挑起中国民族矛盾、认同矛盾”“军事挑衅”等各种试图搅乱和阻挠中国建设社会主义现代化强国进程的战略牵制行动一再出现。面对世界百年未有之大变局带来的重要机遇和严峻挑战，客观认知是科学应对的先导，但当前国内不少民众对世界百年未有之大变局的认识浮于表面，陷入片面，集中表现为偶因决定论倾向、主观臆变论倾向和历史直线论倾向等。习近平总书记强调：“要树立世界眼光、把握时代脉搏，要把世界的风云变幻看准、看清、看透，从林林总总的表现中发现本质，尤其要认清长远趋势。”本文根据马克思主义世界观和方法论，按照事物运动的过去-现在-未来时间轴顺序，分三大部分尝试较为全面深刻揭示世界百年未有之大变局的由来、样态和发展趋势，并分别简要指出其现实启示意义。针对当前国内不少民众对世界百年未有之大变局的片面认知倾向，文章侧重阐述世界百年未有之大变局由来中的必然性，样态中的未变方面，发展趋势中的不确定性。

I. The Origin of the Unprecedented Changes in a Century in the World: Contingency within Necessity

一、世界百年未有之大变局的由来是偶然性中有必然性

The so-called unprecedented changes in a century in the world refer to the great development, great transformation, great adjustment, great turning point, and great progress in the world that profoundly influence the direction and process of human history over a relatively long historical period. "It means that the current international格局[n1] and international system are undergoing profound adjustment, the global governance system is undergoing profound transformation, the balance of international forces is undergoing the most revolutionary change since modern times, and the world is presenting major trends that affect the course and direction of human history." Regarding the origin of the unprecedented changes in a century in the world, some in academia advocate the theory of major events as causes. Among the more representative views are: Guo Shuyong and Ding Weihang propose that the unprecedented changes in a century in the world are the common political consequence of four major changes experienced by human society in the 100 years from 1919 to 2019: (1) the outbreak of two wars for world hegemony, with World War II and the Cold War leading to the collapse of the worldwide colonial system; (2) the formation of a competitive coexistence among multiple world political forces, including capitalist, socialist, and nationalist states, on a global scale; (3) the so-called transfer of world power between the United States and Britain; (4) the expansion of a multipolar pattern from Europe to the globe after two failed attempts to establish a bipolar structure. Another example: Quan Heng argues that the unprecedented changes in a century in the world are inseparable from four major events since the 21st century, namely "the 2008 global financial crisis," "China becoming the world's second-largest economy in 2010," "China's proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013," and "the Sino-US trade friction in 2018." The theory of major events as causes highlights the connection between the unprecedented changes in a century in the world and a series of major historical facts. This observational perspective is evidently reasonable.

所谓世界百年未有之大变局，是指在一个相对较长的历史时期深刻影响人类历史发展方向和进程的世界大发展、大变化、大调整、大转折、大进步。“就是当前国际格局和国际体系正在发生深刻调整，全球治理体系正在发生深刻变革，国际力量对比正在发生近代以来最具革命性的变化，世界范围呈现出影响人类历史进程和趋向的重大态势。”关于世界百年未有之大变局的由来，学界有人主张重大事件动因论，其中比较有代表性的观点有：郭树勇、丁伟航提出世界百年未有之大变局是从1919年至2019年的100年人类社会经历了四次重大变化的共同政治后果：（1）爆发两次争夺世界霸权的战争，第二次世界大战和冷战导致世界性殖民体系的崩溃；（2）全球范围内形成资本主义、社会主义和民族主义国家等多种世界性政治力量竞争共存的局面；（3）美国和英国实现所谓世界性权力的转移；（4）两次建立两极格局的努力失败后多极化格局从欧洲向全球扩展。又如：权衡主张世界百年未有之大变局离不开21世纪以来四件重大事件，即“2008年全球金融危机”“2010年中国成为世界第二大经济体”“2013年中国提出‘一带一路’倡议”“2018年中美贸易摩擦”。重大事件动因论凸显了世界百年未有之大变局与一系列重大历史事实之间的联系，这种观察视角显然有其合理性。

However, since major events in human history are often triggered by some accidental fuse or even in the form of "black swans," if the analysis of the causes of the unprecedented changes in a century in the world only remains at the intuitive description of major events in the evolution of the world格局[n1] and neglects the exploration of the necessary factors that dominate and constrain major historical events, it can easily slide into a contingent determinist view of history. Contingent determinism essentially denies the universal existence of necessary causal connections in the development of human social history, and in practice, it can easily lead people toward opportunism. There has been no shortage of followers of contingent determinism in the long river of human history. Currently, there is also a certain tendency toward contingent determinism hidden in the popular understanding of the origin of the unprecedented changes in a century in the world. Many people subconsciously pin China's national fortunes on the psychological expectation of more luck for our side and more misfortune for competitors. Dialectical materialism holds that the connection and development of the world are the unity of necessity and contingency. Necessity exists within contingency, and contingency is governed by necessity. "Historical events seem on the whole to be likewise governed by chance. But where on the surface accident holds sway, it is always governed by inner, hidden laws, and it is only a matter of discovering these laws." The key to accurately grasping the origin of the unprecedented changes in a century in the world is to uncover the necessary factors behind the contingent manifestations in the evolution of the world格局[n1]. From the perspective of Marxist philosophy, the necessity of the origin of the unprecedented changes in a century in the world lies in the laws of dialectical movement of the objective material world and the laws governing the operation of the basic contradictions of human social development.

但由于人类历史重大事件经常由某种偶因式导火索甚至“黑天鹅”的形式引发，对世界百年未有之大变局的动因分析如果仅停留于世界格局演变进程中重大事件的直观描述，而忽视对主导制约历史重大事件的必然性因素的发掘，则容易滑向偶因决定论历史观。偶因决定论在本质上否认人类社会历史发展普遍存在着必然的因果联系，在实践中容易使人走向机会主义。人类历史长河中一直不乏偶因决定论的追随者，当下民间对世界百年未有之大变局由来的认知中也暗藏着某种偶因决定论倾向，不少民众潜意识中将中国国运寄托于我方更多的幸运和竞争对手更多的霉运的心理期待中。辩证唯物主义主张，世界的联系和发展是必然性和偶然性的统一，必然性存在于偶然性之中，偶然性受制于必然性。“历史事件似乎总的说来同样是由偶然性支配着的。但是，在表面上是偶然性在起作用的地方，这种偶然性始终是受内部的隐蔽着的规律支配的。而问题只是在于发现这些规律”，准确把握世界百年未有之大变局由来的着力点，是透过世界格局演变进程中的偶然性表现发掘其背后的必然性因素。在马克思主义哲学视野中，世界百年未有之大变局由来的必然性存在于客观物质世界辩证运动规律和人类社会发展基本矛盾运行规律之中。

1. The Relative Decline of the West Is the Inevitable Result of the Universal Connection and Eternal Development of the World

1.西方相对衰落是世界普遍联系和永恒发展的必然结果

Over the past 500-odd years of modern history, Western society has dominated the world order because it was the first to initiate industrialization. This situation gave rise to a metaphysical view of history, holding that "the capitalist system is the most perfect system and will exist eternally." After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the drastic changes in Eastern Europe, this view of history further evolved into the "end of history" thesis. The Marxist view of history is fundamentally different from this metaphysical view of history in essence.

近代500多年以来，西方社会因率先开启工业化一直主导着世界秩序。这一情况催生了一种形而上学历史观，认为“资本主义制度是最完美的制度并将永恒存在”，在苏联解体、东欧剧变后，这一历史观更是演变为“历史终结论”。马克思主义历史观与这种形而上学历史观在本质上存在着根本的不同。

First, dialectical materialism holds that the entire world is a whole of universal connection, and connection has objectivity, universality, diversity, and conditionality. The process of economic globalization has deepened the connections between countries in the world. Today, no country in the world can develop in isolation; when specific conditions are formed, no country can determine the development direction of the entire world格局[n1] solely by its own subjective will. The scientific and technological revolution has spurred the rapid development of productive forces, greatly promoting the formation of the unprecedented changes in a century in the world. Its driving process, in a diachronic perspective, roughly presents as: new scientific theories → new factors of production (tools) → new investment hotspots and job positions → economic transformation and upgrading → new economies of scale → restructuring of the global innovation map → reshaping of the global economic structure → changes in the balance of international forces → major adjustment of the international order. Entering the new century, as the processes of economic globalization, social informatization, and world multipolarization deepened, advanced Western science and technology spread rapidly in a network pattern across the globe. Emerging market countries and developing countries strove to catch up, consciously shifting from learning and importing technology to innovating technology, and then rising collectively. The balance of international forces inevitably underwent a major turning point and adjustment. Just as Eastern countries in the 15th century could not control the development of the world格局[n1] toward a "West strong, East weak" trend, today's Western countries equally cannot control the development of the world格局[n1] toward an "East rising, West declining" trend.

首先，辩证唯物主义主张整个世界是一个普遍联系的整体，联系具有客观性、普遍性、多样性和条件性。经济全球化进程加深了世界各国之间的联系，当今世界没有任何国家能够孤立发展；当特定条件形成，没有任何国家能仅凭自己的主观意志决定整个世界格局的发展走向。科技革命促使生产力迅猛发展，极大地推动了世界百年未有之大变局的形成，其驱动进程在历时态上大致呈现为：新的科学理论→新的生产要素（工具）→新的投资热点、就业岗位→经济转型升级→新的规模化经济效益→全球创新版图重构→全球经济结构重塑→国际力量对比变化→国际秩序大调整。进入新世纪，当经济全球化、社会信息化、世界多极化进程加深，西方先进科技向全球加速网状扩散，新兴市场国家和发展中国家奋力追赶，并自觉从学习、引进科技向创新科技转变，进而群体性崛起，国际力量对比必然随之发生大转折大调整。正如15世纪的东方国家不能左右世界格局向着“西强东弱”的态势发展，今日的西方国家同样也不能左右世界格局向着“东升西降”的态势发展。

Second, dialectical materialism holds that the world is in eternal development, that everything existing is necessarily doomed to perish, and that the world is a collection of processes. Viewed across the entire course of human development, although each new mode of production and each new social form in history once demonstrated a tremendous role in promoting the development of human society, they were ultimately sublated by the new things that followed. The technological-social forms of human history have roughly undergone a transition from fishing-hunting society → agrarian society → industrial society, and are currently moving toward an intelligent society; the economic-social forms of human history have roughly undergone a transition from primitive society → slave society → feudal society → capitalist society, and are currently in a period where capitalism and socialism coexist and gradually transition toward communist society. The capitalist mode of production, based on industrial civilization, as a new thing at a specific stage in the historical process of humanity, although "the bourgeoisie, during its rule of scarce one hundred years, has created more massive and more colossal productive forces than have all preceding generations together," [2]2 Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, *The Communist Manifesto* (1848). is ultimately constrained by the dialectical laws of motion of the objective material world, and its powerful vitality and creativity cannot be maintained permanently. At the same time, the accelerated development of science and technology in modern society, especially the impending fourth scientific and technological revolution, will greatly increase the labor productivity of the entire society; the shareability of knowledge and information opens new paths for public ownership of the means of production; production automation and intellectualization provide new possibilities for the liberation of human labor and the free and comprehensive development of the individual, thereby laying a solid material foundation for communist society. The grand tide of history surges forward mightily. Although the specific timing, triggers, and modalities of the decline of Western civilization, with the capitalist mode of production at its core, are contingent, it will inevitably decline and will ultimately and necessarily be replaced by communist society.

其次，辩证唯物主义主张世界是永恒发展的，认为凡是现存的都是必然灭亡的，世界是过程的集合体。从人类发展整个进程来看，尽管历史中每一种新的生产方式和新的社会形态都曾显示出对人类社会发展的巨大促进作用，但最终又都被后面的新生事物所扬弃。人类历史技术社会形态大致经历了从渔猎社会→农耕社会→工业社会的转换，当下正在向智能社会迈进；人类历史经济社会形态大致经历了从原始社会→奴隶社会→封建社会→资本主义社会的转换，当下正处于资本主义与社会主义共存并向共产主义社会逐步过渡的时期。以工业文明为基础的资本主义生产方式作为人类历史进程中某一特定阶段的新生事物，尽管“资产阶级在它的不到一百年的阶级统治中所创造的生产力,比过去一切世代创造的全部生产力还要多,还要大”，但归根结底受客观物质世界辩证运动规律的制约，其强大生命力和创造力不可能永久保持。与此同时，现代社会科技加速发展，特别是正在来临的第四次科技革命将极大提高全社会劳动生产率，知识信息的可共享性为生产资料公有制开辟新道路，生产自动化、智能化为人的劳动解放和自由全面发展提供新的可能性空间，这将为共产主义社会奠定坚实的物质基础。历史大势浩浩荡荡，奔涌向前。尽管以资本主义生产方式为内核的西方文明走向衰落的具体时间、诱因、方式等具有偶然性，但必然会走向衰落，最终必然要被共产主义社会所取代。

2. The Relative Decline of the West Is the Inevitable Result of the Operation of the Basic Contradiction of Capitalist Society

2.西方相对衰落是资本主义社会基本矛盾运行的必然结果

Marx pointed out that the consciousness of an epoch of transformation must be explained "from the contradictions of material life, from the conflict existing between the social forces of production and the relations of production," [3]3 Karl Marx, "Preface to *A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy*" (1859). and that "at a certain stage of development, the material productive forces of society come into conflict with the existing relations of production or—this merely expresses the same thing in legal terms—with the property relations within the framework of which they have operated hitherto. From forms of development of the productive forces these relations turn into their fetters." [4]4 Ibid. One concrete economic manifestation of the basic contradiction between capitalist private ownership of the means of production and the social character of production is the contradiction between the tendency of production to expand without limit and the relative contraction of workers' effective demand. The ceaseless pursuit of the valorization of value is the dominant logic of production in capitalist society. Although the logic of capital domination has produced the brilliant achievements of capitalism, it cannot fundamentally resolve the problem of polarization between people or the problem of the imbalance in the relationship between humanity and nature.

马克思指出，一个变革时代的意识必须“从物质生活的矛盾中，从社会生产力和生产关系之间的现存冲突中去解释”，“社会的物质生产力发展到一定阶段，便同它们一直在其中运动的现存生产关系或财产关系（这只是生产关系的法律用语）发生矛盾。于是这些关系便由生产力的发展形式变成生产力的桎梏”。生产资料资本主义私人占有与生产社会化的基本矛盾在经济上一个具体表现是生产无限扩大的趋势与劳动者有限支付能力的需求相对缩小之间的矛盾。永无休止追求价值的增殖是资本主义社会生产的主导逻辑，资本主导的逻辑虽然造就了资本主义的辉煌成就，但无法从根本上解决人与人的两极分化问题和人与自然关系失衡问题。

Under the conditions of economic globalization, the boundless pursuit of the valorization of capital by international monopoly capital not only triggers a series of global problems, such as resources, the ecological environment, and non-traditional security, seriously threatening human survival and sustainable development, but also leads to a contradiction worldwide between the tendency of production to expand without limit and the insufficiency of the global market capacity. "The logic of capital domination aims at chasing and appropriating surplus value on a global scale, and when the dividends of market space and technological innovation in a certain stage have been exhausted, capitalism will fall into difficulties." [5]5 Source not identified in the original text; likely a paraphrase or quotation from a contemporary Chinese scholar. The pace of growth needed by the whole of human society cannot keep up with the pace of capital's global expansion; this is the root cause of the 2008 international financial crisis and the long-term sluggish growth of the world economy that followed.

经济全球化背景下国际垄断资本对资本增殖的无限追求，不仅引发资源、生态环境、非传统意义安全等一系列全球问题，使人类生存与可持续发展受到严重威胁，同时，还导致全世界范围内生产无限扩大的趋势与全球市场容量不足之间的矛盾。“资本主导的逻辑以在全世界范围内追逐和攫取剩余价值为目的，而当某个阶段市场空间和技术创新的红利被攫取殆尽的时候，资本主义就会出现困境”，全人类社会需要增长的步伐赶不上资本全球扩张的步伐，这是2008年国际金融危机及其后世界经济长期增长乏力的根源。

Currently, the Western developed capitalist countries dominated by the logic of capital are mired in severe internal difficulties and crises. For example, economically, they are trapped in financialization, industrial hollowing-out, the externalization of capital movement costs, and the globalization of economic crises; politically, they are trapped in electoral democracy divorced from public opinion, the oligarchization of public politics, the formation of veto politics, and the shattering of the myth of democratic performance; socially, they are trapped in widening wealth gaps, the decline of the middle class, diminished social mobility, intensified social conflict, and welfare systems challenged by economic globalization, neoliberal ideology, and an aging population; spiritually and culturally, they are trapped in the principles of desire domination and sensory supremacy, being devoured by the logic of capital, and invaded by postmodernity and nihilism; diplomatically, they are trapped in the search for enemies, democratic expansion, strategic imbalance, and moral image dilemmas. [6]6 The list of "traps" (困境) in this sentence is a summary of Western crises commonly discussed in Chinese Marxist political analysis. This all-encompassing predicament, which cannot be effectively overcome within its own development paradigm and institutional logic, when accumulated to a point where it cannot be self-adjusted and is ignited by contingent factors, will inevitably lead to the decline of the West. In this sense, the relative decline of the West is the inevitable result of the operation of the basic contradiction of capitalist society.

当前资本逻辑主导下的西方发达资本主义国家陷入严重内部困境和危机中，比如，经济陷入金融化、产业空心化、资本运动成本外部化、经济危机全球化等困境；政治陷入选举民主远离民意、公共政治寡头化、否决政治形成、民主绩效神话破灭等困境；社会陷入贫富差距扩大、中产阶级衰落、社会流动性减弱、社会冲突加剧、福利制度遭受经济全球化、新自由主义思潮和人口老龄化挑战等困境；精神文化陷入欲望主宰和感性至上原则，被资本逻辑吞噬、后现代性与虚无主义侵袭等困境；外交陷入寻找敌人、民主拓展、战略失衡和道义形象等困境。这种全方位，且难以在其发展范式和制度逻辑内有效克服的困境积累到无法自我调整的程度，被偶因点燃，就必然导致西方走向衰落，在这个意义上，西方相对衰落是资本主义基本矛盾运行的必然结果。

3. The Rise of Emerging Market Economies and Developing Countries Is the Inevitable Result of the Development of New Things

3.新兴市场国家和发展中国家崛起是新生事物发展的必然结果

Materialist dialectics holds that development is the extinction of old things and the emergence of new things. New things that conform to the trend of historical development and have a bright future will inevitably replace old things in the end. Moreover, as far as the development of things is concerned, it is determined by the principal contradiction of things. "In the great changes in the world, China's sustained and rapid development and the continuous advancement of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation have become the main driving force behind the evolution of the world pattern." [7]7 Source not identified in the original text; likely a paraphrase of a statement by Xi Jinping or a Chinese policy document. This determines that the most prominent feature of the unprecedented changes in a century in the world today is "the rise of the East and the decline of the West," with China increasingly moving to the center of the world stage. In addition, there are some new and developing forces in the world that are pushing forward, forming a powerful resultant force.

唯物辩证法主张，发展是旧事物灭亡和新生事物的产生，符合历史发展趋势，具有远大前途的新生事物必将最后取代旧的事物，而且就事物的发展而言，是由事物的主要矛盾决定的，“在世界大变局中，中国持续快速发展，中华民族伟大复兴不断前进，成为世界格局演变背后的主要推动力量”。这就决定了当今世界百年未有之大变局的最突出特点，就是“东升西降”，中国日益走近世界舞台的中央。除此以外，世界上还有一些新生的、发展的力量在推动，形成一种强大的合力。

First, emerging market economies and developing countries can rapidly absorb the advanced technologies, institutions, and concepts of Western developed countries in the process of economic globalization. Technology can realize its value only when applied to production and life practices. Once technology is applied in practice, it will inevitably begin the process of diffusion from the inventor → producer (consumer) → competitor. The larger the scale of production and the wider the scope of production, the broader the scope of technology sharing and diffusion. This is an objective law that is not subject to the will of any country or actor. "From the most macroscopic historical perspective, knowledge diffusion is one of the most fundamental factors influencing the rise of emerging countries." [8]8 Source not identified in the original text.

其一，新兴市场国家和发展中国家在经济全球化进程中能够迅速吸收西方发达国家的先进技术、制度和理念。科技只有用于生产生活实践方能实现其价值，而科技一旦应用于实践，就必将开始从发明者→生产者（消费者）→竞争者扩散的进程。生产规模越大，生产跨域越宽，科技分享和扩散的范围也越广，这是不以任何国家或行为主体的意志为转移的客观规律，“从最宏观的历史层面上看，知识扩散是影响新兴国家崛起的最根本因素之一”。

Second, as latecomers, emerging market economies and developing countries not only do not need to repeat the "serial" modernization process that Western developed countries advanced in sequence but can pursue a "parallel" modernization process, that is, simultaneously and synergistically advancing marketization, industrialization, urbanization, informatization, intellectualization, democratization, and law-based governance. They can also learn from the experiences and lessons of the modernization process of the first-mover countries in terms of technological, economic, and social development, avoid detours, and thus greatly shorten the catch-up time, achieving "latecomers surpassing the forerunners."

其二，新兴市场国家和发展中国家作为后发国家，不仅无须重复西方发达国家按顺序推进的“串联式”现代化进程，而走“并联式”现代化进程，即同步叠加推进市场化、工业化、城镇化、信息化、智能化、民主化、法治化等；还能吸取先发国家现代化进程中科技经济社会发展的经验教训，避免走弯路，从而大大缩短追赶时间，实现后来居上。

Third, the impending new round of scientific and technological revolution has brought human society into an unprecedented period of active innovation, giving rise to new concepts, new industries, new business forms, and new models. It has "overturned the 'core-periphery' positioning between developed and developing countries," [9]9 Source not identified in the original text. bringing important opportunities for emerging market economies and developing countries to implement independent technological innovation and asymmetric catch-up strategies. "The metabolism and intense competition brought about by the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation are unprecedented. They not only powerfully reconstruct the global innovation landscape and reshape the global economic structure but also profoundly change the production, lifestyle, and ways of thinking of human society, promote the transformation of relations of production, and have broad and far-reaching impacts on the international pattern and international system." [10]10 Source not identified in the original text; likely a paraphrase of a statement by Xi Jinping or a Chinese policy document.

其三，正在来临的新一轮科技革命使人类社会进入一个前所未有的创新活跃期，正在催生新理念、新产业、新业态、新模式，“颠覆了发达国家与发展中国家间的‘核心—边缘’区位”，这为新兴市场国家和发展中国家实施科技自主创新和非对称赶超战略带来重要机遇。“新一轮科技革命和产业变革带来的新陈代谢和激烈竞争前所未有，不仅有力重构全球创新版图，重塑全球经济结构，而且深刻改变人类社会生产生活方式和思维方式，推动生产关系变革，给国际格局和国际体系带来广泛深远影响。”

Fourth, emerging market economies and developing countries also possess advantages that first-mover countries do not, such as market advantages, labor advantages, and the advantages of revolutionary passion and conviction in the pursuit of national prosperity. These factors endow emerging market economies and developing countries with strong vitality and, consequently, the historical inevitability of rapid rise. In summary, since the beginning of the 21st century, a large number of emerging market economies and developing countries have developed rapidly, multipolarity in the world has accelerated, the international pattern has become increasingly balanced, and the general trend of the international tide is irreversible.

其四，新兴市场国家和发展中国家还具有先发国家所不具备的优势，如市场优势、劳动力优势、追求国家富强的革命式激情信念优势等。这些因素都使新兴市场国家和发展中国家具有强大的生命力，并进而具有快速崛起的历史必然性。总之，进入21世纪以来，一大批新兴市场国家和发展中国家快速发展，世界多极化加速发展，国际格局日趋均衡，国际潮流大势不可逆转。

Accurately penetrating the origins of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century requires us to adhere to the principle of the unity of necessity and contingency in terms of motivation theory. The contingency of the origins of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century enlightens us that, at a time of great transition, great adjustment, and great development in human history, we must be adept at promptly seizing important strategic opportunities to promote a qualitative leap in China’s development and bring it to a new level. The necessity of the origins of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century enlightens us that we must break through the mental barriers of the superiority theory of Western civilization and strengthen strategic confidence; at the same time, the current unprecedented changes unseen in a century will not exist permanently; they also have a process of emergence, development, and extinction. The laws of dialectical movement in the objective material world, especially the laws governing the operation of the fundamental contradictions of human society, fundamentally dominate the direction and process of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century. In this sense, although the profound changes in the international environment have placed China in an important period of strategic opportunity, “opportunities are not external to the laws of social development, but are the product of the operation of those laws.”

准确透视世界百年未有之大变局的由来，要求我们在动因论方面坚持必然性和偶然性相统一的原则。世界百年未有之大变局由来的偶然性启示我们，在人类历史大转折大调整大发展之际，要善于及时捕捉重要战略机遇，促进中国发展实现质的飞跃，迈上新的台阶。世界百年未有之大变局由来的必然性启示我们，要突破西方文明优越论的思维藩篱，坚定战略信心；同时，当下的世界百年未有之大变局也不会永久存在，也有一个发生、发展和灭亡的过程，客观物质世界辩证运动规律，特别是人类社会基本矛盾运行规律在根本上支配着世界百年未有之大变局的方向和进程。在这个意义上，尽管国际环境的深刻变化使我国处于重要战略机遇期，但“机遇并不是外在于社会发展规律的，而是社会发展规律作用的产物”。

Accurately penetrating the origins of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century at present requires guarding against contingent determinism and enhancing the conscious awareness and conscious action of following the objective laws of human social development.

当下准确透视世界百年未有之大变局的由来需要防范偶因决定论，增强遵循人类社会发展客观规律的意识自觉和行动自觉。

First, historical materialism holds that productive forces are the ultimate decisive force in the development of human society. “China is the world’s largest developing country, and development is the key to solving all of China’s problems.” Although China has achieved remarkable accomplishments in all aspects since reform and opening up, and its international status has continuously improved, concentrating wholeheartedly on development remains our top priority, and nothing can be done at the expense of development. In the face of international vicissitudes, we must maintain strategic focus and adhere unswervingly to taking economic construction as the central task. “Scientific and technological strength determines changes in the balance of world political and economic power, and also determines the future and destiny of each country and each nation.” The materialist dialectical method of grasping the principal contradiction requires that we must make scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening a strategic support for national development, take innovation as the primary driving force, promote the transformation and upgrading of China’s economy, enable industries to move to the mid-to-high end of the global value chain, and ultimately lay a solid material foundation for achieving national rejuvenation.

首先，历史唯物主义主张，生产力是人类社会发展的最终决定力量，“中国是世界上最大的发展中国家，发展是解决中国所有问题的关键”，尽管我国自改革开放以来各方面都取得举世瞩目的成就，国际地位不断提高，但一心一意谋发展仍是我们的第一要务，任何事情都不能以牺牲发展为代价。面对国际风云变幻，我们必须保持战略定力，坚持以经济建设为中心不动摇。而“科技实力决定着世界政治经济力量对比的变化，也决定着各国各民族的前途命运”，唯物辩证法抓主要矛盾的方法要求我们必须将科技自立自强作为国家发展的战略支撑，将创新作为第一驱动力，推动中国经济转型升级，产业迈上全球价值链中高端，最终为实现民族复兴奠定坚实的物质基础。

Second, human society is an organism. The economic base and the superstructure have a huge counteracting effect on the development of productive forces and society. We must adhere to the thinking orientation of holism, system theory, and synergy theory, and make efforts from multiple angles to respond to and guide the development of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century. The main tasks at present include: further upholding and strengthening the Party’s overall leadership, giving full play to the advantage of the socialist system in concentrating resources to accomplish major tasks; further advancing the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, transforming institutional advantages into governance effectiveness; further improving the socialist economic and legal system with Chinese characteristics, safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of the people, maintaining fair competition, incentivizing innovation, and achieving the sharing of reform and development achievements by all the people; further giving play to the positive and active role of the Chinese spirit, rallying the strength of the whole society, uniting as one and working with concerted efforts to achieve national rejuvenation, etc.

其次，人类社会是一个有机体，经济基础、上层建筑对生产力和社会的发展具有巨大反作用，我们要坚持整体论、系统论和协同论思维导向，多角度着力应对和引导世界百年未有之大变局的发展。当下的主要任务有：进一步坚持和加强党的全面领导，充分发挥社会主义制度集中力量办大事的优势；进一步推进国家治理体系和治理能力的现代化，把制度优势转化为治理效能；进一步完善中国特色社会主义经济法律制度，保障人民合法权益、维持公平竞争、激励创新、实现改革发展成果全民共享；进一步发挥中国精神积极能动作用，凝聚全社会力量，众志成城、勠力同心决胜民族复兴等。

Finally, people are the subjective element and the most active factor of productive forces. The masses are the creators of history. The free and comprehensive development of the individual is the ultimate goal of Marxist philosophy. We must always adhere to the people-centered fundamental position, directly confront and resolve the contradiction between the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development, fundamentally maintain the endogenous driving force of China’s sustained development, and maintain and extend the period of strategic opportunity.

最后，人是生产力的主体性要素和最活跃的因素，人民群众是历史的创造者，人的自由而全面发展是马克思主义哲学的终极旨归，我们必须始终坚持以人民为中心的根本立场，直面并化解人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾，在根本上保持我国持续发展的内生动力，保持和延长战略机遇期。

II. The Modality of the Unprecedented Changes Unseen in a Century Is Change Amidst Unchanged Elements

二、世界百年未有之大变局的样态是变中有未变

The modality of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century focuses on diagnosing the current state of these changes. The unprecedented changes unseen in a century first of all imply “change” in the world pattern. The basic task of penetrating the modality of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century is to accurately grasp the “unchanged elements amidst change” from the rich phenomena of “change.”

世界百年未有之大变局的样态侧重诊断世界百年未有之大变局的现状。世界百年未有之大变局首先意味着世界格局的“变”，透视世界百年未有之大变局样态的基本任务是从“变”的丰富现象中准确把脉“变中的未变”。

1. Basic Manifestations of “Change” in the Unprecedented Changes Unseen in a Century

1.世界百年未有之大变局“变”的基本表现

“Change” in the sense of constituting major changes in the world generally refers to the enormous, profound, and far-reaching changes occurring in all aspects of human life, such as world politics, economy, culture, science and technology, military affairs, and diplomacy. General Secretary Xi Jinping provided a basic explanation of the “change” in the current unprecedented changes unseen in a century at the 2018 FOCAC Beijing Summit: “Multipolarity, economic globalization, social informatization, and cultural diversity are deepening. The transformation of the global governance system and the international order is accelerating. Emerging market and developing countries are rising rapidly. The balance of international forces is becoming more balanced... Protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise. Wars, conflicts, terrorist attacks, famines, and epidemics occur one after another. Traditional and non-traditional security issues are intertwined in a complex manner.”

构成世界大变局意义上的“变”一般意指世界政治、经济、文化、科技、军事、外交等人类生活各方面发生巨大、深刻和深远的变化。习近平总书记在2018年中非合作论坛中对当下世界百年未有之大变局的“变”做了基本说明：“世界多极化、经济全球化、社会信息化、文化多样化深入发展，全球治理体系和国际秩序变革加速推进，新兴市场国家和发展中国家快速崛起，国际力量对比更趋均衡……保护主义、单边主义不断抬头，战乱恐袭、饥荒疫情此起彼伏，传统安全和非传统安全问题复杂交织”。

The academic community has discussed the basic manifestations of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century from different perspectives based on General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech. Representative views include: Wang Shaoquan points out that the unprecedented changes unseen in a century are mainly reflected in: a new round of scientific and technological revolution accelerating the reshaping of the world; the continuous development of economic globalization promoting changes in global governance; the steady advancement of world multipolarity making international forces tend toward balance; strategic games among major powers driving profound changes in the international system; and exchanges and mutual learning among civilizations strengthening world diversity. Jin Canrong believes that the unprecedented changes unseen in a century are reflected in: a new pattern, where the original Western-dominated pattern is being replaced by a relatively balanced pattern between East and West; a new model, where the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics provides a development model for a new type of social system; a new industrial revolution, where the fourth scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution are approaching; and new global issues, where global problems such as cybersecurity, the virtual economy, and climate change are increasingly prominent. Teng Wensheng emphasizes that one basic manifestation of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century is that the world socialist cause, represented by socialism with Chinese characteristics, is opening up new paths and new prospects for development. Quan Heng emphasizes that the unprecedented changes unseen in a century are also manifested in: the rise of a new round of trade protectionism and “anti-globalization” ideological trends; the reconstruction of global value chains and new changes in the international division of labor; and the reconstruction of global investment and trade rules and new changes in the economic and trade order. As a phenomenon, “change” itself is rich and diverse. Regarding the basic manifestations of “change” in the unprecedented changes unseen in a century, although the academic discussions have different emphases, they all fall within the category of “change” in the unprecedented changes unseen in a century and have formed some basic consensus. For example, the unprecedented changes unseen in a century are mainly reflected in the collective rise of emerging market and developing countries, changes in the structure of international power, adjustments in the international order, changes in global governance, progress in science and technology, and transformations in the mode of human civilization exchange. The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is an important component of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century, and the balance of power between China and the United States and Sino-US relations are key influencing factors in the changes in the world pattern, etc.

学界围绕习近平总书记重要讲话从不同视角探讨了世界百年未有之大变局的基本表现，其中比较有代表性的观点有：王少泉指出，世界百年未有之大变局主要体现为：新一轮科技革命加快重塑世界步伐，经济全球化持续发展推进全球治理变革，世界多极化稳步推进使国际力量趋向平衡，大国战略博弈推动国际体系深刻变革，文明交流互鉴强化世界多元。金灿荣认为，世界百年未有之大变局体现为：新格局，原有的西方主导格局正被东西方相对平衡格局所取代；新模式，中国特色社会主义道路提供了一种新型社会制度的发展模式；新工业革命，第四次科技革命和产业革命正在来临；新全球问题，网络安全、虚拟经济、气候变化等全球问题日益凸显。滕文生强调，世界百年未有之大变局的一个基本表现是以中国特色社会主义为代表的世界社会主义事业开创发展新道路和新局面。权衡强调，世界百年未有之大变局还表现为：新一轮贸易保护主义和“逆全球化”思潮的兴起；全球价值链重构，国际分工体系发生新变化；全球投资贸易规则重构，经贸秩序发生新变化。“变”作为现象本身具有丰富多样性，关于世界百年未有之大变局中“变”的基本表现，虽然学界论述的侧重点有所不同，但都属于世界百年未有之大变局“变”的范畴，且形成一些基本共识，如世界百年未有之大变局主要体现在新兴市场国家和发展中国家群体性崛起，国际权力结构的变革、国际秩序的调整、全球治理的变化、科技的进步、人类文明交往模式的转变；中华民族伟大复兴是世界百年未有之大变局的重要组成部分，中美力量对比和中美关系是世界格局变化的关键影响因子等。

2. Main Content of the “Unchanged Elements Amidst Change” in the Unprecedented Changes Unseen in a Century

2.世界百年未有之大变局“变中未变”的主要内容

Dialectical materialism and historical materialism hold that the development of things is an organic unity of continuity and discontinuity, and that changes in various factors of human history need to accumulate to a certain degree before a fundamental qualitative change can occur. At the same time, the historical process of human society is a unity of regularity and purposefulness. Compared with the natural world, the development of human society is more complex, and therefore the completion of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world will be a relatively long-term process. Throughout the entire course of its evolution, change and non-change are organically unified. To comprehensively grasp the configuration of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world, we need to pay attention to what has "changed," and even more so, we need to accurately diagnose what has "not changed" through the rich and diverse phenomena of "change." The "non-change" within the "change" of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world is rich in connotation; "unchanged value goal pursuits," "unchanged development trends," and "elements that may undergo qualitative change in the future but are currently in quantitative change" are all part of its proper meaning. The extension of the "non-change" within the "change" of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world is also reflected in multiple aspects, including both the non-change of structural elements and the non-change of processual elements; it includes both non-change with the significance of opportunity and non-change with the significance of challenge. Scientifically grasping the opportunities and challenges of "non-change within change" in the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world is of extremely important guiding significance for us to correctly position our strategy.

辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义认为，事物发展是连续性和间断性的有机统一，人类历史各因素的变化需要积累到一定程度才能发生根本性质变。同时，人类社会历史过程是合规律性和合目的性的统一，相对于自然界，人类社会发展更具有复杂性，因而世界百年未有之大变局的完成将是一个较长期的过程，在其演变的整个进程中，变和未变有机统一。全面把握世界百年未有之大变局的样态需要我们关注到“变”的是什么，更需要我们透过丰富多样“变”的现象准确诊断“未变”的是什么。世界百年未有之大变局“变”中的“未变”内涵丰富，“不变的价值目标追求”“未变的发展态势”“未来可能质变但现在处于量变的要素”等都是其应有之义。世界百年未有之大变局的“变”中的“未变”外延也体现在多个方面，既包括结构性要素的未变，也包括进程性要素的未变；既有机遇意义的未变，也有挑战意义的未变。科学把握世界百年未有之大变局“变中未变”的机遇与挑战，对我们正确进行战略定位具有极其重要的指导意义。

First, the "non-change within change" with the significance of opportunity in the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world is mainly reflected in the evolving trend of the world pattern. Although new global issues arise one after another, and unilateralism, protectionism, isolationism, and de-globalization are on the rise, the main tone of world openness, inclusiveness, and mutual learning has not changed, the major trend of interconnection and interdependence has not changed, and the main theme of peace, development, cooperation, and mutual benefit has not changed. General Secretary Xi Jinping has explained the non-change within change in the world development trend, emphasizing that it is necessary to see that the trend of world multipolarity advancing will not change, the process of economic globalization will not change, the epochal theme of peace and development will not change, the direction of change in the international order will not change, and the overall trend of prosperity and stability in the Asia-Pacific region will not change, among others. In the face of these non-changes and great changes, we must maintain strategic composure. In this regard, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "No matter how the international situation changes, China's confidence and determination to safeguard national sovereignty and security will not change, and China's sincerity and goodwill to uphold world peace and promote common development will not change."

其一，世界百年未有之大变局具有机遇意义的“变中未变”主要体现在世界格局演变态势方面。虽然新的全球问题此起彼伏，单边主义、保护主义、孤立主义和逆全球化抬头；但世界开放包容、多元互鉴的主基调没有变，相互联系、相互依存的大潮流没有变，和平、发展、合作、共赢的主旋律没有变。习近平总书记曾就世界发展态势的变中未变做了说明，强调要看到世界多极化向前推进的态势不会改变，经济全球化进程不会改变，和平与发展的时代主题不会改变，国际秩序变革方向不会改变，亚太地区总体繁荣稳定的态势不会改变等。在这些未变和大变面前，我们要保持战略定力，对此，习近平总书记指出：“无论国际风云如何变幻，中国维护国家主权和安全的信心和决心不会变，中国维护世界和平、促进共同发展的诚意和善意不会变。”

Second, the "non-change within change" with the significance of challenge in the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world is mainly reflected in the processual elements of the evolution of the world pattern. First, in terms of the balance of international forces, although the total economic output of developing countries has maintained rapid growth in recent decades and a multipolar economic pattern has emerged, "the dominant position of Western developed countries in economy, science and technology, politics, and military affairs has not yet changed." Second, in terms of the socialist movement, although the great achievements of socialism with Chinese characteristics have once again imbued scientific socialism with strong vitality, and new changes have emerged in the balance of forces between world socialism and capitalism, and the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world have expanded new space for the development of the world socialist movement, "it has also increased uncertainties for the transformation of some communist parties and left-wing forces, making it difficult to change the pattern of 'strong capitalism and weak socialism' in the short term." Third, in terms of the Western alliance camp, "the US-led alliance system of the United States, Japan, and Europe is the fundamental reason for the West's central position in the global structure of power." Although there have been serious conflicts of interest and splits within the US-Japan-Europe alliance system since the end of the US-Soviet Cold War, it has not truly disintegrated, and its alliance relationships, especially political and military alliance relationships, have not undergone fundamental changes. Finally, in terms of the key variable of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world, namely the comparison of national power between China and the United States, although China has become the world's second-largest economy since 2010, the country contributing the most to global economic growth and the "locomotive" driving global growth, with "its international influence significantly enhanced, increasingly moving toward the center of the world stage... China has become a decisive factor in the changes in the world pattern," the report of the 19th National Congress of the CPC [n12] clearly stated that the basic national condition that China is still in and will long remain in the primary stage of socialism has not fundamentally changed, and China's international status as the world's largest developing country has not fundamentally changed. At the same time, the United States remains the most powerful developed country in the world and is still progressing, which has not fundamentally changed.

其二，世界百年未有之大变局具有挑战意义的“变中未变”主要体现在世界格局演变进程性要素方面。首先，就国际力量对比而言，虽然近几十年发展中国家经济总量一直保持高速增长，经济多极格局显现，但当前“西方发达国家在经济、科技、政治、军事上的优势地位尚未改变”。其次，就社会主义运动而言，虽然中国特色社会主义巨大成就使科学社会主义再次焕发出强大的生机活力，世界社会主义和资本主义力量对比出现新变化，世界百年未有之大变局拓展了世界社会主义运动发展的新空间，但“也给一些共产党和左翼力量变革增加了不确定性因素，短期内难以改变‘资强社弱’格局”。再次，就西方同盟阵营而言，“美国所主导的美日欧同盟体系是西方在全球力量结构中处于中心地位的根本原因”，虽然美苏冷战结束后美日欧同盟体系内部时有严重利益冲突并出现分裂，但并没有真正分化瓦解，其盟友关系，特别是政治军事同盟关系并没有发生根本变化。最后，就世界百年未有之大变局的关键变量，即中美国力对比而言，虽然中国自2010年成为世界第二大经济实体，成为全球经济增长贡献最大的国家和拉动全球增长的“火车头”，“国际影响力明显增强，日益走近世界舞台中央……中国已经成为世界格局变化中的一个决定性因素”，但党的十九大报告明确提出，我国仍处于并将长期处于社会主义初级阶段的基本国情没有发生根本变化，我国仍是世界最大发展中国家的国际地位没有发生根本变化。与此同时，美国依然是全球最强大的发达国家且依然在进步没有发生根本变化。

Regarding the non-change within change in the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world, a diagnosis of great significance for China's current strategic positioning is that the gap in comprehensive national power between China and the United States remains the gap between the largest developing country and the largest developed country, and this has not fundamentally changed. We can select quantitative analyses of three representative aspects—"manufacturing," "modern service industry," and "comparison of comprehensive national power between China and the United States"—to focus on elucidating the "non-change within change" of the key variable in the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world.

关于世界百年未有之大变局变中的未变，对当前中国战略定位极具意义的诊断是，中美综合国力的差距依然是最大的发展中国家和最大的发达国家之间的差距，这没有发生根本变化。我们可以分别选取“制造业”“现代服务业”“中美综合国力比较”三个代表性方面的定量分析等来集中阐明世界百年未有之大变局关键变量“变中的未变”。

As is well known, China's manufacturing industry has achieved remarkable accomplishments since reform and opening up over 40 years ago: since 2010, China has been the world's largest manufacturing country for 11 consecutive years. China's high-tech manufacturing industry is currently developing well, with major breakthroughs in manned spaceflight, lunar exploration projects, manned deep-sea submersibles, and high-speed railways. New technologies, new products, and new models such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing, and blockchain continue to emerge, and a number of technologies have entered the first echelon of the international market. However, as Miao Wei emphasized in 2015, "the first echelon of global manufacturing is the global science and technology innovation center led by the United States" and "China is currently in the third echelon." [n13] In addition, according to a 2018 survey by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on more than 130 key basic materials from over 30 large Chinese enterprises, "32% of key materials are still blank in China, 52% rely on imports, and the vast majority of general-purpose processors for computers and servers, 95% of high-end specialized chips, over 70% of smart terminal processors, and the vast majority of memory chips rely on imports. In the equipment manufacturing sector, over 95% of manufacturing and testing equipment for high-end CNC machine tools, high-end equipment and instruments, launch vehicles, large aircraft, aero engines, automobiles, and other key component precision machining production lines rely on imports." Besides manufacturing, the development of the service industry is an important indicator of a country's economic and social development level and modernization level. Although the proportion of China's service industry in GDP has been increasing since reform and opening up, according to statistics, as of 2018, the international gap in labor productivity in China's service industry compared to high-income countries was 1:5.5. In terms of the comparison of comprehensive national power between China and the United States, according to statistics, as of 2017, most indicators of comprehensive national power between China and the United States differed by more than four times, with US labor productivity being 12 times that of China, and the number of top US scientists being 9 times that of China; in 2020, US per capita GDP was 6 times that of China. The above data fully demonstrate that the gap in comprehensive national power between China and the United States remains the gap between the largest developing country and the largest developed country.

众所周知，我国改革开放40多年来制造业发展取得了举世瞩目的成就：自2010年中国连续11年居世界第一制造业大国，中国当前高技术制造业发展势头良好，在载人航天、探月工程、载人深潜、高速铁路等方面取得了重大突破，人工智能、物联网、大数据、云计算、区块链等新技术、新产品、新模式不断涌现，一批技术已经进入国际市场的第一方阵。但如苗圩2015年所强调的，“全球制造业第一梯队是以美国为主导的全球科技创新中心”“中国现在处于第三梯队”。另外，据2018年工信部对中国30多家大型企业130多种关键基础材料调研结果表明，“32%的关键材料在中国仍为空白，52%依赖进口，绝大多数计算机和服务器通用处理器95%的高端专用芯片，70%以上智能终端处理器以及绝大多数存储芯片依赖进口。在装备制造领域，高档数控机床、高档装备仪器、运载火箭、大飞机、航空发动机、汽车等关键件精加工生产线上逾95%制造及检测设备依赖进口”。除了制造业，当今世界服务业发展是衡量一个国家经济社会发展水平和现代化水平的重要标志。虽然我国自改革开放以来服务业占国民生产总值比例不断提高，但据统计，截至2018年，我国服务业劳动生产率与高收入国家的国际差距是1∶5.5。就中美综合国力对比而言，据统计，截至2017年，中美综合国力多数指标相差4倍以上，其中美国的劳动生产率是中国的12倍，美国顶尖科学家的数量是中国的9倍；2020年美国人均GDP是中国的6倍。以上数据充分说明，中美综合国力的差距依然是最大发展中国家与最大发达国家的差距。

The unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world contain non-change within change—this is the true nature of the configuration of these changes. However, there is currently an undercurrent of subjective theory of arbitrary change surging among the public. The subjective reason for this phenomenon lies in some inherent cognitive habits: in the structure of human consciousness, "change" is an active, vivid, and novel phenomenon, while "non-change" is a relatively static, rigid, and inert phenomenon; thus, "change" always captures people's attention more easily than "non-change." Additionally, people generally have a psychological tendency to maintain a positive self-image. Faced with the complex and surging flow of information from the outside world, people are always more inclined to pay attention to, select, integrate, and process information fragments that align with their own assumptions. This leads to the widespread perception and recognition of the "change" in the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world among the public, while the "non-change" in these changes is often overlooked.

世界百年未有之大变局变中有未变，这是世界百年未有之大变局样态的本相，但当下民众中涌动着一股主观臆变论暗流。造成这一现象的主观原因是一些固有的认识习性：在人的意识结构中，“变”是活跃的、生动的、新颖的现象，“未变”是相对静止的、僵化的、惰性的现象，因而“变”总是比“未变”更容易捕获人的注意力。另外，人普遍具有维护自我积极形象的心理倾向，面对外界错综交织涌动不息的信息流，人们总是更乐于关注、选取、整合和加工符合自我设想的信息片段。这导致当下世界百年未有之大变局之“变”广为民众所感知和认同，相对而言，世界百年未有之大变局之“未变”则经常被人忽视。

Moreover, in order to cater to the psychological needs of the audience and thus attract more attention, the media circles are keen on one-sided reporting of social problems in the West, especially the United States, leading many people to develop illusions about the unprecedented changes in a century in the world, mistakenly believing that the Western developed capitalist countries represented by the United States have already moved toward absolute decline and that China has surpassed the United States in many respects. This view is common in various narratives that decry the decline of the West and the United States. This one-sided perspective of "seeing only the change but not what has not changed" easily slides into subjective speculation about change in the cognitive domain, that is, replacing objective actual changes with subjective imagined changes based on individual interests, preferences, and desires.

不仅如此，为迎合受众的心理需求从而博取更多关注，媒体界热衷片面报道西方，特别是美国的社会问题，导致不少民众对世界百年未有之大变局产生幻觉，误以为以美国为代表的西方发达资本主义国家已经走向绝对衰落，中国在很多方面已经超过美国，这种观点常见于各种唱衰西方、唱衰美国论调之中。这种“只见其变不见其未变”的片面观点在认知领域容易滑向主观臆变论，即基于个人的利益需求、偏好和愿望，用个人主观臆想的变化代替客观实际的变化。

3. Grasping the unprecedented changes in a century in the world must adhere to the principle of the unity of "change" and "non-change"

3.把握世界百年未有之大变局必须坚持“变”与“未变”相统一的原则

Accurately grasping the pattern of the unprecedented changes in a century in the world requires us to adhere to the principle of the unity of "change" and "non-change" in the developmental pattern of these unprecedented changes. The "change" in the unprecedented changes in a century in the world is the perceptual manifestation and factual confirmation of the basic laws of the development of human society in the objective world. Seeing "change" enlightens us to further enhance strategic confidence, firmly uphold the "Four Confidences" [14]14 The Thucydides Trap is a term popularized by political scientist Graham Allison, referring to the tendency for conflict when a rising power threatens to displace an established great power, drawing on the ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ account of the Peloponnesian War., and eradicate the servile disease of fearing, kneeling to, and deifying the United States. Facing the sacred mission of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, we must dare to explore, be brave in innovation, and dare to achieve victory; facing the many difficulties of global governance, we must actively participate in, shape, and lead the new international order, striving to contribute more Chinese wisdom, Chinese solutions, and Chinese strength to the progress of human affairs. Seeing the "non-change" within the "change" enlightens us that, no matter how the external environment changes and how the world is in turmoil, we must identify our own historical position for development, maintain strategic resolve, enhance strategic patience, concentrate our strength on doing our own work well, guard against self-inflation, and prevent the childish disease of belittling, separating from, and discarding the United States. Its core essence is to maintain an objective and rational attitude toward the "unchanged within the change" of the unprecedented changes in a century in the world, return to the dialectical materialist principle of the material unity of the world, and adhere to strategic positioning based on proceeding from reality in everything.

准确把握世界百年未有之大变局的样态要求我们坚持世界百年未有之大变局发展样态中“变”和“未变”相统一的原则。世界百年未有之大变局的“变”是人类社会发展基本规律在客观世界领域的感性显现和事实确证，看到“变”，启示我们要进一步增强战略信心，坚定“四个自信”，根治恐美、跪美、神化美国的奴性病。面对中华民族伟大复兴的神圣使命，我们要敢于探索，勇于创新，敢于胜利；面对全球治理诸多困境，我们要积极参与、塑造和引领国际新秩序，力争为人类事业进步贡献更多中国智慧、中国方案和中国力量。看到“变”中的“未变”启示我们，无论外部环境如何变化和世界如何动荡，我们都要找准自己发展的历史方位，保持战略定力，增强战略耐心，集中力量专心做好自己的事情，警惕自我膨胀，防止轻美、离美、去美的幼稚病。其核心要义是对世界百年未有之大变局的“变中未变”保持客观理性的态度，回归辩证唯物主义世界物质统一性原理，坚持一切从实际出发进行战略定位。

At present, accurately grasping the pattern of the unprecedented changes in a century in the world requires guarding against subjective speculation about change. On the one hand, we must deeply comprehend the "two have not changed" [15]15 “Killed by praise” (捧杀) is a Chinese idiom meaning to ruin someone by excessive flattery or overpraising, leading to complacency, overreach, or unrealistic expectations. emphasized in the report of the 19th National Congress of the CPC and General Secretary Xi Jinping

当下准确把握世界百年未有之大变局的样态需要防范主观臆变论。一方面，我们要深刻领悟党的十九大报告所强调的“两个没有变”和习近平总书记向全党发出的告诫：“中华民族伟大复兴，绝不是轻轻松松、敲锣打鼓就能实现的。全党必须准备付出更为艰巨、更为艰苦的努力。”

We must be psychologically prepared to fight hard battles and protracted battles, continue to keep our feet on the ground and work hard, and lay a more solid foundation in material technology, institutions, and culture for China’s leap from a developing country to a developed country. This is the prerequisite and foundation for scientifically responding to changes and proactively seeking change. On the other hand, historical materialism holds that the development of human society is the unity of conformity to law and conformity to purpose. “Strategic choices in great-power competition are the key factor determining the rise and fall of nations amid the ‘unprecedented changes unseen in a century.’” In the decisive period of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, we must keep a cool head and make rational choices on the basis of respecting the laws of historical development and accurately positioning ourselves.

做好打硬仗和打持久仗的心理准备，继续坚持脚踏实地，埋头苦干，为中国从发展中国家向发达国家的跃迁奠定更加坚实的物质技术、制度和文化基础。这是科学应变和主动求变的前提与基础。另一方面，历史唯物主义主张，人类社会的发展是合规律性与合目的性的统一。“大国竞争中的战略选择是决定‘百年未有之大变局’中的国家胜负起伏的关键因素”，在中华民族伟大复兴的决胜期，我们要保持头脑冷静，在尊重历史发展规律和准确定位自我的基础上进行合理抉择。

First, isolation inevitably leads to backwardness, while openness is the only path to development and progress. Rationally drawing on and absorbing all outstanding achievements of human civilization is one of the basic experiences underlying the great achievements of China’s reform and opening up. In today’s world, “innovation resources are increasingly and obviously breaking through the boundaries of organizations, regions, and nations, showing a trend of free flow on a global scale.” No country can solve all innovation problems by relying solely on its own strength. Faced with the United States’ encirclement and suppression of China’s core technologies, and its artificial “wall-building” and “decoupling,” we must not act impulsively and lightly talk about leaving or decoupling from the United States. On the contrary, we must firmly implement a comprehensive strategy of opening up, go global in multiple dimensions, and advance independent technological innovation on a higher platform. At the same time, we must make full use of both domestic and international markets and resources, promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, and create a new dynamic of international cooperation and competition through higher-level opening up.

首先，封闭必然落后，开放是发展进步的必由之路。合理借鉴吸收人类文明一切优秀成果是我国改革开放取得巨大成就的基本经验之一。当今世界“创新资源越来越明显地突破组织、地域、国家的界限，表现出在全球范围内自由流动的趋势”，任何国家都不可能仅依靠自身力量就解决所有创新难题，面对美国对我国核心科技的围堵、打压，人为的“筑墙”“脱钩”，我们不能意气用事，轻言离美、去美。相反，我们要坚定执行全面对外开放战略，多维度走出去，在更高平台上推进科技自主创新；同时，我们要充分利用国内国际两个市场两种资源，推动贸易和投资自由化、便利化，以更高水平开放来打造国际合作和竞争新态势。

Second, in the face of international relations conflicts triggered by fierce strategic competition among the world’s major powers, we must have bottom-line thinking. When it comes to the core interests of the country, we must dare to strike out, resolutely defend, resolutely struggle, and yield not an inch. But we must also combine struggle with unity, unswervingly follow the path of peaceful development, uphold the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, advocate resolving international disputes through equal consultation, avoid entering a new Cold War, and avoid falling into the Thucydides Trap [14]14 The Thucydides Trap is a term popularized by political scientist Graham Allison, referring to the tendency for conflict when a rising power threatens to displace an established great power, drawing on the ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ account of the Peloponnesian War.. In response to the global governance deficit, development deficit, and peace deficit, we must bear the mission and responsibility of a major country and actively make a difference. But we must also face squarely the objective fact that China is still the largest developing country, fulfill international obligations within our capacity, avoid overstretching ourselves, and avoid being killed by praise [15]15 “Killed by praise” (捧杀) is a Chinese idiom meaning to ruin someone by excessive flattery or overpraising, leading to complacency, overreach, or unrealistic expectations..

其次，面对世界大国激烈战略竞争所引发的国际关系冲突，我们要有底线思维，涉及国家的核心利益，要敢于出击，坚决维护，坚决斗争，寸步不让；但我们也要将斗争性与同一性结合起来，坚定不移走和平发展道路，秉持共商共建共享原则，倡导通过平等协商解决国际争端，避免进入新冷战，避免掉进修昔底德陷阱。针对全球治理赤字、发展赤字与和平赤字，我们要有大国使命担当，积极有所作为，但我们也要直面中国依然是最大发展中国家这一客观事实，履行国际义务要量力而为，避免透支，避免被捧杀。

Finally, in the face of the urgency of global governance reform, we must uphold the international system with the United Nations at its core and the international order based on international law, promote the building of a new type of international relations featuring mutual respect, fairness, justice, and win-win cooperation, develop friendly and cooperative relations with all countries in the world, focus on building a community with a shared future for neighboring countries and a community with a shared future for mankind, and avoid making enemies on all sides.

最后，面对全球治理变革的迫切性，我们要维护以联合国为核心的国际体系，以国际法为基础的国际秩序，推动建设相互尊重、公平正义、合作共赢的新型国际关系，发展同世界各国的友好合作关系，着力打造周边国家命运共同体和人类命运共同体，避免四面树敌。

III. The Development Trend of the Unprecedented Changes Unseen in a Century in the World: Certainty within Uncertainty

三、世界百年未有之大变局的发展趋势是确定性中有不确定性

The development trend of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world focuses on predicting the future direction of these changes. Historical materialism holds that the process of human social development has regularity; at the same time, humans are social beings with conscious initiative, capable of understanding and applying the laws of social development, predicting and thereby planning the future — this is a fundamental marker distinguishing humans from animals. The most important task of accurately recognizing changes at present is to predict the development trend of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world based on its origins and manifestations, thereby laying an epistemological foundation for formulating reasonable response strategies and guiding plans. According to materialist dialectics, the development of the world is the unity of necessity and contingency; at the same time, the cognitive ability of people in a given era is always limited. People habitually regard what they have already recognized, including both the stable, essential connections and the non-essential connections of things, as certain, while regarding unknown essential connections and hard-to-grasp non-essential connections as uncertain. The unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world are not only a period of great transition, great adjustment, and great development in the objective process of human history, but also an important judgment we have made about this specific stage. Influenced by both subjective and objective factors, its development trend presents itself as an organic unity of certainty and uncertainty at both the ontological and epistemological levels.

世界百年未有之大变局的发展趋势侧重预测世界百年未有之大变局的未来走向。历史唯物主义主张，人类社会发展进程具有规律性；同时，人是具有自觉能动性的社会存在物，人可以认识、运用社会发展规律，预测并进而规划未来，这是人和动物相区分的一个根本标志。当下准确识变的最重要任务是根据世界百年未有之大变局的由来、样态，预测世界百年未有之大变局的发展趋势，从而为制定合理的应对方略和引导规划奠定认识论基础。根据唯物辩证法，世界的发展是必然性和偶然性的统一；同时，特定时代人的认识能力总是有限的。人们习惯把已经认识到的，包括事物稳定的、本质的联系和非本质联系都视作确定的，而把未知的本质联系和难以把握的非本质联系都视作不确定的。世界百年未有之大变局既是人类历史客观进程中的大转折大调整大发展阶段，也是我们对这一特定阶段所作出的重要论断，受主客观两方面因素的影响，其发展趋势在本体论和认识论层面都呈现为确定性和不确定性的有机统一。

1. The Certainty of the Development Trend of the Unprecedented Changes Unseen in a Century in the World

1.世界百年未有之大变局发展趋势的确定性

Seeking certainty is an innate endowment of human beings. “Whether for scientific research or religious belief, or for daily life, without the search for and grasp of certainty and essence, people would lose the most basic benchmarks, references, or goals.” Traditional philosophy, social science, and natural science are mostly a paradigm of “certainty” research, that is, attempting to provide people with a safe and reliable support and guarantee deep in their hearts by grasping universal and necessary truths, and to provide an epistemological commitment for people to grasp the contradictory relationships between humans and nature, humans and society, and humans and themselves, and to maintain social order and benign operation.

寻求确定性是人的先天禀赋，“无论是对于科学研究还是宗教信仰，抑或是对于日常生活来说，没有对确定性与本质的寻求和把握，人们就会失去起码的基准、参照或目标”，传统哲学、社会科学、自然科学大多是一种“确定性”研究范式，即试图通过把握普遍必然性真理使人获得内心深处安全、可靠的依托和保证，为人们把握人与自然、人与社会、人与自身矛盾关系，维持社会秩序和良性运转提供认识论承诺。

At present, academic circles both at home and abroad have engaged in heated discussions on the development trends of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world, especially the certainty of the future direction of its key variable, namely Sino-US relations, and have reached some consensus. Scholars generally maintain that the trends toward multipolarity, equilibrium, democratization, and law-based governance in the world, the interactive dynamics of equality, mutual benefit, cooperation, and win-win among nations, and the deepening of economic globalization are unstoppable. Regarding the future dynamics of Sino-US competition, it is argued that “in the coming period, the difficulty of coordinating the interests of both sides will continue to rise, and contradictions at the institutional level between the two countries will further intensify,” that “the United States will never easily tolerate China’s rise and surpassing, and China will never give up its right and opportunity for development, so trade competition, technological competition, and even comprehensive national power competition between China and the US will inevitably be a long-term process,” and that “US development requires reliance on China’s huge potential market, while China’s development requires learning from US advanced technology,” among other points. The academic predictions of the development trends of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world are undoubtedly scientific and enlightening, but they remain at the level of stage-specific and concrete judgments and inferences; only with the telescope of historical materialism can one see more deeply.

当下国内外学界对世界百年未有之大变局发展趋势，特别是其关键变量即中美关系未来走向的确定性进行了热烈探讨，并形成某些共识。学界普遍主张，世界的多极化、均衡化、民主化、法治化发展态势，各国平等互利、合作共赢互动态势，经济全球化进程加深态势等不可阻挡。就中美未来博弈态势而言，“未来一个时期，双方利益协调难度将会持续上升，两国体制层面矛盾将进一步凸显”，“美国绝不会轻易容忍中国的崛起与超越，中国绝不会放弃发展的权利与机遇，中美贸易竞争、科技竞争乃至综合国力的竞争必将是一个长期的过程”。“美国发展需要依赖中国巨大的潜在市场，中国发展需要学习美国先进的技术”等。学界对世界百年未有之大变局的发展趋势的预测无疑具有其科学性和启发性，但仅停留于阶段性、具象性的判断和推理，需要借助历史唯物主义望远镜方能看得更深远。

Historical materialism holds that the necessity (certainty) of the development of human history is mainly manifested in its overall trends. Consistent with the origins and patterns of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world, and governed by the laws governing the operation of the basic contradictions of human society, over a longer period, the certainty of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world should manifest as the overall development trend of the gradual decline of the West and the gradual rise of emerging market economies and developing countries. This certainty depicts the possibility space and long-term trends of the complex competition and cooperation between countries, especially between China and the US, with the horizontal axis running through it being the objective laws governing the operation of the basic contradictions of human society.

历史唯物主义主张，人类历史发展的必然性（确定性）主要体现在其总体趋势中。与世界百年未有之大变局的由来和样态相一致，受人类社会基本矛盾运行规律的支配，从较长时期来看，世界百年未有之大变局的确定性应该表现为西方逐渐走向衰落而新兴市场国家和发展中国家逐渐崛起这一总体的发展趋势。这一确定性所描绘的是世界各国，特别是中美之间竞争合作并存的复杂博弈的可能性空间和长远趋势，贯穿于其中的横轴是人类社会基本矛盾运行的客观规律。

2. The Uncertainty of the Development Trends of the Unprecedented Changes Unseen in a Century in the World

2.世界百年未有之大变局发展趋势的不确定性

The overall trend of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world has certainty, but its actual process—that is, the specific events within the possibility space of the activities of various countries, such as the specific fields, focal points, degree, modes of operation, and outcomes of Sino-US competition and cooperation at particular stages—is uncertain in terms of which possibilities will materialize. Uncertainty is an objective fact and prominent feature of modern society; it is rooted in the limitations of human cognitive ability in a given era, as well as in the variability of objective connections themselves. Human historical activities unfold through the interaction of countless wills. Because of “the differences, contradictions, and disorder in the existence, interests, cognition, will, and practical activities of subjects,” compared to the world-in-itself, there are countless subjective and objective contingencies—that is, uncertainty. Marx and Engels vividly depicted the uncertainty of modern society in the *Communist Manifesto*: “All fixed, fast-frozen relations, with their train of ancient and venerable prejudices and opinions, are swept away, all new-formed ones become antiquated before they can ossify. All that is solid melts into air.” This means that the replacement of old relations by new ones is an inevitable trend of development—this is certain—but what new relations replace them and how they do so is uncertain. The rapid changes in science and technology and the accelerated transformation of production modes in modern society have strengthened the uncertainty characteristic of human social development. Currently, the uncertainty of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world is mainly manifested in the following two aspects.

世界百年未有之大变局总体趋势具有确定性，但其现实进程，亦即各国活动可能性空间范围内的具体事件，如特定阶段中美竞争与合作的具体场域、着力点、程度、操作方式、结果等将以何种可能性呈现出来，则具有不确定性。不确定性是现代社会的客观事实和突出特征，它植根于特定时代人的认知能力的局限性，也植根于客观联系本身的可变性。人类历史活动在无数人意志交互作用中展开，由于“主体的存在、利益、认识、意志、实践活动的差异性、矛盾性和无序性”，相对于自在世界，更是具有无数主观和客观的偶然性，也就是说存在不确定性。马克思恩格斯在《共产党宣言》中生动描绘了现代社会的不确定性，“一切固定的僵化的关系以及与之相适应的素被尊崇的观念和见解都被消除了，一切新形成的关系等不到固定下来就陈旧了。一切等级的固定的东西都烟消云散了”。这就是说新的关系代替旧的关系是发展的必然趋势，是确定的，但被什么样的新关系所代替以及如何代替则是不确定的。现代社会科技日新月异和生产方式加速变革强化了人类社会发展的不确定性特征。当前，世界百年未有之大变局的不确定性主要体现在以下两个方面。

First, the outcomes of competition among countries at specific stages of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world are uncertain. Facing the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world, countries as competing subjects will inevitably begin with the certainty of plans and goals aimed at optimizing their own national interests. However, as Engels pointed out, “there is still a very great discrepancy between the intended purpose and the result attained. The unforeseen effects predominate, the uncontrolled forces are far more powerful than those that are planned.” No matter how hard each country tries, it will ultimately end up serving as a manifestation of the basic laws of human social development. The development of human history is the result of the resultant of forces: “the will of each is obstructed by that of every other, and what emerges is something that no one willed.”

其一，世界百年未有之大变局特定阶段世界各国的博弈结果具有不确定性。面对世界百年未有之大变局，世界各国作为竞争主体都必将从本国利益最优化的计划和目标的确定性行为开始，但如恩格斯指出的，“预定的目的和达到的结果之间还总是存在着极大的出入。未能预见的作用占据优势，未能控制的力量比有计划运用的力量强大得多”，无论各国如何努力，最终都会以充当人类社会发展基本规律的表现样式而结束。人类历史发展是合力作用的结果，“任何一个人的愿望都会受到任何另一个人的妨碍，而最后出现的结果就是谁都没有希望过的事物”。

On the one hand, in an accelerating modern society, the metabolism of knowledge, experience, and skills is speeding up. Any first-mover country, even the United States, currently the most powerful in comprehensive national strength, cannot ensure its leading position by relying solely on the accumulation of knowledge, experience, and skills. Whether the US can maintain its dominant position in the coming decades depends critically on whether it can sustain its leading pace in technological innovation. Technological development, however, cannot be separated from the coordinated support and construction of subjective and objective factors. The US is currently mired in a systemic institutional crisis. Facing the upcoming fourth scientific and technological revolution, whether the US can seize the opportunity and continue to maintain its leading pace in technological innovation is uncertain.

一方面，在加速发展的现代社会中，知识经验技能的新陈代谢加快，任何先发国家，即使是目前世界综合国力最强大的美国，单纯依赖知识经验技能的积累并不能确保其领先地位，美国在未来几十年中能否保持其优势地位关键取决于它能否继续保持其在科技创新上的领跑速度。而科技发展离不开主客观因素的协力支持和建构，时下美国正陷入系统性体制危机中，面对正在来临的第四次科技革命，美国能否抓住机遇，继续保持其科技创新领先速度具有不确定性。

On the other hand, the driving force for the rise of emerging economies so far has mainly come from learning, digesting, and absorbing the advanced achievements of Western civilization. However, the learning-driven development model has its limits; once the process of borrowing and absorption is complete, the driving force disappears. The balance of power in technological competition among major countries will be a key factor influencing the future direction of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world. “The new scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation will be one of the most difficult to control but unavoidable uncertain factors; seizing it is an opportunity, failing to seize it is a challenge.” Whether emerging economies can catch up from behind also depends critically on whether they can seize the opportunity of the upcoming fourth scientific and technological revolution and achieve a faster pace of technological innovation than first-mover countries—that is, realizing the transition from following and running alongside to leading in technology and industry, and achieving a leapfrog development of productive forces. This, too, is uncertain. Although we have never been as close as we are today to achieving and capable of realizing the Chinese Dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and have never made the US feel as challenged by China as it does today, when exactly China will fully catch up with and surpass the US in the future is uncertain; it could be sooner or later. As Mao Zedong pointed out long ago: “Marxists are not fortune-tellers. Regarding future development and change, we should only and can only indicate the general direction; we should not and cannot mechanically stipulate the date.”

另一方面，迄今新兴经济实体的崛起动力主要来自对西方先进文明成果的学习、消化和吸收，但学习驱动型发展方式具有限度，借鉴吸收完毕之日便是动力消失之时，大国之间科技竞争力量对比将是影响世界百年未有之大变局未来走向的关键因素，“新科技革命和产业变革将是最难掌控但必须面对的不确定性因素之一，抓住了就是机遇，抓不住就是挑战”，新兴经济实体能否实现后来居上，关键也取决于能否抓住正在来临的第四次科技革命机遇，具有比先发国家更快的科技创新速度，即实现科技与产业从跟跑、并行到领跑的转换和生产力的跨越式发展，这同样也具有不确定性。虽然我们从来没有像今天这样接近和有能力实现中华民族伟大复兴中国梦，从来没有像今天这样让美国感受到来自中国的挑战，但中国在未来何时全面赶超美国，这具有不确定性，可能早一点也可能迟一点。正如毛泽东早就指出的：“马克思主义者不是算命先生，未来的发展和变化，只应该也只能说出个大的方向，不应该也不可能机械地规定时日。”

Second, in the overall process of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world, opportunities and risks are interdependent, mutually creating and reinforcing each other. The essential connotation of uncertainty is the coexistence of opportunity and risk. “Uncertainty is a collection of paradoxes; it can bring unexpected crises, but it can also, through abnormal changes in things, shake their declining trend and form new growth points; it can also renew the structure and function of things and create new conditions for adapting to the external environment, laying the foundation for the leap of social practice.” Uncertainty means that danger contains opportunity, and opportunity may invite danger; “crisis” and “opportunity” are born together.

其二，世界百年未有之大变局整体进程中机遇与风险相互依存、相互创造和强化。不确定性的本质内涵是机遇与风险并存，“不确定性是一系列悖论的集合，既可能带来意外的危机，也可因事物的异常变故而动揺其衰退态势形成新的生长点，还可更新事物的结构、功能并形成适应外部环境的新条件，为社会实践的飞跃奠定基础”，不确定性意味着危险中蕴含着机会，机会可能招致危险，“危”和“机”相伴而生。

In today’s world, peace and development remain the themes of the era; the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind is deeply rooted in people’s hearts; cooperation and win-win have become an unstoppable historical trend; the new round of scientific, technological, and industrial revolution brings new opportunities for global development, especially for developing countries. However, “the growth momentum of the world economy is insufficient, the gap between rich and poor is increasingly serious, regional hot-spot issues arise one after another, and non-traditional security threats such as terrorism, cyber security, major infectious diseases, and climate change continue to spread”; the deficits in peace, development, governance, and trust are all particularly prominent; the century-old changes and the pandemic of the century are intertwined and superimposed, world uncertainty and instability have risen significantly, and humanity faces many common challenges.

当今世界，和平与发展仍然是时代主题，人类命运共同体理念深入人心，合作、共赢成为不可阻挡的历史潮流，新一轮科技和产业革命给全球发展，特别是发展中国家的发展带来新的机遇。但“世界经济增长动能不足，贫富分化日益严重，地区热点问题此起彼伏，恐怖主义、网络安全、重大传染性疾病、气候变化等非传统安全威胁持续蔓延”；和平赤字、发展赤字、治理赤字、信任赤字都尤为突出；百年变局与世纪疫情交织叠加，世界不确定性不稳定性显著上升，人类面临诸多共同挑战。

For China, socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a New Era. Our country’s institutional advantages are pronounced, its industrial system is complete, its market space is broad, its human resources are abundant, its economic development trend continues to improve, and society has maintained long-term stability. Yet internationally we face fierce great-power competition, a series of challenges including all-round, multi-angle suppression and encirclement by the United States, and an insecure surrounding security environment; domestically we face a series of major challenges: unbalanced and inadequate development, still arduous reform tasks in key areas and crucial links, prominent structural contradictions, innovative capacity that does not meet the demands of high-quality development, large disparities in residents’ income and property, an agricultural foundation that is not yet solid, shortcomings in people’s livelihood guarantees, weaknesses in social governance, a long and heavy task in ecological and environmental protection, an increasingly severe aging population, and Party members and cadres confronting the Four Tests[17]17 The Four Tests (四大考验) refer to the tests of governance, reform and opening up, the market economy, and the external environment, which the CPC identifies as ongoing challenges to its rule. and the Four Dangers.[18]18 The Four Dangers (四大危险) refer to the dangers of spiritual slackening, incompetence, disconnection from the people, and corruption, which the CPC identifies as internal risks to its survival and effectiveness. The opportunities and challenges of the great changes in the world can manifest through various unexpected concrete events and trigger a chain of reactions or butterfly effects, bringing unforeseeable uncertainty to the future development of the great changes in the world.

就中国而言，中国特色社会主义进入新时代，我国制度优势显著，工业体系完整，市场空间广阔，人力资源丰富，经济发展态势持续向好，社会保持长期稳定。但我们国际上面临激烈的大国竞争，美国的全方位多角度打压围堵，周边安全局势不容乐观等系列挑战；国内面临发展不平衡、不充分，重点领域关键环节改革任务仍然艰巨，结构性矛盾依然突出，创新能力不适应高质量发展要求，居民收入和财产差距较大，农业基础还不稳固，民生保障存在短板，社会治理存在弱项，生态环保任重道远，人口老龄化日趋严重，党员干部面临四大考验和四大风险等系列重大挑战。世界大变局的机遇与挑战能通过各种意想不到的具体事件呈现出来，并引发一系列链式反应或蝴蝶效应，将给世界大变局未来发展带来难以预计的不确定性。

The uncertainty of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world has positive significance. Although the uncertainty of these changes provokes anxiety, uncertainty itself is not evil. As Marx pointed out in his doctoral dissertation, the swerve of atoms, i.e., contingency, frees people from the rigid chain of necessary causality and obtains a kind of ontological freedom in perceptual existence. Although the uncertainty of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world brings us severe challenges and major risks, it also brings the freedom of choice and the space for innovation and transformation. Uncertainty constantly subjects the cognition and practice of the Chinese people and even people worldwide to new tests and expansions; old concepts, logics, experiences, and paradigms of global development and governance are constantly questioned and reformed, and the world is thus full of vitality and developmental tension; uncertainty guides us to control present behavior by a shared future destiny rather than past grievances, thereby broadening our vision and making our actions more rational; risk consciousness forces people to cooperate sincerely in seeking new ways to prevent danger, and the progress of national rejuvenation and the cause of human liberation will surely be realized in the rational response to uncertainty. “The uncertainty of the future should not be a reason for our utter despair, because it actually provides humanity with infinite possibilities for exploration: crisis and opportunity coexist, contingency and possibility are together, uncertainty and new hope exist side by side.”

世界百年未有之大变局的不确定性具有积极意义。虽然世界百年未有之大变局的不确定性引发焦虑，但不确定性本身并非恶。正如马克思在其博士论文中指出，原子的偏斜运动，即偶然性，使人摆脱生硬的必然因果链条的束缚，在感性存在中获得一种本体论意义的自由。世界百年未有之大变局的不确定性虽然给我们带来严峻挑战和重大风险，但也带来选择的自由和创新、变革的时空。不确定性使中国乃至全世界人民的认识与实践不断面临新的考验和拓展，旧的全球发展和治理理念、逻辑、经验和范式不断被质疑和革新，世界因此充满生机活力与发展张力；不确定性引导我们用未来的命运与共而不是过去的恩怨控制当下的行为，从而使我们的视野更加开阔，行动更加理性；风险意识迫使人们精诚合作寻求防止危险出现的新思路，民族复兴和人类解放事业的进步必将在合理应对不确定性中得以实现。“未来的不确定性不应该是让我们彻底绝望的理由，因为它实际上也给人类提供了无限探索的可能性：危机与机会共生，偶然性与可能性同在，不确定性与新的希望并存。”

3. Accurately perceiving the development trend of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world requires us to adhere to the principle of unifying the certainty and uncertainty of this development trend.

3.准确透视世界百年未有之大变局的发展趋势要求我们坚持世界百年未有之大变局发展趋势的确定性与不确定性相统一的原则

While enhancing strategic confidence, we must also strengthen our awareness of potential dangers, be prepared for danger in times of peace, and be fully psychologically prepared for the complexity and variability of the external environment for China’s future development, the severity and unpredictability of the risks and challenges we face, and the arduousness, complexity, and tortuousness of the task of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

我们要在增强战略信心同时，增强忧患意识，居安思危，对中国未来发展外部环境的复杂多变性，所面临风险挑战的严峻性、难以预见性，中华民族伟大复兴任务的艰巨性、复杂性、曲折性有充分的心理准备。

On the one hand, because the international community generally predicts that China’s economic aggregate will surpass that of the United States around 2030, some Chinese scholars and citizens currently argue that “if China develops smoothly, over the next 30 years China’s strength in various aspects will continue to approach and even surpass the United States”; moreover, some people, removing the precondition “if development is smooth,” firmly believe that China will surely surpass the United States comprehensively in the next 30 years. On the other hand, many people at home and abroad believe that the gap between China and the United States is huge and that China simply cannot catch up with and surpass the United States comprehensively in about 30 years.

一方面，由于国际社会普遍预测，2030年前后中国经济总量将超过美国，时下部分中国学者和民众主张，“如果中国发展顺利的话，未来30年中国在各方面的实力将不断逼近甚至超越美国”，更有甚者，一部分人去掉“如果发展顺利”这一前提条件，坚信中国未来30年必将全面超过美国。另一方面，国内外也有不少民众认为，中国与美国差距巨大，30年左右中国根本无法全面赶超美国。

These two views seem opposed, but both ignore the uncertainty of real events in the development process of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world, falling into the error of the straight-line view of history. The law of the negation of the negation in dialectical materialism reveals that the development of things is spiral upward and wave-like forward; the process of human social history is the unity of uniformity and diversity, and the development trend of human society is the unity of progressiveness and tortuousness. “The ascending movement of the historical ladder is not a straight line with only advance and no retreat, but has advance and retreat, advances and retreats, twists and turns, only moving in one direction overall.”

这两种观点看似对立，实则都忽视了世界百年未有之大变局发展进程中现实事件的不确定性，走向了历史直线论的误区。唯物辩证法否定之否定规律揭示，事物的发展是螺旋式上升和波浪式前进的，人类社会历史过程是统一性和多样性的统一，人类社会发展趋势是前进性和曲折性的统一。“历史梯级的上升运动也不是直线式的有进无退，而是有进有退，进进退退，弯弯曲曲，只是在总体上看是向一个方向前进罢了。”

The straight-line view of history ignores the possible leaps and twists in the historical development process, logically tending toward mechanical determinism, historical automatism, historical fatalism, and inducing various erroneous behavioral tendencies such as passive inaction and slow response to opportunities and risks.

历史直线论无视历史发展进程可能存在的跳跃性和曲折性，在逻辑上容易导向机械决定论、历史自动论、历史宿命论，并诱发消极不作为、对机遇和风险反应迟钝等各种错误行为倾向。

Accurately grasping the development trend of the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world at present requires guarding against the straight-line view of history. We must deeply comprehend the essential meaning of General Secretary Xi Jinping’s repeated emphasis that the opportunities and risks of these changes coexist, and be soberly aware that “on the road ahead, the risk tests we face will only become more complex, and we may even encounter unimaginable stormy waves.” Compared with the development of a single country, the development of international society is always more complex, and the evolution of the international order has never been smooth sailing. “We must fully estimate the risks and resistance facing the process of world economic development,” “fully estimate the long-term and tortuous nature of the evolution of the international landscape,” “fully estimate the complexity and arduousness of the struggle over international rules,” and “fully estimate the sharpness of international contradictions and struggles.”

当下准确把握世界百年未有之大变局的发展趋势需要防范历史直线论。我们要深刻领悟习近平总书记反复强调世界百年未有之大变局机遇与风险并存的精髓要义，要清醒意识到，“在前进道路上我们面临的风险考验只会越来越复杂，甚至会遇到难以想象的惊涛骇浪”。相对于一国发展，国际社会发展总是更具复杂性，国际秩序的演进也从来都不是一帆风顺的。“我们要充分估计世界经济发展进程面临的风险阻力”“充分估计国际格局发展演变的长期性和曲折性”“充分估计国际规则之争的复杂性和艰巨性”“充分估计国际矛盾和斗争的尖锐性。”

To avoid falling on the threshold of rise just when we are about to become strong but not yet strong, about to rise but not yet risen, we must guard against falling into the straight-line view of history in our thinking, and in practice prevent both blind pessimism and blind optimism, especially being vigilant against the risk of “strategic adventurism” at present. In summary, in the convergence period of the old and new in human history, where destruction and construction proceed side by side, in the critical period determining the fate of the Chinese nation, we must not only continuously strengthen our awareness of opportunity, be adept at seizing important opportunities, and act in accordance with the trend; but also effectively coordinate domestic construction and foreign relations, coordinate national development and national security, continuously improve risk early warning, management, and response mechanisms, especially be highly vigilant against strategic, systemic, and subversive risks, be adept at turning crises into opportunities and going against the trend, cultivating opportunities amid crises and opening up new prospects amid changes.

为了避免在将强未强、将起未起之际倒在崛起的门槛上，我们在思维上要防范跌入历史直线论，在实践中既要防止盲目悲观论，也要防止盲目乐观论，当下尤其要警惕“战略冒进”的风险。概而言之，在人类历史新旧交替、破立并行交汇期，在决定中华民族命运的关键时期，我们既要不断加强机遇意识，善于捕捉重要机遇，顺势而为；也要切实统筹国内建设和对外关系，统筹国家发展和国家安全，不断完善风险预警、管控和应对机制，特别是高度警惕战略性、系统性、颠覆性风险，善于化危为机，逆势而上，在危机中育先机、于变局中开新局。

In short, the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world bring both major strategic opportunities and severe challenges to China. We must respond scientifically and guide them proactively to develop in a direction favorable to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and human progress. Accurately recognizing change is the epistemological foundation for scientific response and proactive pursuit of change. In the origin of these changes, there is necessity within contingency; in their form, there is constancy within change; in their development trend, there is uncertainty within certainty. From this we can deduce that the most essential characteristic of these changes is dialecticality, and thus the key to accurately recognizing change is to “comprehensively” grasp them, and to guard against one-sided understanding that sees only one aspect but not the other. In response to representative one-sided views existing among the public, accurately recognizing change requires guarding against contingent determinism, subjective speculation about change, and the straight-line view of history. The fundamental laws running through and governing the entire development process of these changes are the laws of dialectical movement of the objective world and the laws governing the operation of the basic contradictions of human society. As a specific stage of great historical transition, adjustment, and development, these changes also have their own special laws of development.

总之，世界百年未有之大变局既给中国带来重大战略机遇，也带来严峻挑战，我们必须科学应对和主动引导方能使之向着有利于中华民族伟大复兴和人类进步的方向发展，准确识变是科学应变和主动求变的认识论基础。世界百年未有之大变局的由来偶然性中有必然性，样态变中有未变，发展趋势确定性中有不确定性。由此我们可以推出，世界百年未有之大变局最本质的特征是辩证性，因而准确识变的关键是“全面”把握世界百年未有之大变局，并注意防范只见其一不见其二的片面认识。针对当下民众中存在的有代表性片面观点，准确识变需要防范偶因决定论、主观臆变论和直线历史论。贯穿并支配世界百年未有之大变局整个发展进程的根本规律是客观世界辩证运动规律和人类社会基本矛盾运行规律。世界百年未有之大变局作为人类历史的大转折、大调整和大发展的特定阶段，也有其特殊的发展规律。

In future research, we need to further explore and refine the laws of evolution of the international situation during transitional periods in modern world history and the laws of the rise and fall of great powers, so that we can better draw lessons and experiences and provide more specific guidance for scientific response and proactive pursuit of change. As General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: “Keep in mind the strategic overall situation of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the unprecedented changes unseen in a century in the world, establish a grand view of history, analyze the mechanisms of evolution and explore historical laws from the long river of history, the tide of the times, and global winds and clouds, propose corresponding strategies and tactics, and enhance the systematic, forward-looking, and creative nature of our work.”

在今后的研究中，我们需要进一步发掘、提炼人类历史，特别是近代以来世界转型过渡期国际形势演变规律和大国兴衰成败规律，使我们更好地吸取经验和教训，为科学应变和主动求变提供更具体的指导。正如习近平总书记所指出的：“胸怀中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局，树立大历史观，从历史长河、时代大潮、全球风云中分析演变机理、探究历史规律，提出因应的战略策略，增强工作的系统性、预见性、创造性。”

(The author is a professor and doctoral supervisor at the School of Marxism, Hubei University)

（作者系湖北大学马克思主义学院教授、博士生导师）

Online editor: Tongxin

网络编辑：同心